Forex Forum Archive for 01/09/2007

Gen dk 23:58 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:26 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Another Shot In The Dark By Thailand's Govt
For the Thai military and the government it installed, the easiest bit may have been the coup itself. Running a government is no simple task but the military-backed administration seems to be doing itself no favors. Perhaps it was emboldened by the fact markets hardly blinked at the coup itself, but for whatever reason there have been a series of missteps of late which will likely eat away at foreign investor confidence. The ink is barely dry on the capital controls issue and now cabinet has approved a draft amendment to the Foreign Business Act that'll force major foreign investors in telecoms and other sectors deemed vital to national security to sell down shareholdings and give up voting rights in excess of 50%; while these changes don't cover a large number of sectors they add to uncertainty - and uncertainty is bad for foreign investors. Sure, there have long been loopholes which have let foreigners skirt around ownership laws, but why rush to change this now? As the military/government knows - or should know - timing is everything. Foreigners may decide getting involved in Thailand is just too hard, given the government seems somewhat at sea on economic management and liable to make abrupt policy changes. As Brown Brothers Harriman's Marc Chandler says, "it is yet another step in the deterioration of the political and investment climate."

warsaw TOMi 22:15 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
catt, seems like 1.18 might be a good one for going short, with tight stop,what u reckon if u there.
possibly everyone spots that..

manchester 22:13 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
looking for it to break 6938 if its to push further on

HK_MACAU 21:58 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone predict the hi/lo for KIWI in the asian session. Thankss

Mtl JP 21:22 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:58 / GM's chief economist may ultimately see the $40 price, but I am not sure of the stated reasoning. The headies I read say OPEC cut off 1.2m production barrels per day, and non-Opecs such as Norway, Britain and Mexico are cutting back output as well. Not counting Iran's threats (or promise, depending on side of fence u sit on) Or maybe he is just lustfuly looking at Toyota's giant gas sucking big-block moster truck just introduced screaming what fuel shortage.

btw.. the link offers some amuzing reading of the Chinese's marketing material translation into English (ex.: “It can ignite under low temperature and anoxia.” = starts in cold weather and high altitude)

shanghai beyond_destiny 21:12 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
buy Euro 1.3/1.292 T/P 1.345, S/L below 1.288

May see the yr high of Euro btw Feb-Apr..

Syd 20:58 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
DETROIT (Reuters) - Oil prices are set to decline sharply in 2007, dropping as low as $40 per barrel because of increasing production and a slowing U.S economy, the chief economist of General Motors Corp
LINK

manchester 20:53 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
RP, agree with you about oil. below 55 will not hold and the only way is up, keep longer stop losses in place

manchester 20:50 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
purk, good advice to take some pips. new shorts at 11966 with s/l above 12000

NY RP 20:48 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Just an observation. Equities at highs, Gold clobbered down to support area, commodities clobered, CRB down to support levels, Dollar over bought and it at resistance levels, oil deeply oversold along with mnay others. Interpret this any which way you like. I tend to be in the camp of a washout before a sustained move. Time will tell. tick, tock, tick, tock. GL all.

The Netherlands Purk 19:56 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
If am not mistaken usd/jpy and e/j will creep back to the highs, to make new highs tomorrow. So lets see if we can get 11987 tomorrow....

wellington am 19:53 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
gbp/cad has given another opportunity to short after failing at 2.3. Short at market. Adding 2.29+. Stops above 2.33 for position trade.

warsaw TOMi 19:45 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 18:47 GMT January 9, 2007

sory 4 interrupting the very bed time, but i was just wondering where the acual makassar lays..? could you tell?

manchester 19:28 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
i need to reoup losses i made on NZD/USD. leaving the office now so see what happens when i get home

Zurich 19:27 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Manchester,

At the end of the day, IT is your call

The Netherlands Purk 19:26 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Ok Edwin, i am only saying it so that you live longer and we can have more fun. Its your fingers on the trigger...

manchester 19:23 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
i got another short at 11938 so might take the advice. ive been killed for being greedy in the past

The Netherlands Purk 19:18 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Well EDWIN, dot you have more possies? Take a few, and bring the rest back to b/e than you have free ride for the rest.

manchester 19:17 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
well if i take the 20 pips i can just see it will just shoot down like a rocket

Zurich 19:13 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk,

Yes, 20 pips is something to cherish. manchester purk just gave execellent advice.

The Netherlands Purk 19:11 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
It is Hillegom Martha, HILLEGOM...
Gee Edwin you dont cherish 20 pips? Well than just let us see what happens....

Hillgrom Martha 19:04 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
manchester 18:55 GMT January 9, 2007
Purk "cherishes" his 20 pips at the local Amsterdam supermarket.

manchester 18:55 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
purk, i cant cherish 20 pips. are you expecting this to come back up?

The Netherlands Purk 18:52 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
manchester 17:41 GMT January 9, 2007

EDWIN, thinbk you are glad that you stck to your guns, you chose a very good spot to short the usd/jpy. Now you can do two things. You close and cherish the profit, or face the facts.... whatever they are...

Makassar Alimin 18:47 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
hopefully cable can close around this level or better if under 1.94 for fresh attack on the recent low tomorrow, off to bed, see you guys

Stockholm za 18:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   

All the best to every one on this forum for 2007...
It is said to be a zero sum power play.
So I do hope you all continue participating.
Just don’t get wedge between the Supply & the Demand.
…Happy trading…….=>

Cannes Oil man 17:57 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Closed $ Longs, and kept GBPCHF short.

USA BAY 17:47 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
SORRY GBP?CHF

LKWD JJ 17:47 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
119.26 area is r2 $y. 19355 pivot on cable, mkt hit r1 with high @19455(my stop!! ouch) but has since fallen.

USA BAY 17:46 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes oilman,

Do you expect gbp/jpy to drop to 2.3919 today/tom, meaning the trend is down . thanks

AZUSA 4X-ed 17:46 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 17:37 GMT January 9, 2007 ||| I would think those "jokers" are out of the deck for now! so, the dealers may have to call other wild cards on these crosses.

Cannes Oil man 17:44 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Don't see it drop.

manchester 17:41 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
oil man, where can you see $/jpy dropping to?

Cannes Oil man 17:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Actually Ideally , we go back in Yen unwinding from here, with the same scenario as thursday//friday.
With Most everything seeming to go down on the board LoL.

Makassar Alimin 17:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
agree with oilman, ideally gbpusd should drop to 1.9350 first and see where it goes from there, i will be a happy man if that happens as will collect 80 pips from short established earlier at 1.9431 (stop brought to BE now)

Cannes Oil man 17:33 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:07 GMT January 9, 2007

2.4108 Range Top , Range bottom 2.3919.

Makassar Alimin 17:30 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
brought stop loss to entry on loonie posted earlier, shouldnt see that price again from here or else completely wrong with the short term direction and therefore stop loss should do its job there

Zurich 17:30 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

Lahore made an accurate prediction, but I opted to short usd/cad and paid a price for it.

LKWD JJ 17:26 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
i hope our friend lahore fm (and others that followed his postings)is enjoying chf @+124 and cad +117 as he said a while back

Makassar Alimin 17:24 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:14 GMT January 9, 2007

marc faber did warn us :)

AZUSA 4X-ed 17:24 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR 16:43 GMT January 9, 2007 ||| Citibank seems to agree with you. Any thought on the reason for such a massive closure aside from the "price cap" justification?

LKWD JJ 17:14 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 17:06 GMT January 9, 2007
sth wrong with DOWJ?
=================
oil sometimes hurts dow as some dow components drop with oil prices. just one angle.

manchester 17:09 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
quick move to 11938 USD/JPY. luckily stayed with my short 11941

USA BAY 17:07 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Hi anyone care to comment on gbp/chf please. thank you

hk ab 17:06 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
sth wrong with DOWJ?

Cannes Oil man 17:05 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Perhaps , though the pivotal 1.9346 has to be tested before.

Athens MK 17:00 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:56 GMT January 9, 2007

Agree but I am expecting a nice 70 pip upswing very soon ;)

Madrid mm 16:56 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR 16:30 GMT January 9, 2007

I take it PAR that you take into consideration the interest rate differential in the USA and JAPAN and the PIPs to come to this conclusion !!! 8-)

Cannes Oil man 16:56 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 16:53 GMT January 9, 2007

When something drops 500 pips , makes a 100 pips move upside..Then struggles , it is not a good sign.
We should see test of the lows from here (1.9300).
we will see.

Athens MK 16:53 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:16 GMT January 9, 2007

Still did not see much of a pullback today on cable to reflect dollar strength on cable at least..... As long as 1.9350 holds then we are still looking bullish on the short-term. 1.9380 still a good support as well.

Madrid mm 16:50 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
and maybe Venuezela 8-)

PAR 16:43 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Japanese capital outflows will increase dramatically this year.Worse place to invest money will be Japan .

Makassar Alimin 16:41 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
shorting usdjpy is risky at the moment, better wait for confirmed sell signal first rather than picking tops, i would suggest buy on any dips until 118.50 taken again and SAR under 118

Cannes Oil man 16:39 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
The Euro is struggling to hold 1.30..Not a good sign for further strength.
Meanwhile $/Y is popping new high's.
Ranges are pretty tight , on E$ , hopefully it breaks.

manchester 16:38 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
purk, yes i know. ive suffered many times. we were around 11940 for some time before it pushed on so not calling any top just yet.

The Netherlands Purk 16:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:32 GMT January 9, 2007

So you hedge now, because if eur/usd goes down, usd/jpy will go up....

Philadelphia Caba 16:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Oily, a bit confusing... but nevermind ... just watching anyway..gt/gl!

The Netherlands Purk 16:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
manchester 16:31 GMT January 9, 2007

Yes but you know that just when you want to get better possies it goes down like a rocket...
I am waiting for signs to reverse, but they are not there. We touched 11950 for the second time, we have to see 11968 and maybe 11987 for a 50 pip rocketteer...

Cannes Oil man 16:32 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Caba :Definitely.
From GVI:
Cannes Oil man 12:06 GMT January 9, 2007
Got out of my short $ position , and starting longing it..(vs ozi, gbp.)..Shorted $/Y , and EY.
---

Stopped on $/Y too.

manchester 16:31 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
purk, well i'd rather get in at higher levels and watch it ride down, dont want to get stopped out above 11975. van der sar is my hero!!

PAR 16:30 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Nobody dares to sell USDJPY since it costs you approximately 600 pips a year . So your ok till 114 by year end. Not bad .

AZUSA 4X-ed 16:27 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
May be safe to short cable in anticipation of trade balance surprise?

Philadelphia Caba 16:27 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:07 GMT January 9, 2007
No positions have changed, look GVI.


Oily, now you're saying that you reversed??
Sorry, maybe I got it wrong..

Cannes Oil man 16:27 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
So , even though i'd like to have the GBP and E$ , run up to new high's , if it's not happening, better turn around.

Cannes Oil man 16:16 GMT January 9, 2007
The Netherlands Purk 16:06 GMT January 9, 2007

The Netherlands Purk 16:26 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
manchester 16:14 GMT January 9, 2007

Just follow your plan Edwin van der Sar, and you will be fine. It seems that we are at the end of the range, but i am not sure about the eur/usd. And it seems that usd/jpy only follows eur/usd now.

saloniko nk 16:22 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Good Evening...

hk ab 15:38 GMT January 9, 2007


May be they are @!@ing where to sell $/cad...




nk

PAR 16:20 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Some hedge funds selling EUR because they need $ to pay their margin calls. Lol.

Cannes Oil man 16:16 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 16:06 GMT January 9, 2007

Yes I reversed my positions early this morning, look on GVI , or even here, as i've replied to someone i did.
I bend to what the market seems to be doing , and right now , it is , longing $.

The Netherlands Purk 16:15 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Ah, you still there? Frogs dont like salty water... but they like VODKA. Watch the usd/jpy fly...

manchester 16:14 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
purk, im short 11941 USD/JPY. do you suggest closing out and letting it ride up a bit further before shorting. i dont want to miss out on this trade as I do see this going back down to 11870 minimum

moscow mi 16:12 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 16:09 GMT. Weather is great here, in Limassol on Cyprus. Did not see any swiming frogs yet.

GT

The Netherlands Purk 16:09 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Oops, VODKAMAN is back. Hello Mi, wiped the rain of your face?

moscow mi 16:07 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
NT - please check your mail box, thanks.

& Happy New Year every one

The Netherlands Purk 16:06 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Did you change your view Oily, yesterday you where calling cable 196, or you just try to tell us where the reversal is?

Cannes Oil man 16:04 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
To see a break..
Same for e$ , needs to get below 1.2980.

Cannes Oil man 16:01 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
This gbp$ needs to run down below 1.9370.

PAR 15:49 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Buy more USDJPY on break of 119.50. Kampo and BOJ aiming for 125.00 this year .

The Netherlands Purk 15:38 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Dont think the usd/jpy will retreat. This seems to be a copy of a few weeks back. And it seems that it will not pass certain levels, BUT that is because the ranges are tight. So market will need a few day to go back to 11870 again.
So we might see new highs, be prepared to see them... usd/jpy follows eur/usd like a puppet, so if 128 is in the cards, we will see more than the 120....
Just a warning...
for now 11968 is next and than 11987... downside there is 11916-11878-11873.

hk ab 15:38 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
why it's so quiet in the forum today..... all ducks died?

coventry 15:19 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP surely its going to be the usual bounce back up from 6690-6700

nicosia y d 15:11 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Dollar and yen continue to retreat against European majors today in the market after last week's sharp rally.
Germany trade surplus and current account surplus both widened more than expected in November.
what do you think about the trend?

Madrid mm 15:08 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
it looks to me that they are Fighting Tooth and Nail on both sides

san miniato ab 15:04 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
good day, anybody cud explain pls last zar's fall? tia

manchester 15:01 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
short USD/YEN 11941, s/l 11980 and shouldnt go anywhere near there

hk ab 14:57 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
long very very small euro @1.3

lugano fc 14:47 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
to Melbourne Qindex

hi doc, 231.81 touched on gbpjpy...any view if this could be a top or still room?

do you also follow eurgbp? your view there?

thanks a lot for any suggestion

Madrid mm 14:47 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
just another tool 8-)

Madrid mm 14:46 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, on this site -
http://equivalentsrdc.cme.com:443/index.html?

they show us the size of the bids and offers .

This is CME product, so make your own decision, but it could help

warsaw TOMi 14:44 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
well,yes square ftm cable 21,eur 13, swissy 07..

hk ab 14:39 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
seek//better chance in Feb-Mar
The higher this pair propel up, the more fierece it will return for sure.
Just wonder how this boat be so overloaded (May be 'cos I am added on)....

CT Cris 14:39 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
usd.jpy still in buy mood.

CT Cris 14:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
cable..use sell and sell another strategy.if rise

hk ab 14:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
seek, the US opens and gold respond first.

hong kong seek 14:36 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
AB--still believe usdjpy may reach 115 or lower end of Jan

CT Cris 14:36 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Montréal Taro 14:33 GMT January 9, 2007
CT Cris 14:30 GMT
What about cable ? TIA
---------
rising few pips then decline.

hong kong seek 14:34 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
in short usdjpy at 11942 ...

CT Cris 14:34 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Manchester
still in up..take care.

Montréal Taro 14:33 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 14:30 GMT
What about cable ? TIA

manchester 14:33 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY up or down???

hong kong seek 14:32 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
in short YEN at 11942

hk ab 14:31 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
gold is...... hope it can bring me the $30 ride though I have lower my stop.

for fx, interesting to see how tight euro is now.
the dlr/jpy makes everyone in Jap happy... exporters + tourist.

CT Cris 14:30 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:09 GMT January 9, 2007
we can buy usd.jpy now for 15-20 pips
======
still in up..dont short.

Gen dk 14:29 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Philadelphia Caba 14:28 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
it seems like interest rate differential story is back!

hk ab 14:24 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
say good bye to euro again?

Makassar Alimin 14:23 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
split two portions for entry, first short 1.1790 for loonie, the other one if 1.18 seen, probably 1.1820 area

The Netherlands Purk 14:14 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Well, the usd/jpy beast and e/j are on a point of no return or a plunge. 11940 in sight. Feelindicator says that we will see 11968 soon...., i will wait for another short in these regions...

hk ab 14:12 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
e/j starts another journey soon.

AZUSA 4X-ed 14:06 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Huge volume on crude trades 'drilling deeper' for another session!

hk ab 14:01 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
mkt very quiet, waiting for??.........

hk ab 13:51 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
seek, my $30 ride is coming....

Haifa ac 13:19 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:17 GMT January 9//Yup
Surely looks like some severe fund punishment is going on.

Syd 13:17 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Crude oil future prices dive as fund selling gathers momentum, a trader notes. "It's a bit frightening the way it's moving...anyone who is short is just running with it," a trader says. Adds that any funds that were long over the New Year must be in a bit of trouble and says: "Anyone who's bullish is better off keeping their hands in their pockets." ICE February Brent -170c at $53.90/bbl, Nymex Feb WTI -184c at $54.25/bbl.

Como Perrie 13:11 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Today Cad newspapers interesting. About int. rates there fwiw

warsaw TOMi 13:09 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
ok,lovely, am long €/$ at 3015 and cable 9412.

will keep stops tight.

Cannes Oil man 13:07 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
No positions have changed, look GVI.

FW CS 13:06 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:35 GMT January 9, 2007
WHich is precisely why the $ has decent upside potential

warsaw TOMi 13:05 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, are you holding short usd/chf since ystdy?

am short now from 1.2399,any views now?,tkx

Cannes Oil man 13:01 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Gold doesn't look good..
Though if no positions at the moment , might be better to wait break of 601.
I would not buy it here myself , but short it on strength , until 630 gets taken.
Same for the rest, have to fold to what the market does , too costy doing otherwise , and right now , does look like $ will make an upside move.

manchester 12:57 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, thanks. still looking for the 11940-45 levels to short

Melbourne Qindex 12:52 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : ... 118.84 // 118.98 - [119.13] - 119.28 // 119.42 ...

hong kong seek 12:51 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 12:43 GMT January 9, 2007
may i kindkly know your view on gold ?many ths ..

Dallas The Paw 12:45 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
The commodity curr's are setting up for a plunge here, curious whether it supports the yen or not

Makassar Alimin 12:43 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
bugger, usdcad stop at BE was hit, reload short somewhere in 1.18 level if seen

Cannes Oil man 12:43 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Have to see how $ responds this time to EY going sub 155.

Cannes Oil man 12:42 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Today looks like a $ day.

warsaw TOMi 12:42 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
ok, square €ur/$ 1.3010.

Dallas The Paw 12:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
oil recently broke $55..gold is giving back it's gains. This should be a fun day!

Makassar Alimin 12:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
as mentioned in a few prior posts before, usdjpy if manages to stay above 118.50 for a few sessions then it is ready to tackle 120++ level, now it has a pretty good chance to do it, confirmation once 119.70 can be overcome this time and need a daily close above 120 line to see further momentum in that direction, on the other hand losing 118 this time will be devastating for usdjpy bulls

hk ab 12:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Nobody believes this usd strength.... best run the stops....

CT Cris 12:23 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Manchester..just buy another if decline.

manchester 12:13 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
cris, sounds a risky trade

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:09 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
from what I can see all the action is right now selling CHF to buy GBP - this is holding the GBP while the EUR is sliding slightly down..

CT Cris 12:09 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
we can buy usd.jpy now for 15-20 pips

St. Annaland Bob 12:03 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Purky, I think and maybe very wrong that USDJPY is just about to start the move down the hill and mountain to bring EURUSD UPnUP ... break above 120 weekly close base will tell me I was wrong ... happy trades

St. Annaland Bob 12:00 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
HiHi Purky ... it's better I will avoid from posting trades I cannot or forget to update ... for today, using above 11975 as s/l level will serve best ... just added 11929 short with 11939 and 11949 as extra add levels waiting ... that $2 trillion Iraq costs figure hammers any positive dream about USD ... happy trades

manchester 11:58 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
cris / netherlands, thanks. i was looking at 11945 to short but dont want to miss out on the trade as this will go down till the build up to BOJ decision

CT Cris 11:47 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
usd.jpy will ris till 11937-40 then decline till 119.20-15 then rise again till 11940

The Netherlands Purk 11:47 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Hello BOB, hope that your stops where not hit on all those shorts usd/jpy.
My target for a short is 11940, dont know if hit already, but it will... e/j keeps on going up, and only boj hiking can get the u/j lower....
All stops 20 pips above the highs....

manchester 11:42 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Qidex, usd/jpy trading levels for this pair. still waiting to short

Melbourne Qindex 11:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market momentum is strong when it can trade above 1.2414.

St. Annaland Bob 11:18 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   

""COMMODITIES:-Rather quiet for the precious metals complex. Computer selling slowed down and physical demand emerged again on the daily lows near 605$. Professionals’ short covering drove the market slightly higher as well. Far East buying this morning helped us to repass above 610$. The CRB index (most important commodity index) is at his lowest level since December 2004.""

Auckland trotter 10:59 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
General pressure for the EUR/USD I have as down to the 23.5% fib on the 1wk 3yr chart @ 1.2961.

M1 on the daily pivot is 1.2964.

Presently @ 1.3034 appears to be a resistance level on the 5min 5day chart.

From the 1hr 5day chart the level @ 1.3000 appears to be the price to be broken for more down movement.

I guess it depends on what time scale you trade on, as I have other indicators that say the EUR/USD is due go in favour of the EUR.

Sitting on longer trades and trading the price bounce with appropriate leverage.

Melbourne Qindex 10:51 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : A projected resistant level is positioning at 231.81.

Auckland trotter 10:10 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:01 GMT January 9, 2007
Yes, I realise the safe options are with volume. Just making a ‘speculative observation’, as news releases should be put in perspective and understood, rather than taken at face value.

Good to see your postings.

italy 10:09 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Eurgbp again to 0,67...the range isn't over,but area 6700 can be a buy opportunity.any comment?

Syd 10:04 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
I prefer greater degree of safety with my hard earned money

Syd 10:01 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:56 The unexpected happens when investors feel safe and prefer greater degree of safety with my hard earned money.

Auckland trotter 09:56 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:47 GMT January 9, 2007
Current central bank rates:

USD - 5.25%
EUR - 3.50%

An obvious choice.

I guess the NZD at 7.25% speaks a lot as investors ignore it.

Dubai Tony 09:53 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Any advice on the GBP/CHF pair

Syd 09:52 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Baht Weakens on Concern Overseas Investors Will Exit Thailand
The Thai baht weakened on speculation overseas investors will add to sales of stocks on concern the junta-appointed government will tighten foreign ownership rules.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=abOmknDS2AFM&refer=currency

Athens MK 09:52 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
A nice intraday target for cable if intraday the bias stays bullish is 1.9504 which is very close to the 1.9514 target of the 1.9260+ buy so take your pick... :)

BTW 1.9506 level is a 50% retracement so from 1.9500-20 you will hear about profit taking.

manchester 09:50 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
4ex-ed, was more looking around 11950 but seems to be stalling around 11916.

Syd 09:47 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Oman to keep 80pc reserves in dollar
(Reuters)

9 January 2007
DUBA — Oman favours keeping most of its $5 billion of central bank reserves in dollars rather than euros because the US currency pays higher interest, the central bank governor said yesterday.
About 80 per cent of the bank's foreign exchange reserves are in dollars, 15 per cent in euros and 5 per cent in pounds, Hamood Sangour Al Zadjali, the central bank's executive president, told Reuters by telephone from Muscat.
"We are not changing our investment policy," Zadjali said. "We think that the dollar is a good investment because it is paying higher interest."

AZUSA 4X-ed 09:38 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
manchester 09:28 GMT January 9, 2007 ||| I would think 119.75 changes the dynamics of this pair dramatically. Best as I can tell, this picture still qualifies for a 'double top' nomination.

Syd 09:33 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Overnight JPY selling versus EUR and GBP is being linked with M&A flows, says a trader, with a large US investment bank involved.

Madrid mm 09:31 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Thailand Tightens Foreign Investment Laws, Sets Limit (Update1)

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Beth Jinks

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's junta-appointed government tightened foreign investment rules, imposing new limits on stake holdings and the use of the country's citizens as nominee owners of companies.

manchester 09:28 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
nt, why do you believe USD/JPY has hit its top. im also looking to short but was waiting to see if it will test 11950-75. would be interested to know people views

Athens MK 09:19 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
=============================
Athens MK 18:22 GMT January 7, 2007
Back from four days of the flu and I hated missing the action on Thursday and Friday... :)

Looking at the market on GBP/$:

I see two scenarios from the current drop -

retracement from 1.9298
Target 1: 1.9430 -45
Target 2: 1.9514 A favorite of mine
target 3: 1.9560

=============================

Back in the office.... Here is a snapshot of cable.

The currency has retraced to the 38.2% level from it's recent drop of 1.9750 level. Usually i.e. 80%+ there should be a rebound to target 2: 1.9514 area from this point unless we are in a new downward trend where it would reverse from here 1.9430 to hit new lows like 1.9095 and 1.8970-90.

If you had went long in the 1.9260+ area yesterday and closed partially your positions at the first target you will be sitting pretty for the next leg up.

Daily charts are showing signs of basing and even a rollover BUT there is still signs of a bearish momentum and weekly charts are adding to this as well. That has to be kept in the equation but for intraday traders yesterday long was a good move.

Currently short-term timeframes are looking bullish as long as cable stays above 1.9350. Target 2: 1.9514 is still on the board for today....

GLGT

hong kong nt 09:15 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Day trade -- sell USD/JPY 119.17, stop 37...

Syd 09:15 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD: Selling Rallies Favored -Commerzbank

Commerzbank's Andy Hart looks for any near-term rally in EUR/USD to remain shallow and limited to the December 18 low of 1.3055. Risk then is for slippage toward 1.2980 with a break targeting 1.2940. For a trading strategy he would sell on rallies to 1.3055, add at 1.3090 if seen with a stop above 1.3105, take half profits at 1.30 and the remainder at 1.2940.

Gen dk 09:11 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:09 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
An Asian account has been selling ahead of 1.9450 in [CABLE] into an otherwise fairly bid market. Recall a US investment house revised its BOE interest rates outlook to include a Feb hike. Credence to their view came today in the form of relatively hawkish data. Retail sales grew a Xmas inspired 2.5% y/y in Dec, up from 0.5% in Nov, says the BRC. Meanwhile, a new UK TFS FMP house prices index forecasts a near doubling in prices by 2030 and A KPMG/Recruitment and Employment Confederation survey shows UK permanent monthly jobs growth was the fastest in 33 months. Thus, we expect the dominant trade, for now, to be a bid bias from 1.9400/10. On the crosses, stops are in place through 0.6700 in Eur/Gbp, but a European central bank has been buying ahead, we are told. IGM

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:06 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:01 GMT
tnx!

Melbourne Qindex 09:01 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:22 GMT January 3, 2007
GBP/CHF : Heading Towards [2.4026]*

Melbourne Qindex 08:59 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : The market is going to vibrate around [2.4026]* with an expected magnitude of 2.3907 - 2.4152.

Melbourne Qindex 08:55 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Heading Towards 1.1808 - 1.1813.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:53 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
GBPCHF - my mistake it made a doji after the steep upmove..
if someone is interested in the cross pls comment on the tech matters..

Ga Lee 08:34 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
I think the downside for cable should be somwhat limited until the rate announcement.."buy the rumor, sell the fact" yet again...is my thinking

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:31 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
5 year highs have been traded in [GBP/CHF] as the yield factor makes a rapid comeback, and the Pound benefits from the surprise leap in consumer demand seen in earlier Dec BRC retail sales data, (+2.5% vs 1.5% m/m f/c). Eur/Chf is slightly lagging the move higher, but today's rally to 1.6135 is within 40 ticks of the year high, and reflects the overall strength of the uptrend, last week's corrective selling now behind us. This should see attention return to the key 1.6200 mark and talk of large option barriers, not to mention buy entries above the all term traded high of 1.6195. As for Gbp/Chf, the break opens up a short term target at 2.4120, (50% retrace of the 2.7305-2.0940 2000-2003 decline), with 2.44-46 potential mid term. IGM

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:29 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
GBPCHF - broke the resistance line around 2.3970/80 and made new highs around 2.440

unfortunately I didn't put a stop and while sleeping I'm far from my entries around 2.3970 - I try now to average opened a few more around 2.4035 - anyway my average entry is at 2.4003
the hourly chart has slow stochs and MACD favoring a reversal - also the present candelstick if close is under 35 will be a bearish engulfing pattern - any way time will show but my confidence here is fainting..

Ga Lee 08:24 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
hmmm...eur/yen....support possibly...154.70 area...a few averages congregating 'round there...

hk ab 07:49 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
nt, seems everyone tries to buy e/j earlier than the hike news out. What's your anticipated max. low of this pair?
want to add long and put a good stop.

Madrid mm 07:36 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Markets will likely mark time again Tuesday ahead of trade data on Wednesday and retail sales data on Friday.

Expect the unexpected.

hong kong nt 07:30 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
AB -- on USD/JPY front, watch the TL originated from 109, rate hike talks plus some profit taking on yen crosses front may send price to 116 in coming days..fwiw..

Madrid mm 07:24 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
JPY returns as a carry trade currency again as Japanese investors return from their holiday, pushing Cross/JPY firmer across the board.

Large Japanese brokerages/ securities houses reported as good AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY buyers, pushing USD/JPY higher, with both having recovered strongly from their 3-week lows only yesterday.

NZD/JPY recovers from 80.93 to 82.30, while NZD/JPY from 91.95 to 93.10 respective, supported by talks of buying on new World Bank NZD411m issue today and new ADB 326m Uridashi later this month.

USD/JPY fixing set at 118.79, with the pair going above key 119 handle to 119.02 highs on Japanese mega-city banks buying, on back of EUR/JPY buying. Stoploss hit above 155 to 155.15, with the cross having recovered from its 1-month lows of 153.66 on Wednesday. More large stoploss orders building above key 155.30, though offers likely to cap 155.50 level, while bids now at 154.80-90.

USD/JPY stoploss orders on break of 119.10, huge offers >2-5bln 119.50-120.00.

Some focus on hawkish comments from Greenspan that US economy is re-accelerating, could have some impact on US bonds. EUR still supported by talks of Sovereign demand 1.2980, though some US sales at 1.3050. Stoploss on break of 1.3050-55.

Cable firmer on GBP/JPY buying, with the Cross having recovered 3 Yen from 1-m lows 228.08 to 231 today, and talks of UK clearer dividend payment. CHF looks to SNB quarterly Bulletin for any warning on CHF weakness vs EUR. NZD/USD supported by NZD/JPY, corporate bids at 0.6880-90, offers still 0.6940-50.

Nikkei +146pts at 17,245, while JGBs lower on fears BoJ may hike rates next week. 10-yr yield +0.025% at 1.735%.

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 118.69/119.02, EUR/USD 1.3020/1.3046, GBP/USD 1.9378/1.9438, USD/CHF 1.2342/1.2374, AUD/USD 0.7799/0.7833, NZD/USD 0.6892/0.6930.

Inheon Spyros 07:08 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 06:52 GMT January 9, 2007
They have mobile phones in Greece?..lol.

hk ab 07:02 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
nt, will BOJ so well protecting the dlr/jpy not much hope for this long to miss...
gold is even more interesting.

hong kong nt 06:56 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
AB -- on EUR/JPY front, if history is any guide, then 500 pips correction plus zig-zag is name of the game..fwiw..

PAR 06:53 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Yen can only get stronger during japanese holidays when there is no intervention by Kampo or BOJ .Carry trades are needed to support world financial markets and thats why stock markets go higher when the yen gets weaker.

Athens MK 06:52 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Good morning.... First target on cable was touched at 1.9430. Looking for the second target at 1.9514 to succumb as well. When I get to the office will take a detail look at the currency since I am on my mobile phone at the moment... :)

hk ab 06:45 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
eur/jpy has good potential to fly again now.....
the exporters are happy now to see 119 prints again.

The Netherlands Purk 06:45 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Well it seems that we all can short the usd/jpy but for now it is only up. My range 11870-11947. 11968 to breach and all stops are out i guess. e/j did tick to the highs yesterday so that move was no surprise... pattern is gone now, have to wait for a new one. Watch the daily hoghs and lows.

Melbourne Qindex 06:36 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges are 228.18 - 229.21 - 230.29 - 231.28

warsaw TOMi 06:36 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
square swissy 2371.

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
hong kong nt 05:35 GMT
hi nt - do you have any view on GBPCHF?

Sydney ACC 06:15 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
There are some sizeable Kiwi Uridashi maturities later this month - 22nd January NZD 684 million, 25th January NZD 105 million and 30th January NZD 684 million again.
Bonds issued by World Bank and IBRD.

On the AUD two amounts AUD 647 million on 18th January and AUD 220 million on 22nd January.

Melbourne Qindex 06:05 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : the market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 154.45.

Melbourne Qindex 05:59 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading ranges are 153.72 - 154.21 - 154.69 - 155.18.

Melbourne Qindex 05:37 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.2894 - 1.2970 - 1.3047.

Syd 05:36 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY May Fall If No Trichet Signal Thurs
EUR/JPY unwinding may not have finished, pair may enter more detailed downtrend if drops below 154 again, says senior customer dealer at major Japan bank. Adds such move likely if ECB's Trichet doesn't signal near-term rate hike at briefing Thursday; trader doubts Trichet will point to rate hike though notes market opinion remains divided. Also, media reports hinting at BOJ rate hike next week will continue to underpin JPY

hong kong nt 05:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF -- 38 fibonacci retracement of 05NOV high and 06DEC low at 1.241..fwiw..

Melbourne Qindex 05:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The moving daily targeting range is 1.2894 - 1.3072.

Melbourne Qindex 05:24 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market is still under pressure when it is trading below 1.3057. The downside targeting range is 1.2892 - 1.2896, once the market can penetrate through 1.2973..

Mumbai NS 04:22 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
gfx euro and cbl mate

gl gt

singapore gfx 04:19 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
mumbai ns,

what pair are refering to pls. thx

hk ab 04:10 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
buy small e/j to test the blade of knife in butter.

Vancouver Mike 04:05 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Please disregard prev post

Vancouver Mike 04:03 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Re Sterling: LOL, What a schizophrenic currency. Any explanation for 100 pip drop hour & half ago?

hk ab 03:54 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
It seems that the e/j stubborn bulls don't want to give up yet. Maybe better to buy with them on retracement.....
all hopes on BOJ hike vanishes?

Mumbai NS 03:29 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Nice bottom in place njoy the probable ride. gl gt

Makassar Alimin 02:21 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
moved stop loss to entry on usdcad short, off for few hours, see u guys

Sydney ACC 02:17 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 01:26 GMT January 9, 2007
I would expect a nation's central bank to manage the risk associated with its reserves in an afficient manner. What is the point of all the brow beating shifting reserves from one currency to another when substantially more can be saved by reallocating the reserves into differnt asset groups. That is being done now instead of investing in treasuries funds are moved into mortgage backed securities such as Fannie Maes. If a percentage is invested in a diversified portfolio of equities the risk is not that much greater than investing in long dated bonds. More was lost in the bond rout of the early noneties than in 1987.
To my mind China would have benefited more investing in Exon Mobil last year than trreasuries. Having a large enough shareholding may have enabled them to secure other benefits than a return on their money.

Makassar Alimin 02:15 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
great, limit sell 1.9431 was filled, stop 1.9472, target test of 1.92 low again if not new low, good luck

Makassar Alimin 14:46 GMT January 5, 2007
if there is any bounce, then cable should be sold again around 1.9430, what was once a good support now becomes a good resistance, still sell on rallies for weeks ahead...this is IF we do get a bounce

zurich 02:00 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
i thought you were predicting the lows. did not read revdax question entirely. my mistake

usa bay 01:55 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
ga lee,

thanks. i only have to fill part 11 right?. thanks again

Cannes Oil man 01:55 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
*whom.

Cannes Oil man 01:55 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
It was for revdax, which i am sure understood.

Ga Lee 01:50 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
usa bay 01:35 GMT January 9, 2007
form 6781 Section 1256, contracts and straddles

zurich 01:46 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
oilman,

is it 1.2392 or 1.2292

Cannes Oil man 01:42 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
1.2392--1.2250

usa bay 01:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
hey can anyone help me on how to file forex gain or loss on income tax returns pls. thanks

hk revdax 01:28 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone attempt to forecast the hi/lo of $/CHF for today?
I am shorting it. TIA

Cannes Oil man 01:26 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
CB aren't protecting their "investments" , they aren't made to invest .. They keep "..stability of the national currency and money supply, but more active duties include controlling subsidized loan interest rates, and acting as a "bailout" lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of financial crisis (private banks often being integral to the national financial system)....."
-
Did you really expect a CB to invest in let's say google , or whatever?

Gen dk 01:11 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 01:03 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:56 GMT we are dealing with humans fear , in the longer term picture you have to ask yourself once all the central banks have emptied their coffers of USD as they did gold then what ??

Sydney ACC 00:56 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:45 GMT January 9, 2007
Equity markets have been very volatile this year. Nothing to see ALL Ords move 1% in a day.
With such volatile conditions it would be natural to expect treasuries become a haven for investors thus providing support for USD.
It is odd though that no matter how good USD data gets sentiment doesn't follow to the same extent. Market players always concerned by central bank activities.
It's odd though you have central banks moving money around from one currency to another to protect their investment or generate additional returns, yet if they had invested in US equities a year ago they could have generated returns of 40% plus. They would be better off handing over the investment of teh funds to a manager givibng them liberal guidelines than worrying whether they should invest in gilts, treasuries of bunds.

Syd 00:45 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:35 GMT actually trying to get a handle on it myself - but feel the big Dollar has a bit more to go, did you read the piece on Marc Faber I posted , he has been good over the last two - three years. Recent moves from hedge funds pushing around the markets doesnt help, suppose got to just keep an eye on everything and believe nothing (smile)

warsaw TOMi 00:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
long swissy 2344 stop 2314

Sydney ACC 00:35 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:32 GMT January 9, 2007
Sydney ACC 00:29 wrong as usual typical
They haven't been too bad recently. Their predictictions on the employment figures have been better than most.
How do you see the big dollar, got a view I am a little confused, thought we might see further carry trade liquidations.

Sydney ACC 00:33 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:29 GMT January 9, 2007
CBA bullish on Australian retail sales due in a few minutes predictig +0.6% versus market consensus 0.3%.
Calling for AUD to test 0.7830 resistance.

Actual figure +0.2%

Syd 00:32 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:29 wrong as usual typical

Syd 00:32 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Australian Nov Retail Sales +0.2% Vs +0.3% Consensus

Sydney ACC 00:29 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
CBA bullish on Australian retail sales due in a few minutes predictig +0.6% versus market consensus 0.3%.
Calling for AUD to test 0.7830 resistance.

warsaw TOMi 00:24 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
sshort eurdol 1.3044 stop 3066

warsaw TOMi 00:12 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
add 9420*

warsaw TOMi 00:12 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
will add to short 9620 stop 9444

warsaw TOMi 00:05 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
short cable 1.9407

Zurich 00:03 GMT January 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes oil man,
whats the target for nzd/usd pls. thanks