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Forex Forum Archive for 08/1/2005

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Lahore FM 23:53 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Selling cable 1.7680,stop1.7735 for 1.7500.

Ldn 23:29 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD TECHS: Shorts In Play For A 0.7530 Break

IFR NEWSWIRE

London. 23:19 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
San Francisco Fed economist Diego Valderrama writing in bank's monthly Economic Letter, says it's in interests of U.S., Asia nations with big USD-denominated holdings to avoid sharp changes; "a significant move away from dollar-denominated reserves would entail significant costs to foreign economies" - in other words, hurting one's best customer's ability to buy comes at stiff cost.

Philadelphia Caba 23:10 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
AUD Trade Balance (JUN) and Reatil Sales (JUN) due at 21:30 EST.

nj jf 22:55 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
ewave=cab driver

HK [email protected] 22:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The only major currency which displays hidden intrinsic value, is the yen.

All fundamentals for the time being are pointing to it. So any move from 112.80 and above will be met by accumulation, and you must ignore the obvious to disregard it.
The only one horrified about yen reval. are the Japs. Ellioticians are still toying with ~115 level. and the major fundamental excuse now for such target is politically.

It makes more sense indeed to add Yen(for medium term which on Tech. may go back to ~107), a currency supported by better economical Funda., rather than Euro supported by Tech. possible rebound and hope for portfolio purchasing by China.
And when it(Yen) will move this will happen at a fast pace.

Lahore FM 22:43 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Syd,surely man,machines can't make one laugh out loud.

Syd 22:40 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:38 there is (smile)

Lahore FM 22:38 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Pozarevac Kocev 22:29 GMT August 1, 2005
Lolz,yes i sleep less.Igor does sleep that i know or at least he says that he is going to sleep or rest and London and SYD act more like 24 hour news feeds.Only they themselves can confirm if there is a person or a machine behind the cyber identity.

USA Biscuit Boy 22:36 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Ok FM as long as you are happy to 1.25 I can sleep well....if we overshoot to 1.2750 I will feel guilty tho ;)

Pecs Andras 22:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Pozarevac Kocev 22:29 GMT August 1, 2005
Good night mate
We played a great water polo game the other day, didn't we?
Congrats to you for your great team.

Pozarevac Kocev 22:29 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
To IGOR, LONDON, LAHOR

Are you guys every sleep....Good night and thanks for so much advise ...

Regards from Yugoslavia....

Gen dk 22:28 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Pecs Andras 22:28 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
EUR bull guys
What do you see on the longer term charts that you see bullish?
TIA

Lahore FM 22:22 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Biscuit boy,my dear it is not GC martin's mantra that has swayed me one bit but my impartial view of the charts though i know you would rather have my original instinct come true and get printed too,lol.I am still looking at it impartially,nothing beyond the technical point of view.There is a wonderful base for the houlies to develope further but those same bases do falter when the weeklies and monthlies are as bearish as they stand now.I would continue trading with an unbiased view and won't mind trading my way up to 1.25 with you or 1.18 and lower with Martin.Thanks for your wonderful reply really.I will remain your fan forever i think.

USA Biscuit Boy 22:15 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Tsk tsk FM you were such a nice antidote to GC Martin's eternal dollar bull mantra....I am hoping your first instincts of last week were right......1.25 for eur/usd my target....I prefer to see dollar index back above its 50 day ma and series of lower lo's and higher hi's for eur/usd broken before I have a change of heart (any sign of eur/jpy weakness would also be a big clue yes????)....gl and gt.

Tallinn viies 22:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
range top at 1,2250/55 held again. now waiting for the move down to 1,2115/20. stop should stay over previous day top.

Lahore FM 22:08 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 21:51 GMT August 1, 2005
The change in view has come from the continuously bearish weeklies which did not get any help from close on Friday 29th July.The monthlies are thoroughly bearish and there is nothing rock solid so far in the dailies either.The multi hourlies still have room on the upside and am planning to use the area from 1.2160 to 1.2260 to short Euro over and over.

It is in the face of lacklustre performance that i have switched from bullish on Euro to tentatively positive on the Dollar.Will be getting out of my Euro Aussie and NZD shorts in a while.Keeping Long USD/CAD though till Friday or stop.Will short most pairs once we see Euro itrading higher into 1.22xx .gtgl.happy trades to you.

London. 22:02 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Hedge fund inflows drop sharply in 2Q
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Asset flows into hedge funds dropped 60 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter, reflecting investors' reaction to slumping hedge fund returns in the first part of the second quarter, according to new data.

Hedge funds took in $10.9 billion in new assets in the second quarter, down from $27.3 billion in the first quarter but up from $7.5 billion in the second quarter of 2004, according to Chicago-based research and index firm Hedge Fund Research. The firm estimates that hedge funds now manage a total of about $1 trillion.



Spb Igor 21:59 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:53 GMT August 1, 2005

... souns like a true prophet. A little bed time would be good. Hope to see us tomorrow 100 pips taller.

Lahore FM 21:53 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Igor, i know you believe in me,and of course with the correct stop loss.mine is 1.2070.looks reasonable on the chart too.Who wants to lose sleep over losing trades?gtgl.

USA Biscuit Boy 21:51 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Hi FM......you flip flopped on your dollar outlook short term.....that won't do at all lol....still looking for 1.25 next few weeks here mate :)

Spb Igor 21:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:41 GMT August 1, 2005
Igor i see a solid rally of 100 points in USD/CAD within 24 hours.We might have seen low for quite a few days or weeks to come.

I believe in you my friend with the s/l of course :-). I have two orders in case hits the ceiling.

San Juan Lil 21:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Hi Lahore, Igor
Hope this buy $CAD fever is contagious! I just got some and hope to see correction due to the Saudi news earlier on.
I also reversed the $yen and am happy to see it finally get going. Feels nice to be on the right side of the trade. Hope you all get a good rest. GTS

London. 21:42 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Europe's Commitment Anxiety


Jeremy Rifkin argues that the French left, in part, rejected the European constitution not because they oppose the European Union but because they reject the prospect of an American style unfettered capitalism, which they worried would go hand in hand with the new constitution

Lahore FM 21:41 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Igor i see a solid rally of 100 points in USD/CAD within 24 hours.We might have seen low for quite a few days or weeks to come.

Spb Igor 21:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Vienna GD 21:25 GMT August 1, 2005

They are trying to privatize the post office and apperently people are start dying. The house is split on this matter. They found on of the member of the lower house hanged over this thing: http://news.ft.com/censored/s/932fb756-026f-11da-84e5-00000e2511c8.html

Syd 21:27 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Economists predict no interest rate change
Official interest rates are likely to remain unchanged after today's Reserve Bank Board meeting.

Most economists expect the official cash rate to be left at 5.5 per cent for the fifth month in a row.

The last rate increase was by a quarter of one percentage point in March to curb inflation.

That increase took home lending rates to their highest level in four years.

Since then the Reserve Bank has become more relaxed about the inflation outlook partly because slower growth in domestic spending has reduced pressure on wages.

Any change to the official cash rate will be announced at 9.30am AEST on Wednesday morning.

Vienna GD 21:25 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Please what is this "postal reform" : JPY remained under pressure against the USD and the crosses with the upcoming postal reform vote, expected on Friday

Syd 21:22 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Former National Australia Bank (NAB) foreign exchange trader, Luke Duffy, has given evidence at the trial of two of his former colleagues. Gianni Gray is facing 22 criminal charges of using his position to dishonestly obtain an advantage. Vince Ficarra is facing 19 counts. Gray and Ficarra are also each facing one count of obtaining a financial advantage via deception. In his court appearance on 1 August 2005, Duffy, the traders' former boss, denied suggestions by the defendants' lawyers that he fostered a culture of fear and intimidation among his team. Duffy claimed there was a close association between the three and with another former colleague, David Bullen. The committal hearing continues

Spb Igor 21:18 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:13 GMT August 1, 2005
Spb Igor 20:17 GMT August 1, 2005
thanx for joining in.it is a good r/r trade, let us be in it together.

Yea, they say house always wins ... we'll see about that. We might just have a perfect hand this time to bring it down. Mo' money!

Lahore FM 21:13 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Spb Igor 20:17 GMT August 1, 2005
thanx for joining in.it is a good r/r trade, let us be in it together.

Spb Igor 21:05 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Aussies are falling apart.

London. 20:32 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Moving to quell any uncertainty arising from the death of Saudi Arabian King Fahd, the kingdom's embassy to the U.S. on Monday reaffirmed the country's policy of meeting demand for crude oil and said all Cabinet members have been asked to retain their posts.

The steps were in line with analysts' expectations for stability in policy following the ascension of King Abdullah, particularly on the key question of oil, of which Saudi Arabia supplies more than 10% of the world's total.

"I would like to assure you Abdullah will continue King Fahd's legacy on providing the globe with a stable and secure source of energy," Rihab Massoud, charge d'Affaires at the Saudi Embassy in Washington, said at a news conference Monday. "Saudi Arabia is committed to supply all the world's needs to the best of our capabilities with a reasonable price."
Given that Saudi Arabia is the only oil producer in the world with any significant unused output capacity, the market's initial reaction to Fahd's death wasn't surprising. But analysts dismissed worries about Saudi oil stability, noting that a smooth succession has been put in place.

Ldn 20:19 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Asian Open: USD Makes Late Bounce on Strong ISM & Higher Yields

Spb Igor 20:17 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:55 GMT August 1, 2005

You know what, lets get wet! I'll go for it too. See you at 123+.

Syd 20:16 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Bank of NZ's Sue Trinh says strong commodity prices aided Kiwi, but notes pair facing resistance in 0.6850-0.6900 range, which "represents pretty strong overhead resistance." Tips pair to remain well bid above initial 0.6820 support, while gains above 0.6850 would be hard fought.

Spb Igor 20:10 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:55 GMT August 1, 2005

I would be careful with longing yankees/loonies agressively right now. Oil, good CAD data last week, and the recent move is still in place. You know what they say, "pee against the wind and you'll get wet". But hey, this is just a little me. Just be on top of it like always. Gl, gt indeed.

Lahore FM 19:55 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Yes Igor out of currency longs to dollar longs now,I would suggest longing USD?Cad,lot of potential seen right upto 1.2360 round NFP time.There are CAD datas coming out too.GTGL>

Spb Igor 19:51 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:48 GMT August 1, 2005

Good to see you are well and on the horse FM.

Lahore FM 19:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
GBP short from 1.7660 area was taken out at 1,7710.flat here.Euro short from 1.2229 and 1.2207 in play.Aussie short at 0.7609 and NZD short from 0.6858 also in for some pips now.let us see how aggression in USD/CAD long at 1.2107 with three position works,another meltdown or what!

Spb Igor 19:44 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Dippenhall SSS 19:37 GMT August 1, 2005

Not yet ... though it is a bed time around here.

Farnham SFH 19:43 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
going to bed lond doll/cad, short cable and short stg/yen..hope i sleep well...
nite nite and gl all..

Minneapolis DRS2 19:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Ldn 19:25 GMT August 1, 2005
"So far ... I respect the thought that we are in a summer time range and we are going to stick to it," he said.

I respect that thought also. A look at a daily EUR/USD chart shows the trading range. We're still in a USD uptrend, but the slope is very slight when compared to the March-June time period.

Lahore FM 19:37 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
3 Agressive long in USD/CAD at 1.2106 stop 1.2070 for 1.2370.Previous long at 1.2173 was taken out with stop at 1.2130.

Dippenhall SSS 19:37 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
good night igor..sleep tight..

Spb Igor 19:35 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:23 GMT August 1, 2005
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/kalzayani/EURCAD.htm
Small eur/cad Long for 50 pips or so

Perfect example. Do I go for it? May be - 10 pips had his reasons. I check my technicals ... well not so good, plus 10 pips spread on my platform, plus end of US session, a little hesitiation, and ... the answer is no. If it still goes down, I'm happy for my fellow trader and next time will be more agressive. End of story.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:32 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/kalzayani/AUDUSD.htm
Shorting this guy...gonna get hammared for a day +

Ldn 19:25 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Grant Wilson, senior foreign exchange trader at Mellon Bank, said the euro's push to $1.2252 seemed to be aimed at taking out a large barrier option at $1.2250. The Russian central bank announcement provided the trigger for the move.

Wilson said this choppy price movement was typical of summer trading, when markets tend to jump around more on technical factors - like attempts to trigger options - than in sustained response to data. He said he sees no evidence from the price movement that the euro is about to move sharply higher.

"So far ... I respect the thought that we are in a summer time range and we are going to stick to it," he said.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:23 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/kalzayani/EURCAD.htm
Small eur/cad Long for 50 pips or so

Sydney 19:19 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Some traders use Fibonacci levels as an indicator of support, where they expect buying, or resistance, where they expect selling. ``We need a close above a technical level to make sure we're really seeing a rally,'' said Sabrina Jacobs, a currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Singapore.
Investors should sell the currency at 76.30 cents should it rise that high in the next two days, Jacobs said.
Some strategists, such as Sue Trinh at Bank of New Zealand Ltd., said any gains in the currency will be tempered because the yield premium Australian government bonds offer over U.S. Treasuries is narrowing, reducing the appeal of holding the currency for some overseas investors.
Australian 10-year government bonds yield 94 basis points, or 0.94 percentage point, more than like-dated U.S. Treasuries, compared with 1.24 percentage points two months ago and a yearly average of 1.19 percentage points. The yield advantage has been a driver of the Australian dollar's 40 percent gains in the past three years.
The difference in yield, or spread, shrank last week to the least this year after a government report on July 27 showed the consumer price index rose 0.6 percent in the second quarter from 0.7 the previous three months. The report reinforced expectations the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged when policy makers meet tomorrow and for the rest of the year.
The yield on 10-year Australian bonds rose 10 basis points to 5.22 percent. The price of the 6.25 percent bond maturing in April 2015 fell 0.769 or A$7.69 per A$1,000 face amount, to 107.727. Bond yields move inversely to the price.
``We expect the trend to continue to be a compression of the 10-year Australian and U.S. yield spread,'' said Trinh, a currency strategist in Wellington. ``That suggests to us the Australian dollar will be capped.''



Dippenhall SSS 19:13 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
bahrian..at 1,2170 i ll be happy to take profit on cad....wishful thinking me thinks

Sydney 19:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Slowdown harks back to days of recession
August 2, 2005

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The fresh financial year has heralded more heartache for Australian manufacturers, with activity falling to levels not seen since the last recession.

And with today's Reserve Bank board meeting expected to coincide with the release of weak national retail sales figures, economists were unanimous yesterday in calling for another "no-change" decision on interest rates.
The Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers performance of manufacturing index fell 6.5 points to 48.7 points last month, the first time since July 2001 it has dipped below the 50-point level that indicates expansion.
Activity was weakest in the construction materials industry and in the consumer discretionary lines of clothing, footwear and publishing.But activity remains strong in the industrial metals, transport equipment, machinery and furniture industries.But the overall outlook for manufacturing remained bleak for this quarter, she said, pointing to a build-up in stocks last month and a fall in new orders.The weakness comes despite a drop in the Australian dollar to an average of US75.24c last month.But the fall was not enough to provide substantial relief to manufacturers facing competition from cheap imports and difficulty marketing exports abroad, Ms Ridout said.
The dollar closed at US75.95c yesterday.
National retail sales figures to be released today were also predicted to be disappointing and reveal a rise of just 0.5 per cent in June, despite widespread discounting by retailers.
National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster said cautious consumers were more concerned about saving their money than spending it, given the uncertain economic outlook.
CommSec chief equities economist Craig James said that with the average temperature in Sydney 2.8 degrees above normal last month, consumers would have had little inclination to "buy up big" on items such as heaters, warm clothing and blankets.
SMH

Spb Igor 19:08 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:05 GMT August 1, 2005
I am short eur/usd already from the us opening

I see now. Thks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:05 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
USDCad...shorting at 1.2170

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:05 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I am short eur/usd already from the us opening

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:03 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
to long there 1.2150
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/kalzayani/EURUSD.htm
it's going to 1.23

Spb Igor 18:59 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:53 GMT August 1, 2005
Placing Longs eur/usd 1.2150 for next 12 hours

12150 is your s/l? Thks.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:53 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Placing Longs eur/usd 1.2150 for next 12 hours

London. 18:50 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD prints a fresh session high of 1.2236, but UK trader says it looks like the pair is running out of steam ahead of 1.2260 5-week top. "We are seeing profit taking by banks and some corporate selling interest around these levels, probably because since the summer-lull started any move above 1.2225 has been short-lived," he adds.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:49 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
dow
will north I think
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/kalzayani/EURUSD.htm
at bottom

London. 18:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The euro just slipped below $1.2202 support, making Monday's action so a failed test of the wide band of resistance between $1.2265 and $1.2202. It's the technical set-up for a dip to $1.2148.

Ldn 18:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
AUD Econ: Look For Slowing Retail Sales

Spb Igor 17:54 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM// How are you buddy? How're major longs workin' out for you?

Spb Igor 17:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
hk ab 17:45 GMT August 1, 2005

10 pips had a good schedule at the end of the Friday. Do the search on his entries

Houston RJ 17:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
session times,0.30-7,7.30-13.00 and 13.30-20.30 g.m.t.I think so

hk ab 17:45 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
How long could the crude be manipulated by dlr/cad traders?...interesting...

The Netherlands Purk 17:37 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Sorry for this, but can someone give me the closing times of the sessions in GMT. PECS Andras gave me the opening times already.
Thanks
Purk

Farnham SFH 17:31 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
jus bought some more $cad @ 1.21 05...fwiw...looking for a move back to 1.2150...

Spb Igor 16:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Helsinki iw 16:29 GMT August 1, 2005

Nobody is wrong here. Data comes out, technicals unfolds and this is when the order is placed. We should appreciate each others view and make up our own game at the end. You got a very strong point too my friend. Gl and gt.

Pozarevac Kocev 16:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Spb Ivan ... Thanks...

But as I can see Bahram 10 pips is lafing ... and until now he is one of the best shother her as I can see. So everything is posible....

Thnk......

SPIS PG 16:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
ath 16:12 GMT August 1, 2005
yeah...and also it's not sarcastic, ironic etc...as this forum has been a lot recently

Dippenhall SSS 16:32 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Go for it Igor!!

Helsinki iw 16:29 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Igor, have you thought about the possibility that as the data is expected to be good, everybody is already overweight dollars? Whereas the IMF report, possible rising political tension in the Middle East and fear of the US housing market might induce profit taking among those trend followers that are long USD. Not to mention fear of central bank diversification. Then again I'm not saying you are wrong, to me only a break of 1.2350/60 would mean the dollar has turned for the medium term. Interim resistance at 1.2290/00.

IMHO

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:26 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
.... :) ....

Spb Igor 16:21 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Pozarevac Kocev 16:14 GMT August 1, 2005

Lots of longs are in play, the value will start to go down before Fridays payroll data as it is expected to be USD positive. 12150 should be a bottom I think. Lots of EUR USD data releases so it will be the range trading. After the Friday ... will see.

Gen dk 16:16 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Spb Igor 16:14 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
ath 16:12 GMT August 1, 2005

C'mon now ...

Pozarevac Kocev 16:14 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
SPB Igor...

Ok..I tougth it was someone else....Sorry...
SO...What do you thing about EUR/USD ?

ath 16:12 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
sfh
at least it is in english so we can all follow
lol

Spb Igor 16:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Pozarevac Kocev 16:00 GMT August 1, 2005

Hello, Kocev. Petersburg, Russia and trading about a year or so.

Farnham SFH 16:02 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Pozarevac Kocev

This an interview??

Tallinn viies 16:01 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
euro tested 1,2250 for third time and failed agaain.
first support now at 1,2160/65.
good to trail stop to 1,2279 now.

Pozarevac Kocev 16:00 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
SPB Igor....

From where do you come from ..... and how long are you trading on Forex

Bangkok bkk 15:59 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
IMHO,

AUD/USD rose to recent high after surge of commodity price. The rally of Euro also helped to boost the sentiment towards commodity-related currencies. It may be able to test 0.7685/90 again soon.

Spb Igor 15:56 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
slv sam 15:53 GMT August 1, 2005

... it will be just in time to pay for my nursing home. lol

slv sam 15:53 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
slv sam 14:04 GMT August 1, 2005
it is possible to make good money (+450 pips!!) with shorting the euro here at 1.2230 with s/l at 1.2340/50 imho! GT

Not too late!!

Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 15:50 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Farnham, My Thoughts too. THX. g.t

Farnham SFH 15:49 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader

Think its already been seen..

Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 15:47 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Anyone hazarding cable's top today?

Spb Igor 15:43 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I feel like before 1973 ...

San Juan Lil 15:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
my high for the euro was 1.2249

London Templar 15:17 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
People - appologies, 1.2252 traded. I was a little pre-emptive. The DNT is broken.

Gen dk 15:12 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Goes SpongeBob 15:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
to be more clear ... the range I play with is 1.2150-1.2350 for the time being ... FWIW & IMO

gt

Philadelphia Caba 15:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
London Templar 14:59 GMT August 1, 2005
My news data provider said that topside barrier of a 1.1950-1.2250 DNT was triggered....

Goes SpongeBob 15:08 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
the real play is at 1.2350 ... the test there will take place sooner then later ... FWIW and IMO only

bye

USA Biscuit Boy 15:04 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Cheers Templar the highest it changed hands on my retail platform was 49 but we all know how reliable that info is lol.

London Templar 14:59 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 14:57 GMT August 1, 2005
So was 50 paid Templar or is that 1.2250 dnt still intact???

Still intact

USA Biscuit Boy 14:57 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
So was 50 paid Templar or is that 1.2250 dnt still intact???

CAIRO AG 14:57 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
SSS// 2-3 pips doesnt really matter my friend... its all about WHEN u push the button....

GL in your trades.

london iain 14:56 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Well, at least it's nice to see somebody giving eur up there for those on the right.,..like me. Nice average now for sure, but with a stop at 1.2270, I'd hardly say i'm confident in the trade. If it does somehow reverse, i'm still working with a triangle interpretation, which means new lows should be seen in time, as long as 1.2250 stays intact..

Farnham SFH 14:56 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
just sold some STG/YEN @198.40...

London Templar 14:52 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
IMHO EURUSD, has offered at 50 on EBS. Look to be in a short euro long dollar trade on the next trip..

GL GT

Dippenhall SSS 14:52 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
CAIRO AG

thats what i mean on GVI u posted a short at 1.7695....

CAIRO AG 14:40 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
SSS// cause ( and that was posted on GVI ) if my entry is at 1.7697 its a BE.... what i was saying is that if Toronto was in earlier with 2-3 even 5 pips than still this is not considered a loss IF you re seeing the move going against you.... right? or would you wait till its 150 pips away??LOL

Having said that, stopping yourself out or letting your position run may be looked at from each of us differently based on size of account, size of trade taken, money management, ... etc.

However, when i posted that, only thing i had in my mind was to keep Toronto of my trade situation cause we were talking about the cable move earlier.

GL

San Juan Lil 14:35 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
that is 112.20+!

San Juan Lil 14:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
reversed $jpy to short
stop at 1.20+

Dippenhall SSS 14:31 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
CAIRO AG 14:28

not that it is any big deal but if it is BE ,..why do u say 2-3 pip loss?

San Juan Lil 14:31 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
thanks K, me not good with funnymentals ...

Toronto 14:30 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
oh sorry cairo...i thought it was loss....good luck my friend thanks for your advice

CAIRO AG 14:28 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Toronto// why loss... BE u mean.... and even a 2-3 p loss is not considered a loss when u got good part of the daily move... Good luck.

Ldn 14:27 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
NZD/USD: Eases Slightly As US Bond Yields Hit Fresh Highs

Kaunas dar 14:26 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
San Juan Lil 14:16 GMT That means no more than cityb expectation of short term rates going up..

London. 14:26 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
A leading indicator for demand in the U.S. housing sector rose in June to its third-highest level on record, a real estate industry group said Monday. The National Association of Realtors said its index for pending sales of existing homes rose 0.6% in June to 126.3, a level 3.6% above the year-earlier month. David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said the June index suggests existing home sales "will stay in record territory for transactions in July and August." Monday's report on pending home sales follows reports last week of unexpectedly strong growth in June home sales. The NAR reported home resales increased 2.7% in June to a record annual rate of 7.33 million. The Commerce Department reported new home sales also reached a record-high in June, growing 4.0% to a 1.37 million annual pace. Low interest rates helped. Freddie Mac (FRE) surveys showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in June fell to 5.58% from 5.72% in May.


Goes SpongeBob 14:24 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 10:09 GMT August 1, 2005

placed short orders @ 199/- as day orders for 50pips ... if will not print today then will place @ 200.80 for tomorrow ... hope I could help.

bye

Kaunas dar 14:23 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/overview_ED3087.html

Toronto 14:23 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
close for loss? sad to hear
i'm going to keep adding, 10 shorts up to 1.78 is still not bad...my margin is well protected

CAIRO AG 14:18 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Toronto// will close my cable shorts at 1.7697 ask... dont really like the move.

San Juan Lil 14:16 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
the latter meaning a bullish move?? TIA

Ldn 14:11 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
NYC 14:09 GMT correct

NYC 14:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
LDN: Is that eur/usd or eurdollar (interest rate) puts? I would think it is the latter.

Ldn 14:06 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Word from the trading floor is that Citibank has bought 10K of the June 94.45 Eurodollar puts. This is a bearish trade on its face

Ldn 14:05 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
US ISM July Employment Index 53.2 Vs June 49.9
US ISM July New Orders Index 60.6 Vs June 57.2
US ISM July Production Index 61.2 Vs June 55.6
US ISM July Inventories 47.5 Vs June 47.8

Ldn Delboy 14:04 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
This is the fourth consecutive month that construction outlays have fallen.

slv sam 14:04 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
it is possible to make good money (+450 pips!!) with shorting the euro here at 1.2230 with s/l at 1.2340/50 imho! GT

Farnham SFH 14:03 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
sold more cable at 17717...fwiw

Ldn Delboy 14:03 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
June construction spending falls 0.3% vs +0.8 expt

Philadelphia Caba 14:03 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
US ECON: Construction Spg Dropped Unexpectedly in June (-0.3%)

ath 14:02 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
ism manufacturing 56.6
ism prices paid 48.5
pending home sales .6

Ldn 14:00 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
DJ US ISM July Business Index 56.6 Vs June 53.8

USA Biscuit Boy 14:00 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
london iain 12:47 GMT August 1, 2005

Yes I fully agree regarding closing price. Dollar index has not closed below its 50 day ma since March.....a lagging indicator of the end of the one-sided market.

FM you about today? Good start to the week :)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:00 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY short added

Ldn 13:59 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD TECHS: Short Trade Taken With A 0.7465 Target

IFR newswire header

Bangkok bkk 13:58 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Still hold long GBP from 1.7615 USD and AUD from 0.7595 USD. May try to long Euro if it can trade and close above 1.2245 USD.

GL.

pd cumino 13:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Any views on AUD/NZD?

Toronto MRC 13:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Martin I know you have checked out for a couple days but if you get a chance your read on usdcad with oil higher the news from Saudi are the funds trying to long taking a break or has this changed the model? TIA MRC

ldn red 13:35 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
cad. bids ahead of 50. stops close below.

London N 13:32 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
THAR SHE BLOWS!!

Ldn Delboy 13:29 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
WARNING: JPY weakness is defying the moves in the underlying domestic market in Japan. Japan unemployment hit a seven-year low on Friday, improving the economic outlook, and the Nikkei continued to rally overnight, rising to 11,946 and the highest since March 9th. 12,000 is a key psychological level for the
index.
JGBs were sold for the sixth session in a row with the yields rising to the highest since May 17th. The improved economic data in Japan has increased speculation that the BOJ will have to exit the quantitative easing strategy, pushing Japanese rates higher.

London N 13:27 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
long on GBP/USD - it's trying to break through 17700 surely if it does will go to 7730 quite quickly?

Farnham SFH 13:27 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Does anyone have an opinion on $/cad? I am long at 12188...thought it might bounce earlier...so far nothing!

Dippenhall SSS 13:24 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
San Juan Lil 13:22


I agree but the ISM might have a lot to do with the direction of the dollar....

Ldn Delboy 13:24 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
EUR/JPY: Gains Defy Rises in Both Nikkei & JGB Yields. The same thing happened just before CNY reval!

San Juan Lil 13:22 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
$yen getting ready for a big move in the 4hr chart and judging from divergence in 15min, it should be UP
all imvvho OF COURSE
gl & gt

CAIRO AG 13:19 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Delboy// that 1.78xx-1.79 i meantioned are not necessarly for today.

CAIRO AG 13:18 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Delboy// am not saying it will not long.... only thing is that it will short a bit first before heading up again towards 1.7870-1.7920===> where it should start shorting again.

ALL IMVHO.

Toronto 13:17 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
CAIRO AG 13:16 GMT August 1, 2005

thanks sir....i think i have a decent short running....haven't added yet, will wait for data


gl & gt

CAIRO AG 13:16 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Toronto// 1.7700 has printed... looking for 1.7640-45 as target.

gl

Ldn Delboy 13:14 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
CAIRO AG 13:12 GMT
It looks like the repeat of July 12 to me! (1.7780-90)!

CAIRO AG 13:12 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
DELBOY// NOPE... all IMO.

Ldn Delboy 13:10 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
GBP 1.7695 is giving way, next target 1.7750!

Toronto 12:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
talk to you soon purk

london iain 12:47 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 12:36 GMT August 1, 2005

fwiw, i'd pay more attention to closing levels against ma's i.e. overshoots can be discounted as long as market can close above the level. That said, usd isn't looking particularly healthy at the moment..

The Netherlands Purk 12:47 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
TOR: yep, but have to go now. in an hour i will be back.
Be carefull with cable. This is not good mate. Something is wrong here.
Purk

San Juan Lil 12:45 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
must wait for new info at 14:00

Toronto 12:45 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Purk, do you have access to msn today?

The Netherlands Purk 12:42 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Cable: a lot of new highs today. USD/CHF is under 1,2750. This is not over yet guys. If the cable will close above 1,77, we will have a 178 on the boards tomorrow. Big bounce it seems to me than.
I will take my losses on the cable at 1,7725 and will start again.
Purk

CAIRO AG 12:42 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Toronto// cause intraday charts suggest that cable shouldnt be breaching 1.7714 NOW ( think it will eventually )... and when i said 1.7730 that was for any overshooting cause that pair has this bad habit...

USA Biscuit Boy 12:36 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Hi guys. Dollar index failed to bounce at its 50 day ma....it will test 85 in the near term IMO.

Toronto 12:35 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
thanks all...
CAIRO AG..why 1.7730? any specific reason?...tia

gl & gt

CAIRO AG 12:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Toronto... may be 1.7700 with a stop on all at 1.7730...
GL

Tallinn viies 12:33 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
good day,
selling euros here near 1,2240-60 area offers good opportunities. stop at 1,2299.

Farnham SFH 12:32 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
on a break of 1.7710...

Toronto 12:31 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Farnham SFH 12:25 GMT August 1, 2005
I'm short GBP from 1.7688 (1 of 10)..was +18 but didn't take profit
any suggestions where I may place second short?

London N 12:30 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Farnham

Not getting at you - you might still be proved right hasn't reached 2250 yet - just a bit of fun and excitement before I go "live" very soon!

CAIRO AG 12:28 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
London// IMO, i dont think 1.2250-60 area will be broken NOW AT LEAST...

GL with your trades.

Philadelphia Caba 12:26 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Good morning everyone!

Oh well, went short on aussie at .7610 & .7615 and kiwi at .6860 also. GT!

Farnham SFH 12:25 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
London N

I said it earlier,,,,and I dont trade a demo account

gl

London N 12:23 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Who said we wont see 2250 today!

Looks like we might see 2300!!

San Juan Lil 12:21 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
get ready for an avalanche of $buy orders!!
i hope and imvvho
GL all

London N 12:21 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD
GBP/USD closed out my shorts - going the other way now!

Global-View 12:20 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Please direct all "political" comments to the Political Forum. TIA

Manama 12:16 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Although, Oli price went up to 61$ upon his death...My deepest sympathy to the Ruling family and the Saudi people

London N 12:01 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
WOW - now we're moving downwards

trading the GBP/USD and EUR/USD as a pair seems to work quite well!

What a pity I'm still only demo trading!!!

Haifa ac 11:49 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
London N 11:48 GMT August 1, 2005
Has the market died?// No
Just paying respect to King Fahd.

London N 11:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Has the market died? Calm before the storm?
Waiting for New York to open I suppose!

London N 11:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Is EUR/USD on it's way down too?

Just tried a quick short at 12230

san diego bobl 11:33 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Some tough stuff out there...
I just bought eur/jpy @ 136.76
Will review the markets in a few...I believe the euro crosses less hazardess than usd crosses at the moment

gl/gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:30 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
rock and roll time/...yeeeee haaaaaaaa

Farnham SFH 11:29 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Toronto
Ty I am well amigo...just a bit frazzled since Friday afternoon....yes think by wednesday could come thru....who knows if the ISM is good maybe this p.m


gl

Toronto 11:28 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
so...gbp just dove

Toronto 11:25 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Farnham SFH 11:24 GMT August 1, 2005

thank you...I was thinking more so 1.76 by wednesday....

hope you are fine

Farnham SFH 11:24 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Toronto 11:21

I went short at 1.7610 ang 65...thought it good at the time...but beginning to doubt it for a day trade...

Toronto 11:21 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
this is an odd market
more us news today, we will see how it is taken now...hopefully the market reacts in predicatable ways...

thinking of loading up and shooting 10 gbp shorts on the way down to 1.7600....

anyone else think that is a reasonable target?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:17 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
CAD is serious for south

Dippenhall SSS 11:15 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
gone short $/yen @ 111.85....

KL KL 11:13 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
ok in again short gbpusd 1.7686 sl 97...lets see again and if I can get my losses back!!

San Juan Lil 11:11 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
sold euro 1.2226 stop at 1.2241
GL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/kalzayani/index.htm
Check out the chaos in all four Major...
USD/JPY wants north again

Hong Kong Qindex 11:07 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:06 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
one more usd Rally

London. 10:55 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Stephen Jen, chief currency strategist at Morgan Stanley, says the dollar can still overshoot in 3Q on the back of hawkish Fed comments on inflation. "However, the USD's inability to rally following reasonably good news on the economy puzzles me," he says. "But it is still hard to tell if this is due to low summer liquidity." EUR now at $1.2230 on EBS.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:55 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Shorting Euro
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/kalzayani/EURUSD.htm
Last Chart

Hong Kong Qindex 10:55 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
USD/CHF : current expected trading ranges has been posted : Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

London. 10:51 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The bounce in EUR/USD is unsustainable, say currency strategists at Citigroup. It's out of synch with bond spreads, US data look strong, and on a technical basis, the pair will likely struggle to close above resistance between 1.2196 and 1.2252. Flow evidence also points to the bounce failing, Citigroup strategists add. Spot now at 1.2235.

Lahore FM 10:42 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Adding two shorts NZD before leaving for laterz price 0.6856 stop 0,6880

San Juan Lil 10:41 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
stop on $jpy long at 111.78
GL

Lahore FM 10:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Added short 1.2229 stops moved to 1.2280 see ya all laterz

Farnham SFH 10:35 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I think if it doesnt break 112 in the next 30 mins it will trade lower...

Dippenhall SSS 10:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Any views on $/yen plse?

London. 10:19 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The 1.2239 level is a pivot for EUR/USD, says Royal Bank of Canada. Break and daily close above would reverse the medium-term downtrend and target 1.2503. While below 1.2239, the bank retains its bearish view with 1.1975 and 1.18 targeted.

London Templar 10:15 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
FWIW Hi guys as per my message on Friday. It is now worth shorting Eurusd at these levels in front of this weeks NFP.

I am short EurUSD 1.2220 with a 60** pip stop. I will add to more shorts if we go higher towards 1.2240 - 50. But will not change my stop at 1.2280**. The danger level is 1.2350. A break here will take us a lot higher IMHO.

GL GT

Smalll Correction.. My stop is at 1.2280

Lahore FM 10:13 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Correction**

Lahore FM 10:08 GMT August 1, 2005
Taking Aud /USD short 0.7608** with stop 1.7642 for 1.7550

Washington BPD 10:12 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Washington BPD 00:14 GMT August 1, 2005
taking a small short position in EUR/CHF at 1.5627... stop set at 1.5657


Closing half of position at +23 pips.... moving stop loss on remaining position to 1.5627

London Templar 10:12 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
FWIW Hi guys as per my message on Friday. It is now worth shorting Eurusd at these levels in front of this weeks NFP.

I am short EurUSD 1.2220 with a 50 pip stop. I will add to more shorts if we go higher towards 1.2240 - 50. But will not change my stop at 1.2270. The danger level is 1.2350. A break here will take us a lot higher IMHO.

GL GT

The Netherlands Purk 10:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
SpongeBob,
Do you short some more GBP/JPY? Looks like a nice challenge now...
Be nice
Purk

Lahore FM 10:08 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Taking Aud /USD short 0.7508 with stop 1.7642 for 1.7550

San Juan Lil 10:05 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
fwiw
it has been my observation for a while that when euro makes a higher high or lower low before the us session, it reverses after the news...

Lahore FM 10:02 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
hmmm SFH,taking EUR/USD short too, 1.2206 atop 1.2255 for 1.2085.

Farnham SFH 09:58 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:54

I have the same two positions as you but think I will turn around the $/cad around to short if it trades above 1,2200 within the next hour..

gl gt

pd cumino 09:57 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Any opinion here on AUD NZD? Thanks in advance.

Lahore FM 09:54 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Long USD/CAD 1.2173 stop 1.2130 for 1.2360

San Juan Lil 09:54 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
hello all,
long $jpy here,
GL & GTs

Lahore FM 09:53 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Having settled long currency positions this morning,rather prematurely,it is time to intitate some dollar longs.GBP/USD short at 1.7665.stop1.7710.target 1.7500

Hong Kong Qindex 09:28 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : current expected trading ranges has been posted.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Gen dk 09:24 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 09:24 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
One more question and i will stay low...: do the big boys have spreads as well? I see cable jumping up and down 10 times now from 17665 till 17660.
Interesting...
Purk

The Netherlands Purk 09:22 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Martin, I like your style man. I follow many posts here, and indeed some of he people here look like soccer supporters. When you win you are their hero, when you lose....
I am 40 years now, and I think that it has something to do with not grow up mentally. I know, because I also have some thoughts all the time. Thing is that WE are responsible for what we do and not somebody else. If you want to follow a dude, do it, but take the consequences.
Back to trading again.
Farnham: looks like your 17665 for cable is some point, trust that you will be in profit soon...
Purk

West Desert Flockmaster 09:20 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
G.C.Martin,Go on!I believe you.

Minneapolis DRS2 09:18 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I have a short order for EUR/USD at 1.2219. If price reaches 1.2240, another short order will be entered.

ath 09:18 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Ldn 09:12 GMT August 1, 2005
FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD 1.1825-1.2400 DNT In Play

MNI have been shouting another option 1.1950 1.2250 DNT expiry Aug 10
can u confirm this one aswell

mtia glgt

Ldn 09:17 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Farnham SFH 09:15 ifr news

Farnham SFH 09:15 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Ldn 09:12 GMT

what is the time frame on that?

London. 09:14 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Economists look for a marginal improvement in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index in July, forecast to rise to 54.0 from 53.8, according to a DJ/CNBC survey. "We're currently forecasting a reading of 54.0, but we're reviewing new data and may revise our estimate up to 55.0," says Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. Englund cited the composition of second quarter gross domestic product, reported Friday, which showed a very sharp swing from accumulation to inventory reduction in the quarter. "That's likely to bring about a big increase in manufacturing production in the current quarter." Data due 1400 GMT.

Ldn 09:12 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD 1.1825-1.2400 DNT In Play

The Netherlands Purk 09:07 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
And Bah1 as well, many good people still around. |Let us help eachother more!
Purk

The Netherlands Purk 09:06 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Thanks andras!!!!!

Bahrain Bah1 09:06 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:00GMT////

Check the below link..it might help. GL

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/

Dallas GEP 09:05 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Shorted eur/gbp @ 6916

The Netherlands Purk 09:04 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I see another day with "nobody knows" directions. So here is my opinion for today. Cable: low 17543, so that will be the low of today already. That means that we wcan see 177ish today.
Euro: 1,2250 is the first target.
And i will continue to short these pairs. Some people who trade opposite seem to gain a lot of profit. Feel a bit of a fool. I am going into high/low trading.
Good luck
Purk
Purk

Pecs Andras 09:04 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:00 GMT August 1, 2005
London session opens at 07:00 GMT
US session opens at 12:00 GMT
Asian session opens at 20:00 GM

Cape Town 09:02 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Re 08:48....come to sunny South Africa...we have real yields of over 6.5 % !

Gold coast martin 09:00 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
lol..It seems that some traders minds are as short as a 5 minute chart.....apart from the mindless comments that have ruined this forum......weekly direction for the euro has not changed.....12286 is the trigger point that will indicate a chnge in the weekly direction for the euro and 17709 for the gbp.....for now shorting gbp and euro @17660-70 and 12220 -12225 levels will yield weekly targets of 11983 and 17385.....or the alternative is long from these levels and become a statistic by wednesday.......
thats all for until friday.....g.t

The Netherlands Purk 09:00 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Question: does somebody have the gmt times of all the sessions, asian, us, european, UK?
Thanks
Purk

perrie como 08:56 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Perrie: Rate cut is just another signal of a deflationary global crisis, wher overindebted govs and multinationals are the only gainers, this while many sorts of small taxes are rising all over making us thinking there's the feudal age economy resurrection looming on

btw think we might need a global carta magna to be rewritten again

Hong Kong Qindex 08:54 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bangkok bkk 08:53 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Euro may be able to break above 1.2240/50 area this week. I would probably buy on break rather sell on rallies this time. Next target is around 1.2350 USD.

London. 08:50 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
HSBC: Rate Cut By BOE Would Be Beneficial To Business

London. 08:48 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
BNP Paribas expects the UK economy to grow at its slowest pace for more than twelve years, and says the "Bank of England is definitely positioned for a rate cut in August." Adds that at its current 4.75% base rate and 2% annual inflation rate, the UK stands out in terms of level of nominal and real rates. Forecasts a 25 bp rate cut for August and another 25bp cut for September

Kaunas dar 08:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
"Nothing have changed" G.C. M...

Beijing Laowen 08:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
nt, I added 1 lot of crude sell @61.05. Will add if 61.30 is seen.

Omaha Warren 08:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I'm doubling up.

perrie como 08:45 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
c'mon....now tell me you are always right ...It seems the small fishes are getting hungry of some bigger fish dish to gain some self motivation ....better watch a movie then with your preferred hero, if that s the point of your postings...

btw If I do remeber there was a 1.2161 SAR on eurusd on friday....and as usual when things are seemingly turining out of their squeezy side motions It takes a bit to work on It before having any time to post here...

btw this is all for free...both stupid and smart calls

have a nice long vacation

London aa 08:45 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Warren, we are really happy you are on the forum.
Are you still short the dollar?

hk ab 08:43 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I think eur 1.23, chf 1.2750 (Martin eyed level) and gbp 1.77 will be the line in the sand.

Omaha Warren 08:41 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Martin is the sales guy in my new currency fund. Obviously that is where his forte is. We have other boys doing the trading.

hk ab 08:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
WHere's martin at these interesting moment? would like to hear what he says.

Gen dk 08:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

perrie como 08:37 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Droughts, twisters, floods: what on earth has happened to our weather?



http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1539752,00.html

Pecs Andras 08:35 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I am laso hearing that the UK rate cut may not be a one off move but the start of a cutting cycle.
This does not bodes well for bulls expecting 78-8000

Farnham SFH 08:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
London N 08:30 GMT

WElcome ...if euro/$ goes to 12250 soon i think that will cap the up move...I am not sure we will see that today

Pecs Andras 08:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
UK July Manuf. PMI 49.2, well below forecast

Syd 08:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
UK manufacturing purchasing managers index slipped to 49.2 in July compared with June's 49.6. This comes as a surprise as economists surveyed by DJN had forecast an improvement to 50.0. The fact the manufacturing PMI has now been in contraction for three straight months has all but sealed a Bank of England rate cut Thursday. 17 out of 19 economists surveyed expect the Monetary Policy Committee to cut rates to 4.50%

ldn red 08:33 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
euro. 12255 is imp level. massive stops above there

The Netherlands Purk 08:31 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Shorted some cable as well here. But if the usd/chf will come under 12756, I am out.
Purk

London N 08:30 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Hi, I'm new to the forum (and to fx trading)- looks great with a lot of helpful input!

EUR/USD going up to 2250?

London. 08:29 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
As USD/CHF continues to trade just under 1.30, SNB Hildebrand's dovish comments should give the pair a lift. He says the bank is confident about growth in 2H and claims inflation is not a worry. If that the case, says Bear Stearns, this means SNB "will not react at all quickly with higher rates

Farnham SFH 08:24 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
just shorted cable at 17665....hoping for a bit of two way action from here...

Gen dk 08:21 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 08:20 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Top of the day allllll, short gbpusd 1.7652 sl 62 lets see.

Gen dk 08:19 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

whyalla australia 08:17 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Euro Bank Chief
Found Dead In Pool
By Alex Duval Smith in Paris
The Independent - UK
8-1-5

Wim Duisenberg, who led the European Central Bank when the euro was introduced in 2002, has been found dead at a villa in south-eastern France. Police sources indicated they were not treating the death as suspicious.

Police said Mr Duisenberg, who was Dutch and aged 70, was found dead in a swimming pool at a villa in the town of Faucon, near Orange, yesterday morning. The cause of death was not given but it is understood paramedics called to the scene tried at length to resuscitate him.

The French Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin, paid tribute to the "leading role" played by Mr Duisenberg in the "creation and stability" of the European single currency during his time as president of the Central Bank from 1998 to 2003.

Strikingly white-haired and known as someone who enjoyed golf, good wine and food, Mr Duisenberg began his career as a university professor and moved to the International Monetary Fund in the 1960s. He was a socialist finance minister of the Netherlands between 1973 and 1977 and adopted hardline anti-inflation policies during the two oil crises of the decade.

He headed the Dutch central bank for 15 years, from 1982, before switching to European financial institutions. When the time came to choose a president for the European Central Bank, Mr Duisenberg was Germany's candidate but Paris wanted the French central banker Jean-Claude Trichet to be appointed. Under a compromise, Mr Duisenberg stepped down in 2003, after five years in the post, to hand over to M. Trichet.

Syd 08:16 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The euro zone manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in July from 49.9 in June, indicating that the sector expanded for the first time since March, with exporters benefitting from the euro's recent depreciation against the dollar. Slightly stronger than expected, but with domestic demand still weak, ECB is unlikely to move soon

Madrid CAB 08:10 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
EU PMI 50.8

Syd 08:08 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
The German manufacturing PMI remained at 49.8 in July, below forecasts of 50.7, as employment subindex fell 1.5 points to 46.8. This indicates the expected recovery in German industry is still not certain, after rises in Ifo, ZEW surveys had bolstered hopes that industrial slowdown had ended. But deterioration in employment component suggest consumer sentiment will stay depressed for some time

Madrid CAB 07:58 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Fibonacci view
EUR/USD 1H MACD12/26/9 RSI14 EMA55
EUR/USD continues its rebound form 1.1965 today and did try to reach our mentioned upside target of 1.2188 (with 78.9% retracement of 1.2252 to 1.1965 at 1.2191 and 100% projection of 1.2034 to 1.2147 from 1.2073 at 1.2186). and reached as high as 1.2187. Now as hourly RSI is falling from overbought region with hour MACD is possibility of displaying bearish divergence sign, EUR/USD could be just limited by this cluster resistance and is turning into consolidation.
Touching of 23.6% retracement of 1.1965 to 1.2187 at 1.2135 will indicate consolidation is in progress with risk of further pull back to 55 hours EMA level (now at 1.2114). But cluster support at 1.2100 (38.2% retracement at 1.2102) should hold for further rally after consolidation. Break will indicate the rise from 1.1965 is probably over.
Meanwhile, breaking of 1.2188 decisively will indicate a the rebound from 1.1965 is still in progress to correct medium term down trend from 1.3123.

EUR/USD 4H MACD12/26/9 RSI14 EMA55
Taking a look at a broader picture, decisive break of 1.2188 cluster resistance will strongly suggest the whole corrective rebound from 1.1873 has resumed after consolidative actions between 1.1952 and 1.2252. Next upside target will be cluster resistance at 1.2352 (with 38.2% retracement of 1.3123 to 1.1865 at 1.2346, and 100% projection of 1.1873 to 1.2254 from 1.1965 at 1.2346 too).

Farnham SFH 07:56 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I think this is going to be a tough week...

Ldn 07:54 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: EUR/JPY Large 136.35 Expiry Today
FX OPTIONS: USD/JPY 114.00 & 115.00 OT"s Expire This Week

IFR newswire

Goes SpongeBob 07:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
ath 07:40 GMT August 1, 2005

same wishes from here ... buy EUR on dips and sell USD on highs are the songs singing here ... we will see ...

gt

ath 07:40 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
morning spongebob
hope u have a good month ahead

ur contacts may be right as all i have are the reports from bbg radio

gl gt

Goes SpongeBob 07:38 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
ath 07:27 GMT August 1, 2005

are you sure ???
my sources informed me that ac and zp voted as best CIA (=downgraded Mossad vesrion) puppets in the middle-east ... they just prepare the fastest boat to bring them to Saudi-American soil for the ceremony.

will be very nice to see the two in Mecca during the Haj, while they tell the muslims there about there views about the muslim world ... !!!

gt

Bangkok SC 07:28 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
hk ab 07:25 GMT August 1, 2005

Yes ab, probably around 1.7850 - 1.7950 before Wednesday afternoon.

ath 07:27 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
king abdullah
answering my own question bit early here

Bangkok bkk 07:26 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD -- Just Long @ 0.7595

Goes SpongeBob 07:25 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
ath 07:23 GMT August 1, 2005

kfar saba zp & Haifa ac

hk ab 07:25 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
bkk// see any chance for gbp going to 1.8 line after the breaking "news" from BOE this week? GT.

ath 07:23 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
who is next in line to king fahd?
mtia

Gen dk 07:22 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Madrid CAB 07:10 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Saudi King Fahd dies in hospital- diplomat
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2005-08-01T070456Z_01_N01217922_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-SAUDI-KING-DC.XML

Bangkok bkk 07:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
FWIW.

GBP is very strong, it traded above 1.7616 resistance early this week. The demand near 1.7600 was strong after it break 1.7616 former resistance, which may form the platform for further rally for the next 2-3 days.

Farnham SFH 07:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
popped out of the room...taken out of cable but long $/cad at 1.2188..

Farnham SFH 06:51 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
1.7635

LA fxnew 06:49 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
cool //

where do u place your stoop?

thanks

Farnham SFH 06:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
1.7550....short term view..

philadelphia cnp 06:46 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
phils ac 06:26 GMT August 1, 2005

BOE is widely expected to cut rates this thursday, that idea may keep it from getting too ahead of itself

LA fxnew 06:45 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
what is your target pal?

Farnham SFH 06:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
LA fxnew


Yes I just went short at 1.7605

Madrid CAB 06:37 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   

GMT CCY Events Cons Prev

7:45 EUR Italian Reuters PMI Manufacturing (JUL) 49.8 49.4
7:50 EUR French Reuters PMI Manufacturing (JUL) 51.2 50.7
7:55 EUR German Reuters PMI Manufacturing (JUL) 50.6 49.8
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone Reuters PMI Manufactu. (JUL) 50.5 49.9
8:30 GBP M0 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL) 0.8% 0.2%
8:30 GBP M0 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL) 4.4% 3.8%
8:30 GBP CIPS PMI Manufacturing (JUL) 50.0 49.6
14:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUN) 0.6% -0.9%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (JUL) 54.5 53.8
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing - Prices Paid (JUL) 52.7 50.5
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales MoM (JUN) 0.8% -2.0%

GL & GT all

Syd 06:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Australian manufacturers reported Monday they face the toughest business conditions in four years as export struggle to be competitive and domestic demand sags.

Coming just 24 hours ahead of a monthly Reserve Bank board meeting, the performance manufacturing index data for July ensures interest rates will be left on hold for a fifth straight month, economists said.

The PMI fell by 6.5 points in July to 48.7 points, a four year low. An index reading below 50 points indicates contraction in business activity.

phils ac 06:26 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast: martin
how do u see cable this week?...........

Toronto MRC 06:26 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
fxnew from higher but looking to close

LA fxnew 06:25 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
anyone short cable from this point?

t hanks

hk ab 06:16 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
so quiet

Haifa ac 05:41 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Terror works on FEAR FACTOR. Once they "announce" it--it won't happen. Only the fear effect will work.

London. 05:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Terror cell plans 'third wave'
Correspondents in London
August 01, 2005
A THIRD Islamist terror cell is on the loose and planning multiple suicide bomb attacks against Tube trains and other soft targets in London, security sources say.

Intelligence reports about a cell with access to explosives and plans to unleash a "third wave" of attacks was the trigger for a huge security exercise in the British capital on Thursday. The operation involved 6000 police, many of them armed, patrolling across London.

Senior officers said there was specific intelligence from several sources that an attack was planned for that day. However, this contradicts statements by Scotland Yard that Thursday's security exercise - the biggest since World War II - was a precautionary operation aimed at reassuring the public.

The disclosure comes as a suspected bomber detained in Italy was reported to have admitted to involvement in the London attacks on July 21.

According to Italian reports, Hussain Osman told investigators the leader of the July 21 attacks was Muktar Said Ibrahim, who was arrested in London on Friday. Osman claimed Ibrahim had taught him how to make bombs. However, he said the blasts on July 21 were intended to be a political statement rather than to take lives.

Britain's Daily Telegraph said Scotland Yard was investigating evidence that the July 7 and July 21 attacks were planned from Saudi Arabia.

The paper said anti-terrorist officials believed Osman had telephoned a number in Saudi Arabia hours before his arrest in Rome on Friday. He was believed to be making only the most vital calls because he feared his mobile phone was being tracked by investigators.

Senior officers at Scotland Yard believed there were no links in Britain between the two cells, but one senior source told the newspaper the anti-terrorist squad was investigating ties between the two cells and "foreign camps" of terrorists.

Details of a third-wave terror plot to carry out multiple suicide attacks were disclosed to senior police commanders at an emergency Special Branch conference at Scotland Yard last Wednesday, sources said.

Members of the third cell are said to be independent of the July 7 and July 21 terrorists but to have "associations" with some of the terror suspects arrested in connection with the July 21 attacks.

Peter Clarke, head of the police anti-terrorist branch, said that despite capturing the five men linked to the failed July 21 attacks, "the threat remains, and is very real".

Another officer, a member of the Yard's firearms unit that captured three of the would-be suicide bombers in two raids in west London, said: "What we did on Friday was just the tip of the iceberg. There is some big stuff coming in the next few months. There's a big network that's got to be cracked."

Meanwhile, Zambia was preparing last night to hand over to British authorities the suspected mastermind of the fatal July 7 bombings, Haroon Rashid Aswad, who was arrested in Lusaka on July 20.

Osman, a 27-year-old asylum-seeker from Ethiopia who has British citizenship, was arrested by Italian police at his brother's flat in Rome after an international manhunt. Osman's second brother was reportedly arrested in Italy last night.

Italian authorities said Osman left Britain on a Eurostar train from Waterloo station five days after the July 21 attacks. He appears to have been cleared by British and French police and immigration officials, even though he was one of the most wanted men in the country and his CCTV picture was on posters throughout the station.

According to media reports, Osman confessed almost immediately to Italian police. "Yes, it's true, I was there on July 21. I'd been given a rucksack," he is said to have told the investigating officers.

Osman is reported to have said the attacks had been planned by Muktar Said Ibrahim, whom he said he had met at a gym in Notting Hill.

He claimed the group acted independently and had no links to the July 7 attacks, in which 56 people died, and had been taken by surprise by the suicide bombings two weeks earlier.

The group decided to carry out the attacks as a statement about the war in Iraq but was not linked to al-Qa'ida or any other terrorists, he reportedly said.

"Religion had nothing to do with this. We watched films. Muktar showed us videos with images of the war in Iraq. He said we must do something big. That's why we met."

Osman, who is suspected of the Shepherd's Bush attack, claimed they had not meant to kill anyone. "Ours was supposed to be a demonstrative act. We planned to carry out an attack ... we didn't want to kill, only to spread terror."

Ibrahim, the gang's alleged leader, is being questioned at Paddington Green top security police station in west London.

Ramzi Mohammed, the suspected Oval Tube bomber, was arrested with Ibrahim. Ramzi's brother, Wahbi, 23, is being questioned about a fifth device found near Wormwood Scrubs.

British newspapers reported yesterday that the girlfriends of Ibrahim and Ramzi Mohammed were arrested heading for London's Stansted airport.

The pair were arrested on Friday at central London's Liverpool Street rail terminus after fleeing a bag check.

London's Metropolitan Police released the two without charge on Friday after questioning.

British police were holding 11 suspects in custody yesterday over the two waves of attacks.

Twenty-eight people have been arrested during the investigations into the attacks and 11 remain in police custody.

AFP, The Sunday Times


Syd 04:32 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE
FRANKFURT -- Even as euro-zone governments plead with the European Central Bank for a rate cut to spark their stagnant economies, they are increasingly tying the bank's hands by making another move: raising taxes, which in turn is raising inflation.

Annual inflation in the 12-nation euro currency zone last month edged further above the ECB's target of just under 2%, and tax increases being put in place or proposed in several countries threaten to drive it even higher. The tax increases, direct and indirect, stem from countries' burgeoning spending and budget deficits, despite EU rules that limit government spending.

Several governments facing budget gaps are choosing to increase revenue, through taxes, rather than cut costs. But the new taxes, primarily on consumer goods, also increase the possibility that labor unions will demand and get wage raises to compensate for the increased cost of living. That would further entrench inflation and is likely to prompt the ECB to keep rates higher than it otherwise would.

Syd 04:02 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Economists are lifting projections for U.S. economic growth in the second half on expectations that the nation's retailers and manufacturers will be restocking inventories and ramping up production to keep up with demand.

The forecasts stem from Friday's report by the Commerce Department that gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of output of goods and services, adjusted for inflation -- grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the second quarter. The figure, roughly in line with expectations, marked a slowdown from the 3.8% growth rate registered in the first quarter and the 4.2% expansion for all of 2004.

Syd 03:51 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
WELLINGTON (AP)--The search was on Monday for exotic mosquitos capable of carrying tropical diseases that arrived on a cargo ship in New Zealand, a senior health official said Monday.

Quarantine staff at the Ports of Auckland found an exotic adult mosquito during a routine inspection Saturday, and later discovered larvae in cargo that arrived from South Pacific ports a few days earlier.

The larvae was from two species - the Asian Tiger and Yellow Fever mosquitoes. Neither is established in New Zealand, which currently has no serious mosquito-borne diseases.

Spb Igor 03:42 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Long USD/JPY at 112.18 stop 111.96. Looking for 113+ this week.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:30 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/kalzayani/AUDUSD.htm
Flat

Spb Igor 03:25 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Within 10 Pips// USD/CAD short is all you, baby!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:22 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Pted Eurcad...now short here

Spb Igor 03:16 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 03:09 GMT August 1, 2005

What was your EUR/CHF short reason, if you don't mind? Thks.

Philadelphia Caba 03:09 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Sold eur/chf at 1.5630 and leaving short orders for kiwi and aussie at .6830 resp. .7610

Spb Igor 03:08 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
EUR/JPY is on its way to 137.20. It is August and another Made in China surprise is very possible.

Auckland peat 02:49 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
From ABN-Amro

On Friday, the US published the first estimate of Q2 GDP and their annual revisions. This year we were treated to changes back to 2002. No doubt others will put a positive spin on the data, but following the revisions, the imbalances now appear even worse than I thought.
First the good news. Q2 GDP came in line with expectations. In spite of fears of a soft patch, 3.4% growth is still slightly faster than potential. The composition of growth will cheer the bulls. Business investment was stronger than the shipments data had
suggested. Net trade produced a large positive contribution to growth (1.6%). Consumer spending was as expected and contributed 2.3% to growth. Inventories fell and reduced GDP by 2.3%. This will be seen as a positive development as it means inventories are likely to add significantly to Q3 GDP. It is also clear that the economy ended Q2 with more upward momentum than it entered Q2.
Now the bad news. GDP was revised down around 0.3% each year between 2002-2004. In the absence of offsetting changes to the labour market data, this should reduce productivity growth by the same amount and raise unit labour costs. With
nominal GDP broadly unchanged, this meant inflation is now much higher than previously estimated. Donít try and blame energy prices. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (Greenspanís favourite measure of inflation) has now been at 2.0% or above, year-on-year, for the last five quarters. The Fed thought the core PCE deflator had only drifted up gently to 1.6% year-on-year. We think 2.0% is the Fedís upper tolerance range. If the Fed had been aware of this it might have hiked more aggressively. The fact that inflation appears to have eased slightly (the core PCE only rose 1.8% annualised in Q2) might provide some comfort.
So inflation is higher and growth weaker than we previously thought. But it gets worse. The trade deficit was also revised wider since 2003. This will probably be ignored because the trade deficit narrowed in Q2, but I should emphasize that the fall
in imports in Q2 is a direct result of the decision to run down inventories. As inventories begin to build again, the trade deficit is set to break new records. My final piece of bad news is that the level of corporate profits has been revised down almost
$60bn. Profits have still grown strongly over the last couple of years, just not quite as spectacularly. Oh, did I mention the saving ratio? It hit a new record low of just 0.2% in Q2.

Philadelphia Caba 02:49 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Sold eur/gbp at .6915

Spb Igor 02:43 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Howdy FM? Are you still holding your longs against USD? Very good my friend.

hk ab 02:41 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
I would say, euro is checked mate every time at its "gap" at 1.2270-1.23....

A break of 1.23 definitely will spark up the bulls towards 1.28.

Spb Igor 02:40 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Ok this is good. See if it can hold up.

hk ab 02:29 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
eur is v. neat in 5 mins chart....
pull out the ma 18 is clear.

Sydney E.M. 02:24 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
PORTLAND, Ore. (AFX) -- The U.S. economy is in "reasonably good shape," the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Janet Yellen, said Friday.

She expects the Fed to continue to raise interest rates, she said.

"Policy still appears to be somewhat accommodative, and, given the recent inflation performance and the dwindling of slack, it makes sense to continue the process of removing that accommodation," she said.

Inflation signals have been mixed, she said. By one measure -- the core personal consumption expenditure price index -- inflation "is at the upper end" of her comfort zone.

Still, inflation should moderate going forward, she said in a speech to community leaders in Portland, Ore. "The economy is on track to achieve price stability and maximum employment," she said.

"Some slack still remains" in the economy, and inflationary expectations are declining, she said.

Yellen's speech is the first major policy address by a Fed official since Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony before Congress last week. The Federal Open Market Committee meets Aug. 9, giving Fed officials a brief period to make their views known before the informal, weeklong pre-meeting blackout descends next Tuesday.

Neutral 'bands'

The Fed has raised interest rates nine times to 3.25% and Yellen said she didn't have a firm view of when, or at what level, this period of monetary tightening should end.

However, such decisions are becoming increasingly dependent on economic data as rates get closer to levels that are considered "neutral," meaning borrowing costs neither stimulate nor restrain the economy, she added.

The lowest rate that Yellen said she considers 'neutral' would be 3.5%, while the upper level of the band might be about 5.5%, she said, citing estimates from private economists and Federal Reserve research.

"We're still at the bottom edge of that band," Yellen added.

Flattening yield curve

Yellen also said a flattening yield curve -- a narrowing of the difference between short- and long-term interest rates -- was not inherently a concern.

Some economists have warned that such a flattening signals a slowdown because it has occurred before previous economic downturns.

Yellen did suggest that a flatter yield curve could encourage the Fed to lift short term rates higher.

"If the yield curve was going to be flatter, that would push up the 'neutral' Fed funds rate," she said.

That's because lower long-term borrowing costs could continue to stimulate growth and spending, she explained.

Yellen is a nonvoting member of the FOMC this year.

The main risks to her outlook are high energy prices, a growing trade gap and the low level of capital spending, which has not been as high as expected, given healthy growth and plush corporate balance sheets.

"The Fed had to keep interest rates exceptionally low for a long time just to get respectable, but not stellar, economic growth," she said.

While there are signs of a bubble in housing markets, "the financial system and consumers appear to be in a reasonably good shape to handle" a drop in house prices if that were to develop, she said.

The odds of widespread financial disruption from risky loans such as interest-only loans are "fairly slim," she said.

hk ab 02:23 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
very thin market...

London. 01:56 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
U.S. Treasuries May Extend Slide as Economy Expands
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries are poised to fall for a sixth straight week, the longest slump this year, on concern a strengthening economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to extend interest-rate increases into 2006

Syd 01:42 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Japan?s LDP worried about postal bill outcome

link

Reuters, Tokyo, July 31: Japan?s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose snap elections that are widely expected if the government?s controversial postal reform bills don?t go through Parliament this week, a senior party leader said today

Syd 01:39 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
08:30 GMT- UK- July Manufacturing PMI: vs. 49.6 in June
08:00 GMT- EUR- July Manufacturing PMI: vs. 49.9 in June
14:00 GMT- US- June Construction Spending
14:00 GMT- US- July ISM Manufacturing PMI: vs. 53.8 in June, see 54.0

London. 01:34 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
MARKET TALK: US GDP Data May Mean More Aggressive Fed[Dow Jones] Unexpected quickening in U.S. inflation will keep the Fed on track to tighten interest rates. It's also spurring a debate over pace, magnitude of future hikes. For now, most economists assume Greenspan & Co can stick to steady, modest, 25bp hikes at each meeting. But even as that's the case, robust GDP report Friday is fueling renewed debate as to whether they may have to act more aggressively.

London. 01:32 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Australian Dollar May Drop as Reduced Yield Gap Cuts Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001097&sid=aelr.lcCTrZs&refer=world_currencies

Dollar May Gain After Fed's Yellen Signals Higher Interest Rate
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=autLUHNEm_mQ

ARG B&BFx 01:26 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Euro Slide to 1.18 or mooorreee down???

The sideways in euro beginned in july 4, is making the last movements. A triangle pattern is unfolding since then, and the last leg is on progress as the blue counting shows. This counting shows a wave (A) in progress, needing one more leg down, wave 5, to complete the pattern. A triangle is counting in the wave 4 position, announcing this way that the last leg is near. Triangles only appear preceding the last impulse of a pattern. The target for this wave 5 is the support given for the middle and lower line of the channel, as show the daily chart. A break of the base channel line, validate de red counting, that shows a double zig zag W on way.

http://www.torosyososfx.com.ar/psfree.htm

Syd 00:36 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD is likely to drift with slightly soft tone after daily stochastics staged negative crossover in overbought territory last week and after weekly bearish harami pattern was posted at last week's close; this suggests market may test minor support on uptrend line from early July (now at 0.7550 and rising about 0.0011/day) early this week; any clear break (daily close) would pave way for retest of 0.7528 (50% retracement of rise from early July) in coming sessions; break of this support would be needed to target quite strong support in 0.7467-0.7489 area (lows mid-July, 61.8% retracement) to fuel further decline toward July 7 low of 0.7366.

NZD/USD is likely to consolidate with a mild downward bias after daily stochastics staged negative crossover near overbought territory early last week and after weekly bearish harami pattern was posted at last week's close; Friday's close below 0.6811 (38.2% retracement of rise from early July) for second time last week confirms NZD/USD likely to retest 50% retracement at 0.6787 early this week; any clear break (daily close) would immediately target 61.8% retracement at 0.6763; there's still good chance of it falling below this Fibonacci support this week, which would target July 8 low of 0.6885.

Washington BPD 00:14 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Good morning/evening traders...

taking a small short position in EUR/CHF at 1.5627... stop set at 1.5657

GT

London. 00:12 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Bombings hit London for £600m
LINK

London. 00:02 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Monday, August 1
Bank Holiday
Ireland Banks, businesses and government offices close.
Bank Holiday (New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory)
Australia Banks and government offices close.
Civic Holiday
Canada Markets, banks, businesses and government offices close
in most parts of Canada.

Syd 00:00 GMT August 1, 2005 Reply   
Not a good sign for aud short term....Aussie Manufacturing Contracts; PMI Below 50Australian manufacturing going through soft patch mid-year; PMI for July crumbles by 6.5 points to 48.7 points; reading below 50 points suggests sector now contracting. Exports sluggish and domestic demand cooling, creating headwinds for sector. Data further reason to think RBA board will hold rates steady at policy meeting Tuesday.

 




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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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