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Forex Forum Archive for 01/07/2005

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Atlanta-South 21:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
VALDEZ// Your right those you mention deserve alot of thanks. I Too thank you guys. What a week. I'm out for the weekend ahead so far. Thanks in part to you guys. Oh, VALDEZ you are included in that list as well. This forum has the GREAT benefit of the vast knowledge you all give forth. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

Halifax CB 21:29 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
A counter example is in July 2003 - note the big weekly down that qualifies as a four-week-down point, but would have eaten you alive if you had had the misfortune to apply it formulaicly. GL...

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well mates, I want to thank personally in alphebetical order:

bobl
Dallas Gep
Eliat Dolphin
Goldcoast martin
OMIL
Tallin viis
Halifax
(and various others who helped me this week)

for helping us (and me personally). Incredible resource this forum, special thanks to our fine hosts Jay and John. Ciao amigos! Off for a walk in the park with la wifey. Juan Valdez (the coffe guy y su burro)

~~~~~<><><>~~~~~

Halifax CB 21:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hi GOES - re the 4 week rule, as Jay pointed out, the 4 week rule is just an old rule of thumb that if your weekly close is lower than the lows of the previous four calendar weeks, then it's probably a good time to sell (i.e. expect further down moves). I don't use it - I just remember it. The problem for me is that while it might be true, you have to expect alot more volatility in our current state, so that while Eurousd might be a good short if you aren't trading on margin, if you are highly leveraged you may have to deal with several hundred pips counter moves.
I put a plot with one example marked from last January's countermove (on the weekly charts). As you can see, selling after that close had a good probability of making money. There's some other examples on the graph as well (although also some counter examples). The problem is that during the initial phases of a reversals volatility can get rather, hmmm, upsetting :). GL/GT...

FRA Alpha Tango 21:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
fed up! out of the market and...loaded!

FRA Alpha Tango 21:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
the other point is at .66 and the super special offer at 1.3090

Dallas GEP 21:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Ok that;s it for me last two possies I had sucked. 2nd to last was a loss and last one was a whopping +1. Day was a net gain but could have done much better I think Have a great weekend

orlando jcr 21:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
B747,

I had a disaster during NFP in September ($Y) - mostly because I was caught in a bad trade overnight and didn't get out before NFP - which made it an even worse disaster.

Couldn't get out of it fast enough, and then couldn't get out of it hoping to make just some of it back - which of couse it did not. Took a serious chunk out of my trading pool of $, and took many weeks to just have the guts to come back inot the market. This forum helped me a bunch in those weeks by learning from others posts and making smarter trades - along with good risk management.

It's going to take me some time to make up those losses, but with help of FF, I'm on my way back. Many good trades since them and some bad ones too, but I've learned to read signals because of the forum on when to cut losses.

Good trades to you as I know exactly how you feel. You will come back from one bad day with many more (maybe smaller) good days.

Today was okay for me - platform didn't let me do the trade I wanted at NFP - but made some good pips throughout the day (about 100 for the day), although I had planned on more.

FRA Alpha Tango 21:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
sell euro at .62 , I've detected a new attempt to print new lows. Hey? why not!

GOES B747 21:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:51 GMT // thanks ... I am looking on charts to understand better your posts about the 4 weeks secenario ... can you include possible prices devolopment per EUR/USD?

tia & gt

Halifax CB 20:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Updated plots. Some of them beggar belief (eg the GBPUSD - anything that certain is, like any fanatic, dubious), FWIW, the estimated time frames are probably quite wrong, as today was much more volatile than usual. But it's Friday, & I've got some other fish to fry...

Budapest Daniel 20:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
goes: ok, then I buy a lot of them now and will sell them later... :))

GOES B747 20:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 20:49 GMT // soon you will see the prices of onion, potatoes and tulips going up ... I have to cover some FX losses :)

gt

Halifax CB 20:51 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
GOES 747 - If it's any consolation, I do remember losing something like 30-40% of my trading funds in a move very similar to today, but in several markets simultaneously. Maybe we all lose our 'virginity' in something like that. But never again - but I also remember really clearly the incredible relief when I just bit the bullet and closed all the losing positions. It was kind of like my first divorce - I chanced across a friend on the bus back from the courthouse; and although she didn't know what I had just been through, she remarked on how happy I seemed. Closure isn't such a bad thing....

Budapest Daniel 20:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
GOES are you a farmer as well? Do you have a laptop built into you tractor as well for trading? ;)

FRA Alpha Tango 20:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Roger

GOES B747 20:46 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Alpha Tango // I salute you ... feel free to call me anytime and I will go with my tractor to prepare my tulips field for your landing ... have a nice one.


gt

San Diego bobl 20:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dublin CK...
Thank you for your commentary; if anyone interested in looking at wild and woolly chart...check out USD @ lows 1980
(85) to highs late 1984 (almost 165) and right back down to 85 in early 1987! We only have ONE monthly close below 80 in Aug/1992! We have tested 30 year lows in the dollar, which didn't even begin trading futures until Nov '85...food for further contemplation.

FRA Alpha Tango 20:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 20:31 GMT January 7, 2005
Of course :) , I was just joking. No one on earth has a single chance to succeed without a system, a method, a money management, a selfcontrol, a news source, a knowledge ...

prague viktor 20:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel..yeah i feel good with them ...till now(but dont trade b4 the NFP)..G/T

GOES B747 20:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB 18:56 GMT // thanks mate, wish you better luck than I had (did not trade right may describe better thab luck)and never to know the feeling that I have now.

1.35++ is on the cards some when during the coming 1-6 weeks but I hope to enjoy meeting 1.35++ before meeting with the cleaners ... the feelng of being on holiday knowing that 400++ pips in my favor is coming and missing it because of few pips (s/l hit) is not a feeling that I wish to anyone.

gt and have great weekend

Budapest Daniel 20:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FRA I'm sure you've to trade according to at least your own system... :)

Budapest Daniel 20:29 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viktor: I've changed platform a few weeks ago to the recent one and I'm very pleased using it. 1-2 pip spreads instead of the 5 that I used to trade :) Do you like it as well?

prague viktor 20:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel...we have the same one..

FRA Alpha Tango 20:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 20:16 GMT January 7, 2005
No, I don't use anything. It's all luck!

Dublin CK 20:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Athens hope you dont mind me posting this -But its worth a read again - if anything to understand that beginning of years there can be big movements - either reversals or retracements.

Have good weekends.

"Athens 09:30 GMT December 29, 2004
Is the market trying to close the year with EUR/$ around its highest levels whichever they might be this week?

Here's an interesting historical case which I described again a long time ago. It refers to the huge USD decline during 1985-87 when $/DEM collapsed by more than 19,000 pips. On December 31 1987 $/DEM posted the year low at 1.5670. On the first trading day of 1988 and shortly after opening in Asia it dipped to 1.5610 for a new low of the gigantic downtrend and on the same day it rallied to 1.5895. The next day it surged to 1.6335 and a day later to 1.6700. That was the beginning of the long term corrective USD uptrend which lasted 1 1/2 years and brought $/DEM to the major top 2.0470 in June 1989. Next we saw the new megacycle of USD weakness which brought $/DEM down to 1.34 in 1995 before correcting up again. I am not saying that we shall see the same picture but it may be worth keeping a few historical long term major market movements in mind. PS I traded at 1.5615 that night long $/DEM as a broker friend of mine called me on the phone from the Far East, so I hit the absolute bottom, but unfortunately I took my profit in the mid 1.57s shortly after...

A Happy and Prosperous New Year to everyone here."

Dallas GEP 20:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Closed usd/chf longs

Budapest Daniel 20:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
WOW 1 pip spread prints on my plattform on eurusd

Budapest Daniel 20:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
...on the 5 min charts

Budapest Daniel 20:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FRA do you use bollingers now?

FRA Alpha Tango 20:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
no 1.3030 is ok 1.3020 is bad , but in the other hand, prices won't get below 1.30 so, just buy it!

FRA Alpha Tango 20:15 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
ok, euro is a buy , buy at 1.3040 for 1.3090 or so. Stop 1.3030 bid (I 've got a doubt one that one...)

Budapest Daniel 20:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Got 17 pips again... Yumm-yumm

Thanks for all of the pros out here

bkk david 20:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
stop gbpusd out at 1.8728.
I think now eurusd, gbpusd is is very bottom.
In monday, we should see they go uptrend.

San Diego bobl 20:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
HK RF ...
thank you for sharing your thoughts; re: usd/cad

FRA Alpha Tango 20:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
1.3042 1.3067 , buy the lowest , sell the highest. if 1.3042 prints first, forget about 1.30 and have a nice week end. We'll land next week.

FRA Alpha Tango 19:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 19:48 GMT January 7, 2005
Roger Dolphin, see you.

San Diego bobl 19:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Had to run errand, so have missed posts...
taking some aud/usd short here; .7560

4-week closing trade rule stuff from turtle trading days...
great trending trading method; they used to use 10-day stop, i.e. if short, then 10-day high would take you out; MAJOR factor for turtle methods was risk ratios and position sizing, as with all successful trading techniques

Eilat Dolphin 19:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
alpha tango/ Right! This two floor climb should do the evening building.
Bailed out. Over.

EXcellent week end all!

FRA Alpha Tango 19:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 19:41 GMT January 7, 2005
Lima Lima Bravo Yankee Zulu
Roger, 10 000 , with you ;)

Halifax CB 19:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Gol dang your right, the close has to be below the lowest of the previous four weeks (not the lowest close). Glad I don't trade on my own misinformation, but here it could apply. In the longer term, and without margin, of course (keeping last years volatility in mind....). But thanks..

Budapest Daniel 19:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Keep us posted Alpha Tango Echo...

Wilco :)

FRA Alpha Tango 19:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
euro ripe to get down, 1.3069 stroken. 1.30 eyed unless the new bar on 4 hour chart invalidate the scenario

GVI Jay 19:35 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
CB. The way I remember it, commodity types would go short or long on closes below the 4 week low or high. I believe there used to be traders who only traded on that indicator.

Budapest Daniel 19:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Very very good day for me... Just closed my very first 100,000 unit trade(it can be ridiculously low for all of ya)... I ussually play with 10,000 - 30,000 'cos I'm a beginner

Halifax CB 19:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
for those are interested (hi Jay) the 4 week rule is an old commodity rule that the best sell time is if your weekly close is below the lowest of the closes of the previous 4 weeks.

Halifax CB 19:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
For those without dailies back over the last year, this plot may be of interest. Another 300 pip day. as someone said earlier today, it's deja vue all over again for the whole week....I do have higher freq data for that time, I'll see if later I can dig it up - but for those who really got hit hard by the drop, there's always the next week or two. There's other similarities with the following days - in particular the increase in volatility which can be expected over the next month while this sorts itself out. Good for some, bad for others. GL/GT

gold coast martin 19:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
BKK,,,,Be patient,,,,,

Dallas GEP 19:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Longed usd/chf at market 15 pip stop

bkk david 19:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
how do you think gbpusd now ?

london ross 18:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
well dan 4 steps, i think we will see 1 mor soon ,next week.
next week is reserve bank meeteng,sos--- karefly

Halifax CB 18:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well, I don't know if anyone pays attention to old saws like the 4 week rule, but I think tonight's close that's going to set the tone now for the next months on Eurusd, if you have deep enough pockets (or don't trade on margin) to survive 300+ pip rides back up on a week or two basis.

GOES B747 - sorry to hear that, hope in the long run it works out. Today's move was unusual; I'm curious as to what sort of usuable information can be gotten from it re. how to interpret big spikes like the first one up this a.m....

gold coast martin 18:55 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   


Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:52 GMT January 7, 2005
Thanijg you Omil...your posts and levels are always read and respected by me....lets have a constructive and not a destructive FF IN 2005...G/Weekend to you too...keep well....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Martin looks like you start the year hot that is good news. Thanks again for you contribution to this forex family. Every currency has it’s day today the $ had it’s way with the majors. Correction continues with the T/L and retracement area (3020-40) holding up the show in the eur/usd pair for now. Like I said before there have been good calls in the FF this week but let’s not lose the fact of the matter. It is not wise to follow others people’s calls blindly this is only to compare with our own plans. In the end it is the individual that pulls the trigger and has to live with it IMHO. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend and remember not to spend all the pips in the same place. See you on the other side.

HK [email protected] 18:51 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

San Diego bobl 18:23 GMT January 7, 2005

I think buying usd/cad may be decided better after the close today. Means next week.
To make it safe; A close above 1.2355 to be safe, will do.

gold coast martin 18:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Brussels ML 18:41 GMT January 7, 2005
The cable has got a habit of hitting targets quickly when correct direction is determined.....i believe we are we have the right direction....just a note...if 18612 gets hit quickly with no retracement of 30 pips..then the next target of 18521 will follow in a 2-3 day timeframe......g.t

FRA Alpha Tango 18:46 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
euro's gonna get .69 eventually. THE sell point

Brussels ML 18:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 18:07 GMT January 7, 2005
I still have cable hitting 18612 tonite,,,if not..... during mondays european session....

I'm following you again Martin.
With your good calls, it simply can't go wrong :)



San Diego bobl 18:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Buying more usd/cad...1.2323; first entry was 1.2341; will buy down to 1.2250 area which should hold. 1.22 breach would change longer term picture and put me on sidelines.

Would like to sell more aud/usd a bit higher

Eilat Dolphin 18:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Here we may have seen an historical low.

(disclaimer: first time ever I venture such an outrageous statement!)

gold coast martin 18:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
13267=13067,,,,

gold coast martin 18:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....TO KEEP IT SHORT....NO CIGAR FOR 13008 BREACH TONITE BUT NO CIGAR FOR BREACH OF 13267 LEVEL......G/T

hong kong nt 18:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR 1.367 / 1.05 = 1.302
EUR fibo supp 1.302
CHF 1.129 / 0.95 = 1.188
GBP 1.955 / 1.05 = 1.862

Eilat Dolphin 18:14 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
B 747: (lo evanti ett hacoll, aval ani mévin ché cohev...) take care!

bkk david 18:11 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
ok, I am holding short gbpusd until monday in european session. I still use stop 1.8728 no change.

Eilat Dolphin 18:11 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
alpha tango/ Nous aussi, coco! "we too buddy"

Bahrain within 10 pips 18:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Might be a good idea to get ride of long yen here

FRA Alpha Tango 18:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
sell at 1.3054 , .69 ideal but out of range...( I understand myself!)

gold coast martin 18:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   


bkk david 18:04 GMT January 7, 2005
I still have cable hitting 18612 tonite,,,if not..... during mondays european session....

San Diego bobl 18:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
A usd/jpy close >105.0000 would be compelling for long hold. We are sure gaming that level now...big levels getting some service today.

usd/jpy...105
eur/usd...1.3000
gbp/usd...needs a little work to try 1.8500 which consider major level

Eilat Dolphin 18:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Within 10 pips/ Yes, cigar! To you! As you probably are the wolrd's largest Euro buyer this evening!
And if there's nobody behind, that makes Alpha and me the other medals world champs on Euro.
Unless Valdez jumped in of course.

Pecs Andras 18:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I think the 1,3000 is just a psychological barrier and option defense figure. The real test will be the 2930/40 level
I expect a good bounce from there

Tallinn viies 18:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:53 - [email protected]

Im going out now, talk to you on monday

GOES B747 18:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 17:51 GMT // it was special ... but also EUR/USD 25M short from 1.3520 hit while I was in Jerusalem @ 1.3645 made me to be the crazy for real and not like FRA jokes ...

Dolphin, that was very serious hit for me and now it looks that I a, again locked in the losing chain ... feels very bad and I hope for all the good guys around here NEVER not to have the feeling I have for the moment.

gt

bkk david 18:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
gbpusd you will adapt target 1.8612 ?

gold coast martin 18:03 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....since there are nor a lot of us left trading....since the 130 level is a big thing for a lot in here i will do a quick correlation flow to determine whetehr there is enough momentum for a breach tonite....reply in 20 minutes...

FRA Alpha Tango 18:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
buy euro at 1.3025 for 1.3069 and sell again at that point for the final approach on 1.30

Bahrain within 10 pips 18:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
This should be the lowest value for the euro...
till 1.3710...no cigar so far

London JH 17:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Cheers everyone!!! Better get off to the pubs then!

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viis..email me at my handle at yahoo pls. business.

FRA Alpha Tango 17:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
GOES B747 17:48 GMT January 7, 2005
As would say Yoda, " Always in move is the future". For now, the configuration says buy me at 1.30 and not " treat me bad " . Anyways, if euro "wants" to go lower, it will tell me first, I 'll tell you then!
10 000 with you! ( i think I'm crazy!)

gold coast martin 17:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
...it is beginning to look a mirror image of the 124-136 scenario of the last 5 months...but first things are first ..certain things need to be confirmed.....like a breach of the 13008 level.......the market to re-focus on american growth and EU zone wekness...lets not forget ...at 130-129-128...even at 118 we still have a euro that is overvalued and the only way to see these levels is for greenback to be supported by strong fundamentals.....we still have a censored of a lot of wood to chop ahead of us.......g/t

Eilat Dolphin 17:51 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
B747/ Man, you could have said so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:51 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
new euro low 15 pips under old base of 3040guys playing at 3025
humm...itchey fingers here

Tallinn viies 17:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
at home now.
curious to see what happened.
I must say wow. real WOW market today.
so, even my next order was done.
Im long now and ready to rock and roll.
will buy next part at 1,2984
in any case sell order to 1,3135 stop reverse at 1,3165
good luck have a nice w/e
uuahh amazing market.
beers here I come!

Eilat Dolphin 17:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tango Alpfa/ looks like we are the only buyers on the plane, with Within 10 Pips.
Ain't that scary?

Rockford BDR 17:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Valdez
are you looking at hourly or daily charts when looking for those large retracements in the past?

EU ZORRO 17:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hi Spot...!!

...IMO...we are prety close to that ZORRO ZONE....!!!!

...and this one will be the Low for this year...!!!!

Have a nice weekned all....!!!!

GOES B747 17:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FRA Alpha Tango 17:44 GMT // I just return from Jerusalem and Eilat (had a rain fall there in Wendsday, very special!!!) and purchased a T-Shirt says: "Don't worry, be Jewish"...

seriously, I have reasons to worry; does according to your opinion 1.2995 (BID) represents a safe point for EUR long?
please share your t/p target for the EUR/USD you took ... many thanks in advance and good luck to you the whike way.

thanks in advnace again ...

Eilat Dolphin 17:47 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tango Alpha/ I never buy large amount, drive fast, drink too much and... oups; there is no and!
Where in fra ?

London Iain 17:46 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EURUSD again. Channel support held very well on initial attack but has now failed. looking at fibs, 50% of this wave from 1.2220 comes in at 1.2940 (so almost coinciding with last years high at 1.2930). I'm still long, but not chasing with a deep stop. 1.3015 will do, which I fully expect to be done come Monday. Overall, I still feel a very big bounce is around the corner, but feel it will now be a bounce, not a correction. Then lower, for months.

London NR 17:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Spotforex NY 17:28
RE London pubs, "The Hobgoblin" on Balcombe street, marylebone London, BNP Paribas hangout, nice guys will tell you anything for a pint lol.

FRA Alpha Tango 17:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
GOES B747 17:40 GMT January 7, 2005
don't worry man, 1.30 is a psychologic level, the chart is ultra oversold and the recent retracement is big enough to convince most of the players that 1.30 is good to buy , at least to take some profit. It's friday, so 1.30 is touched it will hold and everyone will be happy!

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Jkt Rick 17:37 GMT January 7, 2005
Yes and the smell is sweet. Daniel, hold to your guns..look at past big christmas peak system..when it goes it goes..500-600 pips. fast too..usually faster than it came down.

San Diego bobl 17:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin...
thank you.

Interesting on gold/aud; I am examining correlation on several time frames and sequences right now. On daily charts
Sept '04 to end of year correlation was spot on. Now the lag you referred to evident, and widening. 2-hr chart appears to show trade opps supporting your post. Good work and very interesting. I will create more studies on this and enjoy sharing ideas.

I covered some aud/usd at the half

FRA Alpha Tango 17:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well, Dolphin, If you want to on extremes, I think you can buy a large amount at 1.30

Eilat Dolphin 17:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
rick/ 620 in 6 days... Now if it goes to 666, by closing time, (which I strongly oppose), some people are going to be real scared.

GOES B747 17:40 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FRA Alpha Tango 17:31 GMT // please share your t/p for this trade as s/l is very clear (1.2995 right?) ...

I pray for your head :)

gt

Austin rb 17:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
does anyone think monitoring the usd/chf helps time entries and exits for the other usd pairs sems to eliminate early entry or false crosses. Relatively new to forex so maybe I am reading things into this

Jkt Rick 17:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
euro has fallen 500 pips in 5 days, can anyone smell a correction coming up.

Jkt Rick 17:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
wonder if low 1.30's super strong support will also let go, what a wonderful begining to the year this has been.

Eilat Dolphin 17:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Alpha Tango/ Your hat should be enough. However I agree while 26 prints and my fingers are trigger/tickle.
Pause, trigger button.

I feel much more confortable playing on extremes, because of the stats that back the analysis.

gold coast martin 17:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
LOL SPOT...

FWIW...keep an eye and the cable ...if yen maintains momentum to 10535 non-stop....aussie 7528 will be seen and 18618 for cable....

SAN DIEGO BLL.......I was referring to my correlation analysis for a weekly.mothly outlook for when i get back to real trading on monday for the fund....will email you prognosis via Valdez....g/t

Budapest Daniel 17:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I've longed eur/usd @ 1.3040 earlier with a relatively quite large amount... hope it wont be stopped out

LondonJoe 17:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
JH - try www.efinancialcareers.com ... good background info on salaries and companies there.... goodluck...

FRA Alpha Tango 17:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
long euro/dol 1.3035, anyway, 1.30 will hold, I'll bet my head on that!

Spotforex NY 17:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
London JH

The London pubs would be a good place to network....find out where the boys and girls chat about their FX war stories.....Johnnies Fish Grill was such a place in NY when the broker market reigned supreme......

Dallas GEP 17:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
OUT on eur/usd longs -15

Eilat Dolphin 17:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
One could think that its 500K jobs that were added,
and if my numbers are right, the American Ladies added some 250K kids last month, like any other month.

gold coast martin 17:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 12:44 GMT January 7, 2005
Mtl JP 12:16 GMT January 7, 2005
In fact ..i dont have the gold chart in front of me but if you pull up a 12 hour gold chart and a 12 hour aud chart ,you may see one developing now...fwiw....gold 421.10/60...been around this level for most of today while aussie should at 75.99-7651..the longer gold stays at 421 level while aussie may move tonite + or - 70 pips the greater the propability of a lag and the greater the propability of a gap created..the more static gold stays and the more the aud awings the greater the size of the gap hence more pips when catching up is in process....g/t.



gold coast martin 12:35 GMT January 7, 2005
Heap= hip.

RE:gold /aussie correlation.....i am happy to send you some info at a later stage tather than taking forum space....all i can say is that of late as i posted a while ago the gold and the aussie have been detached from the hip due to overriding aussie fundamentals thus leaving a lagging gap between the 2 ..which were attempted to get filled at various scenarios...Phuket waverider pointed to one yesterday and when one appears it does produce good pips while the aussie tries to get attached to the heap again with its gold daddy....g/t

SAN DIEGO ...I POSTED THIS EARLIER ON GVI..in relation to the correlation between AUD AND GOLD..it may guide you...g/t

San Diego bobl 17:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin...

When we were in fast market this morning you referred to a
"weekend review/report"; I would love to get that if possible.
I respect your views very much.

I believe you have my email address if that is OK with you.

Thank you quito_ecuador_valdez; I feel we have created a great alliance that will work well for us per email yesterday. Love to share ideas with experienced and like minded traders.

london steamer 17:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin Thanks for your advise really appreciated.

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Euro might do a wild Jump...could be really wild...not sure.. :)

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eur support broken by 1 pip on my ohanda chart

London JH 17:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hi

I am in my second year at university and desperately want to get onto a currency trading desk over the summer, I don't care if I get paid or not or whether I just end up potocopying etc.. thats fine. Does anyone have any suggestions about how to go about this. I have sent my CV off to the big banks etc, but I don't know of any companies that specifically just trade FOREX, where can I find a list of these companies?
Also, just out of interest what salary would a graduate FX trader start on?
Cheers

Jonny

Pecs Andras 17:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
"The NZD/USD continues to grind lower this afternoon to 0.6946/52 and US session lows with US names seen selling. Talk from traders out of the region suggest that funds are holding the highest level ever of NZD and this is increasing the chance for a major slide in the antipodean currency. A Reuters survey indicates that the median expectation of banks in NZ is for the Kiwi to fall to 0.6600."

Might be some good news for kiwi shorters, including myself FWIW

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
maybe today isn't over..if support breaks then another trip south on the bus.

Spotforex NY 17:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
where is the Zorro zone now??????

1.24/25 level is the major uptrend line in euro for the uptrend that started back in Apr 2002.....

This trendline was last tested back in Aug at the 1.20 level (and Zorro noted it was his 'zone')

Fibs retracement look to be 1.2000 for 38 pct and 1.05 is 61.8 for this trend.

Jacarta Rick must being eyeing the 1.05 for his shorts.....

happy hunting all!!!!!

London Iain 17:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
channel support at 1.3040 holding eur so far. If it can begin to reverse trend then good upside potential into next week. Either way, risk reward is good. I'm long - stop at 1.3015.

gold coast martin 17:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
london steamer 17:04 GMT January 7, 2005
RE:KIWI...if entering @6948(WHICH IS MARKET) with a target of 6856 ...stops at 6979.....with a 2 day timeframe...if entering market with a target od 6780 with a 3 day timeframe ...stops at 7009..... if you like me are trade on a weekly or monthly timeframes on this pair...with a target of 62-64.....if enter at 6948,,,stops to be at 7018 and to be moved progressively to lock in profit as profit materialises......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:18 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
multiple test assault on base line on euro but line held the weight...bulls still have a few frejoles (or should we say sushi since Yen powered this) in the pot maybe...bobl's 1.3000 may be a reality before quittin' time at 23:00.

cerete colombia 17:18 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
dallas what is your target for your long on euro?

FRA Alpha Tango 17:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
short covering at 1.3035, I expect a reaction and a return around 1.3080. The market might miss of inertia to get 1.3005 today...

Dallas GEP 17:15 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
longed euro at market

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:14 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
bobl//gotta hand it to you...you know your stuff.

Keep eyes on E/$ chart..shorting signs here.

Pecs Andras 17:14 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Martin
Thanks a lot, I appreciate your views.
I intend to hold on to this short and add more when more downside is seen

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
1.3160 maybe

london steamer 17:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin
15min 2days which shows a top around 7055 but if I position trade will it need to be different?

San Diego bobl 17:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Pulled this from archives fwiw...

San Diego bobl 16:04 GMT January 3, 2005
gold renewing it's slip...bods well for dollar; euro/$ spread chart would cross below 1.3000; need a lot more evidence to expect that, but certainly 34 failure on daily close would crack some stops

Point is that spread charts often display repeating pattern...
that is why eur/usd spread chart targeted a trade below 1.3000; as with all technical reads, it is just information that may play out, but the more stable the history, the more reliable the information.

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Long euro here

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Euro might go up in the next 1 Hour

gold coast martin 17:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
london steamer 17:04 GMT January 7, 2005
What timeframe are you trading?

london steamer 17:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin What would be a good sl onthe kiwi?

Livingston nh 17:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
CAD and aussie are holding above early December lows (as are BRL, JPY, SGD and KRW) so this "reversal" looks to be confined to the europeans

gold coast martin 17:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 16:59 GMT January 7, 2005
IF shorting cable at 18694.....stop at 18728 should hold....g/t

gold coast martin 17:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
PECS....fwiw....as i posted 1 month ago.....i have layers of kiwi shorts fom the 71 to 7218 range.....i intend to keep them for 2 months...looking to exit at 62 levels...... been collecting them like euro zorro was collecting euro last year.....g/t

bkk david 16:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
gbpusd what stop loss should i short at 1.8697 ?

Roumeli anka 16:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin dont figth an elliott wave count :)

gold coast martin 16:55 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Pecs Andras 16:49 GMT January 7, 2005
My earlier post of today on kiwi still apply...revisiting 6953 again....and a breach of 6857 early in the week....the kiwi like the aussie has a lot of downside currently...if keep possition for a 7-10 days a figure of 6550 may be seen....g/t

Stockholm AGuy 16:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Looking as always for reversal signs, I note that while gold is down another 3 bucks today, the HUI is actually up. Gold stocks tend to lead bullion, which has led EUR lately, so...

FRA Alpha Tango 16:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I've got an interim support for euro at 1.3030 that could hold for some hours as the market is ultra oversold

San Diego bobl 16:51 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
resting order usd/cad filled 1.2341

gold coast martin 16:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 16:36 GMT January 7, 2005
Dont wotty about the loss...if we all dont lose we dont learn....anyway,,,,The lagging behind of the cable may be a good short at 186985-90 levels for a target of 18612...i prefer to long the yen at 10475 if seen for a target of 10578.......follored by 10638 if 10578 is achieved.....g/t

Eilat Dolphin 16:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
CB/ LOL, I never thought of that...

Pecs Andras 16:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Martin
Any strong iew on NDZ?
Tia

Halifax CB 16:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin - Sometimes I think hysteria is the primary fundamental lol...

Eilat Dolphin 16:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
For sure martin, have a great W.E. !

Eilat Dolphin 16:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
anka/ I took a week to erase half the distance to the 200 MA that built up on 90 days...
And we didn't get real big news, excess washing it is.

More than needed, and late to come for sure, but still!
We do have hysterical traders here running for cover, but that's not that much fundamental.

gold coast martin 16:38 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
fwiw,,,,gbp and aussie suffering from natural lag again in relation to euro...will see more downside before ny close.....

Brussels ML 16:38 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Martin,

your usd/jpy long (@103.92) was a winner again.
Took 60pips profits.

Cairo Amgad 16:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Wish you all happy Weekend

For those whom did not long $ yet, wait till monday, there will be better levels to short from. Here are some levels to start from:

Eur/USD: 1.3122-1.3140-1.3166

bkk david 16:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
Hi i just made loss from long eurusd fortunately I stop only 90pips not 200 pips.
Thank you for your warming ,but i did not response.

How do you think about eurusd, usdjpy , gbpusd now?






gold coast martin 16:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 16:25 GMT January 7, 2005
Frankly,i was planning from 2 weeks ago to leave my monthly opinion until over this week end,,..untili finish my correlation analysis ...so can i get back to you on that over the weekend?...as i go back to fund trading on monday i dont want to say anything now that i am not sure of....still this week ,despite been an insignificant week due to been the first of the week has given me a lot of food for thought over the week end.....so i will let you know ...sunday night ...your time....g/t

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
closed eur/usd shorts

Roumeli anka 16:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Gotin... I wait a 61.8 retracement of the total move

San Diego bobl 16:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Just from technical read...imho...aud/usd the best looking chart out there. Majors look a little tougher to me, but I am taking some more aud/usd short here @ 7588. Platform finally stable with market getting more quiet. Today's close should be one of the more interesting/prophetic than we have seen in a while. Also, resting order to buy usd/cad 1.2341.

Eilat Dolphin 16:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
martin/ What do you say ? E/$ long for the week end or... ?

Budapest Daniel 16:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
waites=waited

Budapest Daniel 16:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
censored, I've only gathered 60 pips from this eur/usd ride should have waites more :)

gold coast martin 16:18 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
fwiw..i may be stating the obvious but as posted many times over in the FF any AUD SHORT requires patience but the wait is well woth it,,if you are a day trader for today dont short it,,unless you are prepared to keep it until early next week.....g/t

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Shorted euro/usd at market

Eilat Dolphin 16:18 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hitting the silk here of my too E early rescue attempt at + some sardines.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:18 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Watch the bounce on eur/usd as the 3100-10 support is now resistance. If price action stays below this resistance the bears have a bit more room to go to try to take out the T/L 3030-40 support IMHO. GT

San Diego bobl 16:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well...as many of you are aware...some trading platforms/servers froze. Personally, needed to call in orders. The "pro" desk informed me that 2 Fed members currently being interviewed and markets moving on comments. I got flat, albeit quite nicely, as I always do when order platform has problems. Clearly, market digesting (or not!) the information. May have opportunity to make some nice closing trades today for holds.

Eilat Dolphin 16:14 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Alpha Tango/ Flying a lot these days ?

Eilat Dolphin 16:13 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
cannes/ Well, the mother in law was the part I didn't want to remember. Boheme II is a 100 foot sloop of friends, at the top end of the harbour. Usually there during winter.

FRA Alpha Tango 16:12 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin, a sell opportunity is at 1.3080 to get 1.30 for sure.
( risk makes me feel alive lol!)

gold coast martin 16:12 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 16:10 GMT January 7, 2005
GOLD AT 417...AUD AT 7581 CURRENTLY= LAG and a gap that needs to be filled.....short aud @ market may work well....g/t

Even a better reason to Short AUD......G/T


Eilat Dolphin 16:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Alpha Tango/ 30 to 40 Ps is good climbing before a return wave hits.On my last 2000 (4H) candels at least.

Why do you love risk ?

Spotforex NY 16:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
agree with that Martin.....I am eyeing the NY close for confirmation...

from GVI:
Spotforex NY 16:01 GMT January 7, 2005
A$ looking like a sale vs USD on Daily charts.....The September uptrend line is being violated........below .76 area

cannes 16:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
eilat
i posted also
cannes fr 16:34 GMT December 30, 2004
to confirm my theory:
this mornig i was asked by my mother in low, for the first time in my live, if is not the case to sell us$ and buy euro. very bad sign

re your question: i do not understand what you meen. sorry

gold coast martin 16:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
SHORT [email protected]/P 7537...STOP 7609.....the wayward puppy is straying again.....

gold coast martin 16:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
TO ad to the last paragraph an update:..the only thing that will defeat market to see the yen and cable figures is time,,,should euro closes around 13045 and yen around 10519 and cable 18675-80...the uprer targets of that last paragraph will be seen monday..... the euro below 13055 over the week end is another proposition om nonday as the upper level in the last paragraph was achieved tonite....g/t

Plovdiv Gotin 16:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hi Anka/ And then 1.1110 in 20 days?

FRA Alpha Tango 16:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
1.30 locked!

Eilat Dolphin 16:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
cannes/ Right! I remember your post. Didn't I ask you a question you didn't aswear: if Boheme II was in the harbour ?
Is she ?

FRA Alpha Tango 16:01 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
short it! 1.3115 target locked, roger!

Roumeli anka 16:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
usdchf : This is the expected wave-5 . Maybe some ticks more but no many

cannes 15:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
cannes fr 16:21 GMT December 30, 2004
my suggestion for 2005 (ancient rule)
wen everybody like somthing (euro) sell it
when everybdy dislike somthing (us$) buy it

gold coast martin 15:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   


gold coast martin 02:41 GMT January 7, 2005
GOOD AFTERNOON/MORNING.....

Todays pre-nfp trading right up to 1 hour prior to nfp timeframe applies:.Mirror image trading of yesterday applies:

euro: resistance level 13218.....pre-nfp target 13086....use stop 13223
yen:resistance level 10447...pre-nfp target 10578... stop..10441

cable:resistance 18808....pre-nfp target 18668... stop...18814.

aud:res.level 7658...pre-nfp target 7536...stop....7658....
PLEASE NOTE:these positions must be exited 1 hour before nfp or when target reached...
The only way positions can be kept open post nfp is if targets are exceeded by more than 58 pips respectively...that will serve as buffer fot post data volatility until market direction is determined 15 minutes thereafter....In times of high volatility flows that are created 5 minutes before the data are virtually impossible to detect by my system....the above strategy depends on your level of patience and tolerance...
If in doubt adhere to this post for today and tonite as i have made it as simple as i can so no questions are constantly asked during high volatility.

An important factor to consider that may undermine the scenario above is:..As in the past 2 days and been a mirror image trading day,yen may reach the 10578 figures and challenge the 10634 level..if 10634 is breached ,yen will see 10715...in such a scenario it will be euro to below 13067..cable 18564..and aud 7447(which is a critical resistance level)...in such a scenario NFP data will only produce a shallow retracement provided it falls short of market expectations...if positive the same figures may become the closing figures.....
Good trades and mind your risk.........

I brought this out to best sum up tonite....the last paragraph is a guide......g/t

Amman wfakhoury 15:58 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
S1 1.3035
S2 1.3000

Halifax CB 15:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well San Diego - I have to admit I do enjoy this too, though my st models were completely wrong (but the long ones - especially Eurousd, are doing fine...). It's not often one gets a 300 pip whip in a few hours any more...

HK [email protected] 15:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
1.3035 is the big Q. now.

If that gives way, price may go to the 200Dma.

If no we may go to last year high.

Amman wfakhoury 15:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD will continue move down this hour

london steamer 15:55 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Martin
An end to a very good week.

Dallas GEP 15:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well so far a little dissapointed quite frankly, got out of my usd.jpy longs much too early at 104.21 and couldn't get some euros at 1.3077 earlier when they longed 30 pips up at the time.

austin edgy 15:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
good trading all. been a good morning. going for breakfast. til sunday

gold coast martin 15:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:49 GMT January 7, 2005
i frankly cannot see euro breaching 13008 tonite ,,,,,,,13045 may be it,,,,,yen 10489....but the lagging puppy aud 7534-43....g/t

Eilat Dolphin 15:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
martin 15:45/ Aren't the excesses 600 Ps in a week just as dangerous? Buying on such a washout should at least give rest time ?

San Diego bobl 15:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
This is a rare treat...positioned well and we get a Snow job...lol...moving stops to lock profits; dropping bids by 50 pips accross board...
trading metals and spoos also; all south...
it's a rare day when I appreciate treasury secretary comments

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viis, marty..TARGET PLEASE
revised or not

Eilat Dolphin 15:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
if I may remind the Eleventh Commandment of my Corpus Sinaïticus (on 4H):

"An exploding stick had no shade".

(Thus we shouldn't see 1.31 today.)

FRA Alpha Tango 15:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
yes I know but I love risk! seriouly, I 'll go short if the next open is below 1.3065 to get 1.3015

Spotforex NY 15:47 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
big difference in being an analyst and a 'trader'.....

Rockford BDR 15:47 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Just wanted to say thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you Marty for my 186 pips! Great advice for this newbie.

gold coast martin 15:45 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FRA Alpha Tango 15:42 GMT January 7, 2005
longing after 13060 is breached is dngerous.....

Spotforex NY 15:45 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I did not play what I wrote, but here was my observation a month back on GVI...

Spotforex NY 14:55 GMT December 5, 2004
upper channel on the EURO weekly charts appear to come into play at the 1.38 area......


FWIW
Since I have been comparing the euro move from .82 to current levels via the Dollar yen movement of '95-98

here are some og my longer term thoughts if anyone cares to hear them....

The dollar yen's first 'big retracement under Rubin's strong dollar policy came at the 127.50 level in Apr '97 (the euro also happen to retraced at a similar level - the lows 1.29s during Jan'04 and it proceeded to fall to 1.17

The second round of dollar yen retracement in jan '98 took place at the 135 area (where the euro is currently visiting) and the dollar yen pair fell to 1.22 shortly thereafter (5 weeks time)......

So will the euro act in a similar manner to the dollar boon phase of 95-98 in terms of price action....?????????????

We are visiting that area now in the euro and a lot of front page press is focued on the dollar......

but the early dollar yen corrections during the '95-98 bull run held the established weekly uptrend line and acelleration lines from my analysis from the inception of that dollar bull run.....

That same type of established euro weekly uptrend line was tested back in Aug '04 at the 1.20 level.....and the uptrend line is currently placed at the 1.23 neighborhood.

The point I am trying to make is that for whatever reason the dollar should pull back over the next 4-8 weeks time period - the 1.2400/500 area looks to be the place where euro bulls (dollar bears) would be licking their chops to re-enter the uptrend market...

and again the Fed acted in June '98 to slow down the dollar rise against the Yen (even though it wanted a 'strong' dollar).....Will the Fed step in again at similar number in the euro (even if they are seeking a softer dollar)......

just spot mumbling his thoughts here....

cerete colombia 15:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
thanks for your comments guys, sometimes it's good to be out when there is so much expectecions o should i call it histerya? (sorrry for my bad english)

Eilat Dolphin 15:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
We are out in uncharted territories on all time frames but weeklies. I love it! Contrarian, Magellanic!

gold coast martin 15:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:36 GMT January 7, 2005 ....we may challenge upper resistance levels again.....time permitting cause its friday....13068, 10478,7561 respectively....

FRA Alpha Tango 15:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
long at 1.3060 , no stop lol!

gold coast martin 15:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
fwiw....aud tonite is like a little puppy ...falling behind but always following its yen mummy.....got to joke....break the boredom

Halifax CB 15:40 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Didn't lose a cent; I followed my primary guideline - when in doubt, stay out. or discretion is the better part of valour. Better luck next time though cerete...

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Boca, maybe not because eur/gbp is shorting

gold coast martin 15:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
LOL..I DONT MIND IF THEY DONT WANT TO REST....

Eilat Dolphin 15:38 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Now.

Stockholm AGuy 15:38 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
cerete colombia 15:34 GMT:

Surely not. You're just the only one admitting to it.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
cerete colombia 15:34 GMT January 7, 2005
No you are not when you hear a winner here you can be sure there are 10 that have lost. This is not a 100-yard dash it is a marathon so hang in there and get ready for battle next week. GT

Halifax CB 15:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 14:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Sorry for the delay - - that's a good point. Maybe it's a hangover from his traingin in geophysics. OTOH, I lean much more towards accepting that regime changes happen frequently (again, like this morning); identifying these points numerically (for example through median filtering) or externally (we know when the NFP numbers come out) and then looking at the markets as a sum of his sort of functions but with the arguments (t-tcritical) allowed to be negative or positive. Hence the overall function becomes complex, in which case the real part would correspond to prices and the complex part to hmmmm, God? the invisible hand? the anti-market? Lol....Anyway, very preliminary work seemed to get ok results (e.g they stayed bounded) but I much prefer using correlations for now, since they are trivial to program and they give pretty plots & comprehensible (if often wrong) results...

Eilat Dolphin 15:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Yes. Ten Ps. Jumpin back within seconds.

B.A. BOCA 15:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
snow's comments are taken seriously? maybe a sentiment shift is occuring!

sterling needs to go under 87 to accelerate fall.

gl and nice calls..

gold coast martin 15:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
After laying in mud of 13114-13091 range....and yen 10445-31....aud 7592-7608....we may challenge upper resistance levels again.....time permitting cause its friday....13068, 10478,7561 respectively....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:35 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
There have been great calls this week in the FF and I congratulate all of the participants but remember this is only the first week of the year we have a long way to go. I hope we are as happy by the end of the year. GT

cerete colombia 15:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
am i the only one that has lost money with this terribles euro swings up and down?

Eilat Dolphin 15:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Flat. If the euro revisits its low or so, I'll "support" for sure, it's philosophical.

van Gecko 15:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
fx blood transfusion at its best..

Dallas GEP 15:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well tried to get 1.3077 twice long earlier, platform boys wouldn,t let me have it. LOL (price moved)

Dallas GEP 15:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
YEP VIIES is the MAN....great job

Jhb cd 15:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
...thanks martin, valdez and others for a most profitable afternoon. Yoiur timing has been immaculate. You da men. The weekend has started. Enjoy!

GOES B747 15:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 15:28 GMT // what is the ladder price ??
may you post the price target for this short ladder?

tia & gt

gold coast martin 15:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 15:29 GMT January 7, 2005

Very wise move...consolidative phase coming fo yen and euro.....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
With key support taken out for eur/usd pair now the focus is on the T/L support around the 3030-40 area.

San Diego bobl 15:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
some size to cover showing in euro

LDN SAM 15:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
What's going on in EUR/USD?

Eilat Dolphin 15:29 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viies/ Wait don't run like a thief! You f ... earned it!

San Diego bobl 15:29 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
covering more in aud/usd and eur/usd shorts...
leveling here for the moment...
1/3 size left with b/e stops
flatted jpy/usd

austin edgy 15:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
thanks gold coast martin!

Eilat Dolphin 15:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Juts went E long for a short ladder.

San Diego bobl 15:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin...
nailed it on aussy...great call

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
marty..I guess this answers my question about your short...dahhhhhhhhhhhhhh..LOL

FRA Alpha Tango 15:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 15:24 GMT January 7, 2005
Thank you Control Tower ;)

Tallinn viies 15:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
covered half 89.
Im out of here....
cu on monday.

Spotforex NY 15:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viies

I am hearing some good things about you!!!!

Thanks for making FF so informative!!!!

Makassar Alimin 15:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
LOL, the previous euro coiling has just shown the result, well done euro bears, letś welcome 1.30 handle and watch the lower bollinger band

gold coast martin 15:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
HELLO.....13068 NEXT......

Yen is the driver ...

houston st 15:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

oops, s/b compliments...

San Diego bobl 15:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Order flow stacking heavily on sell side both eur and gdp; should be some profit taking at these levels however...
i sure took some on this spike down

houston st 15:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
VIIES -- my complements...gl/gt

Tallinn viies 13:51 GMT January 7, 2005
1 hour and 10 minutes to go...
before 1,3110/15 seen

gold coast martin 15:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
13980=13080....

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
go Viis! Go Dolph! My platty froze..didn't enter..the lower this goes the better the long later.

Eilat Dolphin 15:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tango Alpha/ Hat off to you too, sir.

HK [email protected] 15:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FROM Y.day

HK [email protected] 18:38 GMT January 6, 2005
Hi to all;

My suspect for a medium term pivot point Euro, from the [1.3040,1.3110] range.

If euro goes below 1.3010, we have to reconsider all that idea above.
............................................................
A strong recoil may come from the [1.3100,1.3110] range so one has to watch out now

gold coast martin 15:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
MAN....LOVE THE AUSSIE,,,,, euro has res.at 13103....should yen continue momentum 13980 (one original target for today is achieved,,,,,).....g/t

San Diego bobl 15:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
covering partial aud/usd short...
THANK YOU marty

Eilat Dolphin 15:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viies/ I can't believe this !

Jhb cd 15:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Thank you John!

Eilat Dolphin 15:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Yes. Too bad hé! LOL

San Diego bobl 15:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
covering some usd/eur shorts here
1.3120

FRA Alpha Tango 15:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
here they are!

Jhb cd 15:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
John Snow on CNBC: We have said again and again our policy is a strong dollar.

gold coast martin 15:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Yens momentum as it has been a mirror image week(another term for trend is your friend) has got momentum to 10478 at least.....dragging euro into 13122 territory...for now...stay tuned for another report.....

Also when aud hits 7643 short again...it is in overshooting and lagging mode..all wrapped in 30 minure timeframes......

Tallinn viies 15:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 15:16 GMT January 7 - no no, just doing opposite what corporate accountants and financial people are doing :)
easy I must say

Tallinn viies 15:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
will buy when stop-hunt force gives better levels.
1,3080/90 first important level where demand will be bigger than supply

Eilat Dolphin 15:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Viies must be connected to some Viking Goddess that's worth worshipping eyes wide open.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:15 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin..did you close? Is this a base-bounce? For now anyway?
GEPster..whacha gonna do boy?

FRA Alpha Tango 15:15 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Where are de G'D stops?.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:13 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
actually I shorted twice, 2nd entry failed..platty froze.

Makati Obelix 15:12 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Anyone experiencing downtime w/ censored right now?

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:12 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
closed at 3156

New York JT 15:11 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT January 7, 2005
Closed usd/jpy longs


How about some numbers?

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viis, martin, where's your target AT THIS TIME?

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Actually marty, with your excellent money flow connections, to tell you the truth I trust your posts. Of course, you are human..gotta give you a little leeway there, naturally.

Viis, I shorted with you. All I can say is you are spooky. But correct! (and not the first time either.) Good post amigo..and I want to buy that watch!

Eilat Dolphin 15:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I am up to the surface for some air.

Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Closed usd/jpy longs

gold coast martin 15:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

There is the signal...refer to my post for targets......time may not be on our side ....been friday and all...g/t

Eilat Dolphin 15:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viies/ That was a Minuteman Call!

New York JT 15:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:35 GMT January 7, 2005
LOnged usd/jpy at market

How about some numbers?

FRA Alpha Tango 15:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Crash!

gold coast martin 15:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AUD down to 7628 as posted, more downside ecpected in next 45 minutes...sorry about numerous posts but this 15 minute trading necessitates it to provide info.....

San Diego bobl 15:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin...
nice call on euro lead with aud follow...very nice

San Diego bobl 15:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
sold eur/usd...some size sellers came in; split fills however average 1.3180

hong kong nt 15:03 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
seems market may use "boredom" to get rid of those without enough patience? guess 1.315-1.330 may work for few more days, narrow range consolidation may imply lower IV, thinking if straddle at 1.315 may work...

gold coast martin 15:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Waiting for confirmation signal of my original targets fom my first post this morning.....let you know shortly.......fwiw...

San Diego bobl 14:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...
I run market tickers for majors that filters out all orders < 20 futures contracts (retail trade); currently executed order flow seems absolutely split between buyers/sellers in euro @ 1.3200 and jpy @ 104; consensus...a battle in the works

Chicago Irish 14:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
It's bad enough that the English language is being assailed by American English but now I see Valdez is attempting to do the same to French.......Mon Dieu,c'est deja vu all over again (With apologies to Yogi Berra)

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 14:53 GMT January 7, 2005//No problem amigo, I hope for your and Dolphin's sake your system matches reality. Darned reality, anyhow! LOL

london tony 14:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
i do feel cable and euro will close higher tan this

Bahrain within 10 pips 14:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
1/7/2005 13:30
Dow Long point

NoVa Lurker 14:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
tony, not for today. it comes as the IMM and most US banks are finishing up their trading week. cpecs might play it however.

Tallinn viies 14:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:48 - just watch. 9 minutes to go. it moves then.
I maybe wrong and it goes up but my analyses shows down and lot

london tony 14:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
consumer credits is of any importance?

San Diego bobl 14:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
usd/aud...like the shorting idea; all shadows above 7650...
ty

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Thanks for your response marty. It takes guts to post moves in these times, no crystal balls, just regular ones. Thanks GEP for all your slick posts last 12 hrs too.

Dallas GEP 14:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
GBP pipped down pretty good...dollar bulls seem to be making their play. Dollar bears will try to answer back at these levels

Stockholm AGuy 14:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB 14:20 GMT: "I think that's the sort of move he should have been working on - and his work should be extended to - rather than end of the world scenarios."

There was a problem with his stock market projections which was obvious from the start, just by inspecting the log-periodic ansatz: it could never turn. The trend direction was set, with those oscillations about it getting wilder up to a singularity. So by construction, it had to fail at some point, and the smartest thing one could do with it was what he started doing last fall, i.e. track the deviations between projections and actual prices. When those errors started rising in a consistent way, it was a valid signal that the (anti)bubble had ended.

Eilat Dolphin 14:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
A straw broke the burro's back ?

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tallin viis, no, it is because the news wasn't radical..it's "vous ja de", the opposite of "de ja vous"..it never happened. George Carlin.

The news spikes were well within the range of the session..the last two sessions for that matter. High Low for this session is 3252-3161 thus far by Intellichart. Right now we are almost exactly in mid range meaning it is difficult to say what's gonna happen. Just range up down. Nice short Dolphin!

FRA Alpha Tango 14:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
yep Martin...and euro is attempting to break 1.32 again. The hourly chart looks bad and suggest a break. So 1.3155 seems to be on the menu

Dallas GEP 14:47 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
OK stochs and macds are DOWN on usd/jpy but doji's on the candles suggest that usd/jpy could turn north Also based on the current LEVEL of usd/jpy, that gives some support to longs as well. But as usual FX is never black and white, it is gray LOL

gold coast martin 14:45 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 14:41 GMT January 7, 2005
Got your email via QUITO...thank you very much love to hear and exchange views.....g/t
fwiw....aud at 7650 is good short value...when euro sub 13197....aud to 7628..has habit of falling off cliffs in volatile trading scenatios.....g/t

Hong Kong Qindex 14:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:41 GMT January 7, 2005
EUR/USD : As shown in my weekly cycle charts, the key quantized level at 1.3328 is trying to exert its effect on the market. In other words 1.3328 is acting like a "super magnet".


... // 1.3169 - 1.3232 - 1.3248 - {1.3328} // ...

gold coast martin 14:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:35 GMT January 7, 2005
..LOOK AT THE TICKER.....in short NO.......a breach of 13231 will change my mind for ...1 hour ..lol...after i which i will re-enter....SHORT.....euro has got no upward impetus...no flows to drive it......when yen breaches 10409.....euro will breach 13197.....my view ...for now......choppy market.....

San Diego bobl 14:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin...
Thank you very much; I will put that level line on my charts and watch carefully. Still a battle @ 104...
did you get email yesterday?

Halifax CB 14:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Ny - if your forexNS service is so great, why are you using a free hosting service to promote your work? And why are we only seeing supposed results, and not forward estimates (which are much more indicative of capability...). What generates your strategy? Not to rag you, it's just that this board is one of the last refuges from the world of spam and hokem...

London NR 14:40 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez
Thanx for the heads up, appreciated. GL GT

Tallinn viies 14:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
seems too many stradddles bought?

hong kong nt 14:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR/JPY -- ST supp 137Q. FWIW...

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:38 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
London NR 14:33 GMT January 7, 2005 The spikes an hour ago were from a U.S. economic news release. other than that my two charting companies have not printed a spike. I use 5 minute charts as a noise filter however.

Eilat Dolphin 14:38 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Bad ones I hope, just shorted the E.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
My 2 cents worth on the Usd/jpy pair is that the key support is around the 103.70-80 area but with intraday indicators heading south the momentum is with the bears at this time to at least test if not break the support. Daily indicators are mixed but this pair has not broken the mid bearish trend yet IMHO. GT

gold coast martin 14:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 14:30 GMT January 7, 2005
....JPY resistance at 10377 getting stronger and stronger by every 15 minute cycle...just a flow related observation....fwiw...

Dallas GEP 14:35 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
LOnged usd/jpy at market

GOES B747 14:35 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 14:34 GMT // sure, Alan Trichet will bring the news out :)

gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:35 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well, it's been one hour since the news hit. I'm not sharpshooting anyone, please. Marty, my respected friend, has your opinion changed on the E/$ short or not? Great call on the mirror image action (opposite action) of today's Asian session from previous day.

Aside from that, since the news was indeed positive on nfp from previous nfp and if the mkt obeys funnymentals then we should short a little..not radically because the news was not radical. Again, mkt makers perform their magic in the shadows...and they have no intention of obeying OUR logic as traders. We have seen this countless times. Market is not determined by our logic. Money moves are done so that the big money makes money, not out of convenience to us. Any win for us is purely coincidental albeit calculated.

Eilat Dolphin 14:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
E/$ is going flat electrocardiogram. It stopped beating.
Are them both going to merge or something?

London NR 14:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Would some be good enough to fill me in about what might have caused those huge spikes just now?
I was doing quite well until they butted in lol.

Makassar Alimin 14:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
looks like euro is coiling up for something

Bahrain within 10 pips 14:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Longing the euro at the end of the session...
around 1.3120 to keep through the weekend --->1.37

austin edgy 14:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
austin rb

me transplant- 6 yrs. love the place. originally a canuck (cdn)
good trading.

San Diego bobl 14:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
will add to short usd/jpy IF we get 2-hr close below 104 from the NFP data (one hour from now)

ny 14:29 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
http://forexns.tripod.com/

http://forexns.tripod.com/

SEE NOW

austin edgy 14:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
longing jpy- 103.90 sl 103.75, pt 104.9

Austin rb 14:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
austin edgy

texan since 1970 Ft worth, Corpus Christi, now Austin for last 4 years

gold coast martin 14:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT January 7, 2005
usd.jpy on strong support at 103.85
Correct.....any JPY long can rely on 10377 LEVEL TO hold and privide bounce for the yen......g/t

NoVa Lurker 14:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Given the price action we have seen this week, it would not be surprising to see further volatility and spikes into and after the EX close and also at and after the NY/IMM close at 1500 ET.

Bahrain Within 10 pips 14:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hello guys I think the dow will drop from the start...
Cad...Longing at 1.2223 till the end of the session

Mumbai Jay 14:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
USD cannot make a big advance until we know the latest Trade Balance next week..3150*3260 rge. tonite IMHO

austin edgy 14:24 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Austin rb

yw- in the lone star state i see. newbie or long term res

Halifax CB 14:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Stockholm - if you are still around, check out the chart of the Eurousd pair from 16:30 yesterday to the NFB numbers - that looks to me like a real "sornette" wave (for lack of a better word); after which we seem to be in the predictable decaying oscillation period (clearer on the 5 minutes, for example). I think that's the sort of move he should have been working on - and his work should be extended to - rather than end of the world scenarios....Maybe something to do this weekend :)

Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
usd.jpy on strong support at 103.85

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Austin// Yes. Short means sell the 2nd of the pair using the 1st of the pair to do it with, long means to buy the 1st of the pair using the second of the pair to do it with. When a chart longs, it goes north or up..when a chart shorts it goes south or down.

Frankly this news release was about neutral as I had sort of expected..leaning slightly positive from previous nfp so really nothing has changed. Just because it didn't fit the "street" expectations isn't much to concern oneself. This event was hyped SO MUCH by everyone because we are supposedly in a thin market where small events make some larger than normal differences. Sometimes. It is sporatic at best. And it is no surprise to me at all that it was a non event..surprised to event occurring more or less within the range of the session. If today however is a pivot it isn't because of the nfp, it is because market makers (what we call mistakingly "the market") want it so.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 05:32 GMT January 5, 2005
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.3328. The neutral zone is 1.3248 - 1.3407. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.3232 - 1.3248. A projected resistant level is located at 1.710 - 1.3725. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position when the market is trading below 1.3487)


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.3089* - 1.3169 - 1.3248 // {1.3328} - 1.3407* - 1.3487 - 1.3566* - 1.3646 - 1.3725 // 1.3805 - 1.3884* ...


Curve B : ... 1.3041* - 1.3137 - 1.3232 // {1.3328} - 1.3423* - 1.3519 - 1.3614* - 1.3710 // 1.3805* ...


Curve C : ... 1.2692* - 1.2851 // 1.3010 - 1.3169 - {1.3328}* - 1.3487 - 1.3646 // 1.3805 - 1.3964* ...


Austin rb 14:18 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
austin edgy

thanks did not know if goldcoast was a pure one currency trader or did pairs and which ones hwas referring to evidently all goldcoast are usd pair as opposed to other

GOES B747 14:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR/GBP: may you help with high/low for today?

tia & gt

Hong Kong Qindex 14:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : If the market can overcome the projected resistant area at 1.3241 - 1.3280, the next targeting point is 1.3373. The mid-point reference between 1.3241 - 1.3373 is 1.3307.

Dallas GEP 14:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
If entering possies enter light get profit and get out

austin edgy 14:14 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
yup- shorting the pair -selling the eur

San Diego bobl 14:13 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez...
very interesting and compelling post; want to reread it a couple times with charts in front of me (life of euro) and correlate.
btw...did you get my email yesterday with attachments? gold coast martin?

Tallinn viies 14:13 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:05 GMT - casio for weaks. real man use citizen :)

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
OKI Looks io me that sell usd on retracements is best for now

Austin rb 14:11 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Goldcoast or anyone else

so shorting euro earlier at 13191 was selling the eur/usd pair?

Surabaya Medallion 14:11 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Maybe Bernanke can say something to help USD?

Halifax CB 14:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Graphs updated. Peculiar.....

FRA Alpha Tango 14:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 14:02 GMT January 7, 2005
I'm short on euro at 1.3216 expecting a top at 1.3240, targetting new weekly lows
10 000 with you!

San Diego bobl 14:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
OK...this is a very unsure time IMHO; my system showing a very rare disparity...
I have a weekly and daily signal producing mechanisms based on mathmatical derivatives of market price action. At this moment, all major pairs are mixed, i.e. weekly sell, daily buy. When this does happen, it signifies that the markets are in a state of flux, or transition. Usually that means a significant move is coming, but it does not suggest direction. I may have an opinion, however, I trust my system and rely on that for income. It is telling me now to play hit and run if at all...
the big picture is tainted right now, and I do not believe it is clear at all as to where we go from here. The trade is mixed, and may look substantially different in the weeks and months ahead. Just my humble take.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:51 GMT January 7, 2005
Fantastic how you can peg the future so accurately..should we call you Dr. Who? I need to buy your watch..don't tell me it's a $19 Casio, you'll bust my bubble.

Actually, technically, the E/$ could see anything from more dive..to 1.29 or it could say enough is enough and retrace to 1.34 to 1.36. These "peak fall" patterns involve anywhere from 300-700 pips. 1.3650-700=1.2950 for the extreme.

Then, after retracement to original or close to original highs, within 10 days it goes back down about the same amount as the first dip..then back up. There are from three to six of these up down cycles before a 1-2 month trend change occurs. Just pointing out chartly stuff.

I think we will have one more such peak as what started in late fall of this year to present after this peak subsides that we are on now. That takes us into second quarter for the next and last big peak formation to occur. The big soothsayers are now spouting this but it's been my model for 1 year. After that peak, seeing at least 1.40 E/$, then for the next 2.5 years we should see dollar EVALUATION to parity with Euro. The EU has growing pains, the USD does not. Things always always cycle.

Eilat Dolphin 14:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FYI, the Sexydane hardened on the euro up to 41, for, well, for the average culmination process.

Ldn 14:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
The headline jobs number always grabs market attention - helping to explain reactions seen in USD and Tsys. But looking more broadly, this is in fact more encouraging than it seems. "Yes, the headline number was a disappointment from expectations by 18k jobs, but the average absolute miss from expectations is 78k, so this is a statistically insignificant miss," notes Greg Anderson, forex strategist at ABN Amro. The revision to the prior two months also adds another 34K jobs. "If the forex market moves today, it is because there is something else going on, not because of the number

NoVa Lurker 14:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
ROTFLMA - talk about platforms, I have a demo open on one for laughs/testing/evaluation purposes and had a resting order to sell EURUSD @13287. It was filled. My actual real account showed a spike to only 13245 (where I had a resting order to sell at 13262).

Won't mention names but the strange trade was on a very popular platform.

Budapest Daniel 14:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Alpha Tango Echo: Orders are filled, mission seems to be losing at te moment :) Wilco

gold coast martin 14:01 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AUSTIN....longing yen means buying USD AND SELLING JPY..

FRA Alpha Tango 14:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Buy dollars guys!!!

Austin rb 13:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast

When you say long yen are you shorting usd/yen or longing the pair new here and confused as to your reference thanks

ny amc 13:58 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast.........Can you explain in what way about GBP. Thanks and I value your posts over here. Thanks

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:58 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
B.A. BOCA 13:52 GMT January 7, 2005
Thanks for the advise no one else has said anything about it but I agree with you 100%. It is ridiculous what they are doing they have a license to steal IMHO. GT

Atlanta-South 13:58 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
If trading with these brokers as mention, stay flat during these times, because its their game & they always have control of the ball. Times like now are their chance to do what they please. GOLDEN RULE - "HE WHO HAS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULE".

gold coast martin 13:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...gbp is leading indicator in this move of the last 30 minutes...g/t

San Diego bobl 13:55 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Trade platforms and data feeds become very unreliable during fast markets. A lot of experienced traders don't mess with the trade in a fast market, other than core positions. On the other hand, some very skilled traders can take advantage of the big swings...however, these are professionals, and unless you consider yourself in that category, fast markets are better to witness than trade.

We'll have a clue in a bit...

That said, I like usd/jpy short, but I won't know how well that does until the line of demarcation, i.e. 104...is settled +/-

gold coast martin 13:55 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 13:54 GMT January 7, 2005
timefame=20 minutes...g/t

Budapest Daniel 13:55 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tallin that would be more than hyper for me at the moment... I'm near to be stopped out :)

gold coast martin 13:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
FWIW... 30 minute euro yen correlation pair suggests yen to trade up to 10450 while euro trade at 13197 ....cable already there.....long yen again @ 10394 ..t/p 10450 stop..10377...g/t

B.A. BOCA 13:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
i have been watching a couple of these brokers recently, and every big data release the retail brokers are licking their fingers... they can basically print anything they want, and excuse it to 'extreme volatility'...getting every stop from here to katmandu.

if you have to trade with these jokers, then suggest not to do it in times like this. GL

Halifax CB 13:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
San Diego - thanks - if you use the archives and get posts of mine for Jan 6 2005 around 0300-0400 GMT, all will be revealed (lol...). I'll write it up on the site once it is actually working consistently.

Tallinn viies 13:51 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
1 hour and 10 minutes to go...
before 1,3110/15 seen

Eilat Dolphin 13:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
JPY is zeroing boom.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I might add that technicals are not going to deliver accurate results this next hour. Nor systems. A human factor is at play..called panic..not included in the math of the technicals.

3 year charts in 1 day increments best show patterns...repetition in the big picture...IF repetition is applicable now then eventually in the next week expect E/$ to gain to Christmas values of 1.34-1.36. Why? After a "peak-fall pattern" that we've just seen since late December to now, it is never more than a day or two before retracement UP is seen. Acutally, that puts us to see 1.36 SOON..but rember in this soothsaying, that's IF repitition is of value here. IF.

Kaunas DP 13:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
so...after all said and done...eur/usd ready for 1.3 test...hope it will come out next week...GL ALL

ny amc 13:47 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Just for the censored of it I tried to trade the number today for the first time ever. Wow is all I can say. The platform for some reason froze up alot on me. Hmmm........ Oh well , lesson learned.

sydney.. 13:47 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
B.A. BOCA 13:44 - yes one has 1.3323..

HK Kevin 13:46 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
The initial action of the market with EUR traded down to 1.3160, then quickly rebound to 1.3240. It favours a buy below 1.32 level. Another scanario is EUR may trade btw 1.3180 and 1.3240 for a few hrs before testing 1.3280.

Ldn 13:46 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Non-farm payrolls grew by 157,000 last month after an upwardly revised 137,000-increase in November, the Labor Department said Friday. Department revisions showed 34,000 additional jobs were created in November and October than earlier believed

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:45 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
$ bleeding coming up on eur/usd pair if 3250-60 resistance is taken out. Watch out for the spikes the bucket shops put up to shake the weaker stops out. GT

Eilat Dolphin 13:45 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ Hi Tradererectus, this one is lying down too. More fun to see the wrestlers away from the blood spills.

Ldn 13:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
US Nov Payrolls Revised To +137K From +112K

B.A. BOCA 13:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
the printed high on eur i see on some of the retail platforms is ridiculous...

i have 3249 on reuters..

Halifax CB 13:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Re. Sornette = I think his basic idea is sound, but he missed the point that the markets are reflexive (in Soros' sense) - so that predictability becomes self defeating. I also think that he should have approched this - especially the currency markets - from the micro rather than macro scale; i.e that these shocks of his are contnually happening but are getting dissipated through the financial equivalent of friction...from a modelling POV, one of the approaches I've looked at is using a large # of critical times (rather than one), and working in complex ( rather than just real) space. But I won't fill the board with this stuff (I realize for most it's of little interest, being of little practical value...).
FWIW - as I'm typing I'm watching the numbers, interesting. Glad to be typing rather than trading this am....

Eilat Dolphin 13:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well, now, I do see...

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
1. If very big money is in this game right now, they have already made their plans some time ago as to what direction the USD will go. This is an "excuse" to start the movement. The chart will go the direction it would have ordinarily because the news was basically neutral..expected number and real have nothing to do with each other.

I AM FLAT until later. Wait 1 hour to be sure what's happening and this has nothing to dowith long run.

Eilat Dolphin 13:38 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
A-greed. I still don't see the $ bleeding this AM.

GOES B747 13:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
alimin,

great call regarding the pips range ... you must know more than most of us ...

gt

Stockholm AGuy 13:35 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 13:31 GMT:

But below expectations. Market reaction looks confused - ful of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:35 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Consensus was between 175-200k and 157k was the number that came out. The shakedown has begun. GT

Tallinn viies 13:35 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
reaction to the data not bad.
moved take profit order to stop-buy 1,3259

gold coast martin 13:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
SHORTING ....EURO 13191....YEN 10455///CABLE 18872.......T/P AND STOPS POST LATER.........

GOES B747 13:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
good afternoon to all,

was some happy seconds for the cleaners ...

gt gl all

Budapest Daniel 13:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
woohoo very crazy movements

San Diego bobl 13:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Interesting...
gold pops; US rates fall (bonds/notes pop); S & P pops...
when is the last time you saw that?

ny amc 13:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
plus 157k

Eilat Dolphin 13:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
157 RATHER GOOD

Eilat Dolphin 13:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
157 RATHER GOOD

San Diego bobl 13:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Halifax...
just looked at your chart; can you interpret bottom for us; cool picture, just don't have a clue what it meant???

San Diego bobl 13:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Number coming out in a few minutes...
personally, I am absolute flat, and will be until the noise, dust settles after what may be another whippy trade

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
iran hamid 13:15 GMT January 7, 2005
DON'T WE ALL. DON'T WE ALL.

B.A. BOCA 13:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
iran hamid // depends a bit on the number, dont you think?

Kaunas DP 13:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
iran hamid 13:15 GMT January 7, 2005
GBP/USD will shoot UP

iran hamid 13:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I mean Which currancy will raise more?

Halifax CB 13:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 13:05 GMT January 7, 2005 No problem - I put my response over on the Help forum.

iran hamid 13:15 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hi all.

I want to know which currancy($/?) will raise after nonfarm payroll?

Eilat Dolphin 13:14 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AGUY/ At least their name was good: "sornette", in French means "rubbish", or "story not true"...

FRA Alpha Tango 13:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold has broken its uptrend

Stockholm AGuy 13:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:00 GMT:

Halifax, may I ask which quote source you're using to produce your charts? I'm interested in playing a bit myself. BTW, did you notice that Sornette finally called it a day and stopped publishing his log-periodic stock market projections? "More than two years have passed and our projections for the US market have not been verified". Now he tells us. ;^)

Halifax CB 13:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Thanks GVI. You guys are fast.

Amman wfakhoury 13:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
As I predicted..EUR/USD moved down 10 pips during last hour

Halifax CB 13:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Sorry for the f*k up, many apologies. hope Jay can clean it without too much problem. I lost a quote mark, which trashed everything else.
it's here. The other lost part is that I don't trade it around big numbers, and this simply seems to indicate a mild return followed by trading in a +/- 75 pip band, or a steep dive.

FRA Alpha Tango 13:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Euro gave a sell signal for 1.3155

Halifax CB 12:55 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
With the just done dive on USDCAD, I thought I'd refresh my cad chart; I've put it here What it seems to indicate is a bit of a recovery over the next little while by USDCAD, followed either by a slowish return to current levels and trading in a +/-75p band, or a dive much lower. I'm not trading this at all (I don't trade alround big releases); I'm just curious as to how accurate this will be. (With my luck, USDCAD will jump to 1.25...). Hope everyone is well positioned for the numbers at 13:30.

Amman wfakhoury 12:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
It moved 7-8 pips only as market awaiting NFP

Tallinn viies 12:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
NYC started and euro slips again.
I still convinced wash-out not done yet. as long as 1,3300/10 conatins market wants to see panic.
moved my order a bit.
take profit half at 1,3089. close all and turn to long at 1,3044.
although I still believe 1,2950 is possible during this month Im ready to build up long euro position from that area...
selling in front of 1,3280/85 (previous day high) with stop and reverse at 1,3315 still good plan

gold coast martin 12:45 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 12:37 GMT January 7, 2005
G/L with it...

bkk david 12:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
London
I set establish long eurusd at 1.3210, stop 1.3117
Target 1.3850-1.3930 have to be reached.
By elliot wave technique.

I am thinking about cycle of sp500, gold and eurusd.
Now, it is time to allos usd weakening sharply further

Tallinn viies 12:29 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
ok, one day I,ll do that

Syd 12:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Employment out 13.30 GMT yes

Global-View 12:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tallin, you can take a trial but this offer is a one shot deal.

la fxt 12:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hi all!

Tallinn viies 12:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Global-View SZpecial Offer 11:30 GMT - last or the last last?

sad you dont offer trial before the special offer.
couple of years ago gen dk was very good, would like to know how does it works today

QC WC 12:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Amman, yes so how will the Euro move this hour?

Amman wfakhoury 12:12 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
QC
it is now 12 GMT

Toronto YV 12:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
December 2004

Employment increased by an estimated 34,000 in December, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.3 percentage points to 7.0%, the lowest since May 2001. Following a slow start early in the year, employment picked up momentum in the second quarter and over the last four months of 2004.
StatCanada.

QC WC 11:58 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Amman, how abt from 12GMT onwards?

Los Angeles ss 11:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
wfakhoury Thank you!

amman wfakhoury 11:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD will move down this hour

Amman wfakhoury 11:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I gave my predit each hour on 00

Los Angeles ss 11:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
wfakhoury, nice call on Euro. What do you see it doing for the next hour?

Amman wfakhoury 11:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Amman Fakhtani
s1 13225
s2 13212
s3 13202

Amman wfakhoury 11:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
As I predicted EUR/USD moved down 25 pips this hour

Global-View SZpecial Offer 11:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

LAST CALL! Gendk and QIndex: Special Half Price Offer:
Global-View is offering a special New Years 1/2 price offer for the Gendk and/or Qindex forex services. The price is just $262.50 for January-March, 1/2 off the usual price. This offer is open to all but current subscribers.

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Amman wfakhoury 11:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
As you see EUR/USD moved down 14 pips

Surabaya Medallion 11:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Even though Europe has bad economy, but at least the deficit is not as bad as U.S. Right now, my position is still Dollar Bearish but then I can't ignore the Dollar Bull too which is why my position is 50-50 AUD-USD. Yes, AUD is a bitch which is usually bearish for these past 4 weeks, but only now become slightly Bullish.

Makassar Alimin 11:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
tricky part here for euro is we still have lower bolinger band waiting around 1.3070 area and if successful attempt is achieved on crossing 50 MA daily again, then we would go down...from euro bears point of view, 1.30 handle is surely very tempting at the moment

Syd 11:17 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD Large 0.7620 Expiry Today

Syd 11:14 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
If Europe was a patient it would be on life support now in the E.R.

Euro-zone retail sales stagnated in November, dashing hopes that a tentative recovery in consumer spending had begun as the year drew to a close.

Amman wfakhoury 11:13 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I normally act for 10-15 pips each hour

Syd 11:11 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
German Nov Mfg Orders Adj Slump 2.3% On Month
Nov Mfg Orders: Foreign Orders Adj -1.9% On Mo
Mfg Orders: Domestic Orders Adj -2.7% On Mo
Baaaaaaaaaad

Amman wfakhoury 11:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Fakhtani
S1 13225

Amman fakhatni 11:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
amman wfakhouri, how could you know any support to yr idea?

hong kong nt 10:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 10:49 -- agree, likely to see 200-pip range today..

amman wfakhoury 10:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
eur/usd will move down during this hour

Makassar Alimin 10:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
we might see euro 1.3360/70 traded tonight, IMHO

hong kong nt 10:46 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
If NFP is inline with expectation (eg 150-180k), it may mean sell on fact. If NFP is worse than expectation (eg <120k), it may mean a sell without second thought. Only >210 may produce surprise and bring new USD highs...

Tallinn viies 10:29 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 10:26 GMT - after due ongoing position resizing at the mom

gold coast martin 10:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Fwiw...flows in last hour indicate purely speculative positioning in anticipation of a weaker nfp figure....should euro trade to 13288 level,yen to 10376 and cable to 18877( which are all old resistance levels of earlier on in the week),...then even in the event of a weak nfp figure the wekness would have already been build in,and there will be no futher upward movement past these levels....market would just consolidate back to 13221,10435 and 18745 respectively.....should data is positive and the above pairs are trading at above levels then a the targets of this mornings post will be within reach..which will constitute a 150+ pip movement downward.......will enter short positions if 13288 ,10376 and 18877 are seen before the data....thats my strategy for rest of tonites session.....g/t

Bcn FXstreet.com 10:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil closed around the $45.25 level, while US Dow Jones Index holds below the 10.630 level. According to AFX News, China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, promised mesures to develop domestic stock market. In Australia, november retail sales rose 0,1% from october to 16.5131 bln AUD$, and were up around 2% year-on-year. Check out Latest Forex News section to review full overnight econmic stories.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3225 level. As stated in the previous report of january 5th, the possibility of a recover by the majors against the USD, supported by intraday indicator signals was moderately probable. After hitting a new 4-week low, the Euro is currently following those indicator alerts and trading above the 1.32 level, ahead of the key NFP data, due out in about 4 hours time. Since that news is a “super” market mover, one would consider staying aside and watch price action after it is released. Not much more to add, in a daily-basis analysis, so we’ll wait after today’s trading session gives us some future clues.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is negative on the pair (since december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair), while Indicators watch-level 2: is negative too (same date).

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8815 level, behaving like the other majors against the greenback, that is, gaining some ground after its yesterday's lows. Technically its intraday indicators (at least the ones that I carefully watch), presented the same patterm Euro did, therefore a raise and the gain of some ground was well on cards.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: holds a negative bias (from dec, 21, 2004) for the pair and Indicators watch-level 2: holds that bias, too (around late december, 2004), but it has began to show some divergence between the 2 watched indicators.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1700 level. It is reacting to its negative indicators momentum in intraday timeframes (as expected, like the other majors), but still holding above the neckline of the daily double-bottom that seems to be forming. With today’s key data we’ll see if such double-bottom is here to stay or just gone.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is strong bullish (since december 30, 2004) on the pair, while Indicators watch-level 2: is now bullish (since january, 4, 2005), ), but it has began to show some divergence between the 2 watched indicators.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7030 level. The pair is, in any case, inside the uptrend channel (whatever lines you choose for drawing it), but it is somewhat indecisive and loosing momentum, so its future outlook (short term) is not very clear.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is bullish on the pair, but it continues to loose momentum, while Indicators Wacth-level 2 : is neutral-bearish now, with more clear signals now.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).

**Next report : European Forex Session Wrap-up, around 16:30h GMT.**

Los Angeles ss 10:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
viies -- your target on eur/usd, before or after the nfp data release?

Tallinn viies 10:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
yesterdays high at 1,3280/85 should contain this move up.
suggesting to sell for intraday pip hunt and stop reverse over 1,3315. target still 1,3110/15 today
imho of course

Hong Kong Qindex 10:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative buying will increase when the market is trading above 1.3241.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:51 GMT January 7, 2005
USD/JPY : It is likely that the market has reached its weekly high.


Hong Kong Qindex 11:29 GMT January 5, 2005
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : Two common factors are located in this series, namely 101.65 and 105.24 and the mid-point reference is 103.45. The neutral zone of my weekly cycle is 102.45 - 103.24 and the mid-point reference is 102.45. A projected resistant point is located at 105.24. A projected supporting point is expected at 101.65 (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a long position if the market is trading above 103.45).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 100.94 // {101.65}* - 102.36 - 103.09 - 103.81 - 104.52* - {105.24} // 105.95 - 106.67 - 107.39* ...


Curve B : ... 101.14 // {101.65}* - 102.17 - 102.68 - 103.19 - 103.70* - 104.21 - 104.72 - {105.24} // 105.75 ...


Curve C : ... 101.26 // {101.65}* - 102.05 - 102.45 - 102.85 - 103.24* - 103.64 - 104.04 - 104.44 - 104.83* - {105.24} // 105.63 - 106.03 - 106.42 ...

shanghai bc 10:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

QINDEX-- Happy new year..Good trades and forecasts in the new year.

Los Angeles ss 10:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Thanks, Q.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 09:28 GMT - EUR/USD : I guess we may see the weekly low already.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:03 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Kowloon BH 09:32 GMT - See you on Monday.

Eilat Dolphin 10:01 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Technical Analysis/paranoïa: So the euro finally prints my yesterday's announced target... it's just that I hit the silk thinking that the plane was on fire, while it was only the rising sun's glare over the Tower of London...

But that spike is normal, as the E/$ snake tends to crawls in ambush into the middle of the 4 hours Mid Atlantic Ridge before he digests the New Workers.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:01 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc 09:52 GMT - Happy New Year!


EUR/USD : I am expecting the market will vibrate around {1.3280} with an expected magnitude of +/- 124 pips, i.e. 1.3157 - 1.3280 - 1.3404

shanghai bc 09:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

last year,MS currency team were betting we saw the high of Euro in Spring at 1.29 and would never see 1.25 again last year..Again, the past record is not the guarrantee for the future..

Ldn 09:52 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Nothing To Stop US Payrolls Above +200K

With the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls due 1330 GMT, WestLB says nothing's speaking against an above 200K increase. Notes strong non-mfg ISM employment component, GDP growth, little labor productivity growth speak for stronger number. "More output requires more labor input," bank says

Kowloon BH 09:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
nt, count me in. Dr Q see you there. g/l g/t for later data release.

Los Angeles ss 09:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Q -- reference in regard to what? Do you feel it will revisit that level prior to the NFP release??

gold coast martin 09:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
fwiw....stopped out of 3 positions but no big deal...the resistance levels that held for nearly 7 hours were used to trade the flows towards those numbers from lower achieved levels...overall,this method more than covered for the stops...

..STILL feel the general direction flow is still towards the published target of this morning....may re-enter while still have time before NFP....Will post in 20 minutes after doing a flow analysis....g/t

Hong Kong Qindex 09:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt 09:13 GMT - EUR/USD : The low in the last New York session could be an important reference.

Eilat Dolphin 09:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
ta/ The gold un-rush...

Sydney 09:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
dont know what happened there

Sydney 09:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
U.S. Payrolls Probably Rose 175,000 in December, Survey Shows

Los Angeles Byron 09:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt 09:13 // Please bring my best regard to Dr.Q at Monday night... still missing last year's gathering!

Hong Kong Qindex 09:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt 09:13 GMT - I am free on Monday night.

hong kong nt 09:18 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Singapore 09:00 -- what is jubb stop? thx

Tel Aviv ta 09:13 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tks JHB, but not only $/strength, zar also sharply down on any cross.

hong kong nt 09:13 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:10 -- how about having a local gathering on next Monday?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:58 GMT - The one inside {xxx} is reserved in my system for key quantized level. This is an old reference but it is still valid for this week. Remind me to tell you how to interpret this equation in our next gathering.

JHB CDB 09:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Tel Aviv

$ strength

Syd 09:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Thought this may be of interest to some Traders..not sure if I totally agree with their view

Go short AUD, NZD, GBP vs USD and EUR basket (50% each) this year, writes Morgan Stanley; says these 3 overvalued as no longer trading on fundamentals but rising mostly due to broader USD fall. Says these only non-US G10 currencies whose economies running current account deficits; adds their property markets and/or fundamentals suggest domestic cyclical factors will be FX-negative when structural US concerns abate;

Tel Aviv ta 09:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
anybody can tell why $/Zar is up 10% in one week?

Singapore 09:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:32 GMT January 7, 2005
trolling for fishes? 1.299 is a jubb stop

hong kong nt 08:58 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:43 -- the number inside {} is the ST target? thanks...

Hong Kong Qindex 08:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:42 GMT January 7, 2005
EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of 22-Day Cycle Reference


... // 1.3083 - 1.3157 - 1.3231 - 1.3305 - 1.3380 - {1.3454} // ...

perrie como 08:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Non Farm Us payrolls
normal range of expectations is
160K 175K

g/l

perrie como 08:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
sry am straight by fingers series of typos

meant to move to LSE the eurex derivative options

btw the market seems concerned about 2.30 Us data

hong kong nt 08:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EURO -- hear some experienced MT traders are buying at 1.315-1.320 with stop 1.299 for 1.37+..

perrie como 08:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
cashman ???

not so clear that so general guessing...

dresdener after bought KB ?
or the offer of deutsche boerse to move on to LSE, if UK agress obiously, to eurex derivative exchange to london?

or??? completly another thing



B.A. BOCA 08:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
good day all...

seems like market is positioned for a strong NFP to open up the new year. always dangerous for dollar, along with o/b short-term studies paints the perfect 'sell $ friday' in the case of a not-so-good payrolls number.

at this point i would say it is easier to go higher (eurusd) than push for new lows. but then again, anything can happen.

good luck and happy new year!

perrie como 08:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
take your time london...I see some minor swings and stops being cought on minor trends here, while am personally more biased to see the US opening waiting this euro morning to clear up a little. Strange sides wd say

Ldn Cashman 08:22 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
???

London. 08:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
perrie como will check out later, just a bit busy a moment cheers

perrie como 08:16 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Mellon already started on euors long somewhere 1.3250..but they big pockets buying on the and as all big guys those are scaling down...maybe 1.3/1.29 maybe 1.31 to hold
but soon to say as this is just the first week of the year and strange

perrie como 08:11 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
UK housing prices will take some six months to show uup the deceleration from record negative 12 years new home loans

maybe not a housing bubble for now, but stats deserve months to show up the truth behind....so the market might stay strange here on pound

btw...london do you have any about M&A flows eur to gbp..maybe yet soon or they already started some...guess It will another good deal for UK to sell so high electronic brokerages...maybe another style as dresdner began trading waters after spending billions for kleinwort benson

london 08:01 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
UK Halifax Dec House Prices +1.1% On Mo, +15.1% On Yr

London. 07:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
The EUR/USD has dropped to the nominated support area between 1.32/1.3150 and daily oscillators look oversold, says ANZ. The bk favors a rebound from here towards 1.35 next wk and cites there is a risk the mkt hasn't factored in a below consensus payrolls number

Sydney 07:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD: Should retest US$0.7638 minor resistance Friday, a brek above which would result in the US$0.7651 area being eyed next. Minor support comes in at US$0.7608 now.

Sydney 07:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD: The euro eyes $1.3211 minor resistance Friday as long as support at $1.3137 doesn't get breached. In case of a break above resistance, $1.3290 will be eyed next

Ldn 07:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR OPEN:USD Gives Back Gains Ahead Of NFP, Jobless Claims Weak

Ldn 07:21 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Melon Bank live CNBC saying they would buy Euro at these levels see Dollar come a long way .

Alicante RTN 07:19 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EURUSD: down 500 pips from top and found better support y'day. I am long from 1.3172. Event risk this afternoon will put some upward pressure on the rate due to profittaking.

The downside can resume if numbers from US are strong. Otherwise, the market will be caught short and the uptrend may resume with vigor.

Need to keep stop below early dec low (1.3138), all imho.

Ltn th 07:15 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dauphin 6:54. Very well put. Worth watching eurgpb but a bugger to make money off. Suspect it is shorted with very large leverages. When or iff it goes bang it could be violent depending on the balance of schitsoid desires of the europans.

NY 07:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
http://forexns.tripod.com/index.html

http://forexns.tripod.com/index.html

shanghai bc 07:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

NT 06:08 -- Good afternoon..Tonight's job figures may set the tone for the remainder of this month..If it is a short-term trade,I would be flat during London session and follow the market reaction after the release during NY session.Then, I am almost useless in short-term trading..But anything below and around Eur/usd 1.3200 seems to be a good value to buy this month unless the job figures are good beyond expectations..Good trades.

Tallinn viies 07:05 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
good morning world!
year started with the big bang which was started by NYC trading desks on 31st of dec and also at same hour on 3d of january. from that day further - from tuesday till today all the selling has been starting at the same hour basially. when Ldn comes in. later NYC try range extremes and Asia hangs around.
tthis hour has just started.
sell the euro and wear diamonds :)
first target today 1,3110/15 next at 1,3060/65. stop and reverse at 1,3315/20
good luck

Los Angeles ss 06:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dophin -- thanks. I'll keep that in mind as I sit on my 1.3195 short. Not one of those that think is going up to 1.4 anytime soon!

Eilat Dophin 06:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
ss/ Yes, Euro schizofrenia medically described as "european model". It's not really dangerous. Those suffering from it tend to think they have a mission (like 1.40 fast), are brilliant, have messia bit hallucination etc,

Eilat Dophin 06:50 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
david bkk/ Bloomberg.com has an excellent page for the US economic calendar. Thompson does too.

Los Angeles ss 06:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Thoughts on euro/usd at these levels?

Eilat Dophin 06:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Happy morning all! Here is my foggy vision for today:

Before the Jobs, anything can happen.

At the numbers release everything will happen.

If the numbers are below expectations twisters will happen.

If the numbers are at expectation or above, the $ gains strength.

Thus I went flat an hour ago, after reading all your posts of course (thanks, with special mention to martin).

bkk david 06:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
I think usdjpy should go 105.70-106.30 level before any down side to finish wave 5

Sydney 06:40 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Australian Shares End At Record High As Stocks Rebound

HOUSTON ken 06:27 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
short aussie now . 15 pips stop loss

hong kong nt 06:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
BC -- holding long euro at 1.317 and long aud at .7600, can you kindly advise proper stop-loss for short term trades? many good trades to you...

gold coast martin 06:07 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
lol.....JAYS MAGIC SPRAY AND WIPE IS REQUIRED....

gold coast martin 06:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
BKK...NFP DATA AT 13.30 GMT....

ny 06:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
TRADE RESULTS 1/6/05 5 FREE DAYS

http://forexns.tripod.com/index.html

1/6/05

CHF/JPY SHORT 89.20 CLOSE 89.11 +9 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.148 CLOSE 138.02 +13 PIPS

USD/JPY SHORT 104.20 CLOSE 104.07 +13 PIPS

EUR/JPY BUY 138.16 CLOSE 138.24 +8 PIPS

USD/CAD SHORT 1.2324 CLOSE 1.2308 +16 PIPS

CHF/JPY BUY 89.20 CLOSE 89.29 +9 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.39 CLOSE 138.30 +9 PIPS

GBP/USD SHORT 1.87655 CLOSE 1.8763 +3 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.40 CLOSE 138.34 +6 PIPS

EUR/USD SHORT 1.319767 CLOSE 1.3188 +10 PIPS

USD/JPY SHORT 104.99 CLOSE 104.91 +8 PIPS

USD/CAD SHORT 1.2365 CLOSE 1.2360 +5 PIPS

USD/CAD SHORT 1.2367 CLOSE 1.2359 +8 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.43 CLOSE 138.35 +8 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.37 CLOSE 138.32 +5 PIPS

USD/CHF SHORT 1.1746 CLOSE 1.1741 +5 PIPS

GBP/USD SHORT 1.8750 CLOSE 1.8770 -20 PIPS

USD/JPY BUY 104.92 CLOSE 104.95 +3 PIPS

USD/JPY BUY 104.1971 CLOSE 138.24 +4 PIPS

bkk david 06:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
when payroll data out ? TO i will get out long usdjpy before
data out 1 hour

gold coast martin 06:02 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Ldn 06:00 GMT January 7, 2005
YES....

Ldn 06:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin aussie still looking for 76.58 tops ?

gold coast martin 05:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 05:49 GMT January 7, 2005
With due respect to Elliot chartists,this weeks daily flows/weekly have been too specific for an elliott wave to pick the exact timeframe of such a big reversal as you predict..


YEN LONG:keep it and exit 1 hour before payroll data..or if stop of 10441 does not hold ..let it go..its friday,its volatile and you will not be giving back to the market pips that you worked so hard to make during the week...and do not attempt to re-enter same posiyion ....the direction may be right but due to a limited timeframe it will cost you pips to find out...you can always re-enter monday when direction may be confirmed....g/t

Ldn 05:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB appreciated thanks tend to agree with you

Halifax CB 05:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Ldn - I'm not an Elliot wave analysts, I just look at the chart of the weeklies of the Euro and see exactly the same pattern unfolding that did so last year around this time, and in March before that. I know there's a lot of experience and testing behind wave stuff (I'm not ragging it, in other words), I just am a firm proponent of the KISS rule :) For those without a plotting program I put a plot of the EURUSD weeklies on my site.

FWIW, I have also updated (and clarified a little - thanks valdez for the feedback) the prediction plots. They are in this directory. Cheers, I'm off to sleep....

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:56 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
ny, you do just great pal. Now if everyone was so proud as you are we'd have a real loaded forum, wouldn't we! Cheers..hint..

ny 05:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Heres are trades for 1/6/05 http://forexns.tripod.com/

http://forexns.tripod.com/

CHF/JPY SHORT 89.20 CLOSE 89.11 +9 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.148 CLOSE 138.02 +13 PIPS

USD/JPY SHORT 104.20 CLOSE 104.07 +13 PIPS

EUR/JPY BUY 138.16 CLOSE 138.24 +8 PIPS

USD/CAD SHORT 1.2324 CLOSE 1.2308 +16 PIPS

CHF/JPY BUY 89.20 CLOSE 89.29 +9 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.39 CLOSE 138.30 +9 PIPS

GBP/USD SHORT 1.87655 CLOSE 1.8763 +3 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.40 CLOSE 138.34 +6 PIPS

EUR/USD SHORT 1.319767 CLOSE 1.3188 +10 PIPS

USD/JPY SHORT 104.99 CLOSE 104.91 +8 PIPS

USD/CAD SHORT 1.2365 CLOSE 1.2360 +5 PIPS

USD/CAD SHORT 1.2367 CLOSE 1.2359 +8 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.43 CLOSE 138.35 +8 PIPS

EUR/JPY SHORT 138.37 CLOSE 138.32 +5 PIPS

USD/CHF SHORT 1.1746 CLOSE 1.1741 +5 PIPS

GBP/USD SHORT 1.8750 CLOSE 1.8770 -20 PIPS

USD/JPY BUY 104.92 CLOSE 104.95 +3 PIPS

USD/JPY BUY 104.1971 CLOSE 138.24 +4 PIPS


Ldn 05:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EURO/USD - One Last Hurrah

bkk david 05:49 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
I think usd weakening return again to
finish wave 5 , eurusd should go at least 1.3750-1.3950 target.

Within today or monday in ny session i will establish long eurusd around 1.3200, stop 1.3030 (a few lots)

Hi how do you think about usdjpy that i had long it since yesterday ?. I will get out when it go back to 104.90-105.00
if it is not touch 104.44 as stop yesterday.

gold coast martin 05:48 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 05:43 GMT January 7, 2005

FWIW....A hint ...my original post of this morning ..the entry levels were @market...so...if you have entry levels and resistance levels ......i am sure you know what to do,,,,,g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:47 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I REALLY hate big money doing this and please no one say it didn't happen. I have no kind words for that sort of slime.

Ldn 05:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt quite confusing if you consider half the market is the other way. thanks for that

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Well, some big money bustard stopped the train. Thanks Dad.

hong kong nt 05:40 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Ldn 05:34 -- based on Elliot wave, ideal Euro top is placed at 1.38 (wave 1 x 2.6 + bottom of wave 2) but prudent traders may not squeeze the last few drops and unload at x 2.3-2.4 (ie 1.358-1.365), make or break of 1.31 line maybe indicative...

Ldn 05:38 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Euro headed for 1.33 GBP 1.89 Aud 77 Chf 1,1668

Ldn 05:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
sgp sp that is what is being said higher Euro

sgp sp 05:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hi nt,

Not forgetting *6* is also one of your preferred no. :)

We are in wave 4 going to wave 5?

gl & gt 2 u

Ldn 05:34 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt I am not a Elliott tech myself but a major Elliott analysts see euro etc now bottomed and heading higher from here, just wondered othes views on that tks

shanghai bc 05:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

2NIGHT -- Happy new year.

NT -- Happay new year..

hong kong nt 05:31 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Ldn 05:25 -- preferred EURO wave count: wave 1: 1.176-1.246, wave 2: 1.196, wave 3: 1.376, wave 4: 1.316, wave 5: 1.386, so many 6 in last figure...

Syd 05:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dlr Falls Vs Yen, Euro On Profit-Taking

hong kong nt 05:26 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
BC -- guess anyone can have enough money to buy the world provided he may use the US bond certificate printing machine for a short while...

Ldn 05:25 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Any Elliot Wavers out there appreciate your view

melbourne 2nite 05:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Good afternoon BC
drug dealers are indeed xiao3 wu1 (small-time player) compare to arms dealers 'da4 wu1' . Wish you a good year ahead.

gold coast martin 05:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   


shanghai bc 05:09 GMT January 7, 2005
lol.....very good BC.....

shanghai bc 05:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

US Bonds certificates serve better prupose for heavyweight underworld folks ..One can carry a few hundred millions of Dollars in a suit case..Those who use 500 Euro notes must be small-time underworld figures..

wellington am 05:06 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
NY 05:04 GMT January 7, 2005
So what are they recommending?

NY 05:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
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Jkt Rick 04:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
looks like alot of people will be making good money with 95% being dollar bears and the euro due for correction.

Syd 04:43 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
While many are worried about holders of USD-denominated assets cashing out in face of U.S. deficits, there may be some the Fed won't be sorry to lose. One financial newsletter is claiming the world's drug dealers are getting out of dollars and into EUR in big way; USD decline may be part of story, but ECB's trafficker-friendly 200, 500 EUR notes apparently make for lighter briefcases. Handy when you need to leave places in a hurry.AAP

Hong Kong Qindex 04:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
We shall see how the market reacts this Friday I will not repeat what I have said before so I will make it short and to the point.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3210-20, 3250-3280, 3310-20, 3340-50, 3380-3400, 3440-50, 3480-90, 3520-40, 3580-3600, 3650-70, 3700-10, 3750-60 and 3800-10. Main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3490-3500, 3390-3400, 3300-10, 3210-20, and 3110-20.
Retracement numbers are 3415-25, 3260-70, 3140-50, 3020-30 and 2865-75
Second wave retracement numbers are 3320-30, 3100-10, 2940-50, 2770-80 and 2555-65 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3380-90 and 3450-60 Support T/L 3030-40 for now.
Support is around the 3170-80, 3130-40, 3100-10, 3070-80, 3030-40, 2940-50, 2890-2900 and 2850-60 for now key support is around the 3130-3140 area IMHO. GL GT

melbourne 2nite 04:37 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
May prefer to play view thru eurgbp .

melbourne 2day 04:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hello to all ..

my wild guess ..
this usd rally fuelled by speculative money on 1.3700 (eurusd) holding during Christmas/ new year holidays , making the path of lesser resistance during the thin first week market down, riding on expectation of good number friday and with even usd bears persuaded on a usd correction (though some expecting from higher eurusd lvl) .

Hence looking to buy 1.30-32 targeting 1.34-36 prefering on 1.3100 false break , keeping an eye on the following pattern discontinued ..

1. eurusd fall had been able to establish firm resistance around big figure 1.35, 1.34, 1.33, 1.32 ..

2. lower daily high/low ..

Just my wild guess .. GT to all.

gold coast martin 04:23 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
sg kan 04:10 GMT January 7, 2005

Anything over 18745 is a good level to short.....g/t

sg kan 04:10 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Good afternoon gold coast martin
I see sterling having resistance at 1.8780 and do you see this a good level to short. Kindly advise thanks

Syd 04:08 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   


Australian and Brazilian iron ore miners hope to lock in price rises of more than 30% next week as new negotiations begin in Tokyo with Japanese steel producers, analysts said Friday

Dallas GEP 04:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
PRIME example guys. Just received this from platform provider:

WARNING: 1/07/2005 8:30 am EST execution speed &
certainty CANNOT be guaranteed. With increased
activity phones will be busy and system may
be slow.

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Immediately after marty's post the charts obeyed him. Either he's VERY RIGHT or EVERYONE LISTENS. -OR BOTH-. Incredible. Oh how I wish I'd have put a long Euro THEN! Oh well.

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:55 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
GEP// messenger.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 03:45 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AUD

0.7736 0.7763 R4
0.7696 0.7709 R3
0.7670 0.7676 R2
0.7665 0.7668 R1

0.7611 0.7610
0.7615 0.7628

0.7564 0.7568 S1
0.7559 0.7564 S2
0.7534 0.7547 S3
0.7493 0.7520 S4

Rockford BDR 03:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
please disregard didnt see the rest
Thanks

Rockford BDR 03:39 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
martin
Why such short stops right before an nfp announcement.
Thanks

gold coast martin 03:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:20 GMT January 7, 2005
Great post like wise...it is one that should be taken and pasted across every traders forehead so as not to forget to follow it... G/L and Best of luck...........

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:32 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
There you go kids, two OUTSTANDING posts. Listen to the men.

Dallas GEP 03:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Martin Excellent post my friend. Also In terms of making sure your possies will MORE likely be in the right direction, you should refrain from entering NEW possies PRIOR to 15-30 minutes AFTER annoucement` Possies entered at annoucement time EVEN if in the right eventual direction can be easily taken out by market action prior to correction. Because of this STRADDLES rarely work. You can easily stop out going EITHER direction.

Stop and Reverse strategies are not a good idea EITHER for above reason (erratic market action). ALL platform providers have made it pretty clear that stops will NOT NECESSARILY be honored and that slippage may occurr at which point in time you stop will be filled at whatver MARKET is at the time.

I was told by one platform provider when we had that 20K NFP number off an expected 350K number that because at the time they DID fill stops exactly, it cost them 14,000,000 dollars that day. Since that time, we have had no stop loss gurantees if market moves data instantly past the stop level for most platforms.

If you must leave possies open prior to NFP non-usd pairs such as eur/gbp are safer. Try not to have open multiple possies that are going on the same direction. For instance a USD/CHF short and a EUR/USD long would not be good if we have a good NFP number so if you can close one for profit prior that would be better.

Lastly, after data, be VERY careful about adding to your possie EVEN if it appears you are intially going the right direction.

Atlanta-South 03:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin//Thks from a TRADER who is still learning as we all are probably doing. Thks for your time, knowledge & adv. Alway GOOD to see your post.

gold coast martin 02:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
On a personal level please note that the scenario below is one i have taken and it is not by all means waterproof...i have tried my best to give the forum my view for today...please verify the figures with your own systems/style of trading and if you comfortable with it use it as a guide..if not just ignore it and trust your own ssystem....as the purpose is to help your trading and not hinder it...g/l...

gold coast martin 02:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
GOOD AFTERNOON/MORNING.....

Todays pre-nfp trading right up to 1 hour prior to nfp timeframe applies:.Mirror image trading of yesterday applies:

euro: resistance level 13218.....pre-nfp target 13086....use stop 13223
yen:resistance level 10447...pre-nfp target 10578... stop..10441

cable:resistance 18808....pre-nfp target 18668... stop...18814.

aud:res.level 7658...pre-nfp target 7536...stop....7658....
PLEASE NOTE:these positions must be exited 1 hour before nfp or when target reached...
The only way positions can be kept open post nfp is if targets are exceeded by more than 58 pips respectively...that will serve as buffer fot post data volatility until market direction is determined 15 minutes thereafter....In times of high volatility flows that are created 5 minutes before the data are virtually impossible to detect by my system....the above strategy depends on your level of patience and tolerance...
If in doubt adhere to this post for today and tonite as i have made it as simple as i can so no questions are constantly asked during high volatility.

An important factor to consider that may undermine the scenario above is:..As in the past 2 days and been a mirror image trading day,yen may reach the 10578 figures and challenge the 10634 level..if 10634 is breached ,yen will see 10715...in such a scenario it will be euro to below 13067..cable 18564..and aud 7447(which is a critical resistance level)...in such a scenario NFP data will only produce a shallow retracement provided it falls short of market expectations...if positive the same figures may become the closing figures.....
Good trades and mind your risk.........

Syd 02:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD bout of selling that followed slightly weaker- retail sales data in November. Traders however say market prepared to absorb data November data as it is somewhat dated, forward looking surveys already pointing to strong rebound in December dj

Global-View QIndex/Gendk Special 02:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   

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LA fxnew 02:04 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
any good cable analyst in the forum ???

what do you think of cable today?
thank u!

Hong Kong Qindex 02:03 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Syd 02:00 GMT - AUD/USD : It seems to me that the market will retrace.

Syd 02:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex being friday could see a run up on Aud 7660 before coming off later bounced well off the support again

NoVa Lurker 02:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Done trading for today, just "lurking".

Ldn 01:59 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
NoVa Lurker dont drink when trading fall asleep too easy , difficult enough.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:57 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD : The mid-point reference of 0.7502 - 0.7835 is 0.7669.


Hong Kong Qindex 07:16 GMT January 6, 2005
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : There are two key quantized levels in this series, namely 0.7502 and 0.7835. The neutral zone is 0.7752 - 0.0.7919 and the mid-point reference is 0.7835. A projected resistant point is positioning at 0.8001 A projected supporting level is expected at 0.7418 - 0.7435. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 0.7835).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 0.7454* // {0.7502} - 0.7549 - 0.7597 - 0.7644* - 0.7692 - 0.7740 - 0.7788 - {0.7835} // 0.7883 ...



Curve B : ... 0.7418* // {0.7502} - 0.7585* - 0.7668 - 0.7751* - {0.7835} // 0.7916* ...



Curve C : ... 0.7435 // {0.7502} - 0.7568* - 0.7635 - 0.7702 - 0.7768 - {0.7835}* // 0.7902 ...


Hong Kong Qindex 01:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is testing the upper barrier of my weekly cycle.


Hong Kong Qindex 07:55 GMT January 6, 2005
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : There are two key quantized levels in this series, namely 1.1931 and 1.2314 and the mid-point reference is 1.2123. The neutral zone of my weekly cycle charts is located at 1.1931 - 1.2084. A projected supporting level is located at 1.1931 and a projected resistant level is expected at 1.2441 - 1.2467. (Suggestion : Maintain a long position if the market is trading above 1.2026).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.1854 // {1.1931}* - 1.2008 - 1.2084 - 1.2161 - 1.2237 - {1.2314} // 1.2390 - 1.2467 - 1.2543* ...


Curve B : ... 1.1836 // {1.1931} - 1.2026 - 1.2122* - 1.2218 - {1.2314} // 1.2409 - 1.2505* ...


Curve C : ... 1.1803 // {1.1931} - 1.2059 - 1.2186 - {1.2314} // 1.2441* ...

NoVa Lurker 01:53 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
understood Ldn, mine might be a case of a bit too much Pinot Noir or something :)

Syd 01:51 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Spot gold $422.10/oz, Asian buying this morning; gold gaining on after-hours Comex Access buying with USD slightly off highs. growing caution, l eyes focused on U.S. payrolls with a weak number to bolster gold -

Hong Kong Qindex 01:51 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY : It is likely that the market has reached its weekly high.


Hong Kong Qindex 11:29 GMT January 5, 2005
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : Two common factors are located in this series, namely 101.65 and 105.24 and the mid-point reference is 103.45. The neutral zone of my weekly cycle is 102.45 - 103.24 and the mid-point reference is 102.45. A projected resistant point is located at 105.24. A projected supporting point is expected at 101.65 (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a long position if the market is trading above 103.45).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 100.94 // {101.65}* - 102.36 - 103.09 - 103.81 - 104.52* - {105.24} // 105.95 - 106.67 - 107.39* ...


Curve B : ... 101.14 // {101.65}* - 102.17 - 102.68 - 103.19 - 103.70* - 104.21 - 104.72 - {105.24} // 105.75 ...


Curve C : ... 101.26 // {101.65}* - 102.05 - 102.45 - 102.85 - 103.24* - 103.64 - 104.04 - 104.44 - 104.83* - {105.24} // 105.63 - 106.03 - 106.42 ...


Ldn 01:47 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
type error , got my wrist strapped up too much computer work difficulty typing

LA 01:44 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
NoVa Lurker The perfect person to ask is Shanghai BC , he understands in the ins and outs of the Japanese minds ;-)

NoVa Lurker 01:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
sorry that was London for Ldn :(

NoVa Lurker 01:42 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Longon, perhaps you might explain why JPN exporters are always, it seems, on the offering.

Wouldn't a higher $ benefit them or is the answer they are so hugely hedged that that is where their profit margins lie?

Any one else offer an answer or ex[lanation if you have one, pls.

Syd 01:41 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
A few USD longs seem to be squaring before Europe comes in

Ldn 01:36 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY falls to 104.78 on Japan exporters' offers, selling by traders adjusting USD longs they built on pair's overnight rally
Tetsu Aikawa trader

Syd 01:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD: Breaks Higher On U.S. Investment Bank Buying

Syd 01:28 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
AU: Econ Still Supports Hike Bias - SG

com azarento 01:20 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
good night tokyo

Tokyo IM 01:00 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Goodmorning all.

london, herts jr 00:54 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
well just popped in to check before retiring for eveining..thanks for welcome...my take on it is 130-134..stg still a sell...pick something to sell agst...only thing that worries me this year (as an asian bull man for 2005), is an article HSBC produced which made interesting reading relating to possible N.korea.S.korea development..which might make short term , lots money..if anyone wants email of it i will oblige

Colorado Mikie 00:33 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
london, herts jr 00:15 GMT January 7, 2005

As Atlanta just said, welcome... We all would like to hear the views from another experienced trader, hope to see posts from you, your input is valuable, as are all...

Welcome
Mikie

Atlanta-South 00:30 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
GREAT to see another well learned TRADER on the forum.

london, herts jr 00:15 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I am a retired bank trader..still trading personally, have been for 6 years now..newish to forum, its great..dont say much on it..but some of u guys , well just love reading, if anyone here starts moaning or whinging...well stay off this site..thats what i say...keep it coming guys, the good work that is....

Atlanta-South 00:14 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
Austin rb//Your so right. Thks.

FRA Alpha Tango 00:09 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
usd/chf is an immediat buy above 1.1735, big fishes are building longs with dollars , euro is about to collapse... the maximum is at 1.3202

Austin rb 00:03 GMT January 7, 2005 Reply   
I agree with Atlanta South. I trade my own "system" and it is nice to see when other people are trading your direction and just as valuable when people are not. Having no one to blame for a bad trade is where you want to be. It's all abot learning something new as often as possible.

 




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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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