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Forex Forum Archive for 01/07/2007

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Melbourne Qindex 22:57 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position as long as the market is trading below 92.75. My monthly cycle projected series indicates that the market is working on the lower barrier at 91.42 // 92.45. A barrier is located at 92.21. If the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 90.39*, AUD/JPY has a good potential to head for [88.65]*.

Syd 22:44 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
The Australian government is expected to demand the consortium bidding to privatize national carrier Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN.AU) guarantees to keep jobs and maintenance facilities in Australia in order to gain approval for its A$11.11 billion bid, reports The Australian newspaper Monday.

Cannes Oil man 22:30 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Victor :
So putting my chips were my mouth is , so to speak ;)
Gl , see you.

Cannes Oil man 22:29 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Prague viktor 22:02 GMT January 7, 2007

it is definitely worth the risk to long E$ here..

If the lows aren't popped again , chances are HIGH that $/Y starts paying the bills(115.60 during the week) , making E$ bounce back up..
Last time e$ was saved right around this area , similar pattern could happen again..(This holds true for all the rest too).
I am myself long from friday's low (see gvi) , albeit not in E$ , but gbp , nzd, ozi.

gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 22:13 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is going to vibrate around 154.28 with an expected magnitude of 153.89 - 154.67 for the time being.

Prague viktor 22:02 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Hi Oil man !

what u think about the EUR/USD isnt in a good levelto long it??

ABHA FXS 21:44 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
The dollar rallied after a government report showed the U.S. economy added more than expected jobs in December. The non-farm payrolls rose from 132k to 167k last month, beating the forecast of 113k. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.5%. The average hourly earnings increased 0.5%, well above the estimate of 0.3%. Recall the ADP job report released last Tuesday indicated a surprising 40K decline of jobs in private sector, making the market downwardly adjust the forecast for Friday's job report from the Labor Department. The unexpectedly strong job report ensured investors the labor market is still tight and reduced the expectations for a Fed rate cut anytime soon. The euro dropped from around 1.3085 and kept testing the key psychological level at 1.30. The sterling was down more than 100 points to 1.93......!

Bratislava Endy 20:28 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba
just now I received your email from Jan 7, 2007 2:56 PM.
Funny, I guess there had to be some hole in a cable on the way between MSN and Gmail..
Just replied..

The Netherlands Purk 20:20 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
My question for the week is, what will eur/usd do when e/j continue its drop down, and what will usd/jpy follow? Will be interesting to see if pairs can move on their own.... because i wonder if the eur/usd move is really an usd strength move or that it follows the e/j and beasty boy.

Cannes Oil man 20:19 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:07 GMT January 7, 2007

Another guy hidding behind his handle , thinking he's anonymous , anonymous != internet.
But in anycase, at the end of the day , what matters is who gets the profits , not the "anonymous" posters.

Mtl JP 20:07 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Montreal MK2 19:42 / why do you want to know about where one gets their weed from (presumptously I add), rather than about one's trading tactic reasoning ? Seems like your expectations for the kind of info you are seeking are somewhat mis-placed...

Amsterdam Bulldog & Daughters 20:05 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Montreal MK2 19:42 GMT January 7, 2007

Cannes Oil man's suppliers

it's about the supply you asked about, his forex calls may become true even without weed.

Montreal MK2 19:42 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 18:52 GMT January 7, 2007
$/CAD has high chances to touch 1.1466 this week , and continue lower.
Trading the loon requires a good dose of lunacy..
1.1730-1.18 is a good short area..Something i ve said for a few days , hasn't happened yet, but patience as usual is key.

Cannes Oil man 18:31 GMT January 7, 2007
Good evening,

Market just opened here, even though $ has a chance this week, market doesn't go in a straight line.

Further more, $/Y going to 115.60 over the week will probably not help other $ crosses.

where do yo get your weed from???

The Netherlands Purk 19:41 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 16:45 GMT January 7, 2007

I am looking for a retrace to 161, than i will short with tight s-l

Cannes Oil man 18:52 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
$/CAD has high chances to touch 1.1466 this week , and continue lower.
Trading the loon requires a good dose of lunacy..
1.1730-1.18 is a good short area..Something i ve said for a few days , hasn't happened yet, but patience as usual is key.

Cannes Oil man 18:31 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Good evening,

Market just opened here, even though $ has a chance this week, market doesn't go in a straight line.

Further more, $/Y going to 115.60 over the week will probably not help other $ crosses.


Athens MK 18:22 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Back from four days of the flu and I hated missing the action on Thursday and Friday... :)

Looking at the market on GBP/$:

I see two scenarios from the current drop -

retracement from 1.9298
Target 1: 1.9430 -45
Target 2: 1.9514 A favorite of mine
target 3: 1.9560

There is a 17% chance of 1.9194 breaking and if so a 95+% of 1.9094-70 being touched as target 1 with 1.8970-90 as target 2.

Usually if the retracement does not occur within 2 days then expect the 1.9194 level to be broken.

This is an analysis of what I see... GLGT

Philadelphia Caba 18:01 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Endy, you got it, if not, ask Jay for my email.

Bratislava Endy 17:54 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
I never got it, could you try again pls.

Philadelphia Caba 17:52 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Endy, responded this morning.

Bratislava Endy 17:40 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba

Radek, send me an email, I want to ask you something.
You will find my email at that czech site.. you know..

Philadelphia Caba 17:13 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 11:29 GMT January 5, 2007
usd/cad short - updated t/p at 1.1680

hong kong nt 16:59 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Some pivotal chart support/resistance for sharing. GBP/USD 1.9180, EUR/USD 1.291, USD/CHF 1.246, AUD/USD .771, USD/CAD 1.183, EUR/JPY 152.85, GBP/JPY 226.3, DX 84.9. GOLD 584/7..SILVER 11.5..fwiw..

hk ab 16:56 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 12:28 GMT January 7, 2007

Zeus, I think nt's view has always been consistently technical.
new price move and changes in charts pattern and signals should be respected, apart from c9's indicators.

purky, the yen will have fuel added after Zhou's comment over the weekend.....

Philadelphia Caba 16:45 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 16:35

Purky, what levels are you looking in eur/chf, pls? I played short side last week, closed at 1.6080. tia!

The Netherlands Purk 16:35 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Good day.
Tomorrow still looking for 15380 to break in e/j. Last time we saw 15380 as said before we visited 15802. It is possible that we trade 15280 tomorrow btw if the profittaking or whatever we want to name it continues. Also looking for position in eur/chf...

hong kong nt 16:29 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 12:28 GMT January 7, 2007

My point is simply trying to buy at bottom of wave 4 (1.9170/90) with stop loss set below top of wave 1 (1.9140) with target 2.01+ in coming weeks, reward/risk ratio is 10 assume you use 100-pip stop...

AZUSA 4X-ed 12:28 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:09 GMT January 6, 2007 ||| you are truly one of the few people in here that I hold in high regard! You have given us in the past, honest, unbiased opinions and invaluable technical pointers. However, this last post has taken me back a bit! Are these near term executions or are you looking a few months down the road?

manchester 12:08 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
thanks guys for the opinions. this pair seems notoriously to trade in one direction at a time without substatial retracements so i see this going down towards 6650-6700 when the dollar hurrah finally subsides. However, expecting it to come back to the recent highs after that.

Where do you see this opening tomorrow, i have small longs at 6855 hoping to pick up a few pips before it retreats again.

yes im a man utd fan, top of the league to things looking great. do u follow the english league?

Sydney ACC 10:42 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
SydoJoe 09:40 GMT January 7, 2007
I beg to differ on the increase to NZ interest rates, RBNZ will not move rates later this month.
The unwinding in carry trades didn't start until Thursday when Japan returned. Earlier in the week ie Tuesday and Thursday dollar plumbed the lows eg cable drpped to 1.9730, AUD to 0.7980 and NZD 0.7090 then Thursday things turned around.
Gives Manchester two differing opinions.

SydoJoe 09:40 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
kiwi should find some support from M&A trades in the pipeline , also if the BOJ was not to raise rates later this month (currently a 75 delta) then the carry trades will be piled on vith vigour.. nzd will see 7050-7150 in no time at all.. dont forget the rbnz may raise rates at the end of this month. so the nzd/yen differentials could remain the same with a BOJ Hike... agree there could be another session or two of unwinds in high yielders but i dont think its going too much further.. japan is out on monday and they had quite a few holidays lastweek.. they will sill look to buy foreign ccy on their return later this week IMHO.

Sydney ACC 07:14 GMT January 7, 2007 Reply   
Let me give you my view, a view only and not a prediction.
I believe most would agree NZD/USD has been driven by the carry trade, interest differentials of 5-7% have been most attractive to Japanese investors.
Its safe to say the carry trade commenced in May when USD/JPY bottomed out at around 110.50. Kiwi bottomed out in late June at about 0.5930, at that time the outlook for NZ interest rates turned around.
For six months we have seen NZD/USD and NZD/JPY move in one direction with only one serious reversal prior to last week which occurred in early October. So we had six months of Kiwi strength prior to the recent weakness.
Last week Kiwi dropped two big figures, it still hasn't fallen to levels where it was in November.
OK thts the history now lets look into the crystal ball.
I think it has two more big figures to go, we've had six months of appreciation and three days of downmove. The smart guys are getting out now of their NZD/JPY crosses. SYD posted last week that Deresdner was forecasting JPY yen rates of 2% within eighteen months, if so goodnight carry trade.
So I see Kiwi down to 0.6650 by February, AUD/NZD 1.1600 and USD overall remaining strong against the euro and sterling but depriciating against JPY.
Its only one view I hope you get some others.
Will I trade off the back of my view? Probably not.
By the way my son ants to know whether you are a United supporter.


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