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Forex Forum Archive for 01/28/2005

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Rio K 23:55 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Auckland peat, well the pros around here say to keep it simple and I've found that to be the best advice. What works best for me is looking for a rounding off pattern( basically a trendline break) after significant moves, then riding the drift back to or past the 200ema, my bread and butter

GVI john 23:53 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
CALENDAR
MONDAY, January 31, 2005
10:00 GMT- EUR- Jan Business Sentiment: vs. -4 in Dec
10:00 GMT- EUR- Jan Consumer Sentiment: vs. -13 in Dec
11:00 GMT- UK- Jan CBI Distributive Trades Survey
13:30 GMT- CDA- November GDP
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Personal Income: vs. +0.3% in Nov, see +0.4%
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Personal Consumption: vs. +0.2% in Nov, see +0.7%
15:00 GMT- US- Jan Chicago PMI: vs. 61.2 in Dec, see 59.8

TUESDAY, February 1, 2005
AUS- Reserve Bank Meeting
23:50 GMT- JPN- Forex Reserves
00:30 GMT- AUS- December Trade Balance, vs. -A$2.66bln
09:00 GMT- EUR- Jan Manufacturing PMI: vs. 51.4 in Dec
09:30 GMT- UK- Jan Manufacturing PMI: vs. 53.7 in Dec
15:00 GMT- US- Jan ISM PMI: vs. 58.6 in Dec, see 57.5
15:00 GMT- US- Dec Construction Expenditures
2-day FOMC meeting begins

WEDNESDAY, February 2, 2005
22:30 GMT- AUS- Reserve Bank Decision
23:50 GMT- JPN- January Monetary Base
08:50 GMT- GER- Jan Unemployment: vs. +17K (SA), +2007K (NSA) in Dec
15:30 GMT- US- API and DOE Energy Inventory Surveys
19:15 GMT- US- FOMC decision

THURSDAY, February 3, 2005
23:50 GMT- JPN- 10-yr JGB Auction
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
00:30 GMT- AUS- December Building Approvals, vs. -0.3% in Nov.
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
13:30 GMT- US- 4Q04 Productivity: vs. +1.8% in 3Q04, see +1.9%
15:00 GMT- US- Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: vs. 61.1 in Dec, see 61.0

FRIDAY, February 4, 2005
00:30 GMT- AUS- December Retail Trade, vs. +0.1%
09:00 GMT- EUR- Jan Services PMI: vs. 52.6 in Dec
09:30 GMT- UK- Jan Services PMI: vs. 54.9 in Dec
10:00 GMT- EUR- Jan “flash” CPI: vs. +2.4% y/y in Dec
11:00 GMT- GER- Dec preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. 2.4% in Nov
12:00 GMT- January Employment:
Jobs: vs., 7.0%
Rate: vs., +33,500
12:45 GMT- EUR- ECB Governing Council decision
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Employment:
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +157,000 in Nov, see +185,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.4% in Nov, see 5.4%
Feb 4-5 G7 meeting begins in London

Auckland peat 23:42 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Rio K
as a novice i find that sort of elucidation immensely useful
I am not trained as a technical analyst and dont understand a lot of what is said on this forum.... but I am able to understand moving average crossovers and see them as indicating trends. Clearly the shorter the time frame the more responsive the moving average and the difficulty is to determine what length of time frame constitutes a trend of sufficient longevity to participate profitably in.

Rio K 23:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD:
technically,,the downtrend line broke on the daily BUT 3 consecutive lower highs,,
weekly shows a double top which suggests to me a trip down to test 200ema(.6641) is coming and due-even testing the 89ema will bring it to .71ish,,there is a whole lot of upward momentum on the weekly to overcome…..monthly shows strong signs of a blowoff rally coming AFTER this current, seemingly to be somewhat deep decline, I’d call .69ish springboard support around anticipated 50/200ema MONTHLY crossover( looks unavoidable-momentum)…looks like to me blowoff rally will take out 1996 high of .8210….the way I read it, it’ll take around 6 months of grinding down before my anticipated blowoff rally starts….this scenario also gives the dollar time to correct up before it resumes downtrend

maybe obviously simple, but the clearest signals I get is watching the flow and interaction of several moving averages- successive crossovers confirm continuation, used with trendline analysis mainly….I’m learning to play off the 1 and 4 hr charts using the 5 min chart to pinpoint entries/exits…I do really well when I’m totally disciplined in waiting for my favorite 5 min signal of simply MAs jumping/falling over/under each other….when price compresses between 20/50ema or the 50/200 just before cross. .I’ve found trying to just play divergences, the trend is likely to keep moving 50% more AFTER the divergence so I use divergences as an early warning to watch for a trendline break- then I make my move anticipating a first MA cross to confirm whether I was right or not…my greatest strength is feeling the momentum of the relationship of different moving averages.. and it’s hard to imagine big money manipulating these signals much…I also notice about 2/3 of time things move in bursts of 3 – e-wavers ha ha…I still need to learn pivot point. I gleam a hint that combining pivotpoint and fibs may be worth the trouble.

I found that even though I concentrate on cable, my easier trades for the week were in another I found to be a good trader, eur/jpy. Hmmm, maybe clear signals are more important than falling in love with a particular pair- or one that doesn't whip opposite before making big moves

just rambling…have a good weekend all

lax-lgb SNP 20:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
aud
expect £/$ to stay bid atop 1.877x but £/¥ is atop 195 so we might never go back there

Rio K 20:42 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
my strategy is getting into position before close so people analysing charts over the weekend will cause follow thru on what should happen early in week - is this crazy?

syd aud 20:27 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
any thoughts on gbp/usd in next hour ? to help setlle my nerves :)

Rio K 20:06 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
shorted spike @.7998 on AUD/JPY

Rio K 19:58 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
any thoughts on aud/jpy as a short-looks tempting

lax-lgb SNP 19:38 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
considering how well mkt has stayed above weekly 21 sma since early 2002 take-off, i wonder how many picked up CHFs or €UROs this week

Rio K 19:37 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
stopped out cable short -15- no more relying on euro as a lead-bad thing to do

Rio K 18:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
I think it will see 1.2225ish before the big move up..my indicators say it reversed to long on daily so a medium to longterm move up seems eminent...too many dollar bears out there- a heavy correction should knock alot out of the market

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:58 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
be carefull with usd/jpy when touch 103.34, buyers are there, also gbp/usd when touch 1.8875.. sell !!

lets go !!./. chartquake..!!

Gen dk 18:55 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 18:52 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
hello.. still interesting with usd/cad and gbp/usd chart now.
friends.. I got strong recommend to buy usd/cad to get 2445 and gbp/usd will get to 1.8800 again or little below.

you can catch that chance from now. I think will work soon.
lets see...!!

San Diego bobl 18:48 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
On USD/CAD...
Here is a big picture look and then some daily doses with today's profile...

USD/CAD traded in 5-year range of (approximate real body numbers) 1.4500 - 1.6000.

That was broken to downside with deepest impulse to 1.2681;
It then retraced up to 1.4005.

Now, add these two numbers together and you get 2.6686. Subtract the breakdown level of 1.4500 and you get...
1.2186. That was original target down...market overshot by 400 pts. or so.

I waited, and when 1.2186 regained, starting long position. Resistance and selling came in @ 1.2360 (now major support) and that took us down to 1.2013. Add these, subtract absolute low of 1.1716 and you get first target of_____
1.2657. That is my first real target and leg out.

The 1.2900 level is not rocket science...it's the approximate area of the 50 sma on the weekly, which on time sequence/cycle models is due for a visit in next few weeks. I am targeting this level to be achieved.

Now...on daily...we have an elevated "W" pattern that projects 1.2900 area IF we close two consecutive days above 1.2480. Simple enough.

Today, we have option liability @ strikes of 1.2430/1.2450/1.2465...go off tonight. You can clearly see today's activity around these levels. Note this years futures volume activity clearly favors bears versus US$. We are hanging on decision zone both in cash and futures now.

Evidence to me suggests usd wins this one in weeks ahead. That is part and parcel of my usd/cad logic and position. As an experienced trader, I will ALWAYS LOSE MY OPINION BEFORE I LOSE MY MONEY if possible. In this particular case, I have the cushion to garantee something positive on this possie.

Bottom line...I like usd/cad prospects, however, as always...
caveat emptor...if you get involved in any trade, have YOUR risk management in force.

gl/gt

Vienna GD 18:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl ... have similar positions! but also accumulating usdjpy shorts, imho a st, mt, lt oneway bet.

syd ney 18:39 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
any picks for eur next hour ?

San Diego bobl 18:30 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Rio K...
good post; thank you. Love to have concrete information to review.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:21 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. Peace and GT

Rio K 18:19 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 17:40 GMT "may even jump the 2-hr head and shoulders currently on neckline. " I'm anticipating that neckline to play out

That's the very reason I shorted a little bit ago @ .7740, slowly falling thru the 15 min 200ma too( just did :)

also I notice the euro daily is not breaking thru all the resistance as easily as I was anticipating, 8hr 200ema is holding as resistance while other EMAs move down--I anticipate cable will follow these leads and am short from 1.8854- my beginner thinking feels that more people trade euro so it leads cable; seems to work so far most of the time

USD/CAD looks extremely bullish! wow...looks about to fly..if that's any indication of upcoming dollar performance. look out....making me think back to bearish bias on euro and cable as resistance may be holding steady...next couple of 8 hr bars should be very telling

Istanbul Emre 18:04 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Sydney

Thank you for the comment on China.

I wonder whether the long view on GBP is positive in general (and JPY in specific)

San Diego bobl 17:40 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Austin and LA...
In brief, I am very net long Canada (usd/cad)...have built a good size position there over time and remain with target weeks out. As just mentioned, I am putting profiles together and will elucidate what I read in the tea leaves next half hour.

I am also short the nzd/usd...my system is a seller, and someone in here much smarter than I on this pair likes the short side...I respect that and listen. Aussie consistently sold above .7800...however, technically speaking, there is large daily ascending wedge pattern, which could resolve to upside. Someone smarter than I does not think this will happen, so I am eyeballing Aussie with interest and may even jump the 2-hr head and shoulders currently on neckline.

All the majors...eur/jpy/gbp/chf...probably have more risk in them due to oft-mentioned today international potential liabilities.

gl/gt

bkk david 17:36 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
now usd up up up because dow down down.

Capital back to center at NY

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 17:34 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
have a nice week end.
see u later.

San Diego bobl 17:31 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
FWIW...
I am going to write a commentary on Canada in half hour or so. I am looking into today's profile and will attempt to identify areas of interest/concern. I am very bullish...yet I always always have my pain threshold, and respect it...period.

Sydney ACC 17:31 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
What will be the ramifications from a evaluation of the Reminbi?
1. Higher export prices – Chinese labour will become more expensive.
2. Consequently there will be a reduction in exports as buyers adjust to the higher prices.
3. Increased consumption in China of imported goods as the Chinese adjust to lower import prices.
4. The higher incomes of Western consumers suggests that consumption overall may very well decline e.g. how many Chinese can afford plasma television screens.
5. Raw material prices in USD may very decline due to reduced global consumption – AUD declines.
6. A great deal of hot money has already flowed into currencies such as AUD, NZD and JPY, these being the most liquid and believed by the market to be the most likely to benefit from a revaluation. As almost everyone tries to lock in their profit the opposite will occur. Look at what happened when AUD and NZD were devalued in the early 1980’s there was a rush of money bck into the currencies and minor adjustments were made erasing part of the adjustment.
7. So in a nutshell, AUD, NZD and JPY may very well decline, USD will remain buoyant, certainly I don’t see rates of USD/JPY at sub 90.00 or 95.00 likely and even with major Asian currency realignments against the USD the AUD trading above 80 US cents.
8. As the US consumer adjusts to higher prices, reduced consumption, hopefully greater savings and a reduction in the trade deficit.
9. And don’t worry the Chinese will do it when they are ready not anyone else, look at what has occurred over the last twenty years with the HKD it has been buffeted by rumours of devaluation and revaluation and the peg has never been adjusted since its introduction in 1980.

Austin rb 17:29 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
just curious what your choices would be

Austin rb 17:28 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
San Diego

Los Angeles ss 17:28 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
bobl -- which pairs would those be? would also appreciate your thoughts on usd/cad at these levels. TIA

San Diego bobl 17:26 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Lots of potential market jolts...
I prefer exposure to minor currencies that are subject to less international emotion when exposure is particularly sensitive.

gold coast martin 17:15 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
weekend.

Lima 17:06 GMT January 28, 2005
NO..just speculators and retail platforms trying to squeeze one last drop out of this weeks market......

The fact that we have a very risk-laden weekend ahead (iraq election,davos meeting,opec meeting} may prompt some speculators to go into safe haven currencies such as the swiss and also into gold in the evennt of negative news over the week end which can have impact on the major pairs..especially the dollar being the reserve CURRENCY).....g/t

Istanbul OEE 17:09 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
BOULDER DAT

Case, I mean, China revaluation.

Apologies

Istanbul OEE 17:07 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
BOULDER DAT:

Thank you for your kindness. All the best.

What made me wonder is the fact that GBP and USD, at times, follow a pattern. Common that is. Would that generate a pressure for GBP since JPY could be the yielding asset in such a case.

Have a nice weekend.

Lima 17:06 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Martin,

there is no news or fundamental reason for this movement???

gold coast martin 17:05 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
FWIW..Market is preparing for another round of selling during last hour of this session.....g/t

Lima 17:03 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
why gbp is going up this way??

Eilat Dolphin 16:57 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
martin/ Hi! I see you guys had fun today. Again!
It's well deserved... as the script lines look cab-balistic.

Enjoy your week end all!

Boulder DAT 16:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Istanbul OEE 15:55 GMT January 28, 2005

Not so sure that cable will see a great deal of immediate affect from a devaluation. The Asian currencies will get the most movement from a devaluation. From there, you may see the euro, swissy, and cable move higher against the dollar. Your biggest moves will come from the yen, though. If the movement in the yen is very pronounced, then this will be very negative for the dollar across the board.

GER ad 16:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
USD/CAD for the moment IMHO,
Buy 1.2375/80 S/L under 1.2340
Sell 1.2460/65 S/L over 1.2515

Los Angeles ss 16:45 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
bobl -- I meant your thoughts on usd/cad. TIA

Ney york 16:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
i am new here. i need someone to teach me how to trade forex

Los Angeles ss 16:39 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
bobl-- your thoughts on cable till the close of the ny session?

gold coast martin 16:35 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
SS...San DIEGO bobl is best to ask...if i knew enough about it i would trade it.....g/t

Los Angeles ss 16:30 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Martin, your thoughts on usd/cad at these levels?

Singapore kingpin 16:28 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
[eur/usd 1.3013] the trading range 1.293-1.3125 is about to break to the upside towards the 1.32-1.34 range so keep up the accumulation at current rate 1.2970-1.3013.gt

Rockford BDR 16:26 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Thanks GC

gold coast martin 16:22 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
ROCKFORD......CABLE...Looks like closing under 18830 ....not much upside ...not many buying orders....monday is a different story
ADELAIDE RAY.....the best we are liable to see for the aud for the rest of this session is 7728 ........ monday sub 77....
g/t

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 16:19 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
friends.. I hope today is good day for u here. :-)

San Diego bobl 16:17 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Looks like the market has settled into...you guessed it...a neutral chop zone! The eur/usd is sitting smack in the middle of the last 10 days range trade. Good time to take a break and feed the body/mind. Personally don't see anything new to do for the moment however I am always interested Friday closes.

There is an old adage for old school types...
smart money buys/sells at the end of day...
smarter money buys/sells at the end of the week...
really smart money positions end of the month...
then quarterly, annually...you get the idea.

The base function here is that...you have more information at the end of a trading period than at any other time of trade session. Anyway...a little break for me and then will revisit the ubiqutous churn.

milan mario 16:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   


position buy usd-jpy fill 103.10 13.55 GMT stop loss 103.10 t/p 103.95

ADELAIDE RAY 16:13 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
To Goldcoast Martin:

I must add, having you around in this forum and being so generous to share your thought on entering trade is really a great asset for others.

I learn and benefit a lot from you.

Thanks!

ADELAIDE RAY 16:08 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Goldcoast Martin:

I'm new in this market, your previous trading tips helped me a lot!

Have shorted aussie at .7738, do you think will see .7705 again today?

Ta :-)

Rockford BDR 15:56 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast
Do you think cable will retrace back to 8850 area and consolidate there for New York close>?

Istanbul OEE 15:55 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hello from Turkey. I have posted a message but it came right in the middle of a hectic market activity I guess because there was no response to it. I was wondering whether someone could tell me the positive or negative impact on GBP when China revalues? I appreciate your time. Thanks

Tulsa 15:50 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hi amigos,

all positions closed, lets enjoy the week end!

Peace and Love.

paramus,nj jf 15:49 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
templar - as long as you learned something and can return next week - things will turn ard - gl -

London Templar 15:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
I cant say I have had a very good week - so for every winner there is also a loser. And I am stuck right in the thick of it this week!

So to all of you winners, losers and could have beens....
Lets hope we all have a good weekend!

Laters players!

gold coast martin 15:43 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 15:36 GMT January 28, 2005
ahhhhhh!....i wish i knew about the caddie.....lol......

Philadelphia Caba 15:42 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD:
The existence of a recent range-defining 1.2900-1.3150
exotic Double No Touch option is helping weigh on the 1mth. The DNT is slated to expire ahead of next week"s G7 meeting in London (which begins on Friday, through Sunday).

gold coast martin 15:41 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Tulsa 15:38 GMT January 28, 2005
ITS FRIDAY....that should sum up everything...especially with a busy weekend ahead....

gold coast martin 15:39 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
SS....bECAUSE ITS FRIDAY and if you are in front i suggest you take profit....imo i still think 10378 is on but its friday.....just been disciplined out of habit....g/t

Tulsa 15:38 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Good calls friends!!!!!!!!!! Time to close all positions??

Tallinn viies 15:38 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
have a nice w/e
I must go, cu

was pleasure to do business with you:)
target 1,2870 on monday!!! stop and reverse trailed to 1,3089
good luck

San Diego bobl 15:36 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Talk about a HOT HAND...
gotta hand it to ya...GCM...kudos my friend

Los Angeles ss 15:34 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Martin, you think dollar-yen will retrace to your low figure now? thanks for your input.

jkt-aye 15:33 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
KUDOS to Qindex, Martin, Viies and Medallion (much more here).

london steamer 15:30 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin
That was a nice 53 pips on the usd/jpy
Many Thanks I only wish I knew how you do it.

HK Kevin 15:27 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:48 GMT, you are excellent. exactly 1.2988

Philadelphia Caba 15:25 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Bought small eurusd @ 1.2990

Makassar Alimin 15:24 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
usd/cad might test 1.25 before NY close, it would be slow and stable rise from now on
re next week, too many risky events, i am staying out flat at the moment

Jhb cd 15:23 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
martin, you must be living in opulent splendour there on the gold coast. Why? Because the way your trades are going you should be laughing all the way to the bank. Thanks for helping with another very very positive week... took 110 quick pts off the peaks on euro and gbp... nice end to quite a tough week.

happy weekend all!

gold coast martin 15:21 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 00:06 GMT January 28, 2005
GOOD morning/...Short post today..Been friday may induce some profit taking inthe gbp....so look for 18938 to with a bottom of 18768....Euro top out @13068 with still a bottom out figure of 12982...yen bottom out @10261 with a 10378 top.....
aussie @7775-80 is a top out figure with a 7690 still in waiting [email protected] good level for a short with a 7078 target in mind...
ALL ON ABOVE POST STILL APPLY....g/t///

Surabaya Medallion 15:20 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Onward to 104.3 :0

houston st 15:18 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   

QINDEX 14:17 -- top notch call, as usual...good weekend to you.

Dallas GEP 15:18 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Closed rest of usd/jpy longs, closed last of euro shorts

San Diego bobl 15:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Anyone who picked up the usd/cad yesterday on add at 1.2382 (believe i posted it here...did on gvi for sure) ; if you think short term, good resistance here to sell into. Not my deal, I am looking weeks out.

Dallas GEP 15:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Closed half of EURO shorts, rest at breakeven

SanFrancisco Analyst 15:05 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Euryen intra session interest is diluting, may take a short in a bit but unlikely I do so for at least a half hour depending.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:48 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
London Ron 14:45 GMT - EUR/USD : We have to wait and see how it goes at the barrier of 1.2988 // 1.3010.

London. 14:45 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
ING says. Adds that this report does nothing to derail the Fed's tightening trajectory
They point out that components of US GDP report were fairly encouraging, even though headline disappointed. Personal consumption was strong, as were inventories, which added 0.4 percentage points to the growh rate.

London Ron 14:45 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:17 GMT January 28, 2005
EUR/USD : It is still very weak in my system.

do you still think 12967 be challenged today ?

OK SZ 14:40 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 14:35 GMT January 28, 2005
Your welcome and hope your trade is a BIG success. GT, GL to all and good weekend

Boulder DAT 14:38 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
NYC 14:17 GMT January 28, 2005

I am well aware of the possible revisions to GDP. Here is a website that I "take notes" with regarding economic indicators and how they affect the currency market.

www.dismally.com

Istanbul OEE 14:35 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
What will happen to GBP/JPY when reminbi revalues? Thanks

San Diego bobl 14:35 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
OK SZ...
thank you for your kind comments.

As is well known in this forum, I have a long term core position in usd/cad and have built and added over time. There is clearly a seller here and there is a large put option position @ 1.2450. Seller here could be the option player. The is tons of heat from 65 to 1.2500. As mentioned yesterday, I will look to work the position around the much expected battle of 1.2500. However, I still have a 1.2900 target. The action at 25 will definitely elucidate the trade for weeks forward. This seller is determined though, and I suspect the entity is commodity related exporter.

Bahrain Within 10 pips 14:33 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
short euro/yen till close or 133.5

beirut 14:31 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
long Eur/USD here with stop 13015 target 13150

Atlanta-South 14:26 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl//Sorry for the mistake. Been trading for too many hours now & focus fading fast. Anyway, I enjoy your post & thks for your response. Time for me to get much neeed rest. GT & HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

San Digeo DC//Tks to you for the info. GT & HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

SanFrancisco Analyst 14:24 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
The US Economy Will Remain Strong, The Deficit Will Shrink Over Time, The Spotlight Is Really on the EU and the Middle East.

One school of thought over current and coming global geo-political and economic conditions that will affect exchange rates would certainly arrive at the idea of a fork in the road. A few of the issues to consider:

In the middle east geo-economic forces are mixed. For example, 15,000 terrorists are reported captured in Iraq, many being insurgents, baath loyalists, and/or members of al qaeda. Almost 18,000 people are running for election, and 80% of the population is expected to vote if able. Palestinians voted in the historic first-ever Gaza elections yesterday seeking statehood under the U.S.-backed "road map" to peace.

All of this is a giant step toward future stability in the middle east, and points to reduced likelyhood of another major terror strike on the US economy. Yet the issue of Iran's nuclear program lingers, which looks to imminently require a conclusion and is a potentially amatter of considerable instability for global economics..

The US 2yr Treasury auction has been weak, which causes some genuine concern over budget financing. The positives, however, include reduced inflation concern, implied continuation of supportive conditions for stock investors/US firms, and consumers that have been rabidly helping to support the economy. The savings rate of US consumers is concerning. Aside from the monday morning quarterbacks believing the Fed is handling its system of checks and balances incorrectly, the largely politically motivated "sky is falling" spin has been that as rates must increase now to avoid a savings catastrophe. That same spin game began in 2000 before the run of historic economic performance we have seen since on the back of low rate and tax conditions following 911 and the recession. Expect continued low rates, with very "measured" increases in accord with Greenspans testimony. The result will be avoidance of the spin scenario, with the increases, the low tax rates, an inevitably cooling housing market, and a few other conditions to force future consumer savings increases over time.

The weak US Dollar (USD) lingers as an offset to effects of trade and global economic weakness on the US, and while not attracting capital like it could, is supporting the economy in its current state. Future rate hikes and USD gains will take big chunks out of the deficit, but not until the USD has finished rebalancing to more competative and relative value on a time scale effect as well as the simple price/value effect. Managing the deficits is largely a matter of proper application of checks and balances by the FED, and to this point the real impact of the deficits on the US economy has been minimal. In fact if you consider the process a two stage cycle, the FED has done a masterful job of doing its part in stimulating robust economic growth on the back of the recession and the 911 catastrophe, and in accord with rebalancing global and domestic economic conditions will complete part two of the cycle over time, fanning the flames to cut the deficit. The result in time will be a strong economy and a shrinking deficit.

China's Economic statesman Mr. Fan indicating a coming measured chinese currency basket/float process is very good for the global economy, and China. The EU, however, will see further economic pressure as a result with the underlying value of the Euro, not the price, coming under great pressure over time with the Asian adustment. There is little wonder the EU architects have been against the chinse currency float, the weak USD, and many other issues.

In summary, we will see a great deal of global adjustment and further near term instability, especially in the EU. What we are witnessing in essence is the US rebalancing itself and the global economy through forced attrition. Barring another catastrophe such as that of 911, we should expect greater stability and forced economic reform/performance in the long run with a probability for historic levels of Asian trade/economic performance. Considerable rebalancing of 15 year old US economic imbalances, and positive EU economic reform out of necessity are transpiring. So, a touchy process but a good one.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:24 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : ... 1.2966 - 1.2988 // 1.3010 - 1.3031 - 1.3053 // 1.3075 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 14:22 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:00 GMT January 28, 2005
EUR/USD : Current expected trading ranges from my 22-day cycle (27-Jan)


... 1.2423 // 1.2541 - 1.2660 - 1.2778 - (1.2896) - 1.3014 - 1.3133 - 1.3251 // 1.3369 ...


The quantized levels can be expanded in the following manner :-


... 1.2896 - 1.2911 - // 1.2926 - 1.2941 - 1.2955 - 1.2970 - 1.2985 - (1.3000) - 1.3014 - 1.3029 - 1.3044 - 1.3059 - 1.3074 // 1.3086 - 1.3103 ...


Geneva 14:21 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Boudler DAT 14:14 GMT January 28, 2005

I think we dont understand each other, what I am saying is
that china revauation of the yaun shoud result a stronger dollar.

Thanks any way.

Dallas GEP 14:20 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Good close CABA. Thanks.

jkt-aye 14:20 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
sby Medallion ... thanks for sharing. GL

beirut 14:20 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
buy euro usd here 13050 with stop 13015 target 13150

Bahrain Within 10 pips 14:19 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
cable yen short at 195.25 till close

OK SZ 14:18 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Just stepping in to say hi to all. San Diego I have been reading your post and really enjoy your knowlege and professionalism. Along with Gold Coast Martin and OMIL who are great traders and to all newbies pay attention to these pros. I am trading futures but when I see good R/R I enter the forex for some long term trades. Good day to all

Hong Kong Qindex 14:17 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is still very weak in my system.

NYC 14:17 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Boulder. GDP is a preliminary number and subject to revisions after December trade and inventory data is known.

gold coast martin 14:17 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Sydney E.M 14:10 GMT January 28, 2005

LOL....sydney ......Same finding was made and submitted by govnt panel to the federal govnt,..,,,,,we will hear more about this scenario in the next month or so..also there is a piece about australia selling her resources cheap due to the high aussie dollar.....thanks for the post.....g/t

San Diego bobl 14:17 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Actually, that was San Diego DC post...
however, have read the book, as well as Douglas's first book, "The Disciplined Trader"...
I have spent a great deal of time on the mental aspects of trading, and feel it is by far the most important component of trading...

btw...eur/usd flatted; no follow-through; felt it needed to make it or that it would slide back; go Marty!

Boudler DAT 14:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Geneva 14:06 GMT January 28, 2005

Why?
The effects of a weaker number on GDP for the United States would translate in to a weaker dollar. As an investor, you want a higher return. If you are not recieving that higher return, then you would consider investing somewhere else.

You may get your wish, though. No one seems to be jumping in too quickly to sell dollars so far. There are too many future events coming in next week that will affect the dollar. Also, it's a Friday. This move is a bit muted. It might reverse course here if traders don't get the results they are looking for, and take profits quickly.

Bahrain Within 10 pips 14:13 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Longing Cable 1.8825 for till close
Short 1.1870 chf till close

Atlanta-South 14:11 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl//Sounds like a good book. Will be my next purchase. We'll never finish learning in this business.

Surabaya Medallion 14:10 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Actually don't want to rely on stop loss too much since this is still a ranging market.

Sydney E.M 14:10 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Deficit rings alarm bells
Tania Bawden Herald
29jan05

ALARM bells are starting to ring over the record trade deficit.
Economists are tipping a sharp drop in the Australian dollar of up to US10 this year -- and slightly higher interest rates -- as the effects of the current account set in.
Despite some of the best economic conditions in 30 years, independent forecaster Access Economics this week reached for the "panic button" over the depth and duration of the current account deficit.
"The current account deficit looks like running up its longest sustained spell in or near the red zone -- at 6.5 per cent of gross domestic product -- than it has managed in current history," its Business Outlook report said.
"Access Economics sees the current account deficit stuck in the scary range for an all-too-long time."
The agency expected the current account deficit -- the amount Australia exports compared with what it imports -- to blow out to more than $58 billion from $47.8 billion in 2003-04. "The last time our trade accounts were coloured so richly red, the then treasurer Keating muttered darkly of the risk of Australia becoming a banana republic," Access said.
Other economists are concerned Australia's trade deficit is exposing our economy to the high cost of servicing high levels of foreign debt and importing at a faster rate than we export.
Savings & Loans Credit Union economist Tony Fioretti expected the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates this year to help stem "the unsustainable level of consumer spending on imports". "And as 2006 unfolds, some further interest rate tightening is likely to be necessary to support the Australian dollar and to fund an unprecedented current account deficit," he said. Mr Fioretti said the "real hope" to stop the deficit widening further was for commodity exporters, particularly resources companies, to build capacity to start cashing in on global demand -- particularly from China. "But this will take several years to turn around . . . and vulnerability in commodity prices down the track is likely to add to our export revenue problems." Westpac senior economist Huw McKay said the floating Australian dollar would protect Australia from the kind of currency crush associated with Paul Keating's banana republic warning. "It's not really a problem as long as the rest of the world is willing to fund a large and growing current account deficit," Mr McKay said. "We actually see the deficit narrowing in the next two years as resource exports pick up and a weaker Australian to US dollar makes our exports more attractive and imports less attractive."

In the medium term, Mr McKay did not expect people to curb spending and save more because employment levels were so strong.
"However, we do expect the Aussie dollar to trade in the 60s (US cents) by the end of the year."
CommSec chief equities economist Craig James said: "The widening trade shortfall increases the risk of a sharp downward adjustment on the Aussie dollar at some point."

"Investors in currency-sensitive assets and companies need to be mindful of this risk."






Philadelphia Caba 14:09 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:05 GMT January 28, 2005
Closed eur/gbp longs @ 6921

Good call GEP. Closed early @ 0.6924. Thanks.

London Templar 14:08 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
bought small euro at 66 looking to move up and break 80 this afternoon.

I hope.....

Any thoughts.. Let me know!

Bahrain Within 10 pips 14:07 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
short cad and shorting more at 22 till close

Surabaya Medallion 14:07 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Well for long term should be 102.40. Target 104.30/50. Should be 104 in a few hours. The same with Eur/Yen target 136.3 max.

Geneva 14:06 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Boudler DAT 13:59 GMT January 28, 2005

Should have stroner dollar I belive?

San Diego bobl 14:05 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Gothenberg Antonio...
was looking at your post on gbp/usd...
have some comments on that if you are interested. If so, just indicate. Otherwise, gl/gt...

This market is a hoot...reminds me of a stand up production I saw last night for the third time...
"The male intellect...An oxymoron"

Current Forex market...A BIG TIME OXYMORON

jkt-aye 14:05 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
now, riding japan's bullet train on north journey.

Dallas GEP 14:05 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Closed eur/gbp longs @ 6921

Bahrain Within 10 pips 14:02 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
euro should drop at open

Atlanta-South 13:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
London Templar//Good catch. I was only able to get 14. I closed too soon fearing a quick reversal. I really should have been on the sideline, but decided to ride out this choppy mess during the night. Oh well, better +14 than -14 or more. Tks for the response & GT to you.

jkt-aye 13:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Medallion 13:53, agree with you. But not jump yet, need some confirmation on my radar at the end of this hour. SL ?

Surabaya Medallion 13:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Target 104.x since this is last Friday.

Boudler DAT 13:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Geneva 13:52 GMT January 28, 2005

This current move is being driven by a weaker than expected GDP figure relaes in the United States.

We are pretty sure that the Yuan will get revalued. We just don't know when. This will have a greater affect on the dollar once we know when.

gold coast martin 13:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
ADDED more yen [email protected]/P 10378

Bahrain Within 10 pips 13:58 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
102.8 long for yen shoting for 103.50 for now

London Templar 13:57 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Geneva 13:52 GMT January 28, 2005


Also

ref China comments : Zhu is not a central bank official, but senior exec. in the state-owned commercial bank .. so it's perhaps best to think of him as a very well informed non-official person

Dallas Mauricio 13:55 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
I urge everyone who is serious about making trading your career to read this book. 98% of this gig is psychological.

For those of you who have not read Mark Doulgas' "Trading in the Zone", I would like to quote the "five fundamental truths" (p. 121):

1. Anything can happen.
2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.

London Templar 13:55 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Geneva 13:52 GMT January 28, 2005

Reuters reports Bank of China's (not PBOC) Zhu saying reforms (bank, market) needed before CNY reval .. inflation not a concern

Meanoing before any revaluation there needs to be a lot of reform and that wont happen overnight. Any comments from China have a longer term effect, and cage rattling from China is more of a longer concern un;like the US current account defecit.

Hope that helps

San Diego bobl 13:54 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Offering some eur/usd long out @ 86 and 1.3106; I think if we don't achieve these numbers in next 30-60 minutes that the market will lag

For me, this was just an impulse trade, and I now have b/e stop and just a flyer for those numbers up

Helsinki iw 13:54 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD has next resistance at 1.3155/65 but it looks like it may have made at least a medium term bottom, so would not short it at the moment at least not against recent highs in the 1.3120 area. There will be stops above this weeks highs.
IMHO

Bahrain Within 10 pips 13:53 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
cad short 1.2410 till us close

Surabaya Medallion 13:53 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Well, just Long USD/Yen at 103.1 too for 600,000 USD.

Geneva 13:52 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Can some body explain why the dollar getting stronger when
china speaking about not revaluation of its yaun.

Its supose to be the oposite, realuation mean less deficit????

jkt-aye 13:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain ... are you in or plan to ? thanks

Global-View GVI 13:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
From GVI:

LondonJoe 13:43 GMT January 28, 2005 E
PBOC Zhu says does not think china will revalue ccy in next 6-18 months.. usdyen spikes up on that operators comment

LA Mel 13:42 GMT January 28, 2005
DAVOS-BANK OF CHINA'S ZHU SAYS DOES NOT THINK CHINA WILL REVALUE CURRENCY IN NEXT 6-18 MONTHS

London Templar 13:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
does anyone think this 80 level can hold?

San Diego DC 13:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
To all Newbies of this forum,

I like to say to you to not follow certain comments on this forum such as "one of those days where you can trade with closed eyes".

Recently an Astro trader (Markus Niksch) reminded us on another yahoo group, which I like to quote him here, for it might help......

"For those of you who have not read Mark Doulgas' "Trading in the Zone", I would like to quote the "five fundamental truths" (p. 121):

1. Anything can happen.
2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.

You don't need to know what is going to happen next ! ! !
That's what you have your technical tools for to manage your trade after you have executed your entry signal following your edge "

Bahrain Within 10 pips 13:49 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Longing chf on 1.1825 for 60 pips
Short Yen 103.50 for 102.80

London Templar 13:47 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Atlanta-South 13:45 GMT January 28, 2005

I caugfht 20 pips.

Nothing to shout about.

jkt-aye 13:47 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
JHC 13:41 ... Bank of China's Zhu says doesn't think China will revalue currency in next 6-18 months (Reuters).

Atlanta-South 13:45 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Did anyone catch that spike in E/$? Gold Coast Martin, thks for you always helpful adv.

gold coast martin 13:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
ADDING gbp [email protected] kiwi [email protected]

CAIRO AG 13:42 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Closed my cable longs from 1.8825 at 1.8870...
Will re-enter long/short on breaks ONLY!!!

SanFrancisco Analyst 13:41 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
The data suggests concerns of inflation are still not reality, and rates should not be expected to increase rapidly I think.

London JHC 13:41 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Any news out - usd/jpy just spiked up???

gold coast martin 13:41 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Short [email protected] STOP 13112...T/P 12982....

Bahrain Within 10 pips 13:40 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
short euro here 1.3010 area

milan mario 13:39 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
buy usd/jpy 103.10 stop los 102.50 tp 104.00

Tulsa 13:37 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
short eur with this data?? why? (I am short from before)

London 13:36 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
U.S. Q4 GDP grows 3.1%, slowest in 7 quarters
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Growth in the U.S. economy slowed in the fourth quarter to a 3.1 percent annualized rate, the weakest growth in seven quarters, the Commerce Department said Friday. For all of 2004, the economy grew 4.4 percent, the fastest real growth since 1999's 4.5 percent. Economists were expecting gross domestic product growth to clock in at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, consumer spending and business investment contributed the biggest shares to growth. Despite a weaker dollar, international trade subtracted from GDP. Inflation rates increased slightly, but remained within the Federal Reserve's target zone.

San Diego bobl 13:36 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Euro may get a second kick going...next 10 minutes or so will probably set tone/ took a feeler long here

Tallinn viies 13:34 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
sold euros at 1,3059,
stop and reverse at 1,3134
target 1,2920/30

Pecs Andras 13:31 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
GDP 3.1%

GENEVA FHR 13:30 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
GDP 3.1

Philadelphia Caba 13:30 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
3.1

Tallinn viies 13:29 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
one of those days you can trade with closed eyes imho

Bah Bahrain1 13:29 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hi Frnds,
28Jan 13:30 USD Employ Cost Idx %q/q Q4
28Jan 13:30 USD GDP Q-4 3.4 4.0
28Jan 13:30 USD Chan Wgt Pr Q-4 2.0 1.4

Good luck to u all

London Templar 13:28 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
GDP....

Err bit of a problem there lol ;)

London Templar 13:27 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
London RHood 13:25 GMT January 28, 2005
Think u should check your calender mate...

LOL

Yeah err sorry about tht!!

Ldn 13:26 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Initial claims were out yesterday

London RHood 13:25 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Think u should check your calender mate...

London Templar 13:23 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
looking to offer in size if we get better then expected durable goods and initial claims in the aud eur and gbp against the usd

any thoughts?

CAIRO AG 13:11 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Longed cable at 1.8825, stop 1.8787
TP: Its Friday, and that explains it all !!

Haifa ac 12:25 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Energy should sink here.

Bahrain Within 10 pips 12:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
smal short swiise for 1.1820 for now
I am not sure of that either

Bahrain Within 10 pips 12:08 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Seems Like a long point here for cable...not sure
I think I will long small around 1.8820 during next 1 hour
PT Minim at 1.8870...
I am not sure of this Traders...so

Gothenburg Antonio 12:04 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
London Templar Indeed :) though I find it disturbing having to learn the hard way :P

London Templar 12:00 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Gothenburg Antonio 11:44 GMT January 28, 2005

Dont worry it doesnt matter how experienced you become the market always has a new lesson for you to learn...

Experience is your best friend!

Gothenburg Antonio 11:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
The following assumptions are begginners assumptions, don't read much into them.
Posting here to recieve opinions and try to find myself a possible trading strategy to follow in the future (if fails I will probably have to change set of mind)
If you disagree, please tell me since I am eager to learn from others.

GBP/USD
Long Term (Monthly)
Down: 1.7600

Medium Term (Daily)
Down 1.8630, 1.8400
If determined low at 1.8520 (if no more lows lower than this), trend up!
If determined high 18928 (if no more highs higher above this), trend down!

Short Term (4 Hour)
Low points 1.8530 -> 1.8630... -> possible next low (drop to) 1.8720
Highs 1.8823 -> 1.8836 -> 1.8930... -> Acceleration!

Short Term (1 Hour)
Lows 1.8530 -> 1.8620 -> 1.8630 decceleration
Highs Acceleration
Assumption, to go down, test possible ~1.8720 figures, to possibly rally upwards after hitting the low 1.8720.
If 1.8720 fails to bring upward trend, overall trend continue downwards.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:22 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
cable 1.8960 to 1.8750 for todays range
Yen 103.7 and 102.1

Rio CV 11:01 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Auckland

Could you please post here the Reuters forecasts when available?

MANY TIA!!!

Haifa ac 10:54 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Auckland 09:26 GMT //Hope you enjoyed your dinner (am going to launch now here). You quoted data for Eurodollars. This is 90 day INTEREST RATES INSTRUMENT. What does it have to do with Euros???or Currencies?!

Dallas GEP 10:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Shorted some euro at market

Philadelphia Caba 10:38 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Gothenburg Antonio 09:41 GMT January 28, 2005

Would wait after todays US data.

Philadelphia Caba 10:37 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Good morning everyone!
GBP/USD: There is another large 1.8850 plain-vanilla option rolling off at today"s 15:00GMT NY cut.





ldn 10:22 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
BAGHDAD (AP)--A top Iraqi security official said Friday the government has arrested two close associates of terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi just days before historic elections that Zarqawi's group has pledged to disrupt.

Auckland 10:19 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac 08:05 GMT …look this page- it will give you answer
http://global-view.com/beta/fxfutures.html
GL/GT

Gen dk 10:12 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sing Suri 09:42 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Gothenburg Antonio

Martin's post in this regard is valid. And you're in the right direction - GT

Gothenburg Antonio 09:41 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
I need someone elses opinion on the GBP/USD pair

I'm thinking about opening a sell position at the current level, thinking it will fall down over the coming days to 1.8700 levels, maybe I should wait until monday for this.

But any thoughts on the pairs development?

Sydney ACC 09:30 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
New York Times 28 Jan
Adjusting for inflation and population growth, OPEC's revenue per capita dropped to $600 in 2004, from a high of $1,800 in 1980. For Saudi Arabia, where the population has more than doubled in the last 25 years, per capita revenue has dropped from $22,000 in 1980 to $4,000 last year. "They have higher revenue needs because they have higher spending, especially on security or social services," said Lowell Feld, the senior world oil market analyst with the Energy Information Administration, who compiled the figures.

Auckland 09:26 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac 08:05 GMT… Sorry for my late reply, I just had dinner…it might take time to explain “conection” between currency futures, options, forwards spot etc… If you don’t mind ask Jay for my email or let me ask him for yours and I’d be able to explain all I’ve got in my brain in regards to economy. Another option is to google it- you might find better answer (it will take you time). Today will be better to concentrate on Rolling Stones concert called “GDP”at 13.30 GMT.
NY Newbie 08:14 GMT… Depend what risk you are whiling to take - risk < > reward
Regards to GDP…usually around midday Reuters will publish very accurate data forecast (before official publishing) somebody use it somebody not
Be careful and good trade

Gen dk 09:26 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LDN LDN 09:20 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
UK Daniel cheers for that

Gothenburg Antonio 09:16 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 06:15 GMT January 28, 2005
The USD/JPY keeps giving me mixed signals, seems like the upward bias due to the triangle has stronger support than I imagined, the upcoming moves for this pair will depend on the supports around 102.5-102.7, if it is fiding a new low around these levels there might accur another jump to the 104 levels.

If it fails, as I figured it should have (but didn't over night) it indicates it failed to have a significant recovery from the 104.30>102.7 fall recently.

Another aspect would be that the situation that the pair is in right now is the same that it was in the 23-26 of January but at a higher low.

Chances of upward move, but I fear risk of drop.

Roumeli anka 09:11 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Euxaristw Martin, I dont trade this pair either but i use it as an analytic tool since is less noisy than other pairs. Anyway I would like to see spot gold above above 430 to be sure about the cit.

perrie como 09:10 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Well the market seems me moving behind a technical orders nowadays as per Davos showing. It will be then interesting the London G7s meeting on feb 4th 5th, which is seemingly roumored on deficits, but we know this is a global problem more than Us centric only.

But for the more immediate instance is noone of the above as all leaders waiting preocupied the Iraqi election outcome.

Difficult to define democracy in such a place without strong Politics and Military established, for this western world has failed into now. However hopes persists.

Shia majority will make It danagerous for risk of a new theocracy, linking to Iran.

Sunni on the other side have lot to risk, given their past records, with be It Shia majority or relative with Kurds.


Kissinger just said that:"There is no magic formula for a quick non-catastrophic exit. But there is now an opportunity for an outcome that will mark a major step forward in the war against terrorism, in the transformation of the Middle East, and toward a more peaceful and democratic world order."

But maybe there could be an sort of Yugoslavia option so to cut Iraq in two or three parts.

In between Davos will already close, without showing further on the most hot theme now in the world around.

have a relaxful w/e


O

UK Daniel 09:08 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
LDN LDN

$1.2900/$1.3150 dnt option in. EURO-DOLLAR: Talk of a $1.2900/$1.3150 dnt option structure in play, said to expire next week ahead of the G7 weekend.

malta rustler 09:04 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
good morning : a question to the Fundamentally minded if i may...

should the present specultative buying of the Yuan, effectively be dollar positive because of the peg? any ideas please?

gold coast martin 09:00 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Roumeli anka 08:48 GMT January 28, 2005
I dont trade the CHF normally unless extreme levels are seen(111-112) to which the SNB responds with a " market price check", but you do have very solid charts and your statement about the new trend has got a lot of merit......g/t

LDN LDN 08:52 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Talk of Large 1.2900-1.3150 DNT In Play
Does anyone know when this expires

Syd 08:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
US 4Q GDP Forecast +3.6%; Price Index +2%

Roumeli anka 08:48 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Good morning traders... if my count is correct, usdchf is in a new downtrend impulse wave. I'm wrong if price moves above 1.1925

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf281.gif

ldn 08:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Nearly 26,000 Iraqis Expected To Vote At 5 US Sites

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:38 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
I hope today is good day for us here ! :-)

Atlanta-South 08:35 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin//I also think that level to be too weak to hold. About now seems like a GOOD time to get to the sidelines. Thks for you constant & helpful post. A GOOD WEEKEND TO YOU.

gold coast martin 08:29 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
,,that is as far as i can see for now....lol.....13070-131 as i said is getting to be a distant memory as friday progresses....g/t

gold coast martin 08:27 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   



Atlanta-South 08:20 GMT January 28, 2005
Good question..the 12982 that i have ben talking about all week is a level of support that has buy orders waiting..however,the quantity and size of those buy orders may not be enough to provide a bounce and instead be absorbed and then a trip to the 12914(another ruro buying order level) will be imminent....these levels have been in play all week...fridays squaring up and the increasing amount of spec sell orders may see the 12982 level breached....g/t

Atlanta-South 08:20 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin// Does 1.2982 offer firm support & will 1.3075-1.3100 be expected next. Thks for response.

London JMB Futures 08:19 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Auckland 07:59 GMT
Interesting stats. thanks auckland.
I bet the exchange will be wanting to go to 1/8 tick if increases like that keep on!!!

auckland sc 08:17 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
thankyou much apreciated

gold coast martin 08:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
fwiw.....aud has resistance levels building @7769,7763....indicates the frequency of seeing 7770-75 as per previous sessions is ending....means that those with shorts from the 7770-80 will be very well rewarded..
Euro has resistancelevels [email protected],13067,13061.....indicates more downward pressure on the 130 level but we are within 4 hours of a breach to 12982....

Yen has resistance levels [email protected],10287,10268....likelihood of seeing 10378 is increasing....

Note above levels are actual sell orders (for euro and aud) AND buy orders for yen from which the currencies will get bounce from....these levels can be used as stops when selling aud and euro and buy yen...
As i repeated in my early post since today is friday there will be a lot of profit taking on the gbp which will mean a 18767 level from current 18869 levels.....
TRADE SAFE.....

NY Newbie 08:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
I am new to FX and was wondering if it is better to trade spot with a dealer or use CME Globex contracts or if there is something better? Thanks for the help. I'm just trying to figure this out and I don't mind admitting that I'm green behind the ears!!

Cape Town 08:11 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
And 134.00 eur/jpy printed again after a brief absence.

auckland sc 08:08 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
do you thnk we will see aud drop below 0.7700 before close ?

Haifa ac 08:05 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Auckland 07:59 GMT // What is the connection of Eurodollar to forex?!

Atlanta-South 08:03 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Qindex//Thanks for the reply. Do u see 1.3075-1.31 in near term?

FRA Alpha Tango 08:00 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
oK guys, I've just improved my system so...ACHTUNG!
buy sterling at .65
sell usd/chf at .75
buy euro at .15

Auckland 07:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Good Morning traders,
Hopefully today We will move out of dead trading range (EUR/USD 1.2950-1.3150) and have clearer picture about market itself .
Here is some data from CME (showing green bucks overseas)

CME Eurodollar futures
Volume 2004 Volume 2003 % Increase
Record 297 mill 209 mill + 43 %

CME Eurodollar options
Volume 2004 Volume 2003 % Increase Record 131 mill 101 mill + 30 %

Total CME Eurodollar
futures and options
(open outcry and electronic)
Volume 2004 Volume 2003 % Increase
Record 428 million 310 million + 38 %


Good Luck and Good Trade to all…

Rivonia PipPirate 07:58 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
e/g
..6866..6879..6893..=s...r=6921..6935..6940..

Hong Kong Qindex 07:58 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Atlanta-South 07:53 GMT - May be in the London session.

Atlanta-South 07:53 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Quindex// will challenge be in the short term? Thanks.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:48 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 07:47 GMT January 28, 2005
EUR/USD : The market will challenge the barrier at 1.2993 - 1.2998.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 07:29 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   

EUR
1.3022
BUY

1.2986
Stop

TARGET AS YOU WISH...MAY NOT WORK



auckland sc 07:15 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
never mind sorry

auckland sc 07:11 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
do you think the eur will fall in the next hour >

London aa 07:00 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
London. 06:45 GMT January 28, 2005
Expatriate Iraqi Citizens Begin Voting In Turkey
/
/
I also saw voting taking place a week ago in UK and US.

hong kong nt 06:49 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD -- assume a neutral ST bias, range 1.292-1.329, exit points at 1.290, 1.327, risk/reward 1:3, ideal entry level will be 1.299 OR

assume a mild upside ST bias, exit points at 1.293, 1.327, ideal entry level will be 1.3015 OR

assume a mild upside ST bias, exit points at 1.293, 1.319, ideal entry level will be 1.2995...

London. 06:45 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Expatriate Iraqi Citizens Begin Voting In Turkey

Hong Kong Qindex 06:40 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:33 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 06:15 GMT - See details in my page. Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Los Angeles ss 06:15 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Q-- what do you see for usd/yen short term from these levels?

Hong Kong Qindex 06:09 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : My daily cycle charts suggested at the market will consolidate between 1.0318 - 1.3042 for the time being. It is likely that the market will tackle 1.2969 later today.

Sing Suri 06:03 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Syd - thanks. yes "perhaps".

Syd 06:01 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Sing Suri 05 perhaps they see it as at the correct level

Hong Kong Qindex 06:00 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:00 GMT January 28, 2005
EUR/USD : Current expected trading ranges from my 22-day cycle (27-Jan)


... 1.2423 // 1.2541 - 1.2660 - 1.2778 - (1.2896) - 1.3014 - 1.3133 - 1.3251 // 1.3369 ...


The quantized levels can be expanded in the following manner :-


... 1.2896 - 1.2911 - // 1.2926 - 1.2941 - 1.2955 - 1.2970 - 1.2985 - (1.3000) - 1.3014 - 1.3029 - 1.3044 - 1.3059 - 1.3074 // 1.3086 - 1.3103 ...


London. 06:00 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
China's central bank has noted the speculative trading in the yuan ahead of the Group of Seven meeting, a People's Bank of China spokesman said Friday, adding that there has been no change in the yuan exchange rate policy. The official in the PBOC news department told Dow Jones Newswires the speculative trading just reflects the market's expectations ahead of the G7 meeting. "Every time when there is a major (economic) event, the market always reacts like this," the spokesman said.Asked if the PBOC will again warn speculators about the risk of betting on a change in policy, the official said there was no such plan to issue a further advisory. Previously both the PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, a unit of the central bank that administers China's foreign exchange policy, have warned traders about speculating on a yuan revaluation The offshore yuan market has been swinging back and forth in the lead up to the G7 meeting in London, to which China's Finance Minister Jin Renqing and PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan have been invited. The initial invitation fed market speculation that China will be pressured into reforming its yuan exchange rate policy. But official comments from China in the lead up the meeting have played down any chance of a breakthrough, causing the market to swing the other way. Comments by a policy adviser to the central bank at the World Economic Forum that China should revalue now again turned market opinion, only to snap back after the PBOC stated that the remarks didn't reflect official currency policy. The denial also helped to boost the dollar in trade against Japan's yen as the markets perceived that China isn't immediately planning to abandon its de facto pegged exchange rate. China has adopted a prudent fiscal and monetary policy and repeatedly stresses the desire to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.
In effect, this means keeping the currency trading in a slim band around 8.277 yuan on the current account while slowly removing capital controls to allow more yuan to leak out of the economy.

: http://www.pbc.gov.cn

Sing Suri 05:59 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
The model (or whatever it is) conveniently leaves out USD/JPY..

Syd 05:54 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
MARKET TALK: USD Most Undervalued Vs NZD,EUR,AUD,GBP

USD most undervalued vs NZD (24.6%), EUR (19.7%), AUD (18.3%) and GBP (17.5%), based on its in-house model, writes Morgan Stanley. Model consists of relative productivity, relative terms of trade, relative fiscal positions, net foreign asset position of U.S.; based on model, median fair value (MFV) of EUR/USD (last 1.3025) is 1.0900, GBP/USD (last 1.8863) is 1.6000, AUD/USD (last 0.7753) is 0.6500 and NZD/USD (last 0.7144) is 0.5700.
dJ

Syd 05:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
The PBOC was quick Friday to stress that Yu's comments were his own personal view and that they didn't reflect the opinion of the central bank.

The comments and quick denial come at a sensitive time for the markets, ahead of a Group of Seven meeting in London Feb. 4-5 to which China has been invited.With PBOC officials publicly stating confidence in its sterilization strategy and the slide in the dollar helping to boost China's trade performance, there is a strong view in Beijing that there is no need to rush to revaluation.

Such a stance is expected to be challenged at next week's G7 finance ministers' meeting.

Bahrain Within 10 pips 05:50 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
aus/cad Looking good short
GM all

Los Angeles ss 05:21 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
FXNEW -- If you have Yahoo Messenger, you can contact me right away as SLS18. Thanks.

Los Angeles ss 05:10 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
la fxnew -- jay is sending you my email address. Have something you might really be interested in!

LA fxnew 04:50 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Good day ...

Any idea on cable pls? Thanks

Sonofmekel 04:32 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD
Target 1.3191
***Buy 1.3012, stop 1.3005
***Re-Buy 1.2960, stop 1.2950

GBP/USD
Target 1.9000
***Buy 1.8807, stop 1.8792
***Re-Buy 1.8746, stop 1.8732
***Re-Buy 1.8666, stop 1.8456

melbourne farmacia 03:55 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Sunshine Coast Flip 01:30 GMT - holiday mate ?

Los Angeles ss 02:46 GMT - yen/dollar not on my radar this week. GT

Syd 03:55 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
President Bush said in an interview on Thursday evening that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq if the new government that is elected on Sunday asked him to do so... Developing...

London. 03:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
LINK

London. 03:49 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Company News Dollar jumps quarter yen after China report FOREX-Yen jumps vs dollar on yuan comments

LINK

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 03:40 GMT January 28, 2005
You are welcomed. GT

Los Angeles ss 03:40 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
OMIL -- thanks much, appreciate your input.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:35 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 03:06 GMT January 28, 2005
My time cycle is longer than the sessions you have asked for but I will tell you the little I know about this pair. I have mixed readings on the intra-day indicators but key daily resistance and main resistance are both waiting in the 103.60-70 area with a bearish tone on the daily mid-term and weekly long-term chart. This pair is range trading for now with the rumored protected area (101.50) and top of the range (104.36) for now. Support is on the 102.80-90, 102.30-40 and 101.90-120 area for now. A sell on failed rallies under the main resistance would be my choice for now. No clear-cut at the mid-term view at this time by looking at the crosses (gbp/jpy and eur/jpy) since they are bullish on the daily charts IMHO. Peace and GT

Philadelphia Caba 03:23 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Thanks GEP.

Dallas GEP 03:16 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
6936 initially CABA

Sydney 03:15 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Eurodollar futures on SGX edge down amid extremely thin trading ahead of tonight's U.S. 4Q GDP, dealers say; local market cautious as better-than-expected figure could fuel expectations for accelerated pace in Fed rate hikes; December 2005 futures last 96.275 vs 96.300 on CME, March 2006 last 96.145 vs 96.175

Philadelphia Caba 03:12 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
GEP, may I ask you on t/p eur/gbp long, please? Thanks.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:10 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Tulsa 03:00 GMT January 28, 2005
FWIW aud/usd pair is in buy on dips mode above the main support area. Key support is around the 7700-10 area and main support is around the 7660-70 IMHO. GT

Los Angeles ss 03:06 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
omil/gep -- sorry, usd/yen for the rest of this session and into london. Thanks.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:04 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 02:46 GMT January 28, 2005
What pair are you asking about?

Dallas GEP 03:00 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
In eur/gbp LONG off an order earlier @ 6900

Tulsa 03:00 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hi!

Target/s in Aud short?

Thanks

Tokyo IM 02:52 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Hello all, long time no reading this board. GT/GL

seoul kkk 02:50 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB 01:26 GMT January 28, 2005 Yes, I understand what you mean. SK does in that manner too.
What I meant was foreign pressure on them will work less, let's say compared to on Japan or SK. They just don't care. It's like ECB hates political pressure or Bush doesn't care foreign complaints, whatever they get in return. (and personally I think fx can't fix world economic problem we have now. West germany suffered due to East, and SK will suffer if united with NK. World now just suffers due to China and all we can do is wait until they get richer. This G8 is meaningless)

gold coast martin 02:48 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
to buy aussie =to buy aussie commodities....

gold coast martin 02:47 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....Demand for commodities has and always be a main driver of aussie exports..however...with the currency rise australia gets less for its commodity exports hence the current accout deficit thus creating a domestic climate that is unattainable....it is great for the major commodity guzzling economies to buy aussie at lower prices due to the higher aussie value but unsustainable in the medium to long term...the bottom line is: a drop in the value of the aussie currency keeps everyone happy....a happy balance is what is sought with the aussie around the 65-68...To keep buying and holding aussie is simply not sustainable..just like the current 77+ levels....g/t

Los Angeles ss 02:46 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
OMIL and Farmacia -- thoughts on yen short term? Thanks.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:44 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 01:58 GMT January 28, 2005
Farmacia your shorts are well placed in the gbp/usd pair as the intra-day indicators are in O/B area and are looking for a dip at this point. I don't have a short signal on my system but it is shaping up. I have 8780-90 and key support (8730-40) to hold if this bullish move is for real. I will be watching the key support on this dip IMHO. GT

Syd 02:39 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
DJ China PBOC: Yu CNY Talk Doesn't Represent Official Policy




BEIJING (Dow Jones)--Remarks by a member of the monetary policy committee of China's central bank that the time is ripe for a yuan revaluation doesn't represent Beijing's view on the matter, a People's Bank of China official said Friday.

"(Yu Yongding's) remarks are only his personal view, and the opinions of an academic. It does not represent the central bank's policy," an official in the PBOC's information office told Dow Jones Newswires.

Yu told journalists Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland after a dinner discussion on the dollar's weakness that "now is the time to revalue...We need more flexibility. That means revaluation."



Los Angeles ss 02:23 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Now that the dust is settled from Yu's comments, anyone with thoughts on usd/yen from here for the rest of the asian session?

LA fxnew 02:15 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Yu's comment caused movement in yen?
This is BS

Syd 02:05 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Take PBOC Yu's remarks with big grain of salt, writes JP MOrgan FX strategist Rebecca Patterson; doubts "now" is time for CNY revaluation as believes China wouldn't want to make such a move so close to Feb. 4-5 G7 meeting as this could be viewed as succumbing to external prodding rather than being Chinese decision. Recommends using USD/JPY's sell-off very early this morning to buy USD/JP
DJ

Syd 01:58 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
China PBOC Official: Yu's Talk Is Personal View, Opinion

melbourne farmacia 01:58 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Miami OMIL - cheers mate.. agree on bullish nature, but feel we might swing between 1.8990 - 1.8660 for now.
That said, running small contra from 1.8915 until London open.GT

Syd 01:56 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
PBOC:Yu's CNY Talk Not Representative Of Official Policy

shanghai bc 01:55 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   

It is the perception that counts in the market..As long as the commodities keep rising,Aussie stox are the ones to buy and Aud is the currency to hold..Aussies are sitting on a continent sized mountain of commodities..China is unlikely to slow down much this year either with 8-9% GDP forecast for the year of rooster..China needs all the commodities from Australia just to keep going..Buy till all the roosters come home to roost..

Singapore FH 01:51 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
market is already expecting in the 3.5-4%, with the massive external deficit it seems unlikely to get a print higher than that so i feel we're already discounted for this event

Hong Kong Qindex 01:50 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Syd 01:48 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD stuck range ahead of U.S. GDP data but players may be preparing to sell if data prints well . The bias is against the euro, If it breaks through 1.2933 then it could fall rapidly, perhaps to 1.27.Until data players likely to keep positions neutral; expected range in Asia -1.2950-1.3100.
Akifumi Uchida, Sumitomo Trust trader

Sonofmekel 01:46 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD
/ Target 1.3191
***Buy 1.3012, stop 1.3005
***Re-Buy 1.2960, stop 1.2950

GBP/USD
/ Target 1.9000
***Buy 1.8807, stop 1.8792
***Re-Buy 1.8746, stop 1.8732
***Re-Buy 1.8666, stop 1.8456

Hong Kong Qindex 01:35 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Today is Friday and we have to keep an eye on the weekly cycle analysis.

Sunshine Coast Flip 01:30 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Thankfully EM apart from the Current Account deficit, the Australian Government run a budget surplus. A large part of the C/A deficit is the enourmous inward investment thanks to the commodity boom.
ASX still making the ubiquitous new all time high week after week while the dotcom bubble surges and depresses like a bi-polar episode-LOL

Halifax CB 01:26 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
seoul kkk 23:35 GMT January 27, 2005 I don't doubt what you said at all. OTOH I think that they realize that once they come to a decision to release the yuan, they will want to do it in a way that won't cause havoc in the markets. The easiest way is simply to let information "leak" with increasing frequency up to the public announcement. I don't know about the SK gov't, but gov'ts over here do it all the time...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:14 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Farmacia good call on the squeeze play on the gbp/usd pair but this pair has the daily indicators bullish now and headed to test the 8970-80 area next with top of the wedge at 9040-50 now. There is plenty of room for the move too IMHO. Peace and GT

Hong Kong Qindex 01:05 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:04 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Sydney EM 00:50 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Australia's large current account deficit is likely to remain at around $A50 billion ($US38.94 billion), or six per cent of GDP, through to March 2005, RBC Capital Markets economist Greg Gibbs said."At such a level, that continues to expose Australia to the shifting whims of international investor sentiment and should there be any rise in global risk aversion, the Australian dollar would likely suffer."The US Federal Reserve is likely to continue its widely anticipated tightening cycle, having raised rates by 25 basis points six times to its current level of 2.25 per cent.Macquarie Research senior economist Brian Redican said there is likely to be less foreign investor demand for the Australian dollar as the differential narrows.



Gold Coast Martin is correct when he says aussie is a risky hold

auckland sc 00:37 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
thanks

Sing Suri 00:34 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Expecting gold to consolidate for a few more days between 428 and 420 with break of the lower level more probable. GT

Los Angeles ss 00:30 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Thanks, Martin.

Syd 00:28 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
NZD: RBNZ"s Bollard Expects An Economic Slowdown This Year

gold coast martin 00:27 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 00:21 GMT January 28, 2005

No...the 10261 is the figure that you can use as a stop or a bottom from which to trade long...any figure under 103 is food level for a long....g/t

auckland sc 00:21 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
any predictions on gold ?

Los Angeles ss 00:21 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
Martin, do you see the yen bottom at.61 before the move up to 103.78?

gold coast martin 00:06 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
GOOD morning/...Short post today..Been friday may induce some profit taking inthe gbp....so look for 18938 to with a bottom of 18768....Euro top out @13068 with still a bottom out figure of 12982...yen bottom out @10261 with a 10378 top.....
aussie @7775-80 is a top out figure with a 7690 still in waiting [email protected] good level for a short with a 7078 target in mind...

A brief note on the aussie:the grumblings have already started about the growing current account trade gap...the first traditionally to mention it when aussie starts to be close to 78 is the treasurer Costello..followed by exporters .....net result always ends in a drop....good one to short....g/t

Lima 00:04 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
round number on gbp, good for a short??

Auckland peat 00:04 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
sorry that the formatting was a bit f*&^d up.
Is there any problem with the occasiional post like that?

Auckland peat 00:02 GMT January 28, 2005 Reply   
some commentary from an ABN Amro source
Economic comment
Reasons to be fearful, parts 1 - 3
Robert Lind
In my conversations with investors around Europe over the
past month, I have been struck by a paradox. Virtually
everyone believes there is an overwhelming consensus that
the dollar will fall significantly further in 2005. As a result, most
investors say they expect the dollar to strengthen. The clear
buy-side consensus is that the dollar has now fallen far
enough. Interestingly, that also seems to be the consensus
among sell-side FX strategists. In the latest Reuters poll of 58
of them, the median forecast sees the dollar trading at 1.33
against the euro and 99 against the yen in 12 months' time.
Contrary to the actual consensus, we think the dollar has much further to fall. Last July, we argued the US current-account deficit had reached the limits of sustainability (see 'Our problem', Economics Focus, 21 July 2004). Inevitably, this would put downward pressure on the dollar. We have seen a further fall in the dollar since then, but we do not believe this is anywhere near enough to lead to a meaningful improvement the US's deficit. On page 2, we explain why we think the dollar has further to fall, irrespective of the economic outlook for the US over the next year or two. The only question is the likely path of the adjustment process. We think there are three potential scenarios.
1. In our first scenario, the dollar could rally further in the short term as investors become more optimistic about US growth.This seems to explain the New Year rally. As markets
reassessed the outlook for Fed policy, they concluded that
interest-rate differentials will give more support to the dollar.
Unfortunately, such a dollar rally is unsustainable. Stronger US
growth and higher US interest rates will force the currentaccount deficit even wider, threatening a more disruptive decline in the dollar later in 2005 and 2006.
2. In our second scenario (we might call it the Minack
scenario), the US economy falters in the short term as
consumers retrench in the face of the modest tightening of
policy we have already seen. In this case, US rates won't rise
further and - in the Minackian world - might even fall again.
Aggregate demand would weaken and deflation could
threaten. While the trade deficit might begin to narrow, the
dollar would collapse, most probably with an overshoot, as this
would be the only mechanism for stimulating aggregate
demand and holding the inflation rate up.
3. Our final scenario is our current central case. In this case,
the dollar continues to grind lower, not only against the euro
but also against the yen and - later this year - against the other major Asian currencies, including the renminbi. But at best, this only stabilizes the US deficit over the next year or two. It is an equilibrium of sorts, but it is unstable. The ultimate correction is postponed.

 




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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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