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Forex Forum Archive for 01/16/2005

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Ltn th 23:52 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
BC. many thanks. I had been inclining to the thought that they may have been more influenced by a basket of the majors rather than any specific target against USD. If covert then I wonder if simply verbal intervention will suffice this time.

amman R.G 23:49 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Good morning every one ...

GBP/USD .... seems trying to break the 1.8760 level .....
but untill that happend................
sell on 1.8720 .. cut loss 1.8750 ..... first target 1.8515 ......... abreak of 1.8760 will lead the way to 1.8870

GOOD LUCK ALLLL

Tallinn viies 23:46 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
london cjs 23:44 - of course

Hong Kong Qindex 23:44 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

london cjs 23:44 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
101.42 will be intervention level

shanghai bc 23:40 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   

TH -- Good morning..BOJ intervention is a certainty ..The only issue is when and how and how many yards...I guess Usd/Jpy 100--102 is an intervention zone,covert or public..Expecting it to be more of covert operation this time around..Repatriation has not started in earnest yet but some specs are moving earlier in anticipation..Good trades.

GOES B747 23:07 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
bc // "Ask Japan's neighbours like Korea or Philipines..So much for politics here"; all three has US bases inside their borders, China does not. All three has/had troops in Iraq, China had/has none.

really undrstand your point as history tells the future, Japanesse always say sorry but never apologize ... btw, Germany will not bomb London again; they will not dare to harm Harry Donkeyearson.


the best and gt.

Ltn th 23:04 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Syd. Thanks for your help. Possibly BC and Martin are playing it close to their chests? Good morning BC and martin if around.

Los Angeles ss 22:40 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Thanks GEP, your insight is always appreciated!

shanghai bc 22:40 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   

B747-- Good morning..We all make mistake and same for the nations..Germany has officially and fully apolozied to all their neighbours for their war crimes and are paying war compensation to the victims ..Nothing of the sort for Japan..Japan has never officially apolozied to most of their Asian neighbours for their war crimes and still teach their children the invasion in Asia was an "advance"..Their government still refuses to admit their war atrocities in Asia in public..Would you trust your neighbour of that caliber..Ask Japan's neighbours like Korea or Philipines..So much for politics here..Good trades.

lax-lgb SNP 22:39 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
conti$s giving it up rather easily on Friday + weekly closing formations across the board ... seems its $$$ buying time again

Syd 22:37 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Ltn thIMM speculators add to net euro long position-CFTC

Syd 22:36 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
According to ANZ Economic fundamentals may drag it lower midyear saying its possible Kiwi has already hit apex as

signs increase that NZ economic growth has peaked
soft commodity prices may begin to decline
growing current account deficit

Ltn th , Repatriation normally come in waves when least expecting it , in the first quarter.
Shanghai BC or Martin will probably have information on possible timing on this .

Ltn th 22:23 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Syd. Pardon if I have wrong person. But I think you may have referred to yen repat last friday. The recent/current volatility and timing has me bug...ed. We could have a month for the market to position for it and then best part of 2 weeks for it to happen? This may suggest serious downside on USDJPY if we dont see much reduced volatility soon then serious yen weakness pre repat. Every year is different as some one observed. Perhaps martin would have a better idea of their cot?
This pair may be reflecting USD position more than JPY though.
Would appreciate any thoughts to clarify the position.

Dallas GEP 22:19 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
WEll SS , GBP is mixed but I would say 1.8740 then short from there but alot depends on how YEN is played in Asia. WE had a lot of yen buying late friday so I would look for the yen pairs to long INCLUDING usd/jpy, eur/jpy and gbp/jpy

GOES B747 22:16 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc 22:07 GMT // good evening bc, must be easier this time; their partners from last time (i.e. Germany) are major players in China ... is it a kind of trojan horse?!

yep; they can change peacful laws into invasion friendly laws very fast upon request from USA and/or their own needs ... your location says it all; hard to forget and to forgive sometimes during life ... I understand in full your feeling.

gt

Los Angeles ss 22:14 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Gep, what is your reading on GBP near term? Good trading this week for you.

shanghai bc 22:07 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   

He should have added that that would make it easier for Japan to invade her next door neighbours next time just like the last time.

GOES B747 21:54 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Japan's FM added that his request delivered to EU and Russia as well; Japan does not like arms sales to their next door countries.

gt

GOES B747 21:51 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Japan asked Israel to avoid arms sales to China.

gt all

Syd 21:32 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Currency Quest - EU/US Poised for Important Test of 1.29's
by Mike Ellis
http://www.forexnews.com/FI/defaultnew.asp?f=20050114.mgn

Wisconsion Peter Jack 21:27 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
hi all. good luck to everyone for this week. Spotforex et all

Syd 21:25 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Currency Life Cycle

Ok, that’s the technical picture. But earlier I mentioned “conversion flow.” Here is a roadmap of a typical currency cycle. It should help put the term “conversion flow” into perspective for you.

1. Extreme bearishness—this is the stage where “shoe shine boys” are shorting the currency and can articulate the rationale to anyone and everyone who will listen. This is when things seem the most bearish, but are in reality most bullish (as later can be seen with the elusive gift of hindsight).

2. Conversion flow—this is the stage when bears start to question their “so obvious” rationale for being short. It is the stage where the flaw in perception of the crowd begins to be recognized by members of the crowd. Conversion flow has an early stage and a more advanced stage. It is why we see increased volatility when the trend changes. The players begin to realize something has changed. But they realize it at different times.

3. Perception of the trend—this is the stage where the crowd recognizes that a new trend may be underway. They have discarded the old rationale and are beginning to accept the new one.

4. Capitulation to the trend—now the trend is fully underway. The crotchety old diehard bears can’t hold out hope any longer—they capitulate and buy into the new trend. Often this is a sign that the new trend is actually becoming a bit stale, for now even the diehards are along for the ride.

5. Extreme bullishness—now the “shoe shine boys” are buying the currency and are articulating the rationale to anyone and everyone who will listen. This is when things seem the most bullish, but are in reality most bearish.

That is typically the five stages of the currency life cycle. I think we are through stage one in the dollar and early in stage two—conversion flow. But, as I said, I have defined a typical cycle. The market is rarely typical in real life. However, if we are going to play, it can be helpful to have a framework. In the end, we are simply laying down our money and taking our chances. But if we can identify where we are in the life cycle, I think it can inch the probabilities of winning in our favor

blackswantrading.com
Jack Crooks.

ICT ML 21:11 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Well if ever there was a reason to start buying back dollars, I can't think of one better than yesterdays "Saturday Night Live" on NBC doing a skit of a humiliated dollar being mocked by a euro, pound and peso as a weakling..................don't know if that was a rerun or live, but don't matter much.........

Add to that EU Zorro's post from late last week and I think we have the answer.

GOES B747 21:11 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
from "The Privateer" (www.the-privateer.com):

"The Ides of March:
In early March - after President Bush has returned from his February tour of Western Europe with empty
hands, having gained no military help from continental Europe for his military occupation of Iraq - he will
face a stark geo-political and geo-strategic prospect. Mr Bush will have to expand the US forces in Iraq
to 500-550,000 (equivalent to peak Vietnam war deployment) by instituting a real national draft to flesh
out the force. He will also have to go to Congress again and get unlimited war time borrowing and
spending powers. If he does not do these things, President Bush can call a RETREAT. The most
important grand policy reason for this outcome is that neither western Europe, nor Russia, nor China is
prepared to accept an endless US military presence in the centre of the Middle East, thereby making the
US the arbitrator of the world’s largest assured oil supply. They will stand aside and let the US wither its
own military forces away in a futile military endeavour to maintain an occupation in Iraq, where the
resistance forces already outnumber the US occupation forces. If the Shiites rise up, it could be a rout.

Cbj Jake 21:01 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Rivonia _ My apologies. You are correct.

Ldn 20:43 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Weak Dollar Hanging Over U.S. Automakers

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=416691

knoxville dan-k 19:55 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
r u long Dallas @102?
i took it long at 101.96- lol pretty close signals we have

Dallas GEP 19:55 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
101.55 Caba

PipPirate Rivonia 19:55 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Cbj Jake 18:32 GMT January 16, 2005 I too enjoyed your post. I am, however, a simple existential FX'er, and found your rather esoteric dissertation wrt my simple addendum to a post which I read on friday, at once belwildering and confuseing.
My humble mathematic background ended with PDE's(partial differential equations). So forgive me if I do not follow your logic.
Your point that "absurdities arise that are nonrational but must be allowed", I follow as a mathematical "singularity", where dividing by zero might be considered valid.
The rest of your post is pretty much greek to me, so I may call on friend ATHENS to help out here....../:-)

Philadelphia Caba 19:50 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
GEP, may I ask you on your s/l on usdjpy longs? Thanks.

Dallas GEP 19:41 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Well long usd/jpy...last set taken @ 102.00. Strange price action on Friday on USD/JPY in thin market. LOW I think was 101.75. Should see rebound today to at LEAST 102.55 IMO

Cbj Jake 18:32 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Rivonia - I enjoyed your post. I would like to muse though.
Your post hast consensual vlaue but as one comes intimate with a situation, a signigicant other or even an electron, absurdities arise that are nonrational but must be allowed if one is to move with the flow. This is to say, the instrument of peception must be criiqued. Euclids theorems were used as a proof of the existence of God until a "blasphemer" said, "Ah, I think I will change his assumptions" and Geometry has never recovered its certainty. This at the turn of the 20th C. Algebra was next, with Whitehead and Von Neumann trying to prove the internal consistency of algebra. They ,gratefully gave it up when Goeddal came along and said it was a fool's errand - and systems programming has never been the same. We "thought" that Iraqiis would bestow flowers! We are hard-wired to a two value Socratic logic. Thus everything we say is suspect as you move into a larger domain. Here you do not argue you "have to" move as ignorance. After all you only experience what you know, "re- cognition". How do you get the proverbial goose out of the thin neck of the wine bottle without breaking. If you think you will never do it!

Spotforex NY 17:23 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
re: cows

The post in the political forum summed up economis very well. Look in the archives

Political forum: perrie como 15:32 GMT August 18, 2004

Cbj Jake 16:42 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac you made me laugh - very funny. Add beautiful women! Almost forgot - fx too!

Hong Kong Qindex 14:15 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

PipPirate Rivonia 11:58 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
The forgotten continent, update:
ECONOMICS
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡--------------------------------
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡TRADITIONAL ECONOMICS
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡You have two cows.
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡You sell one and buy a bull.
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡Your herd multiplies and the economy grows.
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡You retire on the income.
Africa:You have two cows.
You eat one at wedding feast..(burp)
You give the other to your sons brides family.(trad. wedding gift)
You beg western nations for loans to buy two cows
You have two cows
You demand "debt relief" from western nations.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:43 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Haifa ac 09:30 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Cbj Jake 08:28 GMT // How true. Culture is vital. Ask any petrie dish.

Syd 09:24 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Tory ex-minister joins Labour benches and warns: 'Howard will harm Britain'
link

Cbj Jake 08:28 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac I don't write but ,my friend, you inspired me in a flash - without hesitation!! Some one has said what separates a man from himself is only his cultural reference point - his name. By objectifying himself in so brittle a fashion, he has cut his identity with the universe. How painful that must be!
Culture is a two edged sword - it has given one every "thing" -how to look ,how to eat,how to know. But naked,on the edge of the bed at nite, nothing to distract - culture is of no help.If you are a woman gang-raped by the enemy, your culture will say, "Why did you satisfy your enemy?". One has to go beyond the sentimentality of culture if he is to enjoy himself. No one can help one go this "distance". Self - knowledge is ruthless.I'm sure I tell you nothing,but ,it is late/early and perhaps, I talk to myself. I laugh! Yes. I thank you!

Haifa ac 08:08 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Cbj Jake 08:02 GMT //LOL. Amazing what the fleeting mention of Saint Exupéry's can do to a man with a pen. Fine writing.

Cbj Jake 08:02 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac _ Good Morning! There was a large front page picture in the NYTimes a while ago - beautiful,poignant and profound. A large cattle truck had stopped in the middle of this great expanse of African desert. It was filled with people and their belongings. The colors of their clothes were so vibrant against the monotonous homogeneity of the desert. The picture was so alive with people together with their pots and pans hanging off the truck. It was also silent - a "stuck" "don't know" accented by the truck's tire tracks that faded into a "distant" past soon to be covered by desert winds. These people had been summarily and gratuitously dismissed from their country! In the heat of the dessert they are existentially frozen - the context of their lives changed.When context has changed so abruptly of what siginigicance is content. Miraculously, they will move,not knowing where or why. Nature moves them as life. They WILL move! This is the law of life. In the old days immigrants came to these shores with families, poor,simple- not knowing the next day. The impersonal vitality of live moved them, not caring where.

hong kong nt 07:35 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
range trade EUR/JPY 133-136 and GBP/JPY 190-195 may work for this week...

Eilat Dolphin 07:12 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
ac/ Happy morning! If true for Saint Exupéry's Little Prince planet, it didn't turn like that for the writer.

He did get lost quite a few times on his planet. (Cyrenaïque crash, in Terre des Hommes, in Mauritania's Sahara, in Courrier Sud), and he wasn't even the one to open the new air routes to Senegal, or across southern Atlantic, or through the Andes...

He even crashed five times before the Last One.

And still, the man did spend his life going strait ahead, unwavering.
So did his pen.
For both he has my utmost respect.

Bris th 06:17 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac ....One system no matter how good is just a grain of sand on the fx beach...But each to his own poison I say...Going out for a few beers gl next week all..

Haifa ac 06:01 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
LondonJoe 14:54 ..."as wise man Shanghai BC says, respect the current theme and dodge the oncoming bullets and you will make it in this game... // The Problem, of course is Antoin De Saint exuperi who said via his little prince: "straight ahead of him no one can go very far!"

"...if you are gentle, I will give you a string, too, so that you can tie him during the day. And a post.

But the little prince seemed shocked by this offer:

- Tie him? What a queer idea!

- But, if you don't tie him, he will wander off somewhere, and get lost...

My friend broke into another peal of laughter:

- But where do you think he would go?

- Anywhere. Straight ahead of him...

Then, the little prince said, earnestly:

- That doesn't matter. Where I live, everything is so small!

And, with perhaps a hint of melancholy, he added:

- Straight ahead of him, nobody can go very far..."

Singapore 05:37 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
LondonJoe 19:52 GMT January 15, 2005
Include Australian Government - @ 3/4 Billion form memory via FX dealings..

Haifa ac 05:28 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
Bris th 21:46 GMT // By definition you can't miss a big trend if you follow that crossing. However today, the market "knows" it and if too many peons follow it too soon- the market will stay long enough to wash them out. The seond and the third crossings are much safer- by then most of small traders have been flushed. Even Steinhardt with his simple Jesse Livermore technique (buy wheat when it breaks 1.20, leave it alone in the range!) stopped trading and devoted most of his time to art collection and benefection. When the turtles sell a million dollar "secret" for peanuts you know the market is watching it.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:06 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply   
USD Index (DX, NYBOT) : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

 




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