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Forex Forum Archive for 01/17/2007

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Cannes Oil man 23:58 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Semji look below i posted more or less everything on the board with their ranges.

Baltimore Zoltan 23:56 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Syd!! Re:
syd 23:55 GMT January 17, 2007

syd 23:55 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
BOJ anouncement around 12.30 tokyo, but with no set time can be anywhere from 12.10-12.50

kuala lumpur semiji 23:54 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd range ,,,, anyone now ?

Syd 23:40 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:30 agree cant see them missing the opportunity 25bp

Cannes Oil man 23:30 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
I m going to do like par:


SONY has made a great console , the playstation x , the boj will raise the rates.

Baltimore Zoltan 23:28 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
What time is the BoJ rate announcement? Thanks!!

pd cumino 23:28 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
To say more, not very much will change in economic terms if they hike tomorrow or at February. But that is not the same in political terms. If they think that, and if they are clever, I guess they will stay on hold. We will see.

Sydney ACC 23:19 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:41 GMT January 17, 2007
RBA bulletin due out at 11.30 EST today in approx 75 minutes.

Zurich 23:11 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Thanks oil man

Zurich 23:10 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
102.32---103.16 cadjpy

1.0601---1.0663 cadjpy

Cannes Oil man 23:10 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
ok last one is CADCHF not cadjpy..

Cannes Oil man 23:09 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
No error 102.3 to 103.1 or so ...no 2?

pd cumino 23:08 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
london pk 23:01 GMT January 17, 2007
Everyone are with you. A sufficient reason for your bet.
I don't bet my house on BOJ on hold. First because I have a very precious and beautiful house, second because mine is just an unconventional thinking.

Cannes Oil man 23:07 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Model still short on oil from 63.67..But should reverse any time soon , if prices consolidate..Interesting...Guess this could help my beloved euro.

zurich 23:06 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
2 cad/jpy is what i meant

ZURICH 23:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

your cad/jpy is there an error?

Cannes Oil man 23:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Oil : 51.27---53.54..looks like we might be bottoming..(sweet 2007 CLG7).

Cannes Oil man 23:02 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Never bet your house if you want to keep it..

london pk 23:01 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
i would put my house on BOJ raising.

Cannes Oil man 23:00 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
1.2976----1.2884 E$.
1.2427---1.2521 $CHF.
1.9767---1.9629 GBP/USD.
120.07---121.18 $/Y
6879---6962 NZD$.
7828---7894 AUDUSD
2.8313---2.8572 GBP/NZD
1.1686---1.1789 usd/CAD
1.6355---1.6575 eur/aud
6.9654---7.0621 usd/Sek
82.91---83.97 nzd/jpy
1.8606---1.8776 eur/nzd
155.24---156.67 eurjpy
6552---6601 eurgbp
236.03---238.71 (keeps rising this one, can see it from ranges).
5.7437--5.7728 usddkk
6.3971---6.4816 usdnok
1.1265---1.1412 audnzd
1.5111---1.5232 eurcad
1.6108---1.6158 eurchf
2.4422---2.4652 gbpchf
2.4931---2.5147 gbpaud
2.3027---2.3205 gbpcad (incredible..we were at 2.15 not long ago , my target 2.98 approaching look archives).
96.03---9716 chfjpy
9164---9257 audcad
9417---9537 audjpy
102.32---103.16 cadjpy
621.23---638.42 Gold
12.54---13.47 silver
12557---12608 DJI
1.0601---1.0663 cadjpy.

This is valid till tomorrow , ranges are a bit wider as we approach into the week...GL.

pd cumino 22:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Personally I am more skewed to a Japan rates on hold Thursday.
Anyway moves will be gradual and interest in the yen as a funding vehicle will remain strongly intact.
USD JPY history compared to i.r. spreads, i.e. when reducing spreads starts to have effects, and considering global growth at the time, is a lesson that everyone should have in mind IMHO.

LKWD JJ 22:41 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC when rba reports due out tonight/today?

Sydney ACC 22:28 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:09 GMT January 17, 2007
If the implications are huge for a 25 bp increase from 0.25% what about the same increase from zero last July?
Seriously, though if there is an increase the market will then focus on what Fukii has to say later. If he indicates the next increase could be some time later then this one will have little lasting effect on the carry trade and Uridashis. On the other hand if he maintains a hawkish posture then watch out. further flows will dry up and there ought to be some profit taking. The latter would seem unlikely given the governments jawboning.
At the moment no one knows for sure.

AZUSA 4X-ed 22:28 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Jay,

Not sure why one of your sponsors that makes use of Flash ads, installs a Flash tag that cannot be removed from a user's PC. This is the file in question: "core.sol" - 53 bytes. Also, my antispyware software tags this file as "spyware". Is there anything that can be done besides disabling the Flash Player to resolve this problem?

LKWD JJ 22:18 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
cable has interesting chart development. 1.9760 are would be a 3pl top breakout from 12/20 and 1/3 highs. might just be catalyst for 2bucks!. looking to buy @ 85.

re: usdjpy support @ 40 holding for possible up move to much talked about 121.30s area. when its so obviuos it doesnt always happen.

Syd 22:14 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
PHOENIX Yellen: Has No Timetable For Inflation To Move Lower
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said Wednesday that she has no formal expectation as to when she is likely to see inflation levels reside within her comfort zone.

"I don't have a timetable for that," Yellen said in response to a reporter's question. Yellen has argued, along with many other Fed officials, that the current level of core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, is above the levels that are consistent with price stability. But Fed officials haven't said, even as they have begun to acknowledge some cooling in price pressures, when they want to see inflation level off.

Yellen explained that even as she continues to worry about the inflation outlook, her main interest is that she "would like to see (inflation) pointing in the right direction" and that it "will continue to come down."

Her comments came after a speech in Phoenix, in an address given to local educators. In her speech, she noted she remained confident that the current level of monetary policy will bring price pressures back to levels acceptable to the Fed. Yellen: Has No Timetable For Inflation To Move Lower

Cannes Oil man 22:09 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
to me the implecations are huge..The BOJ will effectively DOUBLE their interest rates in one single shot!...That's a huge move...But more than that , the market will now be faced with something new : Japan is now RISING interest rates, to where ?How much more is it going to rise?This are questions that should definitely scare the carry trades pattern , and should start a big unwinding.

We will see.

USA BAY 21:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

What are the implications of the BOJ RATE decision on the yen pairs please. THANKS

Syd 21:47 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Higher rates slam home values

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21078141-31037,00.html

LKWD JJ 21:43 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
OILMAN what does your system say about $y? its been a while since weve heard from it. i still remeber the good ole days!!!
-0
<
==

Cannes Oil man 21:26 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 20:52 GMT January 17, 2007

Yes thinning ranges always prepare for a breakout ...I'm still looking for US$ downside in the break out...Again today , the only names buying euro's are official names..Meanwhile specs buy US$..
As for $CHF , as swiss CB say, it's euphoria in the market, it will end up in tears , as usual...Just like the oil euphoria ended up after 6 month, while it was booming on NBC, people saying 50 won't be seen again in our lifetime , and all this kind of crap...CHF is in the same stage , though it's much more discreet , so could prolly keep going for awhile .

san miniato ab 20:52 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:47 GMT January 17, 2007
in fact i meant 8,35 area in case of a spike above todays highs anyway this wud be not a tactical position but a strategic one

nj jf 20:52 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
oilman i will be interested to see what you think for the ranges. usdchf for me is at its balanced price point, hopefully something breaks to make these things begin new movement

san miniato ab 20:51 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
San Francisco Fed president Yellen in Q&A session after her intervention said "didn't understand why markets had priced in aggressive Fed cuts for2007" and she is "comfortable with the current stance on policy"...... just to leave always less chance to see a cut (she is non voter anyway)

Cannes Oil man 20:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
I don't trade EUR NOK..

But i trade USDNOK posted on GVI (look prices now):

Cannes Oil man 13:38 GMT December 6, 2006
I don't know why my model is crazy on this US/NOK , but so far looks great..
Cannes Oil man 10:17 GMT December 6, 2006
Bought 6.1280 $/NOK
T.P 6.34. S/L 6.05..
GL GT

Cannes Oil man 20:47 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
EURNOK today was :

8.3391---8.3014..Didn't look what it did.

Cannes Oil man 20:44 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Well euro went 4 pips from my daily range high..Not too bad..

Will put new daily range in a few.

san miniato ab 20:29 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
something abt boj timing:
recent BOJ unchanged rate verdicts cluster around 12,30 pm local time: Aug 11 at 12,17 pm, Sept 8 at 12,37 pm, Oct 13 at 12,47 pm, Oct 31 at 14,47 pm, Nov 16 at 12,24 pm and Dec 19 at 12,26 pm. Instead the Jul 14 hike came out at about one hour latern at 1,40 pm. (Font UBS from BOJ website)

SINGAPORE GFX 20:21 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Where is gbp/usd heading to? thanks

san miniato ab 20:15 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man maybe do u have any ideas abt eurnok pls? i personally think oil is bottoming ( dont believe too much to the fact that Iran and Venezuela will accept arabian dictat abt all ok on oil and .. why not? some geopolitical problem cud emerge again specially from iranian side abt nuclear proliferacy) and that cud give some support to nokkie. On macroeconomic front think tha Bank of Norway has to raise again so i thought to short eur nok here around 8,35 area for another test of 8,10 in next days. Do u have any opinion here pls?
ps by the way still holding usd yen long at 120,79 with sl 120,20 and tp 121,05 now hoping to be hit in theprofit side just to put an order to buy at 120,10 on Boj decision
tia

Sydney ACC 20:13 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 20:03 GMT January 17, 2007
Renminbi is a controlled currency and as such it is impossible for central banks to hold this currency as part of their reserves.

PAR 20:03 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
GBP replaced yen as third world rsereve currency and remimbi is replacing the yen in asia. Japan is finished and BOJ is becoming irrelevant . Japanese capital outflows can only accelerate.

POLAND PIOTR 19:54 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR,

Could you please comment the impact of a rate rise and also on the impact of a no rate rise on gbp/jpy. thanks

ICMA BYE USD 19:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Euro displaces dollar in bond markets

PAR 19:33 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Now attention will go to BOJ which will decide that japanese economy will allways be too weak to raise interest rates. Only way Japan can compete with technologal superior American and European companies like Apple and BMW is by devaluing the yen and hoping that some price conscious consumers buy the cheaper japanese " me too products " .

Dallas GEP 19:28 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
MRC stop is 1.9810 on gbp short target is 1.9620

Dublin Flip 19:13 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
What about the French consumers???

As usual these guys have little intrest in stimulating domestic consumption. It's the benign approval of ever cheapening imports that's allowed the US punters to start spending more of their wages on services and allow US importers to make enourmous profits thereby further stimulating the economy.
Who do you want to encourage?? Aggregate demand or continue to rely on exports (ike Japan has done for 17 years). These French politicians need to trust free markets to do their job.

NY RP 18:41 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
I havent heard much talk about the hidden beast, Stagflation.
I am sure we will start to hear more about this as the story unfolds. Surely a slowing economy coupled with rising inflation could surely put the Fed's back against corner. Time will tell.

san miniato ab 18:39 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
French Trade Minister says 1,3000 eurusd makes life diffitult to exporters

CT Cris 18:35 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 14:03 GMT January 16, 2007
Polokwane CS 13:58 GMT January 16, 2007
CT Cris what is your view on GBPUSD ? Thanks.

======
heading toward 19700 in uptrend sideways
===still in uptrend sideways heading twd 19770.

Como Perrie 18:23 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
And given the general more hawkish interest outlook with record CPI in UK, believe we see 1.98 before anything - even if might dance as usal before the last kick upside.

Como Perrie 18:22 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B 16:41 GMT January 17, 2007

no good rr imo..might go anywhere 1.98 or 1.95 from here-

Como Perrie 18:20 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Milano GP 18:03 GMT January 17, 2007

Scroll back some posts. They do not have an official release time, It should be anytime during their meeting from early to late japan time.

Now looking Beige book for more on FED decision. Goldmans says they will cut 1/4

madrid mm 18:12 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Doha Mathew 18:09 GMT January 17, 2007

Of course they are ! 8-)

But i would suggest that you go to the Help Forum. You might find interesting information !!!!!

PAR 18:10 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Normally bond yields should rise , bonds should drop and the dollar should rise . But with all the FED s beige book depressif talk aboot the US housing market and car manufacturing problems exactly the opposite could happen .

Doha Mathew 18:09 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Kevin,I am just a beginner and am not good at interpreting charts.Thats why I sought an explanation.I feel beginers aren't welcome here

madrid mm 18:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Jan 18, 05:00 GMT
Japan
!!! Bank of Japan Rate Decision

Geneva DS 18:04 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR

So do you think then GOLD to drop and USD to rise soon?

madrid mm 18:03 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Since the Beige Book is released two weeks before each FOMC meeting, investors can see for themselves at least one of the many indicators which Fed officials will use to determine interest rate policy, and can position their portfolios accordingly.

bloomberg.com
today @ 2pm ET

Milano GP 18:03 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Hi, can I ask if anybody knows what time exactly is tonights Japan announcement? TIA

madrid mm 18:01 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
The surprising PPI might be balanced by the ongoing decline in oil, making the housing market index and its reading on the ailing sector the day's likely market-moving focus.

PAR 18:00 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
With all agricultural commodities making new highs what americans spent less on gasoline they will spent more in the supermarket. Inflation will be non existent since FOOD , as energy is excluded from inflation calculations .

Cannes Oil man 17:55 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Of course last week we were at 1.93 when i said strong buy..But at 1.97..It' still a strong buy...Relentless..

Cannes Oil man 17:55 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
GBP$ might finally touch the 2.0 figure into the next week.

E$ is definitely holding the stallion back , but break above 1.3050 , will let this baby fly.

As said last week , it is still a STRONG buy.

Sofia mik 17:37 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS 16:48 GMT January 17, 2007
nice call!
I have the same opinion.
gl,gt!

HK Kevin 17:19 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Doha Mathew 17:07 GMT, look at the weekly chart, you will know the death/alive level.

Doha Mathew 17:07 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Any view on euro/gbp

HK Kevin 17:07 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Karachi Pount/USD 17:05 GMT, you may try now or wait for close to 1.9780, both with 20 pips stop.

HK Kevin 17:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Just closed my short USD/JPY at 120.55, good night

Karachi Pount/USD 17:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
give me a quick suggestion for POund/USD should i shor it .?

Gen dk 16:55 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Toronto MRC 16:51 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:02 GMT January 17, 2007

Where is your stop on cable.

Geneva DS 16:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
USDCHF set to explode, 1.2750, the cousin stgchf has broken largely to the upside at 2.4000 and now so has AUDCHF at 0.9800... next stops are stgchf 2.7500 and 1.1000 AUDCHF... watch for reversal in CHFJPY,,,, any move below 96.00 and there you go for 88.00 very fast... good rides...

Hong Kong Ahe 16:44 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:11 GMT January 17, 2007 If u still hold yr Gold now, hold it till 3:00 am HKT and sell it. Wait for correction and buy it again after 11 am HKT till another rise and sell it again before 11 pm. Good luck.

U.K. J.B 16:41 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
i think these are excellant levels from a r/r point of view to short cable between 1.9700/50 for a look at 1.95+ by late Friday early next week. GL/GT

london gizmo 16:34 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
eur/gbp

place buy/stop order just above 156.35

Mathew Doha 16:28 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Hello room.Can anyone pls post their views on euro/gbp from here on.

london gizmo 16:28 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
hey does anyone here trade with regression channels. short term and long term they are nice and very easy to use

mex sjs 16:23 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
we will see chf under 1.24....so far this week, the range is very narrow , 100 pips, after 3 days being trapped, before the usd continues its way to get stronger for next couple of months, at least jan-feb & march, we need to see euro close to 1.3050, chf close to 1.23...IMHO..gl & gt

Como Perrie 16:18 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
big stops usdchf around 1.2420/30. wd it trough might be buy some francs

Cannes Oil man 16:17 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
We really need to have a close SUB 1.2400 to see $chf start massively going down though.

Cannes Oil man 16:15 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   

Just removed half $CHF to cover the 1.2432 i had from yesti , and keeping half at entries 1.2505.
Rest i m still holding..e$ , nzd$ ,$cad's..1.1765..$/Y is however gone , limit was hit 120.45 ..Used the range finder..Works pretty well.
gl gt

HK Kevin 16:04 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ, it's true USD/JPY has to drop from a conspiracy point of view, but who knows. I am short from 120.70 and plan to cover my position today.

Dallas GEP 16:02 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Went short GBP at 1.9710 and also long usd/cad at 1.1735

Cannes Oil man 16:01 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 15:55 GMT January 17, 2007

Nice , had no clue about this new "patriot" style act.

LKWD JJ 15:56 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
macd and rsi showing divergence as $y made new highs yesterday. door open for big drop. profit taking for longs who want to get to sidelines before boj news.

Sydney ACC 15:55 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 15:20 GMT January 17, 2007
What also can be said is that Homeland Investment Act in 2005 interrupted teh long-term decline in the USD. That piece of legislation prompted US corporates to repatriate about USD 500 billion most of which in the latter half of the year.
Almost as soon as the new year started USD weakness kicked in again.

RIC fxq 15:37 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
4cast earlier today:

* 17 Jan 07: 08:29(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD Flows - Active reserve management

EUR/USD is nearer the lower end of its range, but that does not appear to be putting off an East European sovereign from selling a few. However, this is one of the more 'active' reserve managers, and we doubt it is planning to be there long term.

Cannes Oil man 15:36 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:33 GMT January 17, 2007

No the story itself is true, but the buying was done by others.
But who cares who bought?Interesting is prices are up , and not declining.

hk ab 15:33 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
oilman, if you don't see that RUssian story true for last Fri, thne, do you think that $25 was brought up by other diversification?

san miniato ab 15:23 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:02 GMT January 17, 2007
u r rite Kaprikorn, effectively i omitted in last time to post my ideas also on GVI site and i ll try to recover the lost time. For the moment i remain long since this morning in USD YEN at, badly i have to say as i hoped in a break, 120,79 (sl 119,85 and tp 121,30). I saw good support again at 120,30 today and even if this is more an yen story than a dollar one (due for indecision surroinding BOJ decision very fine balanced at this point) i dont expect much support for the japanese currency. A rise of 0,25 not followed by strong remarks agst carry trade or strong remarks abt further step in strenghten monetary policy in the near future dont think will give much help to yen. I just wait and hope to see the break of 120,80/90 area this evening to raise my stop loss at entry. Otherwise ill raise the sl to 120,30 if we will stay rangebound and if we will be closer to boj decision. i took a good profit this morning fm gbpyen long pos (236,73 closed at 237,27) and this allow me to resist in this, for the moment, not good trade. Appreciate ur comments always tia and gl

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:23 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
yes Oil man - it makes sense!

Como Perrie 15:22 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
On previous read ind. prod. from november erased december readings, istead of ppi.

So now its up to the FED rate decision.

Cannes Oil man 15:22 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
No i'm not talking about the next 50 pips or 100 pips , but weekly/monthly direction.

Cannes Oil man 15:20 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Actually I guess it's the way of things, people looking to short E$ , when it is moving up , long term wise...In fact if it was moving down everyone here would have trying to buy it..

Back then E$ was at Parity and moving up , same was happening around here, with people trying to sell it (for .65), look archives, I was probably the only one with Zorro calling 1.26 at parity..Now the e$ moved to 1.30...People still expect radical fundamental changes that will make the $ come back..If the US$ was making a snap back , fundamentally , things would have to change first ..(Diversification done, Deficits solved , and so forth)..
Nothing changed, the diversification process has just begun..

Cali mmm 15:20 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
OK 71, TKS Oilman

Como Perrie 15:17 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
pay attention to the revision of previous ppi's and the upcoming fed beige, as well as on BOJ last meeintg before to be released information on interest rates - this might be whenever from 7-8 pm nyc time to 7-8 am London tomorrow

madrid mm 15:17 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Theater of the Absurd Surrounds BOJ's Decision: William Pesek

By William Pesek

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- A funny thing is happening on the road toward restoring the Bank of Japan's credibility: It may be about to lose even more of it.

A theater of the absurd is unfolding as the central bank holds a closely watched policy meeting. Tomorrow, we will know if the BOJ sticks to its guns and raises interest rates or bows to politicians, stands pat and loses what little integrity it has built under Governor Toshihiko Fukui.

Click here

to dr unken katt 15:17 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi
for this pair to move 15pips it takes 3 dayz

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:13 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
by the way regarding GBPJPY I remember Gooner here posted his idea that there was a Golden cross in the making that would push the cross to multi-year highs around 238-240...

hk ab 15:11 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Martin, do we have retracement on gold again? LOL..... price seems to be serious. matter of time.

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:11 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
euro expect a tug of war today... good for people that want to cover high level shorts, A break of 12896 means that bullish dreams will collapse at sub 128

Cannes Oil man 15:06 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
71 , mmm.

HK Kevin 15:04 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Aussie above 7870 will fly to 7920 again

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:02 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 14:54 GMT //
I noticed your posts some time ago on the GVI side.. I like that you presented the rationale for a trade - what l missed was some comments from the pros there -
look maybe it will be a good idea for the trading club - there to discuss actual trading strategies..

warsaw TOMi 14:59 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 14:50 GMT January 17, 2007

the biggervthevbetter, need tio test it anyhow..

Cali mmm 14:57 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, what is your target short term for NZD/USD ? TKS.

san miniato ab 14:54 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 14:51 GMT January 17, 2007
thks as well Caba

san miniato ab 14:53 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:47 GMT January 17, 2007
thks Kaprikorn

Cannes Oil man 14:51 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:23 GMT January 17, 2007

Patience , NZD will hop...it's a small ccy , moved around by only a few flows daily...GDP was 12 coconut , was expecting 11..Should definitely bounce..lol.

Philadelphia Caba 14:51 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for the NY cut (1500GMT)
* Dollar-yen; Y120.50/55, Y120.00, Y121.00, Y119.00. Y121.00 (KO-lge) mni.

to dr unken katt 14:50 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 14:

2860-70 its huge support , not sure if they wanna walk that way

warsaw TOMi 14:37 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
eurgbp only 19 pips away from massive tech support now..

warsaw TOMi 14:34 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 14:29 GMT January 17, 2007

letthem be there, will watch them when €euro is breaking down 2870.

to dr unken katt 14:29 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOM
laast nite some investment bank was buying cable i think they r still in the market , someone is picking up the bottoms all the time

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:23 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
I'm losing my nerrves with this non moving NZD..

Toronto MRC 14:20 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Ind P a little hotter at .4 vs .1 Cap Ut on target

warsaw TOMi 14:19 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
catt,maybe don't have to wait 48 hrs, shud be on the way down by evening..
ot tommorrow afternoon.

Cannes Oil man 14:15 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Though GBP$ is now at range high, so it is dangerous area right now for the euro.
It really needs to get above 1.2936 , or it risks downside with each minute passing.

madrid mm 14:13 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
NEXT to come - in a few minutes

Industrial Production
Released on 1/17/07 For Dec 2006
Production, M/M change
Consensus 0.1 %

Capacity Utilization Rate, Level
Consensus 81.7 %

to dr unken katt 14:11 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi , what u mean ?
zloty?
pln

Cannes Oil man 14:11 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
The euro has resisted the lows , a bad number from the US , and there's bound to be one sooner or later, and .....

Toronto MRC 14:09 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
I would look to cap utilization up in about 7 min to set usd tone for the day. imho

warsaw TOMi 14:06 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
catt,
looks like pln bubble is about to explode..

Philadelphia Caba 14:03 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
TIC 68.4B

Portugal camisa 13:58 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
short cable 9670

to dr unken katt 13:57 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
ofia Kaprikorn
i ve default settings

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:53 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
IGM reports about some "loose rumours" for stronger TICS around 100..

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:52 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 13:42 GMT //
excuse me - just for info as I also looked on my slow stochastics (14-8-4)
so what setup you use if not secret - as my daily stochs ar around the 50%..

warsaw TOMi 13:49 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
the only way for cableto come down is a rejection eurgbp arnd 6550 with €uro pointig southwards until 2850.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:47 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 13:41 GMT //
somewhere I read it was before the BOJ announcement - so it must be the NY cut at 15:00 GMT..
better look for additional confirmation..

warsaw TOMi 13:45 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 13:42 GMT January 17, 2007

thismeans another try out at 9700, have to wait 2 days.

Cannes Oil man 13:44 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 13:41 GMT January 17, 2007

Don't think anyone wants to take a risk either way, ab from italy..
Not before BOJ event.

to dr unken katt 13:42 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
cable dayly stochastics at max 100%
should go down

san miniato ab 13:41 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
just a question.... many are talking abt an dnt with 121 cap to expiry today in usd yen... is this expirying at 15.00 gmt in ny rite? or is it expirying tonite in Tokyo time pls? appreciate help, even if cud seem a stupid question sry for this

warsaw TOMi 13:40 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
catt,
€uro looking good,cable dancer?

san miniato ab 13:33 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
ppi + 0,9, core + 0,2

Philadelphia Caba 13:33 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN: Jiji reports suggesting that the BOJ likely to hold off from raising rates Thursday. mni.

Cannes Oil man 13:15 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sold 1.2505 $chf , tight stops.

nicosia y d 12:43 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Yesterday, the USD strengthened in the forex market against the majors after OPAC announced they will not be calling an emergency meeting result
of decreasing oil prices. what do you think about the trend?

Philadelphia Caba 12:14 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 04:52 GMT January 17, 2007
welcome back GEP. hope, you're doing well. gt/gl!

london wt 12:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
nzd/usd

first area of resistance is around.6927, this is a previous price zone of resistance and support. then the next resistance is at .6946 area which is a weekly pivot.

Cannes Oil man 12:02 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
I had the limits in for awhile , so when it ran down , they got hit..

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:55 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 11:48 GMT //
good entry last night on NZD!

I was lured by some reports about the end of tightening so went out with -20 pips
and now long NZDUSD avg 0.6919
on hourly chart I have a trendline support from Jan 8th - the low of Jan 10th and last night the price bounced pefectly off the Resistance line at 0.6884 - MACD and Slow Stochastics are turning upside favoring an upmove...
comments appreciated..

Cannes Oil man 11:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
So far GBP$ RIGHT on target 1.9521----1.9676 GBP$
LOL.

Mumbai NS 11:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Oilman what's ur view on cbl medium term if possible please.

gl gt

Cannes Oil man 11:47 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Half T/P on $/Y here at posted range low..

Roja Rosa 11:46 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
plays=place

Cannes Oil man 11:45 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
So far market obeying the posted ranges..
Things might change when the boj doubles it's interest rates overnight....That it's .25% it's still doubling the rates, plus seeing as going up instead of flat and going down , will make changes to market..That's if they do hike..We soon be fixed.
gl gt

Roja Rosa 11:45 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie it is only wednesday and u r wishing nice w/e which plays u stay where w/e starts so early wuld be worth migrating there

Como Perrie 11:39 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Roja Rosa 11:01 GMT January 17, 2007
I can't say more than that on earlier, my message was meant just to establish an extremely high level of prudence. This as is not my style to try to influence others thoughts - nor want to buy elses. Ergo am not lurking the globe of ideas. Have a nice w/e

madrid mm 11:02 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
fwiw

UBS Says Yen to Climb as Japan May Encourage Gains (Update4)

By Stanley White

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's government may call for the yen to gain or even buy its own currency to avoid criticism from trading partners, said Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, global head of foreign exchange strategy at UBS AG.

Click here

Roja Rosa 11:01 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Vols are at abysmal lows central banks to act where is the volatility to curb what r u saying hope u r ok

Como Perrie 10:47 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Some big central banks are ready to act upon volatily next days. Big shifts out of eroding rations on strategic national p-folios rumored to come next days/maybe weeks.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:43 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
ok tnx!

Melbourne Qindex 10:41 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:38 GMT - Hi, I don't have a free trial.

Como Perrie 10:41 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
behind the balls of consultants and myths of TA, there has been a very complex enviroment of big flows behind markets recently.

suggest very big coution next days.

ps if you don't know how to set behind this better go fishing and stay safe

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:38 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:30 GMT //
hello, since I am interested in your research I saw you post a little free daily content on your site - do you run this free daily cycles as a trial and do you update them on a regular basis - I saw your last update was from Jan 15..

Melbourne Qindex 10:30 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 1.9646 - 1.9685, the mid-point reference is 1.9666. The downside potential is 1.9529 - 1.9568 and the upside risk is 1.9762. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.

Syd 09:52 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sterling's sell-off and the rally in short-sterling futures after UK CPI came in at a 15-year high Tuesday is a clear indication that risk/reward doesn't favor medium-term long GBP positions from current levels, says HBoS. The bank says with June short sterling currently yielding 5.82%, implying 2 further rate hikes almost fully discounted, only expectations of another hike which would push rates above 6% would provide the pound with fresh support. With US and China's growth slowing, the ECB raising rates, and 75bp of hikes since August 2006 feeding through into the UK economy the bank doesn't foresee UK rates reaching 6%. Cable now at 1.9660, EUR/GBP at 0.6574.

Gen dk 09:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland trotter 09:41 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:22 GMT January 17, 2007
“The level of 1.2925 on the 5min chart after having come up from 1.2917 appears as resistance.”

Hope this is not a Freudian slip on my part.

Should have said that the levels of 1.2917 and 1.2925 appear as short term support.

mal semiji 09:38 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
anyone know about usdcad for tonite

Auckland trotter 09:35 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Could see a narrowing of the trading range for the EUR/USD due to the Fed’s Beige Book report due out GMT 19:00.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:26 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 09:16 GMT //
thank you for the info - I actually just found someting similar on the Commowealth Bank page..

Auckland trotter 09:22 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
I have up pressure mounting for the EUR/USD. The SMA (10) has crossed the SMA (100) on the 5min chart, and appears to be heading that way on the 1hr chart. On the 1day chart the SMA (89) has crossed the SMA (100).

An interesting level on the 4hr chart is 1.2944, which is also around the 50% fib on the daily chart. This is also on the 1hr 30day chart which gives a further possible level of around 1.2975.

The level of 1.2925 on the 5min chart after having come up from 1.2917 appears as resistance.

Fundamentals due out later, so will see.

Sydney ACC 09:16 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:05 GMT January 17, 2007
FWIW My bank is telling me there are two World Bank Uridashis maturing next week totalling about NZD 1.45 million, in February and March there are similar amounts due. We saw similar amounts mature over the course of the last quarter and of course demand for Kiwi expsoure was more than sufficient to meet the maturities.
They indicate there is residual concern about RBNZ increase on 25th Jan (can't see it myself) other measures than the headline CPIT sill show inflation above 3% apparently.
NZ non-tradeables inflation stayed stubbornly high, growing by 0.8% in the quarter and 3.5% on a year ago. Overall, today's NZ CPI data reinforces familiar themes, namely that externally generated inflation pressures are easing but domestically-generated pressures remain surprisingly robust. Thus, it is a line-ball call as to whether the RBNZ at their 25 January policy meeting will focus more on ongoing resource stretch (i.e. an rate rise) or the impact of lower headline inflation on wage and price setting expectations (leaving rates unchanged).
They expect any further selling pressure on the NZD to be limited (support near US$0.6845 should hold).

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
guys - anyoen suggest some reading on these Uridashi bonds - I read many reports that NZD and AUD crosses at times are supproted by the demand of these bonds - I know they are issued in AU and NZ and denominated in JPY but I want to know when the money flows are going??

for example the NZ inflation data yest suggested the NZD will weaken due to no further tightening... but the ccy is still above 0.69

Gen dk 09:02 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Singapore fs 08:58 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:54 GMT January 17, 2007
Well, practically, simple.... UK just increased interest rate to 5.25%, therefore, real estate will be getting more expensive due to the hike in the interest rate. When compared to European, the interest rate still remain the same. Most people from England don't mind staying in Euro country due to the weaker currency and cheaper housing. :D

PAR 08:54 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Do not understand why in UK inflation is moving higher while in Europ inflation is moving lower and european real estate is showing bigger rises than UK real estate. Do they use a different calculation system ?

Mumbai NS 08:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:43 GMT January 17, 2007
I hope it works for u that way but give a look on longer frames i/d yes u r rite gl gt

Sydney ACC 08:43 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 08:32 GMT January 17, 2007
Think usd is king as of now cbl looking very tired n heavy.gl gt

About a couple of hours ago it was looking weak on the hourly charts in thge last nhour it has resumed its strength and left all others in its wake.
AGAIN!

Mumbai NS 08:32 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Think usd is king as of now cbl looking very tired n heavy.gl gt

Singapore fs 08:25 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:18 GMT January 17, 2007
Can i have a link for your claim please, thanks. :D

PAR 08:18 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
BOJ is the most unreliable central bank in the world and is actively involved in currency manipulation . Think Kampo and BOJ decided not to raise rates till USDJPY is above 125.00. Better to follow BOJ and keep selling yen .

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:16 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 08:09 GMT //
hello - yes exactly - I feel this whole story is dust in the eyes because what you say is true - CHF rate is 2% and is also considered a carry
that's why I hold a long GBPJPY

warsaw TOMi 08:10 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 07:57 GMT January 17, 2007

will try to square there.. good day ab 8)

Alaska Moon 08:09 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:04 GMT January 17, 2007
=======
In view of the large differential of interest rates, I have never thought that .25 hike would make any difference in carry trades...
Just mho
Moon

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:04 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 07:54 GMT //
it's a mess this BOJ decision - I read reports that rate hike was 80% yest and after the controversal media reports yesterday from Tokyo we have only 30% chance of a hike today..
and at 7 GMT the last info said that views were split 50-50...

Austin gw 08:02 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sounds like another satisfied customer.

Kucak Bilak Sagdiyev 07:58 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
la fxt 07:37 GMT January 17, 2007

I will get you like I got my sister, you crook with real chocolate face.

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:58 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
I read from IGM - 117-121 DNT with $12mio payout running off today - so maybe there will be strong defence..

to dr unken katt 07:57 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
by the way the pivot is at 23672

to dr unken katt 07:56 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
by the way the pivot is at 23672

to dr unken katt 07:54 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 0

not a good idea , buy on dips , dont short

now theres this rumour of BOJ not willing to hike the % rates
the pair may get extra boost

san miniato ab 07:50 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
sl 120,30 obviously, hi TOMi good day to u

san miniato ab 07:49 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
closed long position gbpyen at 237,27 and tried now a very fast long us yen at 120,79 (just to try the break, sl 102,30 tp 121,30)

warsaw TOMi 07:49 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
catt, went short cable yen at 23728 again,

risk for €uro may have performed double b similar to last week's cable one.

Zurich 07:48 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
NY NY 07:46 GMT // He's such a good trader he lost all his funds which is why he's asking here! If he's that good he should be able to find a friend or relative to grub stake him. He's not.

Vancouver Mike 07:46 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
la fxt // You're full of sh!t.

NY NY 07:46 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
la fxt 07:37 GMT January 17, 2007


Give it up. Stick with your own funds if you really are 'that good' or provide levels for all to share in your wisdom.

to dr unken katt 07:43 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
you still run this nigerian scam?

la fxt 07:37 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
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madrid mm 07:21 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Nihon Keizai Shimbun : BoJ is now expected to refrain from an immediate rate hike to give itself more time to analyze consumer spending and price trends.

Sankei Shimbun says BoJ may not increase rates until it h as a better grasp of the economy.

NKS: The BOJ policy board is believed to be leaning toward forgoing an interest rate hike at this time. Others suggest that MoF Omi's comment (on no need to seek BoJ vote delay) reflects his confidence that the BOJ will not raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting.

Interesting talks making the rounds that Japan's MoF has called on large Japanese carmaker(s), exporters to buy JPY, with some fears that continued JPY weakness could ignite protectionist sentiment in the Democratic controlled US House and Senate.

Japan Consumer Confi for Dec improves to 47.3 from 45.6.

UK Times: The threat of another rapid interest rate rise loomed over homeowners and businesses last night after headline inflation leapt to a 15-year high. On widely-used RPI inflation soared to 4.4%, the highest level since Dec 1991, when interest rates stood at 10.4% amid the depths of the last recession. PM Tony Blair insisted at his monthly press conference that prices were being brought under control

ECB board member Juergen Stark says he is not satisfied with average inflation rate of just over 2% since EMU in 1999.

NZ Q4 CPI of -0.2%q/q, vs exp 0%, +2.6%y/y, vs +2.8% expected.

China's Ministry of Commerce has withdrawn a research report by its think-tank saying CNY is undervalued and could rise 3-4%t by the end of 2007. The ministry retracted the report on Wednesday after a number of local and offshore media interpreted it as an official endorsement of a stronger CNY - Reuters

Some large flows in late Asia just ahead of the closely watched Huge 117.00-121.00 DNT options, expiry today,Tokyo cut at 0600GMT. Talks the "Other" Swiss Bank was huge sellers of USD/JPY, >$400-500m, pushing it to day lows of 120.60-62 from 120.70-72 around that time, possibly options related, and also talks of Japanese exporters, carmakers selling as well.

Focus still on the 121.00 level.

USD/JPY rose in early Asia trading on Sankei/ NKS report that BoJ is unlikely to hike rates tom, in a market that was positioned for a rate hike. USD/JPY hit fresh 13 mth highs of 120.88 as Japan custodians, securities hses, brokerage, banks bot USD/JPY, Cross/JPY for fixing, enroute to key 121 options expiry.

Topside capped by good options related selling >USD2-3bln, from same Swiss house, UK clearers, US, Japan sec hses and mega-city banks exporters, capping ahead of key 121, dipping earlier as market seen focusing on market talks that Japan MoF has asked Japan exporters/carmakers to buy JPY, on fears of protectionist sentiment in the US. USD/JPY bids still 120.50-60.

Huge USD/JPY stoploss above 121.06 the Dec 12 2005 highs. key will be 121.39 - Dec 5 2005 highs after that will see USD/JPY at its highest in almost 4 years since 121.87, March 23 2003 highs.

EUR/JPY supported on dips, 156 lows, and talks of Japan pension funds interest to buy GBP/JPY, eye 8-yr 5m highs 237.30..

GBP firmer on reports of more BoE hikes; NZD knocked down to 0.6887 fm 0.6954 as -0.2% CPI knocked down RBNZ rate hike talks, but supported on back of Japanese AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY Uridashi demand.

Nikkei +58.89 at 17,261, Topix 8-m high, JGBs soar on report BoJ may not hike rates, 10-yr yield -0.45% 1.690%

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 120.62/120.88, EUR/USD 1.2912/1.2938, GBP/USD 1.9603/1.9636, USD/CHF 1.2471/1.2491, AUD/USD 0.7813/0.7845, NZD/USD 0.6887/0.6920.

Syd 06:28 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi May Fall To US$0.6647 In Coming Days
Weighed by an unexpected drop in New Zealand's consumer price index in the fourth quarter, the country's currency has lost ground Wednesday and technical charts are flagging further losses. The charts suggest the Kiwi, as the currency is known, could fall toward US$0.6647, and possibly US$0.6509, in coming days. New Zealand's CPI fell 0.2% in the three months ended December from the third quarter, and rose 2.6% from a year earlier. The quarterly fall was the first drop in six years and the result was below market expectations, which had centered on a flat on-quarter outcome and a 2.8% on-year rise.
The currency tumbled from US$0.6955 to a low of US$0.6882 immediately after the data was issued. The daily Kiwi/dollar chart shows that the currency pair may have, at the Jan. 16 high of US$0.6974, completed a three-wave corrective pattern that started from US$0.6838, which was the base set on Jan. 8 after it fell from a peak of US$0.7097 on Jan. 2.
The five-day moving average is positioned below a falling 15-day moving average, which indicates that a bearish Kiwi/dollar trend may be underway. The Parabolic Stop-And-Reverse indicator has stayed bearish. This indicator suggests that short Kiwi/dollar positions should be maintained unless the New Zealand dollar trades high enough against the U.S. dollar to hit the bullish reverse signal, which is now at US$0.7000.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, or MACD indicator is bearish, and the negative MACD histogram bars are starting to expand, which points to a possible acceleration of downward momentum. The immediate target for this negative outlook is at US$0.6647, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the June 28 low of US$0.5920 to the Jan. 2 peak at US$0.7097.
Any extension of the Kiwi's fall beyond U$0.6647 on a daily close basis would target U$0.6509, which is the 50% correction level.

to dr unken katt 05:27 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
it was good opp to close , i told u

malaysia semiji 05:11 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
anyone know here about a best forex broker ,,

warsaw TOMi 05:09 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 00:29

not yet

malaysia semiji 05:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
hello syam , where r from? n where r u get the info for iraq dinar..tq

Syd 05:04 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Shares of major China property developers fell sharply Wednesday after the tax authority said it would be enforcing a value-added tax on project sales from Feb. 1, a move that will increase developers' costs at a time of rising land prices.
The imposition of the land VAT will raise developers' costs at a time of rising land prices and smaller companies with tight liquidity may face more pressure," said Ding Chaoyu, an analyst at Great Wall Securities.

The tax authority said in its statement property developers that fail to sell a development within three years of receiving a pre-sale license will also have to pay the land VAT.

KL KL 05:03 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
ok limit sell usdjpy at 121.45....there is such thing that price already factored in....but big boys will be sharks...ring the bell and run away

Weaker Yen >>> Nikkie Rise....I prefer to play yen over Nikkie...i.e long yen or short usdjpy....near 122

Gold trending lower, Ozi gold also tanking with metals....clear as mud imho...LOL

Dallas GEP 04:52 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Guys don't trade YEN pairs without stops. If BOJ does raise rates YEN pairs could tank. Also remember that stops can be filled at whatever market rate is available if market pushes past your stop so technically there is no such thing as a hard stop if market moves very rapidly against your position.

Syd 04:40 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Officials in the government of Saudi Arabia doubt the Iraqi government will be able to carry out the latest U.S. plan and are prepared to move Saudi forces into Iraq should the plan fail, according to NBC News

NY RP 04:29 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Dallas The Paw 02:49 GMT January 17, 2007

When things appear too easy, they are.
Good luck.

ipoh sham 04:20 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
anybody have an idea of the future of new iraq dinar...world is talking about dinar iraq.....infact the us govt through presidential order 13303 allow their citizen to keep dinar...and furthermore israel govt....encourage the same...anybody can comment it

Cannes Oil man 04:15 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
As long as the range finder i'm posting finds the high/low within 10 p , it means only ONE thing..We're in a range market.
I don't like range market , however adapting is definitely primordial particularly with spot vols tanking.
120.97---120.32 $/YEN..........

Makassar Alimin 04:10 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
KL KL 03:41 GMT January 17, 2007

hello ninja, with yen pairs are expected to move big, do you think HSI will be disturbed as well?

Cannes Oil man 04:07 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
KL KL 03:41 GMT January 17, 2007

Also large at 117..

Makassar Alimin 04:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
ok get ready for the news coming from Japan, tighten stop to 120.18 for some 50 pips in pocket, 125 is still on

Makassar Alimin 11:59 GMT January 11, 2007
teh is god! :) stops brought to entry on usdjpy long, consider SAR if it is taken

Syd 03:43 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD Limps Lower As CPI Dents Hike Chance

NZD/USD headed for weaker finish, could extend losses overnight as benign NZ 4Q CPI raises hurdle for a hike by RBNZ next week, says ANZ Bank senior dealer Murray Hindley; pair last at 0.6916 vs 0.6952 open, yesterday's 0.6954 close. "Overnight I would say the currency is going to come under some pressure; it will be interesting to see if the lows near 0.6880 could be taken out." Thinks risk is for retest of 0.6888 low tapped post-CPI, while a breach of 0.6880 could trigger stops with next target around 0.6840. Any uptick will struggle to pierce 0.6925-30.

KL KL 03:41 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Heard large KO options for usdjpy near 121.30......fwiw.

Will bond test 5.25 again this few days...with crude tanking ...will gold succumb to the power of commodity.....Dangerous days ahead and sl is the name of the game!!

Dallas The Paw 02:49 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 02:05 GMT January 17, 2007

Evening all,

This article should help explain a bit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMJV3rAvHx2E&refer=home

Cannes Oil man 02:08 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
This GBP looks ugly..Break under 1.9560 from here yields 200 pips downside..Looks very tired , and things have barely started moving..Euro is just dragging it all downside..

Both need to regain 1.2935 and 1.9640, or downside will pull.

NY RP 02:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Exciting times. Range bound madness. Bulls and bears fighting it out. I have been hearing many traders talk about the Yen and the marjets prcing in a hike on Thursday. It sure looks like the markets are pricing on NO rate hike. Am i missing soemthing?

malaysia semiji 02:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
what u got s,,,,

Cannes Oil man 02:04 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 01:13 GMT January 17, 2007

You could play both sides , though probably better to go with longer time frames ..

e.g

You think GBP will drop..Well instead of just shorting anywhere , just look range high, and short it around there..So you now have a good entry for your downside idea..Better than shorting at range low , being stopped when it does run down...
Of course risks are that it keeps going , but that's what stops are for.

Philadelphia Caba 01:57 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
thnx guys, got it..

malaysia semiji 01:57 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
anyone know today range for eur/usd and usd/cad ,,tq

Gen dk 01:47 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

RIC fxq 01:44 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
caba, from GVI data I have 12147

Syd 01:42 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Personal Finance Down As Rates Bite
Australian personal finance falls adjusted 1.2% in Nov. vs Oct. with commercial finance down 11.8% in same period. Data squares with RBA data showing general cooling in lending after 3 rates hikes in 2006; ikely to calm recent speculation RBA lining up a further rate hike February. Cash rate now at 6.25%

virginia city jd 01:34 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
121.37 in dec 05 jpy

Philadelphia Caba 01:31 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
guys, what was 2005 high for usd/jpy, pls? tia!

OTTAWA mjw 01:20 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
sofia kaprikorn are you shortor long nzd/$? just trying to sort out the postings..... thank you for posting

Syd 01:18 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
BOJ may still hike rates tomorrow as it has been implying it wants to "normalize" interest rates as soon as possible, says Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking chief FX manager Takehiko Jimbo; "I think the BOJ won't want to waste this opportunity" to hike rates and run risk of decreasing chances going forward amid economic uncertainty stemming from weak consumption. After latest media reports now tipping BOJ to forego a hike, Credit Suisse's latest Market Implied interest rate pricing for BOJ shows 30% odds of rate hike tomorrow vs 80% yesterday.

Cali mmm 01:13 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, I see your range on GBP/USD below. Are you treating the low and high as your entry and exit targets for this pair now? Or you have a different view? Just trying to learn how to make a trade plan with these range numbers. TKS!

Cannes Oil man 01:11 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
The guys are 60+ year old but face 80 years in jail...Money gone though.

Cannes Oil man 01:09 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Refco Defendants Face New Charges in Fraud Case

http://www.cnbc.com/id/16658736

Cannes Oil man 01:05 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Look below , cali , they are posted.

Cali mmm 01:04 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, do you have any entry and exit targets for GBP/USD for tonite/tomorrow ? TKS !

Cannes Oil man 01:02 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Plus i just looked it's not above today's range at all..

it's under the 237.16 high..so still within the range of normal sunday/wednesday.

Cannes Oil man 00:59 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:53 GMT January 17, 2007


No , not at all..When something breaks the "normal" range , you don't short..as you are talking GBPJPY (the monster) , let's say 50 pips ABOVE range means something is happening, and all contra or range trading have to be closed..
Anyways for friday's and thursdays range would be :
237.68---235.78...Why the difference?Because thursday and friday usually move more , so i included that in range finding...
So if 237.68 breaks , what i call "boost" day might keep going and going...Times where top pickers get burned badly...And in anycase , GBP is still in STRONG up move , and there's little reasons to short it..

When you play range trades, you should try to go within the higher timeframe direction...for GBPJPY , it definitely UPSIDE..(Till tomorrow boj , but for now definitely strong killer upside).

gl gt

Syd 00:54 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Pressured By USD Gains, NZD Fall
AUD/USD to consolidate with negative bias, initial target of 0.7800. Pair failed to hold recent gains, pressured overnight by resurgent USD and earlier on weaker NZD; main impetus likely remains from USD and reaction to U.S. data next few days. Major support at 0.7761 (Dec. 10 low). Daily chart indicators mixed, MACD remains negative, slow stochastic neutral, Dow Jones technical analysis shows.

USA BAY 00:53 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

GBP/JPY sort have reached your top for the range, does that mean it is a short now until NY OPEN. Thanks

Cannes Oil man 00:46 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Target the high of my posted range.

Cannes Oil man 00:46 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 00:12 GMT January 17, 2007

I took a long there myself.

Syd 00:31 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD likely under pressure before RBNZ policy review next week, given softer 4Q CPI, says ABN AMRO director of FX strategy Greg Gibbs; data "may well be seen giving the RBNZ more breathing room to remain on hold." Thinks while recent data suggest hike may still occur, balance of risks for NZD is to downside until Jan. 25 review. Pair, which fell 1% to 0.6888 post-CPI, last at 0.6910.

to dr unken katt 00:29 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 23:53
did u close cableyen?

usa bay 00:26 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
where is gbp/jpy heading too???. thanks

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:12 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
anyone shorting NZDUSD?
I entered at 0.6895 - on a report that this low inflation data released today willput pressure on the expectations of further tightening...
any technical view are welcome!

poland piotr 00:10 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
what are the chances of usd/jpy reaching 121 by euro session. thx

Austin gw 00:04 GMT January 17, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:45 GMT January 16, 2007

10-4 thanks again.

 




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