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Forex Forum Archive for 01/16/2007

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warsaw TOMi 23:53 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
cumino, it'sgood.. not never mind, everyone of us is going through this.. remember, fear is before you take up the trade, but when you do, you don't feel it anymore.. you may hope or you maybe EXCESSIVELY happy, or you may stick to ur plan and be solid like a rock, reacting accordingly to ur abc plans, whatever..

anyway

goodluck to you as well as to everybody, cos we don't actually have a slightest impact on the pxs from our trades..

Cannes Oil man 23:49 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
BTW EUR/CAD looks like a good buy after today's move..As long as 1.5100 holds.

Cannes Oil man 23:45 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
1.5254___1.5118..

There is no correlation to me posting first high or low at the start of the line..Just read the numbers and retype them here..

pd cumino 23:43 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 23:41 GMT January 16, 2007
OK. Never mind. Good luck.

warsaw TOMi 23:41 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 23:34 GMT January 16, 2007

may agree on this one, but I don't believe in hope, just trying to accomplish the previously set goal... and fear?
you may have fear, but once in action fear tottally flattens out when you take the action...

pd cumino 23:34 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 23:28 GMT January 16, 2007
When you buy or sell at, Tomi, means that your hopes are winning your fears. Simply.

West Ham oldgroyne 23:33 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Today proved that even "no hopers" can be losers as well as winners!

RIC fxq 23:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 23:23 GMT

well said pd, as always appreciate your inputs here and over there >>>>>>>>

warsaw TOMi 23:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 23:23 GMT January 16, 2007

if I may..,
that simple truth may be true in love..

you will not hope in the price because the price is always there-not to hope in but to buy or sell at...

thx

hk ab 23:25 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
120.95 small short limit

Syd 23:23 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Monthly valuations continue to favor USD/CAD move higher as multiyear oversold divergence is resolved, says RBC Capital Markets; "our new long-term target is established at 1.1970," with pair having reached previous long-term goal of 1.1700; "a monthly close above 1.1770 resulting from further weakness in commodity prices (crude oil and base metals in particular) would then target a key resistance level at 1.1974," with little significant resistance above there until 1.2245. Intermediate uptrend in place suggests support between 1.1604 and 1.1412 should limit pullbacks; long-term support lies at 1.1458, then 1.1138

pd cumino 23:23 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Hopes and fears are the only things that really count.
Those who deny that simple true, really are hoping in their charts, or systems, which is BTW far more naive and a bit more stupid than hoping in a price.

Syd 23:20 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD could retreat to 1.2870 as falling oil prices aid USD, says senior interbank dealer at European bank; focus on U.S. December PPI, Fed Beige Book due later in global day, which may bump up USD further if they paint rosy picture of economy; pair last at 1.2916 on EBS. Dow Jones poll tips core PPI +0.2% vs November's +1.3%.

warsaw TOMi 23:05 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 23:03 GMT January 16, 2007

generally speaking, thin ice... anyway GL/GT

LKWD JJ 23:03 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:53 GMT January 16, 2007
sold $y @ 73 stops above highs. boj rate talk will pop up again and no major movement(up) in this pair until then. imho
===========================================
using this to cost avg down a short from 33. not looking for much , but jackpot possible. sub 120.area would be nice

warsaw TOMi 23:00 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
usdchf once 1.2510 cleared, see uspide scope for 1.26.

austin gw 22:59 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:19 GMT January 16, 2007

Thank you for your continual postings. Good stuff.
I noticed that you have some pairs listed with the High first, then some with the Low listed first. Is this on purpose (your feeling of direction) or is this just how you happened to post them?

Thanks.

LKWD JJ 22:53 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
sold $y @ 73 stops above highs. boj rate talk will pop up again and no major movement(up) in this pair until then. imho

USA BAY 22:52 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OILMAN,

Can I have the range for eur/cad please. THANKS

hk ab 22:48 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
oilman, we are different "ab"s....

warsaw TOMi 22:47 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 22:28 GMT January 16, 2007

fyg, just supposing that cable will be quicker downhill than usdjpy uphill..

warsaw TOMi 22:44 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:42 GMT January 16, 2007

hehehe,me too, it'sjust never be sure, never wish, never hope.. just suppose and think..

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:43 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man - I see you do your range calculation at 22:00 GMT - I understand that most people use like the GVI Market Tracker the NY close at 21:30 GMT for EOD data...
I assume there is no difference if one is to gather data at 22:00 or let's say 00:00 GMT??
as I understand your method is similar to calculating pivot points, no?
anyway - great that you share your work here!

Cannes Oil man 22:42 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Everytime i start hoping , it means i m loosing a LOT of pips..Better no hope , thanks .

Cannes Oil man 22:41 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
..HOPE?...again!?

warsaw TOMi 22:40 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:36 GMT January 16, 2007

BOE debacle we've seen already priced in.hopefully..

Cannes Oil man 22:36 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
This doesn't bode well for e$ , with 1.2870 looming again..The TOTAL failure is a big disappointment, with last week lows test coming in now.
Guess there won't be any kind of direction , till BOJ...taking a big stand either way, after the BOE debacle is probaly scaring lots of players.

warsaw TOMi 22:35 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 22:28 GMT January 16, 2007

yes, yen is not my favorite one, better take profit on usd pairs, anyway, target usdjpy may lay around 123 fyg not 12140.

san miniato ab 22:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
sorry stereo

san miniato ab 22:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 22:17 GMT January 16, 2007
i saw ur posts in fact and sincerely hope to see a much higher usd yen to save my gbp yen pos ahaha if really 1,2850 will trade i have just to hope to see 121,40 tgt on usd yen i think to maintain euryen at 156.... but in that case hope to see also a much lower eurgbp so u can take ur profit on ur short eur usd pos which i suppose is very larger than ur gbpyen one at this point.

san miniato ab 22:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 22:17 GMT January 16, 2007
i saw ur posts in fact and sincerely hope to see a much higher usd yen to save my gbp yen pos ahaha if really 1,2850 will trade i have just to hope to see 121,40 tgt on usd yen i think to maintain euryen at 156.... but in that case hope to see also a much lower eurgbp so u can take ur profit on ur short eur usd pos which i suppose is very larger than ur gbpyen one at this point.

Cannes Oil man 22:24 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Today means valid for 24 hours counting from the posted time.
gl

Cannes Oil man 22:19 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Today New ranges :

1.2873----1.2965 E$
1.9521----1.9676 GBP$
6876-----6958 NZD$
120.97---120.32 $/YEN
1.1687---1.1821 $/CAD
7804----7847 AUDUSD
155.48--156.19 EURJPY
1.2526---1.2434 $CHF
9734---9802 AUDCHF
237.21---236.11 GBPJPY
2.4411---2.4548 GBPCHF
82.91---83.93 NZDJPY
1.6095---1.6147 EURCHF..

Ah well looks like S...For my euro's..


Cannes Oil man 01:37 GMT January 16, 2007
$Y 120.71---120.12
GBPUSD 1.9696--1.9589
EURUSD 1.2958//1.2914
NZD .6695 //6933
$/CAD 1.1705 //1.1657
AUDUSD .7855//7822
EURJPY 155.21 //156.41
$CHF 1.2513//1.2455
GBPJPY 237.61//235.45
EURCHF 1.6175//1.6122
GBPCHF 2.4598//2.4452

warsaw TOMi 22:17 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 22:14 GMT January 16, 2007

yes, you may have a point, since i am heavy short gbp vs $ this gbpjpy I treat as only additional, won't loose more than 35 pips on it, so gl!

Paris lnn 22:15 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
pls help. can someone tell me Whats the value day for deals of USDJPY from 3rd Jan. Thank you

san miniato ab 22:14 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 22:05 GMT January 16, 2007
for the mom..... anyway i noticed that 236,30 held quite well 3 times today ( for this i put the sl below the figure as i dont have a big position prefer to add on upsiede break and simultaneously raise the sl at the enter level of every position) and if usdyen will break 120,70 cud lead to another assault at 156,30 big res, what do u think abt this my frd

Abu Dubi Oil Slick 22:10 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 21:49 GMT January 16, 2007
yes 2 abs...just like we have 1 oil man and one oil slick. all we need is an oil lamp.

warsaw TOMi 22:05 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 21:47 GMT January 16, 2007

u are closer to mine then I am to yours 8-)

gl/gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:02 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:47 GMT
mate you do better than most newsfeeds around!
I got IGM and AFX but saw the NZ data from your post - gr8 as ever..
just scalped a quick NZDUSD from 05 to 21 - GL & GT !!

san miniato ab 21:52 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
i see thnks, anyway i m in center Italy, in Tuscany near Florence for ur info, never been in Hong Kong, unfortunately..

Cannes Oil man 21:49 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
so we now have hk ab, and another ab..Or is it the same , that moved?

warsaw TOMi 21:49 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 21:46 GMT January 16, 2007

it is Oilman projection range, which is quite accurate for day ranges.

Cannes Oil man 21:48 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 21:46 GMT January 16, 2007

That was my estimated high/low i had posted yesterday , ab:)

Actual high was different..a bit.

san miniato ab 21:47 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 21:35 GMT January 16, 2007
thks TOMi, may i know where is ur sl on upside pls?

Syd 21:47 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
NZ 4Q Consumer Price Index -0.2 Vs 3Q; Consensus Flat


NZ 4Q Consumer Price Index +2.6% On Yr;

san miniato ab 21:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 21:38 GMT January 16, 2007
Are u sure top of the range today in gbp yen was 237,61? i have no more than 237,30 on my platform

warsaw TOMi 21:43 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
€/$ if cracks down 1.29 objective adjusted to 1.2790.

Cannes Oil man 21:38 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 21:30 GMT January 16, 2007

Looks like it's more the problem with the BOJ hike/no hike event than boe minutes for £/Y..
However Range today was 237.61//235.45..

Tomorrow range should widen to the upside.
Will post it in a few..

SINGPORE GFX 21:37 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
500 points in under a week, the GBPCHF , indicators are suggesting a pullback show signs of consolidation just above the 2.4450 figure. cross has experienced a test of the 2.4432 figure (23.6 percent fib from the 1/9-1/15 bull wave) on the support side. a break of the 2.4432 figure, with barriers at 2.4350 and 2.4286. if the 2.4550 top be broken, longer term 2.4900 targets.

warsaw TOMi 21:35 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 21:30 GMT January 16, 2007

I'm in at 23682 short for a pullback to 235... fm

san miniato ab 21:30 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Hi, what do u think abt my pos long gbpyen at 236,70 since this morning wht sl at 235,90 and tp at 238,40? think boe will be very hawkish in their minutes next week to explain (today anyway we saw the reason of the "surprise"..) the hike. They escaped for just a tenth in percentage to write a not so good letter to the PM, letter which cud be considered a big defeat in their policy if CPI today wud been 3,1% i/o 3,0% as it came out. For it concern BOJ i think that they are in a corner, the only thing sufficient to avoid another selling flow wud be only an hike followed by strong remarks thereafter by Mr Fukui on possiblity or better need to continue in the next future to hike the rate and followed by remarks strongly agst the carry trade. Tia for ur comments gl

SINGAPORE GFX 21:24 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
TO CATT,

Do you have a range for pullback on gbp/jpy?. thanks

warsaw TOMi 21:21 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
catt, oki,will place stop at slight profit for gbpjpy, the rest is good fm,tia

OTTAWA mjw 21:16 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
oilman, your range for nzd/$ has held from last night with #'s coming out are you still looking to hold them. thank you for your input...

Geneva DS 21:11 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
still lots of posts of euro bottoming and usdchf topping and usdjpy topping... very interesting.... I think big move will come , but do agree 100 percent with PAR.... USD will explode....

Syd 21:10 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD Test Of 0.7000 Unlikely - ANZ
NZD/USD unlikely to test 0.7000 as would need today's 4Q CPI to print around +0.3% on-quarter or +3% on-year at least to create sufficient talk about RBNZ being put under pressure to hike next week, says ANZ senior dealer Alex Sinton; ANZ picking flat outcome for on-quarter, +2.8% on-year, same as market consensus; tips support around 0.6935, saying would need a negative 0.2% quarterly inflation number to test, go below that; topside more likely capped in 0.6960-0.6990 "congestion zone" as CPI risk is to downside; pair last 0.6958. CPI data due 1045 NZT, 2145 GMT.

to catt 21:08 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn
yea , just a pullback
notice the fact that dayly candles are higher and higher ,

Cannes Oil man 20:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 20:24 GMT January 16, 2007

use posted range from last night , didn't break either side.

KL KL 20:40 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Still holding to gbpusd shorts 12 hours...and locking in 30 pips profit ...will take 100-150 pips on offer anytime within 24 hours. Ninja trade never greedy

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:29 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY - well, or maybe the tech indicators are just as I read in the analyses on the web "unwinding" and the cross is setting up a ST bottom to test the multi year high at 240
this is where pro traders who saw similar moves can add some reflections on the price action..

USA BAY 20:24 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OILMAN,

Do you think GBP/CHF is a buy here or more downside to go. Thanks

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:23 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY - I watch the hourly chart and the slow stochastics I have (14-8-4 or 15-9-3) are both going lower - MACD also is going lower and the lines are going to cross the ) line from the upside.. the longer term MAs like 50 period also are sloping

so.. many people here pointed the previous high from 1998 at 240 as a target but I see a potential pullback close - will appreciate any tech view or comment?

Cannes Oil man 20:19 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sold 1.1765 , 20 pips again..But looks like the naughty boy is done for the day, looking for 1.1710.(~~40 pips profit only as lost 24 before)..
Still holding the rest as the ranges didn't break..
Few hours till i post tomorrow's ranges..

But past 2 days were excellent (apart from the loonie , which exceeded the high by 50 pips , but loonie is loonie.)..

Syd 19:54 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Russia Security Officials Warned Of Possible Terror Act
MOSCOW (AP)--Russian authorities ordered security forces on high alert Tuesday after receiving information from foreign officials pointing to the threat of a terrorist attack involving a subway or ground transport system, Russian media reported.


warsaw TOMi 19:36 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
catt,yes, check my reply..

to dr unken catt 19:27 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 19
yo !
did u get ma mail?

warsaw TOMi 19:09 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
going that far, looking at monthly, if we see 2500, we may as well see 1.20 next.

warsaw TOMi 19:01 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
rafe// I agree, will keep shorts running,unless there is new target to put the monia in, ft time being 2830-50 target area at least for some.

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:35 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
tomi// the weekly top is 13050 on euro. weekly low is 12834 and lower... so better go short higher up take partial profits at lower levels and keep some runnning to 125

PAR 18:02 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
BOJ will not raise rates. On Monopoly money you dont get interest either and you can always take money out of the bank if you run out of cash.

warsaw TOMi 18:02 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
as i am just short term gatherer of one hundreds either way, I don't care, I don't look that far.. but it's good to know the distant target so that u can set it up nicely for it in the certain timeframe..any way, need a crack down 29 figure fn..

warsaw TOMi 17:57 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
rafe, surely right, but before 25, there may be a target of 29.. :-)

all the best to you!

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:54 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
tomi// okay np, 26 always comes before 25 on the way down yes?.

Singapore gfx 17:51 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK,

As for cable, given the present levels it is still a sell?? Thanks

Cannes Oil man 17:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Anyways , if my range system finds all the ranges, it means something....we are ranging..Guess the obvious needed to be said!;)

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:38 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
sorry - it was once I used another calendar and it's wrong - BOJ is as many times was pointed on 18. Jan - oo:00 GMT apologies!

Cannes Oil man 17:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Karachi Pount/USD 17:23 GMT January 16, 2007

I posted the daily Ranges , or what i think will be the daily ranges , as for where YOU must buy , that's up to you.

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:27 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
BOJ rate decision is actually tonight 00:00GMT - 10 min after the Curr Account and Trade Balance releases..

Karachi Pount/USD 17:23 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
thanxx Oil Man....... and what about pound/usd .... where have to buy...

warsaw TOMi 17:21 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
thanks rafe, this is close tomine 2850,don't know about 2500, 2660 stands first,cheers.

Cannes Oil man 17:20 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Karachi Pount/USD 17:12 GMT January 16, 2007

No change in view since September(Look archives)...Range 50//65..Under 50 might start a big move , but here , looks like the low end of the range.

Oil was starting to be the "gold" mine, with every risk taker longing it for profit without doubt of downside..What followed is what usually follows on hype's..(Like $/Y hype in the news now) , Liquidation..Don't see 50/65 break before awhile..
gl with oil , stopped doing any oil for awhile now.

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:18 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
tomi// euro 12493

for now it's 12834.

warsaw TOMi 17:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 17:11 GMT January 16, 2007
rafe, where is yr downside for €uro please..?

Philadelphia Caba 17:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
eur/chf: rounded top on 4 & 8 hr charts?

Karachi Pount/USD 17:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man, wat would be suggest for Crude Oil. it is on buying level or either it should be accumulate our stocks. as OPEC has dinied to cut production in Crude Oil.

warsaw TOMi 17:11 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 17:06 GMT January 16, 2007

hope to see cable touching 9843 for my 2.00 objective, but before that need to establich longer term long for which I am shorting atm , will look for the base around 1.93-94.

hk ab 17:11 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
seems mkt is very worry about e/j and nzd/jpy.....no hike is a pure dream but 0.50 plays the wild card on crosses. 0.25 will be the fast dive to 119.50 and then enroute to 140...

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:11 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
watch out on euro look for powerful moves today... had difficulty connecting online....

Gen dk 17:09 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

rag bar 17:08 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
State to launch criminal investigation against Israeli Prime minister Eud Olmart as suspected of interfering in the tender for the state's controlling interest in Bank Leumi while serving as finance minister.

Athens MK 17:06 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london wt 16:20 GMT January 16, 2007

When I post here I am limited by what I can say since just to be on this forum I needed a limited waiver to allow my participation...

What I try to do is give an idea of where price action is and where I think it is headed in the market. If I can explain an action I will do so using common technical indicators but I must say we don't trade using common indicators so sometimes it is hard to explain how we come to that target area....

Now concerning cable the main target is 1.9523. Once that has been touch there are two more targets but the above one is the main target.

For those that follow trend lines we have two that intersect the 1.9720 area plus we have three tops at around 1.9740-50 so there are a lot of system traders that are range playing with this in mind. Quite a few traders had place sell orders at around 1.9680 -1.9715 giving them a good risk/reward ration for shorts down to the 1.95+ area... If it went against them then a close and reverse would put them in the profit and allow then to catch potential new highs.... It all depends on your strategies....

1.9843 for me is a level where if it is touched signifies a new wave that could peak 2.0+ so my strategy would be modified if that happens but as of yet we are not there.....

GL and GT

warsaw TOMi 17:04 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
catt,think by the end of the week targets wiill be achieved : €uro 2850 and cable 95? 94? sthg like this..

Naples DC 17:02 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man
small long at the low end of your range, wich is also S1
thight stop

hk ab 17:00 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
moves today are pretty interesting.

warsaw TOMi 16:58 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
to catt 16:56 GMT January 16, 2007

yeah man, no probs, just give us couple ofmio and will triple it within a quarter.. tia :-)

gl/gt

ABHA FXS 16:58 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   

http://abhafxsharmonic DOT blogspot DOT com/

SHORT GBP/JPY UPDATE

TARGET 231.65

FXS..

Como Perrie 16:57 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy better leave the carneage begin..too many big positions have been opened ahead of BOJ.. let It for the thursday fun

to catt 16:56 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
good werk Tomik
You can werk for me as my butler/trader

Como Perrie 16:54 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
be the fish with u

usd showing good signs of strenght back, despite negative usd from zew and ukppi.. tomorrow more from uk...

lovely that squeeze caddy and oil frns as well

Gen dk 16:48 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 16:47 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:39 GMT, many thanks.
Oil man, USD/CAD above 1.1740 not good for short now even it's a intraday trade.

Cannes Oil man 16:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
delray beach RMN 16:40 GMT January 16, 2007

We should know this by tomorrow , when BOJ makes the Rate annoucement...

tor Pumpkin 16:44 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:34 GMT January 16, 2007
it's not a position. It's last week's Chicago positions. But it's completely unreliable as the vast majority of liquidity in funds is in the toy, not on the IMM. What confounds the data is that i can take a position in Chicago, but square up in the toy. But it'll look like an open position on the IMM when in fact, i've got nothing on.

Gen dk 16:40 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

warsaw TOMi 16:40 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
to catt 16:36 GMT January 16, 2007

thanks catt, am shortn cable since 9666, 9702 and now 9635.

willlook for €uro to hit 2850 and will go from there.

delray beach RMN 16:40 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
cannes oil what is your 3 month view on usd/jpy ? do you see this move continuing or a top somewhere in the near future?

madrid mm 16:39 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin


Madrid mm 08:03 GMT January 15, 2007
Canadian Dollar Falls Prey to Hedge Funds as Crude, Copper Drop

By Haris Anwar

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Traders are making the biggest bets ever against the Canadian dollar.

Hedge funds and other large speculators started the year with a record C$8.5 billion ($7.2 billion) wagered that the currency will fall against the U.S. dollar. Canada's dollar tumbled to a 13-month low last week amid slower economic growth and a 33 percent slide in crude oil since July.

``There are all kinds of horrible things happening to the currency,'' said John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts Inc., a New York firm that manages $12 billion in currencies. ``Crude oil, lumber, and copper markets look ugly at this time. Most of the hedge funds are out of the Canadian-dollar trade, and I don't see any sign that they'll come back soon.'' Taylor exited bets on the currency in the summer.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=aa.xUnYwXS6E&refer=benchmark_currency_rates

Cannes Oil man 16:38 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Will remove the $/y 55 at entries , and keep 71 only for the rundown.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:38 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london wt 16:34 GMT //
good start!

Cannes Oil man 16:36 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Thanks , too bad i didn't play gbp today..
Anyways currently short 120.71/55 ..$CHF , E$ ..And a stop in $/CAD done...Will look this $/CAD , itching to sell but we're over the normal range , so have to see what it does from here , instead of loosing more pips , even though 1.1750 looks like a perfect short, burned once today on that bird, so keeping it cool.

to catt 16:36 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
tomil supprt was hit at 88
try sell now, its at the pivot point
target fibo at 9540
support S2 9529

warsaw TOMi 16:34 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
adding shorts €/$ 2938

cable 9635

1st target for €uro 2850.

HK Kevin 16:34 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
A business newspaper in Hong Kong today reported that hedge funds had invested CAD 8.5b in the market betting for further depreciation of the Canadian dlr due to the fall in oil price. Anyone have info about this news.?

london wt 16:34 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
ill start...

im currently in eurjpy. my reasons for this trade is on a 120 minute chart i setup monthly/weekly and daily pivots. it has just moved through monthly and retraced to test it. this is a typical swing trade and i entered a long at monthly (155.58)with a target of weekly r1 at 156.63. my stop is at 155.45

usd/jpy

new highs and is consolidating, this is a box play and im looking to enter an order just above 120.68 which is monthly r1 pivot.

gbp/usd

waiting for a fib retracement to 38 , then will loog for reversal for entry and the target will be the 178 exten of that retracement.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:26 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london wt 16:20 GMT //
right on point!!
I always try to understand when someone is posting levels how exactly he reached the conclusion - -
it will be for novice traders a real time lesson on trading strategy as well as for seasoned pros an exchange or fine tuning...

Cali mmm 16:24 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Good idea London. Tks.

Los Angeles Mojave 16:24 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Oil man --- thank you for the range on GB/USD. I entered near the top of your right on call and rode down. Many thanks for your insight and analysis --- correct as is so often the case.

Polokwane CS 16:23 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london wt , thanks for your advice , can you maybe give more info on important levels that you feel Oil man left out. Thanks .

london wt 16:20 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
i think this forum would be far more constructive if we not only spoke about levels but also the setups for those levels and the different setups we all use and how they work and how successful you all are. we can even look to share a site like esnipse to share charts to show more graphically. this would by far be a better forum if we all did that.. much better that screaming out levels and running around looking for help. the only way to become a better trader is by trading setups and sticking to the rules.... what do you all think about that.. if we all started to change the structure of this forum it would be a much better learning curve for all. !!!

warsaw TOMi 16:19 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 16:15 GMT January 16, 2007

oki doki,sticking to yr downside targets on cable..

€/$ downside open,once break 2860 - possible 2660. holding shorts for now.

Athens MK 16:15 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london wt 15:59 GMT January 16, 2007

Good advise wt.....

warsaw TOMi 16:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
catt, anything open? where is the target for cable now?

Cannes Oil man 16:03 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Pretty sure this is the high, and they fired to my risks. ..o well.

Gen dk 16:01 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cannes Oil man 16:01 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Out of $/CAD -24.

london wt 15:59 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
folks are you guys swing trading or scalping.. the questions your asking sound to me like you have no defined levels. oil man seems to have levels although he is missing some important ones the levels looks good. if you don't have defined levels and targets you will be eaten up. not only that but it also looks to me like you are just trading without any setups at all which is a plan for failure. to be successful in this game you need to know the levels before the trade, this gives you a plan and every setup has different money management strategies. i don't want to sound like a dick but 90% of traders out there get eaten up by the 10% who know what they doing, have a plan and stick to it. it sounds to me like your running around like chickens without heads looking for answers and you are going to get eaten alive in the market. can you tell me when you make a trade, do you have a defined plan? set out entry and targets with stops and a method for scaling out of a trade. if you don't have any of these then my advice is stop trading until you get a set of setups to watch for and stick to the rules when trading...

HK Kevin 15:51 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Test the water, entered very small short USD/JPY at 120.70.
For Cable, 1.9590 just tested and hold

hk ab 15:50 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
touched the dlr/jpy is for the rest of the people with conviction.

Cannes Oil man 15:50 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Manchester SA:
I'm not saying anything , those are calculated ranges which if there's no break either up or down work..
So far , only breaks were to the upside..(e$) , so unless 1.2914 breaks it's all clear.

gl gt

Cannes Oil man 15:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Range is what i posted, it should hold, break however would mean a run down...

Sold $/CAD 1.1706.

Gen dk 15:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Manchester SA 15:44 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Oil man...................

are you that we've now seen a bottom on Cable?...................

Cannes Oil man 01:37 GMT January 16, 2007
$Y 120.71---120.12
GBPUSD 1.9696--1.9589

Regards, SA

Cannes Oil man 15:43 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
BTW NZD was 6933//6995...not 6633..typo.

HK Kevin 15:43 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Closed 2nd half short Cable at 1.9601.

Cannes Oil man 15:38 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Don't know how more clear one could be :

Cannes Oil man 01:37 GMT January 16, 2007
$Y 120.71---120.12
GBPUSD 1.9696--1.9589
EURUSD 1.2958//1.2914
NZD .6695 //6933
$/CAD 1.1705 //1.1657
AUDUSD .7855//7822
EURJPY 155.21 //156.41
$CHF 1.2513//1.2455
GBPJPY 237.61//235.45
EURCHF 1.6175//1.6122
GBPCHF 2.4598//2.4452

hk ab 15:29 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy now carries 1 pip stop.

Abu Dubi Oil Slick 15:27 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london wt 15:19 GMT January 16, 2007
thanks WT...crystal clear..not like oil man..

london wt 15:19 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
cable is due a retracement, look for 38 retracement and enter there, going long cable now is dangerous, eurgbp is going up too which will support cable selling, my advice get out now. you should have a tight stop trading at top end of rallies , not that thats a good way to trade !

ABU Dubi Oil Slick 15:15 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
My gbp long is under water..any advice..apart from oil man?

Athens MK 15:14 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Hi Oil man... You could be right and if price action breaks 1.9843 for me then I look to close and reverse my positions if I have any open at the time....

Right now my prefer selling area was in the 1.9670-1.9715 range so I am in the profit so to speak. Looking for the targets that I show below... My stops are brought to my sell entry now so I really just have to sit back and let it play out.....

GL GT

==================================
Athens MK 16:56 GMT January 15, 2007
GBP/$:

target 1: 1.9523 main target
target 2: 1.9460 secondary
target 3: 1.9403 happy target :)

If 1.9843 is broken close and reverse for at least 1.9943 and potentially higher...
=================================

HK Kevin 15:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 15:03 GMT, Cable broke 1.9590 resistance (now support) yestersay, just covered half short position here at 1.9612.

Cannes Oil man 15:03 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
GBP$ looks quite tired , on charts.

Thought the range for the day (posted last night ) was :

1.9695--1.9585..So we could be near the bottom here, as upside was touched earlier...

HK Kevin 14:56 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 14:50 GMT, 1.9620 gone. I am short cable from 1.9662.

Gen dk 14:55 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Athens MK 14:55 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 10:44 GMT January 16, 2007
GBP/$: 1.9624 area is a good price level to break to continue intraday bearish bias. Expect to see accelerated selling once that occurs...

hk ab 14:51 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
euro dive, gold bounces, euro rises, gold jumps.

Athens MK 14:50 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Still waiting for 1.9620-25 area to be broken for the first leg down to 1.9523 target...... Only if 1.9843 is broken will I consider a new trend is taking place....

hk ab 14:31 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Can all explained by shorting eur/XAU, chf/XAU and gbp/XAU?

hk ab 14:23 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
martin, tonight gold movement doesn't looks like long holiday exit but new entry of gold long.... wave 3 now.

lugano fc 14:13 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
closed usdjpy short

lugano fc 14:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
short usd , short sp500 , long crude.

Cannes Oil man 14:09 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
120.10 goes , and a close below it , will pull $/Y towards 119.30 followed by 118.60 , 117.40..Once it starts , always hard to stop that train..

Cannes Oil man 14:07 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
For $CAD , system still points towards 1.1460 (as said for some time now)..Today might be another trigger...System still short from 1.1766 With stops now at 1.1726...And no i didn't follow this trade fully as i ran out of patience ..

CT Cris 14:03 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Polokwane CS 13:58 GMT January 16, 2007
CT Cris what is your view on GBPUSD ? Thanks.

======
heading toward 19700 in uptrend sideways.

West Ham oldgroyne 14:01 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Psychologically, hope must now be beginning to set in. Here's hoping that those of you that are hoping - get your price!

Polokwane CS 13:58 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris what is your view on GBPUSD ? Thanks.

SVK rosso 13:56 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Empire State Business Conditions Index 9.13, lowest since Oct 2005 !

Mtl JP 13:53 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
14:00GMT - Bank of Canada interest rate announcement
expectation: 4.25% last: 4.25%

SVK rosso 13:48 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD long from 1.9660 SL 1.19630

SVK rosso 13:42 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Totally agree with you cannes...

CT Cris 13:42 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
usd.jpy buy 120.50-60 tp 121.00.

Cannes Oil man 13:39 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Will place stops to entry on E$ once prices are above 1.3020.

Vancouver Mike 13:38 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:37 GMT // Very well said.

Cannes Oil man 13:37 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
You manage your risk , risk this or that in each trade..But you don't hope..Hope prices comes back , hope i will be ok...No..You can hope tomorrow will rain, but don't hope for prices..

Cannes Oil man 13:34 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
NO HOPE..Never hope..Hope is for loosers.

lugano fc 13:31 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
agree oil....also short usd against eur chf and jpy...let see...and hope ....

hk ab 13:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
oilman, shorted one from 74, tight stop.

Cannes Oil man 13:27 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
120.71 was range high, so far it's staying within bounds though , ab..
Short 120.70 looks good..I m already short now though.
Have to see if this e$ holds 1.2930 and all is fine.
gl gt

Philadelphia Caba 13:27 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:24 GMT
more cleaning job before BOJ?

Gen dk 13:25 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 13:24 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
oilman, dlr/jpy momentum looks crazy.

Cannes Oil man 13:14 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Long e$ 1.2960.
shorted $/Y 120.56.

hk ab 13:14 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
this euro and yen have the fun whole day bouncing....
oilman's right, range......

Vancouver Mike 13:01 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Toronto. Even if inflation has crept up more in December, like in UK still no chance of a hike? Inflation has been running above their 2% target for last few months. Just wondering. Thanks again.

Toronto 12:57 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Mike, no chance

HK Kevin 12:56 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 11:30 GMT, all the best in the Year of the Pig

Vancouver Mike 12:56 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Any possibility of BoC hiking rates a quarter point?

Syd 12:43 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Global=View 11:55 GMT thanks

West Ham oldgroyne 12:33 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 12:00 GMT January 16, 2007

Ain't that the truth...

Amsterdam Lurk Lurkson 12:22 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
E/Y i will short at 15636, if seen, w/ tight sl for 20 pips

hastings 12:09 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
oil tanking, time to steam in and buy soon

RIC fxq 12:00 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
West Ham oldgroyne 11:04

judging from mkt action and forum posters, the correct phrase seems to be usd-phobia

we shall se who is correct in the fullness of time

Global=View 11:55 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Syd meant the Futures Forum. (name has been changed).. see Futures Forum

Syd 11:55 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london av 11:45 GMT futures forum down the left side

Syd 11:54 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london av 11:45 GMT Financial Forum at the top below the censored bank fx the list of forums

london av 11:45 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
syd, where is that article

Syd 11:40 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
ASSET CLASS:UK Property, Riskier Than Ever
Apart from a niggling bout of inflation - more a rash than an infection, really - the U.K. economy is in sparkling health. Isn't it?

full article Financial Forum

Mumbai NS 11:39 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
All the best Purky i am sure u wuld be having some reasons which i respect and being a reader is better many a times.All the best gl gt

Vancouver Mike 11:35 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 11:30 GMT // Take care. Sad to see you're leaving. GL and GTs.

manchester 11:34 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
jaap, why not posting?

EU theEUROqueen 11:33 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
usd-euphoria will end soon..

happy trades

The Netherlands Purk 11:30 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Well gentlepeople, it is time for the Purk to say bye bye to this forum on the posting bit. I shall visit for reading. I whish everybody luck. Maybe in a few months i will return.
I would like to thank those who took the time to teach me a fair bit, and thank others for the opposite.
I would also like to thank all the people that used names as Purk sr. jr, Alicia, nextdoorneighbour and so on, believe me, it was not me. Special thanks to mr. Martin from the Goldcoast. Good this is not my funeral btw...
I will focus on rangetrading for a while.
Cheers all!

Global-View 11:30 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read ... Full Mellon FX Daily report :

Day Ahead
US – the NY Fed survey is due today and this has been fairly strong in recent months, in contrast to the more subdued showings in the ISM and Philly Fed reports. For these reasons the market will want to see more than today’s data before casting further judgement on the state of the manufacturing sector. The Philly Fed survey is due on Thursday.

Canada – the Bank of Canada are likely to leave rates unchanged today and the main focus will be on the accompanying statement to see whether they are placing more weight on the prospect of slower activity. Some of the data out of Canada has remained poor (retail and manufacturing sales), while employment has been strong and the latest export data was also slightly better. At its last meeting on Dec 5 the BoC highlighted the US economy as a key downside risk for the Canadian economy and while US prospects have improved slightly since then, recent comments from Dodge seemed to show additional concern about such factors. On January 8 he said that the weakness in automotive and housing sectors in the US were a problem for Canada. Overall, while they will likely note that some weak signs remain, a major downgrade of their basic view of the situation seems unlikely. However, there may be more comments about recent CAD weakness being justified given the declines in key commodity prices. More information on their views will be revealed in Thursday’s Policy Update.

The CAD has currently lapsed into correction mode, which is not that surprising given the record spec CAD shorts reported for last Tuesday in the latest IMM data. The tone of today’s statement will be critical to how this now develops. 1.1740 needs to be won back to raise the risk of another test of 1.1800, while support is at 1.1575-1.1600.

New Zealand – Q4 CPI data tonight will need to be soft to neutralise the threat of a rate hike on January 25. The headline y/y rate is likely to fall considerably (to +2.8% from +3.5%) due to weaker fuel prices, although the RBNZ is already anticipating this and has indicated that it will look beyond such energy driven volatility. There are a whole gamut of core measures the RBNZ looks at and these are ranging from +2.7% to +3.6% at the current time. How these perform will influence the following week’s rate decision, while Friday’s retail sales will also be significant. The strength of household demand is a key factor behind RBNZ concern over upside risks to inflation.
... Full Mellon FX Daily report

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 10:46 GMT // gr8!!
appreciate it.

Cannes Oil man 11:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Added shorts 1.2432 $CHF.
GL GT , and off this time.

West Ham oldgroyne 11:04 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
I think "Euro-euphoria" is more like it.

Cannes Oil man 10:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Under 1.24 i have (for $chf) , nothing till 1.22 , will be a fast move..

Euphoria (quoting SNB ross , yet again) , will soon end on $chf.
Just looked before leaving.

U.K. J.B 10:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
manchester 10:45 GMT January 16, 2007

1.9715= trend line...

pd cumino 10:46 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:40 GMT January 16, 2007
I will add on the next report a page with notes for the graphs.

manchester 10:45 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
can someone suggest a resistance level for cable at the moment that it needs to pass before pushing up

Athens MK 10:44 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: 1.9624 area is a good price level to break to continue intraday bearish bias. Expect to see accelerated selling once that occurs...

Cannes Oil man 10:44 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Incredible i was able to grab 7835 long ozi , after that zew (with e$ at 1.2980).
Nice gift.

Back in a hour.
gl gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:40 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 10:36 GMT
hello - appreciate your COT analyses you produce for GV - just wanted to ask if possible a little legend or some brief instructions accompanying the graphs?
It will add great value for novice traders like me that don't actually understand how to read those charts... TIA!

pd cumino 10:36 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
I think differently. Never mind.

Cannes Oil man 10:33 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
May and if is not a good sign for a trader...it engenders HOPE...Hope = fear...fear = losses, cumino.

gl

Cannes Oil man 10:32 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
$CHF euphoria is about to end..Buckle up , and stops to entry on the 1.2490 shorts.(see previous entry and multiple "sell as close aas possible to 1.2490)...TP looks ready for 1.20.
gl gt

pd cumino 10:31 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Only God knows what will be. Humans should use some: may be, IMO, perhaps...

Cannes Oil man 10:25 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
As said last week euro next phase is at 1.34...The stops when posted were 40 pips..Now they are 100 pips...tomorrow they will be 150 pips...and in a few days , we will be at 1.34...with gbp well above 1.98.

gl gt

Mumbai NS 10:23 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
see eurgbp

manchester 10:19 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
oil man, where do you see cable going now then? why has the price dropped from the 19700 level

Genoa nic 10:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
a better than expectred german ZEW

Syd 10:12 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD is largely unimpressed by an improvement in both the January ZEW expectations indicator (-3.6 vs -9 seen) and current conditions (70.6 vs 63.5 in December). The rate added a quick 5 ticks to 1.2972 but is now back down to pre-data levels. The Royal Bank of Scotland pegs support between 1.2925-15; resistance at 1.2990.

Auckland trotter 10:09 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Someone just placed a large trade on the EUR/USD for it to hit 1.2979 (ref: my previous post). Didn’t expect that sudden movement. Any explanations?

Now taking profit on the retraction.

Cannes Oil man 10:08 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Looking to the otherside is the prefered way...The GBP$ is at 1.97 nearly , not sure how you can call GBP$ down..

Anyways euro is ready today to tackle 1.3050 , and gbp$ 1.9760 (see target last week).
$Chf 1.20 EOW..
GL GT

mex sjs 10:06 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
athens mk, i agree with you in your mt view regarding gbp, but i think you might get an above 1.97 price this is when euro is above 1.3000, then good moment to long usd big time...gl & gt

Athens MK 10:05 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Now that we have the news out of the way lets get down to some trading.......

System targets are looking for 1.9523 as the first target....

Athens MK 10:00 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Monthly viewpoint and discussion:

GBP/$: Weekly momentum is still down and this is actually a good level to go short if you trade off of long-term time frames......

For those that trade longer term a good level to target is 1.9028 by next month or so...

What are your opinions???

manchester 09:57 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
did anyone catch the 9700 short cable?

Haifa ac 09:51 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
london av 09:30 GMT January //Thanks/
GVI had it at 8:30 GMT.

Auckland trotter 09:48 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Taken profit on the EUR/USD at 1.2969 as this appears to be a level of resistance on the 5min 12hr chart has and is around the 23.6% fib on the 4hr 20 day chart - the 4hr chart, ref my previous posting being the one that doesn’t ‘fit the picture’.

We shall now see if there is a short retraction or not.

manchester 09:43 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
any opinions on cable now?

Athens MK 09:42 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Now the UK CPI is out of the way let's get the ZEW out as well. If it goes accordingly or worse then the consensus we should be on our way lower with cable...

NY R19 09:42 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
GBP //// No letter! Yeah! Now spec turns to whether there was something in addition to the high CPI!

Vancouver Mike 09:37 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
highest since 1997...

Madrid mm 09:36 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
UK CPI dec 2006 +3.00% bbc 5live

Govmnt target is +2.0%

Baltimore Zoltan 09:35 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
UK CPI 3.0%

London JBS 09:35 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
uk cpi 3.0

london av 09:30 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
ac, i think cpi number will be announced in few mins, expect it to be high

Gen dk 09:04 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 08:45 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
M&A Outflows Hit AUD The Worst In 2007
M&A activity remains muted as 2007 gets underway, but the AUD appears to be getting the worst of it. The latest data from Deutsche Bank shows there were $1.1B of ouflows since the start of the year. The NOK is doing best with $800M of inflows

Syd 08:42 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
RICS warns that the BoE's interest hikes are beginning to bite as it reports the balance of surveyors seeing higher house price was at 37.0 in December from 46.9 in November, the lowest reading since August 2005. RICS adds that last week's surprise 25bp rate hike would likely have a further impact in coming months.

Haifa ac 08:41 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
what was UK cpi?

Auckland trotter 08:37 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
General pressure on the EUR/USD I see as up across several time charts, although around 1.2979 appears to be a level to break from the 1wk 3r chart.

The 4hr chart appears to be the exception. It has been ‘out of step’ with the other time charts recently, but it appears to be turning to the up, giving a resistance level around 1.2979.

The 1hr and 5min charts appear to be in need of some correction.

Have bounced short trades on the correction just prior to the opening of the EUR market.

I see the level to watch at the moment is around 1.2950 from the 1hr 5day chart.

UK market yet to open, and a EUR and US fundamental due out.

Athens MK 08:34 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:20 GMT January 16, 2007

I am in favor of cable going down, 83% in favor... :) We do have the UK CPI coming out and that does have the ability to cause some ripples in the price action for today.

Basically the currency has stretch to a point where we have an 83% chance for a rebound to occur. Now if it continues to stretch it will "snap" thus continuing to go higher in price. My point where I define that "snap" is at the 1.9843 level. If that happens I can count on the price action to continue up at least another 100 pips but usually it is more then that so I implement a close and reverse order.

If you look on the 8 hour chart you can see that the stretch has occurred and there is a trendline resistance at the 1.9715-20 level. It thus makes sense to place a sell at these levels minimizing your potential losses while targeting the levels I gave below.

Either way you can play both ways and end up winning....

KL KL 08:30 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
ok ninja locking in 2 pip for coffee later + maybe 1 nice cake....can't lose from here on gbpusd short

Sydney ACC 08:20 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 08:06 GMT January 16, 2007
Athens your views on GBP have been very good recently, which way do you lean to the upside or the downside. Your comments today seem to signal that you are undecided as to the direction.

Athens MK 08:06 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
===============================
Athens MK 16:56 GMT January 15, 2007
GBP/$:

target 1: 1.9523 main target
target 2: 1.9460 secondary
target 3: 1.9403 happy target :)

If 1.9843 is broken close and reverse for at least 1.9943 and potentially higher...
================================

For those that like range playing the 1.9715-20 level is a good resistance IF the currency is to go bearish from 1.9670-85 price. 1.9843 for me is the breaking point if the currency is to go on a new trend setting new highs for this year.

GL GT

KL KL 08:02 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
UK CPI may trigger gbpusd fall....and gold too. Aussie Gold stocks flat after bounce at open and with crude holiday weekend premium erased....time to short is Ninja play today...

Do in short gbpusd 1.9672 sl 84 prefer to catch near 1.9684....lets see ...maybe add a bit higher and see how it goes!! imho and SL is the name of the game

Syd 07:57 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Tocom platinum, palladium close lower in delayed reaction to weekend reports Russia has ended export quotas on precious metals, says Hong Kong-based trader. Benchmark December platinum down Y53 at Y4,337/gram; December palladium down Y7 at Y1,300/gram. Tips both metals to drop another $20 on spot market as players sell in fear that end to export quota may lead to oversupply. Spot platinum at $1,135/oz, down $14 from Johnson Matthey Monday price, palladium at $328.50/oz, down $6.50.

Madrid mm 07:31 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Market Focus - Attention turns to the Empire State report and for the latest sign of improvement in the manufacturing sector.

Empire State Mfg Survey - 8.30 ET
Released on 1/16/07 For Jan 2007
General Business Conditions Index, Level
Consensus - 20.0

Bank of Canada Announcement
9:00ET

Madrid mm 07:17 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Official (KNCA) reported North Korea has accused US and Japan of conspiring to start a war on the Korean Peninsula.

PBoC having set the mid rate below key 7.7900 to 7.7895, below yesterday's closing and new lows of 7.7915.

UK RICS house price +37.0 in 3 months to Dec, from +46.9 in 3 months to Nov, its weakest in 4 months since August NZ NZIER QSBO business confidence net coming in at +3%, from -18%.

FT: A battle raged in the aluminium market between one investor holding a $1.7bn long position against a number of shorts who are equally determined that prices will fall

To hike or not to hike - Question for BoJ, To ask for Delay or not - Question for Japan Govt. To buy or sell JPY - question for the markets, as USD/JPY continues to be locked in tight range of 120.32 to 120.63, with focus on BoJ on Thursday, though market has more or less priced in a hike afte recent reports.

USD/JPY hit day highs of 120.63 on broad based Japanese mega-city banks buying for fixing, set at 120.61, but pair of UK clearers out of HK, speculation of China/ Asian CBs, Asia acccounts capping topside, together with large Japanese trust banks sales, offering it lower and pushing it to day lows of 120.32, though some focus on N Korea news that US, Japan planning to invade. Good offers still 120.80-121. Talks of Huge 117-121 DNT Options expiry tomorrow.

GBP/JPY off >8yr highs 5 month highs of 237 after strong buying yest, from M.E., Russian, Japanese, but talks of more interest to buy, with possible bids linked to huge Y2.2trn Japan Tobacco-Gallaher M+A.

EUR/USD firmer, hit day highs of 1.2954 on M,E, European buying, while EUR/JPY finding demand on dips, with Japanese investores, houses still looking to buy on dips to 155.50-60.

NZD rose on firmer NZ QSBO, while AUD/NZD dipped from 1.13 to 1.1245-50. GBP/USD hit lows of 1.9625 after weaker UK RICS of +37, lowest in 4 months, focus on UK CPI - to see if it will have 3 handle.

Some focus on AUD, CAD, commodities front, with huge "battle" seen in Aluminium markets, any selloff which could weigh on Commodities. CAD eye BoC at 1400GMT - no change, EUR eye ZEW.

Nikkei a tad lower -7.46pts at 17,202. JGBs a tad lower ahead of BoJ Decision. 10-yr yield unch at 1.740%.

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 120.32/120.63, EUR/USD 1.2932/1.2954, GBP/USD 1.9625/1.9665, USD/CHF 1.2468/1.2499, AUD/USD 0.7823/0.7843, NZD/USD 0.6947/0.6970.

hk ab 06:51 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
bought some silver as well.

hk ab 06:05 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
incredible, the dlr/jpy look for a quick dive to 119.50 and then strong bounce back if tomorrow is a 0.25.

Syd 04:55 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Market was pricing a 77% chance of a 25bp hike at the policy board meeting as of Tuesday morning, according to Credit Suisse Securities.

Sydney ACC 04:38 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his board colleagues will probably lift the key overnight lending rate to 0.5 percent at a meeting concluding Jan. 18, according to 35 of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

I hope they're not the same 52 analysts Bloomberg consulted about the UK interest rate decision.

Syd 04:31 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
BOJ May Raise Rates From 0.25% to Prevent Bubble Risk
Mayumi Otsuma
(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan may raise its benchmark lending rate from 0.25 percent, stepping up efforts to head off an investment bubble.

Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his board colleagues will probably lift the key overnight lending rate to 0.5 percent at a meeting concluding Jan. 18, according to 35 of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Syd 04:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Nigeria Oil Min: Oversupply In Oil Mkt "Substantial"
:No Comment On Possibility Of Emergency OPEC Mtg

Alaska Moon 03:04 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 02:50 GMT January 16, 2007
==-=====
Thanks, Oil man for your effort !! Your input is MUCH APPRECIATED...
Moon

Cannes Oil man 02:50 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Well the ccy's need to start moving tomorrow against the US$, they barely moved , and already starting to look heavy , even though it's consolidation phase, moving up over yesterday's high is needed..

As I've been saying on other side for a week or two, this definitely start to look like range trading..

Maybe we get a surprise with BOJ on wednesday.
anyways GN and GT.

Syd 02:26 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Japan '06 Corp Goods Prices Biggest Jump Since 1980

Japanese corporate goods prices rose at the fastest pace in 26 years last year due to soaring costs of raw materials and as capital spending remained strong, Bank of Japan data showed Tuesday.

The jump in the CGPI signaled that the Japanese economy has continued to expand and adds to upbeat data that may make it easier for the central bank to raise its policy interest rate this week.


Syd 02:09 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Japan Omi: Not In Situation To Seek BOJ Vote Delay
Want BOJ To Support Econ Through Policy
Policy Specifics Up To BOJ To Determine
Consumption Not So Weak
Japan Econ On Firm Footing
Expect BOJ To Make Appropriate Policy Decision


China government bond index down at 111.49 vs 111.52 previous close, as tightening concerns persist after China says end-December M2 up 16.9% on year, picking up from end-November's 16.8% growth. "Investors are cautious after the M2 data. It's possible for China to raise the interest rate before the Lunar New Year holiday (which starts mid February) if there's a strong rise in December CPI," says Qu Qing at Shenyin Wanguo Securities. Market rumors suggest December CPI +2.8% on year, much higher than November's +1.9%. Key 7-year bond at 97.50 vs 97.00 last close, yield 2.96% vs 3.05%

Cali mmm 01:43 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
OK ,Thank you.

Cannes Oil man 01:42 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Yes valid till US open.

Cali mmm 01:40 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, are these estimated ranges ?

Cannes Oil man 01:37 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
$Y 120.71---120.12
GBPUSD 1.9696--1.9589
EURUSD 1.2958//1.2914
NZD .6695 //6933
$/CAD 1.1705 //1.1657
AUDUSD .7855//7822
EURJPY 155.21 //156.41
$CHF 1.2513//1.2455
GBPJPY 237.61//235.45
EURCHF 1.6175//1.6122
GBPCHF 2.4598//2.4452

This is indicative until 14GMT.
GL.

NY RP 01:34 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone think there are players out there that thought GBP/JPY party was over and went short sub 230.00? Glad to not be a GBP/JPY trader. GL

NY RP 01:31 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
With the Dollar being a non event, meaning no immediate trend, the dollar can and will be looked at in many different ways. For example the Yen spent most of 2006 between 115 and 119. This period included the first rate hike in years and potentially a turn around from deflationas the domestic economy shows signs of life. All this chatter about the USD/JPY moving substantially higher is likely (as anything is) but realistically premature. Of course a cheaper Yen has been helpful, but costly in accumulating massive dollar exposure.
It seems as it the Japanese Gov't is doing a fine job of talking the Yen lower. Looking back recently the Yen has been 105 and 120 with ZERO rates. How the story unfolds could be a bit nasty, but my bet is a weaker dollar theme will come back into the markets. What sets it off is the question and how high the USD/JPY trades before reality sets in. Just my thoughts. The entertainer fo the month goes to GBP. What a mover and a shaker.

Philadelphia Caba 01:28 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
almost 100% 'strategists' and 'market analyticts' voting for 'JPY likely won't rise, even if BOJ hike ....' .............

Sydney ACC 01:25 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 01:20 GMT January 16, 2007
NZD/JPY

Syd 01:23 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab yen would strengthen across the board on fear of what they might know that the markets dont

hk ab 01:20 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
syd, for 50 bp, which pair do you think will tank the fastest? a/j? e/j? or u/j?

Syd 01:17 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 01:11 GMT another possiblity 50bps would be a shocker

hk ab 01:11 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
syd, another possibility is that jap sans exit with their fatty e/j profit to enter u/j?

Philadelphia Caba 01:11 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 01:01 GMT
didn't yen almost touch 100 vs $ with BOJ at 0.0 ?

Syd 01:06 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:57 GMT If theres gossip its the BOJ and as you say repatriation starts soon, seems market being primed with all these rumours

Porto Genius 01:03 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Time to short eur/usd at 1.2926 ;)

hk ab 01:02 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
I think lots of money will rush to jap mkt 'cos the exporters have got an unusual gift from the sky. Their anticipation was 114, now it could well be 135. It's a 20% increment without DOING ANYTHING.....

hk ab 01:01 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
this jpy can easily go to 135 without any stops before end of Feb.....IF there's no HIKE.

ABHA FXS 00:59 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:55 GMT January 16, 2007
D-revers 1.9883
revers rang max 1.9697

Singapore GFx 00:58 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Hk Ab,

heard the same thing, no BOJ rate hike.

dc CB 00:57 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:32 GMT January 16, 2007
Sydney ACC and theres more , someone is getting panicky ?

I'm anticipating a JPY rise also. Plus it's getting to be near that spring repat time. Been collecting March JPY calls on the IMM/ CME exchange...cheap when compared to the puts...seems the lean is to the downside (lower Yen), leaving 60 days for this to resolve.

hk ab 00:56 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
the gossip telling no hike on Thur?

Sydney ACC 00:55 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 00:45 GMT January 16, 2007

Best of luck!
I guess if the CPI prints below 3% today GBP will surrender some of its gains. My gut feel is that BoE moved early because the level is approaching 3% when teh Governor has to write the open letter to the Chancellor but probably more importantly to influence the pay negotiations In January. Moving earlier than expected sends a message that they are vserious about inflation.
Notwithstanding that for GBP to move back to teh pre-announcement levels of the low 1.93's will need some strength from USD following its data.

ABHA FXS 00:45 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 20:55 GMT January 15, 2007
http://abhafxsharmonicdotblogspotdotcom/

gbpusd updat

target1 1.9415
target2 1.9349

Syd 00:36 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Time is right to fade the EUR/GBP move, says Goldman Sachs; recommends long EUR/GBP positions at current level around 0.6585 with tight 1-day stop on a close below 0.6545. "While we think GBP could see a big correction this year, we view this trade as fairly short-term and we would set a conservative target of 0.6700." Says in general, GBP strength over past year mainly function of a series of monetary surprises (unexpected BOE tightening); while it's been hard to call end of BOE tightening cycle and it's possible MPC's not done, "we do not expect further tightening from here."

Syd 00:32 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC and theres more , someone is getting panicky ?

If BOJ hesitates on rates this week, JPY will be exposed to more meaningful downside risk as most other central banks tighten further, says Morgan Stanley's Stephen Jen; "I wonder how much longer it will take for the BOJ to start to take the weak yen into more explicit consideration. But the risk of a future collapse in dollar/yen is something the BOJ should (also) take into consideration." Question of MOF intervention may be raised by investors, policy-makers: MOF hasn't, since 2000 or so, sold USD/JPY below 125 or bought it above 125; "setting this historical fact aside I personally believe the MOF should seriously consider intervention. This weakening trend in the yen is hurting general investor sentiment on Japan. It erodes the external purchasing power of Japanese consumers, attracts unwanted political attention from the U.S. and Euroland, and risks abruptly reversing later this year when the BOJ hikes rates. The weak yen is starting to be a problem for Japan."(

Sydney ACC 00:27 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:11 GMT January 16, 2007
More
Our contributor from Paris would love this he's always seeing BOJ intervention pushing JPY lower.
Its hysterical, MOF have been pleading with BOJ not to increase interest rates. Mind you I'd love to see something like this USD/JPY would probably lose 3 big figures in a blink.

Syd 00:11 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
More

Japan FX Intervention "Not Inconceivable" -UBS

Yen has weakened to lowest levels in a year vs USD while hitting two decade lows in real effective terms, says UBS; "as risk-seeking investors globally continue to favor high yielding assets, the yen remains undermined by very low Japanese interest rates." In Japan, FX responsibility lies with MOF and in last few months its officials have become more wary about JPY weakness, though they've not stopped its slide. MOF has 3 options, says UBS: Could jawbone, could leave BOJ to get on with hiking rates or could directly intervene in FX market; "the latter isn't inconceivable so investors should be aware of renewed warnings from officials about the yen."(

Syd 00:07 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:54 GMT I agree with you , I have never like UBS always find them off the mark and as you say now try to fix it

Alaska Moon 00:00 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:54 GMT January 15, 2007
======
It is for sure.....We all know that "jawboning" is one form of intervention... LOL
Moon

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:00 GMT January 16, 2007 Reply   
Now that trading is over for the day pretty much, I noted a post earlier today sort of comparing gold (holding more or less steady) with copper, an industrial metal. Gold is also an industrial metal but in addition of course it's a hedge against whatever the buyers hedge for, betting gold will be supported when investment X isn't. So it's no wonder that gold and copper aren't following each other. China was a huge copper buyer...likely it'd be wise to look into China's demand for CU for a start. We aren't going to trade FX until around March as then we percieve the market stable enough to again look to FX for possible PREDICTABLE long term gains.

 




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