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Forex Forum Archive for 09/26/2004

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Sydney EM 23:45 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Costello told radio 3AW in Melbourne.
Standard and Poor's warned the government and Labor on Aug. 30 to keep a reign on spending promises or risk losing the nation's AAA credit rating.

Ltn th 23:33 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Are the weekly candlesticks on AUDYEN and AUDUSD of any significance?

wisconsin tim 23:08 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
toronto, i assume you are talking about USD/YEN ... they are dojis ...
"Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign. Doji convey a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the opening level during the session, but close at or near the opening level."

Syd 23:04 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
REPORTS: AUSTRALIAN EMBASSY IN BEIRUT A TERRORIST TARGET There are claims the Australian embassy in Beirut may have been a target in a planned terrorist attack. The Australian newspaper reports a Lebanese Government minister has reportedly confirmed a plot to destroy the Italian embassy would have also brought down the British and Australian embassies. The potential terror plot is said to have been foiled last week
Sky News.

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 23:03 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
anyone has opinion on the last 2 dailiy candlez m they got practically no "body" 100% shadow , ??

Tacoma A B 22:41 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin Tim:
yeah, loving the doji on the day chart of the aussie dollar. It matches the two dojis on the last two previous peaks in this down trend a few weeks ago, and a couple before that. I'm thinking that and it being at the top of the channel are major reversal indicators right here, but that macd you have on your chart seems to point to something else. I guess we'll see. All i know is, if history repeats its self, its 100 pips in 2 days.

Athens 22:40 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
I find it technically correct to buy $/JPY in the low 110's if it gets there provided the Yen won't be in O/S territory v. EUR and/or GBP at the time. Have a good trading week everyone.

wisconsin tim 21:30 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
still not sold doing either AUD/USD or AUD/NDZ shorts ... doji on the AUD/$

AUDs Charts

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:43 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Last Post Was yen...
Just In case

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:36 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Nest 30 days will see fundamentals (well thought out) and tecnics/charts playing together I think and an upward trend for the €/$ chart.

shanghai bc 05:16 GMT September 26, 2004
♥ You've blessed us with what I have a hunch as the most informative and accurate post concering China's policies and future policies and motivations for those policies that I've seen on this forum. Thank you! ♥ Let's hope this thing with Taiwan doesn't progress to conflict to sour the milk.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:58 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   

Date Short Short PT Long PT Long
Wed-09/29/04 110.6511 110.4439 109.3358 109.0876
Tue-09/28/04 112.0180 110.9274 109.4221 108.4398
Thu-09/30/04 110.6486 110.3893 109.4034 109.3273
Sun-09/26/04 111.2708 111.1632 109.9244 109.8237
Mon-09/27/04 111.4028 111.2554 110.0622 109.6369
Fri-10/01/04 110.9879 110.5831 109.4154 108.7042
Grand Total 112.0180 110.3893 110.0622 108.4398

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:24 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
any seen anything like this?
For the euro...schedule Your trades!!!

Date Short Short PT Long PT Long
Fri-10/01/04 1.2280 1.2256 1.2120 1.2046
Fri-10/08/04 1.2231 1.2230 1.2072 1.2069
Mon-09/27/04 1.2417 1.2377 1.2197 1.2152
Mon-10/04/04 1.2350 1.2333 1.2188 1.2177
Sat-10/02/04 1.2310 1.2182 1.2097 1.2046
Sun-09/26/04 1.2442 1.2405 1.2205 1.2182
Sun-10/03/04 1.2398 1.2325 1.2145 1.1997
Thu-09/30/04 1.2261 1.2217 1.2108 1.2069
Thu-10/07/04 1.2412 1.2226 1.2134 1.2068
Tue-09/28/04 1.2451 1.2373 1.2168 1.2090
Tue-10/05/04 1.2341 1.2304 1.2186 1.2174
Wed-09/29/04 1.2540 1.2313 1.2066 1.1988
Wed-10/06/04 1.2414 1.2352 1.2195 1.2073
Grand Total 1.2540 1.2182 1.2205 1.1988

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:01 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Dubai 07:25 GMT September 26, 2004
Welcome! Keep the forum active with your trades with reasons for them, keeping in mind each forum (Political, Help, etc.) has it's specialty and specific use and classification. Start a new trend; give a brief reason(s) for your trades. (hint to us all)

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:45 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Read my post today in Political Forum abt top US commander in Iraq says..we'll sustain a long term Arab war AND a war in the mid Asia. Nutha "set" of Viet Nams, folks. Words can not describe my distaste for this mal use of tax money & mal "leadership". Taiwan means to keep it's freedom from the monkey men in Beijing and Beijing wants Taiwan's booty, Taiwan missles now tested.. bet the long hairy nose of the US will poke around in there somewhere in the fight, 1000s more KIAs. Korea's nuke program gives the finger at US/UN protest. Oh what a pretty world. I've got to plant my tax free Andes farm and fill my gas tank with cheap national gasoline and cook my lunch on propane that is subsidized from our national oil leases and not pay taxes meanwhile for the same reason, plus Ecuador doesn't colonize the world, doesn't side with anyone, doesn't have a space program or a CIA to support. I love the "3rd world". Please send more tax paid do-gooder aid so I won't have to pay for my roads, potable water, communications or infrastructure wither. I'd rather be the nail than the one can pry me out.

Ldn Jim 17:20 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B 17:15 GMT September 26, 2004
Aussie Dollar heading for a down day? Opinions?

I think so

Tacoma A B 17:15 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Aussie Dollar heading for a down day? Opinions?

usa 17:15 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
anyone have USD long at all? I'm short GBP .. may close for a loss here though... anyone?

Tacoma A B 17:13 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
hopefully we're all square on that canada thing

GER ad 15:32 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 15:06,
Maybe he is talking about CAD/USD now 0.7849 (USD/CAD 1.2740). And by mistake wrote 1.7849...

Tacoma A B 15:17 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
my bad my bad
Its early here on the west coast.
Yeah, let me check that USD/CAD

Looking at the correct charts now, its a sell in my opinion. The only support you have is a low at 1.268 from about nine or ten months ago. You could bounce of that, but by then, you'll be down another fifty pips. On the hour chart, it keeps on stepping down, and is building a step right now. Until it goes up a step and knocks out a high of one of those previous steps, you're not going to see much green. If you're intent on playing this particular stock, I'd almost say stop and reverse here in the first few hours of market open. if not right at the japanese bell.

SD tht 15:06 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
When did USD/CAD trade in the high 1.70? Perhaps you're refering to cable?

Tacoma A B 14:52 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
On the usd/cad, I think that the long term upward momentum will continue as long as it holds 1.7714. You're also right in the middle of a channel that has developed over the last two weeks which is bullish, and is still intact. The bottom of that channel is right around 1.7950. As well, on friday, we had a break into a new high, athat put us above the previous double top, and if it can hold above that, we have very little resistance to the upside till about 1.82. However, if it can't stay above about where it is now, the mid august and late september resistance around 1.8 will prove too strong, and it will fall back to somewhere between 1.795 and 1.77. For the ultra short term, I'd probably pull out here till you know it can break this resistance. But that's just me.

Melbourne Qindex 11:00 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Makati Obelix 08:36 GMT - I am very tire and I need another vacation, cheers!

Makati Obelix 08:36 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Welcome back Dr. Q

Ldn 08:24 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Weekend special for *** *** HK ab

UNITED NATIONS (AP)--Iraq's interim prime minister stood before the U.N. General Assembly and urged the world body to set aside differences over the legitimacy of the U.S.-led war and help his country build a stable democracy, saying that failure to do so would be a victory for terrorism. Despite the obstacles, he said his government was prepared to hold democratic elections as scheduled in January. Allawi, referring to the country's seemingly unyielding insurgency, said that "an extreme, tiny minority" was seeking to undermine the Iraqi people's dream of living in a stable, secure democracy. Appealing for help from the international community, he called for a broader support base for the coalition troops in the country that would provide security for U.N. workers assisting in the elections. He said that a united front was the only way to build security not just in Iraq, but regionally and globally. "Our victory will be your victory," he said. "And if we are defeated, then you are defeated."

Taiwan Tests Missiles That Could Hit China Cities
TAIPEI (AP)--Taiwan has developed and successfully test fired surface-to-surface missiles that could hit coastal or interior Chinese cities, a newspaper reported on Sunday.
The missiles, dubbed Hsiung-feng 2A and Hsiung-feng 2E, have ranges between 150 to 300 kilometers, the mass-market Liberty Times said, citing unidentified military sources.
The new weapons are similar to cruise missiles, which can be programmed to seek out and hit land targets, the paper said.
The development of the missiles is a sensitive issue because Taiwan has pledged to buy and make only defensive weapons. But politicians have increasingly proposed making offensive weapons as well, noting the best deterrent to war would be the capability to launch an attack. Taiwan has developed shorter-range missiles and purchased U.S.-made Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The Liberty Times report said some of the new missiles could hit Chinese cities if they are fired from naval ships in the middle of the 160 kilometer Taiwan Strait dividing Taiwan and China. In defending a massive new order of U.S.-made submarines and anti-missile systems, Taiwan's Premier Yu Shyi-kun said Saturday the weapons were necessary to maintain the balance of power with China.
"You fire 100 missiles at me, I fire 50 at you. You hit Taipei and Kaohsiung, I at least hit Shanghai," Yu said, mentioning Taiwan's and China's most populated cities.
The remarks appeared to confirm long-held suspicions that Taiwan has been developing missiles that could hit China's interior.

Melbourne Qindex 07:43 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dubai 07:25 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   

i am new to this forum and i want to say hello

Spr Noods 06:06 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   

"But then it should be China who sets its time table because it knows its situation best,not some foreign politicos whose agenda is all about more votes in their constituencies.. "
Stuffing myself with mooncakes this weekend...have a good one there

On Dlr/cad...(for our friend from Calgary)
a lot of option stuff to be KOed thus nothing changed on the direction

Calgary help!!!! 05:33 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
I am kind of lost here I have been playing the usd/cad market have been watching it for a while now and I am not sure what to do. I have seen bollinger calling for a breakout or a reversal,I am not sure what the market is going to do here by sunday or monday.Does anyone have something they can say here to help me with my decision.i am currently long in my position.but I have to decide if I am going to dump it or sit it out to see if there will be a bounce.
Thank you in advance

P.S I hope I am making sense here

shanghai bc 05:16 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   

NOODY -- China imports as much as it exports in recent years..The overall trade balance is evenly balanced..The overall trade surplus is less than what its cb makes from currency trading each month during good runs.. From China's perspective,it does not feel obliged to revalue or devalue its currency at present when the trade account is so well balanced..If China makes hundreds of billions of Dollars of surplus from its world trade each year,that is another issue..China may not have any valid argument on that side..But China may be having trade deficits this year thanks to massive imports from all over the world..China is now the 3rd largest importer in the world while only 4th larget exporter in the world..Many countries owe their recovery to China's massive imports in recent years ,starting from Japan and many Latin and Asian countries..Floating its currency in time may work in time..But then it should be China who sets its time table because it knows its situation best,not some foreign politicos whose agenda is all about more votes in their constituencies.. Assuming China decides to gradually float sometime around 2006(at least before 2008 Olympics),it may provide one more currency with decent liquidity to trade for us all..And if most chinese savers rush to buy foreign currencies for whatever reasons(these folks have some 1.8 trillion Dollar worth of RMB in their savings a/c),RMB may drop like a stone contrary to the expectation of many foreign politicians..And it will create a lot of headache for China's cb too..All foreign currencies may shoot to the Moon against RMB too..RMB's upward path is not all that assured at least at the start of floating given its low interest rates and bank's massive bad debt issues..In longer term,RMB may steadily rise against most major currencies..

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 03:23 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
27th or arounds maybe a short-term trend change and by next week-end we may see 1.2400 I think.

gt everyone.
TIA :-)

Tacoma A B 02:32 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
So you're looking really long term on that, like several months. That's cool. I'm thinking about the first few hours on monday kind of thing, just a pop back to the levels it was at a bit ago of this current small support its at right now.

Spr Noods 02:14 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Not trying to kick myself into the whirlpool of China vs USA

The relationship is one of symbosis...pick anything on your Xmas tree in Dec u will see cheap stuff all made in China..China then recycles into the USTs
but all u need to know is that China set the peg to so-called save rest of Asia from the Asian Currency Crisis

Now that instability is mostly gone
and there is sound basis even for China to take off the peg
and move towards upping exporters' margins?

Lets stay on the trading side and lets not get emotional?

ICT ML 01:37 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
Well I have been seeing .6550 >>.6300 >>.6000 area coming since January. it bounced twice off .6550 area like I thought it would, and I think it is headed there again. If it holds then I think it has bottomed for the near future and heads back up.

But in my monthly studies it was a huge sell @ .7000 and I don't see anything saying its a long term buy yet.

Now week to week it will bounce all over the place. But my trade was for this fall and next year. Could always be wrong too.

Tacoma A B 01:18 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply   
ICT: As far as a long term play, I think we're awfully close to breaking the uptrend, but, do you think there is a possibility that the break below the trendline will correct, and it will head up to post a new higher high? I mean, although it has broken the trendline, it hasn't posted a lower low yet. Thanks.


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