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Forex Forum Archive for 09/30/2004

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ICT ML 23:55 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
WOW..they gave me a 10 big figure spread to deal $Y 114 or 104

GVI john 23:51 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Tankan +26 better than +24 expected

ICT ML 23:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
WTH....my platform will not let me put in a sell stop order on $Y at 109.90. They will let me sell it at 105.90 though....geee thanks...

GVI john 23:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Still waiting for Tankan in 5

Toronto YV 23:42 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
thanks folks!GT.

Austin rb 23:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
jpy core cpi down.1 as expected

ATL MA 23:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Toronto -- core CPI down .1%...about as expected depending on your forecast

ATL MA 23:37 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
AH! you're right...i looked at the tv schedule and it said "8 -- Presidential Debate", but apparently that was just the "pre-game" type stuff...i looked at another schedule and it is more clear...all apologies...9 EST is right for the actual debate. Isn't it a trip the way they are building this thing up? They're tailgating!

GVI john 23:36 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
in 15 mins 23:50 GMT

Toronto YV 23:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
did the JPN data meet expectation ? thanks .

GVI john 23:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
MA-- I believe it is 1-1/2 hrs or 9 PM eastern time 01:00 GMT.

ATL MA 23:23 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
24:00 GMT, that is...

Ldn 23:23 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
houston st ok thanks

ATL MA 23:21 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
...about 35 minutes from now

houston st 23:20 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

Ldn -- I believe it starts @ 01:00 gmt...gl/gt.

Ldn 23:17 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
What time does the Debate start ??

houston st 23:13 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

Dallas GEP 22:09 --thanks..I'm looking to buy this pair myself...good trades.

Sydney EM 23:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Australian Dollar Rises to Two-Month High as Metals Prices Gain

chicago cal 23:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
if anyone is looking for a simple trade sell usd/cad below 1.2570 for 1.2500

the goose has not flown this lo in about ten years or so

Austin rb 23:02 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LA
Are you allowed to answer that on this forum by name

wisconsin tim 23:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
some people could come out preety good:

As is our policy, censored will honor all stop-loss, take-profit and limit orders. We will retroactively execute these orders using the most favorable rate that occurred during the time of outage. Please be patient for these executions to occur, as it may take 4-6 hours for the orders to be executed retroactively.

If you do not wish us to execute SL/TP/LO orders, please email us right away to [email protected] We'd appreciate it if you could put the term "Don't execute" into the subject line.

LA fxnew 22:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
can someone recommend a good chart program??? (fast in real time)

Thanks

Bruxville Jim 22:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
22:36//
There was an attack on their server today.
See: http://www2.o*a*n*d*a.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=16;t=002585
The company's president explained the issue there. gl.

Austin rb 22:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LA
heard major server problem most of day

Calabash TarHeel 22:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 22:36 GMT September 30, 2004
does anyone know what happened to oandaaaa?

No problem here.

LA fxnew 22:36 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know what happened to oandaaaa?

Gen dk 22:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Austin rb 22:24 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Tanken expected to be not good and G7 going to push for higher asian ccys. could bad tanken be priced in to a larger degree than usual and response muted with G7 pending

Ltn th 22:22 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Andras 22:09. Disagree re audusd funys. Like normally you have to look deeply if relying on them. As I posted yesterday the data had to be discounted by election effect. There are a number of other irems connected with election initiatives many of which are not yet officially announced that will set a very firm tone. Energy area is prominent and may bite into eur and yen.

Dallas GEP 22:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ST you asked me about usd/chf and I answered with usd/cad stuff , SORRY!! Well as far as usd/chf goes I was kind of watching 1.2450 like everyone else for a possible LONG but I think we MIGHT see 1.2430 or so as a low THEN a LONG

Pecs Andras 22:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Yesterday's market showed again that we better forget funnymentals in true fx. Everything was purely technically and sentiment-driven. The session started with worse than expected Aussi data, and aftrer a short dip Aussi started longing nicely. The US data was much better than expected later, while the CAD data was worse, still USD/Cad fell more than 100 pips. And all the rest.
So back to charts, supp/res. levels and the rest...

kranj 22:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
not fx related but will help to kill time before tankan... Reuters story....

00:03 01Oct2004 RTRS-Merck options' spike before Vioxx news questioned

By Doris Frankel
CHICAGO, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Heavy buying of bearish options on Merck & Co. a day before it pulled its key arthritis drug Vioxx off the market is raising eyebrows among options market players.
Some traders appear to have scored big on the bombshell news, which wiped out $27 billion of Merck's market value. The day before, these lucky few appear to have bought put options giving them the right to sell what is now a $33 stock for $42.50. The transactions gave them a combined tidy windfall of about $2.7 million.
An unusually large number of those October 42.5 puts were traded Wednesday afternoon, prompting questions about whether some investors were tipped off before the Vioxx withdrawal was announced on Thursday morning.
"It appears that these options were purchased...on Wednesday in anticipation of the Merck announcement this morning," said Oppenheimer Co.'s chief options strategist Michael Schwartz. "So what appeared to be a surprise to Wall Street is not a surprise to the few that purchased these puts."
A total of 2,919 of those puts changed hands on Wednesday. That is roughly 17 times the average daily volume of that class of option since August, according to data compiled by options advisory firm Schaeffer's Investment Research.
"This was definitely a statistically significant large amount of volume for this particular option," said Andrew Stout, Schaeffer's quantitative analyst.
Wednesday's spike in those bearish Merck contracts stood out even though the combined overall options volume on Merck stood at around 10,125 contracts, close to the daily average.
Further, the options were well out of the money at the time. Each contract gave the buyer the right to sell 100 shares of Merck at $42.50 by mid-October. On Wednesday, Merck shares traded in a tight range of $44.64 to $45.07, and the stock had not traded as low as $42.50 in nearly 10 months.
But the investors who accumulated these puts hit the jackpot. The price of puts typically goes higher as the underlying stock falls.
On Wednesday, the October 42.5 puts were trading at 10 cents each. They closed Thursday at $9.50 a contract, yielding an overnight bonanza of more than $2.7 million for Wednesday's unknown buyers of the 2,919 contracts, Schwartz said.

((Editing by M.E. Miller; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]; [email protected]; 312-408-8750))

Pecs Andras 22:05 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP
I hoe it will SHORT! LOL

Dallas GEP 22:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Ausiie will SHORT not LONG is what I meant dammmitt

Honolulu ck1 21:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell me what this means... please.... and what is currently chinas fx policy???

Reuters is reporting that a participant at a meeting between U.S. and
Chinese officials indicated that the U.S. will act "as aggressively as
necessary" to get China to reform its FX policy. The report goes on to say that
U.S. Treasury Secretary made the case for China to move towards a more flexible
exchange rate at a faster pace. The comments are sure to heat up the debate on
whether or not FX will be one of the main issues at G7

Dallas GEP 21:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ST, well to tell you the truth I was running a stop manually because my GREAT platform provider hunts them and it shorted so fast it got past where I would have normally stopped it out at (1.2645). But 1.2590 provide great support for time being and since I think AUSSIE will long THEN usd/cad SHOULD get me out at 1.2665

Dallas GEP 21:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Targets are .7220 (initial on AUD/USD)
1.2665 on USD/CAD
.6815 on EUR/GBP

Ldn 21:53 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's president, has implied that Taiwan could hold a referendum on independence, in a statement that appears to reverse his recent softer stance towards China
FT. UK

Pecs Andras 21:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP
I am also short the aussi, with a bit worse average (7249)
What is your target? Mine is 7220/25

houston st 21:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- what are you doing on usd/chf? tia and good trades.

Dallas GEP 21:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
OK summary on present possies:
Short on AUS/USD average .7260
LONG on USD/CAD average 1.2645
SHORT on EUR/GBP .6850

SF MRZ 21:33 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Was looking to short Eur/$ at 1.2255 and 1.2338 but had to cut and reverse. Target now looks like 1.2689 before shorting again. Downside pip possibilities to capture from 1.2689, 1168pips- 1.1521, 721pips- 1.1968, 216pips- 1.2473.

jkt-aye 21:28 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, what's the forecast for tankan ?

Dallas GEP 21:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Tankan Report is out at 23:50 JPY pairs can move a couple hundred pips on this one

yip peee 20:33 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
dollars are friggin' cheap guys...so are 1.2500 no-touches

Don't You Hate Archives 20:24 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya Medallion 20:03 GMT September 30, 2004
What I find funny is peoples in this forum always bearish with Euro thinking that the Euro is going to 1.19-1.15 :)

Yes that is very, very funny, wonder who would ever think that?

Surabaya Medallion 09:35 GMT July 31, 2004
It seems we must wait for next Friday Employment Report and 10 August FOMC meeting as yesterday news is neutral and in the meantime had better play short EUR 1.19-1.21 range.

LOL

Syd 20:12 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya Medallion I remember that well - it didnt help the aussie either

Surabaya Medallion 20:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Well, in May 1998, my country "Rupiah" is going from 2500 to 15000 and has since recovered to 9000. So a 70% depreciation is nothing compare to 4% - 20% on USD for me :)

John Kerry 20:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
You see, I actually did trade for the dollar before I traded against it....

Syd 20:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh was going to sell aud coming into Asia but looks like your 73+ could possibly be seen first cheers

Syd 20:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML thats true they dont make the headlines in the FT or Wall street Jounal etc

Medallian as we all know everything has its time in the sunshine while the market lets it.

John Kerry 20:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Those were someone elses dollars I threw back over the fence, and they weren't really dollars, just paper....and I actually didn't not throw them before I did throw them

ICT ML 20:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
John Kerry 19:50 GMT September 30, 2004
And let's not forget that I fought in Vietnam, therefore it logically follows that I would be an exceptional fx trader

But then didn't I see you burning and throwing your dollars over the fence and calling FX traders a bunch of degenerates and scumbags whose only purpose in life is to inflict pain on the people of poor undeveloped countries at the direction of government officials in all levels of the Treasury and White House.......LOL

wisconsin tim 20:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
any thoughts on YEN going into Tankan today?

Surabaya Medallion 20:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
It doesn't pay to be dollar bull this past month especially after Mr Greenspan concerned about U.S deficit. What I find funny is peoples in this forum always bearish with Euro thinking that the Euro is going to 1.19-1.15 :) Anyway, 1.24x looks toppish.

Surabaya Medallion 20:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
It doesn't pay to be dollar bull this past month especially after Mr Greenspan concerned about U.S deficit. What I find funny is peoples in this forum always bearish with Euro thinking that the Euro is going to 1.19-1.15 :) Anyway, 1.24 looks toppish.

ATL MA 20:02 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
woah! In my view it is a little early to be talking about a dollar crisis! Dollar slides 100 pips on a thin day and we're already talking about the end of the dollar as we know it...come on guys, we've seen this before. Perspective, perspective.... I"m not discounting the idea, but the dollar has seen a lot worse days than this! When eurusd hits 1.5000 and keeps going then we can start talking about a potential dollar crisis...all of course, in my very humble opinion....

USA EURO 19:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

http://funny.ansme.com/politics/bush/build.html

Livingston nh 19:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Syd - looks like we might get a test of the AUD around .73 - I agree with you on the no devaluation talk coming out of G-7 - not because of the election but because it makes no sense at these levels - Who would be in favor?

ICT ML 19:56 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
SYD I agree, I mentioned that awhile back. But I think the only pairs that that applies to are the Euro and Yen. Nobody would care if the headline was "dollar gets slaughtered by the Brazillian Real"......but its a psychological thing I think...Europe and Japan (former enemies) against us............

SanFrancisco TG 19:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
My extreme low barrier for the week is 1.2350 +/-.

Currently still under pressure in my eyes closing NY today. Maybe we get a pull up, I'm not in yet.

John Kerry 19:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
And let's not forget that I fought in Vietnam, therefore it logically follows that I would be an exceptional fx trader

prague viktor 19:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:12 GMT:thanks mate for ur answer,since 09/11 whenever i watch such move on the chf Im worry,for that I ask u about the sfr,btw this from the local bank a lot of orderes to sell usd from normal people and from big company they didnt see such kind of sell fever since 2002,and all the talk is about china and G7 G/L G/T

John Kerry 19:43 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Let's face it...Sellers at 1.5000 made the wrong trade at the wrong place at the wrong time. When I am a trader, I will never do that....

Syd 19:42 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
One thing for sure, there wont be any statements regarding devaluation of the USD mention in the Press of late, last thing that is wanted is a Dollar crises 4 weeks out from US election .

nyc jk 19:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LOL, John. Look forward to seeing you debate yourself tonight.

John Kerry 19:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
They I would of flip-flopped and sold at 1.1550

John Kerry 19:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
If I had been a trader, then I would have bought Cable at 1.5000. It was stupid and irresponsible for traders to sell Cable there. I never would have done that. I would have made only good decisions....

ICT ML 19:30 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
JK...well all I can say is that if I pulled that stuff there are any number of GV posters and lukers with first hand knowledge who could come in and shoot me down:-)

On another note, this summer I decided to kick the cafffine addiction. I had done the same about a decade ago as a corporate monkey and man it felt good while it lasted back then.

So this summer I went totally caffine free beverages and it was a litteral constant headache for about a month and a half. But now that is gone and I feel great, can think clearly, sleep soundly, etc.......only problem is now I can't pull those 18 hour trading stints anymore, and I really need 8 hrs sleep to function instead of 4. So I miss many of the market events because I can't keep my eyes open and need sleep. I have slept through both of the huge GBP moves yesterday and today. I need to readjust my trading schedule to include more NY time and less Asia time.

Well hopefully we are seeing a breakout and $CAD was leading the way.

ATL MA 19:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
..but regardless of whether eurusd bullish or bearish, the divergence suggests that when the pair has established a top, we'll probably see a good drop...if the market is truly bull, then it will only correct probably...maybe 100 to 150 pips. If this is not a true bull move, it could go even further down. Guess it all depends on how many buyers there are on dips!

ATL MA 19:25 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
yeah on the bars...pull up a 4 hour...we've got a higher peak but the bars lower than were on the previous peak....this indicator on this pair in this time frame has been fairly reliable for me in recent months....for example, on the same chart, look at the peak on August 9, then the following peak diverged, pair went from 1.2400 on down to the 1.2000 area pretty quickly.......or the August 31 peak followed by the Sept 10 peak, diverged, dropped (corrected at least) from 1.2300 to about 1.2120........further to the left of the chart you can find other examples, even a double divergence

romania cristi 19:21 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
does anybody know what time it will be the g7 meeting?thanx.

Tacoma A B 19:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ATL:
I don't see the divergence on the macd, is it only on the stokes?

nyc jk 19:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ML - c'mon man, you are ruining the character of the forum, you're not supposed to be admitting to losses after the fact, you should be coming in saying "went long GBP at 1.7960 today friends" now that its 150 pips higher LOL. Seriously though, nice trade on the CAD, you have been nailing that one, will have to change your nickname from the "Beastmaster" to the "Goosemaster" now. gl

Syd 19:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Excellent article GV.. especially coming from Dollar Bear.

Global-View Research 18:26 GMT September 30, 2004
Is Weak Dollar Trade Back? (FXA)

Gen dk 19:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

jkt-aye 19:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
any suggestion for stp Revdax ? maybe 109.60 ? Thx for inform me your special recipe. GL

ICT ML 19:02 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
What a screwy day its been. Tried the trend following thing on cable which is a fancy term for sold the bottom....but realized it was not a good move in time and was able to minimize the damage. The 4 hr charts looked good for 1.7850 at the time....oh well.

Sold $CAD on the break on an entry order as well. The fib projection targets from this last move from 1.3030 area to 1.2675 are 1.2565> 1.2451> 1,2308> The big picture fib target is 1.1600.

This week has been a bummer overall. But it is nice to finally see a real $$$$ dominated move where all $ pairs were moving in unison. DOn't think it was just monthly fixing either, so follow thru tommorrow is very critical to keep this fund traders dream alive.



van revdax 18:53 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Today's Special(Sept 30)//Buy $/JY

ATL MA 18:52 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
well I use a variety of indicators, one of which was just mentioned by Wellington...MACD...I like to trade divergences. By the way, Wellington, eurusd also showing divergences big time on 4 hour and mildly on daily...
I like to use moving averages also, RSI, DMI, and of course, the good ole trendlines...

wellington am 18:47 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP houry stochastics showing bearish divergance.

Tacoma A B 18:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
that's a good point. Since I broadened my horizons from stocks (as a technical player) I've had such a hard time with the t/a and how accurate you have to be (given the high leverage). What methods do you use?

ATL MA 18:36 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
AB -- the market doesn't even realize what it's doing in real time half of the time. When yoiu read comments after the fact, the market tends to use news or other things to justify its short term moves...Like the post that said bad data this morning saw the dollar sell off....first, the sell off nearly peaked about 45 minutes before any data was released..second, the data wasn't that bad..some was actually pretty good. Data had nothing to do with it in my view...One thing I can tell you is that volume was reportedly thin being at the months end, and thin markets create erratic movements...the G7 meeting is potentially an event risk for the dollar, so many traders probably unloaded their dollars going into it, may buy them back after it....but there is probably no one single reason for the dollar slide today.
the market just does what it does...that's why I tend to take a mostly technical approach...that way you can see what the market is really doing rather than what you think it should do based upon one piece of news or the other.

Tacoma A B 18:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I'm in long on dollar canada from 2605. I liked the candle on the hour chart. Got about a 1/4 risk reward on this one, so I'm happy with it from these levels.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:30 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Oenda seems to be back up but very very slow for those using this service! Guess some poor sap bet the farm the wrong way and was a tad upset.

Model hi for eur/usd 1.2433 for this week.....nice place to go short and if we close above 1.2450 reverse and up up and away!

SanFrancisco TG 18:26 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Probabilities finally in gear for $CAD purchase 2615 +/-. Problem is the idea doesnt feel too hot right now.

Global-View Research 18:26 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Is Weak Dollar Trade Back? (FXA)

While I am no chartist, the strongest argument for the weak dollar trade resuming for the next several quarters so far is technical (for many, not all chartists). It is lower because it is lower. It is hard to find hard fundamental reasons to explain the timing for what appears to be a serious break out of the range (euro/dollar for sake of argument) since the early spring. The US economy has all the vital signs pointing to growth, albeit pace is still in question. Surely Chicago PMI in September today argued in favor of a faster pace of growth...the Greenspan view...and a stronger dollar. But PMI and ISM are hardly conclusive data points on the strength or pace of the recovery. And surely with the all important September payroll data a little over a week away, think most fundamentally-oriented traders would prefer to withhold judgment on the economy and hence willingness to sell dollars (hold short dollar positions) on a sustained basis is not there...not yet...See full story in our Research Section CLICK HERE

Tacoma A B 18:24 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
is there anywhere to sign up, or visit that will keep me abreast of the events on a world scale that will effect the market? I know I've got so much to learn, but where can I at least get a chance on stuff like this in real time instead of realizing it like five hours later.

SanFrancisco TG 17:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
and G7

Vancouver BC WLV 17:47 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Good reading on USD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/ridley092804.html

SanFrancisco TG 17:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
A B - Economic data not hot, risk aversion considering debate tonight and potential for terror, end of month stuff for firms, high oil a little, technical failure to the upside.

Tacoma A B 17:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
why is the dollar losing to everything? What did I not see? Big moves today involving the dollar and we're on the losing side of all of them. What happened?

Udine Cael 17:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:25 GMT / Hey I didn't start this, so why don't you put a sock in it?

That 'masterpiece' posted at 17:12 GMT - so funny.

Sydney Alimin 17:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
maybe this is too early to say but there is a possibility of large double bottom forming in the aud/usd daily chart, need 0.7350/0.7400 taken out to confirm this

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:25 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Udine Cael 17:00 GMT September 30, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:51 GMT / If I had a crystal ball and told you the outcome, you'll still be scared to pull the trigger.

Dunno what yur gettin' at pal, I did my trade for the day, but thanks for the excellent trading commentary, I'll be sure to watch myself from now on based soley on your expert advice. My trigger seems to be happily connected to my bank account however, doubt if I'd want to change my shooting habits much at this stage.

FALLS PB 17:19 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Toronto YV 17:10 GMT September 30, 2004
JT, they are down for hour .

vienna xxx 17:10 GMT September 30, 2004
yes, no connect to server (customer service +1 212 858 7690)

NY JT 17:06 GMT September 30, 2004
Is anyone trading with o*a*n*d*a?

/// discovered there is a hacker floating around disrupting platform servers and demanding $5K - was told the FBI may have pinpointed

NY JT 17:17 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 17:15
Thanks

Bruxville Jim 17:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
NY JT 17:06 GMT // Yes. Their server is down currently :(

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:12 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Victor//From a chartist point of view the USD/CHF chart expectedly is a mirror image lately of E/$ which to me means a few days of levelness then back up to $/CHF 1.26 if the late blocky up down pattern will persist. On a longer term point of view the chartist looking at patterns would predict 1.22 by Dec-Jan. I am not a soothsayer, anything I say here is just another posting. Trade on YOUR PROPRIATORY indicators and gut feelings.

Ones who disagree with the above would applaud a trend change happening sooner than I see it...and for them they see a trend change in Dec/Jan that is USD bullish...again, we're playing here..those crystal balls haven't arrived.

Myself I look at the 3 yr. €/$ chart (even tho the € is just morphed) to get a bigger picture of a supposed trend change coming up. After year-end US econ will likely be seen as well on the road to strengthening therefore USD will climb in value against other c'ncys. To bear this out, watch for a flag...if we will see two future large double peaks in the E/$ 1 year chart, peaking at 1.30 or higher, the second being lesser, then look for $ strengthening on a continual 3-4 year incline to parity with € in 2008. Realize this is from chart playing & observance of global economic cycling.

Toronto YV 17:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
JT, they are down for hour .

vienna xxx 17:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
yes, no connect to server (customer service +1 212 858 7690)

NY JT 17:06 GMT September 30, 2004
Is anyone trading with o*a*n*d*a?

GER ad 17:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Long USD/CAD at 1.2597
Risking 50 pips loss for 100 pips gain.

ATL MA 17:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Crystal balls...I've got two balls and they both got kicked this morning...hard LOL. Now that I've got my beer in hand, I've got to defend my man Gold Coast...I think he may be pretty close on the mark. The dreamer is the one looking at the market right now and dreaming that the dollar will keep falling and falling and falling and his profits will never end. The realistic approach is to bet on the range holding for now. Sure there are reasons to sell the dollar now, but there are also reasons to be cautious about it and reasons to buy it as well...no need to be critical about one or the other.

Sydney Alimin 17:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
this is not normal, sudden rush in gold buying too
i'd rather be very careful entering a position, it's better to wait till after g7 meeting, gl guys

Udine Cael 17:00 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:51 GMT / If I had a crystal ball and told you the outcome, you'll still be scared to pull the trigger.

hong kong nt 16:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
AB -- scaled out 10% aud at .727..

hong kong nt 16:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Udine Cael 16:45 -- both of you could be winner, you may buy aud from .68 and martin may sell aud from .80, all is a matter of trading time frame..

Syd 16:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh aud well overbought but could stretch to 73 i suppose in this runnaway market

prague viktor 16:53 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez :maybe its just a G7syndrom,and we will see 1,233-1,228,but please have look on the chf and tell me what u think about it ,is it just a normal reaction ?!,and abuot china if bc range 1,20-1,25 still valid so we will be back to the range G/T

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:51 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Udine Cael 16:45 GMT September 30, 2004// Do you have any more "crystal balls" amigo? I need to buy a set; my opaque ones are difficult to decypher.

gold coast martin 16:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Udine Cael 16:45 GMT September 30, 2004
Dreaming has given me lots of money this year...dont bother replying,,,,,,,,too busy to bother,,,,,,

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip GVI.. right on pal. >>>-->

Udine Cael 16:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:59 GMT / It's time you stopped dreaming. US$ weak against all ccys.

Within the next 24 hours Cable will trade over 1.8220.

SanFrancisco TG 16:43 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
houston ken - $Cad opinion is same as $chf today at the moment. Has reached projected low now but no real signs of abatement so patiently waiting. You asked yesterday how I guage things. Are you new to this or experienced? I dont mind sharing a little.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:37 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Victor// back from the bank...right on...good plan. Peak $ weakness being tested again to move to my 1.2450 topout resistace, so it's more than M/E sellers or M/E aftermath... sellers still selling...a scramble to get out of $ B4 w/e likely. I closed @1.2427, pd 7 pips to bank, net 64 piperooz, < I make normally 4 "position" trades. Am in $, I'm do-do if 1.25XX before €/$ shorts! (& could!) Betting on 1.2350-1.2330 w/in 6-8 trading days..who gnowz? (kick my butt). U$A econ is on slow incline. USA does need slow decline of USD next 9 mos-yr to sustain lifestyles...next Fed hike(s) 80% priced in, if Mr. Fedspan's inflator "indicators" are on drugs and he's dumb enough to raise 1-2 b.p....more hikes can hurt US econ, deliver bad US news. If Fed doesn't hike, the 80% price in will collapse USD in disappointment. Summary: don't be surprized of Xmas 1.27 (or even 1.29 or more if Fed relaxes) sustaining 150 pip peaks-dips on the way to raid. Just an "egoist" point of view. (LOL, am I that bad?) Hope 1.2280 won't hold by Fri NY close but am patient. Wonder what ECB & BOJ will pull out of the intervention hat? 6 hr chart looks like lots of exiting long EUR on peaks happening. China loves low $..not unpegged to $ yet. G7 meeting soon can easily be $+ (intervention??).

Livingston nh 16:37 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
200 da ma on AUD?USD at .7301 - ran into some trouble at the avg back in July

Helsinki iw 16:35 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
With the numbers the hedge funds are posting this year, they ought to work on their manipulation skills. They are not big enough to manipulate fx, eventhough their importance as a group has risen steadily the past years and it is estimated that they represent some 30% of the daily turnover nowadays. They are however a very heterogenous group so trading intensity and styles vary strongly.

Sydney Alimin 16:33 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
that 0.7250 aud was taken rather easily....0.73 might be on the card...better wait till the dusts settle first..

SanFrancisco TG 16:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
We're at my projected daily low of 2450 $chf. I have no indication (yet) however of anything resembling bottoming. Waiting patiently.

Gen dk 16:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ATL MA 16:23 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel -- It's always easier to lose than earn it, right!? I'm standing aside right now...But I am really tempted also to sell eurusd because I see this obvious bearish divergence on the 4 hour charts, plain as day. Often this is a really strong signal to sell...it served me very well this summer. Mild divergence on the daily chart too at these levels. 1.2460 should cap the topside at least for a while. I'm going to let this play out a little bit though....let the market find a top first, then sell. I always sell (or buy) certain divergences...just part of my plan. Usually the risk/reward ratio is great, the signal is typically reliable, so regardless of my feeling on waht the market will do, I always trade that signal. Even if I turned bullish on eurusd, I'll still sell this divergence once the market shows me where the top is. I don't see a clear top in place just yet. Good luck and trades everybody...I'm going to get a beer.

gold coast martin 16:22 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Last post for tonite....For all those that are following the advice of THE NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK on the AUD please remember that the time frame for the auds demise is end of of december....g/t

Syd 16:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin thats very true , they watch us like we watch the ants. and decide when to put their foot on us

london 16:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab QDN ?

hk ab 16:13 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Last one b4 bed time.
Gecko, your direction maybe correct now but QDN is v. high currently GL with them.

YHZ CB 16:12 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
houston ken - $/CAD is in a long term decline, many are looking for 125 and lower. Calling a bottom (even a local one) is very risky.

gold coast martin 16:11 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
SYD,,,it always happens..a 200 pip movement in the euro and the HERD follows ...we must remember that the market that we are following at the moment is one that is manipulated by CBS and hedge funds creating the movememt..it is not a true indication of fundamentals...and as i posted earlier today, the same people that created the movement today will create the opposite movememt on monday...at the expense of the HERD...g/t

london 16:11 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin..#



disagree.....dollar is going to be under heavy pressure now into election as us data is weak-ish, oil is high, commodities are well bid......look at the CAD..1.2620 today and falling almost 1 big fig a day.....leading the way to a weaker dollar.

big break out today imvho.

SanFrancisco TG 16:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I still dont like to pick up $ here. Yes it is showing signs of bottoming now so if that indeed transpires, fantastic timing. If not, its grumpy time.

KL MYR 16:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
My 2 cents view : USD will be dumped and stride into a new range from now, esp next week - may get bashed real bad! possibly attributed to G7 .......so my charts say.....besides Rato has said usd must weakened in order us deficit be remedied.....Mcteer too said "soft patch" maybe looonger.....than expected..and the market is not pulling back very deeply as in a rising market...agree guys? So take cue from the market......

Budapest Daniel 16:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Seems like everyone sells eur/usd here, when I do the same I ussually loose some of my hard earned money.. :)

Syd 16:02 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin hope your correct as many are going long Dlr at this junction cheers

prague viktor 16:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 15:45..thx mate.G/T

gold coast martin 15:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GENTLEMEN... ..it is vital for euro to close above 12385 level and stay there for the next 4 sessions otherwise we are back in the summer trading range and Zorro will keep stamp collecting...
..oh,,i forgot something important....the big gun of japan is staying quiet until after the G7 in order to deflect attention ..for the rest of october it will start blazing ...so euro will have a lot of pressure to maintain any upward bias it has gained in the last 4 days....amongst profit taking ,retracement and economic data....good trades to those that picked the upper movement and those that didnt like me can stay floating as monday marks a new chapter ...g/t

Dallas MD 15:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
This is the best posting of the day!
ATL MA 15:23 GMT September 30, 2004
A big ego is something a trader cannot afford. Being a good trader has nothing to do with how often you are right, and it has everything to do with not losing too much when you are wrong. Just the same, there is a difference between being right and trading well. I took loss on the spike this morning, but I still traded well. I did not risk more than 1.5% of my capital, I was hedged, I had exit plans, and I stuck to it. Over time, this keeps me in the money even if it meant a loss this morning...I focus on trading well, and inevitably profits follow. For me, risk management is the most important aspect in this business.

KL MYR 15:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
The fastest way to get cleaned is to prove you are right and the market is wrong...... from personal experience......lol !!

KL KL 15:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ok...bad day today but now short audusd .7240 sl 15 above and gbpusd at 1.81 sl 17 above....going to sleep now and see if the trend defy the rise in 10yr rates. No logic in this rise so no logic in my short either....maybe it works best this way!!

Dallas MD 15:55 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable @ 1.8098, Tgts 1.8088, 1.8078 & 1.8049. Stp 1.8119. Rational Retracement from daily high. FWIW

Mauricio

london 15:53 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone shorting Aud here getting a bit rich ?

ATL MA 15:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
SD -- I was with you on the dollar, but I'm still waiting to see if we get a close above 1.2385 today. I think we probably will. There are good reasons to be bullish on eurusd, not the least of which being the break of major trendlines on the pair and the dollar index....That said, we are still well within the range, plus there are several divergences cautioning that we just might get that dip you are looking for to buy. Early next week, post G7, may have a better idea of things. I'll be doing homework this weekend, reassessing things. I've made a lot of money selling eurusd on rallies over the Summer, but the market may be telling us to begin looking at things a little differently. I'm still just barely a dollar bull, but that could change within the next week.

hk ab 15:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
FHR// This happened quite frequently since eur entered the tight range 1.17-1.23.

GER ad 15:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Madrid real 15:25,
If is really you, don't worry too much IMHO.
You made from a 0:2 with A S Roma a 4:2, so sell again at 1.2430 put a S/L over 1.2470 for all and go play soccer until we see again 1.2320. GL!

EU ZORRO 15:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

prague viktor 15:21...It's possible...

...but I sopouse that many people want to Buy down there.....

...Like some weeks ago when everybody want to Buy below 1,20 and didn't cacht....!!!!

GENEVA FHR 15:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Jay how can you tolerate such an insulting post 1535 GMT

Dallas GEP 15:43 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Got some Aussie shorts working now along with EUR/GBP shorts

SanFrancisco TG 15:43 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Dow could dip a little from -85 again so I'm hesitant to pick up USD yet, so $Cad $Chf could very well start to pick up from here but my humble suggestion is to let them shake out just a little more in these levels.

Budapest Daniel 15:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
hi radrid from madrid

KL MYR 15:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
My 2 cents view : Go with the flow of the market...if usd is on a swing up...just buy on dips and forget the "sell the tops" thinking...less headache and more profits

Madrid real 15:38 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
KL MYR 15:33 GMT
Got stopped our listening to him.Too bad , I was thinking to short dollar initially, but change d mind becaus e of him. Anyways, will never be so gullible. lesson learned
Hi rudapest from Budapest

houston ken 15:38 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
pls can someone comment on $ cad it might be oversold in short term or is it to early to buy in ?

Auschwitz censored 15:35 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 15:22 GMT September 30, 2004

Yes, Swiss got the power and history of financing mass murders, they don't take sides but only finance the side that can pay them.

KL MYR 15:33 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Madrid, were you slugged today holding usd ? or just jabbing Raden eh?

Budapest Daniel 15:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Tha fake one again.... :-/

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 15:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Madrid
Buy more for better averaging technology.

Budapest Daniel 15:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Why do you blame him? No one on this market can be 100% sure what would happen next. How could one predict that a 2-3 billion trade will be done?

Madrid real 15:25 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas
Are you awake? You said good to buy dollar today ? Now can you borrow me some for a Big Mac Tonight

ATL MA 15:23 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
A big ego is something a trader cannot afford. Being a good trader has nothing to do with how often you are right, and it has everything to do with not losing too much when you are wrong. Just the same, there is a difference between being right and trading well. I took loss on the spike this morning, but I still traded well. I did not risk more than 1.5% of my capital, I was hedged, I had exit plans, and I stuck to it. Over time, this keeps me in the money even if it meant a loss this morning...I focus on trading well, and inevitably profits follow. For me, risk management is the most important aspect in this business.

hk ab 15:22 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
This chf strength is not indicating something good at all. Watch major attacks from terrorists.

Spotforex NY 15:22 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
'Touche' Mr. Zorro.....

prague viktor 15:21 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO: but we can see the 1,224-1,228next week ?

EU ZORRO 15:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

Budapest Daniel 15:16....

...it's only my guess....I can feel the market very nervous in this month end.....

Spotforex NY 15:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Zorro...

that would 'add' to my ego.......

can't trade....must gloat LOL!!!!!!!

SD tht 15:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Spotforex, Zorro and especially you Valdez with your Euro view. I've been dollar bull till today when 1.2385 broke. My plan now is buy Euro on dips and sell them when they are expensive!! I think todays move was important, took my profit now after the breakout at 1.2425, will buy again next week. Happy chasing everybody.

EU ZORRO 15:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi Spot......

....lol.....this time only in 1,40.....!!!!

Budapest Daniel 15:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ZORRO. How do you know about that?

hk mom 15:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Finally, aud passes 0.7220!
Congratulation london on your effort.

Spotforex NY 15:14 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
nice to see you Zorro.....

When do they CBs step in??? 1.30...1.35......

EU ZORRO 15:13 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

...EURO will take stops @ 1,2460 today....!!!!!

Budapest Daniel 15:13 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I've just closed my position on eur/gbp @ 1.8105 thats a solid 48 pip gain...

prague viktor 15:11 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez.Thx amigo I didnt trade this one for the last 3-4 days but if the 1,2465-1,2530 hold I will short it and I will target the 1,224 ,BTW 2 things i dont like it this move from the mid.east and chf move g/L

Spotforex NY 15:11 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
but what posts I do pop in suggests more macro views and tibits of info/experience......

It is all about risk management and discipline. Nothing more/nothing less...plus I do always admit when my views are worng (Yes they are at times)....

Happy hunting all!!!!!

Sydney Alimin 15:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
man, here we go again, what all these personal attacks for?calm down guys :(
i am done for today, see you all tomorrow

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Prague John 15:02 GMT September 30, 2004 // you've got a deal, pal. Nuff o' dis. GL GT. Headin' to bank to change a € check for +71 pips, beer money for the next several years. Adios. :^}

Spotforex NY 15:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
egotist????? little old me????

I rarely post in FF

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 14:49 GMT September 30, 2004
Amigo I don't have speculation on this but judging by the time of day (still early & caffine's still in the NY veins) & the 12 hour E/$ chart support line, it's more likely that the lower value you posted 1.2430ish (around 15:30 GMT??) will serve as probable resistance, however 1.2450 I believe will be max peak resistance for this session, then an unwind to 1.2380. Prague, this is only play-talk, don't bank on it. Look at the E/$ 1 yr chart & it looks like we've peaked. Don't short E/$ 'till you see the whites of their eyes..'til you can confirm an unwind...don't be compelled to trade.

Prague John 15:02 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
spotforex,valdez etc. are egoists than traders, get to trading or leave this forum

GENEVA FHR 15:00 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Boca cannot agree more

WASH DC SRQ 15:00 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
and sorry, here's your tip too nyc and Spotforex(GVI poster lol)

Boca Raton 14:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Trying to teach risk management here is a waste of time with all the egos here. Seems people that have been doing this for 5 years know a lot more than people that have been doing it for 20. More power to you all!

WASH DC SRQ 14:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 14:49 GMT September 30, 2004
I am just posting the truth. his view didnt come true and i said it. you are the one who seems frustrated and h.e.l.l. bent on continuing this conversation so who's sore is obvious take a break kid and remember, you shall win too someday! LOL

Livingston nh 14:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
corrrection 21 and 55 da at 110.05-10

Livingston nh 14:56 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 14:23 GMT September 30, 2004
re: yen 109 handle - yesterday I thought the half year selling pressure might show a 109 with a rebound on weak tankan - the 21 day and 55 da ma are holding the USD/JPY at the 109.05-.10 lvl but I think we may still see yen nudge into 109 territory

YHZ CB 14:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi new here - well been gone for a number of years...anyway, thought to post my most recent position & why -
short GPBJPY at 199.25 base on 15 min charts, & 2 PPMA's (shorter, longer) will close when the price recrosses the shorter PPMA. BB's and RSI and hourly trend used for confirmation.

WASH DC SRQ 14:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
thanks valdez...bye and here's your tip ;-) lol

SanFrancisco TG 14:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
YM - Thanks for the heads up.

prague viktor 14:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez: where do u think this move will take the usd to 1,2465or 1,2435?

nyc jk 14:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
srq - you are the one busting someone's chops because their "prediction" didn't come true and I seem sore? LOL. perhaps you may want to try the Psyhic Friends Network instead, lots of predictions there for you, one of them bound to come true.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez acts as doorman ushering SRQ to the sidewalk.

ATL MA 14:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I suppose I'm deranged but I'm shorting Cable with a really tight stop here, not risking very much...standing in front of the train...or peeing into the wind...whichever metaphor you would prefer LOL.

ATL MA 14:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I suppose I'm deranged but I'm shorting Cable with a really tight stop here, not risking very much...standing in front of the train...or peeing into the wind...whichever metaphor you would prefer LOL.

SanFrancisco TG 14:47 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
If you are looking for a $chf buy on exhaustion, I think 1.2450 is a good area if seen.

WASH DC SRQ 14:46 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
see u all for sometime. qindex, hope you have better luck for your next time and sorry for your bad luck this time.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I think if once 1.2450 is taken I wouldn't be surprized to see some post-hype downslide. Congress mystery box: viagra purchased online, delivered, label peeled off and no one claims it?

WASH DC SRQ 14:43 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LOL. Keep it coming. I like a bit of fun while working.

melbourne farmacia 14:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras - good thanks mate... just running the Gbp & Aud pip train for now... GT

Chicago YM 14:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
package suspected

Chicago YM 14:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
people leaving capital building in DC

WASH DC SRQ 14:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 14:29 GMT September 30, 2004
well i asked him, whatever kid! dont need to answer anything to you! and of course that kind of talk is very good i am sure where you live. your perception is your perception...is your perception.. ! lol relax kid you losing it? how much did u lose today? you seem sore ;-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:37 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Wash...it's when times are tense the forum has the propensity to bust chops instead of share viable trading data (it's intended purpose). We're all oversentitized by all the chops bustin, it's stupid, we have eyes to see who's on tgt, who's not. It's one's OWN index finger and final filter that clicks that entry button; if copycat traders get angry, sorry 'bout that. Let's watch that E/$ 1.2450 test & make propriatory decisions.

ATL MA 14:37 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA....that's correct. It's all about risk management.

Pecs Andras 14:33 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi Paul
Hope you are doing well in this strange market.
Good trades.

melbourne farmacia 14:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 14:16 GMT September 30, 2004
His book must be in the red on euro..

Sydney Alimin 14:31 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw if aud goes to 0.7250 today i'll enter short for 40-50 pips target at least...going to 0.7250 is a bit overdone if that happens and i dont expect it to happen but we will never know

GENEVA FHR 14:30 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito you may be 65% right and still lose money.

JHB CDB 14:30 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:25 GMT September 30, 2004
Pecs Andras 14:16 GMT September 30, 2004

(1) I am USD/JPY short from 111.30
(2) new QTR (third QTR) just startted in Asia (@ 14:00 GMT)
(3) EUR/USD will follow soon; take the time and enjoy.

gt

What time frame do you expect EUR/USD to turn south?

GOES B747 14:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
must read: will not close

gt and bye /// I am off posting

nyc jk 14:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
"qindex,Your eur/usd predictions didnt happen."

You asked him ??? guess they use a different form of syntax and punctuation where you are from.

GOES B747 14:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw;

range for OCT/2004 will be (EUR/USD):
1.2000-12500 if today will close above 1.2530


gt

WASH DC SRQ 14:26 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
syd and quito
I am not a predictor lol. and u qindex's marketing guys???? i asked him the query i think. and i know 100% accuracy is not possible by Qindex,was juast asking him. tkx

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:26 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 14:10 GMT September 30, 2004// Respectfully, nothing MUST come in FX..what comes, comes...that's it. Just posting my humble chartist views now. 1000 variables make experts' FX predictions probable but we must not use the word "must". If you're correct 65%, ya done well, & even that's a challenge. Mkt looks thin today..wind changes and coffee dropped on the lap are effecting the chart.

GOES B747 14:25 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 14:16 GMT September 30, 2004

(1) I am USD/JPY short from 111.30
(2) new QTR (third QTR) just startted in Asia (@ 14:00 GMT)
(3) EUR/USD will follow soon; take the time and enjoy.

gt

NYC NYC 14:24 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 14:10 GMT September 30, 2004 - You must be kidding. Judge someone over time and not on one trade. This is a game of percentages and no one scores 100%.

Spotforex NY 14:24 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW

I am working's God's order to buy euro at 1.2450 stop bid....Seems he was caught short as well....

nyc jk 14:23 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
SRQ - where was your prediction??

Sydney Alimin 14:23 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
anyone see 109 handle for usd/yen before g7? someone mentioned this yesterday

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 14:10 GMT September 30, 2004//
Again, moves such as this CAN NOT BE predicted even by God. If Qindex's predictions went south so did a lot of others. I figured we'd short as well. Let's trade rather than bust chops. If anyone has a working crystal ball, say so and I'll buy it.

slv sam 14:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:45 GMT September 30, 2004
sold $/yen here at 110.82 target 110.20 s/l 111.15.GT

62 pips net profits collected. GT

prague viktor 14:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez :the 1,229 must come befor the NFB or it will be too lateG/T

Pecs Andras 14:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:14 GMT September 30, 2004
Where do you see that?
USD/Yen is falling like a stone

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
US data: overall +..but historically pos $ news lowers USD value..think NY opening to lower USD move before-data has buffered post-news effect. I still see possible 1.2450 in the sights today but am satisfied with 1.280-1.2400 NY close to sustain move up for E/$. After peak look for dip in early Oct to 1.2290 then possible retrace to 1.25..reason: 1 year chart techs.

GOES B747 14:14 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
mofsan in action; 1.22xx will follow soon.

gt

GOES B747 14:12 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
it looks like all USD bulls were sitting inside the diverted plane; if they could trade than 1.2220/30 was the current price.

gt

WASH DC SRQ 14:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
qindex,Your eur/usd predictions didnt happen. and 1.2280 was not even close to be cracked.thanks anyway.

GOES B747 14:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Jeanne may made sensors and relays to react later; PMI worth 85-125pips on EUR/USD when the negative data from Europe considerred.

gt

Sydney Alimin 14:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
lately data don't move the market a lot...perhaps monday after G7
next friday is also NFP figure isn;t it?

prague viktor 14:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
bad data usd falling,good data usd falling..

FALLS PB 14:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I think the first one is the most meaningful:
US Chi Pur Mgmt Sep Prices Paid Index 86.4 Vs Aug 86.6
US Chicago Purch Mgmt Adj Sep Index 61.3 Vs Aug 57.3
US Chi Purch Mgmt Sep New Orders Index 68.7 Vs Aug 58.0
US Chi Purch Mgmt Sep Employment Index 53.9 Vs Aug 51.1
US Chi Pur Mgmt Sep Supplier Deliveries 58.6; Aug 55.2

houston st 14:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Chic. PMI topping forecasts, highest reading since May @ 61.3%..

jkt-aye 14:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Data ?

Pecs Andras 14:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
PMI 61.3 in sept
But nothing can help the USD I guess

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Suggestion for FX newcomers...sit on your hands. It's T time..2 mins before data...often espially in thinish volume like now data whipsaws killing stops leaving mkt naked & thrased (and your acct as well).

Toronto YV 13:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
"The talk now is that the Middle Eastern EUR/USD buyer was converting receipts from a large US Treasury sell off. The Treasury market has fallen sharply despite the benign PCE data at 12.30GMT, with the 10 yr yield up to 4.13% from 4.08% at the European open. This yield was below 4% at one stage this week and it is thought that some profits have been booked on the positions amid uncertainty the Treasury upswing can continue in light of a Fed tightening cycle. The move out of Dollars has seen the Euro benefit, with gains also for the Aud, Stg and Yen."

BEIRUT MK 13:52 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
eurusd at 1.2410 usdcad should be at 1.2790

KL MYR 13:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain..I agree with u....guys dump yr USD quick......it's gonna go kaput....

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:30 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
1. i.e. geopolitical "threats", BA airlines etc.. terrorists don't give polite warnings..it just goes BOOM.
2. M/E banks or other biggies making this move as suggested below in post: no surprize..CBs & banks control FX: indiv traders = < 5% of mkt.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:17 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Check the E/$ 1 mo chart & 1 yr chart..this move is "normal" & in line to retrace peak of 7/20.

A British Airways...118 passengers...diverted to Amsterdam ...BA received "a specific threat to the aircraft". Berlin to London...made unscheduled landing Amsterdam's Schiphol airport escorted by 2 F-16s after the pilot requested landing for security reasons, BA said. The plane landed safely, passengers disembarked, authorities are currently checking the jet.

Budapest Daniel 13:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain are you currently longish on cable?

BEIRUT MK 13:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
"BEIRUT MK 12:59 GMT September 29, 2004
long audusd at 0.7175 target 0.7230 stop 0.7140

BEIRUT MK 12:58 GMT September 29, 2004
short usdchf at 1.2574 target 1.2515 stop 1.2625

BEIRUT MK 12:50 GMT September 29, 2004
long eurusd at 1.2330 target 1.2390"

all my three pos got stopped out.....

Budapest Daniel 13:11 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Seems like the chart were right with the yesterday's downward move.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
But the level is 1.76...so maybe not

GOES B747 13:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
PMI will trigger mofsan
gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Lets see if the chart is good Dan for Cable...there should a sharp rise in cable soon

Budapest Daniel 13:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Well to tell you the truth, I didn't spend too much time to analyze them... Could we communicate in a different channel like yahoo messenger or something else if you not prefer using emails?

ATL MA 13:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
sg....it fell. Why? I think probably pre-G7 nerves and thin volume. I'm sure others have theories as well....

-thanks for the dollar index figure folks

Ldn 13:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Business conditions in the New York metro area rose in September for the 13th month in a row, according to the local chapter of the National Association for Purchasing Management. The NAPM-NY business conditions index increased to a reading of 310.4 in September, from 307.1 in August, reaching a level not seen since the boom of the 1990s.

Dallas MD 13:02 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
One more Econ report Sep Chicago PMI @ 10 AM NYT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel //
yes

sg tpe 13:00 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
anybody can update wat happen to the usd? thanks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:00 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I don't know cad is not going up

Budapest Daniel 13:00 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
What kind of charts are you talking about? The ones that are available on your site?

Ldn 12:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
British Airways Flight Escorted Dn By Dutch Fighter Jets

cannes cien 12:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 12:55 GMT September 30, 2004
where's the dollar index right now?

87.67

FALLS PB 12:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 12:55 GMT September 30, 2004
where's the dollar index right now? /// 87.81

ATL MA 12:55 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
where's the dollar index right now?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
No..U
Like the charts?

Budapest Daniel 12:52 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, I or the Romanian guy?

FALLS PB 12:51 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
this has to be a thin market or we'd see some more traction returning the dollar to "the range".

gold coast martin 12:51 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 12:47 GMT September 30, 2004
lol....he will get his picture on the CIAs most wanted database!!!!........just stay patient...as new players enter the market in the form of central banks ranges will broaden and volatility will increase.....g/t

EU ZORRO 12:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi all...!!!!

...and September gone....and the EURO rise....!!!!

...Will try to BUY more EUROS next month....!!!!

Athens 12:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Very nice and technical market moves today and very much in line with my model direction. Too early to take a substantial breakout as granted, however it isn't prudent to try to fade today's moves because none of the major USD pairs is too much overstretched short term. Those who still prefer to go long the Dollar, better pick up $/JPY. Re EUR/$ levels: 1.2435 moderate resistance, 1.2465 strong, 1.2530-40 strong, 1.2385, 1.2360 and 1.2340 support. Good luck all. P.S. If looking for an O/B case, then that is AUD/$ up here around 0.7220).

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Dan U there?

gold coast martin 12:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Same offenders will convert backto $s after G7 ON MONDAY...g/t

Dallas MD 12:47 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
This must have dragged Cable up also.

prague viktor 12:39 GMT September 30, 2004
Middle East accounts are reportedly behind the [EUR/USD] move higher, with two accounts - one UK one US transacting the orders.from the local bank

KL MYR 12:47 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I long EUR ...on a weekly chart. The charts looks chilly for the USD....

GOES B747 12:47 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 12:45 GMT September 30, 2004

their advisor will get fat bonus from the CIA

gt

gold coast martin 12:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW....OIL dollars from yemen and kuwait CBs been converted to euros....g/t

SF MRZ 12:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I guess it wouldn't hurt to short here eur/$. Will cash in sometime, maybe soon?

pd cumino 12:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone has an opinion about HIA US Congress final talks? Frankly I didn't understand too much about the OCT 8 outcome.

HK [email protected] 12:44 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Looks like silver chart is again in ascending parabolic mode.

Pta Lud 12:42 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
KL MYR What direction is your wave? Long USD or EUR? What chart frame?

Pecs Andras 12:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
2-3 yards are reported. If true, that was a breakout in thin market, so beware of a trap!

FALLS PB 12:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw rumor has it Middle Eastern names bought 2-3 bln Euro on the run up.

prague viktor 12:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Middle East accounts are reportedly behind the [EUR/USD] move higher, with two accounts - one UK one US transacting the orders.from the local bank

Dallas MD 12:37 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable @ 1.8061 for ultimate 40 pip TGT, Stp 20 Pips

KL MYR 12:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Looks like a delayed action - this usd fall. But it looks like the drift south has begun.....5th wave is on its way fellas..

Spotforex NY 12:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 12:27

low volumes 'traps' in FX are sometimes lead by the biggest trend markets...

the December markets are said to be 'thin' yet trends emerge year after year......

prague viktor 12:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez :Amigo,is it a CBs move?

Livingston nh 12:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Maybe some folks selling quarter ending fixed income in US after the Q2 disaster - Agency issues held by Fed for foreigners have been under pressure last few weeks and fannie Mae paper has gotten some bad press so some more selling (??) - for the more conspiratorial, China might be flexing a bit on its holdings so that it doesn't have to listen to too much G-7 noise// for the very conspiratorial note that swissy is also performing well against EUR and GBP

LDN. 12:30 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Iran's spare oil capacity will rise to around 200,000 barrels a day within the next few months, a senior Iranian oil official said Thursday.OPEC's largest producer, Saudi Arabia, said it would raise its spare capacity to 1.5 million b/d "by intensifying well-drilling in producing fields."

GOES B747 12:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 12:21 GMT September 30, 2004

reading you makes me to feel the market tries to make the FED push rates much higher.
when markets take ccys. away from G-7 by two crazy trading days; than they actually will push the FED to take rates higher when 1.1900+++ will print; just a feeling.

gt

ATL MA 12:27 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
we were speaking of volume earlier...I'm reading now that volume is thin right because of month-end....that's why I was asking (before this ugly mess!) if anyone knew about volume. If this source is correct, this is a low-volume break....the previous post may be right about being a trap. Shorting with a tight stop as he or she mentioned may not be a bad idea...but it may also be a good idea to wait and make sure there is at least a short term top in place.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:26 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
London, speculatives' action might take earlier especially when most of us fell bored and asleep in a 20pips market. Take care.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:23 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:07 GMT September 30, 2004
Si, Bear trap..viable!! Short E/$ w/20 pip stop handy IMO right prior to US data.. data concensus slightly $+ FWIW so I don't look for much other than GEP's bear trap closing on some legs. If NY close = > 1.2380, looking at 1.2380-1.24+ levels this week. Near end of wk, end of qtr = mkt volitility. I'm short.

ATL MA 12:21 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GOES...I doubt it. Data has pretty much been discounted all week. I may be wrong, but I really think there are some pre-G7 jitters...I think that is largely what this is about. Again, I could be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time. But i think the market is buying the rumor that the G7 meeting will be a dollar negative event. The risk is on the dollar going into it. If I'm right, then we'll know post-G7...if nothing happens at the meeting, then players may start buying back the dollars they sold going into the meeting. It's just a theory.

London 12:19 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe your view alway appreciated thank you
by the way do you see the election causing some pressure next week?

HK [email protected] 12:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
The chances of getting Eur/USD 1.2570 seems higher. But nothing to worry for the politicians. This election is more about terrorism and prices of fuel. Now China will not revaluate the Yuan, but rather take a nice hike with the sinking USD, to maintain their export.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:17 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi, London, The interest rate differential still favour AUD versus USD and Yen. According to my comment of 12:03 GMT. Now, it is not the moment for fundamental of Aussie. Funds and speculatives, ie hot money, will shift to buy NZD and AUD in gaining both rate differential and exchange in October before US election. I think NZDUSD and AUDUSD will move towards 0.71 and 0.8 again. Just buy on dip in one direction. Square the profit at important position level. Don't counter by selling it. Just my 2 cents. Good trades to you.

london 12:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
geneva..

i know that, i just made a bundle on the 72c lvl being broken aud/usd



stockholm mentioned option expiries, hence my comment about timings.

GOES B747 12:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
will markets listen/consider data?

gt

Helsinki iw 12:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Break of 1,2395/05 is a bullish sign, but still needs to trade above 1,2480/90 to be able to say this year`s highs are targetted. But this does look doable now.

Spotforex NY 12:13 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
FHR

Noted......sometimes the 'noise' can be irratating....but comments from my colleagues in GVI have greatly assisted when my models hover at key market points (Option info, rumors, etc).....I trust those names and value them..

but the final decision to enter/exit is all mine.

gd

JHB CDB 12:13 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Thank You ALT

ATL MA 12:11 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
JHB -- Well it is difficult to say at this point...look for 12350-60 to provide a base...topiside, it's hard to know just yet.

Just a note for dollar bulls...eurusd posting bearish divergences on the spike upward...on daily and 4 hour charts...MACD indicator. Could give some relief.

Dallas MD 12:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
For once I was on the right side of a spike. Closed Cable long for 59 pip profit. Going tostay out until after econ reports.

Udine Cael 12:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
All targets met .... yes!!! Further weakness for US$ seen.

Udine Cael 11:21 GMT September 23, 2004
EUR/$ above 1.2345 for 1.2370/80 - supp. 1.2190
GBP/$ above 1.8055 for 1.8110/30 - supp. 1.7865
AUD/$ next 0.7185/90 - supp. 0.7060

JHB CDB 12:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
As a newbie, this just confused.

Do any of you have a calculated new Support and Res on the EUR/USD pair?

Dallas GEP 12:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Could be USD bear trap prior to data...WHO KNOWS??? GBP will have a tendancy to go LONGER than euro because of stronger resistance levels

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I don't "see" an entry point yet..sitting on my hands here...closed my 2 small "shotgun" E/$ longs pleasing Lady Luck (luck..nothing more) ...this is when trading is done on the fly...techs & fundamentals just sit.

London 12:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe would you share your view on aud thanks

Hong Kong Ahe 12:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Remember, US election is coming soon. Uncertainty will lead USD weak. The date 05 October of 199x was a historical risky date for USD. Be careful to manage a larger range risk. IMO. Good trades to all.

ATL MA 12:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
phew...glad i hedged with one-touches...this is nasty...ouch...licking my wounds

GENEVA FHR 11:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
london a barrier option expire when the barrier is touched
so expiration time has nothing to do with this move

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 11:52 GMT September 30, 2004
PLEASE..Let's don't start bashing people now...we've got trading stuff to watch here. No one can predict spikes pal (and did you?). Ease off on the coffee.

GENEVA FHR 11:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex I never follow anybody advice beeing in this market
for 25 years i only follow my own indicator.

london 11:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
options expire at 10 am nyk time, or 3 pm tokyo, so not that.


maybe the penny has collectively just dropped re the dollar.

KL KL 11:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ok short gbpusd 1.8070 sl 15 above....dangerous very short term ...employing hi and run...to recover loss from aussie short

Stockholm AGuy 11:56 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Just a hypothesis, given that today is the last day in the month and quarter, some large do-not-touch option position(s) may just have expired, suddenly removing a cap defended by holders (1.24 on EUR/USD?) and the pressure that built up against it since 22/9 or so.

GENEVA FHR 11:56 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Euro bulls went for barrier at 75 1.24 next barrier 1.2425

london 11:55 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
with all due respect to raden, he isnt very good , prediction wise.

tough times for the dollar bulls/eur bears/aud bears.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:55 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
If geopolitical event causing this...has to be somewhere other than EZ...£/$ chart = €/$ chart so it's not there...post if/when you see news amigos. Maybe Hurricane Forex developing in Bush's britches.

HK [email protected] 11:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Traders are getting nervous!!! Spreading like fire!!!
This may need intervention soon.

Spotforex NY 11:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
FHR

The game is all about discipline....

If you follow someone else's call or suggestion...it is your capital to place an appropriate stop...bottom line it is your capital.....

The market has a way of humbling anyone...

happy hunting

spot

Ldn 11:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez or funds getting frustrated with the slow market.

Toronto YV 11:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

"A burst of activity on NY"s entry has seen US investment house defence of 1.2370 KOs taken out, with a peak set at 1.2375 before profit taking set in. The market is long and with momentum so far pretty poor towards topside tests holding, some profit taking is possible ahead of 1.2400 - with talk bound to surface of yet more KO structures into this round figure. Stop entry order are seen over 1.2375/80 and bids are expected to be raised into the 1.2330-50 zone. Eur/Yen stops from 137.20 to 137.50 now come onto the horizon also and could provide Eur/Usd with some added momentum."

GENEVA FHR 11:52 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I hope nobody followed Master raden on his calls this morning.
He is wrong on all his predictions.

ATL MA 11:52 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
eurusd...lots of barriers just got taken out. no news to my knowledge...waiting to see if the break of 80-90 holds or if it gets sold back down below that level. A close above that level today could spell trouble for bears, no doubt.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I "think" (giving myself credit here LOL) €/$ could punch through today. If we can close at 1.2380 + then looks like to me the pair is closing in for a Nov breakout, right on schedule for that juicy triangle on the 1 year chart. Expect to see a dip before the breakout however late Oct, then BOOM. Haven't heard what caused the move here...likely nothing..just the blocky pattern we've seen for the last 2 months.

KL KL 11:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Hmm no data and this pop ...looks like big boys are sorting us out. Flat now and waiting for entry...who said it was boring....any idea why the pop....somewhere got bombed??

Dallas GEP 11:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Any News out???

romania b 11:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
what happent with eur/usd, pls?

ATL MA 11:47 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
HK...i could see that happening. There have been rumors of possible discussion at G7 about a 20% devaluation discussion taking place...we could be buying the rumor here. If the G7 meets and currencies aren't discussed much, then we could see a sell-off. I think perhaps the market is just scared to hold dollars going into it...may see dollar bulls come back afterwards. I suppose time will tell, but whatever happens, you're right the market will find some justification for what it does:-)

HK [email protected] 11:42 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 11:34 GMT September 30

So if the $$$ will come down before the G-7 meeting will begin.
They will say :"Let the market forces price currencies at the right level". That still gives them a chance to sound intelligent and wise, and without giving a specific target or direction may even help to get some soft landing up to the election.

ATL MA 11:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ccys are difficult to find any real time volume data on because of the size of the market...you can get volume data after the fact when it doesn't much matter, of course...usually after the end of the week. Any real time volume indicator only represents a small corner of the market...but sometimes that small corner is representative of the market at large...sometimes not. Some people are better "plugged in" and may have a better idea of how much ccy is trading hands from one day to the next. But a real time volume indicator would be really nice given this eur break above 50...low volume could suggest a false break...high volume could make it legit.

London 11:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Japan retail investors for Aud who don't hedge like the big boys, helped to push AUD/JPY higher. But, notes BNP Paribas, this could all come to an end if global oil 'shock' continues and demand for Aussie commodities falls. Current account gap will make life difficult for AUD, likely bringing rapid decline towards Y76.

GOES B747 11:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Toronto YV 11:39 GMT September 30, 2004

what is the reason for current USD selloff?

gt

SF MRZ 11:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Any news for the eur/$ spike?

Toronto YV 11:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
b747,data 12.30 then 14 , you are right .

Dallas MD 11:36 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Haven't had a chance to post my long GBP/USD @ 1.7992 Tgt 1.8039. Stp is now @ BE.

GOES B747 11:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
is data out?
I taught schedule was @ 12:30 GMT
please let me know.

tia & gt

ATL MA 11:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
HK...i think you're right on that one....market may be nervous about holding dollars into the G7...it will be interesting to see what happens post-G7

Dallas MD 11:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Rudeness will get you far.

Haifa ac 11:32 GMT September 30, 2004
Dallas MD 11:29 GMT September 30, 2004
There is no such thing as volume for forex due to the huge liquidity.//
LOL Amazing the things you can read here. That is like saying that there is no such thing as car speed tachometers due to the large number of cars on the road.

KL KL 11:33 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Not boring short audusd .7199..sl 15 above

Haifa ac 11:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD 11:29 GMT September 30, 2004
There is no such thing as volume for forex due to the huge liquidity.//
LOL Amazing the things you can read here. That is like saying that there is no such thing as car speed tachometers due to the large number of cars on the road.

Spotforex NY 11:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
re: Volume

I would be lieve that the lack of a centralized reporting facility is the reason for the lack of any daily volume.....

But the sentiment on the forum is a better indication then outright volume.....

Dallas MD 11:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
There is no such thing as volume for forex due to the huge liquidity. One of the main differences between forex and other markets. There are some platforms that offer a type of Level 2 reading, but I think that is irrevalent also.

bucharest d.g. 10:53 GMT September 30, 2004
atl>. there are platforms that have volume, but probably is the volum of their clients, anyway is good if you have instrument that use volume, there are moments when that volume is relevant

Global-View QIndex Special 11:27 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

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HK [email protected] 11:26 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
That market gives (maybe I am wrong) signal : "I want to make the Euro 1.2388 tonight".
Sensing where G-7 wants to go. Better stay out for a time.

GOES B747 11:11 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
short EUR/USD @ 1.2345 /// will close the postion before 12:30 GMT data.

gt

Budapest Daniel 10:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
What a boring day thus far... I'm currently short on eur/gbp, shorted at 0.6854

bucharest d.g. 10:53 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
atl>. there are platforms that have volume, but probably is the volum of their clients, anyway is good if you have instrument that use volume, there are moments when that volume is relevant

ATL MA 10:38 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Anybody have any info on volume for eurusd? Any dealers out there with info on big buy orders on the pair? Just trying to get a better read on how much is being absorbed by the sellers in this 40 to 50 area

bucharest d.g. 10:35 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
till now it's ok, I hope eur will have 2280 and then it's ok :)

Dallas MD 10:27 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Good Day Traders. Hope everyone has a profitable day.
Mauricio

romania cristi 10:24 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
hi dan!how is your trading going?

gold coast martin 10:23 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 10:01 GMT September 30, 2004
Flip...agree with the Flows factor..yet so far flows back into the US have been good enough to maintain their high deficit..and as economic growth improves flows will get better.....g/t

bucharest dan 10:21 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
salve cristi

bandung ompung forex 10:20 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
for mr raden solo please give one good prediction now, so u can rehabilitate your name in this forum

romania cristi 10:13 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
what time it will take place tomorow the g7 meeting?gmt ,please!

GOES B747 10:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Shell is Anglo-Dutch company; tense situation for an average Dutchman includes a bus coming 35seconds after the schedule.

gt

Dublin Flip 10:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Naturally -LOL
Fun thing about this job is coming up with the justifications mate-LOL Ultimately it's the flows not the economy otherwise $jpy would have gone to 250 in the ninties, ozz would be above parity and euro would be at 50c.

Mecca,Saudi A 1-4the Road'en 09:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:04 GMT September 30, 2004
no bear here. I never drink that..
Tallinn viies 08:59
Viies is not telling to commit the sin of drinking beer.Just understand , your 1st post of the day is good.But if you post more than seven per day, you are a murderer of this forum's peace.

Sydney gvm 09:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Flip - both scenarios dollar bearish; right?

Dublin Flip 09:52 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Currencies aren't a defacto popularity contest. Assets are. Euroís rally from 85c wasnít because of Europe was seen as a better bet than the US. Europe was a basket case. Diversification of risk was a factor then and will remain a factor for many years. There has been very little direct investment in the US for the past few years after a decade of unprecedented support apart from the well documented official (see Asian CB) and support of the bond markets.So few foreigners have been buying US stocks recently.
US Bonds are at their most expensive since the start of the year when Bernanke and Greenspan were enchanting the market with spook stories about a deflationary dragon. Since then, they quickly changed teams and while they've raised o/n rates, 10 year Treasuries are still at around 4%. If you are motivated to be buying bonds now it's because you (for whatever reason) think the US is on the same flight path Japan was only 10 years later. Given we havenít even looked like we are anywhere near that stage, US bonds are outrageously expensive given GDP expecations of 4.5. In the unlikely event they are cheap (because a 4% return will prove better than nought as we slow again into 2005) it doesnít bode well for the debt-addled US economy. If it's the former than the bond market will quickly find they have trouble finding suitors (including foreigners who therefore need to be USD buyers). If it's the later, a US economy saddled with mountains of both consumer and government debt will enter a similar deflationary conundrum as Japan. Unlike Japan who had a trade surplus to naturally fund their Government debt explosion the US lives of the kindness (i.e. global savings) of others. A global slowdown means less savings to fund the US debt gap.

slv sam 09:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
sold $/yen here at 110.82 target 110.20 s/l 111.15.GT

ATL MA 09:42 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast.....about 30 mintues ago eurusd closed below the 50 MA on the hourly charts for the first time in a little while...it's a small sign of hope if you're short. There are still sellers at 40 and above. There is talk of good stops on eurjpy below 136.25 and if hit could also bring eurusd down with it. My signals are mixed...its a tricky situation right now. As for position, I've been shorting it, squaring, and reselling it at current levels. I'm short again now. I've got stops above 1.2400. We're still in the broad range. I disagree with some that 1.2000 won't be seen again...but I'm looking at the head and shoulders formation on the Daily. Others are too as there seems to be plenty of sellers up here and above. It's got to go either way soon. I don't see 1.2385 breaking. Stops are gathering heavy in the 1.2280 area, and that could set off a downslide. So, maybe that can give you some confidence in your position. Of course, there are also reasons to buy:-) So, manage your risk. Anyway, you're not alone. Good luck.

Bris RR 09:40 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Re:US current account deficit is a function of strong US economy and lacklustre growth in US trading partners. If we look at Asia ... growth is driven mainly by exports to the US among others... Asian economic policies continue to promote this export orientated growth .... A devaluation of the USD is at odds with their policy prescription... so it only encourages as it has in the past currency intervention ..... Asian economies enjoy significant trade surpluses and are unlikely to agree to USD devaluation not when their economic health is threatened .... So in conclusion talk of significant USD devaluation only provides better levels to buy the USD

tk jf 09:35 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
raden - if u like to post 2,000 times a day - post 1,990 on the help forum or one of the others - then we can say we are all respectful of trading discipline

tk jf 09:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
raden mas u dont get it - despite so many people try to help you - stop posting trash and stick to the facts

Detroit evilspirit 09:31 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:04 GMT September 30, 2004
Looks like your views go right when you are drunk.
Lol

bandung ompung forex 09:17 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast u can put stop at 2380

gold coast miko 09:14 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
any thoughts on the EUR/USD as I am short at 1.2321.
my system shows it is in a bear trend, but Iam starting to think that the bottom has been hit and is waiting to head north on the charts.

bandung ompung forex 09:13 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
so many soros here but im the greatest

Dry Throat 09:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
After all this talk about drinking bears, I can't get rid of this picture in my mind, about choking on a giant furball...

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
There are so many" FX GOD" here, so many "soros" here..except me.
I am a little participant here.
cu..

Gen dk 09:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

bandung ompung forex 09:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
yeah wong solo always drink bajigur

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
no bear here. I never drink that..

Melbourne Qindex 09:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
London ADK 09:01 GMT - Good morning and good trades to you.

Ldn 09:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Stops touted sub-1.7932

van Gecko 09:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
"00:59 GMT September 30, 2004
With Gold pushing to break $425 & the Dollar getting ready to break 88, Dollar bears may be singing "Good Bye to Good Buys" as September is saying Good Bye..
some Good Buy levels in September which may not be seen again in 2004;
Eur/Usd 1.20
Cad/Usd 1.30
Nzd/Usd .6450
Aud/Usd .6950.."


while the above levels may had said good bye to m/t Dollar bears, Gbp/Usd down here at the 1.79's is still a good buy for her Majesty's royal Q4 long marching soldiers under the prevailing market dynamics..
Cheerios..


London ADK 09:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Morning Dr Q. Good to see you are back.

Tallinn viies 08:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:52 - let me put it that way...

if you drink first bear on a hot sunny day it feels really very good > second one feels good > third one feels OK > next one feels pretty ok > fifth feels kind of not so good > 6th beer feeels bad > seventh really bad > eight beer feels like pi.ss > 9th beer feels "I can kill you if you offer me more beer"

doest it look similar to your situation?

Melbourne Qindex 08:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
hkg panda 08:32 GMT - The subscription rate is US262.5 and it will cover till the end of this year.

bandung ompung forex 08:57 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
be calm wong solo i will behind u...ompung forex

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:52 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LYON barbe 08:41 GMT September 30, 2004
"Now the big mouths from Indonesia solo should keep quiet"
yes you are right..
I always say thank with what ever you say about my view (not about me)
never hesitate to write here with what I know little about the chart behavior.I always write about my opinion here with full confidence always.if no with full confidence..for what I write here. always strike in view..wrong or not is number second for me. you can monitor always my numbers/comment and please match with your chart.after this ..you can get conclusion about my view is usefull for you or not (often right/wrong..often excat/not) before you call me "big mouth".
btw..I must say sorry about you.
thanks.

st. pete islander 08:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 08:44 GMT September 30, 2004

It sure doesn't sound good, ac.

Melbourne Qindex 08:48 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LYON barbe 08:41 GMT - Thank you for your kind words. I am trying to do a better job on my page. The movements of USD/JPY and GBP/USD have been catched right on targets so far. The deal of the special offer from Global-View is very good don't miss it. I have changed the format a little bit in my page and it should be good for day traders and position traders.

Haifa ac 08:44 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LYON barbe 08:41 GMT //..."indonesian fishmarket ."

Is this good or bad?!

ATL MA 08:44 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
just passing this along....decent size eurusd 1.2300 strike at 11 (EST) New York cut. Talk of fresh barriers at 1.2350 again, up to 70 and 80. Sellers still at 40..above 55 mixed light stops and more sellers. Buyers at 20, down to 10, stops just under 1.2280.

LYON barbe 08:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:22 GMT
Welcome back sir!
Without you this forum was like an indonesian fishmarket .
We look for your pearls of wisdom and excellent posts.
Now the big mouths from Indonesia solo should keep quiet.
Good wishes and good trades to all!Lets keep this forum gr8 as b4!

LDN. 08:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD TECHS: Sell Signals Seen on Daily Charts IFR

Ldn 08:33 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Buying yen might not seem the wisest course of action these days, when the currency is being pressured by a slowing Japanese economy, a sluggish stock market and record oil prices. But that's what some traders recommend, saying the yen could strengthen by the end of the year, pushing the dollar down to Y105 or even Y100. It's true the dollar this week crept above Y111.00 for the first time in a month, and is trading Thursday around Y110.90 due to the emergence of a host of yen-negative factors. Yen bulls think, however, that the Japanese currency is being sold for faulty reasons "I think all such ideas are just off the mark"
Mitsui Banking Corporation.

hkg panda 08:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
qindex// you got mail.

bandung ompung forex 08:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
today i agree w u raden mas solo

Melbourne Qindex 08:22 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
hkg panda 08:20 GMT - Send your e-mail to both qindex @ hotmail.com and yahoo.com

hkg panda 08:20 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q//Thanks a lot. It is good to hear that you got back on track after your long vacation.

Moskow 08:20 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   

Reliable forex historical data
for trading system verification and precise technical analysis
Intraday data are presented since 1997

gold coast martin 08:19 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
With world growth and demand waning,the commodity boom that has provided a pillar of support for the commodity currencies in the past, is losing its long standing effect on these currencies...Just like the pre-occupation of the market with oil in the last month and its gradual shift away from it..So where does the market look to for its inspiration?...simple...back to economic fundamentals...it becomes a simple equation of which zone has better fundamentals...eurozone or the US?...no arguments there...
While factors like terrorism,high oil prices,G7 meetings will always provide upside and downside for currencies in the short term,the main focus will always be on economic fundamentals.........US economics are not perfect at the moment but we what other choices do we have....So if you are looking for a currency of choice in the short ,medium or long term the yankee dollar is streets ahead of anything else in the currency market....it is a matter of risk and reward.....g/t

Melbourne Qindex 08:16 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
hkg panda 08:08 GMT - Thank you for your interest in our analysis. I would assume Jay will set it up for you to see my page as soon as he waits up in a few hours. I cann't do it myself . Send me an e-mail if you have any particular interest. My weekly cycle analyses are doing pretty good so far this week.

HK [email protected] 08:09 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I really do not bother too much about I.M.F. meetings. simply if the G-7 will not read the message on the wall; this market with 2000B$ circulation a day will eat them alive.
So better if they shoot the arrow and mark the circle around it, before the market will decide to move on it's on.

hkg panda 08:08 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
qindex// I am very interested to eroll your services. Already send email hours ago to jay but no response so far. As you know, we are having a public holiday in hkg tomorrow. Just like to enjoy the special discount offered and confirm before this weekend. See if you can help on this?

Sydney gvm 08:02 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
RF - succinct analysis - thanks for that. FWIW my system has orders currently looking to sell dollar agin euro and swiss (both approx 50-70 pips away) and buy gold around 117. Unless there are spikes pre G7 doesnt look like I will be filled on any of these - hope G7 anncmts dont cause big gaps

HK [email protected] 07:58 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
CORRECTION...Possibility of testing 414.XX increased

[email protected] HK 07:56 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Short term view for GOLD.

Support at 411 held well. Possibility of testing 411.XX increased.

So for those who hope for a fast 425 target. Watch your AZZEs at 420 (hidden short term pivot)for a pull back to around 417.
In general for those who do not buy for quickies.... I prefer to wait for the outcome of the IMF meeting. Seems like the Americans want the IMF to get the roasted pig out of the fire from them..thus as an IMF decision; dollar will begin it's way to the right direction around $INDX=74 target.
DJ UK PRESS: Pressure Grows On G7 To Agree Dlr Devaluation

09/26/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



"""LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20% to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday's Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.'s The Business newspaper reported.

Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington have over the past few days tried to influence the White House and U.S. Treasury to put pressure on the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final statement, the newspaper said.

Recent data have shown the U.S. current account and trade deficits running at record levels, and economists have said a dollar depreciation is needed to rein these in."""

A down break of 411 and I change again my short term view.

wellington am 07:54 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 07:37 GMT September 30, 2004
Flip - don't mention that mongrel thing. I've lost more money shorting the ozzy index of late than I care to remember.

If the SPI hits 3700, i'm turning around and joining the bulls - SPI 4000 here we come.

Dublin Flip 07:37 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
I see the Aussie Stock market made another all time high yesterday (up 11% YTD), CRB is at all time highs and Gold is at 5mth highs. More reasons to sell Ozz -LOL

gold coast miko 07:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Raden, can you explain how you came up with the high and lows

Sydney Ge11Ja 07:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 06:55 GMT September 30, 2004

yep like house market always goes soft before an election and then rebounds

I was surprised at how bearish everyone has got over last 24 hours regarding AUD/USD

Syd 06:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th I dont think its got anything todo with the Election Domestice Demand, people in Australia vot e because they have to not because they want to

Ltn th 06:55 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Syd// The current level of domestic demand softness is usual in the lead up to an election such as we have weekend after this in Australia.

. 06:46 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
.

Syd 05:41 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
More evidence emerged Thursday that the pace of domestic demand in Australia has slowed, suggesting the Reserve Bank will delay plans to raise interest rates after the Oct. 9 federal election. With moderation in spending continuing, trade data Wednesday showing a 5% drop in imports, and signs that employment growth has tapered off, the odds are now increasing that the RBA won't be in a rush to raise rates after the election,monthly housing credit growth slowed, giving the RBA more room to keep interest rates on hold in coming months.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 05:26 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
please focuse today eur/usd about target bottom 1.2176 (moderate bottom) and 1.2105 (extreme bottom) also gbp/usd 1.7895(moderate bottom) and 1.7815 (extreme bottom). gold 406.40 (moderate bottom) and 404.72 (extreme bottom)..
it will be posted again here if welll done..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 05:20 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
hello everybody !!
I am in bull usd today, also gold in sell.
eur/usd, eur/jpy,gbp/usd, gold have given nice sell signal.
full confidence !!..

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 05:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
yeah i ve gone long cable 83

London A.M 04:36 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
HI, I Am new here, can some one tell me is there eny difirens betwine real trading and demo trading, i registerd demo treding and i am not shure it is same, maydu in real one tehe mor charg or more persentig charging for baying and seling

Syd 04:31 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
MELBOURNE (AP)--The head of the Australian International School in Jakarta has written to Prime Minister John Howard, urging him to boost security around the building fearing it is being targeted by terrorists, she said Thursday.Penny Robertson said the 550 students and 44 Australian teachers at the school in the Indonesian capital were at risk since and noted that the school had been singled out for attacks in the past. Protesters threw petrol bombs at the school in October 1999 amid anti-Australian sentiment prompted by Canberra's intervention in East Timor. It also received telephone threats in August 2000. The school was shut in November 2002 because of security concerns in the wake of the nightclub bombings on the Indonesian island of Bali, in which 202 people including 88 Australians were killed. And it was named as an alternative target by a suspect in the August 2003 bombing of the JW Marriott Hotel bombing in Jakarta that killed 12 people

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:27 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Might Cad day today

LA fxnew 04:05 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
does anybody buy cable ???

Sydney EM 03:00 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
ABN AMRO chief economist Kieren Davies said the retail sales data and credit growth for housing suggest the Reserve Bank and financial markets will be revising down their forecasts for third quarter gross domestic product growth.
"I think it also increases the odds the RBA will be more neutral sounding in its next (monetary policy) statement," said Davies. ABN AMRO is forecasting a rate cut by the end of 2004. Davies said the monthly credit growth for housing in August was the slowest since January 2003.

Chicago Goofy 02:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the guys replying to me. Just think silly to take one line thank you note without any other comments.

I barely think the USD/JPY will go to north again. Like Gep said, 110.9 area should be the turning point. But other major pairs are not like on a north train too. Again, it will be a which-one-will-drop-fast game decided by the yen cross pairs.

Really need to reckon the effect of G7 meetings. The big loser might be European..

Gud trade to all, Thank you!!

Melbourne Qindex 02:37 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 02:28 GMT - I would prefer you to see my page.

EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

WASH DC SRQ 02:28 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Qindex,do you see eur/usd going down today majorly or up? would 1.2240 be a top most probably?
thanks

Sydney EM 02:26 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Australian retail sales growth disappointed in August for the third straight month as domestic demand cools, suggesting the Reserve Bank may decide not to hike interest rates after the Oct. 9 federal election. Meanwhile, credit growth to the private sector rose more than expected in August, but monthly housing credit growth slowed, giving the Reserve Bank more room to keep interest rates on hold in coming months.


Melbourne Qindex 02:21 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 02:17 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 02:10 GMT - Good morning and good trades.

houston ken 02:11 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
does anybody trade nok and $ ?

Calabash TarHeel 02:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
Dr. Q. I'm a bit tardy, but a hearty welcome back.
Happy Trades

Melbourne Qindex 02:10 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

wisconsin tim 02:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 9/30/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
9/29/2004 AUDUSD 0.7209 0.7141 0.7215 0.7103
9/29/2004 EURGBP 0.6875 0.6831 0.6879 0.6777
9/29/2004 EURUSD 1.2381 1.2298 1.2388 1.2260
9/29/2004 EURYEN 137.80 136.69 137.86 135.90
9/29/2004 GBPUSD 1.8066 1.7927 1.8179 1.7907
9/29/2004 GBPYEN 201.10 199.20 202.84 198.40
9/29/2004 NDZUSD 0.6736 0.6674 0.6736 0.6650
9/29/2004 USDCAD 1.2720 1.2615 1.2752 1.2611
9/29/2004 USDCHF 1.2631 1.2553 1.2672 1.2526
9/29/2004 USDYEN 111.59 110.87 111.75 110.43

LA fxnew 02:01 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
for experts out there:
what is your view for cable tonight?

thanks

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:55 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
okie dokie. waiting then....

;-)

Melbourne Qindex 01:53 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:49 GMT - The following days are very important and detailed analyses take a long time to run.

Melbourne Qindex 01:50 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:49 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Qindex,
do you see the 1.2280 congested area cracked today? don't yet see your eurusd analysis for today on eurusd.

TIA:-)

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:44 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana 01:31 GMT September 30, 2004
Should be good
Try this link-available on amazon. On Fxstreet,com Tiju, try the questionnaire section where some expert comes and answers live questions posted to him and check their archives-some interesting info. there.

play safe pal-dont touch a real trade unless you have done your homework. good luck

London 01:44 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Aud has again failed topside attempt at 0.7200, selling pressure resumed, stops triggers took the pair lower. Sales in AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD were apparent, the main pair continued to march to the bottom of the daily ranges to 0.7129 low in NYK. However made a modest recovery to current 0.7165. Emphasis remains on the downside and note that several attempts made in past sessions above .7200 have failed, strong cap by option barrier. Sales into strength will likely to dominate the AUD pair, in tandem with other commodity currencies. Retail sales data will be highlight later today, mkt consensus calling for a 1% rebound after a surprise -1% fall in Jul.
censored.

Syd 01:34 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Australian Aug Retail Sales +0.2% Vs +1.0% Consensus
Australian Job Vacancies -11% Jun-Aug Vs Mar-May

Tijuana 01:31 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Sydney and Texas
Is there really a dummie book for forex? I had already looked for one and couldn't find. I need it for sure. I have been keeping up daily on fxstreet. There is a lot of info that hasn't stuck yet. I can't take it easy because demo accounts only last 30 days. I'm on my second now. Have any suggestions?

Pecs Andras 01:29 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
short for currencies

Rye, NY et 01:28 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 01:24 GMT September 30, 2004
Abbreviation for the word "currencies."

LA fxnew 01:24 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
what is ccys?

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:24 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana 01:15 GMT September 30, 2004
tiju, i think the help forum may have some' to provide for you, also http://www.fxstreet.com and if possible go to your local bookstore and get a book called "forex for dummies".

take it easy mate

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:19 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana 01:15 GMT September 30, 2004

yes and if you read this forum regularly you will see, and most traders are exactly the same, they generally favour ccys going down as they tend to go down hard and fast. AUD and GBP are famous for that

LA fxnew 01:17 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
texas:

do you know qindex's range for gbp/usd?

Thanks

Tijuana 01:15 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Sydney

Thanks for your comments. Are you saying that a bearish market on average can be more lucrative than bullish?

SanFrancisco TG 01:14 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Banking profits on the short (sell) EurYen at 81.

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana 00:59 GMT September 30, 2004

that previous paste was obvioulsy for you

another thing to note is that markets tend to go down faster than they go up, that is because most people are more comfortable buying things than selling them ie you dont go out and sell a car or a house you naturally buy them, thus down markets are faster as people tend to panic sell.. it is not a natural reaction for them

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:07 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Qindex,
yes your range 1.2339-1.2240. let's hope and see what happens.

thanks mate

SanFrancisco TG 01:06 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Love it, short EurYen in the money from the figure, you guys were right.

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
bearish means you think the ccy is going down and bullish means you think it goes up

bearish comes from the times of the Canadian bear hunters in the north of Canada who would one week a year come to town and sell off their skins of the bears they had caught, which obviously made the price offered hence the term bear market.

dont know the story behind "bull" market

Melbourne Qindex 01:03 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 00:43 GMT - EUR/USD : The daily cycle charts are till valid in Asian session. I havn't examined the current daily cycle but I would not surprise that it will give a similar view. I am currently running USD/JPY and EUR/USD will be followed.

Tijuana 00:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Can somebody explain what bearish and bullish is?
Thankyou

van Gecko 00:59 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
With Gold pushing to break $425 & the Dollar getting ready to break 88, Dollar bears may be singing "Good Bye to Good Buys" as September is saying Good Bye..
some Good Buys levels in September which may not be seen again in 2004;
Eur/Usd 1.20
Cad/Usd 1.30
Nzd/Usd .6450
Aud/Usd .6950..

lotsa Cheerios for all in October..



Brisbane L 00:56 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin hi there martin nice to see you add(at least ) I am with you there, not a aud bear , as I enjoy a strong currency but we have to be realistic . I dont think the R/R is there for much more topside just yet.

SanFrancisco TG 00:55 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
houston ken 22:27 - Are you experienced or new please? Thank you.

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:51 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
to clarify the fix for you all that are not familiar, the Japanese used to have a very rigid system whereby corporates could only deal with their house bank at the fix rate which means a rate was "fixed" at 9:55 am every day by a Japanese bank and the corporates would get set at that rate + a margin ie if you were an importer you would buy your usd at the fix
+ 3 points (if you were a good customer)

the banks would take turns in setting the fix and the period between 9:00 am and 9:55 would see the banks buying and selling to cover their fixing interest. in the old days it used to be standard trade to buy or sell the break of that range

these days this is not as big a factor as customers tend to deal more when they want but generally speaking there is still a lot of business in this fix on the days such as last day of 1/2 year and last day of financial year

knowing if there is any big business at the fix in tokyo can somtimes be very very helpful

hope that helps some




gold coast martin 00:51 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 23:48 GMT September 29, 2004

Unlike previous times regarding options trading whereby they only took half the advice ,this time they have taken all the advice they pay for to the full...The NAB is finally on the right forex path...until 31st of december...at least.....g/t

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:45 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 00:32 GMT September 30, 2004

thanks will do that when I have a minute, flat out on all sorts of stuff at mom

cheers

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:43 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
LA 7 00:27 GMT September 30, 2004

yes but always more pronounced last day of 1/2 year and even more so last day of financial year. In the old days you would get some real wild days then 2-3 big figure moves etc but those fun days are long gone now

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 00:43 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:38 GMT September 30, 2004
what happened to your view yesterday of eur/usd around 2250? haven't seen 1.2280 break? your comments on eur/usd direction and strength of movement please for today?

thanks

KL KL 00:39 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Well all seems topping now...yen cross, audusd looks like testing top of 72 before back down to 70 which is the neutral figure to many. eur yen been good to me looks like going to test 137.5 again...that is where I will SAR. Apart from that eurusd looks like heading higher into hurricane at 1.2360 and gbpusd with some weak UK data can still climb higher to 1.8080 in the hope US data is worst!! It is hit and run imho

Melbourne Qindex 00:38 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

SanFrancisco TG 00:32 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 00:04 GMT September 30 -

That is something I have been expecting as well from this range. I appreciate your candor. Please contact Jay for my email, I currently guide spot for a fund and I would like to speak with you. I hope you are right because if not we are both wrong this time :)

Livingston nh 00:28 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja - thanx - my concern is just for the half year today - I hadn't looked at the import considerations

LA 7 00:27 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 00:18 GMT September 30, 2004 -- Is that true for the last day oif every month?

Brisbane L 00:22 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Prague JV

did you read the article below posted on Political forum, sorry for the size ..
Syd 07:36 GMT September 29, 2004
Emailed from a trader friend in NY interesting read for Aud traders.

Held in the shadow of the U.S. presidential election in November, the Iraq war and an oil shock, Australia's own Oct. 9 poll is struggling to register on the international investment radar.
But the outcome is nevertheless significant and will shape much of what is to come for one of Asia's largest economies. It will also set the near-term course for the world's sixth most traded currency. At a time when Australia's current account deficit is bulging at 5.7% of economic output, the continued affection of skittish foreign investors remains paramount.
Yet both major political parties are peddling policies that could test the faith of international fund managers, economists say.
This week's opinion polls show the election holds the real prospect of a change in government, the first since 1996, and boosting overseas scrutiny on opposition Labor Party leader Mark Latham. Advocating budgetary restraint and central bank policy freedom, center-left Labor gets big ticks for its approach to economic policy. But grave doubts surround Labor's industrial relations policies, which some fear could reinvigorate union power and wage costs. "Mark Latham used to advocate very pro-market policies. The obvious risk is that his party could compel him to backtrack on some labor market reforms," said David Hale of the Chicago-based Hale Advisers economic consultancy group. In government, Labor plans to beef up the power of the Australian Industrial Relations Commission, the independent umpire in wage talks. It will also fund equal pay cases for women, abolish workplace agreements and give the nation's 2.2 million casual workers the right to convert to permanent positions.
Doubts also swirl around the union movement's leadership, said Hale. The Australian Council of Trade Unions, the country's peak union body, was viewed as a virtual second arm of government under previous Labor governments.
"The leadership of the unions is also much less sophisticated than it was during the Hawke-Keating (1983-96) era. It's an issue that we have to watch," Hale said.
Conservative Prime Minister John Howard made decentralization of wage setting a top priority after the Liberal-National coalition won power from Paul Keating's Labor team in 1996, winning plaudits from financial markets.
Fresh from a tour of fund managers in the U.S., JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters also identified Labor's workplace policies as an area of doubt.
"What was flagged as a big potential problem was Labor's industrial policy. Offshore investors, are saying that clearly it is negative for corporate profits and therefore the equity markets," Walters said "That was probably the only area raised as a red flag." Labor's Policies Toward Iraq Involvement Could Anger Hale, a former global head of research at investment bank Zurich, also warned there could be repercussions in investment terms if Labor scales back or withdraws Australia's military involvement in Iraq. Latham has said Australia's contribution to allied forces in Iraq will be reviewed after the election, raising the prospect some or all troops being home by Christmas. Under Howard, Australia has been an enthusiastic member of the U.S.-led coalition of the willing. Bush has called Howard a "man of steel" for his commitment to U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
"There could be some image problems for Australia with a Latham victory," Hale said. "If he pulls out of Iraq immediately, he will generate headlines here which could portray Australia as embracing anti-Americanism," he said, speaking from Chicago. "As with the French two years ago, this could produce ill will toward the country and have an adverse impact on business," Hale said. French companies experienced a 20% sales decline in the U.S. through 2003 after France criticized U.S. President George W. Bush for his policies toward Iraq, Hale noted. Prime Minister John Howard carries fewer concerns for international investors. He is well known and has presided over strong economic growth. But the closeness of the election has forced him to accelerate spending. Fiscal largesse gathered momentum last Sunday when Howard pledged a further A$6 billion in government programs, hacking into budget surpluses over the next four years. The spending took the total of government campaign pledges to A$13 billion in the space of four weeks. It also added to A$5 billion is pre-election goodies handed out midyear. Naomi Fink, senior currency strategist at BNP in Tokyo, said the risk is that interest rates will rise.
"There is room to spend, Australia is in a very good fiscal position. But on the other hand the Reserve Bank has said inflation is not dead, so it will be watching very closely," she said. Australia's inflation rate was 2.5% in the year to June 30. The central bank hasn't hiked since last December, with the official cash rate at 5.25%. Fink said a rise in interest rates will support the Australian dollar in the near-term, but also fuel concerns about pain for the indebted household sector. The fragile environment for housing, which has seen prices double and debt surge in the last six years, is clearly a policy focus for the Reserve Bank, she said. "Is it going to invite inflation? I think it is very probable that even a small amount of spending can be inflationary," Fink said. "Even if it is not irresponsible, we may see a necessity for further monetary policy tightening." The return of Howard's coalition of city and rural-based lawmakers is likely to give the Australian dollar a short-term boost, Fink said. In Asia trading on Wednesday, it was hovering around US$0.7170, well off the seven year high US$0.8008 struck in February this year.
While the nation's AAA rating isn't under threat, Standard & Poor's this week said the amount to be spent by the Howard government leaves the budget surplus vulnerable.
"It is a bit of risk that if the economy does take a turn for the worse, finances are going to take a turn for the worse as well," said S&P head sovereign analyst for Australia, Brendan Flynn. "They aren't really giving themselves much of a buffer," Flynn told Dow Jones Newswires. Independent thinktank Access Economics on Wednesday added to the wave of criticism aimed at the government for a lack of fiscal restraint during the election campaign. The revenue surge now flowing to the government comes from strong growth and "can't last forever...interest rates will rise, and wage gains will lift, lowering growth in general and profits in particular," Access said in a report.

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 00:14 GMT September 30, 2004

my comment was more about this mornings activity, importers tend to buy their usd on last day at the fix so you get silly moves up until 10:00 am tokyo time today

in the case you mentioned it is still issue as trade will be usd based that is importers from china will still have to buy usd at the fix...... to be hoenst the main players on last day fix tended to be oil importers

SanFrancisco TG 00:18 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
EurYen 136.90 is key. If it breaks it and holds it with conviction you short it on a pull up to the figure +/- and hold it for a few. Already riding very risky shorts. Took the profit on the $yen long.

Livingston nh 00:14 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11-- Japanese Ind Prod up only 0.3% (August) - do you think the increased trade w/ China (USD based) will skew the importer/exporter balance you mentioned?

Prague JV 00:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 23:48 GMT September 29, 2004
.........." NAB have turned quite bearish Aud say AUD likely to struggle , headwind becoming evident: interest rate differentials expected to converge, leading indicators of global growth weakening, robust industrial metal prices susceptible to downside push. "............. is the first step for the AUD on the way down." .............


I could not disargue with it any more . IMO , NAB got it wrong , or they are allready on wrong side and trying get some free bees crap out .

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:04 GMT September 30, 2004 Reply   
For those like me that want to short eur/yen up here watch out for fun n games over next hour due to last day of the month/quarter/halfyear fixing. These tend to be more importer focused than exporter and might see usd demand, but should settle after that and see a downward push. I expect back towards 136.50 and usd/yen back down to 110.50-70

 




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