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Forex Forum Archive for 01/23/2007

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Gen dk 23:39 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 23:34 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP

G'Day ..Long time no hear from you ....been busy?? U usually around NY time....and now a bit quiet like Farmacia, Gold Coast Martin.....me still doing the same ninja stuff the 10 pips game .....anyway gl gt to U

Cannes Oil man 23:22 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
This positions btw were posted on GVI...Though my US/NOK had a -150 at a time...But -150 is ...Nothing for US/NOK (when such a ccy can move easily 1K pips in a few hours).

Syd 23:18 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 23:09 agree feel they have another rate rise to go

USA BAY 23:16 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Thanks , see you there. GT/GL

Dallas GEP 23:12 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Bay, should hit target today or tom.

Cannes Oil man 23:10 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Ah forgot the latest one :

EURGBP short 6570 very tight stops...but this isn't really a long term trade...just looking for 20 pips.

Cannes Oil man 23:09 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Current :

US/NOK 6.44 short T:p 6.18...
E$ Long 1.3018. (had some before but that's all i got left).T/P 1.34
$CHF 1.2540 ..(same stories, all rest has been taken out)...TP: 1.20.
GBP$ 1.9711 TP : 2.500.
$/CAD 1.1820 (this isnt a single position, few adds) T:p 1.1666.
OZI 7788 T/P 81.
NZD$ 6930 (I had lots from lower , but gone too). T/P 74.
$Y 121.51+121.66 target 118.80 stops 122.50.

I actually wanted more NZD , but took profit on some and it never came back ...So left with only that.

LKWD JJ 23:09 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
syd key words are "nearing end" not at the end ...yet.

Syd 23:06 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
BoE chief hints at end to rate rises
Mervyn King hinted last night that the Bank of England was nearing the end of the interest rate rising cycle, saying he expected inflation to fall “possibly quite sharply” in the second half of this year.

His remarks came after market expectations of further tightening had driven sterling to a 14-year high against the dollar, at one point breaching $1.99 before falling back slightly
financial Times

Cannes Oil man 22:55 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
I even bought $CHF today , at 1.2400 , but took it out with 3 pips or something, was "hedging" my $/CAD's....Removed cause $/Cad seems to be going the "right" way now.

USA BAY 22:54 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

GBP/USD seems tired, how long you expect the uptrend to last. THANKS

Cannes Oil man 22:54 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
And euro too! Bought the break , though i ve got some short $chf left ....1.2540 , rest i've t/pd in /out.

Cannes Oil man 22:53 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
I was short $Y , took profit today at lows (using my range finder) , and reshorted now 121.51+121.66.

as for the rest , yes of course(ozi,nzd,gbp, Long NOK)...I'm also short $/CAD 1.1821 AVR ...Looking for 1.1667.

gl gt

LKWD JJ 22:46 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 10:24 GMT January 23, 2007
Morning,

Won't repeat what i've said for a few weeks...For those sitted , like i am , relax , and watch the market stumble over it's head today.
====================================
lol! sure did
btw are you still long gbp? and short $y?

Como Perrie 22:34 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Usd Index levels just neat above 84 are now key to watch for the Usd faith as well - on the opposite side.

An unxpeted and exeptional market move against the dollar might be into play if you see Cable trading tomorrow at 2.0000 or higher. No systems capable to manage It as maths got wrong several times lately.

Como Perrie 22:30 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
In general am thnking EurJpy to print between 165 to 170 ahead of the next BOJ meeting. (except a carry trade carneage begins, on one side doubt they will let this to begin but levels are starting to get out of any fundamental sync for Japan - so they have to hike at the next meeting)

Como Perrie 22:22 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 21:51 GMT January 23, 2007

the global situation is getting ever more complex, at current do guess if we should have some two or four weeks of squeezes before anything serious. Doubt this jpy to be sold yet more - me just some 2 pct of minor yens holdings in case the carneage begins.

dc CB...agree 100 pct. there s a fundamental gap between the incresed winter oil consumption just started and the stas delay and this is puzzling me a bit. In case It corrects lower 116.50 is a fair target - this beside the more complex situation we should have this week - but It looks the market is again in a fair, even but very extreme sort of equilibrium.

Tomorrow UK morning Gdp is also of note

dc CB 22:19 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:09 GMT January 23, 2007
DC CB, So sell usd/cad , target please. thanks

No target. This is a trade based on (repatriation) that oil moneys(USD) paid to Canadian Companies, needs to be converted into CD...it is "well known" and often given an a reason for the CD to rise on the 25th of the month. aka OIL DAY... Sometimes it happens...sometimes it dosen't happen. No brilliance here...just look at daily charts around 20 to 29th of the month and make your own decision.

Some on the Other Side will have something to say about this, I"m sure.

GVI john 22:18 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ACC- thanks for the info!

LKWD JJ 22:16 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
acc which way are you leaning on ozzie up or down vs usd ?and is there any other key data before the feb 6 decision? was short from 66 and covered earlier today a bit better than where it stands now.

Sydney ACC 22:12 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 22:01 GMT January 23, 2007

Commonwealth Bank analysts are punting on a flat figure for the past quarter. Lower banana and petrol prices contributing to a fairly benign figure.
As with producer price figure last Monday I would recommend looking beyond the headline figure, take a look at how much the domestic contribution is. Given renminbi is progressively revaluing the future contribution from Chinese deflation must be limited. RBA may want to nip in the bud inflationary tenedencies building up for later in the year notwithstanding weaknesses in NSW economy.

USA BAY 22:09 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
DC CB,

So sell usd/cad , target please. thanks

dc CB 22:06 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
FWIW.........Canadian$. Tomorrow is Oil Day minus 1.

Oil Day CD trade: sell AM spike (USD/CAD) or buy spike down in CD (IMM/CME Futures) in the US morning. S/L just above extreme of spike.

Plays thru the 25th...take off profit and let some run until stopped out (moving stop to BE at first profit take).

As one who posts(ed) here would say ....."let's seeeeeeee"

GVI john 22:01 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Australia will release the quarterly CPI data Wednesday (00:30 GMT). This will give the markets a key indication about whether price inflation will cause the RBA to raise interest rates in February. The RBA meets on February 6 to decide on interest rates. Street estimates are for a +0.2% rise qtr/qtr (+3.6% yr/yr) vs +0.9% (+3.9%) in 3Q06. Current odds are 40% in favor of a +25 basis point rate rise. The key spread on the U.S. minus Aussie 2-yr notes was last -137 bps (+1). The spread on 10-yr government bonds is -117 bps (-1).


LKWD JJ 21:54 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
with cable cropping over 100 pips from the highs not clear on mkt direction from here. made some pips but left alot out there.

does anybody think that regardless of cpi from australia it will keep moving with oil and gold?

san miniato ab 21:52 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
this is the Jay's post i meant

GVI Jay 19:55 GMT January 23, 2007
EUR/YEN making a new high. I could ask the same question I asked before but this time how does eur/yen get to 160? Question valid as long as 158+ trades.

Testing 158.06 was a high risk probability. Calling for 160 is the next shot in the dark because we are in uncharted territory.
Here are some possible combinations:
120 x 1.3333
121 x 1.3223
122 x 1.3115
123 x 1.3008
124 x 1,2903

san miniato ab 21:51 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 21:37 GMT January 23, 2007
Ciao Como, let me have ur thought abt my following post on GVI pls
san miniato ab 20:48 GMT January 23, 2007
Once more mr Fukui comments seems to me very very bening neglect towards further weakness in Yen. Appreciate any comments just to answer also to Jay post if 160 cud be acheivable soon tia

Como Perrie 21:37 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
A news story on Reuters quoting BOJ Governor Fukui that the exact timing and extent of any BOJ hike is yet to be determined was timingly printed earlier so to save the USD/JPY and XXX/JPY carry bunch back up on higher. It was focusing on the JPY and CHF carry trades with comments in the same article that Fukui is concerned over what the potential impact of unwinding the carry trade could have on global markets.
All in all It gets ever more foggy and with a growing level of concerns in the global financial industry.

USA BAY 21:21 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP,

Whats the time frame your USD/CHF trade please. Thanks

Dallas GEP 20:53 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Went long usd/chf looking for 1.2530 target

Van jv 20:34 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
SPR--costly to construct and O/M-
2000 expansion study
http://pzl1.ed.ornl.gov/ORNL_SPRSizeStudy11302000.pdf

doubt any study done to justify doubling SPR.........
if we can not have a war to make $.....

another way to make big bug for Haliburton and the rich?

dc CB 19:36 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GWB rescues the oil market and the Canadian dollar from collapse.

* 02:00 ET Bush to call for doubling capacity of strategic petroleum reserve to 1.5 bln bbls by 2027, according to official - Reuters :

* 02:05 ET U.S. to fill SPR at rate of about 100,000 BPD starting in spring through royalty oil, according to Bodman - Reuters :

02:23 ET Crude oil continues to trade higher in final minutes of trade following the president's plan to boost SPR... now 54.55 +1.97 :

ABHA FXS 18:23 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 18:02 GMT
chang gbp stop 1.9775

Madrid mm 18:19 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
fwiw for beginners and experienced beginners 8-)

Forex Online Learning Program - from The National Futures Association
An interactive, self-directed program designed to help individuals understand the retail off-exchange foreign currency (forex) market.
Click here

ABHA FXS 18:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Long Eurusd 1.3000 Stop 1.2974 T 1.3071,1.3114,1.3185
Long gbpusd 1.9840 Stop 1.9800 T 1.9954,1.20016,1.20118

PA dessi 17:46 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GPBUSD walking a difficult road. Failure to sustain 1.9850 on a daily and weekly basis this Friday may signal end of the road for the brave cable cheerleeders. For me, taking ito account the overextended and overvalued gbp crosses which are at or have surpassed major previous multiyear resistances, selling cable and holding previous sells form lower levels seems the logical way to go. Also, gbp and its crosses seem to have hard times during the end of january -march part of the year. And if one checks the monthly gbp crosses charts, it shows that if january is trendy, february usually trends in the opposite direction. To conclude, selling gbp in the 1,98-2,0000 box is good for 10-15 big figures, time schedule end of February or mid March, the risk being not more than 2-3 figures above. Pretty nice setup indeed. AIMVHO. Good trading all!

HK Kevin 17:25 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:30 GMT, thank you. I like near 1.9953 in the Cable montly chart of your website to go tiny short.

Dublin Flip 17:17 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
and despite similar doom and gloom stories, Europe is a better performer as well…

CAC +18%, +45%, +56%, +82%, +20%
Dax +23%, +55%, +68%, +129%, +28%

As Australia has been….
ASX +21%, +41%, +73%, +91%, +67%

When Bubblevision types opine the ubqiuitous "why would you put your many anywhere but America" you realise they are still stuck in the ninties where Germany was under the weight of German -reunification, Europe was unsure of the impending one currency experiment, Asia had a currency crisis and capital void which meant US had no competition for capital against the backdrop of the dotcom mania. The UK is getting tsunamis of investment funds these days and that underlines that not everything is just a reflection of what goes on main street (the consumer).

Dallas GEP 17:03 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Closed out of eur/gbp longs at a 3 pip profit . Unsure of that pair's direction presently but I am inclined to think SHORT from here so hence the close.

I was also wrong about the short term direction of gbp/usd although if it isn't overbought here it probably will soon be.

Dublin Flip 17:03 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Compare the 1,2,3,4,5 year returns…..

Nikkei +8%, +51%, +63%, +105%, +67%

S+P +14%, +17%, +28%, +62%, +23%

Hong Kong Qindex 16:43 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 16:39 GMT - EUR/USD : The market momentum is still strong when it is trading above (1.2999). It is also support by EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY.

PAR 16:43 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Market is all about yen weakness which is not surprising if one realises how bad japanese assets have performed the last 15 years and probably the next 15 years .

Mumbai NS 16:39 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud say sir is euro also losing momentum ty in advance

Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are as follow :- [157.03]* - 157.51 - 157.75 - 157.99 - 158.47* // 159.18

Hong Kong Qindex 16:30 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:15 GMT - GBP/USD : The market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 1.9882. Speculative selling pressure will increase if it can close below 1.9820 in New York session.

HK Kevin 16:15 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:01 GMT, would it be the 1st sign of weakness if Cable close below 1.9840 today. No position on this pair right now.

Rauf RAK 16:05 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Any expert comments on Euro/JPY pair

Hong Kong Qindex 16:01 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is time for it to take a rest.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:00 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : It is likely that the market has hit daily low and it is going to move higher.

Cali mmm 15:58 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Ok, Thank you Bar.

rag bar 15:56 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 15:48 GMT January 23, 2007
Good morning/afternoon to all. Can anybody tell me where (on the web) can I track the price of Oil live (or almost live) ? Thank you.

try here : http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

hk ab 15:48 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
our last barrier is gold producers, if they don't show up today, gold will not have any barrier.

oilman, yes, I have read it wonderful work on euro. Many good trades.

gecko//I think the Jan 3rd spike is due to spects but this run up is so systematic that I don't see any possibilities for spect to do it.

long gold now and sleep.

651 next.

Cali mmm 15:48 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Good morning/afternoon to all. Can anybody tell me where (on the web) can I track the price of Oil live (or almost live) ? Thank you.

teh 15:46 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
gold will shoot up to 675 now 645.50 has been broken

Como Perrie 15:40 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Me almost done for the day. Just watching around: do see brent around 53.7
hkd around 7.78 rand around 7.10 brasil recovered on oil earlier as well
some big international bond funds very active as from yesterday and some hedge funds yet in trouble but there are some thousands of them

will see what happens tom am very mixed and low risk positioned

Cannes Oil man 15:40 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab , u read this one?:
Cannes Oil man 19:13 GMT January 21, 2007

NY RP 15:36 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Hey guys. Gold reacting nicely. Certainly looking like Gold is tired of being stuck in the house with a cold. Looking to fly again. Once 650 goes it is off to 688 then the previous highs.

hk ab 15:32 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
gecko, but to share my view, indicators look like the gold and silver are moving with very solid wave 3 pattern. It is now being pushed up very systematically and I think if wave 3 is the case, the triple top will not be validated and the big names just continue to buy more and more. jimvho. I would wait 638 or around 640 to long gold though.

Cannes Oil man 15:30 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Gold spot is not long'd by small account at all...fact it's being shorted...

Paris mgv 15:28 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:21 GMT January 23, 2007
it is hard to take someone serious who lives in St BAN-ANNALAND......

Como Perrie 15:21 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Amsterdam Luke Lurkson 11:02 GMT January 23, 2007

as far as I see yours was a no sense from the pot foggy land.

the amounts of imports are published by respected oil research companies, if you would like to step out of the coffee shop and get a look.

van Gecko 15:19 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ab.. specs are net long gold & fishes are buying here near a s/t triple top.. I don't think the Chinese would make a habit of "massive buying" anything at/near a s/t triple top with the fishes..

Hong Kong Qindex 15:10 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market has a potential to test the supporting strength of the lower barrier at 1.0218 // 1.0366. The current expected trading ranges are 1.0218 // 1.0366* - 1.0464 - 1.0514 - 1.0563 - [1.0661]*

hk ab 15:04 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
gecko, I thanked for your view on gold and the carry elaboration. However, would like to know why we should not be afraid of Chinese massive buying? Won't that be horrible if one is squeezed for 50-60 bugs up before massive down happens?

Hong Kong Qindex 14:46 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
CHF/AUD : As shown in my weekly cycle the market has a potential to challenge the upper barrier at 1.0215 // 1.0290. The current expected trading ranges are 1.0139 - 1.0165 - 1.0215* // 1.0290.

Madrid mm 14:45 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Released @ 10 ET
Leading Indicators, M/M change
Consensus 0.3 %

BEIRUT MK 14:42 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
close long eurusd from 1.2965 at 1.3030
close short usdjpy from 121.14 at 121.20 loss 6 pips
now short eurusd at 1.3030 target 1.28

Philadelphia Caba 14:40 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 14:29 GMT
don't see 121.10 as a big support...

Hong Kong Ahe 14:36 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
People sell Jpy and buy all other currencies. The problem is you dont know when the Japanese repatriates the money. The risk is there at any moment and blood is shed. Grrr...

Hong Kong Ahe 14:33 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ldn jp 13:10 GMT January 23, 2007 - Middle East name buy EUR pushing it break the 1.3000

san miniato ab 14:29 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Bought eur yen at 158,05 sl 157,50 tp 159,00. Eur usd cud go higher again and usd yen held well 121,10 big support. This morning BOJ minutes very dovish (february think no good for hike) and without official claims agst this weakness, yen will continue to be sacrificed for carry trades. Appreciate ur comments tia

Hong Kong Qindex 14:19 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : The market has a potential to vibrate around [95.99] with an expected magnitude of 95.32 - 96.67. The current expected trading ranges are 95.32 - 95.55 - [95.99]* - 96.44 - 96.67

Hong Kong Qindex 14:05 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The current expected trading ranges are 1.6129 - 1.6142 - [1.6168]* - 1.6194 - 1.6207

van Gecko 14:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
euroophiles hoping to regain 1.30 should watch euroo/Jap like a hawk here.. the cross must close above 1.58 or risk another multi-fig dive for both..


Hong Kong Qindex 13:49 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is trying to overcome theupper barrier of 97.64 // 98.05.

Cannes Oil man 13:43 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ab , gold 642, next 651.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:25 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are 1.6371 - [1.6436]* - 1.6501

RIC fxq 13:20 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
LDN JP:

4cast

Tue Jan 23 03:25:00 2007(EST)

* 23 Jan 07: 08:25(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows - familiar names

East European buying of EUR/USD is being widely reported, helping catch the dip, but probably not yet convincing enough to see all the take-profit orders lined up ahead of 1.3000.

Aus Stu 13:14 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain BAH1 13:04 GMT January 23, 2007
Oh yes I do feel your pain my friend, I still struggle to trade a ranging market myself, the last 6 weeks have been a chore for me as well. Tight M/M is the golden rule for me, keeps you in the game.
GT to you

ldn jp 13:10 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Does anybody know what fundamental has moved the market this much ? I can't see any relevant news anywhere........

Bahrain BAH1 13:04 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Aus Stu 12:47 GMT January 23, 2007
Bahrain BAH1 12:36 GMT January 23, 2007
ok short cable at 80 stop at 1.9910 p/t at 1.9855. GL
_________________________________
Mate,
Much as I hate to be negative, 30 pip stop for 25 pip profit minus spread sounds like juggling knives to me, espescially with this market

2late mate.....thought will see 55 before 9910....any way no gain without pain. GL

Bahrain BAH1 13:01 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
stop done..... -31pips.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:57 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : the current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are 1.5396 - 1.5485 - 1.5574.

Aus Stu 12:47 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain BAH1 12:36 GMT January 23, 2007
ok short cable at 80 stop at 1.9910 p/t at 1.9855. GL
_________________________________

Mate,
Much as I hate to be negative, 30 pip stop for 25 pip profit minus spread sounds like juggling knives to me, espescially with this market

Athens MK 12:46 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ldn jp 11:49 GMT January 23, 2007

Sorry jp I just saw your message at 11.49

The answer is if it touches then it have a 95% chance of it going at least another 100 pips. 60% chance it will go an additional 300+ pips beyond that... There is a chance it could retrace from this level before making a new attempt to hit 2.0 but you will have to monitor when to get in carefully...

So plan your trades carefully...

Bahrain BAH1 12:36 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ok short cable at 80 stop at 1.9910 p/t at 1.9855. GL

Bahrain BAH1 12:23 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Get ready to sell cable...... for 20/25 pips. GL

Hong Kong Qindex 12:08 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : As shown in my weekly cycle frequency chart 2.4533 and 2.4802 has the same frequency numbers, this would indicate that the market can easily move between them.

ldn jp 11:49 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 11:30 GMT January 23, 2007
Yes thanks Athens but do you wait for your 19870 area to be broken decisively or just broken ....

Athens MK 11:30 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ldn jp 11:01 GMT January 23, 2007

I am at the point to reverse positions for a buy. The final barrier that I am waiting for is 1.9868 to be taken out... Then I will look for 1.9943 then 2.0 then 2.01...

I am watching to see if this turns into a trend as up till now it has been more range and crosses leading the action...

We are at the point it can go either way and we are waiting for the confirmation....

Hope this helps......

Hong Kong Qindex 11:26 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (daily Cycle) : As shown in my daily cycle the market is consolidating between [1.9820]* - 1.9857.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:22 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The mid-point reference of 1.9811 // 1.9882 is 1.9847.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:20 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : As shown in my monthly cycle projected series the market is trying to overcome the projected barrier at 1.9811 // 1.9882.

... 1.9740 - 1.9763 - 1.9811* // 1.9882 - 1.9953* ...

Amsterdam Luke Lurkson 11:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Bit worrying when the luckless lizard fails to make an appearance at this time with the usual cosmic debris. Talking of which, Pierre knows of two China shipments which should help a lot with foward ccy projections, perhaps he will elaborate when his weekend ends next Monday. Than well done to $50/barrel man and CT Chris for their insights.

Cannes Oil man 11:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
BTW the euro should stabilize around 12980 before new rise.

ldn jp 11:01 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 09:18 GMT January 22, 2007
Athens MK - I would be interested in your thoughts on the development of GBP/USD price action in the last couple of days with reference to your previous levels posted. Thanks....

Cannes Oil man 11:00 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   

Cannes Oil man 19:13 GMT January 21, 2007
Think my views are well know, use archives , to resume :

Nothing has changed to make smart money, cb's, buy dollar..Profit taking , does not count as buying dollar in my books , as for the last 2 weeks they have been rebuying...(Sending it close to 1.30 each time against the euro) , meanwhile specs sell it near 1.30...However specs are NOT selling it near 1.29..(They tried once and got burnt by chinese cb making a big order)..So prices stay locked within tight ranges...However on the first bad new from the US , guess what is going to happen..There hasn't been a single bad news so far from the US in awhile (but prices do not move up either for the US$..)...If the E$ is close to 1.30 vs the $ it's for a reason, think a little , and ask yourself the question :

-Has something really changed that CB's should now buy all the dollar there are on the market (while there reserves are already at 80%+ us$)?
-Has something really changed that YOU want to buy US$ while it's been moving in the last few years from euro .90 to 1.30?

Solve this questions , you will probably know what to buy.
gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 10:54 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is testing the upper barrier at 1.1800* // 1.1871.

Syd 10:45 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
FX trading turning http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/b70176c34ad323e/bsccc012307.pdf

EU theEUROqueen 10:44 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong nt 10:31 GMT January 23, 2007
yes

Hong Kong Qindex 10:37 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are 0.7841 - 0.7896 - 0.7951.

Auckland trotter 10:35 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Jay - please extend your censorship.

We have had someone running a scam, and advertising himself - now we have
Pune Help me 10:23 GMT January 23, 2007 asking for charity donations.


Hong Kong nt 10:31 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Let's all enjoy dollar index 80-85 in coming weeks...

Hong Kong Qindex 10:26 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : [1.2999] - 1.3021 - 1.3041.

Cannes Oil man 10:24 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Morning,

Won't repeat what i've said for a few weeks...For those sitted , like i am , relax , and watch the market stumble over it's head today.
gl gt
.

Spotforex NY 10:19 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Called "natural selection"

as gartman notes

Market can remain 'illogical longer than one can remain solvant"

Auckland trotter 10:16 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Now to take pips down for the EUR/USD for the correction on the short term charts.

Auckland trotter 09:53 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD still looking up - ref yesterdays posts to around 1.23000.

Stalling point appears around 1.2978. 1.2976 is R1 on the daily pivots.

On the other hand the 1 hour chart is showing some need of correction.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:50 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at [1.6168]*. The market is consolidating between [1.6168]* - 1.6194. The initial upside targeting point of my weekly cycle is 1.6245.

Bahrain BAH1 09:30 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds...Good day to you all.....
Watch out for Canada data today. GL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:28 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd pair: looking good for the bulls as the tight range continues on this early week. Good buy signal for the scalpers if the price range breaks 2990-3000 and closes above there but my models are still sell on failed rallies until the main resistance (3120-30) is broken IMHO. Peace and GT

ABHA FXS 09:26 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Vancouver Mike 09:22 GMT
cad in the way to 1.1890+ so i will short cad at 1.1890

Hong Kong Qindex 09:23 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are [157.03]* - 157.51 - 157.75 - 157.99.

Vancouver Mike 09:22 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 09:18 // CAD is a long way from 1.1890. Do you mean 1.1809?

ABHA FXS 09:18 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
short usdcad 1.1890 for 1.1755

Hong Kong Qindex 09:07 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 0.6503 - 0.6555 and the mid-point reference of 0.6503 - 0.6555 is 0.6529.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:01 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market can easily move between 121.22 - 122.24 and the mid-point reference of 121.22 - 122.24 is 121.73.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:58 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : 0.6503 - 0.6555

Gen dk 08:56 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 08:56 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:53 GMT January 23, 2007
me no worry, just looking to multi years positions and the like is not of my interest. ive not seen that bc call but reading bloomberg ft reuters regularly. have a good day gotta work so am off the forum bibi

hk ab 08:53 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:48 GMT January 23, 2007

dun worry, I just want to give back the merits to bc.
I think the trend will be much better during Feb.

Como Perrie 08:48 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:13 GMT January 23, 2007

not interested much in mega cycles nor looking much into the political victimisations, btw I see the Chinese consumptions needs and know when they will on two big cargos a day, but still some time.. much depeence from population growth beside the so much talked globalisation

but good a thing less to post and some clearance of the many stupid calls here where I add my last to the list too based on that bloomberg article link I dropped. Hence a thing less to do in life means other better maybe elsewhere...have a good one

maybe some suffering megalomania here I sense, maybe at times I did as well - but doubt am on first places of the magoloman of the month rankings in this forum

Syd 08:45 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Euro May Struggle To Extend Gains From Here
Euro bulls could find themselves being disappointed this week.
If everything runs according to plan, strong data from the euro zone will confirm European Central Bank rate hike expectations and help to push the single currency higher. But, some market specialists warn that the data could disappoint. Add this to signs that the euro is no longer as popular as it used to be in carry trades and a strong performance no longer looks so assured. Masafumi Yamamoto, a currency strategist with Citigroup in Tokyo, is particularly concerned about the Ifo survey of business sentiment from Germany due Thursday. The consensus forecast is for the main sentiment index to have at least ticked up to 108.8 this month from 108.7 last month, reflecting the strength displayed by the smaller but similar survey from ZEW last week, where the sentiment index rose much more than was forecast. "This week's key release is the German Ifo index which looks set to consolidate around December's multiyear high," said Stuart Bennett, a currency strategist with Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank in London. "Indeed, given the strong relationship between the Ifo headline index and the ZEW's current conditions index, which hit a new all-time high in January, the risks are skewed to the upside," Bennett added. "Market expectations for a robust Ifo report, especially after last week's strong bounce back in the ZEW survey, should provide the euro with additional support," said Hans Redeker, head of global foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London. However, Citigroup's Yamamoto argues that the negative impact from the rise in German value-added -tax at the start of the year will take its toll on sentiment. Though the deterioration of the sentiment was not shown in the ZEW survey last week, the expected decline of economic activity may weigh on the euro," he stated. And given that it is Germany's economic strength that is seen driving the euro-zone recovery, this would not be good for the euro hawks. Of course, other German data could still be positive. The market expects the latest broad M3 money supply data to show that growth remained high at 9.3% in December, unchanged from November. The three-month moving average could even accelerate to 9.1% from 8.8%, according to the consensus forecast. However, data from elsewhere in the region could also create some unease. French household consumption data Tuesday are expected to show a third consecutive monthly increase. Also, the Insee business sentiment survey is expected to edge lower. This would not only reduce the economic pressure on the European Central Bank not to raise interest rates too quickly, but it will also likely raise the political pressure on the central bank. Over the last few months, French politicians have been quick to criticize the ECB's hawkish policy stance by suggesting that tighter monetary policy is damaging the French economy. Certainly, the euro appears to be losing some of its appeal in global markets. The latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows net long speculative positions in the euro fell sharply to $8.6 billion in the week to last Tuesday from $12.2 billion the week before "Both longs and shorts were reduced, as speculators seemed to back away from the euro to focus on other currencies like sterling," said Greg Anderson, a currency strategist with ABN-Amro in Chicago. The noted that speculative open interest in the single currency fell to the lowest level since June last year. Nevertheless, with monetary policy within the euro zone still considered "expansive," chances are the ECB is still likely to hike rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% in March, with rates rising as far as 4.0% by the end of the second quarter.
Over the weekend, Nicholas Garganas, governor of the Bank of Greece, said there was now "a 100% probability" of a rate hike in March and hinted that there are more to come.
Bloomberg /Reuters /Dow Jones

Hong Kong Qindex 08:34 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2967 - 1.2988.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:25 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : As shown in my weekly cycle the market can easily move between 239.36 - 241.78 and the mid-point reference of 239.36 - 241.78 is 240.57.

Gen dk 08:23 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 08:14 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Watch the level 121.22.

Syd CH 08:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
PAR, can you pls define your statement on Japan being the weakest economy of the industralise world, are we talking about the same 2nd largest economy of the planet earth with huge trade surplus??? Please don't confuse slow growing with high level of savings to Economy with huge trade deficit and with private and public sector gear to their teeth for the so call growth..

Madrid mm 07:52 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
PAR

you have a point here , particularly for the fundamentals.

KL KL 07:47 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ok I am in short gbpusd 1.9820 sl 30.....lets see

PAR 07:46 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Glas is half empty.BOJ and Kampo are intervening in dollar yen and that makes the risks assymmetric . Target stays 125.00 and Kampo has been promised those levels by BOJ Imho. BOJ is incompetent but same can be said from LDP which did not manage to get Japan out of its economic mess for the last 15 years while the rest of the industrialised world showed fantastic growth .

Madrid mm 07:36 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:28 GMT January 23, 2007

is the glass half full or half empty ?
8-)

Hong Kong Qindex 07:30 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is vibrating around 1.2497 with an expected magnitude of [1.2470]* - 1.2525*. USD/CHF is positive when it is trading above [1.2470]*.

PAR 07:28 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
This market is not about dollar strength but all about yen weakness , carry trades and continuos capital outflows out of Japan which for years has been and still is the weakest economy of the industrialised world .

Madrid mm 07:26 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi says ECB needs to hike more to avoid excessive liquidity if eurozone growth expectations are confirmed, ECB must counter inflation pressures before they show themselves.

Eurozone growth will continue to be robust in 2007 and ECB rates are "still accommodating". Growing views ECB has done a good job, complaints linked most to French election campaign. ECB rate to start tightening cycle, policy has not changed. - La Repubblica- Reuters.

ECB Christian Noyer says ECB has not target FX rate for the euro but notes that the currency swings are currently less volatile then the time of the French France (DEM/FRF, USD/FRF). Noyer says current monetary policy very favourable for investment, not conflict between price stability and economic growth. - Liberation - Reuters.

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe ratings has fallen to 39% from 47% last month - Asahi Shimbun poll.

BoJ Minutes Dec 18-19: BoJ should watch data more given soft consumption and prices. 1 said BoJ should raise rates in Jan. A few said appropriate to raise rates after Jan if sure of economic views. Some said hike should wait till uncertainty over economy, prices are cleared.

Yomiuri Shimbun: Former comedian Higashi's victory in the Miyazaki election Sunday--without support of any political party--sent shock waves through LDP. Polls have indicated that independent voters are abandoning Abe and the LDP.

FT: The US economy last year recorded its lowest rate of labour productivity growth of 1.4% in more than a decade, data to be published by Conference Board, falling behind the EU and Japan. The fall casts further doubt on the ability of the Fed to cut interest rates as the US economy slows.

Conference Board Gail Fosler told FT that the fall in productivity growth was unlikely to be cyclical and the result of weaker gains in services' industries...

USD/JPY rose on Japanese buying, but topside capped by exporters, options offers ahead of 121.85/ 122 triggers after it hit 4-yr high of 121.80 on Monday.

A clear break of 121.87, the highs seen on March 2003, will see USD/JPY at highest in 4 years 1 month since 122.86 high on Dec 12 2002. Bids placed around 121.40-50/ and 121 lows.

EUR/JPY unable to clear 157.60-70, and keep coming under selling pressure, so not surprised if topside is capped by large Japanese, French, European carmakers, exporters offering EUR/JPY at 157.60-70, "preventing" it from retesting Jan 3 all time highs 158.06, but interest still to buy on dips.

EUR/GBP hit 4-year lows 0.6436 since Feb 03, large US custody, Swiss, UK clearers hit stops at 0.6540, pushing it to its lowest level since Feb 3 2003 lows of 0.6509.

GBP eye BoE King for hawkish tone, but good offers and options at key 1.9800 handle.

AUD/NZD lower at 1.1260 post weak Aust PPI yest, eye weak Aust CPI tom; hawkish RBNZ Thurs. USD/CAD at 14-m, eye CPI, retail sales today, key 1.1850. EUR/CHF still bids, but cautious of SNB Whispers against too weak CHF, with key resistance at 1.6200 handle again.

Nikkei-15pts at 17,408. JGBs off highs, 10-year yield +0.010% at 1.655%, with doubts still whether BoJ will hike

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 121.59/121.74 EUR/USD 1.2930/1.2953, GBP/USD 1.9756/1.9793, USD/CHF 1.2491/1.2517, AUD/USD 0.7873/0.7892, NZD/USD 0.6983/0.6999.

Madrid mm 07:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY is climbing back to its ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) levels, before the British Government announced the exit of the Pound from the ERM on Black Wednesday, September 16 1992, after speculators, George Soros amongst them, sold huge billions of Pounds. Soros - given the title - The man who broke the Bank of England- made GBP1billion during this episode. GBP/JPY hit 8 year 5 month highs o 240.85-90, its highest level since August 11 1998 highs of 240.91. A break of 240.91- or 241.00 will send GBP/JPY to its levels when GBP was in ERM - to its highest level in 14 years and 4 months high since Sept 11 1992, when it was at 245.15. The GBP/JPY subsequently plunged from 233.03 to 222.48 on Black Wednesday when the Pound exited the ERM. Barriers at 241? 4cast

Madrid mm 06:50 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
FOREX-Yen suffers broadly, hits 8-year low vs sterling

../..Sterling climbed to around 240.85 yen , its highest since August 1998 according to Reuters calculated levels. A rise above 241 yen would be a 14-year high.
http://www.reuters.com

Madrid mm 06:49 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
hello fx jedi

Singapore fs 05:06 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
pune help me 04:55 GMT January 23, 2007
Why can't u trade demo first? I believe everyone in this room also lost money during the learning process. Try get a part time job or something to earn back those money. I'm doing that as well... :D

Always a great pleasure to donating money to the forex society. Only then, will have a greater appreciation in forex.

Vancouver Mike 05:05 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
pune help me 04:55 GMT // 200 dollars isn't enough money to trade with anyways. Just find a job and start over again. But learn to use stop losses before you trade next time.

Sydney ACC 05:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Germans get by without the euro


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/18/cneuro18.xml

Vancouver Mike 04:45 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Pune // Stop trading. This whole ccy trading thing isn't for you.

Sydney 04:42 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
PUNE.....send me $50 first so i can pay for the administration costs associated in transfering over the $200

Pune Help Me...... 04:37 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Dear Friendsssss ....... I m Daleep Kumar and i have an account wit censored ...... since i have open my account i have lost around 1700 US dollors.. now i m out of money.... Please Help me to transfer only 200 Dollor frm them i can recover my Money and i m promising u to return that amout..... Please Help me it was my University Fee tat i have lost. U ppl have earn daily wise 200 there is nothing for u so plz transfer only 200 Dollor..... i wil be thank ful and i will pray for u forever. please help me ....... Daleep Kumar and censored Acc# 7519 Please Help me please. I wil return u back as i have got.. i m help less now please anybudy can give me please i kidly requesting as u ppl r earning from this market too. please help me....

ldn jas 04:21 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:09 GMT January 23, 2007
thanks qindex - appreciated

Hong Kong Qindex 04:09 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 03:44 GMT - My monthly cycle indicates that the current expected trading ranges are 1.9740 - 1.9763 - 1.9811.

Vancouver Mike 03:49 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Los Angeles Mojave // I presume you mean 10 20 and 60 *period* MAs on the 30 minute chart, not 10 20 and 60 "day" MAs?

ldn jas 03:44 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:02 GMT January 23, 2007
where is the next level up in the series please qindex for gbp/usd - any chance of any downside pressure...thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 03:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is under pressure from EUR/GBP when the market is trading below 0.6548.

Los Angeles Mojave 02:49 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Mike --- the last cross was at 6:30 PST (9:30 EST) this morning, but produced a 30 point loss --- I usually re-enter after a 20 point correction; we are still riding that correction at this moment and would have recovered our loss -- but i was seduced all last week and this by the GBP/JPY.

Los Angeles Mojave 02:36 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Mike -- when the 10 day crosses the 20 day in the direction of the 60 day average (red, white and blue colors) I wait 20 points before entering the market --- that 20 point "filter" helps reduce false positives -- I look for 20 pips profit, but that depends also on news, FIB and comments here.

Vancouver Mike 02:27 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Thank you, Los Angeles. What is the 20 pip filter?

Los Angeles Mojave 02:25 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Mike --- I use a 10, 20 and 60 day simple moving average cross on the 30 min chart --- with a 20 pip filter; that formula is not signalling a GBP sell yet. Watching closely.

Vancouver Mike 02:02 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Los Angeles... History tells us there will be a lot of volatility --

http://www.public.asu.edu/~mmelvin/jimffinal.pdf

Los Angeles Mojave 01:57 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
I'm still long GBP/YEN myself; i've gotten out three different times only to reboard the elevator. When it collapses, i wonder if the pullback will be orderly and sustained.

Vancouver Mike 01:57 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
If I recall correctly, last time yen were these levels against Euro and Sterling there was a pretty major joint intervention by all parties that caused yen to fall about 1000 pips in one day... my memory is foggy though.

ldn jas 01:48 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Vancouver Mike 01:47 GMT January 23, 2007
Thanks Mike - I am short also and wish we could head south soon but gbp/jpy so strong...

Vancouver Mike 01:47 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
I am short gbp at the moment but will reverse if it moves above 9840.

ldn jas 01:45 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Vancouver Mike 01:41 GMT January 23, 2007
long or short Vancouver Mike ?

Vancouver Mike 01:41 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Los Angeles, I have a gbp position so I'm watching this cross at the moment. As you say, quite the run the last couple weeks even without any real correction. Wow.

Los Angeles Mojave 01:38 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Vancouver-- GBP/JPY was 239.26 barely 24 hours ago at the Asian session start. Wow, what a long, steady climb with only short and modest dips---even for a day trader like myself.

Vancouver Mike 01:30 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Sorry, Mojave. I didn't notice your post.

Vancouver Mike 01:30 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBPYEN is approaching a 20 year high of 240.96 last seen the week of August 14 1998.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:29 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
The followings are still valid in the Aisian session which represents a overlapping period in my system.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 22, 2007
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.2961. It is likely that the lower barrier of my daily cycle will be tested.Hong Kong Qindex 10:06 GMT January 22, 2007

USD/CHF : Let your profit run if the market can overcome the projected resistance at 1.2556. A trailing stop should be placed in case it is a range market.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:04 GMT January 22, 2007
GBP/USD : If the market can penetrate through 1.9697 let your profit run with a trailing stop.

Los Angeles Mojave 01:28 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY continues to march toward the 240.89 high of aug 1998. Now at 240.72.

Syd 01:01 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Bird Flu Risk
Thomson Financial sees the big impact event of 2007 more likely to be Bird Flu than terrorism

Syd 00:38 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD barrier options stand at 0.7910, says BNP Paribas. Dow Jones technical analysis indicates pair trading within minor ascending channel from Jan. 10 low of 0.7758 on daily chart with channel support at 0.7850, any breach of which would be short-term bearish, targeting 0.7810 (Jan. 17 low). Pair last at 0.7880.

hk ab 00:13 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 23:38 GMT January 22, 2007

I think that was long told by bc in gvi...... Happy trades.

Tallinn viies 00:03 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 23:01 - ah but it still moved half of the move it did during last week
haha

USA BAY 00:00 GMT January 23, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Do you think gbp/chf is still a buy and the target 2.56. thanks

 




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