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Forex Forum Archive for 01/21/2005

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London NR 23:08 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
ICT ML 22:20 GMT /// Hi sorry if this is a stoopid question but what technicals do you use.Genuine newb question. :)
TIA.

Cbj Jake 23:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I havn't started on my Guinness yet. It is slow and the big feet are exhausted, knocking themselves out. A note on psychology and trend change.
With a new admin a few yrs ago, I sensed the world and finance would change,so I got into gold stocks. Up to that point if they went up, even a little, you sold!! Well! The next few yrs, the HUI ,au indx, went up I think 400%( stk brokers kept it a secret. How can a real trader miss 400% bks of predjudice!). I missed it! I couldn't believe what my mind was telling me.
Cramer(street.com) would kick anyone who discussed gold off the site. Their was real venom!
The opposite absurdity? Ritchie brothers:"Any one who owned silver all the way up to $50 also held it all the way down." Got to laugh how this brain works. cheers

ICT ML 22:21 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
below should read "8 hr. chart technicals" not "hr."......cheers

ICT ML 22:20 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Well fundy's aside, my hr. chart technicals told me that gbp-usd possibly hit a spike low at 1.8525 and a base at 1.8600 for a move towards 1.9100 maybe, and another 100 pips to 1.8900 almost assuredly (to me anyway) From there we'll have to see what happens.

So I am expecting euro to head farther north with it, 1.3200 at least and higher if cable shoots for 1.9100 channel top.

Of course, could be wrong, but our $$$ is on it being right.

Enjoy the weekend. Today was a pleasant surprise for a change trading wise here.......

Cbj Jake 22:05 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
FWIW - Gold stocks coming up from the sewer. If you give them a real large pasture to gambol, you can make easy money. This said after great historical pain! Cheers

Cbj Jake 21:55 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Rmz - Got it! thanks

nyc rmz 21:53 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Cbj Jake, correction: 'AERVALE'='AERVAE', sorry for that.

Cbj Jake 21:49 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Rmz - thank you.

Cbj Jake 21:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac/dc - You still make me laugh. A subtle fighter of "complex ambiguity". I always love seeing,on subway, a "poor" secretary that has bought flowers to take home. I trust that kind of woman - don't care how she looks, I want to talk to her!. Same with one with humor, he /she usually sees both sides. Now that one is sane. Have a good weekend. gt

nyc rmz 21:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
21:32 GMT January 21, 2005
MIAMI OMIL and Cbj Jake// you can try (for kidney stones) natural 'HERBA AERVALE LANATAE', I got rid of stones for couple of weeks. Just follow directions. Hope i'll help. GL

Cbj Jake 21:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
MIAMI OMIL - Omil I am very sorry to hear about your kidney stones. As usual you have the much admired right attitude. Not much to do but paractice "trader watching"(patience). I found that "putting" the shower head on the kidney area really distracts the nervous system from the pain. I did a lot of that! I crawled into the hospital one morning with bad pain. They told me lie here and the dr. will be in soon. I gave him 2 min and yelled "Where the "..." is the dr!". A big nurse came in and just shot me with demoral. I got the relief but I still wonder at the cost. Instantly, I felt "big heatwave" in all my endocrine glands. These glands are very delicate and very sensitive for that kind of medicine. Most people I talk to have no idea about their internal workings, even fear it. Good Luck! - And, thanks for the goodwill you communicate and the calls I always read.Cheers.

SanFrancisco Analyst 21:22 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I'm sure a lot of people would say if you don't understand yet why and if you should/shoud not enter long or short euro here or after the weekend, you should learn more before you trade your money. Leaning on others recommendations has a limit for success usually, which is also ultimately not success usually.

Rye, NY et 21:19 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
North Pole pjsgirl 21:14 GMT January 21, 2005
Wait. It will probably move up some more early in the week. Wait for it to actually begin to move down ( A couple of hourly closes below the day's low). This is no market right for for anticipation. ...

SanFrancisco Analyst 21:15 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Sorry, have a lot going on, meant 3080-3115.

North Pole pjsgirl 21:14 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Is it a good idea to get in short now for next week, or wait until next week to get in?

SanFrancisco Analyst 21:12 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
That was for $chf. For Euro$, the same applies in reverse, with 2080-3115 being the sweet spot.

Mtl JP 21:12 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
pjsgirl 20:54 / up

SanFrancisco Analyst 21:09 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Need to see how 1830 to 1780 is treated. Obviously being sold but that should be a key region for continuation or short term resulution for an upside try. Quite possible we get a classic downside break, followed by retracement to the break, and then _.

Ltn th 21:03 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Poor US equity performance on week and today may put a damper on asia and europe on monday. Flow on to currencies would be variously tempered by fundamentals.

Rye, NY et 21:01 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
North Pole pjsgirl 20:54 GMT January 21, 2005
Welcome to the exciting world of fx! Imho...you should look for EUR/USD to trade down to around 1.2800 before a major bounce back up....GL/GT

Rio K 21:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
cable shows rally attempt failing on 8 hr chart no 10/21ema crossup

Rio K 20:56 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
euro is currently a sell IMO

North Pole pjsgirl 20:54 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
My earlier post was for anyone who has some ideas on which way EUR/USD is heading.

Rio K 20:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
cable shows to be topping in 1min thru 1hr chart - all lined up FWIW

Gen dk 20:45 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dublin CK 20:39 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Rockford BDR and thanks for your comment the other day (if it was you) regarding the repatriation of profits to US.

Slan (Goodbye in Irish)

CK

SanFrancisco Analyst 20:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Anyway, Considering those things, the implications for liquidity, trade, import/export, CB policy, the works are hanging in the balance.

North Pole pjsgirl 20:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I am new to forex trading and have been reading this forum for a few days. You seem to have good calls, so was wondering what is a good buy point for EUR/USD? Is it going down before going up next week? Any help much appreciated.

Rockford BDR 20:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
LMAO

Dublin CK 20:29 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Id prefer "The Good, the Bad and the FOREX Ugly"

Everyone have a good wend, stop slinging verbal handbags at each other. Im getting hit with make up.

Lets and try and keep it professional and courteous.

Stockholm AGuy 20:29 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
SanFrancisco Analyst 20:22 GMT: "Aguy - reviewing you archive I see the majority is either attacking me personally or taking jabs at the US/Bush/Trichet"

WHAT?!?!?

Anyone who's been here any time at all is all too familiar with your cavalier attitude to facts, dear TG, but this latest lie is unusally crude even for you.

Halifax CB 20:24 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Chicago Irish 19:50 GMT January 21, 2005
I prefer high noon with a six pack, fwiw.

SanFrancisco Analyst 20:22 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Aguy - reviewing you archive I see the majority is either attacking me personally or taking jabs at the US/Bush/Trichet. My post is valid and the views widely circulated throughout financial circles. It also matches certain government assessments very closely. In fact, I have seen spots on economic programs on television regarding the economic ramifications of these issues. I suggest paying attention to the economic elements of it, follow GVI rules of not attacking people personally.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:19 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
London NR 20:10 GMT January 21, 2005
Thanks for the kind words. Funny how the kidney stones started turning when I closed my aud/usd position with a loss. I did not know that FX could induce kidney stones too LOL. I am much better now after an all night wrestling match with the little critters. Funny how we forget when we have good health the joy of feeling good. I think we might take it for granted to many times. It is times like last night for me that let me know how lucky I am so far to have good heath. GT

Mtl JP 20:13 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
AGuy 20:04 / his is like having to pre-ambule/explain a poorly told joke.. LOL

Stockholm AGuy 20:10 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
SanFrancisco Analyst 20:06 GMT: "speaking my mind over what I see as the big picture for economics"

Bah! You may indulge in your trite old political progandeering all you want, but for the umpteenth time, do so in the Political Forum. This is the Forex Forum.

London NR 20:10 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:06/// Oooohh I can sympathise dude.I had kidney stones a while back, they tickle some!

SanFrancisco Analyst 20:06 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I realize its a bit touchy. But I really am speaking my mind over what I see as the big picture for economics going forward above and beyond performance related fundamentals.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:06 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I am sad to see the usual food fight around here. Bad day at bedrock as I was have closed my positions with a loss. While my kidney stones were closing my week out for me in a kidney stone fashion (tearing my insides up all night long). I was wrong about momentum for aud/usd pair as it plowed thru the key resistance and tested main resistance at 7690-7700. I am a buyer above this level. Eur/usd did not have momentum enough to break key support and has eyes set on testing the key resistance (3100-10). Main resistance (3300-3310) will be next if key support falls and I will be buyer above this level. I have intra-day indicators unwinding from O/S levels and Daily indicators are turning bullish but not there yet IMHO. Have a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. Peace and GT

Stockholm AGuy 20:04 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
SanFrancisco Analyst 19:59 GMT: "not making a statement, only speaking in a matter of fact manner"

But of course.

SanFrancisco Analyst 19:59 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I am not making a statement, only speaking in a matter of fact manner.

SanFrancisco Analyst 19:58 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
AC - The left views democratization and domestic disinfection withing the US as a bad thing, while using the military cleanzing of destructive elements as an excuse to play the "you bad agressor" card. Sso the results have a ceiling until it all comes to a head. The big question knawing at me has been the economic implications going forward. Clearly, the Japanese and US economies work in partnership, while the EU is more a competitor at this time. With EU economics in the dumper, and US/Japanese economics dragging forward something has to give. My conclusion to this point is neither elements intend to give in, and negativity out of the EU will increase to an aggressive posture as western economics/democratization pushes. Therefore, I see continued economic struggle at least 8 years out, especially in the EU, which was inevitable with or without US agendas. The US and other global partners pay a price as well, but again, I think its been forced by the EU policies and beliefs no matter what the US does.

Haifa ac 19:54 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
HIGH NOON is simply AMERICAN JUSTICE SYSTEM. You evil--YOU DIE!

Vienna GD 19:53 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin ... just back from work; what's your conclusio on todays action of the majors? Greenspan the reason?!?
btw your target 1.3060 - waoh great call!

Chicago Irish 19:50 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
High noon with a six gun versus high noon with a six megaton eh?

Haifa ac 19:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Chicago Irish 19:44 // Just about it. Gary Cooper in "HIGH NOON" Modus Operendi!

Gen dk 19:46 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Atlanta-South 19:45 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Wishing you a speedy recovery.

Chicago Irish 19:44 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Praise the Lord and pass the ammo ?

Haifa ac 19:43 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
It has to do with Bush's Beligerant speech warning all dictators around the world that their time is UP! It is catching on.

London. 19:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Just signed in to find all the aggressive posts below, was quite surprised as being directed at people who have been here for many years and coming from well respect contributors also - I suppose we just have to put it down to the end of the week stress. we all need each others input as its a lonely world in the FX market.

Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Been too sick to participate in the standard Friday food fight. Everyone be well this weekend, bYE

GVI john 19:33 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
CALENDAR
MONDAY, January 24, 2005
00:30 GMT- AUS- 4Q04 PPI, vs. +1.4% in 3Q04
05:00 GMT- JPN- BOJ Dec 16/17 Meeting Notes
GER- Jan preliminary CPI (date/time approx.): vs. +1.0%, +2.1% y/y in Dec
13:30 GMT- CDA- November Retail Sales

TUESDAY, January 25, 2005
00:30 GMT- AUS- 4Q04 CPI, vs. +0.4% in 3Q04 (+2.3% yr/yr)
00:30 GMT- AUS- Dec NAB Business Survey
11:00 GMT- UK- Jan CBI Industrial Trends Survey
14:00 GMT- CDA- Bank of Canada Policy Announcement
15:00 GMT- US- Jan Conf Board Cons Confidence: vs. 102.3 in Dec, see 101.5
15:00 GMT- US- Dec Existing Home Sales: vs. 6.940 mln in Nov, see 6.8 mln

WEDNESDAY, January 26, 2005
AUS- Australia Day Holiday
23:50 GMT- JPN- Dec Corporate Service Price Index, vs. -0.3% yr/yr
15:30 GMT- US- API and DOE Energy Inventory Surveys

THURSDAY, January 27, 2005
23:50 GMT- JPN- Dec Retail Sales, vs. +0.7% yr/yr
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Data
00:30 GMT- AUS- Jan Skilled Vacancies, vs. Dec -0.3%
09:00 GMT- GER- Jan IFO Business Survey
09:30 GMT- UK- 4Q04 preliminary GDP: vs. +0.5%, +3.1% y/y in 34Q04
09:30 GMT- UK- Minutes of BOE MPC Jan 12-13 meeting
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Durable Goods orders: vs. +1.4% in Nov
13:30 GMT- CDA- January Business Conditions Survey
14:30 GMT- CDA- BOC Monetary Policy Report

FRIDAY, January 28, 2005
23:50 GMT- JPN- December Unemployment Rate
23:50 GMT- JPN- December Industrial Production
23:50 GMT- JPN- December Tokyo CPI
07:45 GMT- FRA- Dec Unemployment Rate: vs. 9.9% in Nov
08:00 GMT- EUR- Dec (3 mos.) Money Supply: vs. +5.9% y/y in Nov
13:30 GMT- CDA- December IPPI
13:30 GMT- US- 4Q04 GDP: vs. +4.0 % in 3Q04, see +3.6%
13:30 GMT- US- 4Q04 Employment Cost Index: vs. +0.9% in 3Q04, see +0.8%

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 19:24 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito_valdez..
next time we can share my opinion according to your oipinion basis, but sorry.. I am lazy to type now.
seem you are full of knowledge person. I like that.
better enjoy for nice weekend. have a nice weekend for you all here.
cu..

Atlanta-South 18:55 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB-Tks for the response.

Halifax CB 18:49 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Atlanta-South 18:39 GMT January 21, 2005
Seriously - I'm not the person to ask. My work is entirely math. But as one always to hazard a guess - I ran my current model, and it is saying the lows (near 1.285) should occur early in the week & rise to 1.32 by the end.

Gen dk 18:42 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SanFrancisco Analyst 18:41 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Easy there Valdez, Irish is Irish, and a solid trader too. Suspicion is inherent to this forum as suspicion is inherent to trading eh?

Atlanta-South 18:39 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Halifx CB//For next wk what do you see for Eur/$? It sure looks like up from here. Thks for your valued input.

Eilat Dolphin 18:34 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
The day was predictable and even late to come in the sequence. The real question is how real does it look on its leg...?

Chicago Irish 18:33 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
No worries.Thanks GV for the clarification.

Eilat Dolphin 18:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Guys, have an Injdun pipe on me.

Atlanta-South 18:29 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
FELLOWS FELLOWS!! What happened to the constuctive forum for 2005?? It's Friday, so lets close out for the day & start the weekend. HAVE A BEER, SOME WINE OR A SHOT OR TWO OR THREE OF LIQUOR. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

Surabaya Medallion 18:29 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
My chart shows that we could hit 0.78 next week. So I am not too worry about the close level for this week :)

Global-View 18:27 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
This will end it. Chicago Irish only posts under his own name. I shouldn't have to repeat this. Irish, sorry for the incident.

Halifax CB 18:23 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
My apologies Valdez. I'm grumpy because I have to go lie in the snow under my Rolls (the one that looks kinda like a 97 Saturn wagon) & put in some plastic pin. Looks like it's beer time!

London Iain 18:22 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
ny amc 17.56

intraday 1hr and 5mins. intermediate (daily/weekly) i use daily and weekly.

trick in this market is knowing what to use. very difficult, i know, but if you see a trend (albeit short term) ma's work best. if, however, no trend then stochastics work well. a combination of both work well at times as well. For me, though, years of experience are the one benefit that a reuters screen can't give!! GT's

to the certain one's out there, again. charting isn't foolproof, but it works for me. This week has been an especially tough one, but thankfully one i have come out the other end with some profits and it's with this i wish you all a good w/e. again!

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:21 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
NYC..thanks for the info. To end this I am logging out..I did not intend to insult anyone but in a face to face I'd bet my shorts I would be treated more courtiously for giving my take than I was here for the last half hour. I have nothing more to contribute. Good day gentlemen.

Chicago Irish 18:20 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I am really pissed off now Valdez.Now you say I am posting under the GV handle?

nyc jk 18:18 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Valdez - my point is not how much money I made or didn't make, just pointing out that we have had quite a trend to start the year regardless of whether or not it was predictable to you. Certainly some people saw it coming, MTL JP for one stands out in my mind, having been on GVI record of calling for a 10-15% apperciation in USD index since the end of 2004. I am sure there are others as well. gd luck.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:17 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
No Gv, I am not calling you a liar. READ.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:17 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
tks Hal, true, your 4 week down rule has worked out. Your posts like many here are quite valued.

Look guys, I don't wanna start bad things here but I was insulted. Now if GV has its pets and doesn't play fair, fine..record being below. Have your pet vaccinated.

Global-View 18:16 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:13 GMT January 21, 2005 - Are you calling us a liar? Now you owe two apologies.

Halifax CB 18:14 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito
please check my posts re. the 4 week down rule. It's been playing out like a text book example of the statistical profile. I'm out of it BTW (we are getting into the choppy end game, so now I trade on a day to day basis). Happier trading....

Pecs Andras 18:13 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
we sure have a trend in the new year, but today (a Friday!) is weird. Look at the pound. It is just posting a 200 pip gain after the worst retail sale number in decades. I know that many people are not much interested in funnymentals, but cable is very sensitive to such data usually.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:13 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Chicago Irish// If I was mistaken consider this my public appology. If I was not....and I am reasonably sure I was correct, I would like an email from GV in writing giving me an appology. Is that satisfactory?

Chicago Irish 18:12 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Thanks GV.......appreciate your input.

Global-View 18:11 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Quito, you owe someone an apology.

Pecs Andras 18:10 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
London Iain 18:07 GMT January 21, 2005
Thanks and GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:10 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
NYC..true, from Xmas to now IS A TREND but it wasn't predictable. This is the first time the chart has dropped like this for so long and at such a vertical angle in the last 10 years of history. The trend was what I call a hindsight trend..I can't count the number of long E/$ posts that stopped out I read here since Jan 2. NO ONE SAW THIS and if one says they did it was by pure luck. Now we are in a quandry if it will continue to the mother support line drawn from 2002 (hitting around 1.26xx) or if it will just retrace to 1.36 or beyond. There is no telling.

Hey, I can fire up some various time frame charts, throw on some techs and make just about anything possible. If your charting won you bucks. GOOD. Glad it did. Really. But I see just as many or more losers here wondering wha'hawpen'd to my system as I see winners..I can count. Before we get into food fights I am signing off..what works for you guys works..hope you can do better than I do.

London Iain 18:07 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Pecs Andras 17:47 GMT January 21, 2005

I'm very sorry, I don't like giving my email out too readily because i hardly get a minute to myself at work as it is and prefer to post as and when i have time. That said, when i'm posting, please just ask me anything - i will always reply.

Basic risk management. 1. Always assume you'll lose every trade you're in at any one time and calculate the associated cost. 2. That cost should be a relatively small percentage of your pot and acceptable to you. 3. reward should always outweigh risk in a trade. 4. Always set parameters, maximum trade, maximum risk etc.

The ultimate goal is one of preservation of capital. Thus, when you have a bad day/ week you live to fight another day. However, when you trade well your pot grows, as does your trade exposure i.e. your pot can grow exponentially.

Very simplistic i know and post me next week, but i need to go now. 6.05pm here and a pint of the black stuff beckons.

Good night all.

Rockford BDR 18:05 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Sorry Chicago
Its a 50k account. Instead of opening 1 lot I open 5. Still a little new to this didn't mean to confuse anyone more than I am.

Global-View 18:04 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Quito, before you accuse someone of using an alias, I suggest you be 100% sure of your accusation. You owe Irish a public apology.

Chicago Irish 18:04 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Jay...please confirm to Valzez that I am not Boca.Cheers.

gold coast martin 18:02 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Boca Raton 17:54 GMT January 21, 2005
Now that you have my attention i like to take up the challenge that you issued to dallas gep about his records...since you mentioned my name in vain about 2 weeks ago i like to provide you with my audited funded records for the last 15 years,,,,only difference is it will cost you a lot more than $5000.00....and the money can be divided EQUALLY between all the FF MEMBERS who took time to post in the last 5 hours........Jay has my email address......

nyc jk 18:01 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:47 GMT January 21, 2005
...... Good bye trend trading...hello Dallas GEP!

EUR Jan 3 1.3580 high
EUR Jan 20 1.2925 low

You don't get much more of a trend in FX than that mate..........

Amman wfakhoury 18:01 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Budapest
are you there

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Thank you Boca Raton alias Chicago Irish for your kind assesment. I will be sure to place a plastic idol of you on my dashboard. Pax. Your day is coming....your fan club is growing...not nice to insult people..last warning.

Atlanta-South 17:58 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Valdez//Well said. Nothing is ever 100% especially in this choppy mess. If charts & math were totally correct WE would all be rich. I too have put aside trend trading & reverted to my old standby, short term in & out. Early this A.M. I entered wrong on EUR/USD was stopped out & am now on the side. Until MARCH will be completing other projects that have less risk factors. One thing is very clear to me 2005 will not be like 2004. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

Chicago IMT 17:57 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Rockford BDR - is that 5 lots or 5 mini lots. I wish you guys would stop speaking of lots and talk in real terms, which is actual size of position

ny amc 17:56 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
London Ian.....in this type of choppy market what timeframe on the charts have you found yourself to be most useful ? Thanks.

Boca Raton 17:54 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:47 GMT January 21, 2005

I suggest you do two things before you open your mouth. 1. Learn about the spot market. 2. Learn about the spot market.

There is plenty of liquidity this week, and this month. You are the kind of person I would love to play cards against. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Rockford BDR 17:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Nice job ICT ml
I've been getting in and out of all morning using 5 lots to make up for it. I wish I would of just walked away about 7am and let it ride! LOL

Chicago Irish 17:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Valdez:If you think I post under the Boca handle you are mistaken,although I'm honored to be mistaken for him.Jay can confirm that.

ICT ML 17:49 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
i dunno Valdez, my charts told me to go long euro and gbp before NY session started.....and I am a very happy camper with the results right now;-)......might even hold these over the weekend if they keep it up.

London Iain 17:48 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Chicago Irish 17:38 GMT January 21, 2005

exactly.

Pecs Andras 17:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Ian
Your posts have been very constructive lately. I would be interested in learning more about your trading style and methods as well as your risk management.
Would you mind if I contacted you through Jay?

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Bob L, what you and I failed to do was to factor in reality. I studied my charts. placed my short. stopped out. And high. It hurt. My error was to trade in this chop of totally illogical moves..Spotforex has been at this a long time as well and he like us is stymied by it. It seems that FX is suckering good traders into it's jaws by baiting us with whap appeared years before as good moves..now this year suddenly things have changed enormously and costly too. I think the best thing for me to do is build my new house and return to FX in February or March if and when this mess straightens up. I refuse to believe math to wager my money. You've got an excellent system yet you admit in so many words there is no point in trying to deal with this market.

What we don't have right now is a lot of liquidity because the big players have NOT executed their plans yet. That comes either next week or the week following. And even big banks aren't even making plans more than a week or two. Good bye trend trading...hello Dallas GEP! LOL

London Iain 17:43 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Valdez, please don't think i'm saying that charting is fullproof, it isn't. If we knew where and what was going through the market at any one time trading would be easy (i can't devulge too much, but i know that from my experience there are very few people around with such knowledge, if any - unless you count those with mega weight) . We don't and it isn't. Many people have different ways of trading and different methods work for different people. What I am saying is that charting + good money management (more specifically, i am provided with a robust risk matrix) works well for me.

Chicago Irish 17:42 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Was in Boca only once,stayed at some large pink hotel,apart from the colour scheme it was a nice place.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:40 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Chicago Irish//correct. a measured approach..not a forcast. Sorry if I gave the impression I misunderstood..but I didn't. How's Boca Raton btw..always wanted to visit there..rich place.

San Diego bobl 17:39 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez...GCMartin;
you have mail...
still can't discern today's action...could argue both sides of the trade today, so sidelines good place.

Chicago Irish 17:38 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Valdez.I think what Iain aid was that it allowed a "measured approach" to trading,i.e. useful for risk/reward analysis.

Mtl JP 17:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
valdez 17:23 / this is one close-to-the-vest-cards-type players' market. Do you reasonably think that a prop desk at a bank will tell you his margin call levels ? Or what orders the bank has on its books ? Would you broadcast it if you were the propdesk ?

Suggest you review the definition of "rumour", and its uses/application.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
London Ian// Charts work well in smooth buffered markets where their math CAN work..based on historical propensities, averaging etc.. But it is a real world with real variables..there is no math that can predict those particular things which make it AN IMPERFECT world, deviating constantly from a "norm". We can't expect math to tell us the future. If we could everyone would be rich.

London Iain 17:28 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:08 GMT January 21, 2005

I'd suggest that there are very few people, banks or financial institutions in the world who have a good grasp of overall flows. I get bits and bobs, but other than recent asian cb buying, nothing really warrants a mention. 1-2yds, let alone a few hundred mio USD gets swallowed up in this vast FX pool very quickly. I'd argue that charts actually work well, as they allow a measured approach to trading.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:23 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:19 GMT January 21, 2005 --->
If referring to GV as mkt plygrnd...a few. GT

HK [email protected] 17:21 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
All what is to the market, is whether USDX will close significantly above or below 83.6.

If it will close on 83.6.. will keep you wondering for weekend where the Mkt. will go next week.

Austin rb 17:13 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito

would be interested to hear about your trip It is one of the places on my list to see yet, just turned 60 so I better get going would also like to visit Machu Picchu

Van jv 17:13 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
stubbs manila----thanks, good comment
on fund. side the latest data/ Phil., Emp. St. Manuf. Uof M/ not impressive and some fear ec. growth peaking, administration and perspectives not impressive....it may be up for a while for EUR

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:08 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
am going to Galapagos this year 1st time. I haven't been posting because I haven't been trading much in this chop. I am no good at day trading anyway..without a trend I don't trade...and there has been no forseeable trend except that of hindsight. Charting can only be lucky in predicting the future...cash flow is the real way to know what for sure is going to happen. Unfortunately very few have access to flow..Goldcoast does...but he is the ONLY one who bothers to post who has such data. The rest glance at a gee-whiz chart. plug into a system and say what's gonna happen.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 17:08 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Surabaya Medallion 17:03 GMT January 21, 2005
0.7729 is sell level. be carefull.
with you..

saloniko 2005 nk...1.4688 17:07 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Have a nice week..

and Sell some USD/CHF for 1.1038



nk*!*

Surabaya Medallion 17:04 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Also for EURO 1.307 is also certain.

Surabaya Medallion 17:03 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I'm pretty confidence we can hit 0.7735 today for AUD. So for people who still Long AUD just wait for few hours more.

Surabaya Medallion 17:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Waiting for EURO to hit 1.3330 next week

stubbs manila 16:59 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
manila stubbs 19:41 GMT January 18, 2005
im starting cover my shorts as well for eur and gbp. aside from the weak reaction to the whopping tics number, oscillators on the weeklies are finally in the oversold region, divergences are showing up on the dailies of gbp, eur, $chf, and aud, eur and gbp both hitting the middle of the bollingers soon on the weeklies, and gbpyen and euryen both starting to look bid as they touch lower bollinger bands.
if anyone would like to comment on this, pls do so. TIA GT

quito, i hope this explains euro's movement. however, i still have no targets for the upmove. im pretty sure the dollar bears arent done yet, just resting. the charts to me only show a short term reversal. anyone want to comment? TIA GT

Budapest Daniel 16:58 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
amman rising again? :)

Surabaya Medallion 16:57 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Wait until 0.7735 to short your AUD. Still wait to sell Euro at 1.333.

Amman wfakhoury 16:57 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
anyone think EUR/USD will rise this hour

sgp cc 16:55 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Livingston nh 09:37 - Agree on your asessment. However, given the 80+B inflow in Nov and dollar still tanking that month, would imply that quite of those flows were hedged. Asia is still sitting on generations' worth of USD which haven't been hedged yet.. so even if China starts a currency basket, they'll still have more USD than they know what to do with...

Austin rb 16:55 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Quito


Just curious have you been to Galapagos Islands?

SanFrancisco Analyst 16:50 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Closed, better glad than sad. Not too much time left for reversal either and feel there is enough market sentiment supporting weakness in $chf and $cad, and strength in eur$ this session to omit desire for reversal of consequence late in Friday session. $jpy also still firmly sold. Who knows, maybe in a little bit.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
RiverFalls...hey, my pants weren't down..they were off and hanging on a branch! LOL

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:45 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Well, I stopped out on euro...was working on a really nice pre Mich short...if it's gonna see 1.31 then best get out while the gettin's good.
I can't see any rhyme nor reason for this totally eratic action this January..have not done a darned thing but waste my time trying to figure it out...Oh well. call it quits until Feb..out of this for a while before I go neg.

SanFrancisco Analyst 16:38 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Stocks turning down so trailing very tight.

River Falls_USA_ PB 16:38 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
valdez///accounts leveling for the weekend - don't want to get caught with pants down imo. gt

San Diego bobl 16:37 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez...
I have so many mixed signals today, including the euro. I believe option strikes/expiration and squaring is causing a lot of back and forth movement accross the board. This is characteristic of a market in transition and tough to trade for me. I have stopped on my two plays today and am staying out of it for rest of day.

By the way...sent you email; couldn't join in club today; let's get that squared up on Monday, ok.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:34 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
thanks Dr Q!!

Hong Kong Qindex 16:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:31 GMT January 21, 2005
EUR/USD : A projected barrier is positioning at 1.3039 - 1.3059.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:22 GMT January 17, 2005
EUR/USD : A projected supporting barrier is expected at 1.3039 - 1.3059 and a projected resistant level is positioning at 1.3131 - 1.3138. The odds are in favour of taking short position and the short term target is 1.2981.

Global-View 16:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
London Geda - check your email

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:30 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
OK what's the word on Euro anyone..Michigan disappointment couldnt have done this..mich data is not important.

hk new comer 16:23 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Mr. nt, after dma 100 is broken, then you will have barriers at 200, 300 followed?

SanFrancisco Analyst 16:14 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
lol, sorry, $chf

SanFrancisco Analyst 16:14 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I'm short tiny from 08.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 16:12 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   

next week

EUR MAY see 1.3220

aud may see .7850

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:12 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
melborne farmacia..where art thou? Would welcome your posts again amigo.

London Iain 15:57 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
eurusd barrier (price action not option related) at around the 20/25 mark reminds me of earlier in the week above 1.3100. I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent retreat in front of this level. Maybe worth a punt, but not for me..

sydney gvm 15:54 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
hmmm way too premature on dollar swiss buy - guess I better stick to my system and faggadabout intra day

london steamer 15:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin
i would second that.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:51 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Martin, I'd like to thank you for all the excellent AND FREE help..while others charge, you willingly give of yourself and your expertise not to mention the cash flow resources at your fingertips. On behalf of this forum I would like to thank you.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:28 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
GBP/JPY : It may move down faster if trades below 192.80.

gold coast martin 15:27 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 03:46 GMT January 21, 2005
10015=10315..correction

gold coast martin 03:43 GMT January 21, 2005
Good afternoon/evening...

With no US data out today and been friday my review post of yesterday that partly planned out yesterday may fully plan out today..Friday may induce profit taking and aquaring of position while re-positioning will be left until monday..In a choppy market such as this the first thing that comes to a traders mind is to take profit and preserve his capital as much as possible...the opportunities to re-enter exited trades thawere positive are numerous and often at better levels,..With this theme in mind ,,,i will look again for the euro to trade to 13021 before retreating back to resistance levels of 12914....currently @12947 it will stay in the 12947-12937 region until 1 hour before european open....YEN will top out @10378-86 before retreating to 10015 with a possibility of 10298....using the same timeframe as euro....gbp will see 18768 levels before retreating back to 18621-18608....using same timeframe,,,
HELLO.../ABOVE POST ON EURO ,YEN AND GBP direction both ways still apply....,,,
BTW...As aud has overshot today due fund related reasons it represents great shorting levels as i posted at the commencement od trading today....same applies for kiwi.....trade safe and now prepare for the return journey of the euro ,yen and to a lesser degree cable...with euro retreating so will the kiwi and aussie...

NOT AT MY TRDING DESK TODAY SO FOR THOSW QHO FOLLOWED THIS MORNINGS POST ON THE EURO ,YENAND CABLE GOOD LUCK AND ENJOY THE REVERSAL TO COMPLETE THE DAYS TRADING SCENARIO.......TRADE SAFE...TO ALL....

hong kong nt 15:21 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
100-day sma works well on usd/chf and usd/cad pairs this week...

London Iain 15:17 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
London Iain 12:21 GMT January 21, 2005
EUR needs to to turn HERE.


Well, the first part happened, but i'm still far from convinced of this move short term. Eitehr way, i expect 1.32+ in the next week or two.

River Falls_USA_ PB 15:16 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 15:12///that was the easy one...now we are at yesterday's high - does it break higher or reverse to trend. I suggest the latter. gt

Budapest Daniel 15:15 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
you were right... a lot of your cals are correct... :)
what do you see as a closing price for today?

Amman wfakhoury 15:12 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Budapest
It rised more than 30 pips
in just 10 mins

River Falls_USA_ PB 15:05 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 14:58///I do...how much depends on how many accounts need to get flat for the weekend. gt

Amman wfakhoury 15:02 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Budapest
lets see

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:02 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY Might go up from 103.00 area

Hong Kong Qindex 15:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:00 GMT January 21, 2005
GBP/JPY : Current expected trading ranges from my 22-day cycle Reference (14/Jan)


... // {188.94} - 190.70 - 192.46 - 194.22 - 195.97 // ...

Syd 14:59 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:52 -
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment eroded in January, according to researchers at the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment index fell to 95.8 in January from 97.1 in December. The increase was below the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists who had expected sentiment to rise to 97.4.

Budapest Daniel 14:59 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
whats your view Amman? Do you think it will?

Amman wfakhoury 14:58 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
anyone think EUR/USD will rise

sydney gvm 14:57 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
gold seems to be fluttering about pretending it wants to go up - doolar bid is my call

Halifax CB 14:55 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 13:38 GMT January 21, 2005
Eurusd is goin down, in a big way. 1.285 at close. I hope. :)

sydney gvm 14:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
95,8 Michigan Sent

wonderful - nw we have the view of 300 people in th eUS - lets see it move multi billion dollar markets

ramat gan bar 14:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
95.8 - below Exp.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
well. that was way above esitmate and prev...very very good usd news..let's see if Sr. FX will obey.

sydney gvm 14:51 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
RSI divergence not MACD on dollar swiss

Tacoma Timothy 14:50 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
95,8 Michigan Sent.

LDN LDN 14:49 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
95.8

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:49 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Michigan data due 2 minutes..when you see it post it please..have a post window up and ready...my news is down

ramat gan bar 14:48 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Is michigan out?

sydney gvm 14:48 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Dollar Swiss looks like a buy on 5 minute MACD divergence for 20 pips

San Diego bobl 14:46 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Thank you River Falls...
certaily not much going on this today thus far.

gl/gt

Hong Kong Qindex 14:42 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Keep an eye on both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:42 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 13:18 ///though I am a latecomer today, I had to commend you on this post - excellent reason/explanation for executing a trade! thx gt

sydney gvm 14:41 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex - thks - my system long from today's spike - been short Euro since late dec - saving my arse - getting chopped up major on energies recently - GT

Haifa ac 14:25 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Jordan

Hong Kong Qindex 14:22 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
sydney gvm 14:11 GMT - Hi! I like to see 1.2077 to be printed today or early next week.


Hong Kong Qindex 04:05 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.1218} -1.1456 - {1.1695} - 1.1934 - {1.2173} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 04:03 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : There are three key quantized levels in this series, namely 1.1695, 1.1791 and 1.1886. The neutral zone is located at 1.1695 - 1.1886 and the mid-point reference is 1.1791. A projected supporting level is positioning at 1.1218. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.2173. (Suggestion : Maintain a long position if the market is trading above 1.1695).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.1123 // {1.1218} - 1.1314* - 1.1410 - 1.1505 - 1.1600 - {1.1695}* - 1.1791 - 1.1886 - 1.1982 - 1.2077* - {1.2173} // 1.2268 ...


Curve B : ... 1.1059* // 1.1218 - 1.1377 - 1.1536 - {1.1695}* - 1.1855 - 1.2014 - {1.2173} // 1.2332* ...


Curve C : ... {1.1218}* // 1.1298 - 1.1377 - 1.1457 - 1.1536* - 1.1616 - {1.1695} - 1.1776 - 1.1855* - 1.1935 - 1.2014 - 1.2094 // {1.2173}* ...


Hong Kong Qindex 15:12 GMT January 18, 2005
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.2656} - 1.2945 - {1.3235} - 1.3525 - {1.3814} // ...


toronto js 14:22 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
does anyone know where amman is?

seoul kkk 14:12 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I don't trade during correction and it looks like BOC,K,J are doing the thing again there. When that happens, I have nothing to do but watch couple days.

sydney gvm 14:11 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex

HI Dr Q do you have any targets on Dollar Swiss? TIA

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:11 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
cad longing 1.2224 for 1.2300

Hong Kong Qindex 14:09 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 14:04 GMT - With a little bit of luck we may reach this target today.

Plovdiv Gotin 14:04 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
to Quindex/ You mean 1.2850/60?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:58 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
short cable 1.8690 for PT 90 Pips
Longing swissie 1.1915 to 1.1995

San Diego bobl 13:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Taking some EUR/JPY here @ 134.55; see it as low risk shot to make 35 and then may pick up some stops there. s/l right under 134.40 which has held since taken out this morning on a spike.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 13:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
EURwar of titans: Raden against Qindex! :) lol

Gen dk 13:40 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 13:38 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
friends.. eur/usd will go to 3081 or 3105.
just technical talking. no reason and explanation.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
The followings are additional information provided in our weekly cycle analysis. Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page. The first 2 weeks are free trial with no oligation.


Hong Kong Qindex 05:03 GMT January 19, 2005
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {0.7295} - 0.7445 - {0.7596} - 0.7747 - {0.7898} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 04:31 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.1784} -1.1959 - {1.2132} - 1.2307 - {1.2481} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 04:05 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.1218} -1.1456 - {1.1695} - 1.1934 - {1.2173} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 15:12 GMT January 18, 2005
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.2656} - 1.2945 - {1.3235} - 1.3525 - {1.3814} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 14:19 GMT January 18, 2005
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {97.38} - 99.23 - {101.09} - 102.95 - {104.80} // ...



Hong Kong Qindex 13:40 GMT January 18, 2005
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.8163} - 1.8433 - {1.8702) - 1.8972 - {1.9242} // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 13:33 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : There is a fairly good chance today that we can see 1.28xx in the New York session.

San Diego bobl 13:18 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin...
Reading charts and making trades certainly a subjective art/science. In reference to AUD/USD here is what I see and why I am short...

Weekly Chart...massive double top 2004; first week January 05 was very wide range engulfing bar down. From then to now rallies have been sold...read candles and only 50% at highs for retracement.

Daily Chart...50 sma broken to downside on second trading day of new year; it has held prices down since and has rolled from nice uptrend to top of hill and is now facing down. 10 and 20 ema are excellerating down.

2-hr. chart (4 hr will confirm)...last 15 days 7680 highs have been sold/ 7540 has been bought. Bottom line, a range trade where you sell high areas and buy lows areas until proven otherwise.

That's my 2-cents. Tech analysis subjective. Money management/position sizing more important than all the tea leaves imho.

Eilat Dolphin 13:01 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
B747/ Ok, good enough for me on a Friday, and since you all seems to be shorting the AUD/$ for reasons I can't fathom, on either daily, 4H or even 1 H, and since you even hope to see it below the 76 figure - don't ask me how; I am off to pray Neptune and attempt to worship his leggies.

malta rustler 12:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
good wattevertimeofdayitis everyone, especially to Talinn whose call sofar on EUR/USD was right on the nail

GOES B747 12:51 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 12:40 GMT // hi, it is not so hot (here) as in Eilat, don't mind walk extra as long I choose the walk.
if the walk pays, why should bother with walking/earning extra?!

gt

Eilat Dolphin 12:40 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
B747/ I may be mistaken, but this double position of yours seems to me like a single one.

In other words, you walk on the two sides of a triangle, sides A to B, and then B to C, instead of walking direct A to C.

GOES B747 12:33 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 12:00 GMT // good afternoon, don't get the point you raised; please explain me.

tia & gt

Roumeli anka 12:31 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Roumeli anka 20:22 GMT January 18, 2005
Good evening... usd still needs one more good correction before new highs. I dunno whether it will be a triangular formation here of some sort of flat correction, but we are not yet in a new impulsive wave, gt

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf181.gif

well... the correction is done and we are in the new impulsive wave, next fibo level at 1.2065 as new target

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf211.gif

Gen dk 12:31 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

athens kos44 12:31 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
hi folks traders. Short the eurusd at 129.60 and take the profit at 1.2840. Stop 1.3020.
gd to any one

San Diego bobl 12:29 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Sold cable 1.8642...
Martin...instant message?
Also, am short aud/usd at .7637 and .7640

London Iain 12:21 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
EUR needs to to turn HERE.

Gen dk 12:09 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London Iain 12:03 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
From earlier, eur starting to move to 20hr ma. a couple of hourly closes below and i'm bailing and will wait for a new week. However, until then I'm hopeful. Eur is obviously heavy, but if it can't make it lower then it should allow for a higher degree rebound.

Eilat Dolphin 12:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
B747/ Hi! Wait! If you are Aussi/$ short and E/$ long, does it add up as if you were:

-Aud/E short ?

Or almost the same, but with half a leveraged risk ?

(now its your turn to torture your cells.)

GOES B747 11:55 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 11:41 GMT // thank you, using AUD/USD shorts as contra to EUR longs ... let's see what will come out, hopefully it will be only good :-)

gt

gold coast martin 11:41 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
GOES B747 08:56 GMT January 21, 2005

As last 2 sets of AUD shorts added are past of the long term trading model stops are 70-95 pips wide from the entry levels.... fwiw...res,levels @7661 and 7693...short, medium and long term downside assures taking a short with high degree of reward Vs risk....Currently trading @7638 the daily top nay have been seen...if not 7661 will hold and more shorts added ,,,,,,,g/t.......

Tallinn viies 11:39 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
fwiw
from IFR: EUR/USD: US Names On Top Along With Rumoured CB Offers

Philadelphia Caba 11:39 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Good morning everyone!
Just sold small usdjpy @ 103.62, s/l 103.95 for test 103.00. GT&GL!

Makassar Alimin 11:35 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
gbp/usd might be a good short towards 1.8600 and 1.8550

London. 11:17 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Australian Dollar May Fall on Expectations Rate Gap With U.S. to Narrow
bloomberg.

toronto js 11:17 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
HOW usd/cad droped around 90 pips!!! what a profit :D

Tallinn viies 10:42 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
top should be in place now.
euro is ready to turn toward 1,2950/60 again.
selling in front of 1,3010/20 level safe bet as long as stop reverse over 1,3030. move 1,2920 will show us 1,2860/70 later today. imho

Hong Kong Qindex 10:13 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:12 GMT January 21, 2005
EUR/JPY : Current expected trading ranges from my 22-day cycle reference (12/Jan).


... // {128.39}* - 129.49 - 130.59 - 131.69 - 132.78 - 133.98 - 134.98 - 136.08 - {137.18} // ...

GOES B747 10:08 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD: initial target @ .7597

gt all

Gen dk 10:06 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GOES B747 10:05 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
took AUD/USD shorts

gt all

Syd 09:49 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
An overwhelming majority of Iraqis continue to say they intend to vote on Jan. 30 even as insurgents press attacks aimed at rendering the elections a failure, according to a new public opinion survey
The Washington Post

sg 09:45 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Iain.
Sudden drop in cable seems to offers some good buy (or good bye) level.

London. 09:44 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
UK Retailers Had Worst Christmas In 20 Years
U.K. retailers had their worst Christmas in over 20 years, making a cut in interest rates more likely. According to National Statistics, retail sales fell by 1.0% from November, and were up 3.2% from December 2003. That was a much weaker performance than had been expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week estimated sales rose 0.3% on the month and were up 5.5% on the year. The drop in sales from November was the largest December decline since 1981, when sales fell by 1.7%. The decline in sales over the crucial Christmas period confirms that consumer spending has been affected by the slowing housing market and five rises in interest rates between November 2003 and August. That makes a cut in interest rates more likely.

UK Press

London Iain 09:39 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
sg 09:29 GMT January 21, 2005

Sorry, hourly (not daily!) and simple (not exponential) ma.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:37 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 13:40 GMT January 18, 2005
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.8163} - 1.8433 - {1.8702) - 1.8972 - {1.9242} // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 10:59 GMT January 18, 2005
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : There are three key quantized levels in this series, namely 1.8163, 1.8702 and 1.9242. The neutral zone is 1.8625 - 1.8780 and the mid-point reference is 1.8702. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.8163 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.9242. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.8857).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.8086* - {1.8163} // 1.8240 - 1.8317 - 1.8394* - 1.8471 - 1.8548 - 1.8625 - {1.8702}* - 1.8780 - 1.8857 - 1.8934 - 1.9011* - 1.9088 - 1.9165 // {1.9242} - 1.9319* ...


Curve B : ... 1.8055 // (1.8163} - 1.8271* - 1.8379 - 1.8487 - 1.8595 - {1.8702}* - 1.8810 - 1.8918 - 1.9026 - 1.9134* - {1.9242} // 1.9350 ...


Curve C : ... 1.7893* - 1.8028 // {1.8163} - 1.8298 - 1.8433* - 1.8568 - {1.8702| - 1.8838 - 1.8972* - 1.9107 - {1.9242} // 1.9377 - 1.9512* ...


Livingston nh 09:37 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
sgp cc 00:02 GMT January 21, 2005
IMO the EUR strength has been a result of the overflow from Asia and not EU-US trade // It will be interesting to see what happens when the flow reverses - any China band expansion or loosening might be the trick

Hong Kong Qindex 09:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:28 GMT January 21, 2005
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my 22-day cycle (20/Jan) is 1.2802 - 1.3019. This range can be expanded in the following manner.


... // 1.2802* - 1.2830 - 1.2857 - 1.2884 - 1.2911* - 1.2938 - 1.2965 - 1.2992 - {1.3019} // ...


The odds are in favour of taking a short position.

Vilnius Val 09:35 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
What happened with GBP ?!

Bcn FXstreet.com 09:33 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $47.4 level, almost unchanged with yesterday’s levels. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed indicators short view and broke 10.500, to close around 10.470.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.30 level. Short term indicators show strength for the single currency, and it is reacting positively to that, recovering from yesterday’s lows. It is also true that the rebound comes from a psichologically key point, around 1.2940, where both 50% fibo retracement of the previous upleg and 2004 top meet. However, moving averages are now poised for a cross down, so it does look that the preferred strategy still is “sell on rallies”.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2502. 20-day is only 6 pips away from the 50-day, so a cross down is inminent.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral, mixed with divergence between them.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8730 level. Pair still capped by the 1.8750/60 area resistance, but managing to stay above its 50% correction level of the previous upleg. Only a break of 1.91 would negative its current negative tone, and that looks quite improbable as of now. However, and similar to the EUR, the birtish pound has short term indicators in his favour, so further gains can’t be ruled out, though one must keep an eye on the 200-sma and the big uptrend line as short references. We still see divergence betwen the two types of indicators in the watch.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8355. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1890 level. Talking Fibonacci, pair has been unable (as its european fellow currencies) to break above the 50% correction level from previous downleg, which looks to be the key level to determine that the previous move is likely to be over. Technically speaking it still looks good, while above 1.16, and it will look better once 1.20 breaks.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2294. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6945 level. As presented yesterday, we forecasted the more likely chance that the pair would go to test the lower line of the current uptrend channel, from where it has spiked up recovering some ground. The EUR looks weak against the GBP and the moving averages have started to turn, pointing to a possible cross down in the near future (in some days, at least), giving the pair a bearish tone, only halted by the fact that we still are in an uptrend channel. A recovery above the 50-day moving average is needed to gain strength.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6807 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, but they still hold a bullish cross, though the 20-day has started to move south.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral, changed today.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
If resistance (7650-60) holds back the Bull Run for aud/usd pair then 7590-7600 should be good support IMHO. GT

sg 09:29 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
London Iain 09:18 GMT
Is your trailing stop based on 20day or 20hr ma, sma or ema, TIA

Tallinn viies 09:20 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
as long as previous day high not taken out, bears feel safe and sound

London Iain 09:18 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
fwiw, i'm trailing eur higher and looking at 20day ma on hourly's. Two closes below and i'm out. Congestion could cause me issues between 1.300 and 1.3050, but as the ma moves up my stop should be in profit, which is always the end goal.

London Iain 09:15 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
if you are bearish eur, this is the level to sell from. risk is 1.3020-1.305.

Gen dk 09:11 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

slv sam 09:04 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
cad price action TELLS me to buy the euro here at 1.2990 for at least 150pips by Tuesday..GT

Budapest Daniel 09:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Amman

Eilat Dolphin 08:58 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Happy Friday all!

Eilat Dolphin 08:57 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Saloniko/ You'd have been better off to bet on wine, as it ages better than beer, since you may need to drink a lot while waiting for the 1.40 E/$ level...

GOES B747 08:56 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 08:44 GMT // good morning, willing to start trading AUD/USD ... where you positioned the s/l and t/p for this trade?

tia & gt

London. 08:53 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Expectation of US rate action pumps up dollar http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=564&fArticleId=2381491

saloniko 2005 nk...1.4688 08:49 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Goood Morning....

Finally i will winn one beer if Euro Fly to 1.4088....first...

Keep it Cold for me windie!

nk*!*

Amman wfakhoury 08:49 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Daniel
pls read the note in EUR/USD
and apply in GBP too

London Templar 08:48 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Model funds look to be short EUR at these levels since yesterday. Sell at 1.2980 with a 12 point stop. Take profit at 1.2940.
Look for a break below 1.2915 with a 1.12938 - 42 stop.

Still felling the downside today, especially as oil is forecasted to come off.

Amman wfakhoury 08:46 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel
GBP/USD sell below 18700 stop 18730 tp 18670-50
buy above 18745 stop 18710 t.p 18800
thks

Helsinki iw 08:46 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
The previous high of 1,2915/25 has been able to hold so far and as the daily stochastics are about to cross higher with some divergence, there is an increasing risk of a better correction. Decent risk/reward in buying EUR/USD on dips with stops in place on a clear break of mentioned support. On a fundamental note, I expect that the export of freedom and democracy will hit the markets radar at some stage.

gold coast martin 08:44 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
FWIW...adding more short [email protected]

Sonofmekel 08:43 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Sell eur/usd 1.2999 stp 1.3019 tgt 1.2829
Buy usd/chf 1.1839 stp 1.1824 tgt 1.2115
Sell usd/jpy 104.24 stp 104.31 tgt 103.52
Buy usd/cad 1.2265 stp 1.2243 tgt 1.2405

GL/GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:43 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
FWIW look for good resistance around the 7650-60 area for the aud/usd pair IMHO. Peace and GT

prague viktor 08:42 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
van Gecko...G.day mate..very lovely elephant hopefully he will stay in this position till the 1,25..14moons..is that meaning spring 2006G/T

London Iain 08:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Not overly taken by this small move up on eur, but, i am of the opinion that at least a short term low is very close at hand. If eur retreats i don't see sub 1.2900 for now before 1.31+.
I'm long. Stop 1.2890.

Budapest Daniel 08:34 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Amman do you have signals for gbpusd as well as for eurusd?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:32 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Cable Day Range
1.8753
1.8627

Amman wfakhoury 08:29 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
My signal for today
-------------------
EUR/USD Sell below 1.2970 stop 12995 t/p 12930-40
EUR/USD Buy above 13000 stop 12970 tp 13038-66

Note; pls confirm each level by close of 5mins 2 bars.

**********GOOD LUCK ********

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:28 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
maybe euro day range
1.2997
1.2911

sg 08:25 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Bought kiwi at 85, will add at 60, s/l below 40.

gold coast martin 08:24 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
FWIW...adding more AUD shorts[email protected],,,,,,,g/t

gold coast martin 08:19 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Austin rb 04:45 GMT January 21, 2005
.....Yes i do operate a closed fund....i have never recommended any one to anything when it comed to money....unless i had responsibilityfor it... there are some very good posters in the FF ,,,,So keep reading and rationale will follow in all your trading actions...g/t

van Gecko 08:18 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Having said good bye to .7050, the next intermediate attractor along EUR/GBP's route to m/t bliss is now down at .6800.. where Euro is expected to do some Blip & Dip line dancing with its cousin Gbp.. a sustained break below the line could trigger another multi-month slide down to the .6500 major attractor.. a potential 5 figure+carry payout for the 'SS Brigade' (Sell & Snoozers)..
Shell shocked Euro bulls can expect some near term relief, but with Gold & both guide dogs (Euro vs Gbp & Jpy) exhibiting good bias for Merry Go South m/t slides, Euro's all world dream flight to 1.4 may have to wait for another 14 moons..

heres a baby elephant in training..
:))


Tallinn viies 08:17 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
good morning world!
although I think euro got to form somekind of bottom within next days, I took profit and went short today at 1,2984. stop and reversa at 1,3034....
ok, let the game begin

LDN LDN 08:17 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
: Reuters-French Finmin-US Should Stop Neglecting Dollar

Ldn 08:10 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
UK economy facing 'major risks'

The economy faces pressures ahead, the BCC says
The UK manufacturing sector will continue to face "serious challenges" over the next two years, the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) has said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4191327.stm

sg 08:08 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
kiwi just traded above the last week high, ere the conties up to somrthing?

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 07:56 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
FOR EUR may see TARGET 1.3200

Syd 07:41 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Sold Aud 7610

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:40 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
usd/jpy short at same high

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Heading into Friday the market does not seem to really want to commit to either side of the coin. I believe we are headed for a slow Friday and hopefully a peaceful one. My comments for eur/usd pair still hold for Friday and add to that some shorts on aud/usd pair looking for 7510-20 and 2870-80 for the eur/usd pair to print soon. Peace and GT

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 2990-3000, 3030-40, 3070-80, 3100-10, 3130-40, 3170-80, 3210-20, 3250-60, 3280-90, 3310-20, 3340-50, and 3380-3400.
Retracement numbers are 3415-25, 3260-70, 3140-50, 3020-30 and 2865-75
Second wave retracement numbers are 3320-30, 3100-10, 2940-50, 2770-80 and 2555-65.
Long term retracement numbers are 3265-75, 3025-35, 2825-35, 2635-45 and 2390-2400 for now key retracement numbers are 2865-75 and 2770-80.
Resistance T/L 3030-40 and 3345-55. Support T/L 2810-20 and Main support T/L 2570-80 for now.
Support is around the 2930-40, 2890-2900 and 2850-60, 2810-20, 2740-50, 2640-50, 2570-80 and main support at 2460-80 for now key support is around the 2890-2900 area IMHO. GL GT

London. 07:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac I totally agree you cant compare , but worth a read - good to know what these people have going on in their head ( Nothing)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:35 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
short euro target 1.29

Haifa ac 07:30 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
London. 04:13 GMT // To compare 1980 to today is perposterous. Just look at interest rates. These writers HAVE TO spew something!

Ldn 07:25 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Car Bomb Explodes Outside Shiite Mosque In Baghdad

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:17 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
yen try
BB High 70 BB Low 142

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:51 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
1.8629 to 1.8745 is the range for now

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:46 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
GM all
Just trying to develope some cycle estiamtion to be used with BB
for cable high Try BB (86,2)
for low try BB(194,2)
time 15 minutes

Austin rb 04:45 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin
Having been here just a short time I am very impressed by the rationality of your analysis. I see you manage a fund, is this a closed fund and if so is there one with a similar approach I could recommend to others. Thanks

London. 04:13 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
)--Exactly 25 years ago today, the gold market peaked at its all-time high of $850. While reflecting on the silver anniversary of this singular achievement, some market watchers are now arguing that conditions could again be ripe to send the yellow metal back to this lofty level, if not higher.

Jeph Gundzik, president of California-based Condor Advisors says that much of the same impetus for the gold spike of 1980 exists today, especially in terms of geopolitical instability and the potential for a dramatic rise in oil prices.

He notes that the Iranian revolution and then the war between Iran and Iraq dramatically reduced oil production. Then oil price controls implemented in the U.S. during the Arab oil embargo of 1974 undermined investment in new oil production for much of the 1970s.

This one-two punch of supply shock and several years of under-investment sent oil prices rocketing in the late 1970s.

"In 2005, there is already a war in Iraq and it poses a daily threat to the country's oil production. It is extremely likely that oil production in Iraq will be completely halted at some point in 2005," said Gundzik, whose company provides independent risk analysis for emerging markets.

As gold is a popular inflation hedge, its price tends to be easily influenced by the oil price.

"More importantly, the war on terrorism has pushed the value of the dollar lower," he said. "The dollar's depreciation has acted similarly to the price controls of the 1970s by preventing investment in oil production."

Gundzik concludes that a spike in the oil price to $80 a barrel and a drop in the U.S. dollar to EUR1.60 would be enough to send gold back over $800.

Gold opened Friday in Hong Kong at $421.95, down from $422.70 overnight New York. Gold traded in a $375-$455 range in 2004.

John Mesrobian, president of Virginia-based Constantinople Advisors, also sees the flagging U.S. dollar and tighter supplies of oil and other commodities as setting the stage for a substantial gold rally.

"Over the next 30 days, we shall see gold make another move up for a retest as we expect the dollar to make another move down. We then expect a consolidation in gold for about three to six months as the dollar gets a strong dead-cat bounce," he said.

Mesrobian then expects the dollar to "roll over" and again start plumbing new lows, while gold reverses course and heads toward $592 by the end of 2005.

Looking further down the road, Mesrobian sees an even brighter future for this metal.

"We are bullish on gold for the rest of the decade and expect to see the gold price in four digits, probably in 2007 or 2008," he said.

Syd 04:06 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Toronto Alex sorry meant to say Jay Global-view Bookshop
LINK ---->> side bar list

Martin thanks for that

gold coast martin 04:03 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Syd 03:54 GMT January 21, 2005

Not really...it may see 7604-08 ....but that it is hardly worth mentioning from a trading point of view...the aussie stock market and the commodities index will give you a additional guide as to future direction...g/t

Syd 03:57 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Toronto Alex has a book shop --->> check out side bar for details of whats on offer here some specials available with a variety of Traders Books

Syd 03:54 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Martin,

Of special interest today will be the commodity currencies....AUD to see 7547 levels before visiting 7514 with further downside expected from there.......?? dont you see any upside today

Toronto Alex 03:54 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Ldn - must appreciated.

Have noted benchmarks..onward and upward. There's an ebook being sold on www.forexnews.com (sorry, think they're a competitor...) for $50 US...anything like that here? Claims to really be practical. Sorry..probably better in help forum.

Thanks all,

gold coast martin 03:52 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
7976kiwi=6976....

gold coast martin 03:46 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
10015=10315..correction

gold coast martin 03:43 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Good afternoon/evening...

With no US data out today and been friday my review post of yesterday that partly planned out yesterday may fully plan out today..Friday may induce profit taking and aquaring of position while re-positioning will be left until monday..In a choppy market such as this the first thing that comes to a traders mind is to take profit and preserve his capital as much as possible...the opportunities to re-enter exited trades thawere positive are numerous and often at better levels,..With this theme in mind ,,,i will look again for the euro to trade to 13021 before retreating back to resistance levels of 12914....currently @12947 it will stay in the 12947-12937 region until 1 hour before european open....YEN will top out @10378-86 before retreating to 10015 with a possibility of 10298....using the same timeframe as euro....gbp will see 18768 levels before retreating back to 18621-18608....using same timeframe,,,
Of special interest today will be the commodity currencies....AUD to see 7547 levels before visiting 7514 with further downside expected from there.......KIWI may see 7976 first downside level from current level of 7045-55...with further downside ...OF COURSE if dollar breaches the 12875 level which is unlikely today the acceleration down will be more rapid on these 2 commodity currencies....As i posted many times in the past ,due to fundamental reasons,these 2 currencies have got a lot of downside in the medium to long term......trade safe and g/l to all.....

Ldn 03:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Toronto Alex the benchmarks to watchout for :

Shanghai BC
Van Gecko
Zorro
Athens
Geneva

SanFrancisco Analyst 03:33 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Thanks to you as well Alex. By the way that guarded $jpy sell potential is as it is said, guarded. Personally I'm not taking it yet, especially considering the flows in asia tend to not see strong follow through more often than not. GT to all, time to call it a day.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:25 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:11 GMT January 18, 2005
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Three key quantized levels are located at 1.2656, 1.3235 and 1.3814. The neutral zone is 1.2987 - 1.3153 and the mid-point reference is 1.3070. A projected supporting point is expected at 1.2656. A projected resistant level is located at 1.3814. (Suggestion : Assume a range trading until the market is trading outside the neutral zone. Maintain a short position when the market is trading below 1.2945)


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.2366* - 1.2511 // {1.2656} - 1.2800 - 1.2945* - 1.3090 - {1.3235} - 1.3380 - 1.3524* - 1.3669 - {1.3814} // 1.3958 - 1.4103* ...


Curve B : ... {1.2656}* // 1.2753 - 1.2849 - 1.2945 - 1.3042* - 1.3138 - {1.3235} - 1.3332 - 1.3428* - 1.3524 - 1.3621 - 1.3718 // {1.3814} ...


Curve C : ... 1.2573* // {1.2656} - 1.2739 - 1.2822 - 1.2904* - 1.2987 - 1.3070 - 1.3153 - {1.3235}* - 1.3318 - 1.3401 - 1.3484 - 1.3566* - 1.3649 - 1.3732 - {1.3814} // 1.3897* ...


jakarta wd 03:24 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
hai world,

where gbpusd will be gone?

thanks

Toronto Alex 03:12 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Hi San Francisco, SG

I was impressed about your help with windie in help forum. Just reading Shanghai Bc on your recommendation in FX forum. Lots to learn. LOTS...and I am at the BOTTOM of the barrel.

Just wanted to let you know it's appreciated - I am lurking and trying to catch things -- still a lot of bits and pieces for me...wish someone would write a really good book on this. LOL.

SanFrancisco Analyst 03:08 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
sg kan 02:09 - Tuning in for a minute at a time I rarely do. Thank you very, very much for your kind words, I think we need more people such as yourself. My best wishes to you, you have made my day.

I see more $ upside has occurred in the last hours, although $Cad and $jpy are again toying with the possibility of selling some now. To be more precise, my system has three levels of intensity for indication, and on $jpy the first and second levels are in sell mode at this stage, the same for $cad, so a guarded sell prospect at current levels. (jpy 103.45)

Hong Kong Qindex 03:01 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is going nowhere in Asian session :-


... // 1.2903 - 1.2911 - 1.2935 - 1.2945 - 1.2965 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is going nowhere in Asian session :-


... // 1.2909 - 1.2911 - 1.2935 - 1.2945 - 1.2965 // ...

CAIRO AG 02:35 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Martin// Hi.. if you re around,.. any thoughts on kiwi in the next session??
thanks & GL

Hong Kong Qindex 02:28 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my 22-day cycle (20/Jan) is 1.2802 - 1.3019. This range can be expanded in the following manner.


... // 1.2802* - 1.2830 - 1.2857 - 1.2884 - 1.2911* - 1.2938 - 1.2965 - 1.2992 - {1.3019} // ...


The odds are in favour of taking a short position.

Halifax CB 02:18 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
hk jn 02:10 GMT January 21, 2005
Well maybe the best way to use them is to just ignore them (they are very much in the prototyping stage). But you are right, the darker the zone, the heavier the concentration of averaged responses in that area, and I've been treating them as a bias one way or another.

Sydney 02:16 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
SWISS-BASED Xstrata yesterday extended its $7.4 billion hostile WMC bid

hk jn 02:10 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Halifax,
does the grey and white color area shows anything? support strength etc? I understood it is statistical in nature, but how to make use of the chart to help trading? TIA

sg kan 02:09 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
SanFrancisco Analyst 21:59 GMT January 20, 2005
I've been posting some basics in Help for Windie who's been courageous to admit some trouble and look for assistance, if anyone is new to this maybe there is something there that would help.

Dear TG,
I'm very delighted to see someone taking the trouble to educate newbies on the help forum. Despite the fast moving forex and keeping track of charts and data, you are still able to help someone who is in trouble. It is difficult to see these kind of people these days but you are great man and not being selfish to part your knowledge.
I feel newbies can learn a lot from experienced traders like you and the others from this forum. Keep up the good work mate. GL >

Halifax CB 02:01 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
I've put up the latest Finson plots for the majors + 2. All times on the plots are in hours from the last reversal of the currency pair; the blue dashed line is the envelope of best historical fit, the green line is the weighted average of the top 100 fits. The logarithms of the weights are shown in the top plot.

There have been significant changes, especially in the time resolution and weighting, that appear to improve the overall accuracy.

The yellow line corresponds to the time the data set was run.

Happy trades.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:47 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
The current weekly cycle analysis will be expired at the end of New York session and my system will generate a new set of data for next week.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:36 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are



...{101.09} // 102.02 - 102.95 - 103.88 // {104.80} ...

Hong Kong Qindex 01:25 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
The followings are addition information provided in our weekly cycle analysis. Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page. The first 2 weeks are free trial with no oligation.


Hong Kong Qindex 05:03 GMT January 19, 2005
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {0.7295} - 0.7445 - {0.7596} - 0.7747 - {0.7898} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 04:31 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.1784} -1.1959 - {1.2132} - 1.2307 - {1.2481} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 04:05 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.1218} -1.1456 - {1.1695} - 1.1934 - {1.2173} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 15:12 GMT January 18, 2005
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.2656} - 1.2945 - {1.3235} - 1.3525 - {1.3814} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 14:19 GMT January 18, 2005
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {97.38} - 99.23 - {101.09} - 102.95 - {104.80} // ...



Hong Kong Qindex 13:40 GMT January 18, 2005
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Key Quantized Levels and Their Mid-Point Reference


... // {1.8163} - 1.8433 - {1.8702) - 1.8972 - {1.9242} // ...

HK [email protected] 01:14 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
london, herts jr 00:06 GMT January 21, 2005

If most of the money those oversea corp. are holding are in USD, transfer of those assets should not affect the USD price, it is only a transfer from pocket to pocket, maybe even in the same bank.
There must be a massive sell order from other ccy to usd.


Nothing to worry for longer term...That money will be spent to continue finance of the trade deficit, which will result to A WEAKER usd.
support at 1.27-1.28 important. if holds USD will continue it,s decline to 1.5640 projected target.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:09 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market will under pressure if it is trading below 1.2935.


Hong Kong Qindex 11:18 GMT January 20, 2005
EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of 22-Day Cycle (19/Jan)


... // {1.2173}* - 1.2364 - 1.2554 - 1.2745 - 1.2935* - 1.3126 - {1.3316} // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 04:21 GMT January 20, 2005
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Barriers


... // 1.2903 - 1.2965 - 1.3006 - 1.3026 - 1.3057 - 1.3088 - 1.3108 - 1.3134 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 04:18 GMT January 20, 2005
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.2535 // {1.2597} - 1.2658* - 1.2704 - 1.2780 - 1.2842 - {1.2903}* - 1.2965 - 1.3026 - 1.3088 - 1.3149* - {1.3211} // 1.3272 ...

Singapore Sfx 00:59 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
yup

LA BV 00:59 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Is Singapore closed Friday?

Ldn 00:18 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
JPN ECON: Nov Tertiary Activity Up 0.4%, Stronger Than Expected

Global-View Research 00:08 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
"US Firms Begin Repatriating Dollars"
·
EURUSD: The US dollar continues to firm against the Euro, trading as low as 1.2921 during the European trading session. The markets remained focused on President Bush’s Inauguration and have found respite in the lack of any geopolitical risks. News that Johnson & Johnson will be repatriating $11 billion of its past earnings from foreign activities back into the US in an attempt to take advantage of the reduced taxes offered under Bush’s American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 has spurred continued optimism for the dollar...See full story in our research section CLICK HERE

london, herts jr 00:06 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
both j&j amd phizer have over 70% in doll holdings in o'seas doll accounts..but this is the sart of a gradual trend...doll shud correct in the nxt 2 quarters.....125 eu doll maybe 122

Syd 00:04 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin , where do you see Aud trading today thanks

sgp cc 00:02 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
Livingston nh - Ref your post about which currencies were taking the brunt of the USD correction. I've been tracking the same thing, which made it harder for me to buy all the talk about repatriation, unless most of the corporate profits in Asia were kept in USD and not local currency equivalent.

knoxville dan-k 00:00 GMT January 21, 2005 Reply   
was away, however just pulled trigger with a +5 gain on usd/jpy 103.38

post trades help others, share

 




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