Forex Forum Archive for 01/18/2007

USA BAY 23:58 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC,

Any comments on eur/aud.?? Thanks

Syd 23:23 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
U.S. House Democratic leaders on Thursday backed up campaign promises to repeal billions of dollars of tax breaks from the oil and natural gas industry and boost revenues for renewable energy and energy efficiency programs.

With a 264-to-163 vote, the House passed the CLEAN Act, a priority bill for new House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who vowed to advance the bill in the first 100 hours of the new 110th Congress' legislative session.

The bill, estimated to generate about $14 billion over 10 years for clean energy programs, would disqualify oil and gas companies from receiving a reduced corporate tax rate and also reduce the geological write-off for large energy companies.

Additionally, the legislation would push oil companies to rework Gulf of Mexico drilling contracts that allow them to escape paying drilling fees to the federal government. Energy firms that don't renegotiate the flawed leases would face new drilling fees or lose out on the ability to win future leases in the Gulf.

"The CLEAN Act starts to move our nation in a new direction," said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md. "It is about the focus of precious taxpayer dollars and the future of our country."

Syd 23:15 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
NZ Retail Data Don't Support Rate Hawks- UBS
At the margin, November's retail sales decline again adds to "the argument" for RBNZ not to hike next week," says UBS chief economist Robin Clements; adds core sales also down vs broad expectations for slight increase, plus December sales performance uncertain due to wet weather

USA BAY 23:12 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OILMAN,

What are the chances of GBP/JPY moving towards 237//? Thanks

Syd 23:12 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
US House Votes To End Oil, Natural Gas Subsidies

House Bill Would Create Renewable Energy Fund

Cannes Oil man 23:06 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
friday:
1.2889___1.3031 E$
1.9646----1.9864 GBP$
120.46-----121.98 $/Y
1.1796---1.1676 $/cad
241.23---237.91 gbpjpy
6991---6927 nzdusd
7931---7841 ozi.

Sydney ACC 22:51 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Recent Central Banks' Rate Moves Favor U.S. Dollar, Lehman Says

By Bo Nielsen

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell pounds against the dollar and buy Canadian dollars against the yen to take advantage of policy uncertainty created by British and Japanese central banks, Lehman Brothers Inc. said in a research note.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=aV_rPRlxMIpY&refer=benchmark_currency_rates

BEIRUT MK 22:34 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
long eurusd at 1.2965 target 1.3050

BEIRUT MK 22:21 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
close long usdjpy from 119.09 at 121.15
now short usdjpy at 121.15 target 119.15

Pecs Andras 22:04 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Thanks guys

Caribbean! Rafe... 22:03 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 19:11 GMT January 18, 2007

lol...they are going to lose their underwear one day also..

sydney 22:02 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
nz retail sales -0.2%m/m vs -0.1%m/m expected
ex autos -0.1%m/m vs 0.1% expected

Washington MM 22:01 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
NZD Retail Sales: -0.2% vs. -0.1%exp
Ex auto: -0.1%

sydney 22:01 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
s

Pecs Andras 21:55 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd have you got the NDZ retail data? TIA

Como Perrie 21:51 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 19:01 GMT January 18, 2007

Hi

agree.


by the way do you know Sir AJMC

Como Perrie 21:49 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
ref. UK JB as of yesterday s view. Now think today's cable low pivotal to the current picture. Must be taken out to confirm yours 1.95 to be seen, else this is still extremely strong. Difficult trade I guess this one.

gl

Pecs Andras 21:49 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Anybody has the NDz data? TIA

Syd 21:42 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
The intermarket relationship between USD/CAD and crude oil indicates that additional CAD weakness should be expected if crude pierces psychological support at $50, says a report from RBC Capital Markets. That outcome would highlight key long-term resistance at C$1.1974, followed by a Fibonacci retracement level at C$1.2045, RBC says in a report. Crude oil support is located at $47.57 and $45.36, it says

Los Angeles Mojave 21:01 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
BahrainBAH1 and Haifa/ac ---- I have been a GBP/JPY buyer for 300 pips up --- are you calling a sell any time soon? or do you think the current 239.35 will support a move to the 240.89 August 1998 high?

USA BAY 20:35 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

THE GBP/USD pair is it still a buy at the present price action. thanks

RIC fxq 20:27 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:13

Thanks for the clirification but generally your posts are so minute to minute that this one confused me.

Syd 20:25 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Survey: Richest Americans Cut Hedge Fund Exposure In 2006
Americans of ultra-high net worth - those households with $5 million or more, not including their primary residence - reduced their exposure to hedge funds in 2006, and the wealthiest subset trimmed its holdings the most, a survey found.

Hedge fund exposure among ultra-high net worth Americans fell to 14% last year from 17% in 2005, according to a mail and online survey of 526 qualified U.S. households conducted by strategic consulting firm Spectrem Group of Chicago. Of the richest Americans - those with more than $25 million, not including their primary residence - 27% owned hedge funds last year, down from 38% in 2005, a 29% decline, the survey found. Of that 27%, the mean hedge fund balance was more than $1.6 million.

Syd 20:18 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Market Indicators
Symbol Last Change
CRB 285.88 -3.21
USD$ 84.88 -0.06
Bonds 110.93750 +0.37500
Crude Oil 50.48 -1.76
Gold 627.9 -4.6
Dow Indu 12558.32 -18.83
Nasdaq 2439.13 -40.29
S&P500 1424.46 -6.16

Cannes Oil man 20:13 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Look gold vs ozi chart 1 week.

RIC fxq 20:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:01 GMT

pardon me, but where are you getting Gold up 30 "points"? I have it -$2.20 from the same time yesterday. This is confusing!

Syd 20:05 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Personal debt is growing by £1m every four minutes
About 130 experts met to discuss concerns about the growing levels of personal debt, with more IVAs expected this year. Accountants KPMG forecast up to 150,000 individuals will become insolvent in 2007, including both bankruptcies and IVAs.
The personal debt mountain is increasing by £1 million every four minutes, experts have warned.

Huge mortgages are mainly to blame for the soaring levels of debt, with the average size of a new home loan now £142,000.

A study of Bank of England data by the money education charity Credit Action shows total personal debt stands at £1,278billion.

LINK

Cannes Oil man 20:01 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Gold is up 30 points and ozi didn't move , ozi could easily move to 8060 while gold stays stable.

LKWD JJ 19:51 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
muted reaction in ozi from crude and gold both being down sharply, or is it just delayed?

Geneva DS 19:29 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
BLOW OFF in JPY crosses could be very close to an abrupt end... Short positions in japi at very extreme levels.... signals to go long short term... 120.70 USD, 96.50 CHF, 156.50 EUR... etc etc. EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED... seems to easy now the short side...

Philadelphia Caba 19:28 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Ct 3W 18:49 GMT
G-7 - Feb. 9-10 meeting.
rumour that the group will discuss fx there.

Syd 19:26 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 19:11 GMT Oil hitting the fan fell below $50 first time since 2005

AZUSA 4X-ed 19:20 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
For some critics: I fail to see how BB's speech today was anything other than objetive and focused on l'ordre du jour. Doesn't get anymore bipartisan than this!

CT Cris 19:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd in uptrend and 19800 is coming

NYC 19:18 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Toronto. A market rarely moves this way when it gets it right.

Toronto MRC 19:11 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 18:28 GMT January 18, 2007
Hedge funds feel the heat as oil prices fall......
Rumours are circulating that one or more funds have lost their shirt on the latest slide in the oil price, which has fallen 15 per cent so far this year.

Wouldn't shock me in the least and with contracts expiring on Monday I would think more volatility to follow. imho

AZUSA 4X-ed 19:01 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:33 GMT January 18, 2007
I agree with the fact that Antispyware/Malware applications tend to give some false positives, however the bothersome issue here may not be the content of the file but the way this particular file behaves. Removal of this file, either manually or with an application (CCleaner), is only temporary as the file immediately clones or duplicates itself, and in the process, it prohibits a user from having control over the contents stored on the drive. Consequently, based on behavior alone this should meet the definition; as for the purpose of this behavior, I/we can only speculate. Currently using CounterSpy. Global View sponsor ads using Flash media are: censored, ACM, censored Markets, censored.

Ct 3W 18:49 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Does nayone know when the next g7 or g8 meeting is?

Syd 18:28 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Hedge funds feel the heat as oil prices fall
The warm northern winter is taking its toll on the trading floor, Tom Stevenson reports.
THE plants in northern hemisphere gardens may be confused about the unseasonably warm weather, but spare a thought for anyone trying to make a living in the oil market. On the trading floors, the losses are rising as quickly as the mercury.

Early-blooming roses face a nasty shock when winter arrives - but for the hedge funds betting on a bounce-back from last summer's oil price slump, rising temperatures have already been a disaster.

Rumours are circulating that one or more funds have lost their shirt on the latest slide in the oil price, which has fallen 15 per cent so far this year.

On Friday, world oil prices climbed to nearly $US53 a barrel, recovering from 19-month lows. New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February, gained $US1.11 to close at $US52.99 a barrel.

In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for February delivery rose $US1.25 to settle at $US52.95 a barrel.

The belief that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries would be able to support the price at $US60 or so has proved as misplaced as last year's consensus that the next stop after August's peak of $US78.40 was $US100 a barrel. Now the smart money is looking at $US50 or even lower.

The behaviour of the oil price has taken almost everyone by surprise. A year ago, the ugly stand-off between Russia and Belarus and nationalist sabre-rattling by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela would have sent the price soaring. But the downward pressure is so great that even Vladimir Putin has been out-growled by the bears in the financial markets.

The first whiff of an apparent suspension of hostilities between Russia and its satellite put the skids under the price again.

Most oil experts are pointing the finger at the weather and investors have developed a new fascination with websites like that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There they have learned that not only was 2006 the warmest year on record in the US but that, unusually, winter has failed to show up everywhere in the northern hemisphere.

Merrill Lynch commodity strategist Francisco Blanch says: "This winter has so far been substantially warmer than normal, even when factoring in global warming." He calculates that "synchronous global warm winter weather" has reduced oil demand by 38 million barrels a day during the first half of winter.

According to the Missouri-based forecaster Weather Derivatives, demand for fuel in the north-eastern states of the US, which account for 80 per cent of American heating oil consumption, will be 24 per cent lower than normal this week.

The US Energy Information Administration has cut its forecast for global oil demand by 210,000 barrels to 86.3 million barrels a day.

The effects of the warm weather have been compounded by a manufacturing slowdown in the fourth quarter and the continuing decline in construction.

Lower demand is only one side of the equation. On the supply side, too, pressure is easing. With countries such as Angola, Brazil, Canada and Russia producing an estimated 1.8 million new barrels every day, even a global economy growing at 4.4 per cent a year can't find a use for all the oil sloshing around the system.

Non-OPEC oil output was 3 per cent higher than a year ago at 51.7 billion barrels in the last three months of 2006, piling the pressure on the OPEC cartel to reduce its own production to keep the market in balance.

OPEC did agree to reduce its output by 1.2 million barrels a day in November, with a further 500,000 cut pencilled in for next month. But the producers have discovered that calling for a cut and having the discipline to see it through are two different things.

In December, OPEC countries pumped about 700,000 barrels of oil a day more than they had agreed. Even the most compliant nations - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates - held back on 20 to 30 per cent of their promised cuts. The most vocal price hawks, Indonesia and Venezuela, simply left the spigots gushing.

Merrill Lynch's Blanch sees potential for the oil price to start rising again if the situation deteriorates in the Middle East. "While the current supply and demand trends suggest that there is relatively little upside pressure to crude oil prices, the geopolitics of energy is not getting any better," he says.

He believes pressures arising from Iran's nuclear program will continue to make it hard for the country to attract the foreign capital it needs to expand its oil and gas output.

The unwillingness of America's new Democrat Congress to sanction further financial or military commitments to Iraq should hamper improvement in production there. If Israel or the US launched an attack on Iran, all bets would be off.

But Tony Dolphin, an economist at Henderson Global Investors, thinks downward pressure is unlikely to ease off.

"It depends on the production of non-OPEC countries, which looks like being quite strong," he says. "If OPEC has to cut, the risks are on the downside."

The implications for other financial markets of oil remaining below $US55 could be significant, Dolphin says.

"It would be good for global growth, with more spending power for importing countries. A soft landing would be more likely," he says.

"But if the oil price stays down, the idea of interest rate cuts will disappear - and that could create nervousness and, ironically, be bad for stockmarkets."

So although a cold snap may kill off those overoptimistic cherry trees, it could soothe the frayed nerves on the trading floor.

Telegraph, London

RIC fxq 18:28 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
4cast:

Thu Jan 18 12:55:00 2007(EST)

BINI SMAGHI, LORENZO

POSITION: ECB Board Member

AGE:50STANCE: Dove

REMARK (18/01/07): Potentially some inflationary pressures in eurozoe from high liquidity. Fall in oil prices supporting domestic demand growth in Eurozone. May have to take that into account in monetary policy. M3 growth has been fast.

VIEW: More hawkish remarks consistent with the heavily hinted at March hike by Trichet.

Madrid mm 17:56 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
let's start a rumor !!! 8-P

Madrid mm 17:54 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:46 GMT January 18, 2007

8-)

Makassar Alimin 17:46 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 07:31 GMT January 18, 2007

cheers gecko, here is our 121 level :) tightening stop now to 120.46, i do hope your 122 will come tomorrow being a friday and weekly close above previous high will be very important for next run towards 125/126

PAR 17:46 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke makes me depressif . At least Greenspan moved the markets in both directions which offered more opportunities .

LKWD JJ 17:41 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
does anybody really think hes gonna say "buy the usd or sell it?"

NYC 17:40 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke is an economist and he was ghiving his view from this perspective. He was not aiming it at any market and was careful to avoid saying things that would rock markets.

LKWD JJ 17:40 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 17:32 GMT January 18, 2007
LKWD JJ 17:20 GMT

amazing what the mkt will seize on any given day isn't it?

=============================================
i didnt realize that the fed chairman was so entertaining!

PAR 17:38 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke is pointing to soo many problems that even the stock market starts to suffer. His main objectif seems to be to talk up the US bond market which had been under pressure because of good US economic numbers .

RIC fxq 17:32 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:20 GMT

amazing what the mkt will seize on any given day isn't it?

LKWD JJ 17:20 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
ric fxq sorry my bad. dont recall this report getting such big press in the past but, my memory can deceive me.

RIC fxq 17:11 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:08 GMT No, Phia fed always at 1200 ET.

LKWD JJ 17:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
looks like mkt out to lunch. doesnt this survey usually come out at 2pm?

Global-View GVI 17:05 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GVI 17:03 GMT January 18, 2007
*US PHILA FED BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX 8.3 JAN VS -2.3 DEC
- Prices paid 11.9 vs 19.0 in Dec
- employment 7.9 vs. 7,5 in Dec

PAR 17:05 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Philly 8.3 . But Euro not reacting to positive US numbers . Probably 1.2850 option protection .

Global-View GVI 17:00 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 16:57 GMT January 18, 2007
At 17:00 GMT (12:00 EST) the January Philadelphia Fed Survey is seen at +3.1 vs -2.3.

Philadelphia Caba 16:26 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: EUR/CHF Good Size Back-Date Spread
We have been told that a 6-mth 1.5800 option strike has today been spread traded against a 1-year 1.6500 option strike at 0.025 pct in an estimated E1.2bn a leg. EUR/CHF last traded at 1.5800 on September 28. EUR/CHF scaled an eight-year peak of 1.6200 earlier today (ifr)
.

london wt 16:17 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba

did they mention any levels they looking at?

Philadelphia Caba 16:16 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
london wt 16:08 GMT
no article, just from news feed .... yes they shorted yen again ..

london wt 16:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba

what they mean is they are now max exposed to shorting the yen. correct me if im wrong

london wt 16:04 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba

can you pls post the article with that. thanks

Philadelphia Caba 15:57 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy & cad/jpy - Lehman Brothers TurnRate model went long both pairs today due to fall in 10 year jpy int. rates. The model now has its maximum short jpy exposure. (sexy b.)

guestion: they went short with maximum exp. on yen multiyear low?

Pecs Andras 15:54 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
sweeet crude oil eying 50 and below

LKWD JJ 15:47 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
looks like not many buy stops above 197.60 .

HK Kevin 15:43 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Sell small Cable again at 1.9721 with 30 pips stop.

hk ab 15:39 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
oilman, close for the party.
think the force will keep gold at 632

Como Perrie 15:37 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
to be neo and conservative at the same time might be a great problem to reforms if not leading to a psychiatric new school of thougt... so far ben is correct in saying

Bernanke- Reform Should Begin Today, if Not 10yrs Ago

hk ab 15:29 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
silver looks too unconstructive....

hk ab 15:29 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
stop placed at day high.

Gen dk 15:28 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cannes Oil man 15:28 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Then why not buy silver , ab?

hk ab 15:26 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
oilman 2 hrs play.
Look at the divergence on silver and gold....

Cannes Oil man 15:24 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Really short , thought you were gold bullish.

Anyways 638 should hold, but the euro breaking upside if it does happen could pull it higher..Though frankly unlikely above 638.x today..Tomorrow perhaps.

hk ab 15:21 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
thanks a lot. have short to see whether I can sleep or not.

Cannes Oil man 15:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:50 GMT January 18, 2007

Well should stay within for the day, the range are already large , larger than start of week anyways.

Gen dk 15:17 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Madrid mm 15:12 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, it might get choppy ....
Bernanke Warns of Possible `Fiscal Crisis' From Budget Deficit

By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. government may face a ``fiscal crisis'' in the coming decades should it fail to deal with the rising costs of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs.

``If early and meaningful action is not taken, the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened, with future generations bearing much of the cost,'' Bernanke said today in written testimony prepared for a Senate Budget Committee hearing.

Athens MK 15:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
London JBS 14:56 GMT January 18, 2007

Thanks for the info...

London JBS 14:56 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
U.S. DEFENSE OFFICIAL SAYS RUMORS OF IRANIAN STRIKE ON U.S. NAVAL VESSEL NOT TRUE

Vancouver Mike 14:51 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Another Gulf of Tonkin incident?

hk ab 14:50 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
oilman, do you see gold can climb higher than your upper limit?

UK Alex 14:50 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Some contact between U.S. and Iranian vessels in the Persian Gulf. It's quite vague.

Spotforex NY 14:48 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
from GVI

Spotforex NY 14:26 GMT January 18, 2007
UK rumor of a US/Iranian 'engagement' in Gulf

Cannes Oil man 14:46 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
It was reported on IFR 20 mnts ago.

Athens MK 14:43 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:42 GMT January 18, 2007

Thanks... we have at least 5 different wire services and they didn't report anything yet....

London Misha 14:42 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Heard it was on Bloomie

UK Alex 14:42 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
It's still a rumour, I'll let you know if I get anything more concrete.

Gen dk 14:42 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Athens MK 14:41 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:39 GMT January 18, 2007
Your source?

UK Alex 14:39 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Rumors in the market of a U.S. Naval vessel struck by an Iranian missle.

HK Kevin 14:37 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
What's wrong, my stop profit at 1.9699 got hit

Cannes Oil man 14:34 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Stops to entry on $CHF 1.254 , and cashing 1.2527 at 94..To get some pips in.

Cannes Oil man 14:27 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
David vs goliath..It's a good story ...However when playing money i prefer to go with goliath ..LOL.

Cannes Oil man 14:23 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Specs vs cb's...Outcome ?..

london wt 14:22 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Qindex

if either of these yen crosses moves higher, it will explode

CT Cris 14:22 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:54 GMT January 18, 2007
gbp.usd in uptrend buy b4 data .then buy another if decline.
target 19800.

====
first buy was at 19680.
second buy was at 19640.
exit both at entry point.

CT Cris 14:20 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP.USD exit now at the entry point for first and second buy.
take profit from the second buy.

Athens MK 14:18 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Would be nice from this level 1.9685 to start the drop towards 1.9600 :)

mex sjs 14:13 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
short usdchf from 1.2530 sl= 1.2560 tgt below 1.2300..... gl & gt euro has held current week's low so far, so as long it holds the way is up at least 1.3050

london wt 14:06 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Qindex

agreed, but i think with the other yen crosses and usd news it may push through there, worth a trade anyways

Melbourne Qindex 14:00 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market is working on the projected barrier of 238.96 - 239.06.

Melbourne Qindex 13:59 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:54 GMT - GBP/USD : I have a feeling if the market can reach 1.9629, it will hit [1.9567] either in New York session or early Asian session.

HK Kevin 13:54 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:13 GMT, many thanks, Master. Oilman low range 1.9629 is my today's t/p. Will take partial profits near there.

london wt 13:54 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
usd/jpy breakout , 1st target 122:00 second target 122.34

Gen dk 13:53 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 13:47 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Me going very light ahead into the w/e, almost nothing. Will just follow a bit Ben's speech yet at 15 gmt, and see the market how will set today and tomorrow with a reduced trading progaramme. Will be more active again next week.

P.S. CT hope you understand this is not a game and one has to take care of risks before of myths of techical analysis.

Cali mmm 13:47 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Ok, tks.

Cannes Oil man 13:46 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 13:43 GMT January 18, 2007

Bear , or range trading , yes..still see $ going weaker in the weeks ahead...But atm , i m more playing ranges than looking for a definite direction.

Athens MK 13:45 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Look for accelerated selling if 1.9640 breaks convincingly and especially 1.9590 towards first target 1.9523.....

Como Perrie 13:44 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Vn ms 13:35 GMT January 18, 2007

many tks

Melbourne Qindex 13:43 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : A projected barrier has been established at 1.9654 - 1.9666.

Cali mmm 13:43 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
So you are basically bear USD right now Oilman?

Cannes Oil man 13:41 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Shorted $Y 121.40 along the way.
Currently : $chf 27+41 , $y 12140...Tight stops on all.

Dallas GEP 13:37 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Closing gbp shorts here

warsaw TOMi 13:37 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
catt,shorts shud be safe now, on the way down :-)

gl/gt

Vn ms 13:35 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
DJ US Dec Consumer Prices +0.5%; Consensus +0.5%

*DJ US Dec CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.2%; Consensus +0.2%

*DJ US Dec CPI Unrounded +0.545%; Core +0.193%

*DJ US Dec CPI Energy Prices +4.6%; Food Prices Unch

*DJ US Real Average Weekly Earnings -0.1% In Dec

DJ DATA SNAP: Energy Pushes Dec CPI Higher; Core Gain Muted
========================================================
Dec Consumer Price Index ! Consensus !
Key Numbers: Dec Nov ! Overall: +0.5% !
CPI Index: +0.5% 0.0% ! Core: +0.2% !
Core Index: +0.2% 0.0% ! Actual: !
Energy: +4.6% -0.2% ! Overall: +0.5% !
! Core: +0.2% !
========================================================

Cannes Oil man 13:33 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Got my $chf 27.

Dallas GEP 13:33 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
thx CABA,,,,well eur/chf has been bullish as you know for last couple of weeks..easier path has been to long it but it is over bought now. I could see it retrace to 6120 area in next couple of days. As far as eur/gbp goes, because of gbp strength it has been much more softer than I expected but that 6550 are is fairly strong support and i expect GBP will start to short now at a faster rate than euro so eur/gbp should climb back up to 6580-6600 area

Vn ms 13:32 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
0.5%

Melbourne Qindex 13:31 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 12:35 GMT - When GBP/USD is retreating both USD/CHF and GBP/JPY are giving it their support.

Como Perrie 13:28 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Anyone wants to print outcome from fast news sources. TIA

Philadelphia Caba 13:25 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GEP, good to see you back! hope, you're doing well..
May I have your comment on eur/gbp and eur/chf, pls? thanks. gt/gl!

Como Perrie 13:24 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
In simple words if CPI comes out 0.4 or higher we might see more USD strenght. At 0.2 probably nothing. At 0.0 or lower It shd be dollar negative.

london wt 13:23 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
gbp/usd shorting tartet 1.9660

Dallas GEP 13:21 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
closed some usd/cad long at 1.1765, GBP shorts are on support but trailing stop is at entry, SHOULD see 1.9640

St. Annaland Bob 13:20 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
closed 80% @ 12128 and moved sl to 12168 for 24HRS target below 12100 ... happy trades



St. Annaland Bob 12:15 GMT January 18, 2007

playing that USDJPY will not break above 12150 during the coming 2 hours, short 12141 for something during the next 2 hours ... let's see ... happy trades

Cannes Oil man 13:15 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Going to short some $chf here at range top, see if i can get 27.

Athens MK 13:13 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
=============================
Athens MK 16:56 GMT January 15, 2007
GBP/$:

target 1: 1.9523 main target
target 2: 1.9460 secondary
target 3: 1.9403 happy target :)

If 1.9843 is broken close and reverse for at least 1.9943 and potentially higher...
==============================

Still looking for those above targets until if and only if 1.9843 breaks. Off of dealer chart we have been opening up new sell positions at the top of the daily GBP/$ range to keep R/R in check...

london wt 13:13 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
eur/jpy

euro yen in pullback to test last resistance, i think this is a good buying opp at around 156.30 , thats if we get the of course

Cannes Oil man 13:13 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
What i meant was the range i do every night actually SAVED me money, as i nearly clicked myself long on the "break" last night before sleeping.

But as i had made the same 2 days ago 1.2960 long , and had to wait 2 days to remove it at entries, i skipped , particularly when it was 1.2970 , and range was saying 1.2979 top..
--
Cumino, what do you make of Euro vols tanking , market expects a range trading ?

Karachi Pount/USD 13:11 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Can any budy gives me Idea about POUND/USD for buying target and for USD /Yen selling target.........?

Como Perrie 13:10 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:54 GMT January 18, 2007
Even if you might be right in your call, you might be as well terribly wrong - as no ones knows the datas outcome.

So under a risk managing perspective your call has not to be followed, even if then It shows out correct.

london wt 13:10 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
i would stay clear of any usd pair until the news is released, too many eyes on usa and waiting to see how soft the landing might be, so expect high volatility at news release.

pd cumino 13:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:04 GMT January 18, 2007
LOL. I guess it is a misunderstanding. Never mind.

Cannes Oil man 13:04 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 11:43 GMT January 18, 2007

I m actually flat on e$ atm , no need to break even.
Will probably long around here.

Karachi Pount/USD 12:56 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Any budy can give me Idea for seling in USD/Yen or buying rang of Pound/USD......????

CT Cris 12:54 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd in uptrend buy b4 data .then buy another if decline.
target 19800.

Como Perrie 12:53 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Most Usd negative positions have been cached ahead of CPI and Bernanke speech later on, as there is big caution ahead of a bit higher inflationary epxectations for US:

CPI is called up 0.4% overall with a 0.2% rise expected on the
core. The bias is likely a bit higher on the headline index given the big jump in food and energy prices noted in the PPI Wednesday - Even if the November's revision on downward and less then expected TIC inflows have played a role yesterday. The housing starts report is expected to note further slowing in new construction though mild weather
could wreak havoc with the seasonals, pushing starts higher. The Philly Fed is called at 3.0 vs. -2.3 in December.

Vancouver Mike 12:48 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 12:45 GMT // I'm looking at the four hour bar and Euro is down quite strongly since London open. This is common during downtrends in the euro. US session rarely reverses the trend.

FW CS 12:45 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
van gecko
Now it may be time to flush some of these perma bulls in the Euro as well if it follows $/Yen at all.

Aus Stu 12:40 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Possible leak of CPI data? We will see soon

Atlanta South 12:35 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex/
Ref 12:13// When trading Gbp/Usd which pair has the strongest pull on the Gbp/Usd....the Gbp/Jpy or Usd/Chf?
I took note of what you referred to ref Gbp/Jpy & the
Gbp/Usd pairs & was just wondering. Tks for you views
as they are always valued & respected by this trader.

teh 12:26 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Elliot Wave theory USD/JPY looks to be in wave 3 of a 5 wave sequence that started at 101.68 (wave 1 = 101.68 to 120.86 followed by wave 2 correction from 120.86 to 109.01 (exactly 61.8% of wave 1).

Now wave 3 has been confirmed by breaking above the
high of wave 1 (120.86). This argues for wave 3 to top
out at a minimum of 128.19 and possibly as high
as 140.04.

Atlanta South 12:24 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Bob//ref 12:15....I too am short this pair from same level.
On this trade for me 15 pts would do it. Lets see
what developes from here. Gt/Gl

St. Annaland Bob 12:15 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   

playing that USDJPY will not break above 12150 during the coming 2 hours, short 12141 for something during the next 2 hours ... let's see ... happy trades

Gen dk 12:15 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 12:13 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 11:35 GMT - Keep an eye on GBP/JPY when you trade GBP/USD.

Melbourne Qindex 12:12 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 11:35 GMT - Keep an eye on USD/CHF at the same time. If USD/CHF can above 1.2552, GBP/USD will retreat very fast.

Bandung Panca 12:09 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
hourly gbp/$ closed under 1.9720. next target at 1.9667...

Global-View Research 11:57 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read (covers the Day Ahead):

Mellon FX Daily

KL KL 11:46 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
locking in 25 pips on gbpusd short....lets see when yankees come

pd cumino 11:43 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 10:57 GMT January 18, 2007
Why don't you use a 1d straddle term break-even?

Como Perrie 11:40 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
A good overall guide for firewalls, anti-virus, and anti-trojans as well as
regular spyware cleaners.

http://www.firewallguide.com/anti-trojan.htm

HK Kevin 11:35 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:18 GMT, do you think Cable have reach her m/t top? My limit sell order at 1.9770 was hit and add on 1.9725 earlier.

Como Perrie 11:33 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Btw Sir, which anty spyware do you use - as some tracking even not harmful things.

AZUSA 4X-ed 22:28 GMT January 17, 2007

Como Perrie 11:32 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Interesting, anyone has same?

AZUSA 4X-ed 22:28 GMT January 17, 2007
Jay,

Not sure why one of your sponsors that makes use of Flash ads, installs a Flash tag that cannot be removed from a user's PC. This is the file in question: "core.sol" - 53 bytes. Also, my antispyware software tags this file as "spyware". Is there anything that can be done besides disabling the Flash Player to resolve this problem?

Melbourne Qindex 11:18 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 1.9728.

Gen dk 11:16 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Philadelphia Caba 11:14 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
good mornin'
eur/chf: there's report that 1.6200 holds a decent sized option barrier (mni)

PAR 11:13 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
German weather service issues hurricane warning for the entire country .

Cannes Oil man 10:57 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Yes a bit , as in :

I do different calculations for each day ...With sunday//monday/tuesday being the same..
Wednesday thursday friday more volatile..referred to as "boost" (lack of better words) days.

Large amount of datas to make the range, and a few tweaks but really nothing special , no PHD math's though for this.
Weighted ma on prices in an array on formula very similar to pivots.

Vancouver Mike 10:52 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Hi Oil man, How does your range finder differ from pivot points and their associated supports and resistances, i.e, S1, R1... etc.? Thanks.

Cannes Oil man 10:45 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Well getting really good this range finder, 1 or 2 pips from the high from all majors , but $y top..

Cannes Oil man 10:37 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
The range finder was right on track!Well good that i stayed flat and didn't buy the e$ top this time...Range finder saved me a few pips..good.


1.2976----1.2884 E$.
1.2427---1.2521 $CHF.
1.9767---1.9629 GBP/USD.
120.07---121.18 $/Y
6879---6962 NZD$.
7828---7894 AUDUSD
...rest cut use archives.

Syd 10:16 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Yemen Plans To Up Oil Output To 500,000 Bbl/Day -Oil Min
Yemen Plans To Up Oil Production In Three Years
Yemen Current Oil Production 380,000 B/D -

Auckland trotter 10:01 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
The price hit my levels for the EUR/USD I posted yesterday. But the 4hr chart at the moment is still the one to watch for now.

Gen dk 09:42 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Naples DC 09:26 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
out of half € long from 1,2914
autopilot @ 1,295

Syd 09:24 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
After Fed speakers failed to give any clues as to the timing of rate cut, the USD is now zooming in on the US CPI later Thursday for direction. The consensus is for headline inflation to be up 0.5% and the core rate up 0.2% in December, both compared with unchanged levels in November. However, RBC Capital Markets reckons the lagged effect of higher producer prices could help push the core rate up to 0.3%. This is "potentially bullish for the USD in terms of rate expectations."

Bahrain BAH1 09:20 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain BAH1 08:31 GMT January 18, 2007
Hi Frnds...
GBPYEN: 239.98 was June 98 high...worth to sell with tight stops. GL

ok closed here +33 pips. time for lunch now. :-)

KL KL 09:15 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
out usdjpy 121.36...+6 leave gbpusd short but lock in 2 pip....ninja day??...lets see

Gen dk 09:14 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 09:04 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Risk Of JPY Reversal If Data Turns
Soft Japanese economic data, including larger-than-expected 0.3% fall in the tertiary index, a 2.3% decline in department store sales and a downward revision to the leading indicator all justify the Bank of Japan's decision to leave rates unchanged. "The data has just not provided the excuse to hike," says ABN-Amro, forecasting that the JPY will continue to languish unless there is a "reasonable improvement" in economic data. But there's a good chance this will happen after the recent 4-5 month lull in positive news, the bank adds. "The JPY is weak and carry trades are well populated, so the risk of a sudden JPY reversal is also high," the bank says

Syd 09:03 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:57 GMT and they are stupid enough to buy it hahahah

KL KL 09:00 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
ok in short usdjpy 121.42 sl 52...lets see v. short term play less than 30 mins

Sydney ACC 08:57 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:41 GMT January 18, 2007
They can sell it to the Bank they are predicting AUD/USD 0.83 a six per cent revaluation.

Syd 08:55 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Forex Focus: Crude Prices Likely To Help Dollar Further
futures forum full article

madrid mm 08:50 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
fwiw

Bernanke Faces Democratic Demands to Focus on Jobs (Update1)

By Craig Torres

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke, meet the Democrats. They want to know how you fit their agenda for change.

Democrats, in control of Congress for the first time in 12 years, want to discuss the Federal Reserve's mandate to create full employment, not just its commitment to low inflation. They want the Fed to stop defining wage gains as inflationary and aren't afraid to challenge Bernanke, the Fed's chairman, on interest rates. Click here

to dr unken katt 08:49 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
dont short anything unless yo see divergence on 1hr
pretty hot market

warsaw TOMi 08:44 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 08:36 GMT January 18, 2007

hi catt, went after yr advice to buy dips gbpyen(thanx!), turn around on cable to 9770, rest squared with small profit,now awaiting €uro downside movement or better upside attemps and look for new shorts.

Syd 08:41 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
IN a sign of the times, a Sydney-based bank has developed a new indicator for foreign exchange movements based on Apple's iPod music player, and as an alternative to the long-standing Big Mac Index.

Launched today, the CommSec iPod Index is predicting a 15 per cent drop in the Australia dollar against the US dollar - music to exporters' ears.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21079626-31037,00.html

Syd 08:38 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Governor Fukui confirms 3 dissenters wanted rate hike, but he also admits BOJ divided on assessment of how firm consumption is; still, says weak CPI doesn't necessarily rule out move (CPI could stay weak on falling energy prices), CPI to develop as expected, one-off factors behind sluggish consumption; those remarks suggest Fukui not bearish on economy, near-term rate hike still possible; also brushes off suggestions that BOJ caved to political pressure, saying decision not affected by non-economic (that is to say, political) factors

to dr unken katt 08:36 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 08:19
this is hot night in cold toronto , i need a smoke
jak ci idzie?

Bahrain BAH1 08:31 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds...
GBPYEN: 239.98 was June 98 high...worth to sell with tight stops. GL

van Gecko 08:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye.. imo GBP & cousin Euro is living on "borrowed time' up here off their crosses giving good risk reload opportunties for her majesty's m/t players..

"09:29 GMT December 14, 2006
GBP at these levels may represent a rare limited window of opportunity for mid & long term players to sell at levels not seen for the last decade & may not be seen again for the next decade to come.. a Sell & Snooze theme for the next 10 to 25 years.. and where her majesty go, cousin Euro & others will follow like Pavlov's dogs for they all dance in a macro same direction vs the Dollar with lead lag steps.."

warsaw TOMi 08:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
ct Cris cable target achieved, what might be next? thank you..

Haifa ac 08:17 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY cannot be at more interesting spot
Potential double top against august 1998 high of 240.89
34 months from teh March 2004 big reversal.
Very tempting!

warsaw TOMi 08:17 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
wow, guess the number of homeless has increased across the world after boj no change.. anyway yen denominated loans should remain cheap,so it's not that bad after all 8-)

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:06 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 07:44 GMT January 18, 2007
thanks you. I am fine.
although your reason is logic, maybe the pattern said different.

to dr unken katt 07:44 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
hi Raden
ho you doing today ?
theres no sellers today , euro cable yen moving all in the same direction

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:41 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
hello all.
how are u? I hope you all are fine.
lets see what will happened when gbp/usd show 1.9755-57.

maybe sgbp/usd sellers there.

jkt-aye 07:41 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Hello Gecko, how do you see the dancing queen this time? tia

van Gecko 07:31 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 04:57.. above 121.38, it could be mayhem in Geisha Street with the Dollar "Slinging" up another yen to 122.38 in a flash..

as for "fish", they comes in various size & temperament in this cesspool, most dance with a risky "left foot" & possess an uncanny fx knack for swimming against the tide..

madrid mm 07:25 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Focus on BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui news conference. First time that 3 members voted against a key decision since Oct 23.

BoJ report says Japan economy is weaker than forecast in Oct Half yearly outlook report. Japan CPI weaker than projected in October outlook. Japan CGPI seen weaker than expected. Japan economy seen moving in line with outlook. Weaker GDP growth due partly to revision in FY05/06 GDP and bad weather. January monthly report says Japan economy expanding moderately, keeps assessment unchanged.

St Louis Fed President William Poole says Fed is "well positioned where we are" on rates and inflation seems to be "gradually creeping down". Fed must be open to policy change but if economy meets the forecast then no need for early rate change. At some point will need to change policy, but does not know which way it will go. Will only lower rates if the new information is "pretty compelling. Comfortable with inflation range of 1-2%, prefer rate in middle of that range.

St Louis Fed President William Poole says he is not confident that the worst of the state of the US housing market is over. US could see failures of some local builders and even regional players. GSEs do not warrant AAA credits on the basis of their capital.

Choppy day for JPY, Cross/JPY, as JPY falling broadly across the board after BoJ Decision to keep rates unchanged, albeit by a 6-3 majority and not unanimous, and also the BoJ report that economy and CPI is somewhat weaker compared to Oct outlook.

USD/JPY pierces through 121.00 after working Very hard "pip" by "pip" to take out the barriers and stoploss there to fresh 13-month highs of 121.13 and still climbing, its highest level since Dec 2005 highs of 121.39-40, a break of 121.40 will see USD/JPY at its highest level in almost 4 years since March 2003 highs of 121.87. Hearing more barriers at 121.20/25/ 121.50/ 122.00.

Focus on BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui news conference now on his "explanation" for keeping rates unchanged. Also focus on possible FX comments from top MoF FX diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe after the sharp JPY fall post BoJ, should he comment on FX moves excessive.

Hearing broad based buying in USD/JPY from Europeans, big German, Dutch, US investment houses, Middle East and Russian names.

EUR/JPY extends gains to 157, after good buying from large Swiss house >200-300m, triggering stops at 156.55-75 earlier.

GBP/JPY hit fresh 8 year 5 month highs toward 239 handle, up more than 1 Yen on broad based demand, with talks large UK clearers bought good amount of GBP today on stoploss above 1.9725-30.

AUD/JPY broke 95 triggers finally after many tries, with large US securities houses buying, clearing large German/ Japanese offers to fresh 9 year 9 month highs of 95.40.

Mkt eye US CPI tonight. Bonds.

Nikkei +109pts at 9-m closing high 17,370. JGBs lower after split BoJ vote pt to rate hike in future. 10-yr yield +0.03%.

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 120.49/121.10, EUR/USD 1.2932/1.2977, GBP/USD 1.9692/1.9743, USD/CHF 1.2432/1.2475, AUD/USD 0.7857/0.7889, NZD/USD 0.6921/0.6949.

shanghai beyond_destiny 07:04 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Small fishs who shorts $yen under 119 will be bleeding to death...This up'train' is no stop for at least three weeks. Then we will see the market rumor a '100% hike or even a 50 points one... 124 is likely to be seen.

pd cumino 06:51 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 23:28 GMT January 17, 2007
To say more, not very much will change in economic terms if they hike tomorrow or at February. But that is not the same in political terms. If they think that, and if they are clever, I guess they will stay on hold. We will see.

pd cumino 06:47 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Next night in a hotel? LOL

london pk 23:01 GMT January 17, 2007
i would put my house on BOJ raising.

pd cumino 22:48 GMT January 17, 2007
Personally I am more skewed to a Japan rates on hold Thursday.
Anyway moves will be gradual and interest in the yen as a funding vehicle will remain strongly intact.
USD JPY history compared to i.r. spreads, i.e. when reducing spreads starts to have effects, and considering global growth at the time, is a lesson that everyone should have in mind IMHO.

Melbourne Qindex 06:28 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Watch the level 238.96 - 239.06.

Melbourne Qindex 06:27 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Watch the level 239.06

CT Cris 06:22 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
you can make 100 pips from my previous signal for today.

CT Cris 06:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd still in uptrend sideways heading twd 19775 then 19810. it may decline to 19700 first then rise again buy and buy another if decline.

Mumbai NS 06:11 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Risk reward favors buying high yielder gl gt

CT Cris 06:11 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd still in uptrend sideways heading twd 19775 the 19810. buy and buy another if decline.

to dr unken katt 05:58 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
you can try short cable
at the resistance

sydney 05:45 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
what now

Shenzhen Chun 05:35 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Van Gacok -- if dollar yen goes up, the "reason" is not short squeeze of small fishes at 119 and below. shorting dollar yen carries heavy interest rate penalty and not many fishes short it for more than a few days. If small fishes are dollar bearish, they can buy high yielders, like cable.

sydney 05:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Out with the Big Mac index and in with the Ipod!!!


http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21079626-31037,00.html

Makassar Alimin 04:57 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 04:23 GMT January 18, 2007

agree gecko, i am looking at 121 today

SINGAPORE gfx 04:24 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
MELBOURNE QINDEX,

Is GBP/JPY moving towards 240. Thanks

van Gecko 04:23 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
the real show is yet to come..
fishes are short with the majority swimming below 119.. more squeeze to come..

Syd 04:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
syd 04:08 GMT Can you please change your handle thanks

Makassar Alimin 04:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
is this it? we have been anxiously waiting for so long LOL...totally disappointing impact

Syd 04:18 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Rate Hike Likely In February Or March - SG

BOJ decision to keep rates on hold was "natural given the weakness of consumer spending data" recently, says Akio Yoshino, market economist at Societe Generale Asset Management. But says BOJ likely to raise rates in February or March given broader strength of economy; news of 3 dissenters suggests board has members wanting to push ahead with rate hike.

to dr unken katt 04:16 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
y Mayumi Otsuma

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent, appeasing government officials who say consumer spending and inflation are too weak to withstand higher borrowing costs.

Policymakers kept the overnight lending rate unchanged for a sixth month in a six-to-three decision, the bank said in a statement today in Tokyo. The July increase was the first since the world's second-largest economy started to emerge from seven years of deflation

to dr unken katt 04:14 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
left unchage but divided vote 6 to 3

hong kong nt 04:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Looking at commodity fronts, price action "foretells" no rate hike...

syd 04:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
boj no move

Syd 04:07 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Board Vote Split For 1st Time Since March 9, 2006
BOJ Board Voted 6-3 To Leave Policy Unchanged
BOJ Board Votes To Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged

hong kong nt 03:59 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
BOJ booked a table for shashimi in a nice restaurant at 1:00pm..

Sydney ACC 03:47 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
REMINDER OF THE TIMES OFTHOSE PAST RELEASES:
san miniato ab 20:29 GMT January 17, 2007
something abt boj timing:
recent BOJ unchanged rate verdicts cluster around 12,30 pm local time: Aug 11 at 12,17 pm, Sept 8 at 12,37 pm, Oct 13 at 12,47 pm, Oct 31 at 14,47 pm, Nov 16 at 12,24 pm and Dec 19 at 12,26 pm. Instead the Jul 14 hike came out at about one hour latern at 1,40 pm. (Font UBS from BOJ website)

Syd 03:42 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Abe:Think BOJ Move To Be In Line With Govt Policy Stance

hong kong nt 03:41 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY -- MAXIMUM causalities if there is no hike and USD/JPY dive rapidly from 120...

Sydney ACC 03:38 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 03:30 GMT January 18, 2007
MY view is that there will be no interest rate increase. The initial recation will be for it gap to say 1.3020 and the market will sell into it. The market is short USD now so later on they will buy it back and ultimately it will end up at roughly the same leveln we started this morning. Further on the whole carry trade scenario will continue.
As you pointed out if you had shorted USD say against GBP earlier at 1.9700 you now have a 35 point cushion or profit if you lock it in going into the announcement. Very nice.

Makassar Alimin 03:33 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
come on BOJ, prove it! dont just talk

Cannes Oil man 03:30 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 03:25 GMT January 18, 2007

Are you saying the market will make a complete turn around from current move , and for exemple E$ goes back to 1.2880?

Dallas The Paw 03:26 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
anyone have any info on 121.00 options? should this be a significant barrier if no hike?

LKWD JJ 03:25 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
sydney acc maybe you have too much exposure.

Sydney ACC 03:25 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 03:23 GMT January 18, 2007
You reckon - when there is an announcement watch the market gap.

sydney 03:24 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
NHK corrected itself by adding 'may' not hike rates!!!

Cannes Oil man 03:23 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
If you were short $ you would have a banana smile though..
Market is offering stops to entries.

Sydney ACC 03:21 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
This is crazy - we are waiuting on Japanese interest rate announcement and bthe yen is rock solid and the other majors are jumping around like Mexican beans.
The palms of my hands are so sweaty I am having trouble typing.

Makassar Alimin 03:12 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:52 GMT January 18, 2007

BOJ is a lion with no teeth, can only roar

TORONTO 03:08 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
The talk cannot be confirmed but there is talk that national broadcasting
company NHK may have aired a no change in policy

Syd 02:52 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:48 GMT agree , too many people leaning one way, really a difficult call but look what the BOE did

Sydney ACC 02:48 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:28 GMT January 18, 2007
I don't know what's hotter the screen or the weather outside. Looks like another dose of buy the rumour/sell the fact.
All the news agencies carrying headlines no change to interst rates. Either way I reckon there'll it will be bedlam when the announcement is made.

Cannes Oil man 02:39 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
I have posted a range , just use this.

Syd 02:28 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY May Try 119 If Fukui Hawkish -Trader

USA BAY 02:25 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man,

Don't catch you.

Philadelphia Caba 02:24 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
have eur/chf short order at 1.6150 with s/r at 1.6200, t/p 1.5950-6000
there's double top at 1.6175

Cannes Oil man 02:23 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
It's where you want it to be.

USA BAY 02:11 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man,

What is the next step for OZI. Thanks

Cannes Oil man 02:05 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
AUD above 7880...NZ tracking closely...gold at 630..

Consolidation phase about to move to the next step...
Next step E$ 1.34 e$..

Sydney ACC 02:04 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
There's a lot of chatter that USD/JPY will rise to 121/122 should there be no rise. What then is the forum's opinion if there is - my guess is USD/JPY moves to 119.70 and then comes back to current levels only to move higher later.

Zurich 01:46 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
According to Bloomberg BOJ rate decision in 2 hours, according to all the analyst most likely no hike but they bet on usd/jpy moving to 121 and 122.

LKWD JJ 01:42 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
london pk 23:01 GMT January 17, 2007
i would put my house on BOJ raising
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why not bet with sell stop @ 30. shouldnt go to there unless they raise? bet with your head , not over it!!!

Sydney ACC 01:38 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
bangkok sid 01:33 GMT January 18, 2007
Check the archive someone posted the times the announcement has been made recently.
There is no fixed time it varies around 12:30pm Tokyo time, going by precedence if it takes longer there may be an increase - but no guarantee either way.

LKWD JJ 01:34 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:50 GMT January 17, 2007
gbpjpy shud do better than usdjpy whether boj raises or not. boe is in up mode as oppose to boj which will be a while before next hike. fed is on cruise for a hold/cut, as a rate hike is out of the picture. just mho

bangkok sid 01:33 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
hi could someone inform me when will the rate decison be announced by BOJ ( in how many hours from now) ...thanks

RIC fxq 01:32 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
CNBC Asia

By Reuters | 16 Jan 2007 | 07:19 PM

The Bank of Japan is likely to keep interest rates on hold this week, although the central bank's policy board has not entirely ruled out a rate rise, according to a report on the Web site of Japan's largest business daily.

Echoing a series of Japanese media reports this week, the Nihon Keizei Shimbun (Nikkei) said in its Wednesday online edition that BOJ policy board members are believed to be leaning toward delaying a rate rise until February or later.

Without citing sources, the report said opponents of a rate rise were suggesting the BOJ board wait for economic growth data for the October-December quarter, due in mid-February, before raising interest rates above the current 0.25%.

RIC fxq 01:29 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
and raise you 5, suicidal if they do.

Dallas The Paw 01:23 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
london pk 23:01 GMT January 17, 2007
i would put my house on BOJ raising.

I'll take that bet mate :). The tertiary index came in at -.3% m/m. There hasn't been sufficient data to support consumer spending and this should be the final nail in the rate hike coffin. Just one man's opinion and there's no need to argue as it will be determined in 2 hours.

hong kong nt 01:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Little possibility for BOJ to murder Jap pension funds which has invested trillions abroad. BOJ will maintain pace of rate hike, if any today, at speed of a turtle..

NY RP 01:13 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Gold moved nicely through 630 today. The bottoming phase always brings volatility. Sure will be fun when the 650 gatekeeper is stomped.

The BOJ decision itself is not overly important. The reaction will be the driver. Close your eyes and imagine they raise rates. Now keep them closed and imagine they do not. Well you probaly get the same image for both, either way is possible. So in times like these, shining up those dice and letting them fall where they may is the game. I see this event being over played. I hear traders talking about putting the carry trade back on. Did I miss something? I never saw it unwind. Are we not at highs on all Yen pairs? Maybe tonight is a good Discovery night? Pretty interesting stuff on future weapons. Good luck.

Gen dk 00:59 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
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Melbourne Qindex 00:23 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 00:19 GMT - The risk is always there.

Zurich 00:19 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

GBP/JPY since it is reaching the top range, once reached will there be more upside till 240 or a correction is due. Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 00:17 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Buy on rumour and sell on fact.

Melbourne Qindex 00:16 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : As shown in my monthly cycle frequency chart the market can easily move between 234.72 - 238.34.

Zurich 00:12 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
Bloomberg reporting there won't be any rate hike by BOJ.

kuala lumpur semiji 00:01 GMT January 18, 2007 Reply   
,r cannes .. tq so much ,,, sir can u teach me ?