Forex Forum Archive for 01/08/2007

Cannes Oil man 23:53 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
I actually CLOSED the $/CAD too.

Cannes Oil man 23:53 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Nice moves across the board..
Added a few positions and thinned a few..(see gvi):

+118.79 $/Y.(short)
+EURGBP 6719.(Long)
GL GT.
Cannes Oil man 16:12 GMT January 8, 2007
Currently (look gvi):
Short 1.2405 $CHF.
Long GBP$ 1.9265
Long NZD .6853+60
Long AUD$ 7788
Short $/CAD 1.1770
The stops are placed to entries on some , rest is small stops for good R/R.
gl

singapore gfx 23:40 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
thanks dr q

Melbourne Qindex 23:28 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Singapore gfx 23:26 GMT - I will post them later today.

Singapore gfx 23:26 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
melbourne qindex,

dr q, could you give us your analysis on gbp/jpy, e/j and eur/usd pls. thanks

Melbourne Qindex 23:22 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : the market is still under pressure when it is trading below [1.9409]* - [1.9412]*.

Melbourne Qindex 23:14 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 17:53 GMT January 3, 2007
EUR/GBP : the current expected trading range is 0.6695 - 0.6785.

Syd 23:12 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Poor Aussie Outlook Could Spur Rate Cut-D&B
More than one-third of businesses expect profits to fall in 1Q as rising fuel and interest rates and worsening drought cloud Australia's economic outlook, Dun & Bradstreet survey finds. Almost one-third of survey respondents report being affected by drought estimated to be worst in 100 years. D&B economic consultant Duncan Ironmonger says profit outlook worst in history of survey, exceeding gloom of 1991 recession. If conditions don't improve, next RBA move could be interest rate cut, perhaps as early as May, he says

LKWD JJ 23:06 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
is it a given that boj will raise next week? censored kathy lien thinks so.

Melbourne Qindex 23:03 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to consolidate further around [1.9337]* with an expected magnitude of 1.9255 - 1.9418 before testing the supporting strength of 1.9173 or retracing back to 1.9500.

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:08 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
well it just got hit so I'm short GBPCHF at 2.3964 sorry for this insignificant info - however if someone would like to comment the techs - Iwill appreciate

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:03 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 17:18 GMT
hi, I like your GBPCHF signal - just looked on 1 and 2 hour charts it is in a slightly sloping channel with a top at around 2.3975 which actually for me is a better SL indicator
I have slow stochs (14-8-4) that about to cross from the 80% and MACD is also favoring a reversal - this same pattern I traded today with GBPNZD and it made a very good reversal
I placed a limit order at 2.3964 - however I will look at the upper trend line for a SL..
anyway tnx for sharing your signals - GL & GT!

Syd 21:58 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:24 GMT many thanks

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:24 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd 19:53 GMT
this guy from Black Swan has a very clear speech and I like very much the pieces you post - tnx!
also this one on JPY is very informative - I really couldn't imagine that those rallies in AUD and NZD pre 31.Dec were flows of people who will park them for the holidays but these reports really explain things that otherwise I wouldn't figure - now it makes sense to me the drop in AUD & NZD
the thing is that small fish like me don't know the thinking of those who move these hot money flows - but when I think of the charges on GBPJPY shorts I had before - well I imagine they made a good return even for a week - anyway tnx!

pd cumino 21:01 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:04 GMT January 8, 2007
There is some true. Only, in other times it was a reduction of speculative positions, now is the unwinding of carries.
Carries are difficult to estimate, but to be prudent, aren't less than USD 400 bl.
The word unwinding should be used with more sense, expecially by professionals.
Since I strongly doubt those are stupid, and since we live in a media world, you can get some hints....

Syd 20:50 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Bratislava sorry I dont.

Bratislava 20:44 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd
Lorraine do you know what's going on with TT ?
Thanks.

Prague viktor 20:43 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:29 GMT January 7, 2007
many thanks oil man G/L G/T

KL KL 20:29 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
ok in short gbpusd 1.9380 sl 90

AZUSA 4X-ed 20:19 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Is it really a plateau in the housing market?

RIC fxq 20:10 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 20:04

you can always tell a Harvard man, you just can't tell him much!

:)

Dublin Flip 20:04 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Yeah the BOJ/MOF must be petrified at the risk these FX moves pose to the Japanese economy.
$jpy is down a whopping 30 pips since the 2006 sunsetted -LOL

Syd 20:04 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Analysts list a number of reasons for the recent unwinding of carry positions - the clearest of which is the possibility of a rate hike next week at the Bank of Japan's January 17-18 meeting. Although recent data has not necessarily supported the case for a hike, local press reports and official commentary have increased the market's perception of the likelihood of a hike. Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi reiterated Monday week his stance that it is the central bank's decision to raise rates. Omi, who is in Washington meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, also said however that the Bank of Japan should work to support the Japanese economy in its monetary policy decisions. In addition, growing opinion that the U.S. is experiencing a soft landing rather than a more drastic economic decline may also contribute to the market's reassessment of the BOJ's next move given Japan's reliance on exports. Secondly, there is concern that Japanese institutional investors may reduce their demand for foreign assets in an environment of a weakened yen. "In the recent period, Japanese investors appear to have preferred European assets to the large bond maturities and coupon payments in the euro-zone," also encouraging yen strength on the crosses," Marc Chandler, global head of foreign exchange at Brown Brothers Harriman said. In addition, many speculators had taken advantage of cheap financing provided by low rates in Japan to park funds over the holiday period in higher-yielding units - positions which are now being unwound. "It is as if that froth is being reduced now," the Chandler said. Finally, the recent drop in commodity prices has made commodity currencies less attractive, and has in turn fueled recent carry trade unwinding.

Cannes Oil man 19:55 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Aye , excessive strength on $/Y for the last 3 days...It went from 119.30 to 118.60 ..Closing prices.

Syd 19:53 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
A warning from Dr Doom Marc Faber In the next few months we could get a severe correction in Asset markets. ...

http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/5b85b2dc9ec2ab9/bsccc010807.pdf

NYC 19:48 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Par. Omi also said specific interest rates should be left to the BOJ

PAR 19:46 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Japan' s Omi already talking down yen by saying BOJ should aim to support economy by policy. Japan more than China is manipulating its currency.

Gen dk 19:20 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Geneva DS 18:15 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
PAR
.... and to counter the excessive strength of the JPY over the last 3 days...

PAR 17:55 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Expect some BOJ intervention to defend 118.00 on USDJPY to help the japanese car manufacturers during the Detroit autoshow.

ABHA FXS 17:18 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Trade Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3949
Stop is 2.4007
Target is 2.3800
Risk is 68 pips
Reward is 139 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 2.0 : 1
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : poor

The Netherlands Purk 17:17 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Yes interesting, because i think this is all just rangeexpansion, late moves after no move all day. We shall know that in two hours, than we will know if the highs of the day are taken out a few times in e/u and cable. e/j moves on its own, but u/j is a follower of the moves in e/u. I already closed a few u/j moving the last stop to b/e. Pattern of last Friday in u/j resumes. Let us see if tomorrow morning the pair trades just below the 118... I dont know what loonie will do, but it seems that it does not want a correction, than it might get dangerous for those who have nice profits from longs taken earlier.

Cannes Oil man 17:17 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 17:11 GMT January 8, 2007

Was a better buy at 1.926-1.93 (which i've posted on this side since friday).
But yes here is a good buy , albeit your stops have to be larger.
gl gt

NY R19 17:13 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Kohn //// before said inflation is slowing, risk to upside.

HK Kevin 17:11 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 17:07 GMT, see 1.9350/60 a good buy for Cable now.

Cannes Oil man 17:07 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
c you at 1.96 £$.

HK Kevin 17:06 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Interesting, short small USD/JPY at 118.48 earlier.

manchester 17:01 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
R19, what has this speaker previously said about inflation risk etc?

NY R19 16:51 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Interesting movement - Fed's Kohn to speak at 1745 GMT

hong kong seek 16:16 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
many ths Oil man

Cannes Oil man 16:12 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Currently (look gvi):
Short 1.2405 $CHF.
Long GBP$ 1.9265
Long NZD .6853+60
Long AUD$ 7788
Short $/CAD 1.1770
The stops are placed to entries on some , rest is small stops for good R/R.
gl

Cannes Oil man 16:08 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Caba , from GVI:
Cannes Oil man 14:48 GMT January 8, 2007
shorted $/CAD 1.1770.

Philadelphia Caba 16:07 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 15:56
Oily, view on cad, pls? thanks.

NY R19 16:05 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Just odd given the shutdown of 10 business district blocks of Austin, TX after dozens of birds where found dead.

Cannes Oil man 15:59 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
NY R19 15:52 GMT January 8, 2007

Heard it was someone eatting too much beans.

Cannes Oil man 15:56 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
$/Y will hit 115.66 during the week.
It is the main reason why E$ isn't breaking atm , with 118.9-119.50 being a gift in the eyes of japanese exporters.
Particularly with a hike coming in a few days in japan.

NY R19 15:52 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Hard to believe that the smell is a natural gas leak based on hearing Mayor Bloomberg's statements because it is NJ and Manhattan.

Makassar Alimin 15:39 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
can anybody else confirm this that if usdjpy can hold above 118.50 level for few more sessions then 120++ is the next target? losing 118 can be quite important on the other hand too for quite a good size downside target

HK Kevin 15:36 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Closed my long Cable at 1.9354. Will watch for NY close to decide next buy level. Keep a short EUR/JPY at 154.30 and see how price develops.

ABHA FXS 15:31 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Trade Buy EUR/USD at 1.3014
Stop is 1.2970
Target is 1.3184
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 170 pips

Gen dk 15:29 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Athens MK 15:27 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 15:16 GMT January 8, 2007

Good question... It all depends on your timeframe that you trade in. I would recommend that any dips below 1.93 is a good place to start longing with 1.9260 as a trendline support and 1.9195 area as a MAJOR support. If we are to retrace to the second target: 1.9514 that should occur in the next day or two.

Today there was two chances to break the low and cable bounced quite strongly so will see if 1.9260 can hold. When cable comes back down again and if it makes a higher low then I would most likely look at the targets to be touched that are in my previous post.

HK Billy 15:24 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   


Global Markets Face `Severe Correction,' Faber Says

Madrid mm 15:23 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
for cross lovers

AUD/CAD +O.67% today, high of the day as i write

HK Kevin 15:23 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
If Cable can't break 1.9372 in the next bar of the 15-min chart, I will exit my long Cable position

Mtl JP 15:22 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
imminent event:

15:30GMT - Bank of Canada Winter Business Outlook Survey

HK Kevin 15:16 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Just look a the 15-min chart of Cable, 1.9372 is the 250ma.

ldn jas 15:16 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 15:04 GMT January 8, 2007
Athens - I am out of my gbp/usd trade now as was only a small day trade as I have to go out for a few hours but what kind of level would be good to long again for your targets ?....thanks

ldn jas 15:14 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 15:04 GMT January 8, 2007
Thanks Purk - and thanks for your little hint about Mondays - will watch that in future.........

ABHA FXS 15:13 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Trade Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5510
Stop is 1.5561
Target is 1.5300
Risk is 51 pips
Reward is 200 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.0 : 1
Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair
FXS&

HK Kevin 15:10 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Long Cable stop profit order move to 1.9341

NY R19 15:10 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
oops! Hit paste accidentally...

NY R19 15:09 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
NEW YORK (AP) -- Authorities were investigating the source of a mysterious gas-like odor Monday that stretched across a large part of Manhattan, including Rockefeller Center.

The Fire Department began getting calls about the odor around 9 a.m. Monday, said spokesman Tim Hinchey. No source had been identified.

There also were unconfirmed reports of a similar smell across the river in New Jersey.

Utility officials with Consolidated Edison had no immediate comment.

Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

ldn jas 15:09 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:45 GMT January 8, 2007
Well Played Kevin - I am out at my 19360 and feeling happy....thanks

NY & NJ Brocolli & brown beans 15:05 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 15:02 GMT January 8, 2007
Pervasive gas odor in New York and Jersey


it's broccoli's side affects, nothing serious I hope

The Netherlands Purk 15:04 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Well JAS, satisfied now? It did what you was thinking..

Athens MK 15:04 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 14:53 GMT January 8, 2007

Here are my targets from this morning...

Target 1: 1.9430 -45
Target 2: 1.9514 A favorite of mine
target 3: 1.9560

AZUSA 4X-ed 15:02 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Pervasive gas odor in New York and Jersey...

The Netherlands Purk 14:55 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Well BOB you have talent for words i see. Nope i trade daily now as you speak, and i tend to eatch to days high and low, 2,3,4 and weekly. It does wonders for the account and keeps losses to a minimum....

Chatham Compass 14:54 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR-USD

Medium term trend: +4 (Moderately Bullish)
Short term momentum: -9 (Very Bearish)
Short term strategies: Reduce longs; stand aside

1.3265 Upside Exhaustion
1.3176 Upside Trigger
1.3047 Second Daily Resistance
1.3046 Downside Trigger
1.3027 First Daily Resistance
1.3026 Daily High
1.3006 Current Level
1.2985 First Daily Support
1.2984 Daily Low
1.2963 Second Daily Support
1.2957 Downside Exhaustion

Trend followers: We would use rallies towards 1.3026 to reduce core long positions. Otherwise, we would stand aside. A convincing break above 1.3176 would be required for us to change short term direction.

Short term traders: We would consider shorting rallies towards 1.3027, with stops above 1.3047. We would lighten existing shorts on the day below Exhaustion below 1.2957.

ldn jas 14:53 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:45 GMT January 8, 2007
Yes Kevin - so far the 19260 area has held and hopefully gbp/usd will start to creep up but my anxiety is I cannot see where it wants to go at the moment - not clear. This small bounce up is encouraging but ...........

St. Annaland Bob 14:50 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
oops Purky, had the feeling you mean trades to expire the last week of the current month ... but you actually talk about the trades with rubber around the head, then your 20pips dream has a chance but then it will spike and the huge slide will follow ... anyway, no smokes here ... you know that Dutch series called ""air brushing & swallowing"", she also trades with rubber around her secret head ... bye, happy trades

AZUSA 4X-ed 14:49 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
The pit guys calling for winter weather!? Proof the market ran out of creative ideas or that winter season will be extended to full term based on special requests!

HK Kevin 14:45 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 14:38 GMT, my trading plan for early this week (before Wed) is small buy on Cable/EUR.
I was buying this Asian morning when Cable made a new low but no follow through on the downside. It pop up above 1.9300 then retraced back to 1.9270, at there I entered the trade.

The Netherlands Purk 14:43 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
What did you smoke Bob, dont have a clue what you are thinking there. I had the feeling that usd/jpy did not have the power to take out Firdays high at 11903, and i am taking the 11880 as a reference now, my platforms high. I only work with tight s/l it makes me smile.... Steve Harley & the Cockney Rebel.

St. Annaland Bob 14:39 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
purky, s/l above 11940 is safer should read sell USDJPY @ 11865/75/85/95/11905/15 ... did you read that US deficit is due to grow in additional $2 trillion thanks to the war in Iraq? ... JPY is like Borat's sister telling his brother ""you will never get this"" ... you have to take it as you will never get it, Borat's brother did it, since then the sister never gets too close to the cage ... happy trades

ldn jas 14:38 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:20 GMT January 8, 2007
Thanks Kevin - I was only looking for 19360 area but market seems udecided today with a slight preference for the short side. Hopefully your target will happen but am not so sure on this roght now........

Philadelphia Caba 14:36 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
EURO-YEN: After posting a new life high at Y158.05 last week, euro-yen broke below Friday's lows around Y153.92 to a 4 week low near Y153.66. "Historically, euro-yen finds it hard to rally in Q1 - since 1980, there is only a 25% chance of a rally this quarter," note technical analysts at Barclays Capital. They see scope for further cross slippage and are
keeping an eye on larger trendline support at Y152.50. If Y152.50 gives way, "then a return to Y147, possibly Y143, would be on the cards in Q1," the analysts say. (mni)

The Netherlands Purk 14:28 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 14:21 GMT January 8, 2007

Well Jas, if i knew that i would tell ya imm. but i dont. I try to recognize patterns and i trade them. Right now i see that eur/usd comes back up, and cable as well. It is time to short usd/jpy with s/l at 11880.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:28 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
cable fix is at 16:00 GMT, anyone confirm?

Philadelphia Caba 14:24 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad
still holdin my shorts from last week, short entry slightly above 1.1800 still valid, mental stop at daily close above 1.1835-40.

ldn jas 14:21 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 14:15 GMT January 8, 2007
ldn jas 14:09 GMT January 8, 2007

Hmmmmm- thanks for that advice - will watch that in future. Unfortunately too late for today. If the Friday action continues Monday then what happens Tues and Weds ?

HK Kevin 14:20 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, have a good dream.
ldn jas 14:09 GMT, chance is high in my eyes that Cable could see 1.94 before NY close and 1.96 this Wed. Only concern is whether my s/l is safe or not.

The Netherlands Purk 14:15 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 14:09 GMT January 8, 2007

Well Jas, I learned not to go against the direction from any Friday.. so i did some shorting in eur/usd instead for a few... and it worked out, so patterns continues...

hk ab 14:13 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, this dlr/jpy looks like joking.....

sleep now, very tired these days.

ldn jas 14:09 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Purks. Not boding very well in my gbp/usd long here.....

HK Kevin 14:06 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, long some Cablea t 1.9279 this Asian morning, stop at be, t/p 1.9380. Hope it's save

The Netherlands Purk 14:03 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Well Jas, it did not take out the high convincingly, so i guess we are heading for 15380 again... 15440+ spoils that...

ldn jas 13:59 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 13:55 GMT January 8, 2007
where do you see levels for eur/jpy today purks ?

The Netherlands Purk 13:55 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Smetimes Ab, the Asian Markets plays the pips, Let us see if us session will take all the pips that have been made in Asia.

hk ab 13:42 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
mkt is so quiet.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:14 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm 13:09 GMT
tnx mm - u r adding interesting things as always

Madrid mm 13:09 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
fwiw

currencytradermag jan o7

hk ab 12:43 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 11:35 GMT January 8, 2007

Maybe they are too hungry for small fishes.....

munich hans 12:37 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
caba what is meaning clearer

Belgrade Bobby 12:37 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD showing first signs of weakness on weekly level.
Resistances set at : 1.3095 , 1.3135/40
Supports set at : 1.2965/70 , 1.2730/35
Did the pair made it's long term top , as Von Gecko :) was contemplating earlier?? Well, dunno...so far it is perfectly nested within the boundaries of wide channel 1.2730 - 1.3465/00 . Even with possibility of drop to 1.2450, EURUSD can still maintain the Bullish outlook...
Let's not jump in front of the speeding train, yet :) ...I would like to see Monthly close bellow at least 1.2920, with already some levels like 1.2775 tested, to be ready for some conclusions...
When the bloody pair starts having nice retracements after sharp drops, just to fail on ever lower resistances, we'll be able to claim the Top...You all know the drill...
Ciao

OTTAWA mjw 12:25 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
cannesoilman if you were long gbp/$ any ideas were good support would be... thks

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:24 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 11:39 GMT

hello, do you see reversal on the hourly chart GBPNZD
I have slos stochs 14-9-4 and they are crossing down from the 80%

hong kong nt 12:03 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
AB -- exited all HSI at 20000/20500, will try long again at 20 ma, if seen, for a bounce...

Global-View Research 11:59 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read:
Economics Weekly: Global growth to slow in 2007 but remain robust, Weekly economic data preview: Could the Bank of England hike rates this week?(Lloys Bank)

Philadelphia Caba 11:35 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
JP Morgan has just issued a buy recommendation for EUR/JPY. The bank says buy between 154.15-153.80, risking 153.60 for upside targets of 155.30 and 156.00. The bank says even if it's stopped out of this trade it will rebuy once another basing sign is seen. The cross currently trades at 154.40 from the day's low of 153.65.

Traders report a large US bank buying the cross on the latest
move back up to Y154.35, a UK clearer also seen buying dollar-yen. (mni)

Dallas The Paw 11:30 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
NY R19 11:25 GMT January 8, 2007
JPY //// Any news out of the region? Many pairs lifting...

Haven't seen any news/statements. nzd/jpy is leading the way higher on this spike....

ZP Nemo 11:29 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
2007.01.08 13:26:56 Chinese Police Destroy Camp, Kill 18 Terrorists -Official

Gen dk 11:29 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY R19 11:25 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
JPY //// Any news out of the region? Many pairs lifting...

Cannes Oil man 11:25 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Stops to entry on the cable , and look for new high's (1.96-1.97) , worth the "risk".

Auckland trotter 10:43 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
If the EUR/USD stays below around 1.3016, then I am look for the price to break 1.2995 and below.

Tomorrow, I see the price coming back up.

We shall see.

The Netherlands Purk 10:27 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
I see interesting things now in u/j. 11903 or 11802 to break. For me break is to close under at the end of ny...

Auckland trotter 10:15 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:31 GMT January 8, 2007
I see the EUR in the hands of the German fundamentals due out over the next few days and Trichet’s speech on Thursday.

Glgt

Auckland trotter 09:38 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:31 GMT January 8, 2007
The next hour or so will tell once the UK market settles down.

Gen dk 09:34 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 09:31 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Well Trotter, it will be interesting to see if that happens and what the e/j and u/j will do. I have the feeling that e/chf is holding euro up...

Auckland trotter 09:26 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
I have the EUR/USD down from around the 1.3016 level on the 5min 5day chart, and watching what happens around the 1.2995 / 1.2990 level. Possible more down pressure to the 50% fib on the 1day 6month chart around 1.2934, which is above the SMA (100) on this chart.

Syd 09:22 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
The rand and the Turkish lira are most at risk from a rise in risk aversion, says BNP Paribas. Notes the large current account deficits in the two countries make them those currencies more vulnerable to global risk conditions. "In addition," the bank adds, "they have attracted significant inflows from foreign investors in recent years which are liable to unwind rapidly if risk aversion increases."

Syd 09:08 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: EUR At Risk From German Politics Too?
The EUR could be just as much at risk from German politics as it is from French politicians talking it down. As Angela Merkel embarks on essential health reforms to the German economy, her multiple coalition partners show little sign of agreeing and her government could well fall apart, warns BNP Paribas. "This risk has not been discussed and adequately valued in currency markets," the bank says. "While it is not our main scenario seeing Germany heading towards early elections we suggest watching the scene carefully. It is clear to us that the EUR would lose if the German government falls apart," the bank adds.

Syd 09:07 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Yen- Is Carry Trade Liquidation Here?
Yen was the biggest gainer against the dollar for the week, rising nearly 50 basis points while all other currencies crumbled. It was even more impressive on the crosses gaining more that 200 points against the Kiwi and the Aussie. The theme of the week was carry trade liquidation as speculation built that BoJ would raise rates at its January 18th central bank meeting. Some analysts even speculated that the move would involve a 50 rather than a 25 basis point hike. The country itself was on holiday for most of the week, so the economic data was virtually non existent as trade flows keyed off official commentary rather than fundamental news.
Whether carry trade liquidation has started in earnest remains to be seen as next week the market will begin to see the first trickle of economic data. Most important in our view will be Eco-Watchers survey. This man in the street poll takes most sensitive reading of latest consumer sentiment and ever since it dipped below the 50 boom/bust level the yen has suffered as much anticipated recovery of the Japanese consumer failed to materialize, forcing the BOJ to remain sidelined. Therefore, if Friday’s Eco Watchers survey could surprise to the upside printing above the 50 for the first time in 3 months then it would provide the fundamental support for the long awaited unwind of the carry trade. - BS

Athens MK 08:51 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$ note: For trendline followers 1.9260 is a small support area today since Oct. 16 2006 a trendline has formed was tested on Nov. 17 and was tested this morning and as of now has held.... If that breaks there will be some stops that are taken out quickly and 1.9195 area becomes the critical support area.

It will be interesting to observe whether price action can stay above the 1.9260 support line by close of US markets today....

St. Annaland Bob 08:50 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
JPY -- buy JPY on the rumor of rates going to %0.5 next week, then we will see ... happy trades

KL KL 08:45 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
ok in short gbpusd 1.9338 sl 48...lets see...ninja on attack today

tokyo ginko 08:43 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
any traders up for drinks in tokyo? buzz me. cheers and have a profitable 2007!

St. Annaland Bob 08:40 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   

""COMMODITIES:-Friday’s positive NFP figure triggered important selling from US fund and North American mining. So we dropped 20 Usd on Gold, finding any serious support at 605 when far east physical demand emerged. 600$ is the next key support and if this breaks we will quickly see 580$, however we will try to go long in front of this support.""

St. Annaland Bob 08:39 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   

gold will print $1K before $0.5K ... buying here GOLD and rest of commodities family

AZUSA 4X-ed 08:28 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, glad to know we share the same opinion about the person behind the ‘nt’ handle! However, your message was a bit ambiguous as I am not sure if you were addressing me or Zeus.

On a different note… could someone confirm if indeed we have a bearish divergence on the kiwi weekly charts? tia

The Netherlands Purk 08:26 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Watch the eur/chf as well people, if 16069 is not printed again, we will go down!

khi ad 08:23 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY has shown negative signs, short USDJPY @ 118.34

KL KL 08:11 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Anyone caught the spike low in Gold to 595....amazing collect !!

Sofia mik 08:10 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Morning forum!
Have a nice & successful week all!
gl/gt

van Gecko 08:09 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 05:17 GMT January 6.. don't know if we have seen a long term Euro top made last week.. but after last week's failure from secondary highs, Euro & GBP is painting classic Monthly Reversal patterns from the December 1.3364 & 1.9846 highs..
There's good historical odds for mid to long term corrections after monthly rejections from Euro 1.30 & GBP 1.92 +/- bands..
Monthly Reverse Fractals

"09:01 GMT December 1, 2006
.. how much more fuel is left in the euro tank on this run will depend on her majesty's performance up here against the 25 year resistances and it may be of interest to note euro, GBP & their lead Crosses all started their 2 previous Thanksgiving runs from much lower historical levels & resistances then the current run.. that said, quacking ducks do get lucky once in a while as FxWorksInWackyWays.."


hk ab 01:04 GMT January 6.. risk adjusted forward BS for your perusal;
"02:16 GMT December 15, 2006
//cant' get cheap gold under 625.....//
be patient ab.. gold is in its seasonal snooze mode..
once the year-end/Q1 volatility picks up below 615, you may have lots of wonderful sub 600 opportunities to "pig-out" on the yellow metal to ring in the Year of the Pig..;)"

below 600 weeklies, the 560-535 bands may be fair targets for a new year Gold-Dollar correction..

Athens MK 07:48 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
INCHEON Spyros 07:45 GMT January 8, 2007

:) LOL

I'll pass that one to my car friends...... :)

The Netherlands Purk 07:45 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Well market answered my question, thank you market. e/j down. u/j followed, so for me it is yen strength. Shall act accordingly.

INCHEON Spyros 07:45 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 07:40 GMT January 8, 2007
I am hearing the Kia Motor company are now making cars exclusively for Greece....they are going to to be called MALA-KIA...LOL...

Athens MK 07:40 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 18:22 GMT January 7, 2007
Back from four days of the flu and I hated missing the action on Thursday and Friday... :)

Looking at the market on GBP/$:

I see two scenarios from the current drop -

retracement from 1.9298
Target 1: 1.9430 -45
Target 2: 1.9514 A favorite of mine
target 3: 1.9560

There is a 17% chance of 1.9194 breaking and if so a 95+% of 1.9094-70 being touched as target 1 with 1.8970-90 as target 2.

Usually if the retracement does not occur within 2 days then expect the 1.9194 level to be broken.

This is an analysis of what I see... GLGT

Athens MK 07:37 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
For the GBP/$ to level off and start to rise to at least 1.9514 we need to see 1.9195 level hold. This is an important support area and system traders are using it as such.

hk ab 07:23 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
bad news and euro jumps... never see such things like that....dark forces behind?

e/j 153.80 looks stornger than u/j 118....

Syd 07:04 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
German Nov Retail Sales Real Adj -0.3% On Month


German Nov Retail Sales Real -0.5% On Year


German Nov Retail Sales Forecast At +1.1% On Month

Tokyo Jon 06:53 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
HK AB, it has been a long time, It is good to see Qindex is back with us. I have been around, just busy organising a new company in Aust.

hk ab 06:48 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Jon, long time no see.

Melbourne Qindex 06:31 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 06:26 GMT : GBP/USD : It is consolidating between 1.9255 - [1.9337}* for the time being. It is going to test the supporting strength of 1.9192* in the New York session.

Tokyo Jon 06:26 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, what are your levels for the GBPUSD. TIA

Melbourne Qindex 06:02 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 05:53 GMT - It is possible, only 30 pips away.

Toronto MRC 05:57 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:40 GMT January 8, 2007
China Govt Orders Some Bks To Control Lending In 07-Source

If that became a trend could slow asian growth prospect.

NY MMM 05:55 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
hi guys any view for gbp/usd today?

hk ab 05:53 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
qindex, do you see some good chance for the 117.95 broken today?

Syd 05:40 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
China Govt Orders Some Bks To Control Lending In 07-Source

Melbourne Qindex 05:09 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : the market is going to vibrate around 118.35 with an expected magnitude of 117.95 - 118.75 for the time being.

bangkok sid 03:47 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 03:40 GMT January 8, 2007
thanks a lot

hk ab 03:45 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Zorro, will you add your Asian equity long here?

Sydney ACC 03:40 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
bangkok sid 03:37 GMT January 8, 2007
My bank in Sydney calims 0.7805 highest dealt today.

bangkok sid 03:37 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
could someone pls confirm what was the high of todays aud/usd
i see on a fx chart above .79 ??

Mumbai Jay 03:32 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Hi Zorro....What'l be BIG trades for 2007 ? Have a great 2007..GL & GT

Syd 02:49 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Strong U.S. payrolls data from Friday risks carry trade liquidation, putting high-yielding commodity currencies under pressure and providing JPY demand, says BNP Paribas; still, too soon to call for broad-based market de-leveraging - "so far we look only for tactical short-term trades benefiting from carry trade liquidation." Says watch equity markets closely as stock weakness suggests AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY in particular will come under pressure; as trading strategy, says sell AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, buy AUD/CAD, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP.

Syd 02:44 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
'07 Below-Par Year For Aussie Housing - HIA

Syd 02:42 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Morgan Stanley issues gloomy 2007 strategy note for China stocks, warns valuations have reached bubble stage, could deflate; keeps MSCI China index target at 43.6 points or 16% below present level; H shares excluding oils, telecoms at 22.2X 2007 earnings or 50% premium to S&P500, says there have only been 3 brief periods in last 20 years where China stocks at premium to Wall Street. "I cannot work out the current market valuation in terms of the fundamentals - and I have not found anyone who can help me with this," says strategist Jerry Lou. Suggests selling into any rallies, going underweight in financials, materials, property stocks, overweight on telecoms, consumer staples, consumer technology, consumer services; neutral on oil stocks, overweight on airlines to hedge oil price risk

to catt 02:17 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Israeli officials are denying a report in a British newspaper that they are planning to attack Iranian uranium enrichment facilities with low-yield nuclear weapons.

Quoting "several Israeli military sources," the Sunday Times said that two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up a plant at Natanz using low-yield nuclear "bunker-busters.

Auckland peat 01:48 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
AUD/NZD completed its three wave corrective move down from 1.24 at 1.1150 too, so large upside is quite possible.

Sydney ACC 01:35 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 01:14 GMT January 8, 2007
That NZD has weakened more than any other currency is an indication of the Uridashi and JPY related flows that has sustained the Kiwi over the last six months. relatively speaking these flows mean more to Kiwi strength than any other currency. GBP has been sustained by mergers and acquisition business, although it is difficult to judge what proportion of the inflow in to the UK for the purchase of businesses has actually been converted versus borrowed.

The liquidation of the crosses has further to run, I do not believe a large percentage of six months flow can be lquidated in three days. There are those who are sitting on significant profits ie those who shorted yen in June at around 69.00 who might still be laid back, however, may become more concerned if the cross falls to 75.00.

It is well worth watching Kiwi, however, the risks either way do not warrant the returns at present. My view appreciate your comment. Best of luck with yours.

Syd 01:31 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Israel Ministry Rejects UK Report It Plans Iran
A U.K. newspaper reported Sunday that Israel has drafted plans to strike as many as three targets in Iran with low-yield nuclear weapons, aiming to halt Tehran's uranium enrichment program.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry denied the report.

full report in Political Forum

Syd 01:27 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Building Approvals Lackluster - ANZ
Australia building approvals' strength in November (+4.1% on-month) could be a false dawn, with data elsewhere showing new approvals activity considerably below underlying housing demand, says ANZ economist Paul Braddick, noting sharp drop in rental vacancies; says 3 rate hikes in 2006 continue to overhang developer sentiment though adds tightening supply conditions likely to pave way for building sector rebound in 2H07

Cannes Oil man 01:14 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:09 GMT January 8, 2007

GBP/NZD has moved up 600+ pips since 7080 NZD$ high's..
So NZD$ has tanked majorly against pretty much all.
However , looks ready for a new hop.(as in preferably SELL gbp/NZD 2.8150/2.8230 area than buy)...Same applies to EUR/NZD.

hk ab 01:14 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
oilman, very clear and sharp view on eur....

Melbourne Qindex 01:11 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market is expected to trade between 1.2966 - 1.3012 for the time being.

Sydney ACC 01:09 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 00:32 GMT January 8, 2007
The AUD/NZD cross is a good indicator of relative Kiwi strength.
Since the cross liquidations commenced this has moved up from 1.1160. Today when Kiwi moved up against USD the cross dropped about 30 pips as AUD remained stationary. Since then Aussie has made up that ground and now is 20 pips higher on the day. Aussie is looking well supported at 0.7790.

Cannes Oil man 01:02 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
If $/Y goes sub 118 , then what i posted below should happen (Help e$ in it's struggle for upside).

Took some GBP (see gvi) , nzd's , and jumping to rest..(This levels kept me awake , as i believe good chance for bounce from here).

Melbourne Qindex 00:59 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : When the market can penetrate through 117.98, it will head for 117.55.

Melbourne Qindex 00:58 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : My monthly cycle charts indicate that the market is heading towards the extreme level of 227.47.

hk ab 00:56 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
qindex, how about dlr/jpy?

Melbourne Qindex 00:55 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:16 GMT January 5, 2007
GBP/USD : Heading Towards 1.9195

Melbourne Qindex 00:55 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:36 GMT January 5, 2007
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards 228.17.

Cannes Oil man 00:53 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP$ 1.9265 looks like a good long level with 40 SL's.
That said ZZ's.

Cannes Oil man 00:50 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Boj is sleeping , and tokyo is supposily closed.
Looks like the move is going on , will get pretty ugly under 1.2960 on e$ , and 153.50 EY.
If going long around this levels, tight stop is pretty much a requirement.
Off to sleep.

hk ab 00:46 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy has lots more room for downside. The exporters will not sit with their hands when they see their 120 dream vanishes.

hk ab 00:39 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
boj protecting 154?

Philadelphia Caba 00:32 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
Watch Uridashi Demand For NZD/JPY - UBS
World Bank uridashi bond issue on Tuesday in amount of NZ$411 million - one of largest in recent weeks - should be closely watched as gauge of current carry sentiment, says UBS; NZD/JPY will be under pressure before BOJ meeting next week "but strong demand for New Zealand dollar uridashis would indicate continued preference for the yen as a funding vehicle," bank adds.

Melbourne Qindex 00:16 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : A barrier is located at 153.88.

Melbourne Qindex 00:14 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : the market is pulling towards [153.49]*.

Melbourne Qindex 00:10 GMT January 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 228.55.