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Forex Forum Archive for 09/27/2004

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ICT ML 23:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Athens...thanks much for responding. Being long from 109.85 I have to decide whether I cover it going into the weekend regardless if targets hit or not. I was absolutely hammered the first few hours after G7 last year and don't desire to repeat that fiasco again.

But I think 115 is realistic target if oil stays in high $40's or breaks $50 (which I suspect there will be anonymous fierce resistance) if I was in charge in an election year there would be anyway.......

LA fxnew 23:56 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Looks like cable will fly to 83xx

what do you think guys?

Athens 23:47 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP and Toronto, you are talking the same price, one mantions bid and the other offered side.

ML, I think those Tokyo guys are more interested in the price to print for their fiscal half year end for their books than than for the G-7 at present.

Dallas GEP 23:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Toronto in US seesion my platform saw 1.2708

Toronto 23:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP. It didn't bounce off 1.2708. 1.2713 was the low offer.

Jakarta r4v3n 23:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
btw, I also got off the cable a little bit too early yesterday (mine was 1.8040). from 1.7930.

Jakarta r4v3n 23:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va raven...thank's..
I still remember that u always made great calls on cable. Currently, I played stock index and forex on and off....tia

Dallas GEP 23:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RE: USD/CAD Actually while 1.2680 is a support point so is 1.2708 (a fib point) and so is 1.2700. It bounced off 1.2708 earlier today.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 23:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Calgary MS

The only critical support is around 1.2680 area. If break, downfall is on the table!

I prefer to short $/Cad around 1.2725 area, with STP 1.2740 for T/P around 1.2680 area or bellow (prefered) .

GL!

ICT ML 23:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Any of you long time Yen guys like ArtofYen think there is a chance of BOJ bidding up $YEN as high as it can going into the G7 so they can let it go from higher levels....like 115 same as last year?

Va Raven 23:20 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi, Jakarta Raven, long time no C...... just want to say one more time that I do feel sorry to accidentally steal your forum handle.
Re Cable, I did see it running over 1.81 last week (I got out at 1.8051), but somewhat feel it's a little bit ahead of itself. It really depends on how high eur/usd could go this time, 1.2470 in eur/usd, we have no option but a high 1.82 cable is set to see. Otherwise failure again at 1.2345, cable 1.8145 is a good sell too.
Sorry for not having a straight view.

Dallas GEP 23:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Ok got 1.2715 LONGS in now on USD/CAD, 201.55 has NOT been hit yet on BID on gbp/jpy so I am not yet in SHORT on that pair

Calgary MS 23:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I see no one is talking of usd/cad does anyone see anything positive in the very near future.I am currently long here see
that it is 1.2711 I know there was a bollinger cross but not sure what to expect will oil and gold rising anyone have some answers. Thank You in Advance

Jakarta r4v3n 23:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven....do u have any thought for gbp/usd??
thanks. Btw, does anyone know if china going to increase their interest rates or not?

Va Raven 23:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Syd, thanks again for teh view. I was kidding about the Iraq after read your tease - " may move if Labor get in power". Cheers!

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 22:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
kartosuro
hello jg

welcome and GL!

CAIRO AG 22:54 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
ML// Thanks my friend.

Syd 22:48 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven just a point though, any dip between 68 and 70 I would be a buyer of the Aud

Syd 22:47 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven Iraq is an ongoing problem and here they are directing policy to issues closer to home, agree commodities are an issue for the Aud but if we get one piece of excellent data from the US eyes will then turn back to interest rates differentials and the aussie will do its normal trick

wisconsin tim 22:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
took small short $/YEN stop above .43 if all goes well (when does that ever happen) will reverse at ~110.70-110.60

Va Raven 22:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Syd for the opinion.
But you are not thinking of Iraq, are you?

Syd 22:31 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven Coalition has reduced the A$73bn of a A$96bn debt inherited from the previous Labor govt to just now 2.9% of GDP, so you can see a Labor government has a bad reputation since the Keating years giving Australia 'The recession it had to have' . Along with the Unions obviously a continuation of Liberal Coalition is far better for the Country.

I may move if Labor get in power

ICT ML 22:30 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
AG, I just looked again after the new candles on daily and I say do not short gbp-usd for any medium term or swing trade at this time. I'll spend more time on it later and send it to you via mail.

If anything it has given a buy signal but nothing real clear yet.

Va Raven 22:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Syd 22:03 - For which party is the market favoring in terms of being possitive for aud?

ICT ML 22:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 21:26 GMT September 27, 2004

Hello AG.....I responded to your mail, thanks much.

I posted the sell GBP-USD at 1.8050 to be taken after it went sideways and the channel line held. SO far it is RIGHT on that channel line.

I told people in London session "if you are going to sell it, do it today sometime, because this is the only good R/R sell wise for the next few weeks IMHO. But this assumes the channel line holds it. Will it hold, I don't know, my other tech stuff is not real clear on it. I have left it alone until my techs are clear."

So there you have it.....I don't know

kartosuro shares adobe system 22:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
halo orang indonesia saya agang shares

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 22:11 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
US CRUDE OIL FUTURE'S HIT $50/BBL AS NIGERIA REBEL DECLARE WAR ON STATE (Reuters)

Syd 22:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
With less than two weeks before Australian voters deliver their verdict at the Oct. 9 election, the center-left Labor Party maintains a narrow lead over the ruling Liberal-National coalition, according to the latest Newspoll published Tuesday

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 22:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sorry wrong in typing:

This is my simple view abt downward trending for dollar would be show-off sooner or later. Dont know exactly...
Que sera sera, Whatever will be, will be....:)

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 21:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Brampton AR 20:16 GMT,

Sorry for answering u lately. I am still bet for Bull both of EUR, GBP and AUD againist dollar.

There are so much resistance around 1.8080, 8163 and so on... support 1.8025, 8005 and 7950. Also for Euro/$ I see a taff resistance around 1.2315-2350 (last congest), 2385 and 2430/35 area, support 1.2245, 2215 and 2165.

Interms of Oil Price spike around record high, my feeling is too risky for money-big player to Buy dollar rather than Yen, although both of ccy's are affected by Oil price. But just see the historical when US attacted gulf, the money-big player came in with a good strategy last time, it was they bought EUR and GBP at cross rate againist The Japanese, then when $/Yen too much high, the American Banks short it down for $/Yen deeply, then they shift into EUR/$ or GBP/$ nicely.

I think right now would be the same tactic, even with different formation. But I dont belive that the US can survive with a level high dollar when deficit digit giantly, industry and IT center like NASA which very depend on the energy price would much much hit by such higher in Oil Price. So, the cycle of Fed Funds rate are in overbought theritory, and it such be caused by High in CPI ect...ect.

Also from technical side, I see (specially) GBP/$ is in 4th Wave nowdays. I belive that the 5th Wave up would be applied later.

This is my simple view abt down ward tranding for dollar would be show off sooner or later. Dont know exactly...
Que sera sera, Whatever will be, will be....

LA fxnew 21:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
does anyone have prob with fxxxx?

Thanks

T.O. newbie 21:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have platform problems?(login)

Syd 21:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand Dollar Declines Amid Concern Exports May Be Crimped
Bloomberg

Global-View QIndex Special 21:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   

WELCOME BACK QINDEX SPECIAL - HALF PRICE

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London 21:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank under investigation
Germany's biggest bank - Deutsche Bank - is being investigated on suspicion it may have manipulated its balance sheet.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3693122.stm

CAIRO AG 21:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
ML// Hello, hope all is good with u...

Earlier, read one of ur posts, suggesting to short cable at 1.8050 i think.... well, any change in views & whats ur target pls if its the same??

BTW, u got mail.

Thanks

Barcelona Tony 21:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Greg, u around???????'''

bandung akbar 21:04 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
when he touch my nice number 8099......!!!!

CAIRO AG 21:02 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
CABLE couldnt break its 1.8092 high for four hours so far..... i wouldnt expect it to run much from here, iof it breaks before correcting back below 1.8050.

GL

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 21:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
the Neural network forecast called for 2329 , just 14pipz difference , not bad

Dammam A 20:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
bandung akbar HELLO
wHY? If it would happen;when?

bandung akbar 20:51 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
can make gbp to 8027...........!!!!watch this

Brampton AR 20:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi Jakarta, can you kindly give the directions for the moves you expect.

Thanks

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 20:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
US crude futures end 49.63 near record high!

watch out for the next fx movements...pls specially for AUD, CAD, also for eur and gbp

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 20:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy go to the South with happy parade..
have a nice you..
I must go home now..bye..

Dallas GEP 19:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
1.2665 I mean

Dallas GEP 19:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Marc, you and I have slightly diffrent views on usd/cad. I think it will NOT get thru that 1.2708 area which is a fib point as I remember it. If it DOES then 1.2765 probably would be absolute LOW IMO.

That neural network is NOT working all that well. It comes up with entry points that in my view are less than ideal if you look at traditional support and resistance lines.

BTW, I stopped out at BE on Euro shorts. I think YEN plays and CAD plays have much more potential

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I think this is the good time for selling gbp/jpy now..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 19:37 GMT September 27, 2004
:-)
remind you about gbp/jpy is on the counting down now..

ICT ML 19:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP...hows that neural network system doing for you, haven't seen any updates on it.

Lookiing forward to taking profit today on the $CAD shorts on a failure of 1.2680 after this 1.2700 barrier is smashed. But have the TP limit set at 1.2662 to allow for an over run if it happens.

Also went shot gbp-jpy at 201.17 for a 75-100 pip retracement in asia, but may add to the Usd-Jpy long to hedge that don't know yet.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT September 27, 2004
ok. I know like you have said in chat. :-). good !!..

dc fxq 19:37 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
alas, poor Yorick. There may be something Raden in Indonesia instead of Denmark. :)

Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RAden, my TP are usually ABOVE the support lines when going short and result in at least +30 pips so they are NOT as technical as yours

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:33 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I hope gbp/usd touch 1.8100 before down, caused by gbp/jpy touch 201.55..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:31 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:17 GMT September 27, 2004
i think more than yours. :-) 1.2256-1.2246 (move from 1.2294)..

Dallas GEP 19:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Order to SELL gbp/jpy at 201.55 is IN and waiting (like that level RADEN).

Dallas GEP 19:21 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Order to buy usd/cad @ 1.2715 is waiting with 1.2695 stop on this set

Dallas GEP 19:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Euro short stop is now @ entry...looking for 1.2263

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 19:13 GMT September 27, 2004
thanks friend for your good input.
I just only reminding them and try build themselves confidence to take action..
btw thanks verymuch allfrom you.

wisconsin tim 19:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
raden ... just a friendly suggestion ... if your post is almost the exact same rehashing of a previous post there is no need to repost it minutes apart.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:11 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
selling level usd/jpy are 110.57 or 110.74..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 19:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
clear signal in gbp/jpy about catching of 201.55..
maybe sellers are there !!!..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
friends.. its very interested with gbp/jpy when touch 201.55. I think GBP sellers parade are there..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 18:38 GMT September 27, 2004
LOL..
thanks GV for your help about clarify of Raden or not.
maybe better I will use ID Osama bin raden..LOL

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sir.. usd/chf will go to 1.2639..(top minor) or 1.2656 (top major).
move from bottom 1.2584(have done). now is on the way to get there..
take action for stop when chart show you 1.2570 (any price you will get please take !)..

Eilat Dolphin 18:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi Raden! As long as it's Raden and not Laden!...

OK SZ 18:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I just posted an interesting article on the presidential race and the likely outcome..it also explains why the rest of the world has place there bets on bush like it or not policy..get a chance read it, it's very interesting..cheers

Global-View 18:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
It is the real Raden

WASH DC SRQ 18:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:33 GMT September 27, 2004
Or you could be the ant-raden one or you could be the same one guy, raden or anti-raden or you could be really raden LOL

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:33 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sir..I am back, still fresh now.. LOL
I still remember about my joke of usd bombing buying orders..LOL

Chicago Irish 18:20 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Maybe we can send some of the CNBC crew over there.....
Word is that it was an Arab producer from CNN that was abducted in Gaza...

Eilat Dolphin 18:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
CNN: Finally they do. A few words from Ben Wedemen. Why don't they F. shout!? Interview the whole censored PA top guys etc ?
This is Munich, not news!

Eilat Dolphin 18:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
CNN is becoming like the three monkeys: after seeing all their thirteen minutes On the Hour News, not a word about their abudcted workers and the beat up of two others...

Chicago Irish 17:51 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hope that's right Eilat;then again they thought they had captured Youssouf Islam last week,the cat in that particular cradle turned out to be Yusuf Islam a.k.a.Cat Stevens......

London Jim 17:48 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Surely, that would be market moving news if confirmed?

Eilat Dolphin 17:41 GMT September 27, 2004
From Haaretz intitial report: al Zawahiri captured in Pakistan, Info 100 minutes ago. FWIW


Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:48 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I see there is not much talk about the capture in Pakistan of the second in command for Bin Laden and the market is a bit weary about these reports anyway. No confirmation by US as of yet on this report. We will see how this develops in time. GL GT

Eilat Dolphin 17:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
From Haaretz intitial report: al Zawahiri captured in Pakistan, Info 100 minutes ago. FWIW

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Good comments and good to have Athens back posting. I have been busy with hurricane season one after another out here in southeast Florida but that is the price we pay to be near the waves of the sea. Not much to say about eur/usd at this time as we are still in this stalemate (Bermuda triangle). You can either play the range (1.2200-20 1.2350-60) or wait for a break out. I have a key support still around the 1.2170-80 (a sell signal) area while the key resistance is still 1.2390-2400 for further moves. Intraday indicators are bullish but running out of time, mid term is bullish and long term is bullish for now IMHO. GL GT

NYC YIPPEE 17:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Athens

Just throw the bills in the sock draw along with the papers used to enter the Euro !

Athens 17:20 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP. Yes, the Olympics came out nicely and safely. Now it's billing time for us here, oh boy...:-(

Chicago Irish 17:19 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP:Be fair,give the Games to Montreal permanently,it might help them pay off the last games held there :-)

Tor BP 17:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Athens 16:49, Thanks for the comments very appreciate your view always

Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
BTW Athens, I thought your country did a wonderful job with the olympics. I would be in favor of having it there permanently

athens kos44 17:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Athens 16:49 GMT September 27, 2004
Thanks for the comment about eur.
na eisai kala
good trading to all

wisconsin tim 17:05 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sorry had a busy weekend will continue them tonight

Polokwane SA 07:38 GMT September 27, 2004
wisconsin tim
I haven't see your levels this morning.

Athens 16:49 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tor BP, thank you, too, for your kind words. EUR/$ remains locked as we all know. my tech parameters are flat, all moving averages are congested within an extremely narrow range, there are no major medium term lines any longer (they have been violated in both directions over and again), all in all I have a very mild upwad bias but my best suggestion for the time being is to avoid riding positions and only go for fast small profits when they prrevail. Let me add that the EUR might come under some pressure by the GBP later this week and, possibly but not necessarily, it could also see a backfire on EUR/JPY if this cross fails to clear decisively 137. With US election so near now, it is hard to see EUR/$ breaking 1.1985 or 1.2465 in the few weeks left to election time. Well, anyway, a market is always a market, so never say never.

Tor BP 16:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RE: Athens 16:09 Thanks for your view for $CAD . We really appreciate it. We are glad to read your comments.

If it is possible for you, can you comments on the EUR .

Dallas GEP 16:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
C ya Viies

Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas, Keep on posting, man. Ignore the rest of the junk, it's not important.

Tallinn viies 16:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sold more euros at 1,2309. stop at 1,2369.
target 1,2140/50.
got to run, cu tommorow.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 16:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
to all my friends here.
better I am off today.
I dont want to be trouble maker here.
see u later..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 16:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 15:57 GMT September 27, 2004
LOL. thats is not soap opera I think, but my though is true usd/chf done at 1.2584 and then...? lets see,
sorry..thats only my art of speaking. try to joke little here..
thanks.

Bahrain AS 16:09 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
go long on aussie. I entered at .7140, s/l .7099, tp .7199

Athens 16:09 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
The $/CAD decline has been both impulsive and orderly for several weeks (also aided by oil prices). While even down here the pair is not short term O/S on my techs, it begins to show some signs of a medium term O/S condition. I can't rule out a test of levels around 1.2680 but for anyone who is not holding a short from higher levels this isn' the time to start selling it. 1.2810-15 remains an upside resistance.

Tallinn viies 16:04 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
IFR: 15:07 EUR/USD: Quasi-Central Bank Returns To Offer Side
fwiw

usa 16:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
anyone going short AUD/usd

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 15:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:50 GMT September 27, 2004
you are a very humble guy and non-arrogant and for that all other stuff we can ignore...keep those posts coming.

gt all

Global-View 15:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas soap opera epsiode over. Let's stick to the market rather than tweaking him.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
houston st 15:38 GMT September 27, 2004
yes I am is one who wrote here about analisis since 2 years ago..
see my level that I have posted in my first post today !!..about 1.2584..

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:37 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
friends.. I inform you that usd/chf is on the high probability to move up fast after touched 1.2584.
1.2584 is the best level for buy in my system..
I suggest you to exit your selling possie and try for buy now..
let's go !!..

nyc jk 15:37 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sure GEP, not at a bank anymore so don't see them firsthand, but have friends who do sometimes, cheers.

Athens 15:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Breaking 111 $/JPY rallied as thought but bouced off its next resistance 111.45. Still in mild buy mode this pair, it isn't however a bargain to buy it now, particularly as the Yen remains short term relatively O/S v. GBP and EUR. $/CHF remains "boxy" as I said in the morning and thus suitable only for range trading within the levels I mentined.

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks JK. I know you are in a much better positon to see the actual volumes than I am. Appreciate the post.

SD tht 15:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Think these ranges will break shortly, my bet is still for a stronger dollar but I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if it takes off the other way. Just shorted Euro at 1.23, not willing to risk alot, open target.

nyc jk 15:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP - actually volumes have been decent today, but 2 sided interest thus tight ranges. was a large one off GBP buyer that the market absorbed pretty easily and been a couple large interests in the EUR, one each way.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:18 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
friends ! after touched 1.2584 maybe usd/chf move up. first target minor is 1.2615..

london 15:18 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
viies....

its a fair punt


i dont know when these ranges will break, but the longer it goes the uglier it will be when it happens, whichever way.

Dallas GEP 15:15 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Volumes are VERY thin right now. The implications are that the price action COULD swing rather dramatically if a LARGE order is taken so sometimes in a SLOW moving market you may get a FALSE sense of security that stops are not that important. PLEASE put stop at least SOMEWHERE so that if we get a runaway one of the pairs you will have some protection.

Tallinn viies 15:15 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
london 15:09 GMT - if to look at 3 months atm straddle now I would buy it next week rather than this week to cover more time from the mad year end.
last week of year has been real sucker for couple of years in row.

PAR 15:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Us banks are advising to buy commodities not stocks. That should be postive for AUD.

Genoa nic 15:12 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Viies,
it could be only a coincidence, but given the high attention on yields maybe someone noticed latest spike on 10y futures, which briefly cleared 61.8 of the post FOMC minutes selloff and seem posed to test highs, IMVHO. The rejection from 1.2350 occurred post FOMC minutes too…. Right now 10y a few ticks below today’s high (113,5625 15 min ago) exactly on 61.8 at 113,4862 FWIW

london 15:09 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
maybe but at some stage the market will get too complacent that the range will hold and the break will come and be very ugly....could be today or 6 mths away, who knows.

vol falling as so many people putting in DNT plays.

Tallinn viies 15:05 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
as long as impl volatilities keep falling no range break out seen. sell high and buy low :)

london 15:04 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
aud...care gents..

treasury yields are falling

copper and other metals are rising

oil is rising

cad is rising


doesnt look like a big picture scenario where aud will fall dramatically to me.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 15:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Notes to myself: EUR/USD my thoughts: 1.2369 major resistance. However, a move to 1.2239 would be better first. 1.2400 is what i have targeted which I mentioned earlier this week.

gt everyone!

TIA:-)

Pecs Andras 15:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
What a strange day... I have not seen cable trading in a 60 pip range for the day for ages.
The normal trading range per day is well over 100 pips. Something must be brewing in the background.

Tallinn viies 15:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 14:50 GMT - thnks. I heard this one earlier in the morning.
all right, whatever. sell side is still more attractive for me.
good luck , cu

wisconsin tim 14:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B
That's the only thing I dislike about selling aud ... it just seems too easy/obvious and there's an alarm going off in my head screaming ... "warning!!warning!!"
gl with it,
=)

Antwerp Tom 14:50 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Viies, rumours of G7 letting $ go at next meeting fwiw

Tacoma A B 14:50 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
London Jim:
Yeah, I'm going to set my stop loss on this one, and take a little break from the computer. Watching most every move of a most likely multi-day hold can't be healthy. Its nap time. And Yeah, I agree totally on the .7170. This trade is about as straight forward as they come, but you nailed it, I'm over-exposed to it. I'm really playing with almost no money, so when I go in something, I go all the way in pretty much. I know that's not good, but I'm at a learning stage, and I need to learn to handle my nerves when things move sideways or against the direction I'm trading.

Antwerp Tom 14:45 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Yes Viies, i just went short...LOL GL GT

Tallinn viies 14:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
whats up? anything behind this euro move?

Dallas GEP 14:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
WELL Aud/USD will go where AUD/JPY goes generally in same direction of course so based on that I would say AUSSIE IS a decent short at this level BUT I do agree 7170 is key.

FALLS PB 14:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 14:14 GMT - PPT???

London Jim 14:33 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B, you seem to be fretting too much over this position. I can only imagine that you are severely over exposed. Hence, I would suggest either cut it to a more reasonable level, or get out of the position all together. If you need reassurance about if you have done the right thing, then check out the 4hr and 8hr charts. Of course, the daily trendline is still intact. If it breaks over .7170 then cut it.

BTW, if you can't tell I still favour it going down this week. Famous last words!

Indonesia-Solo RadenMas 14:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
still no respone in usd/chf when touch 1.2600. maybe when at 1.2584 usd buyers will come..

PAR 14:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan keeps pumping money in the economy, that helps the hedge funds which buy crude oil and other commodities with cheap money due to artificially low interest rates. Good for the financial economy but a disaster for the real economy and unemployment.

Dallas GEP 14:25 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Took euro short 1.2293

Tacoma A B 14:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
On Aussie Dollar, is the concensus that its still heading down this week? I still feel so, but we had a couple chances to make some runs south, and didn't do it. I'm just getting apprehensive I'm sure. Opinions on this one?

Ltn th 14:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Falls PB, Would your comments apply to the actions of the semi-mythical PPT?

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
BAhrain...I agree...however....at thios time I think the probability is HIGHER for usd/jpy to long FURTHER than eur/jpy or gbp/jpy because I believe BOTH eur/usd and gbp/usd could short. So in effect I guess I am saying reistance is STRONGER on eur/jpy and gbp/jpy pairs

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:12 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Most likely 108.7 then 12.54

PAR 14:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Too low interest rates lead to too much speculation in commodities and to economic slowdown.

Indonesia-Solo RadenMas 14:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Wibawa_Id 13:28 GMT September 27, 2004
sorry. I mean 0.7199 (not 0.7799). LOL..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
yen ...very tough call

hk ab 14:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
viies// thanks
and others too.
Off now, since eur/jpy didn't hit 137 in the last attack...
put another limit @ a level to short dlr/jpy above 111.50.

FALLS PB 14:05 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
US Jul New Home Sales Revised To 1.082M From 1.134M
US Aug New Home Sales +9.4% To 1.184M; Est. 1.150M

Its a yawner...nobody cares to pop usd

Dallas GEP 14:02 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
To a limited extent...crude can be affected from an intervention aspect indirectly. Last week for instance US announced because of delivery problems with crude because of the affect of hurricane weather, they were releasing some of the oil from the startegic oil reserves. With that annoucement, USD did long slightly. OPEC's production agreements also can affect of course oil supply which affects currencies of course.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 13:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew

I m Long in GBP/$ with STP 1.8015 for today, T/P 1.8120
GL!

FALLS PB 13:56 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 13:52 the only intervention for commodities is on the exchanges themselves when daily limits are hit.

Dallas GEP 13:56 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RE: gbp/jpy target is 200.20. Anyone that trades it for any length of time will at one time or another have some bad luck with it. Resistance and support points are generally about 60 pips apart. It can make you ALOT of money and it can LOSE you alot of money. NEVER boring. False breaks and over runs occurr consistently. At times DIRECTIONALLY it is like trying to judge the path of some of our Hurricanes.

LA fxnew 13:55 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
cable is moving up and down irregularly ..
can anyone suggest its target for today?

thanks

Tallinn viies 13:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 13:52 - no

Tallinn viies 13:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
1,2290/95 high from Asia could contain this move. if not then 1,2315/20 next resistance where selling adviced

hk ab 13:52 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
An interesting question:
Can crude be interevened like currencies? by joint CB actions?.....

Budapest Daniel 13:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, what is your target on gbp/jpy? I think I'll take your advice not to play with this pair... I've got some bad experience with it. :-/

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
For the newbies.....high oil prices affect the YEN more than most others INCLUDING USD because they import ALL their oil. YEN pairs will have a tendancy to long with higher oil prices.

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
For the newbies.....high oil prices affect the YEN more than most others INCLUDING USD because they import ALL their oil. YEN pairs will have a tendancy to long with higher oil prices.

hk jc 13:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
alimin, if 111.50 brks i could see 112 level just around the corner, do you agree with me.

Calabash TarHeel 13:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:29 GMT September 27, 2004
Fwiw: Suspect you could be right. Allowing for the last 7 sessions of the Nekki, price of crude trying to punch thru $50 and Jap data expectations, yen selling may continue for awhile yet. Imvho.
gl,gt

Dallas GEP 13:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RE: gbp/jpy That pair has a VERY bad habit of over running resistance levels and THEN pulling back sharply. AGAIN,,,a VERY dangerous pair. MOST should NOT play.

In Short @ 201.20 on GBP/JPY (see above)

Budapest Daniel 13:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your opinions guys!

hk jc 13:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
alimin, i agree with you, if 111.50 i see 112 just around the corner.

GER ad 13:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 13:26,
JPY crosses are too high IMHO and we may close below actual levels (136.70 ; 201.15...), but I don't think that we have seen already the top for today. GL!

Tallinn viies 13:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
it wouldnt be bad idea to try short side of the eurusd pair.
would be easy to move back down to 1,21 within next 48 hours. important to keep stop over 1,2370.
not bad to short it step by step.
imho

hk ab 13:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
It would be disappointing if eur/jpy can't reach 137 today....

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 13:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin

agree with u abt Yen. I just wait untill the momentum go for diving, then .....I jump in...LMAO

Sydney Alimin 13:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
be careful guys, it happened a lot on the day when everyone seems to be expecting the same thing it could never happen...usd/yen just broke into 111 today after several prior sessions consolidation...watch out for more upside

CAIRO AG 13:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Daniel: Could stop before 201.30 or, if $Y breaks the high here, couould make another 150 pips run IMVHO.

GL

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 13:28 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
radeeen...

what do u think if gold touched 411.70 impact on AUD/$ around 0.71 or 0.77(??)

Budapest Daniel 13:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
i went short on gbp/jpy @ 200.91 although seems a little bit early... i hope it won't rise too much later... can anyone predict its target for later today?

Dallas GEP 13:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
NOPE WC, I took profit BUT I still like that possie from there.

Almere wjm 13:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Ger, thanks for your response. I'm not aware if broker changes. So I hoped to find an explenation here.

Ldn Robert 13:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi all. I'm looking for a report which appeared last year regarding Money Managers for different market instruments. This report stated that FX Money Managers are the most sophisticated and their risk management techniques are unrivalled when compared to Fixed Income, Equity, etc ., Money Managers. Does anyone know where I can obtain the link in question? tia

Dallas GEP 13:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
This could be ONE of the reversal points on some of YEN pairs (no guarantees!!! LOL). 111.40 on USD/JPY and 201.20 on GBP/JPY (reversals going back short from here I mean)

QC WC 13:21 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, are you still holding short Euro at 1.2290?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:17 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
because of gold 411.70, maybe aud/usd will up to get 0.7175 or 0.7799 before move down fast together..

Dallas GEP 13:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Some may ask why Euro is going long same time that USD/JPY is going long. Well YEN is being sold across the board now so it is a YEN play for now. All yen pairs are longing because of it.

hk ab 13:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
entered dlr/jpy short.

GER ad 13:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Almere wjm 13:01,
Check with your broker if they have change the margin requirement for your acount (because market condition or...).
GL.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
gold is ideal if touch 411.70 before move down fast..
sell there !!..

Almere wjm 13:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hello, I received a margin call warning on my mini share trading account. I have just 3 1 lot positions running. The report indicate I need 150 margin and I have 810 margin space. Can anyone explain to me why I receive the warning?

Thank you in advance

TeamWork

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
also usd/chf seen will get 1.2600 before go up..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hello friends..
is good for selling eur/usd if touch 1.2277
I hope you are ready..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
London Tom 12:44 GMT September 27, 2004
IFR Forex watch just went long USD/YEN at 111.23
S/L 110.65 target end of week 112.50

//
Gurenteed That stop will be hit

London Tom 12:44 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
IFR Forex watch just went long USD/YEN at 111.23
S/L 110.65 target end of week 112.50

hk ab 12:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
747//I am with you on the yen wagon... my order 111.30 and eur/jpy 137 with cheap stop.
The moon is coming...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
cable 8073

Global-View QIndex Special 12:37 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   

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Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
now the shake then the drop

Plovdiv Gotin 12:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanx Athens.

Athens 12:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Please read "...near 201 is..."

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
watch cable/yen

Athens 12:31 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Despite finally moving above 111 $/JPY is not O/B on my tech. GBP/JPY ear 201 os (short term).

Gotin. $/CHF is absolutely "boxy", eithet trade the range 1.2520-1.26660 or stay flat this pair. Key levels 1.2860- and 1.2480..

Sydney Alimin 12:31 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
usd/yen still got some room to the upside IMHO

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:30 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
tops 20 Minutes

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 12:24 GMT September 27, 2004
bahrain:
what do you mean?
where is your target for yen?
///
Just e stating what I posted about 5 hours ago..
8 AM it supoose take a dive...
Low today excpected at 110.34

Gen dk 12:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA fxnew 12:24 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
bahrain:
what do you mean?
where is your target for yen?

Budapest Daniel 12:24 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
what do you mean by this Bahrain, can you explain pls?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Yen should dive like really soon

Gen dk 12:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

JakarTa PieTLie 12:03 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:27 GMT September 27, 2004
that stop will hit...

////
thx for your suggestion....

JakarTa PieTLie 11:58 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
any idea for GBP/USD ???

hk jc 11:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
i think it is wise to keep your selling position n yen open, strong possibilityto see 112.00 after home sales data tonight.

Budapest Daniel 11:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
what about selling some gbp/jpy

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:27 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
JaKarTa PieTLie 11:25 GMT September 27, 2004
SeLL GBP/USD 1.8035 target Buy 1.7985 stop @ 1.8050

///
That stop will hit

JaKarTa PieTLie 11:25 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
SeLL GBP/USD 1.8035 target Buy 1.7985 stop @ 1.8050

Gen dk 11:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

slv sam 11:15 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 08:19 GMT September 27, 2004
bought $/y at 110.83 target 111.80 s/l 110.40. GT

target is possible today or tomorrow!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
jpy heading to 110.34

Livingston nh 11:11 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY .7950 (200 da) and EUR/JPY 1.37 (last peak) are top levels to watch this week as volatility continues to be contained in USD/JPY - seems too quiet in USD/JPY given the moves in the EUR and AUD - maybe USD 1.12+ and 1.09 between now and next Monday

hk ab 11:06 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// Have you finished your current Macau index analysis?

Melbourne Qindex 10:50 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

GOES B747 10:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY: looking to build short postion between 111-112 (ideally, 111.30 as average) through Forward Outright (6months).

s/l 117/-
t/p under 105/-
timeframe: until end of APR/2005

gt

hk ab 10:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
nt// sorry for the late reply.
I will make my decision after election. Right now, it's just a strong yoyo.
How about your longs under 0.69? Keeping or trailing?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:27 GMT September 27, 2004 ///
Wed

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Cable might go up again from 1.8030 to 1.8073...to Ny Close

San Diego FXNT 10:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hello London,

Very interesting post. Any thoughts on where the speculators are at if they're not in forex right now? Is this a short term problem or do some suspect it's a longer term problem?

slv sam 10:27 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
most traders agree that a big plunge is waiting for US$!! the only unresolved point is WHEN? some correction in US$ before plunge? or has the plunge started already? GT

Dallas MD 10:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD key resistance @ 1.8070. If broken the upside is 1.8125-45.

London 10:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
To protect speculators IMM data CFTC doesn't release data if fewer than 20 traders report positions, its a sign of the times when so many speculators are temporarily withdrawing from forex that we are seeing positions falling short of the CFTC reporting threshold.
ABN Amro

Barcelona Tony 10:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP, u around?????

London 10:02 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Eurozone Liquidity Points To EUR/USD Downside IFR view

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
110.34 is for waht I got for the low

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
That level is for 8 Am...it will drop for sure...U have 2 Hours

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
111.12 migh be the high for today

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk jc 09:48 GMT September 27, 2004
i think the yen is heading upward, target is 111.50 if it breaks that level then we could see 115.00 level does anyone agree with me.
///
By Wed...it will start crashing from 111.50...is what I have...the 111.5..doesn't have to be from there...wed around 1 PM...should crash from any level

GOES B747 09:51 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk jc 09:48 GMT September 27, 2004

good morning,

Japan, China, India and more Asean countries set to reduce the US deficit; a kind of pay back for the support US/USD provided during the 90's.
115 may print in some crazy sceneraio; but base direction is for under 104/-.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:49 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
for sure though...will be lower then 196.8 by 10th

hk jc 09:48 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
i think the yen is heading upward, target is 111.50 if it breaks that level then we could see 115.00 level does anyone agree with me.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:45 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
5 months

GOES B747 09:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:40 GMT September 27, 2004

when you think that GBP/JPY will go below 175/- ???


gt

GOES B747 09:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
(1) during 2005 we will mark 7years for the global currency crisis of 1998.

(2) RMB activities are at record levels and getting more and more trading volumes.

(3) those who go for short JPY; imo are making a mistake.


gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY will hit 198.5 late today

Gen dk 09:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
1.2204...will Jump again...sharply

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:31 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
eur might be OK 1.2298

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Most likely heading for 1.7980 Tues Lunch time ...Not sure though

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 09:27 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Friends !!
selling alarm for eur/usd in my sytem are ringing now..
do that !!..

Dallas MD 09:26 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Good morning traders!

Current Views on GBP/USD? TIA

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 09:21 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hello friends!!
be carefull with Euro.usd now when at 1.2273.
maybe this is start level to move down..

Gothenburg XON 09:19 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B 08:01 GMT September 27, 2004

Just to brighten up your day, I can say you are not alone :

Last night i shorted AUD/USD @ 0,7145, when it reached 0,7105 4 hours ago, I changed my stop to 1,7125.
it went up again, thus me thinking :cool I made 20 pips!
But my stop should offcourse had been 0,7125 not 1,7125...

Gotta be awake in this biz!
Anyway, just shorted her again...

GOES B747 09:12 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
good morning,

may someone will help with data about the trading balance between China and Japan?
Additionally, the data about China and the following countries will help alot: USA, Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany, etc.



gt

Gen dk 09:02 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Cable 8073 might be OK to short till Big Boys start drinking Coffee

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:54 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
most of the action is around 8:00 Am (ny)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:50 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
OK...this the variation (Normalized) for cable with NY time (each hour)...
The hours mentined last week as big boys hours are clearly seen here...

Average of Variation
Time Total
12:00:00 AM 50.86%
1:00:00 AM 56.39%
2:00:00 AM 119.90%
3:00:00 AM 106.88%
4:00:00 AM 152.30%
5:00:00 AM 137.72%
6:00:00 AM 136.71%
7:00:00 AM 97.81%
8:00:00 AM 206.70%
9:00:00 AM 159.90%
10:00:00 AM 164.83%
11:00:00 AM 162.77%
12:00:00 PM 115.07%
1:00:00 PM 81.23%
2:00:00 PM 106.66%
3:00:00 PM 65.50%
4:00:00 PM 78.03%
5:00:00 PM 64.27%
6:00:00 PM 54.71%
7:00:00 PM 68.86%
8:00:00 PM 62.48%
9:00:00 PM 66.70%
10:00:00 PM 49.80%
11:00:00 PM 50.51%
Grand Total 100.00%

hong kong nt 08:49 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
AB -- are you holding long AUD position at the moment?

London 08:49 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
The balance of risks for EUR/USD is on the downside continue stronger upside surprise on Fed funds, while its ECB refi view is neutral to slightly more dovish than the market. Forecasts 1.20 on a 1-mo horizon vs current 1.2261
BarCap's

Budapest Daniel 08:44 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, lets ask them! ;-)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:42 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dan/
U think everyone else thinks the same?

Gen dk 08:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:37 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Daniel///
Got it thanks... :)

Budapest Daniel 08:35 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
yes but for gbp/usd :)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:34 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dan..and this..still think the same?


Date Short Short PT Long PT Long
Wed-09/29/04 1.8091 1.7945 1.7936 1.7842
Tue-09/28/04 1.8138 1.7983 1.7953 1.7925
Thu-09/30/04 1.8013 1.7991 1.7843 1.7828
Mon-09/27/04 1.8133 1.8064 1.8049 1.7947
Grand Total 1.8138 1.7945 1.8049 1.7828

Tacoma A B 08:25 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
looking like we've got a bit of a double top at .7125 on Aussie Dollar. Resistance to the upside right here, would be a good place to hop on and go short.

Budapest Daniel 08:25 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, my opinion on it that it is not sorted on time :))

HK sya 08:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD R/R trade target 1.2955 before 1.2600 in med-term. (sp 1.2752) Market is slowly but surely getting into a trend reversal mode.

Tacoma A B 08:21 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
London Jim:
The worst thing about my apprehensions with plays I'm in, is that it causes me to mis-trust the charts. Even if you do fall prey to a mis-read, or just a chart not doing what it was plainly supposed to, you have to get stopped out and live to fight another day, and stick to the T/A principles. I do definately feel this one is good for another roughly 120 pips to the downside, its just being patient, and believing in the charts.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:21 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
what do u guys think of my last post?

Plovdiv Gotin 08:20 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
HI Athens./Your view about $/SF pls?TIA.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:19 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I think this schdeule for euro is OK

Date Short Short PT Long PT Long
Wed-09/29/04 1.2365 1.2271 1.2257 1.2187
Tue-09/28/04 1.2401 1.2290 1.2270 1.2220
Thu-09/30/04 1.2372 1.2357 1.2192 1.2187
Mon-09/27/04 1.2411 1.2284 1.2266 1.2197
Grand Total 1.2411 1.2271 1.2270 1.2187

slv sam 08:19 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
bought $/y at 110.83 target 111.80 s/l 110.40. GT

Athens 08:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Re my 22:40 where I suggested going long $/JPY, I wirgdeaw now my interest to buy $/JPY under 110.50 as it dipped again in early asian trading and then failed once more at 111 (multiple failures since last week).

London Jim 08:14 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B, if you read my post earlier where I posted a link to another forum where I did analysis of this pair, you'll know that is has more steam to let off. I'm not saying it'll happen today, but the aussie is due for a correction of about 100pips + this week.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy might be good sell here

Tacoma A B 08:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Aussie dollar spiked down pretty hard, and is now within ten pips of where I bought it. Makes me feel bad I didn't take profits. I spend too much time wishing I'd taken profits and not enough taking them, or realizing I'm in a multi-day trade with most likely better things to come. Would keep the frustration level down if I could realize both.

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 08:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sell signal confirmed on usd/chf , an other opportunity to sell at 1.2636 for 1.2597 --->1.25

GENEVA FHR 08:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
IFO 95.2

Moskow 07:45 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   

Reliable forex historical data
for trading system verification and precise technical analysis
Intraday data are presented since 1997

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 07:44 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
top reached on usd/chf at 1.2644. Short at 1.2640 stop 1.2655

Polokwane SA 07:38 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim
I haven't see your levels this morning.I am a serious follower of it.
gl,gt

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 07:23 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi,
Short order on usd/chf at 1.2645

PAR 07:13 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Expect big drop in German IFO, could fall below 90. Also european real salaries and wages are declining due to high oil prices and the has very negatif impact on european consumer sentiment and spending. Domsetic european demand declining dramatically. Very Euro negatif.

Gold Coast martin 07:01 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 06:55 GMT September 27, 2004
Confucius say "Big fish with fin on back is not necessarily shark".....

gold coast miko 07:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I ment , good to see you are still here

gold coast miko 06:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
RADEN. Good to see you are still with here

hk jc 06:56 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
raden, what is your outlook for the yen.

hk mom 06:55 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   

hk mom 05:16 GMT September 27, 2004
10 pips, I think I should add to long at 0.7105.

trail stop at breakeven. Can't resist to say that small fishes in the forum turn to aud bears now. JIMVHO.

hk ab 06:54 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Who are still shorting eur/chf? So quiet.

Syd 06:49 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab cheers

hk ab 06:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
syd, thanks for your honest view this time, stubborn bone.

Syd 06:36 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab hello trouble maker, well with the election coming I cant see it going too far ,when its over a different matter, but for the next couple of weeks also with the Fed possibly hiking once again can see better levels to buy - still bullish

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 06:30 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
sorry use too many space here, but I hope can help you ..
Eur/usd
Level Sell :
1.2286
1.2378
1.2393
1.2416
1.2471
Level buy :
1.2207
1.2195
1.2169
1.2142
1.2103
GBP/usd
Level Sell :
1.8100
1.8139
1.8226
Level Buy :
1.8030
1.8013
1.7977
1.7957
1.7890
1.7870
Aud/usd
Level sell :
0.7175
0.7199
0.7228
0.7247
Level buy :
0.7097
0.7057
0.7018
Usd/Jpy
Level Sell :
111.15
111.36
112.72
113.41
Level buy :
109.91
109.27
usd/chf
Level Sell :
1.2626
1.2656
1.2745
1.2770
1.2799
1.2816
Level buy :
1.2584
1.2471
1.2416
1.2393
1.2378
Gold
Level sell :
409.32
410.17
415.13
416.03
417.15


Level buy :
404.72

hk ab 06:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
This is the first time I have seen syd on the bearish side of aussie in the last 2 years....

Vancouver BC WLV 06:18 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana: I think most big brokers in USA are safe to park your trading money. In my opinion, you must ask if they GUARANTEE stoploss even on gap up/down. My former broker doesn't guarantee stoploss... once there was a sudden gap up and it ignored my stoploss; it ballooned almost wiping my out entire acct. So I switched to my present broker who guarantees stoploss.

Syd 06:18 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Australians will elect a new government in two weeks with both the major parties failing so far to establish a clear lead in national opinion polls. If narrow polling persists until election day, currency traders fear investors will become uneasy about the prospect of a hung parliament. If the election produces a hung situation, major parties will have to compete for the support of minor parties and independents to form a government. Traders expect a heavy sell off of the Australian dollar if the election fails to produce a clear winner. "It's an Armageddon scenario," one senior trader at an Australian investment bank said.
reuters






Melbourne Qindex 05:56 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 05:47 GMT - Good afternoon, there is a lot of analyses for me to catch up.

Ldn 05:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
The week will kick off with Germany’s IFO business sentiment for September, expected to edge back by 0.2 points. Traders, however, must watch the expectations index which is expected to drop by 0.5 point to 95.5, which could place light pressure against the euro.

KL KL 05:47 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon Qindex...back home or away...lol...gl gt

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 05:46 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon everybody !!
I hope you got profit from my levels that I have posted last week.
GL !!..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:45 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
MOM..if day trade
use this

Data
Date Short Short PT Long PT Long
Tue-09/28/04 0.7166 0.7139 0.7117 0.7103
Mon-09/27/04 0.7188 0.7140 0.7126 0.7101
Grand Total 0.7188 0.7139 0.7126 0.7101

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   

Data
Date Short Short PT Long PT Long
Tue-09/28/04 1.2657 1.2615 1.2587 1.2515
Mon-09/27/04 1.2700 1.2615 1.2590 1.2452
Grand Total 1.2700 1.2615 1.2590 1.2452

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:43 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
chf

van revdax 05:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Any brave soul could venture into guessing if $/CHF is going up or down today? TIA

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:39 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Eur/aus


Data
Date Short Short PT Long PT Long
Wed-09/29/04 1.7688 1.7559 1.7355 1.7194
Tue-09/28/04 1.7554 1.7412 1.7231 1.7059
Thu-09/30/04 1.7675 1.7440 1.7323 1.7265
Mon-09/27/04 1.7386 1.7317 1.7123 1.7103
Fri-10/01/04 1.7527 1.7438 1.7362 1.7269
Sat-10/02/04 1.7515 1.7502 1.7384 1.7363
Grand Total 1.7688 1.7317 1.7384 1.7059

Syd 05:32 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
There is an article going around re: devaluation of the USD - cant see President Bush just prior to the Election agree to seeing the USD fall through the floor not likely atall

Syd 05:30 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
If Australia has a hung parliament it will be negative Aud

Syd 05:29 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk mom agree with Gold Coast careful at moment market undecided on fate of aud

Gold Coast martin 05:20 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 05:16 GMT September 27, 2004
If you want to long more aud wait until wednesday thursday friday as you will get levels of 7080,7055,and 6986...in that order....g/t

Tijuana 05:19 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
OK Vancuver BC,
Thanks for the response. I am considering opening a live account very soon but I am still stumbling over which broker company is right for me. Can anybody explain to me......Are these brokerage companys good places to leave your money for semi-long periods of time? How much money is safe? Are some companys less or more trusted than others?

hk mom 05:16 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
10 pips, I think I should add to long at 0.7105.

Melbourne Qindex 05:06 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Vancouver BC WLV 05:06 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana: I noticed the same thing you said. On my real trading acct the quote fluctuations are smoothed out. I have another broker's demo acct and I use its charts which I think are more sensitive to actual market tick-by-tick. Sometimes I scalped a few pips as my real trading quotes are lagging my demo chart movement.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 04:49 GMT September 27, 2004
I have an order to short dlrcad at 1.28.
I am still keeping 0.7220 long and 0.7030 lo

Mom I suggest You PT Aussie

Syd 05:00 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
There were no stats out of Aus last week, this week Trade figures Wednesday, Retail Trade and Private Sector Credit on Thursday and Building approvals Friday -
we may therefore see more movement at both ends of the range

Sydney EM 04:52 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja neither do I thought it would pick up September elections etc getting in the way suppose.

hk mom 04:49 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I have an order to short dlrcad at 1.28.
I am still keeping 0.7220 long and 0.7030 long.

Ldn 04:31 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Australia Prime Minister Howard's A$6 billion spending package announced yesterday "changed the whole character of the election," says HSBC chief economist John Edwards. "What we are seeing is the worst possible outcome...the surpluses are being relentlessly committed before we have any depth of conviction that they will actually be delivered," he says. Adds surpluses could dissolve if employment, prices or economy in general doesn't grow as rapidly as Treasury expects
Reuters.

Sydney Ge11Ja 04:22 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney EM 04:10 GMT September 27, 2004

Thanks fellow sydneyer, I can definitely see both side of the argument, market so quiet I was probably clutching at straws...but then quiet markets favour yield plays

dont know why markets so quiet of late?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:15 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
this aus schedule
Data
Date Short Short PT Long PT Long
Wed-09/29/04 0.7102 0.7083 0.7017 0.6957
Tue-09/28/04 0.7216 0.7098 0.7035 0.6989
Thu-09/30/04 0.7085 0.7027 0.6974 0.6958
Mon-09/27/04 0.7194 0.7178 0.7104 0.7037
Fri-10/01/04 0.7033 0.7012 0.6960 0.6945
Sat-10/02/04 0.7025 0.7023 0.6946 0.6945
Grand Total 0.7216 0.7012 0.7104 0.6945

Sydney EM 04:10 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11J
ABN-Amro are saying conflicting views around at present

Time To Bail Out Of AUD?
AUD may still be looking pretty perky but is not counting on this view lasting much longer. Expects "substantial yield compression" reversing the premium that been helping AUD higher.

Sydney Ge11Ja 04:02 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I think a long AUD position this week would be a good pre - G7 trade. T
he G7 is unlikely to come out saying they would like to see a stronger USD, so risk is they come out with a USD negative comment - this would be AUD positive
If they come out saying they want continued stability that would also be AUD positive as it will encourage another round of carry trades
all IMHO of course

Sydney EM 03:55 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Australian Government Spending Spree Under Fire

Tijuana 03:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
I have a question is somebody would be kind enough to help me. I have a demo account and I watch a real time chart and the currency quote at the same time. The real time chart may go up or down but the quote stays about the same unless there is a significant change. Why is this and do all brokerage companys do the same or do some give their quotes according to exactly what real time says?

London 03:11 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Japan Takenaka says that the Japan economy is recovering firmly

Sydney 02:48 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Japanese selling 7115 Support

Mfld JM 02:41 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:57 GMT September 27, 2004
IN short at 1.2290 on EUR/USD

GEP - Will you be covering 2278 ish or are you looking a little longer term?

Sydney Ge11Ja 02:27 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
SIN Oski 01:53 GMT September 27, 2004

How do you devalue a floating currency?

LA fxnew 02:02 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
gep:

what is your view for usd/yen?

thanks

Dallas GEP 01:57 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
IN short at 1.2290 on EUR/USD

SIN Oski 01:53 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
G7 Meeting this coming week-end, and there are talks that there is a growing pressure to devalue USD as much as 20%.
GL

toronto Dr Unken Katt 01:40 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 23:08 GMT September 26, 2004
toronto, i assume you are
no tim , i did mean euro$ dayly candlez

Dallas GEP 01:07 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Will be taking a small short on Eur/usd @ 1.2290

London 00:59 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
FOMC statement and hawkish tone of minutes from Fed's Aug. 10 meeting strongly suggest against betting on imminent pause in tightening phase, U.S. real short-term interest rates unusually low for this stage of economic cycle

Gen dk 00:47 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney EM. 00:09 GMT September 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD likely to undergo corrective fall to 0.7080 this week, and perhaps even deeper, depending on slew of Australian data this week, Wednesday's August trade balance, Thursday's August credit and retail trade data
ANZ Investment Bank

 




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