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Forex Forum Archive for 01/21/2007

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Sydney ACC 23:53 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:03 GMT January 21, 2007
He gambled and lost. His company should have a hedging strategy in place.
AUD/USD traded between 0.7020 and 0.7980 throughout the course of 2006. Why didn't he do something at 0.7020? With the forward margin he coukld have bought AUD sub 70 cents.
Why because he was greedy and through lacking a hedging strategy he could not take advantage of beneficial trends.

Cannes Oil man 23:52 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Athens 23:36 GMT January 21, 2007

That was it then.

Athens 23:36 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, $/JPY never traded around 135 in 2000, its range that year was 101.40-115.10. It traded 135 in January-February 2002.

UK Alex 23:32 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Modelling the Oil Price Impact

Cannes Oil man 23:12 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
I should call that misubishi girl , back in 2000 , when $y was around 135 (I shorted 135.06 , not sure if it's still in archives) , that woman was telling me 150..I said , i think you are right, and shorted 135.

//AG , ask her if $/Y is going to 160 , so we know what to do ..LOL.

Syd 22:27 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:09 we have an election coming soon here that is 50-50 could upset the apple cart if Labour get in the unknown may cause a ripple

Sydney ACC 22:09 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:52 GMT January 21, 2007
Do a search "Westpac Swiss Franc Loans".
The ABC made a drama based on what happened. Showed it about ten years ago now I think. Australian farmer talked into borrowing CHF. Bank destroyed docyumentary evidence.
All not very nice. Basically because it was so soon after the float and in the middle of financial deregulation few had an idea of what could happen. Certainly no one I know knew that AUD would plummet to the extent it did at that time. Then later that year after teh Plaza Agreement CHF strengthened against USD and AUD continued to weaken by August 1986 we broke parity with CHF.

LKWD JJ 22:03 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
from bloomberg
this was from the article re:aussie dollar

John Casella, whose father founded the winemaker in Yenda, Australia, in 1965, said he didn't hedge enough in 2006 because banks said the Australian dollar would fall.

National Australia Bank Ltd., the nation's biggest bank, and New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-biggest U.S. bank, last January predicted the local dollar would end 2006 below 70 cents.

``When banks said it would go into the 60s it did wrong- foot us,'' said Casella. ``We may have to do more hedging. We would have taken more out at the very low 70s had the advice not been there. You live and learn.''

Cannes Oil man 21:56 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:46 GMT January 21, 2007

Well don't need to look in 1985 to see this kinds of things..
Most of the populace is LONG bonds at this time...I know i looked the portofolio of some of my friends...
They have all possible bonds (advised by their bankers, another BIG name, not some crap little bank, a MAJOR name)..Result on each line is about -32% to this day (the less hurt are the OZI bonds), portofolio is like Long ozi bonds, long turkish bonds, long Nok bonds , Tbonds ...etc...All taken RIGHT before the first rise..Of course the bankers tell them , this won't be a loss, all you need to do is ...."Hold to maturity" ...Yummy.
Looks like right now the hype is SHORT YEN theme...Well not for me...Will go the other way!

Syd 21:54 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
IMM specs raise yen shorts to record high -CFTC

Syd 21:52 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:46 GMT I wasnt i Australia then , found that quite interesting many thanks

Sydney ACC 21:46 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 21:30 GMT January 21, 2007
In 1985 AUD interest rates were around 15% and CHF rates about 7% I think.
Around that time some of the Aussie banks were marketing "low cost" CHF loans. Farmers especially who were suffering from drought and low prices hit on this as a great idea. At te same time land prices took off so some of them decided to expand.
In January 1985 AUD/CHF hit a high of around 2.20 within three months by mid-April it was 1.38. AUD/USD fell from 0.8187 to 0.6395 over the same period.
What's more hedging lines had not been put in place when the laons were granted so the borrowers couldn't hedge. Notwithstanding the liability increased as the rate kept on depreciating some banks refused to provide FX lines to hedge.
Few of teh lenders had any FX knowledge and few understood the risks.

Cannes Oil man 21:30 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Re about investors borrowing yen to swap to other high yielder's..

I had a guy back in middle east who did just this..he borrowed what at the time was written to be the "Money in the bank" strategy(UBS advised)...He borrowed CHF at 1.87($CHF) , around 1997/99 area..He swapped to US$ , and "enjoyed" the carries..

I think to this day he still enjoy's the carry, but not so sure he enjoys the dimming capital.
Only way i could find to help him out, back then was to buy a call .95 E$ ...Guess he remade parts , but half the shirt is gone.

Syd 21:27 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
BCA Research is bearish AUD vs CAD, arguing AUD is overvalued vs CAD based on Purchasing Power Parity, the relative leading economic indicators have shifted in favor of Canada, and the global growth slowdown is negative for AUD vs CAD. The Reserve Bank of Australia has not finished raising interest rates, which is problematic for such a view on AUD/CAD, but interest rate hikes have already been priced into the region's money market and should not come as a surprise, it says in a report. "A positive working in our favor is that AUD/CAD is extremely overbought. Speculators are also short the Canadian dollar and massively long the Australian dollar, which is positive for our view." BCA is recommending clients sell AUD vs CAD this week at current levels, citing 0.9240 specifically and stop loss at 0.9500.

Syd 21:26 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:24 GMT it all depends on the CPI this week for the Aud .

LKWD JJ 21:24 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
SYD we didnt get the pattern as mkt closed above .7873 on friday in ny.

Cannes Oil man 21:22 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Isn't it strange no analyst saying ozi to .8060 this week etc..everyone looking for downside?..I myself find all this conforting.

Syd 21:13 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Axel Rudolph, MSTA
Aussie View
AUD/USD has probably ended an A,B,C correction, and should now fall below the January $0.7762 low. The Aussie dollar violently ricocheted off $0.7906 resistance, Friday's intraday high and the Jan. 3 low, and fell to $0.7846 against the greenback Friday morning. It would be form a "bearish engulfing" pattern on the daily Japanese candlestick chart if Friday's close is made below Thursday's open at $0.7873.
This chart pattern is negative and should lead to a short-term trend reversal. It occurs when a market makes a high above the previous day's high but then rapidly falls and closes below the previous day's open, thus "engulfing" the previous day's open-to-close trading range. And this means that although market participants pushed prices to new highs, these were not sustainable as sellers negated all the previous day's gains.
In this particular instance the fact this chart pattern occurred at the end of a symmetrical A,B,C correction gives it even more credence. Wave A is the bounce off the January $0.7762 low to the Jan. 15 $0.7860 high, wave B the decline from there to Wednesday's $0.7818 low, and wave C the advance from there to Friday's intraday $0.7906 high. This is just a few ticks above Thursday's high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January decline at $0.7897.
The rapid and sharp fall from Friday's high increases the odds even further that an advance above Friday's $0.7906 intraday high is not going to occur any time soon, and that a decline to new January lows below $0.7762 is now on the cards.
Short-term downside targets come in at $0.7845, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, at Wednesday's $0.7818 low, at the January 12 $0.7782 low, as well as around $0.7750, twelve ticks below this year's low. Medium-term, the $0.77 region could be in focus as this is where the length from this year's $0.7980 high to the Jan. 10 $0.7762 low, projected downward from Friday's $0.7906 high, comes in. Another, larger degree A,B,C correction could thus be made, with wave A being the decline from this year's high to the Jan. 10 low, wave B the bounce to Friday's high, and wave C the current decline.
Daily RSI and modified Stochastic remain bullish, but since they are lagging indicators should also turn down early next week

Cannes Oil man 20:55 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
ab, i did what i always like to do to my dealers...

I waited 3 seconds before close requested a quote , and bam closed....While i know they can't hedge the position...Gives them something to think about for the weekend..
Will retake the position at 30.

san miniato ab 20:31 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
hi Oil good evening to u my frd,are u still short in usd yen with sl at 121,65 or did u close it as mkt didn t go below 121,10 on friday? (for ur guidance, if cuds interest u obviously, i m still long at 121,30 with 121,60 tp 120,90 sl) tia appreciate ur comment. Very interesting was ur post on gold as opening at 636 bid seems good for me.

Athens 20:26 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, thanks. I repeat, that was not a trading tip and, besides, I never trade that pair but I have several friends who do. The level I mentioned is the day's Upper Model Level (UML) in my model and it only meant to say that at the moment this pair is holding outside (above) my model band, so a fall to that level should be watched thereafter and, more so, any further decline to the second level mentioned which currently is my Daily Basis Level (DBL) i.e. the mid band level for the day. Sorry for this length explanation which, very likely, is of no interest to most people here.

Cannes Oil man 20:13 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Athens, remark was not meant as an aggression, which you seem to have taken as such, it was actually just what i said , hard to play that one for 55 pips due to spread.

Athens 20:06 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, my analytical page (where that excerpt came from) has nothing to do with trading suggestions, it is pure dry analysis. If you are interested, my suggestions appear only on my Techs & Suggestions page. But, in any case, iif you find my very rare tech comments on the FF impractical or useless, just skip them.

Cannes Oil man 19:56 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Hard to play 50 pips on 10 spreads , is my points athens.

Madrid mm 19:45 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Dollar to Gain Versus New Zealand, Barclays and RBC Say

By Ye Xie

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy the Australian dollar against the New Zealand currency, which will suffer from a slowing economy, according to Barclays Capital.Click here

Madrid mm 19:44 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Futures Traders Reduce Bets on Decline in Canadian Currency

By Haris Anwar

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Futures traders reduced their bets against the Canadian dollar, following three straight weeks of a record high number of wagers against the currency. Click here

Athens 19:40 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Oil man 19:31 what's your point?

Madrid mm 19:35 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Currency Options Traders Are Least Bullish in 3 Months on Yen

By Min Zeng

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Currency options traders are the least bullish on the yen against the dollar in three months after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last week.

Traders are paying the smallest premium since October for options granting the right to buy yen for dollars. Japan's currency touched the weakest since 2003 last week after the BOJ decision. Japan's rates, the lowest among major economies, encourage investors to borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding currencies. The strategy is known as the carry trade. Click here

Cannes Oil man 19:31 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Athens , GBPCHF is at 4.4615 , so a drop to 2.4555 isn't too much no?

Cannes Oil man 19:13 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Think my views are well know, use archives , to resume :

Nothing has changed to make smart money, cb's, buy dollar..Profit taking , does not count as buying dollar in my books , as for the last 2 weeks they have been rebuying...(Sending it close to 1.30 each time against the euro) , meanwhile specs sell it near 1.30...However specs are NOT selling it near 1.29..(They tried once and got burnt by chinese cb making a big order)..So prices stay locked within tight ranges...However on the first bad new from the US , guess what is going to happen..There hasn't been a single bad news so far from the US in awhile (but prices do not move up either for the US$..)...If the E$ is close to 1.30 vs the $ it's for a reason, think a little , and ask yourself the question :

-Has something really changed that CB's should now buy all the dollar there are on the market (while there reserves are already at 80%+ us$)?
-Has something really changed that YOU want to buy US$ while it's been moving in the last few years from euro .90 to 1.30?

Solve this questions , you will probably know what to buy.
gl gt

LKWD JJ 19:04 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
oil man hi! is that a shs in the making on ozzie charts? looking forward to hear your take on it.

Cannes Oil man 18:36 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Meant ask.

Cannes Oil man 18:31 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Market just opened here on the institutional platforms , gold BID 636.00

Looks like the last week of the insane range and probably high for the $ for quite some time.

gl gt

Athens 18:01 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
A brief excerpt from Trendways weekly analtsis this Sunday:
"GBP/JPY and (just a little less so) GBP/CHF are the true wild beats presently and they illustrates perfectly the carry trade idea behind those wild movements. The very recent GBP/JPY surge to a new highs 240 covered 12 yen in a matter of only 8 trading days but has now pulled this cross towards a major long term target I had (240-241) and with the TC and MTI at truly high (but not yet exceptional) levels there is a fair probability that we should again see soon at least a good correction, maybe to the old high 234.80 or even 234.00-10 for a half distance correction of the latest upleg. Obviously a decline to the UML 238.75 or the DBL around 237.10 looks more realistic than the other levels. A support line through the recent low 228.05 is now found at 229.95.

The GBP/CHF rally by nearly 9 big figures in 9 days is not less impressive than that of the previous cross. A 50% correction to 242.50-55 is a fair probability. Modelwise we could see a first drop to the UML or the DBL which on Monday are found around 2.4555 and 2.4435 respectively looks quite feasible."

LKWD JJ 17:08 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
cot showing cad 5:1 ratio shorts, bp 9:1 longs, aussie 9:1 longs

Global-View 15:43 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
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Hanoi HAN 15:34 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
I am living in Hanoi, Vietnam and I want to open a live forex trading account on censored trading web site. Is there anybody can help to give me the instructions to opent the account.

GVI john 13:41 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
COT Analysis courtesy Cumino...

Save and Open

GVI Jay 13:26 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   

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nicosia y d 11:56 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
The Japanese yen continued its slide in the forex market across the board last week, breaking to new multi-year lows, in particular after BoJ kept rate unchanged 0.25%.
On the other hand, Sterling maintained recent strength and soars across the board with support from strong data. what do you think about the trend?

Lahore ac 11:37 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
hi all.. nice to see you all alive even after such a long time

jkt-aye 03:59 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
magnetic level for gold lies on 616.4 (4H) + 617.00 (1H). imho

Syd 02:53 GMT January 21, 2007 Reply   
Australian Housing Affordability Falls to Lowest in Two Decades
Hans van Leeuwen
Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Australian houses were the least affordable in two decades in the fourth quarter, after prices rose and the central bank increased interest rates.

An index of home affordability fell 5.5 percent to 97.9 in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, according to a report from Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Housing Industry Association released today in Sydney. The index dropped below 100 for the first time since the series began 22 years ago.


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