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Forex Forum Archive for 01/23/2005

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Rio K 23:53 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
reshorted cable @1.8779

Rio K 23:51 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
cable seems to be lagging euro on scalp signals for past couple days. is this the normal case or just coincidence?

Rio K 22:15 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
closed out position +10

Syd 22:10 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Economy moves towards slowdown
A prominent forecasting group has questioned Australia's economic prospects for 2005.Across the cover of its latest Business Outlook publication, Access Economics poses the question in these terms: " Exports weak, domestic demand wobbly - where is 2005's growth driver?"
The forecasting firm says that with housing prices and construction having peaked, the retail sector is entering the "slowdown we had to have".But exports are struggling to benefit fully from the strongest global growth in three decades. Even with the increased mining investment coming on stream, there might only be a partial offset to slowing domestic demand.That will leave economic output below trend in 2005 with no further improvement in unemployment and a worryingly big current account deficit.
Acess Economics

Rio K 22:07 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
I'm seeing that too. Watching closely. Minute chart looks bullish now; if it carries over to the 5 min I may reverse my position.

Rockford BDR 21:53 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
I thought so too Rio but I'm getting a gbp bullish ( although small ) signal on my 1hr chart and was wondering if it was just me. Everything points south but lately who knows.

Syd 21:43 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
CPI expected to show Australia's inflation rate remains comfortably at lower end of RBA's +2% to +3% comfort zone.. RBA kept rates on hold at 5.25% throughout 2004.
Macquarie Bank

London Jonny 21:43 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Hi, anyone know of a WAP site where I can get live /$ spot prices. All the best,

Jonny

wellington 21:35 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
http://www.censored.com/Site/Analysis/Forex/DBAnalysis/forexdaily21jan05.pdf

censored censored

wellington 21:34 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Deutsche Band outlook

Ltn th 21:28 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Bargain hunters may make some competition for the big guys on ASX today. Be interesting.

Rio K 21:27 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
re GBP/USD: one could reasonably expect a decline to test the 13 month ema(1.8280). This is very conservative IMO.

Monthly chart shows very similar characteristics as the beginning of 1981, divergences and all. Overall I'm a dollar bear but have to consider healthy oscillations.

Currently short from 1.8797, but that's just playing 5 and 15 minute chart. Could bail anytime if follow thru signals don't confirm.

Syd 21:22 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Ltn th have not seen any just yet but will post anything in connection with it if seen

Ltn th 20:56 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Syd. I note the reference to "Premature Rally" by Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research in London at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Ltd. in your link.
The US repatriation has been going for some time now. Any idea of liquidity of remaining overseas funds? Any fire sales could become strategically messy despite overall oversupply of equity funds.

Rockford BDR 20:33 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Anyone's thoughts on GBP/USD?
Thanks

Syd 20:31 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
It is estimated that US corporations are holding $500billion of foreign earnings abroad, of which 30% could be repatriated this year.
Reuters

Syd 20:21 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
LINK``We may still see the dollar gain to $1.28 per euro in the next couple of days.'' Shankar, a survey participant, recommended buying the dollar.

Halifax CB 18:11 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
eurusd thoughts - before I go out to play in the snow (lovely blizzard going on), I thought I'd just put some stats forward that I calculated this a.m. I'll put up charts &/or excel files when/if I get back, but here they are:

Setting priors for statistical analysis is critical for reasonable results; for this sample we left it simple. We extracted the four week highs from a eurusd data base (since we are currently working on the basis of the last high being at least a four week high in both directions), extracted the lows between those highs, and then estimated the 2 following: the depth of the next possible low, and the delay until it arrives. Estimates for the current sitution were then developed through linear regression; A) below uses all the points; B) tosses out the most extreme deviations from the regression in A), and recalculates. There are not a huge number of events to start with (17); and when all is said and done A) below uses 15 points & B) 12. So take it with a bit of salt.

A) gives an estimated eventual low 75 days after the peak, with a low value in the 1.24 region
B) is a little more conservative, with an eventual low 72 days after the peak, and a low value in the 1.285 region

more to come, later.....

hong kong nt 15:01 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
EURO -- likely to see lower lows and lower highs for USD bulls to orderly extend their footsteps downwards, next lower high may target 1.325-1.330...

Hong Kong Qindex 10:23 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:58 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:34 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Hong Kong Qindex 09:33 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:32 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:18 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

taian 05:42 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
my

Lancaster dh 05:27 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Predicting $ rally this week with traps squeezing longs.

Overwhelming numbers and pos betting on further $ decline makes a good trap. Predicting usdjpy (104) usdchf (1.20) and usdcad (1.24)...

This opinion is based on the belief that majors will consolidate in tight ranges until the FOMC rate announce.

Sentiment data still suggest economy is in growth ranges and Friday's cross the board decline was mainly driven by European profit-taking.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:10 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:09 GMT January 23, 2005
Hang Seng Index : Heading Towards 13170


HSI : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are as follow :-


... 12613 // {12799}* - 12985 - 13170 - 13356 - 13541 // 13727 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:07 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
DJIA : Heading Towards 10085
Albert Cheung - Saturday at 8:18 AM

DJIA : Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels


... // {9866}* - 10085.1 - 10304.2 - 105233 - {10742.4}

Re: DJIA : Heading Towards 10085
Albert Cheung - Saturday at 8:24 AM

It is likely to happen if the market can penetrate through 10304.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:05 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:04 GMT January 23, 2005
Nikkei-225 : Anything below 11273 is negative for the market.


Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels


... 10462 // 10732 - 10868 - 11003 - 11138 - {11273} // 11048 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:32 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:31 GMT January 23, 2005
Comex Copper : A Pullback is Imminent


Quantized Level of Monthly Cycle


... 1.4114 // 1.4269 - 1.4424 - 1.4579 - (1.4733) - 1.4888 - 1.5043 - 1.5198 // {1.5353} ...

Hong Kong Qindex 01:36 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:35 GMT January 23, 2005
Crude Oil : A projected supporting level is positioning at 46.02 - 46.13.


Quantized Levels of Monthly Cycle


... 46.13 // {46.83} - 47.54 - 48.24 - 48.94 - 49.64 // 50.35 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 01:07 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:07 GMT January 23, 2005
Comex Gold : Projected Supporting Point 404.9


Quantized Levels of Monthly Cycle


... 404.9 // {411.9}* - 419 - 426 - 433 - 440.1 // 447.2 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 00:22 GMT January 23, 2005 Reply   
USD Index : Heading towards 84.98.

 




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