Forex Forum Archive for 01/15/2007

Sydney ACC 23:54 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:45 GMT January 15, 2007
I wonder whether this is a case of the bank talking their own book or at least substantiating their predictions. UBS for months now have been calling a firmer JPY in spite of the weakness.

Philadelphia Caba 23:51 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS 18:16 GMT January 15, 2007
... usdjpy to explode this week as well, as whole planet knows that they will higher rates 123.50 first...

did you bet your house and wife on this trade?

Syd 23:45 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
With Japan officials so far unable to halt slide of JPY, which at lowest in a year vs USD, undermined by very low Japan rates, UBS says risk of verbal then actual intervention to rise if USD/JPY continues to overshoot 120.00: "historically Tokyo has warned the markets frequently before interventions. This year, investors should watch for renewed warnings that the authorities are prepared 'to take action' again." Don't forget Japan has $875 billion of FX reserves. Says renewed warnings vs JPY weakness mark important shift in stance from Tokyo, seem motivated by concerns a weak JPY, strong performance by exporters will reignite protectionist concerns in U.S., Europe, and that a weaker JPY will spur even more carry trades

Gen dk 23:37 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Poland Piotr 23:09 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw Tomi,

So gbp/jpy is expected to move up towards 240 without any major downside even with the rate hike from BOJ on the 18th?? Thanks

warsaw TOMi 22:48 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Poland Piotr 22:44 GMT January 15, 2007

there are many,first need to breach 240.90.

USA BAY 22:47 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

What do you think is the appropriate buy level for kiwi. 0.68xx seems good but wonder if that level will be printed again in the near future. What are your thoughts here. Thanks

Cannes Oil man 22:45 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:46 GMT January 15, 2007

Before going to .74 , it has to get to 71..it's right now consolidating the 6840--6990 level before moving on...It has moved quite rapidely from .65-70 (Look my buy .65 in nov//Dec) , and definitely needed a good consolidation before moving up again..
Same applies to most vs the $.
gl gt

Poland Piotr 22:44 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Warsaw Tomi,

What is the target for upside gbp/jpy please. Thank YOu

LKWD JJ 22:40 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
gfx probably stops above the high so if it gets above 36 it should keep moving. or wait for pullback as you mentioned but only buy if it breached the high, or else failure could send it MUCH lower.

Syd 22:39 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
NZ 4Q Confidence Won't Force Hike Next Wk -GS
While NZ's 4Q business confidence increases risk RBNZ will act on its previous hawkish rhetoric, prospect of further NZD appreciation, below trend economic growth and relatively benign near term inflation outlook means bank still likely to stand pat next week, says Goldman Sachs JBWere economist Shamubeel Eaqub. Adds QSBO survey showing activity indicators rebounding consistent with positive but below trend economic growth; adds renewed deterioration in labor shortages may concern RBNZ, though likely to take comfort from easing price pressures plus expectations CPI will print within bank's target range tomorrow.

warsaw TOMi 22:36 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Poland Piotr 22:31 GMT January 15, 2007

it's in an uptrend fm..

Poland Piotr 22:31 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone care to comment on GBP/JPY please. Appreciate it very much. Thank You.

Singapore GFX 22:16 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

Should be ok, but just keep an eye on the said levels. GT/GL

LKWD JJ 22:11 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GFX a buy stop @ 103.45-50 would be a good trade, no?

Singapore GFX 21:57 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
the CADJPY is coming into resistance that may erode the bulls' resolve. Currently hovering just above 103, the most readily available technical formation for the pair is the possible double top lining up with 12/20's high at 103.36. Today's intra-day high is only three points short of this level. What's more, the 50.0% fib of the 106.42-100.08 falls at 103.25. From the price derived indicators, only a bearish divergence in the MACD is ready to support a bearish turn. The RSI and slow Stochs have yet to breach their oversold levels and momentum has just recently turned positive. Should a downturn prevail, a move to the rising trendline (starting on 1/11/2006) currently at 100.33 may evolve. A daily bar close that clears all the aforementioned resistance levels, on the other hand, would negate the bears chance and allow an extension to the 61.8% of the 106.42-100.08 at 104.00.

USA BAY 21:46 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes oil man,

Is this the move to 0.74 by kiwi. Thanks

Cannes Oil man 21:37 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
NZD starts booming in this asian session , didn't even have time to rebuy my other half..
Guess next is ozi.

Cannes Oil man 21:30 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
UK 21:27 GMT January 15, 2007

Russia is a gold producer , along oil , copper, gas etc..

UK 21:27 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Gold earlier cleared the 622 Resistance level on Friday, with a good level of strength. Some talks were making the rounds among the traders that Russia is increasing the percentage of Gold holdings in their reserve mix, one of the factors behind the 15 USD rise today.
www.goldtradin.censored

Singapore GFX 20:59 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Could you please share your analysis for the jpy crosses and the chf crosses when you have the spare time. Appreciate it. Thank You.

USA BAY 20:58 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes OILman,

The two cable pairs GBP/JPY AND GBP/CHF are they a short now or there is still more room to go. Thanks

Sydney ACC 20:55 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 20:06 GMT January 15, 2007
http://abhafxsharmonic.censored/

GBP/USD UPDATE..

TARGET 1.9405

FXS..

Are you still short at 1.9590 or were you stopped out at 1.9618?

NY RP 20:32 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Gold seems to be an interest once again. Plenty of arguments for bulls and bears. The bull market in Gold is more apparent in Yen/Gold and Euro/Gold. On the dollar/Gold side of things there is a potential reverse head and shoulders formation. One could say with the most recent whipsaw action that Gold may have put in a bottom. We all know bottoms are difficult to call until after it actaully occurs but it certainly has the good cause. Dollar index over head resistance is 84.50 to 85.50 area. The Euro break out from November retraced all the way back and is testing it as support. If proven support, which I feel it is, 135 and then 145 are in teh cards. GL

Syd 20:27 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Central banks eyed after UK raises interest
AFTER Britain's surprise rate increase last Thursday, all eyes in the business world and financial markets are on the central banks - not just in Britain, but also in Europe, America, Japan and China.
The reasons for so much focus on monetary policy are clear enough: economic activity around the globe appears to be accelerating after a bumper Christmas, instead of slowing, as analysts and central bankers had generally expected; stock markets are at or near all-time highs; property prices everywhere have broken all previous records, not only in the levels to which they have risen but, even more strikingly, in the rate and persistence of the rise.
Under these conditions, central bankers are naturally recalling their proverbial job description - "to take away the punch-bowl when the party gets too merry".
LINK

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:15 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
This is Qindex comments earlier on the pair.

Melbourne Qindex 11:49 GMT January 15, 2007
AUD/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 0.7839.

Melbourne Qindex 06:26 GMT January 13, 2007
AUD/USD (Daily Cycle) : : The daily directional indicator is 0.7817 - 0.7820* - (0.7853). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 0.7817. The downside targeting points are 0.7744 and 0.7772. The upside targeting points are 0.7845 and 0.7862.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 0.7727* ... // 0.7772* - 0.7794 - 0.7802 - [0.7817]* - 0.7832 - 0.7839 - 0.7862* // ... - 0.7907*...

atx 20:11 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
thanks much miami

ABHA FXS 20:06 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
http://abhafxsharmonic.censored/

GBP/USD UPDATE..

TARGET 1.9405

FXS..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:03 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Short term view: Aud/usd pair has bounced off the main support (7825-35) and is sideways range is limited for now. Next support is around the 7805-15 area with resistance awaiting around the 7850-60 and 7880-90. A first buy signal was generated when the 7820-30 area was broken the second and final signal will be around the 7880-90 area IMHO. Peace and GT

atx 19:53 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
any ideas on aud?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:52 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
A quiet day as the US holiday passes by. Short term view: Gold main resistance (627-32) is holding up well and now the indicators are in the O/B area. It is still a sell on failed rallies until the main resistance is taken out. 615-20 is still the key support that must be taken out to challenge the 600 area IMHO. Peace and GT

Syd 19:31 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Any NZD Gains Post-QSBO Won't Last - BNZ
A potential NZD/USD rally driven by today's 4Q Quarterly Survey Of Business Opinion, due this morning, likely to be short-lived given prospect of downside risks to tomorrow's 4Q headline CPI number, says Bank of NZ currency strategist Danica Hampton; adds confidence survey likely to show resources in NZ extremely stretched, meaning inflation will remain a "pressing issue for RBNZ." Such an outcome could push up Kiwi to 0.6960-70 resistance area, though own view is that rallies will be an opportunity to sell; last 0.6943. Business confidence report due at 1000 NZT, 2100 GMT.

Joburg Africa 19:20 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone know exactly when BOJ is due to release their rates?
Thanks.

Cannes Oil man 18:51 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Covered half NZD$ here at 41...And rebuying lows , later on.

warsaw TOMi 18:41 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
squared euro at 50, don't have steam to go up atm as well with chf 50.

warsaw TOMi 18:35 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
to catt 16:34 GMT January 15, 2007

amon shorts now

cable satanic again at 9666

and yr hyena at 237.

what do u think? master..

Cannes Oil man 18:25 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
From this morning post , high lows very close:
EUR$ : 1.2959--1.2879
GBP$ : 1.9684--1.9484
$CHF : 1.2523--1.2433
NZD$ : .6934--.6884 (Over normal day now).
$/Y : 120.64--120.02.
$/CAD 1.1632--1.1738
GBPCHF 2.4539--2.4343..

Cannes Oil man 18:20 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Sold 1.2490 $CHF (had a limit at 1.2500 , removed and took manually).

gl gt

Geneva DS 18:16 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
USD set to rally again... chf leading, new highs for gbpchf and aud chf trends to continue... 1.2750 usdchf, 2.5200 gbpchf and 1.0250 audchf... good carry... usdjpy to explode this week as well, as whole planet knows that they will higher rates 123.50 first... eur probably not leading but 1.2870 willl crack and then 1.2650 later...

Madrid mm 17:43 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Budapest Z 17:11 GMT January 15, 2007
pleasesee his email @
Bandung, Indonesia barrie 16:36 GMT January 15, 2007

He gave his/her email address there

Budapest Z 17:11 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
barrie, what exactly do u need (what tenor)? What exactly is your thesis on? I can pull the data for u tomorrow, from either BBG or Reuters. Shoot me en e-mail thru Jay tomorrow.

Athens MK 17:06 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
gbp/$: Also 1.9721 is an important resistance to keep unbroken if price is to go back down to the 1.9403-20 area....

Bandung, Indonesia barrie 17:03 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
i already tried it but got no response...but i'll try another bank ...thanks bro'

Athens MK 16:56 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$:

target 1: 1.9523 main target
target 2: 1.9460 secondary
target 3: 1.9403 happy target :)

If 1.9843 is broken close and reverse for at least 1.9943 and potentially higher...

hk ab 16:55 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
thanks oilman, anyway, there must be a fund behind the buying though, look likely.

Madrid mm 16:55 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Bandung, Indonesia barrie 16:36 GMT January 15, 2007

your best bets are

1/ Indonesia central banks
2/ indonesian banks or foreign banks in Indonesia

Bandung, Indonesia barrie 16:36 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Plz help!... i need forward rate historical data for Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) - United States Dollar(USD) for period 2001 -2007, it can be monthly basis,weekly or daily. If u have them,please kindly send it to my email at [email protected] or let me know where to get them. I need them for my financial research for my master degree. Thanks before.

to catt 16:34 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:1
cablehyena needs to test the pevious high of 240

Cannes Oil man 16:30 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:21 GMT January 15, 2007

Russian are producing most if not all commodities , they don't need to buy any..
But gold is looking fine , some people on this forum have been looking for downside for years , don't forget that though..Meanwhile prices are consolidating, and going up...(This applies to everything vs the US$ , but YEN (until hike) ..).
gl gt

Mike Mirdiff 16:27 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Has anyone seen Lahore around.I sure do miss his comments.

Dubai Tony 16:23 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Oilman whats your outlook on euro/$.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:21 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
as I look the charts most of the action is in the GBP crosses - mainly GBPJPY and GBPCHF - as they seem to be favorite carry trades
well question to the knowing ones - - this is because of the rate differential??
so this trend I feel that everybody is thinking will last..
however GBPJPY is up 900 pips from last week and GBPCHF up 800 pips - also the newsfeeds report BOJ will hike - - well even if it hikes JPY is still cheap so this also adds up to prolonging the trend in these carry crosses..
however I ask - isn't it time to book profits - if these crosses advanced so high so fast - isn't it normal to see a 100-200 pips profit taking by the big funds who actually move the market??

hk ab 16:21 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Martin, the Russian story still looks quite true though. Copper is tanking but gold not following.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:13 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 15:10 GMT
will find it - I watch your style on GVI n just wanted more info - Tnx!!

Cannes Oil man 15:10 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:02 GMT January 15, 2007

I make an array of closing prices :
Array[0] = Price Low x days ago.
Array[1] = price high x days ago.
etc etc till you have enough...
BTW if you look in help forum i have already posted that formula months ago..Just improved it now , by adding many closing prices instead of just last.
gl

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:56 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Hi folks, back from my sebaticfal off GV. Just to remind you, gold now costs around $290 per ounce to mine on the average...some mines less...some more... Anything above that is profit. That's the core price..demand is the only variable.

I've posted on Political Forum things about today's change of presidents in Ecuador..a key pivotal event for Latin America. While Ecuador itself isn't a key player, the event of overwhelming approval for a man who's bent on picking up the mess he inherited from years of foul politics (with the exception of last president..he was good) means this part of Latin America at least is tired of being in the 3rd world. Many world leaders attend Correa's inaugriation today in Quito..much more so than previous presidents enjoyed. This is being considered a key event world wide..keep your eyes peeled. It's FOREX relative. Read my post and good trades to all this year!
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:49 GMT January 15, 2007

hk ab 14:20 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
gecko, may I ask, in your opinion, what's the fair value of gold now? TIA.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:02 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:49 GMT
how you define the range?

Cannes Oil man 13:49 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBPCHF only option barrier located at 2.46..

Cannes Oil man 13:49 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBPCHF 2.4539--2.4343..

van Gecko 13:43 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
The guide dogs had blasted off.. can the master be far behind?

"08:28 GMT April 5, 2006
..
Eur/Chf & Gbp/Chf track each other's direction in a lead/lag fashion with good correlations.. while both cross had been consolidating in a narrow range over the past year, Eur/Chf had recently broke out of its range & now poking at the 2004 high of 1.58 (which corresponds to the old Gbp/Chf 2.39 high) with good odds for the 1.60's.. imo the old Gbp/Chf 2.40/39 m/t target is reasonable once it follow its cousin up & push its master Usd/Chf into orbit.. fwiww.."

Como Perrie 13:43 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
More gold to come from space :)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cpress/20070110/ca_pr_on_sc/fallen_object

Cannes Oil man 13:25 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Forgot $/CAD 1.1632--1.1738

Cannes Oil man 13:18 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Neat the e$ touched my Daily range high and retraced...Hopefully doesn't touch my range low..LOL.

The Netherlands Purk 13:17 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Right, usd/jpy on the edge now, if pattern continues we shall see 12082 and more, and if not 12029-12009 again. I think the first now, so also saying that my range is not working today....

Cannes Oil man 13:14 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Vancouver Mike 12:29 GMT January 15, 2007


Prices move differently when rates are at neutral//exiting (for bears or bulls)...
Here 1.2870--1.2980 is definitely uninteresting..Market doesn't feel anything either way.

Global-View Research 12:58 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Economics Weekly: UK growth to be robust in 2007, Weekly economic data preview: Did stronger UK CPI inflation push the MPC to raise rates? (Lloyds Bank)

Madrid mm 12:53 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- China's foreign-exchange reserves, the world's largest, topped $1 trillion for the first time, adding pressure on the government to let the yuan gain faster.

Click here

Vancouver Mike 12:29 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man// What does this mean please re Euro:

"1.30 is an exiting level , 1.28-1.29 isn't" ?

Thank you

Madrid mm 12:13 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
hummmmmm
GBP/JPY from my platform
- open 235.73
- now trading 236.75
- change +1.02 yen
- change in % +0.43

But they might use different calculations.... for me +1.10 % would mean +2.36 yen

But don t worry , only curious. 8-)

Melbourne Qindex 11:49 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 0.7839.

Melbourne Qindex 06:26 GMT January 13, 2007
AUD/USD (Daily Cycle) : : The daily directional indicator is 0.7817 - 0.7820* - (0.7853). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 0.7817. The downside targeting points are 0.7744 and 0.7772. The upside targeting points are 0.7845 and 0.7862. 


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 0.7727* ... // 0.7772* - 0.7794 - 0.7802 - [0.7817]* - 0.7832 - 0.7839 - 0.7862* // ... - 0.7907*...

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:46 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
yes I wrote GBPJPY (sterling/yen) - my platforms shows net change 1.1%

Madrid mm 11:44 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:32 GMT January 15, 2007

If i may, gbp/ud is up 0.47% in my book.

I believe you mean 1.10 Yen

Cannes Oil man 11:41 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Rest:
EUR$ : 1.2959--1.2879
GBP$ : 1.9684--1.9484
$CHF : 1.2523--1.2433
NZD$ : .6934--.6884 (Over normal day now).
$/Y : 120.64--120.02.

Cannes Oil man 11:39 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Normal Day range :
.7861--.7799
Wednesday and thursday :
.7871--.7759..
So if we do break 61 and 71 , you know something is happening, like the bulls are getting enthusiast again..Right now , just a normal day...Added this to my models so gives me a good view of what is happening.
gl gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:32 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm 11:19 GMT
what about GBPJPY - up 1.1%

san miniato ab 11:27 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
good day to everybody, any interest to sell here aud usd for a return below 0,7800? for the mom 0,7860 first good res held quite well and with eur usd unable to break 1,2950 we can see a Dollar rebound again. i have already a short aud pos at 0,7820 and i thought to add here again. Appreciate ur comments tia and gl

Madrid mm 11:19 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
for cross lover
nzd/jpy up 0.73%

Melbourne Qindex 11:16 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:13 GMT - You are welcome.

The Netherlands Purk 11:16 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
I foresee the following scenario,it is off when we hit 12009 again. when eur/usd goes down again usd/py will continue its rise and we see new high soon.
My range bottom 11986 is a bit off limit i guess.... and the top is not far away.

Cannes Oil man 11:15 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
CAble is the leader of the pack that is quite a certainty..

Followed closely by ozi , and NZD...Rest are just trailing along as much as they can , still going up vs the dollar but market still has the adverse feelings towards Euro ..(Not for very long, 1.30 is an exiting level , 1.28-1.29 isn't)..Market needs interesting levels for both bulls/bears to have fast moves.
gl gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:13 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:44 GMT
much respect for your quantative method Doctor Q!

I've seen many times but actually your analyses caught my eye in the last 2 weeks as I was in GBPCHF and GBPJPY positions and the S & R areas your posted were very precise and on point! appreciate your input and help!!

Syd 10:45 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Italy Industrial Prod Peak Has Passed -BNPP
Italy's industrial growth in 4Q in expected to be lower than the 0.7% 3Q quarterly rise, says BNP Paribas, following Monday's disappointing November monthly decline of 0.3% reported by national statistics institute Istat

Melbourne Qindex 10:44 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Resistance around 1.9666.


Melbourne Qindex 05:56 GMT January 13, 2007
GBP/USD (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is 1.9481 - (1.9567) - 1.9666*. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.9481. The upside targeting points are 1.9598 and 1.9666*. The downside targeting points are 1.9363 and 1.9395.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 1.9246* ... // 1.9363* - 1.9422 - 1.9441 - [1.9481]* - 1.9520 - 1.9539 - 1.9598* // ... 1.9715*...

Melbourne Qindex 10:43 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : It found support around 1.2447.

Melbourne Qindex 05:19 GMT January 13, 2007
USD/CHF (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is (1.2471) - 1.2496* - 1.2500. The market is under pressure when it is trading below (1.2471). The upside targeting points are 1.2554 and 1.2633. The downside targeting points are 1.2417 and 1.2447.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 1.2393* ... // 1.2447* - 1.2473 - 1.2483 - [1.2500]* - 1.2518 - 1.2527 - 1.2554* //... 1.2608* ...

AMS MAXXIM 10:23 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/Members/display_currency_data.php

Syd 10:04 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Industrial production in the euro zone was once again weaker than expected in November, rebounding only slightly, as production of intermediate goods slipped on the month.

Total industrial production rose 0.2% from October, data from the European Union statistics agency showed Monday. That's below economists' forecasts of a 0.8% gain and follows two months of declines. Production eased 0.1% on the month in October and dropped 1.0% in September, Eurostat said.

On the year, output increased just 2.5% in November, after gaining 3.6% in October, falling short of economists' expectations of a 3.1% gain.

The weak figures indicate that some of the area's business surveys may have overestimated the strength of the economy.

Auckland trotter 09:57 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
An interesting level I have to watch for the EUR/USD is around 1.2900 for the week.

Gen dk 09:50 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 09:50 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
e/j: last week high was 15635, but first this 15605. usd/jpy last week high 12074, first 12062.. Beast just do what you have to do...

Auckland trotter 09:39 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
I have the EUR/USD at present looking for a direction.

EUR fundamental due at GMT 10:00 appears to be giving some uncertainty to those who are looking for something to give a direction to the pair.

General pressure appears to be up from various indicators. Current resistance level around 1.2944. The price has been bouncing off the SMA (100) on the 5min 12hr chart, don’t expect it to again.

The Netherlands Purk 09:36 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Beast sure drags a few currencies with it. I dont see euro strength, just yen weakness and a eur/gbp short. keep out of the cable Purk, keep out of the cable....

Eilat Dolphin 09:36 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Hi Martin, happy & ressourcefull new year. Send me an email, please, as my last computer sank with all files on boards...Meanwhile the first Convoy is almost out of the dockyard!

Gold Coast Martin 09:18 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:49 GMT January 15, 2007
Just plain and simple profit taking friday ahead of the long US weekend..In case you missed it(check the gold level at the time of the post below..it will give you future direction...)...From GVI...
gold coast Martin 03:18 GMT November 27, 2006
Livingston nh 00:57 GMT November 27, 2006
A bad sign for the euro bulls and gold bugs is when the 3 leading producers of gold are starting to hedge their forward production orders of 2007 from current levels....

AMS MAXXIM 09:13 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Machsee too hahaha

AMS MAXXIM 09:10 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 09:08 GMT umeanwindows

van Gecko 09:08 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Gold, an accident waiting to happen?

Gen dk 08:59 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nicosia y d 08:57 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
The only release from Europe last Friday was the French CPI, which came 0.1% higher than 0.1% monthly rise expected
and drew no significant interest in the forex market.
The EUR traded in a relatively tight range through the European morning,
with the ECB's change of tone from the previous day still echoing.
what do you think about the trend?

Melbourne Qindex 08:53 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : If the market can close above [236.53] in New York, the next targeting range is 238.13 - 238.34.

Melbourne Qindex 08:52 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : If the market can close above [236.53] in New York, the next tregting range is 238.13 - 238.34.

hk ab 08:49 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Martin, in your opinion, what happened last Fri about the golden rocket then? It doesn't look fake at all.

HK MACAU 08:47 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
MELBOURNE QINDEX,

Whats after 236.52 for gbp/jpy, advance to 237? thanks

Melbourne Qindex 08:42 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
HK_Macau 08:22 GMT - Keep an eye on the level [236.53]*.

NY R19 08:32 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD //// BTW, @#%$ing still can not believe that sell-off in cable post BoE rate hike, still, still, STILL - because tick tock, price movements since are affirming GBP strength across the board. What a haunting @#%$ job that shake out was...

NY R19 08:28 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD //// I think 1.9634 will be tough to crack so R/R for new longs unattractive. Could see further upside, but wary of PPI data as it may be this + CPI that prompted BoE to raise rates.

Vancouver Mike 08:27 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm 08:03 GMT //

That's funny

So, basically announce the opposite strategy so you can exit your position and take the opposite position.

Basically, they look at the possible upswing in CAD and say. oh, wait a minute, let's create some buzz so we can fully get out!

The "hedge funds" were short CAD since August I'm sure. why the late news on what they did?

it's really unbelievable. all these "Dunceberg" articles are all written by "long only" reporters I guess?

HK_Macau 08:22 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Any idea where gbp/jpy is heading too. is 236.99 a realistic target for today. thanks

The Netherlands Purk 08:11 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Good day. usd/jpy stays above the 120 now for a period of time, and if we break 12041-12061-12081 we know direction. For now my range is still 12060-11986, maybe a little rangeexpansion on both sides.
e/j is interesting, want to see not more than 15605...

Melbourne Qindex 08:04 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD :  The market is rejected from the daily cycle upper barrier of 1.2952 // 1.2981. The mid-point reference of 1.2952 // 1.2981 is 1.2967. Projected resistant levels are located at [1.3010]* and 1.3142. Projected supporting levels are expected at 1.2816 and 1.2835. 


Melbourne Qindex 04:38 GMT January 13, 2007
EUR/USD (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is (1.2840) - 1.2874* - 1.2895. The market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 1.2895. The downside targeting points are 1.2811 and 1.2837. The upside targeting points are 1.2952 and 1.3002.

Daily Cycle Reference : ... 1.2779* ... // 1.2837* - 1.2866 - 1.2875 - [1.2895]* - 1.2914 - 1.2924 - 1.2952* // 1.2981 - 1.3010* ...

Madrid mm 08:03 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Canadian Dollar Falls Prey to Hedge Funds as Crude, Copper Drop

By Haris Anwar

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Traders are making the biggest bets ever against the Canadian dollar.

Hedge funds and other large speculators started the year with a record C$8.5 billion ($7.2 billion) wagered that the currency will fall against the U.S. dollar. Canada's dollar tumbled to a 13-month low last week amid slower economic growth and a 33 percent slide in crude oil since July.

``There are all kinds of horrible things happening to the currency,'' said John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts Inc., a New York firm that manages $12 billion in currencies. ``Crude oil, lumber, and copper markets look ugly at this time. Most of the hedge funds are out of the Canadian-dollar trade, and I don't see any sign that they'll come back soon.'' Taylor exited bets on the currency in the summer.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=aa.xUnYwXS6E&refer=benchmark_currency_rates

Syd 07:08 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 06:38 GMT Hi , my opinion for what its worth still see upside in the USD for the next few weeks , UK rate rise now priced in as it was expected , just came sooner than most thought. Got to see if Europe 2007 hike in the country's value-added tax hasnt bought forward plans of consumers purchases especially cars before the hike giving the effect of booming condition , if they raise rates on top of this expect a bit of a shock for Euro bulls , wouldnt call it manipulated the recovery in Europe but artificial

Madrid mm 07:04 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
-Japan's Machinery Orders Rise, Supporting Case for Higher Interest Rates
-Asian Leaders Plan Free-Trade Area That Would Rival European Union, U.S.
-Philippine Peso Will Rise to 48 as Coup Risk Fades, Says Morgan Stanley
-South Korea Eases Regulations on Overseas Investments to Curb Gains by Won
-Gold May Rise for Second Week as Investors Seek Alternative to the Dollar
bloomberg.com

Madrid mm 07:01 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Singapore


Yomiuri, Asahi, Mainichi: BoJ likely to raise rates on Jan 18.

Kyodo/ NKS: reported LDP Sec Gen Hidenao Nakagawa suggested government should urge BoJ not to raise interest rates this week.

MoF Koji Omi, after meeting with ECB Jean Claude Trichet says that currencies should reflect economic fundamentals but that he would not comment on specific levels.

IHT/AP: German Chancellor Angela Merkel strongly defended the ECB's independence in interview with Le Monde, saying France's presidential candidates should stop blaming ECB for the country's woes and follow her reformist example instead.

Sunday Times: BCC survey will say price expectations have risen to a record high, adding to the BoE's inflation worries. The survey will reinforce the argument for higher rates

Bahrain says it will not change its currency peg to USD.

EUR/JPY was main mover today, with Japanese custodian, agricultural, brokerage, securities houses and several mega-city banks all good sellers of EUR/JPY, USD/JPY since the beginning of Asia session, pushing both currencies pairs lower.

Market will be thinner today in Europe/ UK as US is away on MLK Day.

Talks the good selling from Japanese into fixing pushing it to lows 155.10 from 155.65, 120.07 fm 120.45, could be linked to >EUR20b eurozone coupons and bonds redemption today, mainly from Italy, some Netherlands.

JPY also helped by Combo of strong Japan machineary orders + BoJ rate hike reports in Japanese media though Japanese investors, securities houses bought USD/JPY, EUR/JPY at lows and triggering short-covering back up.

USD/JPY still capped on rallies, with offers 120.50-80, and ahead of the huge 117-121.00 DNT. Bids at 120 lows, some stoploss below 119.90, while EUR/JPY seen playing in 155-156 range at the moment.

GBP big mover today as well, hitting stops above 1.9610 to 2-week highs of 1.9618, with talks M.E., real money funds and interbank players have good buyer, helped by talks of Dubai+Liverpool GBP450mln, GE-Smiths Group GBP2.5boln M+As talks and expectation of more BoE rate hikes.

GBP/JPY hit 8yr 5-m highs of 236.08, pushing EUR/GBP to near 2yr 5-m lows of 0.6592-95.EUR steady offers at 1.2940-50. NZD back up, NZD/JPY off lows after earlier bouts of Japanese, US sales. AUD capped by Big 4 Oz/ Swiss offers at 0.7850-60, NOK could slip on NOK32b bond redemption.

Nikkei +152.91pts at 17,209, JGBs lower on stronger machinery orders raise hopes of BoJ hike. Yield +0.005% at 1.745%/

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 120.07/120.47, EUR/USD 1.2918/1.2940, GBP/USD 1.9571/1.9618, USD/CHF 1.2466/1.2481, AUD/USD 0.7831/0.7859, NZD/USD 0.6906/0.6948.

Singapore fs 06:56 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm 06:52 GMT January 15, 2007
I know about this too... The last "Thanksgiving" has spooked me. Scary but fun.

Based on my personal analysis, most likely it is still an up market for the GBP or EURO, unless of course, the fundamental are bad. And most probably next week, week of 22/01/07, will be some EURO and GBP sell off... :) This is what i'm hoping for...

Madrid mm 06:52 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
hello fx jedi

Correct me if i am wrong but, didn't we have strong move the last 2 USA bank holidays in Euor/usd and others ?

Gold Coast Martin 06:40 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   

FWIW....same goes for gold..Russia have NEVER been buyers of gold. They produce it and try to settle the majority of their running sovereign debt with most of it. As they did a while ago with the majority of their Paris club debt. The rest they sell on the current market ..They DO NOT buy it at current prices.


gold coast Martin 14:46 GMT November 27, 2006


GVI john 14:38 GMT November 27, 2006
i think i mentioned here over 12 months ago...Russian central Bank never been a big seller of USDs to euro due to the fact that all import duties payable by russian importers to the government is priced in euros...so the russian government has got a great euro generating system....and no need to dip into its USD RESERVES to buy euros...

Sydney ACC 06:38 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Syd 06:21 GMT January 15, 2007
Do you have a view on USDS from here? Especially GBP/USD what appreciate your opinion if you have one.

USA BAY 06:32 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
What is the momentum and the range for gbp/usd today.? ty

Syd 06:21 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   

Interesting view on the markets

25 Year Stock Market Top
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1168903818.php

Syd 06:20 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 06:17 GMT definitly not easy these days, even the big boys are trying to get a grip :-)) what chance do we have

Syd 06:18 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Some players have bought 6-month 25-delta USD call/JPY put options with 121 strike price, $100 million face value, at 6.6%, Tokyo options dealers say; reflects bullish view on USD, idea wide rate gap between Japan, U.S. to continue to favor USD for a while

Sydney ACC 06:17 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Syd 06:03 GMT January 15, 2007 So the Russians sell platinum and palladium, this weakewns gold, they get USD for selling metals then sell USD for euros. Gold weakens and so does USD.
So many permutations - who said Fx trading is easy.

Syd 06:03 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:02 GMT will be very interesting

hk ab 06:02 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
syd//but RUSSIAN just bought lots of gold last Fri.... the outcome will be interesting.

hk ab 04:58 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
yes oilman, this accumultaion needs, like what bc said, conviction. I was in 6910, exited 6916 now reloaded on Fri 6905. think it's the last train alert to .74.

Syd 04:48 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Spot platinum may face heavy selling at London open on various weekend reports Russia's government has ended export quotas on precious metals, says HK-based trader; Russian firms likely to "dump as much (physical platinum and palladium) on the market as possible" as prices now at very favorable levels. Spot platinum last at $1,143.50/oz, down $4.50 on NY close; Tocom benchmark December platinum +Y36 at Y4,383/gram as Tocom traders more driven by USD/JPY cue, but selling on Tocom "would add more fuel to the fire," trader says

Cannes Oil man 04:43 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:14 GMT January 15, 2007

As i said last week , Let them sell E$ , NZD$ etc at 6850/69 area , and e$ at 1.2900, gold etc at 600..
Why accumulating good entries..
Next NZD$ Target at .7130 (followed by .7400)..Now that the WEAK longs are out ...Look post below for signs of weak longs..

gl gt


Cannes Oil man 22:39 GMT January 2, 2007
We will see your entries , that is a certainty before 75.
During the week , on the jpy fix.
gl gt , off to rest.

NZD$ at 7090 when posted , to the virtual player with 20 identities , who claimed being long 6850..But he's short now with one of his identities from 7090 now..Life is simple on this side of the forum , make a new handle.
-----

London 04:25 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Base metals mood turns decidedly gloomy
'We are witnessing the definitive end' of the price boom
LINK

hk ab 04:14 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
I don't see commodities in downtrend though if you see the blasting last week.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:01 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Good to hear you are well Qindex hope you have a great week. Short term view nzd/usd pair is bouncing off the O/S area with key resistance around the 6940-50 and 6970-80. A break of the 6970-80 area would be a good signal to buy. This pair is still a buy on dips until the main support (6855-65) is taken out IMHO. Peace and GT

Poland Piotr 03:29 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes oilman,

With commodities going downtrend and RBNz not likely to raise interst rates, isnt nzd/usd likely to go down?/ Thanks

Cannes Oil man 03:21 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
NZD is about to make a turn around...Very nice bottoming so far.
Above 6945 it will be fly.
gl gt

Zurich 03:10 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Dr Q I have sent mail to your yahoo email id.

Melbourne Qindex 03:03 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD (Daily Cycle) : :  The daily directional indicator is 0.9140* - 0.9144 - (0.9220). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 0.9140*. The downside targeting points are 0.9041 and 0.9084. The upside targeting points are 0.9205 and 0.9239. 


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 0.0.9024* - 0.9054 // 0.9084* - 0.9114 - 0.9124 - [0.9144]* - 0.9165 - 0.9175 - 0.9205* // 0.9235 - 0.9265*...

Melbourne Qindex 02:41 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 02:39 GMT - Send me an e-mail.

Zurich 02:39 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

How can I subcribe for a trial Dr Q. Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 02:27 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is vibrating aound [1.9412] with an expected magnitude of 1.9090 - 1.9734. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy as long as GBP/JPY is trading below [236.46].


Melbourne Qindex 05:56 GMT January 13, 2007
GBP/USD (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is 1.9481 - (1.9567) - 1.9666*. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.9481. The upside targeting points are 1.9598 and 1.9666*. The downside targeting points are 1.9363 and 1.9395.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 1.9246* ... // 1.9363* - 1.9422 - 1.9441 - [1.9481]* - 1.9520 - 1.9539 - 1.9598* // ... 1.9715*...

Melbourne Qindex 02:21 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:32 GMT - Good morning! I have more free time in Melbourne but will be busy when I go to Hong Kong next week.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:54 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Gold has a key support on the 600 area. The bears must take this area with complete confidence or the correction will die. We are still in a bullish channel though IMHO. Peace and GT

Syd 01:51 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Weaker-than-expected Australian housing finance data (down 0.6% on-month in November vs expected flat result) lends support to bonds, weighs a bit on AUD/USD, says Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets; AUD/USD at 0.785, down slightly from pre-data 0.7853 level. March 3-year futures at 93.865 though off 93.85 at open, 10-year futures 94.065 from 94.075. Next week's 4Q CPI data still pivotal in determining whether RBA will exercise tightening bias; RBC looks for core inflation of 0.7% for RBA to retain breathing room on any hikes. "We think it would prefer to stay sidelined as it tries to gauge whether the 75 basis point tightening (so far) is enough to ensure medium-term inflation pressures are contained."

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:32 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
The more that you give you are a maker the more that you take you are a taker and so it goes on and on and on (heaven and censored) LOL. Good to see Qindex active again though. Peace and GT

Syd 01:06 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD may face downside risk from upcoming key NZ data including private sector Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion tomorrow, 4Q CPI Wednesday, says Bank of NZ currency strategist Danica Hampton; with market already pricing in relatively hawkish RBNZ track, if data show capacity constraints easing (as most economists expect, due largely to lower fuel prices), that would raise doubts over whether RBNZ will tighten rates Jan. 25, and in turn weigh on NZD.
BNZ

Syd 00:59 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
BOJ policy decision Thursday may dent NZD sentiment, Bank of NZ strategist Danica Hampton says, noting market leaning in favor (66% chance) of rate hike; if BOJ hikes, conveys concern about JPY weakness or build-up of carry trades, "this has the potential to trigger another burst of yen strength" - leaving NZD/JPY vulnerable to "considerable weakness." NZD/JPY last 83.09

nj jf 00:41 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
maybe u guys shud sign up for a dr q trial

GVI john 00:36 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
COT analysis courtesy Cumino.

SAVE AND UNZIP

Zurich 00:34 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
melbourne qindex,

Dr Q, when you have the time could you share your analysis for GBP/USD. Thanks

ABHA FXS 00:25 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9590 stop 9618 T 1.9447

Melbourne Qindex 00:17 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:44 GMT January 13, 2007
USD/JPY (Daily Cycle) : The daily directional indicator is 119.50* - (119.58) - 120.86. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 119.50*. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 119.82. The upside targeting points are 120.86 and 120.92. The downside targeting points are 119.50 and 120.08.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 119.82* - 120.08 // 120.34* - 120.60 - 120.77 - [120.86]* - 120.95 - 121.12 - 121.38* // ... 121.91* ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:09 GMT January 15, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF (Daily Cycle) :  The daily directional indicator is (1.0665) - 1.0689* - 1.0710. The market has a potential to head for 1.0125 if it can trade below (1.0198). The upside targeting points are 1.0758 and 1.0827. The downside targeting points are 1.0552 and 1.0662.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 1.0615* - 1.0638 // 1.0662* - 1.0686 - 1.0694 - [1.0710]* - 1.0726 - 1.0734 - 1.0758* //1.0782 - 1.0806* ...