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Forex Forum Archive for 09/28/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:56 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

WASH DC SRQ 23:55 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML
sorry had to go out. Thanks for your answer.

SF MRZ 23:54 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
I think strong dollar til friday, cash in for the weekend, end of month, end of quarter.

wisconsin tim 23:52 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
tacoma, I was long $/cad looking at reentering on my indicator bounce

wisconsin tim 23:51 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP possible sell around mid 1.8200's ?
GBP/USD Chart
Any comments from the cable operators =)

Sydney EM 23:44 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Talk that EUR/JPY may edge lower as profits taken on recent gains EUR/USD can also edge lower on the back of it

Tacoma A B 23:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin: What position were you in on the $/can? I'm long right now, with the break below the double bottom on a daily chart as my stop loss. What is your take on this one? I feel its finally found a bottom, but I've been wrong more than right lately. Thanks.

Syd 23:14 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
A profile candidates for Australia Next Prime Minister

PRIME MINISTER AND LIBERAL PARTY LEADER JOHN HOWARD
Liberal Party leader John Howard, 65, is a 30-year veteran of the federal parliament. The Sydney lawyer and father of three was elected to parliament in 1974 and has been prime minister since March 1996. A staunch conservative and monarchist, Howard has built a reputation for his political comebacks. He is viewed as a tenacious and determined competitor who reads the electorate's mood well. Having led the Liberal Party to election victories in 1996, 1998 and 2001, Howard is vying for his fourth straight term in office. In June 2003, Howard announced just ahead of his 64th birthday that he would remain in the top job, dealing a major blow to the leadership ambitions of his loyal deputy, Treasurer Peter Costello. Since that time, Howard has signaled he is eager to serve another full three-year term if his coalition retains office. During his eight and a half years as national leader, Howard has overseen a period of robust domestic economic growth and forged closer ties with traditional military ally the U.S., deploying troops to join U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Earlier this year, Canberra-Washington finalized a free trade agreement, which Howard has nominated as one of his government's best achievements.

LABOR PARTY LEADER MARK LATHAM
Mark Latham, aged 43, became leader of the center-left Labor Party on Dec. 2, 2003, replacing the lackluster Simon Crean. A former Mayor of Liverpool City Council, Latham entered parliament in 1994 as the member for Werriwa, an electorate covering Sydney's southwestern outskirts.
Latham grew up in a working-class suburb of Sydney to become a protege of former Labor Prime Minister Gough Whitlam. The father of two is an author of several books.
Before his ascension to the Labor Party leadership, Latham's public profile was largely shaped by an incident in which he broke a taxi driver's arm during a fare dispute. Regarded as a tough, brash lawmaker who made a solid contribution to Labor's policy debate, Latham promptly toned down his abrasive style and sometimes crude language after winning the close leadership ballot over Kim Beazley. During his 10 months at the helm, Latham also has managed to reassemble a ragged and demoralized party to be in a strong position to defeat the government. Prior to becoming leader, Latham called U.S. President George W. Bush "flaky," "dangerous" and "incompetent." The coalition has used these comments, along with the Labor leader's pledge to withdraw troops from Iraq by Christmas, to paint Latham as anti-American and a threat to the long-standing Australia-U.S. military alliance.

reuters.

ICT ML 23:05 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 22:11 GMT September 28, 2004
Yes I do. I think we take out all the stops between 1.2600 and 1.2700 before we even think about a real move back up. Weeklies are close to telling me "enough drilling $CAD for now" but not quite, but monthlies are saying be careful in this area because it might want to bounce hard.

This is the area I often screw up a really good run. .....the point where the planned TP is and I override it and try for a little bit more out of it.

Melbourne Qindex 22:47 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 22:34 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez just got to make sure your on the right side when it breaks

wisconsin tim 22:27 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
LAX, which chart timeperiod are you seeing the hanging man on?

LAX-LGB SNP 22:11 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone reckon $CAD daily hanging man can break past Jan'04 low of 1.2681

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:09 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney// Good link! That's what I referred to per my "triangle" post a couple hours earlier, your link gave good commentary. I've been watching this triangle for a while...looks like October will be intersting...some 100-130 pip up-down but finally breaking out in the 1st or 2nd week in Nov. By the looks of the charts on your link we're looking at €/$ 1.25 and higher. Thanks!

London 22:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Foreign exchange markets never sleep: $1.9 trillion in cash transactions take place daily
This volume is up 57 percent since 2001, when the last such survey was conducted by the Bank for International Settlements, which tallied the findings of central banks and monetary authorities of 52 nationsThe study also looked at currency and interest-rate derivatives traded outside of exchanges; these transactions have risen 112 percent over the past three years to reach an average daily turnover of $1.22 trillion. "Turnover rose across instruments but particularly in the spot and forward markets," said a report from the Bank for International Settlements. "In addition to valuation-effects factors that have arguably boosted turnover, include investors' interest in foreign exchange as an asset class alternative to equity and fixed income, the more active role of asset managers and the growing importance of hedge funds." An estimated 89 percent of foreign exchange transactions involved U.S. dollars. The euro played a role in 37 percent; the yen, 20 percent; and the British pound, 17 percentThe most popular monetary pairings: dollar and euro, accounting for 28 percent of daily turnover; dollar and yen, making up 17 percent; and dollar with British pound taking a 14 percent share Meanwhile, foreign exchange derivatives enjoy an average daily turnover of $140 billion. This comprises $21 billion in currency swaps, $117 billion in options and $2 billion in individually customized contracts Average daily turnover among interest-rate derivatives was $1.025 trillion: $233 billion in forward-rate agreements; $621 billion in swaps; and $171 billion in options. The Bank of International Settlements also factors in a $55 billion gap in reporting, which when added to the figures brings the average daily turnover for interest-rate and forex derivatives to $1.22 trillion. Both forex and interest-rate derivatives grew at the same pace on and off exchanges.
cbsmarketwatch.

ICT ML 22:03 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 20:59 GMT September 28, 2004
Euro direction......if I had to take a SWAG it'd be down from 1.2350 area. Not really following it as I am short euro againt the pound myself, more $$$ to be made if I'm right on that one I think.

Melbourne Qindex 21:50 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 21:49 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Aust trade balance due Wed 1.30GMT

wisconsin tim 21:44 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
well so much for that $/CAD punt getting out now while the getting's good.

Philadelphia caba 21:17 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Good evening, any idea about EUR/$ for next 24 hours? Thanks.

Syd 21:00 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Technicals Forecasting the Fundamental Shifts
L I N K

With a rising consensus that the global economic recovery has finally taken a solid footing, are technical studies of major leading issues lending credence to this fresh accord? If so, how can one attempt to measure the shift in consensus?

WASH DC SRQ 20:59 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT
Thanks and your view apprecaited. what's ur view on eur/usd for today: up,down - just a basic idea

ICT ML 20:52 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 20:16 GMT September 28, 2004
Simply because Rogers hasn't made it his sole goal in life to create a "society" according to his own views and imposed on others, and Rogers doesn't openly run around financing anarchist groups which Soros does.

Its about respect as a man, not trader, but even as a trader I think Soros is over rated overall as the downfall of his Quantum funds speaks for itself.

Having said that I used to think highly of Soros as a thinker and trader until he took that hard left turn at the crossroads of sanity and anarchy.

Just my own personal opinions and nothing more.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:24 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town 20:03 GMT September 28, 2004// Good post. But if the U$D will NOT be a hedge currency, then what will be? Back to the CHF £? I can't see the € as the new hedge as it's wobbly. What's your take? As to a predicted low demand for USD hence low USD value, that is seen by most as a + factor for US econ: exports will be GOOD meaning trade def will decrease (theroretically) but material/petro will "cost" yanks more for durable goods mfg..

No one commented on my triangle post below...GV, got an op on this?

JHB Dean 20:17 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Jim Rogers and Soros were partners for many years at the Quantum Fund but have more time for Jim Rogers views as well

WASH DC SRQ 20:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 20:14 GMT September 28, 2004
why ICT?

ICT ML 20:14 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Rogers split from Soros many, many, many moons ago. I have much more respect for Rogers than Soros myself.

Syd 20:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town thats Soros isnt it ? something to watch.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:06 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Alert: Paranoids: The California quake, which struck at 10:15 a.m. PDT, had a preliminary magnitude of 6.0 and was centered 7 miles southeast of Parkfield, the town known as California's earthquake capital, according to the U.S.G.S., 21 miles northeast of Paso Robles (on the San Andreas fault) & populaton of 37 known as "the earth quake capital". A Dec. 22, 2003, quake collapsed old downtown buildings in Paso Robles, pitching an 1892 clock tower building onto the street crushing a row of parked cars. "The aftershocks are tracking toward the northwest, which is good, according to the scientists, because it appears it is not a precursor to something larger," said Eric Lamoureaux, an emergency services spokesman.

Syd 20:05 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Rome Alex Life can be that simple , some just look for a fight -but can be far more productive being decent.

Austin rb 20:03 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Syd
Did that the other night and got arrested,you are right on

Cape Town 20:03 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
"The US dollar is going the way that [the British pound] went as it lost its place as the world's reserve currency," said Jim Rogers, the Wall Street wizard who in 1973 co-founded the Quantum Fund, one of the first and most successful hedge funds, in a recent interview. "I suspect there will be exchange controls in the US in the foreseeable future....Whoever is elected president is going to have serious problems in 2005-06. We Americans are going to suffer."

Rome Alex 20:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Syd 19:59 GMT ... nice and clever ... wish everybody could just understand things same way ......

Syd 19:59 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Cant understand why everyone has a dig at each others post why dont they just read on and ignore what they dont like, you dont go and punch someone in a restaurant cos you dont like the way he talks to his wife do you, you just get on with your meal.

wisconsin tim 19:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
rome-> hourly divergences have happened before and haven't amount to squat except sideways action before the next leg down

Austin rb 19:56 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
a lot of uk data tonight to be aware of for gbp movement

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:53 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
The epicenter of the Ca. quake was halfway between San Francisco & LA, not a metropolitan area.

Rome Alex 19:50 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 19:16 GMT ... what do you mean by "before"???

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:48 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
vv// No one is saying you shouldn't post here, the point is we've gotta show respect for others just as if we were sitting at a pub having a good time.

Reuters:
A series of earthquakes, one of them registering magnitude 5.9, shook central California on September 28, 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey reported which hit a sparsely populated area of the state northeast of Paso Robles.

FloridA vv 19:32 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 19:16 GMT September 28, 2004
nothing like stepping in front of a runaway train

Sorry to appear in this forum again but couldn't hold my horses.
They say - they scream BUY BUY BUY Usd/Cad
So I did I,, added to my loosing 14 lots 100 000 each 12 more the same size I advise to everyone here - ONE WeeK = 400 pips
Good Trades
Sorry If it was not OK with you
GT

wisconsin tim 19:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
nothing like stepping in front of a runaway train ... buying $/cad
based on this hourly divergence ... USDCAD Hourly ... it's done this before with not so good results =)


quito_ecuador_valdez 19:08 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Mex sjs, buenas dias amigo, you're the best chartist I personally know..what's your op on the €$ 1 yr chart "triangle" question?

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 19:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
so how's everyone doing today? a small battle was fought here as i read thru old postings. relax everyone, let's just trade and be happy, healthy discussions

be well, gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Back to trading (tks GV) so we can make a living. On 1yr €/$ chart I see a triangle indicating a point (pivot point and trend change) seemingly Nov 20 this yr. Support line starts from 11/6/03 to present, resistance from 1/12/04 to present. Comments? (Tacoma..put your 2 cents in here too!)

FloridA vv 18:46 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B 18:38 GMT September 28, 2004
Yes I have everything what I need. Make an official request as it is stated in the rules of this forum, and you will get it.

But Guys That was a real fun... How easy it is to set you on fire. Don't kill my with your e-mails if you would be able to get it from GVI. But promice will reply to everyone in full details, off cource if you need it.
Good Trades and FireWelll
vv from FloridA - a very good russian guy. (/;-))

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:44 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B 18:34 GMT September 28, 2004// Right. While we're in the chart doldrums, same with me. I'm an old stock man; TA/fundamentals translate differently somewhat for FX, esp if you'e not a position trader but a day trader or pip raider. You're probably used to longer term possies (1 week or more) and that's fine for FX also, it's called "position trading". If you want to practice more just use a demo or mini to get a hang for this & hang out on the Help forum, post questions. Some pretty big traders hang out there. I'm into FX to diversify my portfolio, have adrenalin rushes, have had positive results from position trading, not amazing results from day trading such as GEP & many others enjoy. (I envy them!)

Global-View 18:43 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 18:36 GMT September 28, 2004 - we won't dignify that with an answer but if you really wanted to discuss this rather than take pot shots, you would contact us and discuss it in a civilized way. You know where to reach us.

Daniel, 'it was built into the original program.

Budapest Daniel 18:40 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Is the word "H.E.L.L." that negative in its meaning that it have to be censored?

lugano franco 18:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
maybie the bulls should be beginning to understand that upper border is, at current, too high, maybie today iss last effort...
then as all long when it will hedge down the run could be fast
and maybie, US desire, usd will go up and bringing eur to new lows (1.13?)....or finally we break!
at the moment holding my short and waiting...
other ideas are welcome...
go outside a while now...

Tacoma A B 18:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
florida, do you happen to have an email address, or do you ever contact other traders? Just wondering if that, unfortounately, is going to be your last post.

Budapest Daniel 18:37 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
FloridA: I'm a loser beginner so I'm trying to gain some knowledge from the more experienced ones... I know it would be more efficient to develop my own tools and stuff like these but censored, everyone else have more experience than me here...

Tacoma A B 18:36 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, I think most everyone agrees that the rules are pretty good for keeping things at a high quality, but at the same time, from a newbies standpoint, it'd suck to lose the advice of an experienced trader. We need to go Rodney King on this and all just get along.

FloridA vv 18:36 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Probably my last post in this forum. But just curious

GVI - are you all from North Corea where there is no democracy ets. ?

Its just a question.
Thanx

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:35 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 18:25 GMT September 28, 2004
Respecfully, if you read guidlines offered each time you post in the form of a blue link to them (Forum Rules) at the top of the posting page, you'll see that there ARE certain rules you must follow to be given the privelege of visiting/posting on the GV forums. There are very weighty traders onboard...believe me who control many millions of $$ and we're not talking leverage..we're talking cash. One of them is who you are bashing. The forums are free so we must follow some rules, GV knows best of how to keep this alive. This is not a democracy nor a Yahoo chat room. Everyone does NOT have the right to discuss anything. I am not affiliated with GV other than some volunteer work but you'll be hearing from GV basically what I wrote above likely today in email. Please just relax amigo, enjoy.

Tacoma A B 18:34 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
quito:
Yeah, I guess its that an earthquake is so sudden and unexpected, people think the worst, and freak. Par for the course the past couple days. Had a tough go of it lately. Alot of my T/A skills from stock trading aren't converting over, at least not in the short run.

FloridA vv 18:31 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
IC Thanx :((

Global-View 18:28 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
vv. While it is a public forum it is not a democracy and we set the rules. Our simple rules have worked very well maintaining a high quality flow of information. They are few but work well so all we ask for is cooperation. There are plenty of chat rooms elsewhere where you can say what you want. There is a reason why so many come here. You have a choice to go elsewhere if you don't agree with the way we run our site. Anytime we edit a post, and it is rare, it is not personal and designed to maintain the flow for the greater good of our members. As we have said many times, we run an open door policy and are available if you have feedback, both positive or negative, and we are open to suggestions and new ideas.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:27 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
The durned California quake messed me up too...still got my 6 shorts however in a holding pattern..1 earth quake, even a 5.8 in a country as large as the US, can only temporarily effect the stupid gutless paranoid banks which control unfortuately FX, not the US economy nor value of the USD. Hurricanes are actually much more destructive to the US yet nothing happened FX wise.

FloridA vv 18:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:12 GMT September 28, 2004

Don't have anyting against this site except their habit to deleat not appropriate (from their pint of view) posts. Everyone has the right to speak about everything - including discussions of brokers, which will help FX in a long run. And I don't oppose those who are posting argumented possies here like Melbourne Farmacia or Miamy OMil.
But will be Alvays Against quaking ducks
GT

GVI Jay 18:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Mex. Look on http://www.global-view.com - see Data & Tools

Tacoma A B 18:21 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
florida:
wouldn't that be nice. It seems like we're at a double bottom here, so its an educated hope at the least I'd say. Or I'd hope. :)
Are you playing this from this side as well?

MEX OSK 18:20 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Hello guys! anyone knows where I can get hourly info (hostorical back up to 5 years) on mayor crosses?

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:20 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Nor HK is this forum a free advertising front; you can contact [email protected] if you want to advertise. This is a trade board. Your posts are not appreciated. It's lunch time or Jay & John would have deleted your post and banned your IP.

FloridA vv 18:18 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B 18:12 GMT September 28, 2004

That's how Caddy plays when it is tired to the downside.
Tomorrow you may get richer for 300 or some pips (hope)

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 17:21 GMT September 28, 2004
The reason you got censored: it is considered bad form on this forum to bash posters by name who offer their advice for free (good or bad). As advised to you below, let the "advice" speak for itself. And not all good posters are right 100%, it's impossible. Who is?

Principally, my take of this forum is (in order of importance) for trades/strategy/breaking immediate price effecting news. This forum unlike the Political and Help forums is not meant for lengthy discussion/chat.

Posters take time out of their trading day to post/interface with others/help & deliver a window of their own trading, whether + or -...takes guts & humility. In general, trades posted here are a little above 54% correct (from my hit and miss analysation). YOU must select who's on target usually and who isn't, using that info voluntarily. If there's a poster who doesn't satisfy your criteria, OK, but please no bad mouthing by name. If you disagree then be constructive: in a gentlemanly manner & with your reasons/TA/fundamentals.

~~~~ADVICE~~~~
Personally I don't see enough reasons & strategy for this forum to be of the full potential value it could be. It doesn't help OTHERS much to just post trades & predictions with NO reasons as to why nor the first bit of TA or fundamental strategy used to make that trade. Copying someone else's trade = no brainer. If the trade goes bad you've learned nothing, just lost $$...gained nothing as to how to prevent it again...AND WHY it went wrong. Copy cats have no base of learning yet real learning is the most valued asset you have.

Until posters start posting reasons why their trades and predictions are as they are, this forex forum page of the GV website is best used I feel as a news front while the Help Forum to me is the best resource forum here along with the GV "Analysis and News" and the "Data and Tools" links. The "Learning Center" link will, as time goes on, develop more and more...keep an eye on it. GL GT and thanks GV for your helpful website.

Tacoma A B 18:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
so, that earthquake hit, and I was holding dollar canada long, and the second it hit my dollar plummited thirty pips in about five minutes. I was wondering why that happened, because it was looking good. All has recovered now luckily.

north carolina mdr 18:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
How much $$ do you consider a good day?

Gen dk 18:09 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
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FloridA vv 18:05 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hk mom
Mommy you can byu Usd/Jpy here and take profit @ 113, to be able to buy yourself some cologne to ease vv's stinky words aroma
GT

hk mom 17:59 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
It looks like aud can reach 0.7220 soon with the support from audyen.
vv's words are stinky.

Gen dk 17:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

FloridA vv 17:53 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 17:39 GMT September 28, 2004
Please dont misunderstand me.
You don't pay me, so it's not my duty to provide you with the accurate signals.
what I'm doing here is just sharing my point of view, trying to create a healthy heated discussion with the strongest arguments you can put in here to make my mind and finally some profit from this. Hate whitches and fortune readers. That's for weak loosers.
GT

jkt-aye 17:49 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
thanks, GL>

FloridA vv 17:46 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
jkt-aye 17:35 GMT September 28, 2004

Have no idea. May only guess looking at my charts. Those say 1.82 major resistance: now consolidating trying to get through 1.8150. But if you look at eur/gbp chart - all different story - if it would be able to poke through .6870 - poor CAble It will drop down like a dead bird
GT.

toronto 17:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hello what u guys think of gbp/us how much high it can go?

Budapest Daniel 17:39 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
if i would follow you florida, then i must be very rich by now if you can provide us better views than raden... sorry but raden's posts are useful for me, keep up the good work raden...

Global-View GVI 17:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Note:

GVI Jay 17:33 GMT September 28, 2004
5.8 preliminary reading, hit central California

LA Mel 17:29 GMT September 28, 2004
earthquake in sf?

nyc jk 17:29 GMT September 28, 2004
earthquake in California?

FloridA vv 17:36 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
No probs. Just dont pretend to be the Christ or Mohammed. Play yor game be persistent and dont let anybody to kick you off of your pozies.
Personally still long Usd/Cad and Usd/Jpy. Stops are known. But would'nt advise you to post your stopps here if you are playing big.
GT

jkt-aye 17:35 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
good day vv,
what's your view on cable at this stage as I have a little bit confuse to get its direction. Is it going to tackle 1.8065 before trying to get a higher level (1.82xx) or straight away to move up ? TIA

NYC NYC 17:29 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
vv. Instead of bad mouthing someone, just let the trades speak for themselves, such as the sell at 1,.2315

FloridA vv 17:21 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:47 GMT September 28, 2004

Well My post is deleated. Fine. I'll put my question in different words.
That was almost english which raden speaks here. But in reality he is a Joke. A BIG one. Look into history and be accurate in time - price - Solo-Mas predictions, you will see 50/50 that's the way market moves. GOOOd Trades

Gen dk 17:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
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Gen dk 17:10 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
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FloridA vv 17:10 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
That was just a question. Nothing more

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 17:10 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Hmm..seems market would be move on the topside.
I want to off early as my T/P reached at all.

For anyone are think that USD buying still, becareful!
Watch that most of tech indicators are telling us that how strong EUR, GBP, AUD bull are in place. Think twice to catch on correction in this cycle. if not, put a minimum STP rather than 'trade by hope'. U know, the train is move to ur side, dont try to opposite it...awwww! LMAO

All the best for u, everyone!
I ll be off for now. GL

FALLS PB 17:08 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 16:59 GMT September 28, 2004

///I thought individual trader bashing wasn't allowed on this site

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:47 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd is nice second chance for sell after touch 1.2316..
maximal is at 1.2325

Dallas MD 16:46 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable was very nice to me today. Good Trading Everyone & I will see you all tomorrow.

Mauricio

Gen dk 16:34 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas MD 16:27 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
I only trade intraday. Suits my personality.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:12 GMT September 28, 2004
Dallas MD 16:07 GMT September 28, 2004
Going to close out Cable Short @ 1.8076 if seen//
Why?
if I may ask You to leave it till Next week

Van jv 16:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
USDCAD-----Double Bottom --teaser which may become real?

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 16:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

I Like when i read few posts and say: Long time no see!
I follow the posts and i see that they speak 4 the next years and i cant get how some times they see and some No..

China looks like to be the next Power for the next years hopefuly pointing in history that King"s chair is not reserve for ever..

nk

Va Raven 16:23 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
NH, good one and thanks!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:18 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
usa 16:14 GMT September 28, 2004 //
I am with U 100%

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 16:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Good Day everyone!

How's ur trade. Hopefully u have a great result this wonderful day. We are still on the downward in momentum short-term side, then will be keep watching later.

Both Euro and cable are in good mood which are matched persistly in their resistance.

My pocket is full now. Let me see if 4hrs chart give a good signal for put alittle contract. Untill then, take care and have a nice trade everyone!

usa 16:14 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone trading $/Yen? I'm going short here .... stop macd hour cross

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD 16:07 GMT September 28, 2004
Going to close out Cable Short @ 1.8076 if seen//
Why?
if I may ask You to leave it till Next week

bandung ompung forex 16:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hi raden mas, i remain you too to short cable and stop is never touch anymore...he hehe..see u tommorow. you must read my forecast ( but always happened )

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:11 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Crude oil...
53 then down to 43.5.. Oct/10

Dallas MD 16:07 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Going to close out Cable Short @ 1.8076 if seen.

Pta Lud 16:05 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dallas MD

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:05 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable...after Thusrday...might be around 1.8150...and stablize there

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:03 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
bandung ompung forex 15:45 GMT September 28, 2004
from where and from whom?
I know well about Bandung :-)..
I remind you about gbp/usd if touch 1.8057.

Dallas MD 16:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
49.85
Pta Lud 16:01 GMT September 28, 2004
Can anyone tell where the oil price are?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 15:47 GMT September 28, 2004
Hang in there Buddy..it coming down...

Pta Lud 16:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell where the oil price are?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:59 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys...
The drop will last till thursday..the following week for the Euro and GBP..(1.2130 and 1.7811)
Cad Might do it by monday...max 1.3150

Livingston nh 15:59 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Raven - my opinion is cheap because no position -chart on USD/JPY looks moderately supportive but techs can be swamped on a strong repat move to a 109 handle and I expect TanKan to be weak (Japan needs rate hike), so a reversal could be fierce once the Thursday's pressure is off and then into Friday's close the "G7=cheaper dollar" folks will likely bring it down again into the 109 area again// Japanese are probably pleased that China has been invited this year - the new guy will take up a lot of jawboning that the Japanese have heard in the past

hk ab 15:47 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
nt// I will not rule that out, especially it took out my thresold in this ny session.
But long term friends seem having a different view with the m/t friend this time. I am only in 2 positions with e/j, no big deal.

Dublin Flip 15:46 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Well there you go js. As we speak Dollar just got a little lift You must be physcic. -LOL

bandung ompung forex 15:45 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hi Raden mas...have i know u..?

Dublin Flip 15:45 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
sorry ....
30/40 pips range

Dublin Flip 15:45 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
js everything has been in 30/40 pips across the board from Asia open last night. I think it's actually unchanged on balance mate.

worcester js 15:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
why did the dollar go up today?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
bandung ompung forex 15:32 GMT September 28, 2004
hi..

Va Raven 15:40 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
NH, expecting a strong reversal?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:37 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd have get start level for sell when touched 1.2322..
is normal reaction after touched 1.2300..
next target is 1.2257..

hong kong nt 15:33 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
AB -- my MT guess on E/J is 150-155, lower yen may help to stabilise present fragile recovery, which may help Jap corp to get more biz with china (export or project tender), attract more overseas tourists, discourage import goods, etc. and also helps to create some inflation which maybe needed to stimulate more local investment...

bandung ompung forex 15:32 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
any body followed my suggest to short cable...? i prove it now..

Livingston nh 15:29 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY has a lot of crosscurrents into Monday - end of Q3 on Thursday, repatriation pressure?, TanKan on Friday (with reversal potential to any extreme move on Thurs) going into G-7 W/E

GOES B747 15:28 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hi alimin,

I am short USD/JPY (averaged @ 111.30); will go with this.
just using low leverage and taking the time needed.
Japan, Korea, China (inc. HKG), India and the other tigers are booming and the most interesting picture is coming out of the trade balances among themselves (good read!!!).
I see the last movements within the FX markets as Budha/Krishna bargaining tactic; each pip higher today is less for them to giveup within 2 weeks.
I hope you understand me.

AB // sorry, risk managment is not my strongest side; I beleive in low leverage for the right positions.

gt and I am off posting for today !!!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:27 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd tgt buy level is 1.2257, also gbp/usd is 1.8057.. :-|

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:24 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
gold 408.65-408.15, and if touch 408.15..welcome to buy level at 406.76..

Sydney Alimin 15:22 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
yen is being bought across the board, correction before sold off again perhaps?

Gen dk 15:22 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney Alimin 15:21 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Goes B747: any position with usd/jpy on ur side? to me it is interesting because break of 111.50 should have brought us to 112 but it is not the case...

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:20 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
sorry..come late here..

Dublin Flip 15:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Wholetitout where actually is "doggy"???
Is it a Economic/Business University located somewhere in the US in the appalacians???

BEIRUT MK 15:13 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
close short audjpy at 79.90

hk ab 15:10 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
747//My humble opinion is that one can take short eur/gbp for easier risk management than eur shorts.

hk ab 15:09 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
nt//sorry for the late reply.
eur/jpy is already very very very competitive for japanese. Further bias will make european wake up sooner rather than later.

What drew my attention the whole day is the oil.....
Anything can make those CB and gov'ts be smarter to remove those speculations?....

Chinese tradition idiom: 物極必反. When something gets to an extreme, nature will correct it. Good luck.

With vv's sort of people here, staying here longer made me losing a lot of interest.

GOES B747 15:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
imho and fwiw,

higher oil prices serve serve the European govs.; as no profits with the companies that just fill the gap in taxes collection with this oil price raise.

BUT, each fake story has it's end....European ccys are SELL for what ever matures after 11/OCT/2004 (maybe earlier).

gt

BEIRUT MK 14:59 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
close short eurusd at 1.2315

Dallas MD 14:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
First 2 Tgts hit on Cable Short, Shooting for 1.8076 for remainder of lots.

GOES B747 14:57 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Muzza san; QTR finish dat after tomorrow.

Sayonara

RIGA RIA 14:49 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Talk bids remain at 1.2320/00 with stops below 1.2300.GL

RIGA RIA 14:48 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
USDZAR shud read 6.43/44/6.38..sorry

Tallinn viies 14:48 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
I hope we have seen the high for today. 1,2345/50 held.
now important to get under 1,2280/85 for further move down to 1,2245/50., imho

RIGA RIA 14:47 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
USDZAR cud hold 8.43/44/8.38 range with good both sides flow....This morning has seen mixed flow on both sides of the market with investment banks on the offer and mixed names on the bid, market is going to be looking for some direction from inflation figures tomorrow..GL

BEIRUT MK 14:47 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
got stopped at BE for usdcad long

GOES B747 14:44 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
doggy wholetitout 14:41 GMT September 28, 2004

this is no joke !!!
easier for me to cut/paste.

btw, I placed stop @ 1.2180 /// even a broken clock is right two times a day; when it goes about real money I play safe.


gt

RIGA RIA 14:43 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
EURCZK expect capp 31.60 n return to 31.40/50 with med term tgt 30.80...GL

RIGA RIA 14:42 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
EURPLN agn capp 4.380 good offer zone, take short there for 4.3350 tgt.Investors are

waiting for Central Banks rate setting meeting on Wednesday to gain some guidelines for future monetary policy moves.



EURHUF cud hold 247.50/245.50 range...GL

doggy wholetitout 14:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:36 GMT September 28, 2004
yeah, the shark speaks. u want us all to take log possie so that some shark starts eating our stops. why thedetailed trade note of yours. lol

GOES B747 14:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD 14:33 GMT September 28, 2004

laugh and smile, I put money on that !!!

gt

doggy wholetitout 14:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 14:30 GMT September 28, 2004
or if reusable source of energy is started to use, lol.

GOES B747 14:36 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Bought USDCHF 1,500,000 1.2586 0.00 1.2567 30-Sep-04 28-Sep-04

gt

Dallas MD 14:33 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
LOL but so True!

GOES B747 14:27 GMT September 28, 2004
going long USD/CHF
reason: S-A-X-O bank calling for 1.2200
target: opposite to S-A-X-O fall forecast.

Global-View 14:32 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   

Re: Sydney EM 14:14 GMT September 28, 2004
Qindex view on the aud would be interesting

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Dallas MD 14:32 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable @ 1.8133 Tgt LOD 1.8104 Stp 1.8156 4 Hr, 1 Hr & 30 min charts signaling downtrend. Mauricio

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 14:32 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf has reacted on 1.2587 as forecasted, 1.2555 on air...

shanghai bc 14:30 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   

Aud/Jpy is slicing through .80 today..A change of medium-term bias on that front which means bulish medium-term bias for Aussie and Kiwi as well..Oil and Commodities are not going to fall like stone for coming years and decades,terrorists or no terrorists,speculators or no speculators..How big are they after all..Think of the demand from India and China..China was a massive exporter of Oil only several years ago..Now the second largest importer in the world and it is only the Beginning of the Mega-cycle in Oil and Commodities..China used to export massive amount of minerals in the past decades..Now imports some +30% of all basic metals in the world after using up all its home productions each year..Aagain,this is just a beginning.. All China's ports are like the scenes you see in Normandy Landing Operations in a film full of ships trying to load and unload those Oil and Commodities and finished products..Commodities and Oil prices are not going to drop in long-term charts unless China and India sudddenly disappear from the scene..What is the chance of that happening ..

GOES B747 14:27 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
going long USD/CHF
reason: S-A-X-O bank calling for 1.2200
target: opposite to S-A-X-O fall forecast.


gt

HK [email protected] 14:24 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Eventually market will pissoff of US numbers juggling and the USD will have to go down to save the economy, and better sooner than later. Market is tired of that "recovery" propaganda.

BEIRUT MK 14:20 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
move stop on short eurusd at 1.2343 BE

BEIRUT MK 14:19 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
short audjpy at 80.02 target 79.70

BEIRUT MK 14:17 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
move stop for long usdcad at BE

Dallas GEP 14:15 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Appears USD is being bought now , In at .7187 short on AUSSIE

Sydney EM 14:14 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Qindex view on the aud would be interesting

Dallas MD 14:10 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Back to normal after CC #'s

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 14:05 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
waiting for reaction but expecting 1.25

GOES B747 14:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
fwiw,

small piece of US positive news will ignite USD bull move against European ccys.
European ccys looking to step down from the highs (looks more like garbage mountain) speculators placed them.


gt

gold coast martin 14:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 13:52 GMT September 28, 2004
In the last 2 years commodities have been enjoying a boom due to high demand from developing countries,,,with current forecasts of world growth revised commodity demands fall off their current levels and plateau off..oil price currently is driven primarily by hedge funds and speculators with demand a step behind...demand will only dominate when you see ques at service stations and very high pump prices...right now we dont have that...g/t

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 14:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
worst than expected, the market is building short on dollar

Syd 14:03 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
What with the War , Hurricanes etc would have thought Confidence much lower its holding up quite well under the circumstances. JIMHO

Syd 14:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks everyone... think this is inline with expectation isnt it Conf Bd Sept Consumer Confidence Idx 96.8 V 98.7

Dublin Flip 13:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
right on 50bucks mate

Toronto YV 13:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
SYD,50.05.

Syd 13:56 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Can someone give me price of oil at present ?

Sydney gvm 13:52 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 13:37 GMT

not sure I can agree that these currencies have an "impending fate" based on their correlation with commodities - are you absolutely certain that commodities (incl. oil) are in some sort of blow off top or bear market bounce ? I aint.

gold coast martin 13:37 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
NYC 13:33 GMT September 28, 2004
I didnt..i just compared its current trading pattern and impending fate with the other commodity currencies....g/t

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 13:35 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Consumer Confidence index in 30 minutes
Usd/chf
buy at 1.2555 and 1.2545 for 1.26-->1.2640
sell at 12586 and 1.2596 for 1.2555--->1.25

Udine Cael 13:34 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Just one target left :)

Udine Cael 11:21 GMT September 23, 2004
EUR/$ above 1.2345 for 1.2370/80 - supp. 1.2190
GBP/$ above 1.8055 for 1.8110/30 - supp. 1.7865
AUD/$ next 0.7185/90 - supp. 0.7060

NYC 13:33 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast. Why do you refer to the euro as a commodity currency?

gold coast martin 13:33 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Yiasou athens leventi.....g/t

London ADK 13:30 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Athens. Thanks for the chat this morning.

Dallas GEP 13:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
C ya Athens

Athens 13:23 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
"See" you again sometime. Take care all, bye for today.

Athens 13:20 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 13:13, $/CAD resistance 1.2740, 1.2775, 1.2810-15. buying it at 1.2735 could be a bit risky. Good luck.

gold coast martin 13:20 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
commodity currencies like the euro are getting loaded and overweight on the current oil strength....recipe for disaster....when oil reverses the weight loss will be severe....current prices for commodity currencies present great entry levels for weekly gains....nzd 67 enter ..target 6585 {3 day trade}...aud enter 7178 target{7080... 2 day trade}////g/t

nyc jk 13:17 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
there's a reason why that news service is free on a lot of platforms, etc - you get what you pay for.

I also have 90/95 as pretty solid for now on topside for AUD, with stops over 00, so maybe a pullback to 40/50 in order.

Gothenburg XON 13:15 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Shorting AUD/USD, target 0,7145

wisconsin tim 13:15 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
they just want to go 2-2 =)

Ldn 13:13 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD TECHS: Short Trade Stopped For 11-pip Loss IFR

BEIRUT MK 13:13 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
long usdcad 1.2735 target 1.2790

Athens 13:13 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/$-- Anthing above 0.7165 today is above the level where my O/B zone (for the day) begins.

wisconsin tim 13:13 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
selling aud/$ here stops above 7210 tp open

BEIRUT MK 13:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd at 1.2343 target 1.229

zoo york options 13:11 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
any comments on NZDUSD for today and the effect of oil & gold price on this and the other commodity driven pairs? TIA

Ldn 13:11 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
London Tom but they just got stopped out of their short aud !!

Dallas GEP 13:09 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Interesting TOM that they went long without seeing if 7190 was going to break first

London Tom 13:03 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
IFR Forex watch just gone long AUD/USD 0.7185 S/L 0.7155
Target 0.7350

melbourne farmacia 13:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
london - don't forget iraq fatalities... 74 for sept thus far.

BANDUNG Ompung Forex 12:45 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
you better short the cable right here. you can put the air bag in 1.8162. i guarantee....no succes no pay. try 50 lot.ok..

Global-View 12:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
london 12:34 GMT September 28, 2004 - could you email us. Your email on file got bounced.

Athens 12:37 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Better call that support 1.8105-1.8090.

london 12:34 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
as i said yesterday when the aud was at 7110....

gold is rallying

treasury yields are falling

copper is at 6 month highs

oil multi year highs



this is not an environment where there will be any significant aud sell off.

Athens 12:34 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable-- The intermediate moderate resistance 1.8160-70 I mentined earlier (10:04 GMT) is still holding and might do the job. Nearest minor support now around 1.8105.

GOES B747 12:32 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
fwiw,

Consumer confidence this afternoon will be important for the Usd. It is expected to be unchanged. Any upside surprise will bring down the Eur/Usd. Any disappointment will put a support level on the Eur/Usd at 1.2315.

gt

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 12:26 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
speculative buy order on usd/chf set at 1.2545 offer

Dallas GEP 12:26 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
7190 is a key reversal point on AUSSIE.....This PROBABLY could hold for the time being and go back SHORT, AUD/USD and USD/CAD will normally move in tandem with each other in opposite directions

ICT ML 12:26 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
yeah GEP...barrier was also protecting a bunch of stops....could be a nasty move down from here if they keep this "abandon ship" stuff up on the $$$ that is going on right now.

That move up on euro put a crimp in my eur-gbp short I have been carrying forever again. It was just starting to look like it was going down.

I got to decide if I risk staying long $Y going into the data jungle or not now......

Budapest Daniel 12:23 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
thanks for your view martin

gold coast martin 12:18 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 11:35 GMT September 28, 2004
Daniel when i posted on that pair 2 days ago wednesday had a high possiblity of achieving that figure...however in such volatility i had to extend the timeframe to friday as per my last post .....g/t

Dallas GEP 12:17 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Well MArc, got your penetration or 1.2700 level on CAD my friend. Looks like we had some folks TP there

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 12:09 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 12:01 GMT September 28, 2004
No comments.You will call me "Master" soon....lol!

Plovdiv Gotin 12:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Brown 15/ Then what?1.2541/32/12..../

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 11:57 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
extra short orders at 1.2588 and 1.2597 still targetting 1.2555

GOES B747 11:52 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Saudia will increase output from M9.5 bpd to M11 bpd

gt

Dallas GEP 11:49 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks MArtin and ADK

London ADK 11:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP - this could help your gbp/jpy

London ADK 11:00 GMT September 28, 2004
China - Word around the campfire is that China will widen band by 2% this weekend. There is a pre-G7 meeting on fri apparently.

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 11:40 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Ready to cover short at 1.2555 offer. Waiting for new clues...

Helsinki iw 11:39 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Story hitting the wires China pledges to make yuan more flexible.

Budapest Daniel 11:35 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
martin, do you think that gbp/jpy will go down as low as 196 by the middle of this week?

gold coast martin 11:26 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS ..as far as gbp/usd PAIR is concerned 1.8077 is target by end of tonites session....g/t

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 11:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Reaction point on usd/chf at 1.2588, if not, 1.2550 is the next target.
with interim support at 1.2575

Dallas MD 11:23 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Cilose my Cable short for a net 20 pip profit. May short again @ 1.8143

gold coast martin 11:22 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 15:28 GMT September 26, 2004
Good evening....Trade of the week:Enter gbp/jpy at current levels and look for 19650-75 by wednesday...Volatile currency but since this pair is overloaded its only a matter of time before it tanks...lets call it a cyclone special...good trades next week.....
Above still applies....although the timeframe may be extended to friday to meet above target....g/t

Dallas GEP 11:14 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
MArtin, what is your view on Cable my friend????

SanFrancisco TG 11:11 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin - Keep spirits up, go buy some zinc vitamins, not the cold pills, the vitamins. It will boost your immune system dramatically to fight it.

Sydney Alimin 11:08 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
wow we have everything up at the same time...i wonder which one will give way first

Dallas MD 11:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, We have had quite a few cases of WNV in Texas. Take care of yourself & I hope you get well soon. Regards.
Mauricio

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 11:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf has opened below 1.2610, below the 50 ema on hourly and 15" chart. So, the general feeling remains pessimistic.

Antwerp Tom 10:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, WNV is half as bad as NFP, so get well soon
refua shlema

London ADK 10:45 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ML - Thanks for your kind words.

Haifa - I therefore think the options guys have a say up to a point, but nobody will stop this market if it gains momentum under these circumstances.

Eilat Dolphin 10:42 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
A few hours ago I was looking at a live chart and saw the euro at around 124.50. So I thought something big has happened while I was sleeping but couldn't find anything on the wires.

So I made the consious decision that I was dreaming.
It was the case. With high fever too: I just came up with West Nile Virus. The Doctor just said "We don't have time, there is nothing we can do, take more aspirin and lots of fluids."

The lethality for West Nile is around 3%, so you'll most probably be hearing from me again. ;^)

Melbourne Qindex 10:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

ICT ML 10:39 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
London ADK 09:52 GMT September 28, 2004
thanks for that observation, I learned something I had not really thought about before. So can I for future refference, next time $Y and cable are breaking out in the same direction, (which I have only been watching the Yen pairs closely for the past year), assume that the real mover will then be GbpYen in the same direction and play it strictly in that direction? I tell you I have an aversion to selling any yen pairs to begin with due to the nasty reactions it can incite out of Tokyo sometimes......

London ADK 10:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 10:28 - The way I see things 1) we have been working ourselves into tighter ranges over the summer. Most currencies seem coiled like a spring. Historically when these go they reach some significant targets. 2) Not many FX funds made any money so far. They are all looking for some performance and they are all looking for some trends. When these breakouts occur, they will want to be in it. This to my way of thinking, increases the possibility of follow through.

gold coast martin 10:35 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Good evening......look for a low of 7108 for aud while euro to trade down to 12255 ..by end of ny session
While yen is trading above 10950 a break of above 12385 will not be seen...g/t

Athens 10:32 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ADK, to be honest, when I said here in early 2004 that I was nor expecting to see any more trend in any pair till US electins, I had not anticipated such extremely tight ranges. I guess the top priority for many traders now, following this stagnation, is risk aversion rather than making a profit (at least it is my top priority). For sure, holding onto positions too long hasn't paid dividends in the last 6-7 months. Still managed to collect the occasional small pips here or there. Stay well and good luck to you. I am off now.

Dallas GEP 10:30 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Something seems to be brewing now in the USD/CAD kitchen Problem is I don't know whether to run to the kitchen and eat it or run out of the house!!! The GBP short possies with those tight stops yop me offer very good R/R guyd. Good luck

lugano f. 10:30 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
...ofcourse i also ope not to see thoose level....

lugano franco 10:29 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
what u think about plan to sell again around 1.2340 with same s/l?
or better not to increase exposure?


Haifa ac 10:28 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
London ADK 10:13 GMT //If option sellers want are big on selling premium for a while--the yen can stay narrow. We are at their mercy.

Tallinn viies 10:23 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
lugano franco 08:38 GMT - no. still over 1,2365

Dallas MD 10:23 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable @ 1.8137, Tgts 1.8127, 1.8117 & 1.8099

Stp 1.8151

U.K. J.B. 10:20 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Looking for a decent r/r trade sold cable 1.8140 as i have some reasonable res. up here and feel eur/gbp supp. at current levels 50 & 62 % fib. ret. just a short term trade i will be looking to square all positions ahead of the G7 meeting.

Athens 10:14 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Please read 108.90 instead of 198.90.

London ADK 10:13 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Athens - Think Flip pointed out first that the tigthest range previously was in Dec 1994 (200 pips). We all know what happened in the first three months of 1995.

Trust you are well Athens and GL


Global-View QIndex Special 10:13 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   

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Jakarta Wibawa_Id 10:11 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone....!

This is what I called the time nearest exhaustion of crossrate trading and will be continu to spot trading. So if we see that both of EURO and GBP has been going up nicely from cross rate side, the next step I predict that EUR and GBP would be applied on spot against us dollar.

I m still belive that the downfall of the greenback which is impacted from high level in oil price+ballooning dificit will be came sooner or later!

Just see the resistance for GBP$ 1.8165, 1.8240. The support are 1.8065 and 1.8005 for today. Also for EUR/$ resistance will be stalled around 1.2350 then 1.2415. Deeper support are laying on around 1.2275 then 1.2225.

Another indicator specially for trade in GBP is u have to monitoring XAU and BRT price. Those are in line with GBP trend momentum.

Now I want to just sit and watch the end of "Friends" movie episode. Hv a nice trade & GL everyone!

Athens 10:11 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
More specifically, re $/JPY September volatility, here are the ranges for this month in the past 5 years:

2003 117.70-110.10
2002 124.25-116.80
2001 127.05-115.80
2000 108.45-104.75
1999 111.40-103.25

This year (September) the range thus far is 108.90-111.70 i.e. less than three big figures.

Bandung Asti 10:07 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
raden
are you here?

Athens 10:07 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Hello ADK. Good comments earlier re the extremely tight range and break out. This has been the tightest September $/JPY range we've seen for some years.

Athens 10:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
An intermediate moderate cable resistance is 1.8160-70, the next 1.8210.

Bandung Asti 10:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
raden,if I look your gbp/chf level 2.2285, now was done
is is will impact to gbp/usd ?
TA

London ADK 10:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Morning Adam - Good to see you around.

London ADK 10:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Agree Sam

Dallas GEP 10:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
YES It would appear so ADK, but appearances can be very deceiving.

Athens 10:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
No doubt GBP/JPY has always been a very volatile cross, often overshooting a lot beyond what would look technicall reasonable, hence I have given it the name "demonic cross". For those still interested today, play around within 203.15-200.25 for the day, this being my O/B territory. A similar territory in EUR/JPY begins at 137.45. With such contras and if using multiple entries, follow two rules: (1) allow for wide intervals before next entry, (2) jeep ver flexible and nimbe with in-out trades without waiting for a particular average. Good luck everyone.

slv sam 09:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
not trading gbp but 1.82 today is possible imho.GT

London ADK 09:57 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
I take it you like living on the wild side then.

Bandung Asti 09:56 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
raden,is it possible gbp have founded top at 1.8139?
TA

Dallas GEP 09:56 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ADk, I agree with you..it is very dangerous to trade. I mention that over and over again to others in that regard.

Dallas MD 09:55 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Agree

Dallas GEP 09:48 GMT September 28, 2004
GBP can't long forever, see possible top for now at 1.8140/60 area

London ADK 09:52 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas I told you last week you are playing with fire....On a serious note, when dlr/jpy and cable break out of a tight range (dlr/jpy tightest is history for most of sept) one just don't mess with gbp/jpy shorts. Very dangerous trade that.

Dallas GEP 09:48 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Well gbp/jpy shorts are currently underwater but 1.2715 cad longs look ok at this time. GBP can't long forever, see possible top for now at 1.8140/60 area

Gen dk 09:33 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas MD 09:32 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD 09:16 GMT September 28, 2004
Reversed GBP/USD Breakout

Tgts 1.8136, 1.8146 & 1.8163 STP 1.8098

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 09:26 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf failed again to open above 1.2620, the stochastic has reached 100 and gave a sell signal. This configuration is "in line" with the general economic and geopolitical climat. 1.2597 is the break point. If pirces are below that level before the consumer confidence index, then there is a high probability to see 1.2550 then 1.25 in the next 24 hours....

Dallas MD 09:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Reversed GBP/USD Breakout

ICT ML 09:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Appears I inspired a bit of $CAD buying...got to give em an "A" for effort on this one. should have kept my mouth shut...LOL

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:10 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with gbp/chf when touch .2884, mayb eso many sellers wait there..

Dallas MD 08:55 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Short GPB/USD @ 1.8119 (Daily High) TGT 40 Pips STP 9 Pips
Retracement from high

KL KL 08:55 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ok reverse & short euryen at 137.25.....sl 15 above....so at worst I make 10 peanuts...here we go

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:53 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 08:02 GMT September 28, 2004
for today, sell level gbp at 1.8125
for usd/chf, better wait at 1.2639 or 1.2656 for action sell..

ICT ML 08:46 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
think someone is about to eat their 1.2700 option barriers on $Cad soon. Hope so it is getting pretty boring watching this 15 pip range lately.

Melbourne Qindex 08:46 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 08:43 GMT - Good afternoon! I am just concentrating on the majors.

Sydney Alimin 08:43 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
welcome back Qindex, what do you think of gbp/jpy? can it go all the way to 204 in near term, or some correction is needed? chart shows nice trend up

Gen dk 08:39 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lugano franco 08:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:02 GMT September 28, 2004

good morning viees, you mean that your stop is now uround those level?
thanks for advice and a good day

Melbourne Qindex 08:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

HK [email protected] 08:28 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
If I had the feeling since the morning that it's time to sell gold.
It may be the sign of an upward explosion. ????

nyc uk 08:26 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
5 minute 5 day chart

Syd 08:22 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Iran Oil Official Downplays Spike In Crude Futures Price says
Hedge Funds Contributing To Oil Rise,Impact Minor On Global Econ This Yr

gold coast miko 08:21 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
NYC uk. Thanks for you reply. But what is the 5m5d chart

Chicago Goofy 08:18 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coast miko 08:02 GMT September 28, 2004

Leave them alone till end of week? I dont see much coming news that would excite them.

nyc uk 08:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
for Cable I currently favor some downside to possibly 1.8080 where there is some support..possible H&S pattern developing on the 5m5d chart...business investment due out in 15 mins may give us some short term direction. a break of 1.8080 should give way to 8050 and it looks like cable bulls will be eyeing 1.8150 to the upside. GTall

gold coast miko 08:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Does anybody have have any thoughts on the direction of the GBP?USD and EUR/USD , I am at a complete loss with this pair

Los Angeles ss 08:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas -- what are your views on USD/CHF? Thanks.

Tallinn viies 08:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
euro still under yesterdays high. as long as 1,2315/20 contains it, I wouldnt be turning attention on buying.
target today at 1,2140/50

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 07:59 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Buy signal aborted on usd/chf. Ready to short if opens below 1.2620, add on short at 1.2636 and 1.2644 for 1.2550 --->1.25

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:57 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy.
sell when at 202.24..

Syd 07:57 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy me thinks so too

Chicago Goofy 07:50 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
It makes me feel that the Yen controller afraid of the G7 event so they do lift up the yen cross pairs for the dive.
All are overbought.
@[email protected]

slv sam 07:49 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
sold aud/yen at 79.82 target 78.50 s/l 80.40.GT

KL KL 07:48 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Good now adjusted sl to 137.25 from 137 and let it run to the "moon-cake"....festival. Looks like short covering will propel this one over the obvious high...hopefully all time high in my case....will keep adjusting sl as it move higher..gl gt

slv sam 07:45 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 08:19 GMT September 27, 2004
bought $/y at 110.83 target 111.80 s/l 110.40. GT

closed 80pips net profit.GT

Barcelona Tony 07:42 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Greg are you around???????

ICT ML 07:40 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
I bailed on that stupid gbp-jpy short and have bot it for 204.....thing is out of control now..

Moskow 07:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   

Reliable forex historical data
for trading system verification and precise technical analysis
Intraday data are presented since 1997

LAX-LGB SNP 07:37 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B 06:49 GMT

Ä/• weekly TL resistance comes in below 137.80 but am long after twin hanging men on daily
might reload ahead of lower TL near 136.70

nyc rgwat 07:35 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
any NZDUSD or USDJPY traders out there with a comment on where we are going from here? 111.50 is a big resistance level in the Yen..a break here should give way to 112 by Asian session tomorrow with oil holding above 50dpb. GT

Budapest Daniel 07:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
this gbp/jpy is a beast, just stopped out... :)

KL KL 07:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ok playing with the magician long eur yen at 137. sl 15 below looking for near 138.++..since so many are shorting it! Time to be contrarian today or maybe hit and run

Sydney Alimin 07:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
watchout, the yen pairs are playing the tricks again

martin, what's the chance of aussie going down today? any tip to short it?

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 07:03 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hi,
usd/chf is in buy signal; Long for 1.2536-->1.2544 then short for 1.25

FloridA vv 06:52 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 06:33 GMT September 28, 2004

Oh I see now. But anyway full moon means a lot for whitches and someimes for Forex.
That's probably the reason why I reestablished Usd/Cad longs @ 1.2750 yesterday. Still suffering, But gotta love my Usd/Jpy longs from 109.50 will keep it untill 110.50 stops are hit.
With Usd/Cad not sure, no clue, no nothing untill it breaks 1.3050 or 1.2650. In both cases its going to end up 300 pips more. But now it sits on 1.2680 support without even trying to break it, though gold and oil (Caddy friends) soared. But let us see what London will show us in a couple of hours.

Tacoma A B 06:49 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
here's a low risk spot to sell the euro/y... Any opinions on that play? Double top, looking for no break, and a reverse.

Chicago Goofy 06:43 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Is this a fake move against USD?

Sydney Alimin 06:33 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 06:23 GMT September 28, 2004

haha, no..it is because there is a celebration of the chinese tradition..the mooncake festival..

Nairobi TN 06:31 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi People!
Whats the strategy on cable today to pip raid? Thinking of buying dips?

TIA

FloridA vv 06:23 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 05:43 GMT September 28, 2004
My last post before NY close.
Too busy on this full-moon day.

Why is that AB, Full moon makes your teeth and hair grow or what?

hong kong nt 06:02 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 05:33 -- competitors are europeans..

hk ab 05:43 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
My last post before NY close.
Too busy on this full-moon day.
The simplest reason I am still prone to eur-bearish is that, euro countries are all in fire (High inflation, high unemployment and high euros = stagflation?). I would take gbp rather than euro if I turn to usd bearish camp at the moment.
Don't forget that you can use the money to buy a big mac in Swiz for two in US. (For those who likes funnymentals.)
Off now, happy trade and mid-autmun , esp. to you nt.

hk ab 05:33 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
nt// need further elaboration on your JR matter and why it's not higher dlr/jpy?
This e/j is just a toy of speculators, not having any grouds at all at the moment.

hk ab 05:31 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
nt// I expect a violent pull back from 137 if 137.15 doesn't break. Personally I give it 30 pips thresold i.e. 137.45.

hong kong nt 05:29 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
AB -- higher E/J may help JR to take a sustantial share of the bullet train network in China, it's a hundred billion USD big biz with long term steady cash inflow from maintainance contract, network expansion, system upgrade, knowledge transfer, etc, to JR, and likely to have LT bullish implications to JR share performance as well...

KL KL 05:23 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Looks like gold and oil have run preety hard now....something have to give soon and fwiw I think US$ will strengthen in a manner we will not understand. Looks like an interesting week ahead. Flat now and waiting to establish some possie soon...yen crosses looks enticing!!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 05:22 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon to all !!..

Barcelona Tony 05:15 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
good morning forum

hong kong nt 05:12 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Do you expect to see consolidation within 135-137?

hk ab 03:01 GMT September 28, 2004
If eur/jpy can't pass by 137.15+30 (thresold) in the coming days.... things get very stink....
Happy hunt all. Placed it at 137 short but can'f be filled.....

hong kong nt 05:09 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
HAPPY MID-AUTUMN FESTIVAL TO ALL THOSE WHO EAT MOONCAKE...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 04:26 GMT September 28, 2004
Incase any confusion that was for you mate.

Calabash TarHeel 04:40 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B 04:36 GMT September 28, 2004
Not knowing where you are short from or your r/r, I would expect .7170 to be ok for a s/l. Might not work for your risk management.
gl,gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:37 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
I will not disagree I have been through the same but we still have good info coming in and I am sure things will get much better in the FF. It up to us to fill it up with our analyses now and I am sure if we do that we will get our old members back to contribute again. I am glad you are still with us and I will look forward to your much needed analyses later mate. GL GT

Tacoma A B 04:36 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
yeah, short Aud/$. What's your opinion?

Calabash TarHeel 04:28 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Tacoma A B 04:10 GMT September 28, 2004
You are short Aud/$?

melbourne farmacia 04:26 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:08 GMT September 28, 2004
G'day OMIL, I've been in sleep mode for most of this year regarding my cable views. I'm finding the forum rather flat without quality analysis ( one can easily lose interest here reading continuous one liner fluff without any justification.)
Must say, I've been guilty of this in the past thou ...At this stage i'm sitting on Gbp, Gbp/Jpy & Aud....scaling out on up ticks... I'm waiting for cable to complete the top end of current channel like most players i assume..My feeling now if no penetration of 1.8113 after London open... expecting some retrace first. Will give u a run down later today.... GT

Ldn 04:11 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Consumer sentiment out today in the US

Tacoma A B 04:10 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
what's up boys, took that nap from watching Aussie Dollar. Well, is it sitting on support, or unable to break resistance? Would love some feedback on that one. Thanks in advance. I've got my stop just above previous high, so I'm in for another fifteen points to the upside, but I hope it doesn't make it too close.

wisconsin tim 04:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
closing that $/yen short doesn't look good

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 03:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver BC WLV 03:45 GMT September 28, 2004
Everyone changes tactics! most people know BOJ tactics now so we all should double careful as new unsuspecting means could may be used. That's why sharks are called sharks and we are no sharks

gt

TIA:-)

Vancouver BC WLV 03:45 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
BOJ has no comment... strange, in the past they are not shy to admit intervening in the market! In fact they report it just to give their intervention bucks a bigger boost.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 03:45 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy 03:16 GMT September 28, 2004
That's why GBP is called the beast buddy. and tiju...dont trade that way pal, stops depend on what timeframe you are trading on first of all and 2ndly how much risk you can absorb,of many other factors.just a humble help so that you dont mess up that FX account.

gt everyone.
TIA:-)

Tijuana 03:21 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
How many pips are normal to set a stop?

Chicago Goofy 03:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
My little confusion on recent market.

Crosses Yen reach the strange high while USD/YEN waiting for 111.40/112 major breakthrough. Technically speaking, USD/Yen is not in any trend but pushed by extreme market suspicion and maybe hidden control. I reckon the upward motivation for USD/YEN.

Combined with fake effect of oil price on JPY(Last hit in Aug didnt bring the yen down) and dollar depreciation from G7. I dont know if we can short it at resistant level for a decent trend coming next week or so.

Support and resistance from 4hr chart: 110.84/111.45

Also from what I observed, GBP seems to go up with greater probability.

Thanks for your comments.

hk ab 03:01 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
If eur/jpy can't pass by 137.15+30 (thresold) in the coming days.... things get very stink....
Happy hunt all. Placed it at 137 short but can'f be filled.....
eur/gbp started its journey confirmed by a break of .6725....

Ldn 02:24 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Oil prices daily technicals now extremely overbought, increasing probability of correction Suggests caution in opening new longs now, players should use support at 48.37 as pivot point that would signal retracement to secondary support in 45.30-46.06 area; adds old ascending triangle at 43.53 is tertiary support.
RBC Capital Markets

Melbourne Qindex 02:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

nyc jk 01:48 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ML - not shorting GBP here, will look to buy on a dip again, probably 1.8030 ish if seen. Next wave of cta type buyers in the AUD will be .72 + so probably put your stop around there and see how it goes I guess. re you G-7 JPY trading, as painful as it was, it sounds like you learned some good lessons there, so think of it as tuition! seriously though, I bet you don't average a losing game anymore after that, that alone will pay for your losses many times over in the coming years. I've certainly paid my share of tuition over the years, sometimes you just have to learn the hard way. have a good night.

Dallas GEP 01:44 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Ok all this consolidation typically precedes some quick movements. The MOST important thing in my view is to predetermine what you might do if positions turn against you drastically. It eliminates ALOT of stress if you have a plan in place to deal with the WORST case scenario. Be aware of the support and resistance points on the pairs you have possies on and which pairs typically move in opposite directions of the ones you are already in. If you have multiple positions it is better if all of them are not going the same direction (ALL USD bullish for instance). IF you get frustrated don't be afraid to ask for help because we ALL get in losing positons at least now and then.

Ldn 01:34 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
China Devt Bk Has US$1.6B Orders For USD Bond
rts.

nyc jk 01:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex- ALL the trendfollowing models made good money on that JPY move, of course they needed to because it was just chop chop chop 115-119 garbage in the months preceding it.

ICT ML 01:25 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 00:56 GMT September 28, 2004
muchos gracias JK.......I believe like most all my recent trades I have jumped the gun on selling the Aussie and have to just keep it within site and reason.

Nice work on the GBP. You reloading lower or trying to sell strength now? My bias is now higher still based on the weekly / daily charts but dont know where I'd enter yet with these two "challenges- AUD and GBP-YEN" I currently have.........

Ldn 01:22 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Japan MOF Official:No Comment On If Intervened Overnight

Spotforex NY 01:21 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
last year Sept G-7...my models worked sooooo well.....Jay said it would be in the 'hall of fame' LOL

Spotforex NY 00:16 GMT September 18, 2003
a rare Far East posting by Spot....My daily Yen models seems poised to give a signal on the close of Business on Thursday...It favors a strong Yen if confirmed....play the chart breaks on all time frames today....starting with a sub 115.90 down to 115.50...

Spotforex NY 15:13 GMT September 18, 2003
GVI Jay 15:10 - it may be some time before a 116 handleis ever seen again.....

Spotforex NY 14:24 GMT September 18, 2003
Yen crosses have been previously led by the European component...with a daily close below 115.50 - that scenario could change if yen cross move lower (stronger yen)...

Spotforex NY 14:21 GMT September 18, 2003
FWIW - I am eyeing to see if 115.50 is not violated on the close now. That sets forth my doom and gloom outlook for Dollar yen....risk a big fig to make 4-5 big figs...



LA fxnew 01:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
anybody long cable from here ?

thanks

ICT ML 01:16 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 00:54 GMT September 28, 2004

YES it was. And the gap up in Eur-usd and Gbp-usd

I was the arrogant SOB telling everyone there was no way in helll the BOJ was going to let 115 fail and anyone short $Y was a moron playing with fire.....notice I try to not be arrogant anymore:-)

Imagine watching your charts go crazy early Sunday afternoon CST, and desperately calling your dealers...only to be told by some smart a*s at the desk that "we aren't taking ANY orders until we officially open..call back in a few hours".....But the real damage was done when I assumed the GAP would close within the week "like ALL GAPS do" and kept buying U$D up for the filling of the gap move which never came......huge mistake and lack of judgement on my part.

The G7 event last fall was the catalyst for the huge sustained moves we saw through Jan 04' IMHO.

houston st 00:58 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   

TIM -- after spending trillions of yen, the MOF let the yen pairs go into freefall, and the rest is history...go back and look at the charts - it's too painful for me...good trades.

Singapore Sfx 00:57 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
yes tim

nyc jk 00:56 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ML - re our chat earlier, some decent sized AUD/JPY buying out of Tokyo took the AUD up tonight but done now and some Aussie corp selling capping, probably a bit of a pullback from here to lower .71's . out of the long GBP now fwiw. good luck.

wisconsin tim 00:54 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
was last year's G7 the sept gap in $/YEN

houston st 00:53 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   

ML -- think you hit the nail square on the head about intraday stuff...the green-felt jungle would certainly be alot more fun...enjoyed your comments about last year's G7, as I "got absolutely hammered" myself...never been caught so off-guard in my life with a fx trade...took awhile to make it back, and don't want to ever experience that again...my book will be flat prior to the first cork popping at this year's event...good trades to you.

wisconsin tim 00:41 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, daily indicator on AUD/$, AUD/YEN and AUD/NDZ just bounced down. Might be low r/r to sell aud/$ up here

ICT ML 00:38 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
OMIL......well there just hasn't been a whole lot to be posting about the past few months other than $CAD IMHO. I have pretty much stopped the intraday stuff other than to add to good medium term swing trades at good levels.

The intraday stuff lately was becoming a crap shoot and to be honest if I'm shooting craps I'm going to be in Vegas surrounded by perfectly tan hostess / goddesses wearing next to nothing, not sitting in my office pulling my hair out.... :-)

TJ.....I think I am adding to the long anywhere around 111 before London is in for a run at the 111.5 barriers later. This gbp-jpy short I took is not turning into what I had in mind though (yet).

GA TJ 00:30 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 23:23 GMT September 27, 2004
I have no idea what the BOJ is going to do. I just remember all the intervention last fall. FWIW I too am long this pair. I also placed an order to add to it at 110.80.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:26 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Even though there is a bullish channel for eur/usd since the beginning of this month for intraday and mid term charts I still have this pair in a bearish channel on the weekly indicators and within the (Bermuda triangle) so expect range trading until 1.2390-2400 and 2460-80 is taken out. I know I have mentioned this before but the triangle on the weekly charts is a bullish symmetrical triangle something to think about as the triangle closes the range every day IMHO. GL GT

Gen dk 00:22 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 00:17 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Good point ATHENS, I guess I look at it from the viewpoint that all chart prices are BIDS not OFFERS.

Dallas GEP 00:15 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Well with 201.55 being hit, I am in short some lots on GBP/JPY there

wisconsin tim 00:10 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 9/28/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
9/27/2004 AUDUSD 0.7202 0.7127 0.7195 0.7074
9/27/2004 EURGBP 0.6808 0.6768 0.6830 0.6770
9/27/2004 EURUSD 1.2352 1.2263 1.2362 1.2216
9/27/2004 EURYEN 137.63 136.41 137.65 135.33
9/27/2004 GBPUSD 1.8194 1.8052 1.8165 1.7987
9/27/2004 GBPYEN 202.73 200.70 202.55 198.99
9/27/2004 NDZUSD 0.6719 0.6651 0.6713 0.6611
9/27/2004 USDCAD 1.2749 1.2635 1.2803 1.2645
9/27/2004 USDCHF 1.2640 1.2552 1.2686 1.2534
9/27/2004 USDYEN 111.70 110.89 111.79 110.31

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:08 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
It would be nice to get Farmaciaís comments on cable too. He has been missing in action for to long IMO. ;-)

Athens 00:04 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ML, it depends on your time horizon. Personally, although i favour the long side on this pair, I am not sure it can easily tackle some fairly strong static resistance levels such as 111.45 and 112.00-05 with 112.45-50 a really tough one if up there. But I am talking about this week only. Good luck to you. P.S. The Yen crosses could backfire, too.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:03 GMT September 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 22:30 GMT September 27, 2004
Good to see your comments here more often. I agree on that assessment for gbp/usd. I usually donít talk about cable but I also have a buy signal on my system. With intraday indicators in O/B area and a good resistance point at 1.8140-50 the longs here have to be with caution. I expect a dip to at least around the 1.8050-8030. This bullish move is still within the channel until 1.7900 is broken IMHO. GL GT

 




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