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Forex Forum Archive for 09/24/2004

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newbie 21:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ok thanks

newbie 21:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ok thanks

Barcelona Tony 21:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Newbie .. 1.8050 in my platform (trading closes 5pm EST for retailers ... fwiw)

newbie 21:06 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
anyone have the close price on the GBP/$? I see trading happened after 4pm EST. but I thought the market closed then?

MEX OSK 21:00 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Hello guys, I need to get hourly info i(historical going back up to 5 years) in major crosses. Anyone know where I can get it?
Thanks
Hello Raven long time no see

Udine Cael 20:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 19:51 GMT / At what level are you short Cable?

houston st 20:39 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

PETE -- nice to see you...hope your trading has been profitable...stay dry this next week and I'll try to do the same...have a great weekend.

wisconsin tim 20:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
thanks ... nice talking to everyone see ya on the flip side.

Heading now to the tapping of the wooden barrel

Rye, NY et 20:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 20:03 GMT September 24, 2004
Thanks for the info and the link on the beer. I don't have PnF on my charts for spot--I do have it with my futures broker (the big one on the front end of the GV site) but.......Have a great Oktoberfest............See you next week.............

Rye, NY et 20:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 20:12 GMT September 24, 2004
Nice talking to you...See you next week............
Have a nice dinner with your girlfriend...(I still call Mrs. et my girlfriend)...Take care...

st. pete islander 20:12 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your input. You may be thinking of SoNo Seaport ... great place for almost all seafood. Overlooks the river and near all the marinas. Went there about once a week. Finding good places to eat was never a problem.

I think it was Raven that mentioned that this was a practise run today and the real one is coming next week. When it does come, it may find more than one with their feet asleep.

Have a great w/e everyone. Time to take my favorite wife to dinner. gl

Rye, NY et 20:06 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 19:51 GMT September 24, 2004
Well, Norwalk's not far. I have several friends up in that area. Some great chowder at place near the docks, as I recall. I used to go up there to use the library at FASB. Anyway...as a partial answer to your GBP question......................Also, Van Revdax, you may take this, as usual, fwiw..........As I have been working the charts since I've been back from the summer, I'm convinced that the breakout will go, as many others do, to the upside---but not far. I'm looking for about EUR/USD 1.2650. Then, and this is quite contrary to, I believe, popular opinion...I'm looking for a sharp deepening of the correction--by about ten cents from the breakout high. Down to around 1.1550. I think Her Majesty will probably, in her own quirky way, join in the fun....And, then the long road up to the upper 1.30s...That is, of course, all IMHO............

wisconsin tim 20:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Can someone point me to a place to get a PnF EUR/USD daily my platform won't do it?

st. pete islander 19:51 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Glad you enjoyed it. I think we used to be neighbors so to speak ... lived in Norwalk, CT for years and wore a groove between there and Newark Airdrome.

That said, I'm sure thinking I need to dump this Gbp short before the weekend .... anyone with insight willing to take a stab at that?

I'm fried and my computer is slowing down. :o)

Rye, NY et 19:48 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Yes, that story made a lot of my family smile this summer. It's a great one. There's nothing funnier than the truth.

st. pete islander 19:40 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Yes .. the doc who took out his wings with a pair of trees.

van revdax 19:38 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
The C9 indicator yesterday was telling something was brewing in Euro and that was why i did that survey. So Euro had a pop-up today but has been unable to sustain its momentum. Could anyone with price analysis forecasting techniques tell me where Euro is going to go over the new few days? A pop in Euro was about all that the C9s were able to tell. TIA

Rye, NY et 19:38 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 19:32 GMT September 24, 2004
HaHaaaaaaaaaa.......Great story...Well, I never drank that much, but that was, indeed, the beer.........BTW, wasn't it you who posted a story about pilot training, emergency training for a doctor?

wisconsin tim 19:37 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
just googling lol and found this link ... i didnt even know we contracted for some of these.

City Brewery

st. pete islander 19:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Tim ... Please tell me that Point beer isn't made there! That should only be made in Stevens Point.

st. pete islander 19:32 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Rye, Ny et, I remember flying into there as a co-pilot for North Central Airlines in the late 60's. About 20 some beer salesmen from there got on and rode down to O'hare with us. Man, they were loaded and the stew was going nuts because they wanted more. All of them had Old Style buttons and T-shirts on .... and one had a set of boxer shorts with the logo ... and he kept showing them to the other passengers. It was a long ride that night. :o)

wisconsin tim 19:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Now it's our own label stuff: La Crosse, Kul, I think we still make old swill ...

One factor is an increase in the amount of City Brewery production for Pabst Brewing Co., which has all of its products made by other companies under contract. The La Crosse brewery makes some of Pabst's Colt 45 malt liquor, Schlitz malt liquor, Old Milwaukee, Special Export, Special Export Light, Champale and McSorley's

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Good jokes guys now this the way to get a long on the FF. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT

Rye, NY et 19:28 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 19:24 GMT September 24, 2004
I think you're right. As I remember, the full name of that beer was Heilemann's Old Style Lager.

st. pete islander 19:24 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Tim .... didn't they have Old Style up there, too?

st. pete islander 19:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Raven ... we call them Q-Tips down here. All you see is the very top of their heads and most are retired folks with white hair that aren't making it on Social Security. Most kids can't get a job at McDonalds because the older folks get there first. And, they don't just drive taxi's. There are a lot of cars that appear to be running by themselves. LOL

BEIRUT MK 19:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
stopped out on eurusd long pos at 1.2240

wisconsin tim 19:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
not much has changed =) La Crosse Brewery now ... heilemans beer was bought by Bud. Sold brewery back to city.

Rye, NY et 19:11 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Great place. I was there thirty years ago on a spring break and have never forgotten it. Great local beer. Heilemann's -- is that right. Great food. Great people.

wisconsin tim 19:04 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
RYE, yes

Va Raven 19:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Remember I visited your city once a few years ago, I was stopped by a cop while I was taking a cab. When I stepped out the cab, the cop said "sorry, I thought you were the one driving the cab from the back seat".
The cab driver was a old man and 4 feet tall.
islander, I am sure it wasn't you, but suggest to make a new law there that under 5 feet tall, no cab license issued!

Rye, NY et 19:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 18:53 GMT September 24, 2004
Are you located in La Crosse, Wisconsin?

Gen dk 19:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Van jv 19:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:50 GMT September 24, 2004
For chartists to ponder:
Long term &euro/$ breakout or trend change "seen" Nov 15-20 Definite triangle formation.
Thanks for hope of move
However,
--this triangle is not final, may be still modofied
--intersection gives a theor. time limit; inreality it can break anytime prior this date on " good reason or push"
imho

Chicago Irish 18:59 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Yup Raven.......like certain options I'm restricted to the one touch type :-)

st. pete islander 18:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Raven .... Sure! I've even taken EC. (That's Eastern Caribbean Dollars ... it's pegged to the US$)

wisconsin tim 18:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
was just gonna pull a PnF chart out to take time away from e/$ and noticed my platform removed point and figure charting ... wth

Va Raven 18:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Yes, martin. It's legal to work at a night club here......

Gold Coast martin 18:51 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Raven...pardon my ignorance but is VA the state of virginia?...g/t

Va Raven 18:47 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Poor Irish, he is out of touch.....

Va Raven 18:43 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander - you still using the euro meter to take fares?

Chicago Irish 18:43 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
15 years married Raven.....that's my answer anyway!

Va Raven 18:41 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Irish, our customer representatives now do one-on-one service, it's digital age, the stuff you were talking about was out of fashion years ago, how long haven't you been a night club?

Gold Coast martin 18:35 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 18:31 GMT September 24, 2004
lol....i am using 4X made hard...my system must be a contrarian one to the ten minute noodle system...where do i sign?,,,,,,,,,,,

st. pete islander 18:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
martin .... being a weekend taxi driver doesn't get in the way at all. I just won't work overtime on Sunday night! :o)

Va Raven 18:32 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
The owner promised me that if I continued to keep the book good and clean, I mght have a chance to be promoted to a full stage dancer......

wisconsin tim 18:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
GC didn't you know it only takes 10 minutes a day to make 4x easy

Gold Coast martin 18:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
How can you guys manage another job apart from forex?...

Va Raven 18:29 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Not as a dancer, but a bookkeeper.

Chicago Irish 18:29 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Raven:That bump and grind routine still popular ?

wisconsin tim 18:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
yeah ... la crosse just got a Hooters and I was gonna apply for night/asst manager ... my wife put the cabash on that idea

Va Raven 18:25 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Friday means (to me) ready to change the work place - I work in a local night club during the weekends.

wisconsin tim 18:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
go VIKES =)

Chicago Irish 18:19 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Tim: Yup....The hunchback of Not Worth a D A M N :-)

Livingston nh 18:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 17:30 GMT September 24, 2004
back from lunch
Friday = Res ipsa loquitor

- enjoy the weekend, folks

wisconsin tim 18:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Could also be a deformed SHS as well =) on the weekly

wisconsin tim 18:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
quito,
looking at the weekly ... makes you wonder if the "breakout" was really a breakout (if you consider breakout to be a close above line).

Weekly EURUSD chart

btw closed eur/gbp shorts

Va Raven 18:00 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
quito - Can I comment on that?

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:58 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
martin & Dolphin, what do you think about this?

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Feel free to yahoo me about this triangle.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:50 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
For chartists to ponder:
Long term &euro/$ breakout or trend change "seen" Nov 15-20 Definite triangle formation. Here's why:
Draw a support line from 11/6/03 to 9/3/04 and resistance line from 2/17/04 to 9/21/04, and see a future juncture of those two lines around Nov 15 '04.
What think? This goes along with some other posts I've seen here saying about the same thing...Nov15 or "before Christmas" for a trend change (up) for this pair. Comments welcome!!
Like most of us, part of me is chartist, part fundamentalist, part "seat of pants" trader and I love to game with the three.

Gold Coast martin 17:40 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
EILAT...Good weekend and watch out for usd shark nets....still set in shallow water.......g/t

Eilat Dolphin 17:37 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Possie/bly right, but the E/$ 4H chart was just too tempting on the long side, so I just dipped in a fin.

BTW I doubt that Jeanne will hit Florida or a bit higher north, but I am just an amateur and since those who know say so...

We'll see. Don't get flooded, nor drive too fast.
Happy WE!

Va Raven 17:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
NH - what did you mean by "BUT it is Friday"?

Livingston nh 16:55 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Agree GEP - 1.2225 level (Weds lo) is a key lvl - following Fed moves in Jne and Aug talk of a pause allowed EUR rallies but seems folks may be getting the 'no pause' message from the Fed a bit quicker this time after FOMC minutes // we also have an outside day working on the EUR -- BUT it is Friday

hk ab 16:51 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
If eur/gbp breaks .68 and close below it. gbp might fly next week.

My bet is that I will receive a lot of GBP bullish news-flood next week. Off screen, GL (especially to those holding yen & yen crosses over weekend).

hk ab 16:49 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
oops... so many things happened tonight?
With Ldn help in crying wolf, the cable reached 1.8080 my exit point. (Not bother to mention here anymore with some annoying posts, loss is loss it's ok 'cos the previous longs make enough pips to cover it now.)

I mentioned to sp last night that, seem many friends (esp. fishes) in gvi forget G7 mtg is in the menu.....

Interested to short a little dlr/jpy here 110.80. with some more at 111.25 later.

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
I don't think many of us are expecting it but a breakout move by USD bulls before end of day today can't be ruled out IMO.

SPb Mike 16:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
PAR 16:19//
Could u elaborate pls?

SanFrancisco TG 16:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm .. Bartiromo comes on CNBC with the innocent/shy voice about a special on mid-west cattle ranchers angry over "cowboy outsourcing", yet yesterday Bush was noted in Dow Jones as pushing Japan (which agreed in principle) to drop restrictions on US beef imports.

But then both are true to an extent.

I will lean toward the DJ and call it a US market positive.

PAR 16:19 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
GBP strong because of take over rumors. Possible take over target ,all FTSE companies as every friday.

Gen dk 16:06 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 16:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

OK, I Buy EUR/$ at 1.2260 with STP 1.2225, T/P 1.2295. Also I Buy GBP at 1.8035 with STP 1.8005, T/P 1.8070. All in just small size while momentum in couple minutes grow up and GBPJPY, EURJPY take a road with $/JPY in stable price.
GL for the next round everyone!

Gen dk 15:59 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

paris jb 15:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
my sell euro order at 12380 still waiting lol

usualy when euro break 12350 it should at least 12390,

but seems big sharks prefered the bull trap scenario and sold it big at 12365

in fact the NO FOLLOW Through is one of the most reliable indicator and one should tried the short when euro pulled back below 12350,

"heureusement" i didnt take the long and i only missed the short

GER ad 15:51 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
CAD very strong and AUD also strong relative to EUR, maybe is time to buy some EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD for next week.

Sydney Alimin 15:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ok, one final look at euro, wow...speechless :) well done again to viies...fantastic calls this week

looks like aussie is next heading south too, it will be sent to tasmania :)...martin, need you to push it a bit more off the cliff :)

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
XON 1.2249 I mean LOL

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
XON...1,2749 I would imagine first, JUST KIDDING!!! I would expect action to be limited short to the 1.2230 area

Budapest Daniel 15:34 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
LOL @ this market...

NY GG 15:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
I think that could be it with the Euro correction today. Wished I had held on for the extra 30pips, but hey you can't get them all! Still got my cable shorts in play. But I think a great play at this time is the aussie. 30 pips are there on the table for today at .7100

Gothenburg XON 15:32 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
I wonder where it will go if it breaks through 1,2250 (EUR/USD)...

Ldn Cashman 15:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Unlucky mate. Friday's are becoming more and more unplayable. It's a stopfest for the big guys. They must have done well clearing out both sides today.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 15:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
I dont think this is a market revers while on 30min/hourly chart tell that the momentum going lower on downside price in GBP and EURO. It could be a tricky movements.
I have taken out all of my profit for GBP at 1.8046 and EUR at 1.2350 as my T/P. Probably I would put a little bit Long postition for EUR and GBP again later if clear, otherwise I dont want to trade again untill next mondayt, so I can take more refresh with my wife and kids to Highland while the 7 masketeers work so hard in Dublin to make a pressure for china.

taipei jim 15:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Thx for all u guys replied. Again I am swept out from my eur long position. Fail to profit taking with oda at 1.2380. What a bad day..................

)toronto Dr Unken Katt 15:24 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
http://www.cjbengineering.com/fx/perform1.htm

you people familiar with the

NN predictions ??

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Today...we got NHRA drag racing event in Dallas, Will be at that all weekend.

Still long usd/cad and short Aussie

Ldn Cashman 15:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
The low traded on EBS at 45

Tor Pumpkin 15:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
1.2245 was EBS low in EURUSD.

Antwerp Tom 15:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Jim, low offer 1.2249 , low bid 1.2246 15:13 GMT GL GT

BGD PS 15:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
taipei jim 15:16 GMT September 24, 2004

1.2245

Budapest Daniel 15:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
1.2243

taipei jim 15:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
can anybody show me the low of eur just now pls. thx vm.

Calabash TarHeel 15:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Well, time to start the weekend. Hope everyone has a great one.
Good Luck and Happy Trades.

Dallas GEP 15:13 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Marc, your day is made...eur/gbp below .6800 friend

Antwerp Tom 15:12 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
B747 14H56 don't know, stuck with € longs (average 1.2285) and was thinking this morning to exit @ 1.2315 but Mr Greed didn't let me, then missed the afternoon action (1.2360), was doing other things (yom tov related), but maybe the new year will bring some much awaited peace and good trades thereafter...GL GT

Dallas GEP 15:11 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
OK....Buying on continuations in my view is MUCH more dangerous than reversals. Look at EUR/USD there were MANY that bought eur/usd on break of 1.2350......and that was Hurtfull. The results IMO more often than not is that you wind up buying NEAR the high or selling near the LOW. The problem is there are MANY more false breaks than what we had in the past and because of the thinness in the market DATA can create wild swings,

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 15:09 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ireland/Brazil Marcelo,

Jakarta is been very happy with our last general election and we could have a new precident.
other things are doing pretty well here. Thanks!

Pecs Andras 15:09 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Time to see how strong this 2250/55 that has been holding EUR for 2 days

GOES B747 15:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Muzza, also very SERIOUS san's talking about SONY and SAMSUNG going together; JAPAN, S-KOREA & CHINA will have to carry most of US deficit.

the process started with USSR falling apart will finalize when the three a.m. countries (with US green light) will take financial care of the oil producing countries within the Asean CIS countries.

I am off now !!!

all the best !!!

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 15:06 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
The loonie has reason to crow,amp;quot; observes Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns. The Canadian dollar is on a roll, aided by BOC tightening and uncertainty about how far and how fast the Fed will raise rates, she says. amp;quot;Meantime the growth cap between the US and Canada has vanished, oil prices remain lofty, and the US current account deficit continues to deepen- all bullish for the loonie against the greenback,amp;quot; Cooper adds. Dollar-Canada holds presently near C$1.2748, not that far from the yearamp;apos;s lows near C$1.2680 seen in January

Gen dk 15:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 15:04 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ireland/Brazil,

I pray for u, indeed!
My opinion abt the trading in this market is: If we win sometimes it doesn't mean paying for our las lost. Also if we lost (even huge), it doesn't take our last profit.
So that's why we must control our emotion and keep a breath slowly for sometime if we got loss.
Now, I suggest u to take a rest for awhile, drink water (or capuchino, LOL). I m sure u can catch a good and clear viewing abt the price movements later.

GL, buddy!

Calabash TarHeel 15:00 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:33 GMT September 24, 2004
No argument on the Cad here. I suppose everyone has their own stuff and mine says a clean break of 1.2730 takes it well below years low. That said, if 1.2730 does hold today, think you have a shot at 1.2790/ 1.28 today or Mon. Imvho.
Good Luck

Ireland/Brazil Marcelo 14:57 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi Wibawa,

Let's see mate...the market is prompting a sudden raise of EUR/USD. I had a huge loss this afternoon, but thankfully recovered every single penny....WITH PROFIT !
How's things in Jakarta?
Dublin, is censored cold and wind righ now!

Keep it real mate!


------------------------------------------------------------
EXCHANGE RATES CHANGE !

GOES B747 14:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
also the tsom is applicable; u 2 sir !!!
btw; we are shchnim and I hope you had better trading day than me !!!

GMAR CHATIMA TOVA AND TSOM KAL !!!

Antwerp Tom 14:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
B747 applicable, gmar chatima tova to you too and all the others (falafelsellers, Dolphin, etc.) tsom kal if applicable

wisconsin tim 14:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
well not done yet =)
AUD.USD ... after that push up looks like we will get that reversal candle I asked with my chart last night . might be good sell sunday/monday on the break of todays low

Sydney Alimin 14:51 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 14:46 GMT September 24, 2004

yes it is very true mate, i just feel sorry for those who bought at 1.2360 thinking a break of 1.2350 only to find it tanking almost 100 pips now, must be feeling extremely nervous over the weekend...have a good weekend, c u next week

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 14:49 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone!

How's ur day? I wish u are doing great.
We are waiting for the result of the 7 masketeers group this weekend at dublin. Will the impact same for sky-rocketing Euro, GBP, AUD and other ccy againist dollar, or we could see another acrobatics from US Govt in pressuring China for the renmimbi revaluation as fast as they want.
Hmmm... will see soon, untill then pls keep drink a cup of capuchino...

Que sera sera, whatever will be..will be! LOL

Ireland/Brazil Marcelo 14:48 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD to buy today.....It'll be a rip off !
Believe.
Any comments.....




-----------------------------------------------------------
Exchange rates change....

Gold Coast martin 14:48 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
..You are correct PECS....

Pecs Andras 14:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
usa 14:43 GMT September 24, 2004
It is always good to watch that cross especially when you want to trade cable..
GL

GOES B747 14:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
thanks to everybody for posting the info. I asked,
have nice weekend; and gmar chatima tova when applicable.

peace to all

Calabash TarHeel 14:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 14:42 GMT September 24, 2004

Fwiw: If the Euro bulls can't hold 1.2290 today, bad times ahead. Imvho.
gl,gt

usa 14:43 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
thanks london and pecs.... I never put 2 and 2 together :)

Pecs Andras 14:43 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Martin
If kiwi should tank that much by next week, then aussie should also be down at around the low 70, right?

Calabash TarHeel 14:43 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 14:38 GMT September 24, 2004
Yep, Caught a good fill on the spike this morning.
Happy Trades

Sydney Alimin 14:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
for those who longed euro, just be careful, if it doesn't bounce to 1.23 by NY close, it could be in trouble next week, look at those exhaustive bars in daily and 4-hr chart
i am out of here...see you all next week...have a nice w/e

Gen dk 14:38 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gold Coast martin 14:38 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
...time for the kiwi to shed some feathers....good short at the moment with daily target 6595....or great position trade....weekly target 6455...g/t

Budapest Daniel 14:37 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Andras, I've stopped myself out at 1.7152, not a big loss but at least I've gained 28 pips on eur/usd. I don't plan on entering into a short position with aussie, seems to be very stubborn these two days...

Pecs Andras 14:36 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ML
R U still around? You seem to be getting your bonus for the weekend! Look at EUR/GBP!
GL

dc fxq 14:35 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Yes 110.28

Pecs Andras 14:34 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Yea mate, on my platform you would have missed it by 3 pips
Sorry :-(
(censored)

Dallas GEP 14:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
On Daily Charts 1.2708 is double bottom on USD/CAD. JAn 4th year's LOW on the DAILY CLOSE. LOW for year 1.2679 for the year's low.

Dublin Flip 14:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ib sorry I miss-read. I know realise you asked whether the Fed's policy is driven by the foreign investors i.e. the dollar???

Very little. Apart from a six month move below 100 and a 9mth move above 130 during teh asian currency cris, $jpy has pretty much been 100/130 for almost fifteen years. Apart from a couple of years thanks to the dotcom bubble and Eur$ float concerns, Euro$ has traded 1.00/1.40 for almost twenty years. FX dealers like to get excited about currency moves but really central bankers are much less impluslive or reactionary. See ECB and Fed reactions during last year's media beat-up dollar crisis. Some crisis when the dollar is only back at multi year averages after undwinding a short-lived three year dollar boom.

Pecs Andras 14:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Dani
How about aussie?
A bailed out at breakeven adn got in again at 62

GOES B747 14:32 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
it looks I missed nice profit @ 110.30 by 2pips; what a day!!!

gt

GOES B747 14:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
you mean 110.28, right?
on which platform?

gt

Pecs Andras 14:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
So I guess you just nmissed it by 2 or 3 pips, depending on your spread

Budapest Daniel 14:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Beirut, you're still hoping that it'll reach 1.3050 again?

FALLS PB 14:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
110.30 bid on censored

dc fxq 14:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
oops misread

110.89
109.33

o a n d a

110.89
109.29

Pecs Andras 14:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
B747
On my platform it was 110.28/110.86

BEIRUT MK 14:29 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
add one more eurusd at 1.2281 target 1.2350

GOES B747 14:29 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
sorry, it was 110.30 (limit)...should this price executed??

tia

GOES B747 14:28 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
FALLS PB 14:26 GMT September 24, 2004

110.30 // is it BID or ASK?
I had t/p @ 110.33 (limit); should it be executed or not?

tia & gt

dc fxq 14:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
another has

200.19
198.47

on another

GOES B747 14:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
FALLS PB 14:26 GMT September 24, 2004

which plaform?

tia

GOES B747 14:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
thanks dc, but I need USD/JPY

tia

FALLS PB 14:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:21 GMT September 24, 2004
USD/JPY: may someone post high/low for today?

110.86 - 110.30

... ... 14:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
...

dc fxq 14:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:21

200.23
198.43

but just a platform range not EBS

Calabash TarHeel 14:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:10 GMT September 24, 2004
Fwiw: In my scheme of things 1.2730 is a key level for $/cad. If that breaks, I don't know, could go below ML's call. Imho.
Good Luck

BEIRUT MK 14:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
stop at 1.2240

GOES B747 14:21 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY: may someone post high/low for today?

tia

GOES B747 14:21 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY: may someone posy high/low for today?

tia

BEIRUT MK 14:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
long eurusd at 1.2290 fr 1.2350 again.

NY GG 14:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Have gone short Cable 1.8047 target 1.80 Closed Euro shorts for 65pips

ICT ML 14:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
$Yen could be trying to breakout here.... if it gets loose I have a 111.75 flag pole target in mind for this move from 109.50

Have to see how it goes.

Dublin Flip 14:19 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ib, while I can see your point about foreign investment at the moment it's a non starter. Treasuries have been bid for the past few months recovering back to March NFP levels. Meaning there isn't a problem finding buyers/funders currently. Sure if the dollar was being tanked and bonds couldn't find a home there may be a problem and higher intrest rates may well help attract suitors but that just isn't the case currently.
The biggest benefactor of low intrest rates is the US government. They are the biggest debtor so I don't think they are complaining that they can issue much cheaper than before. Sure the Fed would probably prefer to not have -ve real intrest rates but with 10years around 4% that implies that inflation has peaked or peaking and therefore inflation and intrest are coming together but from both sides. (Inflation lower and Intrest rates higher).
Believe me, I'd say the Fed would be happy to have O/N intrest rates above 4% as that would be a sign of a truely repaired economy but that will only happen if jopbs are growing at 400k per month, GDP is above 5% and stock market is again making new highs.

london cam 14:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
usa 14:11 GMT September 24, 2004
why is the GBP holding up compared to the EUR vs. the dollar?

Take a look at EURGBP this should answer your question imho

Pecs Andras 14:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
OK
Let's see those stops below 2280

Pecs Andras 14:14 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
usa 14:11 GMT September 24, 2004
Look at the EUR/GBP rate
That is the only reason now

usa 14:11 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
why is the GBP holding up compared to the EUR vs. the dollar?

Dallas GEP 14:10 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
well USD/CAD broke 1.2760 support...It is now at support at 1.2720/25 and my view is that will hold at least for today and we will get some retracement back long. If not then 1.2700 support could be tested. Longs probably will be limited to the 1.2790/95 area for today IF longs come into play.

Paris ib 14:09 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
U too San Francisco.

Paris ib 14:07 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Dublin. Again agreed. The question is how much pressure does the U.S. external funding requirement exert on policy makers? I would say that it exerts quite a lot of pressure and means that maintaining confidence in the USD is essential. No-one can afford to scare off the foreign investors. In addition, the Fed pretty much has to get real rates above zero just from a prudential point of view, though if the economy dives inflation may too. An economy with any life at all comes with positive real rates. Add up both factors and rates are likely to go considerably above what the market has currently factored in.

dc fxq 14:02 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Existing homes 6.52M - 6.65M expected

Gen dk 14:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 13:59 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
hello everybody.
gold have touched arround 407.20. be carefull maybe buyers at this level..ideally get second top at 411.90 again.
maybe from here now will move up fast (high probability)..

KL KL 13:58 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
cover audusd .7163 out .7143 +20 pips... longing later

SanFrancisco TG 13:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Muchos gracias Flip/IB. Enjoy your weekends.

ICT ML 13:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Andras...LOL...maybe the goose has learnt some manners finally.....I have to say that a year ago I couldn't trade it to save my rear end. This year its been very compliant for me for some reason....go figure.

Now if Eur-Gbp will just break under .6800 again I am in heaven for the week.

Pecs Andras 13:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
the pound is being kept up by heavy EUR/GBP but we are close to a support, so soon it ahsould also tank

Pecs Andras 13:51 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ML
Then you know something many people do not, inlcuding myself. The last time I lost on it I did some research and I found somewhere that CAD is the ccy that follows trendlines, observes res/supp levels, fibos atc the LEAST of all.
But if you can tame it, great and GL :-)

ICT ML 13:47 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Andras.....of all the pairs, $CAD has been giving the best daily/weekly tech signals for the past 6 months IMHO.....its traditional tech targets like channel tops, bottoms.....and now a potential dbl bottom as target that has just been begging to be tested for the past month. If it doesn;t bounce out of 1.2675 hard its on the 1.1600>>>1.1300 express this fall.

I'm covering there and selling a strong break next week or buying a bounce to sell higher.

nyc jk 13:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
sounds much funner than fx trading, Tim. have a good w/e

Pecs Andras 13:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
CAD is really crazy
I promised myself several weeks ago not to touch it again, after several losses.
I just can't figure out this thing

wisconsin tim 13:41 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
well i'm out for our annual Oktoberfest here in La Crosse. Only in Wisconsin can you go at 6:30 AM to the tapping of the golden can, followed at 11:00 AM with the tapping of the golden keg and if you are still awake by 4:00 PM you can finish your day with the tapping for the wooden barrel.

Still short E/G from yesterday. E/$ from yesterday got stopped. Play safe, Play nice.

gt/gw all

Dublin Flip 13:40 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
oops The Fed aren't going to....

Tg I agree with your first paragraph BTW.

Dublin Flip 13:38 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
The Fed are going to blindly raise rates until it reaches some theoretical core CPI number. These guys aren't robots and don't operate in a vacumn. They balance risks. Having an economy @ 1% o/n cash rate meant if any shock came along it's was at risk. Sure they'd like to have O/n cash 2.5/3.5 but they aren't going to slow the economy just to make some intrest rate target. The Fed listen to the market. If 10year bonds are 4% (i.e down from 4.8% in three months) the Fed are going to notice that inflation expectations have diminished. Greenspan's prefered inflation indictaor, the PCE Deflator (from GDP) has decellerated since the start of the year as well. The Fed balance risks. The Oil price is not going to come down because the Fed is raising rates and nor do they expect it to.
The Fed have left rates low for a reason - to help stimulate growth. They may talk tough but ultimately their bark will be proved worse than their bite. If they raise rates to 3.5% what's your price fannie mae???-LOL

NY GG 13:34 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Well, I hope you got in at 1.2360 and have ridden that wild beast to 1.23. Watch out now, anything could happen at this point. I favor a further sell off to 1.2250 and some but the 4hour ascending triangle might not allow for that. Probably 1.2265 is the best one can hope for.

Paris ib 13:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
San Francisco. I agree they have done a good job. A great job in fact.

Calcutta Vikram 13:28 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, that should have been "gone Long accordingly"

Gen dk 13:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SanFrancisco TG 13:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
At some point Asia will slow buying US debt and that puts pressure on the USD, which in turn leads to further downward adjustment for the $, which in turn stimulates re-balancing of trade conditions and supports US economic gains.

IB - Think positive, we've all been watching the cycle for 3 years and its been very supportive. The FED and team are doing a whopper of a job.

Calcutta Vikram 13:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Re: wisconsin tim 13:04 GMT September 24, 2004

Hi Tim. I'm looking at the same Trendline and Moving Average Support that are shown in your chart. And have gone accorrdingly. To my eye, the drop over the last couple of days (from near 0.6865 or so) was legitimate profit-taking and possibly we may now move higher. Lessee. I quit at 0.6800, of course.

Paris ib 13:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Points taken. But the question really isn't simple. For now rising rates could continue to support the USD. They will also kill the U.S. consumer (but then that really is not our concern). There are vulnerabilities though, and what I am wondering is can the FED pull it off and keep offshore confidence in the USD steady. For now, I think so...... but that doesn't mean I underestimate the risks.

SanFrancisco TG 13:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Rising US rates will also curtail both government and consumer debt, offsetting the impact of tighter borrowing for business and less "deficit" for both sectors. Its all just money management. US economy is fine.

Paris ib 13:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Well there you have it. Is the U.S. economy a juggernaught which is steaming along, continually attracting enough foreign capital to fund its Federal Govt. deficit and military exploits thanks to rising (5% anyone?) interest rates

or

is it an accident waiting to happen? An economy which is sucking in money from offshore so that it can censored it up against the wall in Iraq.

Or is it both? For how long will the money keep coming in? Depends really...... if the Japanese can't find anything more interesting to do with it and rates of return are pathetic globally and nothing terrible happens to offshore confidence in the USD, then this can continue. When does the music stop? I have NO IDEA.

dc fxq 13:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Paris ib 13:02 GMT September 24, 2004

you can argue however you wish on the topic of old vs look ahead data but your position that US data is bad HAS to be mirroed by similar comments for UK and EZ data. We are seeing any red hot numbers coming from there or Japan either so it is a wash insofar a fx priving is concerned.

nyc sa 13:11 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
could someone please post the German IFO sentiment numbers for the past 6 months ? thnx

Calabash TarHeel 13:10 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Paris ib 13:02 GMT September 24, 2004
Simple enough then, just sell USD.
gl,gt

KL KL 13:09 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
short audusd .7163...sl 15 above...let it drop ...i hope

Dallas GEP 13:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
For those who remember MOF interventions, this 110.30 line on USD/JPY very much looks like to me a situation where a line was drawn in the sand (don't forget it can be moved) and it is being HEAVILY defended. A long from 110.35 if seen (bid) with stop @ 110.20 would be VERY good in my view IF we see it again.

Pecs Andras 13:06 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
out of cable long with small pips
no idea what is going to happen later

Pecs Andras 13:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Huge sellers are reported lining up between 2370 and 2400
They can easily cap EUR even on a a crazy Friday

SanFrancisco TG 13:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
However receipts have increased in a virtual straight line for 2 years, the USD remains in a weakened valuation which offsetts the deficit concerns and any strains on trade pressures or budget pressures, economy is robust in comparison to the Eurozone. Doesnt sound like a problem in the big picture to me.

wisconsin tim 13:04 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
calcutta, might have seen top for now in eur/gbp?

EURGBP Chart

Paris ib 13:02 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Livingston. GDP is OLD DATA. Who really cares what happened in the second quarter or even the third. What we really care about and what the Market is worried about is what is going to happen in the Fourth quarter. And what do we have? We have leading indicators which look pretty ordinary. Interest rates which have risen and are continuing to rise, oil prices which have gone up (and they are still a long, long way from 30-35 dollars a barrel), the cost of the IRAQI war, employment growth which has been unimpressive to say the least and what we have is the makings of an ugly crunch in consumer spending which has been the cornerstone of US growth for years now. And today's data (in case you missed it) was not good. The data is starting to look very disappointing.

dc fxq 13:00 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 12:42 GMT September 24, 2004

same news wire reporting a US name had bought from 1.2290 earlier through 1.2330 running stops which caught models "offside" causing a scramble to cover short EURUSD possies. FWIW

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 12:58 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold fall like stone. Seems USD not soft yet IMO

Gen dk 12:58 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 12:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Calcutta Vikram 12:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP looks like a decent Long for 0.69+ with Stop at 0.68 or below

Pecs Andras 12:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 12:54 GMT September 24, 2004
Right!
Especially as opposed to "great" EZ growth which has been below 1% for the last 3 years

wisconsin tim 12:55 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
thinking of a gbp/yen short ~200 area stops above 200.60 but still looks pretty strong ... GBPYEN chart

Any other view appreciated

Dallas GEP 12:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Got some CAD long from 1.2750 now off order

Livingston nh 12:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Paris ib - what's wrong w/ 3% growth? Ugly economic data?

NY GG 12:47 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
That is for the Euro stop at 1.2380 target 1.23

Paris ib 12:47 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Fed minutes released yesterday gave a pretty good indication that the Fed is nowhere near finished tightening. Note the mention of the current level of inflation (2.7%) which means that rates have to go somewhere above that level. The question now is will the Fed's policy of slow and steady quarter point rises be ENOUGH to prevent a crisis of confidence in the USD and in U.S. financial markets. Right now both are very, very vulnerable. It could well be a case of too little WAY TOO LATE for both the dollar and hence for U.S. markets........ Ugly economic data is not going to be enough to stop the Fed and they are the only ones standing between the USD and a wall of selling right now......

NY GG 12:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
This spike is not real. A stop of 20 pips above this spike will reward a reversal play. GTs

Gen dk 12:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc fxq 12:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
one news wire saying the spikes in EUR and GBP vs USD can't be explained by data, probably the momentum playing model funds at work.

Gothenburg XON 12:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
-What can I say, got one right afterall....

Budapest Daniel 12:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
28 tick plus on eur/usd... but 10 tick minus on aud/usd :(

Pecs Andras 12:40 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Usual Friday frenzy
I was sure that the market will find ANY news good to selll the dollar
But I am in with cable long at 8016

Livingston nh 12:37 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Dur Goods Orders for July seem to be revised up to 1.8% from 1% so the -0.5% for August is in line w/ -0.3% expectation // also all other parts of the release were still positive (inventories, shipments and unfilled orders) // we may get a snapback

Sin Sam 12:35 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
US aug Transportation Goods Orders fall 6.8%
US Aug Core Capital Goods Orders Fall 0.5%
US Aug Durable Goods Shipments Up 1.7%
U.S Aug Ex-Transportation Orders Up 2.3%
US Aug Durable Goods Orders Fall 0.5%

Cheers :)

London HC 12:34 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Is there any other news out besides durable goods? usd is getting tanked.

Pecs Andras 12:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ex transp it is +2.3%

dc fxq 12:33 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
mostly aircraft orders/parts causing headline number decline, ex-trans. +2.3% vs previous flat.

dc fxq 12:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
DGO -0.5%, in line

SanFrancisco TG 12:24 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
$chf floor is 1.2525 for today in my eyes and we may not even see that.

Side note, formula one racing is about to hit China, absolutely wonderful for Chinese. Sign of economic things to come.

nyc jk 12:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
lol Andras, yeah a few diamonds in the rough, JB being one of them. cheers

Dallas MD 12:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
You're right! LOL

Pecs Andras 12:17 GMT September 24, 2004
jk
Maybe it is not that bad a place for newcomers after all
LOL

Pecs Andras 12:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
jk
Maybe it is not that bad a place for newcomers after all
LOL

Dallas MD 12:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Reversed!
Dallas MD 12:11 GMT September 24, 2004
Long GBP/USD @ 1.8020 TP 1.8045 Stop 1.8007
Moving through resistance level

Dallas MD 12:11 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Long GBP/USD @ 1.8020 TP 1.8045 Stop 1.8007
Moving through resistance level

nyc jk 12:11 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
yeah, good comments JB. there are some sensible people here after all! gl

melbourne farmacia 12:09 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B - 2nd that.. GT

Dallas MD 12:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
It's more sane than most traders.

Gothenburg XON 12:05 GMT September 24, 2004
Dallas MD 12:03 GMT September 24, 2004

-Yes, is it not crazy? :-)

Gothenburg XON 12:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD 12:03 GMT September 24, 2004

-Yes, is it not crazy? :-)

Dallas MD 12:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
2:1 Risk Reward?

Gothenburg XON 12:00 GMT September 24, 2004
NYC NYC 11:53 GMT September 24, 2004

My stops are allways set @ half the target gains.
"Rationale" is however difficult to explain in words, it's
a combination of what I see in my charts and gut-feeling.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 11:58 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Lo kosher pork felafel... Yom Kipur hayom ;))
gl gt

Gold Coast martin 11:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 11:53 GMT September 24, 2004
LOL...the kosher pork felafel salesman has emerged......good trades AC.....G/T

wellington am 11:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Based on Greenspan's "significant" comment, and a pennant forming in the weekly DXY.

wellington am 11:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
short euro ~1.2300. Target 1.17. LOL. (:

NYC NYC 11:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gothenburg - it would be useful if you also included your stop and any rationale for the trade.

Haifa ac 11:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 11:46 GMT September 24, 2004
Quick observation IMO there are far to many inflated ego's on this side of the Forum. //
That is because Jay is too cheap to supply us with inflated dolls.

Gothenburg XON 11:50 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Longed EUR/USD, Target 1,2346
and
Shorted USD/JPY, Target 110,10

Global-View 11:50 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
J.B. Thanks for your constructive comments.

U.K. J.B. 11:48 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
GVI-John

Sorry had already sent before your post

U.K. J.B. 11:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Quick observation IMO there are far to many inflated ego's on this side of the Forum. Do we really need a running commentary regarding one's trading. I think max. one should post is about 5 times a day and that is it. I mentioned before about quality not quantity. Are we really interested in someone making 10 pips on a trade ?? when we have seen a 150 pip move. The less often you post the more value you have when you do post. It shows some thought has gone into your work rather than tossing a coin. I myself used to post regulary about 3-5 times a day.

IMHO- Nice W/E

Global-View 11:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
To repeat:

GVI john 11:16 GMT September 24, 2004
Please, Lets get back to the markets

paris jb 11:34 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
hi traders,

well this Raden issue is really useless, i dunno what is the point to discuss who is with rade and who is against him,

I think we should all cooperate to make money by :

posting useful link and report about forex

posting insiders information

posting our technical vue and calls
etc....


Raden and all the others traders who post their vue r welcome

tecnical disscution about their post are welcome tooooooo

but personal attack and critical r useless and boooooooring

so plz evryone let us finish with this

GL GT

boston mpd004 11:25 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
NYC// I understand that and I think you're right also. It could come down some

gold coast miko 11:24 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
indonesia-solo Raden mas. from what i can tell you post are populaur for many traders ,myself included. I find that you advise is very usefull and accurate, and I have made alot of profitable trades from your advice. However I just dont rely on you post alone, I use in in conjunction with other trading tools. And NOBODY can get the forex market right all of the time. if you can, you would have more money the Bill Gates.
so in my opinion I think you should stay and stick up the rest of the arogant bastards.

NYC 11:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Boston. it is the frequency of his postings that make him appear as if he is spamming the forum.

boston mpd004 11:21 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
But even if he's not the real Raden, the feelings the same. I also think it's sad that someone is asked to leave for his views on the market. What's next? Someone says that they are going long or short and they are asked to leave because someone had a differant idea on wether long or short? Just my two cents.

Budapest Daniel 11:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
thanks Jay

GVI Jay 11:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Daniel, you are correct and we are taking action on it.

GVI john 11:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Please, Lets get back to the markets

Budapest Daniel 11:14 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
i think you're not the real Raden cos' he is away on the yanhoo messenger... if you're the real one, send me a message if you CAN

GVI john 11:12 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels
eur/$ 1.2300… $/yen 110.45
DJIA +5… 10-yr 4.02, -1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
Dealers are unlikely to have high hopes for the final trading session of the week. Overseas participants have been waiting for U.S. data for inspiration. The open sees August Durable Goods Orders. A decline of -0.4% is seen by the street, after +1.6% in July. August Existing Home Sales are expected to fall modestly for a second consecutive month. In Japan, an unexpected decline in the tertiary activity index, a measure of the service sector, saw the Nikkei tumble and JGB prices spike higher. $/yen was unperturbed with the fiscal half-yearend at hand. In Europe there is a major scandal brewing about the accounting for the Greek budget deficit. It seems the government shortfall was significantly above the level required for entry into the euro. How this issue is resolved could impact the credibility of the common currency. This issue bears watching. Also there were reports late Thursday that some sort of terrorist activity could be in the works to disrupt the U.S. election on November. We are unaware of any market response to this story. European bourses are steady to lower. Bund and gilt prices have slipped slightly pushing yields up 1-2bps. Treasury prices are a tough higher as the 10-yr pivots the 4.0% line. The early call for stocks is for a steady open and November Crude is holding above the $48.00 line.

German August import prices soared by +0.9% mo/mo, largely due to oil. They were +2.5% yr/yr. Street estimates had been for increases of +0.7%, +2.3%. The August ex-oil increases were +0.2% and +0.5%. Export prices were +0.3% and +1.1% yr/yr. The difference in import and export prices illustrates the squeeze on German manufacturers and do not bode well for a robust economic rebound. German State Cost of Living data continue to be released. The North Rhine Westphalia index fell -0.1%, +1.6% yr/yr, and Bavaria reported -0.3% mo/mo and +2.1% for September. Also, Baden-Wurttemberg fell -0.4%, +1.9% Italian Industrial Sales increased +0.7% in July, but were still down -1.8% yr/yr. Industrial Orders advanced +2.3% mo/mo and were up +0.7% yr/yr. In the U.K., additional signs of a slowing of home prices surfaced in the September Hometrack survey. It said that the average U.K. home price fell -0.3% in the month. This brought its yr/yr rise to +3.5%. It said that rising interest rates and reduced consumer confidence in rising house prices have taken their toll.

The Japanese Tertiary Activity Index fell in July by -0.8%. An increase of +0.2% had been forecasted by the street. This closely watched index measures service industry activity. The all-industry index, which includes industrial production and construction, declined -0.6%. The tertiary index was up 3% on a year/year basis. 10-yr JGB prices rose sharply on the news with the benchmark 10-yr maturity falling to 1.41%, -6bps. Also the Nikkei finally tumbled through critical support at the 11,000 level to close the week at 10,905, -124pts or -1.1%. Investors are very concerned not only about the impact of rising oil prices directly on the Japanese economy, but also their indirect impact on global demand. The week ahead will August industrial output and the fiscal half-yearend on September 30. Odds are by now that books are set up for the half-year end. Then the Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan survey will be released on October 1. The headline Tankan diffusion index is seen as having fallen to +17 from +22.

Budapest Daniel 11:11 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
btw does anyone know if today's US announcements will have significant effects on the eur/usd pair today?

Budapest Daniel 11:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
i meant i lowered it a few minutes ago... i want to avoid further losses which dominate from yesterday... :(

Pecs Andras 11:07 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Daniel
Want to see if 7080 can break. If it bounces strong, I will bail out, if not, I'll let it run into the weekend

Budapest Daniel 11:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
my stop is at break even either.... which is your target point?

Pecs Andras 11:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Daniel
I am short from 7141 from yesterday
I will lower the stop to breakeven if aussie can break the figure

Calcutta Vikram 11:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading near 1.2300, it seems Euro Sellers are not too keen on pushing it down immediately. BUT, beware the second layer of Resistances between 1.2326-50. Break thereof needed to clear the path to 1.2400-2450 and maybe 1.2500. Decent Support for the moment at 1.2265-60. The market might keep testing the upside while this Support holds, a process that might keep on for the rest of the day. If the Support breaks, then a fall to 1.2200 and 1.2160 may be seen on Monday.

nyc jk 11:02 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Andras - see what I mean? LOL

Budapest Daniel 11:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Andras, have you entered into a short position on aussie since yesterday afternoon? I'm curtrently short @ 1.7143, but confused about this position right now...

Kaunas NM 11:00 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:53 GMT September 24, 2004


Your calls are nothing more than a dice.
In my opinion, all you do is spam the forum and confuse
the newbies.

Pecs Andras 10:57 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Raden
I think most people would like to see you stay. The easiest way to avoid all these attacks is:
1. post less
2. give some reasons for your calls instead of impulsingly giving hasty buy/sell levels, which BTW are often conflicting
GL

Budapest Daniel 10:57 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
yes from my side... and please ignore every arogant replies thats a more better solution than asking them why they do this...

nyc jack 10:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
of course indonesia ! gO back to your caves!

Dallas MD 10:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Short GBP/USD @1.8020 30 pip TGT, Tight Stop

swidnica profi-forex 10:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
stay

Ldn 10:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas
you have as much right here as anyone , nobody has to follow your view - give the bloke a break for god sake

Tallinn viies 10:55 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:53 - go

Bangalore RKG 10:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Guess we have too much of personal attacks lately - sad that such a good forum is being used as a vehicle for personal diatribes. Right or Wrong everyone is entitled to a view and one need not be too critical. Raden Mas you have been a valuable contributor over the years. Dont act on impulse. Request some sort of moderation onthe contents of posts.

Tallinn viies 10:50 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:45 - oioi, dont go please. your comments are invaluable! hahahaha

thnks.

Pecs Andras 10:50 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
jk
It is sad, but you are right, I guess

nyc jk 10:48 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
good mrng YM, think you have logged on to the wrong place by accident.........

Kaunas NM 10:47 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius georgas 10:42 GMT September 24, 2004
pritariu. spameris vaikas.


Raden Mas
Good luck and thank you for the good news.


Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Friends!
I am sorry.. I am leaving this forum.
I will start my own and call you there.
thanks
with a heavy bottom and heart
your teacher
Raden

Chicago YM 10:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
morning all sensible people

Sydney Ge11Ja 10:44 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 10:42 GMT September 24, 2004

Thanks mate good weekend to you

Vilnius georgas 10:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas NM 10:40 GMT
speju sedi patsukas ir paustina. prisimenu kaska rase kad eis jis i banka kad priimtu tradinti ten ;) . vienu zodziu nekreipk demesio

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas NM 10:40 GMT
I dont caring you americans or not. If you calling me bad words i will fock you ash.

Gold Coast martin 10:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 10:32 GMT September 24, 2004
..The Japanese vice grip on the euro is still with us....look for a high of 12321 with a finish to 12238......while the yen is trading consistently over 11050, the 12385+ is a pipe dream....g/t

Dallas GEP 10:41 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
RE: The GOOSE. USD/CAD had EVERY opportunity to short thru 1.2760 yesterday so my view SHORT term is that it will long back to 1.2850 area or HIGHER today or Monday IF it can break 1.2815. It is also my view that the SUPPORT at 1.2760 is stronger than the resistance @ 1.2815. Most it appear DO NOT share that view tho.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:41 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd
Level buy :
0.7149
0.7175
0.7199
0.7228
0.7247
Level buy :
0.7102
0.7076
..
usd/jpy
Level buy:
111.15
111.36
Level sell :
110.52
110.27
110.12
109.87
..
usd/jpy
Level buy :
111.15
111.36
Level selll :
110.52
110.27
110.12
109.87
..

Kaunas NM 10:40 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:39 GMT September 24, 2004

You sound like professional educated trader :)
And Kaunas is far from America.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:39 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas NM 09:01 GMT September 24, 2004
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:59 GMT September 24, 2004
focker. quit the useless spam.
>>you call me focker>? I will teach u how to censored. You sons of a prostitute american censored!.I am angrey to you. why you speaks likes that ? when I helps the forum with good views.?
you must be killed u ashhols!
I will post whatever i feel like!

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 10:38 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

Kaunas NM 09:01 GMT September 24, 2004
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:59 GMT September 24, 2004
focker. quit the useless spam.
>>you call me focker>? I will teach u how to censored. You sons of a prostitute american censored!.I am angrey to you. why you speaks likes that ? when I helps the forum with good views.?
you must be killed u ashhols!
I will post whatever i feel like!

Sydney Ge11Ja 10:32 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast I have been finding your posts of late invaluable as I sit here quietly in the background, can I share your view for eur/usd to NY close please?

Gold Coast martin 10:30 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
LOL...I ONLY MENTIONED IT BECAUSE HAIFA AC said he did in one of his posts.....

st. pete islander 10:28 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Good evening, Gecko ..... Understand it is not a good idea to cook your goose while the goose is cooking. Hope you are well. You have mail. gt

Eilat Dolphin 10:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Martin/ Double LOL even!
A good friend of mine, from Haifa... whose real initials are... A.C (no joke!) does happen to have a falafel selling café on the beach of Haifa. (Bat Gallim).

Go ahead Haifa, check! His place is right after what used to be the swimming pool by the sea and before the naval base.

van Gecko 10:23 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin.. sounds like you might be on to a good lean Goose diet there..
just make sure you stay on a discipline diet & don't let those Dollars turn into a Dallas..;))
heres to some good Goose dinner with Cheerios?

swidnica profi-forex 10:23 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
be carefull , banks from Swiss buying eur/usd and gbp/usd...

Gold Coast martin 10:23 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
....kosher pork.....

Gold Coast martin 10:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 10:08 GMT September 24, 2004
LOL....EILAT.....Now i know what he puts in those felafels he sells on the side.....

Ldn Robert 10:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Buying USD here against JPY, EUR, GBP - s/l 30 pips

GER ad 10:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
colo 09:55,
Is not important in which currency you have your deposit/margin requirement (1:20; 1:50;… 1:100;...1:400) (USD, EUR, JPY…). So if you have an equivalent deposit of 1000 USD by a margin of 1:50 you can make a trade of maximum 50000 USD.
For your USD/JPY question that means if you buy USD/JPY that you BOUGHT 50000 USD and you are long USD and short JPY. Your broker/market maker provides you this liquidity and probably will close automatic your position when you will be on margin call (your own money is less than minimum margin requirement).
This is a very hart business, do not trade real money until you learn it and don’t use too high margin. GL!

Eilat Dolphin 10:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Haifa/ What? The rabbis now allow you to buy pork meat?! With Yom Kippour at sunset!!

OK, since Venus, at dawn, will save you...

Ltn th 10:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Colo// Welcome to forum. Are you at Colo west of Sydney/
There are a number of ways you can look at this. One is that you are paying the broker a margin or spread up front for the position whatever it is. Alternatively, the broker is lending you the yen to sell for more dollars.
As to which is more valid. It would depend upon the fine print. Some rogue brokers really get at you but better brokers work on the first scenario and in fact pay you interest on the nett position. Others hit you with absurd charges and interest on the latter scenario. Others perhaps more experienced can amplify.

Eilat Dolphin 10:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gecko/ Lots of chucks of meat is being ripped off from that Goose on her way up: she is too belly heavy, especially after a long flight. That's where I like her.
Like here and now.
Couple of meals a day. Small ones, as to stay lean.
Maximum digestion time if I inhaled plumes: three days.

Haifa ac 10:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
colo 09:55 GMT //How do you sell short stocks or pork bellies you don't have?
this is the beauty of financial transactions. They allow you this.

Calcutta Vikram 10:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 09:05 GMT September 24, 2004
Good afternoon to you, too. Really nice to hear from you. Agree with you totally on that post. Brazil, China, Indonesia, India in the G7 is definitely a good idea. The Security Council also needs a revamp

colo 09:55 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ok, no flames please, I am very new at this, not using real money, here goes, when i click sell say, usd/yen, how am i selling yen i dont have, I only have usd. When i click buy, i am buying yen, and at same time selling usd.

Gen dk 09:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Chicago DL 09:49 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW...do you mean like my post yesterday, stating a technical pattern that banked 80 pips, yes that was pretty negative i must say....... I've been using this forum for many years as Ledge from Coventry, but I'm spending some time in Chicago so I changed, so who are you by the way, I was only stating that Radem Ras posts on levels are of no use to anyone unless of course you can prove me wrong.

van Gecko 09:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
KZ.. the Goose is loose.. the daily, weekly, & monthly $/Cad charts are all in alignment & pointing down to the 1991 1.13 lows..
Long distance 'SOB/Stop profit' flying tactics prevails until the Goose can sustain multiple weekly closes above the 1.34 'no fly zone'..
Buying the Dollar under this strong prevailing Cad trend is an accident waiting to happen.. not to mention the risk of ruin for stubborn m/t Dollar bulls..
have a nice flight to 1.13..



Ldn 09:24 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
UK house prices fall 0.3% in Sep vs 0.1% fall in Aug
Hometrack

Gen dk 09:16 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gold Coast martin 09:14 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
eilat///..thats the problem with eurozone..it is one continuous soft patch with blind freddy in charge(trichet} trying to cure the plague with a magic wand..but hey ..let them have greece....there is no perfect world....
thats enough from me .....i used my alloted quota....good trades everyone....

Gold Coast martin 09:09 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 09:02 GMT September 24, 2004
hi..coming from a greek background and having studied the classics i agree with you...but from a reality point of view no matter how harsh reality is ,it has to be stated and accepted....greece 320bc=GREAT....Greece 1AD-2004 AD=DECLINE....BEST TRADES FOR TODAY AND GREAT CALL ON EURO YESTERDAY....G/T

shanghai bc 09:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

VIKRAM -- Good afternoon..Long time no see..China is likely to agree to continue a serious study on RMB/USD delink..One-off revaluation is out of question at this stage..China was informally invited into G-7 a decade ago...But it took China 10 years to consider the pros and cons of rubbing shoulders with G-7 folks..Frankly,what is in it for China except a show of being there..In the first place,why should Europe have so many countries,6 all together, inside G-7 while Asia and Americas have only a few..Including India and Indonesia from Asia in the club may improve the usefulness of that club though..Brazil may be as important as Canada ,if not more,in economic terms too..G-7 may have outlived its purpose or usefulness by now.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 09:04 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd
Level sell :
0.7149
0.7175
0.7199
0.7228
0.7247
Level buy :
0.7102
0.7076
..
usd/jpy
Level Sell :
111.15
111.36
Level buy :
110.52
110.27
110.12
109.87
..
usd/jpy
Level Sell :
111.15
111.36
Level buy :
110.52
110.27
110.12
109.87
..

London 09:04 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
True , most governments cook the books , just dont get caught

Bris TW 09:03 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Key level for Cable comes in at 1.8059. There is a very good reason it didnt go over that figure yesterday.

Eilat Dolphin 09:02 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Martin/ Hi! I respectfully disagree: Greece is to Europe what Zeus was to Greece, Jerusalem to the monotheists, FX to us, and books to a library!

How could we ever be Europeans without Athens ?

OK, may be they cooked a few numbers. Sometimes one has to put a bandage on a wound just as to hide it.

Bris TW 09:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Chicago DL 08:56 GMT

You have been posting here for 2 days and have got only negative comments? Why dont you post something with at least the value of a fart.

JakarTa PieTLie 09:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
LimiTBuY GBP/USD 1.7890 .... target 1.8040 .....stop @ 1.7840

Kaunas NM 09:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:59 GMT September 24, 2004

focker. quit the useless spam.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:59 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd
Level sell :
0.7149
0.7175
0.7199
0.7228
0.7247
Level buy :
0.7102
0.7076
..
usd/jpy
Level Sell :
111.15
111.36
Level buy :
110.52
110.27
110.12
109.87
..
usd/jpy
Level Sell :
111.15
111.36
Level buy :
110.52
110.27
110.12
109.87
..

Bris TW 08:59 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Good levels there Raden Mas. Near spot on mate

Chicago DL 08:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ooooh thankyou very much Raden Mas for a really interesting post, NOT

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:55 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
Level Sell :
1.7996
1.7977
1.8076
1.8108
1.8139
Level Buy :
1.7940
1.7927
1.7906
1.7806
1.7890
1.7870
..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf
Level Sell :
1.2628
1.2648
1.2694
1.2712
1.2770
Level buy :
1.2584
1.2471
1.2416
1.2393
1.2378
..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:52 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd
Level Sell :
1.2378
1.2393
1.2416
1.2468
Level buy :
1.2236
1.2207
1.2192
1.2169
1.2144
1.2103
..

Ldn 08:52 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR needs to make further strength soon or a break below 1.2225-2200 support will signal rate is heading back toward range lows at 1.21-1.20

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
good evening everybody !!
be carefull with gbp/usd when touch 1.7996. maybe gbp/usd sellers are there..

mumbai Goldman 08:41 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Are American ecnomic numbers realy or statistically jugglery , as a run upto elections?

Ldn Cashman 08:39 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
I seem to remember that Italy fiddled the numbers. Can't remember the detaqils though.

PAR 08:36 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
I have suspicion that European inflation figures have been even more manipulated than Greece budget deficit figures.

Belgrad KZ 08:36 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 08:22 GMT September 24, 2004
man u are great in this pair, what about weeks ahead, this and the next month? Is it possible correction to 1,32-1,34, or first we will see 1,25

KL KL 08:24 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
cover long gbpusd 1.7970 for dinner money +12 pips...will rebuy later....hungry!!

van Gecko 08:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
for anyone who might be looking for an after the fact "explanation" on the '1000 pip Great Fall of Dollar/Canada from 1.38 '
:))
Golfing..
Grey Goose vodka baron style..
:))
so, there might be a real time correlation between trading, boozing, & golfing.. a $/Goose Boozedex ?
Cheerios..


Gold Coast martin 08:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
PAR 07:52 GMT September 24, 2004
The Greek mentality of "do it now and worry about it later" is hereditary...you are right greece does not belong in the EU..what have they got to offer the eurozone?....apart from tourism..nothing else except OLIVES ,LEMONS AND FIGS.....SAD STATE OF EUROZONE...G/T

Moskow 08:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

Reliable forex historical data
for trading system verification and precise technical analysis
Intraday data are presented since 1997

Plovdiv Gotin 07:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Anka/ If you around, How do you see $/SF today? TIA.

LAX-LGB SNP 07:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
considering longs on $ and ¥ against €, CHF and £ 'disrespectively' - provided Asian levels can stem the flow

NewYork frankie 07:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
just buying aussie at 7129 for 7160

PAR 07:52 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Greece has been reporting false budget deficit figures for the last 4 years. Based on actual figures Greece would never have been allowed to join the Euro and should be forced out of the Euro . Greece is like Enron and the european commission should take action if it wants to keep any credibility. Greece out of Euro should be Euro positif since the market dont like cheating.

Calcutta Vikram 07:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML......India and China are following a similar strategy of getting into joint ventures for lesser known oil fields all over the globe. I was just wondering what leverage China might want in exchange for revaluing the Yuan.

Singapore Sfx 07:41 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi Vikram - you're right, China will be included for "part of the G7 meeting" of Fin mins and central bankers in Washington ...

Thanks for the update but honestly, way outside my league to understand enough of the mechanics involved to comment on it. Lots of more knowledgable folk here and hopefully a discussion will ensue. Will follow closely. Cheers.

Syd 07:38 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR12Bn Bond Redemption weighs after asian selling caps

ICT ML 07:38 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram;
China has made a play for the oil in the Sudan and other African countries andI think they'll be left alone for the time being.

But you raise good thinking points there...thanks

Calcutta Vikram 07:32 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, Sfx. If I'm not mistaken, China has been invited to attend, is it not? Please confirm/ refute.

Here's what I wrote to a friend yesterday. Comments/ insights welcome....

Agreed, China (and all the other Asian countries) have little interest in having the Dollar fall. But other global investors seem to have little interest in the Dollar. As such the Euro and Gold are being bought for the last two years. The Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index is going to touch the roof in the months ahead.

For China to agree to letting the Yuan strengthen against the Dollar in the very near future, there has to be a quid-pro-quo. And only China has the ability to insist upon, and get, such a quid-pro-quo. The question then is, what could this quid-pro-quo be?

If the G7 want a one-time revaluation of the Yuan, China might ask for a one time grant of, say, Oil at lower than market prices. I'm just thinking. Or some huge market access into the USA. Or several small Oil exploration rights scattered across the globe, so that it doesn't catch the public eye easily. But, would the USA be willing to play ball?

Or could it want some political pay-off? Its already a member of the Security Council and the WTO. It is not a signitory to the CTBT and the NPT and is under no pressure to become one. One thing it wants is Taiwan, but may be willing to handle Taiwan on its own and not pay the world for
staying away.

What else? It has no use for Gold as such, because gold can't be used for production. It can buy Gold at any point in case (and has in fact been doing so for the last two years). Oil
is one thing it may dearly want and might try to get. Question is, HOW? What could the modalities be?

If the G7 wants the Yuan to be floated (not a one time revaluation), then China will want a higher price. Which the world may be unwilling or unable to pay.

Private investments will continue to flow to China and Asia. But Oil is an eco-political prize which it can ask for in return for revaluing the Yuan (just a wee little bit or maybe a little bit more). That could be where the action might be.

Singapore Sfx 07:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
next weekend, moshai

Calcutta Vikram 07:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends.
Can someone please tell when is the next G7 Fin Min meeting. TIA

KL KL 07:12 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
In I go long gbpusd 1.7970 sl 20 below....hopefully up up & away.....until whatever data.. hit & run mode

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 07:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf now in buy signal. Long for 1.2650

ICT ML 06:57 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Just sold some Aud$ at .7125 a bit ago, in the theme of our plan posted las week, top of daily channel held so we sold it for the bottom of the channel around .6700 with some bounces expected in the .6840-.6770 big picture support area.

Have an odd combination of trades open now..short Eur-Gbp, long $Yen, short $Cad, short Aud$......don't think it is a purely U$D focused market right now myself (Yet).

lahore eur/usd 06:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 06:49 GMT September 24, 2004 /thanks

Singapore Sfx 06:50 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
nice trades viies.

Tallinn viies 06:49 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
good morning !
bought euros back yesterday at 1,2275.
as picture turned worser, sold them back today at 1,2280.
took time out for clearer picture.
want to see it lower of higher before next step.
right now seems we may slip back to 1,2120/30 level. picture changes if 1,2350 taken out.
good luck

lahore eur/usd 06:40 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
what see eur/usd today,

Toronto EDP 06:07 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana........When you buy (long) or sell (short) any currency pair it is referring to the action you have taken on the first currency listed of that pair. However, when you close that position, the settlement (profit or loss) will be calculated on the second currency listed in the pair and it is this which in turn will later be converted to your US$ based account. As an example, if you bought (went long) the USD/CAD pair and you closed the position with a 40 pip gain (because the chart went up as you say), your profit would be 40 CAD pips which might convert to perhaps only 31.25 US dollars going into your account.....

Bandung Asti 05:21 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Sold gbp/usd 1.7965...Tp. 1.7919...SL 1.7985...

Le Havre Alphonse Brown65 05:20 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi,
Short usd/chf at 1.2596 for 1.2550 --->1.2500

Bandung Asti 05:07 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
hi...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:57 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
GM
Syd..U buying Cable around 1.7932?
I think it might bounce back to 1.8070..
Your call Pls?

Gold Coast martin 04:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 04:13 GMT September 24, 2004
Stay safe and good week end...g/t

Calabash TarHeel 04:13 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
houston st
Ivan will be remembered for a long time. Other than lot of rain, don't think he will cause you too much problem. Jeanne should be in my area Mon. night or Tue. morn, see what happens then.
Well I'm a couple of hrs ahead of you, so think I'll call it a night.
Take care and have a great weekend.

Same to you Martin
Happy Trades

wisconsin tim 03:57 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
When you say short and long, does short mean the graph goes down YES
and long means up?YES

Or exactly what do those words mean? yeah for me short = sell and long = buy. I remember a while back there was a debate whether those terms (short/long) should be used but just a holdover from happier times.

Tijauna 03:48 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin - Thanks for an answer. When you say short and long, does short mean the graph goes down and long means up? Or exactly what do those words mean?

NewYork frankie 03:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
closed all my euros for a 20pip loss

houston st 03:42 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

Gold Coast martin 03:32 GMT -- thanks for the intel...I'll continue to monitor the yen pairs for opportunity...I may watch this Friday sideshow from the sidelines, as my track record for Friday trading is pretty choppy lately...continued luck and a good weekend to you.

wisconsin tim 03:34 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana you sold eur/usd so on the chart, yes you want it down. You also sold usd/cad and you want that to go down as well. In effect you are short a eur/cad i think. Is this what you are asking?

Gold Coast martin 03:32 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
houston st 03:23 GMT September 24, 2004
Been a day of no market moving data the market is directionless and as traders look to square up ahead of the weekend and with the japs still at play we are in for further euro shedding...a 122 finish for the week is not out of the question....The only direction is in the USD/JPY...Look for a 11125 finish for the week..... Overloaded yen crosses should shed more weight today....good luck.....

Calabash TarHeel 03:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
For a change, the forum has been very enjoyable tonight.
Thanks!

wisconsin tim 03:25 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
actually it's not as bad as it initially reads

Ldn 03:23 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE may be not

houston st 03:23 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

MARTIN -- but as Johnny Carson use to say, "if you can make him roll over on his back and float, then you've really got something."...any thoughts for Friday? you've had a pretty good couple of weeks with your predictions...nice job...gl/gt.

NYC YIPPEE 03:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
OH MY GOD !
I hope that that is some kind of joke.

Gold Coast martin 03:18 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
HOUSTON ST..best not to look in CRAWFORD....Perhaps we can round up all the bull headed bond fund people in new york and point them the right way..but as they:you can lead a horse to water but you cant make it drink.....or bulls for that matter!.....good trades.....

houston st 03:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

TARHEEL -- I see I have to get up pretty early to fool you...I was hoping the bulls in question were imported from France, but that's probably too much to hope...I guess I'll have to round up some two-legged bulls from FF & GVI to proceed...it looks like the two of us are in for some rainy weather over the next few days...thanks for sending Ivan back down to the Gulf...it was just what we needed...I'm off to put my high-water pants on and formulate the next assault on FX...good trades and a great weekend to you.

Tijuana 03:14 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Does anybody use censored trading platform? Mabie it is like this with every broker but what I want to understand is this:

When I want to place a market order for EUR/USD, I have to buy dollars and sell euros and my account is in dollars. Then I make money if the graph is going downward rather than up.
If I place a market order for USD/CAD, I am buying CAD with dollars and along with the other, I make money as the graph goes downward. Can anyone explain this to me?

Calabash TarHeel 03:08 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
houston st 02:49 GMT September 24, 2004
Hello St. If you are referring to rounding up a herd of bulls to weaken to the USD to 1.25 vs the EUR, don't think I would go looking in Crawford. Using the word weak and US in the same sentence could get one trampled by the herd in Crawford.
Happy Trades

Gold Coast martin 03:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 01:52 GMT September 24, 2004
Gold Coast martin 01:48 GMT September 24, 2004

I just pray you do not work for NAB SYD !

NO YIP BUT FROM MEMORY BOCA DID!.....LOL

houston st 03:00 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

from the archives:

shanghai bc 03:03 GMT May 28, 2004
"..In the medium-term,rate rise in a debt-ridden economy can only be a disaster for the currency of that economy.."

Syd 02:59 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY Japanese names sold above 79.00

houston st 02:49 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

BC 02:22 -- thanks...I'll keep that in mind when NFPs get closer...I recall you saying a month or so ago that if there was going to be any decent trend, it may start around Sept till the end of the year; I hope this is the case...as for finding enough bulls who believe in this breakout, I'm off to Crawford, TX to round up the herd...I hear all the bulls there are extra bullish, although I'm told they all lean to the right...good luck/weekend to you.

wisconsin tim 02:46 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 9/24/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
9/23/2004 AUDUSD 0.7194 0.7110 0.7201 0.7040
9/23/2004 EURGBP 0.6851 0.6810 0.6869 0.6802
9/23/2004 EURUSD 1.2331 1.2235 1.2387 1.2218
9/23/2004 EURYEN 136.44 135.34 137.21 135.19
9/23/2004 GBPUSD 1.8043 1.7902 1.8087 1.7883
9/23/2004 GBPYEN 199.70 197.96 200.45 197.77
9/23/2004 NDZUSD 0.6720 0.6644 0.6718 0.6600
9/23/2004 USDCAD 1.2834 1.2725 1.2875 1.2700
9/23/2004 USDCHF 1.2645 1.2547 1.2666 1.2490
9/23/2004 USDYEN 111.04 110.24 111.26 110.05

Syd 02:41 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th Many would live there if they could afford
LINK

Gold Coast martin 02:36 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 02:28 GMT September 24, 2004
ITS OK..we all have our opinions....sometimes a retiree should be spared the headaches of been involved in this game as FOREX and a peaceful retirement do not make an ideal partner....but on the other hand where do they park their money safely.....it is definitely a buyer beware scenario....good luck with your endeavours....cheers

hk mom 02:34 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
this is very amusing.

Ltn th 02:28 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Martin. Sorry if I gave the impression that I was having a go at you in any way. I was endeavouring to back up your expert status. Also those wealthy retirees need a lot of advice.
I am aware of your previous melbourne existence.

Gold Coast martin 02:23 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
LTN.. th..FWIW..I am originally from melbourne....the climate here best agrees with my work....g/t

shanghai bc 02:22 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

ST 01:41 -- Good morning..Hope to see it only after next US non-farm figures..The trick is in finding enough bulls who believe in the breakout ...Next non-farm figures may do the job..If a curency falls or ranges when its rate hike season is in full blaze,it tells a lot about the hidden strength of that currency..Good trades.

Brisbane L 02:19 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th actually Gold Coast is one of the fastest growing states in Australia with over a 1000 people from the southern states a month ,who wouldnt with the weather constant 25-30dgs must be a long time since you took a look

Gold Coast martin 02:19 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 02:01 GMT September 24, 2004
JUST A CLARIFICATION IN RELATION TO THE GOLD COAST....WHILE THE COAST ENJOYED A LOT OF JAPANESE INVESTMENT IN THE LATE 80s all changed with the property bust of 1990 and further on with the changing japanese economy necessitating a lot of funds to be repatriated back home....since then there has been less and less japanese investment into the coast with the majority coming from local sector financed by the property boom(soon to go hit harder times)...The coast is NOT a Japanese enclave as you put it and NO i am not retired.....g/t

hk mom 02:05 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
hk dad//Don't use other's account deliberately.

Ltn th 02:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Yippee. To clarify. The Gold Coast is an enclave largely populated by wealthier retired australians and japanese.

Gold Coast martin 02:00 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
BRISBANE L....as i mentioned ages ago i do consult elliot but it only forms a small part in my overall analysis.....g/t

Ltn th 01:58 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Martin 1:41// Very diplomatic in use of term ex rather than im. LOL.
I suppose views may be coloured by particular shoguns currently maintaining GC establishments and their relative influence with executive and Diet.
Both US and AU elections process disruptions tend to muck up processes and allow opportunistic endeavours.

Brisbane L 01:54 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin is some of your analysis similar to that of Elliot Wave ?
I have found that the market seems to be 50-50 split on the USD direction

Gold Coast martin 01:53 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Also the moment that the Bond guys wake up and see that the economy is not as bad as their perception the better the market will stabilise...g/t

NYC YIPPEE 01:52 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 01:48 GMT September 24, 2004

I just pray you do not work for NAB SYD !

chicago joe 01:52 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
that is risk reward is less than 1 for long aud imo. GT

chicago joe 01:51 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 01:31 GMT September 24, 2004
yeah, sure doesn't look like it's gonna be a reversal candle at this point. Thanks for the comments might have some good buying opps tomorrow/next week.

I would not say a reversal but I would say risk/reward ratio might be less than 1 at this point. Just my 2 cents.

Chicago Goofy 01:49 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 01:41 GMT September 24, 2004

Exactly what i think these days after made up this part knowledge. I feel in this battle between BOJ and Fund or Treasury(not sure who are buying Yen and why), The balance point would be 110.50--112.50 area b4 G7 submit. Of course, if Kerry going to lead the new government, it would be another story. Just my humble opinion.

Gold Coast martin 01:48 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Bribane L 01:45 GMT September 24, 2004
YES DEFINITELY....still have aud shorts and timeframe for lower aud has not changed...g/t

nyc Joel 01:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Food for thought gentlemen/ladies
If the Japanese are scaling back growth expectations
Then the US OF A arent far behind
( just keep a keen eye on 10y treasuries)

Bribane L 01:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin Martin are you still holding any Aud shorts ? and your time frame for a lower aud still in place . Your view helpful at the moment

houston st 01:45 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

BC -- happy Friday...are you still expecting 1.25 on eur/usd in the near future?...trying to get a broader outlook on this pair and daily chart is not clear enough for this old hillbilly to interpret...thanks, good trades and good weekend.

hk mom 01:44 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
good morning Mr. Long I like aud/jpy
(/;->

Gold Coast martin 01:41 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 01:31 GMT September 24, 2004
In further making the BOJ structure relevant to now is: When thE top 10 exporters have a quite word to their politicians about currency concerns the BOJ goes on stealth mode which is what has been happening in september.....thiis ties in with my previous post about the funds versus boj battle....g/t

Ltn th 01:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
BC 00:52// Many thanks for your clarification. It confirmed my imperfect understanding. It also leads to some interesting speculations that may need more reliable TA to be usefull.
I apologise for not as yet thanking you for your equal clarity about the yukos business on PF the other day. I am waiting for events and my poor thought processes to clarify some further questions.

wisconsin tim 01:31 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
yeah, sure doesn't look like it's gonna be a reversal candle at this point. Thanks for the comments might have some good buying opps tomorrow/next week.

NYC YIPPEE 01:28 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 13:31 GMT September 23, 2004
FWIW Selling AUDJPY at 78.95. Will look again next week.

bc -- Not greedy. Took my money, and will look again. I am, like you a dollar seller, however I sense a good day for the dollar ahead of G7 and in to the rest of the month.

shanghai bc 01:26 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

Aud/JPy met its initial objective around .7920 last night after breaking out around .7720--.7520 some days ago..Reasonable and needed correction,I would say..But once it pushes above .8000 after this pull-back,we have to assume .8500 as the next target..In other words,new high for the year for Aussie.

Illinois DB 01:24 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

Global-View Rules 23:56 GMT September 23, 2004
Note this rule, it will be strictly enforced.

8. Personal attacks on individual participants are not permitted. Readers are encouraged to respect the ideas of those who have been kind enough to contribute to the forum and treat one another with civility and respect. Discussions of brokers are not permitted.


GVI THANK YOU. That will make this forum MUCH more readable.

Prague JV 01:17 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Tim // I had a look in your aud/usd chart and noticed couple observations which could be signaling the next move .
IMO they are :

-bolinger band is expending and the dayly close is above the bend.
-there is divergance on your Trix indicator and chart (29th low and Sept. low)
-if I wud drow line on the top of Trix at Jul and Aug , which is similar to your down chanel on the chart it is brokn now at point on the 17 th .

All imho .

Dublin CK 01:11 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 00:29 GMT September 24, 2004 Aud Reversal Pattern? Was just thinking the exact same thing. Im not a candlestick expert, but that pattern if all the rules are meet indicates a reversal. Enlarge the image and you can see the pattern repeated over different time ccys. I think crucial is the close above the bollinger and then reversal back in. GL/GT

Brisbane L 00:56 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
FX dealers at Major Japanese banks said to have scaled down expectations on what the Japanese economy can deliver with global growth moderating saying that Japan alone cannot maintain fast growth when other countries show sign of slowing and they dont see the latest data as too bad.

shanghai bc 00:52 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   

TH 21:55 -- BOJ got its legal independence from the government only several years ago..Before that,they have been carrying the brief-case of MOF for decades..But the boss is still selected by PM's Office..In practice,they,the top dogs in Financial Ministry and BOJ, all go to the same golf club and health club..Everything important,including all banking matters, is still done under the table in time-honoured fashion..Who has upperhand?..In law,forex policy is strictly that of MOF but forex policy is just a part of overall financial/economic policy..I guess, the question of who really pulls the strings behind the scene, all depends who the bosses of BOJ and MOF are in reality..In other words,who has more clout inside LDP leadership and top business circle..Sounds strange but that is typical of Japan and even China..

Eilat Dolphin 00:39 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
ck1/ Yes four reasons for that May 24 to 27 eurusd burst:

1/ the narrow range of the prior ten days had to be broken one way or another, and Philly fed on the 21 started the move as analysts were way off. Imagine: 31.5% expected to 23.5% real...
2/ Consumer confidence came then 1% below expectation.
3/ Followed by durable goods orders at - 2.9% instead of -.8% !
4/ Finally the GDP came at 4.4 instead of 4.6% expected.


Hope it helps.

dc fxq 00:32 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
that FWIW was a consensus call on JPN tertiary index.

Also FWIW: " The indexes for all six sectors -- services, wholesale and retail sales, financial services and insurance, utilities, transport and communications, and real estate"

wisconsin tim 00:29 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
tomorrow bring another reversal candle AUD?

AUDUSD Chart

dc fxq 00:27 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
The only call I saw was +0.2 WIW.

Gen dk 00:19 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney Alimin 00:09 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
any aussie data release?

Toronto YV 00:01 GMT September 24, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo , thanks what was estim.+0.3?

 




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