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Forex Forum Archive for 09/23/2004

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Tokyo 23:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
July tertiary index -0.8%
July all-industry index -0.6

Toronto YV 23:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
what is Japan tertiary index , was it released already ?

Spotforex NY 23:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
re: Russia

'Earlier this year, Russian military forces suffered two embarrassing failures of ballistic missile launches from submarines during highly publicized naval maneuvers. '

probably Just showing the world how they are spending their new found oil wealth......and what it can do for a program....

Global-View Rules 23:56 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Note this rule, it will be strictly enforced.

8. Personal attacks on individual participants are not permitted. Readers are encouraged to respect the ideas of those who have been kind enough to contribute to the forum and treat one another with civility and respect. Discussions of brokers are not permitted.

Spotforex NY 23:49 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
TOKYO (AP)--Japan has received intelligence indicating North Korea may be preparing to test launch a short-range missile, an official said Thursday.

Information from spy satellites and radio waves has shown North Korea beefing up troops and equipment around missile launch bases, said Shigemi Terui, a spokesman at the prime minister's office.

The government has set up an emergency task-force team to help gather more information, Terui said.

The secretive communist nation test-fired short-range missiles into the ocean on several occasions last year during an international standoff over its nuclear weapons program.

In Seoul, Rhee Bong-jo, the deputy unification minister, said earlier Thursday that South Korea recently detected activity "connected to North Korean missiles."

usa 23:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
add to EUR short here imo stop macd cross hr

Spotforex NY 23:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
It is the N. Korea test of a missile that is more of concern......It looks to happen very soon......

Stockholm AGuy 23:42 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 23:33 GMT: "Russia seems to be getting ready for something, they just tested an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile"

As they've been doing since the 50's. Surely you can think of better scares than that?

Ldn 23:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Russia seems to be getting ready for something, they just tested an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile . Its a very scary world we are living me thinks

Ldn 23:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Osama Bin Laden, Heinz Kerry said she could see the al-Qaida chief being caught before the November election.
"I wouldn't be surprised if he appeared in the next month," said Heinz Kerry, alluding to a possible capture by United States and allied forces before election day.
Phoenix.Biz journals

Sydney Alimin 22:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
morning guys, euro 1.2265? what was the cause of this?
missed the short by 3 pips :( wanted it to be too perfect
oh well, start a new day now

well done Talinn, viies..you have done it again

Livingston nh 22:49 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Foreign holdings at the Fed declined this week and Agency paper was heavily sold for the second straight week // Money supply growth increased modestly -- as we move into Q4 the y/y M2 figures should rise more quickly (10% to 11%) because of last year's decline // EUR and CHF back to pre-Fed levels

GVI john 22:15 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
And it is updated daily

GVI john 22:13 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Miguel look on the right side of the page. Its all there for free from GV.

Lisbon MDM 22:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello,

i am a stocks and options trader from Portugal. I have been trading in US markets for 6 years. Now i am moving to Forex.

The lack of historical data in Forex market is really surprising. Data is really important for traders and yet it's really difficult to find it.

Even brokers have only real time data but not good historical data.

Can you help me and point to me some good services or brokers which offers historical data to their clients?

Thank You,
Miguel

Ltn th 22:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
So, I guess it comes down to the level of control that the Diet has over the Prime Minister compared wih that of congress over the president bearing in mind foreign affairs treaty obligations. These would appear to be more significant in Japan than US where presidential powers could usurp.

Dublin Flip 22:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The spreads in FX are negligble considering the inherent continual market noise. Brokerage and Admin is free. Charts TA and virtual dealing rooms (like Global View) are either free or close to it. News and market theorists are free.
Only five years ago an active day trader would need to make 50k just to cover costs - That is now next to zippo. It's only when one runs position sizes too big for his pockets that the broker is like a house and has any advantage whatsover. Brokers can't make the market move against you. If their prices were outside market they'd soon be arbitraged out of existance. The market is bigger than any one player.
The biggest mistake any trader small or colossal makes is running positions bigger than unexpected (yet always potential market) conditions evolve -everyone from George Souris and down to and including yours truly_LOL

dc fxq 21:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Yes, you are correct. Chmn Greenspan is a political appointee. As such he or any other FOMC chairman could not be reappointed should a sitting President ask for his resignation of not reappoint him. I do not believe it has been done in the US in the modern era but I could be wrong.

Ltn th 21:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GVI John and FXQ. Thank you. In banking areas as distinct from forex or trade, Does the BOJ call the shots? Whilst RBA is nominally independant of government, I, perhaps mistakenly, believe that the BOJ is separately represented or controlled within the japanese executive government separately from the finance minister, nominally at a moe senior cabinet level?

dc fxq 21:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks John, that was exactly how I understood the "rules of the game".

GVI john 21:39 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Correct. In many countries, forex policy is seen as part of foreign policy and is thus controlled by the government and executed by the central bank. Even in the euro-zone, It is ECOFIN (Finance Ministers) that technically call the shots on forex, although that responislblity has been delegated to the ECB. In Japan and the U.S., the Ministry of Finanace and Treasury call ALL the policy shots on forex. The Fed and BOJ just do what they are told.

dc fxq 21:31 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 21:02 GMT September 23, 2004

Can't say this is absolute fact but my understanding if that the BoJ determines monetary policy while the MoF does the actual intervention. Similar to the Fed making econoic policy while the Treasury does the actual intervention deed THROUGH the FRB New York.

Can anyone more knowledgeable confirm or clarify?

pd cumino 21:15 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Alicante RTN 21:01 GMT September 23, 2004
Take that as a thing without any value. It is not impossible that you could find some allieds on that.

Ltn th 21:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Martin or anyone who can help. Is there any basis to rumor of policy conflict between BOJ and MOF? If so who is likely to prevail?

wisconsin tim 21:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
just re-established short E/G stops ~30 away tp below 00

Alicante RTN 21:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Anyone following NZDJPY - approaching levels where a short position may be interesting?

wisconsin tim 20:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
aj, nothing like starting the game down $2k or whatever they charge

athens aj 20:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
new to this game any feedback on trading signals by outfits like ltgfx,4xsignals etc.

NYC YIPPEE 20:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Adding to short EURUSD here @ 1.2265. Stop for the whole amount now 1.2346.

Syd 20:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
He is right margin Forex for private individuals has only been available from the early 1990's , I was in the UK when I started trying to get an account with Barclay's London and they said they only traded in $1million lots and then only for large institutions and to forget it. -

pd cumino 20:15 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 20:00 GMT September 23, 2004
Eheh speaking of spreads someone should trade again some USD ITL or DEM ITL expecially during fast market....

NYC CS 20:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Revdax - nah. Positive aggregate P&L comes down to the relationship between 3 factors:
1. Frequency that you guess right
2. Size of winners versus losers
3. Capital adequacy

Transaction costs are simply a component of #2. If it costs you $100 to trade an S&P future, you think you can only make $110 in profit and your stop is $100, you are effectively risking $100 to win $10. That's a bad risk/reward trade.

Global-View 20:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Okay enough, let's not make this personal. Alot of you guys have been in this businbess for only a shirt time or a few years and what you know of it is your dealing with retail brokers. While this is not a perfect world, you are getting bid/offer spreads that would not even be available interbank not that many years ago. You really could benefit from some of the more experienced traders who have been on the insitutional side andcan give a broader perspective of how the market really works. We have a help Forum for this purpose so suggest taking these discussions there and try being constructive rather than making it personal.

Honolulu ck1 20:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Just doing some research gang..... Any help would greatly be apreciated.... Anyway, I was wondering if anyone could recall back in May of this year (around the 24th to the 27th) the reason why the Euro gained on the USD by over 300pips... 1.1954 - 1.2274??? Wasn't trading back then... so naturally I must have missed some "big" news event... If anyone can remember.... thanks in advance!

van revdax 19:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Tor Pumpkin 19:55//4X Made Easy delivered some seminars here in Vancouver, and then you have Optonetics and other high-tech software companies that want to sell their jazz. they even talk about diversifying your pension fund into trading FX....

NYC YIPPEE 19:57 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
BRAVO Pumpkin !

You get my vote for the CFTC chairman/person.

van revdax 19:56 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
if you didn't play, you would not lose. this is 100% know it all...hahahha

Dallas GEP 19:56 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Look in the mirror Raton!!!! Well this has been fun but I need to leave. Will be back Asia/London. GL GT to all.

Tor Pumpkin 19:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I agree. That is rediculous. If I am not letting you close your positions at whatever level, profit or loss, then you should be looking for an alternate, reputable market maker. It speaks volumes about these retail FX platforms that have proliferated recently. We don't do that in the interbank market.

dc fxq 19:54 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The value of "professional" trading advice in FX, is almost valuless. I say that as someone who was a professional TA in both the US and Canada. I do not include among that group those like Qindex and myself who offer quantitative data only and do not generally recommend specific opinion of the "buy/sell" variety.

If one is going to trade FX, there isn't the time to offer "buy here, sell there" advice, especilly if you are talking very short term positions - say one to two hours max.

A professional (or even amatuer advisor) does have the luxury of time to do so but if he/she attempts to both trade and proffer advice simultaneously either the personal account or the advice will suffer.

Just my own take, of course.

Boca Raton 19:53 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, I do not know it all. I do know enough to spot a bull$shiter though.

Dallas GEP 19:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
YIPPEE, we will simply disagree on that then. Nothing wrong with that at all IMO.

Dallas GEP 19:50 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Raton, I am not sure who here claims to have a KNOW IT ALL attitude. I personally make mistakes all the time and I post those as well. You on the other hand tend to be super critical of those methods and strategies with which you don't agree with yet you say NOTHING when those same methods and strategies make money. Perhaps it may not be some of US on the GV side that could learn from some of YOU on the GV pro side but vice versa???

NYC YIPPEE 19:50 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I know it all...

Although I have no ego, thus nothing to prove.

;-)

NewYork frankie 19:49 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton, look, if you really are the "real deal" then post something for us mere dreamers. I mean, you must have some "real" experiences being a pro trader that we could benefit from, right? I suppose you must think we only ride mules in this forum compared to your thoroughbred.

NYC YIPPEE 19:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
"FX trading has many of the pitfalls of gambling in that the odds are certainly stacked against you"

With my core, and all that I am I will challenge this statement GEP.

van revdax 19:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 19:41//you seem to know it all...

van revdax 19:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
thus i think the only thing that is sure is the stop or knowing how much you are going to lose from this trade. profit taking carries an element of luck.

Boca Raton 19:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I have fired people in dealing rooms for having "I know it all attitudes". Thats if they could handle the stress of being there in the first place. If you guys didn't have such a 'know it all attitude', maybe some of the GVI people would be more likely to add some truly constructive comments. Seriously, you haven't a clue what FX really is guys. Get off your high horse.

LA JD 19:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Ouch, that dart hurt!!!

van revdax 19:39 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC CS 19:25 //There was a period of about 30 months in which i was trading for an experimental account of a corporation. At the end of it, the account more or less broke even while the cost of the transactions amounted to be more than 2 times of the capital. Each time, i placed a stop but the profit taking part was where it irritated me the most. I made use of the 'professional' research sold around here but discovered at the end that their targets were as good as throwing dots in the dark.

Boca Raton 19:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
frankie boy, you have ruined my day.

romania nick 19:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Tor Pumpkin // if I sell dollars to you and you don t let me close my positions when I have profit( ex:your platform is down,the phones are bussy), guess what?you steal from me.

Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
JK, And I would consider anything less than 10 million dollars a small margin spec. I venture to GUESS that would certainly include MOST of us here on the GV side.

New York frankie 19:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton - you're truly pathetic

nyc jk 19:31 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
lol Raton.

GEP - I agree to the extent of small margin specs.

Dallas GEP 19:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
JK, I am referring to SPECS specifically. Banks don't gamble and make generally 40% of their profits from FX trading. So specifically for SPEC players YES, I do believe FX trading has many of the pitfalls of gambling in that the odds are certainly stacked against you. The results prove that over and over again.

Boca Raton 19:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
jk, I was going to say that after he left, the drawers would be stuffed with trade tickets on the bottom, but its all electronic now.

Tor Pumpkin 19:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP, by definition, the "house" or bank takes the opposite position b/c they're the market maker. If you sell dollars to me, guess what? I'm long! There's no huge conspiracy against you.

NYC CS 19:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Revdax - yeah, you have to factor in realistic transaction costs into your risk/reward analysis and execution targets beforehand...

I often use options where the bid/offer that you have to cross is significant. It is very possible that you could correctly catch a significant move in the underlying, but after you buy on the offer and sell on the bid you don't make any money...

nyc jk 19:23 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP do you really believe that?? Why don't you ask Jay if through one of his contacts you can go someday to the trading of a major bank/inv bank or hedge fund and observe for a little while. might open your eyes to a few things.......

wisconsin tim 19:20 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
just want to say thanks for the informative posts today ... and also to those that regularily post great stuff at a measured pace =)

Dallas GEP 19:19 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
OK, anyone who doesn't think trading forex is gambling is NOT being realistic. The platform provider takes the juice (the spread up front). The overwhelming majoirity of people LOSE money doing (just like in Vegas). The HOUSE can make it more difficult for you to "play" with off market feeds, no auto execution, and many "houses" play against you with IN-HOUSE trading positions OPPOSITE to yours. How then can FX Trading NOT be gambling??? The house has the overwhelming advantage over the player and it is no different when comparing the fate of the specs vs. the BIG players.

Illinois DB 19:16 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP, thanks for your post earlier on usdcad.
I got in shortly after I read it.

Eilat Dolphin 19:15 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Didn't we agree ours ago hthat an above 1.28 USDCAD was going to be seen soon enough FOMC or no FOMC.

So why did you hit the silk so fast ?

wisconsin tim 19:13 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
selling eur/usd on move back to hourly TL which was broken looking for 35- which is the 50% of 1.2124-1.2345 hourly move
stops on the other side of 00

NewYork frankie 19:10 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Good on you "gambler"

Dallas GEP 19:07 GMT September 23, 2004
Took profits on USD/CAD longs from 1.2770 and from 1.2790 at 1.2802. ONCE again a possie that was supposedly FLAWED in the eyes of some makes money again. LOL

wisconsin tim 19:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
not my math ... read from some dude's website in describing fractals and trading and gambler's ruin ... lots of letters after his name

nyc jk 19:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I would call it more getting your @ss saved by hawkish FOMC minutes, but hey that's just me.

Spotforex NY 19:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Thank you CS for stating the source on that quote.

van revdax 19:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
CS//How important is the cost of transaction to the overall p/l picture? TIA

Eilat Dolphin 19:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
tim: Your math however is exquisite, and no mathematician is a fool said... Ptolemeus?

Dallas GEP 19:07 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Took profits on USD/CAD longs from 1.2770 and from 1.2790 at 1.2802. ONCE again a possie that was supposedly FLAWED in the eyes of some makes money again. LOL

wisconsin tim 19:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
nothing like exiting your positions minutes before the big move ... days like this just make me feel the fool (which is most of the time btw)

chicago joe 19:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
CS i agree with you, our strategies are similar. I believe in wide stops, at least 1:1 risk/reward ratio at the beginning of a trade enhanced by layering, hedging, and scalping.

NYC CS 19:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Gartman attributes the quote to Gary Shilling...

dc fxq 19:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
can anyone say "short squeeze" on the IMM close?

wisconsin tim 19:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
just wanted to add this to the averaging game ... if you are the guy with 100 dollars you can make out quite well but if you are trading a retail platform one can assume you are not the guy with $100 dollars =)

"You have $10 and your friend has $100. You flip a fair coin. If heads comes up, he pays you $1. If tails comes up, you pay him $1. The game ends when either player runs out of money. What is the probability your friend will end up with all of your money? From the second equation above, we have p = q = .5, W = $10, and R = $100. Thus the probability of your losing everything is:

1 - (10/(10 + 100)) =.909.

You will lose all of your money with 91 percent probability in this supposedly "fair" game.

ICT ML 19:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Anyone think there is chance Yen lost its offered bias from early Ldn due to Crude getting too close to $50 and people looking for a pullback again? Not complaining because $Y is back up there again now but was baffled earlier.

Didn't see a real reason for $Y to sell off like it did earlier other than Oil at possible selloff point myself.......anyone have a different take?

Spotforex NY 19:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 18:34

Dennis Gartman puts that quote in his market commentary at times....It is from a friend of his....


It is well stated.

Pecs Andras 18:57 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC CS 18:51 GMT September 23, 2004
Both of your posts are very interesting and professional. I think many people would agree with what you say and many others can learn a lot from them.
But nobody can learn anything by reading short, sarcastic sentences thrown in every now and then against a particular participant of this forum.
Obviously, the latter sentence does not apply to you.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 18:54 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC CS

Agree 1000% with u!
LOL

dc fxq 18:54 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
could it be that some of the model and hedge fund accounts got trapped on the last surge above 1.2310? According to one report a "prminent name had been a seller at 1.2310 up on that spike.

NYC CS 18:51 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Actually, I shouldn't say that I always stick to that plan. I always strive to trade that way.

NYC CS 18:49 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks USA, Boca, JK

Chicago - Joe...I'm not saying that you never add to losers. I usually scale into positions, i.e. add to losers but I always scale in ahead of a s/l, have different profit targets to scale out, and if lucky enough, leave a small portion to trail a stop profit behind that I'll let run until stopped.

The important parts to this money management strategy are:
1. At all times there is a known/finite loss (that is significantly smaller than everything)
2. The potential win is significantly larger than the max loss
3. Your target upside/downside ratio covers your losers. In other words, if you only bet when you think that a winner could pay 2x your maximum loss, you have to be right more than 50% of the time. If you only bet when you think a winner could pay 3x your max loss, you need to be right more than 33% of the time etc.

Any money management strategy that adequately addresses these 3 objectives will only ensure that you are risking your money efficiently. It still doesn't guarantee that you will guess right often enough to make you profitable, but any money management strategy that doesn't address all 3 adequately will always censored money away.

Any strategy that fails to address any 1 of those 3 objectives adequately, i.e. usually no max loss, usually no evaluation of upside/downside ration, or usually no consideration of how often you are wrong versus right will just about guarantee eventual failure.

Wien GD 18:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
nh ... but maybe (probably?!) you are right ... (;-)

Livingston nh 18:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Wien

van revdax 18:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
usa 18:42//i am constructing a C9 indicator. would appreciate if you could help me.

Wien GD 18:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
nh can't believe that ... read title and read last sentence -> august meeting!
Definition
The Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its meetings with a lag. The minutes of the previous meeting are reported two days after a current meeting. Thus, if the FOMC were meeting on a Tuesday in December, the November minutes would be released on Thursday of the same week.

van revdax 18:43 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 18:39 //Thanks. You are the second respondent that says down. How about the third???

NewYork frankie 18:43 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 18:41 GMT September 23, 2004
Let me be Frankie Face with you. I have been doing this for a while. I have forgotten more than you will ever hope to learn about FX. I do not contribute ideas, TA, or gambling methods. I can spot a bull$hitter from a mile away.

I guess that's why people tend to ignore. touche

usa 18:42 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
sounds like your guessing van..... MACD divergence on hourly chart leans to EUR and GBP short...not confirm until below the 0 line

Boca Raton 18:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Let me be Frankie Face with you. I have been doing this for a while. I have forgotten more than you will ever hope to learn about FX. I do not contribute ideas, TA, or gambling methods. I can spot a bull$hitter from a mile away.

Barcelona Tony 18:40 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Greg, check msn, ty

Eilat Dolphin 18:39 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
revdax/ Down, same with CAD, but CAD for TA reasons.

wisconsin tim 18:39 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
closed long $/yen and short E/G
gt's all

Tor Pumpkin 18:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
yip, john maynard keynes, i think

Livingston nh 18:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD - the Sept minutes will come out following the Nov meeting

NYC YIPPEE 18:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Spot, who said this ???

"The market will remain irrational, longer than you will remain solvent"

van revdax 18:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Euro going up or down from this level as far as today is concerned????tia..just want to take a survey.

Boca Raton 18:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
At least you admit you are a gambler Frankie. Thats the first step towards recovery.

Wien GD 18:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
thx nh and irish ... already found that one (http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20040810.htm) but can't find the last one for september ... somebody must have it ?!

houston ken 18:32 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
not in forex only gain will keep you working . you dont want pain .

chicago joe 18:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
no pain no gain, sticking with usd/cad hoping for key day reversal.

houston ken 18:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
too early to buy euro wait

NewYork frankie 18:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 18:18 GMT September 23, 2004
NYC CS

You are a professional. I can tell that from your writing. It is too bad that most of the gamblers here cannot benefit from your wisdom. Thank you.

And you my friend, apart from slagging off us gamblers, what do you post here in terms of entry and exits, TA, Fundys, etc etc? How is your demo account BTW?

swidnica profi-forex 18:24 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
and try long gbp/usd if touch 1,7975 sl 1,7950 tp open

Livingston nh 18:24 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
wien -FOMC minutes -- http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20040810.htm

Eilat Dolphin 18:24 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
frankie/ LMAO!

swidnica profi-forex 18:22 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
buy more eur/usd at 1,2295 sl 1,2270 tp open

nyc jk 18:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
great post CS.

New York frankie 18:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
betting my toolshed on a euro long here at 1.2300 tp 20 pips

Eilat Dolphin 18:20 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Frankie/ Wait, those FOMC guys are much more hawkish than those jet pilots ! %^)

But still, it's good to relax. 10%MAX!

Chicago Irish 18:18 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Wien:Just read it off my news service...This may help

GVI Jay 18:04 GMT September 23, 2004
From FOMC minutes: "...Given the current quite low level of short-term rates, especially when judged against the recent level of inflation, members noted that significant cumulative policy tightening likely would be needed to foster conditions consistent with the Committee's objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth..."

Boca Raton 18:18 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC CS

You are a professional. I can tell that from your writing. It is too bad that most of the gamblers here cannot benefit from your wisdom. Thank you.

NewYork frankie 18:16 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 18:00 GMT September 23, 2004
frankie/ Guess why they Iraki and Irani jet fighter pilots never indulged in dog fights during their eight years long war, but only bombed each other countries ?

Then translate the answear to FX and you may be a winner.

Ok. the casino highroller just closed his euro shorts for a quick 22 pips

chicago joe 18:14 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
CS if what you said was true, then wouldn't that imply that averaging up would be a good strategy? Again averaging down doesn't mean you do it mechanically, but at the trader's discretion based on other factors suchs market behavior and fundamentals.

Wien GD 18:13 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Irish: link for fomc minutes?

usa 18:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Excellent post NYC... the best I have seen in a long while here!

Eilat Dolphin 18:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
CS/ A dozen Sameside on a hundred throws, Fifteen on five hundred, Eighteen on a thousand etc.

Suicidal any way you look at it... or there wouldn't be any casino left on this planet.

Chicago Irish 18:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hawkish FOMC minutes

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 18:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Honolulu ck1

I dont want to be paid from other for any comments here, just keep warming my trading time here with participatin in this forum.

I would be visit ur place sometime. Until then, be nice LMAO
Have a nice rest, buddy!

NYC CS 18:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Continuously doubling down on coin flips will work the overwhelming majority of the time. If your capital level allows you to double down 15 times, the odds that you are going to run into a streak of 15 adverse coin tosses is only .5^15.

There are 3 problems with this strategy.
1. You will spend the overwhelming majority of the time underwater, i.e. taking profit on small wins, but adding to losers.
2. The more times you play, the more likely it is that you will run into 15 adverse tosses in a row. This means that conceivably, you could follow this strategy for 30 years, then get wiped out.
3. FX markets, and most other markets are path dependent, meaning that if the last 5 coin tosses were heads, the odds of the 6th toss coming up heads is much higher than 50%. The degree to which this is true, i.e. that markets trend can increase the probability that you will run into 15 adverse coin tosses dramatically.

Given that markets are hardly .5 probability distribution, if you follow this strategy faithfully, odds are very good that you will make money the majority of the time. If you follow it faithfully for a long time, odds are very good that you will get wiped out at some point.

Most traders with bad money management strategies are confident that they can tell the difference between a market that is going to turn out to be 15 bad coin tosses, i.e. a market that is going to break out/trend, and a market that is going to turn out to be just a few bad coin tosses, i.e. a range bound market.

Given that there are an infinite number of ways to bet without exposing yourself to that 15 bad coin toss outcome, it makes no sense to bet that way. The only way that it makes sense to bet that way is if you are truly indifferent to making money and being wiped out.

Honolulu ck1 18:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Ooppssss thas supposed to be "long" not "ong" LOL

Honolulu ck1 18:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Its cool USA.... to me sometimes a ong term view helps my short term goals... Make sense.......

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 18:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe,

Thanks for ur nice comment.
I do trade on the one strategy basis system: Put The Positions with minimum stops (as we can occour with so many tools in TA side) and keep the profit run untill my target done later. Mostly I dont take my positions b4 my Target of Profit reach or it killed by my STP.

U can just see my comment here or just take my view or the market analitical and condition I saw. But the most important thing is growing the investment we handle, that's why I always look for a condition which can put position safely with minimum STP and maximum profit, otherwise I usually just sit and keep watching. Usually I dont want to trade when some of my tools of analysis tell 50:50, just sit and drink my capucino LOL

Eilat Dolphin 18:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
frankie/ Guess why they Iraki and Irani jet fighter pilots never indulged in dog fights during their eight years long war, but only bombed each other countries ?

Then translate the answear to FX and you may be a winner.

usa 17:57 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ok.. as long as timeframes are posted if not intraday.. its good ... good trades bro

wisconsin tim 17:56 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
bought $/yen looking for 80+

if e/g continues it's float higher gonna close E/G shorts from last night ~.6856

Honolulu ck1 17:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks again Wibawa....

Your comments have been very insightfull..... at least for me anyway.... Very much a newbie here, but a fast learner.... Anyway, just know that if no one pays any attention to your comments.. I will. LOL.. Anyway, if you're ever in Hawaii... look me up. Until then.... Aloha!

Chicago Irish 17:54 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
To each his own but good luck Frankie

NewYork frankie 17:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 17:49 GMT September 23, 2004
Frankie:Rule #1........Never bet the farm.

Rule#2 ...... never tell a gambler to listen to rule#1

Dallas GEP 17:50 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
SURE you can BOCA, on more than 30 accounts, I am sure you saw them all!!! LOL

nyc jk 17:49 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
joe - you are correct, it is not a high frequency occurance. but who wants it to be an occurance at all? anyway, you fellastrade how you want to, just a cautionary tale to ponder.

Chicago Irish 17:49 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Frankie:Rule #1........Never bet the farm.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 17:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
USA..

I do trade from level to level with minimum stops. If I gave a grand cycle formation all about the mainsream on the trending. But I do short term trade for tactical trading.

I have sent early session my posting. Just for ur reference. Thanks.
=========
Jakarta Wibawa_Id 07:25 GMT September 23, 2004
Good Day everyone!

I think the market would be more attractive for today as cross rate trading (specially eurjpy and gbpjpy) give us an alert that it would be a stable in price. At the moment I prefer to Buy EUR/$ at current level with STP 1.2250 and T/P 1.2350-1.2385. I m using 4hours chart with MA21 and MA55 crossed over already and signaling mthat market tend to sky-rocketing again soon!

Also for GBP/$ Buy at current level with STP 1.7903, T/P 1.8030 even can break the main FIBO 66% Yearly around 1.8046 to go next resistance 1.8160 area.

One more, I Short $/JPY at 110.70 with STP 111.15, T/P 109.35. There are some technical indicators give us signaling Bearish Divergence and I belive the dollar would be downfall.

Cheers and GL!

Eilat Dolphin 17:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NJ/ What, you want Frankie to be intoxicated too ?

Boca Raton 17:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I have seen your results. This is a very small world.

NewYork frankie 17:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 17:44 GMT September 23, 2004
frankie what happen to be patient and wait for 1.237?

I think its almost over for today. In which case the dailies are suggesting for the 3rd day running that this current level is all we are going to get. I like candlesticks to trade by. I think we'll probably see 20-30 pips lower from here before NY close.

I've also been told to never switch horses!

chicago joe 17:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
jk that is true it could happen, but I wouldn't say it's a high frequency occurance either, that's why technically you are supposed to take money out and put it in something safer periodically, and not be too greedy.

Atlantic City NJ 17:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 17:42

I think you would be better off at one of the casinos down here...worst case scenario is a few drinks in your belly before your funds are gone.

chicago joe 17:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
frankie what happen to be patient and wait for 1.237?

Dallas GEP 17:42 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
BTW, Boca where were you when I came out of those EUR/USD shorts you were bashing me over the other day. I came out at PROFIT. Amazing how that works out the MAJORITY of the time in my favor. You bash the methods but then absolutely IGNORE the results.

NewYork frankie 17:42 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
just closed all my euro longs at breakeven. Have now gone short everthing in my account is on it. Seriously

nyc jk 17:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP , it may well work out for you now, but here is the problem with it. true story from a friend:

"Mr. ---- said he likes to gamble and that's why he owns a few casinos – so that they let him play baccarat for up to $120,000 a bet. He uses the Martingale system of always betting to win a few thou. Then he quits. It’s only a 5% edge, he explained, so he cant lose as long as he has sufficient money. “Same thing with your options,” he added.

I said, “Well, that doesn’t work, because you only make a little most of time, but lose big. The houses love you.”

“That’s right,” he said. “I lost $X million in two minutes last year, and that took back all my winnings over the previous three years.”

Pecs Andras 17:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Boca
I think before you know the details (lot size, equity, etc) you have know way to tell whether it is gambling or good money management. I do not know either. But I know one thing. GEP is still trading, and he has been trading for quite a time now. Gamblers do not last long in the FX market, I guess.
And one last thing. Though neither of us knows the details, GEP always calls his entries and squaring, be it a loss or a profit.

usa 17:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
jakarta: please post your timeframe for you trades if not intraday.. I think you are more of a swing trader than focusing on intraday movements... that might confuse alot of people here..... you may be right for longer term view.. but as for now the bias is to the short side intraday for the EUR and GBP imo

chicago joe 17:38 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Lol nick. In case of geopolitcal event you might get stopped out 300 pips from your stop limit, that could happen too.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 17:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Honolulu ck1,

Yeah sure, but the grand cycle for GBP/$ in 4hours charting has been making ROUNDING BOTTOM, also u can check that all of the cross with JPY (EURJPY, GBPJPY) has come down with $/jpy level is on low.

I suspect that the dollar will be shortfall soon as CAD, AUD EUR and also GBP on ceiling area.
So I keep my Long pot both on EUR and GBP, still have a chance break 1.8046 FIBBO66% Yearly chart area.
I think the next target for GBP around 1.8160 area or above in next 24 hrs later. specially in Gold and Oil price on high tensoin. LMAO

Keep watching and GL !

Leeson Nick 17:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Agreed GEP

Dallas GEP 17:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
This is going to work guys whether you beleive it or not. It HAS and it WILL now. Thanks for the concern.

Chicago Irish 17:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Yup Boca I remember Negara LOL

Boca Raton 17:30 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
In my book, it's called gambling. Gambling on a geo-political event doesn't happen. Averaging all the way down to 1.2640, until something happens and the currency vacuums. It can happen. I have seen it happen many a time. It will happen again.

wellington am 17:29 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP - What's your view on GBP/JPY now? Thx

chicago joe 17:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT September 23, 2004
YEP, it could break lower, it could go long, it could consolidate, WTF, it could do anything. EVEN if it breaks lower what are the chances that this level WON'T be seen again. In my view ZERO. This level to me is safe because it will be seen again.

Exactly! That's why layering works.

nyc jk 17:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:30 GMT September 22, 2004
.......it is important to have stops in place and to not aggressively average (yes this is me talking!!!) LOL

well that didn't even make it 24 hours GEP, lol.

usa 17:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
i hope not van :)

Honolulu ck1 17:26 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Wibawa! I actually have that in place right now but it seems the market is currently making a slight correction from earlier today.

van revdax 17:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Is Euro going higher? Anyone ...TIA

praga jan 17:23 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
has the fomc minutes usually any significant impact to the markets?thanx.

Boca Raton 17:22 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, will you be buying more USD/CAD at 1.2735?

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 17:22 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi Honolulu ck1

Buy GBP/$ from now with STP 1.7960 and T/P break 1.804
GL!

Honolulu ck1 17:17 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hey Everyone,

Has anyone posted anything regarding going long on the GPB/USD?

Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
YEP, it could break lower, it could go long, it could consolidate, WTF, it could do anything. EVEN if it breaks lower what are the chances that this level WON'T be seen again. In my view ZERO. This level to me is safe because it will be seen again.

GER ad 17:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:56,
USD/CAD could break lower with EUR help, next small support
1.2725/35. GL!

Vancouver Paddyboy 16:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Looks like light sweet crude just set a new month high $49.00 a barrel.

$50.00 is very likely.

Dallas GEP 16:56 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
AD, not silent...still long CAD...happy about it at least at this time!!! LOL Have longs from 1.2790 and 1.2770. 1.2760 area is key.

NewYork frankie 16:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Well, my euro longs are still in play and just a few points from breakeven at 1.2322. I suppose I'm just going to have to be patient for my 1.2370

GER ad 16:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 16:40 ,
Many are EUR/USD short and USD/CAD long so "silence"

usa 16:43 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
indonesia solo: how long have you been trading? I have been watching your calls and I agree with most of them.. just curious... also.. what strategy do you use?

dc fxq 16:40 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Has a vast silence fallen over the forum? Or is it my IP connection?

GOES B747 15:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
as (almost) everybody within this forum are planning their attack on USD; I will ask you guys to take care and not to attack a 'dummy target' and/or a 'bobby trap'.
the only safe and economical alive places are in Japan and China and India for the moment; since ever and still at both places locals control daily lives.
making the calls about EUR, CHF and the rest are actually calls for "who will get bankrupt first" // imo, the current century is not lazy man's era.
at least, be a smart lazy man and put/bet your money on working, active, growing people/countries.

gt to all

kranj 15:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Goldcoast// Great call 2 moons ago! Seems your have good info. However even the allmighty BOJ lost 115 line... Perhaps boys push EUR higher despite of BOJ? It would be ok for Euroland due to oil etc... But think since bond yields down smarter to switch to cable long (if one is USD bearish of course...). Could you share your thoughts on the matter (perhaps bit longer view say end of Oct04)? Would be much appreciated. Regards and all the best.

Dallas GEP 15:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
CAD is at make or break level for LONGS unless there is a false break down thru 1.2765

Gold Coast martin 15:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Fair weather awaits you..to be precise the volta will conclude at 12223.......g/t

GVI john 15:24 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The Bi-weekly GVI survey of professional dealers continued to see little change for the eur/$ and $/yen by the end of next week with mean forecasts for 1.2233 and 110.21 for the European close on Friday, October 1. For yearend the eur/$ is seen slightly higher at 1.2397 and the $/yen weaker at 109.01. That is a higher eur/$ than predicted two weeks ago (1.2121) and virtually no change in $/yen (109.10).

The tracking survey for the November U.S. election has dealers increasingly expecting Bush to beat Kerry. The poll shows 81% to 19% of participants now thinking Bush will win. On July 29, the Bush margin was at its smallest of 54% to 46%.

As for Fed Funds, respondents overwhelmingly expect a 2.0% Funds rate at year end and the preponderance of Crude Oil forecasts for yearend fall fairly evenly in s $40-50 range. There is no consensus view evident. In the previous survey the preponderance of forecasts was below $42.

For survey results:
CLICK HERE

Thanks to all who participated,
Global-View.com

Eilat Dolphin 15:22 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Martin/ Not yet: while I am waiting for the Pinta to finish it's "volta" to 1.2250, I am surfing down them southern gales. They really got winds down there.

Sydney Alimin 15:16 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 15:04 GMT September 23, 2004

LOL, that's very true...this time can he send it to 'bushland' again? what do you reckon? credit must be given to mr costello though

best of luck mate, i am off now

Gold Coast martin 15:14 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 15:10 GMT September 23, 2004
I THOUGHT YOU ARE ON THE pinta....the aussie will be a while so if you want to wait for 7115 you can get on the SANTA MARIA...G/T

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:14 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd support is at 1.2267-1.2259.
target top is at 1.2380..

Eilat Dolphin 15:10 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Cmon Ausie, raise your head to 7160 again.
Please...

Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
FXQ, at this point in time, not sure I do either!!! LOL Well CAD's has very strong support at 1.2765 and there is some thought USD was going to rebound at the time so THERE you go,

Gold Coast martin 15:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Stay tune for another press of the button...got to share the pleasure..sorry ..pain to some.....

Sydney Alimin 15:05 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 14:58 GMT September 23, 2004

:) hopefully there is no aussie crocs around him at that time, all the best mate

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:05 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
friends..there is change direction of the market for middle term.
now is on the railway in selling usd. too risky if hold buy usd possie..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Wed next week ...time to long euro..

melbourne farmacia 15:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin - aussie went " bushland " in march 03 when howard signed us up....

Just watch that daily T/L over the next few days.

Vancouver Paddyboy 15:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
SPR News:

Energy comission will possibly LEND oil (not release from the SPR) to a couple of refiners.

But have not committed to doing so.

Gold Coast martin 14:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 14:53 GMT September 23, 2004
Expect the lone ranger to be thrown off his horse by end of ny session -commencement of Asian session....Courtesy of the japanese stallion....best trades.....

hk mom 14:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
It looks aud long good now.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Aus/USD 9/29/2004 3:00 PM 0.7045 0.6922

Sydney Alimin 14:53 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
yeah aussie the lone ranger, it is going into the bushland

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Yen late monday at 132.90

sydney 14:51 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD....shows no sign of retreat.....very bullish

dc fxq 14:49 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT September 23, 2004
Target on lONG usd/cad is 1.2847

?????? not sure I follow that LONG position.

Madrid CAB 14:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_september2004.pdf
More data from USA

Eilat Dolphin 14:38 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The Euro is going back to the Mid Atlantic Ridge.
And that ridge location is at 1.2250.
It may take some time or not, but it should get there.
That's where I'll board the Pinta.

Madrid CAB 14:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold in london market 411.05 $/onz.

GOES B747 14:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Alimin,

short CHF/JPY; will pay you the 30pips you are after.

gt

Sydney Alimin 14:32 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:28 GMT September 23, 2004

haha once i am out, i am out mate...dont like it's movement,
looking somewhere else now to steal some pips

GOES B747 14:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
alimin, still LOLing :-)

109.80 at least for USD/JPY before europe open tomorrow.

gt

Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Target on lONG usd/cad is 1.2847

Budapest Daniel 14:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Umm what?

Dallas GEP 14:26 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
US is releasing more oil from the strategic reserves THAT was USD positive

dc fxq 14:26 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
It's all about the Euro-Yen right now.

GOES B747 14:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 14:19 GMT September 23, 2004

trap, it is a trap (or not)...

gt

Eilat Dolphin 14:24 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Daniel/ Wave ? What wave ? I didn't see no wave! Oh, this...

Budapest Daniel 14:20 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
thanks Madrid


btw. what is this sudden direction change in eur/usd? :(

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:20 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Yeeeeeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaaaaa

Sydney Alimin 14:19 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
out of usd/jpy short for 1 pip LOL, not a good sign, euro is falling below 1.23

hk mom 14:19 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
What should I do with the aud now?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:18 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
yen might go back to 110.93

Madrid CAB 14:17 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 14:09 GMT September 23, 2004
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/FXCalendar.html
GL/GT

romania cristi 14:16 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
is gramlich speaking,please?

Rio CV 14:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Budapest,

I have the same info at censored platform! So we have 2 differents values :)

romania nick 14:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The dollar's decline against the euro was extended modestly after a U.S. leading economic indicators report fell for a third straight month. The euro was quoted at $1.2316 vs. $1.2307 just before the report's release. The dollar was little changed against the yen after the report's release, having fallen against its Japanese counterpart in early U.S. trading as oil prices eased. The dollar was recently quoted at 110.43 yen. The U.S. index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in August. Its three months of declines is the longest string since early 2003.

GOES B747 14:11 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
alimin, you take the easy trades.

110.20 within 5-10 mintues...

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:10 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Cad Going Crazy in a few

Dallas GEP 14:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
USD./CAD long taken @ 1.2790 ask. Bottom should be 1.2765 for now anyway

Budapest Daniel 14:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I'm reading -0.4% in my trading application... then whats the real number? :-|

Madrid CAB 14:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Forecast -0.2%

Sydney Alimin 14:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:00 GMT September 23, 2004

i will be smiling if it is 110.20 soon, i am a bit suspicious about it....something is holding it up there eventhough we see gold price is climbing, hopefully it will happen soon

Rio CV 14:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Budapest,

I read that expected was -0.2%, and in this case the data is worst!

Rio CV 14:07 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
gracias Madrid-.

Budapest Daniel 14:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
so thats better than expected (-0.4%)

Madrid CAB 14:05 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
- 0.3 %

Madrid CAB 14:05 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
- 0.3 %

Rio CV 14:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
data???

Eilat Dolphin 14:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The Guns of September need not thunder.

GOES B747 14:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:51 GMT September 23, 2004

smile; it is a good trade...confirmed !!!

Gold Coast martin 13:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
AB...HE!HE!..Followed by the common currency as main course....it is going to get smoked.......g/t

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:57 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 13:48 GMT September 23, 2004 ///
Ask Jay for email

hk ab 13:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
small try roasting goose. 1.28 long

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dow Might Go up I think

Sydney Alimin 13:51 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 13:03 GMT September 23, 2004

yes mate, the stop short order i mentioned before got executed at 110.48 not sure whether this is a good time to take a position before data though, but who cares now the trade has been executed...i trade what i see and as far as it is concerned, under 110.60 again is negative...good luck to both of us

Budapest Daniel 13:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
may is ask what are these numbers associated with the now() function?

Gen dk 13:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 13:44 GMT September 23, 2004 //
Roger That!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 13:43 GMT September 23, 2004
bahrain, once again, I'd like to ask that is this excel story usable for you? Does it help you much?

///
This is one of methods I use...
Yes It Does Help alot

Global-View 13:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:40 GMT September 23, 2004 (and others) - please use the Help Forum for this discussion.

Budapest Daniel 13:43 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
bahrain, once again, I'd like to ask that is this excel story usable for you? Does it help you much?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:40 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
chf equations

High =now()*-0.0046481742770939+179.045229293091+2*0.00433949014684779
Low =now()*-0.00229716244593014+89.0943500277981-2*0.00258215274767498

Spotforex NY 13:38 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
worcester js 13:34

John Murphy wrote the bible on Tech analysis...He is clear in his writing.

also check out the global-view bookstore on this website.

Gen dk 13:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GOES B747 13:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips;

I see that you are very good with XLS calculations, may you calculate US deficit with the following prices:

EUR/USD @ 1.300-1.3200 // 1.1200-1.1400
USD/JPY @ 116-118 // 104-106

tia

NewYork frankie 13:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi Valdez, I feel even more confident that the euro will get to 1.2370. I'm sorry but your calls are great for counter trading.

worcester js 13:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone know any simple books on technical analyysis?

NYC YIPPEE 13:31 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Selling AUDJPY at 78.95. Will look again next week.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I see frequent comment regarding a range change for what I've come to call "rogue" pair (€/$). For those who "hope" for a range change for rogue, it can't happen unless a sustained (the following session too) NY session close happens at 1.2410-1.2450 to "prove it" and we're a ways from that, but within the forseeable horizon. At this point I personally am paying little attention to both fundamentals and chart tricks; this is "seat of pants" trading time IMHO as it smells of a range change coming up for rogue (above 1.24 sustained) likely with different chart patterns which won't apply much to the eratics we've seen this last 30 days. No, I can't say when; soothsaying is for soothsayers who run out of things for themselves to do or give/sell "predictions" involving 350 pips leeway.

GOES B747 13:23 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ADK, I know the feeling, it wakes me up the best :-)

gt

GOES B747 13:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
date=data

USD/JPY: 110.70 is the key for now; if not taken before 13:58 GMT than it is a heavy short.

valid until 15mins. before US session close.

gt

London ADK 13:20 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
747 - Sometimes the smallest things just go straight over my head.

GOES B747 13:19 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
next date @ 14:00 GMT

gt

GOES B747 13:19 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, prices are moving towards pre 12:30GMT data.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:16 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd...
You like it?

GOES B747 13:16 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
London ADK 13:10 GMT September 23, 2004

because price is matter of time, and time is the only to judge if you are in the RED or black.

I just calculate both positions as one (even CCYS not same) and will cash both out when 60pips tuoch; easier to do that with $$$ (account CCY) values.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:15 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
For t+ 1 for Cable High Equation..the number is 1.8040...if Happy with that for next days high ..then short Cable
Walla

dc fxq 13:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I just posted a question on the help forum, could anyone here perhaps answer it?

TIA

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:11 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC// Just click the link I gave below for times.
Tomorrow's USD stuff:
US Durable Goods Orders (AUG) 12:30 concensus:-0.20% prev:1.70%
US -Less Transportation (AUG) 12:30 concensus: 1.00% prev: 0.10%
USD Existing Home Sales (AUG) 14:00 concensus:6.64M prev:6.72M
G8 Foreign Ministers Meeting (all c'ncys)

Bruxville Jim 13:11 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Rio, the expression says: I is very likely that the exchange rate will remain between those two bands... imho...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:11 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Rio CV 13:06 GMT September 23, 2004
Sorry, dont understand. You expect the high of the eur over 1.2400 today and the gbp no going higher?

Sort auto trading..
if any time ( 1 Week) the High is toughed (Forecast Equaion vs. Actual)...then You short...That's all

London ADK 13:10 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Why 3 minutes?

GOES B747 13:07 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
when GBP/JPY tuoch 199.30/40 I take a short and 3minutes later twill ake USD/JPY short (no matter the price); for total of 60pips per both trades.

gt

Rio CV 13:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, dont understand. You expect the high of the eur over 1.2400 today and the gbp no going higher?

Dallas GEP 13:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Closed gbp/jpy shorts at BE

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:05 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Jim..
One to two weeks max

NYC 13:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Did leading indicators come out?

Budapest Daniel 13:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
bahrain, please answer for my question pls. :)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Rio..
No the high at the time You're in...meaning short it there...
Maybe when check the equation 24 Hours from now it will give You 8040 somewhere there..
why Buy it!!...it a short Sell

Gen dk 13:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GOES B747 13:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
alimin,

did you take USD/JPY short?

gt

Bruxville Jim 13:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Using Bahrain's expression for Eur:
LOW HIGH
23.Sep 1.2158 1.2473
24.Sep 1.2135 1.2426
25.Sep 1.2112 1.2380
26.Sep 1.2089 1.2334
27.Sep 1.2066 1.2287
28.Sep 1.2043 1.2241
29.Sep 1.2020 1.2194
30.Sep 1.1998 1.2148
01.Okt 1.1975 1.2101
02.Okt 1.1952 1.2055
03.Okt 1.1929 1.2008
04.Okt 1.1906 1.1962
05.Okt 1.1883 1.1915
06.Okt 1.1860 1.1869
07.Okt 1.1837 1.1822
08.Okt 1.1814 1.1776
09.Okt 1.1791 1.1729
10.Okt 1.1768 1.1683
11.Okt 1.1745 1.1636
12.Okt 1.1722 1.1590
13.Okt 1.1699 1.1543
14.Okt 1.1676 1.1497
15.Okt 1.1653 1.1450
16.Okt 1.1630 1.1404
17.Okt 1.1607 1.1357
18.Okt 1.1584 1.1311
19.Okt 1.1561 1.1264
20.Okt 1.1538 1.1218
21.Okt 1.1515 1.1171
22.Okt 1.1492 1.1125
23.Okt 1.1469 1.1079
24.Okt 1.1446 1.1032
25.Okt 1.1423 1.0986
26.Okt 1.1400 1.0939
27.Okt 1.1377 1.0893
28.Okt 1.1354 1.0846
29.Okt 1.1331 1.0800
30.Okt 1.1308 1.0753
31.Okt 1.1285 1.0707

Bahrain, how come lows are higher than highs?
BTW, you gave equal expressions for Eur and Gbp...

Rio CV 13:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips

so for you Cable is still a strong buy at this level?

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
For full FX world event calendar today in GMT times with concensus and previous data, click HERE at d a i l y f x dot com.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:56 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Cable for the High Should give You a level 1.8080 and decreasing over time (NY)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Better levels then any chartist

worcester js 12:54 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone expecting anything big from the gremlin @ 10?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Cable
High =now()*-0.0046481742770939+179.045229293091+2*0.00433949014684779
Low =now()*-0.00229716244593014+89.0943500277981-2*0.00258215274767498

Sydney Alimin 12:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy falling under 110.60 itself is negative, not sure how this will effect other pairs soon, but this pair has been tricky with its weird ranges, need more confirmation in the next 3 hours

Budapest Daniel 12:50 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, Is it really working? Do you use it with more success than failures?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Just copy the first equation and paste into Excel (Any cell)...change Your time (Control Panel) to NY ET
That equation will Dynamcially give a level for the time You're in...

GOES B747 12:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
at the moment is looks the below prices represent the walls for this week:

EUR/USD: 1.2350/60
USD/JPY: 110.95/111.05
GBP/JPY: 199.85/95

gt

Sydney Alimin 12:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:38 GMT September 23, 2004

how do you arrive at those 20 decimal-place numbers and what do they mean?

NewYork frankie 12:40 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
This euro is a stubborn mule. I'm hoping to have more funds to invest after I sell my casio watch that I've had for 15 years to invest in another lot.

Gen dk 12:38 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:38 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys...
Follow the euro levels with these equation into excel...copy this into a cell
=NOW()*-0.0046481742770939+179.045229293091+2*0.00433949014684779
For the high entry

and this
=NOW()*-0.00229716244593014+89.0943500277981-2*0.00258215274767498
For the Low entry

Your time from control panel should same as NY

These should work for a week or two..GT




Msc Eqwis 12:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
18:00gmt

Mtl JP 12:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
350 vs 335K expected

melb MA 12:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
continuing claims 2883 f/cast 2880

Milan LM 12:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
350K
+14K

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 12:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I adds another contracts Buy GBP/$ at 1.8020 with STP 1.7990 and T/P break 1.8046.

Washington DC 12:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
September 23 FOMC Minutes
Meeting of August 10, 2004
2:00 p.m.

Staten Island, NY Rainmaker 12:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ANy news on the Unemployment claims numbers

Belgrade Knez 12:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ 12:17 GMT September 23, 2004
What time are the FOMC minutes? In GMT pls. TIA

18:00 GMT

Eilat Dolphin 12:26 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
jan/ FOMC minutes are like dynamite sticks or like Japanese candelsticks. Some minutes are longer than others. Basically they are what Greenspan and his buddies said while chewing on their cigar sticks and drawing us a brave new world Order.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:26 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The Good, the Bad & the Ugly:

. Jobless claims are expected to inch up to 335,000 - Bus'ness Week's James Mehring, Analyst says:
"First-time claims for jobless benefits for the week ended Sept. 18 are expected to inch up to 335,000, according to the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Action Economics. Jobless claims climbed to 333,000 in the week ended Sept. 11, from 317,000 in the week ended Sept. 4."

SAME VIEW:
. The initial claims are expected to be little changed - KBC Bank's Piet Lammens, Economist at K B C Bank says:
"The initial claims are expected to be little changed from last week's 333 000. Before last week, claims showed a very volatile pattern, rising to 360 000 at the end of August, before plunging to 317 000 in the next week.

PREVIEW: U.S. LEADING INDICATORS
. US: Index of Leading Indicators Could Fall says Cr'dit Suisse First Boston's International Research Team:
"The Index of Leading Indicators might fall for the third consecutive month in August. We haven’t seen a losing streak that long since the first three months of 2003. Declines in vendor performance, the S&P 500, the money supply and consumer expectations, combined with a flatter yield curve, should more than offset lower jobless claims."

.Jobless claims features today - M e l l o n For'n Exchange
Ian Gunner, Head of FX Research says: "Jobless claims data are also due, but the market may struggle to ascertain an underlying trend amidst all the disruptions from the weather."


GOES B747 12:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD going lower after the data; not because of the data just the data as an excuse.

gt

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 12:23 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ,

"FOMC Minutes" is a fully report abt what was Greenspanian in FED made decicion and their viewing abt monetary condition at last FOMC meeting.

It's a good report and important to us to know fully fiewing of US Central Bank abt the US econo-monetary condition and what they has been thingking abt.

Milan LM 12:22 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
18.00 GMT

Belgrad KZ 12:17 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
What time are the FOMC minutes? In GMT pls. TIA

nyc jk 12:14 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
thanks Farmacia. 1.8065 is a model break level for me, granted more for the medium term than any great indication on the day, but would be a plus to see it take that. gl

praga jan 12:13 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
what is fomc minutes,please?thanx.

melbourne farmacia 12:10 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk - maybe a bit more consolidation under this T/L 1.8050.. chart pattern still looks positive within 1.7910 -1.8050... like u, holding for now..

Sydney Alimin 12:07 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 11:58 GMT September 23, 2004

no mate, i dont have any position with it yet, last night was shorting but got stopped out....thinking of buying the break few hours back but a bit hesitated coz i didn't feel comfortable, i guess i'll just sit and enjoy whatever show it performs...a stop short position under 110.50 might work well targetting the downside should this upside fail

GVI Jay 12:05 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   

Last Call: We are looking for more participants for our bi-weekly tracking survey and if you are a "reasonably" experienced trader and would like to participate, send an email to [email protected] and we will put you on our list.

GOES B747 12:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 11:34 GMT September 23, 2004

no chance, with all the arms Turkey purchases from USA it looks very far. - but, who knows :-)

GOES B747 11:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 11:45 GMT September 23, 2004

I got your message, good luck with shorting USD/JPY.

gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Frankie//if you want to gamble all, don't gamble any of your capital, gamble half your winnings only since you're on a winning streak. Stuff that capital and the other half of your FX winnings back in your portfolio to diversify and minimize your losses (which you will eventually -I assure you- sustain). We're still range trading now pal even tho we WANT to see a trend change, that means this unattended €/$ fire hose turned full up will, as in the past, flip and jerk wildly from speculations and expectations with absolutely no mind as to which direction(s). Data days such as today are inherently eaters of stops. If you want to gamble casino style & if your platform has this option, place a bet with 20 pip stoploss and a hedge = in value with the same 20 pip stop loss and let her fly on autopilot "hoping" (bad word in FX) your platform will honor the stops in busy times (which frequently they don't).

praga jan 11:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
is it possible that tonight fomc minutes to move eur/usd significantly?thanx.

Sydney Alimin 11:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
sorry meant to say 'as long as'

Sydney Alimin 11:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 11:36 GMT September 23, 2004

what do you think of usd/jpy? any chance to see 111 by NY close today or the opposite will happen? it looks a bit exhausted to be honest, but as soon as it is trading above 110.60 i won't rule 111 out just yet

nyc jk 11:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
thanks vm, Farmacia. still holding some, what you reckon on it today?

melbourne farmacia 11:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk - nice gbp trade mate. GT

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 11:40 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Just spend my time for take profit GBP and EUR positions with trial stops halfly. Keep doing well everyone, in the next couple of minutes the price would shoot u up! LMAO
GL !

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 11:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone!
Whata hectic market at time being?! LOL
I need some adrenaline coming in my trading desksome more, pls...

See if we can see GBP/$ break it's upper band Yearly FIBO 66% resistance, then we would see sky-rocketing Pound fastly, otherwise I would just sit with my seatbelt. Becareful and GL !

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin// You are cavalier for trying to save Frankie's neck but (A) is he telling the truth that he's wagering all his account (B) is he even trading (any mother's son can post here) and (C) perhaps his "account" is an extremely small portion of his risk capital Everything's relative.

Any red white & blue trader wants to see 1.24 or higher for the good of US exports and let's face it, the €$ pair seems inclined (pun intended) to make the ascent.

"American credit is a house of cards..one major glitch in the economy and it falls." Well, they've said that for years so bring your lunch if you expect it soon, it'll take a while. Yanks are tougher than you may think.

swidnica profi-forex 11:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
i think eur/usd close above 1,2350 today so buy at current level sl below 1,2270 tp open if we break 1,2350 sl move up at 1,2310

GOES B747 11:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 11:33 GMT September 23, 2004

I do short; looking to get out square describes better for the moment.

gt

London ADK 11:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:32 - On the other hand.....

Eilat Dolphin 11:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
B747/ Just make sure that the USA citizens don't have to kiss the Turkish ladies, because of that adultery law about to pass there. It'll give them guys the right to knive out your family jewels clean.

Sydney Alimin 11:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 11:27 GMT September 23, 2004

i thought u were shorting usd/jpy?

Dallas GEP 11:32 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Sorry RE: gbp/jpy it's quite possible GBP/JPY has made it's high for London Session.

KL MYR 11:30 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
US data tonite cud b mind-boggling on the -ve side fellas...cos chart says usd blundgeoning..

GOES B747 11:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
USA plans to introduce new law; each American have to kiss A Japanese, Chinese, Korean, German every citizen of country that US hold negative trade balance with; to keep good relation with the people that make US citizens to celebrate for free.
The major problem for the US economy is that credit expanding more than the expansion of the economy.
but; what the censored logics and FX have in common

For FX traders ir means the USD/JPY will go higher :-)

gt


NewYork frankie 11:26 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I'm using all my account to buy more euros at 1.2322 for 1.2370

Eilat Dolphin 11:23 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Frankie/ You love FX, but how are you going to make sure that FX loves you ?... Especially if you keep cimbing the Everest. Remember that almost twenty % of those that went up there (for real) never made it down.

In FX anyone who leverages max is going to get frozen once out of any two events.

Udine Cael 11:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$ above 1.2345 for 1.2370/80 - supp. 1.2190
GBP/$ above 1.8055 for 1.8110/30 - supp. 1.7865
AUD/$ next 0.7185/90 - supp. 0.7060

Budapest Daniel 11:15 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallin, do you think it'll touch that level again?

Tallinn viies 11:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
sold euros at 1,2327 fwiw
will buy them back at 1,2275/85 level ...

New York frankie 11:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ok guys, just closed out my cable longs for 37pip profits. will reenter at 1.80 if seen

honolulu Byron 11:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
KL MYR // at least, we can hold USD bearish view until christmas...

KL MYR 11:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Honolulu, Byron//Any idea what's gonna cause usd to plummet tonite? Anyone any ideas?

Gen dk 11:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Budapest Daniel 11:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The same hold me away from putting a short order... But that is one and a half hour apart... better safe than sorry :)

Pecs Andras 11:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 10:59 GMT September 23, 2004
The first 1 or 2 days may be like that, mate, but tell us more after the 100-200 first days!
Hope you will still be happy. All the best!

Pecs Andras 10:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Daniel
I got stopped out once, but I am eyeing another one now.
Maybe I will wait for the US data

NewYork frankie 10:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Go my 2 beauties, go. This beats robbing blind old ladies on crutches anyday. I'm just wondering how much I can pawn my missus for to get some extra stake money!

Gen dk 10:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

honolulu Byron 10:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
KL MYR // not only today, it's coming 2~3 months.

Budapest Daniel 10:57 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
András are you planning on going short on aud/usd either?

KL MYR 10:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Guys, I just hv an eerie feeling sumthin bad is gonna happen to usd tonite.......

Gold Coast martin 10:51 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 10:48 GMT September 23, 2004
As per my earlier post resistance at 7143 should hold ..it has been holding for the past 2 hours....it is at the top of its upside now.....time for a short....g/t

Pecs Andras 10:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Martin
Do you see any more upside for the aussi from here?

Gold Coast martin 10:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 10:44 GMT September 23, 2004
have you got any more brothers Frankie?

Sydney Alimin 10:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 10:44 GMT September 23, 2004

you sounded like you were in a casino or something :) good luck

Budapest Daniel 10:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
good luck frankie

NewYork frankie 10:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Ive just leveraged my entire account buying more euros and pounds. If all goes according to plan, I'll double my account today! Of course, if it goes the other way I'll eat some humble pie. I'm using no stops!

KL KL 10:43 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
SOLD gbpjpy 199.45 sl 15 above...de ja vu ....

prague viktor 10:39 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
KL..(I think US figures will suprise many)it will be so bad or so good! tia

Budapest Daniel 10:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
8:30 AM: Initial jobless claims
10:00 AM: Leading indicators

Will these have any effect on the eur/usd product today?

London Tom 10:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Not aware of any major US data out today to surprise us with? Minutes of August FOMC due out 18.00 GMT

SLC TJ 10:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Romania cristi -
Federal Reserve to release minutes of Aug. 10 FOMC meeting in Washington.

KL KL 10:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ok out gbpjpy at 199.13...+ 30 pips reshort near the 40 again no guts just hit and run...fwiw...I think US figures will suprise many....so look out at the bottom.....magic hands at work!!

romania cristi 10:24 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
what kind of fomc meeting will take place at 18 gmt,please?

Sydney Alimin 10:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy manages to stay above 110.60 but this rally looks a bit exhausted failing to go through 111 level yet...maybe a decoy though

wellington am 10:19 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP

What do you reckon. Time to bail on the GBP/JPY or hang tough - trending or ranging?

NewYork frankie 10:13 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
it seems i picked a good day to start trading. I'm just going to buy some cable here at 1.80 for 1.8070 when the US data comes out. i love forex already

Tallinn viies 10:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
euo high at 1,2331 bid seems to be exactly the same what we saw yesterday
fwiw

New York frankie 10:10 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
wow this euro is going to blow. buying even more euros here. what a steal at this price!

NewYork Frankie 10:07 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
buying more euro here at 1.2322 for 1.2370

Tallinn viies 10:07 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
selling out some of euro long positions here over 1,2320 isnt bad idea I think.
1,2345/50 could cap it during european hours.
imho

hk ab 10:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ram//I think that is a very trivial view for many analysts comp. now. GL.

hk ab 09:57 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
one more note is, if this eur drops thru 1.23 before US data, I will remove the eur short entry.

hk ab 09:54 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
This weekly pennant contraction will be matured soon, BUT seems many players can't still make a final decision,even the exp. ones....
data on UK in 5 mins might make some turmoil.
GL. Off screen and I don't want to get overwhelmed.

lon ram 09:51 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab what is ur opinion in that:
EUR/USD - the swing level at 1.2225 survived and it seems like the short-term uptrend survived the test. Further upmove beyond 1.2300 reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook still looks good -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.

hk ab 09:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ram// with this mighty of BOJ hands, all things go uncertainty on yen. Same view as this morning.

hk ab 09:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
eur play is still v. nervous.

NewYork frankie 09:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
buying euro here. 1.2316 target 1.2370

london ram 09:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
hello hk ab
what,s you opinion about EUR/USD ,,is it going to fly
thanks

hk ab 09:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
place small eur short limit 1.2320 with *10* pips stop? make it 1.2333 (bid).

KL KL 09:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
SOLD gbpjpy 199.43 sl 30 above...sweating a bit now....

hk ab 09:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy 136.90 limit s/l 137.13 (bid).....

Gen dk 09:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 09:31 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Anyone still need to tell gbp bearish tale?
blasting soon.

hk dad 09:30 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
jap cross 101 basics for newbies, if you are bullish usdjpy then you shouldn't be bearish gbpjpy. can't have it both way
gbpjap now making a beeline for 204. fwiw

Gen dk 09:17 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney Alimin 09:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
if this usd/jpy rally is true and followed by strengthening of usd in other pairs, i think we will see 112 soon

Gold Coast martin 09:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS GEP....FWIW..i have been holding a gbp/ jpy possie for the last 5 days...i am in the red but the turnaround ogf this loaded pair is not far away....patience...g/t

Dallas GEP 09:07 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Could very well happen. Think not..but it could. I never encourage anyone to take gbp/jpy possies because they are very dangerous if lot sizes are not adjusted accordingly. It is a rags or riches type of pair.

Prague JV 09:06 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The risk here is , that we have been used to trade range for considereble time . market has changet a litle bit in my openien in last too days and overbought and oversold levels are being ignored , thought some sign of trending here ?????

wellington am 09:05 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP - I only hope that doesn't happen to your GBP/JPY shorts!

Dallas GEP 09:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
My Aussie shorts from .7060 stopped out so fast at .7090 it would make your head spin!! LOL

Dammam A 09:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin .... many thanks

Gold Coast martin 09:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dammam A 08:53 GMT September 23, 2004
For today only look for euro to trade up to 12321 with a target of 12238...g/t.....i dont expect 12320 to be reached while yen is trading over 11060....the good hand of the japan is protecting us...g/t

London ADK 08:57 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Glad to see you are not wearing a baby blue blouse Dallas. GL and GT to you

Dallas GEP 08:56 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ADK I play with fire every day. THNAKS

Dammam A 08:53 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello Gold Coast martin
What's ur view of cable & eur/$ today;pls.?
Thank u

London ADK 08:52 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
You are playing with fire today Dallas

Dallas GEP 08:50 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
SOLD more GBP/JPY @ 199.33

Gen dk 08:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London 08:48 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko nice sell EUR/AUD from 1.77 thanks.

london 08:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
china and japan back buying aud in good siae last couple days fwiw.

Gold Coast martin 08:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Anything over 7118-22 is a good entry for a target of 7025...with stops at 7043 which is a major resistance level...g/t

Syd 08:39 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
What a shi.t but looking to sell soon
aud

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I inform you that gbp/usd is on the start level now,because gbp/jpy have get 199.23. danger level now.. better exit your buy gbp now..

Haifa ac 08:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town 18:59 GMT September 22, 2004
"...- if you factor in hedonic price indexing (HPI), //

LOL. Long time no see. Does HPI include the 550k fine for CBS for showing JJ bear breast?!

Syd 08:30 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
hk mom If your correct I will be a seller there GT.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:29 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy is on the counting down now !!..

Ldn 08:29 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Economists expect a pullback in CBI's industrial trends survey, UK manufacturing prospects has been less positive in Sep with a big drop in the Aug PMI and surprisingly weak output data for July 1000 GMT

Gen dk 08:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lon ram 08:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello Raden Mas -- what are your views on EUR/USD at the current level? Thanks for you

hk mom 08:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
syd while aud/jpy above 0.7850 support aud for .7130-50 intraday before pullback. break above .7890 confirms

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:22 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I dont think gbp/usd will up today, caused by gbp/jpy will get top at 199.23..

Syd 08:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt please dont blame me if it goes higher but just my gut feeling on this feel the aud is before elections very tricky and if you can take a few pips well done, picture very cloudy but dont think it will rally too far before 9th October
Just dont want people to get stuck with long positions

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:18 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
first oscilation eur/usd pattern is from 1.2290 to 1.2235, will out of that oscilation pattern if broke to 1.2235 to get 1.2154..

hong kong nt 08:17 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd -- thanks for your call, t/p now...

Syd 08:13 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone in the Aud at the moment

Hourly studies are overbought and beginning to show signs of a pullback. The uptrend however remains in place on the daily charts and we continue to favor the buying dips sceanrio
while above 0.6935 support FWIW from IFR.
worth thinking about.

Sydney Alimin 08:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
if usd/jpy is still held above 110.60, i think it is a bit hard for euro to rally beyond 1.23...all IMHO

Budapest Daniel 08:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The same to you Jakarta :)

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 08:11 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel,

Indeed, I didn't even think that u offend me (it would waste ur time, dont it?!). Thanks to ur nice words here. Appreciate with radenmas and other friends here, special thanks for GVI may God Bless u all.
I have the time so shortly before my meeting with my stuffs in next 10 minutes.

Have a nice trading day and All the best !!

Syd 08:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
aussi struggling here to mount 71 any views out there appreciated

Budapest Daniel 08:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta, my post was only a remark, I didn't intend to offend you or anyone else here...

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 07:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf has reacted on 1.2597 since the begining of european session. It would be a strong sell signal if the pair fails to open above that level

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 07:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dear Budapest Daniel,

It doesn't matter the 2 or 100 of Indonesian participants here going north or south, even someone from us can go nowhere at the market while the other waking up at the market.

I prefer to belive my serlf analitical which I gave this forum, u can aggree with mine or other is not a sin LOL

GBP at current rate is on Wave 4 on the non-complex/irregular patterns yet, I belive that the 5th wave up would be more stronger than anyone suspecting!
And now, please try to understand our nice comunity here and be good! LMAO

gold coast miko 07:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Raden, thank you. your advice is appreciated. Good luck tonite

Los Angeles ss 07:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas -- please clarify your last post. Do you think GBP will go below 1.79 today? Thanks.

Budapest Daniel 07:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
One Indonesian says it is going to north, the other one says it is going to south :)

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
maybe can help you.
please focuse gbp/usd about 1.7835-40= bottom..

gold coast miko 07:35 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Raden, So you are sugesting the the pair have reached todays high and will head downward from this level.
sorry for all the questions , I am just trying to understand your style of english (lingo)

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:32 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
gold have done at 407.80.
be carefull maybe that level is top of today..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:28 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
gold coast miko 07:25 GMT September 23, 2004
start level = top/bottom

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 07:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Good Day everyone!

I think the market would be more attractive for today as cross rate trading (specially eurjpy and gbpjpy) give us an alert that it would be a stable in price. At the moment I prefer to Buy EUR/$ at current level with STP 1.2250 and T/P 1.2350-1.2385. I m using 4hours chart with MA21 and MA55 crossed over already and signaling mthat market tend to sky-rocketing again soon!

Also for GBP/$ Buy at current level with STP 1.7903, T/P 1.8030 even can break the main FIBO 66% Yearly around 1.8046 to go next resistance 1.8160 area.

One more, I Short $/JPY at 110.70 with STP 111.15, T/P 109.35. There are some technical indicators give us signaling Bearish Divergence and I belive the dollar would be downfall.

Cheers and GL!

gold coast miko 07:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Raden-Mas, can you explain the term start level

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:24 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Chicago DL 07:11 GMT September 23, 2004
I am sorry..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:22 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
also usd/chf..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
hey friends !! eur/usd is on the start level now.
be carefull !!!
see my levels !!..

Chicago DL 07:11 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas.........If you dont mind me saying, but this post is for usefull information and idea's, what you have just posted is a waist of time and space

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss,
usd/jpy
Level Sell :
111.15
111.36
Level buy :
110.47
110.31
109.89

usd/chf
Level Sell :
1.2639
1.2648
1.2673
1.2693
1.2713
1.2772
1.2808
1.2834
1.2863
Level buy :
1.2584
1.2535
1.2468
1.2442
1.2390
1.2351

Gold
Level sell :
407.80

Level buy :
403.40
400.84
402.70
396.70
raden mas..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:07 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd
Level Sell :
1.2287
1.2351
1.2379
1.2390
1.2442
1.2468
Level buy :
1.2235
1.2212
1.2192
1.2169
1.2144
1.2111
1.2079

gbp/usd
Level Sell :
1.7952
1.8036
1.8055
1.8065
1.8134
Level Buy :
1.7869
1.7838
1.7801
1.7772
1.7734
1.7694

aud/usd
Level sell :
0.7118
0.7138
0.7200
0.7236
Level buy :
0.7059
0.7046
0.6989
0.6951
raden mas..

Syd 06:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW stops said to be above 71 we will see

Prague JV 06:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy short term ( intraday ) top in place for now IMHO .
Now consolidation or pull/back . stop 136.15 shold do for some pips to pinch . In longer term thing that we will see atack on 136.50

Syd 06:22 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Prague JV totally agree with you.

Prague JV 06:12 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd ,/ that is problem , but for different part of the world aplpy different approach . It is possible that diveloped ekonomies will stay in check for longer then first thought , while emmerging markets ( india , eastern europe and south america ......) will be the one who is attracting all the world money .

sydney 06:10 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Westpac says aud/usd looking good for .7150 short term

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 06:08 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 05:46 GMT September 23, 2004
wait.. I am still doing to see the scenario for today.
I look very interesting for today. I hope you are ready..

Syd 06:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Prague JV yes saw that too, problem is with rates higher will stifle growth ,lower will cause faster growth .. Banks are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Syd 05:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
seems were getting a lot of fakes around .7077 ?? abit late

Prague JV 05:56 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd - You might find it interesting this article :
New Zealand's current account deficit unexpectedly widened in the year ended June 30 because consumers spent more on cars, appliances and other imports, while the price of imported gasoline surged. The annual gap widened to NZ$6.44 billion ($4.3 billion) from a revised NZ$6.02 billion in the year through March, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington. That's the biggest gap since September 2000. Economists expected the deficit would narrow to NZ$5.6 billion. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard this month raised the benchmark interest rate for a fifth time this year to 6.25 percent and said another increase is needed to slow the economy and curb inflation. Economists expect he will raise the rate to 6.5 percent on Oct. 28.

Also to add , that Jap fin.minister sayd that those who are betting on JPY strenghtening are also betting on decreaseing
in global ekonomi .
IMO the global ekonomi is not just yet ready to florish till we see oil price cleary revers .
But I am not ekonomic or fundamental trader , just find it interesting .

Tech speaking I like jpy shorts and now it seams have some fundamental support .

Los Angeles ss 05:46 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello Raden Mas -- what are your views on GBP/USD at the current level? Thanks for your input.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 05:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon everybody !!..

sydney 05:44 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Is AUD/USD worth going long at this stage. .7077

Syd 05:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
SHANGHAI (AP)--Louis Vuitton opened a glamorous new Shanghai boutique Thursday, defying Chinese copycats who have flooded world markets with cheap knockoffs of its handbags. Gilt-lined LV steamer trunks and models in fur-lined coats and stiletto heels abounded as Louis Vuitton executives christened the spacious outlet, said to be China's biggest luxury brand store, in the Plaza 66 mall on ritzy Nanjing West Rd. The Shanghai opening was timed to coincide with China's first ever Formula One grand prix, to be held Sunday. Louis Vuitton has also opened stores in Xi'an, in north-central China, and Xiamen, on the southeast coast, bringing the number of its outlets on the mainland to 11.Sales are strongest at boutiques in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, homes to most of communist China's new class of ultrarich, Zanardi-Landi said. But even in provincial cities there are plenty of customers willing to plunk down 11,500 yuan (US$1=CNY8.28) for a little black dress or CNY4,650 for a pair of pink LV sneakers. "The growth rate in China is at such a speed it's a challenge to keep up with it," he said.


Syd 05:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
22-30yrs of age (should read)

Syd 05:32 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Prague JV Saw that many are concerned that the rate hike in the UK may have to go a notch higher as if they now start talking cut or no more it could flare up once again , very difficult situation nothing like the last boom and bust when rates were up at 18% . many of the owners from 22-30yrs cant remember rates the lofty.

hong kong nt 05:24 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
AB -- Do you attemept to rename GV to SGV?

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 05:23 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi,
I've got a top on usd/chf at 1.2597. Short at 1.2590 for 1.2555--->1.25

Prague JV 05:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
- Housing prices in the U.K., Australia and Spain may be poised to fall because of an expected increase in global interest rates, the International Monetary Fund said in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook. In countries where home prices are overpriced and household debts has grown, ``there is the risk that an increase in interest rates could trigger a sharp house price drop with more severe consequences for economic activity,'' the IMF said. underpinning a boom in consumer spending that helped Britain post its longest period of growth in about 200 years. HBOS Plc., the nation's biggest mortgage lender, said prices fell in August for the first time in two years.

Syd 05:11 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The RBA stated today that the housing sector still posed risks despite the slowdown and warned that continued economic growth could reignite the housing market. The comments suggest that the door remains open for a rate hike after election.

Ina co'z 05:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello All...!

Hello Jakarta..how are you ?...whats your views about market to day ? thx

wisconsin tim 05:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Informed decision-making comes from a long tradition of guessing and then blaming others for inadequate results.
-- Scott Adams

wisconsin tim 04:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 9/23/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
9/22/2004 AUDUSD 0.7109 0.7033 0.7106 0.7004
9/22/2004 EURGBP 0.6864 0.6820 0.6889 0.6808
9/22/2004 EURUSD 1.2322 1.2221 1.2388 1.2185
9/22/2004 EURYEN 136.43 135.26 136.31 134.68
9/22/2004 GBPUSD 1.8005 1.7858 1.8049 1.7818
9/22/2004 GBPYEN 199.38 197.56 199.10 196.17
9/22/2004 NDZUSD 0.6664 0.6593 0.6677 0.6575
9/22/2004 USDCAD 1.2875 1.2765 1.2925 1.2757
9/22/2004 USDCHF 1.2638 1.2534 1.2696 1.2484
9/22/2004 USDYEN 111.10 110.24 111.10 109.39

Jakarta Cakradara 04:54 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
good morning everybody

Syd 04:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The Kiwi dropped to a low of 6605 overnight as the USD bounced against the European currencies and then recovered to 0.6635 as the USD corrected. The Kiwi was underpinned by a further NZD100 mln in fresh issuance overnight. High yielding currencies are once again favored by international investors, aided by the U.S. 10 year treasury's closing at 3.99%. The NZ current account deficit for the June quarter came in significantly worse than expected at NZD1.788 bln, against a consensus of NZD1.3 bln, lead by a surge in income payment to foreign investors. This showed a rise to 4.6% of GDP from a forecast 4%, but should not pose a threat, as the economy is strong. The Kiwi was initially sold from 6630 to 6620 on the news, but Asian buyers came in and the pairing then climbed in a slow session to test 6643, with the Tokyo holiday limiting activity in the Asian day.

View from IFR on Kiwi

wisconsin tim 04:39 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
well gonna take my first position from a daily candlestick formation ... if you look at the dailys this has worked in the past but in the past e/g was in a downtrend now the dt is not so "clearly" defined.

Short EUR/GBP stops above high tp sub 6800
also closing long eur/usd from morning

Gold Coast martin 04:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 03:42 GMT September 23, 2004
HOUSTON ST...in an earlier dispatch that i received one of the comments were that a lot of the big market movers got into long term usd selling positions with 125-128 targets..as the summer months wore on and these targets have become unattainable,the movers are starting to throw more money in to salvage what they can out their positions...hence the 200-250 pip movement in the last week with the market completely ignoring any positive US data...The BOJ however monitors the market vigilantly and as a result they have been on red alert for september because what is good for these movers is not good for the JAPS....so BOJ have provided a type of hedging against such irrational market moves...the market in september is a manipulation game between BOJ and large funds as they have opposite positions...in the end as the maturity dates of these positions appear i guess they will have to cur losses and stop throwing in more money...on the other end the boj is a central bank and i guess they will never run out of money.....logic tells me to stay on the jap side until we see market re-focussing on data and yen crosses unwind....g/t

Syd 03:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Information collected from spy satellites and radio waves has shown North Korea beefing up troops and equipment around missile launch bases, unidentified government sources.Related government authorities believe that there is a high possibility that these were part of the annual routine activities of North Korean missile units. South Korea's deputy unification minister, comments followed a Japanese media report that Japanese and U.S. intelligence indicate North Korea may be preparing to launch a short-range Nodong missile
Yomiuri Shimbun,
Japanese daily

Syd 02:49 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Clinton Official To Head Schwarzenegger's Charity
now thats good politics

Dallas GEP 02:31 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The greatest accomplishments are generally preceded by the possibility of the greatest failures.

Va Raven 02:27 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Love your style, JK, sharp and BSless!

nyc jk 02:21 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
lol Raven.

ab - look, I don't want this to turn into a big problem (again). I apologize for phrasing my post the way I did. I do stand by the facts and the general point however.

Va Raven 02:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
JK, just a friendly remind, YIP will return right after the show ends on the cartoon network.

Prague JV 02:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
I feel sory for you , ab .

nyc jk 02:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
what's the matter ab, you don't like someone pointing out the facts? you can't argue them so you just resort to comments like that?

hk ab 02:00 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
jk//you should note which one is at the top 1 in the Economist at your hands.

Syd 01:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The deficit is shaping up as a key topic for the G7 ministers.
America's G7 partners have called attention to the U.S. current-account deficit as one of the key global imbalances that must be addressed, and said they hope to hear what the U.S. plans to do

with this in mind Dollar may sell off into the meeting


hk ab , jk has a point that was rather childish.

hk ab 01:58 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
r there anything from your mouth cleaner?

hk ab 01:57 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
jk// eat all the sh.t for your own goodness.....

nyc jk 01:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ab - do you actually make this sh*t up yourself? I could go on about the whole statement, but lets look at the last part:
hk ab 01:41 GMT September 23, 2004
......US doesn't need a weak USD at all afterall 'cos they don't have much to export

according to the latest figures from the Economist, the US is the second largest exporter in the world in terms of % of total world exports. The EURO zone is tops, with a 16.8% global share, US second with 14.7% share. Incidentally , China is 9th with a 3.54% share. Try reading a few facts before writing.

hk ab 01:41 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
China pushes down USD to punish US and protect the Chinese goods.
Japan is jealous, and then push up the dlr/jpy and together the yen crosses move.
But Chinese did it better and more and more goods are produced by Chinese in the last decade.
So, Chinese has more USD to sell at hands.
This cycle then runs and runs........
Maybe till eurdlr 5.0? Then, euroland might feel the pain. The pain is too small for them now.
US doesn't need a weak USD at all afterall 'cos they don't have much to export

Gold Coast martin 01:36 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 01:25 GMT September 23, 2004
The so called next big move will be sparked off by the yen crosses ....which way?..if you look at the yen crosses they seem loaded so a move to the downside is favoured....g/t

Careful not to get caught on the wrong side......g/t

Syd 01:33 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Speculators heavily selling JPY across board

shanghai bc 01:32 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   

Well-dressed and over-fed G-7 officials may scuttle this happy Yen-Carry -Trade..Till then,have a nice party..

Dallas GEP 01:31 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
BOJ never sleeps

hk ab 01:30 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
YIPPEE, For one, I am waiting eur/jpy 136.90....
I believe the invisible hand need to overcome an important hurdle at 137....

Sydney Alimin 01:29 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
thx GEP it surely is bullish right now on the break of the 110.60 level
if BOJ wants to intervene this is a very good chance for them but it is a public holiday in Japan or are they operating today as well?

Dallas GEP 01:23 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
KL, you are right and IMO that's what happened YESTERDAY when EURO went long when rate data was announced. No more posting for a while from me. You learn more listening than talking that's why you have TWO ears and ONE mouth. I forget that sometimes!! LOL

Dallas GEP 01:20 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
ALIMIN....usd/jpy has fairly strong resistance @ 111.05/10 (good target for longs) .....If 111.20 prints it could be off to the races LONG

KL KL 01:19 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP hope you are aware Japan is not trading today...some public holiday...so potential for stop hunt play..gl gt

Dallas GEP 01:18 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Ok In on GBP/JPY at 198.80 SHORT now....careful because right now YEN pairs look bullish. For you newbies, most should avoid this pair. VERY VOLATILE and support and resistance lines are generally 60 pips apart.

Sydney Alimin 01:15 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: do you follow usd/jpy much? what do you see as the next target for long position if i play the breakout?

hk ab 01:11 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
YIPPEE, nice one again on aud/jpy.
Never miss......

Dallas GEP 01:10 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
AM, gbp/jpy's fate is very closely tied to usd/jpy as you are aware even more so than gbp/usd influence. I would say that it is MORE likely gbp/jpy will be trending medium term SHORT but quite frankly I am much better with short term trends than medium, that's why I daytrade and don't do position trading. BTW if gbp/jpy breaks thru this 198.80 area next level would be 199.10/15

SanFrancisco TG 01:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
But Dolphin - THEY have always been here to PROVID FOR US right ? Enjoy your day.

Sydney Alimin 01:05 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
i wonder who is selling all this yen, looks like today's actions are with these yen pairs

wellington am 01:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP, my thoughts too. Will be happy to get out at 198 even. Had had a good run with this pair though, and see a longer term picture of 200/04+ unfolding. ??

KL KL 01:04 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP when you short gbpjpy do you also short gbpusd....just wondering. if not what are the reasons?? tia

Dallas GEP 01:03 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Am...I would say 197.40.....IF you wanted to be very conservative...TP at +60 pips and get out

wellington am 01:01 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:59 GMT September 23, 2004
Short at GPB/JPY at 198.50. What's your predicted tp on this one?

Dallas GEP 00:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Will go short on GBP/jpy at 198.80. BUT....this pair is vERY dangerous. Take smaller lot sizes and wider stops on this pair especially

Eilat Dolphin 00:59 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
TG/ Those "leftists" that didn't change are on the verge of extinction.
Remember Jerry Rubin peddling the AM EX bank card on TV?
Remember the quarter million crowds in Paris and Berlin against the visit of the Iran's Pahlavi Shah, but none against Khomeini ?

They kind of know where they made mistakes.
(But a sexual revolution had to be done.)

And now there only are the Green one left. They still protest against civil Nuke plants (not the Iranian one), while possibly (only possibly!) warming the planet with their SUVS...

But we had to be nice to them, some of the cutest girls were dressed in green...

Dallas GEP 00:55 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
YEN pairs longing as predicted. Eur.jpy now looks like at least 135.90 will print

Gen dk 00:51 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 00:47 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD technical pattern to continue in a bullish fashion, look for prices to challenge 7090, possible reach 0.7150 near term
Westpac technical report

SanFrancisco TG 00:45 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin - Perhaps once the 1950-60's leftist generation truly dies off then the world can move forward. What a mess they created.

Sydney Alimin 00:39 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
hey this usd/jpy looks quite bullish at the moment, anyone see it breaking to the upside today? say at least 111.20?

Eilat Dolphin 00:37 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
TG/ Totally agree with your exemple on airlines.
I never understood why an airline pilot "needed" to make fifteen thousand $ a month... or nothing! (It is true that my diplomas were one noth below theirs, but still...)

Syd 00:34 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
The Reserve Bank of Australia said Thursday that the nation's financial system remains in good shape as the continuing expansion of the Australian economy provides financial intermediaries with a "robust business environment."
In its second review of Australia's financial system, the RBA said the banking system "continues to record strong profitability, partly as a result of very low bad debts expense, and the insurance industry has benefited from better underwriting results and a pickup in investment returns."
ABC

LA fxnew 00:32 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
hi any view cable?
Thanks

Eilat Dolphin 00:32 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
TG/ However note that the masses of workers do not complain. Take Sweden or Danemark as an exemple.

The Euroies will just perform less, but after all, it's their problem.
For us it'll means goods years ahead : eurusd eurcad eur/whoknows...

After all, happiness is not to be measured by the Mercedes per square kilometer formula.
And the streets of Paris, Berlin are not burning by angry crowds shouting "better pay!"

At least the euro communists have folded four hundred percent. In a single generation. They used to be 25% of voters in Italy and France in the sixties...

A brave new world here, if I may... A bit lazy, I'll admit. Well, more adonistic for sure.

SanFrancisco TG 00:30 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin - Similar circumstances such as the law you site are largely responsible for huge job losses and/or collapse of major companies in the US now. Unions have forced such outlandish wage and benefit requirements on Delta Airlines and now United, for example, that Delta has gone bankrupt and United warns of the same shortly.

Unions are a good thing, but poisoned with socialistic agendas they strive for too much power and kill the hand that feeds.

Delta warned, Unions did not budge, Delta is out.

Safeway warned, Union budged, 20,000 hold their jobs.

United? Next. Too much union requirement for United to hold a profit ... they lose their jobs.

This is a pivitol point in global economics.

Syd 00:25 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd 00:19 hey you are not syd p.i.s.s off

dc fxq 00:20 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
worcester js 23:53 GMT September 22, 2004
anyone use peter bains pivot points?

Since you have posted this same question several times today with no response let me just say that while I am not familar with this "course" I did Google his name. You can p[robab ly do the same thing if you Google pivot points and do some self study.

Just a friendly suggestion.

Syd 00:19 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Yup, out with socialism. Long live credit !!!!

Eilat Dolphin 00:18 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Hi! I don't see the market breaking ranges this week or even before the next US employment numbers.

I am beginning to suspect that Mister Trichet is manipulating the HOLY CROSS so as to have his "do anything you want, but no volatility!"

FX is getting boring. (OK, we did have yesterday tho...)

May be this planet is flat after all? A pizza...

SanFrancisco TG 00:16 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd & Dolphin - They (socialists) have succeeded economically NEVER and nowhere. Kick them out, tell your people to get on with progress and stop listening to the well put together but having zero common sense propoganda.

Look at Hong Kong - adopting the west, out with socialism. They have the highest conscentration of Mercedes in the world.

The global economy is fine, as long as we protect it (pre-emptively due to recent events) and move it along.

If the EZ will adopt the changes Schroeder realizes now are necessary, Italy may remain in the EU. Without them, it will be over. Russia is going nowhere.

Eilat Dolphin 00:09 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
TG/ It's noce to see that at least someone wants Euroland to get to work...
You!

Have yu ever heard of this law "partage des fruits de l'expansion"? (Sharing the fruits of expansion)

If a company you own or manages is to double its yearly net, about forty five percent of the benefits will have to be shared with its employees as bonuses (if there are over 49 people at work), and once the taxes (a third) are paid.)

So if you own, that leaves you with hardly a dime and a nikel on each extra dollar dollar, but as you have to work your arse off double since you want double profits... you can easily do the math.... the owners of mid size companies got organized to work half time!

Been there, done that, have the tee shirt, but no scars.

Syd 00:02 GMT September 23, 2004 Reply   
TG actually thats a good point you make Re - Roach wants socialists running things

 




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