Forex Forum Archive for 01/11/2007

Singapore GFX 23:50 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Could you please post the analysis for aud/usd please. Thanks

Syd 23:45 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
With ECB meeting out of way, attention back on "the key development that has taken place in recent weeks - reduced expectations of a Fed cut," says Brown Brothers Harriman's Meg Browne. Notes June euribor/eurodollar spread has widened almost 10 bps this week in favor of USD; with brief EUR/USD overnight correction now ended, "clear break of the 1.2930 level (the 50% retracement of the euro's rally from October) opens 1.2825." Trichet signaled ECB will hike again but kept flexibility on timing, making point of noting he didn't say "vigilant" - taken as clue ECB will pause in February; Trichet also said in Q&A he would do nothing to change market expectations

FW CS 23:45 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 23:18 GMT January 11, 2007
Thanks... I happen to be a pig so hopefully this year belongs to me. I have banked many pips in Euro since thanksgiving long at 1.26, 1.30 which I dumped near 1.33 and then short at 1.3195 and also 1.3085. Hope this is also the year of the $. Nice start thus far.

Gen dk 23:30 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:28 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
NZ November building consents adds to argument for RBNZ to hold rates, says UBS chief economist Robin Clements; notes while monthly series highly volatile, 2 consecutive months showing decline "holds more water" than fall in single month. November adjusted building permits down 12% on-month, down 4.8% excluding apartments; "they are fairly chunky movements so it does take some of the steam out of what appeared to be renewed strength in the housing construction market," says Clements, adding housing market strength has played key role in raising RBNZ's inflation concerns

Syd 23:26 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
BOE and ECB both still keen on tightening monetary conditions but on pace of action they seem to disagree: BOE surprised last night with 25bp move which raises question of what it bank knew that markets are set to find out; "given the unusual step of moving outside of the usual inflation report month pattern the market will no doubt speculate something significant has altered the MPC's thinking and there are more hikes to come. At the margins, since the MPC will have known next week's CPI data, we can speculate the number was high," says BNP's Alan Clarke. ECB meanwhile stood pat while Trichet didn't refer to vigilance; "the statement confirms the ECB remains in a tightening mood but it did not convey any impression of urgency (hence no rate hike in February)," adds BNP's Luigi Speranza. Divergence resulted in EUR/GBP falling to 18-month low 0.6640 overnight

van Gecko 23:18 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
messieurs Alimin, nk, & RP, thanks.. well done CS..
be lucky.. fill the piggy bank in the year of the Golden Pig..

Zurich 23:13 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Thanks a lot for the analysis Dr Q. GT

Melbourne Qindex 23:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is expected to consolidate between 154.28 - 155.85. The mid-point reference of 154.28 - 155.85 is 155.07. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy as long as the market is trading below 156.62.

Syd 22:58 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
When the Bank of England pushed through a surprise rate hike Thursday, it was not only a shot across the bows of investors in Britain, but a reminder to their U.S. brethren that interest-rate cycles can be highly unpredictable.

With U.S. Treasury yields pushing up Thursday to their highest level in several months, the U.K. move could add to the current second-guessing among market participants over whether a Fed rate cut cycle is really on the agenda.

For the third time since August, the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee raised its benchmark lending rate Thursday morning by 25 basis points to 5.25%. That's the highest U.K. rates have been since May 2001.

The bank said it is "likely" price pressures will rise further, taking the inflation rate - currently 2.7% - further away from the BOE's 2% inflation target.

Not one of the 13 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a tightening at this meeting.

The decision delivered a jolt to markets. Sterling soared across the board, lifting to an 18-month high versus the euro, while gilts tumbled straight after the announcement. The move caused brief selling of Treasurys and garnered attention among U.S. stock investors, who are sensitive to any talk of rising rates.

Yet beyond the immediate impact, the MPC decision has a broader story to tell. Eighteen months ago, with the U.K. economy weakening, led by a softening housing market, the BOE embarked on what was expected to be an easing cycle, cutting rates to 4.50%, from 4.75% in August 2005.

At first, most investors considered it a matter of time before further easing was enacted. However, by early 2006, a recovery in the housing market and a pickup in growth and inflation had changed the dynamics. In August the bank agreed a surprise rate hike, followed by a second in November and another Thursday. Thus, while the BOE said in its accompanying statement Thursday it was confident inflation would fall back to its 2% target later in the year, the incentive to raise rates was stronger than it might have been for the Fed.

Moreover, economists have noted specific factors that aided the U.K. housing market rebound which the U.S. is unlikely to enjoy - not least a large influx of immigrant workers from countries that have recently joined the European Union.

Still, while it would be dangerous to take the U.K. lessons too much to heart, Wachovia's Schenker said Treasury investors would do well to keep an eye on the U.K. story. Above all, it shows that in the world of bond markets and monetary policy "things can change rather rapidly."

Cannes Oil man 22:56 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
CS :

Only a few days to wait till we know for certain , how the market perceives the rate hikes..
Charts definitely don't point to downside , doesn't mean it's going to keep going up though..3 days to 14th boj hike , worth waiting that..As for that guy talking about mortgaging houses , or borrowing to long $Y, it's very silly , already discussed the merrits of $y last nights.
Best wishes for 07;)

Melbourne Qindex 22:56 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market is expected to consolidate between 232.64 - 234.74 in Asian session. The mid-point reference of 232.64 and 234.74 is 233.69.

dubai 22:53 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
hi,any comments for eur/usd

dc CB 22:48 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
the view of the IMM day session pit...via BP index...bounced smartly off the 50dma...ADX turning positive

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$xbp&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930

Zurich 22:44 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   

Melbourne Qindex,

Dr Q, when you are free please share your gbp/jpy and eur/jpy analysis with us. Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 22:41 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 22:40 GMT - You are welcome.

London Gooner 22:41 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 22:12 GMT January 11, 2007

Don't think we'll see 1.9500 in the asian session but who knows. (would be nice). If Asia uses the old 1.9433 low (18 dec 06) we may see higher tomorrow in europe.

Atlanta South 22:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex//
Tks for you post. The latest on Gbp/$ confirms what my model is showing. They are within 10 pips of each other.
Again, tks for your posts as they are always most informative
& keeps me on track. GT

ldn jas 22:32 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:28 GMT January 11, 2007
Thanks QIndex....appreciated

Melbourne Qindex 22:28 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is expected to consolidate between 1.9228 - 1.9446. The center, 1.9337, is a barrier. The upside targeting level is 1.9631 - 1.9664. and a barrier is positioning at 1.9539 - 1.9555. On the other hand 1.9120 is the downside targeting point. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.9408. Keep an eye on the barrier of EUR/GBP, 0.6628 // 0.6695*.

FW CS 22:19 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
teh 22:00 GMT January 11, 2007
I will say this one more time that works OK as lng as the Yen depreciates but if it appreciates you can lose ur arse. in 1998 Tiger Management did these Yen carry trades and lost like 2-3 billion in one day when the Yen sharply appreciated. That being said, I do favor more Yen weakness though but its all speculation and more important RISK. No such thing as a free lunch.

Budapest Z 22:15 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
the censored word is h e l l (i wonder why that is censored)

ldn jas 22:14 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:10 GMT January 11, 2007
Yes bad choice of words from me QIndex - analysis would be much appreciated...thank you

Budapest Z 22:13 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
The road to censored is paved with carry.

RIC fxq 22:13 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
teh DIAF

Zurich 22:12 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner,

So cable is more likely to see 1.9500 in asian session than moving down from present level. Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 22:10 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 22:08 GMT - I can run the analysis but will try to avoid any recommendation.

London Gooner 22:10 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Houston CJ 21:37 GMT January 11, 2007
Gooner_ I am Long GBP/USD @ 1.9444.
-
Hi CJ, am long from 1.9410 - I would say that if the market struggles
it will be at 1.9510 fibo. if that goes see 1.9580. That's a 3rd wave up forming scenario - rather than seing the move from 1.9261 as an a-b-c correction of previous downmove.


LKWD JJ 21:07 GMT January 11, 2007
gooner with oil coming down as well and the uk as an exporter should be somewhat of a drag, or the mkt doesnt really care.?
-
am not sure how much oil impacts Cable personally.

ldn jas 22:08 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:05 GMT January 11, 2007
QIndex - do you have any recommendations for gbp/usd please....thank you

Melbourne Qindex 22:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The initial upside targeting point of my weekly cycle is 120.77.

El Cerrito,CA dec 22:02 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Not sure why they censored G F T

El Cerrito,CA dec 22:01 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Anybody here using censored's Foresight indicator?

teh 22:00 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Carry Trade. It is AngloAmerican. Japanese are not AngloAmerican. BoFukui has openly commented he is not worried about the YEN Carry Trade.

However margins applied to Hedge Funds, does not matter. They tighten the margin, I just borrow more Yen, my cost would rise marginally.

The MegaFunds are Borrowing Yen big time for the next rally in Commodities, Gold, Silver, and even Oil.

We would expect next Thursday when BoJ announces a pause to be the interim bottom in Oil and Gold and of course the start of a DollarYen rally to 140.

Talk to your Banker now, and borrow YEN.

You can borrow YEN to fund your Margin Trade, Business, and any other thing under the sun. I borrowed YEN to buy my Yatch last yr. (if you see one in Sausilito named "Aragon", that is mine). Would be redeeming the principal soon once my first target of 125 is reached. I would have spare to get a V12 Bugati soon.

Short YEN 119.10-15 (buy on dips on the small retracement)
Stoploss 118.95
Target 121 then 140

Meanwhile the base is 119.50, be patient and wait for the dip towards 119.10/15
if you wait till next week, too late, YEN would have broken 121.

We act together, we are even stronger than BoFukui. You dun have to be a hedge fund to do Carry Trade. Carry Trade is a technique much like momentum trading, swing trading.

Carry trade is just short it, sit back and relax, no signals, no patterns, no wave. The CB is behind supporting your position.

HK_macau 22:00 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Thank You. So is USD/JPY a sell here. Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 21:57 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Hk_macau 19:22 GMT - USD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between 120.26 - 120.83. A barrier is positioning at 120.51 - 120.59. Projected supporting points are located at 119.10 and 119.53.

Syd 21:55 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
NZ's Adj Nov Dwelling Consents -13.6% Vs Oct
NZ Adj Nov Dwelling Consents -0.4% Vs Year-Ago
NZ Adj Nov Dwelling Consents Ex-Aparts -5.0% Vs Oct NZD/USD Drops To $0.6902 From $0.6915 On Nov Bldg Data

Houston CJ 21:49 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Thanks in advance and please excuse my poor grammer. I really should have read over my statement prior to submitting it.

Hillgom Martha 21:47 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 21:22 GMT January 11, 2007
Purky...when you said "analyse this" did you refer to anthing to do with forex?

Houston CJ 21:37 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Gooner_ I am Long GBP/USD @ 1.9444. I know there are a pile of offers sitting at 1.9473-5. Do you think we are going to see enough bidding to push through during the asian market? OR do you think the GBP/JPY cross is loosing steam and is going to drive the GBP/USD down?

Currently I am letting it ride through the night, but I am considering placing a limit at 70 and pulling my chips off the table.

Purk I would like you take on this too.

Syd 21:34 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Commodity Price Fall Risk To Aussie Dlr -BBH

The Netherlands Purk 21:22 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Right, i have come up with the following range in usd/jpy which i have been trading recently, because it gives better retraces than the e/j... 11986-12077. This range can be spoiled if we dont reach the 12016ish, and go right through the 12088 in the morning. If we can go through the 11952 on the downside than it changes again, isnt it great?
I personally feel that we have appointment with 120...
Loonie plays a dangerous game now, on the edge, it wants to see 118 again, but isnt it time for a 100 pip correction? The low of 11697 can form a new bottom for that matter.
Squirp

LKWD JJ 21:07 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
gooner with oil coming down as well and the uk as an exporter should be somewhat of a drag, or the mkt doesnt really care.?

London Gooner 21:03 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 20:49 GMT January 11, 2007
LKWD JJ 20:39 GMT January 11, 2007

Also, with weak manufacturing production base UK is importing inflation from everywhere.
As we see as well, Central Bankers are in the mood that strictly inflation needs to be controlled. They worry less about weaker macro data as long as they're relatively in the trends. UK still doing ok overall.

ps: see that lovely double top on EURCHF today !

wyborg grey wolf 20:59 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd tomorrow any forecast???

London Gooner 20:49 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:39 GMT January 11, 2007

I think they moved earlier that economists thought because they are pretty sure they will hike again.
Property prices need cooling down, but also borrowing - to avoid a bubble situation. I think they are not done yet.

LKWD JJ 20:46 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:39 GMT January 11, 2007
GOONER ty . do you think it was a "one off" move from boe, or is there more down the line?

sorry missed last lines of your ealier post. the last few reports prior to todays inflation were showing a weaker economy than a stronger, which is part of the reason mkt was surprised today. what tells you there one in the bag, the fact that they didnt wait until feb?

ABHA FXS 20:45 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Thursday January 11, 2006
Trade Sell USD/CHF at 1.2513
Stop is 1.2586
Target is 1.1900
Risk is 77 pips
Reward is 609 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 7.9
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : excellent
Previous predictions:

USD/CHF Wave Hypothesis for December 26, 2006 at 17:00 ET:

A downwards impulse wave since October 16, 2006 at 1.2770 is carrying USD/CHF towards 1.1450 in a few months (an 11.5% decline). This is part of a larger downtrend that began February 28, 2006 at 1.3235. At that time, employing Elliott Wave and Q System analysis, I predicted a strong downturn targetting about 1.1300, a 17% decline.

The current uptrend that began December 5, 2006 is headed to between 1.2300 and 1.2400, at which point we will be blessed by a very favorable short trading opportunity with low risk and high reward potential.

The short term current pattern is amenable to a variety of different wave interpretations, so the certainty level is low. We could see a decline from here to the 1.2100 area, as Trade Experiment #297 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2220 is predicated upon. Or we could see a rise to 1.2300

My guess is that the price of USD/CHF will rise from its current value at 1.2230 up to 1.2250, then fall to 1.2205, then rise to about 1.2300. Then it will begin its larger move down to about 1.2050, which would present a favorable trading opportunity.

&...

PAR 20:43 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
In Trichets opinion EURJPY is still incredibly high with a PPP rate of 100 vs actual rate of 156 , but what can he do .

Syd 20:42 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi is chopping from Monday's low at .6845. Though seen as a correction with an eventual resumption of the longer term declines after (potentially sharp), there is scope for more upward ranging toward .6965/75 (both the ceiling of the multi-day bullish channel and a 50% retracement from the Jan 2nd high at .7095, a retracement that tends to work well in the kiwi) first. For now, would wait for those higher levels to short. Nearby support is at .6780 (base of the multi-day channel), with a break below the .6840/50 low (also the the bullish trendline since June) potentially trigger a further downside acceleration. FXA

LKWD JJ 20:39 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
GOONER ty . do you think it was a "one off" move from boe, or is there more down the line?

West Ham oldgroyne 20:33 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
singapore gfx 20:08 GMT January 11, 2007

In answer to your question - who know's...

Take a look at the USD/YEN monthly chart. It appears to me that the price is trying to break out of a down trend since 98... well could be. Look what the exchange rate was in the 80's. Of course fundamentals where different then but circumstances are always changing. This is not advice to take a trade but if you do keep it very "small" - very small.

to catt 20:32 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
does anyone has Citibank's recomendations perhaps?

London Gooner 20:26 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 19:43 GMT January 11, 2007
London Gooner 19:30 GMT January 11, 2007
-

See your point. The problem with Cable especially on daily with moving averages is that it will play so much with any ma below 50 that it can confuse.
I look at the 50d ma which was lost and now regained on daily. So if short which may be valid I would want to see below 1.9400 again on close.
I pointed the monthly trendline level because market dipped 200 pips below but now back testing it again. If trading remains above next few sessions it would warn capitulation of shorts and squezze higher.
Alongside the levels of others EUR,CHF,CAD - If these correct Cable will be the big mover again. That's the risk for shorts.

Still overall it's another tricky new year with many calls in all directions - Too early for me to see where we'll trend. Q1 never easy.

Poland Piotr 20:13 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
gbp/jpy = gbp/chf

NYC 20:13 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR. The ECB was not expected to raise rates in Feb and Mar was seen as more likely. The surprise BOE rate hike quickly shifted expectations for a Feb rate hikeand thus the euro sell off when Trichet did not send a signal for feb. Also euro crosses were stretched v. jpy and chf and eur/gbp and eur/aud were under attack. Combine that with some stale euro longs and we had a blowout day in eur/usd.

Poland Piotr 20:12 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Anyone cares to comment on GBP/JPY, it seems to be skyrocketing. thanks

singapore gfx 20:08 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
West Ham,

thanks a lot for the explanation. learnt something new today. do you also perceive usd/jpy to hit 125 and eventually 140 by year end. thanks again

PAR 20:04 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trichet giving in to France s pressure not to hike rates . De facto ECb not independent whatever Germans say .

West Ham oldgroyne 20:01 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Singapore gfx 19:42 GMT January 11, 2007

Teh's post also touches on other ways to benefit from the interest rate differential. Here in the UK there are some who have speculated to the extent that their mortgage is taken out in another currency, like the yen for example because of its low interest rate. Usually the bank will want to see evidence of Yen earnings and/or be satisifed that the borrower is able to meet their obligations and understand the risks involved. It is also possible to swap the loan from one currency to another. In essence it really is simply trading FX with your house. I am sure that such loans can be taken out in most other countries.

Incidentally, in Hungary a very large amount of domestic home loan business is carried out in Swiss Francs, bearing in mind that cost of homes and average income in that country makes it very difficult for many in their local currency.

London Gooner 20:01 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD
1.2877 100 days ma
1.2869 20 Weeks ma
1.2859 10 Months ma

seems that pip by pip market fishing for some hard stops, if EURUSD is like we've seen before the only pair moving by 25 to 40 pips (ie completely on its own) - should buy that quick move down.

LKWD JJ 19:59 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
cable price action today seems to me as follows. boe raises rates , with mkt flatfooted. 100 pips in a flash which runs buy stops .mkt moves to 195+. shorts jump in and push it down which takes out r2 19456 and feeds on new sell stops. goes to r1 19390. shorts cover . and now where back @ r2.

Rye,NY et 19:49 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
LA BV 19:44 GMT January 11, 2007
Dailies...(Not a conventional type of chart)...Good Trades...

LA BV 19:44 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Rye. What time frame chart is that on?

LKWD JJ 19:43 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 19:30 GMT January 11, 2007
Cable at interesting level
================
is it not weakness that has come to the mkt for not sustaining above 1.95? or is it wishfull thinking as im short?
10 ma(daily) is right here 19450 area. also 50ma on 4hr chart .high of 36 today was @20 ma daily. your view is always welcome as you are the man with his finger on the pulse being over in the uk. cheers

Singapore gfx 19:42 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
West Ham/Hong Kong Ahe,

Thanks for the explanation. I get it

Houston CJ 19:36 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Who would the ECB become more dependent upon? Or am I no understanding the Bundesbank's statement?

Rye,NY et 19:35 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
I posted this earlier today...fwiw...
Rye,NY et 02:29 GMT January 11, 2007
Eur/Usd...fwiw...The market has been trading the internal trendlines of a Bearish Channel consistently since last week. With today's opening, I would expect the market to trade in both directions, first up to 13060, then down to 12880. There is, however, a problem at 12880. It is the exact intersection of both a major Bearish Channel Trendline and a major Bullish Channel Trendline (extended from the previous Short-term Uptrend). If the market trades through that level, then the Short-term bias remains to the downside. If it bounces, however, it may mean a return to the Bearish Channel midpoint or the decending Resistance Line OR it may mean a return to the Uptrend. Time, of course, and the market will tell...Just my read of my charts...GL/GT

The Netherlands Purk 19:35 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
A bit proud of the e/j, because it came back from the 156 theme, dont think that anyone (including me) had thought that, because brother beasty stays well over 234. So i guess what we saw today had nothing to do with yen weakness but more with usd and gbp strength. we saw some strange moves in usd/jpy so let us wait for tomorrow.

Rye,NY et 19:33 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Long Eur/Usd 12884; stop 12872; target open

Syd 19:32 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
German Govt Won't Accept Cut In ECB Independence

BERLIN (AP)--Germany said Thursday it would not tolerate any watering down of the independence of the European Central Bank, as suggested by French President Jacques Chirac.

West Ham oldgroyne 19:31 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFx 19:10 GMT January 11, 2007
Teh,

How do I go to a local bank in USA and asked to borrow yen?? And as for your ,margin trade short yen 119.50?? Please explain. Thanks

What he means is to long USD/YEN (which is the same as his short yen trade). Go to any broker and I am sure you will get ample leverage on this trade (just like borrowing from a bank). But don't get carried away with leverage - keep it small. Apart from encouraging you to bet the house, Teh's post could actually be good advice, rather than to try and trade each move with large leverage and tight stops. I have positions still open since Nov 04 and have earned hansomely from it. Caution, don't be greedy and keep your trade "small".

London Gooner 19:30 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cable at interesting level -
1.9455 area is a monthly trendline coming from sept 1992.

Weekly close above implies possible much higher monthly close above that line as it becomes support.
If one expected a thrust to 2.000+ it could be usefull to bear in mind that monthly level, as the market did not spend a lot of sessions below
that line while correcting obviously with help from BOE today.
It seems clear that BOE has another rate hike ready in the bag.

False prior break on run to 1.9850 or have we seen end of correction is hard to tell. If EURUSD does bottom near current favour long Cable for further rate hike speculation.

CT Cris 19:26 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
usd.jpy sell 120.50 tp 120.00 sell another if rise.

Syd 19:25 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Crude down $51.85 in NY

Hong Kong Ahe 19:25 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFx 19:10 GMT, u ask a Japanese bank to lend u money in Yen.

Hk_macau 19:22 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Can you please the analysis for USD/Yen please. Thank You

Houston CJ 19:16 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 18:07 GMT January 11, 2007

I guess your neighbor theory proved to be correct once again!

warsaw TOMi 19:13 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
went long €/$ 2892 , stop 2872.

Singapore GFx 19:10 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Teh,

How do I go to a local bank in USA and asked to borrow yen?? And as for your ,margin trade short yen 119.50?? Please explain. Thanks

CT Cris 18:28 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cable turned into narrow sideways awaiting new trend.

Houston CJ 18:24 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Just got a message that Barclays is predicting oil to fall below 50 in the near future.... and the word on the floor right now is that there is more downward pressure to come. Trader are selling rallies rather than buying dips.

But one has to wonder about the address given last night by my wonderful president... there is always a possiblility to see a super spike!

manchester 18:18 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
i cant see oil coming down to far below 50. Its the big players in the market like China who are letting this price decrease and not rushing out for stockpiles. When they decide to go in I can see oil hitting $80 this year

manchester 18:14 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
thanks Japp, closed half my postion out now. looking to see where we close today now. pretty generous s/l 11815 and not expecting it up there just yet

Houston CJ 18:14 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 18:07 GMT January 11, 2007

To add to your statement... The correlation coefficient of the loonie and commodities (oil and nat gas to be specific) is positive. Usually floats above 0.6. So with that said where oil and gas go so goes the loonie!

The Netherlands Purk 18:07 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
manchester 16:56 GMT January 11, 2007

There used to be a time ALEX that the loonie flapped its wings last hour of NY session, i have learned that from my nextdoorneighbour, but lately that doesnt happen anymore. But it tend to move during late NY session, and for you i beg it to come down, but said this before, i think that from the 11095 on from a couple of months ago, loonie is a rocket that will do some hickups, but 120 can be reached this year...

teh 18:06 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
okay, 120 breaks easily

Due to coming Japan election in Spring, and pressure from MoF, the BoJ is not likely to hike (70% now). The would hike only when the consumer is spending again, in 3-4 Qtr. (when US recover in 2nd half).

Assuming Oct for first hike, we have 9 months of guaranteed 0.5% interest rate on Yen borrowing.

Goto your local BANK, take up a loan, let say of 100,000 USD equivalent of 1,190,000 YEN. Pay near zero interest, and use it to finance your Mortgage payment, buy a new house, a Bugati, a Merecedes SLR, and of course to fund your DollarYen margin trade.

Your margin trade would be a safe bet for at least 9 months. Generating substantial gains of 500%. (generous stops, good money management assumed, with target of 140 YEN at 3Qtr end)

Your margin trade would be more than enough to fund your Yen interest, plus a comfortable regular income every month. If you are conservative, buy just one or two contracts. For the more aggressive ones, 5-10 contracts. Meanwhile the MEGAFUNDs have already shorted YEN from 118.10.

It is cheaper to borrow Yen instead of USD (or even your domestic currency) in your home country, whether you are in US, UK, Europe, Asia, etc.

As for your margin trade;

Short YEN 119.10-15
Stoploss 118.95
Target 121 then 140
140 is forecasted by some agressive Bank

Practice stoploss and your gains would be phenomenal. Best kept secret on Wall Street. 20,000 pips from current level. Better than shorting EURUSD or GBPUSD. EuroYen heading to 140, not worth the while.

Today Beijing allows HK to sell CNY bonds. Soon Carry Trades would switch to Yuan Carry Trade. Meanwhile, stick with Yen Carry Trade.

Good luck !!!!!

saloniko nk 17:58 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO 16:21 GMT January 11, 2007


HOLA!

.....dont lose time frome ur rest to read my posts..;)

Go rest...Do the Best..!lol

nk

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:58 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Stay short euro's target 12780-88-96 weekly target...gl

AZUSA 4X-ed 17:51 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 17:28 GMT January 11, 2007 ||| Sensible way to look at things and reinforced by such polarized opinions in this forum. Expecting a small bounce in euro, but no change in new year's trend.

Las Vegas DJS 17:44 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
NYC 16:38 GMT January 11, 2007

I don't have conventional stops per se. I predicted that sell off on my method that involves RSI divergences.I use a short term indicator. I trade 4 hour charts and even with the spike and looking at a 1 or 2 hours chart, the spike was diverged.

No worries here.....

RIC fxq 17:34 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
"buy the euro, mr valentine has set the price"

FW CS 17:33 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Euro 1.26 may be a better bounce area but right here short term a little Oversold so not the best place for new shorts

HK Kevin 17:32 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 17:08 GMT, I think too risky on that trade. Expect more capital shift in the coming days from the Euro zone to UK because of interest differential and a better economic shape in UK.
Got stop loss of short USD/JPY from 119.52 at 119.79 earlier today. Now hold small long EUR from 1.2898.

USA BAY 17:31 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oilman,

For a sure 30 pips gain from now to asian session, what will the best pair to buy. Thanks

FW CS 17:28 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 11:29 GMT December 15, 2006
van Gecko 06:09 GMT December 15, 2006

seems like human nature doesn't change even after a cover story gets big exposure. I am suspecting that a Euro topping pattern will look like the bottom pattern- multiple right shoulders in the SHS top. And I am beginnig to suspect that top we saw will not be seen for quite a long time to come

FW CS 11:22 GMT December 15, 2006
hong kong nt 04:58 GMT December 15, 2006

It may very well be a 'wave 4' type correction but still more blood lettting and $ bear flusing to go before we can start a sustained $ bear market. So why not ride the wave up till it ends? I myslef am suspecting that is a multi month top we just saw. Just like when the Euro bottomed it made 2 right shoulders on a head and shoulders.
_________________________________

I am still suspecting we may have seen the high for the year on the Euro. I say that was 2 good attempts to make new highs and a failure. Maybe a repeat of 2004 wher both the $ and gold went up.

Cannes Oil man 17:21 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
sell $chf as close as possible to 1.2490 , it won't be long before the "euphoria" is done..(Quoting SNB Ross words of today).

Cannes Oil man 17:13 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
OTTAWA mjw 17:12 GMT January 11, 2007

Up , strong buy.

OTTAWA mjw 17:12 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
oilman could u pls give your view on cable /$

Cannes Oil man 17:08 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Buy EURGBP 6640 S/L 6620 T/P 6750.
gl

Cannes Oil man 17:07 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
And move the stops to entry when it moves above 1.2940..(if).

Cannes Oil man 17:01 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 16:55 GMT January 11, 2007

Buy 1.2900 SL 25 ..T/P above 1.30..

manchester 16:56 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad. any opions at these levels. we've come back down to my short entry points at 11760. push up past 11810 or zoom down?

St. Annaland Bob 16:56 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
by the way, my banker called me early in the morning to tell me to play EURUSD 12890-13000 today ... he suggested 12945>13005>12895 ... some know more than the other.

AZUSA 4X-ed 16:55 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:40 GMT January 11, 2007
Low is in , buy euro.

What is the strategy here Oil (i.e. r/r)? Also, do you think the market is discounting tomorrow's data?

St. Annaland Bob 16:52 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
QUEEN, Bunch Of Jerks does not make it easier ... anyway, happy trades and will avoid to enter the WC when passing Europe tonight.

St. Annaland Bob 16:49 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
QUEEN, I take 12750-12800 as the price and the time cycle I allow it's two weeks after the flirt starts with that level, while anything below 12730 is the SWAN SONG for the single currency this year.

Cannes Oil man 16:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Low is in , buy euro.
gl gt

EU theEUROqueen 16:38 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
happy day bob..

the 1,28** must hold ..

happy trade

NYC 16:38 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
DJS. I just checked the archives and eur was trading around 1.2660 -65 when you said that. It then spiked to 1.3015 before the Trichet inspired collapse. So while it tanked as you said, your call did not mean much unless you gave a trade call that would not have gotten stopped out on the spike.

Las Vegas DJS 16:30 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR tanked liked I said.......

Cannes Oil man 16:29 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Meanwhile Gold is up , Aud is up , nzd is up, $CHF up 10 pips on the day from yesterday's high..Massive stop hunt?

Cannes Oil man 16:21 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 16:18 GMT January 11, 2007

shhht..It's a secret..Let them have the fun selling 1.2900 ;)

EU ZORRO 16:21 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Hi nk...!!!!

...hope everything is fine with U...

GL and GT

St. Annaland Bob 16:18 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
the best I can post are recent quotes from the one who really knows what trading and markets are really about, it's like cycle in electronics that makes everybody to buy flat screens currently. think in figures, forget the pips.



shanghai bc 02:51 GMT January 11, 2007
Cannes Oil man 23:07 GMT January 10, 2007

Thanks..I am a cycle-man rather than a price-level man..Price-level is of secondary importance to me to start my selling or buying..We are still in Dollar bounce cycle since early Dec although Dollar bounce cycle may be almost over..We were heavy sellers above Eur/Usd 1.32..Will turn heavy buyers when the up-cycle arrives..Not sure when although I feel we are a week or two away from it..All the best in the new year..

shanghai bc 00:01 GMT January 10, 2007

Euro is still under short-term downward pressure..Same goes for commodities..Not the right time to start buying commodities or Euro yet..But bargain will be there in coming days..And down the road this year,expecting to see new low of Dollar since 2004 and new high of Gold since 2006..More talk than trading this week..

PAR 16:11 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Expect japanese capital outflows to continue independent of unlikely rate hike . Looks like Nikkei could drop sharply and this will bring USDJPY to 125.00.

saloniko nk 16:06 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:54 GMT January 11, 2007

Only Gold God know...lol

U see that Zorro said that 2007 will be difficult to Buy Euro below 1.30? (example)

Nervous position traders sometimes in my opinion,move some small markets.That make nervous some others...and they lose the target...
That could huppen to everyone..

nk

Madrid mm 16:02 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Goldman Sachs is one powerful firm. The powerhouse firm recently cut the energy exposure in a some widely followed subindexes to its main futures index. Big investors who invest passively according to the index promptly adjusted their positions. The result was a sell-off that seemed to push spot prices lower--the sharpest two-day decline in years. This is not all that uncommon. Last year, Goldman reconfigured the index by cutting out a Nymex unleaded gasoline contract. That led to selloff in gasoline. Fortunately, these indexes are not frequently adjusted, so there is no reason to think there will be a lot of Goldman-induced volatility ahead.

nypost.com

The Netherlands Purk 16:02 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Gold coast Martin 12:07 GMT December 20, 2006
Philadelphia Caba 11:49 GMT December 20, 2006
Caba...the september post on the carry trades has nothing to do with the "turining point" i mentioned on a long post 3 weeks ago aabout the turning point of the euro/usd. If you read that poart you will what i mean by looking at the pattern on euro/usd for the past 3 weeks....( load and uload scenario until 128 heading into years end) this is still valid. .The september carry trade post was was just a comment on carry trade flow pattern that occured until we get carry trade liquidation heading into years end....if you remember the kiwi trade from 73 to 59 13 months go ,,,same pattern lol....YestErdays post on euro/yen, aud a dn nzd having good R.R from current levels is still valid...g.t ..
Yes AB caf dollar is an indicaror....

Well i think this man deserves some more credit as well. And he already did that in december.

Gen dk 16:02 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY RP 15:57 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Fron row seats to Dollar bull party. I must say I am surprised, but with all the negativity in teh Dollar a move like this is warranted. Gecko is the man and what a wonderful call. GL

The Netherlands Purk 15:55 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Well, push was there, i dont think it will retreat that much, but i guess tomorrow we shall have an appointment with 12000.

hk ab 15:54 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
nk, do you think gold north train will start above 600 or below 600?

saloniko nk 15:52 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Van Gecko..

Happy N.Year....healthy and Lucky...


nk

Makassar Alimin 15:43 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 15:34 GMT January 11, 2007

well done gecko, you were just absolutely correct with euro 1.2888 when others were calling for 1.36, how i wish i had patience and "sight" like you have in this forex sea, good trades!

The Netherlands Purk 15:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Well usd/jpy's final touch may be given when e/j retreats

manchester 15:39 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
nk, what times scales on 112.50-114?

saloniko nk 15:36 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Good evening..


ab, my opinion is on $/cad that will see a move around 1.1250-1.14

Will see if this hold..
If not then till the end of year might will see another parity,another correction of $, and GOLD around 780/oz for the final move to target 1200+ next years , and Euro 1,40.

nk

van Gecko 15:34 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Bingo! after 1.2888, 1.2788 is within the new year train's ATR..

mtl J'Pipski 1.2488..

warsaw TOMi 15:29 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
to catt 15:24 GMT January 11, 2007

will ask jay for yr email and if you cud send me the link there.

warsaw TOMi 15:27 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
delray beach RMN 15:22 GMT January 11, 2007

well,I am not mastering this pair,frankly i just bot it yesterday,cos I felt it wud break the 120,so my target was for about 60 pips,made more than that and I'm happy with it.

maybe purk might add something more of a value or other masters of yen,I specialize with cable and €uro, gt to you.

to catt 15:24 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
this was the little run wait for the big one
1hr chart run , i posted the map on forexnews , if u wanna take a look

delray beach RMN 15:22 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Warsaw what are your current projections on this USD/jpy move do you see this to continue or retest the 188-119 arena? thoughts appreciated

warsaw TOMi 15:20 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
yeah,I know,but sweated today on BIG jump earlier on, 100 pips enough,call it a day,tomorrow will be another 8-)

Vilnius 15:19 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
cover short gbp/jpy 233.64(234.50)

to catt 15:18 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
warsaw tomik , too quick , cable 98 is the R2 , this may be the end of the run

wyborg grey wolf 15:14 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd cross 1.29?

warsaw TOMi 15:12 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
squared €/$ at 2905 from 2958 and 1.3005.

squared cable at 9420 from 9521.

squared usdyen at 120.44 from 11966.

too much for me for tdy..

gl/gt.

Mtl JP 15:12 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 14:53 - and the bone ?

van Gecko 15:12 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
barking or not, their repective currencies are indeed vely nice new year dogs..

PAR 15:01 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
ECB and BOJ are very similar. Both barking dogs which dont bite .

van Gecko 14:53 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
1.2888 is the butter with 1.2738 being the meat..

Syd 14:52 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
More EUR Weakness Ahead...
With ECB meeting out of the way, attention is back to the big development of the past weeks - reduced Fed rate cut expectations, says Meg Browne of BBH. "The June euribor/eurodollar spread has widened almost 10bp this week in favor of the dollar. With the euro's brief overnight correction now ended, a clear break of the 1.2930 level (the 50% retracement of the euro's rally from October) opens 1.2825," she writes in note. Currently EUR/USD at $1.2926

Syd 14:41 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Royal Bank of Scotland has just issued a Technical Trade Alert to buy GBP/NZD. The bank says the recent recovery above the 2.80 channel top confirms a significant low at 2.7535. Now at 2.8160, support at 2.80 or 2.7840 should contain any corrective weakness while topside a move above the 2.8275-2.8365 resistance zone will target 2.8735

Madrid mm 14:36 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trichet Says Expectations for Further ECB Rate Rise Justified

By John Fraher

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said investors' expectations for a further interest-rate increase in March are probably justified as inflation risks in the 13-nation euro region increase.

Forecasts for a move in March ``don't seem to me aberrant on the present level of my information,'' Trichet said at a briefing in Frankfurt. The ECB's key rate, which it today left at 3.5 percent, remains ``low'' after six increases since the start of December 2005 and ``acting in a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability in the medium term is warranted.''

Syd 14:25 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Bird Flu Suspected At Western Japan Poultry Farm - Kyodo


TOKYO (AP)--Japan's Agriculture Ministry has received reports of a suspected outbreak of bird flu at a poultry farm in western Japan, a news report said late Thursday.

The outbreak is suspected at a poultry farm in the western Miyazaki prefecture, Kyodo News agency reported, citing ministry sources.

Miyazaki prefecture authorities are investigating, Kyodo said

manchester 14:23 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
van gecko, im sure USD/CAD will correct a little first. got my long orders ready for euro/$ 12880

Syd 14:22 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Never Pre-Commit On Medium-Term Basis
European president Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday that the ECB does not precommit to future interest rate movements. Speaking in the question and answer session at a press conference, Trichet said that "we never precommit on a medium term basis to do things or not to do things in two months three months time." Trichet also noted that he did not mention the word "vigilance" in the introductory statement, following the ECB's decision to leave all key interest rates unchanged. The word "vigilance" in the past has been a strong signal that the ECB would raise interest rates its next rate-setting council meeting, which would be in early February. Thursday's introductory statement was "very, very close" to December's statement, Trichet said.

Cannes Oil man 14:21 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Huge volatility on the day.

hong kong seek 14:20 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
any view on e/g pls ?many ths

van Gecko 14:19 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Usd/Jpy above 120.. the Euroo now 40 pips from lucky 1.2888.. looks like some of those 'Dollar Bear Brigade' members are rushing to be head of the Dollar Bull class after their lesson from 2004..

manchester.. better odds for the Dollar to 'zoom' up to 1.24 then down to 1.14..

AZUSA 4X-ed 14:13 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Bies may be a bit underrated at this point?

Syd 14:06 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 13:56 GMT yes i read it

Sydney ACC 13:56 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:42 GMT January 11, 2007
There was an article in yesterdays Telegraph at prime residential prooperty prices in London had tripled over the last ten years. Average price for a house had gone from approx GBP 1.4 mill to GBP 4.2 mill.

While the increase was a surprise, only one analyst got it right there was unanimity for the move next month. The degree of the move in GBP/USD surprises me therefore. Looks like it is retracing some of that gain now however

The Netherlands Purk 13:55 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
usd/jpy, seen 12040, same riddle like yesterday, now 12067-12088, but somewhere there will be a correction..... think it is between 12050 and 60... so moved s/l of my short at 12067. isnt this great?

manchester 13:54 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
thanks, Im short 11750-60. hoping it zooms down

hong kong seek 13:53 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
amazing g/j ranged 400 pips today...

PAR 13:52 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Looks like no ECB rate hike before French presidential elections.

london PK 13:51 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd, prices stalled in 2005 but increased 10% last year. UK citizens are property mad, good for me but think a little crazy sometimes. still think there will be some correction soon. Im looking at 1 or 2 more rises before it stabalises at 5% again sometime next year but you never know.

Cannes Oil man 13:47 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
1.1810 (the daily double top).

manchester 13:42 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko, can u advise a resistance level on $/CAD

Syd 13:42 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
london PK 13:38 hi, have been talking about this for sometime many as you well know just gone crazy buying houses to renovate, think we will see tops around 6% next year cos dont see this stopping it just slowing it

Philadelphia Caba 13:41 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trichet:
ECB interst rates still at low levels

AZUSA 4X-ed 13:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Translation please!? lol

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:28 GMT
market should be longing Pound since the rate differential is now at equilibrium... 5.25 on both sides
but who knows - EUR and GBP were up trending when the differential was USD positive..

van Gecko 13:39 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Chicago bulls loves Dollar/Canada! ;))

Syd 13:39 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Jobless Claims Fall 26k, Strong Labor Market

london PK 13:38 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
SYD, Im actually a mortgage broker and already got clients calling me!!

Cannes Oil man 13:38 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
TP on GBP .

The Netherlands Purk 13:37 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
usd/jpy still wants to go up, i am adjusting s/l to tight.... i guess it wants to go up. If s/l is taken i will try again, depends what time it is....

Syd 13:36 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   

Shock as UK rates rise to 5.25%

The news will come as an unwelcome surprise to many homeowners. It will add £16 to the monthly payments of those with a £100,000 repayment mortgage.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6251963.stm

manchester 13:33 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
any opinions on USD/CAD, will this break 118?

Syd 13:32 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
DJ US Jobless Claims -26K To 299K In Jan 6 Wk; Survey -9K
US Jobless Claims At Lowest Level Since Jul 22
US Dec 30 Week Continuing Claims -3K to 2,428,000
US Jobless Claims -26K To 299K In Jan 6 Wk; Survey -9K

cal keshav 13:29 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Bank of England hiked the interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%. This is the highest level of interest rate in more than five and a half years. The central bank said, "The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.25%." The rate hike was made as the annual inflation hit a high of 2.7% on year in November which was the above the annual inflation target of 2%. After the news hit the markets the dollar weakened against the GBP and was quoting at 1.9512, showing a change of 1%. EURO also strengthened its position against dollar. Dollar was quoting at 1.2985 against Euro

Mtl JP 13:28 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
13:30GMT - U.S. initial claims data (expectaion: 320K)

likely to have only a tiny market impact, IF any.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:22 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
US Unempl Cons 318k Vs 329k last - however Trichet news conference maybe will attract more attn..

AZUSA 4X-ed 13:21 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:19 GMT January 11, 2007 ||| I have 320k

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:19 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
excuse me - can someone post Cons vs. last Unempl figures for US - 13:30 GMT?

Madrid mm 13:09 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
OPEC President Says $53 Oil Is `Unacceptable,' Urges Compliance With Cuts
bloomberg.com

Madrid mm 13:08 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
don t you just love this GBP/YEN pair !!!!!

Madrid mm 13:04 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Soon the Trichet Show Live !!!!

How many time the expression "Strong vigilance " is going to be used ? lol

Madrid mm 13:03 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:21 GMT January 11, 2007

i have to admit, ECB independance is not what it seems !!
lol

Gentlemen's club with Trichet , Junker, Barosso !!! LOL

What a funny world !!!

Gen dk 13:03 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manchester 12:54 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
oil man, where do you see resistance for $/CAD?

Makassar Alimin 12:49 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
MMM, hope you manage to catch the move...i am happy for you if you do, you can place your stop now around 1.9425 and go do whatever you like for the rest of the day

Makassar Alimin 03:48 GMT January 11, 2007
NY MMM 03:40 GMT January 11, 2007

flat with it at the moment...however if it trades above 1.94 from here, you can consider going long with stop under today's low

London JBS 12:47 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
ECB unchanged

Gen dk 12:45 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Soifa Kaprikorn 12:44 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
toronto 12:42 GMT
first go to brokers section on the home page - if you need more help e-mail to [email protected]

chicago hl 12:44 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
perfect storm today

Philadelphia Caba 12:43 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
SNB ROTH: Comments on the wires from SNB's Roth
- Interest rate normalising phase not done yet
- Biggest risk to growth scenario is reversal of financial market
euphoria
- Swiss economic dynamics are so strong that strong growth will
certainly continue into 2007
- Repeats expects growth around 2% in 2007 after around 3% in 2006
- Global conditions very positive for Swiss growth
- Weaker franc interferes with goal of price stability through import
prices
- If fundamentals came into play again, franc correction could be strong
- Franc is moving contrary to fundamental data
- Franc has "no safe haven appeal" at moment due to financial market
euphoria
(mni)

toronto 12:42 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
How to choose the broker?

Hello everybody! I choose the broker-firm at the moment, to give them my money...
I saw www.forex-ratings.com, Can I trust them?

And How correctly to choose the broker?
tell me please!
Katy

Dublin Flip 12:41 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
ROFL

NY Dr. Ruth 12:34 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
forex market reminds me a lady who tries to get pregnant through the anal way. finally she will go the natural way, forex market too.

Vilnius 12:34 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
go short gbp/jpy 234.50

wyborg grey wolf 12:32 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD is getting higher now,any forecast?

The Netherlands Purk 12:27 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Ah usd/jpy is back from where it came from... now we have to see if 12040 holds. I have a range of 100+ so let us see...

AZUSA 4X-ed 12:25 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Anyone willing to put a price on CHF's pressure point?

PAR 12:25 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Buy hiking rates BOE is trying to attract more capital to the UK and enhance Londons role as the worlds first financial center . Well done .

St. Annaland Bob 12:22 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:21 GMT January 11, 2007
Imho.If Trichet hikes rates today he is out of a job.

maybe he will get out of job, but rates will be higher.

PAR 12:21 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Imho.If Trichet hikes rates today he is out of a job.

wyborg grey wolf 12:16 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
ECB same what about comments?

St. Annaland Bob 12:15 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   

LOL

BC (AKA Rotten Capitalist from Shanghai) cannot be so wrong, he may miss targets by few pips and also by few days, but that gentleman is not wrong.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:11 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
UK: BOE MPC hikes repo rate 25 basis points to 5.25%

Bank rate or just repo rate or both?

Cannes Oil man 12:09 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
ECB same...

Gen dk 12:09 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dublin Flip 12:09 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
fxq professional analysts mostly just talking their own book as well I think mate. It might be elaborate justifications at time but I think most base their positioning on what is considered (at least by themselves) as a considered view.

e.g. It's amazing how many of a bank's technical and/or fundamental recommendations come out after some smart money (CB-like) has come across the flows analysis guys -LOL

Athens MK 12:08 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: target 2 hit at 1.9514. Been waiting for this several days now. Looking for the third target at 1.9560 to be touched as well.

GLGT

AZUSA 4X-ed 12:07 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
A rather fitting quote for some of us: "nevermind the cheese, just get me out of the trap!"

PAR 12:06 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Waw . BOE really is like former Bundesbank .

Cannes Oil man 12:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
No surprise here..Watch the next one.

Philadelphia Caba 12:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
UK: BOE MPC hikes repo rate 25 basis points to 5.25%
- Most analysts had forecast no change, short sterling market was only pricing a 25% chance of a hike.

Syd 12:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Bank Of England Raises Bank Rate To 5.25% From 5.0%

Vancouver Mike 12:04 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 11:51 GMT

Thank you. The two lower highs, the failed attempts at 1.1800 have me thinking along those lines as well. Should be fast and hard as usual, but 1.1466 is quite the prediction though. If you're right I think I will give you some money to trade, ha ha.

London JBS 12:01 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
B of England +25 big surprise!!!

warsaw TOMi 12:00 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
usdyen stop shifted to 12000 mark profit area.

Makassar Alimin 11:59 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
teh is god! :) stops brought to entry on usdjpy long, consider SAR if it is taken

RIC fxq 11:57 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 11:07 GMT

actually in judging your observations vs those of most professional analysts it appears you are simply talking your book.

Gen dk 11:51 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cannes Oil man 11:51 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
I see $/CAD still going DOWN..It's been trying to do so for awhile now, with enormous pressure building up on the downside stops..
The moment it does it will be fast and furious.
If however e$ does not find the bottom today, chances are high that it stays relatively stable (like in the past few days).

Melbourne Qindex 11:47 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
manchester 11:33 GMT - EUR/GBP : Today's downside targets are 0.6667 and 0.6680.

BEIRUT MK 11:46 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
HOLD LONG USDJPY AT 119.09 TARGET 121+

manchester 11:33 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, do you see EUR/GBP coming down to those levels. has been trading in tight ranges for some time. isnt it risky shorting untill we get a clear break below 6690?

Vancouver Mike 11:32 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes, I know you're not obligated to answer questions, but what questions will you answer and what question won't you answer. Thank you.

Melbourne Qindex 11:30 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:44 GMT January 10, 2007
USD/CHF : the current expected trading range is 1.2404 - 1.2470 - 1.2536


Melbourne Qindex 03:49 GMT January 11, 2007
USD/CHF : The market is going to consolidate between 1.2446 - 1.2481 for the time being. 1.2437 is a good entry and the upside targeting range is 1.2517 - 1.2524.

Melbourne Qindex 11:28 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:06 GMT January 11, 2007
EUR/CHF : the short term targeting point is 1.6164.

Melbourne Qindex 04:01 GMT January 11, 2007
EUR/CHF : the market is expected to consolidate between 1.6120 - 1.6157. A projected resistant level is located at 1.6182 - 1.6193.

Melbourne Qindex 11:27 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:30 GMT January 10, 2007
EUR/GBP : A projected resistant level has been established at [0.6731]*. the market will tackle the barrier at 0.6628 // 0.6695*.

Melbourne Qindex 11:26 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:15 GMT January 10, 2007
GBP/CHF : A barrier is located at 2.4152.

Melbourne Qindex 08:14 GMT January 10, 2007
GBP/CHF : Heading Towards 2.4232.

teh 11:20 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Short USD/CAD 11725
Good portfolio buying of Canadian dollars versus the
JPY this morning has seen the Canadian yield play come
back into focus to a limited degree.

Canadian dollar has been the
weakest of the G7 currencies over the past 3 months.
Now it looks as if some profit taking may kick in on
this one and a sharp move higher could be seen before
the Bank of Canada rate decision due next week.

Dublin Flip 11:11 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR Europe is largely unchanged against most Asian currencies over the past two years with one major exception being yen. From my GVI post just now.....

Dublin Flip 11:08 GMT January 11, 2007
Despite the official myopia around China the Japanese Yen has perenially been depreciating against it's Asian cousins (and the dollar of course).

YEN is …
Down 24% agst CNY (RBM)
Down 20% agst IDR
Down 27% agst KRW
Down 25% agst MYR
Down 30% agst PHP
Down 23% agst SGD
Down 25% agst THB

over the past two years

Cannes Oil man 11:07 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
LDN LDN 10:53 GMT January 11, 2007

We could discuss for hours , without showing tangible points..
I can say the 100% reverse and even say it's why the US$ went firmer for start of year..Can also say it's CB's taking profits (with no correlation with Interest rates) , we have no way of prooving what we advance.
I see interest differential reducing as positive for the Euro.

van Gecko 10:55 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
121+ in the Dollar's new year sight..
Usd/Jpy Singapore Sling @1/11

LDN LDN 10:53 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes. Reduced risk of Fed rate cut is one reason why the usd has started the year firmer.

Vancouver Mike 10:51 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 10:39 GMT /// Hello, What is your outlook for CAD after having digested yesterdays and todays news/events. Do you really think 1.1466 and how do you justify? Thanks for your help.

PAR 10:50 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trichet may indicate Euro is overvalued against asian currencies and especially against the yen since european theoretical studies are indicating EURJPY purchasing power parity is close to 100 instead of the actual 156 . European car manufacturers (except technological superior BMW and Mercedes) are suffering from cheap japanese competition .

Cannes Oil man 10:49 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trichet will hint at further rate hike , while the market thinks USA is going to CUT (i think market is completly wrong on this , however that isn't the question of today) ..E$ will move upside very strongly on the day , if it's perceived USA is going to cut , while Trichet hints at hikes..boom boom...(and if surprise hike...it's double boom boom).

gl gt

Global-View Research 10:48 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - The yen fell half a percent to breach the psychologically important level of 120 against the dollar for the first time in 13 months on Thursday as expectations of a Japanese rate rise next week receded.

The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates to 0.5 percent at its Jan. 17-18 meeting but the market is starting to take the view that recent Japanese data made a rate rise less likely.

Japan's diffusion index of leading indicators fell on Thursday to a preliminary 20.0 in November from a revised 54.5 in October.

"The market is coming round to the idea that the BOJ may not raise rates on Jan. 18, and if they do, the conditions do not really warrant it and the rate rise is going to be the last for some time," said Derek Halpenny, currency economist at BTM-UFJ.

Japanese Vice Finance Minister Hideto Fujii said disorderly moves in the currency market were undesirable....see full report

pleven op 10:48 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
hello

Gen dk 10:47 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 10:45 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Thank for thanks?

Usually when a high breaks the potential to go up is much more than thought of, so i guess we are going to see 12088 as well, or there are some big parties shorting.

Madrid mm 10:43 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
thank you Global-View 10:41 GMT January 11, 2007

The Netherlands Purk 10:43 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Right, range did it in usd/jpy, but i merely think this move is to thank for thanks to e/j and beastyboy.
I have taken a short here for 11916ish..
Might see a lot more but well that is trading....

Madrid mm 10:42 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
ah there you are FX forum..... Impossible to log in for the last 45-60 minutes... am i the only one ? i am asking as it maybe coming from my pc

I guess PAR has been vindicated 8-) Well done PAR

to catt 10:42 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
hey warsaw tomi , how you doin?

Global-View 10:41 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
We had a rare server issue but it has been resolved. Our apologies for the interruption.

Cannes Oil man 10:39 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
We could see 1.3080 today on E$ , 1.9510 on GBP$.
Stops to entry on GBP$ , waiting BOE decision.

Melbourne Qindex 07:52 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to vibrate around 1.2915 with an expected magnitude of 1.2865 - 1.2964 for the time being.

nicosia y d 07:48 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD's fall from 1.3052 extended further to 1.2930 in the forex world.
but downside momentum is still unconvincing as EUR/USD approaches 1.2922 cluster support what do you think about the trend?

warsaw TOMi 07:41 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
shorted cable 9344

shorted €uro/$ 2958.

Melbourne Qindex 07:30 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is expected to consolidate between 119.25 - 120.01. A projected resistant point is expected at 120.34. Speculative selling will increase if the market can trade below 118.61.

Madrid mm 07:17 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY hit highs.Former Econs Minister Heizo Takenaka, in Reuters interview, says from an economist's point of view, an interest rate hike by BoJ in January this month will not be appropriate, given current economic conditions.

zurich 07:07 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
las vegas,

whats the level for euro/usd today if it tanks. ths

Aus Stu 07:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Alright, that's it! Given up shorting u/j for now, time for patience and discipline (still not my strong points but I'm getting better). Still have BOJ's words ringing in my ears from last May when u/j was 109, then they said they were happy if it stayed between 110 & 120. Since then it hasn't looked backwards, lets see how far they will let it go. Time for a bit of KL's ninja tactics methinks, lurking in bushes & waiting to pounce.

Gt

warsaw TOMi 07:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
amm yes.. squared half usdyen at 11987. stop moved to 11944.

Las Vegas DJS 07:03 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR is going to tank!

Madrid mm 06:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Yuan Advances Past Hong Kong Dollar, First Time in 13 Years

By Jake Lee and Yumi Teso

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The yuan rose past the Hong Kong dollar for the first time in 13 years, underlining China's economic ascent and fueling debate over whether to scrap the city's exchange-rate link to the U.S. dollar.

China's yuan climbed to as much as 1.0001 per Hong Kong dollar, and advanced 0.14 percent to 7.7963 to the U.S. currency at 13:21 p.m. in Shanghai, the biggest gain in six weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Netherlands Purk 06:36 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Wouw what a man that Miz, predicting usd/jpy while it is trading 20 pips ahead....
range will bring us far above the 120 today... i dont see large sell orders...

Syd 05:36 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY 120 Breach "Matter Of Days" - Mizuho
With USD/JPY slowly climbing, eclipsing 120.00 "a matter of days," could happen as early as later in global session, says Mizuho Corporate Bank senior market economist Masaki Fukui; given broadly USD-bullish sentiment, expects players to try to lift pair despite large sell orders sitting at 119.70-120.00. Says while BOJ may hike rates next week, that alone won't stop pair's upward trend as pace of Japan credit tightening will be slow

Sydney ACC 05:15 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Full list of economic risks

World Economic Forum urges increased readiness for disaster
Risks which have increased in the past year:

• Oil price shock/energy supply interruptions
• US current account deficit/fall in US$
• Chinese economic hard landing
• Fiscal crises caused by demographic shift
• Blow up in asset prices/excessive indebtedness
• Climate change
• Loss of freshwater services
• Natural catastrophe: Tropical storms
• Natural catastrophe: Inland flooding
• International terrorism
• Proliferation of WMD
• Interstate and civil wars
• Failed and failing states
• Retrenchment from globalization
• Middle East instability

Risks which have remained stable:

• Natural catastrophe: Earthquakes
• Transnational crime and corruption
• Breakdown of critical information infrastructure (CII)
• Emergence of risks associated with nanotechnology
• Pandemics
• Infectious diseases in the developing world

Experts disagree over whether risks have intensified:

• Chronic disease in the developed world
• Liability regimes

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/11/cnecon11.xml

Melbourne Qindex 04:36 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is expected to consolidate between 1.9255 - 1.9343. A projected resistant point is located at 1.9369. The downside targeting level is 1.9165 - 1.9170. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.9134.

Melbourne Qindex 04:26 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:22 GMT - We have to wait for the weekly closing data and see how it goes.

Zurich 04:25 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Thanks a lot for the analysis Dr Q. GT

USA BAY 04:22 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

With the analysis, is the chf crosses still a buy or some more downside is expected. Thanks

Syd 04:21 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
MS Flags Bubble In China Fincl Stks
Morgan Stanley latest to warn of risks in Chinese financials saying "we think Chinese banks and insurers are among the biggest equity bubbles in the financial world currently". Notes, banks with PB of 3.5X, insurers with PB of 7.1X have even higher valuations than what U.S. players saw in late 1990s. Adds financials likely to lead overall market's de-rating in 2007 in both offshore, onshore markets. Also says underweight in materials, properties due to their cyclical nature, overweight in telecoms, consumer staples, technology, services as they are consumer-based; neutral on oil, but overweight airlines

Melbourne Qindex 04:20 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : The market is expected to consolidate between 2.4024 - 2.4131. Projected barriers are expected at 2.4049 and 2.4091. The upside targeting level is 2.4238 - 2.4256.

Melbourne Qindex 04:06 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : the short term targeting point is 1.6164.

Melbourne Qindex 04:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : the shirt term targeting point is 1.6164.

Melbourne Qindex 04:01 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : the market is expected to consolidate between 1.6120 - 1.6157. A projected resistant level is located at 1.6182 - 1.6193.

Melbourne Qindex 03:57 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY, 03:53 GMT - I will post USD/JPY later today.

USA BAY, 03:53 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

DrQ, If it is possible would appreciate it if you could give your analysis on USD/JPY. Thanks

Singapore GFX 03:51 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Makaskar Alimin,

Ok, I am also with you and Teh, lets go mini 1 lot usd/jpy.

Melbourne Qindex 03:49 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is going to consolidate between 1.2446 - 1.2481 for the time being. 1.2437 is a good entry and the upside targeting range is 1.2517 - 1.2524.

Makassar Alimin 03:48 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
NY MMM 03:40 GMT January 11, 2007

flat with it at the moment...however if it trades above 1.94 from here, you can consider going long with stop under today's low

Cannes Oil man 03:42 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
London 03:40 GMT January 11, 2007

I HAD 87 ..Removed them at entries earlier(look GVI), only kept my lowest entries , wish i had kept it all , but the up move took me by surprise.

Cannes Oil man 00:30 GMT January 11, 2007
Stops to entries on $CHF 1.2470 short...
Removing first entry on AUD$ at entries (when seen 7787 , keeping lowest 7765).
gl

NY MMM 03:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
alimin:
read your post last time .. nice trade on +80 pip gbp

still holding any position on cable?

London 03:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man
thought you longed at Long ozi 7787

Melbourne Qindex 03:40 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
NY MMM 03:37 GMT - I will post GBP/USD after I finish with USD/CHF and its crosses.

Makassar Alimin 03:38 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
teh 21:06 GMT January 10, 2007

ok teh, you convinced me, we share the same stop loss level so i am giving your theory a try with 1 mini lot, long usdjpy 119.65, let's go...125 first target

NY MMM 03:37 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
qindex:

whats your view on cable today?

thanks

Cannes Oil man 03:10 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Nice little puppy this OZI..
Stops to entry on 7765 Longs , let's see where it wants to go..No T/P..just let the puppy fly.

Looks like EY 154.50 might be a low for awhile..

Rye,NY et 02:29 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...The market has been trading the internal trendlines of a Bearish Channel consistently since last week. With today's opening, I would expect the market to trade in both directions, first up to 13060, then down to 12880. There is, however, a problem at 12880. It is the exact intersection of both a major Bearish Channel Trendline and a major Bullish Channel Trendline (extended from the previous Short-term Uptrend). If the market trades through that level, then the Short-term bias remains to the downside. If it bounces, however, it may mean a return to the Bearish Channel midpoint or the decending Resistance Line OR it may mean a return to the Uptrend. Time, of course, and the market will tell...Just my read of my charts...GL/GT

Melbourne Qindex 02:26 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:11 GMT January 11, 2007
Gold (London PM Fix) : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 646.3. A projected resistant level is positioning at 633.3 - 633.7. A projected barrier is located at 614.0. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 591.6. A projected supporting level has been established at 570.9 - 572.8. Sell on rallies is still the preferred trading strategy.

Cannes Oil man 02:07 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Posted on GVI:

Cannes Oil man 21:19 GMT January 10, 2007
Sold 1.2470 SL 1.2510 , TP 1.2380..($CHF).
---
Though i might keep it and look for much more , IF e$ starts breaking topside (1.3020)...Stops to entry now.
gl gt

Cannes Oil man 02:05 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Ab, just need to be in the right direction and increase leverage when it goes the right way..

E$ is ready to bottom , however if not here , and 1.29 gets broken the next area is 1.2720...However we could be bottoming here, with the next target at 1.3487.
A lot of signs are here :

-CHF looking to strenghten.
-YEN hike coming in soon...The watch is ticking and it will change something in participants bias.
-CB's and major's are STILL looking to long E$ , key is to know if this is the right area , or it is 1.2720.
-Gold 600 good support.
-Oil down majorly.
-My book talking.
gl gt

OTTAWA mjw 02:03 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
i would like to thank oilman for the call on $/chf, though i was looking to short at the days high level but left my computer , came back,, bang ! 20 pips ,, O well next trade...

hk ab 01:41 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
I have exited all positions as mentioned in future F last night.
Due to computer problem, I will suspend my trading until that's resolved. No charts and quotes made me censored on trading.

I think XAU and XAG mkts are smaller, definitely the "buy the rumour, sell the fact" strategy used well for me. Apology to those misled these few weeks.

For euro front, I think one should mark the following points down.

1) daily chart, we are now at the breakout point made by HF.
2) as oilman mentioned last night, dlr/chf and dlr/jpy look sick and both pairs seem are fortelling something unexpected..
3) We could have surprises from BOE and ECB today.

So, all in all, be stringent till end of Jan as this is quite sensitive towards both ends. Use lower leverage is a good strategy.

Copper keeps rising with Crude diving... make gold very interesting. I only see one thing in it which is, the daily range on gold seems contracting. Big guys on both ends?

Syd 01:26 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Stronger-than-expected Australian jobs growth in December has prompted FX traders to reach for the "joy button", say Westpac currency strategists. AUD/USD sprang through 0.7800 on news of 44,600 news jobs in December, move expected to extend to 0.7835; pair now 0.7811. Still view AUD/USD as a sell on strength but data clearly suggest holding back for higher levels to sell.

NY RP 01:08 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
January will end very good for those with realistic views. I am most confident that by Feb 1 the dollar will have made a top and Gold a bottom. In my opinion what we are witnessing is a formation of a base that will surprise many. The FX markets have been lackluster to say the least for a while now. When the currency markets trend, the world knows it. I am excited as the Dollar bulls are playing with matches at the fuel station. Have a look at the dollar index as it approaches stiff resistance at 84.50 to 8500 and Gold slightly below the figure.
Good luck.

Syd 00:56 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
'Tis The Season To Buy Dollars
By Martin Fluck LONDON

The dollar may be about to rebound against the euro even if sizable U.S. housing inventories leave some doubt over how mild the slowdown in the U.S. economy will prove in 2007.

The rebound could happen soon if the high level of net speculative short dollar positions, built up in the latter part of 2006, are reversed now that the dollar's seasonal winter has passed.

Extremes in net speculative positions are a pretty good a signal to take a contrarian view.

In addition, the repatriation of dollar funds out non-U.S. multinationals toward the end of the fiscal year is typically reversed in the first quarter, making January a strong month for the dollar for the past 15 years.

For the chartists, with the dollar having started the year strongly, the euro looks precariously placed in this context. A move through $1.2970 might see the single currency test $1.2480.

Fundamentally, analysts at banks such as Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse reckon the dollar is cheap because it's trading so far below its purchasing power parity, put at $1.06 against the euro.

Strong nominal and real interest-rate differentials also support the dollar - only countries like Australia, New Zealand and Iceland have higher interest rates that the U.S. - and these differentials are likely to be maintained.

That goes for euro zone too.

The ECB may be more likely to raise rates than the U.S., but investors were pricing in a U.S. slowdown for some time only to change their view now that the Federal Reserve has signaled rate cuts are less likely in the context of a strong U.S. jobs market and inflation worries. Last month, investors were was expecting 3 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the months ahead, but it is now only expecting one.

The euro-dollar exchange rate could also be supported by a liquidation of emerging market investments, the likelihood of which is growing as some commodity prices decline and as Thailand's military coup and capital controls remind investors of the risks they can ill afford to ignore in some developing economies.

Currencies and stock markets with commodity exposure like South Africa and Canada have already fallen victim to some New Year selling.

So safe-haven flows into dollar-denominated assets might be another reason why the dollar's weakness at the end of the 2006 could look like little more than a wobble.

Syd 00:37 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
DATA SNAP: Australian Dec Unemployment Rate 4.6% -2-


The bureau said its seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate, or the proportion of working-age persons at work or actively seeking work, rose to 64.9% in December from 64.8% in November.

The bureau's trend estimate for unemployment, which further smoothes the seasonally adjusted data, was 4.6% in December, the same as in November.

The total number of people employed was 10.34 million in December in seasonally adjusted terms, compared with 10.30 million in November.

The number of people in full-time work rose 17,700 to 7.38 million in December, from 7.36 million in November.

The number of people in part-time work rose 26,900 to 2.96 million in December, from 2.93 million in November.

zurich 00:25 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
melbourne qindex,

Dr Q, Could you pls post the analysis for gbp/chf, eur/chf and usd/chf when you have the time. thanks a lot

Syd 00:14 GMT January 11, 2007 Reply   
Deutsche Bank expects stronger than +15,000 consensus for Australian jobs in December to provide investors opportunity to take advantage of a post-jobs data bounce in AUD. Strategist John Horners says doesn't expect stronger jobs outcome to indicate prolonged period of AUD strength, providing investors with selling opportunity or to enter short AUD/USD and AUD/NZD trades. AUD/USD now off 6-week lows at 0.7773. Jobs data due 0030 GMT.