Forex Forum Archive for 01/25/2007

Philadelphia Caba 23:59 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
yep GEP already closed but higher than today's low..nevermind...will re-short at 1.6200-300 if seen..

Gen dk 23:56 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 23:54 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
THX Caba Hope you closed those eur/chf shorts CABA. USD/CHF is becoming somewhat bullish and may drag eur/chf up with it due more of course to chf weakness.

Philadelphia Caba 23:46 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:35 GMT
well said..

Dallas GEP 23:46 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
TM, Well I think gbp/jpy is a SELL on rallies. I think it will see 237.20 area in next few days but it COULD long to 240.00 again PRIOR to seeing the 237.20 area.

SINGAPORE GFX 23:45 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Your thoughts on gbp/jpy pls. thanks

Philadelphia Caba 23:42 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
[Dow Jones] December Japan nationwide core CPI +0.1% on-year, tad slower than 0.2% increase tipped by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, Nikkei. With sluggish pace of CPI increase and some forecasts for core CPI to fall below zero again this year on wearing off of higher energy prices a year earlier, expect political pressure to remain on BOJ to refrain from rate hike soon.

Newport DRB 23:40 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD needed to slide farther to wipe out and clear the dreams of many trying their luck as they awaken to a nightmare.
Now as the stops have been clearing and the predictions false by the so called experts that tried to pick a bottom earlier and post a gazillion book pumps here will the Oz begin to find respite and move higher.

san miniato B 23:40 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
jap dec core cpi + 0,1% y/y vs + 0,2% consensus and last

jhb tm 23:40 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP are you still biased twrds a short on euro / gbp pair.Could you also tell me your thoughts on gby/jpy from present levels
TIA

Syd 23:39 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
usa bay 23:37CPI +0.1%
having pc problem

Pecs Andras 23:39 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Core 0.2, overall 0.1%

usa bay 23:37 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

Do you have the JAPAN CPI PLS. Thanks

Dallas GEP 23:35 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
BTW we all make stupid mistakes so that's no big deal. The mArket makes us all look foolish at times

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:33 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:30 GMT //
tnx - very kind of you!
I have experienced all you say and still can't control myself from doing these mistakes..

Dallas GEP 23:30 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
KAP, gbp/jpy is a very aggressive pair. Most traders should not trade it because it is highly volatile and the support and resistance points on the pair are roughly 60 pips apart so you can make a minor mistake with your entry and be quickly 60 pips down. If you make a bigger mistake it can easily move 200 pips against you in ONE day. When I trade it I do so with fairly wide stops and the possie size is SMALLER than with other pairs. If you are SELLING or shorting gbp/jpy , it is a VERY expensive pair to hold . For future reference pairs that move much less aggresively are eur/gbp and eur/chf

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:27 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
yes very stupid mistake..

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:18 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:14 GMT /
because I made a mistake and maybe this is even bigger mistake - I will maybe close it - I'm newbie so don't get misleade by my posts...pls!

hk ab 23:17 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Is next week FOMC a non-rate decision meeting?

USA BAY 23:14 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN,

Why not wait till CPI to decide on GBP/JPY? Thanks

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:12 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
sterling/yen - GBP/JPY
anyway I reversed to short as I made a foolish mistake - when at profit at 22 I instead of selling to close the long position - bought another position and then it went down to I reversed to short GBPJPY at 238.01
macd and stochs look to me like ready for reversal to downside - but as always I might be wrong..

USA BAY 23:06 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/USD] collapsed like a house of cards slumping from an earlier high of 0....
[AUD/USD] collapsed like a house of cards slumping from an earlier high of 0.7819 to an o/n low of 0.7729 despite the US posting a slightly softer jobless claims and existing home sales. Most of the blame should go to the continuing liquidation of high yielding currencies against the Jpy which has seen both the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY retreating from its recent highs. The pair was also affected by the softer commodity prices giving market players additional reasons to sell it. With no economic releases today due to the Australia Day holiday, market players will likely trade a tight range ahead of a slew of data out of the US. There are some bids at the 0.7720 but more at 0.7700 by a European which will protect the downside while selling orders at 0.7760 by a Swiss name will limit upside gains.

SINGAPORE GFX 22:59 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

You are great. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. GT/GL

jkt-aye 22:57 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFX

for audnzd i got 1.1191 (15M) - 1.1187 (30M) - 1.1181 (1H).
happy hunting.

USA BAY 22:56 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
What is STG/YEN? Thanks

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:53 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
I wonder if there are bold people whobuy STGYEN at these levels - I tried one from 238.06 and now look how it develops..
the MACD and slow stochs look for higher but it is tricky - maybe weak CPI would boost the carry ..

Syd 22:02 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
The main event risks during the Asian session are Japanese National and Tokyo CPIs at 23:30GMT

SINGAPORE GFX 21:47 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

What is the risk/reward for gbp/jpy trade with the CPI JAPAN. Thanks a lot for your analysis.

ABHA FXS 21:43 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 17:39 GMT
--------------------------
GBPJPY 4H
[236.33]if breakout down target 231.19 for 514 pips
GBPUSD 4H
[1.9653]if breakout down target 1.9570 for 83 pips

USA BAY 21:30 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan's [CONSUMER PRICES] due at 23.30GMT are expected to be broadly stable. Th...
Japan's [CONSUMER PRICES] due at 23.30GMT are expected to be broadly stable. The nationwide headline and core CPI are likely to rise 0.3% y/y and 0.2% y/y respectively in Dec, both the same rate as in Nov. Tokyo headline and core CPI are both expected to rise 0.2% y/y in Jan vs 0.3% y/y and 0.2% y/y resp in Dec. The CPI data are closely monitored as strong figures will tip market expectations in favour of a rate hike at the BOJ's next board meeting on Feb20/21. Recall, Fukui commented after the Dec meeting that the CPI/CGPI had been 'somewhat weak." The comment led to much uncertainty about the Jan meeting, though it eventually kept rates unchanged but with 3 dissenters favouring a hike. The [Dec CSPI] is expected to fall 0.1% y/y, the same rate as in Nov, while the m/m reading may be flat amid weak demand for biz-to-biz services.

USA BAY 21:27 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
[NORTH AMERICA FX CLOSE] The Usd forged higher amid CTA and model fund accou...
[NORTH AMERICA FX CLOSE] The Usd forged higher amid CTA and model fund account selling of Eur/Usd following a lift in US Treasury yields after US existing home sales data suggested the market may be stabilising. Usd/Jpy lifted above 121.00, though the move coincided with Jpy bidding on the crosses, suggesting carry trade exitting continues apace

LKWD JJ 21:04 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
$Y looking strong as it bounced off 20ma (daily) back to where we are now.

Syd 21:02 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 20:59 GMT info is, as long as you get it
first :-) cheers

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:59 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:16 GMT //
man this story is great...
btw I also think that the market moves and retailers are the last in the row to know anything.
I understand that in any business and especially in trading information is everything - well it is a long story - tnx again!!

SINGAPORE GFX 20:37 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
JKT AYE,

Can you please tell me the magnetic price for AUD/NZD. TY

SINGAPORE GFX 20:31 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

Thank you so much. So the trend for gbp/jpy is still down? Thanks again

jkt-aye 20:24 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Singpore GFX 17:39

gbpjpy magnetic price level 232.65 base on 1H chart

gbpusd level at 1.9785 & 1.9870 (15M chart), 1.9520 & 1.9860 (30M), 1.9510 & 1.9770 (1H), 1.9450 (4H).

fyi you can use that # for your target objective. gtgl

Gen dk 20:19 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 20:16 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 20:08 GMT you have to look through a lot of the media as a lots put there for punters not real money, most have already done the move.. I put an article on Futures forum earlier you may find interesting
13.20gmt
Steer Clear Of Forex Products, Mom & Pop

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:08 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 19:48 GMT //
tnx 4 the answer - for the bigger picture on Yen/carry theme I follow the newsflow.. I understand that stronger CPI will push the BOJ into tightening... and will endanger carry trades..
I actually thought you talk about some particular CPI fugure that is circulating (like the market talks before UK or US CPI and so on..)
btw - just outside the spin atm going around - - it's really interesting to me how the market works right now:
last week before the corrective moves had began - nearly everybody was like "they can hike .25 and it's still free money... and now after the big money are moving around there is some media spin that is going on (mostly about the G7 meeting) and the opinions are suddenly reversed
- I think when profit taking is over smart money will just buy carry again at low levels and everything will start the same way again..

Syd 20:08 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Federal Reserve Welcomes New Voters: What Does This Mean for Monetary Policy
The Federal Open Market Committee’s first policy setting meeting of 2007 on January 30th will mark the start of a regime change within in the Federal Reserve. An annual rotation will strip regional Fed presidents of their voting rights within the FOMC, including Jeffrey Lacker, Sandra Pianalto, and Janet Yellen, and will bring a set of four different presidents to the table, including Michael Moskow, William Poole, Thomas Hoenig, and Cathy Minehan.
While the departure of members with extreme tightening biases, such as Mr. Lacker, would initially infer a more moderate posture within the FOMC, the addition of three decidedly hawkish individuals and one moderate dove has the potential to create one of the most vigilant monetary policy committees in recent memory.
censored

Syd 19:48 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 19:44 GMT just see with all the talk recently on G7 , this number if strong will clarify the postiion of those calling for a stronger yen - with G7 coming up makes it difficult to hold large carry trade position knowing what the Yen can do when it gets going.

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:44 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 19:33 GMT //
hello - I just checked some calendars where the expected National CPI is 0.3% YoY
I suppose a number over this will cause what you assumed?
or maybe a change in the Core CPI - just asking for clarification since not expert in the matter..

Syd 19:43 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: AUD Still Under Pressure; Carry Trades Unwind

Gen dk 19:41 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 19:34 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 19:33 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan CPI today may be having causing some carry trades to close out , just a thought

Toronto MRC 19:31 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Pound starting to look ugly.

Auckland peat 19:28 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 11:15 GMT January 25, 2007
ichimoku crossover above the cloud on the one hourly chart for USD/CHF. short from 1.2447 20 pip stop

stopped out now, heh trade waited till I woke up to blow out , was + for quite a while.

wellington am 19:28 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
top may be in on nzd/cad after failure at 82.80.

BEIRUT MK 19:21 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
short audusd at 0.7744 target 0.76+

BEIRUT MK 19:20 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
short eurusd at 1.2977 target 1.28+

dc CB 19:05 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
FWIW:
CAD, Oil trade update. Seems to have worked this month.
yesterday Oil Day minus one, morning US spike would have gotten short 11810ish to 11830ish

Removal of partial when in profit, out 11740ish to 11770ish.

Holding some but the tide is turning Stops at BE on last.

Syd 19:05 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
AUDUSD assumption is the potential head and shoulders top that began forming in early December. A decline below .7759 would complete the pattern and expose the 11/13 low at .7614. .7936, which is the top of the right shoulder, is key to the bearish structure. Daily studies are bearish now as well. MACD slope is negative, RSI and CCI are below midpoints and price is below the 20 day SMA.

Philadelphia Caba 18:48 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
BoC's Dodge: expects the USD to depreciate another 4%, mostly against other currencies, not the CAD

Hong Kong Ahe 18:44 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
should be "retreating".

Hong Kong Ahe 18:43 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Yenophobes are treating.

madrid mm 17:49 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
China to Boost Imports on Yuan Concern, Lawmaker Says (Update2)

By Rob Delaney and Yoolim Lee

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- China plans to increase imports rather than allow a freely floating yuan to narrow its trade surplus and curb growth in its ballooning foreign exchange reserves, a top lawmaker said.

``We are going to import more from overseas,'' mainly consumer goods and commodities, to address currency concerns, Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress, said today at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. China isn't ready to free its currency ``at once,'' Cheng said.

SINGAPORE GFX 17:39 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Can you please comment on GBP/JPY AND GBP/USD. Thanks

USA BAY 17:38 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
CTA accounts are selling [EUR/USD], pressuring the pair into the 1.2950 zon...
CTA accounts are selling [EUR/USD], pressuring the pair into the 1.2950 zone where more central bank and semi-official bidding activity is expected. While Usd sentiment remains upbeat, and has been enhanced by firmer US Treasury yields following the Dec existing home sales data, the firmness of the CB bidding seen recently, and the prospect this extends into the 1.2850 area poses a huge hurdle to continued Usd gains. As ever, there remains the risk short term accounts will turn tail and pressure the pair higher again. Stops are expected above 1.3010 and then 1.3050.

USA BAY 17:12 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Could I have your view on gbp/jpy please. Thanks

Cannes Oil man 17:10 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ldn:
For me GBP has been pretty good , played small ranges bought in the morning (see gvi) everything from 1.9656 (lowest) to 1.9680 released at 1.9714..Not much but the market doesn't do much..until the E$ breaks ABOVE 1.3030 , the market will stay crap as it is right now.

Cali mmm 17:01 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Oilman

Cannes Oil man 16:59 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Next add at 6.26.

Como Perrie 16:58 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Actually the rumored report by an advisory company from NYC, some news wrongly naming as a think tank, was just partially release. Funny It made a disaster on most bond desks, which were for the most part unprepared to such an event.

The part that was not disclosed was that long term rates in Us will surge, as the FED will start to lower the short term ones. For now we do see lotsa of activity on the longer side of the curve and lotsa nevousenss and huge billions of bonds flows from stops to cash, at least this late.

Very difficult to see those bonds sold today reinvested anywhere before Davos and FED. So the long term rates will still dance in crazyness of stops long lines fishings and funds returns axing.

Nice It gets

Cannes Oil man 16:58 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Well Adding to my 6.44 short US/NOK , right here at 6.3150...As planned..1/5 of the position , with the target still 6.18.
gl gt

ldn jp 16:57 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:47 GMT January 25, 2007
gbp/usd - been slow today - still think upmove to come later ?

Cannes Oil man 16:56 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
mmm, currently my stops are at 7710..I will probably cut or do something before it gets there though.MY stops are just as usual for the disaster thing..I might cut in 15 pips if i start not to like it.
and re enter 15 pips higher..

Cannes Oil man 16:47 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ET voila, NZD breaking down...

Cali mmm 16:42 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, can you share your stop / TP levels for AUD/USD ? TKS.

Mumbai NS 16:40 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
A lot of b/e stops cleaned out gl gt

Cannes Oil man 16:28 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
INTERMARKET: With no mental stops?
STEIDLMAYER: Right. I didn't use any stops, I just monitored the markets and got out when market activity indicated that I was wrong. And when I'm wrong, since I understand price and time, I don't necessarily have to get out immediately.
That's what I mean by cutting my losses. I cut my losses using preventive medicine. Don't make the stupid trade and you won't get hurt. There's no need to put stops in. Using stops is absolutely ridiculous.

---Steidlmeeyer...Book is out of print , The Big Hitter , but a very good one.

van Gecko 16:27 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:10.. commercial,large, & small traders
ok oil man

Philadelphia Caba 16:24 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Oily, any stops on aussie and kiwi in mind, pls? tia.

Cannes Oil man 16:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Out of EUR/NZD , GBP/NZD = 76 pips.

Keeping audnzd..Watch NZD guys , it will cough tonight...Via NZDJPY...I'm hunchy on this one...Not sure if the word exists , but looks good.

pd cumino 16:19 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:14 GMT January 25, 2007
For HF and CTA picture (updated yesterday) is a bit different, except for EUR where positions are neutral.

Cannes Oil man 16:14 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Gecko ,

I am speaking some of the brokers advertised here and similar, where the real small accounts are.
in SPOT fx...(ala fx'cm, oznada, etc)..

madrid mm 16:10 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 16:01 GMT January 25, 2007

what are the differences between

commercial traders
large traders
small traders ?

ty

Mumbai NS 16:06 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Yep CLSA also says so gl gt

van Gecko 16:01 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Oil man.. don't know your sources but Specs are net long on COT charts

Hong Kong Qindex 15:57 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is heading towards [0.9072]. The current expected trading ranges are 0.8800 - 0.8932 - 0.8890 - [0.9072] - 0.9189 - 0.9254 - 0.9345.

Cannes Oil man 15:34 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 15:09 GMT January 25, 2007

Gecko , once again Specs are net short EURO 59% spot.
Short 79% GBP.
Long $/Y 65%.

Euro is more or less neutral if u will ,but far from being long by fish, it's the contrary.

Tired but sleep doesn't come at 4PM..

Syd 15:25 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Deutche Bank Says Sell EUR/USD, EUR/JPY

Deutsche Bank's global head of FX strategy Bilal Hafeez sees euro weakness ahead in 07, with EUR/USD sliding to 1.20/1.25. Says euro is overvalued in terms of purchasing power. Argues for a "negative surprise" in euro-area economic growth in 07, because of higher taxes, strong exchange rate and impact of US slowdown. Says bank's economists, interestingly, are looking for an ECB rate cut at end-07. Sees central banks diversifying their reserves into yen.

hk ab 15:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
gecko, there "was' a BO session today in silver.And now the energizer rabbits are not tired yet.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:19 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is heading towards [1.0473]. The current expected trading ranges are 1.0267 - 1.0336 - [1.0473]* - 1.0609 - 1.0678.

Syd 15:14 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
U.S. EXISTING-HOME SALES DOWN 0.8% IN DECEMBER
LINK

van Gecko 15:09 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Tor BB 14:00.. gold poking at the 6 month range highs.. dailies above 655 could see 670, but it could aslo turn on a dime under the prevailing market dynamics.. meanwhile, specs are net long & fishes are shouting "break-out"!
still looking for the Yen crosses to inject more life across the board for Goldbugs, Europhiles, Yenophobes, & Fxjunkies..

HK Kevin 15:06 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Just solf EUR/JPY again at 157.06

hk ab 15:05 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
THANKS very much Dr. Q.

EU theEUROqueen 15:00 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Europhiles...

dont be worry @ the end we will win

happy trades

Hong Kong Qindex 15:00 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:56 GMT : Gold is trapped in the range of 632.5 - 656.4.

hk ab 14:56 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, do you see bias on gold has changed now?

Mtl JP 14:56 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
data event risk:

15:00GMT December existing home sales mrkt: 6.25mn last: 6.28mn
15:00GMT December existing home sales (MoM): market: -0.5% last: 0.6%

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:55 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
it's maybe my first trade where I rigidly watch the techs and price - a bit too slow actually and it gets too much on my nerves but I like the current setup as all pieces show the trend is down here...

Hong Kong Qindex 14:54 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
CHF/AUD : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is working on the upper barrier located at 1.0306 // 1.0463. A projected resistant point is located at 1.0516. The current expected trading ranges are 1.0201 - 1.0306* // 1.0463 - 1.0621*

Dallas GEP 14:48 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
YES KAP e/gbp should fall below 6580 in next few sessions

Cannes Oil man 14:46 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Bought GBP/NZD and EURNZD..BOth T/P 2OOP..

it's time for NZD to cough via NZDJY..

this time off.

Cannes Oil man 14:35 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
going out with 12 pips of cad before sleeping, and getting more ozi..
OZIPHILE , i am.

Cannes Oil man 14:33 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Time to go rest...Might wake with OZI at .7840...On the way to .79...
GN.

Athens MK 14:32 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: so far 1.9690 held and usually at this point price action would hit 1.9733. Let's see if it does.

Cannes Oil man 14:31 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Really nice market today, guess large stops were triggered , also via AUD/NZD..Though the direction seems to be down a quick fade on this one is ok from here with a 20 SL.

Cannes Oil man 14:25 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Bought AUD/NZD 1.1091 for a 50 pips T/P...

Tight stops.

RIC fxq 14:23 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
2 full months to go to the next FOMC meeting - Mar 27/28

Cali mmm 14:23 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Tks Oilman

Cannes Oil man 14:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Have to watch the NZD$ carefully, the NZDJPY pair has not given much yet, so it could abruptly start coughing up.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:19 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GEP - go u like EURGBP falling thru 6580?

hk ab 14:18 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
oilman, I think gold and silver will pass the energy to yen and euro while waiting FOMC.

Today is a BO day for silver. the pair is now rolling backwards to clean all those SAR positions at 12.30-12.50......
I exited 1/2 core long silver and waiting this killing knife to reload silver long.

Bahrain BAH1 14:18 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EURCHF: 1.6130 21days ma. let see if it will hold.....next 1.6100/10 good luck.

Cannes Oil man 14:17 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
If you want to play ranges, then look at the E$..

I myself isn't looking at it until extreme pricing OR break above 1.3020...Yes still see it going up...But there are better horses around...Like GBP..
gl gt

Cali mmm 14:14 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, can you pls share your view on EUR/USD at these levels? Thank you.

Cannes Oil man 14:07 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Nice of them to serve us this fresh 7788 entries while gold is at 650...AUDJPY will cool down, then again, like GBP just did today, aud will soar.

GL GT.

Cannes Oil man 14:03 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Shorted $cad close to 1.18
Loaded OZI 7787/88.
Shorted $/Y 120.83

Cannes Oil man 14:01 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
OZI is a gift here..Enjoy while it's hot.

Tor BB 14:00 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Gecko, what is your view on gold this morning, it is passing 650. Do you always expect a turnover, the gold stock are very strong. Thanks for your comments

hk ab 13:59 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
when everyone is arguing the USD direction, no one noticed that XAG moved almost $1 within a week......

PAR 13:42 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
FORD s $ 12.75 billion loss partly due to weak yen which favors japanese car producers. Especially japanese advertising budgets are huge compared to the big three and those advertising budgets are sponsored by a weak yen .

Philadelphia Caba 13:34 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GEP, let's see if 1.6140 will hold or not..

Bahrain BAH1 13:34 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
US weekly jobless claims rose to 325k from 289k, revised from 290k.

Philadelphia Caba 13:32 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
SNB ROTH: Watching import prices very carefully, SNB will act if needed.
...and that all currencies have "phases of strength and weakness".

hk ab 13:29 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
gecko, Martin, look like the sellers have all given up. route to 800 in few months.

Dallas GEP 13:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
CABA, you eur/chf shorts are looking much better. on support here

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:59 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
haha - it's 4 doji candle on hourly chart EURGBP... very annoying anyway..

Vienna GD 12:42 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:16 GMT January 25, 2007
Sorry PAR, but i have to correct that:

Japanese are masters in verbal intervention backed by action from BOJ and a cartel of major international banks around the world. European commission should look into those major banks and search for the biggest amount of carry trades instead of fining Siemens.
But hey ever heard of the rich or the creature hurting themselfs?!!! So forget about it ... and follow footprints. Once you have realized that - jpy-crosses are the preferred (and easiest) trades - or not?!

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:41 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
as some watch Gold - it's making new highs - possible uptrend in the making
last year there was a good correlation with EURUSD and GBPUSD - so it might be signalling uptrend in them too?

van Gecko 12:29 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Path to happiness for Europhiles & Ahe's Yenophobes;

Euro/Yen->155.08
Euro->1.2918
Dollar/Yen->120.08
Dollar & carry kicks in again..
Euro break below year low & Europhiles get to buy some cheap Euroo @ 1.2738
Dollar/Yen rise with it's Crosses for 122.88 while Euro & cousin GBP search for more joy..

life is good.. Fx happy days are here again.. ;)

PAR 12:16 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Japanese are masters in verbal intervention backed by action from BOJ and a cartel of japanese banks around the world. European commission should look into that instead of fining Siemens .

Philadelphia Caba 12:02 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN: Reported comments from Japanese officials Thursday,
** WATANABE: Japan top financial diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe said,
- Doesn't see yen as a major issue at upcoming G7 meeting
- Should discuss currencies on macroeconomic view
- Hedge-fund issues to be discussed at G-7
- Some one may say yen is too weak at G-7
** OTA: Reported comments from Japan Economics Minister
- Japan firms can weather any yen rise given their business structure.
- Up to the BOJ to decide whether to raise rates.
** SUDA: Comments from BOJ policy board member Miyako Suda,
- Need to take certain risks in making monetary policy decisions.
- Weak CPI data alone would not affect monetary policy decisions.
- Hope to share with markets view on rate hike timing.
** OMI: Finance Minister Koji Omi said,
- Has not heard Feb G7 to discuss euro/yen.

mni

san miniato ab 12:00 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
germany's Pfaffenbach denies ruomours circulated yesterday about excessive yen fall to be handled at g7

Global-View GVI 12:00 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GVI 11:54 GMT January 25, 2007
German's Pfaffenbach
- Currently not planning to put yen on G7 FinMin agenda
- Yen weakness certainly of concern but for markets to deal with

melbourne saint 11:59 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok Masoi 11:55 GMT January 25, 2007

watch our national currency


WHY? coup, tsunami, any reason

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:57 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
anyone has the feeling the EUR is leading today and gBP is lagging - any idea why this is happening?

it is most often that GBPUSD is more volatile than EURUSD...
maybe it's due to crosses - any expalnations?

Bangkok Masoi 11:55 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   

watch our national currency

Global-View Research 11:50 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
From Mellon FX Daily
Day Ahead

US – existing home sales have risen in each of the past two months, but only modestly so and are only just off the lows seen in Q3. Inventories of unsold homes will also be monitored for an overall picture of market conditions. For existing home sales inventories have been steadier over the past few months, after rising sharply in the first half of 2006. The added uncertainty in interpreting the housing data at the present time is that any strength might be artificial and purely related to the unusually mild weather in the US over the past couple of months. Mortgage applications fell yesterday, continuing their recent run of volatility.

Japan – CPI data is due tonight with the BoJ having warned last week about the possibility of softer energy prices weighing on the number in coming months. It is not enough to say that this is a potential distortion on the downside, as core CPI ex-food and energy is at -0.2% y/y. If energy prices soften and bring the headline y/y rate towards the core rate, this will merely represent the removal of a previous upward distortion to CPI. Strength in core rates is required to alleviate current lingering concerns about deflation.

Athens MK 11:27 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: If 1.9691 can hold then look for next target at 1.9733

A nice cable target by Asian market close tonight if a bullish move intraday is to continue would be to touch 1.9811 and from there reevaluate the picture...

Hillegom Volvo Svala 11:25 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
""The Netherlands Purk 20:26 GMT December 16, 2006
Well, was not able to glue my face to the monitor due to the outcome of the C30 Volvo. Different public indeed we have got now, and they dont where underpants....""


PURKOVSKY, you was so right about the a.m. ... most important, they do it because they love to do it and not because they have to do it

HILLGOM MARTHA 11:15 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purks 11:10 GMT January 25, 2007
put your pants on when you post purky...your time and volvo card have expired....

Auckland peat 11:15 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ichimoku crossover above the cloud on the one hourly chart for USD/CHF. short from 1.2447 20 pip stop

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:12 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purks 11:10 GMT //
tnx man - I do my best trying what u say...

The Netherlands Purks 11:10 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:22 GMT January 25, 2007

For you i make an exception. You have to change to way of THINKING. Dont listen to anyone and make your own plan.

There is someone here that will be glad that i say those words.
Nobody knows where the market goes, please start with that, and you will be fine.
Oops, i posted.

Athens MK 11:05 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: cable stayed above 1.9680 and has touched first target at 1.9713.....

ABHA FXS 10:53 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Some poor news out of Europe at 4:00 ET almost correlated with the top of Wave C of the Wave 4 on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Thursday 1/25

2:10 EUR German Consumer Confidence 4.8 8.6 8.7
4:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index 107.9 108.9 108.7
4:00 EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index 103.2 103.0 102.5
4:00 EUR Current Account -2.0B 0.7B 1.8B

The economic calendar is light today with existing home sales and jobless claims due for release. Sales of previously owned homes increased for 2 months in a row, suggesting a potential bottom in the housing market. Analysts are projecting a decrease but given the trend of mortgage applications in the month of December, sales could have held steady. Jobless claims are also projected to rise but that is primarily due to the surprise improvements that we have seen over the past week. Therefore these projections are mostly based upon adjustments rather than expected deterioration in the US economy. Should these reports come out strongly, the dollar could extend its move in what is already a dollar positive environment.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:46 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is trading in the range of 1.1651 - 1.1849. The current expected trading ranges are 1.1602 - 1.1651 - [1.1750]* - 1.1849 - 1.1899.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:43 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is working on the barrier at 1.2448* // 1.2621. The current expected trading ranges are 1.2332 - 1.2448* // 1.2621 - 1.2794*

Hong Kong Qindex 10:40 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is vibrating aroud 0.7798 with an expected magnitude of 0.7755 - 0.7841. The current expected trading ranges are 0.7670* - 0.7755 - 0.7798 - 0.7841 - [0.7927]*

Syd 10:36 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
British Airways: No Flights Out Of Heathrow On Jan 30
British Airways Says All Gatwick Flights Also Cancelled

Syd 10:36 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
German GfK Consumer Confidence Dn Sharply On VAT
German consumer confidence has suffered another setback as shoppers in Europe's biggest economy have become more reluctant to make larger purchases, with the value-added tax hike now in place, a survey showed Thursday.

The GfK research group said its forward-looking consumer climate indicator for February sharply fell to 4.8 points from a revised 8.5 in January. The latter figure was revised down from an initially reported 8.7. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a February reading of 8.4.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:35 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the initial upside targeting point is 1.9953. It is likely that GBP/USD has hit the monthly cycle high at 1.9916. The monthly cycle charts indicate that the market can easily move between 1.9574 - 1.9953. The current expected trading ranges are [1.9384]* - 1.9574 - 1.9668 - 1.9763 - 1.9953*.

ABHA FXS 10:33 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
gbp/usd day rang..
[1.9571-1.9593-1.9792-1.9830]
best signal buy 1.9571-1.9593 target 1.9792-1.9830

Hong Kong Qindex 10:26 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is still trapped in the range of 1.2878 - 1.3142. The current expected trading ranges are 1.2614* - 1.2746 - 1.2812 - 1.2878 - [1.3011]* - 1.3143.

Syd 10:25 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Old rival tests Ahmadinejad's nerve
Talk to west or risk disaster, says Rafsanjani
Anger over economy strengthens opposition
Hashemi Rafsanjani, a pragmatic conservative defeated by Mr Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential election, believes Iran may have to yield to western demands to suspend uranium enrichment to save the country's Islamic system from collapse
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1998047,00.html

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 10:04 GMT //
I concur with your view - since I have been thinking for a long time that to be successful in the market you have to have some secret info but with time I understand that there is more to risk mgmt that just making big gains because soemtimes I do very good for my level but most times I give back the gains... so I need soe sustainable model instead of going for some very big wins..

Hong Kong Qindex 10:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is heading towards 1.6772. It is trapped in the range of [1.6603] - 1.6772. The current expected trading ranges are [1.6603]* - 1.6772 - 1.6857 - 1.6941 - 1.7111*

Auckland trotter 10:19 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 10:04 GMT January 25, 2007
Auckland trotter 09:55 GMT January 25, 2007

The more you understand a particular currency pair - given expected fundamentals, and various technicals over various time charts - then, I agree your probability of a successful trade is more certain.

I think we agree, just a difference on terminology.

No probs

Glgt

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:17 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
while all look the carry I stick to my EURGBP:
on 8h chart the MACD hist is sloping and the signal line looks ready to fall - - the slow stochastics are crossing down just above the OB line and the RSI14 is sloping down...
on 1h I have a lower top and MACD and slow stchs in bearish mode - as GEP posted the first S to break is the 80 level..

Hong Kong Ahe 10:13 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
What Watanabe said ... is very funny. It is not a major issue. Then it is a minor issue. Rose is still a rose. An issue is still an issue. Let them debate it. LOL.

GENEVA DS 10:11 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
LOOSE-LOOSE situation for yen bears....

If G7 does not talk about yen weakness then yen will rise because market is completely oversaturated with yen shorts... and if G7 talks about yen then..... 115... 110... 105... 100... very fast.... oderwise only medium fast...

good luck to all

Auckland trotter 10:10 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Expecting a correction for the EUR/USD around 1.2962 from the RSI on the 5min 12hr chart to around 1.2977, before more possible down movement.

Taking profit where I see it for now - the range is getting narrower.

Bahrain BAH1 10:07 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Watanabe says some G7 officials may debate yen weakness.

Bahrain BAH1 10:05 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan MoF's Watanabe says doesn't see yen as a major issue at upcoming G7 meeting.

Athens MK 10:04 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:55 GMT January 25, 2007

Hi trotter.....

It depends on what you mean by understanding the market... Since this market is huge and market direction is determine by a series of events that I will rarely have info on prior to it effecting price action then I for one will never understand the market. :)

I do understand probabilities though, and in foreign exchange because of it's nature we prefer to trade within this trading paradigm. We know the risks and by knowing your risk you can formulate successful trading strategies that work long-term.

Everyone has there way of trading the market and if you are doing good then congratulations...

London JBS 10:01 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN MOF'S WATANABE SAYS DOESN'T SEE YEN AS A MAJOR ISSUE AT UPCOMING G7 MEETING

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:01 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
LDN Jez 09:47 GMT //
you ean M&A (like Gallaher purchase by Imperial Tabacco)
btw - we been discussing this M&A flow here and it went like this that M&A flows don't actually have big impact on the crosses but i feel like it is the other way...
if another 6bn are on the waiting list I'd look for any dips in STG/YEN

- - I look on 8h chart GBPJPY and the last correction (Jan 3-8) was around 700 pips - now we have retraced like 500 only and the techs ar still not reaching any extremes - so maybe more carry correction will ensue

LDN Jez 09:56 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
As I said it is just a rumour..Most of which are unprofessional and incorrect but they do the rounds never the less

Auckland trotter 09:55 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 09:41 GMT January 25, 2007
“The way our models work is with probabilities”

To a certain extent I would agree. But understanding the market has a greater benefit.

I prefer to work on a certainty of a trade - for which I am still learning.

I guess it depends on what time scale you are trading on.

Glgt

Bahrain BAH1 09:53 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Rumors that China might raise interest rate tom.

U.K. J.B 09:53 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
LDN Jez 09:47 GMT January 25, 2007

Be careful this is a very stale rumour that has been doing the rounds all morning. Denied by the Bank. A bit like the ridiculous rumour of a bank trader losing his shirt. All very unprofessional.

Time to trim some aussie shorts and trail the stop...

Market driven purely by the crosses at the moment.. GL/GT

ABHA FXS 09:53 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Thursday January 25
Trade Buy USD/CHF at 1.2445
Stop is 1.2416
Target is 1.2600
Risk is 33 pips
Reward is 151 pip
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.6
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good
===
Thursday January 25
Trade Sell GBP/USD at 1.9706
Stop is 1.9753
Target is 1.9600
Risk is 51 pips
Reward is 102 pip
Reward / Risk Ratio is 2.0
Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair
===
Thursday January 25 at 3:00 ET
Trade Sell EUR/USD at 1.3000
Stop is 1.3026
Target is 1.2830
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 167 pip
Reward / Risk Ratio is 5.7
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good
==

LDN Jez 09:47 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Rmr in mkt about big GBPYEN m+a to be done buying dips.
Over half done yesterday. 12 yds in total apparantly. Just a rmr

Athens MK 09:41 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
london pw 09:20 GMT January 25, 2007

Good question :)

The way our models work is with probabilities, volatility, etc... and when a currency like cable is stretch beyond a certain point it has a high probability to snap and continue on it current direction. How far depends on market conditions but we see at least 100 pips and usually more. You can use Fibonacci to determine your best exit points or probabilities analysis etc...

This last week we saw cable hit that predetermine snapping point which was at 1.9843 and a confirming 1.9868. Normally we would wait to take first profit at 1.9943 (100+ pips) that has a very high probability to be touched. Yesterday price action only saw 1.9915 before retracing occurred. This sometimes will occur because of market forces outside if the GBP/$ realm such as carry trades in crosses or multi-year market highs.

In this situation we have both, not an ideal situation for system trading since the market will start to work outside of it's 98%+ prior history...

We still need to see 1.9943 touched or 1.9593 stops to be trigger before our bias to the upside changes....

Because of the above disturbances in price action you should chose careful your entries and stops. Or stay out until either 2.0 is broken or if the barrier remains then ride cable on it's way down.

Intraday target: Right now if price stays above 1.9680 look for a first target of 1.9713 - 1.9733 - 1.9765

If cable continues to sink then a target of 1.9580 looks to be a first target......

GLGT

Vilnius 09:41 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Thank You
London JBS
Save my money...

Hong Kong Qindex 09:39 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : as shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is trapped in the range of 1.5110 - 1.5464. The current expected trading ranges are 1.5110* - 1.5287 - 1.5375 - 1.5463 - [1.5640]*.

Auckland trotter 09:39 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
The EUR/USD gives an interesting level around 1.2962 on the 5min 5day chart - this is the previous weekly close.

Bahrain BAH1 09:36 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
He Adds BoJ's January decision to hold rates was right.

London JBS 09:34 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
KURODA SAYS AT THIS STAGE NO NEED TO RAISE JAPAN RATES IN FEB BUT DEPENDS ON ECON DATA

London JBS 09:30 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
DAVOS-ADB PRESIDENT KURODA SAYS YEN WEAKNESS FROM CARRY TRADE HAS GONE TOO FAR

KURODA SAYS HE SEES RISK OF YEN CARRY UNWIND WITHIN TWO YEARS

Syd 09:30 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Ifo Official Doesn't Expect ECB Rate Hike In Feb

Cannes Oil man 09:29 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Back in a few hours..

Flat atm on gbp$
Cannes Oil man 09:05 GMT January 25, 2007
Closed gbp$ at 14...

Rebuying same area if seen , and if awake.
gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 09:25 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:23 GMT - The charts are freely available in my website (qindex dot com)

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:23 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:18 GMT //
tnx for the answer!!
I have some charts telling me it is going lower with these lower tops but I was interested what the quantative method tells..
however i really don't understand if the monthly cycle projection gives a range 6519 - 6695 (if I remember correctly) - how is this distributed to the chart - what is the pattern?

Auckland trotter 09:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
I have had problems sorting out the upgrades to Internet Explorer that I have just received. Lost my book marks- now sorted, but it is very slow.


Was going to say earlier, which I see as still relevant:

EUR/USD is in need of correction with the price pressure towards the weekly pivot of 1.2953, which is also an interesting level on the 4hr 20day chart.

In the mean time I have taken profit on some trades at 1.2977 being a level of interest on the 4hr 20day chart.

Will see what the ‘state’ of the price is if it hits 1.2953.

london pw 09:20 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 12:27 GMT January 24, 2007
Athens MK 12:23 GMT January 24, 2007

Athens - do you still feel these parameters are applicable for gbp/usd ? thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 09:18 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:29 GMT - EUR/GBP : Bascially it is trapped in the range of 0.6548 - 0.6606.

Syd 09:17 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
4CAST...USD/JPY, AUD/JPY Flows - JPY lifted on hawkish BoJ Suda- she mentioned weak JPY too!

chicago goofy 09:06 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ifo 107.5 vs 109

ldn jp 09:04 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
anybody got ifo nos

Bahrain BAH1 09:04 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
German January Ifo business climate index 107.9 from 108.7 in December and against forecasts for 109.0.

London JBS 09:03 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ifo 107.9 vs 109.0 exp

Bahrain BAH1 08:57 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
flat now...IFO after 5min. take care.

Bahrain BAH1 08:39 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Dutch consumer confidence up at +13 in January from +8 in December.

Bahrain BAH1 08:36 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
short euro at 95 stop at 1.3015 p/t at 1.2960 GL

Gen dk 08:33 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:33 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
maybe 236.60 and 156 were god levels to resume carry..

I feel that while the crowd is digesting the pullback and trying to fade the last phases of the correction - this is where the smart money are already piling up...

Hong Kong Ahe 08:31 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Yenophobes fight back after EURJPY reached 155.70/80 except those holding NZDJPY. They grab any chances of a little up-tick to square their short of JPY. The unwinding of carry trade is not yet over. GL and GT.

Bahrain BAH1 08:24 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
G7: Talk in the market that G7 will not discuss yen. Take care. GL

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:18 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
anyone see lower top forming on EURGBP on hourly charts - possible downtrend?

Cannes Oil man 08:10 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Stops to entries and target 1.99 ?..Wil wait break of 1.9740 to do it.

Bahrain BAH1 07:49 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
French January business confidence index was 106, the same as December and in-line with forecasts. The production outlook index was -2 from -1 in December and an expected +1.

Syd 07:45 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
FRANKFURT (AFX) - The GfK market research institute

Syd 07:43 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
its consumer climate index for Germany is forecast to drop to 4.8 points in February from a downwardly revised 8.5 points in January.

The institute said households are significantly less optimistic about spending money following the 3 percentage point increase in Germany's VAT sales tax earlier this month.

The institute's index measuring consumers' willingness to spend plummeted by 65 points from a month earlier to minus 5.1 points in January -- the strongest decline since monthly data was collected in 1980.

"Apparently there is currently still great uncertainty among consumers how the higher VAT tax is affecting prices," the institute said.

Income expectations improved some 11 points to minus 5.1 points, after a sharp decline in December.

Consumers' expectations about the economy improved a modest 1.8 points to 37.5 points -- the highest level since January 2001.

Last month, GfK had forecast the January consumer climate index at 8.7 points.

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:29 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:36 GMT //
hello doc - may I ask how is the range distributed by your model on EURGBP - I look at various timeframes and I think it lost its momentum to the downside and looking for the higher range..

madrid mm 07:20 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   

Thursday: The outlook for the housing slowdown will become clearer after existing home sales today and new home sales tomorrow.

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:12 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
any news on EURGBP?

Hong Kong Qindex 06:41 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is vibrating around 1.6183 with an expected magnitude of 1.6155 - [1.6239]*. The current expected trading ranges are 1.6071* - 1.6127 - 1.6155 - 1.6183 - [1.6239]*

Hong Kong Qindex 06:40 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is vibrating around 1.6183 with an expected magnitude of 1.6155 - [1.6239]*.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:36 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market has potential to vibrate around 0.6606 with an expected magnitude of 0.6517 - 0.6695. The current expected trading ranges are 0.6517 - 0.6561 - 0.6606 - 0.6628 - 0.6695.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:26 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is retreating from the upper normal monthly cycle limit around 2.4764 (The monthly high is 2.4758). The market momentum is strong and it has penetrated through the barrier at 2.4396* // 2.4580. The next targeting range is [2.4026]* - 2.4152. The current expected trading ranges are [2.4026]* - 2.4152 - 2.4213 - 2.4274 - 2.4396*

Hong Kong Qindex 06:24 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is retreating from the upper normal monthly cycle limit around 2.4764 (The monthly high is 2.4758). The market momentum is strong and it has penetrated through the barrier at 2.4396* // 2.4580. The next targeting range is [2.4026]* - 2.4152.

Paris 06:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 03:45 GMT January 25, 2007
Give the verbal diarrhia a rest oil slick...this "look at me " attention deficit disorder you got needs to be treated...check youself in for a self-denial treatment...

NY RP 05:58 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
The Dollar will be lead by Gold.
Time for rest. GL

Syd 05:56 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Ayatollah's snub pressures Iran president
Internal pressure on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran to abandon his confrontational policies with the West has intensified after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme spiritual leader, snubbed a request for a meeting on the country's controversial nuclear programme.
President Ahmadinejad faces growing opposition
Iran's president meets regularly with Ayatollah Khamenei, who is regarded as the guardian of the Islamic Revolution, to brief him on international and domestic political issues. But when the president requested a meeting earlier this month, the ayatollah declined
It is a clear indication that the cracks are starting to appear in the highest echelons of the Iranian regime," said a senior Bush administration official with responsibility for monitoring Iran. "If the country's leading religious figure is not talking to the political leadership then obviously something is going seriously wrong."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/01/25/wiran25.xml

Mumbai NS 05:35 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Sell dollars culd be a broader theme agree but looking at chart patterns n considering the shorter frames think we have one more bout of dollar strength before the sell off prefer to sell failed rallies on euro and cbl and SOB for usdjpy at the moment. gl gt

hk ab 05:34 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
rP//I see gold may retrace to 640 briefly again and silver 13.10.

Syd 05:11 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Thousands prepare for ruling from Europe
The Government is braced for a judgment that could result in mass compensation
At 8.30am today the European Court of Justice hands down a ruling that, for thousands of Britons, could mean the difference between poverty in retirement and the easy days of gardening and travel they were expecting. Decisions don't come much bigger.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/25/ccpens25.xml

Hong Kong Qindex 04:20 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market has a potential to vibrate around 101.79 with an expected magnitude of 100.58 - 102.33. The current expected trading ranges are 98.83* - 100.58 - 101.46 - 102.33 - [104.08]*

Cannes Oil man 04:07 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
You might be right, or the dip might already be done.

Atm the euro is at a key level once again..If it manages to hold this time above 1.2940, then chances are the cable dip is already done...If it is done, then high chances the market goes back to the big theme, sell $ , go into carry's again and we run higher..I find it a good level here, same for the OZI..(Probably not OZI/NZD though)..
lgl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 04:02 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is going to test the supporting strength of the lower barrier at 95.15 // 96.63. The current expected trading ranges are 93.68* - 95.15 //96.63 - 97.61.

to dr unken katt 03:51 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
its not dead just need the correction and check the t/l if it holds the load , i know the yen is getting stronger , $ is becoming opposute

Cannes Oil man 03:45 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Yes, people were saying it also at 1.93...Cable is dropping, cable is dead....Cable went to 1.99..

I can see it dip to 1.9580 today...But ultimately up and fly it is...Trend is up..Cable's problem atm isn't $'s strength, it's YEN's...(which if you look in the archives i've been warning for a week..all this people longing 121.30 , to (quoting:) "Not miss the opportunity"..)..
I think we are in the same situation at the first week of january...We are going to get a little unwinding (on $/Y as i've posted to 119.70 first) , then back to the carry theme...$/Y might drop even further , to 117..But by then cable and euro will have detached and started flying again..This is how i see things atm.
gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 03:43 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:37 GMT - You are welcome.

Syd 03:37 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT thanks for that

to dr unken katt 03:35 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man thats pretty silly
just check the dayli studies, the sky is falling , cable is down to the usual t/l on 4hr 9450-9500

Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market has a good potential to tackle 92.45 which is the initial downside targeting point. In the mean time the market is going to vibrate around 93.82. The current expected trading ranges are 91.42 // 92.45* - 93.13 - 93.48 - 93.82 - [94.51]*

Cannes Oil man 03:30 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Yes I am long GBP$ from current levels.

However , if GBPJPY doesn't stabilizes , we're going to have a run down..Which isn't going to be to my liking.

NY RP 03:29 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 03:26 GMT January 25, 2007
At this point only core position is GOLD, long.
Looking to build others as market when all lined up.Must say postion trading Euro sub 1.30 is tempting, but will wait for trigger.

NY RP 03:27 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 03:22 GMT January 25, 2007
Like wise. looking forward to near future. I kind of get the feeling markets are complacent. When that happens we ususally get a surprise. Any guesses?

ldn jas 03:26 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 03:14 GMT January 25, 2007
NY RP 01:44 GMT January 25, 2007

Are you long gbp/usd at the moment ?

Syd 03:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: German Official Flags Weak Yen - Report


Added to comments from unnamed European sources overnight, Germany's deputy economy minister, Bernd Pfaffenbach, told Bloomberg in Davos that the "yen's lasting weakness is a cause for concern to us"; but adds he assumes yen weakness will be addressed "again on the sidelines of the G7 meeting," suggesting yen weakness very unlikely to be an issue in main meeting of ministers and central bankers in Essen and even less likely to be mentioned in post-meeting communique.

hk ab 03:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
RP..nice sharing with you.

Cannes Oil man 03:14 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 01:44 GMT January 25, 2007

Thanks, and yes you are right, no one ever looses here....
I m looking for upside in GBP$ , need GBPJPY to stabilize for it to hapen...My guess is 120.40 has done it , for the day, so could see upside in gbp now.

to dr unken katt 03:11 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
230 comes out as the lower band of the tunnel on 4hr
the upper of 23740 just has been mreached moments ago , at this rate i think before the next wednesday

london jas 03:02 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 02:59 GMT January 25, 2007
london jas 02:48 GMT January 25, 2007
ok thanks for clarification NY RP

USA BAy 03:01 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Is the target still 236.53 or do you have a lower target area. thank You

USA BAY 03:00 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt,

What is the time frame for gbp/jpy 230 target please?. thanks

Syd 03:00 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan policy board member Miyako Suda said Thursday the BOJ shouldn't hesitate to consider raising interest rates if the bank is confident the economy and prices will continue to move in line with its forecasts.

"If the board takes longer to confirm its judgment of economic and price moves, that will delay the timing of a rate hike and cause big swings in the economy and instability of prices," Suda told business leaders in Saga, southern Japan.

Suda hinted that she was against keeping monetary policy unchanged at last week's board meeting, saying that she was "confident in the possibility that the economy and prices will move in line with our forecasts made in October."

Suda is regarded as a hawkish member of the nine-person board, and analysts have speculated she may have been one of the three members who voted against keeping interest rates unchanged at the meeting.

ldn pw 03:00 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 00:13 GMT January 25, 2007
any updates on these please ABHA - particularly interested in gbp/usd and usd/jpy....thanks

NY RP 02:59 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
london jas 02:48 GMT January 25, 2007
LOL. My thoughts are based on reality. The shifts in US Dollars into Euros is monumental. It is more like the anit-dollar.
The USD index says it all. The chart looks like Enron. One cannot trade the sell side of the buck and making a successful living doing it. But, with that said i think Gold will lead the dollar lower. If you look a the USD Index, and look at the counter rallies we have seen, I would say if thats all you got, then there are problems. Its not over yet, if it trades over 8550 it may catch some with their pants down and spark one last move before the markets look to test the .8000 level. That will be the level of all levels. It will be protected, and defended, but the enevitable will follow. Those are my thoughts. On a daily basis we will monitor Fx moves as most do to make an income, whether long or short.GL

to dr unken katt 02:54 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
cableyen target 230 ,it seems

london jas 02:48 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 02:45 GMT January 25, 2007
does your crypric comment mean you think the dollar will weaken or strengthen ? thanks

NY RP 02:45 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 02:36 GMT January 25, 2007
Good day. Timing the move will be left to the markets. LOL
Haven't a clue whether our friends in the east have more interest in taking credit for the break or the guns in west.
The last 30 days appear to have been nothing more than violent whipsaw. Tops and bottoms are not events they are processes. I strongly believe we are about to witness a very strong move in Gold that will catch most off guard. You have to admit the shiny metal does have alot of appeal, especially to new players in town. You know the ones with trillion dollar pockets. The ones that have patience and will not allow the hammer to fall while they are underneath. I won't get into the dollar bashing except to say the writing is on the walls. GL

hk ab 02:44 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
any possibility of the BO type selling like the one in 2002 again?

hk ab 02:36 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
RP//Which session do you think the BO will take place? Asian or NY tomorrow?

Syd 02:27 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Suda: Delay Of Policy Change May Cause Big Econ Swings

Suda:Should Mull Policy Change If Future Econ View Solid

Syd 02:26 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Huge S/T Investors Push USD/JPY Lower

USD/JPY falls sharply, last 120.57 on EBS from 120.83 earlier in Asian session as huge short-term speculations like U.S. hedge funds lock in profits amid lack of fresh cues to spur USD/JPY rise, says trader at major Japan bank; adds, stop-loss sell orders between 120.50-120.60 may push pair lower, tips 120.40-121.00 range for now. Adds, EUR/JPY falling for same reason; tips 156.00-156.50 band

China 4Q Data Suggest RRR Hike Soon - Galaxy China inflation risks picking up with December CPI +2.8% on-year, vs market expectation of +1.9% while 4Q GDP +10.4% on-year vs expected +10.1%. "The data have sent a clear signal that China needs further tightening measures," says Zuo Xiaolei, economist at Galaxy Securities; expects another reserve requirement ratio hike at end of next month or early March. Adds, there's also room for interest rate hike this year, but hard to tell timing as central bank will likely take various factors into consideration before taking such aggressive tightening step.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:25 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : As shown in the projected profile of my monthly cycle probability chart the market is heading towards 119.10. The current expected trading ranges are [118.23]* - 119.10 - 119.53 - 119.96 - 120.83* // 122.13.

Syd 02:24 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan Govt Reiterates Next FY Economy To Grow Real 2.0%Japan's economy is forecast to expand 2.0% in price-adjusted terms in the fiscal year starting April on the back of private demand and exports, the government said Thursday.

The government expects nominal gross domestic product to exceed the real rate by 0.2 point to post 2.2% growth in fiscal 2007. GDP is the widest gauge of economic activity.

USA BAY 02:15 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
[EUR/DLR] felt more power of [EUR/YEN] sales than [EUR/STG] demand, and fell f...
[EUR/DLR] felt more power of [EUR/YEN] sales than [EUR/STG] demand, and fell from 1.3037 to 1.2948 y/day. Offers around 1.3030-50 are unchanged, and fresh sell orders are seen from 1.2990 this mng. Downside orders are bids around 1.2950-45 and stops below 1.2940. 1.2950-45 and 1.2975-80 would be watched as the immediate parameters. The latest picture indicates the initial upward attempts have failed, so resilience around the Senkou-span cloud bottom at 1.2924 would be watched. The 90D-MA at 1.2908 that is slowly moving up is working as a good support. The 21D-MA at 1.3020 is downtrending and is also capping the mkt as well especially on NY close base. Mixed picture.

NY RP 02:07 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Something to think about is Stagflation. OOOhhhh what a naughty animal. Time will tell.

Auckland peat 02:03 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
obvious answer as to a reason why USD *could* go up is that inflation will re-emerge, forcing rate hikes in 2007.
just thought I would answer that question. not saying it will.

hk ab 02:01 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
very concerted action in yen.

hk ab 01:55 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
anyone seeing Fed to hike next Wed?

Hong Kong Qindex 01:54 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is basically vibrating around 156.62 with an expected magnitude of 154.51 - 158.73.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:52 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Trading below 156.62 is not a good sign for the market.

Philadelphia Caba 01:51 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 01:43 GMT
have the same question with nzd/jpy and nzd/usd ..

Hong Kong Qindex 01:46 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 00:46 GMT - As shown in my monthly cycle frequency charts both projected chart point at 234.72 and 238.34 has roughly the same frequency numbers. This would indicate the ease of movement between them. If the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through [236.53], the next targeting range is 233.81 - 234.72.

NY RP 01:44 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 00:47 GMT January 25, 2007
Hey, great calls. Good to see someone calling it in advance. I dont think this room has any traders that lose, does it? LOL
Seriously you insights have proved accurate. APPLAUSE.
In refernce to gold we are buyers and have core positions that are profitable. We see the 650 obstacle being over taken shortly. If not on the first shot, certainly soon there after.
If this carry trade does ever unwind, maybe the tiny gold market become a healthy choice? GL

LKWD JJ 01:43 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
how does strength in yen vs gbp and vs usd drag down gbp usd? cant they stay relatively equal as the yen goes up? same for yen vs aud and audusd?

Cannes Oil man 01:22 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Strange how GBP$ made a multi year high, retraced 250 pips, and everyone sees it crashing back to pre hike rate, and below..What happened to trend is friend, buy on dips?
I ve been feeling lonely since 1.93 and below with my gbp$ buying, euro buys (which haven't gotten anywhere).

We were at 1.40 in 2000 or so at 1.76 in april ,now at 1.96...what exactly is the trigger to say the trend is ended?
The fact is , i don't understand why fundamentally people want to see the US$ UP..Any can answer the why should US$ go up from here?

USA BAY 01:09 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
WARSAW TOMI,

No problem. Understand your feeling, happens very often to me. GT/GL

warsaw TOMi 01:07 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 01:01 GMT January 25, 2007
thx for that.

my favourite trade of them all is to go short cable, had a chance to short it at highest price ever in my whole career and became paralised at that moment, crap..
gl/gt

Syd 01:02 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan Omi: Won't Comment On Daily Forex News
Haven't Heard A Cheap Yen Will Be Topic At G7


Robust Trade May Support BOJ N/T Rate Hike
Japan trade surplus with U.S. +12.6% on-year in December, boding well for BOJ rate hike in February, says Barclays Capital chief Japan economist Takuji Aida; "the data may indicate the U.S. economy is still supporting Japanese exporters and its overall economy." Adds, "the BOJ has been worried about the U.S. economic conditions as well as Japanese domestic consumer spending and prices, so the robust trade data may encourage the bank to decide to tighten credit next month."

USA BAY 01:01 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
[GBP/USD] collapsed from an earlier high of 1.9830 in Asia to an o/n low of 1.9...
[GBP/USD] collapsed from an earlier high of 1.9830 in Asia to an o/n low of 1.9645 as unwinding in Jpy carry trades continued. The sharp move lower was also precipitated by comments from BOE Gov King who said that the MPC's "central view remains that inflation is likely to fall back in the second half of the year, possibly quite sharply". Minutes from the Jan meeting showed a close vote of 5-4 for a hike which has led market players to scale back their belief that another rate hike is imminent. UK Q4 GDP grew 0.8% q/q its most significant quarterly growth in 2 1/2 years. On an annualized basis, GDP expanded 3% up from Q3's 2.9%. Buying orders at 1.9630 by a French name will provide support while selling orders at 1.9720 by a UK Clearer and Fund types will limit upside gains.

warsaw TOMi 00:57 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris, if you there, can you tell where is cable going to,please.. thanks

Syd 00:52 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD Under Pressure Against JPY, NZD - ANZ
Downward pressure on AUD intensifies on crosses after AUD/USD's failure below 0.8000 Wednesday, says Tony Morriss, senior FX strategist at ANZ. Broad unwinding of carry trades, particularly in AUD/JPY, suggests AUD has achieved cyclical high vs JPY; hawkish tone of RBNZ statement weighs on AUD/NZD. With no major local data until mid-next week, focus shifts to run of U.S. data. Pair last at 0.7790.


Japan Ota: Strong Stk Mkt Reflects Robust Corp Pfts

Cannes Oil man 00:47 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:38 GMT January 25, 2007

Gold looks still ok, though have to be careful , as the unwinding in yen will hurt the com's dol the most (ozi, nzd, zar, ...and gbp)...So it might in the end affect gold..Though so far gold doesn't seem to care and keeps pushing, but it will need support to pass above 650.

SINGAPORE GFX 00:46 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

As you have indicated the odds are against holding long gbp/jpy, but the key level 236.53 is just 100 pips away and we have a week more for the end of the month, should the key level be breached, what is the next level for gbp/jpy. THANKS

Syd 00:43 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Trade Data Show Japan Econ Robust - Barclays
Japan trade data show December exports +9.8% on-year, suggesting Japan economy still growing, underpinned by robust export performance, says Barclays Capital chief Japan economist Takuji Aida; "Japanese exports will likely continue growing due in part to economic development in emerging counties even if the global economy slows down." Adds, 7.6% rise in imports also indicates Japan domestic demand still expanding; says exports, imports have become balanced enough to boost Japan economic growth further

Cannes Oil man 00:40 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ldn jp 00:20 GMT January 25, 2007

Frankly right now , all this guys might be pulled down by yen strength (whatever PAR says , yen going stronger) , so GBP went ballistic with GBPJPY , so it is very likely it drops another couple hundred pips before the new rise.
1.9640--1.9580 key area.

Syd 00:39 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Europeans Not Alone In Begrudging Soft Yen

Europeans aren't only ones grumbling about the yen: Japan's neighbors too have been fretting that soft yen, in combination with China's efforts to keep yuan gains limited, is hurting their competitiveness. Most vocal have been Koreans with KRW reaching 9-year high vs USD in December, climbing to highest level vs JPY since 1997 in early January; Korea carmaker Hyundai Motor is expected to report fall in 4Q profit, due largely to stronger KRW. Yet Seoul isn't only one suffering - THB rose roughly 16% vs USD last year, IDR, SGD both gained about 7.7%. "There may be some intra-regional issues (in Asia) in 2007. The value of the won" vs JPY is likely to be "a big issue for Korean exporters," says Deutsche Bank's Jens Nystedt; with rates at 0.25%, "Japan has managed to get a free ride on rate differentials" while neighbors not so lucky. Weaker JPY is major factor in "why most of the rest of the region has been fairly stagnant," says HSBC's Clyde Wardle; "the Bank of Korea and other central banks are becoming somewhat concerned vis-a-vis the strength of the yen

hk ab 00:38 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
oilman, after 651, do you see a need of a short rest on gold bulls? or do we just keep adding? mAny good trades from you.

Cannes Oil man 00:32 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo, Jan
25. Data for the week-ended January 20 show Japanese investors net sellers of foreign assets. Net liquidation was seen in all three asset categories with net
sales of Y35.5 bln seen in stocks, Y4.3 bln in bonds and Y89.3 bln in bills. The thinking here is that any fresh flows into foreign assets by investment trusts were likely offset by profit-takes by larger institutional investor on the other side of the ledger, foreign investors were again good buyers of Japanese stocks, purchasing a net Y648.3 bln. Foreign investors also bought a whopping net Y1.0329 trln in Japanese bonds and a net Y99.0 bln in Japanese bills.

ABHA FXS 00:24 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX
my trade still valid
Monday January 23
Trade Experiment #326 Sell GBP/JPY at 241.50
Stop is 242.11
Target is 236.00
Risk is 70 pips
Reward is 540 pip
--
day rang
240.79 -- 236.53

ldn jp 00:20 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 00:18 GMT January 25, 2007
Do you feel the same about gbp/usd ?

ABHA FXS 00:19 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd....
Trending markets often retrace in a wave 4 during the Asian session. Also, according to my count, we are due for an upwards wave 4 correction of this downtrend, which can carry the price up to between 1.9725 and 1.9800. It I was short, I might consider taking my profits and waiting for a good re-entry opportunity.

Also, the GBP news today was pretty good:

Wed.1/24
4:30 GBPGDP q/q (p) 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%
4:30 GBPBOE Meeting Minutes 5-4 8-1 9-0
4:30 GBPIndex of Services 3m/3m 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%

SINGAPORE GFX 00:17 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Whats your view on gbp/jpy please. ty

ABHA FXS 00:13 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF will likely correct down now to about 1.2440 and then proceed on upwards to about 1.2550 to 1.2600. Current price is 1.2490.

GBP/USD will correct upwards now to about 1.9725 from its current price of 1.9670 and then carry on downwards to about 1.9585.

EUR/USD will correct upwards now to about 1.2980 from its current price of 1.2955 and then carry on downwards to about 1.2780 to 1.2840. A failed fifth wave down would stop at about 1.2880.

USD/JPY will likely correct down now to about 120.60 to 120.70 and then proceed on upwards to about 122.00 to 123.25. Current price is 121.00.

This is a general outlook only, and very approximate, not a trade recommendation or trade experiment, based on Elliott Wave theory as I currently understand and apply it. I do this to practise my prediction methods, and to anticipate future favorable trade set-ups.

USD/JPY will likely descend from its current price at 120.50 to about 120.00 (or a bit lower) in a wave C of a downwards Wave 4 and then continue its long uptrend to a high of about 121.50 to 122.00."

In fact, USD/JPY fell only to 120.22 instead of 120.00 in the Wave C of a downwards Wave 4, because of its bullish trend, and it is seemingly well on its way to a high of 122.00 or higher, with an interim high of 121.80.

Sell USD/CHF at 1.2490

Stop is 1.2503

Target is 1.2440

Risk is 17 pips

Reward is 46 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 2.7

Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

Hong Kong Qindex 00:10 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the following is still valid :-

Hong Kong Qindex 08:51 GMT January 24, 2007
EUR/USD : the market is under pressure when it is trading below (1.2999).

USA BAY 00:09 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

THANKS. MY system shows aud/nzd is heading to 1.1100, just wanted to compare.

Syd 00:08 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Soft, Australian CPI Weighs
AUD/USD to be soft, undermined by yesterday's weak Australian CPI data, unwinding of AUD/JPY longs, as well as bearish AUD/NZD cross. Morgan Stanley suggests holding short AUD/USD as Australian CPI data suggest enough spare capacity may be opening up to keep RBA on hold for some time, while U.S. growth likely to surprise on strong side, suggesting risk FOMC may yet have additional tightening to do. Dow Jones technical analysis indicates AUD/USD has negative bias on daily chart with both MACD, stochastic indicators bearish; AUD/USD spot rate below 5-, 15-day moving averages. Pair may test immediate support at 0.7789 (yesterday's low), breach of which would target 0.7758 (Jan. 10 low).

Hong Kong Qindex 00:05 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:54 GMT - AUD/NZD : It can only be done on special arrangement.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:02 GMT January 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle charts are [236.53]* - 238.34 - 239.24 - 240.15.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:20 GMT January 24, 2007
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards [236.53]*