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Forex Forum Archive for 01/24/2007

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USA BAY 23:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Could you please share your view on gbp/jpy please and aud/nzd if you have the time. THANKS

Syd 23:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ To Hold In Mar, Possibly Rest Of 07 -UBS
RBNZ expected to keep rates on hold at March cash rate review, stand pat rest of 2007 rather than begin rate cuts, says UBS chief economist Robin Clements; while March decision will be close, with RBNZ keeping its "finger on the trigger," there are enough unanswered questions to suggest on-hold result; given there's "a patent risk" of March hike, believes RBNZ unlikely to start easing cycle until March 2008 vs UBS previous view for easing to begin June 2007

Cannes Oil man 23:43 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
It's slowly creeping up , viiies, but still looks trapped in the range..Would be much better seeing it close above 1.3030 once and for all..

Hong Kong Qindex 23:43 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The level 121.22 will be used as a reference again today.

Tallinn viies 23:26 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
isnt it worth trying long euro from here at 1,2959 and leave order to 1,2934?
if this markets wants to stay bullish, euro must keep over previous day low imho

Gen dk 23:17 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:00 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi is higher from the Jan 8th low at .6845 and above key support at the bullish trendline since June (currently at .6890/00). Though the market is overbought with at least another month or 2 correcting lower overdue, the kiwi is no doubt a beneficiary of the yen "carry trade" and continues to be an underlying positive. For now, must maintain the bullish bias but a clear break of the 7 month bullish trendline would be a sign to stop and reverse as it would suggest that a more important top is in place. Note too that it could trigger a sharp bout of selling in kiwi/yen, reversing some of the huge long positions that are in place ("carry trade"). Nearby support is at .6940 (50% from the .6845 low). FXA

Syd 22:55 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
FOREX-Yen up on news Europe wants firmer Japan currency
NEW YORK, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The yen gained against the dollar and euro on Wednesday on news that European finance ministers will push for a more forceful message at next's month G7 meeting on the need for a stronger Japanese currency.

Euro zone finance ministers on Monday will draft the European position for the meeting of the Group of Seven major industrial nations, a source told Reuters.

Philadelphia Caba 22:37 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ escalates hawkish tone from December, and "there is now clear and present danger of a rate hike in March," says Goldman Sachs JBWere economist Shamubeel Eaqub, who had correctly predicted today's hold decision; expects RBNZ to remain on hold for some time though data need to print in line with own expectations.

Tallinn viies 22:37 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, from MNI
EURO SUMMARY: Opened at $1.3005 after $1.2974/1.3036 overnight range.
-- With focus squarely on carry-trade unwinds vs yen, euro was buffeted
by residual flows vs dollar and remained under pressure, easing back
under $1.3000 after rebound gains stalled at $1.3015. Dollar gained
steadily to $1.2975 area of reported bids and a modest rebound from
there quickly brought talk of semi-official demand, supplementing
chatter that Eastern European names had been buyers off the overnight
low. Gains stalled near $1.3000 ahead of the option expiry hour with
euro lurching back lower on renewed sales of euro-yen, euro-dollar
skidding to below $1.2960 as stops were flushed out under $1.2970. Euro
based at $1.2948 as reported bids held firm, rebounding to $1.2960
by the European close but stalling there into early afternoon trade
before ending around $1.2958.

Provided by: Market News International

LKWD JJ 21:55 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
from westpac bank am report:

The minutes to the January BoE monetary policy committee meeting, when rates were surprisingly lifted by 25bp to 5.25%, showed that it was a close call, with a 5:4 split. The minutes showed that the Committee agreed that the balance of risks to the inflation outlook had shifted upwards, however the four dissenters argued that there had been insufficient news to warrant an immediate increase.

LKWD JJ 21:52 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
didnt read the actual boe minutes but the perception seems to be that at 5-4 voting in favor of a hike the mkt was looking for 7-2. however it can very well be that the vote was close because it was rather earlier than the bank really wanted , and therefore more members voted against. will post the article soon its in a bank report.

Tallinn viies 21:40 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
euro view from GS:
After yesterday's powerful price action which took us as high as 1.3045 we have unwound most of the move touching as low as 1.2975. Having just seen a few longs stops taken out on this move back down we think these are reasonable levels to enter a long position as the risk/reward seems favourable. We still think we are stuck within the 1.2900/1.3050 range but still favour an eventual test and probable break of the topside. The desk is long and placing a stop below 1.2940 and looking to take profit somewhere above 1.3025. Overall though it does feel a touch sidelined with Aud, Gbp and the carry trade in general rather more in focus.

Syd 21:33 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Dlr Yield-Support Dented By CPI - NAB
Decline in extent to which RBA is expected to raise official interest rates in next 12 months to 3 bps from 21 bps after yesterday's benign CPI has dented yield-related support for Australian dollar, says National Australia Bank strategist John Kyriakopoulos. Eye balling chart of AUD/USD vs 2-year bond yield spread suggests fair value estimate of around 0.7670, Kyriakopoulos says. There's trend line support at 0.7800, then three-week low of 0.7762 while initial resistance is at 0.7844. Pair now 0.7816, recovering from overnight low of 0.7793

USA BAY 21:29 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Your view on nzd/jpy pls. thanks

Syd 21:24 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Morgan Stanley's Roach Says China's Growth to Slow Toward 8%

LKWD JJ 21:24 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
ric ?? dont get it

RIC fxq 21:18 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

not that I "saw",

sorry about that but I actually don't see it.

to dr unken katt 21:10 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
ok paris ds ,
show us some fine entries

Pecs Andras 21:10 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Thanks,at least this is a reasonably answer to my question.
Unfortunately,my news service says nothing about NZ

Oilman should have said nothing too

LKWD JJ 21:07 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
is that a hammer in cable daily chart yesterday?

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:02 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Pecs Andras 20:54 GMT //
look at the news..
the rate was unchanged at 7.25% but with a hawkish view..
..further tightening is "likely"... the RBNZ is uncertain about the housing market and domestic demand which are essential for mid term inflation.. the bank moving from hawking line to tightening bias should give NZD a boost ...IGM

LKWD JJ 21:00 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
oilman are you selling $Y again tonight? so far has worked well last 2 nights.

LKWD JJ 20:58 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

LKWD JJ 20:58 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
music getting loder

shanghai bc 11:05 GMT January 24, 2007

The song for the carry-trade is " carry on till thou art carried out on a stretcher".
mr music please!!

Pecs Andras 20:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:44 GMT January 24, 2007
it rallied cause lots of people bought it..

very wise words, thank you :-(

Cannes Oil man 20:48 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
use the archives.

USA BAY 20:46 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Where do you expect kiwi to go. thanks

Cannes Oil man 20:44 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
it rallied cause lots of people bought it..

Cannes Oil man 20:43 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
NZD back over 7000 again...leading the pack.?

Pecs Andras 20:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
In the past half hour Kiwi rallied 80 pips.
Anybody knows why, apart from the upcoming NDZ news?

Syd 20:36 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:32 GMT thks another similar article on Futures forum

LKWD JJ 20:32 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
SYD thanxs for that one. may just be an idea to keep a small $Y position open to catch the move as upside is not nearly as large as downside from these levels.

Syd 20:24 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
FOREX VIEW: Yen Carry Trade Bursting At The Seams
Dow Jones

NEW YORK The popular, and bloated, yen-funded carry trade dodged more bullets Wednesday, but its days of bobbing and weaving out of trouble may be numbered.

A sharp fall in the Australian dollar, where so many carry traders have parked their long positions, caused a temporary spike in the yen overnight as speculative investors quickly reversed their corresponding short yen (or negative yen) positions.

A few hours later, just when the yen had settled down, a Reuters report citing an unnamed source said Europe would seek a more forceful message that the Japanese currency is too weak at the meeting next month of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven leading economies.

Once more, the yen surged higher against the dollar and euro, only to settle down without any unseemly strengthening as many short-term investors re-entered the market on the assumption that no major correction had been sparked.

"When there's any minor disturbance, everyone wants to be the first one out (of short yen and other carry trade positions)," said Greg Anderson, currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank in Chicago. "And that's what we saw (after the Australian dollar declined). But it lasts three or four hours, and when (short-term investors) see that the short stops aren't extending, they get back in."

This somewhat orderly response, however, may have its limits. Speculative carry trade positions are growing, even bulging, according to the latest data that tracks positions by short-term investors, increasing the chances of a huge unwind.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's IMM data said that short yen positions in the week ended Jan. 16 were up at 99.5% of the record position for that currency, which was set in October 2006.

"I believe there's a good chance for a massive correction," Anderson said, adding it could happen Thursday or three years from now.

Others are less worried.

"While like others we recognize the large short yen position amassed by speculators ... we are less concerned about the implications of the speculative unwinding," said Marc Chandler, head of global foreign exchange at Brown Brothers Harriman.

He noted that there was a substantial and rather orderly reduction in speculative yen positioning in the three months after it reached its October highs, "and it did not prove de-stabilizing."

Zero Sum
Carry trade investments - borrowing low-yielding currency such as the Japanese yen, using it to invest in higher yielders such as the Australian dollar and pocketing the difference - often enable currency investors, small and large, to bank tidy profits.

Japan has a tiny 0.25% benchmark interest rate while Australia's central bank has set a generous 6.25% rate, meaning such trades automatically put investors 6% ahead.

But what if the yen gains 6% over a year, or the Australian dollars drops 6%? Or if the yen simply gains 3% at the same time the Australian dollar loses 3%?

Suddenly, these investments essentially turn into a zero sum game. And if those percentage declines or gains are even higher, investors could book substantial losses.

It's no surprise, then, that when Australia's government Wednesday announced an unexpected drop in the consumer price index that sank the Australian dollar nearly one U.S. cent, many investors raced for the doors.

But the rush for the exits was indeed short-lived, and analysts said the yen's gains Wednesday were even healthy because it suggests a gradual correction.

Risk-Free Dollar?
Investors in dollar-based assets will be pleased that a major unwinding of the yen-funded carry trade by speculative investors may not hurt them much because the speculative community remains roughly flat on U.S. dollars.

Wednesday's trading session is a good example. The temporary unwinding after the Australian dollar and the report by Reuters on the G7 pushed the dollar down to Y120.90 from Y121.63 late Tuesday, less than one yen weaker. The euro suffered more, trading at Y156.54 from Y158.41 late Tuesday, nearly 2 yen weaker.

Also, speculative investors are not the only ones involved in the yen carry trade. Medium- and long-term investors, from central banks to pension funds to life insurers to macro fund managers, are also heavy on short yen positions. Even institutional investors in Japan are selling yen to buy Australian dollars and other high-yielding currencies, traders said, makingn greater the chances of a slow, more methodical correction.

"That short-yen positions are in such long-term investor hands may also suggest why this is not likely to be a repeat of the 1998 debacle," Chandler said.

He was referring to the enormous and rapid unwinding of the carry trade in October 1998, brought on by the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. The dollar plunged about 20 yen in five days, forcing the reversal of massive bets in fixed income and currency markets around the world.

ABN Amro's Anderson said he doubts a hedge fund collapse could be a catalyst for any such unwinding this time, but said geopolitics, perhaps related to Japan and North Korea, may provide a spark.

paris ds 20:23 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
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Syd 20:17 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
"We see the yen as being in "bubble territory," and at least 20% undervalued," Nystedt of Deutsche Bank said. "Moreover, we think that 2007 could be the year when a combination of a stronger Japanese economy, rates hikes by the BOJ, higher risk aversion triggering a carry trade unraveling, all would argue that we are getting close to a major adjustment in the yen."
Full article Futures Forum

Philadelphia Caba 20:14 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ reportedly (RTRS) sees risk of further rate hikes.

USA BAY 20:12 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Aud/Jpy, already under pressure after the earlier release of below f/c Austra...
Aud/Jpy, already under pressure after the earlier release of below f/c Australian Q4 CPI data, has been pushed to new lows amid macro fund exitting of carry trades, pressuring [AUD/USD] through Asian fund demand ahead of 0.78 to force a brief break below the figure. Amid potential Aud losses on the crosses to come - Aud/Nzd seen as vulnerable should the RBNZ retain its hawkish bias - and general Usd strength, stops in place under 0.7660 may come in for a test. Aud/Jpy will need watching closely in the Asian session as a failure of the normally reliable Asian fund into dips may signal more weakness to come. Note an advisor to Germany's Chancellor Merkel underlining concerns about the Jpy's weakness. Note also an Australian holiday on Friday, likely to result in liquidity beginning to dry up.

Cannes Oil man 20:09 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:47 GMT January 24, 2007

Of course no body is interested in a stonger 1983 $/Y was at 260...It has kept going down years to years...

Philadelphia Caba 20:02 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ unch

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:46 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:41 GMT //
I'm mostly interested how to define R&S levels and how to find them, how to use them as I have no clue unfortunatelly..
- - in my trading I mostly look at the sloping of MAs and MACD and Slow stochs but I don'thave a solid strategy so this is why I try to comment technical matters - to see how others interpret the price action..

USA BAY 19:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Why 0.6990? Thanks

Dallas GEP 19:41 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
YEP KAP, I think we will test 6550 support again. My intial TP is 6558 on entries at 6580 and 6595. 6580 support will have to be overcome first but that level is not as significant as 6550 level.

Philadelphia Caba 19:41 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
kiwi long order waiting at 6990 with tight stop if RBNZ will surprise..

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:29 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:22 GMT //

hello I think you posted your short EURGBP yest - since I am llso short 0.6585 - do you feel like commenting the techs?

I think I see dearish devergence on hourly as the Hist was making lower highs while the advance from 6535 till 66 and the Hist now broke under the 0 line while the signal crossed from top and the slow stochastics are crossed from top and heading down through the 80 OB line..

BEIRUT MK 19:25 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
close short eurusd from 1.3030 at 1.2955
try to short at 1.2912 or 1.2977 target 1.28

Dallas GEP 19:22 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
OK taking rest of usd/chf longs out here....eur/gbp shorts are still working

madrid mm 18:56 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
nothing is forever.....
the trick is timing and as we should all know
-timing is everything

PAR 18:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
As long as LDP stays in power .

Philadelphia Caba 18:52 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:47 GMT

PAR 18:47 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Yen can only be used as a funding currency. Occasionally a big bank scares some people but most of big banks profits are derived from yen funded hedge funds . Conclusion nobody is interested in a stronger yen .

USA BAY 18:36 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Macro funds reported to be exitting their Jpy carry trades against a broad spre...
Macro funds reported to be exitting their Jpy carry trades against a broad spread of currencies has pressured [USD/JPY] back below 121 and towards stops in place under 120.50. CTA and hedge fund accounts who were such aggressive Jpy buyers earlier in the day are likely to again be on the bid, with the high yielders, the Aud in particular after the below f/c Australian Q4 CPI release, seen as particularly vulnerable. A tech retracement target lies around 93.65, a breach here likely to add extra fuel. Appetites to sell Jpy strength has probably waned compared to earlier as the market will now be looking towards the Feb 9-10 G7 meeting to see if a strong statement against Jpy weakness is forthcoming.

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:27 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
by the way - I noticed today when I was looking on hourly charts that GBPJPY was the leader and the EURJPY was the lagging one - I just share a little insight I had -
the chart had the same set of 25/50 MAs, MACD and slow stochs and while the MAs had crossed on the GBPJPY the EURJPY were only sloping in the same direction and I thought they will follw the same pattern - - -
so this was like a real time lesson for me...

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:23 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
closed my EURJPY for a mere 65 pips around 157.02
also reversed to short EURGBP at 0.6585
reasons on hourly chart MACD signal crossed from top and the historigram broke under the 0 line and slow stochs crossed and heading lower // on 4h chart RSI 14 is also looking lower towards the 50 mid point...
any tech comments welcome..

USA BAY 18:19 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Middle Eastern sales in [CABLE] and east European central bank selling of...
Middle Eastern sales in [CABLE] and east European central bank selling of Gbp/Jpy amid a general cutting back of Jpy shorts have further undermined the Pound, already softer after the unexpectedly close, 5-4, decision by the MPC to raise rates in Jan. Note that expectations of another hike have merely been pushed out to Q2, with the MPC minutes still showing the Bank is concerned over wage claims, tight capacity and a greater ability of retailers to pass through price increases. That should eventually provide the Pound with some stability, but a long market may come in for some more squeezing in the short term. Eur/Gbp has tripped a round of stops above 0.66 suggesting potential towards a retracement target around 0.6620 while an initial target comes in around 236.30 in Gbp/Jpy. Bids are expected around 1.9630 in Cable.

USA BAY 18:02 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

HMmmmm, Hope you are right. Very happy to short it anyway. Thanks

madrid mm 17:59 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 17:48 GMT January 24, 2007
yes sir and their "friends" in many parts of the world !!!!


it reminds me the famous expression
don t do as i say , do......

GENEVA DS 17:58 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Only a guess.... strenght will come from the Merill Lynches , Morgan Stanleys and Goldman Saches etc.etc.etc. and ALLLLLLLL the other Hedge Fund Players , who obviously have the most huge short JPY Position ever... and do not forget... BOJ has 800 Billion USD in reserves..... but not ONE SINGLE JPY.... nor has the FED and nor has Swedish Central Bank and for you INFO SWISS NATIONAL BANK has only about 1 Percent of Reserves in JPY:::::::: UFFFFFFFF ....

USA BAY 17:55 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

150 then to 80....,

gbp/jpy THAT LOW. Is that a realistic target, where is the yen going to get its strength from definitely not BOJ???

GENEVA DS 17:53 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

how that it calculates.... USDJPY down to 50-60, then calculated the cable....

USa BAY 17:52 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS,

Thanks a lot. I will try to short at 238 if seen otherwise 237.9ish. thanks again. Gt/GL

GENEVA DS 17:51 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

My guess is that medium to long term... (longer than 1 week...hahaha) GBP JPY will go to 150 then to 80....

Mtl JP 17:50 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
if we'd been.. we wouldn't have... ROFL

Hong Kong Ahe 17:50 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 17:15 GMT - members in G7 are not to dictate the BOJ policy. It is not a compulsary for BOJ to act according unless in a signed communique. Other members only voiced out. Many times BOJ said "Yes siree" in the meeting of G7 but they still went by their own way after meetings. The good examples were in the 90s while BOJ wanted to protect YEN from appreciation. Later as a result not a member of G7 coming out to join the BOJ intervention in concertion.

GENEVA DS 17:49 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

I guess yes it is very much... SL should be put now at 238.65 about... but it should go very quick to 230 issh .... then probably much lower... but that is not part of this short term forum obviously

RIC fxq 17:48 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 17:42 GMT

won't be long before the old "middle eastern bank" seen on the bid circulated, will it? lol

madrid mm 17:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Kuwait May Abandon Dollar Peg to Protect its Economy (Update3)

By Will McSheehy

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Kuwait, the third-largest Arab oil producer, may abandon the dinar's peg against the dollar in favor of a basket of currencies to help minimize economic harm after the dollar declined.

``We might go to a basket for an interim period,'' Bader al-Humaidhi, Kuwait's finance minister, told reporters today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ``The dollar fell a lot against the euro last year, but if we'd been linked to a basket we wouldn't have suffered'' as much.

Al-Humaidhi declined to comment on which currencies might be in the basket. A switch from the dollar is being studied by Kuwait's central bank, he said. The Kuwaiti dinar rose to 0.28915 against the dollar as of 4 p.m. in London, from 0.28920 yesterday, according to Bloomberg data.

Dollar reserves are being replaced with euros by oil producers including the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. China, which has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, and Indonesia say they plan to increase euro reserves and Iran says it's boosting oil sales priced in euros.

Livingston nh 17:41 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
The G-7 is not as relevant since the introduction of the EUR and the rise of China --- EUR/JPY is too high for some EU folks but a lot of the funds into EUR are coming from China and other non-Japan Asia (and that's excess USD) and the yen is carry -- so it comes down to the Japanese who pretty much don't care about EU -- so where does the intervention come from? -- ECB wants to hike and BoJ doesn't so how much JPY would ECB need to buy?? -- the ECB is not BuBa

USA BAY 17:38 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS,

Is GBP/JPY still a short and if it is whats the targer please. Thanks

LKWD JJ 17:37 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
i was referring to cable that has seen 300 pips almost from high to low yesterday and today, and $y which has been ok.

Cannes Oil man 17:31 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:19 GMT January 24, 2007

Let your profit run, in a range market is hard...

We've been stuck between 1.2850--1.31 (to be broad) since start of year now..Hard to let any kind of profit run..
Only one i managed to let run is US/NOK , and it's a lucky hit, as my play was an oil bottom , but it went down cause of interest rates..

NY RP 17:27 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Talk of G-7 making the rounds. It was the G-7 that gave the green light dollar selling a few years back. It was something like "let the markets decide the dollar exchange rates" that gave traders two the thumbs up to sell dollars galore.
Talk about easy money. Its nice when there is a consistent theme. I am not saying they will give a green light, just merely looking at possibilities. Good luck.

LKWD JJ 17:19 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
the old saying of "let your profits run" isnt suppose to end with "away from you"!!! washed out nice pips in gbp as stops were set a bit wide.

Hong Kong Ahe 17:17 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 17:15 GMT - That is the main reason UK dont want to join ECB to leave GBP its independency.

AZUSA 4X-ed 17:15 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe - to use this justification is tantamount to suggesting that France has the right to dictate ECB policy.

RIC fxq 17:11 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Wednesday, January 24, 2007 11:43:00 AM

* 24 Jan 07: 16:41(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, GBP/USD Flows-USD doesn't uncover soveriegn bids vs EUR, squeezes GBP longs

USD is extending its broad based intraday advance, despite suffering vs JPY in the wake of the "sourced" comment on Reuters that G7 would put some sort of pressure on Japan. First, this is an old theme that comes up too often and should be considered an excuse rather than a reason for price action in JPY. While the market sees the sourced rumor as another reason to cover JPY, USD is touching some interesting levels. The key to the USD advance is the lack of sovereign bids on EUR/USD seen in front of technical support at 1.2950. USD's advance vs GBP is probably little more than an old fashion and relatively predictable squeeze on GBP holders who have been overly enthusiastic about buying putting GBP into their speculative positions. If EUR/USD breaches 1.2950, support is seen next at 1.2927. GBP/USD has yet to test support at 1.9635, but it did not miss by much. M.B.

Hong Kong Ahe 17:06 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 16:57 GMT - It is because Japan joined the G7. There is priviledge and obligation to be a member of G7.

RIC fxq 17:03 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 16:57 GMT

perhaps not but it is not uncommon for sovereign states to complain about financial/fiscal policies in other sovereign states if thos policies are believed to be detrimental to domestic objectives especially when trade imbalances exist.

AZUSA 4X-ed 16:57 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Neither EU nor US have the right to dictate or demand policy outcome from BoJ. To suggest that either party knows what's best for Japan or how their MoF should act is an insult!

Cannes Oil man 16:51 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
The attack is obviously coming from yen strength...A little clean out like 2 weeks ago, before going up again....

It was just too simple with people posting "Long 121.40 , so not missing the opportunity"...

Hong Kong Ahe 16:48 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:42 GMT - I like Geoko called those who love Euro as Europhilies. Phobes are those who hate or having repulsive tendancy or rejecting. ;)

RIC fxq 16:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 16:24 GM

excellent - "yenophobes", hadn't seen that one before.

KL KL 16:35 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
ok in long gbpusd 1.9669 sl 59...lets see...only quick and swift trade these days .....pointless to be long term if things can move like this gbp range

Syd 16:28 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AUD/NZD Flows - Kiwi nervous ahead of RBNZ OCR, given Aussie dive post CPI

Hong Kong Ahe 16:24 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Yenophobes in EURJPY are very scared now. Next line of defense is 155.60/70 GL n GT.

ldn jp 16:19 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 10:25 GMT January 24, 2007
Are you still long gbp/usd ?...thanks

Philadelphia Caba 16:19 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
sold usd/cad at 1.1830, s/l 1.1885, t/p sub 1.16

madrid mm 16:04 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
yeahhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaa what a ride ...Like russian mountains !!!! Davos Meeting could be fun !!!

Mumbai NS 15:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
BOE Minutes 5-4 vote pattern is showing its effect now 1.9660 brk culd trigger more losses for the pound. gl gt

RIC fxq 15:29 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Wednesday, January 24, 2007 10:21:00 AM

* 24 Jan 07: 15:21(LDN) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - lashings of French 'source?'

Reuters getting in on the 'source' story act, telling us that Europe is to seek a stronger message on the 'weak' JPY at the next G7 meeting. We expect that any such approach will be doomed to failure, though we would be willing to put a reasonable amount of the family silver on the 'source' being French! PB

Philadelphia Caba 15:23 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Franc Is Going Against Sound Economic Fundamentals - Roth

Philadelphia Caba 15:21 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Reuters 'source' headline saying Europe to seek stronger G7 message that yen too weak, should reflect econom. fund..

London TE 15:19 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Any news on jpy?

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:18 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:13 GMT //
bc's post is on GVI..

HK Kevin 15:18 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Another bomb in YEn cross carry trade?

hk ab 15:17 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
anyone watching e/j?

GENEVA DS 15:13 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

where is this post???

hk ab 15:13 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
gecko, you mentioned that China will not load up the gold at triple top.... Do you mean that they will only wait for those 600 to long?

hk ab 15:11 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
who removed bc's post?

Cali mmm 15:07 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Oilman. I guess the risk right now is trying to figure out the entry point. TKS.

LKWD JJ 15:07 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 11:05 GMT January 24, 2007

this should be etched in stone!!!

GENEVA DS 15:07 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA Kprikorn

Good question.... time frame not always the same ... 1 minute to 1 month... I just fear that today the price action shows us a reversal and we need good balls... could be the trade of next 10 days... as good as stgjpy rose from 230 to 240 in 10 days it can fall from 240 to 230 in 2 DAYS... stops have to be put anyhow... but european currencies will collapse under their own weight.... eur gbp chf.... etc etc... and something else has to be bought, and not everything will go into out friend USD but lots in JPY !!!!!! No central bank has JPY reserves but everybody has plenty ot EUR,GBP and USD and GOLD (?)..... good trades my friend

Cannes Oil man 15:02 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
mmm , i still have the same targets even though last night data seems to have triggered a domino on the OZI.

8050 is my target...But so far it's not finding a bottom..Pulled by AUD/JPY too..Don't think we're too far from it right now..7790//7800->8050.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:01 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:48 GMT //
hello, may I ask what is your typical trading time frame?
and possibly main tech indicators of use?

Cali mmm 14:58 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, what is your short term target for AUD/USD ? Thank you.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:53 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
no - I have short EUR/JPY at 157.56 and 85 (averaged ..)
and long EUR/GBP 0.6601

I was shorting GBPJPY and NZDJPY last 2 days but leverage was too big and I lost the account just before these massive reversals.... pity that UI was right on direction but too early in the trades... or maybe undercapitalised...

GENEVA DS 14:48 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA Kaprikorn

the right deal.... I guess if you can give your self a stop around 23965... you should then cover around 23500 tomorrow... risk reward 3 to 1 excellent..

Cannes Oil man 14:46 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:32 GMT January 24, 2007
BTW range finder low for gbp$ = 1.9664...

Bought 1.9676 stops 40.

san miniato ab 14:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:34 GMT January 24, 2007
u r short gbp yen at 238,69 at the end rite ?

Cannes Oil man 14:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Looks ok , ab..

I m long myself, guess lots of stops were done..Should be near the end here..

It's also safe to long gbp here stops 40...TP 1.9999 again.

hk ab 14:43 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
nt, oilman, is it still safe to long aud here?

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:34 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
currently sold EUR/JPY at 157.56 and bought5 EUR/GBP at 0.6601 for a little continuation of the short term trend at the moment
based on MACD and slow stochastics on hourly charts - all point to the extremes which ATM I read as strength in the current direction... comments are welcome!

Bahrain BAH1 14:32 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 14:18 GMT January 24, 2007
Norway raised rates to 3.75 from 3.5. Too small to have impact .

Hi....EURNOK down from 8.33 to 8.25

PAR 14:18 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Norway raised rates to 3.75 from 3.5. Too small to have impact .

Philadelphia Caba 13:55 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Despite disappointment in lack of another rate rise, yield differentials remain attractive and have attracted more issuance. LBBW issued AUD100 mln Sept 2010 bonds this morning via TD, sporting a 6.50% coupon. (ifr report)

Dallas GEP 13:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Have some short eur/gbp working and usd/chf longs as well from earlier. target now 6558 on e/gbp and 1.2520 on usd/chf Out for now

PAR 13:44 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
SNB s Roth is a typical " barking dog " .

Philadelphia Caba 13:11 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
re SNB's Roth:
Newswires quote the central bank head as claiming "the SNB will hike rates if Swiss price stability is in danger", however, the Chairman went on to say "but at the moment we have quite a comfortable situation"....

GENEVA DS 12:58 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

interesting comment.... comes right at that moment when the whole planet is short swissy... (and not to speak about short jpy...) Blow off is OVER in these crosses.... eventually interesting times ahead... BUT first EURUSD has to crack 12870 double bottom, then fun could start.... eurjpy and eurchf.... ufff...... in GBPCHF most brokers in London have that one on the best selling list for this year with targets at 25500 on wards.... may be, but if we crack 2.4450 then we could make a little uturn to 2.3500 again... good trades...

Philadelphia Caba 12:52 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
SNB Roth:
-will hike rates if swiss price stability in danger
-looking carefully at swiss franc exchange rate

RIC fxq 12:41 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

11822/11776 thus far

Hong Kong Qindex 12:41 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
When you see USD/JPY is trading below 121.22.

OTTAWA mjw 12:38 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
does anyone feel repatriation is coming into play today????

Hong Kong Qindex 12:34 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : It will try to find support around [1.1750].

Madrid mm 12:32 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
OTTAWA mjw 12:22 GMT January 24, 2007

updated : Wed, 24 Jan 2007 00:45:18 GMT +0100

R3 = 1.1909
R2 = 1.188
R1 = 1.1846
Pivot = 1.1817
S1 = 1.1783
S2 = 1.1754
S3 = 1.172

H = 1.1851
L = 1.1788
C = 1.1812

Athens MK 12:27 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$ intraday: If bias intraday is still to go down then a possible buy would be at 1.9680-85. Stop 1.9593 TP: 1.9943

Athens MK 12:23 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
What an interesting week...

GBP/$: Since 1.9868 was taken out we were looking to reverse any open positions for a buy bias. We were looking for a retracement to 1.9773 and max 1.9666 before run back up towards main target of 1.9943.

First target: 1.9943
Second target: 1.9985
Third target: If 2.0 is taken out then let run and reevaluate
Stoploss: 1.9593

Remember to play the daily ranges for your entries to maximize your r/r's and it really helps if your playing temporary against the trend to save on potential losses...
Athens MK 12:46 GMT January 23, 2007
ldn jp 11:49 GMT January 23, 2007

Sorry jp I just saw your message at 11.49

The answer is if it touches then it have a 95% chance of it going at least another 100 pips. 60% chance it will go an additional 300+ pips beyond that... There is a chance it could retrace from this level before making a new attempt to hit 2.0 but you will have to monitor when to get in carefully...

So plan your trades carefully...

OTTAWA mjw 12:22 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have price ranges for $/cad thx...

Dallas GEP 12:11 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
I was long usd/chf

NYC 12:08 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GEP, were you long chf (shoirt dollars) or long usd/chf?

Dallas GEP 12:06 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
closing HALF of my chf longs HERE, rest have stop at breakeven, target still 1.2530 area

ABHA FXS 11:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
This week seems to be the hardest week for dollar, either to break the down trend and recover or continue its down trend which I favor this scenario ….
We have seen the starting of new year 2007 by good recovery which it could be justified as taking profits or repositioning for the long year of 2007….

In my view, the coming week is going to be hard for dollar and we may experience a massive move in the currencies , commodities and future markets

This is some of my view on main currencies:

1. pound may test 1.9610 or above this area and start to move and attempt to break 2.000 historical resistance

2. Euro may test 1.2890 or above and start to shoot all the way up and attempt to break the current high at 1.3360.

3. Frank may test its current high at 1.2520 or lower and fall sharply al the way down to below 1.1880.

4. Yen may test 119.90 or above before start to take off to 125 or above..

This is my personal view it may be right or wrong

I would like to advice you not to attempt short Eur or GBP in the coming wave


Como Perrie 11:52 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
on previous to clarify

for short term am considering a period of coupla days to a week or two.

Como Perrie 11:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
sry manchester am not here so ofteen. dunno short term about gold by thumb above 660/65 think no one stops the beast on higher.. levels around 650 and some are very likely short term but then It might deep back again too as well...

as said earlier critical here.. the big guys into already from late last year and dunno what they will do at the forementioned levels. Bank of Russia also noted as an heavy gold buyer into their reserves last month or two.

PAR 11:31 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Japans verbal govenment intervention is backed up by their subsidiuary the BOJ and that seems to make a difference . Lol.

warsaw TOMi 10:58 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
unbooked profits? good old cable game, had couple of hundreds wiped out and turned in loss within minutes many times.. using trailing stops and enter again , always book now..


manchester 10:52 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
thanks for your comments perrie. what resistance level are you seeing. yesterday i waiting for a break of 645.50 which happended but didnt push on from there. long dollar not helping at the moment

Gen dk 10:51 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 10:46 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
manchester 10:42 GMT January 24, 2007

critical here. most big us metal investment desks as wachovia and the like have been printing their reports by end last year targeting 650 as the toppish of the year. think those fund types are getting It wrong as they did with stocks mathematical evaluation, this as mathematics are an abstract from the many realities constatly changing onto markets.

to me if growth persits on global markets, even with a slowing in US there gold might print 700 very easily, but the game is though and risky with metals ..take care

Hong Kong Ahe 10:44 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:54 GMT January 24, 2007
Verbal intervention by Japanese economy minister managed to weaken the yen again .

That is the worst tactic because yenphobes will not trust yen be really weak. They will stop to add short in carry trade and equate all the on-hand shorts of yen in order to prevent other yenphobes change to yenphilies at any unexpected moment.

Gen dk 10:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manchester 10:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have an opinion on gold, im looking for a break upwards but still seems to be trading within its tight range

Como Perrie 10:38 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:33 GMT January 24, 2007

Interesting tks.

Me considering that printed on the call of central banks in help to stabilize the thing called dollar, as growth there will sink more than in other countries due excess capacity invested in war - and the debt connected of which part has still to be booked...but am not for a dollar rapid sink, think It will be managed but loosing points every squeeze.

As a conseguence am cautiously (in and out) working the 2 and higher on cable, no one can stop It even gods of sort - maybe by mid february maybe tomorrow dunno - Ill just follow

Syd 10:33 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Sterling Test Of USD2 Off The Cards -Bear
Bear Stearns says a test of $2.00 is off the cards for now, arguing that the narrow split between the MPC's hawks and doves and the more conciliatory comments on inflation overnight from BoE governor King tends to suggest that 5.50% could be a probable peak for UK rates. This should be positive for UK interest rate and credit markets and stocks, while taking upward pressure off the pound says Bear.

Cannes Oil man 10:33 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Yesterday a trader lost 218 million on gbp$ , let us see what happens guess is the guys are going to be a bit more careful....(see gvi for info)..

Cannes Oil man 10:31 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
unbooked profits is always unbooked eh..

Cannes Oil man 10:30 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 09:35 GMT January 24, 2007
bought gbp$ 1.9709
bought ozi 21.
bought $/Y 120.98 (again).


Also p'ssed 130 pips of ozi profit from last week, just took 40 pips ....But long again now..

Auckland trotter 10:26 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
The level I am looking at for the EUR/USD is around 1.2988 - ref my previous posts.

It is I4 on the daily pivots, and makes interesting levels on various time charts.

I have conflicting information from the various time charts, so as I said, it is a case of take the pips where you see them - or play safe with no trade.

Como Perrie 10:26 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
What da man dreams of

following is from Reuters main page on yesterdays speech

-- Double the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's capacity to 1.5 billion barrels by 2027

-- Tax deduction of $15,000 for families and $7,500 for individuals who get private health insurance either on their own or from employers in an effort to reduce the number of Americans without health insurance, currently about 47 million.

-- Renew call for immigration reform that would combine measures to secure borders against illegal crossings and provide a guest worker program for foreign workers willing to work in jobs that Americans have not taken

-- Increase the size of the Army and Marine Corps by 65,000 soldiers and 27,000 Marines over the next five years.

following is from recent Gartman letter

Suppose the U.S. military adventure in Iraq, conceived in lies, had to be financed with war taxes on current voters instead of borrowing from foreigners, borrowing that will be repaid by future generations who will have had no say in the debt incurred in their name. Without infinite money, money borrowed against the future, the adventure in Iraq would not have been undertaken. The tens of thousands of people killed in that adventure and its consequences would still be alive, including many doctors and medical researchers. The efforts of the thousands of medical people who care for the war's maimed and wounded could be diverted to cancer research or something else. An incalculable amount of the world's capital, sunk in the war, would remain available for constructive purposes.

Cannes Oil man 10:25 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Well a good fight last night...However market is as reasonable as an eight year kid in a candy store...

See 1.3120 e$ , 1.9890 GBP$ today....With of course the carries doing their usual job..

AZUSA 4X-ed 10:14 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Sense of market direction will come from the 'hanging man/men' as M. King failed to provide specific guidance.

Auckland trotter 10:12 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
General pressure for the EUR/USD I have is to 1.3025, could be more.

See a correction at the moment on the 5min 12hr chart - RSI (5) over bought and the price has hit the SMA (89)

Como Perrie 10:04 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:54 GMT January 24, 2007

yeap have to consider Jap desks as a bunch of soldiers acting all togheter in good and bad faith, that's the reason It works perfectly and also the reason when It drops a crater opens somewhere on global markets.

Madrid mm 10:03 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
As they say in the market -

" this is all over the shop !!! "

PAR 09:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Verbal intervention by Japanese economy minister managed to weaken the yen again .

Madrid mm 09:53 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
fwiw -
- Federal Open Market Committee's Jan 31, 2007
- G7 meeting on Feb 9-10, 2007
- BoJ policy makers next vote on rates on Feb 21, 2007

Well , well, well this jpy is like a wild stallion this am...8)

Como Perrie 09:46 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Yen bullisheness earlier - this even if some speculate on semi-books and thinking they will hold over February, but central banks are having trouble managing It lately as there were huge billions positioned from earlier and the bigger sizes are still there - even the Argentina's central bank was being called to help yesterday, and you know what for global markets Argentina counts for. All in all at least gets interesting..

Madrid mm 09:44 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
-World Economic Forum in Davos, a Swiss alpine town
-Starts today
-Five days of conferences
-More than 2,400 global political, economic and cultural leaders, including 800 top CEOs

expect the unexpected .....

Auckland trotter 09:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
The EUR/USD has hit the M2 daily pivot with the opening of the UK market. Short term indicators are over sold.

Interesting daily pivot at 1.2999, which corresponds to my previous postings this week - and my expectation yesterday of a retraction to correct the short term charts.

Looking at buy to 1.3000 for now and possible more - we shall see.

Just taking pips where I see them at the moment.

Como Perrie 09:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
UsdJpy is the wild card the is for the most used as the queen of carry trades. This will be difficult to get into next month. I do see a risk factor of prices printing either ways, by thumb in february we might see 126 or 114 very easily and fastly. Me just small minimal bullishness there established lately on higher spikes - will stay yet some very thiny there-

Como Perrie 09:38 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
There were Central banks as from South America to Asia and Europe supporting the Usd yesterday, as a conseguence the Jpy is strenghtening ahead of the BOJ next meeting withing a stop hunting mode. Risks were very high yesterday.

btw UK GDP came out better than expeted, good they brought it back to 1.97 else would have been 2. this morning without the intervention.

san miniato ab 09:37 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
very good numbers from uk +0,8 q/q gdp (exp + 0,7%) and + 3,0% y/y (exp + 2,9%) but bad minutes as 5/4 vote split for surprise hike

warsaw TOMi 09:34 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
longed cable 9705 stop 9680

Geneva hdg 09:29 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B.

You seem to be always a couple of days ahead of this market. Superb call on the Aussie have you taken back your shorts ??

Would appreciate any comment please ...

Gen dk 09:25 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manchester 09:24 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
thanks omil / madrid.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:22 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Short term view usd/jpy: the key support 120.80-90 is under attack as the indicators unwind from the O/B levels but this pair remains a buy on failed dips until the main support (118.15-25) is broken. Support now lies on 120.20-30, 119.25-35, 118.80-90 and a sell signal on the 119.60-70 area (for the pip raiders) for now IMHO. Peace and GT

Syd 09:15 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
US Treasury Demand "Strong And Stable"

Asian central banks may not be diversifying their foreign exchange reserves out of US Treasuries as many think they are. A study by Unicredit, tracking demand at government auctions over the last few years, shows that if anything the bid-to-cover ratio is now higher for US Treasuries than for euro-zone bonds for the first time. "Demand for US Treasuries is strong and stable," the bank concludes.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:15 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd pair: A small ray of hope for the bulls but they cannot convert and now the key support 2970-80 is being tested. Next key support is 2940-50 and a sell signal around the 2920-30 area for now. We are still in a range and until the 2860-70 area is taken out the market is bound to it. That does not mean the nibble and quick cannot profit from the sell signal as much as the buy signal from yesterday IMHO. Peace and GT

GENEVA DS 09:14 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Thanks for quick reply... good trades..

Madrid mm 09:13 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
R3 = 122.54
R2 = 122.14
R1 = 121.91
Pivot = 121.51
S1 = 121.28
S2 = 120.88
S3 = 120.65

@ GMT +1h00

manchester 09:10 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
usd/yen - waiting to go long again but its broken 12090. whats the next support level?

Syd 09:04 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 08:52 GMT aus/yen a different matter still have memories of that huge yen rally wouldnt like to get in the way of that
noticed this on Futures Forum also courtesy of GD

Vienna GD 08:41 GMT January 24, 2007
Fukuis warning on carry trades tonight, the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos and the forthcoming G7 meeting ... events not to ignore, nice wakeup calls!

Syd 08:57 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 08:52 thks shorted this morning after cpi and out now, looking for 7760-80 for a quick recovery if seen , as getting a bit oversold, cant see another rate hike if we can keep oil around these levels .

Como Perrie 08:56 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Maybe some said It already, dunno as am not following the many opinions world. Me very thiny after some cuts from yesterday closing - all was too strange and the yen made the suprise after Fuckui speech yesterday at 4 or 5 am Tokyo time, was guessing that was a false trick as imo he was sleeping at that time, but not this time. JGBs baraley moving beneath key resitance in Japan today.

Bloomberg News Service
Wednesday, January 24, 2007

HONG KONG -- The Hong Kong dollar's drop to the lowest since 1991 was "stage-managed" to deter speculators from betting the city's 23-year old link to the U.S. dollar will end, said Jonathan Anderson, UBS AG's chief Asia economist.

GENEVA DS 08:52 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Where is your target on AUDUSD AND AUDJPY? You did an excellent job in warning us all about AUD:::: I suffered a little yesterday with short Aussie... now better.... feel personally that AUD could tank easily back to 76 area and audjpy 88 or lower ,, very fast.... gbpjpy 230...? your thoughts?

Hong Kong Qindex 08:51 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market is under pressure when it is trading below (1.2999).

Hong Kong Qindex 08:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly are as follow :- [0.9220]* - 0.7258 - 0.7277 - 0.7297 - 0.9335* // 0.9393

Syd 08:44 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
FX NOW! AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Flows - Aussie braces 4 more post CPI selloff +JPY carry unwinding?

Syd 08:41 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
KRW May Fall On JPY Carry Unwinding - UBS
Significant KRW depreciation likely if JPY carry trade unwinding occurs without current account surpluses, says UBS; forecasts deficit of 0.3% of GDP in 2007 vs surplus of 2.5% in 2005; "until then, watch for any signs of recovery in equity flows to lend support to the KRW." Notes Korean corporations, investors heavily leveraged on cheap JPY loans to fund domestic investments.

Gen dk 08:31 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 08:24 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
ninja shaking in the pants now moving sl lower....he can cheat too like these sharks...lets see....must remember trend is friend...this is gbpusd uptrend...LOL

Madrid mm 08:23 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
ud/yen R3 gmt 01h00 @ 12065......

Hong Kong Qindex 08:20 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards [236.53]*

van Gecko 08:20 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Euroophiles who had missed the 1.30 boat earlier may get another chance to buy the Euroo @1.2870 "double bottom" soon..

Hong Kong Qindex 08:19 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Once the market can anchor itself at 238.34, the odds are against any long position for the remaining period of this month.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:15 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is targeting 156.62.

KL KL 08:14 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe

Thks.....but I think my pips loss is so insignificant to these shark....I am waiting for a nice 25-40 pips bounce anytime now...these shark will have to cover sooner or later when BOE minutes are released....if hawkish the bounce can be 50-150....IMHO...GL GT

Madrid mm 08:14 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
KL KL 07:56 GMT January 24, 2007

a sabre ? You might need a heavy vehicle !!!! LOL !!!!

Madrid mm 08:12 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
KL KL 07:56 GMT January 24, 2007

Mental toughness is one of the most important trait of a Ninja , isn't it ? Don t fight the trend fwiw 8-)
g/l n g/t

Hong Kong Ahe 08:09 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
KL KL 07:54 GMT - Dont long GBPUSD if GBPJPY is unwinding as u dont know how many stop-lost big figure are being attacked. Wait till 3hrs later. Good luck and Good trade.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:07 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD is helping EUR/JPY to tackle 157.00

AZUSA 4X-ed 08:02 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Most Yen crosses are about to implode and the brave ninjas are calling for short yen? Meanwhile GBP acting as if GDP will be like the temperatures in NY (sub-zero)... maybe a 0.6 is in the cards after all?

Hong Kong Qindex 07:58 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD is helping GBP/JPY to tackle GBP/JPY at 238.34.

KL KL 07:56 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
ok long 1.9738 sl 28 ...all in deal ...seems like ninja the only one problem ..have sabre tonight

KL KL 07:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
99% sure and worst case only 15 pips get eaten.......EATEN....long again lower

KL KL 07:52 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

the gbpusd long train about to leave soon.....last call all abord + another long catching falling knife sl near 1.9740...indiscipline ninja but 99 % sure

Hong Kong Qindex 07:51 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are 2.3128 - [2.3277]* - 2.3427.

Madrid mm 07:49 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
we might get some sparks @ 9h30 gmt with United Kingdom
-Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
-Bank of England Minutes
-Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

KL KL 07:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
ok here is the deal every 2 minutes I will keep adding gbpusd long as long as it does not go below the previous 2 minute different trading style...lets see sl is near 1.9750.....Today Ninja will Fight Big time with Hedgies, Funds ,,Banks...the whole world...No fear in ninja today...l..relentless attack till submission

Madrid mm 07:44 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Strong Cross/JPY selling - unwinding of the popular JPY carry trades going through as we move into Europe, seen triggered by AUD/JPY selloff starting today after the surprise fall in Australia Q4 CPI by -0.1%q/q - triggering expectations that RBA will pause and keep Cash Rate at 6.25% for this year.

USD/JPY stoploss hit below 120.90, down sharply from morning highs of 121.78 as JPY rallies broadly across the board with market seen very short JPY at IMM and vs Crosses.

EUR/JPY stoploss hit below 158.00/ 157.50 after a very volatile section that saw EUR/JPY hitting new all time highs of 158.59, after taking out the 158.50 triggers, only to be sold down to 157.33 longs as funds liquidate Cross/JPY on JPY carry trades unwinding.

More stoploss on break of 157.00 as funds are still seen very long Cross/JPY.

Aussie the big mover today, as "Everyone" is selling Aussie against "Everything" after the fall in Q4 CPI of -0.1% raise speculation that RBA will pause and Cash Rate will peak at 6.25%.

AUD/USD dived from 0.7925, falling >1 cts to 1-week lows of 0.7820, while AUD/JPY - a favourite JPY carry trade - dived from 10-yr highs 96.45 to 94.55, huge stops gut below 95.00, with AUD/JPY unwinding likely to spill into unwinding of other carry trades like GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY as funds take profits at still handsome levels.
AUD supported by Asian CBs, sovereign bids at lows, but stops 0.7790.

EUR/ AUD rallied 2 big fig from 1.6450 to 1.6645, while AUD/NZD dived to 2-wk lows 1.1150-60 fm 1.1280-90, eye RBNZ OCR tom, if RBNZ less hawkish - Kiwi to be sold.

NZD/USD weighed by NZD/JPY selling, falling from 85.40-50 to 84.20-25, and while Kiwi hit day lows of 0.6970 form morning highs of 0.7019.

EUR/USD lower at 1.3013-16 on back of EUR/JPY sales, stoploss below 1.3000 handle.

EUR / CHF hit 8-yr highs 1.6210, as 1.6200 opt taken out, eye any CHF, JPY comments out of Davos/ WEF. .

GBP eye BoE MPC vote, Q4 GDP. NOK see Norges decision., SEK eye Riksbank comments.

Nikkei +98pts at 17,507 9-half mth closing high. JGBs off highs, with mkt still debating on BoJ. 10-yr +0.005% 1.655%.

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 120.83/121.78 EUR/USD 1.3016/1.3036, GBP/USD 1.9757/1.9831, USD/CHF 1.2419/1.2439, AUD/USD 0.7819/0.7928, NZD/USD 0.6967/0.7019.

dc CB 07:41 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
I'm sorry BUT...where is Noody Girl when you need her?

dc CB 07:40 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 07:07 GMT January 24, 2007

Calls...march CME

KL KL 07:39 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
i meant 1,9759....and more 1.9761 long gbpusd

KL KL 07:36 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
added more 1.9659 long gbpusd...come and join nowwww!!!

KL KL 07:31 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
ok time for some ninja tricks...Long gbpusd 1.9761 sl 51

What a retracement ....shocking from 1.9918

Hong Kong Qindex 07:16 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market will try to tackle 238.34.

canmore cyclops 07:15 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:07 GMT January 24, 2007
Have an order to short eur/gbp at 6580. I closed my longs too early but shorts should be in play from this level

Sorry none of my concern GEP, but I think shorting eur/gbp is a little dangerous here. I know this is more in your area than mine, but for my model, this pair is just about to enter a buy for me ( a few days, meaning 40 to 80 or more pips) and i am as usuall late to the party but I really want it above .6590 to prove it, I believe you had it right the first time. several hours ahead of me. Just my 2 cents. good luck sir

Hong Kong Ahe 07:07 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 07:04 GMT But they are cunning as ninjas and well covered with smokes to gain their biggest profits. Last time shanghai bc has warned us in Early Jan2007.

dc CB 07:04 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 07:00 GMT January 24, 2007
The problem is you dont know when the Japanese repatriates the money

don't they regularly start to do that around this time of year,
Like a clock?

Syd 07:04 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Flows - PM Howard see good news on RBA rates; AUD1bln
Aud continues to come under pressure , having hit lows of 78.30 talk of US houses , Hedge Funds , selling huge talks range from Aud500ml to Aud 1-2yds

Madrid mm 07:03 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
mal semiji 05:59 GMT January 24, 2007 @ gmt +1

R3 = 1.3182 R3 = 1.1909
R2 = 1.3113 R2 = 1.188
R1 = 1.3067 R1 = 1.1846
Pivot = 1.2998 Pivot = 1.1817
S1 = 1.2952 S1 = 1.1783
S2 = 1.2883 S2 = 1.1754
S3 = 1.2837 S3 = 1.172
H = 1.3044 H = 1.1851
L = 1.2929 L = 1.1788
C = 1.3021 C = 1.1812

Hong Kong Qindex 07:03 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT January 23, 2007
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are as follow :- [157.03]* - 157.51 - 157.75 - 157.99 - 158.47* // 159.18

Hong Kong Qindex 14:19 GMT January 23, 2007
AUD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The market has a potential to vibrate around [95.99] with an expected magnitude of 95.32 - 96.67. The current expected trading ranges are 95.32 - 95.55 - [95.99]* - 96.44 - 96.67

van Gecko 07:02 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
the limited window of opportunity to SOB Euroo & GBP may be closing soon..

"14:02 GMT January 23, 2007
euroophiles hoping to regain 1.30 should watch euroo/Jap like a hawk here.. the cross must close above 1.58 or risk another multi-fig dive for both.."

Hong Kong Ahe 07:00 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 14:36 GMT January 23, 2007
People sell Jpy and buy all other currencies. The problem is you dont know when the Japanese repatriates the money. The risk is there at any moment and blood is shed. Grrr...
The EURJPY falling speed in the last 10 min is so scaring. If it holds around 157.30, EURUSD may go back to 1.2920/30 in a lag behind running to catch up. Good luck and Good trades.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:00 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Watch the level 121.22.

Madrid mm 07:00 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

a case of falling knife this aud/usd at the moment.... 8-)

Bahrain BAH1 06:59 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Good morning frnds.....sharks hitting the GBP crosses.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:58 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/AUD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are as follow :- 2.4880 // 2.5086* - 2.5223 - 2.5292 - 2.5361 - [2.5498]*

Austin gw 06:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, have sent you email.

Syd 06:40 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Australian Dollar Plunges As CPI Removes Rate Hike Risk

The Australian dollar was dumped in Asian trading Wednesday after a surprise fall in consumer prices in the fourth quarter removed the threat of an imminent rise in interest rates.

The Aussie dollar fell by close to 1 U.S. cent through the session after the fourth quarter consumer price index fell 0.1%, the first fall in prices since early 1999. Markets were looking for a 0.2% rise.

Currency and bond traders immediately concluded the data has taken the heat out of speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise rates in early February.

At 0530 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$0.7837, down from US$0.7887 late Tuesday. Ahead of the CPI data at 0030 GMT, it was trading at US$0.7920. Against the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar was trading at Y95.255, down from Y95.985 Tuesday.

The outlook is now for a long period of steady rates, with the RBA remaining vigilant for any uptick in inflation, economists said.

In year-on-year terms, inflation slowed to 3.3% from 3.9% in the third quarter, the slowest pace of price increase since the start of 2006.

Ahead of the CPI, markets were warming to the idea that the RBA would hike rates at its first policy meeting for 2007 on Feb. 6.

Debt market pricing put the probability at close to 40%. That number slipped to 3% soon after the CPI.

Westpac currency strategist Robert Rennie said the Australian dollar likely has further to fall.

Westpac was one of the first banks to forecast a February rate hike, but it removed that expectation during the day.

"We feel there is still further to go on the downside, with the high US$0.7700s seen as the next area of support," Rennie said.

Government bond prices rallied sharply after the data, extending the rally after the RBA published its own estimates of core inflation.

The RBA put core inflation, which attempts to strip out volatile price movements, at 0.5% in the fourth quarter and by 3.0% on year.

While the RBA targets headline inflation between 2% and 3%, core inflation is more critical to the central bank's interest rate deliberations.

Economists said the pace of increase in core prices would allow the RBA to keep rates on hold for now.

The official cash rate has been raised 8 times since May 2001 and now stands at 6.25%.

But it is also too soon to suggest the peak in rates has been reached, they said.

It is only safe to argue that rates are on hold for now, said Stephen Koukoulas, chief strategist at TD Securities.

"There is little doubt that the inflation data will allow the RBA time to assess future inflation pressures in the light of developments in the global economy, housing, the labor market, credit growth and consumer spending," he said.

John Kyriakopoulos, senior currency strategist at the National Australia Bank said the CPI had put a sizable dent in the "yield story" that has supported the Aussie dollar for much of January.

The closely watched Australia/U.S. 2-year bond spread narrowed by 15 basis points through the session eroding the appeal of the Aussie, he said. In late Asian trading Wednesday, the spread stood at 118 basis points, down from 133 on Tuesday.

NAB's fair value model for the Australian dollar now puts it at US$0.7570 to US$0.7780, so the Aussie could have further downside, Kyriakopoulos added.

The focus of traders is now likely to shift back to commodity prices which have been sharply weaker in recent weeks, he added.

Richard Grace, currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank agreed saying the Aussie dollar's fall has been substantial, but it may not be over.

"It is highly likely the Australian dollar will come under further downward pressure over the next few days to a week," he said.

If the Australian/U.S. 2-year bond spread continues to narrow and drops below 100 basis points, that could bring a fall in the Aussie dollar to below US$0.7625, he said.

But Grace is not expecting any further narrowing for now. That would require news of weak economic data in Australia or a more hawkish stance by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Neither seem likely just at the moment.

mal semiji 05:59 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
anyone know range for eur/usd and usd/cad ,, fro 24/01/2007,,tq

Cannes Oil man 05:31 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Another way to see it is just to straddle GBP$ for a year..

Might be much better than a simple one way shot , completly out of the trend.

But then , to each his own.


USA BAY 05:20 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia MIK,

Any technical and fundamental reason why gbp/usd should move 20 figures down. Thanks

Sofia mik 05:05 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
cable give a bonus fo long term traders. very good lvl for short& sleep for 20 figures for next 6-7months

Hong Kong nt 05:00 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AB -- GBP near 2.0 line and EUR at 1.30. Buy EUR/GBP on dips at 0.65 may work for a while...

Las Vegas DJS 04:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Cable/$ If you like money go long at 1.9831 and use a stop at 1.9790 and TP at 1.9900++

KL KL 04:50 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Don't be too ninja is ready to short again like this morning...come up a bit more....still trap in a flexible triangle....imho......happy to play the gold game st the moment

hk ab 04:44 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
nt, there are no more gold bears left in gvi.... check archive...

Syd 04:35 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Westpac Drops Aussie Feb Rate Hike Call
Westpac Bank drops call for Australian rate hike in February, now predicts rates on hold through 2007. Westpac had been forecasting 25bp hike after RBA's Feb. 6 meeting, adding to 3 rate hikes in 2006. But surprise negative CPI result for first quarterly fall in nearly 8 years prompts Westpac's call change; CPI fell 0.1% in 4Q vs market expectations of 0.2% rise.

Hong Kong nt 04:34 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Current drop of aussie may precede yen strength, a red light to yen bears...

Hong Kong nt 04:32 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
OILGOD -- follow to long some aussie at 7830...

Hong Kong nt 04:31 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD -- on weekly, 900-1000 pips bounce is a sell, previous bottom at 1.09..fwiw..

Hong Kong nt 04:27 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP -- bounce of this pair may imply funds moving from GBP to EUR which may help EURO to gain upside bias..fwiw..

Dallas GEP 03:07 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Have an order to short eur/gbp at 6580. I closed my longs too early but shorts should be in play from this level

Syd 03:02 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Canada's Dollar Poised for Extended Decline, Credit Suisse Says
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar may extend last year's decline as local investors flock to higher yielding U.S. assets, according to a research note today from Credit Suisse Group.

The Canadian currency has weakened 7.4 percent versus its U.S. counterpart since reaching a 28-year high May 31, and may slide another 5.8 percent by December, according to a team of currency strategists at Credit Suisse.

Dallas GEP 02:48 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
U r welcome BAY. THX Caba. That's the difficulty with this market because at the ends of the range even short term you don't have much time to react unfortuantely.

Syd 02:21 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Next RBA Rate Move Will Be Down - ComSec
Australian 4Q CPI is best inflation result in 8 years, will allow RBA to keep rates on hold in coming months, says Martin Arnold, equities economist at Commonwealth Securities; "we don't see interest rates going higher in the current cycle. The next move will be down." Says result provides householders with greater rate certainty which will be reflected in higher consumer spending, possible pickup in housing market in 2H07. "Consumers and investors will take a lot out of this. Any extra dollars will be spent rather than saved."

USA BAY 02:13 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   

Congrats GEP for the Ozi trade. I was too slow to react. Thanks for the reply. GT/GL

Syd 02:09 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
At a casual glance to even a novice technical analyst the Australian and New Zealand dollars appear very vulnerable to a sharp decline. The Aussie has been in an uptrend since March of last year and appears to be forming a head-and-shoulder peak. If it were to break below the neckline currently at .7750, the objective for the decline would become .7515, or a fall of over 2% from current levels. The Kiwi is relatively weaker and since the dramatic decline in early January it has only been able to struggle higher and could be in the process of forming a bear flag. If it closes below the relatively close level at .6915 then it will have a downside objective of .6650.
One of the early lessons in technical analysis is that a formation doesn't exist until there is confirmation, as often the most obvious formations morph into something entirely different. Also it is unclear how long most technical formations take to develop, so we need to see significant weakness to turn negative on both currencies. The cycles are calling for weakness in these currencies during most of this week and if they continue sharply lower then the weakness will last into early next week before a medium term low is reached. A close below the close supports at AUD/USD - .7875 and NZD/USD - .6925 will signal they are headed lower and our targets are .7800 and .6855. If they prove that weak, this could be the start of a much more significant decline.

Syd 02:06 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Changes At Fed May Boost Bernanke's Role
News Chicago Fed's Moskow to step down effective Aug. 31 caps recent wave of retirements, and change afoot at top echelons has important implications for how Fed functions. Coming amid consideration of key changes in policy methodology, switch from old guard could mean Fed, already appearing ever closer to tying rate policy to changes in inflation, may speed that shift. Changes leave "Bernanke with more sway, since new members will be relatively quiet for a while," says RBS Greenwich's Stephen Stanley; next round of Fed leaders may be "compelled by their status as new kids on the block to demonstrate inflation fighting bona fide," imparting slightly more hawkish bent to policy, adds Financial Markets Center's Tom Schlesinger.

Cali mmm 02:05 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Regarding AUD/USD, what would you consider a good long entry point next (if at all) ? Any TP target also? TKS.

Syd 01:47 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Australia's PM Plans 0150 GMT Briefing

Philadelphia Caba 01:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:30 GMT
congrat. GEP, that was nice trade!
bought aussie at .7845 av. now

Syd 01:45 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD continues to plunge as markets reject idea that rates will rise in February; with Australia CPI falling 0.1% in 4Q, debt markets now put odds of February hike at just 3%, down from 38% before 0030 GMT CPI release. ABN AMRO FX strategist Greg Gibbs says huge shift in sentiment that has been underpinning AUD/USD suggests further losses possible; pair last at 0.7832, vs 0.7920 at 0030 GMT.

Syd 01:33 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Australian 4Q CPI Cools, Rates On Hold

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Inflation in Australia fell in the fourth quarter on the back of a large drop in fuel prices, a result that is likely to allow the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates on hold for now. The consumer price index fell 0.1% in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. It was the first quarterly fall in the CPI since the start of 1999 and compares with a foreccast rise of 0.2% by economists. Annual inflation slowed to 3.3% in the fourth quarter, its lowest level since the first quarter of 2006, and down from 3.9% in the third quarter. Ahead of the data, economists believed it was an even bet the central bank would hike rates soon after it meets for the first time in 2007 on Feb. 6. That scenario has now changed with economists content to forecast that rates will be left on hold for the foreseeable future. "We were calling rates on hold and we remain happy with that call," said Tony Pearson, senior economist at the ANZ Bank. "The RBA has to be happy with how inflation is now panning out," he added. Crucially, the RBA's own measures of core inflation were lower in the fourth quarter. The central bank estimates underlying inflation, which strips out volatility, rose by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, a result considered low enough to call off a rate hike next month. The Australian dollar plunged on the data from US$0.7920 to around US$0.7852 soon after the various inflation measures were issued. Government bond futures prices also lifted sharply as traders downgraded the risk of a further rate hike. Pricing in Australia's debt market now implies a 3% chance of a rate hike in February, down from 38% just before the data. The data will satisfy the RBA that three rate hikes in 2006 to the current level of 6.25% are putting the bite on the economy.

It will also come as a relief to Prime Minister John Howard's coalition government which was facing the prospect of an election in late 2007 against the backdrop of an increasingly hostile mortgage belt.
lower world oil prices and sharp drop in the cost of banana's has also helped to lower inflation.

Banana prices surged in mid-2006 after storms all but wiped out the 2006 crop. The scarcity drove prices high which fed into the broader CPI. Scott Haslem, chief economist at UBS, said the data suggests the RBA will leave rates on hold in February, but retain its bias to lift interest rates. "With no further acceleration in upstream price pressures,and some tentative signs of easing CPI pressures at the quarterly level...we see the RBA remain on hold at its February meeting," he said.

Dallas GEP 01:33 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Bay, The London session is normally the most active. Early Asia I would say is second busiest at times

Dallas GEP 01:30 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Can't be greedy here LOL. I will take the 7835 on the last half of the Aussie shorts

Philadelphia Caba 01:24 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
AUS ECON: Q4 Core CPI Measures Up 0.5%
Both the trimmed mean and weighted median measures of inflation, seen as the 'core' measures, rose 0.5% over the December quarter, down from 0.7% and 0.8%
respectively in September. These are good results, with the smallest change in each in a year or more. However, compared to a year earlier, both are still touching the top of the RBA's 2-3% inflation target zone--the weighted median was at 3.0%, the third straight quarter at or above 3%, while the trimmed mean was unchanged at 2.9%, its fastest pace in nearly four years. Market
expectations have been of the view that a rise of 0.7% or more in the core
measures would be required for a rate hike, but with a very tight labour market and the economy running up against capacity constraints in many areas, a rate
hike cannot be comprehensively ruled out in February. This economist for one still favours another move, though the central bank may prefer to wait until
December quarter wages data are released in mid-February ahead of the March
board meeting. ifr.

Syd 01:21 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Fin Min: Analysts Say No Basis For Rate Hike
Budget Should Aim To Keep CPI Low

USA BAY 01:09 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Just a silly question, based on the trading hours, which periods will be the most brisk and most volatile, meaning to make/loose money the most. Thanks

Cannes Oil man 01:08 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 00:52 GMT January 24, 2007
Jumped on 7856 ozi long;

Syd 01:05 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Market pricing for 25-bp rate hike at RBA's board meeting Feb. 6 has crashed after near 8-year low for Australian CPI in 4Q. Credit Suisse implied monetary policy index finds market now pricing 3% chance of rate hike next month, down sharply from 38% before CPI data. Australia's CPI down 0.1% in 4Q, first fall since 1Q 1999, for on-year growth of 3.3%, still outside RBA's target band of 2%-3%.

KL KL 01:05 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
with crude and drought...won't be long when CPI will be up the market positioning for future or past....AUDUSD is telling what it is worth Now...785. Don't forget retail sales were quite strong and credit debt rising....perhaps a suprise like BOE is still not out of the cards....Just trade ninja and lock in pips!!

Auckland peat 00:56 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
errr. looks like an opportu.....

Auckland peat 00:56 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
thats likes an opportunity to reload AUD ... those figures werent that bad or that below consensus?? whats up with that drop. I spose its enough to squash notion of a rate rise tho (not that it ever seemed likely to me)

Dallas GEP 00:54 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
closed half aussie shorts at 7860 rest are running with trailing stop at entry 7820 still is target

Syd 00:43 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI +3.0% On Yr In 4Q
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI +0.5% On Qtr In 4Q
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI +2.9% On Yr In 4Q
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI +0.5% On Qtr In 4Q

Syd 00:42 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Shane Oliver Amp Capital says aussie in a .68 to .80 range over the year with the lower range fair value

Syd 00:40 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Dow Jones technical analysis shows AUD/USD has negative bias on hourly chart with stochastic, MACD indicators bearish, suggesting further losses intraday; may test immediate support at 0.7869, any breach of which would target 0.7854.

Philadelphia Caba 00:35 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
[Dow Jones] RBC Capital Markets lifts forecasts for USD/JPY and EUR/JPY "significantly" on combination of rising Japan retail demand for overseas assets, waning institutional hedging, yen-carry trades; end-year USD/JPY target now 125 vs 110, EUR/JPY 166 vs 146. While JPY at multi-year lows on most G10 crosses after BOJ inaction on rates, longer-term JPY weakness more than just evolution of BOJ rate views; "even though we, like most forecasters, now expect the BOJ to hike rates in February and again in Q2, we no longer expect JPY to appreciate through the course of 2007." Short-JPY positioning much less extreme than it appears, considering surging liquidity over past 2 years, and not an obstacle to more JPY weakness.

Dallas GEP 00:35 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
shorted AUSSIE 7898 with stop at 7933 target 7820

Syd 00:32 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Australian 4Q CPI +3.3% On Yr Vs +3.6% Consensus
Australian 4Q CPI -0.1% On Qtr Vs +0.2% Consensus

KL KL 00:27 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Ozi CPI figure out in a 5 minutes....get ready

Dallas GEP 00:00 GMT January 24, 2007 Reply   
Hi KL, market has changed alot as you know so I am reluctantly a 2-3 day trader. PLUS I don't post unless I feel extremely confident of the possie. I don't mind losing money on a possie personally cause it happens but it REALLY bothers me to post something that doesn't make money for other people. No one is perfect of course but the pursuit of consistentcy is difficult to say the least. Hope all is well for you and yours.


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