Forex Forum Archive for 01/14/2007

Syd 23:54 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Japan Nov Core Machinery Orders +0.7% On Year

Japan Nov Core Machinery Orders +3.8% On Month

Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:47 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Short term view: eur/usd pair very important today is the key resistance at 2940-50 and 3040-50 as the indicators bounce off the O/S levels. Look to sell in to failed bounces as long as the main resistance (3110-20) holds the bulls down for now IMHO. Peace and GT

Melbourne Qindex 23:29 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:40 GMT January 13, 2007
EUR/GBP (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is 0.6592 - 0.6609* - (0.6630). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 0.6592. The downside targeting points are 0.6545 and 0.6557. The upside targeting points are 0.6609 and 0.6626. 


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 0.6523* - 0.6540 // 0.6557* - 0.6574 - 0.6580 - [0.6592]* - 0.6603 - 0.6609 - 0.6626* // 0.6643 ... 0.6660* ...

Melbourne Qindex 23:28 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFX 23:23 GMT GBP/JPY : The market has a potential to vibrate around [236.46] with an expected magnitude of 228.74 - 244.19.

Melbourne Qindex 10:39 GMT January 13, 2007
GBP/JPY (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is 235.75* - 235.83 - (238.22). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 235.75. The upside targeting points are 236.85 and 237.52. The downside targeting points are 233.55 and 234.15.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 232.47* - 233.31 // 2234.15* - 234.99 - 235.27 - [235.84]* - 236.40 - 236.07 - 237.52* // 238.36 - 239.20* ...

Singapore GFX 23:23 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Could you please tell us where gbp/jpy is heading too when you have the time please. Thanks

wellington am 23:21 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
gbp/jpy - bearish div. on dailys.

Melbourne Qindex 23:10 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
CHF/AUD (Daily Cycle) :  The daily directional indicator is 1.0125 - 1.0196* - (1.0198). The market has a potential to head for 1.0125 if it can trade below (1.0198). The upside targeting points are 1.0258 and 1.0305. The downside targeting points are 1.0125 and 1.0088.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 0.9948* - 0.9992 // 1.0037* - 1.0081 - 1.0096 - [1.0125]* - 1.0155 - 1.0170 - 1.0214* //1.0258 - 1.0303* ...

Syd 23:04 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
UK tax fuels likely exodus
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/14/cntax14.xml

Melbourne Qindex 22:55 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : As long as it is trading below 0.6628 it has a potential to test the supporting strength of 0.6561*, see the monthly cycle charts of my website. A projected supporting point is expected at 0.6517. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.

Melbourne Qindex 22:52 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
HK_MACAU 22:47 GMT - EUR/GBP : As long as it is trading below 0.6628 it has a potential to test the supporting strength of 0.6561*, see the monthly cycle charts of my website. A projected supporting point is expected at 0.6517.

HK_MACAU 22:47 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Based on your analysis, could you please tell where eur/gbp is heading too. Thanks a lot.

Syd 22:34 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Bank Of Japan Set To Tighten Policy - Reports

The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates, Japanese newspapers reported on their Web sites Saturday.

Major dailies Asahi Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun, without quoting sources, said that a majority of the bank's nine policy board members are likely to vote for raising the policy rate to 0.5% from 0.25% during the meeting scheduled for Jan. 17-18.

In its previous meeting in December, the BOJ held off tightening policy because of concerns about domestic consumption and the U.S. economy.

But because recent economic data have shown that consumption remains on a rising trend and the U.S. economy is likely to achieve a soft landing, many board members are thinking that conditions for tightening have fallen into place, the dailies said.

The Asahi Shimbun said, however, the representatives of the Japanese government, which remains cautious about an early rate hike, might demand postponing a decision to raise rates.

The BOJ last raised interest rates in July 2006.

Melbourne Qindex 22:33 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Spot Gold : It will vibrate around [626.8] with an expected magnitude of 614.5 and 639.1.

Cannes Oil man 21:56 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Anyways , Stops to entries on ozi , nzd's ..
Waiting for E$ , and $chf signals (as posted none yet).
Back later .
gl gt

LKWD JJ 21:55 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
oil man any thoughts on cadjpy? nice double bottom on daily charts!!

Sydney ACC 21:47 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Has Trichet and the ECB backed themselves into a corner regarding the euro interest rate increase?
At last week’s press conference he hedged away from using his normal coded language of “vigilant” to indicate an increase was likely at the next meeting and this is more than likely in March.
In the meantime there is a growing view that over the next couple of months of financial data will undermine the need for an increase.
BHF indicated:
“Although the ECB president hinted at being in agreement with market expectations of an interest rate hike in March, this is not a foregone conclusion, as he himself has stressed repeatedly. We think there is a good chance that the reasons for a further interest rate rise in the EMU may no longer apply.”
And RBS
“At the March meeting, the ECB will have its new macro economic projections and thus plenty of material to discuss the rate outlook and make a fully informed decision. Expect the inflation projection for this year to be revised lower to below 2% and the growth projections to be kept unchanged. Put together this does not make a very strong case for raising rates at that meeting. Also, the first weak economic reports post VAT from Germany will become available. With the rest of the euro area having already slowed to a more moderate pace of growth, it is thus difficult to find a strong argument in favour of a rate rise that particular month.”
The French presidential and assembly elections may also preclude an increase later:
9th April – Official campaign starts
22nd April – First round elections
6th May – Second round elections
10th June – First round assembly elections
17th June – Second round assembly elections
Given both Sakorzy and Royal have spoken out already about ECB’s independence and its interest rate settings any increase in April and thereafter would be too politically explosive to contemplate.
Last week also the Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi spoke against the need for further interest rate increases.
If then interest rates are to increase given Trichet’s backing hedging of a Febraury increase the only window of opportunity is March, however, if the BHF and RBS view of benign inflationary data occurs the window could slam shut in March.
That US interest rates are more than likely to remain on hold, with only the possibility of one reduction later in the year remaining the yield foundations for the euro will be seriously undermined. The rhetoric emanating from ECB officials over the next month then becomes more important than ever adding probably greater volatility to the markets.

Philadelphia Caba 21:15 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:17 GMT January 14, 2007
Very simple but true I think ..although can be interesting watch usd/jpy if BOJ wont hike and $ will loose strength ...

san miniato AB 21:09 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
thanks Oil man, now i wait for tdb inflation data in just 2,30 hours later.

Cannes Oil man 21:04 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
san miniato AB 20:32 GMT January 14, 2007

I'm very bullish for the OZI...Very good news last week (employment), gold running higher (Have atm 625.X on my platform at open) , it should definitely make a run for .79xx during the week.

san miniato AB 20:32 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:17 GMT January 14, 2007
Hi Oil man, wud like to ask ur opinion abt aussie, if, as u said in the am post that this week cud see a reun to cover some short yen position, do u think that commodity ccies like aud and nzd wud and can be affected downwards. I entered on friday evening a short aud agst usd pos at 0,7820 with sl 0,7860 and 0,7780 profit. May i ask ur opinion abt this pls? tia

Cannes Oil man 20:28 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Of course GBP$ should even be a better mover from here, as i've said last week , STRONG BUY , and still a strong buy.
gl gt

Cannes Oil man 20:27 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
One must sometimes look behind the charts to the current market underlying.
Charts reflect past sentiments which change on a dime, market fundamentals , however do not..There is the same situation than we've had for monthes (7 years now actually) , of $ diversification and weakness ahead.
Break of 1.2870 negates the Risk reward (which is just 50 pips to the downside from here) with target at 1.34..

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:22 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
well anyhows.. i don't think 131 for now at least not before 125 first..

ttygl

gl gt

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:20 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
oil man// 12586 on euro is about prime, just look at the long term charts, last time we made such a moveup to 13660 was wayback in 2004 about 2 years considering that 2007 just started a few days back, just look at it intuitively...and do the honors.

13364-300= 13064,12764,12464,12164,11864 etc... these are all pivots...

like for example 13064,12764 = 12914...


gl gt.

Cannes Oil man 20:17 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
YEN:

Boj will be hiking or not this week , on wednesday..If it does market will probably have to run for cover and Buy Yen vs the dollar and most of the crosses.
It could be a big event , so something to really watch for.
If no hike market will probably continue on the current move (yen weakness)..
gl gt

Cannes Oil man 20:09 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Gold ready to continue it's move higher , support currently at 608-610 , next target 637, 645.

Cannes Oil man 20:08 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Hello,
Well euro is doing so far a very nice bottoming process.
On the 4H , it's looking better and better..It just needs to hold the last week lows , and during the week will reach 1.31 and finally 1.34 (week following)
The move above 1.2956 , followed by 1.30 , will be a good detonator for further upside.
We have for the last 32 hours (Market hours) been bottoming very nicely with a low test , followed by a quick repulsion of the downside (With Chinese CB, and Mid east CB buying).

The market last week after Trichet's speech was a bit Euro adverse , however market has a very short term memory..New week , new datas , market goes on.
Euro could make a very strong snapback from here, as it's totally stretched on ALL it's crosses , so upside could be VERY strong (just going back to 1.68 EUR/AUD , 6720 E£, E/NZD 1.8860 etc)..

GL GT.

to catt 19:32 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
For me, this rapid decline in metal prices during the first two weeks of 2007 supports the hypothesis that Chinese, Indian and other emerging markets demand was not the cause of rising metal prices in 2006, but that investment funds speculating in metals as a hedge against the US dollar were driving up metal prices. Partners of limited investment partnerships that sold positions in January will not have to pay income tax on the gains they made in metals until the beginning of the next quarter (if they file quarterly) or 2008 if they file their taxes annually. So by waiting until the first trading days of 2007 to sell they were able to lock in profits and defer taxes for as long as possible. If metal prices were being driven by demand from economic development we would not have seen this phenomenon.

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:42 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
mid-long term target is 12587

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:41 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
stay short euro's,

R 13030

cover at

S 12825-12765

Global-View 17:35 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Steve, see our signals offering forex signals

durham steve 16:56 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
can anyone recommend a good signal service provider? has anyone subscribed to one and been with them for more than a year. I do not mind paying upto 100 GBP a month.

Madrid mm 15:26 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Harvard's Feldstein Says Dollar `Too High to Be Sustained'

By Scott Lanman

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein said the dollar is vulnerable because of U.S. reliance on foreign government purchases of American securities, leaving the currency ``too high to be sustained.''

``The current high level of the dollar reflects some errors in understanding by the financial-market participants,'' Feldstein said during a panel discussion at the American Economic Association's annual meeting in Chicago today.

Click here

Madrid mm 15:25 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
China, Asean Sign Service Agreement to Start July 1 (Update3)

By Allen T. Cheng and Francisco Alcuaz Jr.

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- China signed a free-trade agreement covering 60 services industries with 10 Southeast Asian nations today, stealing the march on India which has been negotiating a similar deal for more than two years.

Click here

hk ab 14:11 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Dr. q, can you kindly comment on gold after Fri move?

nicosia y d 14:05 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Sterling staged a strong broad based rally in the forex market last week after the surprise rate hike from BoE.
Dollar was, indeed mixed as even though it rose against Euro and yen ,what do you think the reasons are?

Melbourne Qindex 13:44 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is 2.2814* - 2.2941 - (2.3192)). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 2.2814*. The upside targeting points are 2.3097 and 2.3224. The downside targeting points are 2.2609 and 2.2784.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 2.2627* - 2.2706 // 2.2784* - 2.2862 - 2.2888 - [2.2941]* - 2.2993 - 2.3019 - 2.3097* //2.3176 -  2.3254*...

Melbourne Qindex 13:18 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/AUD (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is 2.4885 - 2.4961* - (2.5033). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 2.4885. The upside targeting points are 2.5060 and 2.5200. The downside targeting points are 2.4709 and 2.4721.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 2.4534* - 2.4622 // 2.4709* - 2.4797 - 2.4826 - [2.4885]* - 2.4943 - 2.4973 - 2.5060* //2.5148 -  2.5236*...

Sydney ACC 11:32 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Karachi Pount/USD 07:53 GMT January 14, 2007
Last weeks increase in interest rates has certainly added some firmeness to sterling. It went into the Thursday morning at 1.9330 and finished the week at 1.9590 after reaching a high of 1.9605. In the meantime the euro weakened against the USD.
My view is that GBP is still in a range of 1.9190 to 1.9730. In the early part of the week i expect it to retain its strength on the back of the NYK holiday on Monday and the trend needs to play itself out. As we approch the release of US PPI and CPI the strength will begin to wane.
I am a USD bull notwithstanding central bank buying I see euro weakening to 1.23 by March to April. The ECB is running out of time to increase rates. By March i reckon the inflationary trends will be against an increase and then in April to June we will be faced with French elections. An issue I see only one person as so far alluded to.
My guess as to the range for teh week 1.9430 to 1.9680.
i would appreciate others comments.

Athens 11:27 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
A brief excerpt from Trendways weekly analysis:
"On the big picture the biggest threat for the Dollar still comes from Sterling. With cable being the only pair which has made a new long term USD low during the latest major USD downleg, with Sterling still benefiting from its higher interest rate comparative advantage and, finally, with the GBP feeding on the crosses, it would take a shocker selloff of the Pound across the board to shake out its fans and those looking for yield. The GBP crosses are potentially generating a particular problem for the USD considering their very long lasting and to a large extent overstretched trends. Therefore, if we are to see GBP cross corrections, only if they come via a softer cable there will be a broad benefit for the Dollar. In a contrary case i.e. if such corrections come through stronger EUR. CHF and JPY vs USD, I fail to see how the US currency can see better days. To give you a measure of Sterling's appreciation since March 2006 i.e. in about 10 months, it has gained about 15% vs USD, 6% vs EUR, 9% vs CHF and 16.5% vs JPY, in any case much more than what interest differentials would justify. No doubt interest differentials are not the sole determinant of a currency's appreciation or depreciation, far from that and I am the last one to base my trading decisions on this factor (and other fundamentals), however I still find the Pound a very overvalued currency and would remind you its notorious sharp and very fast plunges off the cliff when its fans decide to abandon the ship... In any case and for shorter term trading purposes I am sticking to my current technical conditions on the model which still call for selling cable rallies as the preferred strategy as long as we do not get a new (upside) model break."

The Netherlands Purk 09:41 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Karachi Pount/USD 07:53 GMT January 14, 2007

Is this a question or a demand?

Oakville 08:43 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Current situation EUR
yellow, green pointer - Fractal divergence for Stochastic
red pointer - Fractal divergence MACD
see censored http://fxstrategy.ca/h8-diver_EUR_USD.gif

Karachi Pount/USD 07:53 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
Can Any budy suggest me for Pound selling and buying against USD ..... give me a perticular range for buying and selling..... Regards Daleep

Melbourne Qindex 06:46 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY (Daily Cycle ) : - The daily directional indicator is 94.14* - 94.66 - (95.38). The market momentum is strong if it is trading above (95.38). The upside targeting points are 94.99 and 95.31. The downside targeting points are 93.29 and 94.01.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 93.36* - 93.69 // 94.01* - 94.34 -94.44 - [194.66]* - 94.88 - 94.99 - 95.31* // 95.64 - 95.96* ...

Melbourne Qindex 06:08 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY (Daily Cycle ) : - The daily directional indicator is 103.17* - 103.29 - (104.44). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 103.17*. The upside targeting points are 103.17 and 103.87. The downside targeting points are 101.68 and 102.71.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 102.14* - 102.43 // 102.71* - 103.00 -103.10 - [103.29]* - 103.48 - 103.58 - 103.87* // 104.15 - 104.44* ...

Melbourne Qindex 05:41 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY (Daily Cycle ) : - The daily directional indicator is (95.97) - 96.44 - 97.12. The market is under pressure when it is trading below (95.97). The upside targeting points are 96.90 and 97.96. The downside targeting points are 95.98 and 96.28.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 95.53* - 95.76 // 95.98* - 96.21 - 96.29 - [96.44]* - 96.59 - 96.67 - 96.90* // 97.13 - 97.35* ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:35 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is  1.6437 - (1.6492) - 1.6535*. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.6535*. The downside targeting points are 1.6332 and 1.6376. The upside targeting points are 1.6541 and 1.6694. 


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 1.6228* - 1.6280 // 1.6332* - 1.6385 - 1.6402 - [1.6437]* - 1.6471 - 1.6489 - 1.6541* // 1.6593 - 1.6645* ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:04 GMT January 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is  (1.6116) - 1.6123 - 1.6125*. The market is under pressure when it is trading below (1.6116). The downside targeting points are 1.6072 and 1.6088. The upside targeting points are 1.6159 and 1.6178. 


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 1.6052* - 1.6070 // 1.6088* - 1.6105 - 1.6112 - [1.6123]* - 1.6135 - 1.6141 - 1.6159* // 1.6177 - 1.6195* ...