Forex Forum Archive for 01/03/2007

Melbourne Qindex 23:56 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD (0.9287) : The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 0.9254. The market is heading towards 0.9313.

ABHA FXS 23:48 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFx 22:51 GMT
yes, but watch gbp level breakout 9584 than 9960+

Gen dk 23:16 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 23:14 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
from GS_
Although the calendar reads January 3rd, today felt like the first day of 2007 with markets rowdy and trading robust. Demand for high yield currency from yesterday carried through today - with investors showing a large appepitite to fund purchases through JPY and CHF. A much worse than expected ADP employment figure hit the tape in early afternoon, casting doubt on the morning USD's morning rally. But the market quickly faded the news after an initial knee jerk reaction, and traded side ways pre-ISM. Rumours and realization of a strong ISM sent the USD soaring. Price action suggests that market was caught short USD as the DXY spiked closed to 83.90, reversing all lost ground on the last trading day in 2006. With equities up and bonds down, the sentiment in the markets finally feels like it's stepping back in to risk-taking zone from the sidelines. Expected another high volume day tomorrow with Japan back from Holidays, and NFP on Friday.

Syd 23:13 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Goldman Sachs suggests going long 12-month USD/HKD forwards as good opportunity to earn carry; notes HKD short rates now about 125 bps below U.S. rates: "we think earning this interest rate differential is attractive because we think the true probability of the HKMA moving the peg is very small in the foreseeable future." Though markets continue to speculate about possible change to HKD peg with USD/CNY rapidly approaching same levels as USD/HKD, "without full capital account liberalization and CNY convertibility a HKD link to the CNY is difficult and risky."

Syd 23:00 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Australian Industry Group-Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index up 1.0 point in December from November to 49.5 points, below 50 level separating expansion from contraction. Commonwealth Bank economist John Peters says lackluster performance reflects slower growth pulse of wider economy. Services sector hampered by rising interest rates and widespread drought, offsetting positives of strong jobs market and resources boom.

Singapore GFx 22:51 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Abha FXS,

GBP/USD 460pips thats 2.00 target, are you sure??

manchester 22:47 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
fxs, hope you are right

ABHA FXS 22:44 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd
my signal buy at 9490 for 460 pips

manchester 22:34 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
still holding my short usd/jpy 11960. 120000 is a big barrier, will be adding to shorts if we get back up to those levels

Tallinn viies 22:33 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
from MNI:
BULLET: EURO SUMMARY: Opened at $1.3235 after $1.3220/90.....
EURO SUMMARY: Opened at $1.3235 after $1.3220/90 overnight range.
-- Early action was sluggish but a negative readinbg on the ADP payrolls
projection saw dollar slippage and a euro bounce to $1.3260 that proved
short-lived. Euro eased lower, retreating to $1.3220 area in time for
mid-morning data as the dollar continued to hold a better tone and
release of better than expected ISM report, while short of a 53
"whisper," enabled the greenback to add to gains. Euro sliced through
$1.3200 area, erasing bids around $1.3200 and penetrating into a second
layer of demand in the $1.3180/70 zone. Later trade saw that demand
erased after euro failed to recover $1.3200 and late morning lows were
marked at $1.3157 before euro losses extended to $1.3151 in light
afternoon action ahead of FOMC minutes. Post minutes trade was mixed,
initial dollar strength giving way to a euro rebound from lows at
$1.3146 as euro buyers emerged. Euro ended near $1.3168 in limited
action.

Provided by: Market News International

Porto Genius 22:29 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
sell usdcad 1.1728

manchester 22:29 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
kaprikorn, on these forums and a couple of others

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:23 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 22:20 GMT //
hi purk - NZD is really relentlessly up trending along with AUD and their crosses - and to me it's strange given the USD strength today - any explanation?

Zurich 22:23 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Oindex,

take your time DR. thanks again

Tallinn viies 22:23 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
happy new year guys!

stay live (dont bet all you have )


talking about euro. end of the year and beginning of the year moves exactly like always.
todays move will start correction toward last week low 1,3090-95. dont see this move lot lower than last month low at 1,3050-55. idea to get heavily long near 1.3050 -1,31 area to go with expected nmove to 1,3365-70 (last year high btw). then next target at 1,3665-70 (this last target possible to see even before january is over)

basically - maybe couple of days selling down to 1,3060 and then up up up.
have really nice year ahead.

The Netherlands Purk 22:20 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
liverpool tk 22:12 GMT January 3, 2007

Than i suggest you read something about the kiwi there, it does strange things. But whatever you do, stick to YOUR plan!

Melbourne Qindex 22:20 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 22:16 GMT - I will answer you later today. My system is now running analysis of crude oil for my client.

Zurich 22:19 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Sorry multiple postings

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:18 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
manchester 22:15 GMT //
mate, where u keep reading this?

Zurich 22:17 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

What happens to gbp/chf after 2.4026, is that the key reversal point or do we have more upside on that, same question for eur/chf after 1.6183. Thanks Dr

Zurich 22:17 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

What happens to gbp/chf after 2.4026, is that the key reversal point or do we have more upside on that, same question for eur/chf after 1.6183. Thanks Dr

Zurich 22:16 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

What happens to gbp/chf after 2.4026, is that the key reversal point or do we have more upside on that, same question for eur/chf after 1.6183. Thanks Dr

Melbourne Qindex 22:15 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFx 22:11 GMT - I need to run another analysis in my system when the market hit 231.81 before I can say anything.

manchester 22:15 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
keep reading everywhere that traders are waiting for GBP/JPY to come down to 231 to go long and push for 240 but will it come down that far in the short term with this yen weakness

liverpool tk 22:12 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
purk, good advice. im just gonna close out now.
im looking at NZD/USD now, hoping for a pull back to go long. seems NZD doesnt retrace like some of the other currencies against dollar

Singapore GFx 22:11 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

So a long on gbp/jpy around 231.80 area is good r/r. Thanks a lot

Melbourne Qindex 22:09 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFx 21:58 GMT - GBP/JPY : It is heading towards 231.81.

Toronto MRC 22:08 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
manchester 22:04 GMT January 3, 2007
im long cable 9493. is this gonna bounce back up or go down. nothing in the fundamentals to suggest a strong sell off like this.

Think your right

Melbourne Qindex 22:06 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : 1.5502 is likely the cycle peak and 1.5464 is a projected resistant level. The market will reverse its movement and head for [1.5194]*. the current expected trading range for a position trader is [1.5194] is [1.5194]* - [1.5640]*.


Melbourne Qindex 05:12 GMT January 2, 2007
EUR/CAD : Heading Towards 1.5519.

Melbourne Qindex 05:27 GMT January 2, 2007
EUR/CAD : A projected barrier is located at 1.5464.

manchester 22:04 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
im long cable 9493. is this gonna bounce back up or go down. nothing in the fundamentals to suggest a strong sell off like this.

The Netherlands Purk 22:02 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Well TK, dont do foolish things with the s/l now.
I wish you a cheerfull night.
e/j can easily go back to 15780 again and above that remember that. If it does not go under 157 soon 15680 is off...

Singapore GFx 21:58 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Thanks Dr Q. Can you share your views on gbp/jpy please. Thanks

liverpool tk 21:58 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
netherlands, i closed half my position out at 15720, still got some shorts and looking for your target 15680 but im just relieved i got out this hole. nothing worse than being caught in the wong position

Melbourne Qindex 21:56 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFx 18:16 GMT - I do not follow NZD/USD.

Pecs Andras 21:54 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Caba
Where do you see it? I jave AFx but it never shows NZ or Aussie data :-(

Philadelphia Caba 21:50 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
NZ Trade Deficit for November 785 MLN NZD (837 MLN Median)

Pecs Andras 21:50 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Anybody has NZ trade balance?

Denver m23 21:37 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
So...does anyone have a target in mind for USD/CAD?
If say 1.1750 is passed then what?

LKWD JJ 20:53 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
oilman

Canada's Dollar Touches Nine-Month Low as Crude Oil Declines

By Haris Anwar

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar touched a nine-month low as crude oil prices tumbled and traders predicted the currency's decline will extend into the new year.

The currency tends to follow the price of commodities, which account for about 54 percent of Canada's exports. Crude oil, which peaked in July, declined today as mild weather in most of the U.S. reduced heating-fuel consumption.

``The commodity price picture is unlikely to be supportive for the currency going forward,'' said Marc Levesque, chief North America strategist at TD Securities Canada Inc. in Toronto.

The Netherlands Purk 20:44 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Well i think that someone from Liverpool is grinning there to see that the e/j is trading at these numbers. Now there was no bounce and we are doing the ticking to the downside so the appointment with 15680 is still valid.
Felt lucky and took a short usd/jpy a while back and autopilot took another 20 pips. No more trades for today or it has to be a long euro for 20 pips with very tight s/l.
If e/j is going back to 15750-60 the shorters might get caught....

Toronto MRC 20:37 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Houston CJ 20:13 GMT January 3, 2007

Oil's decline is from a reduction in demand due to a mild winter which will lead many to speculate a bad hurricane season. Actual prices are not far off this time last year. Big news in the U.S. is potential for wage inflation, a slowing economy and a housing sector that is just plain bad not to mention a stock market priced for perfection.

I think it would be reasonable to see cable touch the 2 marker and euro head towards 137 but where they close is a little tricky. I would look for usdcad to weaken as the U.S. stays slow and exports to China sag. rough target usdcad 127 and I would look for the yen to make a move back towards 109 or lower.

imho

LKWD JJ 20:34 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
OILMAN maybe usdcad needs colder weather in north america to start migration.

Cannes Oil man 20:13 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Aye sooner or later it's bound to happen, people have been calling it down for 7 years now..

Even though hard for the momemt and present economic conditions to see it below 1.25 area.

Houston CJ 20:13 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 19:32 GMT January 3, 2007
Thx... and I tend to agree with you, but the Dollar we all know the dollar is going to regain its legs sometime... it is just at matter of when! If oil falls below 50 again will we see an increase in core cpi, causing another rate hike who knows!

IMHO I think we are going to bounce in the current ranges until we get some unexpected news... at which time I hope I am on the correct side of the fence!

T/R
GBP/USD
R2 = 1.9847
R1 = 1.9750
S1 = 1.9500
S2 = 1.9431

EUR/USD
Dec. Range
R1 = 1.3369
S1 = 1.3060
May - Dec 06
R1 = 1.2970
S1 = 1.2470

Sofia mik 20:06 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Viena, my view -1,14
gl,gt

Sofia mik 20:04 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
BA 19:41 GMT January 3, 2007


Sofia mik 18:08 GMT December 29, 2006
Happy New Year to all Traders.
07-big surprise -greenbuckyear .



GL/GT

Vienna GD 20:03 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
BA 19:41 GMT January 3, 2007
What should we expect for EUR USD in this year ?

1.10, dow 10k again and au 1k ... my wild guesses for 2007.

warsaw TOMi 20:00 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
square cable 9510
square €/$ 3165

BA 19:41 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
What should we expect for EUR USD in this year ?

Toronto MRC 19:32 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 08:36 GMT January 2, 2007
If I had to guess the markets are pretty thin and this may just be a higher test on gbp and eur in what is still a range market. imho usdcad not confirming cable/euro strength
---------------------------------------------------
I would look at 19420-19400ish as a key area to keep the range alive. Many had closed positions through the holidays and few would want to put them back on without squeezing out some pips from the retail investor. I still think over the next short while usd weakness will re-emerge against eur and gbp followed in the not so distant future by some usd weakness on the yen. imho

warsaw TOMi 19:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
see my cable shorts are working tdy..

ldn jas 19:28 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 18:59 GMT January 3, 2007
do you still think eur/usd will see 13200 area ?

Houston CJ 19:16 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Anyone else see the cable returning to 1.9000 by the end of Jan? Daily chart looks like it might bounce around at current levels for a while, but it may breakout if this sell off continues much further.

NY RP 19:15 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Equities getting hit. Intersting reaction to Fed minutes.

ldn jas 19:00 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 18:59 GMT January 3, 2007
OK thanks

London Gooner 18:59 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 18:57 GMT January 3, 2007

s/l 1.3120

ldn jas 18:57 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 18:40 GMT January 3, 2007
Gooner - where is your stop for long eur/usd ?...thnx

coventry 18:45 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
nt, its easy quick pips right now with sensible stop loss

London Gooner 18:40 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
For the record:
actual exp prev
ISM Manufacturing Prices 47.5 54.0 53.5

hong kong nt 18:32 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
give up long cable at 1.950...

coventry 18:25 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
gone long 9494, s/l 9470. lets see what fed mins brings

Napoli DC 18:22 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Eur/$
i see an uptrend channel on the multi-hourly chart, with a base at 1.313
Will try long if it gets there
Comments welcome

Singapore GFx 18:16 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindes,

What the target for nzd/usd pls. Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 18:09 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:53 GMT January 3, 2007
USD/CAD : the market has a potential to trade between 1.1651 - 1.1849.

Melbourne Qindex 06:40 GMT January 3, 2007
USD/CAD : The market is pulling towards [1.1750]*. Crude Oil is weak and may trade below 60 mark. EUR/CAD is strong and it is heading higher.

Melbourne Qindex 18:01 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
I will go to bed now. See you guys later.

Melbourne Qindex 18:00 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:39 GMT January 3, 2007
EUR/CHF : Heading towards 1.6183.

Melbourne Qindex 17:59 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 17:51 GMT - Happy New Year!


GBP/USD : It is still under pressure when the market is trading below 1.9517. The odds are against long position. It may take 1 - 2 weeks to reach 1.9090. We have to wait and see whether it will trade below 1.9400.


I do not follow NZD/JPY.

Dallas The Paw 17:55 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 17:41 GMT January 3, 2007
If you think this move was about fundamentals at all..well that says enuf.

Manchester SA 17:40 GMT January 3, 2007

Yes the dollar is still weak for the same reasons it has been. The question is when will the market regain focus on those reasons. I don't know? Do you? Does anyone? lol

Melbourne Qindex 17:53 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the current expected trading range is 0.6695 - 0.6785.

Zurich 17:51 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Happy New Year Dr.

So gbp/usd is a sell still and the target of 9090, what the time frame please. Also your outlook for eur/chf and nzd/jpy will be very helpful. thank you

Melbourne Qindex 17:51 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Heading towards 1.2432* - 1.2448.

Gen dk 17:50 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 17:49 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:33 GMT January 3, 2007
GBP/AUD (2.4751) : The market is going to have a range trading between [2.4445]* - [2.4915]*. It will challenge the supporting strength of 2.4644. A projected supporting point is located at [2.4607]*.

Melbourne Qindex 17:47 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:22 GMT January 3, 2007
GBP/CHF : Heading Towards [2.4026]*

Melbourne Qindex 17:41 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:35 GMT January 3, 2007
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3228.

Melbourne Qindex 11:26 GMT January 3, 2007
EUR/JPY : The market has reached the daily high and it is pulling back a little and test the supporting strength of 157.42 - 157.68.

Melbourne Qindex 11:56 GMT January 3, 2007
GBP/USD : 1.9090 is the bonus.

Melbourne Qindex 11:55 GMT January 3, 2007
GBP/USD : The market is pulling towards [1.9412]*.

Melbourne Qindex 12:03 GMT January 3, 2007
USD/CHF : the market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.2217.

Maribor 17:41 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Dallas The Paw 17:23 GMT January 3, 2007
"The fundamentals are still in place. "

I don't know, but seems that other guys see "fundamentals" the other way. Funny "fundamentals"...?

Manchester SA 17:40 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Dallas - The Paw

I take it you'd agree that cable is still going up, up, up?

The lower it goes, the better the level to buy at?

Mmm?

Makassar Alimin 17:28 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
moved cable's stop profit now to 1.9573 rigid for +40 guaranteed, rest run overnight, hopefully some narrow consolidation before cracking that 1.94 defense to 1.92

Dallas The Paw 17:23 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Well I have to say it. This day, to me, is a complete shake out. I will be watching for the new net position numbers asap. gbp.usd drops 270 in a day??? The fundamentals are still in place. The fed still has it's hands tied regarding rate decisions. (Cut=hyperinflation, hike=deep recession, killing off main driver of consumer spending, djia). I know the technicals are bearish now but the deeper this thing goes the better value. imho

LKWD JJ 17:22 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
daily chart has next support @ 1.9433, 20 pips above 50ma(19413).

LKWD JJ 17:15 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
195.26 200 ma in cable . 4hr chart

manchester 17:14 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
any further downside on cable or are we going back up? ive gone long 19496 with s/l 19470

Makassar Alimin 17:07 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 16:41 GMT January 3, 2007

good trading logic there, cheers! gold's tanking is also not helping usd bears at the moment, things might change in following days, but today's not over yet

The Netherlands Purk 17:07 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Right, 15778-15750 done now. Only interested in the 20 pips lately. I dont see bounces of 50 pips. e/j

Dallas The Paw 17:01 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
to catt 16:02 GMT January 3, 2007

It was up a buck when I posted.

Gen dk 16:53 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

coventry 16:51 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
pw, what was your original thinking, did you have stop loss? it could bounce back up but now idea about the time frames

hk ooozmeeh 16:47 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
with the exception of yen, although 120 might hold, the rest of the majors are still within the short term consolidation range, play it smart boys, fwiw.

HK Kevin 16:42 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Does the FOMC Dec meeting minutes announce yet?

London Gooner 16:41 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Cable long stopped out for -58 pips.

Pretty fierce move from top to bottom daily boll in one session.
will wait to see if follow up occurs during next few sessions.
Loss of 1.9550 is not short term positive.

Longed EURUSD at 1.3166 - risky but 4H support should offer some
bounce - looking for 1.3200/10 area.

ABHA FXS 16:37 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd
target 9463/68 than r/r.

hk ooozmeeh 16:36 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
imho, i still feel there are some smart funds doing some late position adjustments, i believe this will be their last week to do so, and a clear view can be seen on friday's employment numbers, fwiw. good trades to all...

london pw 16:35 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
coventry 16:31 GMT January 3, 2007
1.3249

Philadelphia Caba 16:34 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
usd/jpy
..large stops are reported above 120.00 with a rumor circulating earlier today that the BOJ does not want USD/JPY above 120.00 before the Jan 16-17 board meeting. The rumor is odd since many believe that the BOJ is unconcerned about the currency levels and since a weak JPY would cushion the impact of a rate hike, limiting the damage to exporters if the JPY strengthened on such a move...(ifr)

coventry 16:31 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
pw. whats the entry level

london pw 16:28 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
I am currently long eur/usd - can anybody help with how low this may continue down ?..........thnx

manchester 16:27 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
short usd/jpy 11957. cant go too far wrong with a tight stop

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:23 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
currently trading the short side... adding on spikes covering on dips... thanks to the *1*

St. Annaland Bob 16:16 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:34 GMT January 3, 2007

thanks for the alert, neither myself or the cats need too much food even if both are (too) fat ... it's a pip riding trade that turned into free trade after closing 80% for 25pips ... I am crazy about trains, as long they made by LEGO, no more standing in front of them :-) ... now running with stops @ 1947x for the specific trade and will adjust after NY close ... happy trades to you

hk ab 16:15 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
nt, this eur/gbp and eur divergence spelling to buy euro atm, right?

to catt 16:02 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Dallas The Paw
wher e do u see the gold higher ?

-6.5$

hong kong nt 15:49 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Today's cable's drop is largely caused by unwinding of EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY, expect it is only short-lived...

hong kong nt 15:48 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Today's cable's drop is largely caused by unwinding of EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY, expect it is only short-lived...

Gen dk 15:43 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Makassar Alimin 15:40 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
think it is wise enough to consider taking some profit here if anyone keep some long usdcad from hundred pips below and leave 25% to see if 1.1730 can be cleared within 48 hours

Makassar Alimin 15:34 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 15:30 GMT January 3, 2007

Bob, looking at eurgbp, i can understand if one chooses to go long euro but gbp is a bit risky here just IMHO

Athens 15:32 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Intraday: $/CHF is testing a medium term resistance line around 1.2250 (orignbnationg off 1.2770). But it gets intraday O/B only above 1.2310.

Dallas The Paw 15:31 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
I can't believe gold is edging higher with the $$$ getting so much support. This day smells like yesterday's special. Can;t help myself to go long pound.usd.

Makassar Alimin 15:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
still watching loonie for further indication, nice mini trend on weekly although tough resistance levels coming up, once that gone, this mini trend could develop into major trend reversal, however like a lot of more experienced pros say, it is too early to call....

St. Annaland Bob 15:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
with cable 250pips lower on the day, cannot stop myself from taking long to buy my cats and myself some food.

HK Kevin 15:29 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
hastings 15:27 GMT, hope 119.50 resistance will be hold today.

hastings 15:27 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
kevin, the yen seems to be getting battered. whats the thinking behind the trade?

hong kong seek 15:27 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
small short $jpy ...11943 stopless

St. Annaland Bob 15:25 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
fc

let's see what market has in mind, but counting on 13210 during the next 24HRS before my s/l below 13120 (in case 13145 prints) hits looks like safe trade ... but, who knows

HK Kevin 15:24 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Shorted USD/JPY earlier at 119.48 with 50 pips stop.

hk ab 15:21 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
is mkt pausing for something?

hong kong nt 15:21 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
If fair value of EURO is 1.1, then a 30% overshoot may imply 1.43...

lugano fc 15:20 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
bob

not taken yet my target are 1.3163 i have 2 order 3175 and 3115 then stop will be 3067

slv sam 15:19 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
euro at 1.3188 now! will see both 1.35 and 1.25 THIS YEAR!GT

Gen dk 15:18 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

slv sam 15:18 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 14:16 GMT June 14, 2006
US$/CAD at 1.1110 WILL see 1.16/1.17 this summer, when exactly? no idea!GT

very hard to predict exact timing!
Happy new year!GT

Philadelphia Caba 15:16 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
have short usd/cad order waiting at 1.1720

St. Annaland Bob 15:14 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc

myself long 13185 and will add 13175/65/55/45/35 for target above 3450 with s/l below 13120 ... happy trades

manchester 15:13 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
support level cable 9499

Gen dk 15:12 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lugano fc 15:11 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
stop cancelled.....at 3170 i buy more eurusd and gbpusd stay long

Makassar Alimin 15:05 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
cable is under 1.9550 now, so moved stop to entry now of previous short from 1.9613, 1.9470/80 is in focus now, hopefully we will stay under 1.9550 for the close

liverpool tk 15:04 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
e/j is finally retreating a little, looking for 15730-40 area

RIC fxq 15:03 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
ISM 51.4 (DJ)

Ga Lee 14:59 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
tyvm for your time and thots Adam..def a post I'll study on..

CT Cris 14:59 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
cable may rise till 19600 then decline first till 19550.

Antibes Pierre 14:57 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
$/ZAR tells it's time to wave USD a healthy BYE with all hands and fingers (pairs & crosses) from here

The Netherlands Purk 14:46 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
liverpool tk 13:55 GMT January 3, 2007

e/j is a lagger when it not leads the dance....

lugano fc 14:46 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
longing eurusd and gbpusd here at market .... stop 1.3170 and 1.9510

Athens 14:21 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
An excerpt from Trendways weekly analysis on January 1st re the big pictire For mor info on Trendways Click here :

"As this is the first weekly analysis for 2007, it may be worth while saying a few things about the big picture before discussing the usual short/medium term outlook. It is quite obvious that the USD has remained soft, however it is also very clear that one could be led to different conclusions depending on the "width" of hs/her angle view i.e. on whether one focused only on a particular currency pair (and which one) or looked at all the major pairs before drawing any conclusion. Thus, for example, the USD has remained within its very wide long term consolidation range against the contis as the 2004 major USD bottoms are still in place, while it seems to have resumed its long term downtrend vs Sterling and it looks like knowing which way to go vs the Yen. No wonder then why 2006 can be characterized as a year of the crosses and, as am sure you all know, on any time horizon heavy cross action is practically seen only when the market has no clear view on the USD direction.

On yearly closing basis the US currency made large or small losses almost across the board, the only exception to the rule being $/JPY where the US Dollar finished 1% stronger than a year earlier. It also finished nearly unchanged (just 25 pips weaker) against the CAD. However, it ended the year softer by 11.4% vs EUR, 7.3% vs CHF, 13.7% vs GBP and 7.6% vs AUD. The Yen suffered striking losses against the Euro and the Pound, shedding about 12.5% against the former and almost 15% versus the latter.

Let us now make some thoughts for the year ahead. The time spent since December 2004, a full two year period has been rather too long for a consolidation period by historical evidence. Indeed, historical date sows that a long term consolidation phase usually lasts around 18 months and is followed by a clear price long term correction, which either is followed by a resumption of the previous long term trend or sets the star of a long term trend reversal. In the present case nothing is clear yet as neither case can be supported for the time being (again, GBP/$ looks like a clear case, but past experience shows that this pair is not always a classic indicator of the general USD direction. Staying with this pair a little longer, cable has yet to prove that its overly long term trend is up. The two major tops seen since January 1985 (the year of the grand concerted intervention to halt the Dollar's super strength against all the majors at the time) i.e. 2.0040 (February 1991) and 2.0100 (September 1992) still remain intact, therefore only a rise now past those highs could generate some USD panic selling at least on this particular pair. To illustrate the long term picture, here is a GBP/USD 1985-2006 chart.

Perhaps a fair indicator of the Dollar's future direction is the Yen. Back in 80's and the 90's $/JPY used to more or less move in rather similar fashion with the other major USD pairs, however since the introduction of the Euro in January 1999 we have seen a rather different picture more often than not and this has led to EUR/JPY very frequently rise during periods of USD weakness and fall in periods of USD strength. Put it in very simple words, it looks like the USD and the JPY stand on one side and the european currencies on the other in this de facto G-3 situation. It may be too risky to say that the USD moves in opposite directions against the EUR and the JPY. the safest indicator is EUR/JPY which can equally change dramatically even when the USD rises or falls against both components but at a very different pace. For the time being this cross keeps posting new highs and this has certainly kept the pressure on the Dollar downside (with regard to the majority of USD pairs), but any significant EUR/JPY downmove, especially a medium term one, could signal a probable reversal of the overall USD trend. Until we see such a development it would be pure guesswork to say that the Dollar is ready for a strong come back against the european majors. In older times a classic leading indicator used to be DEM/CHF where CHF weakness implied oncoming USD strength and v.v., however this is no longer valid and, rather the opposite, it looks like CHF weakness in this cross (EUR strength) usually implies USD weakness, too, although such a "signal" is not as good as that of the old DEM/CHF (in the opposite direction).

Looking at fundamentals I would only bother for interest rates and politics but not so much for the US current account deficit. This (and its partial component, the trade deficit) are no doubt monstrous and keep rising at "light speed" pace, however I don't see why it should become a new issue in the future. No long term USD downtrend has ever in the past brought in any improvement in the deficit, so why and how could those be done now? Besides, given that the most dramatic deficit widening has been seen on US trade with China and the Far East in general, it would be naive to accept that the main USD losses which have anyway been seen in the value of the US currency against the european currencies is in line with the US deficit as a remedy, pure nonsense. With regard to interest rates it is rather unlikely that the Fed will be in any rush to resume its rate hikes, rather the opposite, but at the same time I am not expecting the ECB to be too eager to raise its own rate. especially as long as the EUR remains strong. To that extent, interest rate differentials may remain a non event for some more time to come. As for politics, this is what I fear most, Republican Administrations, particularly second terms, are rather more associated with periods of Dollar weakness and thus far we have rather been looking at US benign neglect for its currency, but this could fast change if the stock and/or treasuries market looked like being threatened by heavy foreign disinvestment. "

Short term analysis and rechnical levels are found on the WA, daily T&S and IMC pages. Have a profitable year everyone.

HK Kevin 14:20 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Oily, as per your post earlier today, do you see a short-term imminent correction of USD/CAD? Many thanks.

Gen dk 14:10 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SOUTH AFRICA K.P 14:06 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
WHAT IS THE FASTEST WAY IN WHICH TO HANDLE MY TAX
ONCE THE FUNDS ARE IN MY LOCAL ACCOUNT? I WANT TO DECLARE THE MONEY AS SOON AS IT LANDS IN ORDER TO SORT OUT TAXES AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

THANKS

RIC fxq 14:01 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
liverpool tk 13:55 GMT

have you referenced GBPUSD today? v. sick looking.

Cannes Oil man 14:01 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
If planning anti trend trades, tight SL's is a requisite.
As my E/Y trade posted on GV-I.
gl gt

New York R19 14:00 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Compare EUR and GBP crosses on the day - especially EURGBP

Cannes Oil man 13:59 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Any GBP pair is going to be choppy..Euro is larger, doesn't get shaked with minor flows.

E/Y is still in bullish mode .

liverpool tk 13:55 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
can anyone suggest why GBP/JPY has retraced whilst EUR/JPY still trading within tight ranges today

Athens MK 13:39 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Hmmm.... If we are to see some bearish action for cable then an intraday target to sell is the following for tomorrow:
Sell: 1.9645-55
Sell: 1.9670-80
Stops accordingly to your R/R policies

Target: 1.9520-30
Target: 1.9480-90 usual stop hunting overruns at this level.

Well since I have the beginnings of a flu or cold I am out of the office but good luck trading....

London Gooner 13:38 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 12:38 GMT December 22, 2006
London Gooner 12:19 GMT December 21, 2006
London Gooner 13:12 GMT December 20, 2006

CADJPY: Current 101.90
Negative tone has increases with 50d sma below 200 -
Below 101.80 send to 100.80 -
100 important to avoid multi figure drop. indicators are negative though so risk of breakdown exists.
Looking at both CAD & JPY recent weakness vs USD - it implies that one should be cautious of potential near term JPY strengh across the board.

GBPUSD keeping an eye on weekly candle which could turn very bullish if price does not go below 1.9573 (open = low for this week) -

san miniato ab 13:20 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
adb employment report - 40.000 (as per expectations + 120.000 median)

Philadelphia Caba 13:14 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
coventry 13:07 GMT January 3, 2007
7500 a good pivot point ?????? where you got it?

Makassar Alimin 13:09 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 12:53 GMT January 3, 2007

agree MK, daily BB is narrowing, and today's rejection from the upper band will bring focus to test of the mid and lower band...will play accordingly...intraday i believe 1.965x area should hold for more downside and only if daily close above 1.9750 again will I reconsider going long gbpusd

coventry 13:07 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
7500 is a good pivot point on the current trend. current support levels around 7038.

Dallas The Paw 13:01 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
coventry 12:44 GMT January 3, 2007
NZD/USD - looking for this to retrace a little more then BANG! watch this shoot to 7450-7500 in weeks

I jumped in pretty big too. avg long at 7055. I'm not targeting 7400 though.. Do you have any justification for those levels mate?

Athens MK 12:53 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Cable weekly snapshot:

Weekly candle has not closed yet but I am showing a weakening of the momentum that we had from Nov. 3rd. Also this had been the third bullish wave that has been completed which usually signifies a trend reversal is in the makings.

A longer term bias target for cable that systems will try for is 1.9460-80 and 1.9220-40 areas.

If the level 1.9950 is broken then look to a bullish cable on the weekly view but the play will be bearish intraday until evidence is there to validate that scenario.

GLGT

London Carl 12:46 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner - Happy and Healthy New Year to you

I trust you are right with your GBP long - Would you believe I forgot about an order I had with C/M/C at 19645 and it got executed while I was out of the office

So around 40 pips in the crapper at the moment

My 4hr stuff sees a return to 19661 - so crossing fingers at the moment.

coventry 12:44 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD - looking for this to retrace a little more then BANG! watch this shoot to 7450-7500 in weeks

New Brighton gvm 12:39 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
HNY

dollar rally looks pathetic - good opportunity to buy some gold and swissy IMHO - censored, love that downdraft in copper - glad I aint long uS property

Makassar Alimin 12:34 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
usdcad is holding the key here i think, unless it is tanking under 1.1550, euro, gbp and others won't go anywhere, certainly not making new high IMHO

hastings 12:31 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
usd/jpy - does anyone see this as a good time to short?

NY RP 12:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
A Happy New Year it will be.
First full day of 07 today and it looks like the ship is well manned. Gold down and oil down while equities and the US Dollar up. Surprised anyone? Todays news will surely exaggerate any price movements. Gold is still the flovor of 07.
GL

London Gooner 12:26 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Best Wishes to all for 2007

GBPUSD:
Bought Cable 1.9598 s/l below 1.9550 (depstie uglyness of today Candle) 9600/05 is both 61.8% from 19515 and support tl from 18 Dec. I use 1.9550 as an important level since the market has only closed twice below in the past month or so.

EURUSD: needs to hold 1.3215 for higher. Below 1.3150 accelarate
downside for sub 1.3000 evntually.

US data this week is important to ndicate if the market will increase the specualtion for 100bp lower FED rates this year or soft landing more prolonged inaction from the FED.

iom stan 12:22 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
does any one here have any thoughts about competative devaluations ? and if this may have already started

Melbourne Qindex 12:19 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 12:17 GMT - Too early to say at this moment.

Global-View AFX 12:18 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
If you want access to our AFX News feed send us an EMAIL

German GDP growth seen slowing to 1.7 pct this year - DIW institute UPDATE

(Adds details)

BERLIN (AFX) - German GDP growth will slow to 1.7 pct this year from an anticipated growth rate of 2.3 pct in 2006, according to forecasts published by the Berlin-based economic think-tank Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW).

In 2008, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 2.5 pct, the institute said in a statement.

The outlook for 2007 and 2008 is "favourable" despite the Jan 1 increase in value-added tax, a restrictive monetary policy, the appreciation of the euro, a slight slowdown in global economic growth and expected higher wage deals, it noted.

The DIW said its forecasts are based on the assumption that the European Central Bank will hike its key interest rate to 4 pct this year.

The ECB last raised interest rates on Dec 7, hiking the minimum bid rate on its main refinancing operations to 3.50 pct from 3.25 pct.

Makassar Alimin 12:17 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:56 GMT January 3, 2007

Qindex, do you support the view of some that 2007 is the year of usd and it could've just started, or if not, what is your view in general this year?

Philadelphia Caba 12:17 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
We look for a NZ trade deficit of 0.947bn in Nov down from 1.167bn in Oct (market.: 0.84bn). The trade deficit would have only a temporary impact on the Kiwi dollar, which is currently more focused on cyclical data and the RBNZ rate outlook. (Barclays)

Roja Rosa 12:12 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Qindex with due respect in gbp which is at important phase of consolidation giving a call for 1.9090 looks a bit early still feel from here a move higher is the first possibility.

Athens MK 12:03 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Cable now at trendline support..... testing the waters so to speak....

Melbourne Qindex 12:03 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : the market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.2217.

Melbourne Qindex 11:56 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : 1.9090 is the bonus.

Melbourne Qindex 11:55 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is pulling towards [1.9412]*.

Makassar Alimin 11:55 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
tried short gbpusd 1.9613, stop 1.9650, looking for 1.9550 first and then 1.9480, then if break 1.92 is a bonus

Melbourne Qindex 11:53 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the market has a potential to trade between 1.1651 - 1.1849.

New York R19 11:46 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD/// Seems like the same smart money USD bears of TUE are pounding the pound now...

London 11:46 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
At the bottom of the Site. is .....the fbi is also believed to have contacted interpol in an attempt to negotiate the conditions for bin laden's transfer to the us. got you! april fool!

New York R19 11:45 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Reminder any form of internet sites/e-mail/computer related systems are wide open to fraud/hacking...

Makassar Alimin 11:45 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
cable is not looking good if 1.9550 area gives way, could easily and quickly slide to 1.92

Philadelphia Caba 11:44 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad 1.1690-1.1730 good r/r area to short, imo.

Porto Genius 11:44 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Porto Genius 01:52 GMT January 3, 2007
sell aud/usd 0.7972
sp-0.7952

closed! ;)

Gen dk 11:44 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

chicago hl 11:42 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
obl arrested in delhi

New York R19 11:39 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Yes, what are they doing - top of internet site is today's date and then:
Osama Bin Laden arrested at Delhi railway stationAdd to Clippings
Divya Vasisht
[ 1 Apr, 2002 1519hrs ISTTIMES NEWS NETWORK ]

Athens MK 11:37 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Ankara pimmel 11:27 GMT January 3, 2007

April 1st 2002 article....... ;)

Philadelphia Caba 11:36 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 15:36 GMT January 2, 2007
closed aussie short at market
have eur/chf short order at 1.6160 & 75 with 20 pips stop above 1.6200

Melbourne Qindex 11:31 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:40 GMT January 3, 2007

USD/CAD : The market is pulling towards [1.1750]*. Crude Oil is weak and may trade below 60 mark. EUR/CAD is strong and it is heading higher.

berlin jesper 11:28 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
netherlands, im looking for EUR/YYEN to come back to 15750 or lower before going long again, dont want to go long at these levels just yet

Ankara pimmel 11:27 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
OBL arrested

Cannes Oil man 11:27 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Should see 1.3350 + soon , if 1.3190 doesn't break.
gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 11:26 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market has reached the daily high and it is pulling back a little and test the supporting strength of 157.42 - 157.68.

Philadelphia Caba 11:19 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Good mornin'
eur/chf:
With global equity markets starting the year in fine form, this
has been an additional weight on the CHF, which is also
struggling as a member of the low-yielding currency class.
However, there is a good resistance area approaching at
1.6175-90 on EUR-CHF, representing a series of past highs
during 1999-2000 and this is a potential stopping point from a
short-term perspective. The SNB may be keen on averting a
break above this area. (Mellon)

The Netherlands Purk 11:11 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
berlin jesper 06:52 GMT January 3, 2007
netherlands, where u expecting this eur/j to go

Well Jesper, i say that it needs a correction, also see the post of NT. That correction is off once we push through the barrier that dr. Q is mentioning around the 15813ishes. 15799 high on my platty now. As long as the usd/jpy stays at these levels and the eur/chf the e/j is going to follow any lead up...

I will put my rubber over my head now and walk away.
Around 13:00 gmt we will see if e/j pushes further. The beast is not up today btw...

Kandahar Osama 11:09 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
London JBS 11:02 GMT January 3, 2007
His source is the stuff his smokes out of his Hookah...

Cannes Oil man 11:08 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
a "new" guy again , posting a news..
There's like 4 people on this forum with a huge identity problem....

New York R19 11:02 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Which wire do you see reporting that?

London JBS 11:02 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Ankara pimmel 10:57 GMT
Pimmel, could you post ur source? Thank you.

Ankara pimmel 10:57 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   

OBL arrested

lugano fc 10:45 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
close shorts eurusd and gbpusd as well as long usdchf

Athens MK 10:43 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
One more comment on the cable: 1.9520-30 area is a target that is a system strategy target if selling pressure continues so it is another favorite of mine for tomorrow...

Athens MK 10:39 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
manchester 10:31 GMT January 3, 2007

That IS a good level to close for the day. It is a possibility for the price to go down to 1.96 before retracing but I would look at the next retracement high before thinking of another short.

Today's targets have been met so I am happy now if there is a retracement high I would look at re-shorting again but I can't decide that until I see the picture later on this evening.

The latest two targets if the bearish bias continues which we will find out later on will be at:
Target: 1.9520-30 area
Target: 1.9480-90 area

These are targets I would look at tomorrow and the day after if and only if the bearish bias continues......

to catt 10:34 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
target 9600 looks logical

manchester 10:31 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
closed out at 9636, could have waited a little longer but a winner is a winner

Athens MK 10:31 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
If the slide in cable continues I would expect to see two more targets for the day especially if the 1.96 area is broken convincingly ...

Target: 1.9520-30 area
Target: 1.9480-90 area

Normally I do not put the levels as targets in the same day but for the next day forecast if bias stays bearish.....

Alaska Moon 10:24 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 10:20 GMT January 3, 2007
====
Thanks, MK...very good trade !!!
Moon

Sydney ge11ja 10:21 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 08:53 GMT January 3, 2007

good post

Athens MK 10:20 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 08:53 GMT January 3, 2007

if you read the post 08:53 it says at the end but the third target for me was at 1.9643 which has now been filled/touched....

manchester 10:18 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
athens, whats your 3rd target? im short from 9736

Athens MK 10:17 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
My first target of 1.9683 has been reached as well as the second target... Let see if the third target will be touched...

Gen dk 09:46 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 09:40 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.9734. Speculative selling pressure will increase when it is trading below 1.9697.

Melbourne Qindex 09:37 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : the market momentum is strong when it can trades above 1.2176.

Melbourne Qindex 09:35 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3228.

hk ab 09:13 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
dlr/cad still no top seen, stay away from short side for weak hearts like me.

Ga Lee 09:04 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
tyvm for your thots mk...and qindex as well, much appreciated...

liverpool tk 09:03 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
can anyone see eur/jpy coming down to 15730-40 area before it goes up much further?

Athens MK 08:53 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Good morning....

Just got in the office so need to look at the currencies but this is a snapshot of the gbp/$:

Cable looks like it is topping out and it needs to break 1.9950 for a push to 2.0X new highs.

Bias for now is bearish in the short-term especially if it breaks 1.9680 area. Looking for a target of 1.9667 to be touched and then a possible low of 1.9585

If 1.9750-60 breaks convincingly then the above picture needs to be reevaluated.

Remember two levels to look at for a bullish picture to emerged:
1.9750 area intraday high
1.9850 area yearly high

And a bearish daily picture to emerge:
1.9430-50 area broken

Bias bearish target intraday:

Sell: 1.9730-15 area
Stop: depends on your risk/reward policies

target 1: 1.9683
target 2: 1.9667
target 3: 1.9643 favorite target if bias mode continues for the day.

GLGT

hong kong nt 08:24 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY -- 4-hour chart pattern continues to favor buying on dips (100-150 pips), upside target is open but notice 163-165 resistance on monthly chart...

hong kong nt 08:02 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY may need some 150-pip correction before another round of buying..fwiw..

Melbourne Qindex 07:39 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : Heading towards 1.6183.

hong kong nt 07:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
KL -- guess a diagonal fifth is emerging, ideal A-20600, B-19400, C-21000, D-20000, E-21300...

Melbourne Qindex 06:56 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The odds are against any short positions when the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the projected resistance at 234.72. The market may move further ahead to tackle the range [236.46]* - [236.53]*.

berlin jesper 06:52 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
netherlands, where u expecting this eur/j to go

Glazgow J. Walker 06:49 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Purk Purkson, from time to time you talk like someone who had the bar fallen on his head and not like the one who fallen near the bar.

put that rubber thing around your head again, Alicia says your kisses are not so good as before, why?

The Netherlands Purk 06:45 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
In the meantime, the e/j did not retrace much, that means that normally we will see higher high etc. It looks ready for another run to the 158 series without retrace. aybe Oily Boily is right, until cb intervene nothing else but up. So take advantage of that and long the b...

hong kong nt 06:45 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
KL -- covered long today and guess market is retracing the rise from 18600 to 20600 before another new highs...

The Netherlands Purk 06:43 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
liverpool tk 22:44 GMT January 2, 2007

Yes, sit back relax, watch Dirk Kuyt on the telly saving Liverpool from the flood, and let the e/j do its job. You have taken a position, just watch it and follow the plan, and try to learn from the trade. We have all been in loss and most of us learned to have a plan and stick to it. A plan contains gains and losses entry and exit of the trade.
Loss has to contain the same feeling as a win in the future. Remember that i am trying to help you here, ad that we all still trying to learn.
Cheers and good luck.

Melbourne Qindex 06:40 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 06:33 GMT - Happy New Year!

USD/CAD : The market is pulling towards [1.1750]*. Crude Oil is weak and may trade below 60 mark. EUR/CADS is strong and it is heading higher.

Makassar Alimin 06:33 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:22 GMT January 3, 2007

nice to have you back with us here Qindex, happy new year 2007
do you have something to share re. usdcad? i was long and still waiting for 1.1730 which i anticipated by end of last year and hasn't been materialised, looks like the range has been so compressed that a big move can be anticipated rather soon, but am not sure if 1.17 will be the next level to be met, i feel that this 1.1650 area is rather toppish...still have some hope with stops in comfortable zone though...TIA

Melbourne Qindex 06:22 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : Heading Towards [2.4026]*

Melbourne Qindex 05:33 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/AUD (2.4751) : The market is going to have a range trading between [2.4445]* - [2.4915]*. It will challenge the supporting strength of 2.4644. A projected supporting point is located at [2.4607]*.

Makassar Alimin 05:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man: where do you see usdcad's route in the following weeks? chance to see 1.1730 then down?

AZUSA 4X-ed 04:50 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
1 Singapore forcast: anticipate an ISM below 50, ECB to hike only in May and not near term, CBJ may not to hike in January.
EY to hit 160, AUDY to hit 95+... fwiw

Houston CJ 04:34 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD: any news on the soft ceiling at 1.9740-50? Anyone know if banks are stop hunting?

KL KL 04:20 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
ninja happy to cover HSI 20290....220pips is a good day...reshort at near 12380

Porto Genius 04:17 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA Commonwealth Bank of Australia is right! AUD/USD will rise during 2007

AZUSA 4X-ed 04:07 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Two Biggest Banks Disagree on Currency (Bloomberg)

KL KL 03:49 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
nt

caught some short HSI 20510....lets see..time to go down for nice CNY up...LOL

hong kong nt 03:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 01:09 GMT January 3, 2007

do you expect gold to reach 730 again in Q1? good trades..

Cbj Jake 02:37 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Hedge Fund Motels - I mean hotels, the implication of transiency still remains however. In the news:UBS, et alia, lease nice offices, provide the pretty receptionist - even the milk and cookies! The DA's are wondering what that "wink - wink" crowd is up to....A friend, a well-educated european woman, visited one of these. What she told me made me laugh. A young guy told her his tale, strategy. Even she realized he had a sugar-daddy, "My son, the hedge fund manager". She,on the other, hand is terrified of money thinking it is far better that someone ELSE lose her money than she. The amount of money she loses daily just from lack of attention is enormous. This is very common among wealthy women I have known. Then you get the yong kid from HK driving around the university town in a red porsche politely anticipating the yellow light - not knowing the local tradition is to give a "head's up" 10 seconds honk before the red light changes to green! Big money, just like sex, is hilarious!

Porto Genius 01:52 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
sell aud/usd 0.7972
sp-0.7952

Philadelphia Caba 01:48 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
aud/usd, price action is now trading near three years long term resistance zone from .7988 to .8003. If not obvious sellers is seen at these levels, we expect the cross to enter into a major bull phase with a minimum long term price target at .8962 (censored bank)

any comments, ... GC Martin? tia.

Mla MM 01:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
New to this forum. Hi guys. Anyone has outlook for the week for dollar/yen?

NY RP 01:09 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Nice to see that the US is NOT the only one running the printing presses full time. EU is following suit. Does anyone know how to print GOLD? JK Good luck.

Zurich 01:09 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Wellington Am,

It is a shame you dont post often here. i still remember one great advice you gave me on cable couple of months back. Will take up the advice and will observe dollar/yen. thanks a lot and happy new year and gt.

wellington am 01:04 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 00:58 GMT January 3, 2007

just apply your standard TA/money management approaches mate - as for other pairs, i'd might be tempted to sell $/jpy at these levels. of course you could do both, and use a short $/jpy as a hedge. gl, gt.

Zurich 00:58 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Wellington AM,

Thanks. What would your stop loss for this pair be and which other pairs are you referring to. Thanks

wellington am 00:55 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 00:51 GMT January 3, 2007

It's a buy, if you have the time to baby sit it, and/or have some good stops in place. But that said, once it starts to sell off it will be dramatic and there are probably better risk reward pairs out there.

Well done on your long trade!

Zurich 00:51 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Wellington AM,

Was holding nzd/jpy from 77.60 the tp at 83.02 and went short, got stopped out. Now thinking of going long since I dont see any weakness on this pair. But has been going up without much correction at all. Your target could be right, but just wondering whether to long now or to wait for 83 area again. Any inputs welcomed. thanks

syd 00:48 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 00:45 GMT Hi still not back flying out today 2p.m just checking markets thanks and Happy New Year

wellington am 00:46 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 00:41 GMT January 3, 2007

NZD/JPY is just scarey. If you want to shut your eyes and press buy, a possible target is ~.90 based on AUD/JPY getting 100.

GL.

Philadelphia Caba 00:45 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
welcome back SYD and happy new year!

syd 00:43 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Theme of JPY remaining primary carry funding currency intact into end-2006, says Rabobank, noting IMM net positioning as of Dec. 26 showed JPY shorts extending back toward October's record highs, adding 81.4k short positions in last 3 weeks and now just some 30k contracts shy of highs. Says final 2006 positioning snapshot showed market still heavily net long EUR, even though positions pared a bit; in dollar-bloc positioning remains extreme with market still "heavily long of AUD," just below recent highs, representing "a continuation of the carry trade."

Zurich 00:41 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Wellington Am,


Where is this nzd/jpy heading?/

USA BAy 00:35 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba and Oilman,

Under current levels, what will be a safer bet, going long or short on the eur/chf pair. Your reply is greatly appreciated. Thank You

wellington am 00:35 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 21:14 GMT January 2, 2007

So are you look for more upside on NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD?

These pairs seem to be a nice steady grind higher, but am unsure about longing form these levels - diminishing risk reward

Philadelphia Caba 00:31 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY:
1.6125 61.8% Of 1.7185 - 1.4405
1.6160 Jan 2000 High

I'd wait for test of above levels, if seen....

Cannes Oil man 00:30 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
EURCHF :

Barrier at 1.6120.

USA BAY 00:13 GMT January 3, 2007 Reply   
Guys can anyone tell me if eur/chf is a short at the current level or more room for upside. thanks