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Forex Forum Archive for 09/11/2004

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hk ab 15:17 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
since I post long gbp, the following type of gbp +ve disappears, then followed by flooding gbp bearish news-link/update....

Ldn ;-) 21:56 GMT August 15, 2004
Tom Hougaard, the Bloomberg and CNBC commentator and chief market strategist for City Index sees the GBP reaching $2.34 at some stage during the next 6 months FWIW

That tells a lot. I am off.

Arlington Spen 14:04 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Did anyone try to estimate how much money exactly the Fed created in any given year?
The best I could come up with is the following calculation:
Take net FMOC operations during a year (purchases minus redemptions), $52 billion for 2002
add coupon payments foregone: total Treasury liabilities around $680 billion, average interest rate 4%, which adds up to $27 billion. (The Fed is prohibited from collecting interest payments on Treasury securities).
So the final number is about 80 billion newborn dollars for 2002 ?
Correct me if I am missing something here.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:52 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
The dow is heading for 9,200
an Option...Long Put Dec Month strik 102 (DIAXX.X)
Short Call Dec Month strik 106 (DIALB.X)
U will make Lots of $$$

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:34 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
It's Just High Expected...I have no trend for the euro this week.

Arlington Spen 13:31 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Van JV, interesting post.

Paris jan 13:04 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:18 GMT September 11, 2004 :1,2263 its good level to buy or to sell.

Global-View Research Section 13:01 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Trade fears will continue - INVEsTICA

The dollar's reaction to Greenspan's testimony indicates the difficulties in pushing the currency through the 1.20 level and there is likely to be further medium-term resistance around this level. There are likely to be further uncertainties over US growth trends, especially with some signs of vulnerability in consumer spending. US interest rates are likely to increase in September, but there is an increasing risk that rates will then be left be on hold. Any pause in rate hikes will tend to undermine the US currency, especially as markets had priced in short-term rates of at least 2.0% by the end of 2004. The dollar's dependence on short-term inflows will ensure medium-term vulnerability. .. See the full update in our research section CLICK HERE

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:19 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
The last post was levels for next week

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:18 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
High Low Trend
EURUSD 1.2263 1.2002
USDJPY 110.36 108.97
GBPUSD 1.8010 1.7720 Sell
USDCHF 1.2804 1.2531 Sell
EURCHF 1.5434 1.5302
AUDUSD 0.7046 0.6854 Sell
USDCAD 1.3197 1.2803 Sell
NZDUSD 0.6571 0.6443
EURGBP 0.6861 0.6716 Buy
EURJPY 134.43 131.70
GBPJPY 197.44 194.46 Sell
CHFJPY 87.438 85.619 Buy
GBPCHF 2.2914 2.2347 Sell
EURAUD 1.7759 1.7130 Buy
EURCAD 1.5992 1.5546 Sell
AUDCAD 0.9282 0.8788 Sell
AUDJPY 77.118 75.331 Sell

hk ab 12:07 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 16:09 GMT September 10, 2004
Aren't you amazed with their stranggling technique at 131.80 eur/jpy? it's like super twisting mark there.... but they have no choice, otherwise, the jap number will not be good anymore this year.

I just wonder what those eur/gbp longers are thinking now, quite cold....

I think the only way I see USD-bullish news-posting is if I short USD on the forum. bye.....

Ldn ;-) 08:59 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Snow says benign U.S. inflation likely to continue

LIMA, Ohio, Sept 10 (Reuters) - A small decline in U.S. producer prices last month suggests inflationary pressures will remain benign, Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday.

"We continue to live and benefit from a basically low inflation environment," Snow told reporters after speaking to a group of credit union representatives in Lima, Ohio. "I think that's going to continue," he said.

Ldn ;-) 08:56 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   

IMM sterling speculators cut net long position
Fri Sep 10, 2004 04:15 PM ET
NEW YORK, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Speculators in IMM sterling futures sharply pared back a net long position in the week ended Sept. 7, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
"Long" positions are effectively bets that a specific currency will rise, while "short" positions are de facto bets that a currency will fall.

The data from the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report on speculative positioning are used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.

For example, extreme net long speculative positions often signal a decline in the currency going forward, especially if that position conflicts with the positioning of the more influential commercial players.

Speculators generally are trend followers seeking to pick a precise top or bottom in the market.

Sterling futures speculators cut the net long position to 1,747 contracts from 7,089 contracts in the previous week.

During the CFTC's reporting period the pound declined against the dollar (GBP=: Quote, Profile, Research) to around $1.7736 late on Sept 7. from $1.8022 late on Aug 31, according to Reuters data.

"Cable (sterling vs dollar) looked quite bearish technically through Tuesday; the reporting day and the positioning that you see in IMM reports does reflect a lot of technically driven traders," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist with censored in Stamford, Conn.

"Even from a fundamental (economic) standpoint there has been a lot of bad news in the U.K. and the market has marked down expectations for BOE tightening over the past couple of weeks," which has weighed on the pound, Katzive added.

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

9/07/04 week 8/31/04 week

Long 10,847 12,753

Short 11,679 12,228

Net -832 525

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

9/07/04 week 8/31/04 week

Long 27,671 29,212

Short 9,639 8,385

Net 18,032 20,827

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)

9/07/04 week 8/31/04 week

Long 10,778 15,120

Short 9,031 8,031

Net 1,747 7,089

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

9/07/04 week 8/31/04 week

Long 3,488 3,707

Short 11,148 11,890

Net -7,660 -8,183

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

9/07/04 week 8/31/04 week

Long 46,379 35,306

Short 5,076 6,168

Net 41,303 29,138

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

9/07/04 week 8/31/04 week

Long 5,160 7,138

Short 5,823 2,400

Net -663 4,738

MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)

9/07/04 week 8/31/04 week

Long 19,341 45,279

Short 10,020 6,459

Net 9,321 38,820

Oklahoma City JMC 07:05 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Have you guys heard of yet?

Was wondering if any of you trade the forex market, successfully.. or not.
Strategy's that come into play?

off subject...
I have emailed atcm, they have responded very well with me. And I like the attitude they have about the system that they have.

Van jv 06:16 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Real GDP Growth between 1998-2003 (%)

11.5 11.3 20.9 11.1 5.7
Hope U may visit Europe , to be able to comment
that debate---
same as Blair on war
hope someone from EZ will comment

Van jv 05:51 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Spen ,nh
Van jv 23:02 GMT April 6, 2004
The Anglo-Saxon Debt Miracle/Morgan Stanley/

Australia, Britain and the United States have substantially outperformed other developed economies in the past five years. The vaunted Anglo-Saxon flexibility has been cited as the major cause of the better performance of these economies. A better explanation, in my opinion, is debt. Household debt in Anglo-Saxon economies has risen much faster than elsewhere, or compared to their history. Australia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio rose by 39 percentage points between 1998–2003, Britain’s by 19 points and the US’s by 16.

Exhibit 1

The Leverage Game (% of GDP)

US UK Australia Euro-Zone Japan

Household Debt

1988 57.9 66.6 36.8 59.7

1993 62.2 74.8 42.9 63.3

1998 67.1 72.5 61.2 41.7 65.1

2003 83.5 91.8 100.3 48.3 67.3

Current Account

1988 -2.3 -4.1 -3.0 2.7

1993 -1.2 -1.8 -2.7 3.0

1998 -2.3 -0.5 -4.5 3.0

2003 -4.8 -1.7 -6.3 0.4 3.2

Real GDP Growth between 1998-2003 (%)

11.5 11.3 20.9 11.1 5.7

Source: ECB, RBA, Bank of England, the Fed, CEIC and Morgan Stanley

prauge viktor 05:40 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez:Come to the EU and try to see how it is,army of youth and old people just waiting at the end of the monthe for the sup.from the gov.EU need a lot of reform,in the eastren Germany every 2from five voting to the new nazi and the new stalin party.the EU eco.going in 1 direction down thanks to BOJ and china the EUR fly last year,what realy I cant understand that rate in the USA rising but still no effect on the USD price,the usd must rise just tell me those bil.of usd in the middel east where are going for sure not to the EU.

HKG SK 05:28 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
If I am given the job I would push the Euro down to 0.78-0.80. Trade not with the US but with Asia especially China. Compete with US.

The Chinese will definitely buy more VW, MB, And BMW etc, etc...than they will buy Cadillac,etc,etc..

HKG SK 05:23 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
I think Brown is totally right. At last someone have the courage to speak out about the EU. The whole issue is due to the single currency, I think.

The Euro is far too overvalue and no one is willing to buy anything from them. Trade is becoming intolerable in Europe. US are extremely clever in this sense as they are trying to transfer their own debts to Europe by using the single currency. Tricet really is not the man for this job, he still doesn't realise expensive Euro means NO GROWTH.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:48 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
Sky News: Brown bashes EU growth..HERE, strongest words against EU yet from anyone. Says Euroized countries are a danger to world economy. "Weak growth in Europe is endangering the global economy, Chancellor Gordon Brown has claimed." Brown buddy, yer my hero...this Euro idea was stupid from the get go..a one world currency is a pure farce and the most anarchistic idea to be put in motion since Hitler. But Frankfurt gave us both. Not to mention NO FOREX pals in a one world currency environment. If the Euro fails and it may, who's got the gold bullion that the countries' CBs had to divy up to get their Euros? Frankfurt. Anyone note there are NO German posters on GV? Think.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:26 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
A cold winter ahead...15%-30% more to be spent by utility consumers already loaded with expenses in additional heating costs: HERE. High crude is reason. Price not seen to go below $40 for 6 months by most top analysts.

Hurricane Frances (not counting H. Charley) caused 200M to citrus growers in Florida. Bracing for Ivan. Anyone know the total damage to Florida this hurricane season thus far?

Nepal - Communist rebels who bombed the U.S. information center criticize Washington for giving Nepal millions of dollars in development and military aid, including small arms and training.

We're overdue for another ice age by the cycle but global warming is staving it off...or can it? Some North American Indian records go back 2 ice ages..(58k years) each is said to have horrific weather driving civilization literally into caves both at inceptions of ice ages and ends of ice ages. Think about it.

Ltn th 01:23 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
I suggest that those figures are a bit irrelevant unless the amount of money invested overseas is included as well. See my post to valdez yesterday.

Arlington Spen 01:13 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
I was incorrect about all rivals:
2004 numbers as % GDP:

Total debt: USA 64%, Japan 150%, France 63%, Italy 105%, Germany 66%

Budget deficits: USA 4.6%, Japan 7.1%, Germany 3.7%, France 3.6%,

Chart 4.3 here, the range of budget deficits in devoloped countries:

range of total debt (old data):

dc fxq 00:56 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
I WAS being facetious of course, but it would be fum to see how the Eurocrats and Eurohypers would reacth though, wouldn't it?


Livingston nh 00:01 GMT September 11, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq - there is no long term for the EUR - there is no basis for valuation - its not a currency


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