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Forex Forum Archive for 01/03/2005

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Syd 21:51 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   

IMM speculators rebuild net euro longs - CFTC

dc fxq 21:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Large increase in long EUR and CHF exposure, but Euro longs are still well below recent extreme levels that are regarded as one high watermark for oversold dlr exposure. Stg long positions have fallen sharply leaving Aussie as the currency with the most extreme longs as of last Tuesday.

Sydney 21:39 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD: Looking Vulnerable After Slide In Gold/CRB IFR

Memphis Charles 21:10 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Use standard order of operations on those formulas. I did not type the parentheses.

Memphis Charles 21:03 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
What do you have to do to post a live link?

Memphis Charles 21:02 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
http://www.fxstreet.com/conversor/fppc/fppc.asp

Pivot point calculator, fwiw.

Memphis Charles 21:00 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
R1 = 2*pivot-low

S1 = 2*pivot-high

Just came back from a liquid lunch with an old friend. Hope I don't have these reversed.

Syd 20:48 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   

Gold, silver hit multimonth lows on liquidation

Syd 20:38 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
February GOLD drops $8.70 as funds liquidate longs

praga jan 20:13 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
charles,the formula to calculate support and resistance 1 is 2*pivot minus low and high?thank you1

Dallas GEP 20:11 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Longed nzd/usd at market

San Diego bobl 20:09 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
I also run this on all major commodities...has worked well for me, and gives me a look different from the standard formula.

Memphis Charles 20:08 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Thanks, but don't post any proprietary trading points. I was merely curious. Certainly understand if formulas are not for public consumption. GL/GT

San Diego bobl 20:05 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Memphis Charles...
That looks like the standard formula which calculates and updates daily on realtick and many other platforms. The system I use that has several other criteria implemented into trade decisions, i.e. close, open etc. plus time values. It is co-copyrighted with another party and by agreement is not published or sold. However, I would be happy to give you what I consider the current primary pivot area in any major cross traded.

dc fxq 20:02 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   

Memphis Charles 19:56 GMT

correct, that is the basic formula which I have tweaked to account for a number of variable factors but the end results are very worthwhile to me. Essentially they add two interim levels plus the prj high and lows which give me further levels to work from when range variations or volatility leave the traditional values less useful,

Syd 20:01 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
If the Fed do start doing what this chap says you may see a sharp rise in the USD in the early part of this year.

(Dow) Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said on Monday that the central bank must stand ready to keep inflation pressures from building in the economy.
"We can't wait to until we see the whites of their eyes," and the Fed must stand ready to raise rates to head off rising inflation pressures, Lacker said after a speech in North Carolina about the economic outlook. But even as he said the Fed should be "vigilant," he added that his comment was meant generally, and wasn't necessarily aimed at current economic circumstances. Lacker said "there is a pace at which market participants expect us to raise." He explained, "it could turn out to be more rapid than that, or less rapid than that." In December, Lacker said, "we may still need to move the fed-funds rate fairly often," even as he made that course of action contingent on incoming economic data. He echoed that sentiment in his post-speech remarks Monday when he said "we may need to raise and lower interest rates more quickly than you might otherwise think."

Memphis Charles 19:56 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
I assume they vary from this very common formula:

Pivot = ( High + Close + Low ) / 3

Resistance1 = 2 * Pivot - Low normal trading range
Support1 = 2 * Pivot - High for the next period

Resistance2 = Pivot + (Resistance1 - Support1) extreme trading range
Support2 = Pivot - (Resistance1 - Support1)

Resistance3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Support3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

Memphis Charles 19:54 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Would you guys be willing to post your formulae?

San Diego bobl 19:52 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
dc fxq...
I also have a program that "manipulates" pivot areas and time sequences. I prefer longer term strategies overall, however, like to also keep finger on pulse day to day, thus I find the original pivot formulas helpful entry/exit guides. I agree that you can work further out in time with alghorhythms founded in the original formula.

Syd 19:50 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Silver price ends below $6.50/oz after gold falls
Mon Jan 3, 2005 NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Silver prices settled at three-month lows on Monday, as lower gold values and a firmer U.S. dollar triggered speculative liquidation, dealers said.

dc fxq 19:44 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 19:34 GMT

as do I, having modified the base formiula bit to generate 4 levels rather than two and also project time period (daily, 3 hr interv al) exoected high and low. Works very well for me.

Memphis Charles 19:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
WSJ article by Arthur Laffer:

(I couldn't get link to post)

Destination U.S.A.

By ARTHUR B. LAFFER
January 3, 2005; Page A8

Just because the United States has its largest trade deficit ever doesn't mean that we're living beyond our means. Far from it. In fact, the characterization of the U.S. as a land of chronic overspenders, hellbent on selling themselves into global servitude doesn't make sense at all. And once the over-consumption model is put into question every policy remedy based on the presumption of squander looks pretty weak.

In an era of floating exchange rates the trade deficit (or more appropriately, the current account deficit) is one and the same as the capital surplus. The only way the U.S. can have a trade deficit amounting to 5.6% of GDP is if foreigners invest that amount of their capital in the U.S. It's a matter of simple accounting. But once you realize that the trade deficit is, in fact, the capital surplus you would clearly rather have capital lined up on our borders trying to get into our country than trying to get out. Growth countries, like growth companies, borrow money, and the U.S. is the only growth country of all the developed countries. As a result, we're a capital magnet.

Take a look around. Germany hasn't had a growth spurt since the 1960s when Ludwig Erhard was Bundeskanzler. France still has a mandated maximum workweek of 35 hours, a maximum income tax rate of 58%, a 1.8% annual wealth tax and government spending as a share of GDP greater than 50%. Finland, for goodness sakes, fines speeders a percentage of the speeder's income. Sweden, Denmark and Germany also fine speeders a percentage of their income, only with caps. Japan has had a stock market down by over 70% from its high in 1989 and both company and government unfunded liabilities in Japan are out of sight. Canada's economic policies are kooky and investments in Latin America, the Middle East, Russia, Southeast Asia and Africa are about as safe as running drunk blindfolded across the "I-5" freeway at rush hour.

So what's not to like about the U.S.? Whether you're an American or a foreigner the U.S. is the choice destination for capital. That's why we have such a large trade deficit.

The only way foreigners can guarantee a dollar cash flow to invest in the U.S. is if they sell more goods to the U.S. and buy less goods from the U.S. Our trade deficit is not a sign of a structural flaw in the fabric of the U.S. economy but is instead a stark reminder of our privileged status as the most pro-growth, free market, rule of law economy the world has ever known. Why on earth any American would want to change our policies to emulate foreign policies is beyond me.

China has realized the pre-eminence of the U.S. model and since 1979 has reduced the percentage of GDP flowing through its government from about 82% to today's level of about 30%. That is a supply-side tax cut par excellence. China also realizes that the U.S. has the best monetary policy ever. By fixing the value of its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar, it has literally imported Alan Greenspan to China. Talk about outsourcing!

To guarantee the dollar value of the yuan requires that China hold over $500 billion of liquid dollar assets. China doesn't hold those dollars as a favor to us: it holds those dollars to benefit itself. One needs only glance at the financial disaster that ensued when former Argentine President Fernando De la Rúa broke the peso currency bond to the U.S. dollar to understand why China won't break its currency's link to the dollar. It's elementary, my dear Watson.

Now, within this framework of global capital mobility and U.S. pre-eminence there are significant variations in the relative capital attractiveness of the various nations of this world. When foreign economic policies improve, and the foreign attractiveness to capital increases as a result, the first impact is a weakening of the U.S. terms-of-trade (the real exchange rate) followed much later by a fall in the U.S. capital surplus, i.e., trade deficit.

As of late, foreign economic policies have improved. France is a lot better today than it was three years ago. And -- shock of shocks! -- Germany is even considering a real tax cut. Jean- Claude Trichet has shown himself to be a world-class governor of the European Central Bank, following on the heels of the incompetent Wim Duisenberg. Five new entrants to the EU -- Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Slovakia -- have low-rate flat taxes. Junichiro Koizumi of Japan is a lot better than the former prime minister, Yoshiro Mori. Investors on the margin should look more favorably to investments abroad.

But even changes in exchange rates have limits. The dollar under current circumstances can't go to zero or infinity. Without a corresponding rise in domestic dollar prices, U.S. goods and assets become relatively more attractive to foreigners and Americans alike when there is a fall in the foreign-exchange value of the dollar. Sooner or later the dollar would be such a bargain that there would be more buyers than sellers, therefore limiting the dollar's fall. Today, the dollar's value in the foreign exchanges fits nicely within its historical range.

On Jan. 1, 1999, the euro was born and was worth $1.17. In fact, if we look at the synthetic euro prior to 1999, the dollar's low was in 1992 when each euro could buy $1.47. The large dollar appreciation from 1992 to early 2002 saw the dollar peak at 83 cents per euro and our capital surplus (the trade deficit) go from less than 1% of GDP to almost 4% of GDP (and continue on to today's 5.6%). Well, the global economic environment is changing once again as are investors' perceptions of relative attractiveness.

There have been times in the past when the dollar depreciation of the magnitude we've experienced over the last two-plus years would have been a clear harbinger of much higher inflation and interest rates. But such is not the case today. It is true that products which are freely traded in global markets will experience dollar price increases relative to foreign prices by the percentage depreciation of the dollar. But to have these exchange-rate induced price increases lead to higher U.S. inflation would require the Fed to accommodate the higher inflation with faster monetary-base growth. The Fed has not accommodated any higher inflation and as a result markets do not anticipate higher inflation. Nor should they.

* * *
Back in the late 1960s and '70s, currency depreciation was associated with domestic monetary creation and a horrendous bout of global inflation. Then, as opposed to now, currency depreciation was directly responsible for inflation, high interest rates, and low growth. We even coined a new word for low growth and high inflation -- stagflation. Aren't you glad we've had an epiphany of Fed policies under the leadership of both Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan?

The most natural, proper, and economically correct response of the foreign exchange markets is for the U.S. terms of trade to have declined and that's exactly what has happened. As far as I can tell, the decline in the dollar is about over; soon we will see the U.S. capital surplus falling back to more normal levels. When a global economic system works as well as ours does, we should just leave it alone.

Mr. Laffer is founder and chairman of Laffer Associates.

praga jan 19:38 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
thanks again,bobl!

San Diego bobl 19:34 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Pivot points...from the trading pits chicago...S & P pit traders have a simple mathmatical formula to calculate pivots based on previous days ranges, i.e. highs/lows...main trading areas.
They would have pivot, S1 and S2 (support level 1 and 2) and R1 and R2 (resistance level 1 and 2). Many trade platforms now automatically calculate pivot numbers...realtick for one (called auto pivots). The markets seem to work off these levels with great consistancy. For example, the eur/usd pivot today is 1.3575, which is exactly the last 10 hour high. Right now it is trading at exactly the S1 level of 1.3488. I find these numbers/ levels very worthwhile in trading.

Ldn 19:34 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
HAPPY NEW YEAR: N KOREA WARNS OF NUKE SHOWDOWN...
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20050102-123846-1239r.htm

stubbs manilla 19:34 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
descending wedge on gbp$. about to break out on the upside

San Diego bobl 19:21 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
one moment please...on phone

praga jan 19:16 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
bobl,what you mean by pivot points?thank you!

San Diego bobl 19:05 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Interesting commentary...
It appears to me that the majors have settled at pivot points; maybe we'll get a nod on the US close. Very interesting
EUR/JPY weekly chart. We either have a 2X top from June/2003 to now, or a large ascending wedge. Either scenario looks to offer some meat on longer term trade. I am going to be patient on this one, but for now see opportunities setting up at high break of 141 area or sell wedge break in 136 area. Could be a while but worth checking in on imo.

London. 18:36 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Europe Economics: Three Pitfalls and a Proposal
Joachim Fels ''''''Europe's contribution to balancing the world: three don't's and a do. What can and should old, growth-impaired Europe do to contribute to a reduction in global imbalances? I discuss three pitfalls that should be avoided and end with a modest proposal.
Pitfall #1: accepting a much stronger euro. This would likely abort the economic recovery in the euro area by hitting both exports and capital spending. The ECB is right to call euro strength undesirable. It should not hesitate to let words follow deeds and intervene in FX markets if the euro rallies further.
Pitfall #2: an even more expansionary monetary policy. Cutting interest rates to stimulate demand would pump up money and credit growth and asset prices further and would thus jeopardize financial stability. Japan's experience of the late 1980s suggests that cheap credit comes with a high price tag.
Pitfall #3: more profligate fiscal policies. Europe's long-run demographic problems argue for a tighter, not a looser fiscal policy. Moreover, European consumers understand the fiscal plight: Rising budget deficits would likely induce private households to save more, as they have in recent years.
The predictable proposal: structural reforms, especially in the service sector. Europe has made progress on many reform fronts in recent years. The recent attempts to deregulate labour markets need to be continued. But most of all, Europe needs to free its still heavily regulated service sector to provide more jobs for the low-skilled.
morgan stanley

Lagos BA 17:48 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Daytraders, my 5 minute chart says euros a buy now. Any takers S/L 13460

perrie como 17:47 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Nothing so serious at the end for today. It was just the monthly orders for commercial hedging from out of US...

in a thin thin yet half holidays market

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 17:05 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
see u later to all.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:50 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
hope we meet exactly number ;-)

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:47 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
usd/cad.(1.2112)
sell for target 1.2070
cut swicth there.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:41 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
my strong recomend for eur/usd chart.
if touch 1.3515..please sell, but if show you 1.3435..please sell for target 1.3406..you can cut switch when touch 1.3406.

San Diego bobl 16:38 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
euro continues to trade around daily 20 ema (1.3472) and tomorrow's estimated central pivot (1.3480 area with today's range holding). my next add to usd/cad is 1.2163 which i would be very surprised to see in this session.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:29 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gbp/usd
my strong recomend.
sell gbp/usd when touch 1.9065 and cut reverse when touch 1.9014.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:25 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
hey friends.. which early will be touched for gbp/usd chart. 1.9065 or 1.9014? if touch 1.9065 before touch 1,9014 better sell there. but if touch 1.9014 before touch 1.9065..please buy.

beirut jb 16:14 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
hi traders

hope this 2005 will be good for u all and ur relatives, I especialy hope peace and justice to all poor people

EUR/$ if daily closed under 13514 could start the long waiting correction for this pair and sell the strenght wil be the play with STOP offcorse until further order 132/130
FWIW

austin edgy 16:13 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
last comment- on the 1 hr

austin edgy 16:13 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
latest fib AB indicates eur/$ just hit 61.8 retrace, could go climb to 3530 ish

San Diego bobl 16:04 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gold renewing it's slip...bods well for dollar; euro/$ spread chart would cross below 1.3000; need a lot more evidence to expect that, but certainly 34 failure on daily close would crack some stops

Dallas GEP 16:03 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
OK euro could bounce from here but close on this hourly candle suggests 1.3410 MAY be in the cards . USE martin's stop

AZ Ted 16:00 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Dallas, where'd ya leave your euro stop and what's your target if you could help out? tia

bkk david 15:50 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gep dallas
ok, i set stop as 1.3526 for short eurusd

Dallas GEP 15:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
David 1.3518 may be too tight. Use MArtin's suggested stop, I like it better

bkk david 15:37 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gep dallas
if short eurusd at 1.3493, what stop should be 1.3519

gold coast martin 15:35 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
fwiw..Short euro at 13491......t/p 13403...stop 13526....using 13518 as a short term resistance level.....for next 3 hours...g/t

Dallas GEP 15:26 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Well friends............choppy markets make difficult trading at best. USD/CAD is on decent support at 1.2080 (but volatile) Euro good short from 1.3490, stop above figure. usd/jpy looks like good long from 102.50 area

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:20 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
fxc..well in such a volitile mkt little things make a big difference most of the time...that's where I came from on that "suicidal" statement. Last news releases were good movers. back to trading.

Eilat Dolphin 15:16 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
But let's hear the Presidents first!

ny amc 15:16 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Paramus.NJ.............nice to see you back so soon. My issue should be resolved by the 22nd of this month. Hope all is well

dc fxq 15:14 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
one component of ISM negative only and construction spending was below expectations.

Why is is suicidal though? These are not major econ data for the US market, secondary at best.

Eilat Dolphin 15:14 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ only till the half hour candels turn negative. Could give the time for a short nap on my longitudes... hoping they wait.

gold coast martin 15:13 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   


quito_ecuador_valdez 15:08 GMT January 3, 2005

Data ignored again......market re-balancing itself after the euro binge of the last few months.......a close of 13285 before the 5th of january will set overall trend for the 1st Quarter....right now until 5th sell and buy on dips and enjoy pipfest.......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:12 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
well, dx, clearly the data was USD neg and it didnt do a darned thing, even in a volitile mkt...that's why it's suicidal...placed a E/$ long and it just sat there like an idiot.

dc fxq 15:10 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:08 GMT January 3, 2005
that should be a big dollar neg then...wth? This chart is suicidal.

Which is suicidal and why?

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:08 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
that should be a big dollar neg then...wth? This chart is suicidal.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:06 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
ISM Index Rises to 58.6 in Dec

Eilat Dolphin 15:05 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Minus .4 ON CONSTRUCTION INSTEAD OF + .4 EXPECTED.

Eilat Dolphin 15:04 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
58.6

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:03 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
humm...what was the news, fellas?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:01 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
I understand DC and thank you for your thoughts they are appreciated very much. GT

Belgrade Knez 15:01 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   

LET THIS YEAR BRING YOU EVERYTHING YOU DON'T HAVE IT AND YOU WANT IT, AND KEEP EVERYTHING YOU HAVE AND YOU LOVE IT.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

San Diego DC 14:59 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Miami OMIL ,

Thanks for your thoughts. I just want you to know for technicals I use high probbaility methods (not something like a stoch cross) but more time cycles coming together. My fill for long was 1.3453.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:56 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
I have main support for eur/usd pair around 3210-30 area until that support is taken out I am still buying dips on this pair.

San Diego DC 14:46 GMT January 3, 2005
The Technical picture can be deceiving at times like these but I do not have a buy signal on my intraday system yet. Better to wait a bit more and see if the smoke clears and more players join the action. I usually leave pips on the table but I go with the flow most of the time. GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:50 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
news will cause whipsaw city in this mkt no matter what it is. I only wish I could enter opposing trades on this platform, one or both always pay..like driving a car with 2 wheels.

london aas 14:48 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Well, dollar bears have had their fun (me included) since the US election. Don't be greedy; lock in the gains. Don't get caught attempting to catch falling knives, and over the past few days I believe the trend to have altered.

Call me contrarian, but when virtually every 'expert', analyst etc. is calling for a dollar decline that could be taken as a sign to buy the greenback.

Oh yes, watch out for the consumer debt bubble to make itself felt in Britain and the US next autumn. That won't be too pretty when it bursts, as it surely will.

Happy hunting guys.

HK Kevin 14:46 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
OH, my last post should refer to EUR/USD

San Diego DC 14:46 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies , Miami OMIL,

EUR /$ is long now with technicals.

HK Kevin 14:45 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
IIMHO., EUR/JPY is going to vibrate btw 1.3440 and 1.3540/50 before a test of 1.3340. After that, we may seen 1.38 or 1.29.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:44 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
good idea OMIL, YU racked up bocoos of pips here..news out 17 mins..fundamentals play big when the fat cats are away.
Nov is notorious for bad construction figures...who knows...street says up 5% (from DALLAS GEP )but... ISM..anyone got a clue on what expected is vs prev?

Eilat Dolphin 14:43 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
A Euro climb in the next hours is like a splint on a wooden leg for the next days.

gold coast martin 14:37 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
fwiw....closed euro and gbp shorts....only yen longs remain...g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:36 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
sheesh fellas, I think it's time for mini lots! LOL This is like trying to stuff a rattle snake into a Coke bottle. I leave 50% of my pips on the table.

Eilat Dolphin 14:28 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
The 4H candels look surrealistic, headless.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:25 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 14:15 GMT January 3, 2005
I actually have as support right now 3440-50 but momentum in this thin market is dangerous and can whipsaw in and out of the technical realm so I believe the key support is the safer place for now as strong support IMHO. GT

Eilat Dolphin 14:24 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
viies/ Touch and goes are good for us. If people want to take the E another 20 ps... I'll feel more confident for another ride.
Down that is. As the rate of descent was too steep for my liking. An aversion for stall warning signals.

I still don't see your up trend soon.

david bkk 14:22 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
if eurusd, settle dust at above 1.3450.
I will buy 1.3458 stop 1.3438.

I think about 1 hour see again

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:21 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Gold has broken T/L (433.30-40) and is testing support (427.50-60) right now. This pair is bearish and with more room to go I have support at 415.20-30 with key support at 410.20-30 and main support at 409.20-30 IMHO. GT

San Diego bobl 14:21 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Gold getting smacked again; another strong support level being tested here; bullish for usd crosses

San Diego bobl 14:18 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Great calls on euro sells; daily up channel being tested in this area with substantial support @ 1.3400

Tallinn viies 14:15 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:13 GMT - hard to see that...
1,3420/25 should contain it for now!
I will buy it at 1,3429 and stop sell all at 1,3369
fwiw

Tallinn viies 14:14 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 14:11 GMT - extremly stable I would say

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:13 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Looks like a retest of key support 3380-3400 for the eur/usd pair is in the cards for now.

Eilat Dolphin 14:11 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Stabilization.

San Diego bobl 14:11 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
usd/cad added 1.2114; suspect a pullback

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:10 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
David, had I listened to your target I would stoll be shorting..reentered at 1.3457

San Diego bobl 14:06 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
If you prefer daytrading and took usd/cad, an offer of 1.2105 would yield 50 pips; personally, I am adding if 2114 prints for longer term trade; stop now b/e @ entry 1.2055

slv sam 14:05 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Happy new year everybody!
1.3470 already 200 pips correction in e/$...in my opinion another 200 pips and then we test 1.38xx

Mumbai Jay 14:03 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
EU ZORRO ..Thanks.. GL & GT

Tallinn viies 13:59 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 13:47 GMT - not so close mate, this is next entry level. personally planning to buy more near 1,3415-35 area. let see

Tallinn viies 13:58 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
nice fight here near 1,3470 but I guess as long as US data doesnt suprise us euro should test highs again

Livingston nh 13:56 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD spike last week not confirmed by daily MACD - 1.3425 (21 da sma) may be weak support if cable continues to fall and swissy closes at or above current level

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:55 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
closed my €/$ short at 3470...'cause I got no conviction...nervous. gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:53 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Intraday indicators for eur/usd are turning bearish now as we continue the wild scramble on today’s thin market. I will wait for the smoke to clear to get a better idea where this is really going IMHO. GL GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:51 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
closed Euro short at 1.3476..too soon again..thanks David! nice callski.

. 13:51 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Every market has a bid and an offer. The difference between the bid and the offer is the spread!

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:48 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
No Olso, I was actually that ignorant. (Valdez's burro agrees)

bkk david 13:47 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Tallin viie
what stop of eurusd should be?
I think will buy 1.3464, stop 1.3440

San Diego bobl 13:47 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Will add usd/cad @ 1.2114 as per post...s/l raised to 1.2038

Tallinn viies 13:46 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
1,3470/75 needs to hold to keep upside favoured imho

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:46 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD has edged back below intraday support at 1.3505 with the dollar getting a lift from an early rally in equity futures as well as a significant pullback in oil prices. Keep an eye on US interest rates today; five out of the last six years
have seen sizeable selloffs in Treasuries with yields rising an average 16.5 bp on the first trading day in January. Support is very thin on pullbacks given the wild price action overnight. Very modest support is at 1.3470 and 1.3450. (IFR)

oslo oskar 13:43 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:34 GMT January 3, 2005

you are pulling our legs with that aren't you?

Tallinn viies 13:42 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
bought euros at 1,3483. fwiw
target 1,3575 first

EU ZORRO 13:42 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Mumbai Jay 12:57.....

...IMO...below 1,34 is cheap.....below 1,30 it's a bargain...!!!!

...4 EURJPY....below 138 is cheap....below 135 it's a bargain...

...HAPPY 2005 2 U 2...!!!!

jkt-aye 13:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
ups ... is it 1.24xx ?

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
I don't use that platform, but would assume 2nd number refers to ask price. shorted €/$ with the rest of the world at 3500. gt

jkt-aye 13:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Valdez 13:34 ... it is 1.2499/1.2503.
Happy New Year ALL.

Eilat Dolphin 13:39 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
valdez/ Sexo Three Pips. Their software is outstanding.

San Diego bobl 13:37 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Of note...copper very strong and currently on major breakout

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:37 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
yea David!

bkk david 13:35 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
valdez
time to short eurusd 1.3500, target 1.3465 stop 1.3530

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:34 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Excuse my ignorance..on the Sax-o ticker (offered here) what's the second number for? Such as EURUSD 1.2499/503..what's the 503 for? I've never used this before..great lil tool.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:26 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin, if this year does for me what last week did, (mucho $$) our Leers may collide in mid air seeing eachother! GT...looks like 1.3500 was breached...onward and downward.

Eilat Dolphin 13:21 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ if somehow, (don't ask me how), this year continues like the last week, I'll soon come to see pick you up with a Lear enroute to the Touamoutous; but I don't see why it should. :^(

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:20 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Hi victor! Sorry I haven't answered ANY emails for over 2 weeks..no time. Bad me. My hits and runs thus far this AM have nullified themselves..zip, nada, zilch. I stink at raiding in these low liquidity times..before New Yr I was hot.

San Diego bobl 13:19 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Opening first leg USD/CAD...1.2055; system buys here and adds 1.2114; s/l=1.2013

prague viktor 13:13 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez ....amigo for today the best system is oil man one Hit and Run...G/T

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:12 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin..you and marty agree more or less..off to an excellent start for '05 amigos..keep smiling. cable seemsto be wanting trend bullish from GMT 12:oo.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:06 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
tks dolphin..btw ties=times in my last post.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:05 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
The pair with the most propensity of error is swissy...8 ties more have longed it rather than shorted it and therefore have negitive realized p/l.

Eilat Dolphin 13:02 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Valdez 12:36/ Today the clue is that there is no clue.

However the E/$ still has some strength around here 3515, for a while, then my most educated guess is that the E will sink below the figure and remain below later in the afternoon at the latest.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:01 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
below was for EUR/USD only but other major pairs exhibit the same error propensity or worse.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:59 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
While we're waiting for the next wave of pip assasins:

One feature of my platform is I can see the statistics on possies their traders have placed.
long trend: usd/cad usd/yen & usd/chf in 90% percentile.

short trend: eur/usd, eur/gbp

Raios of open trades (long and short)
eur/usd approx 40%, usd/jpy approx 20%, usd/chf approx 20%

If your open possies are on the losing side you don't stand alone:
..of all open trades on my platform, the trend is the majority (3:1) of all now open trades that were entered to long are sustaining a higher current price (negitive realized P/L). Following the same error propensity, 3 times more trades (shorts) were entered at a price below the current price (negitive realized p/l).

Put that in your pipe and smoke it a while. :^) GT.

Mumbai Jay 12:57 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
EU ZORRO 0918 GMT.. Have followed your gr8 calls on m/t moves...What in your view is cheap lvl for EUR & EURJPY.. TIA and HAPPY 2005

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:44 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Profit talking by German names in EUR/GNP has helped to take the edge off EUR/USD. Early New York interest has been on the sell side with Investment names reportedly pressuring the EUR back to the low 1.35"s from earlier, European, highs around 1.3570-73. Good-sized offers are still touted in the
market in the 1.3570-80 area and bids close to 1.3500. Sentiment remains dollar negative and the latest dollar bounce looks to have been fueled by EUR cross weakness rather than any direct dollar pep. (IFR)
You are welcomed Valdez

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Historically more than 75% of the time between (GMT) 12:30 & 13:15 on E/$ we see a small spike at NY open..let's see..maybe 12:20 spike was it.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:36 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
The compulsion to trade this mess....sit on my hands literally. Tried a few small raid possies, no gain no loss. Yuck. ANYONE have a clue? Tks OMIL 4 ur post. I guess the absence of London to direct this mkt is showing. Even raiding break even for me today. Sure as hades if I put in a swing trade possie it will eat me up.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:34 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Eur/usd has a chance that with the thin market as it is we could be seen a defined range (3480-3600) for now until everyone wakes up and places their bets.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:25 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Eur/usd pair has good support now around the 3380-3400 area and intraday indicators are turning bullish so if the bears don’t take this support out soon this might force others to close their short positions and boost the bullish move IMHO. GL GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:24 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
whew! there is certainly no logic I can see to trade this chart today...I guess that's typical of thin mkts. E/$ behaving beastial.

gold coast martin 12:22 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
old possie......as per old post of this morning...

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:19 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
that means you JUST shorted Euro or is that your old possie?

gold coast martin 12:07 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
valdez.....shorted euro with stop at 13602...target 13461....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:25 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
sorry marty..dodn't see your post..please excuse.
gold coast martin 09:30 GMT January 3, 2005
SHORT EURO....13564....T/P13461////..STOP...13513602...

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:23 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
marty..hate to bug you..confused on your post..are U SHORTING or LONGING E/$ at this time?

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:18 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
on your short..you meant to say "long"?

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:17 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
tks marty

gold coast martin 11:15 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:11 GMT January 3, 2005
si signor.....will shed a little more weight...have target of 13461 on my short...........g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:11 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Back..no sooner than I went to sleep action started. Martin...USD to lose more?

gold coast martin 11:02 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
fwiw.....Moved stop on gbp short to entry point of 19126.....g/t

Ldn 10:19 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
dc fxq a bird in the hand !!

dc fxq 10:16 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
WSJ (p. M1) - Betting on currency movements can be a lot like skating on a frozen pond: It's great gliding along smoothly...until you fall through the ice. Indeed, for the past three months, traders and international investors have made a bundle wagering that the dollar would keep weakening. Now they are wondering if the antidollar bet can continue to pay off. Nearly all think it will, even though many remain wary of a temporary dollar rebound. Last year the dollar fell sharply through the latter part of 2003 and first few weeks of 2004 -- weakening to $1.29 against the euro in February -- only to suddenly regain ground and subsequently bounce up and down within a fairly narrow range for the next seven months. Many speculators are carrying big short-dollar positions -- bets that the dollar will keep tumbling. With so much money lined up against the greenback, any dollar recovery -- no matter how temporary -- could be exaggerated as traders who bet big on a continued dollar decline would have to scramble to buy dollars to lock in profits or cover losses.

London. 09:54 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Euro ETF Action Could Be Warning Of Future Trend Change Says Dr. Joe Duarte...
On December 30, Duarte noted: ?the European ETFs made new highs, and show signs of recovering. But, it?s hard to make sense of anything in the last few trading days of the year. What happens after the first week of 2005 will tell us more.?
Duarte continued: ?Germany's ETF racked up a 27% rise during a period in which the U.S. Dollar Index lost about 10% of its value. The Euro on its own, had a major role in the dollar's fall.
But Germany's economy, usually the engine of growth in Europe is not expected to move too rapidly. That means that EWG may be the canary in the coal mine for a change in trends in the currency markets.?
Duarte also added: ?The U.K. ETF is weaker than the German ETF, which is interesting on its own, since the U.K. economy has been more robust of late, as it has been riding a housing boom.
A break below 17.60 on EWU would be a signal that a more serious change of heart has occurred in the market.?
As with Germany's ETF, France's I-shares made a new high on 12-30
FinancialWire.net

DAC MZ 09:49 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Hihi all

whats the view on eur/usd pls

Los Angeles ss 09:43 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Raden Mas -- glad to see you are okay, worried about you. Welcome back!

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 09:43 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 09:32 GMT January 3, 2005
thanks. but I loose five friends there. :-(

London. 09:38 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
SOME PROS SEE DOLLAR BUCKING UP IN '05
http://www.nypost.com/business/37645.htm

bkk david 09:34 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
any one
take profit eurusd 1.3567

Budapest Daniel 09:32 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Hi Raden, I'm glad you're all right!

gold coast martin 09:32 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
correction....stop 13602.....g/t

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 09:31 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
hello all !!
· eur/usd
Level sell
3825,4282,4859
Level buy :
3373,3284,3190,2909,2800

· Gbp/usd
Level sell
9111,9190,9230, 9622,9700,9722,9753,9817
Level buy
8986 (done),8965,8869,8812,8775,8745,8581


· Usd/jpy
Level sell
108.65, 108.83
Level buy
101.74, 100.24, 99.94, 96.17, 94.51


· Usd/chf
Level sell
1700,1718,1748,1765,1793,1810,1820,1857
Level buy
1411, 1400,1385,1237,1110

· Aud/usd
Level sell
0.8241
Level buy
0.7274

· Gold
Level sell
448.06,449.45,449.84,451.81, 456.89
Level buy
430.87,429.89,426.15,418.87



gold coast martin 09:31 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
extend stops on gbp to 19178 from 19158....

Tallinn viies 09:30 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
we are going to see nice stop hunt.
heard lot of stops over Asian higher - over 1,3585/90
happy hunting

gold coast martin 09:30 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
SHORT EURO....13564....T/P13461////..STOP...13513602...

hong kong nt 09:25 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
GBP -- 1.90-1.92 may build the base for 1.96+, 50-day ma likely to protect the downside...

athens kos44 09:23 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Hi to all and happy the new year. What happens with censored platform still is close.
Good trade to all

bkk david 09:22 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
any one
eurusd changing to buy 1.3525, stop 1.3500 target 1.3580

Syd 09:19 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
EUR/JPY climax reversal over the last few days could be a massive, cyclical top that sets a bearish tone for the foreseeable future.

sax.o

EU ZORRO 09:18 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Hi all...

...For 2005...again...will try to buy cheap EUROS in all crosses....!!!!

Tallinn viies 09:02 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
perrie como 08:28 GMT - all year or only couple of days?

bkk usd 08:55 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
eurusd should retest 1.3465 at least or 1.3440 before uptrend. then short 1.3424, stop 1.3549 target 1.3470

Syd 08:54 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
We may see one more rally on the Euro but think thats it for a couple of months, could press for 137-38 but think that those who have good profit will cash up early - end of month happenings Iraq election , Bush speech

perrie como 08:28 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
I think I will also delete certain prices from my forex database

pure non sense

gold coast martin 08:24 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
fwiw.....Looking to short GBP at 19126 level with t/p at 19031...stop ....19157.....timeframe 3 hours ....(monitored cosely due to thin liquidity)...g/t

perrie como 08:21 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Hope the Sax analysit is looking here, while I would tell him that making analysis on such 1 minute 1< pct higher squeezes technically tells me the market is yet under champaigne ALOT

happy chaos 2005

btw to me the dolar will loose yet much more next months

Eilat Dolphin 08:21 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Syd/ and we almost had it at first shot. I am out and to the waves as this compassless market needs to reset.

Syd 08:16 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Sax.o Bank says that a reversal above 1.3550 is required to discourage the current bearish EUR/USD outlook, otherwise another test of 1.3390, followed by correction back to 1.3100 is on the cards

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:11 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
FWIW after a bounce from key support good resistance is found now around the 3580-3600 area for the eur/usd pair. GT

Eilat Dolphin 08:10 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
martin/ with caution indeed... Still shorting the E from here, while waiting for the USAeans to wake up and correct the excesses of the Euroeans who corrected the excesses of the Asiaeans who multiplied the excesses of the Americans Friday afternoon.

Sydney 08:09 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD TECHS: Bull Run Momentum Fades, Risk To 0.7670 IFR

gold coast martin 08:03 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 07:55 GMT January 3, 2005

market this morning was middle eastern......market beginning now, is trying to entice players into euro longs (of course the herd will follow since the trend has been to sell dollars),until after tonites US data when another round of euro selling is looming.....false starts and break outs are the theme until the 5th of january.....trade with caution....g/t

Tallinn viies 07:59 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
if markets follow the pattern from the past (first trading days of the new year) we would close near 1,3660-1,3700. imho

Eilat Dolphin 07:55 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Martin/ That E pullback momentum is unusual too.

Los Angeles ss 07:55 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Anyone with any views on cable?

gold coast martin 07:53 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....after the 3 hour lull(previous post) euro has resistance at 13528...look for 13474 again withinthe next 2 hour session....g/t

Tallinn viies 07:50 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
good morning world!
HAPPY NEW YEAR!

nice to see sharp fall was done after I got out of my long euro position over 1,3650. low for the time being should be 1,3380/85 which was traded during thin market hours....
means that someone let it down, maybe even pushed a little just for the reason to buy at lower levels later when liquidity will be there again. as we may see it right now, market believes real value should be higher. I guess at least 1,3555/65 level will be seen before NYC close.
unfortunatelly wasnt awake yet to buy euros near the lows. will wait to see dust to settle...
good luck

Eilat Dolphin 07:49 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   


let me see, let me see... By applying Valdez First Law of FXdynamics, I should wait to short E again.

Let's see if his law also work while he sleeps ?...

Ldn 07:42 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
CNBC europe analyst says Euro 40-50% overvalued again asian currencies .. Roger Nightingale.

LA fxnew 07:25 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
fxt:
since you are that good .... can u give me an advice for cable now?
thanks

la fxt 06:54 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
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KL 06:14 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY is 103.02 now, will it go down to 102.40 again by today ?

gold coast martin 05:55 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   



Eilat Dolphin 05:35 GMT January 3, 2005
HNY eilat.......the non-believers in christmas and santa claus (ARABS)have fired the first shots in forex for 2005.....

VALDEZ..You have email......

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:51 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Two articles which say USD will continue decline in 2005:

1 & 2.

sgp sp 05:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Happy New Year nt,

want to come in? byron and I are discussing some things....just need your prescence...

gl & gt 2 u

Sydney 05:38 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
USD Star Performer So Far In 2005
IFR

Ldn 05:36 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Dollar Strengthens Versus Euro Before U.S. Manufacturing Report
Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose versus the euro, and the yen extended gains against Europe's common currency in Asia before a U.S. manufacturing report.

Eilat Dolphin 05:35 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Martin/ I know of at least one account (though minute) that already moved in the M.E. Felt like skiing down the a slope since 13650.
Out of it now, as I feel that a 200+ E down move even before the first western banker woke up is a bit overdoing the paranoïa bit, at least on the time chart.
So I plan to let them N.Y. finish their morning coffee before I put them skis back.

Los Angeles Byron 05:32 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt //
NT sifu -- Hope you have a healthy and prosperous year of 2005, many good trades to you!!!

hong kong nt 05:29 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
AB -- Happy New Year, expecting a gathering for HKer in the start of 2005...

hong kong nt 05:28 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
BC -- Hope you have a healthy and prosperous year of 2005, many good tradesto you...

hong kong nt 05:27 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
EURO -- for ST trades, above 1.335, bias remains bullish for 1.375+...

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:26 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
wow..had no idea London was off today.

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:25 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Korea Development Bank said yesterday that the won would strengthen 11% to average 1,020 against the dollar, as the U.S. government is expected to maintain a weak dollar policy.
"Although there are several factors that could weaken the won, such as a slow economic recovery, a declining Korean current account surplus and rising U.S. interest rates, there are stronger factors that could strengthen the won," said an official at the bank.
He said the U.S. government would stick to its weak dollar policy because of increasing current account deficits. He added that Beijing will probably strengthen the Chinese yuan against the dollar.
Other financial institutes' forecasts are similar to the bank's.

gold coast martin 05:21 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 05:17 GMT January 3, 2005
No London trading today ...but in 3 hours we should get some movement out of middle eastern accounts....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:17 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Real whacked out Intellichart data feed on EUR/CHF & E/$! oh-anda didn't show it..someone's doing big moves or the data feef was whack-o
I think it's best to reiterate the principle.."Never feel compelled to trade"..one of Valdez's prime rules. The saliva hasn't dried on our chins from last week so we shouldn't get frisky until we see a sho'nuff (beyond a doubt) good moves as martin has been so kind as to have forseen/shared this session. Tokyo winding down...zzzzzzzz, 3 hrs before London's kick to get this thing moving. And as posted by someone below..next week big fish will show their game plan as we scavengers lurk.

4 now..E/$ is longing last 45 minutes + 22 pips.

#1: Never short a longing chart.

Gecko, Raden Mas..are you safe fellas?

I encourage a resolution: Let's be pros on the FF this year...no more food fights nor insults for people who take their time to OPTIONALLY post in their busy day. :^) There's far too much good info to share. martin, email me..handle is my yahoo.

Van jv 04:53 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
some platforms are still closed---when most US platf. will open?

NJ RT 04:50 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 04:45 GMT January 3, 2005
Thank you .... I will follow up that. Anyway, I did hedge the possie with very short s/l @ 103.30 with a limit @102.75 LEt's see ... Thnx ....g/t

gold coast martin 04:49 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
NJ....Review all possies in 3 hours as any new possies now will be trading in no-mans land for the next 3 hours....g/t

gold coast martin 04:45 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 04:42 GMT January 3, 2005
Post below should help......for now do not short irrespective of macd......inho...g/t

gold coast martin 04:43 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....YEN minor support at 10274...and major SUPPORT STILL AT 10244-46(+ OR - 5-8 PIPS)......Should 10274 hold for 2 hours ,yen to go to 10378.......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:42 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Remember last week, I heard of a gob of Euros out there waiting to be dumped...martin could confirm/deny this...dunno if the last 2 days trading was that or not..feel not...the € gob is supposedly way too big to make this sized move up for USD. Beisdes EUR/GBP behaved - mostly 7080 & 7050.. & EUR/CHF the same & stable between 1.5435-1.5480..so it isn't Sr. Euro that's powering this..it is a plain simple surge for dollar demand. This chart looks spooky and like a wasp poised to sting..my burro says best to be out of this til it comes out clean.

NJ RT 04:42 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 04:09 GMT January 3, 2005
I had to step away from the computer for a bit .... closed one of my possie @103.10 - didn't get the peak but still + 41 pips. I still have my first possie @ 103.28 .... don't realy know what to do with that. MACD tell me that I should go short. What do u think. .... And again, you were right thnx gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:31 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
RT..I closed yen short..never was long, tht was martin. When it gets like this poised to strike I go flat..no telling what'll happen 'til it happens. Everyone's either closed or stopped out..market shudder..good time to quit and rest for London. (now watch it blow up!) Buenas noches todos..yawn. All I can say is watch the MACD, FAST AND SLOW STOCH.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:25 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
E/$ MACD-touch again parallelling..no cross...no signal..slow stoch-no signal, fast stoch..no signal 5m candle no signal, yen climbing some..swissy flat lining

NJ RT 04:22 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 04:18 GMT January 3, 2005
Wasn't too early Valdez?

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:18 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
closed yen..23 pips

gold coast martin 04:09 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
RE:YEN FIGURE OF 10378......for those who trade on 3 day time frames...the above target is still applicable on the 3 day timeframe...left some yen longs for a 3 day trade....waiting for next forex tsunami(with due respect for the victims of the rela one)....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:07 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
tks SYD..good to know.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:04 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
shorted yen spike at 1.0325

gold coast martin 04:02 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
10233=10332

Syd 04:01 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
"Everybody bailing out" of USD shorts, boosting USD/JPY nearly Y1 to 103.30 and pushing down EUR/USD to near psychologically important 1.3400, says foreign bank dealer in Singapore; expects further unwinding of USD shorts in holiday-thinned markets, which could lift USD further across board dJ

gold coast martin 04:01 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
exited swiss at 11544...and aud at 7729...closed part of yen longs at 10233...g/t

gold coast martin 03:57 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 00:52 GMT January 3, 2005
Good morning...re:usd/jpy..for today look for a bounce from the 10244-46 support base that has held for the last 2 days ,to a first initial target of 10286 ,after which the 10327 should be taken on the way to 10378..with further upside gains expected as the market resumes normality,,,,,,,g/t

Above post still applies...g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:56 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
no prob marty..didn't enter yen short yet..sheesh I should long the bustard..reentered E short

gold coast martin 03:53 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito...yes to play it safe wait for the 30 minute breach of the 10297.....which i by looking at my flows unlikely to occur...g/t......stay long for now....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:53 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
closed e/$ short..whataride...maybe too soon...my BAD habit.

gold coast martin 03:52 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito....if yen short now does not breach 10297 in 30 minutes,,,,,cut out.....sorry ..just my systems correlation requires a live feed in order to convey the figures accurately as per each time frame.....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:52 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
marty...waiting just a sec here...gotta see that red candle...what think?

gold coast martin 03:48 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
shorten yen now valdez......

gold coast martin 03:47 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
more down side expected for swiss,and aud,...fwiw...g/t

Boulder DAT 03:46 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Valdez. Not so sure I'll jump in to short the dollar until the "dust settles" on this current move. Not so sure that Europe will follow through on this. The speed of this move is impressive if nothing else.

gold coast martin 03:42 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
AUD target of 7744 extended to 7707....fornow...g/t

gold coast martin 03:41 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...extended Swissy t/p target from 11508 to 11548....target for yen long still applies...g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:38 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
DAT// that $ rally was over Yen too..USD's on a temp correction move...who knows what's driving it other than 1st day buying-in. All I know is I shorted $/E when several old timers mentioned the support numbers below 1.3480..$/¥ still climbing.

Ldn 03:35 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc as always many thanks for your help

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:31 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
marty..keep posting! Your prob is you quit drinking champagne a day ago.(cheers from the gallery)

marty..say when to short $/¥ spike OK? What a call for your swissy and yen longs! Who needs firewords when you're around?

BC..big yes on your post...US admin WANTS real cheap $$..but eyeing past history for Swissy which says Swissy's all time extreme was within 500 pips of now..which means Swissy can fall basically 400-500 more before a 10 year support is breached...powerful support. What think?

Boulder DAT 03:30 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Okay... I've searched. I can't seem to find the reason for the dollar rally against the Europeans. Has anyone heard anything as to why the move like this.

I'd like to go long some of these currencies but don't want to step in front of something big.

shanghai bc 03:20 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   

VALDEZ --Bounce of Dollar Index to 85--87 for the next two to four months..

shanghai bc 03:19 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   

LDN --Good morning.. Euroland's economy is in bad shape and Japan's is no better and China's is in bubble territory and US's is in no position to pull another hat trick this time..When it comes to everyman for himself,Dollar will be the easiest target to shoot down..And I am sure US administration will be more than happy to see Dollar getting weaker as long as asset markets are in good shape..Understandably,stocks and bonds have been rising on the back of weakening dollar in recent years..So,this is the best of the both world for US administration and weak Dollar policy will be continued till it does not work..After all ,there is nothing to lose but lots to gain for US administration in this..Good trades..

gold coast martin 03:19 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
disregard last cable post...........wrong correlation reading by me.......this forex gods way of saying ...stop posting.......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:17 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
bc// "but for the next two to four months we may have a decent Dollar bounce which may take Dollar up to 85-87 at least,"

...you mean $/¥ may touch 85-87 by the looks of it?

gold coast martin 03:16 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
10991=19091......correction

gold coast martin 03:14 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....cable has support at 1091....dont expect this support to be breached,,,, not prior to the 5th of january.....should 19091 print within next 24 hours than a bounce to 19189 levels is expected......g/t

shanghai bc 03:02 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   

VALDEZ --Good morning..This year,I am a short-term Dollar bear,a medium-term Dollar bull and a long-term Dollar bear ..By that what I mean is,we may see further Dollar lows in coming weeks on Euro and Yen front but for the next two to four months we may have a decent Dollar bounce which may take Dollar up to 85-87 at least,purely a technical medium-term bounce of Dollar..But that bounce is likely to be short-lived and Dollar may fall to new lows this year again..As far as Asians and their CBs and their several trillion Dollar mountains are concerned,Dollar is still extremely overbought and any decent medium-term bounce is still a good level to sell Dollars to balance their trillion Dollar savings.. This is over and above 600 billion Dollars of "Dollar puts" Americans are putting in on trade front each year..Good trades..

gold coast martin 03:02 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 01:00 GMT January 3, 2005
median figure13297=median figure 13497......correction.....

Ldn 02:49 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Shanghai BC, have noticed JP Morgan and the like constantly express the view (Further USD weakness likely in 2005, writes JP Morgan) is this would you say trying to sway the market due to their positions ?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:46 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Valdez I have no positions active at this moment closed all my positions before the year was over and now waiting to see how deep this correction goes or better yet waiting for the real money to hit the market once again. Like BC said it probably won’t be until next week for most participants to join in the market. GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:40 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
OMIL..what possies do you have active? TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:37 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Key retracement number for eur/usd pair is in the 3460-70 area not the 3445-55 area. First mistake of the year I started early.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:37 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
tks OMIL. HNY amigo.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:31 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Hope everyone had a good holiday. Eur/usd pair is heading for a deeper correction in this thin market as I said before a break of the 3520 support will lead to a deeper correction with the next support coming around the 3480-3500 area. The mode is to buy on dips still in the cards for this pair.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3580-3600, 3650-70, 3700-10, 3750-60 and 3800-10. Key target 3560-70 and main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3585-95, 3540-50, 3500-10, 3460-70 and 3410-20.
Retracement numbers are 3540-50, 3460-70, 3395-3405, 3335-45 and 3260-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3490-3500, 3390-3400, 3300-10, 3210-20, and 3110-20 for now key retracement number is 3445-55.
Resistance T/L 3620-30 and Support T/L 3390-3410 for now.
Support is around the 3520-40, 3480-90, 3440-50, 3380-3400, 3340-50, 3310-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, and 3130-40 for now key support is around the 3380-3400 area IMHO. GL GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:24 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
bc// Just for fun, what's your gut feeling on my model..which says a massive several week E/$ short soon...after 2nd week max...?? Any opinion here or are you neutral bias?

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:18 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
tks bc..all the best to you in '05 amigo. Your dedication to this forum is incredible.

shanghai bc 02:13 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   

Yen's seasonal tendency is to get strong against most pairs during the first two months of each year..Today's Asian move is an attempt to get on the move early..Eur/Jpy 137 may be the next target with Eur/Usd 1.3450 with it..Then,we have to wait till the boys all return to work next week before the real move of the year starts..

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:10 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
True story marty and you're a master at money flow information..maybe on Help forum you could jot down a few tips for us on that when you get a chance.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:04 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
newer traders..note E/$ now...MACD didn't touch...almost...tricky stuff for scalping....almost like the devil himself is trading against the charts. Sideline football sometimes is better than getting beaten up in the game.

gold coast martin 02:01 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
QUITO...my correlation values are based on market flows at different timeframes...to keep it simple ....i try to determine where the money is...where it is going and how long it will stay there.....with such a system often direction is more correct than the predicted timeframe...timeframes are the killer....anyhow....no such thing as easy money......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:55 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
As the year unfolds, normalcy will return as always..but as someone posted below, we're still in Friday's fracus. This is the riskiest part of the year in which to trade unless one is a seasoned trader. I think it's wisest for newer traders especially day traders to either trade mini lots or not trade. Just for kicks MACD btw on E/$ is about to show a buy...but I won't shoot til I see that line cross. (12,26,9) It's been closeish on this chart this morning several times then reversed.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:47 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
marty..many here are shorter term traders and if a c'ncy doesn't react IMMEDIATELY then they get nervous, forgetting the longer term trends. Right now for example E/$ by my model is a short..long term. But danged if I say short it..someone will say - Sheesh Valdez, it's longing! I personally know your trading style of longer term day to possie trading, by many here don't. Tks for all your input to the FF last year..please stick around for 20 or so years!

gold coast martin 01:35 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 01:22 GMT January 3, 2005
There is a thing in correlation as LAG....One currency pair often lags behind the other.....the aud is a perfect example....the cable exhibited signs of lagging last week against the euro..but it eventually caught up....what i am saying is ..be patient.......enough from me today...g/t

bkk david 01:35 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
If you observe gbpjpy, eurjpy, chfjpy, you will see that
now jpy is so strong across the aboard.
usdjpy is also difficult to up so much.

dc fxq 01:30 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 01:22 GMT

Just my WAG here, but its all about the "power" of the Yen, EURJPY is more vulnerable at the moment than USDJPU spo therein is part of the problem. Remember ther are lots of markers closed tonight and tomorrow so it is an extension of the Friday frolics,

gold coast martin 01:29 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 01:23 GMT January 3, 2005
While the euro has got a short term bias of weakness(next 24-48 hours} i frankly cannot see the yen falling too much below the previously posted support figure of 10244-10246....imho of course......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:27 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Tks marty, you always come thru for us. I lack the technical skills you have.

gold coast martin 01:24 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:18 GMT January 3, 2005
YES......usd/jpy longs for the next 2-3 days.....aud long term shorts ...and nzd long term shorts.....have just entered swiss at 11417 with target of 11508.....for now.....g/t

bkk david 01:23 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
usdjpy should move againt others.
see target 101.80 comming

NJ RT 01:22 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Just broke that 44 support .... I start beleiving that the corelation between eur/usd and usd/jpy is realy none ....

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:18 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Tks martin...have you any active trades on the board..if so, what? TIA, GT!!

NJ RT 01:16 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Martin, Valdez ... hope you had a good New Year celebration. Good to see you again :) Now back to work ... hehehe

gold coast martin 01:14 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:56 GMT January 3, 2005
Good morning..HNY...As market resumes normality the safe haven status of the swissy fades due to end of silly season...as a default of the short term weakening euro,look for a trading range of 11387-11508 for the swissy...the median trading figure it will gravitate towards is 11454......g/t.........

london rb 01:12 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
maybe you should have left berlin wall up

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:07 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
martin.. and Swissy?
Tks amigo

gold coast martin 01:00 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
RE:24 hour correlation between euro/usd and aud/usd....for next 24 hours euro trading between 13558-13468...with a median figure of 13297 will produce a range of 7823-7744 with a median figure of 7789...please note the median figures in both ranges are figures that the market is gravitating mostly towards(a type of super magnet figure if you want to call it that}......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:56 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Martin! HNY amigo. whatcha see in your cards for E/$ & swissy today?

Tempe kbb 00:55 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Cape Town,yes a very good year for our friends in SA.Would you like to share your thoughts on the Rand and your equity market for 2005? Have made a small profit this year trading both and hope springs eternal.TIA

gold coast martin 00:52 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Good morning...re:usd/jpy..for today look for a bounce from the 10244-46 support base that has held for the last 2 days ,to a first initial target of 10286 ,after which the 10327 should be taken on the way to 10378..with further upside gains expected as the market resumes normality,,,,,,,g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:43 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
ICT ML// HNY amigo! so what's your gut on E/$ for the 1st week?

NJ RT 00:42 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
Happy new years guys ....any view on USD/JPY ... on my calculations should of went up ...

Ldn 00:04 GMT January 3, 2005 Reply   
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