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Forex Forum Archive for 01/26/2007

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Dallas GEP 23:14 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Your welcome BAY,

warsaw TOMi 23:09 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
wish I had sold usdcad near 1.1850, maybe monday morning, have a peacefull one..

warsaw TOMi 23:05 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
holding short $$$, nice w/e all ;-)

Hong Kong Qindex 21:07 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Barcelona pipi 17:05 GMT - Use the Archive function on the top of this page or check at qindex dot com.

Gen dk 19:50 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

BEIRUT MK 18:42 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
close short eurusd from 1.2977 at 1.2910
close short audusd from 0.7742 at 0.7730

manchester mk 18:26 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
thanks GVI John

GVI john 18:14 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
No precise close. Figure its all done by 17:00 EST (22:00 GMT).

manchester mk 18:10 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
what time is the US close please ?

USA BAY 17:31 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Despite a sizeable 122.00 barrier expiring and the US data slate coming in ...
Despite a sizeable 122.00 barrier expiring and the US data slate coming in on the positive side, [USD/JPY] has failed to make any headway through offers in the 121.60s, suggesting plenty more structures remain in place to thwart a chase on stops above the figure. The Jpy has held relatively firm on the crosses suggesting the G7 concerns have prompted a scaling back of carry trade activity, but the Yen faces some key data releases in the coming week on retail sales plus household earnings and spending. A soft set of data expected for all these could provide the spur for the G7 caution to be set aside for the moment and see the Jpy again on the slide.

LKWD JJ 17:21 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 15:30 GMT January 26, 2007
keeping a short leashe on this one so not to get strangled by it.
=======
out at b/e as held tight stops. maybe too tight as she runs up and away!

USA BAY 17:18 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
The Pound has been under pressure across the board during the day, CTA accoun...
The Pound has been under pressure across the board during the day, CTA accounts and a German bank standout sellers of [CABLE] to erode Asian central bank bidding ahead of 1.9600, while Eur/Gbp has lifted back towards 0.66 despite reportedly good sized fund sales. Gbp/Jpy is also on the wane, suggesting the G7/Jpy chatter is continuing to weigh on carry trade activity. Stops are reported to be in place under 1.9560, these looking vulnerable in the face of the Usd's broad advance and a retreat in UK rate hike expectations after the unexpected 5-4 Jan MPC vote. Outright yield will continue to offer the Gbp a broad prop on the crosses, with good offer interest around 0.66 in Eur/Gbp forming a strong hurdle to further losses.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USA BAY 17:17 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/USD] has been pressed into reportedly good sized 0.7720 bids amid the U...
[AUD/USD] has been pressed into reportedly good sized 0.7720 bids amid the Usd's post-durable goods orders rise, while sizable bidding in Aud/Nzd after bids in the upper 1.10s (1.1080 cited as now holding more bids) have added some support to the pair. A US prime name and UK clearer have been bidders into the dip, while sovereign bids are touted amongst the 0.7720 mix. Offers are in place at 1.1150 with stops above, local contacts again recommending a sell on strength approach amid the fallout from the below f/c Australian Q4 CPI and upped RBNZ hawkish line. The loss of the noted 0.7760 level in the pair has soured sentiment considerably, suggesting offer interest is now in place ahead of here, while stops are in place under the noted 0.7720 area.

Philadelphia Caba 17:12 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
aussie 7700-20 holds so far..talk of good bids..

Barcelona pipi 17:05 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
can someone give me the URL where the analisys has been posted? Thanks

USA BAY 17:01 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Your prediction for the high for GBP/JPY was very accurate. Good job. Thank you so much for that. GT/GL
_______________________________________________

Have a good weekeend everyone. See you guys next week. Thanks everyone for your contributions.

USA BAY 16:57 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Thanks for all the analysis you posted. A great contribution to the forex community here. It has been very beneficial. THANKS AGAIN.

Cannes Oil man 16:53 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Yes sure bratislavia.

Bratislava 16:30 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man.
I have log of the error it gives, and although I used to be programmer, I can't figure out what is wrong.
Is there a chance I could send you this error somehow (can't post it, it's too big) ? If so, could you have Jay send me your email address ?
thx a lot.

Cannes Oil man 16:23 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Bratislavia : should.

Cannes Oil man 16:20 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
88%? how do you calculate ?

Essex Charles 16:19 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
chances that GBPUSD will close the next week above 2.01 are currently above 88.8%

Cannes Oil man 16:18 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Will rebuy cable to 80 ..if it reruns down..I however fear it won't give me this chance..we will see.

Cannes Oil man 16:15 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cable doing fine, taking half TP here this time..from 70.

Vienna GD 16:10 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
FFT GR 16:03 ... thx GR!

FFT GR 16:03 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
G7: Feb 9/10 in Essen

Vienna GD 16:00 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Please does anybody know when the next G7 meeting is?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:44 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:15 GMT January 26, 2007
EUR/GBP : The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.6565 - 0.6598. A projected supporting point is expected at 0.6548 and a projected resistant point is positioning at 0.6607.


Hong Kong Qindex 06:36 GMT January 25, 2007
EUR/GBP : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market has potential to vibrate around 0.6606 with an expected magnitude of 0.6517 - 0.6695. The current expected trading ranges are 0.6517 - 0.6561 - 0.6606 - 0.6628 - 0.6695.

UK Alex 15:43 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Treasury's Adams Calls Japan's Economic Policy `Appropriate'

Philadelphia Caba 15:38 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD E1bn 1.3000 Expiry Monday.
An estimated E1bn 1.3000 option strike rolls off at Monday"s 10am EST NY cut, alongside 1.3050 and 1.3155 strikes.

Bratislava 15:36 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man
Hi, do you know if yout range f. you posted on GVI works also through proxy ? I mean if you don't have direct connection and have to use proxy..
Thanks.

RIC fxq 15:31 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
4cast:

* 26 Jan 07: 15:09(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows - USD touches new lows in wake of strong New Home Sales

USD has been grinding higher for most of the N. American trading day and the test of resting bids in the 1.2885-90 range in advance of the housing data suggests there are still EUR's to be sold. US New Home Sales for Dec single family home sales came at 1.120 mln units, exceeding expectations and justifying the USD buying into the data release. But, after the first knee jerk buying, the market appeared to be saturated for the moment and FX traders are watching bond yields to set the tone for the remainder of the afternoon. The bounce in USD back up through 1.2900 comes along with talk, no substance, of sovereign buying at the lows. M.B.

LKWD JJ 15:30 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
keeping a short leashe on this one so not to get strangled by it.

LKWD JJ 15:28 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
if you see the $y yesterday hit the 20 and boom , figuring cable might follow same footprints.

UK Alex 15:27 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
CTA and model accounts have all been on the bid in this three-day dollar rally and are probably covering ahead of the weekend.

HK REVDAX 15:26 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
IMVHO...once the US election is over, the government will raise interest rate to combat inflation. The current drop of oil and the inactivities in gold are precursor of an expected economic slow-down.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:24 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 15:22 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

Bahrain BAH1 15:24 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 15:22 GMT January 26, 2007
Bahrain BAH1 15:13 GMT January 26, 2007
think cable will move lower from here... take care
=====================================
dont forget its friday and where mkt was and is now. new lows but spikes back up due to profit taking of the shorts and 20 ma at these levels 19570-80 area.

Yep...You are right mate.....very diff. market...2 times we got new lows and it hold. take care and good luck to you all.

UK Alex 15:23 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 15:19 GMT January 26, 2007
That's true. Buy-to-let market has soared recently. Bradford & Bingley and Paragon are big lenders in this area of the market in the UK and I will be watching their respected performances closely.

hk revdax 15:23 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Technical analysis suggests that the British airline strike will be successfully resolved over the weekends and GBP will gap up next Monday morning...LOL

LKWD JJ 15:22 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain BAH1 15:13 GMT January 26, 2007
think cable will move lower from here... take care
=====================================
dont forget its friday and where mkt was and is now. new lows but spikes back up due to profit taking of the shorts and 20 ma at these levels 19570-80 area.

Mumbai NS 15:22 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Gud day Doc Q gr8 as usual u almost predicted this oil slick quite accurately carry on Sir the good posts gl gt

HK REVDAX 15:19 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:14 //I went for a new housing complex reception today next HK and discovered most housing units are bought for speculation. With the British airlines strikes going on, the government is getting a message: there is no camouflage for artificial economic prosperity.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:18 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : I like to see that it can reach 1.2600 today or early next week.

Napoli DC 15:18 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
tks Doc

Hong Kong Qindex 15:16 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.2878.

UK Alex 15:15 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
I mean 7% increase for 2007.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:15 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Napoli DC 15:12 GMT - Yes, 1.2878.

ldn 15:15 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
gbp stops hit again Oily?

UK Alex 15:14 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 15:09 GMT January 26, 2007
Maybe or maybe not. UK RICS are forecasting 7% y/y.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:14 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 15:12 GMT - It will delay the time for EUR/USD to go lower.

Bahrain BAH1 15:13 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
think cable will move lower from here... take care

Napoli DC 15:12 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Sorry, dr. Q
did you mean 1,2878?

HK REVDAX 15:12 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:00 //What will happen if Euro holds above 12978?

Gen dk 15:10 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk revdax 15:09 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:05 //If my past experiences can be of useful guides, the housing market all over the world has seen the top!

Mumbai NS 15:06 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Somemore lower stops waiting to be cleaned gl gt

UK Alex 15:05 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Even with the stabilization in sales, housing probably won't contribute to economic growth this year, economists said. ``Demand has done okay but still builders have a little bit of a lingering inventory issue to work off,'' said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``Residential construction is still going to be a slight drag.''

madrid mm 15:04 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 14:57 GMT January 26, 2007


maybe, the dark force
8)

London RW 15:04 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B 08:21 GMT January 26, 2007
i personally think euro/yen is a sell rally today 15700/50

Great call J.B.....

Cannes Oil man 15:02 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Bought gbp at 70..

Hong Kong Qindex 15:00 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.2978.

LKWD JJ 14:59 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
now 3

san miniato ab 14:59 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
housing very good + 1,12 mln

LKWD JJ 14:58 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
$Y shouldve been doing better than this with 2 peices of news in its favor. imho short opinion

HK REVDAX 14:57 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:54 //Who are 'thet"? The manchurians in the Hollywood movies?

madrid mm 14:54 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
are thet taking euro-usd down b4 taking it up again ?
8-)

HK REVDAX 14:53 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Anyone dares to buy Euro at this level for a rebound?

Hong Kong KS 14:50 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
I'm new to this forum. I shorted EUR/USD at 1.2990 on Jan 24 on assumption that EUR had topped at around 1.3050 by Jan 23 for its rebounce since Jan 12 on daily chart. Expect EUR to go down to below 1.2750, at least, by week of Feb 12. My stop is 1.3050.

Mtl JP 14:50 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Data release risk event:

15:00GMT December New Home Sales mrkt: 1052K last: 1047K
15:00GMT December New Home Sales (MoM) mrkt: 0.5% last: 3.4%

Cannes Oil man 14:49 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
ldn

GBP been hit.

LKWD JJ 14:46 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
oilman looks like strategy has shifted to sell gbp overnight been a good atm machine.

ldn 14:45 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP stops hit oily or have shifted them?

Varna Bulgaro 14:40 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
do u see EUR/USD below 1.2888 today

St. Pete Islander 14:39 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:59 GMT January 26, 2007

Friday Food Fight ..... now there's a proper description. Hope you are avoiding the mess. GT

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:37 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
I'm the last person to speak - but it looks like one of those fridays when the trend is set in LDN session and it just runs along in the next week...

UK Alex 14:34 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
From a technical viewpoint capping could also be due to potential double-top in $ index. We are also seeing some yen buying ahead of the weekend as can be seen in gbp and euro crosses.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:33 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Anything below 238.34 is not a good sign for GBP/USD.

New Albany mb 14:32 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Dollar getting hammered? don,t think so. more dollar strength looks instore for next week

Bahrain BAH1 14:31 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Hi frnds....US data after 30m. GL

RIC fxq 14:31 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
$ getting hammered?????????? 30 pips in USDJPY and 40 or so in CHF is hammering?

rotflma

Hong Kong Qindex 14:31 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Anything below 156.62 is not a good sign for EUR/USD again.

Cannes Oil man 14:26 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
The cap is coming from $/Y , with the names selling it..

Well this is what 2 or 3rd friday, US$ has great data , and finishes down...
Got long NZD at 34..stops 10...
Poor $ , getting hammered while it "should" go up.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:15 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Anything below 121.22 can easily trigger a sell order from alll the yen crosses.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:13 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : It has a potential to move higher today.

warsaw TOMi 14:12 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:10 GMT January 26, 2007

wudn't be us wud it?;-)
gl/gt

Hong Kong Qindex 14:11 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : It is still in a bad shape.

Cannes Oil man 14:10 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
To really be out of danger i'd say euro would need to regain 1.2950..Now it could make a new low anytime , as both sides are fighting , soooner or later one side runs out of money!

Hong Kong Qindex 14:09 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is under pressure and the market has a good chance to trade below 1.9500.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:08 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : I am expecting the market to pick up activity around 1.2520 and then move higher later today.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:05 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is vibrating around [1.2906] with an expected magnitude of 1.2887 - 1.2925. It has a potential to tackle the lower barrier at 1.2949 // 1.2868.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:20 GMT January 26, 2007
EUR/USD : The market is consolidating within the ranges of 1.2906 - 1.2925 - 1.2944 in the Aisian session. I am bias on the downside and if the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.2878, the lower barrier of my daily cycle at 1.2849 // 1.2868 is going to be challenged. Use the monthly cycle charts for reference when the market is trading below 1.2900.


... 1.2830 - 1.2849 // 1.2868 - 1.2887 - [1.2906] - 1.2925 - 1.2944 // 1.2963 - 1.2982 ...


Hong Kong Qindex 10:26 GMT January 25, 2007
EUR/USD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is still trapped in the range of 1.2878 - 1.3142. The current expected trading ranges are 1.2614* - 1.2746 - 1.2812 - 1.2878 - [1.3011]* - 1.3143

san miniato ab 14:02 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
i see and also eur usd is doing very well respect dgos data. Do u think we bottomed again Oil in eur usd or are u trying to use this fast bounce to profit before a new lower move? (that s will help me to know if u think abt a toppish usd yen thanks)

Cannes Oil man 13:59 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Stops to entries on GBP$ 1.9589.

Cannes Oil man 13:58 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Lots of big names selling $/Y , miniato ab..Open fight, and $ seems to be loosing again...Sold it across board, even though wonderful numbers, but again , this guys dictate where it goes.

delray beach RMN 13:58 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
agree 122.40 yen could be in the cards but the g7 has clearly stated that intrest rates should be in there prospective order and the carry trade which has occured over the last years is definitely putting the yen in a position to unwinde like a rattlesnake bites. when you chart usd/jpy in a triangle formation it is very toppish and could easily run down to the 118, 115 arena within days, considering japans manipualtion of this currency hours, so be weary usually if everyone in the market thinks somenthing is a no brainer, the big boys get a rel laugh at fish and drain the river

san miniato ab 13:54 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Anybody agree on the fact that due to barrier expiring today in NY at 122 Usd Yen remain below key res at 121,80? Think that in case of any further possibility abt possibility to include fx, and specially Yen, on G7 fx agenda we will see soon a test of 122,40 (this evening after expire or after sunday s nite japan ret sal if this will show another disappointing number). Appreciate any comments tia and gl

Cannes Oil man 13:53 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Bought gbp , bought euro ...Stops under lows..

GL.

Cannes Oil man 13:50 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Gold bugs are winning...CB's are taking their role to the letter :

Price stability..Locking us in 1.28--1.30 range.

hk ab 13:49 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
what's the number?

Cannes Oil man 13:42 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Smart selling $/Y .

London Misha 13:36 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Hearing real money selling over 1.2900

hk ab 13:35 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Misha, there could be delayed effect.

Cannes Oil man 13:35 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
The "names" bidding again.

London Misha 13:33 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
fantastic U.S. numbers but all back where we started!

ZUG Crédit Suisse; CH-6301 Zug; Clearing 4823 13:32 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   


LOL

NYC 13:31 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:19 GMT January 26, 2007

maybe in your case she is not like the rest, maybe yes

warsaw TOMi 13:31 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
oh yes,
long cable 9575
long €/$ 2890
short $/chf 2555

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:25 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 13:11 GMT //
you are absolutely right - I have this idea in mind and there was also an article posted here soem time ago.. that once the media starts talking about smtg it marks a moment of reversal - I watched this in our local stock market and I think it correlates also with global market..

Oil Man - tak tochno! ochen horosho tui govorish po russki..

Cannes Oil man 13:24 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Aye , NZDJPY will soon pay the price , my NZD$ short is starting to show good signs of life...And it's just the start...Just look at NZDJPY to see the possibilities.

Cannes Oil man 13:19 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
только придурки говорят о том, чего не знают...

GENEVA DS 13:11 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
IS THE PARTY WITH CARRY TRADES OVER...?

Just too funny in todays press here in Switzerland, I have read in very conservative newspaper (NZZ) , the first time an articel about CARRY TRADES.... I think the autor has not known 2 month ago how to spell carry trades but obviously in Davos these days it is the TOPIC.... we as traders have to be aware, that now THE WHOLE PLANET tries to catch a deal for nothing.... I personally would not be surprised to see just these days or these hours a dying carry trade market and some great blood shedding can now begin... So my humble opinion would be... may be long some JPY against eventually some KIWI or POUNDS.... lets have fun .. good trades

Bahrain BAH1 13:06 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Italy Finance Minister says expects FX to be on G7 agenda

Moscow Slava 13:01 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 12:56 GMT January 26, 2007

there is no sense in looking for little sense in Russia. too many claim to be Russialogs because of one time import of Made in Russia love.

Cannes Oil man 12:56 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
There is little sense in Russia buying gold , or gas or Oil....They are producer, you don't need to be involved in politics to understand this facts.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:46 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
wow bratushka - ne nado takie slova govorit...

Moscow Misha De Bear(s) 12:43 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
The one to claim knowledge about Russian politics/economics is the twin brother and sister of the Chinese shouting 1-2-3 follow me and get rich.

only a censored calls Russian involved moves, only stupid follows censored.


manila soon to be auckland bj 12:38 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
greetings. i am not a currency trader but i need the expert advice of everyone here regarding nzd as i am moving to nz.
what is the outlook for nzd for 2007 to 2008?
last year, i had been reading that they were thinking that it would go down to .56 usd but now we see it at near .70?
any thoughts?
thanks in advance to all.

hk ab 12:35 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
MArtin, but oilman did mention the story from Russia as well.

hk ab 12:21 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
mkt too exciting and everyone quiet.

Atlanta South 12:07 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin/
It is always good to read your views. Have a great weekend.
GT

Aus Stu 12:04 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Aus Stu 12:00 GMT January 26, 2007
* s/l 1.2584

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:03 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:56 GMT January 26, 2007
Thank you for the kind words. I hope you have a great and safe weekend too. Peace and GT

Gold Coast Martin 12:02 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
A Reminder to put all this Russian nonsense into perspective,,
Gold Coast Martin 06:40 GMT January 15, 2007

FWIW....same goes for gold..Russia have NEVER been buyers of gold. They produce it and try to settle the majority of their running sovereign debt with most of it. As they did a while ago with the majority of their Paris club debt. The rest they sell on the current market ..They DO NOT buy it at current prices.


gold coast Martin 14:46 GMT November 27, 2006


GVI john 14:38 GMT November 27, 2006
i think i mentioned here over 12 months ago...Russian central Bank never been a big seller of USDs to euro due to the fact that all import duties payable by russian importers to the government is priced in euros...so the russian government has got a great euro generating system....and no need to dip into its USD RESERVES to buy euros...

London Gooner 12:01 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 11:49 GMT January 26, 2007

1.9650 now 1st resistance. Then 9710. 9750.
Should only be short term trade so move stop quickly too if you wish
to cost I you entered a few minutes ago.

ps: Swissie daily interesting.

Aus Stu 12:00 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Aus Stu 09:48 GMT January 12, 2007
Don't often trade Swissie but currently eyeing 1.2550/70 area @ daily bear t/line, is 50% of 1.3240 - 1.1878 move which is proving fairly solid resistance & also lines up very close to my daily R2. Little spike up after 13.30 GMT data may be a nice r/r, would work with some of the recent jawboning from SNB lately as well. As usual, market will decide, just my thoughts fwiw
GT
____________________________________
Been eyeballing this for a while, shorting here s/l 1.2574, probably just a roll of the dice with 13.30gmt data but see what happens.
GT

Cannes Oil man 12:00 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
It's 3 entries on $chf so not bad..Ready to buy more at 20 or on datas...will see.

Cannes Oil man 11:59 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Closed $chf at 54....+60..

Just keeping NZD before datas.

Cannes Oil man 11:58 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Closed the short gbp$ from 70..

Went long and out with 2 pips.

72..Not bad for changing the "shirt"

Atlanta South 11:56 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL/
Ref 08:59: Tks for your early morning post as it is always
nice to read your views. Have a great weekend. GT

hk ab 11:56 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain BAH1 11:28 GMT January 26, 2007


No mentioning of gold? That will be disappointing though....

Philadelphia Caba 11:55 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
bucket shops are reversing positions from short$ to long$..(?)

Mumbai NS 11:51 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Looks more SOB now gl gt

ldn pw 11:49 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 11:20 GMT January 26, 2007
Hong Kong Dom 08:54 GMT January 26, 2007
London Gooner 08:47 GMT January 26, 2007

Any levels for bounce up please Gooner ? Thanks

Philadelphia Caba 11:44 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
eur/chf:
sell 1.6200-225 or 1.6300-10 with 40 pips s/l ... good r/r medium term trade

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:44 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
No need to see who is the greatest here because in the FX market no one is. Eur/usd pair is testing the support talked about before so it is time to move stops to entry and save the move from loses if it bounces from the support now IMHO. Peace and GT

Philadelphia Caba 11:39 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard"s warning that NZ is vulnerable to financial shocks (Reuters)

Bahrain BAH1 11:28 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
RUSSIA C.BANK CHAIRMAN SAYS APPROX STRUCTURE OF FOREX RESERVES 50 PCT DOLLARS, 40 PCT EUROS, 10 PCT POUNDS, 1 PCT YEN
RUSSIA C.BANK PLANS TO FURTHER DIVERSIFY STRUCTURE OF CURRENCY RESERVES - CHAIRMAN

hk ab 11:27 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
tight s/l on euro longs.

hk ab 11:22 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
I also buy some here euro. 1.2904.

UK Alex 11:22 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Mizuho's Nicole Elliott writes:

EUR/YEN
More sharp intra-day moves with yesterday’s ‘spike low’ acting as a counterbalance to Wednesday’s ‘bearish engulfing’ candle. This underlines the fact that powerful forces are looking for direction. We remain within normal retracement parameters. Do not jump the gun and assume candles will be bearish at the end of the day or the end of the week/month. For this morning allow for consolidation between 156.50 and 157.50 and be aware that this pair is likely to be a lot more difficult to trade over the next two weeks. We still feel that dips are probably buying opportunities for another probe higher.

London Gooner 11:20 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Dom 08:54 GMT January 26, 2007
London Gooner 08:47 GMT January 26, 2007
-

1.9580 or below for bounce on Cable. play short term positive divergence. Stop should be under 1.9535

Cannes Oil man 11:16 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Some cb buying light again..

ldn pw 11:14 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 10:05 GMT January 26, 2007
Toronto MRC 10:01 GMT January 26, 2007
CT Cris 09:41 GMT January 26, 2007

Chris - can you help with upside and downside levels please ie downside for durable goods and upside for housing data? Thanks.

Cannes Oil man 11:13 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 10:20 GMT January 26, 2007


Well , Let's see if your countryman don't buy again 1.2868 , and ruin the show.

Gen dk 11:09 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

van Gecko 10:20 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Oil man.. speculative trades or corporate hedging range noises is still "PorkChopTitist Trading".. may be some of those names had breeded an army of rare "trading monkeys" who can consistently pick the daily range highs & lows locked up inside their trading room..

may be 2005's 1.25 equality is now 1.27.. where the Conti proxy twins kiss & say goodbye to each other in 2007.. ? ;)

ab.. no change for your yellow metal as it is still capped in range & struggling to stay above the 21 & 50week ma..


Hong Kong Qindex 10:15 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.6565 - 0.6598. A projected supporting point is expected at 0.6548 and a projected resistant point is positioning at 0.6607.


Hong Kong Qindex 06:36 GMT January 25, 2007
EUR/GBP : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market has potential to vibrate around 0.6606 with an expected magnitude of 0.6517 - 0.6695. The current expected trading ranges are 0.6517 - 0.6561 - 0.6606 - 0.6628 - 0.6695.

Toronto MRC 10:12 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Thursday housing data sucked. I don't see existing H.S. being much better. The bond market signals higher rates which could dip housing down another level down the road hence weakness in the DOW. of course imho

CT Cris 10:05 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 10:01 GMT January 26, 2007
CT Cris 09:41 GMT January 26, 2007
=======
housing data will take it up .

Toronto MRC 10:01 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:41 GMT January 26, 2007

Why confidence in durable goods data? I'm looking for a miss and lousy housing data.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:00 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is consolidating between 121.34 - 121.66 in Asian session. I am bias on the downside when the market is trading below 121.22 and the monthly cycle analysis should be used as a reference.


... 120.40 ... 120.71 ... 121.19 // 121.34 - 121.50 - 121.66 // 121.82 ... 122.13 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:25 GMT January 25, 2007
USD/JPY : As shown in the projected profile of my monthly cycle probability chart the market is heading towards 119.10. The current expected trading ranges are [118.23]* - 119.10 - 119.53 - 119.96 - 120.83* // 122.13.

london pw 10:00 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 08:47 GMT January 26, 2007

Gooner do you have any levels I may work to as to where the downside in gbp/usd may be ending (wave). I am long and looking to holding if not much further to go....thanks.

Cannes Oil man 09:57 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Anyways i think could see an equality , gecko :

1.2725 ...$CHF ///EURO$ !!

Cannes Oil man 09:53 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 09:21 GMT January 26, 2007

Gecko, there's not only speculative trades done on forex...Remember corporates needs to do daily things..

warsaw TOMi 09:47 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
loosing faith in 2830-50, squaring $ longs, starting shorting it..

gl/gt

warsaw TOMi 09:45 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
tx Cris

CT Cris 09:41 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd may rise slowly during the coming hours.
durable goods data will take it down again.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:40 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : the market is consolidating in the range of 0.7727 - 0.7758. A projected supporting point is located at 0.7680 and a projected resistant point is expected at 0.7789. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy when the market is trading below 0.7755.

... 0.7649 ... 0.7680 ... 0.7711 // 0.7727 - 0.7742 - 0.7758 // ... 0.7789 ...


Hong Kong Qindex 10:40 GMT January 25, 2007
AUD/USD : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is vibrating around 0.7798 with an expected magnitude of 0.7755 - 0.7841. The current expected trading ranges are 0.7670* - 0.7755 - 0.7798 - 0.7841 - [0.7927]*

Gen dk 09:37 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 09:31 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Gecko, do you still seeing the accident on gold?

currencies have already started to decouple with commodities.

van Gecko 09:21 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Oil man 08:40.. may be those names need more time to prefect the "Art of PorkChopTitist Trading" ?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:20 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is consolidating within the ranges of 1.2906 - 1.2925 - 1.2944 in the Aisian session. I am bias on the downside and if the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.2878, the lower barrier of my daily cycle at 1.2849 // 1.2868 is going to be challenged. Use the monthly cycle charts for reference when the market is trading below 1.2900.


... 1.2830 - 1.2849 // 1.2868 - 1.2887 - [1.2906] - 1.2925 - 1.2944 // 1.2963 - 1.2982 ...


Hong Kong Qindex 10:26 GMT January 25, 2007
EUR/USD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is still trapped in the range of 1.2878 - 1.3142. The current expected trading ranges are 1.2614* - 1.2746 - 1.2812 - 1.2878 - [1.3011]* - 1.3143.


Athens MK 09:13 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$:
Weekly momentum is still bearish and we are close to last weeks low......

Daily is showing lower lows and still has potential to go more down...

Dealer charts are showing us at a pivot point at the moment but if price action can stabilize at the area then a swing up would give us at least a target of 1.9710...... before potentially heading towards 1.9260 longer term.....

Athens MK 09:06 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
ldn jp 08:43 GMT January 26, 2007

Taking a look I would say by tonight we should have 1.9710 touched as long as 1.9593 holds...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:59 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
The Friday food fights come early this week I see. Short term view eur/usd pair: The bears must take out this next support (2890-2900) quick or momentum will die. Once support is tested then stops can be moved to entry point. For now we are still in dangerous waters with the tight range. Only the nimble and quick can profit without getting hurt badly in these waters IMHO. Peace and GT

Mumbai NS 08:57 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
This was on the cards watch 1.9570 if broken 1.9458 culd print soon gl gt

Hong Kong Dom 08:54 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 08:47 GMT January 26, 2007
Cable.
15 mins / 1H charts in positive divergence since 24 Jan. Decline from 9916 in 5th wave. Risk is shallow wave 5 for shorts before bounce.
------------------------------------------------------------

Gooner, may I know your range on Stg today, your view had a great valve to me. Thanks

Syd 08:48 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cable In Danger Of Posting Key-Week Reversal
Cable has been under pressure since it's short-lived move above 1.99, and HBOS says a close for the day below 1.9572 would see a key-week reversal for the rate. This, says the bank, would be a signal of a potential medium-term top



Goldman Sachs recommends pulling out of EUR/GBP longs due to the lack of momentum as European data has come in weaker-than-expected. But, the bank remains negative toward GBP and says it will be looking for new opportunities to go short. "We maintain a view that weak data could have a significant impact on the GBP given current expectations and positioning in the foreign exchange market," the bank says

London Gooner 08:47 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cable.
15 mins / 1H charts in positive divergence since 24 Jan. Decline from 9916 in 5th wave. Risk is shallow wave 5 for shorts before bounce.

Cannes Oil man 08:44 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
NYC - Wellington Hotel guest relations 08:34 GMT January 26, 2007

Don't understand that one, not sure if it's bad or good eheh.

ldn jp 08:43 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 12:27 GMT January 24, 2007

Athens MK I would be interested in your thoughts today.....thanks

Gen dk 08:41 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cannes Oil man 08:40 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Gecko, the names could hold the ranges if they really wanted too...

However the good news is some previous bull names are now going out..

Would be nice to buy E$ at 1.27xx , they are probably thinking ?:)

NYC - Wellington Hotel guest relations 08:34 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man,

you remind a customer of ours who used to sit on the chair in the room and sing "king in the castle, king in the castle"

high five

Cannes Oil man 08:30 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
For supports under 1.9580 , we see a big stumble in GBP...Though the brunt of the dive should be in EURO..(EUR/GBP)..

I had range :

1.9698 ---1.9578...So only a move sub 1.9570 will be a "out of range" day...It's friday, let's see some action.

U.K. J.B 08:29 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 08:23 GMT January 26, 2007

I was not referring to you. I have no idea how many times you post as i do not visit the Forum that frequently. Probably once a week if that for a occasional read.

All the best and nice week-end to you also...

U.K. J.B 08:26 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Food for thought. Euro was at 1.30 this time yesterday and looking to break higher. Now at 1.2900 and looking to break lower... What has changed??? Bond yields perhaps...

Watch those CB'S they will be hovering...

Syd 08:26 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Forex Focus: Fears Of Snap Back In Swiss Franc
With yield differentials still working against it, the Swiss franc looks likely to continue sliding, despite verbal warnings from the Swiss National Bank. However, some are warning there could be sudden snap back - especially if global liquidity levels start to dry up and investors start to lose their appetite for risk. "In such an environment, low yielding currencies perform well and hence we expect the euro/Swiss franc to see some near-term downside pressure," said Sharada Salvanathan, a currency strategist with BNP Paribas in Singapore.
Jan Poser, chief economist at Bank Sarasin in Zurich, is similarly wary of counting too heavily on further franc losses.
"A sudden reversal of carry trades on the back of higher market volatility is likely to lead to significant upward pressure on the franc soon," he said.
For the time being, however, the general consensus is that the franc will suffer even though SNB President Jean-Pierre Roth has warned the market that weakness in the currency goes against "sound fundamentals."

So, where does the upside risk come from?

BNP Paribas' Selvanathan suggests it will come from China.
With data from Beijing Thursday showing even stronger than expected growth in the fourth quarter of last year - up at 10.7% compared with the 10.5% forecast - and with inflation rising sharply to 2.9% in December from 1.9% in November, China could have even more of a global influence than anticipated. "While it is hard to decipher whether this is start of a new trend, the strength of the Chinese economy will suggest to the market that China is no longer exporting deflation," Selvanathan said.
And this in turn, will likely bring a reduction in risk appetite.
U.S. inflation remaining above the Fed(eral Reserve)'s 'comfort zone,' the European Central Bank continuing to hound over inflation pressures, and more recently, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggesting that it is about to pull the trigger, offer evidence that liquidity conditions could narrow further and hence affect the appetite for risk," the BNP Paribas' strategist argued. Poser sees two other factors working in the franc's favor once the turnaround comes: Switzerland's better net foreign asset position, relative to the euro zone, and the country's much lower inflation levels.
The franc will once again rise against the euro "due to a strong net foreign asset position and favorable inflation differences," he said.

Cannes Oil man 08:26 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Took more $chf at 1.2517..

Will remove if the "names" start pushing euro otherway.

Toronto MRC 08:25 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 08:23 GMT January 26, 2007

Cannes I didn't catch that JB was pointing at you.

Hong Kong Ahe 08:24 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Euro is diving in morning session of Europe. Europhiles w'd be better take concern not to counter trade it till afternoon session of Europe. Level, better see Gecko's yesterday post. GLGT.

Cannes Oil man 08:23 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
JB , have a good one, but it sounded like i m posting bs all day..While what i post are my trades...They are numerous , i am aware of it..But each as it's own trading style.

Good weekend.

U.K. J.B 08:21 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
i personally think euro/yen is a sell rally today 15700/50

Syd 08:21 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B 08:19 GMT hi, wasnt your comment that was offence, it was relevant GT.

U.K. J.B 08:19 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
My dear friends on the Forum. I think you have all mis-understood what i was saying. I was not having a snipe at any one , just making a general comment. This is exactly why quality people have left. You all continue to up date and do as you please , you are probably all fantastic traders. I wish you all well and from time to time i would like to add the occasional comment which i hope adds value . Nice w/e

Cannes Oil man 08:15 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Looks like again we have "names" buying 1.29..

Grr..Ranges are a pain.

Syd 08:13 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:09 GMT have to agree with you , really cant understand why people do this , must be they have had a bad trade or an argument with their partner,

van Gecko 08:12 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Sovereign "bids" are not created equal.. they also come in various size & temperaments & are just as capable in h'issing good dollars against the wind as the fishes..
Sovereign traders for the Mongolian CB once lost all of their forex reserves.. guess horse trading is a lot less risky then trading forex..

Cannes Oil man 08:12 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
What does that mean , JB?

Should i just not say , i think Euro and GBP , etc will stumble for the day, just cause i was bullish the previous day?

Just shorted GBP 70 with 25 SL.

To me what i post is quality ? if it is quantity it is because i DO quantity...if one guy wants to trade one per week he can do so, i myself try to catch 10 to 1K pips on each trade with reasonable risks (dont use definite stops, use amounts)..

Toronto MRC 08:11 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 07:29 GMT January 26, 2007

Agree just not as much reason as before. As I said before Japan March 31 year end will tempt companies to juice earnings through currency gains.

hk ab 08:09 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
The arguing on oilman is totally unnecessary. He's firm and posted wtih consistency. Just wonder why pearls of the forum need to be bothered.

U.K. J.B 07:57 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Quality not quantity re your trading and comments on the Forum. Otherwise the Forum will lose it's appeal rapidly. GL.

Cannes Oil man 07:29 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
The problem being the GBP , being still bullish..Hard to sell that one , when it has every reasons to go up.

Syd 07:21 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Fed, Investors Diverge On Interest Rates
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
By Greg Ip
WASHINGTON -- Surprisingly solid economic growth hasn't only persuaded investors that the Fed won't cut interest rates, it also has prompted some to predict that an overheating economy will trigger rate increases before long.

Fed officials don't appear to share that view -- at least not yet. They believe the housing downturn has yet to show its full impact on the economy. As it does, they expect growth to remain slow and unemployment to rise, hastening the recent downtrend in inflation, which is now running roughly from 2.2% to 2.6%, excluding food and energy. Indeed, officials are more comfortable about inflation than they were two months ago.

In spite of that, the Fed, at the end of its policy meeting Wednesday, is likely to reaffirm its "bias" toward raising rates rather than lowering them, citing inflation concerns. It is almost certain to leave its target for short-term interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. The Fed has maintained that target and its "tightening bias" since June.

There are several reasons the Fed is likely to signal inflation concerns for at least one more meeting. Some officials believe that even if underlying inflation is coming down, it is still unacceptably high. Because they are uncertain how much further it will fall, they believe the Fed, to keep the public from expecting higher inflation, should be biased toward raising rates.

The second, and potentially more important reason, is that the job market, unlike the rest of the economy, is stronger than expected. The longer unemployment stays low, the greater the likelihood that fear of accelerating wages and prices will prompt officials to contemplate an interest-rate increase.

Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a speech this week that there is "an emerging puzzle in the data: Why is the labor market apparently going gangbusters, while growth . . . has turned in only a middling performance on average in recent quarters?" Her puzzlement is shared by some of her colleagues.

When the economy grows at its long-term "potential" rate, which is thought to be a little under 3%, it creates just enough jobs to employ new entrants to the labor market, and the unemployment rate is steady. But last year, as growth fell below 3% in the spring, the unemployment rate declined steadily, from 4.7% in the first quarter to 4.5% in the fourth.

Ms. Yellen said one worrisome explanation may be that either the economy's potential growth rate is notably slower than 3%, or that growth is stronger than the official data now show. In either case, the economy could face tighter capacity constraints than first thought, stoking inflation pressure.


Madrid mm 07:07 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
US Senate Banking Panel will hold hearing on US Treasury FX report, US-China issues on January 31.

WSJ Fed Watcher Greg Ip: The Fed, at the end of its policy meeting Wednesday, is likely to reaffirm its "bias" toward raising rates rather than lowering them, citing inflation concerns.

EUR/JPY hit 157.45 hi frm pre CPI lows 156.75, before large UK clearers/ Dutch, funds sold large, pushing it back below 157 as Shiozaki comments that currencies play a part in BoJ policy, indicate concerns over impact of weak JPY, mindful of possible complaints from other G7 into G7 Feb. Huge 121.85/ 122 options still capping.

EUR/USD under pressure, hit 1-wk lows 1.2917 on Thurs, weighed by concerns over France - Germany division over EU Treaty, French domestic politics. Speculation of Sovereign bids at 1.2900-20, but stoploss orders on break of 1.29/ 1.2880, offers at 1.2950-60.

GBP weighed as GBP/JPY under fresh sales after hitting post CPI high 239, but EUR/ GBP sales supporting it. Market cautious of more downside in Cable, GBP/JPY after the BoE MPC split 5-4 vote, with offers in GBP/UDS at 1.9700 handle, EUR/GBP bids 0.6550-60.

AUD still under pressure with talks of funds interest still to sell the Aussie, offers now at 0.7770-80, and stoploss orders now below 0.77 handle., USD and FX eye further market moving comments from Davos WEF, US Durable goods and Homes sales, and US bond yields

Nikkei -36.37pts at 17,421, while JGBs lower post CPI, hurt by rising US yields. 10-yr yield +0.02% at 1.680%,.

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 121.17/121.64, EUR/USD 1.299/1.2945, GBP/USD 1.9629/1.9664, USD/CHF 1.2477/1.2507, AUD/USD 0.7725/0.7747, NZD/USD 0.6956/0.6980.

Cannes Oil man 07:07 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 06:45 GMT January 26, 2007

it's this , or we're stuck for another week in the same range.

san miniato ab 06:45 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 05:52 GMT January 26, 2007
hi my frd good day to u, and for it concerns me pls continue to post as u much as u can (think every idea cud be good important is continue to think with ur own head but also other thoughts are useful to read the market) so pls go on..., i saw u r bullish now on usd yen. I agree with u hoping to see a fast break of 121,80 ( a lower eur usd below 1,2900 without cb as u said) as it semms to me that after cpi tonite in japan chances to see an hike in february or march are very slim. Furthermore think G7 will pass again above this yen weakness so think that after all news theoritically positive for yen we saw just a retracement to 120,19 ( no break of 119,90/120,0 i mean) and now a break on upside cud be just matter of time.
i m long usd yen at 121,10 since yesterday evening before data with 120,70 sl and 122,40 tp for ur info (by the way i was obviously stopped on my euryen long pos as made the usual mistake, not book profits...., but once more u was rite on a lower sl). Tia and gl appreciate any comments

Hong Kong Ahe 06:40 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Half an hour later yenophobies are forced to move again. Go to get a coffee and take a bit of leisure and ready for the Euro session. GLGT.

Cannes Oil man 06:29 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
I , for one do not have any holy grail, i loose and i win..
I am a very active professional trader, thus my "frequent" postings.
When i trade most of the times i post it..I Was long NZD , and for good reasons , this NZD has been a rocket..

But now here it is sub .7000 , with all of it's crosses very overbought , and with NZDJPY not given back any of the gains.

I see downside risks , no hike in NZD , think we've seen a top for awhile , and yes i can definitely turn around and start longing it , as soon as i feel like it..Too bad you feel that a problem , paris.

Cannes Oil man 06:18 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
7020/30 or so , MK..
---
Paris , i just updated my positions, and gently posted them here..IF you think this is a mental disorder , then you might be the one looking for a shrink.

On top of this all , if i see the $ start loosing gains (e$ 1.3000), i will go back to shorting it, today.
I do not stay fixed to currencies, I'm not married to any of them, don't really understand your problem..I long'd $ for the day, why is that a mental disorder?

KHI MK 06:18 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 06:04 GMT January 26, 2007
where is your stop and profit limit for NZD/$ short please post it i also see it going down

Alaska Moon 06:12 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Paris 06:09 GMT January 26, 2007
=======
Speaking of adding something good to the forum.... Your insults don't add anything to this forum !!!

KHI MK 06:10 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 06:04 GMT January 26, 2007
where is your stop for NZD/$

Paris 06:09 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   


Cannes Oil man 06:04 GMT January 26, 2007

If as you said before the real reason for posting here is to be able to collect your thoughts. then all these frequent posts dont show thought collection but an Attention Deficit Disorder....unless you have other motives...take this as constructive criticism..nothing more....

Cannes Oil man 06:04 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Paris, I do not dictate where prices go..If I want .74 NZD , but i see it going down, then i short it..My personal preferences pass after the realities...Just took a stop in ozi , when it broke (from 7770--80 at 7738)..

I still see Euro , NZD, etc go up in the months ahead , however right not for the day NZD i see it finish close to 6850..Should i long it , while i see risk to the downside , because few days ago it looked ready to go to .74..Well no , i short it, and will look to perhaps long lower , once the dip is done...

As i've said many times, my opinions last as long as my stops(risks, as i don't really use stops , but risk limit)..
gl

Paris 05:57 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 05:28 GMT January 26, 2007
Is your 74 nzd of a few days back still valid?..or you havent worked out whether you are Oily man or Oily lamp?...make up your mind what you are..

Cannes Oil man 05:52 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
I think there's right now too much talk on how $y will crash...

Risk upside for the day and 122.xx...Last week everyone was saying 122...It went to 120..Now everyone says 119..Risk is definitely upside because of that...

We'll see..$ has it chances today, if cb's don't step in and protect the euro once again.

LKWD JJ 05:49 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
oilman wahts with $y? not running with the wind as mkt got it wanted , low cpi yet is there any gas in the tank? i dont think all the specs who were short yen (imm)were washed out over the last two days .

Syd 05:47 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY upward trend losing stream, says BNP Paribas strategist, recommending reducing JPY carry trades; says technical analysis suggests a USD/JPY fall below 120.04 would "open the way for a test of the 90-day moving average at 118.26." Interbank dealer at another European bank has similar view: "given the volatile currency markets recently, I expect the dollar to fall to around 118 (versus the yen) once it goes below the 120 level."

hk ab 05:46 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
RP//THanks very much. Indeed, as a small spect, the thing happened yesterday was truly a squeeze on the option expiry. With some big gold shorts BO, I think the long marcher can take some off the table and reload with much better level.

JIMVHO, we started 615.
I see a very glimpse possibility of 635 today. Large names can flush those SAR 650 and 13.40 longers easily. A double KO.

Cannes Oil man 05:28 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Shorted the NZD$ 6970.
Longed $chf.

Today might see a move and an end to the range, and with some luck be able to pick up some 1.2780 longs in e$..

Really depends if cb's keep protecting the beloved euro's..Though the side has been testing so many times , that this time im going to go with it.

Syd 05:21 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Claudio Piron, head of Asian foreign- exchange research at JPMorgan says Yen carry trades have reached a staggering 300 billion Dollars and most would be nervous coming into the G7 meeting early February.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:13 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is working on the upper barrier at 2.3266 // 2.3661. The current expected trading ranges are 2.2741 - 2.3003 - 2.3266 // 2.3661 - 2.3792 - 2.4055.

NY RP 04:41 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:27 GMT January 26, 2007
As a matter of fact I do.
These are my thoughts and I believe them to be true.
First the geopolitcal landscape has escaped flight to safety for too long. Don't see any risk priced in to market for any possible realities.
Second i find the accelerated move in Gold from low 600's to 650+ as a catalyst for the now rather than the range.
Third is the weak rally in the US Dollar. If what we have witnessed recently is the best the US Dollar can do on relatively good data, then US longs have to concerned.
Fourth and very important is the recent weakness in the long bond. Next couple of days will prove right or wrong. I believe we are at critical point. Too many fundamental and technical reasons to consdier this is the top of the range rather than the launch environment. We are long GOLD and prepared to add accordingly. Any thoughts yourself?

hk ab 04:40 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad acts as a victim of oil again....

hk ab 04:29 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
yesterday I exited some XAG long @ 13.50 since seeing many BO signs AND also saw a group doing SAR @ 13.40

Think they are trapped. If you don't mind we can have more discussion on FUture forum.

Syd 04:28 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Australian CPI has eroded chance of February RBA hike, may have finally brought end to tightening cycle, says censored's Ashraf Laidi; soft report a result of falling energy/commodity prices while severe drought has weighed on economy, causing 3Q GDP growth to slow to lowest rate since 2Q03. Retail sales have also slowed while rising rates may start to burden consumers. "The important role of slowing inflation on monetary policy is that it serves as the main counterpoint to tightening labor markets, which have been strengthened by a 4.6 per cent unemployment rate." AUD/EUR has further downside potential given talk of 25bp ECB hike in 1Q; 59.40, 59.00 are targets vs current 59.90. For AUD/USD "we expect prolonged selling towards 77.00 as an initial target. Next week's FOMC meeting is expected to produce a relatively optimistic statement, which could make the Aussie one of the primary casualties of a U.S. dollar rally."

hk ab 04:27 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
RP, 680 in days? food for thoughts.
any reasons?

NY RP 04:17 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
But you do get to see the live markets prices and your own account balance so maybe there is a similiarity.

NY RP 04:16 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 04:14 GMT January 26, 2007
Point made and probably more effective. Good luck.

dc CB 04:14 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 04:05 GMT January 26, 2007

never understood the popularity of the Texas Holdém game.
If you want to make an analogy, forex and trading in general is much more like 5 card draw poker...you don't get to see anybody elses cards but your own.

Sydney 04:13 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 14:02 GMT January 23, 2007
euroophiles hoping to regain 1.30 should watch euroo/Jap like a hawk here.. the cross must close above 1.58 or risk another multi-fig dive for both..

Thanks for that heads up!

Hong Kong Qindex 04:10 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/AUD : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle charts the market is working on the upper barrier at 2.5043 // 2.5342. The market has a potential to vibrate 2.5043 with an expected magnitude of 2.4644 - 2.5442. the current expected trading ranges are [2.4445]* - 2.4644 - 2.4644 - 2.4744 - 2.4843 - 2.5043* // 2.5342 - 2.5442 - 2.5641*

NY RP 04:09 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Anyone noticing long bond fever. Could lead to sick days ahead. Any thoughts.

NY RP 04:05 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Holding 2 Kings (d,h)on the Flop. (long Gold). Cards on the table are 2(C),7(S),10(H). 680 Gold touch in days (not months). All in. My comparison of current market set up.
Good luck and let volatility lead the way.

hk ab 03:59 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
SFX, THANKS Million!

Singapore Sfx 03:41 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
sry - that was referring to gold charts ...

dc CB 03:40 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
re: JY (yen against others).

we've got a flat CPI so no interest rate hike expected.
coming up: G7 plusseasonal - repatriation thru March.

it will be intersting to see if van Gecko's Singapore Sling will occur sooner rather than later.

Singapore Sfx 03:39 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
ab - possible shooting star - and hence if follows the rest of the rules of the formation , a possible reversal indicator ... however , the ideal kind of shooting star should have a big "real body" candle preceding it ...if you see the charts on 28 sep 06 for instance , that was a textbook case ...

The fact that we havent had a close above that 650.5 zone since July is the other warning ..

Something to keep an eye on

hk ab 03:20 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Can someone kindly explain the formation of the candle stick on gold and silver daily chart of yesterday? Million thanks.

Syd 03:05 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
1-month 25 delta risk-reversals favoring USD puts/JPY calls have risen recently, stands at 0.70%/1.00% in Asia as JPY-carry trade players may be starting to protect against JPY rally vs USD, says options trader at major Japan bank; demand for risk-reversals increases with JPY downside risks growing as players become concerned over FX losses. "If the cautious mood on the yen's recent weakness against the dollar expands further before the G7 meeting, the risk-reversals will be bought more."

Syd 02:29 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Hiromi Kimura, bond strategist at JPMorgan Securities, said the CPI may not have a major impact on the bond market's speculation for a February rate hike. The data probably weren't weak enough to make three of nine BOJ policy board members who called for an imminent rate hike at last week's policy board meeting change their minds, she said.

Dallas GEP 02:18 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Bay, My best guess CURRENTLY is that daily gbp/jpy high may be 239.20

USA BAY 01:50 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
ATHENS,

I appreciate your view and am not saying you are wrong just wanted to compare why the change in view, thats all. thanks

FW CS 01:49 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Athens, I agree $/Yen may be the next accident waiting to happen. With all thes Yen bears touting the carry trade as guaranteed money in the bank....

Athens 01:49 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 01:44, a combintion of my model's parameters. But we don't have to agree, right?

Syd 01:49 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Athens 01:40 GMT manythanks

dc CB 01:46 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
it's all too easy. the first "tell" was when a poster appeared here touting sell yen at your bank, what was it $1mil of yen?
And collect the carry garunteeeeed.

Good to hear from you Athens. I've been collecting cheap JY calls on the IMM for a couple of weeks.

USA BAY 01:44 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
ATHENS,

WHAT is the basis for your opinion on the yen reversal? I don't think the correction has been completed. thanks

Gen dk 01:44 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Athens 01:40 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
FWIW I had been bearish Yen across the board for several weeks. I have now changed direction on both model and non model ground. I can' tell at this point what the Yen's potential is in size and time, however my preferred strategy has now changed from short JPY into long JPY both vs USD and in the JPY crosses. Have a good weekend.

Syd 01:22 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
ADB's Kuroda: JPY Weakness Has Gone Too Far
ADB President Kuroda weighs into carry trade debate on the side of JPY, telling Reuters in Davos that Japan currency would be stronger if it weren't for carry trades. "The yen weakness from yen carry trade has gone too far in my opinion. If it starts to unwind the whole process will be reversed...(and) is likely to happen within one to two years." Carry trade unwinding picked up speed mid-week but appears to be slowing with USD/JPY little changed on week, though impact on AUD more telling (AUD/JPY last quoted at 94.07 from 95.70 a week ago).

Philadelphia Caba 00:52 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
Westpac still expecting weaker JPY, with core Japan CPI print of +0.1% putting focus on risk BOJ missed golden opportunity to hike in January; "the BOJ has been seen to roll in the face of political pressure, and it is not at all clear that data ahead of Feb meeting will justify a rate hike then." Remains long EUR/JPY from tactical trade recommendation to buy at 156.00, objective 160.00. However, says watch Europe commentary on EUR/JPY very closely; with Germany running G7 in 2007, French elections looming, "the treat of official rhetoric must be considered significant." Expects G7 chatter to keep market nervous, bring more large swings in JPY crosses.

Auckland peat 00:28 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
NZ's economy has always been and always will be vulnerable to external shocks - this is why at a fundamental level the weakness of AUD/NZ continues to surprise. There is just no comparison re the diversity and resillience of these two economies and yet currency traders seem to treat them relatively equally, focusing only on their high yield. But this is all a symptom of increasing complacency/diminishing volatility in the int'l mkts.

USA BAY 00:22 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

GBP/JPY seems struggling to push pass 239, may indicate downtrend is more likely than up. Would aapreciate your view here since it is the last trading of the week. THANKS. GT/GL

USA BAY 00:11 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
[BOJ"S DEC CSPI] unexpectedly rose 0.2% y/y to 93.5, beating mkt expectatio...
[BOJ"S DEC CSPI] unexpectedly rose 0.2% y/y to 93.5, beating mkt expectation of a 0.1% y/y fall. The rise reversed a 0.1% y/y fall in Nov. The CSPI was flat on a m/m basis

Syd 00:07 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ: Low Savings, Small Capital Mkts Pose NZ Econ Risks
WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said Friday that low household savings and the lack of breadth of the country's capital markets expose the economy to financial shocks. "Banks deliver basic banking services in New Zealand reasonably efficiently," RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said.
However our capital markets do not all look so sophisticated - there are some financial services that our businesses and our investors cannot easily access onshore," Bollard said in prepared remarks to the Canterbury Employers' Chamber of Commerce in Christchurch. He said the country's financial system looks sound, and the industry has adapted to the country's unique circumstances.
"Because of this, and in particular our lack of household savings, we probably remain more vulnerable to financial shocks than most developed countries," Bollard said.
The governor said the country's financial product range, and the ways financial products are used, raise questions about the financial system's soundness and efficiency. The banking sector dominates New Zealand's financial intermediation process, and is heavily industry- and country-concentrated in its ownership structure. The top four banks in New Zealand are Australian-owned. "This raises questions around overall financial system efficiency and soundness," Bollard said. He said that with bank lending dominated by residential mortgages, small and medium-sized firms may find it difficult to raise bank loans. The dominant intermediation position of banks enables them to aggressively price standard loans and offer deposit rates at times for short-term competitive reasons. "This activity may potentially limit the room for the alternative forms of investment products to develop and create pro-cyclical lending behavior, thus accentuating asset price and business cycles," the governor said.
Bollard said the country's capital markets are relatively small, with very few New Zealand dollar corporate bonds or securities issued by local businesses. New Zealand's stock market is also small relative to the size of the economy.
Bank debt and derivatives markets dominate the local market, the governor said, adding that having more ways to channel savings into capital investment provides a back-up in case a single channel fails. Firms rely too heavily on debt financing, which could constrain their flexibility and development, he said. "In many other economies, firms rely on some combination of external equity and debt for their financing," Bollard added. More efficient regulatory arrangements are being considered, and promotion of deeper and more-liquid bond markets could help develop the country capital markets, he said.

Philadelphia Caba 00:01 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
talk about very thin market this evening/morning..

Syd 00:00 GMT January 26, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD to be soft, undermined by reduced expectations of RBA rate hike after weak Australia CPI, broadly firmer USD tone, but trade likely limited due to holiday in Australia. Dow Jones technical analysis indicates daily chart bias bearish after pair's break below 0.7748 (neckline of head-and-shoulder pattern); both MACD, stochastic indicators bearish. Pair may test immediate support at 0.7698 (50% Fibonacci correction of 0.7412-0.7983 advance), breach of which would target 0.7630 (61.8% correction).

 




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