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Forex Forum Archive for 01/22/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.

ABHA FXS 23:53 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   

USA BAY 23:48 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   

Do you have any idea on gbp/chf pls. THANKS

ABHA FXS 23:46 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   

Como Perrie 23:38 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply

BEIJING -- China, the world's biggest consumer of coal and metals, will use its foreign exchange reserves to buy "strategic" resources, Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan said.

pd cumino 23:01 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Eur barely moved today.
Provided by me.

Syd 22:59 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Market pricing for RBA rate hike in February continues to ease after yesterday's softer-than-expected 4Q PPI result and ahead of tomorrow's 4Q CPI. Credit Suisse implied monetary policy index shows pricing eased to 38% chance of 25-bp rate hike at RBA's Feb. 6 meeting versus previous day's 41%. Pricing touched 50% two weeks ago after surprisingly strong jobs growth in December. Market expects CPI +3.6% on-year in 4Q vs +3.9% in 3Q.

Hong Kong Qindex 22:49 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market took the opportunity to go up to 1.18 level when crude oil fails to overcome the projected resistant level of daily target around 54.48

Hong Kong Qindex 22:45 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market took the oppertunity to go up to 1.18 level when crude oil fails to overcome the projected resistant level of daily target around 54.48 (The daily range of March contract is 52.10 - 54.65). The upward momentum of EUR/CAD is another major factor. The last daily trading range of EUR/CAD is 1.5180 - 1.5317. It is now currently trading at 1.5290.

Tallinn viies 22:39 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
EURO SUMMARY: Opened at $1.2942 after $1.2939/81 overnight range.
-- Euro had eased steadily from overnight highs and that move continued
in early U.S. trade, euro slipping to $1.2925 area albeit in very light
trade, the dip erasing bids in the $1.2930/35 zone on the move. As euro
rebounded off the lows, talk emerged of semi-official name buys, that
talk supplementing earlier reports of eastern European name buys that
had briefly underpinned earlier in the day. Euro recovered to $1.2940,
chopping inside $1.2930/45 before dollar buying ahead of the London fix
saw chop to $1.2930. Euro reversed sharply, tracking a spike in cable,
and euro touched $1.2965 in that scramble although trade was again
described as sparse. By the European close, euro was back at $1.2950
area and afternoon trade saw the pair slowly deflate to $1.2940 in very
subdued action, ending near $1.2950.

Provided by: Market News International

USA BAY 22:37 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   

Sorry, take rest. No problem.

Hong Kong Qindex 22:35 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
usa bay 22:24 GMT - I will only post selected items when I am in Hong Kong and will go back to sleep soon. I am still having my jet lag

usa bay 22:24 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
hong kong qindex,

could you pls comment on gbp/chf, gbp/jpy and eur/jpy. thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 22:21 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Gold : The current expected trading ranges are as follow :-

... 608.6 - [620.6]* - 632.6 - 638.5 - 644.5...

Basically the market is still working on the barrier of 612.4 // 637.3. I am bias on the downside when the market closed beow 637.3 in the New York session. Speculative selling pressure will increase when Gold is trading below the projected supporting barrier of 619.4 - [632.0].

london DD 21:34 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
thanks alot

Como Perrie 21:31 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
FT writes about Presidential candidate Sarkozy looking
to weaken the 35 hour workweek

Washington MM 21:26 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
spot usd/hkd 7.8015

london DD 20:59 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
hi guys, does anyone have a spot usdhkd level please?

dc CB 20:55 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
tor Pumpkin 20:40 GMT January 22, 2007


Syd 20:47 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Australian dollar loses ground overnight vs US dollar in absence of major U.S. data, weaker commodity prices and yesterday's subdued 4Q PPI result in Australia, which eased concerns about upstream inflation pressure. AUD/USD begins Asian trading at 0.7879 from 0.7900 late yesterday. Australian 4Q CPI due tomorrow, with market expecting on-year growth to slow to 3.6% from 3.9% in 3Q.

Syd 20:45 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Fed Yellen: Current Govt Deficit Not Big Burden For Econ

tor Pumpkin 20:40 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
no, CB. Nortel has been long 2 bio USD for this purpose for quite some time now. they are a USD based firm and all their high yield debt issuance was in USD. if NT has any flows to get done, they might be small sellers of USDCAD eventually to pay any Cdn claimants.

USA BAY 20:38 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   

Could you please kindly explain the significance of magnetic price please. THANKS

jkt-aye 20:28 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 20:10 ... magnetic price for gbpchf 2.4501 (1H). gtgl

dc CB 20:19 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Regarding broker has suggested that it has to do with this Nortel judgement: Comments??

Law Firm: Judge OK's Nortel Settlement
Monday January 22, 3:00 pm ET
Law Firm Says Canadian Judge Approves $2.5 Billion Nortel Settlement With Shareholders

NEW YORK (AP) -- A Canadian judge approved an estimated $2.5 billion settlement last week that resolves seven lawsuits between Nortel Networks Corp. and shareholders alleging the company misled investors during two class periods, a law firm representing stockholders said Monday.
The settlement, approved by Judge Warren K. Winkler of the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, still requires the approval of the Quebec Superior Court, said the law firm, Toronto-based Rochon Genova LLP, in a press release.

A representative of Nortel, a telecommunications equipment maker based in Canada, could not immediately be reached for comment.
In December 2006, two U.S. judges gave final approval to the settlement between Nortel and stockholders, reached earlier in the year.
As a large part of the settlement, Nortel has agreed to pay $575 million in cash and issue shares representing 14.5 percent of its current equity to compensate shareholders. The settlement also includes $228.5 million in payments from Nortel's insurers, the law firm said.

USA BAY 20:10 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone care to comment on GBP/CHF PLEASE. Thanks

Van jv 19:38 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
relates to previous note...

From Globalization to Localization
January 07, 2007

By Stephen Roach

What’s new: Globalization hasn’t exactly lived up to its “win-win” billing. While the developing world has benefited from the first win, in the rich countries the spoils of the second win have gone mainly to the owners of capital. This has sparked a political backlash that could favor a “localization” — driven by the self-interest of individual nations.

Conclusions: There is a striking asymmetry to globalization’s macro impacts: (1) With China leading the way, living standards have improved dramatically in the developing world; benefits have been shared both by workers and by the owners of capital. (2) Benefits in the developed world have been skewed away from labor; for the “G7-plus” group of industrial economies, the labor share of national income fell to a record low of 53.7% in mid-2006 while the profits share soared to a record high of 15.6%. (3) The pro-capital bias of globalization’s impacts on the rich countries could sow the seeds of a pro-labor political backlash in the US, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, and Australia.

Market implications: Macro impacts of such a pro-labor agenda: Wages could go up and corporate profits could come under pressure. There could also be heightened regulatory scrutiny — especially with respect to perceptions of excess returns in financial markets (i.e., hedge funds and private equity) and inequities of rewards at the upper end of the income distribution (i.e., tax cuts for the wealthy and executive compensation).

Syd 19:24 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD waits for inflation data

The Australian dollar made further attempts at challenging levels above the 0.79 level against the US currency in local trading on Monday. The producer prices increase was slightly weaker than expected with a 0.2% increase for the fourth quarter and this dampened expectations over a further increase in interest rates, although the Wednesday CPI data will be crucial for interest rate expectations. In this context, the Australian dollar will be vulnerable if there is a weak inflation figure. Continued interest in carry trades will offer important Australian dollar support, although the currency will still be hampered by existing bond redemptions and the weight of existing speculative positions which increased strongly again over the latest week. Overall, there is likely to be further near-term resistance above the 0.79 level, although with a possible gain to 0.7920 ahead of the Wednesday data.
Investica Ltd

Dubai Tony 19:21 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Chatham.Whats ur position on USD/CAD.

ABHA FXS 19:19 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Buy EURUSD at 1.2953 S/L 1.2920 T 2990

Van jv 19:18 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   

Goldman Sachs, as previously reported, is paying out $16.5 billion in bonuses this year, another record. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns have indicated they will each pay out some $12 billion in compensation. The five largest US securities firms—Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch—are distributing $36 billion in bonuses this year. In New York City alone, the state comptroller, Alan Hevesi, forecast that the securities industry would hand out $23.9 billion in bonuses, an increase of 17 percent over last year.

That figure is greater than the 2005 Gross Domestic Product of 104 individual countries, according to International Monetary Fund figures, including Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Costa Rica, Kenya, Uruguay, Latvia, Yemen, Tanzania, Ghana, Bolivia and Senegal
New World?

GENEVA DS 19:08 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
lots of Geneva guys out there...

Geneva 19:05 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 18:59 GMT January 22, 2007

Agrea with you. Keep going.

Baltimore Zoltan 19:00 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Thanks GVI, now I see it !!! Finally my 3 shorts of CAD are working out. Thanks again!

GENEVA DS 18:59 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
The borrowed time EUR and GBP have spent at 1.3000 and 1.9700 are over probably now.... cad and chf show the way...

Global-View GVI 18:55 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan, from GVI:

Vienna GD 18:54 GMT January 22, 2007
Chatham 18:49 ... i think it's due to oil ... top of the day 53.44, now 50.90 ... that's 2.5 bucks within a few hours!

dc CB 18:55 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
CAD oil and gold around its neck.

Chatham 18:54 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Well it would appear USD-CAD has broken the topside (1.1800). Not sure if this is CAD weakness, or USD strength. I perceive it to be the former. We are long GBP-CAD (from days ago) and happy to finally get some traction. USD-CAD seems to be the next buy on our radar, although my record in that cross is worse than dismal. We'll see how it closes...As an aside, AUD-CAD has also broken above 0.9300, giving us further evidence that this is CAD weakness. GT

Madrid mm 18:53 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Dollar Approaches Four-Year High Before Speech by Fed's Yellen

By Annie Pinkert

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest since March 2003 against the yen before a speech on the economy today by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen, who last week said a strong job market may fuel inflation.

Click here

Yellen speaks at 3:20 p.m. New York time in Nevada. She next votes on Fed policy in 2009. Policy makers next set rates on Jan. 31. The 4.5 percent U.S. jobless rate is ``exceptionally low'' by historical standards, she said last week.

Baltimore Zoltan 18:51 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Hi everyone,

Does anyone know what's moving CAD all of a sudden? Thanks!

GVI john 18:42 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Next two days. Key CPI figures (CAD and AUD)...

Tues, Jan 23, 2007
05:00 JA- BOJ minutes
10:00 EZ- Nov Ind Orders
10:00 UK- Jan CBI Ind Trends
11:00 CA- Dec CPI

15:00 US- Dec LEI (see +0.2% vs +0.1%)
13:30 CA- Dec LEI
13:30 CA- Nov Retail Sales

Wed, Jan 24, 2007
22:30 AU- 4Q06 CPI

23:50 JA- Nov All-Industries Index
09:30 UK- MPC Minutes
09:30 UK- 4Q06 GDP (prelim)
15:30 US- Weekly Energy

Mtl JP 18:36 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Jay 18:09 / Weber is talking thru his hat. Prices rise as a function of increased printing speed of money. Money growth in eurozone is above 9% in a 2% or so growth economy, so yes, he "sees" correctly. But wage deals do not cause inflation, government money printers do. Price inflation is a manifestation of inflation (in money sypply)

NYC NYC 18:34 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Interesting how that sudden dollar dip (that by the way did not follow through) ended trading (literally by the look of things here) today. If anyone sees it differently but that seemed to be the straw that broke the camel's back today.

Global-View GVI 18:09 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
From GVI:

GVI 18:07 GMT January 22, 2007
BBK Pres Weber:
- sees upward price risks in Eurozone
- ECB must act pre-emptively against 2nd round inflation effects
- higher than expected wage deals are biggest inflation risks
- doesn't expect oil prices to remain low

NYC 17:40 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Someone just sent me a message with this: "market is dreadful today." I guess that sums it up.

LA BD 17:35 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Is the lack of updates a reflection of a market that ihas no clue?

Madrid mm 16:39 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Summers, Trichet Warn Davos Party-Goers They Underestimate Risk

By John Fraher

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Lawrence Summers has a message for investors heading to the Swiss mountain resort of Davos this week to toast a year of booming returns and record bonuses. Click here

Cannes Oil man 16:10 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Though the real fight will start here 1.2960/80.

Cannes Oil man 16:09 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Major names bids.

London BT 16:06 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Is there any news out for why usd just fell?

Cannes Oil man 16:03 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
NZD back above .70..Next last week's .7130 , then .7400.

Tallinn viies 15:42 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
from GS energy comments:
OPEC Dumps $10.1B of Treasuries as Oil Tumbles. Fastest pace in three years. Exporters including Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela sold 9.4% of their holdings in the three months ending in November. Oil producers have surpassed Asian central banks as the largest pool of global savings, accumulating $500B in 2006 alone. (bloomer)


Cannes Oil man 15:23 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
ab, specs go against every move...

Right now the brunt of long in the US$ is in...GBP$ (79% as of today)..Sometimes what you read in this forum is the opposite of the truth..

Aka fish , as many post here , are NOT buying euro or gbp, they are shorting it.
gl gt

van Gecko 15:21 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
be patient ab.. frequent trading + carrying positions with -'ve daily interest when a market doesn't move is akin to h'issing good dollar into the wind..

hk ab 15:20 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
oilman, I think SPECS will not even short but only gold producers are the only one shorts......

Cannes Oil man 15:03 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:58 GMT January 22, 2007


EU theEUROqueen 14:59 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
happy day Bob!

the1,28-1,31 must hold till the end of jan..

nt good luck

happy trade

hk ab 14:58 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
oilman, concur, with China explicitly saying to buy metals and minerals, who dare shorts?

Porto Genius 14:56 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 14:37 GMT January 22, 2007
Long gbp at 1.9757 T 55 pips

ABHA i totally desagree... :(

Porto Genius 14:55 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
How to make many pips during this week?
Short gbp/usd 1.9760 ;)

Cannes Oil man 14:48 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Gold is doing very fine , the next resistance located at 651.

Probably a day or 2 before it's taken out..Meanwhile e$ takes the brunt from crosses.

hk ab 14:44 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
gecko, can you elaborate further about your gold accident again? seems the pair is moving further and futher away from the 600 line now....

hong kong seek 14:38 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
DR Qindex , may i have your view on gold ? can u c gold may test 670+ this month? many good trades to u

ABHA FXS 14:37 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Long gbp at 1.9757 T 55 pips

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:33 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 14:25 GMT //
NZDJPY - not sure if it is strength, to me it looks more like an exhaustion rally as the MACD and the slow stochastics are near to reversing to point lower - but it might be wishful thinking...
GBPJPY - this one looks more like near reverse mode as the RSI 14 is coming down from the 80 but againEMAs are a bit looking up and the pair is still far even from the 24 EMA
- - I look to enter trades more in premptive way - when I see some patterns that I have seen before - but as I can say most times I am just too early...

ldn jas 14:33 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT January 22, 2007
Thanks Dallas GEP.....

Cannes Oil man 14:32 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:20 GMT January 22, 2007

And so you think the CB's will go into $ more?Is that what you are implying a 100% "diversification" in US$?

Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
No JAS I am not. on the last GBP short , it hit my target of 1.9640 at the time and I closed it as posted. I would say howver that gbp has a pretty decent shot of shorting from here to 1.9680 short term.

Philadelphia Caba 14:25 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:23 GMT
strenght in nzd/jpy?

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:23 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
also it is interesting to me what happens in NZDUSD - since the ccy is not going to be boosted by another rate hike it is still in up mode aiming for the 0.7 mark.. wonder why is this happening..

GENEVA DS 14:20 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Smart money people.... (EURUSD longs) could be very soon in big trouble... no bounce so far... REMEMBER THE SMART MONEY GOING OUT OF GOLD (SWISS AND BANK OF ENGLAND) AT 285 USD 5 years ago... now all these smart money going into EURO... oh my god.... 11800 EUR there we go .... probably very fast...

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:18 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
I am currently short GBPJPY and NZDJPY on the assumption that those carry trades stretched too far for too long and need some pause but it seems to me that I am a bit earlier in this trade..

Hong Kong Qindex 14:16 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the market may hit the daily cycle low around 0.6548 already.

Athens MK 14:12 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 14:02 GMT January 22, 2007

This is one fish that has been swimming against the tide. ;) Let those carry crosses bail and I would love to swim with the current.. :)

Gen dk 14:12 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 14:07 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply

pd cumino 14:03 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   

van Gecko 14:02 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
london.. if Euroophiles get 1.2738, patient GBP bulls may be rewarded with an equal opportunity down @1.9398..

pd cumino.. risk adjusted forward bull-sight..
"08:12 GMT January 19, 2007
good inter-market set-up for the Dollar to repeat the Jan 3rd move.. her majesty could be the leader of the pack here.. cousin Euro & others will follow like Pavlov's dogs.. "

pd cumino 13:47 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 13:11 GMT January 22, 2007
From what are you deriving those very good odds?

kuala lumpur 13:41 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
how gbp/usd short n long?

london pw 13:27 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 13:11 GMT January 22, 2007
van Gecko do you think any good levels for longing gbp/usd lower down this week ? ......

van Gecko 13:23 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
"04:23 GMT January 18, 2007
the real show is yet to come..
fishes are short with the majority swimming below 119.. more squeeze to come..

07:31 GMT January 18, 2007
.. above 121.38, it could be mayhem in Geisha Street with the Dollar "Slinging" up another yen to 122.38 in a flash..

as for "fish", they come in various size & temperament in this cesspool, most dance with a risky "left foot" & possess an uncanny fx knack for swimming against the tide.."

hk ab 13:17 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
nt, I am seeing 123.45 and 125.50.....

Mla Evan 13:13 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Van Gecko, how abt Usd/yen?

van Gecko 13:11 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
vely good odds for Euroophiles to load their boat down @ 1.2738 this week..

Madrid mm 13:02 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
China Plans to Shift Use of Foreign Exchange Reserves (Update2)

By Xiao Yu and Wing-Gar Cheng

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's biggest consumer of coal and metals, will use its foreign exchange reserves to buy ``strategic'' resources, Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan said.
Click here

Hong Kong nt 12:45 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY -- sell 2 batches, one here at 121.7 and another at 122.3..fwiw..

Cannes Oil man 12:37 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Taro :1.9777___1.9691..
Didn't post them...Lazy.

Montréal Taro 12:32 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man
Did you post your ranges ? I didn't find them, looking for cable's range...TIA

ldn jas 12:30 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:50 GMT January 22, 2007
Are you still in your short GBP/USD Dallas GEP ? I am short myself and a little nervous of current price action....

Cannes Oil man 12:29 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
From GVI btw , as i didn't post them here today:

Cannes Oil man 12:11 GMT January 22, 2007
Using my range finder 121.69 is the high...(for the day)..
if that means has worked nicely last week though.

Cannes Oil man 12:18 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
**121.67 not 69.

Cannes Oil man 12:18 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Current :

121.69 Short $/Y + 121.31
Long GBP$ 1.9710.
Short $CHF 1.2504.

Cannes Oil man 12:14 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Dallas The Paw 12:10 GMT January 22, 2007

Claiming gains on every trades?
That if it were true would make me happy , but you do not seem to be reading my trades then..

Global-View Research 12:13 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
From Mellon FX Daily:

Key Points
• JPY soft after Nakagawa comments, but key levels hold for now. CPI features this week.<
• EUR-USD vulnerability remains in place given positive US news flow.
• GBP waiting for Wednesday’s MPC minutes.
• Quiet week for US releases. here to see full report

Cannes Oil man 12:12 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
The paw i was replying to this :

HK gm 10:24 GMT January 22, 2007
kARACHI pOUND/uSD 10:17 GMT January 22, 2007
Why dont all your people subscribe to Quindex service?..

Dallas The Paw 12:10 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 12:06 GMT January 22, 2007

Do you know me? Stick to what you know. Acting superior, claiming gains on every trade and being a rude jerk. I believe those are free as well.

ABHA FXS 12:09 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
LONG USDCHF 1.2455 STOP 1.2400 TARGET 1.2625
SHORT GBPUSD 1.9825 STOP 1.9885 TARGET 1.9535
SHORT EURUSD 1.3038 STOP 1.3097 TARGET 1.2825
LONG USDJPY 121.15 STOP 120.60 TARGET 123.15

Cannes Oil man 12:06 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
They don't subscribe , cause the world wants freebies.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:06 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
sorry but is it common for the market to trend for 3 consecutive weeks?
i ask for an opinion of people who have been in the market for a long time..
the carry trade is triving in low volatility but when market decides to TP?
is it some major tech level or fundamental event like the Feb G7 meeting/

Dallas GEP 11:50 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
longed eur/gbp , 20 pip stop, 20 pip target. 6550 should hold unless gbP/usd breaks long out of range which seems unlikely currently

Los Angeles Mojave 11:23 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY on steroids --- up 100 just since open of the Asian session. The August 1998 high of 240.89 doesn't seem so unrealistic now.

warsaw TOMi 11:03 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 10:49 GMT January 22, 2007

well balanced said.. :)
can only add, that I am still waiting for eur/usd to change hands in 1.2830-50 area, close my all $$ longs and see from there.. Either from here or 1.3050 limit(prev bearish trigger).
as far as yen is considered, if there is too many short yen in, wud expect short squeeze pretty soon.

Los Angeles Mojave 10:51 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
The 300 pip rise last week of GBP/JPY is not cooling. It looks as if it may hit the the August 1998 high of 240.89.

currently --- 240.08 asked.

san miniato ab 10:49 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 10:16 GMT January 22, 2007
Thanks TOMi, i m undecided at mom where cud be next move in the majors. Time is passing and Dollar effectively seems having lost its strenght as per year start, macroeconomic situation in US is looking brighter in respect of year end forecasts and chance to see a cut from Fed are now becoming very slim, at least second myself for the first and maybe second quarter. Further now oil is going naturally up, due to normalisation of the weather, so Dollar cud miss another support seen up tonow. But everybody now is trying to start to think abt a break on upside for Eur and Pound agst Dollar, but when u touch key resistences (1,3000) and (1,9780) mkt seems reluctant to go too much agst the greenback. I personally think that now also going too much agst the Yen cud be dangerous (this is why i closed my profits here) as next weekend Davos meeting cud be the good occasion to see some comments agst too much devalutaion in Yen resurface, just in sight of the 10/11 february g7 meeting. If we consider also the level reached at IMM where Jpy short reached again a record high (little below last year top) think that in case of carry trade unwinding we cud see a bathblood in case BOJ wud hit the trigger for a possibile intervention (just asking price in falling mkt cud be sufficient). So i wait for the mom even if personally i m oriented now towards a new depreciation for the Dollar. What do u think my frd? tia and gl

Syd 10:44 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Senior Iranian Dissident Cleric Criticizes Ahmadinejad

TEHRAN (AP)--Iran's most senior dissident cleric has criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for his nuclear diplomacy, saying it has harmed Iran, according to comments released Monday.

Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri made his comments at a time when even conservatives have said Ahmadinejad has concentrated too much on fiery, anti-U.S. speeches and not enough on the economy.

HK gm 10:24 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
kARACHI pOUND/uSD 10:17 GMT January 22, 2007
Why dont all your people subscribe to Quindex service?..

kARACHI pOUND/uSD 10:17 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Dear Qindex.....

wat is your daily cycle for GPD/USD and EUR/USD and USD/Jpy and USD/chf

PLsease give me daily cycle for those above.....

warsaw TOMi 10:16 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 09:48 GMT January 22, 2007

welldone :)
good day !

Dallas The Paw 10:14 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 22, 2007

Good Evening Dr Q(Morning for me),
What is your Eur.Usd daily range? I only saw your Asian session range. Thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.2961. It is likely that the lower barrier of my daily cycle will be tested.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:06 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Let your profit run if the market can overcome the projected resistance at 1.2556. A trailing stop should be placed in case it is a range market.

Caracus Hugo C 10:06 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
These gringos buying the $$$ can go to HE!!

Hong Kong Qindex 10:04 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : If the market can penetrate through 1.9697 let your profit run with a trailing stop.

mex sjs 09:59 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
just shorted gbpusd here at market 1.9728 sl=above last week's high, started to acumulate usd longs....but with tight & gt

Auckland trotter 09:55 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Missed the EUR/USD going to the 1week mid pivot. Don’t have an explanation other than an uncertain slow market which could indicate profit taking. Particularly as around the 1.2966 appears to be a testing level on the 1hr 30day chart.

san miniato ab 09:48 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Closed old long usd yen position at 121,60, now wait to see if there is a break between here and 121,90.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:46 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 09:40 GMT //
hello and tnx for the answer!
can I ask if possible on the help forum a bit moreelaboration or maybe a source to read because I understand that these uridashi accunulate demand in the crosses but I really don't understand the cycle and the process - and mainly I maybe misunderstood the parties as thought these bonds were issued by AUD and NZD banks and from your previous post I understood they are issued by WBank..
tnanks for the time anyway!!

Sydney ACC 09:40 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:33 GMT January 22, 2007
Syd 09:26 GMT //
Maturing Uridashis have not been a good indicator to AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY weakness over the last six months, however, there are AUD 3 billion and NZD 1.5 billion maturing before the end of this month.
It is always difficult to determine whats being rolled and what has been hedged prior to maturity, nonetheless one would expect some pressure on the cross rates from that portion not being rolled.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:33 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:26 GMT //

hi, I notice the AUDJPY and NZDJPY are reaching highs on the dailies - and I have 2 facts that I can't analyse myself - one is that as it was mentioned the YEN shorts are reaching all time highs and this might cause a squeeze higher...
the other thing is that some profit taking after 2 weeks of one way trending is increasingly possible...

Athens MK noted very well that it's a cross driven market - I overlayed the AUDJPY, NZDJPY and GBPJPY and the charts are identical expecially in the last candles..

Syd 09:26 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
IMF Rato: Be Aware Carry Trade Conditions Can Change

Athens MK 09:18 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
London pw 09:11 GMT January 22, 2007

Yes until 1.9843 and 1.9870 is broken. Then I would look to look at this move as a trend and reverse my positions accordingly. So my previous targets are still valid unless the above levels break... Usually I don't wait so many days for my targets to be reached. Either they are hit within a few days or my stop/reverse position is hit... When so many days pass by without either happening then it is an indication that the market is being influence by selling/buying of cross-currencies and the market is unstable...

Toronto MRC 09:16 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:55 GMT January 22, 2007
This is a slow process.

London pw 09:12 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 09:00 GMT January 22, 2007
Sorry Athens I have just scrolled down and seen your previous post so have answered my question - thanks

London pw 09:11 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 09:00 GMT January 22, 2007
Do you still have your short gbp/usd targets on the radar Athens ?

Athens MK 09:00 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Looks like someone has cable sell orders at the 1.9750-60 band that is capping price action so far today....

Syd 08:29 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
As carry trades increased, speculators' net short position in the JPY on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose to $14.3 billion in the week to last Tuesday. This is the second largest short JPY position ever, taking to 99.5% of the record set in October '06, notes ABN-Amro. The bank suggests that short positions have increased since the survey, given the USD's rise against the JPY since the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged Wednesday. Elsewhere, the survey showed the net long position in the USD is only slightly higher at $689M from $554M the week before. But, the bank reported, this masked larger moves with EUR longs being dumped for GBP and AUD longs, while CAD shorts were cut in favor of JPY and CHF shorts.

Auckland trotter 08:22 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 08:04 GMT January 22, 2007
I should add that the 1.2966 for the EUR/USD is an interesting level on the 1hr 30day chart, where it has been under pressure several times. From this chart it appears that this level is one that needs to be broken for more up movement.

Mumbai NS 08:12 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q Thanks ur inputs are always a gr8 welcome here ty

Auckland trotter 08:04 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Hopefully EUR/USD is around bottom price at the moment with the EUR market about to open.

23.6% fib on 4hr 20day chart is around 1.2966, and on the 1wk 3yr chart is around 1.2964.

I have a general pressure back to last weeks, and Fridays high of 1.3000. R1 of the daily pivots is 1.3003.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:51 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 07:15 GMT :It is better to wait for the market to tell you the direction.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:47 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 07:15 GMT -It is better wait for the market to tell you.

Madrid mm 07:42 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
With no major economic data on the calendar Monday looks to be a quiet session ..... 8-) But then again......

Mumbai NS 07:15 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud day to u Sir does cbl look decisive only after 1.9668 or 1.9803 and not much here culd i have ur thot there please.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:04 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:55 GMT January 22, 2007
Thanks for that report I guess we live in high priced cities LOL. Peace and GT

Madrid mm 07:04 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
WSJ: China's decision to make greater use of its $1.06t in FX reserves could fuel uncertainty about the USD but is unlikely to result in any immediate selling of the U.S. currency by the world's fourth biggest economy.

Premier Wen Jiabao, in a speech Sat at the end of a key financial working conference, said China would "actively explore and expand the channels and methods for using FX reserves," according to the official Xinhua.

China SAFE Xie Hemin says China will announce new rules in Q2 to give Chinese exporters and importers greater freedom in using foreign currencies.

ECB Erkki Liikanen says the risks on prices are on the upside, there is ample liquidity. There is huge amount of loose money around and when the risks are realised this could impact growth. - Finnish TV YLE.

French Finance Minister Thierry Breton says France's budget deficit stood at EUR36.16b ($46.87b). France should be able to have growth of 3-4%- Les Echos

UK Guardian: PM Tony Blair is likely to stand down early if charges are brought in the cash-for-honours affair against any of his key aides, including Ruth Turner.

WSJ/ AP reported: Determined not to budge under pressure, Iran announced new tests of short-range missiles Sunday,IMF MD Rodrigo Rato says there is no quick fix to the global imbalances; China currency flexibility would help imbalances. Pegged currencies regimes may not be the best solution.

US envoy Christopher Hill says 6-nation talks on ending North Korea's nuclear weapons program may resume soon - BBG

Swedish Finmin Borg says he hopes to carry out a second round of tax cuts next year, though too early to commit - radio - Reuters.

Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase says key to sustaining growth is to keep baht from rising too much against other currencies.

Markets seen to be suffering from post BoJ "fatigue", with most currencies range bound and players sidelined, leading traders to ask why the markets are so quiet - lack of fresh news?

USD/JPY edged higher in early trading to day highs of 121.40 from 121.21, as large US banking group and Swiss banks bought good amount of EUR/JPY from 157 lows to 157.43. Also talks of Japanese toushin, overseas investment trust interest demand keeping Cross/JPY in demand, with bids still at 157 lows.. Key 158.06 all time highs on Jan 3.

USD/JPY offers 121.40-50, stops 121.60, with options triggers at 121.75/122.00, and more stoploss above, bids at 121 lows.

EUR/USD supported on back of EUR/JPY buying, and hawkish comments from ECB Liikanen, pointing to more ECB rate hikes ahead. EUR/USD offers still coming in at 1.2990-00, though stoploss on break of 1.3010.

EUR/USD finding supporting on talks of Merrill Lynch interest in Germany's Commerzbank on Friday, with market cap of EUR25.85bln.

EUR/GBP remains under pressure, while GBP/USD finding real money demand on dips. AUD a tad weighed by lower PPI, though AUD/JPY managed fresh 10 yr highs 95.88, helped by Uridashi, Japan interest. Eye Davos WEF Summit from Tuesday.

Nikkei +113pts to 9-m closing high 17,424.JGBs firmer, 10-yr yield hit 1-m lows 1.645% on doubts over next BoJ hike.

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 121.21/121.40 EUR/USD 1.2955/1.2978, GBP/USD 1.9728/1.9758, USD/CHF 1.2475/1.2488, AUD/USD 0.7884/0.7906, NZD/USD 0.6943/0.6959.

Athens MK 06:59 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Los Angeles Mojave 06:40 GMT January 22, 2007

Sorry I don't watch that pair.....

Los Angeles Mojave 06:40 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens mk -- what do you make of this GBP/JPY resiliency? up 300 pips through Friday until a 40 plus dip in the US session --then fully recovered in the Asian session today --- strong cable drives strong GBP/JPY. question, will we see the aug 1998 high of 240.89? currently --- 239.72.

Athens MK 06:09 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Just had a chance to look at our dealer chart and noticed some signs of a leveling off on the pound with a possibility of a new try at a intraday target of 1.9666... and second target of 1.9589 if pound really starts to sell...

Average possible range for today: 1.9818 - 1.9666

Sydney ACC 05:55 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
There is a housing survey publishged today covering housing in slected cities in Australia, Canada, USA, Ireland, UK and NZ.
Moost expensive Orange County LA - 11.4 median household income, followed by San Diego, Honolulu and San Francisco.
Sydney is 7th ahead of London.
Four Australian cities in the the top 25 most expensive.
Cheapest Fort Wayne, Regina and Youngstown (whereever that is) on a multiple of 2.

Athens MK 05:52 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Good morning everyone just arrived at my office, what a beautiful and unseasonable warm day 21+ Celsius forecast for today.

We am still playing the pound with a bias to the downside target as shown below... Fundamentals and analysts are pointing to a stronger pound but I play to my trading rules... If 1.9843 is taken out especially 1.9870 band then a trend higher is developing instead of this range so take care. Selling high on the daily calculated range has been keeping our R/R intact as the pound moved higher.

By the way GVI have the other ATHENS poster add his initials to his post as not to confuse him with me.. Thanks...

Athens MK 16:56 GMT January 15, 2007

target 1: 1.9523 main target
target 2: 1.9460 secondary
target 3: 1.9403 happy target :)

If 1.9843 is broken close and reverse for at least 1.9943 and potentially higher...

hk ab 05:32 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Many thanks Dr. Q.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:27 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 05:23 GMT - It is possible to see some action this week but next week would be more importance as the market is setting the pace for next month at the end of January..

hk ab 05:23 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, do you see break out happens this week?

Hong Kong Qindex 04:15 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Gold : The market is likely to consolidate between [632.0]* - [636.5]* in the Asian session.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:14 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Well I hope everyone had a good weekend. Some of us don't really leave we just lurk in the background LOL. Nothing for me to say about the eur/usd pair since it has been range trading for the last week as I posted before so I save the space for others. AS MY PAPPY USED TO SAY it is better for others to think your dumb than to talk to much and remove the doubt LOL. Short term view for eur/usd: Key support 2890-2900, 2940-50 and key resistance 3020-30 await with main resistance at 3120-30 area for now. This pair is slightly bullish (range trading) with the indicators unwinding from the O/S areas. It is still sell on failed rallies but unless the key supports are taken out there is the fear that the move will not go very far IMHO. Peace and GT

london pw 03:21 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
any views on gbp/usd direction on Monday ?...thanks

NY RP 02:45 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
I must admit, seeing the Yen weakening above 120 was something i thought was NOT going to happen. The carry-trade is in full mode. I guess I was wrong. FWIW the carry trade scenario goes out the window with increased volatility and risk. My over all assessment is still Gold very bullish and break out mode is brewing. Wish I had batteries for the crystal ball. Good luck.

dc CB 02:28 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Implied Volitility of CME FX futures March options 1/19/07
( expires 3/9/07)

Eur - 57.8%
CD - 51.4
SF - 46.2
Jy - 6.7
BP - 6.5

GVI Jay 02:18 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
AS. One characteristic of a community is that while we watch over it, it is also up to our members to self-police it to define what behavior they deem acceptable and what is not (within the framework of our rules). For that reason we have an open door policy for anyone to contact us with any feedback, both positive or negative and those who have come to us know we are very responsive. This is the end of this conversation for me as well.

Cannes Oil man 02:14 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Ahe :

What my model shows low for the day on GBPCHF will be 2.4723---2.4522("boost" numbers, normal numbers are 2.4687--2.4563) unless it starts going UNDER that (on a daily close) , it might start going lower ...and lower..However for this to happen euro would need to go up strongly (liquidating the $chf euphoria).

Atlanta South 01:59 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
I agree, the forum is a well run forum. I am NOT saying any
different. What I am saying is there are some that are
constantly chattering about the comments & views of others
& I know for a fact that has caused some to leave. Sure
they moved over to the Pro side, but they did leave. The
GVI team does a great job without a doubt. No blame is being
given to GVI, but to only those few members who are
constantly @ odds with other members & their views.

Tks for your timely response, but I stand by my views &
this is the end of this conversation for me.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:51 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market is expected to vibrate around [1.2961]* with an expected magnitude of 1.2941 - 1.2981 initially in Asiian period.

Hong Kong Ahe 01:41 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Quoted.. Cannes Oil man 19:31 GMT January 21, 2007
Athens , GBPCHF is at 4.4615 , so a drop to 2.4555 isn't too much no? Unquoted...

Cannes Oil man, Athens did not mention GBPCHF was at 4.4615 and dropped to 2.4555.

From Jan08,2007 GBPCHF was at 2.3842 and rallied to 2.4694. Now it is at 2.4635. Correction of 80 points (2.4635 to 2.4555) from 852 points (2.3842 to 2.4694) is very normal. Athens model has shown it.

You may have taken a different first number before decimal by overlooking.

GVI Jay 01:25 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 01:00 GMT January 22, 2007 - I have said this before and will repeat it again. You give the forum too much credit and blame. Many have come and gone over the years and we, too miss them, but more often than not (and I know this for a fact), they have left for personal or professional reasons that have nothing to do with how they were treated on our forums.

What alot of you take for granted is the high level of our forums, which is amazing given they are public with members from over 100 countries. As you know, Global-View's forums operate at a level far above any other financial discussion site. This does not come without hard work on our end in the 10 years we have been operating and the contributions from our members (hint - participate more).

Global-View is a community, and as such is always evolving. We cannot control who comes and goes for whatever reason. All we can do is work to maintain the high standards we set and insist those who join adhere to them.

For those who want a more controlled environment, try our GVI service with its professionals forum. Some of those you are missing can be found there as well.

Los Angeles Mojave 01:09 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
My long GBP/JPY was down on Friday so was happy to see the rally -- got out with a small profit --- but can anyone explain that rally?

Hong Kong nt 01:04 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY -- market setup is ripe for short term reversal anytime soon..fwiw..

Atlanta South 01:00 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
I am "ALWAYS" amazed the when one or two "KNOW IT ALLS"
leave this forum they are always quickly replaced by another.
The really sad part is those that perceive to know it all
cause those that know more to finally discontinue posting
their views as they tire of the constant chatter from the
know it alls. There are many missing from this forum that made great contributions of their time, energy &
knowledge, but they have moved on taking their resources
with the. Can't blame them. Just my observations after
several years on the forum. Gt & Gl to all.

Syd 00:58 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:52 your probably right , I am off to the dentist right now see you all later :-((

Sydney ACC 00:52 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:45 GMT January 22, 2007
Domestic figure was +0.5% and the import figure was -1.4%. The lower petroleum prices have masked the higher domestic producer price.
The market may foocus on teh domestic increase rather than the headline figure.

Syd 00:45 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Australia 4Q PPI up 0.2% on-quarter, just shy of market expectations centered on +0.3%; no direct correlation between PPI and CPI due Wednesday, but pace of growth suggests some easing in producer inflation in pipeline as lower crude oil prices flow through to cost of production.

Aus Stu 00:42 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Oz data must have been positive, anyone catch the actual figure? GT

Cannes Oil man 00:41 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
My trades are audited , athens, if you really wanted you could see them (after the fact , of course).

As for you fxq , you should not insult people who are having chat while market is slow..

Cannes Oil man 00:33 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
March to may , is only 2 month, in 2002..
135 to 115..

Cannes Oil man 00:31 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
No no , i didn't take 15 month holiday on the red sea, that is a certainty..

RIC fxq 00:23 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens 00:19 GMT

seems some of our fellow forum posters have severe cases of posting diaherrea

Athens 00:19 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Oil man 00:03, you didn't need to write all that, I simply corrected your earlier error in the year the unit traded 135. But in any case, just for the sake of precision, the T/P 115.12 you mentioned was not seen until May 2003 i.e. 15 months later. The lowest reached in 2002 was 115.35 (July 2002). Anyway, I wish you many similar good trades. OK I am out of here.

Syd 00:17 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
Japan:Russia Has Seized Japanese Boat In Disputed Waters

Cannes Oil man 00:03 GMT January 22, 2007 Reply   
My memory , athens, does not remember dates, it remembers prices.

In anycase , there are people in this forum(One posted about it a month ago i think, so it might be 2) who do remember the $/Y short 135.XX for target 115 , (which happened 2 or 3 months later) , don't really remember the exact length , i was on holidays watching the quotes form CNN..My T/P was actually 115.12.

Not that this particular trade is anything special , I've had better ones , and believe the best is in front of me (AH).


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