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Forex Forum Archive for 01/04/2007

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NY RP 23:58 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY achieved target of 118.80 from 119.40 last evening.
Gold is taking some heat. We give it between now and the end of January to makes it mark in the sand and make its ascend much, much, much higher. For those not long yet, you can either buy low or buy high. GL

Melbourne Qindex 23:54 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.59.

manchester 23:52 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
sorry, thats long 6980 and s/l 6827

manchester 23:52 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
sorry, thats long 6980 and s/l 6827

manchester 23:51 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
i have s/l at 6827 and long 6880!! dont know whether to close out position now or move s/l right down to 6900 and hope bounces back up tomorrow. need some help

Melbourne Qindex 23:51 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards 229.43.

London C 23:49 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
before asia

Melbourne Qindex 23:48 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 23:45 GMT - EUR/USD : The hard one is 1.3136 - 1.3141.

London C 23:48 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
machester
Its only a matter of 30 pips or so and i want to go sleep ..so i'm hoping

Gen dk 23:47 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 23:46 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Heading Towards 154.88.

ldn jas 23:45 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:42 GMT January 4, 2007
OK- so hard to push thro ?

Syd 23:44 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Aussie @ 0.7847/51....Trend Reversal in the offing?
R: 0.7860 / 0.7877
S: 0.7824 / 0.7800
The Aussie continued with its sharp selloff, which started at 0.7982 yesterday. It has hit a low of 0.7828 so far in the day. It is currently trading at the Trendline Support at 0.7850 mentioned in the morning, but still way below the statistically projected Max Low for the day of 0.7877, signifying further downside momentum. A Day Close below 0.7850 could signal a trend reversal, targeting 0.7700
Kshitij Consultancy



Melbourne Qindex 23:42 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 23:37 GMT : EUR/USD : 1.3093 - 1.3097 is a projected barrier.

manchester 23:40 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
C, do you think we will get to 6900 -6920 areas in asia trading?

Gen dk 23:39 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 23:39 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY : The next targets are 95.26 and 94.62.

ldn jas 23:37 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:33 GMT January 4, 2007
Qindex - do you have any levels for eur/usd - I am trying to get out of a long and ideally would like 13110 area...thanks

manchester 23:35 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
i soon as i write, the price NZD/USD free falling. will take risk and move my stop loss back and hope bounces back up tomorrow

Melbourne Qindex 23:35 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : Pulling Towards 100.27.

london C 23:35 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
targets for nzd ....first 6925 ..second 6900 ..third 6885/65

Syd 23:33 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
The Osama mystery
http://media.smh.com.au/?sy=smh&category=Breaking+News&rid=24788&source=smh.com.au%2F

Melbourne Qindex 23:33 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Heading Towards 92.45.

manchester 23:30 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
im expecting NFP figures to be quite weak so hoping we dont get down to 6900. hoping 6965 area holds and then shooting back up

Syd 23:27 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Manchester Hi, 6900 should hold today before a bounce

manchester 23:20 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY, im long NZD/USD 6980. where do u suggest a s/l before NFP released

Cannes Oil man 23:18 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Would definitely help US pay the deficits.

Philadelphia Caba 22:53 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
sold usd/cad at 1.1775, s/l above 1.1835, t/p 1.1650

ldn jas 22:50 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:30 GMT January 4, 2007
any hope for eur/usd longs on the horizon ?

Ankara Pimmel 22:41 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
2007 the year of tears for USD bulls

Melbourne Qindex 22:31 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Pulling towards [118.23]*

Cannes Oil man 22:30 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
True, though comparatively the NZD has not suffered much (yet)..

Particularly on NZDJPY and vs conti's.

Syd 22:23 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD needs to hold above 0.6927 technical level to prevent further slump, says RBC Capital Markets currency strategist Sue Trinh; adds break of this level would further trigger exit of momentum accounts. Notes with carry trades coming under pressure, Kiwi also weakens vs JPY; NZD/JPY last 83.03, down 2% from this week's 84.70 peak; NZD/USD 0.6977, off 1.7% from 0.7098 peak reached Tuesday

NY R19 21:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Oil //// Now that it is dropping so much, I will go buy a Hummer H1, jk. Interesting to see USD trade in the coming days if metals/oil continue to get pressured...

BEIRUT MK 20:40 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy at 119.09 target 121+

san miniato ab 20:06 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Philip Abu Dhabi 19:45 GMT January 4, 2007
before the release of ADP survey wish showed yesterday a surprising negative print of 40.000 units ( against exp of + 120.000) the NFP were expected to add 120.000/130.000 new workers. Now there is more uncertainty as somebody lowered this expection to 50.000/70.000 but some continues to see still a number above the 100.000 units.




Philip Abu Dhabi 19:45 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Whats the outlook on US payroll data

The Netherlands Purk 19:36 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Levels in e/j: 15577-15551-15537-15505-15487 for tomorrow. That can be spoiled by 15680 or the high of today 15730.....
We might get some specs to jump on shorting the e/j, than we should have some fun....

The Netherlands Purk 19:30 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
e/j and we now can add that we have the turnaround. We used to have the ticky ticky to the highs, today we had ticky ticky, baboom through the lows....

Makassar Alimin 19:12 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
small long usdjpy 119.27, stops 118.80, target open, will see if this survives the NFP, might see a nice surprise if goes according to plan, good luck

Zurich 19:11 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
melbourne Qindex.

Dr Q, when you are free could you pls share your gbp/jpy and eur/jpy analysis with us. Thanks so much

teh 19:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY breached first level of support at 232.10 and is eying 231.24. If that holds I'd long it, if not I'd ride down to 229.42 and we might see a break all the way down to 225 where the uptrend towards 240 started.

NY R19 19:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Oil //// As it is priced in USD, any comments? Surprised to see few comments from OPEC (The oil PPT) about this 2-day weather driven destruction. Today I saw one comment from Iran and one from an OPEC spokesman...

Tallinn viies 19:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
NY MMM 16:26 GMT - 1,3035 or 1,3045.
if it trades under 1,3050 my plan didnt work

The Netherlands Purk 18:32 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Oily Boily, you are confusing me, you frist told us that e/j was still in bullish mode, than you told us that you shorted in front of 158, and than you tell us that the carry trades are somewhat unfold?
Tell me what you mean, is the e/j going down from here more and "carry" us back to the 14725 what supposed to be my year high, or that we are going to 160-185 that you where mentioning before?

The Netherlands Purk 18:28 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
E/J instead of telling upfront in where it is going we just have to face the facts, and those facts are that i did not see a fast 50+ bounce today at the 15602 low.... like we saw the last few months.
To go down more we first need some pips up..
Shorters dont want to see 15680+

coventry 18:16 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
manchester, 6970 is a critical level, if that breaks 6814-20 is the next target. on the upside 7021 should be resistance level.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:15 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Short term view: nzd/usd pair is on a correction with several key support points taken out already. Support (6960-70) is still hanging on as the indicators reach an O/S levels. Next support levels are 6940-50, 6860-70 and main support 6815-25 for now. Resistance levels are 7000-10 and 7050-60 for now as well. It is still buy on failed dips until the main support is taken out IMHO. Peace and GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:06 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Short term view: eur/usd pair is testing the main support now but no break has happened yet with indicators in the O/S area. Resistance levels are 3145-55, 3175-85 and 3205-15 area for now. Under the main support the next significant support is around the 3030-40, 2920-30 and 2820-30 IMHO. Peace and GT

manchester 18:05 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
has anyone any opinion on NZD/USD at these levels? im still long 6980

LKWD JJ 17:55 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
potential double top in cable with 197.48/50 as tops with 19515 dip , leading way to 19280. any thoughts ?

usd jpy 119.22 should be support from 12/25-26 highs.

Singapore GFX 17:42 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Caribean Rafe,


Are you still in India. You mean short entry level 1.3003. thanks

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:34 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Rye,NY et 17:30 GMT January 4, 2007

13003 short is better ;)

Rye,NY et 17:30 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...According to my charts, the short-term uptrend has now rolled over into yet another Bearish Channel. The channel falls between the high of Dec. 8 and the low of Dec 18. The market, as before, will probably range in this channel for a few weeks before another surge to the upside. With the downmove of the last two days, we might see a bounce from the Channel Support line, which tomorrow comes in at 1.3014. A persuasive break of that level, however, would look for more USD strength up to the 1.2800 area....Just my view....GL/GT

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:27 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Euro 13120 will only sustain temporarily until downside pressure forces it backdown a little more... it's better to sell rather than buy for this week imo. right now 13125 is resistance 13172 is stiff resistance.

I personally think euro has more downside potential for now than upside, next week might be a long, i usually know over the weekends.

gl,

Cannes Oil man 17:24 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Though this levels are still ok for a continuation of the Euro trend.
We are where we left off on 25--29 december , before thin trading.
In trend , when it looks like price will break down, the pair is "saved" and sent back the other way..Last time it happened just 60 pips below current level.

Cannes Oil man 17:19 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Euro$ needs to pop above 1.3120 to relieve pressure on the stops 1.3070.

NY R19 17:19 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
I thought everyone "believes" in a PPT at least a little. Anyway, it is looking more and more likely that the market is preparing for Friday US NFP.

Van jv 17:16 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Party may continue tomorrow on US empl. data---Exp. 110K,
may get a surprise

hk ab 16:52 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
party is over. euro, gbp and XAG will return to north pole.

CT Cris 16:36 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
cable and eur in downtrend ,sell after each rise.

NY MMM 16:26 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
thankss viies..
but where is your stop for all those long ?

Tallinn viies 16:22 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
NY MMM 16:06 long euros yes,
will add also at 1,3065.
no need to be afraid. NFP will show as light for next week.

RIC fxq 16:20 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
NY R19 16:16 GMT

what nonsense, beware of hosts and gremlins too! rotflma

hong kong nt 16:18 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
decide to defer E/J purchase until 18/20 dma..fwiw..

coventry 16:17 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
from what ive read NFP figures likely to be weak

NY R19 16:16 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD - GBPUSD //// How much more work will the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) do to hold this level? Looks like they let up a bit just now. Major PPT in cable because PMI Services was so great!

NY MMM 16:06 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
viies:

do u start building long euro here?

if so, arent you afraid of tomorrow nfp?

Tallinn viies 15:59 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EURO-DOLLAR: Seeing choppy trade as the pair flits between $1.3085 ish
and $1.3100 area, unable to quite reach morning lows seen earlier in the
day as chatter emerges of Asian name demand at those lows, underpinning
the pair ahead of reported stops. That said, backfilling chatter from
another direction cites the same Asian name as a hefty euro seller in
European morning trade, keeping the pair rolling lower ahead of the U.S.
market opening. French and German names linked to the recent rebound to
above $1.3100 but model accounts said to have slapped the pair back down
again.

Provided by: Market News International

HK Kevin 15:49 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:20 GMT, don't know whether 120 will be broken in Feb, but USD/JPY in my view is going to re-test 117.50.

manchester 15:28 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
ab, havent got a short term target as such but am looking for 11790. japan effectively on holiday till tomorrow, lets see what they think of these higher levels

lugano fc 15:27 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
...very curious to see what happen when europe will close...

NY R19 15:23 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Commodities //// I am sure this has mentioned, hard to assess how much of USD rally since TUE night has been a result of commodity sell off - metals/oil.

Cannes Oil man 15:20 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:15 GMT January 4, 2007

Just lost 30 pips on my shorts from 1.1730.
Currently flat on the pair.
Guess today will be decisive for $/CAD and EUR$ (break under 1.3080 == bad).
gl gt

Makassar Alimin 15:20 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
too many trying to pick the usdjpy's top, thus it won't go accordingly, not yet!

san miniato ab 15:15 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
manchester 15:10 GMT January 4, 2007
hi my frd, just to share ur opinion abt usdyen short (my one is at 119,33 with sl at 120,10 for the mom but in case of break of 119 ill lower it at 119,20) may i know where is ur target pls? i have 117,80 for me tia and gl

HK Kevin 15:15 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 15:02 GMT, many thanks for your guidance. Let's see how USD/JPY develop to confirm what you said "the broad based reduction in carry trades".
May I aslo have your view on USD/CAD?

san miniato ab 15:14 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Denver m23 11:28 GMT January 4, 2007

manchester 15:10 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
dee, yes im still short USD/JPY. think its quite a safe trade at 11965 + with stop losses above 12000

ABHA FXS 15:06 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
trend_ alert
break out UP signal

GBPUSD 240 Minute BUY at 1.9449 Date 2007.01.04 Time 15:05

HK Kevin 15:05 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, watch EUR support 1.3090 and Cable 1.9360 for clue of resumption of dlr weakness

Napoli DC 15:04 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
2nd long €/usd 1,3094

ABHA FXS 15:04 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 15:02 GMT
corrction...
gbpusd 1.9440

ABHA FXS 15:02 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
short usdchf 1.2313
short usdjpy 119.25
long gbpusd 1.9540
long eurusd 1.3093

Cannes Oil man 15:02 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Kevin:(from gvi)
Cannes Oil man 14:44 GMT January 4, 2007
JPY experienced broad gains via the crosses amid a broad based reduction in carry trades. A rise in risk premiums and volatility fueled sell signals on a number of models. This encouraged aggressive hedge fund selling and
the deep correction prompted momentum and leverage fund activity.

Jhb Dee 15:00 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Manchester: Hi, Are you still holding your USD/JPY short from yesterday?

manchester 14:56 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
this NZD/USD just hitting a brick wall at the moment. cant break this 6980 area either way but still holding my long.

Gen dk 14:55 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 14:54 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:39 GMT, thanks. As Athen's said yesterday, JPY may dance in the same step with USD. So, I may keep my short USD/JPY and EUR/JPY for 1 more day and see how Japanese market dances tomorrow's morning.

hk ab 14:39 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, I think dlr/jpy will be poorly dragged if that happened. Now, the dlr/jpy is not willing to sink at all. So, only correction, imvho.

watch nt's call for the e/j 100-150 correction..... should be a good entry now.

The Netherlands Purk 14:39 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
the long e/j is closed now, the e/u is doing fine for the shorters as well. Maybe Martinesvski is right, all the way back to 128.... The usd/jpy is starting to react, so is the beast....

HK Kevin 14:31 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
A foolish question. Can anyone tell me it's the start of a massive liquidation of GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY or just a correction.

HK Kevin 14:23 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Sold USD/CAD at 1.1755 earlier with 30 pips stop.

hk ab 14:20 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
viies, you are the euro emperor......

Earth curious 14:17 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
SOUTH AFRICA K.P 14:07

Why are you asking shouting the same question again today on this forum? You did not get an answer yesterday because it is an inappropriate place to ask it.

London Misha 14:14 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Arizona - I still reckon up! it may rain for a few days but the sunshine will win out I think!

SOUTH AFRICA K.P 14:07 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
WHAT IS THE FASTEST WAY TO SORT OUT MY TAX ON PROFITS AS SOON AS THE FUNDS HIT MY BANK ACCOUNT.

THANKS

hk ab 14:05 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
mkt is so quiet....

nt, seems the big boyz want to test our patience.

The Netherlands Purk 13:31 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
And yes i am hedging....

The Netherlands Purk 13:23 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
I am in a long now from 15607, and i will close for 20 profit, or 15588 with loss.... lets see if i did my homework right.

AZUSA 4X-ed 13:14 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Anyone dare to call "a flag formation" in the cable uptrend?
gl/gt

The Netherlands Purk 13:10 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Well well, there is 15610 already, so this is a fast day... beast broke through the Dr Q 231.80.
Lets see if we can get 155.88 or that we do 15650....

Denver m23 13:02 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, that usd/cad monthly is interesting. Look at how long it has been since that many up months in row. I think feb. and march could correct a bit.

Makassar Alimin 12:48 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
just noticed usdcad's monthly chart, last month was the first time it closed above the 20 ema since 2003 and since then has stabilised so far above 20 ema, waiting for the golden cross of 13 and 20 for a new trend to emerge JIMVHO

pd cumino 12:41 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Cape Town 12:33 GMT January 4, 2007
IMVHO I think are better log charts for ample moves

Cape Town 12:33 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
auckland peat's chart

NY R19 12:28 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY //// I suppose there are various settings for different charting packages, but my charts always show the highs/lows regardless of time frame. I have ever really used close charts, etc...

Auckland peat 12:28 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
lol got me again replace with I.M.G. no fullstops.

Auckland peat 12:27 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
if ya wanna see that link click on it and when it fails , replace 'censored' with 'censored' in the url and it will work.

Auckland peat 12:20 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
rats... that link doesnt work. imageshack is censored?

Auckland peat 12:17 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
yes JBS that was my thoughts on why R19 might get differing TL's. re-doing that chart myself using http://www.netdania.com/ChartApplet.asp
and getting this result :
Updated version of long term USDJPY TL

would almost imply we have crossed it already with this recovery.

Gen dk 12:09 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY R19 12:09 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY //// thx, I think it is a matter of "how thick is your pencil. Now I changed it to weekly, and it hits the weekly high in DEC '05 perfectly because my TL was actually off (although it did not look that way on the monthly chart)

London JBS 12:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Divergence could be explain by using monthly closes instead of monthly highs.

NY R19 11:59 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY //// Auckland peat, I pulled up my monthly on USDJPY and when I look at my TL from the highs in '98 and '02 it is steeper to the downside so that DEC '05 pierced and it has been traded through in recent months... Comments, TIA - I have seen some tripped out graphics errors in TradeStation - like you zoom in and out and sometimes TL's change angle slightly.

Denver m23 11:56 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Auckland's link. The move in 1995-

Makassar Alimin 11:53 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Denver m23 11:49 GMT January 4, 2007

....therefore never say never and never underestimate the importance of gaining or losing a psychological level, it could be the precursor of many things to come

ldn pw 11:52 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Denver m23 11:49 GMT January 4, 2007
Holy S*** look at that move in 95-97!

please can you explain what move you are talking about..thnx

manchester 11:52 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
okay, long again kiwi 6980. seems to holding at these levels

Denver m23 11:49 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Holy S*** look at that move in 95-97!

Denver m23 11:45 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
I think USD/JPY could go 120+, just not right now. She needs to rest a bit first.

Auckland peat 11:44 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
see this graphic as to why 120 will be massive resistance


Link Text Here

NY R19 11:42 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
JPY /// On that note, it is interesting the way that JPY pairs have traded since the start of '06 as consistent calls from many players in the media for JPY to rally have been run over...

Denver m23 11:35 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Congrats to anyone that has the balls to go long at these levels they deserve the money if it does hit 120+. I just think with it being such a psychological barrier there is going to be alot of profit taking.

san miniato ab 11:33 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Denver m23 11:28 GMT January 4, 2007
agreed with u as well m23

san miniato ab 11:30 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 11:05 GMT January 4, 2007
hi my frd i was long on usd yen at 119,30 since yesterday afternoon hoping that the close above last top at 119,23/28 cud help the greenback to launch another assault to the 119,80/90. This morning we saw another dive for eurusd, followed by another big drop in euryen so basically usd yen didn t rececive any help to break again 119,50. For this reason i agree on second part of ur post, i took a very minimal profit on my pos and tried to go short here at 119,33 and in case of break of 119,20 i will add anything to my pos with sl at 120.10 now and target at 117,80. Appreciate ur comment thks

Denver m23 11:28 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Let's say USD/JPY does hit 120, then what? It's been moving straight up since 115 without the slightest of pit stops. I would take profits here if I were long. Who cares about another 50 pips or so. Too risky to be long IMO.

Mumbai NS 11:17 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Gud lvls now to short usd but with stops as speculative buying of usd can increase if 1.3050 is taken out.

gl gt

Denver m23 11:09 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
I think everyone is expecting the USD to go even higher here. Too many are bullish I think. I'm short USD. I think we will see a near term high today or tomorrow.

ldn pw 11:06 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
anybody long eur/usd ?

Makassar Alimin 11:05 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy looks like ready for another bang, will 120 go this time? somehow i feel a bit uneasy about it going up....perhaps the opposite is waiting

NY R19 11:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EURGBP /// Any thoughts - did not think that the balance of EUR/UK data was that relatively strong for UK...

Melbourne Qindex 11:02 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through [1.9384]*.

Melbourne Qindex 10:56 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : the market can easily go down further to tackle 155.36.

The Netherlands Purk 10:55 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:53 GMT January 4, 2007
EUR/JPY : Trading below 156.62 is not a good sign.


Yes yes it is, for shorters like me it is fabulous... with good stops this is heaven...

Como Perrie 10:55 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
There was talk in early Asia that central banks have been buying the AUD/USD on dips and have absorbed some hefty selling flows from macro-funds responding to the slide in copper and other base metals.

The bids ahead of 0.7900 with stops building below 0.7880 have been killed since.

The 0.7905 level is the 38.2 fibo of the 0.7780 (December
low)/0.7983 move and a break below would suggest that a top is in place at 0.7983.


This is all for the year form here..

bi all

Melbourne Qindex 10:55 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 10:53 GMT - Thank you for your compliment.

The Netherlands Purk 10:53 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
hmmm the e/j is the leader of the pack, beast is doing the 23180 of dr. Q. here. 15650 gone now, range over 100 soon. Have 15621 as next stop. Dr. Q. is making very good calls here indeed, but he is doing for as long as I can remember.

Melbourne Qindex 10:53 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Trading below 156.62 is not a good sign.

Melbourne Qindex 10:50 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 10:45 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

EUR/JPY : The market may test 156.10.

Como Perrie 10:46 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Oh well...still same 45 views per hour and the goddes of the month style here.... so far happy new year

Mumbai NS 10:45 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Qindex gr8 calls Dr. superb as usual .......is e/j bottoming out here sir gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 10:44 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Mr. Martin from the Gold Coast for you. You dont even have the guts to post under your own name, so you have nothing to say.

Melbourne Qindex 10:43 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:40 GMT January 3, 2007
USD/CAD : The market is pulling towards [1.1750]*. Crude Oil is weak and may trade below 60 mark. EUR/CAD is strong and it is heading higher.

Melbourne Qindex 11:53 GMT January 3, 2007
USD/CAD : the market has a potential to trade between 1.1651 - 1.1849.

shanghai bc 10:42 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:38 GMT January 4, 2007

Happy New Year!..All the best in 2007..

Monte Carlo Diesel 10:40 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man, you show signs to become the greatest bull$hit of all times, maybe you will manage to take over Martin Gold Coast. good luck

The Netherlands Purk 10:39 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
liverpool tk 10:24 GMT January 4, 2007

Dont be ashamed, because we where close to 158 to break for more remember. Just see what you have in your pocket, forex gives you opps, but dont forget the b... moneymanagement!

Denver m23 10:38 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Anyone want to make a call on a short term top for USD/CAD?

Cannes Oil man 10:37 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
berlin jesper 10:31 GMT January 4, 2007

Change handle , you can get as many critical level as u want.

Melbourne Qindex 10:37 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD (1.6709) : the market momentum is strong when it is trading above [1.6666]*. A projected resistant level is located at 1.6772.

Cannes Oil man 10:36 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
posted on GVI:
Cannes Oil man 13:54 GMT January 3, 2007
Shorting EY in front of 158.00 , 20 pips sl
----

berlin jesper 10:31 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
oil man, where do you see NZD/USD going from here. what are the critical levels?

Melbourne Qindex 10:30 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Trding below 0.7841 is not a good sign and the market has a potential to tackle 0.7739 - 0.7798.

Cannes Oil man 10:29 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:39 GMT January 2, 2007
We will see your entries , that is a certainty before 75.

During the week , on the jpy fix.
gl gt , off to rest.

----
NZD$ at 7090 when posted , to the virtual player with 20 identities , who claimed being long 6850..But he's short now with one of his identities from 7090 now..Life is simple on this side of the forum , make a new handle.

liverpool tk 10:24 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
netherlands, that was a good call you made from a couple of days ago, real shame i didnt hang on for these levels

The Netherlands Purk 10:19 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Well 15670-15660 gone, now ticking to 15650. Watch out for fast profittaking there.... If not and it is some yen strenght (watch usd/jpy which is not so much effected by eur/usd) we will see 15621 soon... on the other hadn we have seen these scenario before, that is why i said we had some sort of appointment with the 15680ish, it needs retraces to go further. 15380 was the last bounce (15380-15802).
Cheers all

HELLO MARTIN, GOOD TO SEE YOU. WHISHES TO YOU ARE STILL VALID AS WELL....

MANCHESTER 10:05 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
already stopped out for my kiwi long at 7000. damm it!!

Auckland peat 09:54 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
caba made a Ozzie short y'day ....
I noticed coz I was playing it the other way, and quite confidently too heh. Got out at B/E tho.

San Fran pro trader 09:50 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
is anyone know who made a call on AUDUSD short yesterday. saw the post yesterday but it's gone now. thanx for the trade!

Bris rc 09:46 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
AMS MAXXIM 08:23 GMT January 4, 2007
Thanks for the link.

Melbourne Qindex 09:46 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:22 GMT January 3, 2007
GBP/CHF : Heading Towards [2.4026]*

Melbourne Qindex 09:43 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Heading Towards [1.3010]*.

berlin 09:37 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
can anyone suggest support levels for kiwi / dollar?

Gen dk 09:36 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

san miniato ab 09:35 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
seems uk investment house sold this morning 2 yard euro on behalf of China

Melbourne Qindex 09:35 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:39 GMT January 3, 2007
EUR/CHF : Heading towards 1.6183.

lugano fc 09:33 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
only crazy people buy usd....this is just the big fish moove who wants to sell usd at good prices (the start is around these level)

Melbourne Qindex 09:31 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 17:51 GMT January 3, 2007
USD/CHF : Heading towards 1.2432* - 1.2448.

Melbourne Qindex 09:28 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
GBp/USD : the market is going to consolidate between [1.9384]* - [1.9412]* for the time being.

Makassar Alimin 09:21 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:55 GMT January 4, 2007

tentative SHS is forming on daily, when it touches the neckline, some faith of the bulls will be tested and that is the most likely scenario to happen from here...i never believe it is a one-way ticket anyway, so will be happy to play both sides

Syd 09:20 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Trader hearing talk that a large Asian central bank is buying USD's in size against GBP, EUR and CHF. Cable is 1 cent lower on the session at 1.9400, EUR/USD off 60 ticks to 1.3120 while USD/CHF is almost 1 big figure up at 1.2313.

Syd 09:18 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Gold coast Martin 09:13 thank you Martin and same to you GT.

NY R19 09:18 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD /// Citi on the wires calling for GBP rebound off upcoming data - this s/b good...

Melbourne Qindex 09:16 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : 230.46 and 231.05 are the next targeeting points.

Sydney ACC 09:14 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
The market has underestimated the Fed`s resolve to hold the inflation line but equally the reduced ability of the US economy to produce efficiency savings from technology advances. I believe the US cannot sustain the high GDP levels of the past decade without producing higher inflation.
The US economy is or has shrugged of the residential property problems much as did the UK and Australia. Maybe I`m bit premature on that, nevertheless cable and euro look to go lower and if the NFP comes in above 100k watch out then its back to mid November in late January.

Gold coast Martin 09:13 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
HI SYD...without taking too much space, this post sums it up well and is still valid in january,,,,Also keep in mind the post about gold from GVI i posted a few months back...it is also still valid....happy new year to you and all here....
Gold coast Martin 12:07 GMT December 20, 2006
Philadelphia Caba 11:49 GMT December 20, 2006
Caba...the september post on the carry trades has nothing to do with the "turning point" i mentioned on a long post 3 weeks ago about the turning point of the euro/usd. If you read that post you will know what i mean by looking at the pattern on euro/usd for the past 3 weeks....( load and uload scenario until 128 heading into years end) this is still valid. .The september carry trade post was was just a comment on carry trade flow pattern that occured until we get carry trade liquidation heading into years end....if you remember the kiwi trade from 73 to 59 13 months go ,,,same pattern lol....YestErdays post on euro/yen, aud a dn nzd having good R.R from current levels is still valid...g.t ..
Yes AB cad dollar is an indicator....

Makassar Alimin 09:10 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd's weekly and monthly charts are showing there's still plenty of room to the downside if momentum keeps it going down from here without jeopardising the bigger uptrend fwiw

NY R19 09:07 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD /// TUE all the talk was UK raising rates and 2.0000 iminent - now unexpected dovish UK stance and oh no! MPC Blanchflower is speaking later today! ... WHATEVER

Gen dk 09:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

AZUSA 4X-ed 09:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 09:00 GMT January 4, 2007
German PMI 57.6 vs. 56.8
- correction 57.2

manchester 09:01 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
long kiwi at 7000, looks good at these levels

Syd 09:01 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:56 yes noticed a few recommending not to long it up here , also now the real players are back will see genuine momentum

AZUSA 4X-ed 09:00 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
German PMI 57.6 vs. 56.8

hong kong nt 09:00 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY -- let's see the buy dips game at 156.25/50 may work or not this time...

The Netherlands Purk 08:57 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Curious if this 23180 in the beast will hold, as well as the 15660ish in e/j. It is still early and the builders might break it off all the way to the 15644-21 and than build it up again.

Makassar Alimin 08:56 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
there you go, gbpusd is straight, no nonsense drop, trailed stop profit now to 1.9503 rigid for +110 pips, if this 1.94 defense goes then 1.92 will be seen

cheers Qindex...

Sydney ACC 08:56 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:42 GMT January 4, 2007
I'm still not sure about the Kiwi but this looks like a major take profit reversal on the yen crosses.
Angelo from CBA called this to occur today earlier in the week.

hk ab 08:55 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
every pair is looking at gold here.

The Netherlands Purk 08:50 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Forgot: if the high is taken out in e/j 15730 with 20 pips shorters are caught, just a warning...

NY R19 08:46 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Don't mean to tie up the board, but on 1-10, I have rarely been monitoring/posting (0.25-1) whereas participates like Qindex have been posting platinum content forever (9-10). So you guys deserve all of the compliments...

Melbourne Qindex 08:45 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:41 GMT - Happy New Year!

Syd 08:42 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin appreciate your view on this article .

EURUSD – As we have concentrated on here in the last few weeks, 5 waves up can be counted from the November 2005 low at 1.1640, which means downside risk is high. This morning’s weakness is impulsive and a break below 1.3200 would seriously damage the short term bullish structure. Until then, upside potential does remain. Still, 1.3200 looks especially attractive given the gap from 1.3204 to 1.3226 – which is at least partially filled (at approximately 5:40 am). Price action over the next day should clarify the short term picture. Remember, 1.3204 is the bearish pivot. 21 day momentum is in negative territory for the first time since late October (bearish). LINK

The Netherlands Purk 08:42 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Right the e/j made a lower low today, not that it matters anyway. question is if we can hit 15680-15661-15644-15621 and 15602, if not it will be a buy... appointment with 15680 for now still on. High my platty 15730, so on a slow day we might hit 15661 on a fast day 15621.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:41 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:29 GMT January 4, 2007
Good to see your comments on the FF. I hope you had a great and safe Holiday sir. GT

Melbourne Qindex 08:39 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
NY R19 08:35 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

NY R19 08:38 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD /// I would watch out for some price insensitive central bank buying at some point - may not be at these levels, but when "they" move it seems like 25-50 pips means nothing... Comments? TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:38 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 07:16 GMT January 4, 2007
Thank you for your time and effort sir. I am always appreciative and thankful that you share with us some of your wisdom. Hopefully the year of the boar will bring luck to those who seek it. GT

Napoli DC 08:37 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Long € 1.313

NY R19 08:35 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Spot on time and time again, Qindex

Melbourne Qindex 08:29 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:48 GMT January 4, 2007
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier 1.3136 - 1.3142.

Melbourne Qindex 08:28 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:06 GMT January 3, 2007
EUR/CAD : 1.5502 is likely the cycle peak and 1.5464 is a projected resistant level. The market will reverse its movement and head for [1.5194]*. The current expected trading range for a position trader is [1.5194]* - [1.5640]*.

Syd 08:26 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:19 yes still talk of rate hikes

Monica Fan, global head of foreign exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets declared, as trading got underway in earnest at the start of the new year: "Carry remains king."

For most low yielders, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, this means further weakness, and for most high yielders, such as the euro and the New Zealand and Australian dollars, this means more gains.

However, not everyone is completely comfortable with the performance of some of these currencies.

"While we are relaxed about Swiss franc weakness, we are becoming increasingly concerned by the weakness in the yen," said Phil Roberts, a technical strategist with Barclays Capital in London.

In the yen's case, it's not only signs of stretched positioning, but also rising speculation that the Bank of Japan may deliver a surprise rate hike later this month, which would help to reduce the currency's attraction as a way of funding investments in higher yielding assets.

It is the yen's decline against the New Zealand dollar that is of particular concern to some as the Japanese currency heads back to levels that brought a sharp reversal late last year.

"We are mindful of the NZD/JPY collapse at the end of 2005 and note that many of the characteristics experienced at the time are repeating and can also be seen in EUR/JPY," the Barclays Capital analyst said.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:25 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 12:02 GMT December 29, 2006
Thank you for the kind words. I hope everyone had a great and safe holidays. Now it is back to work. Short term view: Eur/usd pair seems to be in a range for now between the 3300 and 3050 area. For now some key supports have been taken out while the indicators unwind from the O/B areas but the main ones are still left (3130-40 and main support 3065-75). The market will be on standby while awaiting for Friday's news to come out. It is still buy on failed dips until the main support is taken out IMHO. Peace and GT

AMS MAXXIM 08:23 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Bris rc 05:16 GMT January 4, 2007

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/Members/display_currency_data.php

Melbourne Qindex 08:22 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:55 GMT January 3, 2007
GBP/USD : The market is pulling towards [1.9412]*.

hk ab 08:22 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
nt, buy e/j here?

Melbourne Qindex 08:21 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:09 GMT January 3, 2007
GBP/JPY : It is heading towards 231.81.

NY R19 08:21 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Market Risk //// Think there is always risk, but there are sharp movements in DEC/JAN. My take on the last couple days is that the same players that instituted the USD sell of at the start of the week were leading the charge in the USD counter rally...

Sydney ACC 08:19 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:15 GMT January 4, 2007
MARKET TALK: JPY May Lose Role As Carry Funding Currency

Japan Players Take Profits On NZD/JPY

If that were the bcase I would have assumed AUD/NZD would have rallied. It was up to 1.1235 area an hour or so ago but has now fallen back to 1.1200.
I still wouldn't short Kiwi still too dangerous.

Syd 08:15 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: JPY May Lose Role As Carry Funding Currency

Japan Players Take Profits On NZD/JPY

NZD/JPY falls as the few Japan short-term players present in markets take profits on expectations pair may not be able to advance much further due to increasing speculation of a BOJ January rate hike, say senior customer dealers at major Japan banks; light volumes magnifying impact of trade. One tips support at 83.70 for now

Syd 08:05 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/ZAR is softer at 6.9829 as dollar rises following the release of better-than-expected US factory activity data and the latest FOMC minutes Wednesday, coupled with a significant drop in gold prices. "All emerging markets got whacked," says a trader, expecting the rand to trade within a range of 6.97 to 7.07 throughout the day.

Sydney ACC 08:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 07:16 GMT January 4, 2007

January is a dangerous month for forex traders..More so when compared to the remaining 11 months of the year..The thing to do is, drink more tea and coffee during most of January and watch the market till the market bias is clear and present..

Mate, if you think the other months of the year are any different then think again!

Denver m23 08:00 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Any thoughts on USD/HKD? Looking a little overextended here.

shanghai bc 07:26 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 07:23 GMT January 4, 2007

Happy New Year!..All the best in 2007..

hk ab 07:23 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
bc, happy new year. Thanks for all the advices.

shanghai bc 07:16 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   

January is a dangerous month for forex traders..More so when compared to the remaining 11 months of the year..The thing to do is, drink more tea and coffee during most of January and watch the market till the market bias is clear and present..

san miniato ab 06:57 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
good day, yesterday went long usd yen (after having been stopped on my long eur usd pos at 1,3185) at 119,30. The fact this pair closed above 119,23/28 last top is encouraging for a new test at 2006 top at 119,83. Seems exporters have selling int still at 119,50/60 but from USA we received a better than expected balance from all news yesterday. ADP survey must be confirmed tomorrow from NFP before to judge a bad situation in labour market, for the rest both ISM and Fed minutes are better than expectations and Dollar cud strenghten a little bit more specially agst Yen. Now i have tp at 119,80 and sl at 118,90, appreciate ur comments tia and gl

Syd 06:55 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
UK PRESS: Two More Retailers Go Into AdministrationLINK

Syd 06:26 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 06:23 Hans Redeker not the best of analyst

AZUSA 4X-ed 06:23 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Hans Redeker of PNB Paribas reports - large $ long positions ahead of ISM NMI and NFP are viewed as rather "heroic". 1st half of 2007 expected as a $ down period.

Suggests not trading into today's EZ news as the market is in a corrective mood until tomorrow's NFP data. Expects cable at 2 by Feb.

Bris rc 05:16 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 13:39 GMT January 3, 2007
re:GBPUSD - most interesting comments.
On what criteria or calculation did you determine 1.9480/90 support ? TIA

Syd 05:16 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/KRW extends gains to 932.00, vs 926.10 last close, as offshore players step up buys after Korea finance ministry's economic policy blueprint for 2007; "buying interest from some foreign banks has strengthened, possibly on the ministry's plan" to ease regulations to encourage overseas portfolio investments, part of continued aim of stemming USD outflow from local FX market, says local bank trader; tips 929-934 range rest of session.
Korean consumer sentiment in December grows more pessimistic about economic prospects in coming 6 months, with index at 93.7 after pickup in November to 95.2 from October's 93.9; sub-100 reading means majority of respondents pessimistic. Sentiment unlikely to improve any time soon, with consumers losing faith in President Roh's administration, no stand-out candidate for presidential election in December, sliding JPY/KRW hurting exporter competitiveness vs Japanese products in global market.

hk ab 03:58 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
nt, top call on e/j.

Syd 03:55 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Dow Jones technical analysis indicates EUR/USD negative-biased on daily chart with MACD bearish, stochastic staging negative crossover to signal sell. Immediate support 1.3125 (uptrend line from Dec. 18 low of 1.3051, followed by 1.3088 (Dec. 26 reaction low), then 1.3051; resistance at 1.3297 (Tuesday high). Pair may target 1.3031 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of 1.2484-1.3369 advance) in coming days

hong kong nt 03:51 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Euro displays higher highs and higher lows and 4-hour MA/pattern studies hint 1.314 is good R/R buy..fwiw..

malaysia 03:50 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Good day to all traders,

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Makassar Alimin 03:18 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
what do you guys say about usdjpy hitting 121.xx this month and then 126 further out? early indication from monthly chart says so with the breaking of that big triangle...

AZUSA 4X-ed 02:56 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
$ strength today related to IMF news of CBs increasing their Q4 allocation? Could someone post the WSJ article?

KL KL 02:34 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
ok short HSI 20398 sl 20427...lets see

Keeping Audusd short

Syd 02:29 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Weak Aussie Data To Ease Hike Fears -CommSec
Australia's services industries went backward for 2nd straight month in December with PSI at 49.5 (below 50 level which indicates sector's contracting), just at slightly slower rate than November, CommSec's Craig James says. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, retail spending restrained in December, with CashCard index down 0.1%, auto sales down 7.7%. Notes markets pricing of rate hike this year likely to move lower and possibly suggest cuts in coming months if weakness in economic data continues.

NY RP 02:01 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Quick peek at USD/JPY for those who are trading it and look for patterns. 10 min and 30 min head and shoulder formation targeting 118.80 area. Gotta love the troops trying to keep Gold down but its hard when she is all fired up and ready to launch much higher. GL

NY AWI 01:22 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Any thoughts on cable reaching 2.00 near term?

Zurich 01:14 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Thanks Dr for the analysis. Execellent work.

Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:49 GMT January 2, 2007
EUR/JPY : The odds are in favour of maintaining a long position if the market can trade above 157.68. On the other hand when the market is rejected from the projected resistant level of 157.42 - 157.68, speculative selling pressure will increase.

hk ab 01:04 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
e/j well supported at nt's 100 pips retracment recommendation, can go long 157.

Melbourne Qindex 01:03 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 00:54 GMT - The odds are in favour of taking a long position for EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF.

Makassar Alimin 01:01 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
morning guys, finally usdcad hit limit 1.1730, completely out of usdcad now with some nice pips
as for gbpusd, nice little narrow consolidation in the making now, hopefully followed with continuation down to 1.92 or even 1.90 as suggested by Qindex, stay with the winning formula, stop is still the same 1.9573 rigid
i think some trying to catch a falling knife yesterday will get injured today...

Zurich 00:54 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Thanks a lot for the analysis. So a long on both the positions will be a favourable trade as at these levels 100 more pips is there for the upside. There does not seem a reason for chf to show any strength. Pls so comment. Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 00:48 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier 1.3136 - 1.3142.

Philadelphia Caba 00:43 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
ab, also 8hr chart look 'overshooted'; prefering downside now 6900-6850, imo.

Syd 00:42 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
South Korea's president said Wednesday the government will come up with stern measures this year to deal with the strengthening of the local currency, according to a speech published on the presidential office Web site.

The government has to come up with a long-term strategy to prevent foreign exchange rates from turning less favorable to local exporters, President Roh Moo-Hyun said.

He said the measures shouldn't burden local economic performance or hurt the country's trustworthiness, without elaborating.

Roh was speaking to some 240 prominent people from the government and the political worldat the presidential palace, the presidential office said on its Web site (www.president.go.kr).

Roh's comments come as the Japanese yen fell to another more-than-nine-year low against the Korean currency. At 0600 GMT Wednesday, the yen was quoted at KRW7.7955, its weakest level since KRW7.7144 on Oct. 27, 1997.

In 2006, the dollar-won exchange rate dropped 8.8%.

Local foreign exchange market traders said Roh's comments late Wednesday will likely support the dollar versus the won.

Syd 00:40 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 00:20 GMT watching a report from analysts today CNBC , if the Yen strength due to change of policy it could move 10% in 24hrs there are that many carry trades out there many Kiwi/Yen and the deficit will then come into play 9% GDP , something to ponder .

hk ab 00:29 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
caba//currently reading the nz charts as well.
4 hrs looks tiring. but pair refuse to go........accumulation?

Philadelphia Caba 00:20 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD: Retreats From Highs After US Inv Bk Buying Slows
..the current environment shouldn"t be NZD supportive and analysts are a bit confused as to why the NZD is much stronger this morning on all of the crosses. The fall in commodity prices and the rise in the VIX index usually weigh on the NZD, but dips have been well supported by the
investment bank buying...

syd, ACC, GC Martin....anyone..comments, pls? tia.

Melbourne Qindex 00:18 GMT January 4, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 22:17 GMT January 3, 2007
Melbourne Qindex,

What happens to gbp/chf after 2.4026, is that the key reversal point or do we have more upside on that, same question for eur/chf after 1.6183. Thanks Dr

========================


EUR/CHF : It will tackle the next target at [1.6238]*

GBP/CHF : The market is likely to consolidate between 2.4027 - 2.4088 before moving ahead towards 2.42 or retracing back to 2.38.

 




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