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Forex Forum Archive for 01/04/2005

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Syd 23:58 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Valladolid DM Hi, justo deseó decir cuánto amé su ciudad, yo utilizó conducir con el año de España mismo en la manera a la buena suerte de Algarve

Bruxville Jim 23:56 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Stay away from them, Valladolid!
censored guess you meant G*C*censored.
Jay, please delete this post as soon as Valladolid reads it.
Happy New Year everyone.

Valladolid DM 23:53 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Alguien me puede decir si esto de censored financial es una empresa seria o un timo?????? que alguien me conteste por favor

Syd 23:52 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY supported by bids from Japan importers seeking USD on this regular settlement day, speculators trying to cover USD shorts vs JPY to cut losses after pair's sharp rebound in NY, Japan trust bank trader

brisbane sunstate 23:45 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Valladolid DM 23:41
usted tiene que escribir el nombre con el espacio como este s-a-x-o
para no haber censurado

Valladolid DM 23:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
censored is a real company or not?????

GER ad 23:38 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Sorry Matha,

Was a little longer 12 days not 10...

Tokyo Matha 18:19 GMT December 23, 2004
Eur/Usd, you never come back to 1.33?

GER ad 18:25 GMT December 23, 2004
Tokyo Matha 18:19 GMT
Eur/Usd,
"never" will be less than 10 days IMHO

----------
EUR/CHF short stopped

oslo oskar 23:30 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
sprechen sie English bitte

Ldn 23:30 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
No stability, no growth, no pact. It is time to confront the Euro disaster zone
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1426263,00.html

Valladolid DM 23:24 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Alguien me puede decir si esto de censored financial es una empresa seria o un timo?????? que alguien me conteste por favor

Sydney 23:23 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Negative Factors Lining Up To Weigh On AUD

austin edgy 23:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
maybe down. that would work well with my MM

austin edgy 23:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
otherwise- your guess is a good as mine

austin edgy 23:10 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
the chf 4 hr has bull crown developed that has it's D extension up to 1.1750- if it goes

NJ RT 23:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
usd/chf hit a big resistance level @1.1685 ... what's next?

Spr Noods 22:47 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
some great reporting by IFR
keep up the good work!
only IFR and MarketNews worth looking at these days

on the GVI great call on Yen by forumist LG
good start to the year to all

Happy New Year AB
my HK property buy worked out great last year

Syd 22:24 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD appears vulnerable and a shift to the downside toward critical support levels can't be ruled out .Momentum suggests move on major levels around 0.7500/30 looming. Backdrop of weaker base metal prices and FOMC's highlight of inflation concerns greasing AUD/USD's retreat.
NAB

lax-lgb SNP 22:11 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
patience finally pays ! ;-)

lax-lgb SNP 18:39 GMT December 30, 2004
$/¥ ... $/chf look supported and aud/$ has also tried all week to get past 0.78 while £/$ doesnt look well-supported either

p.s. i really appreciate all the experts and their views about the overall economic USD picture even if i never understand how to use any part of it in my trading plan
however what i enjoy is the way some ppl try to pick an intra-day bottom or top ... the premature compulsion to average out a loser is just what the mkt punishes time after time

beirut jb 22:08 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
ok guys have to go

c u 2morrow

take care

beirut jb 22:07 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
dc green is green , so enjoy it

other oppurtunities will come...

dc fxq 22:04 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
beirut jb 21:48 GMT

actually I made money on the two trades, just not as much as I might have. The lower entry was 10252 long and closed on a trailing stop at 10288 last Friday.

Just being too careful once I had my +ve numbers showing.

jkt-aye 21:56 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FXQ and RT ... me too, LOL.

just eating my shoes when see it flying. GT

NYCNYCNYC 21:53 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Dublin FWIW
Fed raising rates and stks are not at all time highs, as in the bubble highs, but the SnP is still triple Vs 10 years ago.

NJ RT 21:52 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
dc fxq 21:36 GMT January 4, 2005
Got the same EXACTLY situation on the same pair @ the same price ... trailing stop

beirut jb 21:48 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
sorry to hear that dc,

it took me 4 years to be convinced that THE Solution

Is Money Management, coz for many reasons u will have bad trades and u will miss good ones so if u master MM u can make it and success,

the trap is we all try to improve our method , RUBISH

why ? u can not have 100% method so even if u rich 99%

profitable system ( wich is impossible offcorse) still this 1%

could u put out of this game if no MM

IMHO concentrate on MM and master it and we will laugh on

our must stupidity and on the must madness of the market and on the internet cut off on critical moment and on broker's pb and.......etc.... etc...

wise speech from a guy almost sleeping isnt it??

dc fxq 21:36 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
beirut jb 21:23 GM

I feel your pain, as former Prez Clinton used to say.

I wmet long USDJPY last week at 103.23, added on the way down and this morning got stopped out using a trailing stop after it went profitable ... at 10347, just beforethe last surge higher though 10400!

oh well, there will be other days.

Syd 21:29 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
paramus jf tricky play but if you get it right rewarding.

Syd 21:28 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
VIX index rises four day in a row is concerning some analyst Bloomberg Live .. McMillan Analysis

beirut jb 21:27 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
sorry dc , for error typing dxc I almost sleep

beirut jb 21:23 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Hi dxc,

missed u and all good friends tooooooo,

well i have been busy with other stuff, I plan to be more actif next month,

I was waiting for yesterday euro short signal on daily basis
for a month then I missed it ....lol

well it's a tough game : discipline + timing + pshyco +...
a lot of thing to master and especialy our own ego

GL GT

paramus jf 21:22 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
syd - u may as well leave the aud alone for a while

Syd 21:20 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Major support on Aud at 7450, would be expected to hold

Livingston nh 21:06 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Flip - equity averages (index) are lower but majority of individual stox are higher than year 2000 - Fed seems pretty happy with the economy

Dublin Flip 21:03 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
nh in 94 and 99 greenspan had a stockmarket roaring into all time highs. This time he raising and for the first time in generations the stock markets are still lower than they were the last time he was in rate hike part of the cycle. (five years on and still significantly -ve). The main concern is the economy (of which asset markets are a hige part) not just reactng to the inflation rate.

ICT ML 20:59 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Livingston nh 20:42 GMT January 4, 2005
"- G'span has usually moved funds to 3% above inflation rate - a little slower this time but '94 and '99 he did it in 12 mos"

ahh yes, the good old days...........pretty much killed the thriving building/develpoment business locally with those moves. At least this time everyone know its coming.

Syd 20:56 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
GC Martin, great call on the Aud yesterday

Sydney 20:55 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
CTA"s Continue To Bail Out of Kiwi from IFR

London. 20:50 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Livingston nh yes I think you are right, market hasnt come to grips with it yet , personally see a lower euro for around two months at least

Livingston nh 20:42 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
London - Fed Funds rate is likely to be 3.5% by May (4% by July?) - G'span has usually moved funds to 3% above inflation rate - a little slower this time but '94 and '99 he did it in 12 mos

dc fxq 20:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
beirut jb 20:29 GMT

long time since I've seen you post! Hello again.

paramus nj 20:40 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
dont trade end of last years factors right now - this is different market - buy and hold wont be so effective will need to be more active in adjustment

paramus jf 20:38 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
ok bak to ff for 05 - see who can survive another year

London. 20:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Eurodollar futures sell off factors in close to a 100% chance that Fed policymakers will increase interest rates by 25 bp at the Feb. 2 and Mar. 22 FOMC meetings. Odds are close to 90% that the panel will raise rates again by 25 bp to 3% at either the May 3 or June 30 meetings
reuters.

perrie como 20:33 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Do not look to much at closings as most of those Technical Analysis books sold during the last decade suggesting...

Nowadays is motsly p-folio arrangements.

Big Traders gone

perrie como 20:31 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
btw for wheater futures
there are forecasts for an extremely dry summer

bibi now

beirut jb 20:29 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
well as i said earlier we r now in short mode and i


stoped my counter trend intraday long euro bought at 13301,

CT trade is not worthy, it gave me max 20 pip, far away from my 13347 target

trade with the trend is always beter and trend now is short daily basis

now tooooooooooo late to short,

too risky to long
so good night and good luck, will sell the strengh 2morrow

GL GT

perrie como 20:29 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
strange the huge 6 pct already deficit on gdp was almost forgotten...we will see what those market wizards have in store for 2005 ...yet soon as we are just starting...

the only thing that might help fundamentally [email protected]@
the USD is a heavy fiscal policie, but Bush seems against It.

other things might be global casualties
also huge part of growing debt is defence and seems It will take long time to move away troops from some tens of countries around the world.

hard to tell
maybe greenspan might call It : Irrational governance?

g/l

perrie como 20:23 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
BBK david
just numbers

perrie como 20:22 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
SYD that german but generally speaking whole euro bunch unemplyment helps holding inflation low

this is the only good news from the old continent

bkk david 20:21 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
eurusd 1.3060 target (sorry for past typed wrong)

bkk david 20:20 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
eurusd see 1.3260

bkk david 20:16 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez and any one
eurusd see 1.2070 sure tomorrow or thursday
gbpusd see 1.8635 sure tomorrow or thursday

London. 20:14 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Fed Minutes Say Rate Too Low to Keep Inflation Stable LINK Some members were concerned about potential signs of ``excessive risk-taking'' amid low rates, citing credit spreads and increasing numbers of mergers and initial public offerings the minutes said. A weaker dollar, higher energy prices, diminishing competition in some industries and a possible slowdown in worker output per hour were among the forces that may drive prices higher, the minutes said.

london ross 20:10 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
finally is/ eur 1.27..

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 20:07 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
also usd/cad got 1.2263 as top. see my archieve.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 20:04 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
hello...
finally eur got 3255 and gbp got 8775. have a nice for my passengers !!! :-)

Syd 19:58 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
The market now digests the FOMC minutes and the implication that by mentioning the weak dollar as a potential inflation driver, the Fed has effectively put an end to any cheerleading the dollar lower that it was perceived to be doing last year.
Dow J.

Syd 19:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Germany nears 1990 jobless level LINKGerman unemployment rose for the 11th consecutive month in December - making the year's average jobless total the highest since reunification.

dc CB 19:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
one more tidbit:

"Some participants believed that the prolonged period of policy accommodation had generated a significant degree of liquidity that might be contributing to signs of potentially excessive risk-taking in financial markets evidenced by quite narrow credit spreads, a pickup in initial public offerings, an upturn in mergers and acquisition activity, and anecdotal reports that speculative demands were becoming apparent in the markets for single-family homes and condominiums."

dc fxq 19:43 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
R4 seems unatainable at 10493 (by 1500 ET)

Sydney 19:40 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
IFR say that Hawkish Minutes, "Measured Pace" May Be Thing of Past

dc fxq 19:40 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
next resistance at 10461

dc fxq 19:39 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
we've hit my projected high (10445) for the
12-15 ET time frame and taken it out, missed the proje. low by 5 pips at 10416.

Tallinn viies 19:39 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
at 1,3278 bought last part of my strategic euro long position.
stop at 1,3264 right now.
will buy later agin if needed. as long as 1,31380 contains it

Ldn 19:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   

USD pushes to new highs against most currencies. This is beginning to look like a full-scale turn around to a regime of USD strength even if it’s short term overdone.

German unemployment figures add to EuroZone’s woes and may even rekindle talk of recession in Europe and the need for the ECB to cut rates
s.a.x.o

dc fxq 19:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
I hope the "pizo..floor..base" isn't all "mojado". :)

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:32 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
2nd bounce bigger than first..this is REALLY strange...like a mirror image of reality.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:21 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
now this IS a good test to see if the dollar bulls are getting tired..juicy news from gringoland twice in a row..I'd say it's getting time to pull out the bears. Baring tonight's frolics whatever stands at mid afternoon tomorrow to me is pizo..floor..base.

dc CB 19:19 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
" Even with this action, the current level of the real funds rate target remained below the level it most likely would need to reach to keep inflation stable and output at its potential. With the economic expansion more firmly entrenched, cost and price pressures were likely to become a clearer intermediate-term risk to sustained good economic performance absent further reduction of accommodation."

from FMOC minutes

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:13 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
There you go dollar bears, another juicy morsel for you today..buy dem bucks boys!

perrie como 19:11 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
seemingly this inflation is going global this year -
quantum distributed

regards
perrie

Atlanta-South 19:07 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
I too saw 3305, but not for long. bye bye

Ldn 19:07 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
US FED: 12/14 FOMC Minutes- More Hikes Needed to Stem Inflation

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:06 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FED statemet said interest rate increases would continue

perrie como 19:01 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Welcome into 2005

PS
How was this first taste of chaos :)

Budapest Daniel 18:57 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
was it a commercial that it must be deleted??

Global-View 18:54 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Amman - Suggest looking in the Archives or go to the Help Forum and ask your question.

Amman wfakhoury 18:53 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Hi
Anyone can tell me about pivot point

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
I would not trade this chart for a million bucks right now...not even raiding.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:44 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
the one that rhymes with . I've seen 3306 once, mostly 3307..NOT saying nor inferring anything other than that. All plats are not alike..they vary a pip or three.

Philadelphia Caba 18:42 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:40 GMT January 4, 2005

what platform do you use?

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:40 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
3305...sheesh, my platform hasn't seen that in over half an hour..lucky man.

Philadelphia Caba 18:36 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Let's try some long eurusd @ 1.3305..

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:47 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
I tend to be long termish trader although raiding is a fun sport (and profitable). If you had two accounts or an account which allowed you to place opposing moves on the same c'ncy (or you could place counter moves on a c'ncy using another stable cross such as swissy) then I would say long E/$ for a week possie..right about here, but long with a small initial bet so if it goes south on you you won't be margin called or it won't use up a lot of your cap..stacking as you go when the move begins to mature for a week long possie to 1.38-9 tops. Each major peak we've seen since 2002 (there've been 5) has involved that up down period of cycles involving 500 pips..often 4-5 cycles of them..great for possition traders like me. Then the peak runs out of beans and slopes down to permit the next one to form..the controversial (in this case) 1.43 peak proposed by my model in March-April which should be the last peak before a 2.5 year trend change from the mother trend in 2002-present. We have had around 2 peaks per year since Jan of 2002 like clockwork.

So in respect to a long term trade for 500 pips, it therefore isn't important that you get in on the exact bottom floor when you're talking back to December peaks which we will see after this dollar bull run is finished. As in FINISHED. For that position trade place a small (small) bet now..stacking but not increasing size of bets as it moves up. Don't run out of beans.

Philadelphia Caba 17:44 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:35 GMT January 4, 2005

Thanks GEP, I'm short from 1.1645, so little bit early..

Dallas GEP 17:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Going to airport...will be back but YES Caba I have shorted usd/chf TWICE already looking for 1.1580 target

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 17:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
eur/usd still focuse on sell about 3255. will meet sell level at 3317. sell there with stp 3325 for tgt 3255 and then cut reverse when touch 3255

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:29 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
As much as we all would love to see E/$ long right now, the 1 hour chart hasn't done anything more than repeat itself from 0900 or 1200 hrs GMT..take your pick. Until I see a DEFINITE up turn I wouldn't advise longing E/$. If it breaks 1.3325 or 30 then I'd place a conservative bet nthen as the move progresses, stack them in conservatively in these shark infested waters. Remember, this is false start city. Save the higher risk plays for later this month or after.

Jkt Rick 17:27 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Eur/usd, short term players, 1.33 1.325xx 1.315xx could be a bottom for 1.37
medium term players hope you are all on holidays with your shorts.

Philadelphia Caba 17:19 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:13 GMT January 4, 2005

GEP, are you shorting usdchf ?

Dallas GEP 17:13 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
In terms of simple retracements....usd/chf could easily retrace back short 80-100 pips from that triple top area FWIW.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:07 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
My old proposed E/$ long entry point is no longer valid. It's obviously to be moved down. As to where I have no earthly idea. My crystal ball takes sheckles and I only have centavos. When I enter I'll tell you and it will not be within the next half hour unless/until a stable chart with a definite up trend presents itself as this topography scares the hades out of me. Again, I am not worried about grabbing that rock bottom price in this wild market. I still see a lot of room for the USD to gain through/to tomorrow although that is no prediction it will.

London. 17:00 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Euro support at 1.326, break will opens further falls to 1.302, ( 38.2% retracement )

Ldn 16:54 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba expired then thanks

Philadelphia Caba 16:54 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: A large 1.3350 plain-vanilla option rolls off at today"s NY cut (15:00GMT), alongside the previously mentioned 1.3375 strike.

Ldn 16:53 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Speculation of a rate cut in UK in the Spring, cant see it if there is an election would be bias the government

Philadelphia Caba 16:52 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD 1.3375 Expiry Today] London, January 4: There is a
1.3375 plain-vanilla option rolling off at today"s NY cut (15:00GMT), alongside
a fair size 1.3640 strike.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:52 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 16:47 GMT January 4, 2005
climax selling gbp at 8775 or 8747

London Iain 16:51 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Just been forwarded this by a colleague.

Maybe some of you (with time on your hands) may wish to put their money where their mouths are??!

www.tradergames.com

Ldn 16:48 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD Large 1.3350 Expiry Today anyone know the time of that ?

Los Angeles ss 16:47 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Raden -- where do you see the selling climax on GBP, good entry point for rebound?

Dallas GEP 16:47 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Note: In terms of daily movements...look at the total range a pair has moved for the day and recognize that generally you are NOT going to get more than 200-250 pips out of any pair. So once that is acheived the likelyhood of at least some retracement INCREASES so the possibility of continuations once the 200-250 pip range is acheived is much LESS.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:45 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
my strong recomend for eur/usd.
1.3255 is selling climax. if you want to catch this, still a chance for sell now at 3284 and cut reverse when touch 3255.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:44 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
I might add too..WAY too much emphasis is been put on Greenspan/Fed. A heavier weight is the U.S. Treasury yet we never hear diddly squat about that. Fed is second to Treasury.

kfar saba zp 16:43 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bc or anyone else interested, please see my question posted on financial and political side regarding CLS. thks.

Dallas GEP 16:39 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
USD/CHF is at a triple top on the 4 hour chart FWIW (1.1684 area)

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:39 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bc, good to repost that! Folks, often when I ask a question or answer one it's not JUST for or to one person..it's to anyone who wants to read it. bc and the other pros here..same-same..he posts to one but he posts to all. We ALL are so lucky as to have him and the other pros here..let's have a nice clean courteous forum this year.

Roumeli anka 16:38 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Good evening...This is the start of a largest move. In my opinion, as expressed here before hollydays there is a medium term change in trend. However the first leg of this correction should start to loose momentum tommorow.

London. 16:38 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Bank of France head warns on dollar impact
http://bworld.com.ph/current/B&F/b&fstory9.html

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:36 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
eur/usd broke 3284..thats mean will go to bottom target 3255.. buy again there.
please fight for waiting usd/chf get 1725 and gbp get 8775 for buy.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:36 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
To make clear..USD investors took the show the last basket of sessions as we know..why? A combination of things..but now it's small and medium traders who are still saying, "good US data means better USD investment hedges". Until they stop thinking this USD will gain. This is pure market, no manipulation in my op..remember, if you don't see that weekly candle tail, assume USD is still bullish. January is an important month for econ news..so February we'll see the tabulations. If Jan factory orders is good then it's smooth sailing for USD theoretically. But USA wants a cheap USD for a while longer anyway so US Treas may just create fiat bucks to MAKE their show happen regardless of anything anyone else says or does.

London Alex 16:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Thanks quito

Syd 16:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   

CRB 278.58 -1.73
USD$ 82.26 +0.96

Part of recent pst from shanghai Bc.

shanghai bc 03:02 GMT January 3, 2005

VALDEZ --Good morning..This year,I am a short-term Dollar bear,a medium-term Dollar bull and a long-term Dollar bear ..By that what I mean is,we may see further Dollar lows in coming weeks on Euro and Yen front but for the next two to four months we may have a decent Dollar bounce which may take Dollar up to 85-87 at least,purely a technical medium-term bounce of Dollar..

London Tokky 16:31 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Thanks for the advice, quito_ecuador_valdez.

prague viktor 16:30 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez..amigo u were euro short from the 1,36++so why did u closed it its enough to remove the stop loss and let the profit run...Im sorry for the profit u missed it..hopfully u will make better the next time..G/L

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:28 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Tokky//
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:20 GMT January 4, 2005
Don't shoot til you see the whites of their eyes. Anything dealing with USD at this point is volitile as nitroglycerine on a hot summer's day. Even tho I do think we're dollar peaking against crosses I'm not 100% sure we REALLY ARE at this weekly candle's bottom. (yes I always have one weekly candle chart running) ..Candle is still a strong dollar bull until I see that tail.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:25 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
When I called this mkt suicidal yesterday I wan't kidding. Stop losses are the meal of the day for the mkt.. It is behaving totally on its own, any seasoned trader would say this. I know one very experienced trader who only got a few pips out of all of last night's shorting..no way to tell the actual direction. Raiding in these waters is not to be done without a good safety rope, survival gear and helmet and a 10th life...

London Tokky 16:23 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez,

What do you think about buying Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd NOW? Thanks as usual.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:20 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Alex//
No, am flat now. I will have to see in this crazy mkt 1.3325 taken out before I am convinced of a long move..this bottom bouncing stuff can go on for some time or it can suddenly turn to a long..NO WAY to predict when. One way or the other I've got to see 1.3325. Case in point.look!

London Alex 16:17 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez - 1.3325 taken out, does this mean you have gone long? Would appreciate your commonsense opinion on this, many thanks

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:11 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
usd/chf still focuse on 1725 -1749 for sell.
still posible to go there.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:10 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Point to new traders...and it wasn't GEP's fault he stopped out re new chart characteristics. Point to make to newer traders..the chart seldom has a configuration like this..it's one bounce, maybe two for a few pips more profit, then a long. As to why it's like this is simply because not everyone exited their short positions relative to mkt volume and liquidity. "Relative" is the keyword..few if any big players here so mkt takes on the form of mostly smaller players..like us and some minor funds etc.. Likely some wise traders exited half or 2/3 of their possies leaving room for more downward flow of E/$ eyeing the very good US data. Point made is until Jan 15 expect abnormal chart characteristics. Am longing only if this looks stable AND GOING UP..otherwise flat. I don't care if I enter rock bottom, I'd rather enter safe than sorry. Lack of waiting has been my error base lately. I have missed something like $25k-30k in profits which I could have had by not waiting enough (sometimes seconds or minutes more) the last 8 days. Still am flat..waiting for 1.3325 to be taken out before I long. This chart is suicidal.

beirut jb 16:10 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bought euro at 13301, intraday play

will sell the strengh

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:09 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gbp/usd still not good for buy now after broken 8843 because if we look eur/gbp chart there is level 7119 still not yet be finished. maybe eur/usd up from 3284 adn gbp/usd still down to 8775 before up together.

San Diego bobl 15:59 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
taking some eur/jpy here long;138/7800'

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:54 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
ok Dallas.. np, still many chance.
you are a man.
buy gbp at 8843 stp 8835 for tgt 8944.

Dallas GEP 15:51 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
well got stopped on the usd/cad short at -20

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:50 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Dallas... have cut switched?

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:49 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Sonofmekel Jakarta 15:36 GMT January 4, 2005
just my lucky ;-)
met kenal juga.(friendship statement).

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:48 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT January 4, 2005
better buy usd/cad for tgt 2265 and cut reverse there for short term trade.
buy with stp 1.2200.
sell at 2265 with stop 2275
buy at 2275 for tgt 2332
sell at 2332 for tgt 2265 with stp 2345(bid).
GL/GT
I hope we meet exact number.
lets see..

Halifax CB 15:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Just closed eurusd shorts, a slow 150 pip retrace wouldn't surprise me at the moment.....Opened usdjpy short, will re-eval this position around 104.2 (hope not) or 103.5. I think the markets are still too choppy for big follow throughs....

San Diego bobl 15:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
so far, usd/cad reluctant to give up gains; i am reloading on the buy side again. I will take adders off on any spike down, but hold core with very good cushion. Now's it' s just working the position.

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Shorted usd/chf at market...20 pip stp

Dallas GEP 15:37 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Shorted usd/cad at market

Sonofmekel Jakarta 15:36 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
solo Raden Mas // great call you did on eur and cable.
Salam kenal ;)

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 15:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Buy-buy cheap Jewish currency... IMHO

San Diego bobl 15:31 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
taking a nice hunk out of usd/cad now; suspect can reload lower; very nice

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:30 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
My erros in cancelling my short and not gathering the move of the day: kick my butt.
1. I didn't "see" the fact that many traders were waiting for US data..hence the slim range for 1 hour or so before the data.
2. I saw the chart was in short mode but feared a backlash to long if positive data wasn't reacted to immediately. So I exited my super juicy possie with that fear.

Moral: until the mkt returns to normal, I will WAIT before exiting my possie. This delay is good for us to put in possies instead of having to speculate in a rush. Finally the mkt is back to obeying fundamentals.

Tallinn viies 15:29 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bc said earlier today that first interbank boyz want to take out 1,3350 strike and 1,3300 strike then market is ready to move higher.
both of them have been taken out now. so, no need to press lower anymore...
first serious resistance now at 1,3380/85 then down pressure should ease...

beirut jb 15:24 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
hi traders,

Euro : on daily basis euro went short yesterday and likely to post a lower close today

euro strong: should make max one more lower close and should close above 13297 on friday

euro weak : should close under 13297 on friday and we should c more drop to 130 and if broken to 12715 test

IMHO euro show weakness when it break 13385 and it didint bounce as usual from it, 133 area could be a good buy for intraday scalpers but daily is now cleary short untill further order

GL GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:24 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
It has been pointed out to me on Yahoo chat that lately 10-15 minutes is the waiting time for US positive data to "sink in". I had a good short possie, cancelled it fearing an opposite reaction would stop me out. STUPID ME. Posting so others take from this. Formerly when the banks, CBs and funds were playing it was knee jerk city..now with them on vacation it's much slower. Interesting point.

Tallinn viies 15:20 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
for the last long position I left stop to 1,3264

prague viktor 15:20 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:06 GMT ..amigo..u asking and the mkt is giving what u want. keep asking...G/T

Philadelphia Caba 15:20 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 15:18 GMT

Thanks.. r'u already in long?

Tallinn viies 15:18 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 14:58 GMT - last month low is a level where I give up. until that level Im ready to play around with long positions...

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:18 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
finally...

Boulder DAT 15:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Fairly decent number for factory orders. With no real big knee-jerk reaction, nor any follow-through on the dollar buying, this could be the end of today's selling in euro and cable.

San Diego bobl 15:11 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
i still like and am adding to usd/cad...scalped some only to add more; usd/jpy may work it's way up. i have small position here...would like to build it with more follow through

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:06 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Well, c'mon dollar buyers! Whatcha waiting for..sheesh, what do you want, blood?

Philadelphia Caba 15:04 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
US ECON: Fact Orders Rose 1.2% in Nov; Non-Def Cap Goods +0.8%]

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
factory orders..expected .8% up, it's USD pos at 1.2% up according to GEP..chart didn't freeking budge.

Philadelphia Caba 14:58 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies & HK Kevin

Guys, may I ask you on your s/l for eurusd long? Thanks.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:58 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
US financial NEWS out in a couple minutes..what's it gonna do?

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:57 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
CB. I respectfully join you in your "dunno" seat for short term...way way too iffy 4 me to short term soothsay. LOL The only trading I'm doing now is very short raids...not even any bank trading longer term which is my usual mode as you knw.

Philadelphia Caba 14:54 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Itar-Tass, the Russian news agency reports that Al-Zarqawi, the al-Qaeda
leader in Iraq has been arrested, according to Kurdish sources. Similar reports
made the rounds yesterday, but they have not been confirmed by the US of the
Iraqi interim government. Given elections are less than a month away, chances
are they would want to trumpet any capture. EUR/USD trades quietly at 1.3367
with dealers very skeptical of the report.

Tallinn viies 14:54 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Im still on the euro bulls camp...
as 1,3345/50 was 61,8% retracement level. this is perfect entry I guess :)
fingers crossed and cheers

ny js 14:52 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Be careful on the Drudge report there is a news flash that
Al Zaharie the #1 terrorist has been captured in Iraq.

Halifax CB 14:48 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Thx Valdez. I don't have a clue where eurusd going in the near future, but even the st trend seems pretty flat to down, and I'm happy with that.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
3380 for stop is bid number.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:33 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gbp/usd
sell now (8938) with stp 8980(ask)..and cut reverse at 8774.thats not daytrade
eur/usd
sell now (3360) with stop 3380 for tgt 3285 and cut reverse there.

Halifax CB 14:33 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Re USDJPY - There seems to be very little noise these days from the MoF, which to me rather implies they are not too disconcerted by the current levels and that the current rate of strengthening of the Yen against the $ is more-or-less acceptable. So for now, I'm just selling off spikes up in the USDJPY

San Diego bobl 14:31 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
may size building into the 1.2150 level ofusd/cad; held trade >1.2150 would get me more involved and have several target add windowws up. like to have size here, becausse market can show it's hand without much trazel, therefere risk is controlled

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:28 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Kevin..nice little long thus far...do U think it'll long more? Looks like it wants to short to me.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:27 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:08 GMT January 4, 2005
like in decision of trade and look the chart. "who am I?" thats question is good variable.

Haifa ac 14:26 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 13:02 GMT // A good call girl is around 300 NIS an hour. Divide by 5 to get dollars.
A Hamburger is a little over one dollar (there is a war now)
A Mazda is 140000 NIS.
Your pick!

HK Kevin 14:24 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
valdez 14:17 GMT, my order.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:21 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Last post directed to Halifax CB 14:15 GMT January 4, 2005

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:20 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
As in bc's case, I think you and I are using the same longterm model. I should have been specific in my post..I meant a short term E/$ day fall. Like to 1.3310ish.

Helsinki iw 14:18 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Cheers, viies.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:17 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:11 GMT January 4, 2005
was that YOUR order or another order from big player? If so, who, if you have the info. TKS..GT

Halifax CB 14:15 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:08 GMT January 4, 2005
"Chart pattern indicitive of E/$ fall soon..what think?"
My POV it's been underway since the first close down week in mid-December. Or at least preparing for it; the corrections take one to two months to gather steam. It's going to be ragged for the next few months, but I would expect it to drift roughly down to the 1.27 level at least. The longer term trend is up, but even that is dubious, note that the support curve (on a weekly basis) is slowly flattening out. GL/GT...

Tallinn viies 14:14 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Helsinki iw 14:07 GMT - so called market was Asian Central bank being told

HK Kevin 14:11 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Long EUR/USD order filled at 1.3350

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:08 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Solo Raden Mas// We are fortunate in our lives to have never had a world wide natural disaster. This tsunami, frightful as it was/is is nothing compared to what has happened in the ancient past. Actually, we are all quite lucky. You're correct..who are we? We are miniscule and can not stop natural events. But, we should address such things as "man made" catastrophe such as ice cap melting. It only takes a meter or two of extra ocean water and good bye Nelson NZ, The Netherlands, Florida (mean elev 2.2 m), Ecuador's coastal plains.

Chart pattern indicitive of E/$ fall soon..what think?

Is anyone having success with fxtrek's valued charts? Last 2 days..won't load...java error.

Helsinki iw 14:07 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Being told that selling from model based names is well absorbed by the market. Doubt that the 13325/35 support will crack on this run. fwiw

Boulder DAT 14:07 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Although this current rally in the dollar is probably a very short lived run, I am reluctant to put on any new positions yet. I don't think we have seen the lows in euro and cable yet today. I think it's going to break a little lower today from here. But, in the long-term, I doubt there is any real strength to the current move.

San Diego bobl 14:03 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Sold some more gbp/;usd1.8931...

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 13:56 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:34 GMT January 4, 2005
thank you my friend.
thats really make them shock and stress.
but GOD give us some messages from this to ask eachselves "who am I ?"

Sonofmekel Jakarta 13:45 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Yes I agree with wellington, that eur is in a correction mode, not a trend-changing mode. But the support violation at 3366 signs the correction is not finished, perhaps it will be until 3280 ? And I'm new to this forum and to trading too

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
tks Wellington..you may be new to the forum but you obviously are NOT new to principles of FX. GT I might also add, as an indicator for long term direction of USD I look at past history of USD/CHF. And were it not for this darned disruption of the FX environment with the introduction of the infectious Euro the cycling would have been even more predictable. Prob is, how would the world albeit Europe today even de-euroize itself once infected? It probably could not without one big mess erupting especially if it happened all at once due to a Euro crash..That's what Frankfurt is betting on..either submit to the paraste or die. Afterall, the Euro is percentage wise almost without base..largely fiat. Why doesn't ECB publish their gold reserves? humm. The more countries who euroize, the more momentum it gains..and so on. The only thing which could save us all from the Euro infection is the total elimination of the EZ by natural disaster in the next 12 months and that's not likely and the rest of the world would go down with it too. Not a bad idea actually for the Americas and Asia to unite yet more closely..as they already are. Remember, with a single currency, there would be no forex.

wellington am 13:18 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold's approaching a key support level at 425. If this holds, then I'd be saying larger trend remains in tact, sell more dollars and be thankful for the correction. The euro slide seems to more to do with it's overbought state against its crosses - checkout EYR/JPY and EUR/AUD. That's my 5 cents, but I'm a relative amatuer on this forum.

bkk david 13:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac 12:55 GMT January 4, 2005
How much does it cost of living at haifa ?
I will visit there about 1 month to meet my professor, he is there.

NJ RT 13:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Good morning gents ... Martin, well worth the wait for usd/jpy. You're THE MAN. Thank you.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
backto tradin'..GEPster, what trades do you have active monseur señor sir?

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:59 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac 12:55 GMT January 4, 2005
...well then, enjoy yourself. GT

bkk david 12:56 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast

I agree with you. By short term statistical analysis I think eurusd should back to 1.3410-1.3440 first and then down again to 1.3350-1.3280.

Haifa ac 12:55 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:26 GMT // erraticism,big vibrations. eroticism.... Definitely GOOD stuff!

Livingston nh 12:55 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
This afternoon's release of FOMC Minutes from December is the first release of such minutes prior to next Fed meeting - the new policy provides market with a hint of Fed concerns and allows the Beige Book comments before the next meeting to be interpreted accordingly -- may reduce the need for "tea leaf analysts"

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:53 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Bcn FXstreet.com 12:43 GMT January 4, 2005// Excellent. There's the model folks..listen to the man.

gold coast martin 12:49 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 12:28 GMT January 4, 2005

EU LGs stop massacre scenatio post christmas is so true..especially with increasing liquidity......to play it safe waitfor the 13350 barrier to be breached convincingly to say about 13307 and that may give you a signal thatthe market for this week will be one to short euros...it does not look like this will be achieved tonite ..so best to wait until the end of the aud session and beginning of euro session tomorrow.....imho...

fwiw....if you refer to my previous post of 3 hours ago on the kiwi..the resistance of 7087 has been breached ..so a short in the 7070-80 area should be good for a target of 6970(as posted)......g/l

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:49 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
I will affirm one thing. If the normal cycle for the USD as compared to Swssy (which is most of my model) is disrupted by excessive USD devaluation (that is, more than 400 pips lower from December's lows) and/or excessive and continued Euro evaluation, all currencies will be adversely affected in terms of stability. To jerk the rug out from under Asian CBs feet (and other countries' CBs as well) by devaluating the very thing they put "stock" in (USD safehouse) would be a blatant self centered move irregardless of respect of other nations' currencies. Either those countries would be forced to dump USD paper (further weakening USD) or put up with devalued base (which would also devalue their c'ncys). This is where the warning for worldwide catrophy and disruption comes from and rightly so.

I would assume the world would pressure the USA SO MUCH at 1.42-1.43 E/$ that the USA would have to act with responsibility and obey the demands of it's neighbors and revaluate the USD (per the normal cycle). BUT...the very word "censored/u/me" makes sometimes an asss of u & me GT.

HK [email protected] 12:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FWIW
Hope I do not repeat.

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=1619544&PageNum=0

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi reportedly arrested in Iraq

04.01.2005, 07.18


DUBAI, January 4 (Itar-Tass) - Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi, whom the US occupation authorities declared to be the "target number one" in Iraq, has been arrested in the city of Baakuba, the Emirate newspaper al-Bayane reported on Tuesday referring to Kurdish sources. Al-Zarqawi, leader of the terrorist group Al-Tawhid Wa'al-Jihad, was recently appointed the director of the Al-Qaeda organisation in Iraq.

The newspaper's correspondent in Baghdad points out that a report on the seizure of the terrorist, on whom the US put a bounty of 10 million dollars, was also reported by Iraqi Kurdistan radio, which at one time had been the first to announce the arrest of Saddam Hussein.

There have been no official reports about the arrest of the terrorist. Al-Zarqawi, 38, a Jordanian, whose real name is Ahmad al-Khalayleh, aims to turn Iraq into a "new Afghanistan". According to Arab press data, Al-Tawhid Wa'al-Jihad group has divided Iraq into several emirates. The group's independent subdivisions at a strength of 50 to 500 militants operate in the cities of Al-Falluja, Al-Qaim, Diala, and Samarra.


Bcn FXstreet.com 12:43 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Forex Morning Meeting

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. No relevant economic events happened overnight. Crude Oil rose slightly yesterday, but it is still capped below the $43-46 barrier, respecting its current downward trendline from $55 highs. In the current environment, where a move in oil prices shake every financial market (for good or bad), it is interesting to keep an eye to its price action.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3400 level. If confirmed, this will be Euro’s third successive day of losses against the greenback. Not surprisingly, it has ost a great deal of its previous upward momentum, and further losses are to come would the pair trade technically. If we draw a trendline from the end of january 2002, and connect that point with the low of september 3, 2003, we get the current (and big) upward trendline that has been driving the pair to its current levels. If we draw a parallel to that trendline using the highs of july, 2002, we then have the 2 ½-year upward channel. One can see that, despite sometimes broken (thus providing some price aberration), the channel has been working well to determine stopping points for the rising of the Euro against the USD. Having said that, it can also be seen that the highs of some days ago around 1.3660, almost coincide with the top of the channel once again. Should this work, technically speaking, the pair ought to enter in a corrective move that could drive it to and below the 1.30 level. As yesterday presented, current positioning is to hold shorts, unless new highs are made, and looking for the base of the uptrend channel to take profits.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is negative on the pair (since december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair), while Indicators watch-level 2: is negative too (same date).

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8970 level, accelerating losses as I write. After breaking down the last and current upward trendline, which we can draw from october 6, 2004, the pair is being aggressively sold. If we take the previous point and connect it with september 2003 low, we get what one could consider the previous upward trendline (pound has moved significantly different than Euro, and thus it has created more trendlines to draw, so it is appropiate to determine which ones to follow as guidelines), which currently lays around 1.82/8300, which obviously opens the technical door for a strong move down, that it would follow and confirm the double top around the 1.95 mark, with its neckline at 1.9015. Current positioning is to hold shorts, targeting the length of the double top, negating the view should 1.93 and higher print again.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: holds a negative bias (from dec, 21, 2004) for the pair and Indicators watch-level 2: holds that bias, too (around late december, 2004).

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1540 level. It has a very nice technical aspect, and, if we see it above 1.17, a double base with a neckline around 1.1685 will be in place and its upward momentum could drive the pair up to the currently active (but far) downward trendline, around the 1.22-2300 level. (latest downward trendlines have already been broken). Current positioning is to hold longs and stop them only if a new low, below the current lowest levels around 1.1290, is made. a
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is strong bullish (since december 30, 2004) on the pair, while Indicators watch-level 2: is now bullish (since january, 4, 2005).

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7055 level, unable for the time being to break the 0.71 level. The clear channel that we have from the lows of august, 2004, connected with the lows of december, 2004, give trading clues on what it might happen to the pair. If the pair dips and daily-closes below 0.7030 (re-entering the channel), it could dip to the base of the channel, to 0.6900 approx. Should this channel work, technically speaking, then upside momentum (staying outside the channel’s range), should be very very limited.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is bullish on the pair, though it has lost momentum, while Indicators Wacth-level 2 : is neutral now, after having been bullish for some time.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs). [email protected]

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:40 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FWIW next key support for gbp/usd is around 8840-50 and aud/usd has the key support around 7640-50 IMHO. GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:32 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
I can't answer that, sorry. Yet. Goldcoast would be much more qualified to answer as he knows money flows, I don't and money flows at this time are super important. All I can say is from December's highs expect a true trading range of 500-700 pips up and down constantly for at least the next 10 days, likely 2-3 weeks before a trend change downward on E/$ chart.

bkk david 12:28 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez
gold coast
There is idea to sell eurusd???, where ?
Or wait tomorrow

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:27 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Next key support for eur/usd is around the 3300-10 area and main support around the 3210-30 area. I will start selling if 3200 breaks and closes under that main support. In the meantime the bears a letting out some steam as they have been pushed around for far to long. With intraday indicators unwinding reaching O/S area and daily indicators continuing to unwind from O/B areas we could expect a test of the key support area IMHO. GL GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:26 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
tks bc amigo. Also, by coincidence, the December peak also reinforces this erraticism, reinforcing still the liklihood for 500-600 pip vibrations next few weeks even more. I note after each major peak there is a lot of 500-600 pip vibration be it whenever and January itself is so. I'm trading light if at all in fact, only taking small guaranteed moves until stability rules and have not placed long term plays yet. Someday I would very much like to be honored to meet you, bc. You are one wise and "life educated" individual.

venezia cb 12:21 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
valdez:ok,this is why i posted before.good luck!

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:19 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
venezia cb 12:12 GMT January 4, 2005//
"I will bend like a reed in the wind.",
"Fear is the mindkiller."
Both quotes from the immortal movie, "Dune".

shanghai bc 12:19 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   

VALDEZ --Good evening..As a rule of thumb,the first two weeks of any new year is always full of erratic moves..The real moves will come later starting in the middle of the month..

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:17 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
venezia cb 12:12 GMT January 4, 2005//True, there are many variables which could enter the equation. That's what makes FX interesting. What I am touting here is the propensity of a currency to repeat itself, it's patterns of movement. There is no such thing as a 100% prediction of the future...one must ALWAYS be able to flex with and accomodate the unexpected.

FRA EZ 12:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
usd/chf , 1.1590 is the daily ema 50 and the pair is overbought, nice strike in perspective for long term trade to ...1.1 or so

venezia cb 12:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
valdez,the history doesn't repeat itself every time!

Budapest Daniel 12:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
correct me if i was wrong, but 50 ma seems to me it lays at 1.33 on the daily charts, or what?

Genoa nic 12:09 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
BC, thanks a lot, good trades to you

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:07 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bc..agree 100%. Nuff said.

shanghai bc 12:05 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   

NIC 1:37 -- Good evening..There is a good possibility of Eur/usd testing 50 ma around 1.3200..How Eur/Usd reacts from there could be very important for the next several months..I see the range of 1.40--1.25 in the first half of this year..Good trades in the new year..

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:01 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc 11:50 GMT January 4, 2005
You and I must be using the same model. Vibration of 500-600 pips is in store for the next 3 weeks or so if history repeats for the last 4 big peaks from 3 years back. This offers excellent opportunity. Either the E/$ chart will do one of two things:
1. Follow my model: vibrate 500-600 pips for next 3 weeks, then decline 2-3 months then incline to 1.40 or somewhat beyond, repeating the 2004 October-December peak. After which decline (trend change) for 2.5-3 years with continued USD revaluation.
2. Not follow my model and decline for 2.5-3 years as of now.
The later (2) is in my op very improbable.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:54 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
eur lg// True. I can't imagine how many people could be so stupid all at once. And the stop masacre (good wording on your part!) may not be over..it isn't impossible for 1.32 or 1.31 to occur. 600+ point dipsy doodles (up-downs) are part of EUR/USD history the last 2-3 years once a peak is reached. 500-600 vibrations occur for several weeks before the downturn...plenty of profit for us, plenty of stop masacre for top-end longers. And betting on higher ground when just about the highest ground has been reached (Dec) is totally unwise..yet they did it.

slv sam 11:53 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
although euro will reach over 1.40 imo during 2005 and many positioned accordingly...but frankly euro/$ at 1.15 is more real!GT

shanghai bc 11:50 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   

GAZA 11:18--Good evening..Eur/Usd is likely to make a decent correction for several months in time under its own weight but that starting timing seems to be still some weeks away to me..Good trades in the new year..

eur lg 11:45 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Mr Valdez, imo the eur buying was a play on past history of the eur having an outperform week the first week of the calendar year and a few guys trying to get a jump on that. This in combination with an absence of any usd buyers perhaps exaggerated the move. I was reading this mng that IMM positioning (whether you consider it important or not is debatable) swung from short to long by about 3.5 bio euros. Thus the demand for all those euros around 1.36. As others have highlighted the danger of positioning so close to year end at such extreme levels these guys close stops were easily massacred yesterday and perhaps more today.

Atlanta-South 11:44 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Trying to bottom feed.

gold coast martin 11:43 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 11:39 GMT January 4, 2005
.....off to the sea, hopefully with a botticellian beauty sounds better to me than spending time waiting for the 4 h move.....lol....g/l

Genoa nic 11:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Daily MACD and RSI divergences seem targeting that area to me for this dip, FWIW

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:40 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
What really confused me is why supposedly thousands of Euro long buy orders occurred near Christmas instead of waiting for now or even lower opportunity. Any clues, gents?

Eilat Dolphin 11:39 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Martin/ History marks you right on that double legged 4H move!

And since I missed that whole morning move because of writing instead of fxing, and since the E did hit the last frontier, that Armstong Line, I am not going to fight over the sardine bones leftover, and off to the sea.

Genoa nic 11:37 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
BC, good morning
Any chances to see Euro/$ trading around the 50 DMVA (1.32 fig) to build strategic longs for new highs? TIA

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Solo Raden Mas...words can not describe my sorrow for Indonesia & other countries in the path of the tsunami..much less the loss of five of your friends. Hoping the world will unite for once and HELP sufficiently. Being from California I know from the 1950s what tsunamis can do.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:28 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
London.//
I might add to your timely post below (Thanks!) about the plea for the Americans to get their USD in order..the USD cycles by itself every 10 years. Don't expect to see a devalued dollar forever, IT CAN'T and won't happen. In fact except to see one more dip in dollar value against its crosses possibly to all time lows against CHF (300-400 pips lower than this year's lows) occurring a number of years ago..then a slow rise to all time highs against CHF some 3.5-4 years later. That "one more dip" I mentioned above doesn't HAVE to happen..it likely will however. And I chose the CHF cross to reference this post because the Euro wasn't around 10 years ago to look at and if you check, the synthesized EUR/USD chart was largely based on USD/CHF ("Swissy"). The 10 year cycle resembles a sine wave if you check any Swissy 10 year chart.

So with or without Frankfurt's (home of ECB vis-a-vis Euro) whimpering and with or without G. W. Bush and his desciples, the USD will go its normal cycle all by its little self.

Expect to see a slow USD revaluation after the next low of 1.40 UNLESS the ECB does NOT cooperate to devalue the WAY OVER PRICED Euro to help the process as the Euro is sucking wind out of USD (former safe house) and other currencies' sails by attracting too many investors. ECB is reluctant to devaluate the Euro because:
(1) If they increase their money supply (print more fiat money) then inflation will result in the EZ. The cure would be to increase interest rates and that would make a mess out of the economy to further slow it down when it needs the opposite..to be speeded up.
(2) If they lower Euro's interest rate..again, inflation. So they're between a rock and a hard place.

The Euro is the only "foreign" or you could say "new" factor in the normal 10 year USD cycling and worldwide currency cycling for that matter. It has had an infectios affect similar to the European hare which was imported into Australia as a sporting animal but no one took intoconsideration it had no natural preditors and ended up being a serious crop and forrest pest, breading like rats. The Euro's injection into the system has infected the system with what might be an incurrable disease or parasite and was in my opinion a very unwise idea for many other reasons as well.

The very "disease" I refer to is world wide collapse, which the post mentioned below, wherein the Euro would seemingly "come to the rescue" and all gold reserves of the "buying in nations" would then be in Frankfurt as countries would be forced to Euroize themselves in desperate attempt to save themselves. Total centralization of wealth is an anarchistic idea.

Gaza Ibiza 11:18 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
BC... feels we are back to the latter half of dec 04....watching AUD break sub 0.77 for usd bulls to emerge. good trades to you!

shanghai bc 11:14 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   

They have to take out 1.3350--1.3300 barrier Euro-bulls first before throwing Euro bear-party..

gold coast martin 11:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
...same symptoms that the aussie is suffering from..

gold coast martin 11:11 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Auckland 11:06 GMT January 4, 2005
if we are both thinking of the excessive flows that have gone into the kiwi as a result of carry trades , the growing current account deficit,overvalued currency that is eroding export competativenes and the fact that there will be a slowing in world demand for commodities....then we are both right.....g/t to u2....

Tallinn viies 11:08 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
stops under previous day low has been taken out. now move over figure could push interbank desks to cover their shorts

Auckland 11:06 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Good day and happy new year to all...
gold coast martin what do you do to read my mind???(regards to KIWI)G/T...

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 11:01 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
chf

1.1673 1.1622 R3
1.1609 1.1590 R2
1.1594 1.1582 R1

gold coast martin 11:01 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....a breach of the 7087 level for the kiwi will be a critical area ......will head to 6970 if breached.....it has been on the cards for a while......g/t

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:59 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
eur

1.3351 1.3360 S1
1.3336 1.3350 S2
1.3271 1.3309 S3

Paris MAXX 10:48 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Think we will see Euro trade with a 1.32 handle this week and $/chf above 1.16...

London. 10:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
French Finance Minister Hervé Gaymard a day earlier.
Speaking on a visit to a General Motors factory in Strasbourg, Gaymard warned of a global economic disaster if the US, Europe and Asia did not work together to stem the dollar’s decline.
“If we stay in the current situation, it’s possible to imagine a disastrous situation at world level, for the Europeans who have an over-valued currency, for the Asians who hold assets in dollars and for the Americans because long-term interest rates will rise”, the minister said.
“It is absolutely necessary that... our American friends understand that coordinated management is needed at the international level”.

Tallinn viies 10:44 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
I guess bottom for today could be in place now

Alpha Tango EZ 10:40 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Long usd/chf at 1.1550 for 1.1590

eur lg 10:39 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Thanks nic, appreciated.

Genoa nic 10:37 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Good morning

Lg 10.30, FOMC policy announcement on Feb 02

GER ad 10:33 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Continentals (EUR, GBP, CHF...) lower on higher USD/JPY but with EUR/JPY back to 138.70 after touching 137.80 the Continentals will rebound later in the day IMHO.
I will buy 1.3345 if seen with S/L under figure. For the moment holding only EUR/CHF short from 1.5475 for 1.5430/40.

dubai sd 10:32 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
wait for eur to go to 1.3420/25 lvl. the short squeeze upto 1.3420 gud to short eur. a close below 1.3350 keeps eur bears happy

eur lg 10:30 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Anyone know when the next FOMC (Fed meeting) takes place ?

Thanks

gold coast martin 10:29 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
david bkk 10:27 GMT January 4, 2005
near brisbane.....

gold coast martin 10:28 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 06:00 GMT January 4, 2005
ANY WAY....FWIW...short aud at 7795......t/p 7724....stop...7823...using 7819 as resistance level....g/t

Out of aud short at 7724.........completelyflat now......

Makassar Alimin 10:28 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
happy new year everyone
should euro close below 1.3433 later, i expect 1.3174 to be printed
good calls martin! well done!

david bkk 10:27 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
Gold coast is in what city ??? brisbane ???

Tallinn viies 10:24 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
1,3345/50 should contain all downside attempts.
if not then next support I can see is 1,3210/25 level.
basically buy as much as you can take and stop loss at 1,3269.
sell all near 1,3650/70

gold coast martin 10:24 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
fwiw.....yesterdays euro shorts......only holding aussie short from this morning.....not opening anyfurther positions until ny session commences as that may confirm the trend for the rest of the week......g/t

gold coast martin 10:17 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Helsinki iw 10:16 GMT January 4, 2005
Good post....g/t

Helsinki iw 10:16 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Watch the market if we are trading at these levels on the majors when NY comes in. A few systemic traders would be turning their dollar positions in that case. fwiw

gold coast martin 10:10 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 10:05 GMT January 4, 2005
You may be right ..but rather wait until a pattern in the trend consolidates that will dictate terms for rest of the week.....dont want to have the risk of a vicious backlash that the cable is famous for...g/t

bkk david 10:05 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
gbpusd should go 1.8900 easily within 2hours from now

gold coast martin 10:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Market liquidity increasing.....any minor supports and resistnaces are been breached easily....like an express train...maybe euro train has a higher purpose like a 13065 with no stops....

NJ RT.......EXIT YOUR YEN LONG NOW...fwiw....exited yen longs at 10371(-5 below 10376 target)......

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 10:00 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
follow sell eur and gbp.
eur welcome to 3284 and gbp welcome to 8774

Budapest Daniel 10:00 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
seems like the mkt goes against everyone's anticipation

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 09:50 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gbp/usd.
buy now (8970) for tgt 9001(minimum), ideally at 9031-37. stop loss at 8950.

bkk david 09:49 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast and syd
we should short a few lots gbpusd at 1.8975, stop 1.9000
target 1.8900

singapore guru 09:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
euro likely to find support at 3385 and bounce back to 3440 first. GL/GT

singapore guru 09:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
euro likely to find support at 3385 and bounce back to 3440 first. GL/GT

gold coast martin 09:45 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 09:38 GMT January 4, 2005
NO..the last window of opportunity for the cable today was a short from the broken support level of 19018-19009...
Wait until 190 is breached and then short........g/t

Helsinki iw 09:42 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD putting pressure on the 1,3380/90 support level and it is looking soft intraday. Further support at 1,3325/35, which is likely to hold on a first run and could even turn the euro back up. A break however should see a larger move lower.

Tallinn viies 09:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
buy euros here over 1,3385/90.
target 1,3500sh
no stop here

Syd 09:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
GBP/USD: Breaks Below 1.9000 after Lower-Than-Expected PMI -Nov Consumer Credit GBP 1.4bn, Lower-Than-Expected

bkk david 09:38 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
Thank you, I just took profit short from 1.3465 at 1.3405

Do you think that we should sell gbpusd at 1.8980 ???

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 09:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
best level for eur/usd buy ias at 3373 and gbp at 8966.

slv sam 09:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
even better bet is to buy $/cad here at 1.2118 for 1.23 very soon.GT

gold coast martin 09:32 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Increased liquidity =more flows towards weekly bias(down),,for cable and euro...
A breach of 13385 resistance for euro will go long way towards trend for next week......g/t

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 09:30 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
okay.. its time for buy eur/usd and gbp/usd.
all have get target bottom.

London. 09:26 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Despite another dismal year for the U.S. dollar, some market watchers say the greenback is poised for gains in 2005LINK
Some pros see dollar bucking up in '05

London. 09:23 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
British Pound May Drop 2.4 Percent Versus Yen, Technical Chart Indicates...U.K. Pound Trades Near 15-Month Low Against Euro Before Home Loans Report
Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound traded near its lowest in 15 months against the euro before a Bank of England report that's expected to add to evidence of a cooling in the U.K. housing market. The number of mortgage approvals probably fell to 78,000 in November from 83,000 in the previous month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The report is due to be released at 9:30 a.m. London time. The number of mortgages approved by U.K. banks in November slipped to the lowest since records began in December 2001, the British Bankers' Association said on Dec. 29. The number of loans approved dropped 13 percent from October to 157,100, 33 percent down on a year earlier, according to the BBA, which represents 12 of the 15 biggest U.K. mortgage lenders. The U.K. economy, which has outpaced the euro region for 19 quarters, probably will grow at a slower pace this year as house prices decline and consumer spending eases, a survey of economists showed.



gold coast martin 09:22 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FWIW......The previously posted support for cable of 19009-19018 seems to be holding...for now...
Also should yen breach 103 the previously resistance level of 10272-10276 likely to hold for next 3 hours ...g/t

Alpha Tango EZ 09:21 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Long Gpb/Usd at 1.9025

Syd 09:15 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   


Howard unveils election platform Campaigning activity is accelerating ahead of the general election, which is widely tipped for May

Syd 09:00 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
A few things in the next couple of months..This weekend's meeting of G10 central bankers - the forum European Central Bank Governor Jean-Claude Trichet used to make his first complaints about the 'brutal' moves of the euro a year ago.

Then, in early February comes the next meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations in London. This will provide another opportunity for politicians to jockey for position in putting pressure on the U.S. to do something about the dollar's decline.

Dallas GEP 08:51 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Closed Eur/jpy @ 137.90 for profit

Syd 08:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Baghdad Province Governor, Not Mayor, Shot Dead

Dallas Mauricio 08:39 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP, Please IM me when you have a chance. Thanks.

Syd 08:18 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
German Seas Adj Dec Jobless +17K On Month
German Dec Unadj Jobless Rate 10.8% Vs 10.3% Nov

Syd 08:16 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
The recent fluctuations of the dollar against other currencies "are not welcome," Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said in an interview with Le Figaro published Tuesday.

Noyer said the euro's "effective" exchange rate hasn't risen as much against world currencies as against the dollar, and said exchange rate fluctuations have been bigger in the past.

He said recent trends have shown the euro to act as the originally intended "shield," protecting the euro area from internal tensions resulting from external shocks.

Long-term interest rates in Europe are now lower than in the U.S. and the euro zone is thus "disconnected" from U.S. markets, Noyer said.

Le figaro.france



Martin , get out and enjoy it.

gold coast martin 08:06 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Syd 08:03 GMT January 4, 2005
lol.....feels like the twilight years after day trading.....

Syd 08:03 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin a man in his prime of life :-)

Syd 08:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Cable threat is on the downside while below 1.9354, break of 1.8980 is next selloff trigger.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 07:57 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
welcome gbp to 8998-8988.
my strong recomend : sell now (1.9038).

gold coast martin 07:51 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 07:11 GMT January 4, 2005
...iam 35years old......

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 07:50 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
cut swicth your buy eur/usd at 1.3475/80/93 because 1.3450 have broken..thats mean will go to 1.3422 or 1.3404.

Syd 07:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
BAGHDAD (AP)--Gunmen assassinated the mayor of Baghdad, Ali al-Haidari, Tuesday, police officials said.

Al-Haidari was shot dead while in his car in Baghdad's northern neighborhood of Hurriyah, the police officials, who asked for anonymity, said. He was a target of another assassination attempt last year.

No other details were immediately received.

gold coast martin 07:44 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 07:05 GMT January 4, 2005
fwiw...the above post of 133445-50=13345-50..typing too fast ...may be time to stop.........g/t

gold coast martin 07:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 07:11 GMT January 4, 2005
Have been full time since 19 started in corporate fund management...got out of corporate ratrace 8 years ago and work for myself..ironically i still manage same fund i did when i was 19...funny how people follow you around,,,,still do corporate consulting.........FF for me is stress relief and a great learning tool...we are always learning in forex..the moment we feel we stop learning that is the moment we start a losing streak ...it is forexs way of telling to keep learning so that you can get back on a consistently winning way,,,,earning from learning rings very true in forex.....
BTW.....gold coast is in australia.....weather agrees with my trading ...so it is a good match.....
FWIW....It does not seem that the gbp will see the 19085 level again today.....resistance is building at 19058-64....as session wears on more downside for cable is expected below 19024 support which may be evaporating now...will confirm in 35 minutes.....g/t

Eilat Dolphin 07:38 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Bagdad governor or mayor assassinated as per Reuters.

Dallas GEP 07:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Shorted eur/jpy at market

david bkk 07:33 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
euro made new low of today 1.3446
see 1.3400-1.3880

bkk david 07:11 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
You are full time trader ?
How long you stay in this market?
Where is gold coast ?

I think you have quite good experience of trading forex

I would like to know thank.

gold coast martin 07:05 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 07:00 GMT January 4, 2005
Sorry..i dont.....as the first week is goig past the dollar is developing an upside bias...for this week any way...euro still has some downside for rest of the week....possibly 133445-50......after the 5th of january a totally new trend will be established....g/t for now....

Los Angeles ss 07:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Martin -- My platform printed 1.9025 close enough for me on your recommended cable short from 1.9085 Thanks again. Got to get you and Raden together and form a business for you two.

gold coast martin 07:00 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...support for gbp building at 19009-18....if short cut out at current level......out of gbp short at 19026........g/t

NJ RT 07:00 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Martin ... Do you agree with Raden on 1.3453/50 long ? Thnx

gold coast martin 06:57 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
A 13460 short ..not yet.....we may in 2 hours see 13485 again.....then you can short if you want...for now no....dont feel compelled that you have to trade and you are missing out...you are not...in fact by staying sidelined and try to determine flows you are winning...in terms of preserving your capital in this still thin and volatile market..... shorting at 13485-88 level offers lower risk....be patient...g/t

bkk david 06:51 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
Is it late to short eurusd at 1.3465 stop 1.3503 ?

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gold coast martin 06:48 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   


bkk david 06:42 GMT January 4, 2005
although it is tempting to short gold,it has a tendency to overshoot and react to every conceivable risk in the world....so from a capital preservation point of view i DO NOT RECOMMEND to play with gold in anydirection, unless you have deep pockets to support the possie and are an experienced trader.....its a no ,no for me ,but other higher risk taking traders do play it...thats just me.....

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 06:47 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
eur/usd
if touch 1.3453/50, please buy.

Los Angeles ss 06:43 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Martin -- your call for cable earlier sell from 1.9085 toward 1.9022 looks good. Thanks for the trade!

bkk david 06:42 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
should i short gold directly at 429.4 , stop 432 ok ?

gold coast martin 06:36 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Syd 06:34 GMT January 4, 2005
PATIENCE REQUIRED....as one esteemed gvi colleague said.....the aussie looks like ''A pig with lipstick".....

Syd 06:34 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   

Gold Coast Martin agree with you on that , CFTC aussie longs on the high side.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
12/28/04 week 12/21/04 week
Net 30,257 29,004

gold coast martin 06:00 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
ANY WAY....FWIW...short aud at 7795......t/p 7724....stop...7823...using 7819 as resistance level....g/t

gold coast martin 05:43 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
FWIW.....the aussie has got a high degree of vulnarability to the downside due to the drop in gold and the CRB index over the last 2 days.....it is showing resilience but i think it is just a natural lag...i dont exactly have a timeframe but if given 4-7 days it will follow its gold brother......and when it tanks it is worth the wait.......g/t

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 05:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 04:36 GMT January 4, 2005
yes.still same view. 1.3510,1.3513,1.3517 are levels must be look.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 05:38 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
4 Des 05

GBP/USD
Level sell : 9162/82 – 9409 – 9443 – 9691
Level buy : 8774 – 8747 – 8584 – 8431 – 8408

EUR/USD
Level sell : 3697/3710 – 3825 – 3944 – 4023
Level buy : 3373 – 3284 – 3255 – 3183 – 2916 – 2800

AUD/USD
Level sell : 7874 – 7910/21 – 7968
Level buy : 7563 – 7546 – 7483 – 7430 – 7391 – 7305 – 7274

USD/CHF
Level sell : 1727 – 1749 – 1953 – 1999 – 2027 – 2070 – 2125
Level buy : 1228 – 1167 – 1112 – 1098 – 1041 – 0995

USD/JPY
Level sell : 106.60 – 106.83 – 108.65
Level buy : 101.74 – 101.03 – 100.24 – 99.94 – 96.17

Gold
Level sell : 462.06 – 463.85 – 472.28
Level buy : 426.29 – 422.77 – 418.50 – 416.75 – 416.00 – 411.30 – 408.10

NB :
I believe that levels will give us high probability to change the chart direction. Lets see..
Raden mas

gold coast martin 04:58 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
BKK.....i have a position the opposite ..with a stop at 13526 using 13519 AS SUPPORT FOR THE EURO.....So longing euro is not recomended right now...imho......

bkk david 04:53 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
Should i buy eurusd at 1.3490 ,stop 1.3455 target
1.3535 ?????

gold coast martin 04:51 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
market.....g/t

NJ RT 04:46 GMT January 4, 2005
YES...10244 again today seems to be the central pivot of support ........i am not as confident as the last 2 days...should it be breached there is major support at 10226...however should yen travel to 10285-95 and beyond ,yesterdays minor resistance of 10274-76(which held for considerable amount of time), should hold the yen in check.....g/t

NJ RT 04:50 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Thank you Martin .... I'm hoping for the same ... Still believe that 102.44 stands as support?

gold coast martin 04:47 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   


NJ RT 04:43 GMT January 4, 2005
As i posted yesterday i closed some of my yen longs after yesterdays spike....but i am still long yen from 10274, 10253 and 10308 respectively.....still targeting 10376.....like yesterday we may only get one window of opportunity for that target today......its just the nature of the market.....g/t

NJ RT 04:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
102.44 still stands as support for usdjpy ? Thank you

NJ RT 04:43 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Martin .... hello,
Still holding that usd/jpy form last year? MIne still open @ 103.28 w/ s/l 102.05

Brisbane newbie 04:39 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Hi,

Anyone here who has been with censored long term ?

I am thinking of opening an account.

Thanks

NJ RT 04:36 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas
You mention before ...if eur/usd reaches 1.3515 to go short. Sill have the same thoughts? Thank you

Los Angeles ss 04:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Raden, your short term view on cable? You were so right on yesterday!

bkk david 04:32 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Any one
I feel that eurusd will go up to 1.3540 if it break out 1.3500 and usdjpy will go ????
However, I can not be sure signal.


gold coast martin 04:25 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 04:03 GMT January 4, 2005
Agree in relation to the wait and see attitude of bankers due to the first trading week of the year...however we are talking small moves of less than 100 pips rather than trying to pick a major 150-200 pip movement, which in the current sheme of things is fruitless.....after the 5th of january picking such movements may be less risky than now.....g/t

Los Angeles ss 04:24 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Greetings Raden!

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 04:19 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
hello all.

Eilat Dolphin 04:03 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Martin/ I wouldn't be surprized if the continental bankers go on a wait an see mode through the early european morning, as the odds for initiating a 150 ps move up or down would be about the same by now.

gold coast martin 03:57 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
EILAT....LOL.....determination is still there ....just needs to be chaneled into a different timeframe from yesterday.......g/l//////

Eilat Dolphin 03:54 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Martin/ I guess I had hopes that you people would have yesterday's determination if not impetuosity; and as you may know, contrary to bankers, beauties are always asleep AWOL an hour before sunrise, probably suffering from a post Cynderella Syndrome.

gold coast martin 03:49 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 03:45 GMT January 4, 2005
Good afternonn.....as i posted below like the GBP....Market flows will not come on line until i hour before the european (uk) open..until then chanel your energy into a Botticellian beauty.....g/t

Eilat Dolphin 03:45 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
martin/ I have the energy, but i don't see no market!

gold coast martin 03:41 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
wellington 03:12 GMT January 4, 2005
Jokes to relieve the monotony in flat periods is essential to the trading psychology of any trader.....seriously,treat as it is...a joke...dont get too up tight....chanell all your energy towards the market......peace in 2005 and a happy new year...fwiw...i have respect for ALL respectful traders regardless of their background....g/t g/l

austin edgy 03:36 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
anyone seeing a buy signal on the eur/$ with the MACD?

Eilat Dolphin 03:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Peace on the People From the Lands on the Rising Sun!

West Village NY 03:31 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
the men who stumble into our hood are nervious here in this part of NY.....

but if you can;t laugh at oneself then who can you laugh at????

aus yo 03:14 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
new zeland where the men are men and the sheep are nervous

wellington 03:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 02:16 GMT January 4, 2005
Keep your pathetic NZ jokes to yourself mate. This is meant to be a professional forum for global members, including many fine NZ traders. I for one don’t appreciate your continuous small minded remarks regarding sheep etc… Have some respect…

Los Angeles ss 02:56 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Martin.

gold coast martin 02:43 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 02:35 GMT January 4, 2005

fwiw...there are no cross flows in or out of the gbp right now to create movement......better to wait until 1 hour before european session comes on line to take a position....fwiw....gbp will trade to 19085-95 from current levels easing back to 19022 before US open....using resistance level of 19112.....g/t

Los Angeles ss 02:35 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Anyone have any views on cable at these levels?

gold coast martin 02:16 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Sydney EM 02:02 GMT January 4, 2005
US Animal Rts Activists Urge Boycott Of Australian Wool
SYDNEY (AP)-- .....with riding to economic prosperity "on the sheep's back."

lol..syd...the new zealanders have been riding on the sheeps back for years with no regards to the countrys economic prosperity but for purely personal benefit!!!...g/t

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:12 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Intraday indicators unwind today for the eur/usd and aud/usd pair. Both have a bullish asymmetrical triangle forming on the 1hr chart. The eur/usd pair failed to break the key support and gives hope to the bulls for an attack on the resistance. The dailies are unwinding also but the bears must break the key support soon or the bulls will take the pair over again. I still don’t have a confirmed buying on the eur/usd pair. The mode is still buying on dips. Here are the latest numbers for the eur/usd pair.


Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3480-90, 3520-40, 3580-3600, 3650-70, 3700-10, 3750-60 and 3800-10. Main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3585-95, 3540-50, 3500-10, 3460-70 and 3410-20.
Retracement numbers are 3540-50, 3460-70, 3395-3405, 3335-45 and 3260-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3490-3500, 3390-3400, 3300-10, 3210-20, and 3110-20 for now key retracement number is 3390-3400.
Resistance T/L 3660-70 and Support T/L 3390-3410 for now.
Support is around the 3440-50, 3380-3400, 3340-50, 3310-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, and 3130-40 for now key support is around the 3380-3400 area IMHO. GL GT

Sydney EM 02:02 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
US Animal Rts Activists Urge Boycott Of Australian Wool
SYDNEY (AP)--Since the early 1950s, historians have credited Australia, with its vast tracts of Outback grazing land and booming wool trade, with riding to economic prosperity "on the sheep's back."

Now a debate between farmers and animal rights activists over how to treat the skin on a sheep's backside is threatening to undermine the country's US$2.5 billion wool industry. Last year, the U.S.-based animal rights organization People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals launched a campaign to pressure global retailers to boycott Australian wool over the use of a farming practice called mulesing. The procedure - named for the Australian rancher, J.H. Mules, who invented it - involves slicing flesh and wool away from the sheep's rump to prevent blowflies from laying their eggs in the warm, damp skin.

The animals are strapped on their backs to metal bars while the skin is cut away, usually without anesthetic



Syd 01:59 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
Impact of Asia tsunami, cloudy outlook for semiconductors may mean Asia's less willing to accept stronger currencies on its own, "our medium-term view of ongoing dollar weakness has not changed but the summation of the two developments above could become a powerful force in driving a substantial rebound in the dollar, assuming better U.S. economic figures and more active intervention by Asian central banks." Under such scenario, revaluation pressure on CNY would ease, stocks, especially in HK, would consolidate alongside rising USD

DBS

LA fxnew 01:46 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
hi ..
can anyone give me an advice for cable trading today pls
thx ...

Rvk 01:14 GMT January 4, 2005 Reply   
test

 




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