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Forex Forum Archive for 09/10/2004

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dc fxq 23:58 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I say "let's give the Euro" a chance" and let the whinging be re-directed at the ECB for a change.

I wonder how the tone would change.

Livingston nh 23:45 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
c''mon JV you got an opinion back it up!!

Livingston nh 23:25 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Spen is right - try to provide the opposite

Van jv 23:21 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Arlington Spen 21:05 """"The balance of payments is negligible, national debt and budget deficit are lower that those of major rivals (in relative terms""""""
Doubt this is correct
can anybody confirm, give comparative data

Arlington Spen 23:16 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
i meant "developing countries"

Arlington Spen 23:15 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
aside from being an international reserve currency, the dollar is not entirely useless outside the US. In many third world countries the dollar serves as an unofficial or black market currency, along with the counterfeit dollar.

Livingston nh 22:18 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I don't mean to be flip but the currency world changed over thirty years ago - and until folks start asking to be paid in their own currency or seashells or large rocks with holes in the center, if you take a USD for your widget you are pretty much constrained by what the USD buys here (including our largest export, Treaury bonds)

Livingston nh 22:03 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex - CBs and what they do with USD is pretty irrelevant - the USD is like company scrip - you can only spend it in the company store

Gen dk 21:34 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Arlington Spen 21:05 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex: yes, central banks may fall out of love with the dollar some day. So far the performance of the US economy and the Fed have not given them a good reason. The balance of payments is negligible, national debt and budget deficit are lower that those of major rivals (in relative terms).

Spotforex NY 20:29 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
spen..the euro climb back in late '02 and early '03 was iginited on rumors that Asian CBs were 'diversifying' their reserves.....in fact they ADDED to their dollar reserves. The euro still climbed from par to 1.30 and that uptrend lines remains intact.....

imagine where the dollar would be if they do actually 'diversify' one day...or if oil is a basket price per barrel......

Arlington Spen 20:23 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor
I tend to agree with people who ignore the trade deficit. John Snow and Paul O'Neal actually think that the trade deficit is the result of the enormous investment surplus. Foreigners buy much more American assets than Americans buy foreign assets. Naturally, since the total balance of payments tends to balance, Americans will buy much more foreign goods with the excess dollars.

Countries that have a trade surplus, tend to have an investment deficit or even flight of capital. Look at Japan.

Dallas GEP 19:57 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
OK I am leaving eur/gbp shorts open over weekend. Those will be good for 40-50 pips next week

Ldn 18:58 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
GOLD: December Climbs $3.40 As US Dollar Breaks Support

prague viktor 18:09 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
The large U.S. current account deficit worries some people but not St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole, who said on Friday it was a sign of the country's economic strength.that must give for the usd some sup.

SanFrancisco tg 17:15 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
On Fox, The memos recently "found" which have created the stir that Bush had skipped time in the military are being increasingly seen as fraudulent and a ploy. Font not consistent with military font of the time, and cc: was to the author himself. Market implications are solid, Bush as President effect on the market instead of Kerry is like night and day.

Hong Kong Ahe 17:13 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 13:47 GMT Yippee:They got the spelling wrong...they should have said UNCLEAR not NUCLEAR ! // Irish, your humour cells are active as usual. LOL.

SanFrancisco tg 16:43 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
A lot of job losses recently and looming from union workers who force their own layoff with companies that must freeze wages or not survive. Delta is one this week, and another looms with 30,000 on the block. The companies arent playing around like they once did. In the end I dont think the trend continues much shock value though, and only provides for price fluctuation rather than direction. Too many other counter-balancing effects such as oil settling, and the deficit cooling as projected.

Illinois DB 16:34 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Greetings & Thanks to all FF participants.
I've been lurking here for a while, starting to trade a
mini account, and the forum has been very helpful.
Appreciate all(most!) of the posts, I agree this has been
a good trading week, & hope everyone has a good we.

lnd 16:09 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hi, am going short with a stop at 1.2360. looking for 1.2000 again. gl & gt.

hong kong nt 16:09 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 12:52 GMT September 10, 2004
sometimes the mkt makers are really genius.

I feel as if i were mentally retarded in front of them...

bucharest dan 16:08 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
this was a nice week I guess

romania nick 16:07 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I agree with you viktor

romania nick 16:06 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
salve,dan!
how is your day?

bucharest dan 16:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
salve nick!

prague viktor 16:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
nick ,yes 09/11 is the importent one,just im thinking about the Fed in the last 2 days i dont know if the fed is giving the green light to the mkt to drive the usd down ,IMO there must be a usd rallay befor the 02/11 I think this must help Mr:Bush maybe im dreaming but I hope Im not the only one.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:01 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I think We might see cable at 1.74 next week

Dallas GEP 15:58 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I got out at BE on short usd/chf didn't like it

romania nick 15:50 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
and my opinion is if nothing bad happens in the US,USD will gain strenght again next week

nyc jk 15:44 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
nick - I agree that is a factor and part of the reason.

romania nick 15:41 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I think everybody is selling USD before the week-end which includes september 11....what do u think about it?

prague viktor 15:29 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
i think now its a verydifficult to explain what the mkt actually is and how it works.

Van jv 15:29 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Can, employment falls by 7k, trade surplus narrows

houston ken 15:17 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
$cad support is for real i think that i will consider going long.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:09 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
8060 with trail stop of 50 pips
Entry is 8022 is the best for me
PT at 78

Gen dk 15:05 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Babuyan Isl MGW 15:05 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Within 10 Pips

Whats your sl for your cable?

thnx. gl

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:05 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Aussie short at .7050

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:55 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I am shorting Cable here

ormond beach,FL AG 14:48 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Fed's Pianalto says interest rates can't stay this low
Pianalto says U.S. growing at 'respectable pace'
PIanalto says Aug. jobs report 'mildly encouraging'

Belgrade Knez 14:29 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Toronto YV

this is NY time:

8:00 AM ET : Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich to make introductory remarks at a conference on neighborhood housing, in Washington. No Q&A .


9:30 AM ET : Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer to make introductory remarks at the Dallas Fed's technology conference, in Dallas .


10:30 AM ET : Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto to speak about the U.S. economy at a joint convention of Ohio and Illinois bankers in Santa Ana Pueblo, New Mexico. No Q&A .


12:00 PM ET : St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole to take part in panel discussing global trade, in Clayton, Missouri.


NY Raider19 14:27 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I have Poole at 1600 GMT

Gen dk 14:26 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Toronto YV 14:22 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Are those remain valid ?
14.30 GMT Pianalto on Econ to Bankers
16.45 GMT Snow to National Credit Union Bankers Assos.
17.30 GMT Poole on Global Trade


London ar 14:16 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
by the way, the Euribor markets are coming off from its earlier rally - not quiet sure what's happening

paris jb 14:10 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
CAD testing 12855 area again FWIW

KL KL 14:07 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I think there are a few bottom for eur that need to be retested...1st one at 1.195 2nd 1.175 then 1.165.....if first one cracks not easy to be bullish at that point also 1.24 negates the down trend....BTW I meant 1.2360 not 1.2260. Anyway this is MHO only...I look at charts seems to be turning up short short term but mama hammer waiting long term!! same goes for gbp...waiting now to knock it down at 1.803x...anyway may adjust shorts later at close of ny time if still awake....looking at action now...not very impress...maybe big boys back to catch some little fishes!!

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, McTeer spoke at technology conference ...
Pianalto speaks on the "Economy"
Poole speaks at "Growing Global" conference in 2.5 hours
(Bloomberg)

London ar 14:05 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
FYI: Fed's Pianalto is known to be in general hawkish - so any bearishness in her tone is likely to cause a further slide in the dollar

London ar 14:01 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
raden, where do you think the support of eur/usd is before it rallies again (if it does)?

paris jb 14:00 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
romania nick 13:48 GMT

USD Fed McTeer Speaks in Dallas 13:30
USD Fed Pianalto Spaeks on Economy 14:30



all GMT time

Bahrain Without Any $ 14:00 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys
SHort Cable for next week at 1.8022

SanFrancisco tg 13:55 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Thank you chippie.

Bon Tom 13:55 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 13:51 GMT September 10, 2004: I hope so mate..

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 13:54 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

KL KL 13:51 GMT

Which Bottom?
TIA

nk

LA fxnew 13:53 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Long Live Raden @[email protected]

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I am happy and hope you are happy too about gbp/usd.
sometime I am wrong but some time right.
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:57 GMT September 10, 2004
gbp/usd seem will get 1.7972-1.7992 as the top.
ready?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:28 GMT September 9, 2004
LA fxnew 18:22 GMT September 9, 2004
I mean 1.7972 or 1.7992 (max)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:27 GMT September 9, 2004
LA fxnew 18:22 GMT September 9, 2004
tomorrow ideally get top 1.7992

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:35 GMT September 8, 2004
hello.. I am back
I look gbp/usd about 1.7972-1.7992
move from low 1.7815 or 1.7777
now is on the way to go that low.

KL KL 13:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
come on eur ready to knock you down from 1.2260...will add all the way to 1.23 if you dare ...nuclear or not the economy there is worst than Japan and US...technically I think the bottom need to be tested a few more time anyway!!

london chippie 13:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
New York, September 10: Talk
going around the forex markets includes a rumor of smoke rising from a US nuclear site. With the 3rd anniversary of the terror attacks on the US tomorrow, the market"s psyche is understandably fragile..........

why they even put this up ????

SanFrancisco tg 13:48 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Specifically what are the nuclear rumors please? Thank you.

Spotforex NY 13:48 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
the nuclear news has to do with a GVI member as in 'family'...not weapons...

darn reporters got the story all wrong....again

LOL

romania nick 13:48 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
paris jb// is Fed Pianatto speaking this moment?
thanx and good trades

Chicago Irish 13:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Yippee:They got the spelling wrong...they should have said UNCLEAR not NUCLEAR !

melb MA 13:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR seems to be finding support around 1.2285 lv and res around 1.2300

which will go first?

chatham RD 13:45 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Euro going nuclear on nuclear rumors

NYC YIPPEE 13:45 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
God IFR are so stupid.

dc fxq 13:43 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
12:54 EUR/USD: Rising Sharply On Nuclear Rumors

From IFR

Syd EM 13:41 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
sorry expiry NYCut AUD 0.7000(lge) 14.00gmt

Syd EM 13:40 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
AUD 0.7000(lge) 14.gmt.

paris jb 13:39 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hi traders,

baesd on weekly range , cable should have more room upside than euro for today, so far euro is doing beter

second upside led should be expected anytime now unless

Fed Pianatto said something and reversing the trend

London 13:37 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trade deficit puts some fear into the heart of the currency markets, and its coming at a time when expectations for Fed tightening beyond the next meeting are being called into question Market whispers.

Dallas GEP 13:27 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
sold usd/chf @ 1.2550 stop 1.2580 TP @ 1.2480

London 13:25 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Talk Of US Name Buying Large EURs

Eilat Dophin 13:25 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
MY Guess/ From here, we go on a flag formation on 4 Hours, slowly for the next 6 candels.
Top is close, scalpers knieves are flashing around.

In which case the correction of the last events are at equilibrium...

If I haven't forgotten any:
-Greenie,
-the Fed chic,
-the trade,
-PPI,
-the Terrorism-on-Week-Ends
-and High Winds for You $; But Too High.. Better to get hit by Ivan than by Putin, anyway.)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:24 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd.
caused by broken of 1.2288 I get number as the top at 1.2379.
If follow to buy now is very danger capped by corection wave.
better look for support for buy.

melbourne farmacia 13:19 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Selling Gbp/Usd at 1.8013 if seen today fwiw GT

London 13:18 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP I do agree with you on that

Chicago Irish 13:17 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
London:I hope she was instructed to say what she said,it could set an interesting train in motion but for the moment respecting the massive triangle on daily Euro charts.....Good hunting.

Livingston nh 13:16 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
London - Yellen is stating the standard myth of economists regarding trade/currency

Eilat Dophin 13:15 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I think we have a minute of Silence (read no trade) in twenty minutes.

Not because those victims, in planes or buildings, could have been any of us, while we deserved no punishing whatsoever.

But because those Homos Neandertalis are not yet all dead.

What are those terrorists guys talking about Right or Justice, the Saouidis ones ? They still had real slaved fifty years ago.

OK, this is off topic, but it was because of the Minute...

Dallas GEP 13:15 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Sometimes we spend too much time trying to determine WHY instead of just reacting to what IS!!!! At least I know I do at times,

London 13:14 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish true however one has to wonder why she would make such a statement and if she has been primed ?

Chicago Irish 13:12 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
London agree on Yellen comments.......one caveat....she is not a voting member.

London 13:09 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
The trade deficit narrowed to $50.15 billion in July, but that left it wider than the $50.095 billion average for 2Q pointing to a further negative for GDP in the quarter

Gen dk 13:08 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London 13:07 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hk ab

Fed Governor Janet Yellen said the US Trade Deficit to widen as long as dollar stays at present levels, and there would only be a turnaround in the trade gap if it involves the dollar. Statements by the Fed that imply further dollar declines are a rarity

stop bitching

prague mark 13:07 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
any other data still outstanding for today? - TIA

Budapest Daniel 13:06 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, I've stopped at 1.2250. but I've lost quite a lot of money :(

hk ab 13:05 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hk mom// mind your .7220 long first.

hk mom 13:04 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
LOL
hk ab are you using bc, london and syd as contra indicators?

London 13:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Euro now through 1.2265 the 200-day MA. Dailies
bullish aiming at the high 1.2325 next level

hk ab 13:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
btw, added 1.2292.

hk ab 13:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
sam//, imvho, I don't see sinking USD is helping those fig. at all. I only see a sharp cut in US expense can help that deficit. To do so, hike is the resort.

If sinking usd helps, then, I supposed I would not see 55 in Aug.

Roumeli anka 13:01 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR... uses now the mid point of previous Quinex's levels.
12027-12105-12186-12264-12344

slv sam 13:00 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 12:54 GMT /
I have small long on aud..and bought nore after bc reassured us!...ab only one thing to keep in mind us$ will be from now on down and down and down!! not because I do not like. It is exactly the opposite. It is the only way for USA to be the economic superpower based on merit and statistic nothing else.GT

melb MA 12:59 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
DLR/CAD finally catches up!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:59 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
better cut your sell eur/usd..thinking about top 1.2379 caused by 1.2288 be broken.

Eilat Dophin 12:57 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
GEP./ Point well taken. I was just as surprized to see the Euro sinking to the figure... No we are in the middle of the lake. I'd love to short E above 1.3225, but doubt we'll get there today, Ivan or not Ivan.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:57 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd seem will get 1.7972-1.7992 as the top.
ready?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:56 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd top = 1.2288

Livingston nh 12:56 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
US Trade with E-zone declined as both imports and exports fell - overall trade growth seems to be slowing (but these are two month old figures)

hk ab 12:56 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
short small 1.2280.

Singapore Sfx 12:56 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
where ab ?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:56 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I hope my friends remember my numberthat posted yesterday 1.2280 as the top today.
be carefull from there maybe eur/usd down.

hk ab 12:54 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
another eur DNT is here.

hk ab 12:54 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
sam// are you ready for a s/l 200 pips first......
I have no doubts on the rally, but how to tackle the spike is the art.

KL KL 12:53 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
o.k getting ready to short the majors....I think Usd strength still there some where hiding...if they cannot go past the obvious resistence...i am coming!!

hk ab 12:52 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
sometimes the mkt makers are really genius.
When the USD is strong, they flirt the dlr/cad hard and made the dlr index not to break upside much.

Now, they can safely unwind the dlr/cad shorts when USD bear is at the upper hand.

hk mom, you are safe now (hopefully).

Syd 12:52 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
slv sam good trade

Rom IRG 12:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Sorry. Now using g_c_i, not so happy about it. What do you think of f_x_c_m?
Thanks again.

slv sam 12:50 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
exact and logical market in my vie. for those who left withgout boarding our euro train I can faithfully recommend them to buy aud/$ at this level 0.6935 because this is a rediculious price and sooner or later the market will have to catch up!!!GT

hk ab 12:50 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
oversold dlr/chf.

Dallas GEP 12:49 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Daniel didn't you stop out at 1.2260???

Rom IRG 12:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Hey guys. Trying to choose a better broker than my actula on (censored.). What do you think of censored?
Thanks!

HKG SK 12:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Looking at the price mvement NOW I do't think deficit figure matter anymore. US$ is going down. See 1.8000 GBP .

Budapest Daniel 12:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I'm died

Dallas GEP 12:46 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
OK, basically it doesn't matter what any of us think, The real direction on this probably will be detremined in the next 30minutes to 1 hour. Helll I was just flat WRONG on this one.

Syd 12:46 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Treasurys Rally After August PPI Falls, 10yr At 4.15%

Van jv 12:44 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
two good numbers, =>posibly no int. rate hike= little effect at this moment?

Eilat Dophin 12:43 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ I beg to differ and see the closing above 1.22 50 more than below 1.22 00.

But then let the big boys decide...

HKG SK 12:42 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas What is your view???

Dallas GEP 12:40 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
OK SK. just watch then

roma ana 12:39 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
any data on ppi?

HKG SK 12:39 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I can't agree more KL

HKG SK 12:36 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Good for dollar???? right. not over 52

KL KL 12:35 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Looks like market will be boring day today range bound and will kill all of us + expiration next week ....so "generally" very little -ve usd....now gas will drive usd!!

Dallas GEP 12:34 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
This will be USD positive IMO

Belgrade Knez 12:34 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK

$50.1 bln

London ar 12:34 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
-50.1b

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 12:34 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Def 50.1 bln

Dallas GEP 12:34 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
50.1 BI::ION

Gen dk 12:34 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HKG SK 12:32 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
What is the defiit figure???

hk ab 12:31 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
news no effect.

hk ab 12:30 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
trail b/e.

hk ab 12:29 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
would go quite heavy.

hk ab 12:26 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
move to 1.2230.

hk ab 12:25 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
new short limit 1.2222.....

Livingston nh 11:59 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Viktor - good question that -- market took the Yellen Q&A more seriously than her speech which was more upbeat than G'span testimony - she certainly didn't indicate any slowing on the interest rate hikes // commentators have to explain every move even if the explanation makes no sense

prague viktor 11:45 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh:G.day,but also she said that the rate @1,5 is so low and that must be good for the USD the Q is why the mkt take only the bad news G/L G/T

hk ab 11:20 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy games are over?......
747//Are you still holding the same view as in August?

Eilat Dophin 11:09 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ The average educated guess on the deficit by Those who Know is rarely 15% or more from prevision like last month.

This time, I'd venture +/- 5% of the estimate, thus the move you describe.

But then, within the thirty minutes or so, a more profound trend will start to emerge, and I sense that it will be a $ negative one, the speed/steep depending on the differential on the analists figures.

But we ain't going to complain if they miss big, those guys. Don't we just love it when they are in limboland... and the market has to adjust and suradjust... then verify.

Anyway it doesn't change much since the Chinese&Co do have some agreement/obligation with some US Financial Sheriffs that they ought to buy the $ of the extra balance: or they'll pay for it anyway.

Thus I should go swimming till Trade Time.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:04 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd :
buy level : 7865 - 7830 - 7805

LA fxnew 10:56 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hi raden again,
ur view on gbp/usd pls

thanks!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:54 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hello. usd/jpy will move up to 110.47, cut reverse there.

Eilat Dophin 10:52 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Leeds/ We all LIVE on GMT!
If your Leeds is in the UK, let it lead you.

Haven't you ever told a physically deserving girl/lady that she has a cute Greenwhich Line?
It usually works wonders, even if she blushes (especially.)

Livingston nh 10:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Big news overnight was Yellen Q&A?? Traders that get economic advice from gov't employees - I didn't think anybody believed in that old J-curve chestnut anymore

Dallas GEP 10:46 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
WEll short term I thought cable would bounce off 1.7880. Normally a short with 1.7920 stop would be a decent play but with data, I don't know/

Dallas GEP 10:43 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
CABA.....my GUESS is that numbers will be bad but NOT as bad as earlier announcements and that will be reacted to with SOME USD buying. I do not THINK tho the prcing action on the annoucement will be a large move. 30-40 pip move MAYBE at most. NO ONE howver can predict these things with any degree of accuracy but that is what I think

Philadelphia caba 10:37 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:31 GMT September 10, 2004

GEP, thank you very much. last question before go..your opinion on today US data?

LA fxnew 10:37 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
gep:
what do you think of cable ?

leeds jb 10:32 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
can anybody help me with pivot point problem, do you use 12pm gmt as end of day or 5pm est as end of day.tia

Dallas GEP 10:31 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
CABA,,,,.,.6865 should hold it

Dallas GEP 10:30 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
CABA, there can be. If you remeber NFP, we had usd spurt of about 150 pips and eur/gbp spike DOWN about 40 pips on the news due to EURO shorting

Philadelphia caba 10:28 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:19 GMT September 10, 2004
i'm short from @0.6845 and would like to hold and wait to get lower...what is your s/l (at least for today session)? thanks again.

GER ad 10:26 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP
Eased because could not break clear 0.6850 overnight and because critic from Brown on EU economies, but if not breaking in the downside 0.6810/15 may close the week higher IMHO.

Dallas GEP 10:19 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
CABA, well I would like to be out before trade data but eur/gbp is a safer pair anyway. I really think we may see .6800 print soon but it MIGHT not be today. .6820 as we have seen is support and I will AT LEAST wait for that

Philadelphia caba 10:17 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
any affect on EUR/GBP by US trade deficit numbers ?

Philadelphia caba 10:15 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:22 GMT September 10, 2004
Closed eur/aud at 1.7683 from 1.7765. Still in Eur/gbp short
Good Morning GEP,
your view on EUR/GBP? how long will you hold short? thanks.

Dallas GEP 10:14 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I am sure it has been mentioned by trade deficit numbers US will be annouced at 12:30 GMT. This could be another situation like we just had in NFP where stops and limits will NOT be honored because of quote "ABNORMAL" price conditions (gaps in market pricing). So SAFER pairs will be non-US based pairs.

QC Swap 10:11 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Closed out my Eur/Usd short for a few pips.

shanghai bc 09:58 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

MOM 09:42 -- Once CNY floats,HKD will float too.

Gen dk 09:55 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
finally Eur/usd got 1.2208.
have a nice you.
I got confuse with this condition if eur/usd got 1.2208 but usd/chf still not yet get 1.2653.
maybe better wait and see.

Dallas GEP 09:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I see that 1.2260 suggested stop held with 2 PIPS to spare @ 1.2258. I expect at least a minor bounce here @ 1.2210. IF you are in short from that 1.2235/40 area you might consider closing HALF at profit and putting rest with stop at BE.

hk mom 09:42 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
bc, will HKD delink together with CNY too?

shanghai bc 09:24 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

VIIES -- Good afternoon..I bet USD would be most affected due to the reason that China is a defacto Dollar-Bloc memeber now and when CNY floats ,she does not have to recycle billions of Dollars into US Treasury just to maintain Dollar-Link,thus contracting Dollar demand in the world and reducing Dollar support in financing US debt..East Asia has 1.8 trillion Dollar turnover each year in trade and at least half of it would be in CNY only once China breaks away from Dollar-Link..The loss of Dollar demand in tune of roughly 900 billions each year..That will be the end of "Dollar-Bloc" including USA and East Asia too..Japan may not need to buy so many Dollars too just make sure Yen is compatible with CNY..Any diminished need of Dollar is no good for Dollar strength in the end ..Good trades.

Dallas GEP 09:22 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/aud at 1.7683 from 1.7765. Still in Eur/gbp short

Kamensk Andy 09:12 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
BC - thank you for your answer, many good trades to you..

Tallinn viies 09:04 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc - nice to see you.
I would like to ask your opinion about CNY. if it really starts fluctuating which currency will loose due this the most?

is it dollar? due the reason that CNY and USD are not pegged anymore and no direct reason to buy dollar assets? or any other currency? tia

Los Angeles ss 09:03 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, Raden Mas -- always appreciate your comments.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:03 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Loss Angeles ss,
maybe can help you about gbp/usd buy level .
1.7865 - 7830 - 7805

shanghai bc 09:01 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

Correction..Shoudl read "Dollar and Yen may not get much uplift while China and USA correct"..

shanghai bc 08:58 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

MOM 08:26 -- Good aternoon..I am happy to see you too..Good trades.

shanghai bc 08:57 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

ANDY 08:17 -- Good afternoon..Any normal curency getting into interest rate up-cycle tends to get into untrend..But Long bond yield is still falling making it difficult for Dollar to make any significent rally ..I guess this Dollar stalemate may last for some more weeks in 90--87 region..Till ECB hints at rate hike sometime this year..Still buying anything around Eur/Usd 1.20 and Usd/Jpy 110 and below..Dollar and Usd/Jpy may not get much uplift while China and USA are correcting..Good trades.

leeds jb 08:56 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
question? when you work out pivot pionts do you use end of day candles gmt or 5pm est? i am confused.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:56 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 08:41 GMT September 10, 2004
gbp/usd 1.7938.
today gbp/usd more strong than eur/usd

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:54 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
sorry.. I mean usd/chf 1.2653 (not 43)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf after touch 2612..will up to get 1.2643

prague viktor 08:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 08:29 GMT September 10, 2004:this it will happen after the election,now it will be very bad for Mr.Bush IMO G/ G/T

Gen dk 08:44 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:42 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
its time eur/usd to make new low for today.

Los Angeles ss 08:41 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas -- your thoughts on GBP/USD? Thanks.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:39 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
HELLO...
eur/usd will down to get 1.2208 or 1.2170., but be carefull when at 1.2108..buyers waith there.
also usd/chf when at 1.2643/53..maybe down

Budapest Daniel 08:38 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
thanks indonesia for your opinion

slv sam 08:29 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 08:11 GMT ...much appreciated Sir. Fed's Yellen statement yesterday is a strong signal for us$ to start heading for all time low agains not only euro but aud as well...cad (the early bird!) price action is abvious aimho! GT

hk mom 08:26 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 08:11 GMT September 10, 2004
I am happy to see you! thanks!!

Kamensk Andy 08:17 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc - Good afternoon. May I ask your view on eur and pound till year end? Personally still thinking we shall see new highs this year...Good trades.

GOES B747 08:13 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Syd 07:49 GMT September 10, 2004

you also can come back with large fortune if you do not play therte :-)

gt

shanghai bc 08:11 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

SAM 07:48-- Good afternoon..Not much of a techie but I have been buying anything below .70 for months by now..Then,we have lots of kangaroos to buy and anything below.70 seems to be reasonable bargain price for a lomng time to come..If you are more price concious,start buying on the break of Aud/Jpy .76.30 may yield faster profits..Good luck.

Moskow 08:07 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

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Indonesia raja 08:03 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Budapest €/usd will go up and down but I think it will go up after data

Syd 07:49 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
‘There is a very easy way to return from a casino with a small fortune – go there with a large one.’ Jack Lemmon (1925-2001)

slv sam 07:48 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc....Sir do you agree that aud is real bargain at this level?.TIA.GT

Prague JV 07:46 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
JF - if you around .... any info usd/jpy @ 110.25 ?? TIA

Budapest Daniel 07:42 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
good mourning for all of ya guys..

Can anyone now predict today's eur/usd movements before the data release?

PAR 07:40 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
6850 option in EURGBP being defended hence EURO sell of, also vague rumors of some european central bank selling euro.

London ar 07:32 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
am hearing that hedge fund have got stops around 1.2220 for eur/usd - might explain the sell off

Kuwait rasugama 07:31 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Disneyland WDB 07:14 GMT September 10, 2004,
Hi, are you logged into ymessanger? If so, can u pls invite me now for chat in this matter?

shanghai bc 07:26 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

Hope it is not for Mickey Mouse only..

Disneyland WDB 07:14 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I have some Forex documents, Cd,printed ebooks I want to sell all those Haven't thought at a price.Some of them are free from the net, some are paid.Great for begginers and for intermediates.Great explanations on tech analysis and on fundamental analysis.My ymessenger ID is ovidiu2310ro if any of you is intrestead let me know.

hong kong nt 06:53 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
AB -- .685 maybe MT low for AUD...

06:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
¥€¥
£
€&aud;

Syd 06:07 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
aussie market little short going into the weekend move to around 6930/40 not ruled out

Syd 06:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Aus Budget surplus soars to $25 billion
Bumper company taxes and an expected improvement in jobs growth have prompted federal Treasury to upgrade its Budget forecasts for the next four years.
SMH







Ltn th 05:49 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Combined extra surpluses for last financial year and this may affect AUD pairs today. The 5.3 bi announced earlier today for this years projection was worth a few pips.

chicago joe 05:29 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone comment on aud/nzd? Is it a buy or is there more downside to go? TIA and GT.

London 05:27 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Fed Governor Janet Yellen said the US Trade Deficit to widen as long as dollar stays at present levels, and there would only be a turnaround in the trade gap if it involves the dollar. Statements by the Fed that imply further dollar declines are a rarity. Fed Chairman Greenspan always hinted at his inability to determine the real exchange rate of the dollar considering the swelling deficit, but he never factored in a dollar decline as a requirement to a slowing in the deficit since he always showed confidence in foreign demand for US capital. The impact could be further compounded ahead of Friday's July US trade figures, which follow a record breaking $55.8 billion in June.
EURUSD shot up to $1.2237 from $1.2190 in minutes after the statements

Chicago Goofy 05:23 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
FXNT, Great to know the professionals here.

My name is Goofy//

quit0_ecuador_valdez 05:15 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
De nada Dolphin amigo. Adios..yawn..closed all my stuff, nothing impressive but positive at least. Better to have collected aluminum cans this evening...embarassing. My pit bull is asleep on the bed..will join him.

quit0_ecuador_valdez 05:05 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
sheesh, the whole freeking MONTH is weird..like a kid drew rectangles on the chart. I've never seen a chart like this, ever...FX or stocks. My bet is a LOT of folks have lost a lot of money on FX in the last 2 months...you just don't hear about it. But one thing's for certain, "nothing is for certain". Trying to predict these days is fruitless. Currencies backed by air are volitile and getting more so...more air, more volitility. CHF is backed by (correct me!) 32% precious metals and is the highest worldwide...least volitile too. Get it?

london chippie 05:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
closed long $/yen with a few pips in hand -- GEP was right when he said that ''possie sucked from the start''.

Eilat Dophin 05:01 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Valdez/ So let me send Jay my polychromed compliments;
and to you my thanks, sir.

,kk cal 04:59 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Colors? Jay doesn't want colors

San Diego FXNT 04:59 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
I agree Chicago. Today the market seemd to have a decidedly different tone. Many other traders noticed it too.

Are there just too many uncertainties? Terror worries? US trade balance worries? 9/11 anniversary worries?

Not sure what to blame it one but there are a number of possible factors. Time will tell...

Ina co'z 04:57 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
raden..
thanks for your info 1.2256 this early morning.
agree 2256 is top, but how is about yours 1,2272/92? still works?

Chicago Goofy 04:54 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Is summer over from today?

I have been watching this market for whole summer, never see the werid movement like today.

quit0_ecuador_valdez 04:52 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin//what this character code is: called html code. This & all web pages are largely html (hyper text markup language). That's why it works. Colors? Jay doesn't want colors.

slv sam 04:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
aud/$ is a real bargain imho....0.71 should be seen fast in case euro continued its its strength!GT

wisconsin tim 04:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
i am not gonna tell (sorry) because if you don't do it right you can recolor all the text on the page

Eilat Dophin 04:45 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Tim How do you get colors up there in Wisconsin?

slv sam 04:45 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:38 GMT September 9, 2004
poor yen bulls are forced to get out of their positions imho..$/y might reach 110.20 level before behaving logically!!GT

Eilat Dophin 04:44 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
¥


It shouldn't work. Why should it...?

slv sam 04:43 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:23 GMT September 9, 2004
1.2150/60 is the max.retarcement for euro imho! then a new assault on 1.2230 and again to 1.2360..euro strong on all crosses...this tells us something!GT

hmmm...let us see if by Monday 1.2360 can be achieved!GT

quit0_ecuador_valdez 04:40 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
It isn't rumor, it's fact: big Arab money hording Au. Sheesh, they're supposed to be reinstalling the gold dinar to have one of the few gold currencies (Krugerand - Africa). It would be wise of them to put that petro money in some solid form of something to lock in profits (like the € sell off in Oz last night)...hence Au. Evidently they see the USD as I do..overbought and undersexed. Cheap $$ help US econ..let's proceed to 1.25-1.27.

wisconsin tim 04:31 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Flatform came out with this about gbp/yen ...
A pullback towards the neckline around 197.50 is one possibility.

can anyone tell we what neckline they are talking about cause I can't see one on 4hr though monthly charts

Ina co'z 04:29 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 04:18 GMT September 10, 2004

Morning my Friend...ya so fresh to day..lol..
yup, i'm keep longing for cable. And for a while keep an eye to 1.7850 for support...imo...!

melbourne farmacia 04:28 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Syd 02:49 GMT September 10, 2004
Fwiw - Running the same projection model on Aud/Usd that i used for Euro thru out late 03 early 04 ( see archive )
The yearly downside targets are as follows: 0.6496
( censored ) - 0.6783 & 0.6852 etc...
Note 0.6783 and now 0.6852.. make your own conclusion
( rebound points ) GT

sg Fxrumors 04:24 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Arab accounts buying euro and gold aggressively in the past weeks. maybe they expect terror to strike again???

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 04:18 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
good morning mr.co_z..
buy 1.7865 was active now and have given little gain.

what do you see about gbp/usd today?
happy last night totally. :-)

Bribane 04:12 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim

Bribane 04:10 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim
&//h//e//a//r//t//s//;

Brisbane 04:10 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
&+hearts+;

Ina co'z 04:10 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Hello...all....!

Cable resistance seen at 1.7955-65...imo..gl/gt..!

wisconsin tim 04:10 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
bris remove //

&//h//e//a//r//t//s//;

Brisbane 04:08 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
&+hearts+

LA fxnew 04:08 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
raden :
how about gbp/usd?

Syd 04:06 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR DNT
(lge).1.1975-1.2250
expires today

wisconsin tim 04:06 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
GER ad, how did that AUD.CAD work for you =) nice call

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 04:06 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd target is 1.2170

GER ad 04:05 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
AUD/CAD long,
Out at 0.8882

wisconsin tim 04:04 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
man, 110 $/Yen seems pretty "sticky"

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 04:04 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
good morning everybody..
be carefull eur/usd will down after touched 1.2250.
I feel sellers can be invited from there...
let's see..

wisconsin tim 04:03 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   

mumbai jay 04:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
BC : Good day to you.. Would appreciate your views on AUD pl..TIA

Bribane 04:01 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
&+hearts+;

quit0_ecuador_valdez 03:57 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
...we could get wild with colors, text modifications etc. here but Jay told me not to say how to do that. Stick with symbols.
€/$ actually going my way! (can't believe it!)

,kk cal 03:57 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
¥

quit0_ecuador_valdez 03:53 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
don't put the + sign in there! That was just for communication. :^>

wisconsin tim 03:52 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
remove //
&//y//e//n//;

ie. no plus signs

quit0_ecuador_valdez 03:52 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
True story. Retired at age 49, am 57. Pleasant trades pal.

,kk bc 03:51 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
&+yen+;
&+pound+;
&+euro+;

MInnesota Mark 03:50 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Valdez -- You have WAY too much time on your hands.

quit0_ecuador_valdez 03:46 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
To make posts more concise, you can make the symbols even tho your keyboard doesn't have them. Instead of EUR/USD for example write €$. How?
Type the & symbol first.
Next to it with no space, write in the currency name.
Last put a semicolon, again with no space. That's it.
&+yen+; for ¥
&+pound+; for £
&+euro+; for €
Going gnuts:
&+hearts+; for ♥ &+clubs+; for ♣ &+spades+; for ♠
See my post in yesterday's help forum for more characters.

♥ ♥ ♥

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 03:36 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
2 yrs ago i read an interview with some renowned astrologist ,not so long time ago i read it again , he predicted 2004 would be very bad year but the worst is gonna be 2112 i think

Dammam A 03:33 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
)toronto( Dr Unken Kat Thank you very much.
I shrted it from 0.6898 looking for few pips;I trhink to close it.
Good luck Dr.

Sydney Alimin 03:32 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
if there is noone selling euro at this level, well then maybe above 1.23

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 03:26 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dammam A 03:08 GMT

aussie is sell down to 6800, whers its gonna be good buy , according to dayly chart , macd is falling

quit0_ecuador_valdez 03:25 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 02:52 GMT September 10, 2004
Good point, thanks for that.

As far as the "brigades" of terrorists targeting Putin, "anywhere anytime", someone's forgetting 1 thing: if push comes to shove, Russia + USA + Great Britian are formidable sleeping giants when it comes to war, and combined, watch out. This terrorist thing may unite all 3 into a coalition with an attitude, not this wimpish so called coalition crap we saw in Iraq. China is a little fed up with this stuff too ; plagued with Islamic fanatics, you just don't hear about it. Tick off all 4 enough, all at once, (as is almost the case) and fellas, think twice before waking the giants. There are more Chinese soldiers than adult male population in all Islamic countries combined. Do the math. It's up to Islamic leaders to tether their beast or the beast will be a feast on the barbie.

London 03:12 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
We'll target Putin next: Islamic terror group
An Islamic militant group that claimed responsibility for two terrorist attacks in Russia last month said in an internet statement today that its next target is Russian President Vladimir Putin.The statement, issued in the name of The Islambouli Brigades, appeared on a web site known for carrying previous statements from militants, and called on all its cells in Russia to wage "a violent war in the face of the infidels in Russia, targeting everywhere."It was not immediately possible to verify the authenticity of the statement, which appeared on an internet site known for carrying such claims and other extremist Islamic material
AP

wisconsin tim 03:09 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 03:03 GMT September 10, 2004

what do think about $/¥ and GBP/$ fxnew?

Dammam A 03:08 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Hello people ...
Any view about AUD/USD for the moment?
Any advice will be appreciated.
Thank you.

NYC 03:08 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
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Dallas GEP 03:06 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
In my absence, a eur/aud short from 1.7765 was taken on a sell order I left. Still short eur/gbp.

LA fxnew 03:03 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
need advice from ppl who are good at chart for gbp/usd and usd/jpy pls

Thanks

hk ab 03:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
This eur/jpy paints another line in the weekly 10 ma now. Very impressive work done by the biggies. This run is going for 136.50-137.

hk ab 02:58 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf is sitting here interestingly.....
1.6 preparation?

Eilat Dolphin 02:54 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Population of this FORUM, (the word jumped out.)

Eilat Dolphin 02:52 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Thinking about your location, Syd, it appears to me that the biggest populations of this are living on the same line: the Whole Pacific Shoreline.

How strange ?!

So, we the old world, three continents, three thousand years of solid serious history ( I am thinking of Greece then Toscana, mainly), 2500 years of Military Grace ( from Rome to the WW ), we the shipbuilders ( thinking about Cook, the Captain), we the Discoverers of this Planet, the Inventors, the Nobels, the explorers even; is it possible, I say, that on this vanguard System that it the FX wold, we've been surpassed at least mathematically by so very few people living on that so thin shoreline?

Not that I object. ;^)

Nor do I think that those Pacificians are more interested in money... or too interested in money... I'd venture they like to try to decode the effects of complex overlapping unpredicatble events.




Ltn th 02:52 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
valdez// Perhaps you forget the similarity between the relationship between yuan and HKD on one hand and the USD and yen on the other. From a link you posted earlier. see the second last pane.

Syd 02:49 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin well Anz are calling it lower , then for it to rally to +80 With the Election coming I feel we can see it making the low 65 area Martin mentions , however looking at the Kiwi and Cad levels at multi year highs wont be too long before before we get a rebound its like a piece of elastic being stretch to extremes before the ping. in the grand scheme of things Aussie is just in a bit of strife at the moment so its getting hammered soon as the focus is off it markets will turn of something else.

melbourne farmacia 02:47 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
September liquidity is ones friend valdez... GT

quit0_ecuador_valdez 02:39 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Well I see the "rogue" (€/$) is back to its tricks again..maybe back to normal by sunup here in 9 hours? I still say the real value of the U$D is something like 1.24-1.27 and it's overbought. The slightest twitch makes it soar or dive meaning to me it's unstable at best. My idea: people percieve it as being a strong investment; demand + distrust in EZ makes U$D worth more than it should be in relation to GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD.

Eilat Dolphin 02:32 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Syd/ Hi there on the Pacific coast! Would you agree that the Ausie must be close to bottom, at least against euro and CAD?

wisconsin tim 02:20 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
quito - thanks

Syd 02:16 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Costello: 03/04 Budget Surplus A$8.0B

Brisbane L 02:15 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin agree with your view on Kiwi, with homeloan rates being lifted not too far away for the housing market getting into strife..

Westpac NZ Lifts Home Loan Rate By 25 Points to 8.6%

quit0_ecuador_valdez 01:55 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Tim for the levels. There are literally hundreds of forum participants from all over the world, only a few actually post. Glad to see you're one of them. I do print these tables out and follow them as do I hope many, as it does give some indication of prices. Tomorrow will be likely volitile..a gob of USA data coming in late.

wisconsin tim 01:39 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
levels for tomorrow

Projections for 9/10/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
9/9/2004 AUDUSD 0.6913 0.6830 0.6997 0.6798
9/9/2004 EURGBP 0.6872 0.6825 0.6879 0.6802
9/9/2004 EURUSD 1.2289 1.2186 1.2299 1.2114
9/9/2004 EURYEN 135.05 133.81 134.97 132.47
9/9/2004 GBPUSD 1.7936 1.7787 1.7949 1.7742
9/9/2004 GBPYEN 197.13 195.27 196.82 193.99
9/9/2004 NDZUSD 0.6563 0.6484 0.6585 0.6458
9/9/2004 USDCAD 1.2906 1.2803 1.2956 1.2791
9/9/2004 USDCHF 1.2629 1.2522 1.2714 1.2517
9/9/2004 USDYEN 110.31 109.39 110.39 108.80

Calabash TarHeel 01:10 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin
Thanks Martin, will e-mail Jay in a few. I think you have called for 59 l/t for Kiwi. I see .6050 over time.
Thanks Again
Take Care

Gold Coast martin 01:03 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 00:54 GMT September 10, 2004
hi ...in my post of 2 days ago i mentioned kiwi will shed lots of feathers after the rate hike....in view of Yellens comments this morning {oz time},the kiwi will start its descent below 65 on monday,....it may start today before US data if JAPAN INC..decides to put the euro back in its little hole....it is a real possibility{high propability}/...if not look for the downward movement of KIWI towards first target of 6452 on monday...i can tell yoou in detail why KIWI will travel south but i have not got the time nor the space to post all the hard data...if you like get my email from Jay and i can email you the information..g/t

Calabash TarHeel 00:54 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin
Hello Martin, hope all is well with you. Aud has been nice last two days. Wondering if you see the Kiwi breaking 6490 and and stumbling on down its merry little way.
Tia, gt

Gold Coast martin 00:44 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 00:19 GMT September 10, 2004
Like i said in my post YELEN expressed her own opinion that was construed by the market to be shared by rest of FED board....g/t

houston st 00:42 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
ny amc -- log into yahoo...

ny amc 00:38 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Houston.ST.....you around. yahoo or msn me

Gen dk 00:26 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 00:22 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
thanks for ur advice on eur$....... today is my blink blink day
lol gl>

Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 00:19 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 00:16 GMT September 10, 2004

hi there
all i can say is am greatful, place a sl @110.00

dc fxq 00:19 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 00:15 GMT

Yellen is a dovish Clinton appointee and is NOT a voting member at the present. Ergo: Her comments were just an excuse in very thin trading conditions to play some games.

Calabash TarHeel 00:16 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
Charlotte,North Carolina SVI
Hello SVI
Suspect you can say thanks to the MOF for that move
Dried out up there yet?

wisconsin tim 00:16 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
watching the real football pregame and that dude married to jess simpson is one lucky fella

Gold Coast martin 00:15 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
For perspective sake:Yelen made the comments about current account deficit AFTER her testimony in front of the Committee as her own personal opinion and not as the concensus of the FED.....Unfortunately the market has interpret it differently and the s....t hit the fan.....best thing to do if you are short euro is to keep floating your position ...12252 resistance should halt this rally and will see euro back to 12190 before data....tonites trade data should produce a good figure but in view of what has happened already it may not generate any significant upwards dollar movement....so we could have euro close at 12170 level for the week......There is one big variable into the equation today...as i have remarked before the BOJ is in the radar screen for this month ...in the event of intervention then euro could be send back to 120 level with yen up to 11120 levels..judging by early action this morning it may already be happenning.....one thing i promise you about today....it will not be boring....g/t

Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 00:06 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
shoot $yen went way up there, i was just lucky to be long

wisconsin tim 00:04 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
[Revised Q2 GDP] growth came in much worse than expectations. Q2 GDP growth revised to +0.3% q/q vs preliminary +0.4% q/q growth, lower than mkt expectations of an upward revision to +0.8% q/q. Annualised Q2 GDP revised to +1.3% q/q, down from preliminary +1.7% q/q and confounding mkt expectations of an upward revision to +3.5% q/q. Q2 CAPEX revised to +1.2% q/q vs preliminary flat reading, but below mkt expectations of a +2.7% q/q reading but only slightly below our f/c of a +1.5% q/q figure. Data seen bond-positive for JGBs and negative for N-225.

dc fxq 00:03 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
PIMCO was, is and will be a "one note" Charlie on US econ.

Sydney Alimin 00:02 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
this is interesting about comments made by fed officials, that's telling something about trade balance number tonight, isn't it?

Sydney Alimin 00:01 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply   
hmm too many people shorting euro lately....stops triggered could send euro higher

 




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