Forex Forum Archive for 09/27/2004

ICT ML 23:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Athens...thanks much for responding. Being long from 109.85 I have to decide whether I cover it going into the weekend regardless if targets hit or not. I was absolutely hammered the first few hours after G7 last year and don't desire to repeat that fiasco again.

But I think 115 is realistic target if oil stays in high $40's or breaks $50 (which I suspect there will be anonymous fierce resistance) if I was in charge in an election year there would be anyway.......

LA fxnew 23:56 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Looks like cable will fly to 83xx

what do you think guys?

Athens 23:47 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP and Toronto, you are talking the same price, one mantions bid and the other offered side.

ML, I think those Tokyo guys are more interested in the price to print for their fiscal half year end for their books than than for the G-7 at present.

Dallas GEP 23:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Toronto in US seesion my platform saw 1.2708

Toronto 23:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP. It didn't bounce off 1.2708. 1.2713 was the low offer.

Jakarta r4v3n 23:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
btw, I also got off the cable a little bit too early yesterday (mine was 1.8040). from 1.7930.

Jakarta r4v3n 23:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va raven...thank's..
I still remember that u always made great calls on cable. Currently, I played stock index and forex on and off....tia

Dallas GEP 23:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RE: USD/CAD Actually while 1.2680 is a support point so is 1.2708 (a fib point) and so is 1.2700. It bounced off 1.2708 earlier today.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 23:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Calgary MS

The only critical support is around 1.2680 area. If break, downfall is on the table!

I prefer to short $/Cad around 1.2725 area, with STP 1.2740 for T/P around 1.2680 area or bellow (prefered) .

GL!

ICT ML 23:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Any of you long time Yen guys like ArtofYen think there is a chance of BOJ bidding up $YEN as high as it can going into the G7 so they can let it go from higher levels....like 115 same as last year?

Va Raven 23:20 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi, Jakarta Raven, long time no C...... just want to say one more time that I do feel sorry to accidentally steal your forum handle.
Re Cable, I did see it running over 1.81 last week (I got out at 1.8051), but somewhat feel it's a little bit ahead of itself. It really depends on how high eur/usd could go this time, 1.2470 in eur/usd, we have no option but a high 1.82 cable is set to see. Otherwise failure again at 1.2345, cable 1.8145 is a good sell too.
Sorry for not having a straight view.

Dallas GEP 23:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Ok got 1.2715 LONGS in now on USD/CAD, 201.55 has NOT been hit yet on BID on gbp/jpy so I am not yet in SHORT on that pair

Calgary MS 23:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I see no one is talking of usd/cad does anyone see anything positive in the very near future.I am currently long here see
that it is 1.2711 I know there was a bollinger cross but not sure what to expect will oil and gold rising anyone have some answers. Thank You in Advance

Jakarta r4v3n 23:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven....do u have any thought for gbp/usd??
thanks. Btw, does anyone know if china going to increase their interest rates or not?

Va Raven 23:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Syd, thanks again for teh view. I was kidding about the Iraq after read your tease - " may move if Labor get in power". Cheers!

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 22:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
kartosuro
hello jg

welcome and GL!

CAIRO AG 22:54 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
ML// Thanks my friend.

Syd 22:48 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven just a point though, any dip between 68 and 70 I would be a buyer of the Aud

Syd 22:47 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven Iraq is an ongoing problem and here they are directing policy to issues closer to home, agree commodities are an issue for the Aud but if we get one piece of excellent data from the US eyes will then turn back to interest rates differentials and the aussie will do its normal trick

wisconsin tim 22:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
took small short $/YEN stop above .43 if all goes well (when does that ever happen) will reverse at ~110.70-110.60

Va Raven 22:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Syd for the opinion.
But you are not thinking of Iraq, are you?

Syd 22:31 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven Coalition has reduced the A$73bn of a A$96bn debt inherited from the previous Labor govt to just now 2.9% of GDP, so you can see a Labor government has a bad reputation since the Keating years giving Australia 'The recession it had to have' . Along with the Unions obviously a continuation of Liberal Coalition is far better for the Country.

I may move if Labor get in power

ICT ML 22:30 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
AG, I just looked again after the new candles on daily and I say do not short gbp-usd for any medium term or swing trade at this time. I'll spend more time on it later and send it to you via mail.

If anything it has given a buy signal but nothing real clear yet.

Va Raven 22:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Syd 22:03 - For which party is the market favoring in terms of being possitive for aud?

ICT ML 22:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 21:26 GMT September 27, 2004

Hello AG.....I responded to your mail, thanks much.

I posted the sell GBP-USD at 1.8050 to be taken after it went sideways and the channel line held. SO far it is RIGHT on that channel line.

I told people in London session "if you are going to sell it, do it today sometime, because this is the only good R/R sell wise for the next few weeks IMHO. But this assumes the channel line holds it. Will it hold, I don't know, my other tech stuff is not real clear on it. I have left it alone until my techs are clear."

So there you have it.....I don't know

kartosuro shares adobe system 22:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
halo orang indonesia saya agang shares

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 22:11 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
US CRUDE OIL FUTURE'S HIT $50/BBL AS NIGERIA REBEL DECLARE WAR ON STATE (Reuters)

Syd 22:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
With less than two weeks before Australian voters deliver their verdict at the Oct. 9 election, the center-left Labor Party maintains a narrow lead over the ruling Liberal-National coalition, according to the latest Newspoll published Tuesday

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 22:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sorry wrong in typing:

This is my simple view abt downward trending for dollar would be show-off sooner or later. Dont know exactly...
Que sera sera, Whatever will be, will be....:)

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 21:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Brampton AR 20:16 GMT,

Sorry for answering u lately. I am still bet for Bull both of EUR, GBP and AUD againist dollar.

There are so much resistance around 1.8080, 8163 and so on... support 1.8025, 8005 and 7950. Also for Euro/$ I see a taff resistance around 1.2315-2350 (last congest), 2385 and 2430/35 area, support 1.2245, 2215 and 2165.

Interms of Oil Price spike around record high, my feeling is too risky for money-big player to Buy dollar rather than Yen, although both of ccy's are affected by Oil price. But just see the historical when US attacted gulf, the money-big player came in with a good strategy last time, it was they bought EUR and GBP at cross rate againist The Japanese, then when $/Yen too much high, the American Banks short it down for $/Yen deeply, then they shift into EUR/$ or GBP/$ nicely.

I think right now would be the same tactic, even with different formation. But I dont belive that the US can survive with a level high dollar when deficit digit giantly, industry and IT center like NASA which very depend on the energy price would much much hit by such higher in Oil Price. So, the cycle of Fed Funds rate are in overbought theritory, and it such be caused by High in CPI ect...ect.

Also from technical side, I see (specially) GBP/$ is in 4th Wave nowdays. I belive that the 5th Wave up would be applied later.

This is my simple view abt down ward tranding for dollar would be show off sooner or later. Dont know exactly...
Que sera sera, Whatever will be, will be....

LA fxnew 21:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
does anyone have prob with fxxxx?

Thanks

T.O. newbie 21:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have platform problems?(login)

Syd 21:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand Dollar Declines Amid Concern Exports May Be Crimped
Bloomberg

Global-View QIndex Special 21:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   

WELCOME BACK QINDEX SPECIAL - HALF PRICE

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London 21:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank under investigation
Germany's biggest bank - Deutsche Bank - is being investigated on suspicion it may have manipulated its balance sheet.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3693122.stm

CAIRO AG 21:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
ML// Hello, hope all is good with u...

Earlier, read one of ur posts, suggesting to short cable at 1.8050 i think.... well, any change in views & whats ur target pls if its the same??

BTW, u got mail.

Thanks

Barcelona Tony 21:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Greg, u around???????'''

bandung akbar 21:04 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
when he touch my nice number 8099......!!!!

CAIRO AG 21:02 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
CABLE couldnt break its 1.8092 high for four hours so far..... i wouldnt expect it to run much from here, iof it breaks before correcting back below 1.8050.

GL

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 21:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
the Neural network forecast called for 2329 , just 14pipz difference , not bad

Dammam A 20:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
bandung akbar HELLO
wHY? If it would happen;when?

bandung akbar 20:51 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
can make gbp to 8027...........!!!!watch this

Sydney EM 20:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Australian August Building Approvals Probably Fell 1.5%: Survey

Brampton AR 20:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi Jakarta, can you kindly give the directions for the moves you expect.

Thanks

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 20:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
US crude futures end 49.63 near record high!

watch out for the next fx movements...pls specially for AUD, CAD, also for eur and gbp

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 20:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy go to the South with happy parade..
have a nice you..
I must go home now..bye..

Dallas GEP 19:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
1.2665 I mean

Dallas GEP 19:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Marc, you and I have slightly diffrent views on usd/cad. I think it will NOT get thru that 1.2708 area which is a fib point as I remember it. If it DOES then 1.2765 probably would be absolute LOW IMO.

That neural network is NOT working all that well. It comes up with entry points that in my view are less than ideal if you look at traditional support and resistance lines.

BTW, I stopped out at BE on Euro shorts. I think YEN plays and CAD plays have much more potential

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I think this is the good time for selling gbp/jpy now..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 19:37 GMT September 27, 2004
:-)
remind you about gbp/jpy is on the counting down now..

ICT ML 19:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP...hows that neural network system doing for you, haven't seen any updates on it.

Lookiing forward to taking profit today on the $CAD shorts on a failure of 1.2680 after this 1.2700 barrier is smashed. But have the TP limit set at 1.2662 to allow for an over run if it happens.

Also went shot gbp-jpy at 201.17 for a 75-100 pip retracement in asia, but may add to the Usd-Jpy long to hedge that don't know yet.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT September 27, 2004
ok. I know like you have said in chat. :-). good !!..

dc fxq 19:37 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
alas, poor Yorick. There may be something Raden in Indonesia instead of Denmark. :)

Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RAden, my TP are usually ABOVE the support lines when going short and result in at least +30 pips so they are NOT as technical as yours

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:33 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I hope gbp/usd touch 1.8100 before down, caused by gbp/jpy touch 201.55..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:31 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:17 GMT September 27, 2004
i think more than yours. :-) 1.2256-1.2246 (move from 1.2294)..

Dallas GEP 19:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Order to SELL gbp/jpy at 201.55 is IN and waiting (like that level RADEN).

Dallas GEP 19:21 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Order to buy usd/cad @ 1.2715 is waiting with 1.2695 stop on this set

Dallas GEP 19:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Euro short stop is now @ entry...looking for 1.2263

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 19:13 GMT September 27, 2004
thanks friend for your good input.
I just only reminding them and try build themselves confidence to take action..
btw thanks verymuch allfrom you.

wisconsin tim 19:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
raden ... just a friendly suggestion ... if your post is almost the exact same rehashing of a previous post there is no need to repost it minutes apart.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:11 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
selling level usd/jpy are 110.57 or 110.74..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
clear signal in gbp/jpy about catching of 201.55..
maybe sellers are there !!!..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
friends.. its very interested with gbp/jpy when touch 201.55. I think GBP sellers parade are there..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 18:38 GMT September 27, 2004
LOL..
thanks GV for your help about clarify of Raden or not.
maybe better I will use ID Osama bin raden..LOL

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sir.. usd/chf will go to 1.2639..(top minor) or 1.2656 (top major).
move from bottom 1.2584(have done). now is on the way to get there..
take action for stop when chart show you 1.2570 (any price you will get please take !)..

Eilat Dolphin 18:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi Raden! As long as it's Raden and not Laden!...

OK SZ 18:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I just posted an interesting article on the presidential race and the likely outcome..it also explains why the rest of the world has place there bets on bush like it or not policy..get a chance read it, it's very interesting..cheers

Global-View 18:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
It is the real Raden

WASH DC SRQ 18:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:33 GMT September 27, 2004
Or you could be the ant-raden one or you could be the same one guy, raden or anti-raden or you could be really raden LOL

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:33 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sir..I am back, still fresh now.. LOL
I still remember about my joke of usd bombing buying orders..LOL

Chicago Irish 18:20 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Maybe we can send some of the CNBC crew over there.....
Word is that it was an Arab producer from CNN that was abducted in Gaza...

Eilat Dolphin 18:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
CNN: Finally they do. A few words from Ben Wedemen. Why don't they F. shout!? Interview the whole censored PA top guys etc ?
This is Munich, not news!

Eilat Dolphin 18:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
CNN is becoming like the three monkeys: after seeing all their thirteen minutes On the Hour News, not a word about their abudcted workers and the beat up of two others...

Chicago Irish 17:51 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hope that's right Eilat;then again they thought they had captured Youssouf Islam last week,the cat in that particular cradle turned out to be Yusuf Islam a.k.a.Cat Stevens......

London Jim 17:48 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Surely, that would be market moving news if confirmed?

Eilat Dolphin 17:41 GMT September 27, 2004
From Haaretz intitial report: al Zawahiri captured in Pakistan, Info 100 minutes ago. FWIW

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:48 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I see there is not much talk about the capture in Pakistan of the second in command for Bin Laden and the market is a bit weary about these reports anyway. No confirmation by US as of yet on this report. We will see how this develops in time. GL GT

Eilat Dolphin 17:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
From Haaretz intitial report: al Zawahiri captured in Pakistan, Info 100 minutes ago. FWIW

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Good comments and good to have Athens back posting. I have been busy with hurricane season one after another out here in southeast Florida but that is the price we pay to be near the waves of the sea. Not much to say about eur/usd at this time as we are still in this stalemate (Bermuda triangle). You can either play the range (1.2200-20 1.2350-60) or wait for a break out. I have a key support still around the 1.2170-80 (a sell signal) area while the key resistance is still 1.2390-2400 for further moves. Intraday indicators are bullish but running out of time, mid term is bullish and long term is bullish for now IMHO. GL GT

NYC YIPPEE 17:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Athens

Just throw the bills in the sock draw along with the papers used to enter the Euro !

Athens 17:20 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP. Yes, the Olympics came out nicely and safely. Now it's billing time for us here, oh boy...:-(

Chicago Irish 17:19 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP:Be fair,give the Games to Montreal permanently,it might help them pay off the last games held there :-)

Tor BP 17:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Athens 16:49, Thanks for the comments very appreciate your view always

Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
BTW Athens, I thought your country did a wonderful job with the olympics. I would be in favor of having it there permanently

athens kos44 17:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Athens 16:49 GMT September 27, 2004
Thanks for the comment about eur.
na eisai kala
good trading to all

wisconsin tim 17:05 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sorry had a busy weekend will continue them tonight

Polokwane SA 07:38 GMT September 27, 2004
wisconsin tim
I haven't see your levels this morning.

Athens 16:49 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tor BP, thank you, too, for your kind words. EUR/$ remains locked as we all know. my tech parameters are flat, all moving averages are congested within an extremely narrow range, there are no major medium term lines any longer (they have been violated in both directions over and again), all in all I have a very mild upwad bias but my best suggestion for the time being is to avoid riding positions and only go for fast small profits when they prrevail. Let me add that the EUR might come under some pressure by the GBP later this week and, possibly but not necessarily, it could also see a backfire on EUR/JPY if this cross fails to clear decisively 137. With US election so near now, it is hard to see EUR/$ breaking 1.1985 or 1.2465 in the few weeks left to election time. Well, anyway, a market is always a market, so never say never.

Tor BP 16:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RE: Athens 16:09 Thanks for your view for $CAD . We really appreciate it. We are glad to read your comments.

If it is possible for you, can you comments on the EUR .

Dallas GEP 16:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
C ya Viies

Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas, Keep on posting, man. Ignore the rest of the junk, it's not important.

Tallinn viies 16:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sold more euros at 1,2309. stop at 1,2369.
target 1,2140/50.
got to run, cu tommorow.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 16:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
to all my friends here.
better I am off today.
I dont want to be trouble maker here.
see u later..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 16:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 15:57 GMT September 27, 2004
LOL. thats is not soap opera I think, but my though is true usd/chf done at 1.2584 and then...? lets see,
sorry..thats only my art of speaking. try to joke little here..
thanks.

Bahrain AS 16:09 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
go long on aussie. I entered at .7140, s/l .7099, tp .7199

Athens 16:09 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
The $/CAD decline has been both impulsive and orderly for several weeks (also aided by oil prices). While even down here the pair is not short term O/S on my techs, it begins to show some signs of a medium term O/S condition. I can't rule out a test of levels around 1.2680 but for anyone who is not holding a short from higher levels this isn' the time to start selling it. 1.2810-15 remains an upside resistance.

Tallinn viies 16:04 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
IFR: 15:07 EUR/USD: Quasi-Central Bank Returns To Offer Side
fwiw

usa 16:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
anyone going short AUD/usd

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 15:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:50 GMT September 27, 2004
you are a very humble guy and non-arrogant and for that all other stuff we can ignore...keep those posts coming.

gt all

Global-View 15:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas soap opera epsiode over. Let's stick to the market rather than tweaking him.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
houston st 15:38 GMT September 27, 2004
yes I am is one who wrote here about analisis since 2 years ago..
see my level that I have posted in my first post today !!..about 1.2584..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:37 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
friends.. I inform you that usd/chf is on the high probability to move up fast after touched 1.2584.
1.2584 is the best level for buy in my system..
I suggest you to exit your selling possie and try for buy now..
let's go !!..

nyc jk 15:37 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sure GEP, not at a bank anymore so don't see them firsthand, but have friends who do sometimes, cheers.

Athens 15:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Breaking 111 $/JPY rallied as thought but bouced off its next resistance 111.45. Still in mild buy mode this pair, it isn't however a bargain to buy it now, particularly as the Yen remains short term relatively O/S v. GBP and EUR. $/CHF remains "boxy" as I said in the morning and thus suitable only for range trading within the levels I mentined.

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks JK. I know you are in a much better positon to see the actual volumes than I am. Appreciate the post.

SD tht 15:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Think these ranges will break shortly, my bet is still for a stronger dollar but I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if it takes off the other way. Just shorted Euro at 1.23, not willing to risk alot, open target.

nyc jk 15:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP - actually volumes have been decent today, but 2 sided interest thus tight ranges. was a large one off GBP buyer that the market absorbed pretty easily and been a couple large interests in the EUR, one each way.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:18 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
friends ! after touched 1.2584 maybe usd/chf move up. first target minor is 1.2615..

london 15:18 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
viies....

its a fair punt


i dont know when these ranges will break, but the longer it goes the uglier it will be when it happens, whichever way.

Dallas GEP 15:15 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Volumes are VERY thin right now. The implications are that the price action COULD swing rather dramatically if a LARGE order is taken so sometimes in a SLOW moving market you may get a FALSE sense of security that stops are not that important. PLEASE put stop at least SOMEWHERE so that if we get a runaway one of the pairs you will have some protection.

Tallinn viies 15:15 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
london 15:09 GMT - if to look at 3 months atm straddle now I would buy it next week rather than this week to cover more time from the mad year end.
last week of year has been real sucker for couple of years in row.

PAR 15:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Us banks are advising to buy commodities not stocks. That should be postive for AUD.

Genoa nic 15:12 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Viies,
it could be only a coincidence, but given the high attention on yields maybe someone noticed latest spike on 10y futures, which briefly cleared 61.8 of the post FOMC minutes selloff and seem posed to test highs, IMVHO. The rejection from 1.2350 occurred post FOMC minutes too…. Right now 10y a few ticks below today’s high (113,5625 15 min ago) exactly on 61.8 at 113,4862 FWIW

london 15:09 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
maybe but at some stage the market will get too complacent that the range will hold and the break will come and be very ugly....could be today or 6 mths away, who knows.

vol falling as so many people putting in DNT plays.

Tallinn viies 15:05 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
as long as impl volatilities keep falling no range break out seen. sell high and buy low :)

london 15:04 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
aud...care gents..

treasury yields are falling

copper and other metals are rising

oil is rising

cad is rising


doesnt look like a big picture scenario where aud will fall dramatically to me.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 15:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Notes to myself: EUR/USD my thoughts: 1.2369 major resistance. However, a move to 1.2239 would be better first. 1.2400 is what i have targeted which I mentioned earlier this week.

gt everyone!

TIA:-)

Pecs Andras 15:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
What a strange day... I have not seen cable trading in a 60 pip range for the day for ages.
The normal trading range per day is well over 100 pips. Something must be brewing in the background.

Tallinn viies 15:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 14:50 GMT - thnks. I heard this one earlier in the morning.
all right, whatever. sell side is still more attractive for me.
good luck , cu

wisconsin tim 14:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B
That's the only thing I dislike about selling aud ... it just seems too easy/obvious and there's an alarm going off in my head screaming ... "warning!!warning!!"
gl with it,
=)

Antwerp Tom 14:50 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Viies, rumours of G7 letting $ go at next meeting fwiw

Tacoma A B 14:50 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
London Jim:
Yeah, I'm going to set my stop loss on this one, and take a little break from the computer. Watching most every move of a most likely multi-day hold can't be healthy. Its nap time. And Yeah, I agree totally on the .7170. This trade is about as straight forward as they come, but you nailed it, I'm over-exposed to it. I'm really playing with almost no money, so when I go in something, I go all the way in pretty much. I know that's not good, but I'm at a learning stage, and I need to learn to handle my nerves when things move sideways or against the direction I'm trading.

Antwerp Tom 14:45 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Yes Viies, i just went short...LOL GL GT

Tallinn viies 14:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
whats up? anything behind this euro move?

Dallas GEP 14:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
WELL Aud/USD will go where AUD/JPY goes generally in same direction of course so based on that I would say AUSSIE IS a decent short at this level BUT I do agree 7170 is key.

FALLS PB 14:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 14:14 GMT - PPT???

London Jim 14:33 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B, you seem to be fretting too much over this position. I can only imagine that you are severely over exposed. Hence, I would suggest either cut it to a more reasonable level, or get out of the position all together. If you need reassurance about if you have done the right thing, then check out the 4hr and 8hr charts. Of course, the daily trendline is still intact. If it breaks over .7170 then cut it.

BTW, if you can't tell I still favour it going down this week. Famous last words!

Indonesia-Solo RadenMas 14:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
still no respone in usd/chf when touch 1.2600. maybe when at 1.2584 usd buyers will come..

PAR 14:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan keeps pumping money in the economy, that helps the hedge funds which buy crude oil and other commodities with cheap money due to artificially low interest rates. Good for the financial economy but a disaster for the real economy and unemployment.

Dallas GEP 14:25 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Took euro short 1.2293

Tacoma A B 14:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
On Aussie Dollar, is the concensus that its still heading down this week? I still feel so, but we had a couple chances to make some runs south, and didn't do it. I'm just getting apprehensive I'm sure. Opinions on this one?

Ltn th 14:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Falls PB, Would your comments apply to the actions of the semi-mythical PPT?

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
BAhrain...I agree...however....at thios time I think the probability is HIGHER for usd/jpy to long FURTHER than eur/jpy or gbp/jpy because I believe BOTH eur/usd and gbp/usd could short. So in effect I guess I am saying reistance is STRONGER on eur/jpy and gbp/jpy pairs

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:12 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Most likely 108.7 then 12.54

PAR 14:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Too low interest rates lead to too much speculation in commodities and to economic slowdown.

Indonesia-Solo RadenMas 14:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Wibawa_Id 13:28 GMT September 27, 2004
sorry. I mean 0.7199 (not 0.7799). LOL..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
yen ...very tough call

hk ab 14:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
viies// thanks
and others too.
Off now, since eur/jpy didn't hit 137 in the last attack...
put another limit @ a level to short dlr/jpy above 111.50.

FALLS PB 14:05 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
US Jul New Home Sales Revised To 1.082M From 1.134M
US Aug New Home Sales +9.4% To 1.184M; Est. 1.150M

Its a yawner...nobody cares to pop usd

Dallas GEP 14:02 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
To a limited extent...crude can be affected from an intervention aspect indirectly. Last week for instance US announced because of delivery problems with crude because of the affect of hurricane weather, they were releasing some of the oil from the startegic oil reserves. With that annoucement, USD did long slightly. OPEC's production agreements also can affect of course oil supply which affects currencies of course.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 13:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew

I m Long in GBP/$ with STP 1.8015 for today, T/P 1.8120
GL!

FALLS PB 13:56 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 13:52 the only intervention for commodities is on the exchanges themselves when daily limits are hit.

Dallas GEP 13:56 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RE: gbp/jpy target is 200.20. Anyone that trades it for any length of time will at one time or another have some bad luck with it. Resistance and support points are generally about 60 pips apart. It can make you ALOT of money and it can LOSE you alot of money. NEVER boring. False breaks and over runs occurr consistently. At times DIRECTIONALLY it is like trying to judge the path of some of our Hurricanes.

LA fxnew 13:55 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
cable is moving up and down irregularly ..
can anyone suggest its target for today?

thanks

Tallinn viies 13:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 13:52 - no

Tallinn viies 13:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
1,2290/95 high from Asia could contain this move. if not then 1,2315/20 next resistance where selling adviced

hk ab 13:52 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
An interesting question:
Can crude be interevened like currencies? by joint CB actions?.....

Budapest Daniel 13:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, what is your target on gbp/jpy? I think I'll take your advice not to play with this pair... I've got some bad experience with it. :-/

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
For the newbies.....high oil prices affect the YEN more than most others INCLUDING USD because they import ALL their oil. YEN pairs will have a tendancy to long with higher oil prices.

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
For the newbies.....high oil prices affect the YEN more than most others INCLUDING USD because they import ALL their oil. YEN pairs will have a tendancy to long with higher oil prices.

hk jc 13:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
alimin, if 111.50 brks i could see 112 level just around the corner, do you agree with me.

Calabash TarHeel 13:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:29 GMT September 27, 2004
Fwiw: Suspect you could be right. Allowing for the last 7 sessions of the Nekki, price of crude trying to punch thru $50 and Jap data expectations, yen selling may continue for awhile yet. Imvho.
gl,gt

Dallas GEP 13:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RE: gbp/jpy That pair has a VERY bad habit of over running resistance levels and THEN pulling back sharply. AGAIN,,,a VERY dangerous pair. MOST should NOT play.

In Short @ 201.20 on GBP/JPY (see above)

Budapest Daniel 13:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your opinions guys!

hk jc 13:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
alimin, i agree with you, if 111.50 i see 112 just around the corner.

GER ad 13:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 13:26,
JPY crosses are too high IMHO and we may close below actual levels (136.70 ; 201.15...), but I don't think that we have seen already the top for today. GL!

Tallinn viies 13:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
it wouldnt be bad idea to try short side of the eurusd pair.
would be easy to move back down to 1,21 within next 48 hours. important to keep stop over 1,2370.
not bad to short it step by step.
imho

hk ab 13:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
It would be disappointing if eur/jpy can't reach 137 today....

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 13:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin

agree with u abt Yen. I just wait untill the momentum go for diving, then .....I jump in...LMAO

Sydney Alimin 13:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
be careful guys, it happened a lot on the day when everyone seems to be expecting the same thing it could never happen...usd/yen just broke into 111 today after several prior sessions consolidation...watch out for more upside

CAIRO AG 13:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Daniel: Could stop before 201.30 or, if $Y breaks the high here, couould make another 150 pips run IMVHO.

GL

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 13:28 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
radeeen...

what do u think if gold touched 411.70 impact on AUD/$ around 0.71 or 0.77(??)

Budapest Daniel 13:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
i went short on gbp/jpy @ 200.91 although seems a little bit early... i hope it won't rise too much later... can anyone predict its target for later today?

Dallas GEP 13:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
NOPE WC, I took profit BUT I still like that possie from there.

Almere wjm 13:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Ger, thanks for your response. I'm not aware if broker changes. So I hoped to find an explenation here.

Ldn Robert 13:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
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Dallas GEP 13:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
This could be ONE of the reversal points on some of YEN pairs (no guarantees!!! LOL). 111.40 on USD/JPY and 201.20 on GBP/JPY (reversals going back short from here I mean)

QC WC 13:21 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, are you still holding short Euro at 1.2290?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
because of gold 411.70, maybe aud/usd will up to get 0.7175 or 0.7799 before move down fast together..

Dallas GEP 13:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Some may ask why Euro is going long same time that USD/JPY is going long. Well YEN is being sold across the board now so it is a YEN play for now. All yen pairs are longing because of it.

hk ab 13:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
entered dlr/jpy short.

GER ad 13:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Almere wjm 13:01,
Check with your broker if they have change the margin requirement for your acount (because market condition or...).
GL.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
gold is ideal if touch 411.70 before move down fast..
sell there !!..

Almere wjm 13:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hello, I received a margin call warning on my mini share trading account. I have just 3 1 lot positions running. The report indicate I need 150 margin and I have 810 margin space. Can anyone explain to me why I receive the warning?

Thank you in advance

TeamWork

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
also usd/chf seen will get 1.2600 before go up..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hello friends..
is good for selling eur/usd if touch 1.2277
I hope you are ready..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
London Tom 12:44 GMT September 27, 2004
IFR Forex watch just went long USD/YEN at 111.23
S/L 110.65 target end of week 112.50

//
Gurenteed That stop will be hit

London Tom 12:44 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
IFR Forex watch just went long USD/YEN at 111.23
S/L 110.65 target end of week 112.50

hk ab 12:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
747//I am with you on the yen wagon... my order 111.30 and eur/jpy 137 with cheap stop.
The moon is coming...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
cable 8073

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