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Forex Forum Archive for 09/16/2004

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wisconsin tim 23:47 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
System accounts were selling the [DLR/YEN] and [EUR/YEN] in our time yesterday, and their actions extended into the European time. Dlr/Yen's heaviness above 110.00 and Eur/Yen's inability to rise thru 135 are the factors behind, but further going back into the cause of their actions, all come from the Dlr/Yen's abnormal solidness at 109. MOF Watanabe never speaks on FX like Mizoguchi has been doing every morning, but he is known as super intervenist. From the recent actions, it appears the MOF wants to keep the Dlr/Yen above 110.00, and use every step including the Yen crosses (but not by intervention) especially the Aud/Yen. Wednesday's sudden Dlr/Yen buying and rumor of intervention are not accidental.

Sydney CD 23:46 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc, Very informative & educational as usual, friend. I noticed from all my searches that you highly recommend that book & so I have read it thoroughly & hopefully wont stop doing re-reading again & again. Are there any other books or specific sources / websites that you would suggest I cud study, observe ? Thank you.

shanghai bc 23:34 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

CD -- Good morning..TA is important as far as it can reflect the capital movement in the market because our job is to follow the capital moves in time..The thing is there are so many types of TA tech or analysis available in the market at present..Some TA tech and analysis speak the truth because they can tell reasonably in time where the money is going while most are simply voodoos..

The most important thing in TA is not about beautiful lines or colourful jargons..Simple is beautiful here too..Market is all about buying and selling and who buys more and who sells more in a given time,which is reflected in ranges and range-breakouts..Jessie Livermore has a classic teachings on how to trade the market in such situations and I guess that is 99% of the situation in the market..Ranges and range-breakouts and ranges again and range-breakouts again...Yin and Yang of the market..

Since forex market is a part of a bigger financial market,we may find the truth if we start with inter-market analysis,i.e. where the real money is going in other markets..Bond and stocks TA will tell you where the real money is going and that is vital for forex market TA analysis too..And once inter-market analysis is done,then ,continue with Cross-Market analysis in forex market because it will show where the real money is moving in forex market itself..Once Cross-Market analysis is done,then proceed with your target currency with pen and pencil to decide entry and exit point..

A good TA is absolutely necessary in analysing and excuting trades.。The trouble with most TA tech or analysis is ,they are voodoos rather than correctly reflecting the money trail..Any kind of TA which can follow the money-trail is a good TA..Good trades.

usa 23:30 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
divergence on 5min chart $/chf... watch for move to downside.... eur/$ may get a little pop.....not expecting much from the GBP but flat or down

Dammam A 23:02 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks"thremakasih" Aye ...I'm not expert but everything's possible in FOREX.

Sydney CD 22:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, but just repeating what I posted yesterday becos did not seem to get a response. If anyone else would like to opine when and if the market is a bit quiet, I would appreciate. TIA

Sydney CD 03:06 GMT September 16, 2004
I would like to know from the experienced traders on this forum (Shanghai bc, VA Raven, Athens, LA ArtofYen etc) about their thoughts on Technical Analysis and its importance. TIA.

ny dm 22:46 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
any of our friends from down under ? Are there polls in the election that are done ? and if so what are they like now and what have they done over the past week. I appreciate the help thanks.

usa 22:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I'm still short usd/chf tp=1.2630

jkt-aye 22:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
A, this is my fav ...

van revdax 20:00 GMT September 16, 2004
Tomorrow's Special(Sept 17)//No _long_ Euro/$ should be served. It is bad for your health.

Dammam A 22:24 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP
GT

Dallas GEP 22:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
A, Eur VERY range bound, 1.2220 probably will be POSSIBLE high although so far 1.22 had been pretty solid resistance. USD IMO will make gains against all currencies due to retracements from earlier action in US session. I see eur/gbp long because I think gbp/usd will short MORE than eur/usd will. I would look for usd/chf to go long as well.

Livingston nh 22:15 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
ML - past two days on VIA "A" some spikes in volume - options at 35 on both "A" and "B" are heavy on both puts and calls - "B" has 18,000 call contracts and 8200 put contracts at 35 and not much volume so both sides hoping for something tomorrow // Maybe some anchors have got puts

---
Fed reported today Foreign Holdings only rose 450 Mio (sell-off in non Treasury holdings) -- also money supply figures show some acceleration - this should continue as last years Q4 money growth was negative so the annual rates will look much larger in the next few months

Dammam A 22:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi all
GEP & others
What do you think about EUR/USD for this session?
Thanks & GL

Dallas GEP 22:08 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
OK bounce off 1.7920 was expected on GBP/USD for shorters. HIGH in US session was around 1.7947/8. Also going down, buyers will also be at 1.7900, 1.7880 and 1.7850/60.

ICT ML 21:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 19:37 GMT September 16, 2004
Thanks NH....I had just noticed it opened at almost 36 Monday and is around 34.75 now. Just curious if there is a tech target worth shooting for if the selling continues with the CBS losing its ratings even worse now. Perhaps I shall leave it alone for now and look again Monday.

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 21:08 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
long usd/jpy at 109,55 sl 109,15

boston mpd004 20:52 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
shorted cable @ 7940

jkt-aye 20:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
short cable here for 17860 stop 17980.

wisconsin tim 20:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
well just got hourly gbp/$ sell signal. taking small portion here with small stop will add later on other confirmation sigs.

Still waiting on E/$ sell but it's not happening yet
Still short E/Y as well

LA fxnew 20:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP!

Dallas GEP 20:04 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
FXNEW, depends on how long you want to hold it. 1.7900 would be FIRST target because there will be new buyers there but 1.7880 then 1.7850.

van revdax 20:00 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow's Special(Sept 17)//No _long_ Euro/$ should be served. It is bad for your health.

LA fxnew 19:56 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP:

If you are still out there ...
I know you are shorting cable .. what is your target?

TIA

Chicago Joe Barry 19:41 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
The following table shows the best- and worst-performing major currencies against the dollar.



Percent
Change

Best-performing:
British pound 0.77
Australian dollar 0.57
New Zealand dollar 0.47
Brazilian real 0.47
Canadian dollar 0.38
Japanese yen 0.26
Swedish krona 0.21
Mexican peso 0.17
Singapore dollar 0.12
South African rand 0.02

Worst-performing:
Euro -0.01
Danish krone -0.02
Taiwan dollar -0.10
Swiss franc -0.13
South Korean won -0.14
Norwegian krone -0.42


Copenhagen Livermore 19:39 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas,
Good luck!

Livingston nh 19:37 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
ML - I dont have VIA or VIAB down that much on my chart - mildly negative on s/t to 34 maybe

Dallas GEP 19:36 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
YEP Livermore, still SHORT

Livingston nh 19:31 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Cable battling at the 21 da sma level again - couldn't close above it last time and the swissy is having a similar problem with 21 da

Copenhagen Livermore 19:31 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas,
Still short gbp?

ICT ML 19:26 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Anyone who also follows equities have a tech view of a downside target for ViaCom? Has been Down $1.50 or 4% roughly so far today from what I saw earlier.

LA fxnew 19:24 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
raden:
why suddenly changed your view on cable?

QC Swap 19:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Shorted some NZD/USD at present levels.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I look eur/gbp cross will drive in this situation to drift eur/usd until get 1.2227 and push gbp/usd down. I am sorry forgot to remind you about top gbp/usd 1.7944 (in my archieve/level sell today.)..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:09 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
look the other room (gbp/jpy) got selling pressure after touch my number 196.68.be carefull !!..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:01 GMT September 16, 2004
exactly.LOL I will write like your posting, but late.
yeah I got conclusion that gbp/usd after touch 1.7945 still difficult to get 1.7978, but very high possibility move down from 1.7945 to 1.7899 and stay there in NY close..
better cut reverse now to follow gbp/usd selers today..

Dallas GEP 19:01 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Raden, you could be right of course but I don't see a GBP higher than the 1.7945/50 area at least in US session.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:54 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
yes..the message of gbp/usd that willgo to 1.7978 have be get caused by 1.7945 just now..
seen ready after touch 1.7934

chicago joe 18:52 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Raden, yesterday you said usd/cad will goto 1.3 from 1.296, has ur view changed? What do you think about this pair? TIA.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:51 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 18:48 GMT September 16, 2004
I hope will be atractive movement before NY close..
:-)

LAX-LGB SNP 18:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold daily appears to suggest impending sell-off

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
sorry.. I mean from low 1.7927 (not 7938). check 5 minutes chart.!!..

LA fxnew 18:48 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Raden:
given this limited time before NY session ends, is that possible for cable to go that high???

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:48 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd have get start level/low from 1.7938 to get 1.7978.be carefull with 1.7978 area. TOP extreme..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:41 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd finally got 1.7944, I think that level is top before, but seen will be broken today to get 1.7978
see my archieve !!..

Dammam A 18:35 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ...I'll try to catch the train...

sgp sp 18:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
It is the real Raden posting....

Dammam A 18:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Real;I think ...thremakasih

Dammam A 18:26 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Just wondering weather it's the real one or not?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:23 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy is on the start to go 133.68 as the top..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
buy more eur/usd. its time..
follow me 100% or againts 100% !!..

usa 18:10 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
indonesia... way to pick buddy!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:09 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd buyers !! lets go !!..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd have get 1.2174.ready?..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:01 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with eur/usd when touch 1.2174, maybe price shoot up from there to get 1.2227=TOP..

nyc tony 17:55 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I am glad we both made a little dough boston. gl gt

usa 17:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
sold usd/chf .2676

boston mpd004 17:46 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC/tony// I care, I took your trade and closed +15, thanks

nyc tony 17:43 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
not like anyone really cares but since i posted a trade opening ..... closed euryen at 133.55.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:41 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/chf will go to low corection at 1.2675 ,move from high 1.2731 and then move up from there to go 1.2819 and then move down strong..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:37 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
yes.. aud/usd have touched 0.6989, and will stay at tight range wait eur/usd and gpp/usd get my numbers..before follow move down..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:36 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad have reached 1.2874, I think that level will be finished from high 1.2900 and then chart wake up soo..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd seen give corection to 1.2173 before up to 1.2227 and then get big reversal..

NY GG 17:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Well, it seems we are going to be stuck in a range trading market for the next 6 weeks. All the TA points to this with the swiss, Euro, Yen, and cable firmly entrenched in fixed trading ranges. My strategy at this point is just to play the extremes of these ranges, particularly the Yen for 100 pip moves with a 30 pip stop using 8hour charts. I suppose we’ll all have to be patient until the “World's” next president is elected on November 2. After which point, watch out.

“WASHINGTON (AFP) - As the convention-time boost enjoyed by President George W. Bush (news - web sites) began to wane, he and rival John Kerry (news - web sites) were again running neck and neck less than two months ahead of the November 2 election.

According to the latest Harris Interactive poll posted on The Wall Street Journal's website Thursday, Kerry secured 48 percent of the intended vote, compared with 47 percent for Bush.”

HK Kevin 17:30 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
If we forget TA and simply trade base on price action, both EUR and Cable is a sell now with limited loss for maximzed profit. Sold EUR at 1.2192 and Cable at 1.7934, s/l ~20-30 pips.

roma ana 17:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
raden:do you see euro/usd going back towards 1.2050 in the next days?thanks a lot.

nyc tony 17:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
just checked the archive and I must say kudos to Raden Mas. Exceptional day sir, I hope you profit personally from your trades. gl gt

Sydney Alimin 17:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 17:22 GMT September 16, 2004

you meant at 1.7950?

usa 17:25 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpn thoughts indonesia??

usa 17:23 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
not chasing eur/usd or usd/chf... will wait for pullback then I'm all in -

LA fxnew 17:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
lets meet cable at 1.7850!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd let's go to 1.2227 !!!..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
clear signal gbp/usd will get 1.7978.be carefull to day all price will get reversal emotion.
let's see..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:11 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf clear to get 1..2640-30 before make new low at 1.2610. be careful maybe before go to 1.2610 will get buyers emotion at 1.2640-30..

wisconsin tim 17:07 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
not liking that flyer $/Y exiting here for small loss will look to reload lower

NYC YIPPEE 16:57 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
BRING BACK MEMPHIS CHARLES !!!
ALL WILL BE FORGIVEN !!!!


(I can't bel I am saying this !!!!...)

ro li 16:55 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Thank you all for your advice. Sorry to disturb. gt all.

Gold Coast martin 16:53 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Who ever you choose it does not make a great deal of difference...make sure that you study and follow basic fx principles or you will wind up a statistic like the other 90%....you worry is not which platform you choose,it is ensuring that you preserve your capital and manage it wisely...g/t

GVI john 16:51 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Please do not discusss brokers on the forum. Contact
[email protected]
for advice.

Thank you...

ro li 16:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, paris jb. gt.

ro li 16:47 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Geneva DC // Nice :)) What if I really like mercedes? What if I care more about the trip confort than about reaching from A to B? What if my Lada really leaks gas and oil and... pips? Can you recommenda good mercedes vendor? Thanks ;)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd seen ready to move up aain from 1.7921 to get 1.7978=top..
be carefull !! beter exit your sell now !!..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:39 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Well I am getting what I wished for a bounce from eur/usd pair at this time with resistance 1.2195-2205 as a top for now. With selling pressure from 1.2230-40 and 2260-70 area as the Bermuda triangle has the top T/L at 1.2300-20 area for now IMHO. GL GT

Geneva DC 16:36 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
ro li 16:27 GMT September 16, 2004

It doesn't matter which broker you use.
If you trade medium to long-term, which is the thing to do, a Mercedes will get you from A to B just as well as a Lada

nyc jk 16:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
hey Raton - it is a hedge, a Texas Hedge lol

nyc tony 16:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon forum.

Looks like the daily wedge on eurdol is still intact.
Only will consider trading her highness on the crosses.
Just went long euryen at 133.33.
euraud is the best trading range currently.

Good trades

Boca Raton 16:30 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
That is the danger of doubling up friends.

Dallas GEP 16:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
FXNEW,,,YES. As I said tho Cable at this time does look bullish but indicators are starting to show over bought conditions.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:27 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will go to 1.2227 before down again..
move from low 1.2154
lets see..

Pecs Andras 16:26 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I do not think it is worth shorting the dollar these days.
Note that we have had quite negative US data recently, and the dollar never really fell much.
And remember that back in the spring even if the data were positive but not matching whisper good numbers, dollar fell like a stone.
So I think sentiment has changed dramatically.

LA fxnew 16:24 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP:

your cable .. what is the target?
7820 ?

Boca Raton 16:23 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, thats not a hedge.

wisconsin tim 16:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
taking a flyer $/yen here

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd is on the start again to move up from low 0.6970 to 0.6990 again..

Dallas GEP 16:19 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Still holding gbp shorts....eur/gbp longs are somewhat hedging gbp/usd short possie tho as it has gone long from it's lows

Ina co'z 16:17 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Nice calls RADEN !!..good work !... GL !..:-))

usa 16:15 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
using the fibs I see

usa 16:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
impressive indonesia

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:11 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
hello.. eur/usd have touched 1.2189
check my view before about that.!!..

Van jv 16:08 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index of regional manufacturing fell to 13.4 this month from 28.5 in August.

The reading is lower than the median forecast of 25 in a Bloomberg News survey of 56 economists. Readings higher than zero indicate expansion.

``This shows that some kind of deep crack may be developing in the confidence of manufacturing managers that's at odds with economic fundamentals,''

romania nick 16:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Sept. Philly Fed 13.4 vs 28.5 in Aug!

SLC TJ 16:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
13.4 vs 28.5 in Aug

Pecs Andras 16:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
13.4!!

Toronto YV 16:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED 13.4 VS 28.5 IN AUG

wisconsin tim 16:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
[PHILLY FED DATA FOR SEPTEMBER] The headline index came in soft at 13.4 vs the prior 28.5, and expectations around 24 to 25. Not everything came in bleak, however. The orders index now stands at 26.4 vs a prior 19.2, while the employees index came in at 21.5 vs a prior 17.2. Prices paid, worryingly, also rose to 56.4 vs 53.7. The 6-month capital spending index dipped to 17.1 from 21.4, while the 6-month business conditions index fell to 44.9 from 52.7. A very mixed report, with a surprisingly soft headline.

romania nick 16:04 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
WOW!what happened????

Dallas GEP 16:04 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
PHIILY FED NUMVER IS WHAT????

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:01 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
look gbp/usd now !!!
wow..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:00 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius georgas 15:56 GMT September 16, 2004
yes, maybe you are right.
I hope not missunderstanding about my post.
I am sorry..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:58 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp for long term willgo to top 0.7004.
maybe from 0.6776 price will move up to get 0.6819(top)..

Budapest Daniel 15:58 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
think before post

Vilnius georgas 15:56 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas
u r talking with yourself?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:54 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/chf will go to 2.2819=top, move from low 2.2735..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
plan to buy again when touch 1.7999 for gbp/usd..

Sorry about my stement before. I mean not difficult to read chart but difficult in trade.

wisconsin tim 15:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
going to 8035 today? or target for tomorrow?

i wouldn't hold much weight in BOCA's comments ... his posts here are mainly to get under GEP's skin. The conspiracy theory in me says BOCA = GEP ...

=) jk

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:48 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will go to 1.2189 or 1.2200, be caefull when price touch that number !!..

Gold Coast martin 15:47 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 15:40 GMT September 16, 2004
Cyclone Ivan has really blown out your brains if you make statements like that about sterling....

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 15:39 GMT September 16, 2004
friend. that is only my art of statement..

LA fxnew 15:43 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
raton:

going to 8035 today? or target for tomorrow?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:42 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
friends.. not mean I will be proud here.
I am sorry before about that.
I want to inform you that is not difficult to read the chart and know the emotion of market. I hope can help you here always..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd now is on the start sinyal to shoot up again from 1.7910 !! lets' go ..

Boca Raton 15:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sterling is going to 1.8035. Dallas, are you going to sell more there? Its pretty expensive.

Copenhagen Livermore 15:39 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
dallas,
Yes, I think so. Still short gbp?

NYC YIPPEE 15:39 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   


"be carefull thats level is waited by so many sellers GBP/jpy.."


Why ?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:37 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy will go to 196.99.
be carefull thats level is waited by so many sellers GBP/jpy..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
to usd/cad players :
usd/cad will go to 1.2874..cut reverse there !! . focuse in sell now.

Dallas GEP 15:23 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Livermore in POSITION trading that probably is true

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
be carefull aud/usd have touch 0.6998..maybe sellers are here. see my archieve.!!!

Copenhagen Livermore 15:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas,
Fundamentals always win in the end.

Mtl JP 15:20 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Nick -> sept 21

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
16:00 GMT - Philadelphia Fed Index Market: 25.0 vs 28.5 last

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
plan buy gbp/usd when touch 1.7907 and 1.7898 TP = 1.7944

wisconsin tim 15:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
ss there's no reason to jump infront of a runaway bus just yet

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 15:15 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
CABLE IS IN REVERSE MODE , has bounced off the supp line / ondayly

yesterday generated buy signal by the macd

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 15:08 GMT September 16, 2004
like I said before about 1.7905 isconfirmation to get 1.7944

romania nick 15:12 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP // when will FED announce the rate decision?
thanx

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:11 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 14:48 GMT September 16, 2004
plan buy usd/jpy at 109.61, 109.51, 109.43

Los Angeles ss 15:08 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas -- how about cable now??

Mtl JP 15:08 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
nh / Phily Fed could surprise market's 25 on the upside given yesty's Empire

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 14:48 GMT September 16, 2004
109.43 = buy. wil go to 109.43

Livingston nh 14:56 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Expectation is for lower Philly Fed but big snapback in NY yesterday puts that in some doubt - Fed rate is going to pass ECB in Q4 and I am interested in any L/T thoughts on that

Dallas GEP 14:56 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Objectively I would say GBP looks bullish presently (I am short). I beleive tho top SHOULD be around 1.7915. 1,7905 is a key level also and that hasn't broken YET` Cable tho can be NASTY so be careful.

wisconsin tim 14:51 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
looking to buy/sell 109.40/110.20 usd/yen unless we get a data shocker/new release to change my mind

LA fxnew 14:48 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
hi raden
whats your view on usd.jpy

thanks

Calabash TarHeel 14:45 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Out of here. Happy trades to all!

hk ab 14:43 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
To be precise, all I can say is the dlr/chf 2 years t/l has been borken in weekly chart....

hk ab 14:42 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel... Yes, I am doing that....
what's more is, SNB hike = eur/chf and gbp/chf move up?!
And eur/gbp just can't wait.

Calabash TarHeel 14:38 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 14:36 GMT September 16, 2004
Ab, thought you liked
Shssssss! Shsssssss!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:37 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
okay.. gbp/usd willgo to 1.7944 after show 1.7904. buy !! be carefull with that level = top

hk ab 14:36 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
strangely, still no body observed the yen crosses now... yummy yummy....

Calabash TarHeel 14:34 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Copenhagen Livermore 14:26 GMT September 16, 2004
Again go back to G'spans comments. Fed will move at a measured pace.
gl,gt

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:31 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
now is the buying reaction from low 1.2119 for eur/usd

Dallas GEP 14:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
More gbp shorts @ 1.7896

Copenhagen Livermore 14:26 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston,
OK, but with tame inflation FED should be in no hurry to make new rate hikes.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
IMHO= In My Humble Opinion

Ldn pm 14:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
An open question – do banks in the UK still have to fill in Bank of England overnight position returns, and does this happen in other countries? Just thinking that if this is the case could not major Cbks compare ‘global positioning’ and then decide their daily fx strategy accordingly. Seems there are often times when you feel a currency should move in a certain direction and it moves in exactly the opposite one. Would appreciate any insights, even if only to rubbish my thoughts !

QC Swap 14:20 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Waiting for possible long EUR/GBP

Copenhagen Livermore 14:20 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

Dallas & Miami,

IMHO - what's that?

Livingston nh 14:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Copenhagen - the Fed Funds rate has been under the inflation rate since the beginning of the year - so the real rate is negative (easy money) - we are far from a tight money policy at this level - As Tarheel as pointed out the Fed is on its way to neutral (where investment and savings supposedly balance)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Next up is the Philly Fed index data at 1600 gmt. The market seems to be itching to buy $ so any positive number will probably take the support out for eur/usd pair IMHO.

Calabash TarHeel 14:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 13:56 GMT September 16, 2004
Yes Oil man, very good to see you again. Hope all is good with you.
Take Care

Copenhagen Livermore 14:11 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

Dallas,

I agree. It's not easy to be a fundamental trader...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:09 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Good to hear from you Oil Man hope you are doing well these days thanks for sharing your thoughts on the FX market. Next support waiting to be taken for eur/usd pair is 1.2080-90. I would have liked a better bounce to take place before the attempt to take out the support IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 14:08 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
OK Livermore I agree BUT IMO it is best to wait 30minutes to an hour AFTER a release to enter a new possie because the DATA is unimportant compared to the PERCEPTION of what the data MEANS and you WON'T know that immediately. So PERCEPTION is REALITY and that is what moves the market.

Calabash TarHeel 14:07 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 13:58 GMT September 16, 2004
G'span also stated that the Fed rate needs to move to neutral, that being probably 3.5/4.0%. My thinking is that over the next 15 months 8 to 10 .25bp hikes are penciled in.
Fwiw & Invho.
gl,gt

Van jv 14:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
"U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose in August after a jump in trading at clothing and shoe stores, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates for a sixth time by the end of the year" Bloomberg
/just for GBP considerations/

Copenhagen Livermore 14:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

Livingston,

But you kill growth with rate hikes without inflation.

Copenhagen Livermore 14:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

Dallas,

The problem with two releases at the same time is that you don't know which one the market will focus on, if they are mixed.

Dallas GEP 13:59 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
YES utlitimately BUT they have to be considered because if you remember NFP a couple of weeks ago was 20 and it was forecasted to be 330K so THAT was trend changing and technical indicators had to catch up.

Livingston nh 13:58 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Copenhagen - the Fed is not raising interest rates because of inflation - G'span says inflation is transitory - the rate hikes are to correct an accommdative policy (easy money)

UAE Oil man 13:56 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
£/$ good downside potential for long marcher's to SOB close to 1.8150 during the next few sessions with a risk reversal over 1.8250(where things might be changing direction yet again ,or just ranging , but eyes always open for an adversary move against existing positions , as analysis are fine as long as they are not too costy) for potential targets 1.7500 and once 1.7460 breaks 1.6899..

€$, still locked in a trading range with next confirmations located at 1.2020 and upside at 1.2360, I am still € bearish for the long term and in SOB's on each adverse move of the $ against the euro.

$/Yen Offers good potential of a sustained up move as long as 108.50 figures holds from here with a target of 1001 pip above current level entries, resistance located at 110.60 area which has to break to see a sustained and trendy upward move.

€£ Great potential here at 68+ for the next downmove towards 64 and 60 in the next few months..enjoy adverse moves and SOB at this entry levels with 6920 as risk tolerance.

AUD$, the wondrous pip rainer, as usual behaving in orderly fashion towards monthly targets at .6000 , sell points 7080/7120 , with a 'small risk' tolerance.

GL .

Copenhagen Livermore 13:55 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   


Dallas,

So indicators are more important than eco news?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:54 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd have touched 1.7900. readyfor sell just now?
also eur/usd have touch 1.2119 have bought?
also usd/chf have touched 1.2738 have sold?
check my archieve today.
follow me 100 % or againts 100% !!

wisconsin tim 13:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
well if that $/yen diamond I posted last night is gonna hold we need to contain 110.30ish on the top and 109.30ish on the bottom ... so far so good

Dallas GEP 13:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Livermore...techinical indiocators almost across the board indicate GBP should short data notwithstanding. Drop could be 100+ pips

Copenhagen Livermore 13:47 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   


But the markets seems to ignore the very important inflation data and only focus on a better jobless claims than expected. Very strange for a fundamental trader...

Copenhagen Livermore 13:43 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   


According to MNI there goes a story around that CPI was even worse for dollar than reported. The number was only 0.0528%, but it was rounded up to 0,1%.

Important? Yes, because with tame inflation we don't need more rate hikes.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Did not know that Martin that is interesting. I did not know it was that bad. Indicators on my 1hr charts for the eur/usd pair have bounced some from the O/S area and prices are trying to drill a hole in the bottom T/L once again.

Illinois DB 13:39 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh THANKS.

Copenhagen Livermore 13:39 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

Dallas,

Why short gbp? UK had a strong retails sales report today. But US had a tame inflation report and a negative capital flow data report.

wisconsin tim 13:39 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
with things pretty quiet post-data ... i have a feeling e/g might have the bottom drop out more with E/$ flat and G/$ being the latest "darling" fwiw

LA fxnew 13:38 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gep:
careful this gbp/usd will go to 7960

wisconsin tim 13:30 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/$ fibs on 1.8032-1.7737 -> 1.7919/1.7885/1.7850

Dallas GEP 13:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP @ 1.7882

wisconsin tim 13:26 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Well, thought I'd be full in by now ... moving stops a little above BE

wisconsin tim 04:18 GMT September 16, 2004
well, was on the wrong side yesterday on e/y (even after I was bearish all week on it) ... idiot
Selling here small position with wide stop ... above 134.25 will add at 133.09 which is my close s1 sell level. Will also add at 133.90 (if seen)

Gold Coast martin 13:24 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:20 GMT September 16, 2004
FWIW...The independent forex traders in oz have flatly refused to be interviewed by bloomberg in relation to currency matters...only institutional robots get their heads in there....due to their continued dollar -bashing policy...fwiw...

wisconsin tim 13:23 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
i'd wait on those gbp/$ sells ... but that's just me

KL Micky 13:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
i think the downtrend for cable has begun.when do you think the next resistance?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:20 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Actually Bloomberg is to blame this time around. ;-)

Gold Coast martin 13:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I.F.R=IMBECILIC FEDERATION ROUND-UP....

Syd 13:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

About 15 minutes old.


12:59 Bid Up On Rumors Of Huge Iraq Explosion

Chicago Irish 13:15 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
OK Correction.....Inaccurate Financial Rumours

Gold Coast martin 13:15 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
SYD....tHE STORY IS THAT THE IRAQI MINISTRY HAS SAID that 1700 iraqi police have been killed and 3000 wounded since the conflict started.....FWIW

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Syd 13:10 GMT September 16, 2004
Market is getting tired of this spook stories that are conveniently released when the market is vulnerable IMHO.

Copenhagen Livermore 13:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

Syd: Old news.

Tor Pumpkin 13:12 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
from GVI
LA Mel 13:09 GMT September 16, 2004
ok apparently that rumor was misleading ( of ocurse ) the iraqi interoior ministry announced that 1700 iraqi police have been killed and 3000 wounded since the iraqi conflict started

Chicago Irish 13:12 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
IFR.......Interesting Financial Rumours

Syd 13:10 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
this just came on IFR but I cant find it anywhere , they may be trying to move market like the fiasco with the one last week someone mentioned getting the spelling wrong.

(Euro Bid Up On Rumors Of Huge Iraq Explosion IFR)

Copenhagen Livermore 13:10 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

Capital Flow Data should not be positive for dollar:

Foreign net purchases down from 74B to 64B.
Foreign purchases of T-bonds down from 40B to 22B.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:09 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
64B on the TIC data. No real news to move the market IMHO. GL GT

Van jv 13:08 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
TIC?

Livingston nh 13:07 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
dol== http://ows.doleta.gov/press/2004/091604.html

boston mpd004 13:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Toronto/aviator//yeah, the trade had a good feel to it. Congrats to you and good luck.

Illinois DB 13:03 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
What I meant is report is at
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
but it's last week's report still, not updated yet.

dc fxq 13:03 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
just trying to keep you honest and on your toes. :-)

TORONTO aviator 13:03 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
boston mpd004 12:13 GMT
I am out also GBP/USD.
Thank you for the great comms over the past 24 hrs and successful outcome.
I believe this exchange of info is what this forum should be all about.
GL & GT

Illinois DB 13:02 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know where to view the UI report?
I don't see it on the DOL site. TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:57 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
You guys are to fast for me to correct LOL. Of course this was blamed this time on our friend the Frances (hurricane).

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:56 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for the error I meant to say last month was revised to 317k the actual numbers posted today were 333k. Again sorry for the error on my comments. GL GT

dc fxq 12:55 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
wrong OMIL - median "guess" was 343k low end of consensus was 335k. It WS somewhat better than expected.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIW jobless claims were expected to be 317k and posted higher at 333k that was not good for $ everything else is still in the range. GL GT

Copenhagen Livermore 12:43 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

US data mixed: tame inflation, but jobless claims better than expected.

melb MA 12:39 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Mkt wary of going short dollars after yesterday?

bucharest d.g. 12:34 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
thks nick, my censored news just expired :)

melb MA 12:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
any revisions?

romania nick 12:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Aug. consumer price index up modest 0.1%
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer prices rose a modest 0.1 percent in August, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Energy costs declined for the second month in a row. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.1 percent for the third straight month. The inflation data was better than expected. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.2 percent and the core rate to rise 0.2 percent. Over the past 12 months, the CPI has risen 2.7 percent. The core rate is up 1.7 percent.

Pecs Andras 12:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
CPI 0.1%
claims 333 K

boston mpd004 12:27 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
LDN/Bob// thanks...GL GT

LDN Bob 12:25 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

boston mpd004 12:13....

....good trade CAPITAN....congrats.....

Budapest Daniel 12:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, is this excel sheet a usefull tool for you? Do you rely on it?

Pecs Andras 12:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP
So you are afetr my stop, friend?
LOL

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:15 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I think aud/usd when touch 0.6986 will go down from there.

Dallas GEP 12:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Daniel .6845

Copenhagen Livermore 12:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

12,30 GMT:

US CPI with and without auto and energy m/m:

Consensus: 0.2

boston mpd004 12:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
out gbp/usd +109 from last night

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:10 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
are ready for sell gbp/usd when touch 1.7900?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:09 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
are you ready for sell usd/chf when touch 1.2737-45?

paris jb 12:04 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
swissy waiting euro move likely

Copenhagen Livermore 12:03 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

SNB says that inflation will average 0.7% this year, but will peak 1,2% 1Q next year. Growth this year: 0.7%

Pecs Andras 12:02 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
01 SWISS ECON: SNB raises Key Int. Rate Target Band To 0.25-1.25%]

Toronto YV 12:02 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
SNP=SNB

Toronto YV 12:01 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
SNP +0.25

swiss 12:00 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
PLEASE SNB

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:55 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
SEATTLE, Wash. (AP) -- U.S. information tech sector lost 403,300 jobs from Mar 2001 to Apr 2004..mkt for tech work bleak. 206,300 jobs lost after "experts" declared recession over in November 2001, say research: U. of Illinois-Chicago. San Francisco CA hi-tech employment shrank 49%, Boston shrank 34%, Seattle 10.8%.

Growing fears: existing jobs will be lost to outsourcing, increased interest in unionizing at companies: Sun, Apple. & Micro$oft. "We are really starting to see the beginnings of a high-tech labor movement in this country" Full story HERE. Though U.S. added 144,000 jobs in Aug, overall has lost 913,000 since President Bush took office.

Copenhagen Livermore 11:46 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

12.00 GMT:

A rate hike of 1/4 expected in Swiss.

Copenhagen Livermore 11:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Jobless Claims 12.30 GMT:

Last week we had only 319K, but this was because of seasonal adjustment, not improvement in the labor market. So this week we can expect af bigger number. Consensus: 340K. Consensus range: 324-360K.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
No VBA in there.

Budapest Daniel 11:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
i see bahrain... is it useful for you? do you rely on this sheet?

how does it work, where does it receive the data because i cannot see anything in the visual basic editor, id it communicating wit a dde server?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel ///
Sound OK?

QC Swap 11:25 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Now getting rid of EUR/GBP short

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:23 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Now saying this
EURUSD 1.2327 1.2156 Place Buy Order
USDJPY 110.4497 109.1254
GBPUSD 1.8119 1.7733
USDCHF 1.2669 1.2512 Place Sell Order
EURCHF 1.5462 1.5372
AUDUSD 0.7047 0.6874
USDCAD 1.3024 1.2842
NZDUSD 0.6654 0.6501
EURGBP 0.6856 0.6801 Place Buy Order
EURJPY 135.4786 133.2822 Place Buy Order
GBPJPY 198.6182 194.8491
CHFJPY 87.9179 86.3098
GBPCHF 2.2675 2.2462 Place Sell Order

Ldn pm 11:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Swiss fx
Rate announcement due in 40 minutes

Gold Coast martin 11:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD..At 17885-90 ..provides perfect entry for daily target of 17775....or even better 17690 for 7 day target....g/t

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 11:18 GMT September 16, 2004

Will Update the Live data every 10 minutes...comparies the levels...and recommends trades

Budapest Daniel 11:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:12 GMT September 16, 2004


whats this exactly?

Sydney Alimin 11:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
wow, just came back from hsbc's seminar and gbp printed 1.7871!! i am sad for missing such a move and i am also happy for not entering the short....ok guys, ready for jobless claim number and CPI

Dammam A 11:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
hello
Any thoughts about gbp/usd?will it reach 1.7900 soon or not?
Thank you

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:12 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
any downloaded this file?
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Currencies.xls

swiss fx 11:11 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Is anybody knows about SNB rate decision

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 11:00 GMT September 16, 2004 //
Not sure...
I have as a buy at 109.12...I can only say that.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:03 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
More GBP/CHF short

Haifa ac 11:00 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:44 //It feels like below 109 is fast 107. That is why I asked about LARGE options expiring next few days.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 10:40 GMT September 16, 2004
I am longing at 109.12

Haifa ac 10:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY 109 puts. ANy one knows if large options in that area are expiring?

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:38 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
hello.
gbp/usd have near 1.7885.
be carefull with band until 1.7900. maybe price down from this area. be carefull !! sell !!

Tallinn viies 10:35 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
starting to cool?
wishful thinking I guess

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:35 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:32 GMT September 16, 2004
Eur/GBP IN long @ 6802

Just bought some...Thanks

Budapest Daniel 10:35 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I've entered eur/gbp at 0.6807. Hope to be higher from now on...

Dallas what is your target point?

Tallinn viies 10:34 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
fwiw
BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's crude oil imports totaled 9.33 million metric tons in August, or an average of 2.21 million barrels a day, slightly lower than the 9.61 million tons recorded in July, the China Securities Journal reported Thursday.

Dallas GEP 10:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Eur/GBP IN long @ 6802

melbourne farmacia 10:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 06:49 GMT September 16, 2004
Big picture still good IMO.... looking for 1.7886 on current retracement.... Dow weekly period 20 sept.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
and shorted gbp/chf

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:17 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Buying some eur/jpy here

Dallas GEP 10:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Hurricane Ivan MISSED New Orleans which is VERY good because they are BELOW sea level. 1 million residents were evacuated in anticipation but are now returning

honolulu Byron 10:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
e/g, let's meet up @6750 or lower

ro li 10:11 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sofia Milen // Thanks a lot!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:07 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
The cells that are green...Meaning the trend is Up...and red is for the other way.
Mostly now are green.
And telling me to accumalte Euro and Short Chf at the moment.

Dallas GEP 10:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/09/16/hurricane.ivan/index.html

Alabama being hit now

Sofia Milen 10:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Li/ I mean C/M/C and dont try others.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:00 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Don't use the file more then 2 days.
Levels might change...so!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:59 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys...
Just FTP ed an excel file
kick Back and trade with style
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Currencies.xls
it will update the live data every 10 Minutes
and will tell you to place an order on what..
if rather me email it...ask Jay

Dallas GEP 09:58 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Longing usd/cad around 1.2930 is usually a pretty good possie.

ro li 09:57 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
HK Byron // Sorry about that. Thanks a lot.

Dallas GEP 09:56 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Andras, 6795 is prett strong support If it breaks THAT your target is done. If not we COULD see a retest of the highs in a couple of sessions, Eur/gbp is not particularly good for day trading because of the SLOWNESS in it's movement but it's GREATER attributes are 18.00 a pip value and the fact it DOESN'T go crazy with data, Eur/chf is similiar except maybe for SNB annoucements

Pecs Andras 09:43 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP
I think both of us may win this one. I am not good at daytrading this par, like you, and I have read some analyses on it saying that the top may be in place now, and with the strong UK data today I may keep it for a few days.
First target is 6760

eur lg 09:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Pecs in ref to your usd chf comment earlier the mkt is waiting for the decision from the Swiss National Bank to see if they raise interest rates. This is also accompanied by their quarterly monetary assessment. Should come around 14:00 today.

Dallas GEP 09:38 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Andras HELLO my friend, where were you going to TP on your eur/gbp short???

Pecs Andras 09:36 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:33 GMT September 16, 2004
You may get it soon, mate. But I am short the pair already.
GL

honolulu Byron 09:35 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
ro li 09:29 GMT // why u r not happy about it?

PAR 09:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
By adopting the Euro Germany gave up all the comparative economic advantages it had over the rest of Europ. Germany had the strongest currency, the Buba was the best central bank of the world while the rest of Europ devalued their currencies every three years. The biggest victim of the Euro has been Germany while most other european countries all of a sudden reaped the benefits of very low interest rates and a relatively stable currency. En plus Germany pays the biggest part of the european budget while everybody keeps talking about how sick and weak the German economy is .

Dallas GEP 09:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Order waiting to long eur/gbp @ 6800. Longing Euro around 1.2142 would be about same thing, USD/JPY shorts from 110.26 now closed

Sofia Milen 09:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Li/Use 1st one to the left. Forget for others. From expirience.

Pecs Andras 09:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Something must be brewing here.
I don't remember seeing USD CHF staying in a 30 pip range since NY close well into the London session

GOES B747 09:24 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
imo, UK economy is too big to stay away from joining EUR.
somehow, I have a feeling (personal) that when the current cloudy-gloomy mood in UK will reverse; EUR supporters will be in a position to take FAST move to join the EUR.

calling time frame for this move is bit difficult now, but when it will become not a gamble but a call, I will call. :-)

gt

hk ab 09:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Seems nobody remembers the "gbp--> eur memorandum" now....

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 09:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
confrmation to get 1.7885 is if show us 1.7865 (bid)

Gold Coast martin 09:19 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 09:13 GMT September 16, 2004
GBP becoming EURO...It will be like selling a rolls royce to buy a russki LADA....It will be financial and political suicide for UK...If adopted UK will become another Germany...g/t

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 09:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd will go to 1.7885. be carefull maybe gbp/usd sellers will act there.

GOES B747 09:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip,

your comments about the real-estate markets made me to ask questions among some players within the UK property playgrounds.

they all mentioned that UK/GBP joining the EUR lands will bring UK housing property prices much higher than current levels; but they also argued that such a move is truly a 50/50 call.

none of them agreed to call timeframe for GBP becoming EUR.

gt

hk ab 09:09 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
747// I think the most surprised group is the eur/gbp longers and gbp/chf shorters......
Watch the show...

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 09:09 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
"Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 08:28 GMT September 16, 2004
My suggestion to the fake id person. If you do it again , I will jump from my houseroof and write to police it is because you.
Please dont disturbing me.
I am very angry with you , and will commit you intercourse if you do again.
Warning from Real raden"

my question :
what's intercourse ? pleasehelp to explain. my English is bad.

PAR 09:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Core EMU inflation again above ECB target and real inflation certainly five times higher than ECB studies show - but Trichet , he remains vigilant .

Gen dk 08:59 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 08:58 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I have open short gbp/usd 1,7845 sl 1,7890 limit 1,7720
What is Your opinion?

Pecs Andras 08:51 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Is it not time now to short EUR/GBP?
There seems to be a top in place at 6855

GOES B747 08:47 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
PAR 08:44 GMT September 16, 2004

it is very logic that Asian names knew about the strong UK sales; factories knows before you that you will buy.
salesmen knows what is the prices that will make you to BUY; leakage is not the case.

gt

PAR 08:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks like good UK retail sales had been leaked hence the strong performance of GBP overnigth.

Copenhagen Livermore 08:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Good UK data: Retails sales 0.6% m/m. 6.5% y/y. A big surprise. But can the good news start a new cable rally?

Los Angeles ss 08:42 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Ron -- much higher than expected retail sales pushed GBP up.

Pecs Andras 08:42 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Ron
See the post below on strong retail sales data

Brisbane Ron 08:41 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Any news on cable for sudden move???

Baz JW 08:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Someone is obviously very infantile - hope GV sorts it out soon.

KW fxstu 08:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:31 GMT September 16, 2004
Most of the people know your posts Raden...
Who are familier with your language from long back can easily idenify your posts. Any how some of here are entertainment disturbing others who are here for some purpose...
bloody hackers....

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:36 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd have get 1.7841. that's top. see my archieve !!

Gold Coast martin 08:34 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 03:42 GMT September 16, 2004
chester wb 03:33 GMT September 16, 2004
For 24 hours look for the aud to trade at a low of 6955 down to 6895-69 by end of ny trading...the medium to long term bias is still down.....g/t
PECS,,,,,Above post still applies....for kiwi look for 6474 after trading at a high of 6579....same timeframe ...g/t

Pecs Andras 08:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, up 0.6%
Y/Y up 6.5%

Pecs Andras 08:31 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
UK retail sales up 0.5%!!!

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:31 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
this is not from me my friends !!
Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 08:28 GMT September 16, 2004
My suggestion to the fake id person. If you do it again , I will jump from my houseroof and write to police it is because you.
Please dont disturbing me.
I am very angry with you , and will commit you intercourse if you do again.
Warning from Real raden

GOES B747 08:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 08:14 GMT September 16, 2004

valid for the next 3-4 weeks

GBP/JPY: 191.60...193.20... (looks base will from between this two)...196.40 -->> 204.40

do not use leverage higher than 1:7.5 before 196.40/50 gives up....if you cannot stand with such a leverage, then leave it!


gt

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:26 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will go to 1.2278 soon as first step before go to 1.2200.
be carefiull when touch 1.2196.maybe sellers wait there.

Pecs Andras 08:23 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi Martin
How about aussi and kiwi?
I have made a few good pips on your very good suggestions recently!
TIA

Haifa ac 08:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:55 GMT September 15, 2004

A full-Moon is still 2 weeks away..//

also 6, 10 , 14,18,22,26,30,34 weeks away.
Rather consistent bugger. Also repetitious.
The ONLY MOON who is credible is Reverend Moon! (Sun Myung!)
http://www.rotten.com/library/bio/religion/cult/sun-myung-moon/

Gold Coast martin 08:19 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 08:14 GMT September 16, 2004
Yes Daniel.....leave it alone as it can wipe you in an instant....g/t

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:15 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
try buy usd/jpy at 109.62. see my archieve.

Budapest Daniel 08:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
any view on gbp/jpy now?

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:10 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I have tested how easy to write with other ID like I want.
I am stupid know that now. LOL

hk ab 08:07 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
nt// Tiime for the thoughts on aud and audjpy.

Maybe the big hand cna help us to lift the aud/jpy up.....

leeds jb 08:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
anybody know the release time of the chf update

kw hhh 08:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
test

Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 08:02 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 08:01 GMT September 16, 2004
in English is so sorry about that someone.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 08:01 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Raden, what is "kacian dech lu..." in English?

KW fxstu 07:59 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
seems BUY postion came for $/Yen now to take 30 pips upword...
GT & GL.

Budapest Daniel 07:56 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
GV, may I offer my programming knowledge to do some changes on this forum?

slv sam 07:55 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:19 GMT September 15, 2004
sell 109.80 and more at 110.30 and count porofit...GT

hope other traders counting profit as well!GT

Stockholm AGuy 07:54 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 07:46 GMT
>can we do something about this fake and real ID thing?

Password-protect poster IDs so only one user can have a given ID. Forum already uses login passwords, so shouldn't be hard to implement (same password, just add an ID field to user records; check it for conflicts only when changed, use current ID by default when posting, no check needed).

Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 07:53 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
KW fxstu 07:43 GMT September 16, 2004
your questin is not to me. so need not answer.

KW fxstu 07:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
GV must take action to resolve this!

Gold Coast martin 07:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Both Radens should wear a rubber on their heads and they will be d...ck..heads...lol....this charade is very entertaining,,,,,

Budapest Daniel 07:48 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Yes we can. Pray for global-view to change forum style where usernames can be registered ASAP! This is getting ridiculous!

Sydney Alimin 07:46 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
this sucks, can we do something about this fake and real ID thing?

Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 07:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
to my bad friend whom use my ID :
better trade than bussy in copy and paste your false information with my ID. waste time for you and you get nothing.
follow me or againts, in trade you will get profit..but... I am sorry about you..."kacian dech lu..."

chicago joe 07:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
lol this is too funny, who is the rel raden

KW fxstu 07:43 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dear Raden!
Are you confident, that we can see GBP/USD at 1.76 today. I think Today it loves to play above 1.78.

Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 07:41 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
this is not from me :
please note my language style. you can know from me or not.
"Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:37 GMT September 16, 2004
I am full confidenz Euro/usd will kiss 1.20 tonight .
Also buy at 1.20 for 1.27 by month end"
to someone whom use my ID :
likely you can not sleep with your bad plan today about using my ID. LOL

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:37 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I am full confidenz Euro/usd will kiss 1.20 tonight .
Also buy at 1.20 for 1.27 by month end

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:36 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
ok.confirmation about gbp/usd about 1.7825 have be get wgen show us 1.7803, but before go there usually move down for a while in that pattern.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

be carefull with Aud/usd when touch 0.6903..maybe down.or up.
Wear your belts and rubber!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:31 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIW one more thing to be noted for the traders that follow chart patterns and I may have said this before about the infamous Bermuda triangle we have been for a while now for the eur/usd pair. I believe a descending triangle (usually a bearish pattern) has been forming all along on the daily and the last drop from resistance 1.2300-10 is confirming this very thing now. A break of the 1.2035-35 bottom T/L from May 2004 will confirm with a further break of 1.1970-80 to finally to test the low of this year and beyond IMHO. GL GT

Texas gangster 07:30 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Remember what happened to USD/YEN last year september?
Sell spikes till 107 atleast,Imho

Budapest Daniel 07:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Raden, when you're refering to a number as a supposed reversal point, then which side are you thinking of? The mid, bid or ask?

Budapest Daniel 07:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Thank you, thank you for such a quick help guys!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:27 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
hello !
be carefull with gbp/usd when touch 1.7801..maybe down.

Bangkok AC 07:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi Daniel

Try here
http://www.netdania.com/QuoteList.asp

Budapest Daniel 07:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Thank you guys! Apperciate your help!

Budapest Daniel 07:17 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Extremely bearish USD means, that eur/usd will go up very soon??

Roumeli anka 07:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Buda... http://www.dailyfx.com/fxpowerchart/ChartStation.html

Dammam A 07:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Budapest
http://www.dailyfx.com/fxpowerchart/ChartStation.html

London chippie 07:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
daniel ---data and tools to the right of the screen ...fx charts

LAX-LGB SNP 07:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 07:14 GMT September 16, 2004
i use the dailyfx website sometimes

London 07:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
USD Overview
On the surface a big over reaction to the NY manufacturing data, but what was really happening was as suspected yesterday, the USD shorts like our selves had to bail out. Being among the first to do so is always a good idea.

From here the view remains the same, extremely bearish the USD.

FxMax

Budapest Daniel 07:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
btw. can anyone write me a link for a free live chart if there are any? mine is not working now. :-/

Budapest Daniel 07:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
good mourning guys. what about entering a short position on gbp/usd after it reaches 1.8000?

prague viktor 07:01 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
g.morning...any 4cast for the( Forgn Purch US Secs) tia

Roumeli anka 06:54 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
usually the fist move Europe morning is fake

hk 06:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 06:44 GMT September 16, 2004
why are you disappointed?

KL KL 06:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia, good day...gbpusd looking a bit weak but mind is telling me to long at 1.77 but chart sentiments is telling to sell rally. What is your take ? Any other dates for turn on the DOW and ASX200 or Hang Seng...Sep 16 looks like a minor turn or no turn....TIA

Sydney Alimin 06:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
i am well disappointed if we dont see 1.78 before going down, looks like it might be the case now

Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 06:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
sorry..still leepy now. LOL
usd/jpy
Level Sell :
110.49
110.63
111.15
111.36
Level buy :
109.96
109.86
109.73
109.62
108.60


Usd/chf
Level Sell :
1.2711
1.2738
1.2782
1.2806
Level buy :
1.2643
1.2622
1.2595
1.2442

Sydney Alimin 05:55 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 05:52 GMT September 16, 2004

agree there ML, just need more buyers to push the price up to the level i plan to sell

ICT ML 05:52 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Think we're going to sell cable between 1.7800 and 1.7840 for 1.7700 and 1.7600 for swing trade. Thinking 1.7850 stop max, if goes there I'm wrong anyway.Missed all of yesterdays killer moves due to admin tasks.

London 05:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Three UK Nationals Said To Be Abducted In Iraq

Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 05:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 05:37 GMT September 16, 2004
LOL.thanks
Eur/usd
Level Sell :
1.2196
1.2225
1.2254
1.2322
Level Buy :
1.2119
1.2110
1.2076

Toronto WR 05:43 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Can't post in GVI so I will post here for SF TG and others, it is relevant fo FX IMO butperhaps belongs on political forum;

Far graver than Vietnam

Most senior US military officers now believe the war on Iraq has turned into a disaster on an unprecedented scale

Sidney Blumenthal

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1305441,00.htm

hk m 05:37 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tm : looks like USDJPY break up only being held back by yen strenght vs eur, chf and gbp. If that abates perhaps we see a new trading range above 110.60

wisconsin tim 05:37 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
raden, hey mate you are showing gbp for eur

Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 05:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd
Level Sell :
1.7823
1.7841
1.7885
1.7944
1.7978
Level Buy :
1.7716
1.7694
1.7597

Gbp/usd
Level Sell :
1.7823
1.7841
1.7885
1.7944
1.7978
Level Buy :
1.7716
1.7694
1.7597

Aud/usd
Level sell :
0.6968
0.6979
0.6998
0.7063
Level buy :
0.6920
0.6894
0.6858

Usd/Jpy
Level Sell :
1.2711
1.2738
1.2782
1.2806
Level buy :
1.2643
1.2622
1.2595
1.2442

Gold
Level sell :
407.40 (major)
414.00 (major)

Level buy :
403.00
398.70

Best Regards,
Raden Mas

wisconsin tim 05:24 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
diamond formation?? What do you think ... wishful thinking?

the Diamond is not a common pattern. ... it rarely occurs at Bottom Reversals. It's natural habitat is Major Tops but will also show as a continuation pattern (broadening formation). Often times it will develop into a symetrical triangle

... Edwards and Magee

Singapore Sfx 05:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
12 gmt

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 05:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Good morning! When SNB due statement? TIA

melbourne farmacia 05:02 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
chester wb - will reply once I finish running daily Gbp/Jpy numbers.. GT

wisconsin tim 04:45 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I'd wait for the turn up in 13ema v 5ema to confirm the hourly MACD but that's just me ... with stop below 1.2132 ?

HKG SK 04:31 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Time to buy Euro???

wisconsin tim 04:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
btw gv I sent you an easy fix to all these formatting problems with posters like me

wisconsin tim 04:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
dang it sorry Jay missed closing a tag

wisconsin tim 04:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
well, was on the wrong side yesterday on e/y (even after I was bearish all week on it) ... idiot

anyhow, daily trix indicator as just turned South and still within TL. DMI is now negative just need to see if adx comes above 20 to indicate a trend. Currently below 133.65 which i have as 1st fib., next fib comes in around 133.30. Selling here small position with wide stop ... above 134.25 will add at 133.09 which is my close s1 sell level. Will also add at 133.90 (if seen)

Gold Coast martin 04:07 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 03:57 GMT September 16, 2004
Really pleased to hear you did well on those pairs ....g/t

London chippie 04:04 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
anyone keeping an eye on the eur/chf......targeting 1.5345 with any luck!

wisconsin tim 03:57 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gold, never did thank u yest on your views of $/yen and a/$ ... they helped me pull the trigger yesterday when it came to both pairs.

Los Angeles ss 03:52 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Good morning, Raden Mas. Views on GBP/USD today? Thanks

London chippie 03:51 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
good morning raden!!

Sydney CD 03:50 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Houston, Will do. I am a viewer of the forum for a long time and have searched and learnt a lot here. I just wanted to hear more. Thank you. What are your thoughts on Techs ? TIA

Indonesia_solo Raden Mas 03:48 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
good morning everybody !!

Gold Coast martin 03:42 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
chester wb 03:33 GMT September 16, 2004
For 24 hours look for the aud to trade at a low of 6955 down to 6895-69 by end of ny trading...the medium to long term bias is still down.....g/t

wisconsin tim 03:41 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 9/16/2004 -- yesterday +270 (E/$, G/$, E/Y, U/CHF)/392 pips (all pairs)...(no spreads)
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
9/15/2004 AUDUSD 0.6985 0.6900 0.7055 0.6891
9/15/2004 EURGBP 0.6863 0.6823 0.6879 0.6801
9/15/2004 EURUSD 1.2192 1.2096 1.2304 1.2087
9/15/2004 EURYEN 134.25 133.09 134.74 133.13
9/15/2004 GBPUSD 1.7822 1.7664 1.8016 1.7654
9/15/2004 GBPYEN 196.24 194.33 197.49 194.08
9/15/2004 NDZUSD 0.6610 0.6530 0.6671 0.6526
9/15/2004 USDCAD 1.3006 1.2906 1.3067 1.2890
9/15/2004 USDCHF 1.2754 1.2656 1.2766 1.2522
9/15/2004 USDYEN 110.52 109.64 110.74 109.04

Jakarta Cakradara 03:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY
Intraday Range Forecast: 109.85 / 110.10
R: 110.40/110.70/111.14
S: 109.80/109.20/109.04

EUR/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.2140 / 1.2170
R: 1.2190/1.2220/1.2261
S: 1.2135/1.2112/1.2026

USD/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.2680 / 1.2710
R: 1.2716/1.2792/1.2850
S: 1.2642/1.2612/1.2567

GBP/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.7755 / 1.7785
R: 1.7812/1.7878/1.7912
S: 1.7738/1.7708/1.7652

AUD/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.6940 / 0.6965
R: 0.6985/0.7016/0.7049
S: 0.6935/0.6898/0.6852

chester wb 03:33 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Goldcoast martin--whats your view on aud/usd ?

i aint got no money yo 03:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
TA is overrated i trade using fundamentals only

Jakarta Cakradara 03:29 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
The yen may weaken for a second day against the dollar in Asia as a report showed overseas investors reduced purchases of Japan's shares and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell, extending its biggest drop in a month yesterday.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry my error I meant to say that intraday momentum is bearish but intraday indicators are in O/S area. For now we will probably see a bounce from here but the question is how big of a bounce. Right now neither bears or bulls have control of the eur/usd pair IMHO.
Martin I was hoping we would have a lot more participants by now in the market I hope you are right and they finally jump right in and get this pair on it’s marry way again. GL GT

houston st 03:25 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   

Sydney CD 03:06 GMT--might I suggest you go to the Help Forum and do a global search in the archives...there is alot of very good information on TA there...good luck.

Gold Coast martin 03:23 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
London 03:20 GMT September 16, 2004
Excuse my seemed insesitivity...i just thought it was one of your "compelling" dollar bashing posts....my apologies..g/t

Jakarta Cakradara 03:21 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Technical analysis was the picture of all the incidents that in untangled simply, and simply also we could see would the refraction the movement of the market.

London 03:20 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin it may seem amusing to your but I have trader friends whose family that live there

Sydney Alimin 03:17 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp is struggling to get 1.78, i might enter a small short position in front of 1.78 with tight s/l

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
We are still in a range for eur/usd but like I said before there seems to be a bullish intraday momentum right now but the retracement and bottom of the infamous T/L has stopped progress for the bears for now. Intraday indicators are in O/S area and midterm indicators are turning bearish again with the long indicators mixed to bullish. Support is found at 1.2120-30, 2085-95, 2025-35, 1990-2000, and 1.1940-50 bottom support for now. Immediate resistance for now is 1.2160-80 with resistance at 1.2195-2205, 2230-40, 2260-70 and (top T/L) 1.2300-20. Retracement as long as 1.2120-30 holds is 1.2170-75, 2200-05, 2220-25 and 2240-45. Pivot numbers are 1.2355, 2307, 2228, (2180), 2101, 2053 and 1.1974 IMHO. FWIW I have a sell positions on this pair and looking for 1.2087 and 1.2050 to print. GL GT

Santiago FrankC 03:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
To me, TA is like "you can live with them, and you can't live without them." It's a must.

Sydney CD 03:06 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I would like to know from the experienced traders on this forum (Shanghai bc, VA Raven, Athens, LA ArtofYen etc) about their thoughts on Technical Analysis and its importance. TIA.

wisconsin tim 02:59 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
ok ... got things to take care of ... levels might be awhile ;) for all those who are wondering

wisconsin tim 02:54 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
errm ... btw Avril Lavigne is the new cover on Maxim this month =)

Santiago FrankC 02:53 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi,

I think usd/chf will be bullish if the daily close is above 1.2670.

I will buy at the market with 30 pips SL, and 100 pips TP.

If closed below, will do the same, except will sell instead.

wisconsin tim 02:51 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
well since there are no trades out there I will update my levels ... which btw, were 9/10 yesterday =) ... stupid $/cad

wisconsin tim 02:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
jeez, im out a little while and it looks like the FF blew up ... whadda I miss ... btw stopped out on EUR/JPY longs at -20 still holding eur/gbp longs

Gold Coast martin 02:45 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
London 02:38 GMT September 16, 2004
HURRICANE BOJ TAKES AIM AT EURO
-----------------------------------
..OOPS FORGOT THE LINK.......

SanFrancisco TG 02:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Syd - Not to confuse, I have no problem with the post, or the article. Just sharing what I know. Quite a contrast no?

London 02:38 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Hurricane Ivan Takes Aim at Mobile, Ala

Syd 02:37 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Dont shoot the bloody messenger right

SanFrancisco TG 02:31 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
SYD - Please understand that not a word of what I say in this post is said in an egotistical fashion. But I am having no trouble with the market, and see extremely relevent fundamental logic to the vast majority of its fluctuations of recent. In all humility, I think this source you post is looking for excuses for not being able to accurately project foreign exchange activity.

Price drives in direction with relation to fundamental occurance based on its relative position. If the currency is undervalued/overvalued on a daily basis compared to economic data it will adjust. There is nothing to be "suspect" about. It is logical for the majority of the time.

This is why a currency will appear to move in a direction which does not make fundamental sense at the surface at times. Headline economic data does not diseminate the complete mix as well. For instance, a rising US deficit is not the headline doomsday scenario often publicized for a variety of reasons, including offsets, 2 years of rising receipts, a "service" economy, and other factors. This does not include comparison to geo-economic conditions.

Its a puzzle, but it can be pieced together.

Gold Coast martin 02:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 02:18 GMT September 16, 2004
The Big Japanense bully boy dictating terms on yen and yen crosses which in turn determine euro direction,,,will be present until end of month.....g/t

hk ab 02:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp is the most irrational though.....

hk ab 02:16 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
syd, imvho, your friend might have not kept an eye on dlr/jpy and jpy crosses well....
To put things simple, the one with the most capital don't want to see the surprise before the election. So, DNT will be the only profitable choice (option?).

Gold Coast martin 02:15 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
SYD...In times of thin liquidity the market is very vulnerable to a single large player like a central bank to dictate dollar direction ...as recent as last friday a major central bank has been trying to stem the rise of the euro and to bring it back to "earth"...this is likely to continue until the end of september ....the break out of the summer trading range may be closer than we think.........all fund managers who are back from summer holidays and are sitting on the fence waiting for someone else to make a move will get their wish....they just got to make sure they are on the right side of the fence....g/t

Syd 01:54 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Just had this emailed to me from a friend in London.
Virtually No Trade Out There Was there a deficit of understanding about the nation's current account? Did the Empire strike back? Or does fundamental economic news just not matter? On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. current account deficit exploded to a record $166.2 billion in the second quarter. Everybody knows it's a massive structural problem for the dollar, that it's growing out of control, and that at levels like these it's shaving large chunks off the U.S. gross domestic product. Very scary news for the dollar, right? If so, it wasn't evident: the dollar ended the day flat against the euro and down less than a half a yen. Fast forward to Wednesday. The Empire State Manufacturing Index from the New York Federal Reserve - not insignificant but nonetheless a survey of manufacturing in a single Fed district - rebounded sharply and the dollar staged a furious rally that shed a cent and a half off the value of the euro and added almost a full yen to the value of the dollar. To be sure, the index has value. As Ashraf Laidi, chief currency strategist at censored Financial, points out, "its timeliness is its most valuable attribute, since it precedes the release of other manufacturing surveys for the same month. This allows the Empire Index to serve as a predictive indicator for the manufacturing reports from the ISM, Chicago PMI and Philly Fed Index." But the dollar rally that followed is suspect, particularly since there are plenty of good reasons to be skittish on the currency, including a rally in crude prices, falling U.S. stocks, and the fact that Hurricane Ivan is making landfall, making for further disruptions in oil markets and threatening to run over New Orleans like a lawnmower.
There But there's a lesson to be learned here: this rangebound market has no need for fundamental economic news other than to act as a timing mechanism for buying and selling activity. Until something becomes painfully clearer about the course of the economy, simple range-trading principles are going to govern exchange rates. So why did the dollar stay where it was Tuesday in the face of the shocking widening in the current account deficit? Because traders were waiting to see if anybody would step in to buy the euro at levels higher than $1.2300. Similarly with the rally Wednesday, which happened precisely because people got bored waiting to see if anybody would buy the euro above $1.2300. It took too long, they got impatient, and so they started to buy dollars instead. It's making for a market where intuition, long-term views, and even day-trading strategies are largely ineffective. It also makes it not a very fun time to be a currency trader. "There is virtually no trade out there. No large discretionary macro trade, no trend, high risk aversion, and a lot of people getting chopped up," said David Gilmore, partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics ldn

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:25 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
I'm going to post a weather/climate change postulation based on fact in the help forum...give me 5 minutes.

Van jv 01:14 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
The couple: La Nina & El Nino
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.html

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:10 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
€/$ will short to 1.2000-1.220ish in post below is in error, it should read 1.2000-1.2020ish..sorry for the typographical error of a 0 omission.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:01 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
To say the El Niño warm equatorial ocean temperatures (+4°) will return is 100% correct as the cycle is around a 10-12 year cycle historically. The last El Niño (which only occurs in the Equatorial Pacificand where I live FYI) was in 1996-1997 so we've a ways to go yet. Right now the ocean temps are normal according to the current NOAA ocean anomoly map except for a small pocket of warmer than usual ocean (+2-3 degrees) right off the coast of southern Colombia and northern Ecuador..hardly an El Niño. So bring your lunch if you are waiting for another El Niño.

TORONTO aviator 00:59 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
boston mpd 004

Sorry I forgot. S/L 1.7722

Sydney Alimin 00:59 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
perhaps mckegg got it right this time, so far so good with his latest analysis

TORONTO aviator 00:58 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
boston mpd004 00:45 GMT
On an intraday basis, if it breaks 1.7813, we could see 1.7947.
Longer term I believe 1.8033 is possible.
GL & GT

Gen dk 00:58 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

perrie como 00:54 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Tests for http://www.terratrc.org/


Ps
BC what do you think about a global currency TRC

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:53 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Looking at the 30 day chart for €/$ the tail of this donkey could point anywhere any time...we're in the mid of the midrange. My best indicator is however the 1 year chart..a gradual overall uptrend for this pair is in progress but if chart history repeats itself, it will short to 1.2000-1.220ish (the support line from 11-2003 to present) fairly soon before a peak retracement of 1.23-1.24 is to be expected.

Dublin CK 00:49 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air? Now that we are on the subject of voodoo, witch doctor and star gazing trading, here is something to think about in the future and its impact on currencies. I read recently that El Nino might be returning, the weather is definitely screwed up this year. There is another hurricane coming right behind Ivan, that has just hit Puerto Rico.

Scroll down to the bottom of the page and you can download the full article in pdf format. Food for thought.

boston mpd004 00:45 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Toronto.aviator// what do you see as TP if any on gbp and what is your SL if any.

perrie como 00:45 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Sidney Alimin, since the market is apparently poor, would not discard to pick up the Gbp/Usd from It's recent lows. Do not forget It lost 200 pips approx. one day..usually if It is side the market has to go back up sharply.

If It drags lower It might be strong and at first lotsa of stop orders catched, then again on fundamentals more than else.

Subtle trends

Sydney Alimin 00:44 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
4-hr chart and indicators still has some room for gbp to go down to test the downtrend channel bottom at around 1.7620, that's the mission for the rest of this week, but question is from where is this next train gonna start?

Sydney Alimin 00:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 00:34 GMT September 16, 2004

i know this is hard to call, but what do you see gbp can do from here? if euro and gbp go together again i think it is more likely to see 1.76 first as euro looks set to go down to 1.20 level

perrie como 00:40 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
to explain myself have a short term benevolent inflation on cards. this could mean 1 or 2 months of stronger flows supporting partially the dollar. Much will depend from now on on global economies, a less centrinc and less understandable market next years.

perrie como 00:34 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
yes
you rite
talking charts but

boston mpd004 00:32 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
DC/fxg//1% fat, 1% ignorance=2%

dc fxq 00:28 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
perrie/como// nuff said, ain't we 98% water?

And the remaining 2% is ...

perrie como 00:27 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
To me the market will stay rangebound into

Thursday September 16:
-Jobless Claims (8:30am)
-Consumer Price Index (8:30am)
-Semiconductor equipment Book-to-Bill (6pm)

guess Gbp/Usd is the tough reversal play, but It could go lower as well.

SanFrancisco TG 00:22 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Spot, thats nothing compared to the cyclical bich index. If she isnt happy the USD must not be strong.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:18 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
Hey Spotforex NY, don't be givin' away my secrets now...dart board index and all. LOFL

perrie como 00:13 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
years ago, when switched temporarily from p-folio and trading to systems development I've seen an interesting japanese system referring to the usd/jpy. Even if at times was right, taking it all togheter was as working for nothing. Maybe better charities than moons to humans.

I do agree the moon impacts tides, humidity etc. but do not believe has relation with markets, unless we do not discover Oil up there.

stay well

Spotforex NY 00:10 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
TG

then again the 'dart board' index outperformed the best money managers in the Wall Street Journal on many ocassions.....

perrie como 00:07 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
The GBP/$ today will be the big guess, but other markets developing slowly as for looking liquidity.

(sry for my reasoning but am sort of system against systems trading developed in recent years, maybe a book already)

Even if looking all accross seems in favour of the Dollar, guess the only thing is that OIL is still priced mostly in USDs, so must be just National Long Term Risks P-folios, but most of them did not know about such a potential spike in Oil. Many big desks all over world have switched to potenciate their exposures in commodities, Oil as first. Guess this is politically driven as the surge in oil was driven mainly about a normal market volume made of real market makers, so to squeeze the higher need in terms of prices volume had to be added politically, no matter if those traders (before stocks or bonds or forex) will have losses, hopefully not but does not matter to the big game.

British Pound today is an example.....trend was clearly up now some months, but offseting moves and making money for Central Banks in such a game is easy. The bought near to 5 pct rates time ago and now selling forward while holding premia.

g/l
just reminescences of a trader

SanFrancisco TG 00:05 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
haha, humbled by Spot.

No problemo Boston.

Spotforex NY 00:03 GMT September 16, 2004 Reply   
re: planetary movements

Arch Crawford had the best performing equity fund back in late 1990's....

He is all about the stars....


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