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Forex Forum Archive for 01/29/2007

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stokholm se 23:48 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
pipes from entering position

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:36 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
stokholm se 23:19 GMT //
hi, just intereted if your TP ans SL are in pips or mark price specific levels?

Los Angeles Mojave 23:28 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Thanks, appreciate the explanation.

stokholm se 23:19 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Time: 12.25pm CET
USDJPY
SELL
At: 121.75
Tp: 30
Stop: 67
OR
Trailling: after 50 pips profit, 27 steps
SIGNAL EXPERT

USA BAY 23:18 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN,

Yes I will observe carefully. Hope you are right. Thanks

USA BAY 23:18 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN,

Yes I will observe carefully. Hope you are right. Thanks

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:15 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
u know I'm just a beginner like you so pls be careful!

USA BAY 23:13 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN,

Thanks you so much for the reply. Really appreciate it. Thanks again

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:11 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:00 GMT //
excuse me for replying instead of Bahrain - but since his strategy is to sell the test of the 200day MA for 100 pips - this means that as the 200DMA is at 1.6788 - he will be targeting 1.6688...

Los Angeles Mojave 23:09 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN --- did i misunderstand your earlier post --- thought you were selling.

hk ab 23:06 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
what boosts the euro all of a sudden?

USA BAY 23:00 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN BAHRAIN1,

Whats your TP for EUR/AUD please. Good Call. Thanks

Global-View Research 22:49 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
This is a good summary and look ahead LINK

Syd 22:39 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Price of oil on the slippery slope
The slide will continue but producers are still sitting pretty, Tim Boreham reports
ONLY five months ago crude oil prices nudged $US80 a barrel amid predictions by informed observers - not apocalyptic ravers - that the commodity would reach the $US100 level.
Since then, oil has tumbled 30 per cent and the contango on futures pricing has disappeared, which means investors aren't punting on a quick recovery.
What has shifted sentiment in such a short time? After all, the global economy still ticks over nicely and the Middle East remains a time bomb - literally and figuratively - ready to explode.

"It's a hard slog convincing investors about the the oil recovery story," Bell Potter research head Peter Quinton says. "Anecdotally, people are waiting on the sidelines for the oil price to bottom, but the trouble is, by then it's too late."
LINK

Syd 22:33 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Dlr Threatens To Breach US$0.7700
Removal of interest rate hike expectations in Australian market sees AUD/USD continue to trade below US$0.7700 mark, says OzForex Dealers. With USD likely to attract offshore buying as market heads into mid-week FOMC meeting, as well as 4Q GDP figures Wednesday, Australian dollar may yet breach US$0.7700. AUD/USD to trade between 0.7680 and 0.7730 in the meantime. Pair last at US$0.7725

Syd 22:32 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
ANZ tips easing in rate rise pressures
Scott Murdoch
January 30, 2007

PROSPECTS for an interest rate cut by the end of the year are firming, as economists predict the Reserve Bank will shed its strong tightening bias.
ANZ has tipped that the next move in official rates would be down instead of up. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21139339-643,00.html

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:20 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd pair: The range continues as the pair bounces off the 2880 support and shorts taken are stopped out on the entry point. Now the pair has a resistance to over come around the 2960-70 and 2980-90 area. A buy signal around the 2980-90 area awaits for the pip raiders but with the tight range there is very little movement until the 3040-50 top is removed IMHO. Peace and GT

Syd 22:10 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:04 Think we need to see a trickle of soft data from NZ and some more good data from US - G7 may push the carry trade currencies down further too , bit boring the whole thing

Sydney ACC 22:04 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:46 GMT January 29, 2007
NZ Adj Dec Dwelling Consents -4.9% Vs Nov; -20.8% Vs Yr Ago
NZ Adj Dec Dwelling Consents Ex-Apartments +2.8% Vs Nov
There is a steady decline in the number of residential dwelling consents and the value of commercial work approved.
If i recall correctly when the data for this segment was released last month Kiwi moved lower.
Do you see it having any impact today?

Syd 21:46 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
NZ Adj Dec Dwelling Consents -4.9% Vs Nov; -20.8% Vs Yr Ago
NZ Adj Dec Dwelling Consents Ex-Apartments +2.8% Vs Nov

NY RP 21:36 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USD Dollar really finding comfort at the .8500 area.
Doesn't want to move higher on good economic news nor does it want to move lower. Hold that line.
Looks to be a data week and maybe we get a break either way. Our focus is more on Gold. The shiny queen seems to be finding buyers on dips and sellers on rallies. Cetainly many are calling for it trade back towards the figure. Anything can happen. We are postioned for a sustained break above the 650 area and then towards 685 on to 700+. Not a one day even but looking better as each day passes.
Front row seats are still available. GL

USA BAY 20:54 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Can I have your view on GBP/JPY PLEASE. THANKS

ABHA FXS 20:48 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
LONG GBPUSD 1.9594 STOP 1.9545
1T 1.9775
2T 1.9837
3T 1.9920 THAN 2.0250

Bahrain Bahrain1 20:47 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 20:10 GMT January 29, 2007

Hi there...many thanks for the info....
will just keep tight stops above 1.6800 now.

also I think its worth to buy EURAUD put o/n (if we saw any rally)....I feel we should see this pair down at least 100 pips. check out. GL.

stokholm se 20:23 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Time: 21.25pm CET
GBPUSD
BUY
At: 1.9592
Tp: 40
Stop: 70
OR
Trailling: after 50 pips profit, 25 steps

Sydney ACC 20:11 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Article ion today's Herald highlights the lopsided nature of Australia's economy. While Western Australia and Queensland have ridden the resources wave to near double-digit growth, the nation's biggest state recorded a 0.3 per cent contraction in the September quarter, a minuscule 0.1 per cent expansion in the previous quarter and zero growth in the three months to March.
Analysts also forecast a further contraction over the December quarter which would put NSW technically into a recession.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/howard-iemma-praying-to-economic-gods/2007/01/29/1169919273361.html

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:10 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 19:11 GMT //
hi man - just from strategy point of view - if the EURAUD is now on the 200DMA doesn't this mean it is challenging it and will make a test higher?

anyway - there is a trendline from Oct and Dec highs that is going to meet the upmove at around 1.6820/30 -
so from trading point of view isn't it better to try to buy the uptick and then see what happens whenit meets the trednline Res?
this is a Q to anybody who wish to comment this chart setup!

USA BAY 19:27 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone else feel EUR/CAD and EUR/CHF is a short at this point. Thanks

Syd 19:24 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EU's Juncker "Increasingly Worried" About Yen
European finance ministers opened their monthly meeting Monday expressing concern about the weakness of the Japanese yen. "We are increasingly worried" about the yen, said Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg Prime Minister and chairman of the Eurogroup. The Eurogroup's 13 euro-zone finance ministers were meeting before the Ecofin meeting, which includes all 27 European Union member nations. At both the Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings, ministers will try to come to a common position for the Feb. 9-10 gathering of Group of Seven leading industrial nations' finance ministers and central bankers, Juncker said. German finance minister Peer Steinbrueck said he expected the G7 meeting to discuss currencies. While concerns about the weakening yen are mounting, concerns of a dollar collapse have eased as the greenback has stabilized around $1.30 to the euro. European ministers believe this represents a benign level which leaves their economies competitive. E.U. officials say they fear the cheap yen is making European exports to the world's second-largest economy more pricey. Greater flexibility in all the key Asian currencies has long been on Europe's wish list, they add. "I think the evolution of the yen should reflect fundamentals," said European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia. Until now, Europe's currency focus has been on China and its cheap yuan. However the Japanese currency actually may be more dangerous because Japan and Europe compete more head-to-head for sales in goods ranging from machine tools to cars. In contrast, China specializes in many consumer products no longer made in Europe.


RIC fxq 19:24 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 19:20 GMT '


that seems to get trotted out evry few months

Toronto MRC 19:20 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Revalue the penny?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,247479,00.html

Bahrain Bahrain1 19:11 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds ..Sell EURAUD here with 30pips stop for 100pips move. 1.6792 (200day M/A) Good luck.

OTTAWA mjw 19:01 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
philly caba, could I have your analysis of eur/chf .still looking to short???

Los Angeles Mojave 18:47 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Sofia -- thanks. i'm new also. trying to learn.

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:25 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
well mostly I look on 1 hour charts - and also try to see how is the conditions on the 2 and 4 hours charts - and try with some basic setups like 25/50 /100 MAs...
I'm just a beginner - just try to devlop smtg out of the vast info pool around ..

Los Angeles Mojave 18:17 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Sofia --- what periods do you use for your crosses if i may ask.

manchester 18:10 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have any opinions on gold?

USA BAY 18:04 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Is your bias for GBP/USD downside. Thank You

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:01 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
well tnx Mojave but I trade mostly crosses live - tnx for the contribution!

Gen dk 17:58 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Los Angeles Mojave 17:49 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN --- i often use a cross of the Simple Moving Average. for the EURO/USD, i use the 30 minute time frame -- i make the 10 period simple moving average red.

the 20 period MA white and the 60 period MA blue. once or twice every 24 hours, the red line will cross the white --- this morning that was 4:30 Eastern Standard Time. i wait 20 pips and then enter the trade;

the cross can be up or down, but the 20 point "filter" is necessary in either case.

often prices fail to move the full 20 pips so i do nothing.

finally, this morning the barrier was achieved and the currency moved more than 25 points for my BUY. Easy to follow, especially on a demo account; seems to work well only with EURO/USD.

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:36 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 17:27 GMT //
I have been trying with MAs and it really a good indicator - crosses and also the sloping of the MAs..
BBands not very familiar
However these guys in the trading rooms have an advantage since they are in the business and know the flows and so on..
btw I knew a guy who traded for Invesco and I asked him once and he said that actually none of the strategies he utilises is in a book or smtg but mostly from special seminars and so on...

Purk - tnx! in a min..

Hong Kong Ahe 17:27 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 16:56 GMT, Hi Kaprikorn, it depends on what tools you are having and what tools most of the traders are having. There are some good indicators by their models in this forum through subscription. Most commonly used indicators in the forex charts are Moving average and Bollinger Band (its newest derived similar indicators, like Envelop Trading Band or Parabollic SAR). One of the indicator which is hard to develop the model is psychological trading factor. Dynex Charts has a model there but just as a reference. You may need to train yourself the eyes to capture price figures, like those people working in trading room. They have the pulse of the price movement in their brains and no need to see any chart indicators. GLGT.

The Neterlands Purk 17:21 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Only your mind is working Kapikorn. Everyting what is outside your mind will influence you. Start to study mind lecture. Pass your e-mailaddress to Jay, i will send you an e- book.

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:13 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
no really - I try hard , read books, rean analytics anything there is... and at the end it is outdatred...

I know it is not good since signal it gives are many times turning contrary and no good indication

in the end it is a big mess with all those pivot points, tech indicators, trend lines - I really don't understand what works and what don't..

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:56 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 16:24 GMT //
hi - tnx for the reference - I try but it actually doesn't help at all using these 2 indicators...
do you like to comment or share better ways to determine entry/exits?

Polokwane CS 16:55 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 16:24 GMT January 29, 2007
Hi Sofia Kaprikorn, I saw you used MACD and stochastics to determine your trading, perhaps getting them from books.

Which indicators can you recommend , that works best for forex.Thanks.

Dallas GEP 16:40 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Out for now but I am short usd/jpy from 122.00 from earlier and still short eur/gbp as posted.

Hong Kong Ahe 16:24 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hi Sofia Kaprikorn, I saw you used MACD and stochastics to determine your trading, perhaps getting them from books. I'd like just to say something about these two charts. They are very old ways to determine stocks movement in stock markets. Most of the forex traders today do not read these factors. I traded forex since 1985, just to let you know from my experience, if any in assitance. GL and GT.

SF anmart fx 15:52 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF. Strong resistance around 1.6230

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:48 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
I ask from this point of view that when I see it at the top - my first idea is to short it...
however I see my approache is wrong as many times it just trends way higher..

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:46 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Caba - great you were right - and this DJ piece justified that..
is this smtg like a rule that when a pair is trading within a tight range at the top or bottonm of trend that there si high propensity it will challange the trend border?

ldn pw 15:45 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 13:29 GMT January 29, 2007

Is this analysis still valid please Athens MK? Thanks

Philadelphia Caba 15:39 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
tks GEP, the same decent res. on eur/chf around 1.6235 ... not shorting yet..

Dallas GEP 15:35 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
YES CABA I do. This is resistance area for e/gbp as you know. Decent chance of e/gbp shorts working from here

Philadelphia Caba 15:21 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
GEP, do you still have eur/gbp short?

PAR 14:55 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Junckers and Steinbruck seem to be back seat ryders. No market impact .

Como Perrie 14:50 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Just month s end alghoritmic trading/stops search mode market ying yanging, more yinging than yanging ahead of FOMC jan 31st. Very big options defense noted on eurusd around the 1.28 figure.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:48 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
1447 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/CHF is in an intraday technical range between 1.6211 and 1.6218. Current trading near the top of the range suggests an upside breakout and an initial move up to 1.6225-1.6228 resistance. An extended higher move would be targeting 1.6238.

Philadelphia Caba 14:47 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EU's Juncker "Increasingly Worried" About Yen

madrid mm 14:43 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
i hope they will say something because so far ....Zzzzzzzzz

madrid mm 14:42 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Toronto YV 14:34 GMT January 29, 2007
PAR 14:32 GMT January 29, 2007

they will discuss currencies over a beer for some and coffee for others ?
8)

RIC fxq 14:41 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
The nomination Wednesday of the former North Rhine-Westphalian prime minister, Peer Steinbrück (Social Democratic Party—SPD), to the post of finance minister in Germany’s new grand coalition is a clear signal that future government policy will involve new welfare cuts and a further redistribution of wealth from the needy to the rich. At the start of the week the leadership of the SPD agreed to form a grand coalition with the conservative union parties, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU).

Toronto YV 14:34 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
PAR, that is german version of Starbucks ;)

PAR 14:32 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
German Steinbruck says G7 to discuss currencies, but who is Steinbruck. A brand of german beer ?

Hong Kong Qindex 14:27 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:42 GMT January 29, 2007
EUR/USD : After consolidating between 1.2911 - 1.2931 the market has potential to tackle downside targeting points at 1.2832 and 1.2871.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:16 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 14:13 GMT - In general USD is strong.

jkt-aye 14:15 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Many thanks Qindex. got it now. as always highly appreciated your good analysis.

jkt-aye 14:13 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q, upside target 120.70? do you mean lower usd ? mean while you see strength usd on usdcad ? sorry for my ignorance.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:12 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 13:55 GMT - USD/JPY : The initial weekly cycle downside targeting point is 120.70.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:07 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 13:55 GMT - USD/JPY : The initial weekly cycle upside targeting point is 120.70.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:05 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
manchester 13:47 GMT - Gold : It is pulling towards [626.8]*.

jkt-aye 13:55 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, do you still see good chance usjy 120.79 for this week ? i have magnetic price level 121.00 on hourly basis. tia

manchester 13:47 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
QINDEX, do you see gold going below 639

madrid mm 13:38 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators are the most bearish ever on the yen, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Futures wagers on a decline in the yen exceeded those on a gain by a record 164,860 for the week ended Jan. 23, trumping the prior all-time high of 138,146 so-called net shorts a week earlier, CFTC data showed on Jan. 26.

The yen tumbled to the weakest in almost four years against the dollar and a record low versus the euro last week as investors trimmed bets the Bank of Japan will lift borrowing costs next month. A government report Jan. 26 showed consumer prices remained tame.

Athens MK 13:29 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Good morning,

GBP/$: looking at the charts we see a potential scenario of cable bottoming out around 1.9515-30 with a first target of 1.9725

Intraday: If bias continues to be bearish then a first target of 1.9536 should be hit. A second target of 1.9482 if selling pressure increases.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:26 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Mla Evan 13:21 GMT - AUD/USD : the market should be able to penetrate through 0.7713 and then we should be able to see 0.7686 either today or tomorrow in the Asian session.

Mla Evan 13:21 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, welcome. How abt Aud, is your target still 1.7686, TIA.

stokholm se 13:11 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
hi and good luck

Hong Kong Qindex 13:08 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : It has a potential to reach 1.1914 later this week.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:06 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Mla Evan 12:55 GMT - Thank you for pointing it out.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:05 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:08 GMT - Gold : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 639.

Chatham 13:05 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Good morning guys.

It would seem the dollar has found some support over the weekend. The USD currency pairs we are interested in are:

Long USD-CAD
Long USD-JPY
Long USD-CHF

We bought USD-CHF Friday at around these levels on the break of 1.2520, and we bought USD-JPY this morning on the break of 121.80. USD-CAD would have to break 1.1850 for us to get interested there.

Of course, this is all FWIW. We wish you a profitable day.

OTTAWA mjw 12:57 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
cannes oilman, could you share your analysis of the market if you have time thx, alot...

hk ab 12:56 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
thanks Qindex.

Mla Evan 12:55 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, do you meant 639?

Hong Kong Qindex 12:52 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:08 GMT - Gold : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 439.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:40 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
tnx Caba, I just try to build some plan but I fail at every step..
looks like i miss some basics as when I read your reply I don't think about of making a new high but only the downside - so I'm kinda unprepared - I have some one sided views that more often lose..

Philadelphia Caba 12:30 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Kapri, I'm waiting for another failed test of 1.6220, with stop above 1.6245 ... but if eur/chf can make a new high I will place a short order around 1.6300 with 30-40 pips stop...
don't forget, we have a full economic data calendar this week..gt/gl!

Makassar Alimin 12:28 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
i think i agree with Tonbridge AL's view...usdjpy is on its way to 123.20 area before 125 further out, still a buy on dips here...usd index also shows that usd can surge to regain 86 level, good luck

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:17 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
CABA,
do you sell EUR/CHF here around 1.6210?
macd and slow stochastics lookk good to me but I seek sec opinion..

beijing 12:13 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
test

hk ab 12:08 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, any views on gold today? TIA.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:33 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : After consolidating between 238.38 - 239.23, the market is ready to tackle the downside targeting points at 235.85 and 236.69.

Global-View Research 11:13 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Scroll down this report for a good economic preview of the week ahead:

Economics Weekly: Inflation in the UK could rise more than the MPC expects. Weekly economic data preview: US rate decision the highlight of a key week for financial markets

Hong Kong Qindex 11:09 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : the market is expected to consolidate between 156.80 - 158.05. The downside targeting points are 155.24 and 155.55.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:44 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 10:35 GMT - You are welcome, good night.

Auckland peat 10:35 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Eur Chf broke up the expected 25 pips from the ascending triangle mentioned earlier. Thanks for the assistance in bagging that trade Qindex. g'nite (NZtime)

Auckland trotter 10:09 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
The EUR/USD has hit 1.2932 ref my previous posts.

I am now selling.

Madrid mm 09:57 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm 06:49 GMT January 29, 2007
EUR-USD -
R3 = 1.3013 R2 = 1.2979 -R1 = 1.2946
Pivot = 1.2912
S1 = 1.2879 - S2 = 1.2845 - S3 = 1.2812

mal semiji 09:56 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
anyone know about eurusd range fro today

Hong Kong Qindex 09:56 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between 121.48 - 122.17. The downside targeting point is 120.79. The trading reference is as follow :- ... // 1220.79* - 121.45 - 121.48 - 121.71 - [122.17]* ...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:50 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Yes it is good to compare notes this is what the FF is all about. As I said before the indicators do show O/B levels but for now no signs of a corrective pullback yet. Long term view on the usd/jpy pair is still bearish until the main resistance is broken completely. There is a double bottom (100-105) to deal with in the future if the bears take over. I hope both of you have a great week as well. Peace and GT

Hong Kong Qindex 09:36 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the market is going to consolidate between 1.1762 - 1.1815. Upside targeting points are 1.1831 and 1.1852.

Auckland trotter 09:32 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:24 GMT January 29, 2007
I should add that the daily pivot is 1.2913.

Athens 09:27 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
OMIL and NS, thank you both.

NS, yes, that's what I meat, cycles. And right now, although I am not sying that it can't go higher, given the change in my model direction and the very high time parameter, any upmove is difficult to be sustined for the time being.

OMIL, 121.85 was only a static level (around 2003 high) and the high 125 also a static level seen before 135 (the 2002 highs) in case the market goes for a very long term major SHS. But none of those level is dynamic. Anyway, my tech view is neither intraday nor overly long ter.

Good luck to both of you. I am out now.

Auckland trotter 09:24 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Among other indicators I have the EUR/USD down to around 1.2845 which is S1 on the weekly pivots and around S2 on the daily pivots.

The level to watch is around 1.2877 from the 4hr 20 day chart and the 1wk 3yr chart..

I see the market bouncing at the moment with an uncertainty of direction with the opening of the UK market. There is a possibility of the EUR/USD settling into a range.

We shall see.

Madrid mm 09:14 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
The Bank of Japan's surprise decision gave hedge funds more time to take advantage of their favorite trading strategy: Borrowing in Japan and using the money to invest in assets with higher yields. U.K. two-year government bonds yield 4.77 percentage points more than Japanese securities with a similar maturity, the widest gap since August 2004.

``We've been borrowing yen and buying anything else,'' said Max Tessier, who helps manage about $2 billion in currency assets at CIBC Global Asset Management in Montreal. ``Strategists looking for yen strength may be disappointed.''

Barclays, Standard Chartered Are Yen Bears on Rates

Mumbai NS 09:14 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hi Omil hope u r doing fine while tend to agree but cycles do call for a top somewhere in this pair i think that's what Adam is pointing out and i do concur he must be pointing trade of 2007 to us today who knows this pair shuld be at below 108 end 2007 peace to u too mate. gl gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:09 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Good to see your post Adam hope you are well. Short term to mid term view usd/jpy pair has the indicators in the O/B levels but still bullish at this time. Long term main resistance (121.60-80) is being challenged this month and a closing above that level would be very important for the bulls. Next significant resistance is in the 125.75-85 level. In the meantime this pair is a buy on dips for short and mid term views IMHO. Peace and GT

Syd 09:07 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Risk Aversion Bounces Back
Risk aversion has surged to a 7-month high, according to RBC Capital Markets. The bank reported its own Risk Aversion Thermometer rose to 3.1, the highest level since June 2006, from -1.3 last week. "Despite this, safe haven low yielding USD/JPY remains well bid and hit a high of 122.07, its highest level since December 2002," the bank says.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:59 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market will consolidate between 1.2524 - 1.2567 for the time being. The upside targeting points at 1.2589 and 1.2610 are likely to be challenged.

Athens 08:53 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Today's $/JPY extension on the upside does not change my technical analysis and strategy calling since mid last week for selling rallies. Actually a fair resistance level (122.15) I had calculated has plus/minus held thas far. Only a move past 122.90 (if seen today) would invalidate the strategy.

Madrid mm 08:53 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Buyout groups are forecast to raise $500bn

The global private equity industry is forecast to raise $500bn in 2007, about $70bn more than last year’s record, according to Private Equity Intelligence (Prequin). The group’s forecast underlines private equity’s continuing surge, in terms of both the amount of capital investors are willing to devote to the asset class as well as record deal-making activity. Prequin believes there are 916 funds conducting roadshows that are targeting $396bn, compared to 688 funds seeking $223bn this time last year. Almost a dozen so-called mega-funds are still marketing — including KKR ($16.6bn), Apax (€8.5bn), Goldman Sachs Capital Partners ($10bn) and Thomas H Lee ($9bn) — while three groups, Hellman & Friedman, Providence Equity and Silver Lake are all after $8bn.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/01/26/2076/buyout-groups-are-forecast-to-raise-500bn/

Syd 08:46 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
An overwhelming majority of citizens in the big euro-zone countries believe the euro has damaged their national economies, according to a poll in the Financial Times Monday.

More than two-thirds of the French, Italians and Spanish - and more than half of Germans - believe the single currency has had a "negative impact", according to an FT-Harris poll. In France, just 5% said the euro has had a positive effect on the French economy.

The European Central Bank regards its public credibility, and that of the euro, as essential to its battle against inflation, which is sees as the prerequisite for economic growth.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0dc53342-af08-11db-a446-0000779e2340.html

Syd 08:45 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD Has Downside Risk Monday - RBoS
EUR/USD's risk is to the downside Monday, with resistance between 1.2955-75 likely to cap, says Royal Bank of Scotland. Now at 1.2915, the bank says a break below 1.2880-65 support should trigger fresh losses toward the 1.2820-1.2695 retracement zone (61.8%-76.4% of the 1.2485-13365 rally). From an interweek perspective the bank targets the 1.2505-1.2485 area

Gen dk 08:41 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 08:35 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Rome Hedi 06:03 GMT - Good afternoon, we have to wait and see.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:34 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : After consolidating between 1.9552 - 1.9614 the market has potential to tackle 1.9407 and 1.9490. Projected resistant points are expected at 1.9697 and 1.9717.

Auckland trotter 08:23 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
I have the general pressure for the EUR/USD as down for now.

At present I see the 50% fib on the 1day 6month around 1.2920 as a level to watch in regards to the direction the market will take for this trading session - given the opening of the EUR and the UK session to come.

I also have a level on the 1hr 30day chart around 1.2932 which is M3 on the daily pivots and is also around a level on the 1wk 3yr chart..

Syd 08:22 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Speculators Heavily Invested In Carry
The latest figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange show that speculators are the most heavily invested in currency carry trades since last October, with long GBP and short JPY positions showing record highs, according to ABN-Amro. The data, for the week up to last Tuesday, shows that the net aggregate USD position is nearly flat but with long positions against lower yielding currencies, such as the JPY, CAD and CHF, and short positions against higher yielders, such as the AUD, GBP and MXN. The one exception is the EUR, where speculators are sitting on a medium-sized EUR long, despite the negative carry of that trade, says ABN-Amro.

St. Annaland Bob 08:12 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
NZDJPY: 1977 @ 280 >>> 2000 @ 40 >>> 2007 @ 85 >>>

happy trades

Madrid mm 08:09 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
munich hans 07:24 GMT January 29, 2007
what happen with yen 30 pips down some body in europe talk

it means that -
someone, somewhere is saying something that has some impact on prices somehow that some FX players are interpreting in some ways to make the yen move 30 pips !!

Usually politicians or someone with influence in the finance world...... 8-)

Mla Evan 07:42 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 04:33 GMT January 29, 2007
Revdax, am also expecting a rebound but not sure from what lows.

GENEVA DS 07:26 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
MUNICH hans

UK Clearer to my knowledge are English Banks , which are doing the Clearing... for Bank of England and for other international Commercial Banks... in general very well known Banks....

Did you hear anything lately, what they did in the Forex market?

munich hans 07:24 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
what happen with yen 30 pips down some body in europe talk

Madrid mm 07:24 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
munich hans 07:15 GMT January 29, 2007

Also known as retail bank like Deutch Banch 8-)

Sydney ge11ja 07:20 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
munich hans 07:15 GMT January 29, 2007

it means UK clearing bank like Barclays

munich hans 07:15 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
anyone know what is uk clearer its like hedge funds

Madrid mm 07:03 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
FT/ Harris Poll: An overwhelming majority of citizens in the big eurozone countries believe the euro has damaged their national economies; The ECB is expected next week to prepare markets for another interest rate increase in March.

USD/JPY hit fresh 4-yr highs of 121.83, above recent highs of 121.80, high since March 2003 of 121.87, a break of will see USD/JPY at >4-year high since Dec 2002 since 122.86. USD/JPY rose on back of good buying from large UK clearer out of HK, US investment houses and banking group and Japanese names, but unable to clear 121.85/122 options, with payout at 122 said to be >$30-40m.

Bids at 121.20-30, with talks of Japanese investors demand for overseas investment trust - toushin and also Uridashi.

EUR under pressure as US funds sold, weighed by poll showing Europeans have dim view on Euro, and expectation ECB may not hike at quicker pace. EUR/USD Sovereign bids fm 1.2870-00, but huge stoploss below 1.2870/50.

Cable rose to 1.9619 highs on knee-jerk reaction to initial Blanchflower comments that he is as hawkish as anyone, but subsequent comments prove to be less hawkish. Stops blw 1.9550.

EUR/GBP still in range of 0.6550-0.6600.US investment houses, sold Kiwi from highs, more downside seen for Aussie, CAD as RBA, BoC seen on hold as well as Fed.

Nikkei +48.5pts at 17,470. JGBs lower on back of rising US trsy yields, with 10-yr yield +0.04% at 1.720%.

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 121.44/121.83, EUR/USD 1.2899/1.2927, GBP/USD 1.9576/1.9617, USD/CHF 1.2524/1.2549, AUD/USD 0.7724/0.7745, NZD/USD 0.6940/0.6965.

Madrid mm 06:49 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR-USD -
R3 = 1.3013 R2 = 1.2979 -R1 = 1.2946
Pivot = 1.2912
S1 = 1.2879 - S2 = 1.2845 - S3 = 1.2812

Auckland peat 06:46 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
short term Eur/CHF formed a (bullish) ascending triangle (imo)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:33 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Initial target for the eur/usd short is around the 2780-90 area. Peace and GT

Rye,NY et 06:24 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...I think today's High is already in as I look for the market to test the rising Bullish Trendline Support (projected from the previous Bullish Channel of last summer) at 1.2840 today--basis dailies. A bounce from there would put us back into a short-term uptrend. A break of that level (tomorrow) would then look for the major Bearish Channel Support at 1.2775....Just my view...GL/GT

Rome Hedi 06:03 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:56 GMT January 29, 2007

I think GBPUSD will reach 1.9660 today and later 1.9730.

Mumbai NS 05:00 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Ty Doc will eagerly wait for ur post gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 04:56 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 04:54 GMT - GBP/USD will go lower. I will post it later today.

Mumbai NS 04:54 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q Gud mrng after a good weekend hopefully for u Sir on cbl do u think 1.9560 is the next lvl of importance ty in advance gl gt

USA BAY 04:54 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Yes I love seafood. My favourite shark fin soup. Will visit HK one day. Thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 04:50 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:41 GMT - I havn't gone there for lunch yet. The Aberdeen fish market canteen does offer one of the best seafood in Hong Kong. You must try if you come to Hong Kong.

USA BAY 04:41 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Thanks a lot Dr Q for EUR/CHF. You must be enjoying your seafood breakfast at the Aberdeen market. GT/GL

Hong Kong Qindex 04:38 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 04:33 GMT - EUR/USD : The chance to see the range 1.2951 - 1.2961 is less than 30% at this moment.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:36 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : After consolidating between 1.6168 - 1.6195 the market is ready to tackle the upside targeting points at 1.6209 and 1.6223.

HK REVDAX 04:33 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex //What is the probability that Euro/$ will go above last Friday's Hi of 12945 while holding above last Friday's low of 12876 in today's development.

USA BAY 04:18 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone comment on short EUR/CHF please. THANKS

Hong Kong Qindex 04:09 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : After conslidating between 0.6576 - 0.6594 the market is going to tackle the downside targeting points at 0.6536 and 0.6565. A projected resistant point is expected at 0.6609.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:46 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
St. Pete Islander 14:39 GMT January 26, 2007
Good to hear from you Islander hope you are well captain.

Short term view eur/usd pair: 2940-50 is the key resistance for now and where the entry stops will reside. Closer resistance can be found now at 2915-25 for now. Moving stops 40 pips lower under the entry point if the 2850-60 support is tested for now. Peace and GT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:42 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : After consolidating between 1.2911 - 1.2931 the market has potential to tackle downside targeting points at 1.2832 and 1.2871.

USA BAY 03:30 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
[NZD/USD] was sold down this morning from an intraday high of 0.6968 to an intr...
[NZD/USD] was sold down this morning from an intraday high of 0.6968 to an intraday low of 0.6942. A US invt bank was seen selling the pair from the 0.6960 level pushing it below small stops at the 0.6950 level. Japanese Sec House which was also selling the NZD/JPY cross on profit taking after the recent run-up added to the downside pressure for the NZD/USD. The market has completely shrugged off the hawkish comments from the RBNZ after the rate announcement but is now confused after RBNZ Gov Bollard warned of the possibility of a financial crisis because of the nation's low savings rate. It seems that everytime there is a Kiwi supportive development, it wil inevitably be tempered. With such a perception, Kiwi upside above may be difficult to come by.

Syd 02:43 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Some hedge fund players buy USD call/JPY put options with 123.50 strike, $200 million face value at 7.30% vol with Feb. 23 expiry, say Tokyo options dealers

Hong Kong Qindex 02:21 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between
121.57 - 121.74 - 121.82 for the time being. Projected resistant points are 121.91 and 122.07. Short term downside targeting points are 120.74 and 121.07.

Syd 02:05 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Greenspan: Worst Of US Housing Adjustments "Behind Us"

Syd 00:58 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Further tightening by RBNZ will "eventually signal the death knell for the overvalued NZ dollar," says Bank of NZ; adds NZ economy has been more important fundamental driver of NZD, citing NZD downturn early 2006 on talk of sharp cooling in economy. Says interest rates have been a barometer, not driver of NZD; "so, in signaling its clear intention to lean against the latest resurrection in domestic demand, the (RBNZ) now stands a good chance of convincing FX markets that the NZ dollar will no longer be a one-way bet." NZD/USD last at 0.6959, up 6.5% past 4 months on upbeat economic data, expectations RBNZ will tighten.

Philadelphia Caba 00:53 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
US Unlikely To Back Europe On Yen - UBS
Comments by U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Adams on Friday suggest U.S. won't support Europeans in tackling weak yen at February G7, says UBS; "Adams described Japan as proceeding cautiously and that was probably an appropriate policy given continued weak spots in the economy, such as consumption. His comments are consistent with our view the Americans will take a back seat to negotiations over the yen, and hence the G7 meeting should not prove to be a pivotal event for FX markets."

OTTAWA mjw 00:53 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
hawkish comments out of uk , is the euro driving the pound down??

USA BAY 00:44 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
[DLR/YEN] rises to 121.61 amidst talk of a non-citybank's buying. The mkt is...
[DLR/YEN] rises to 121.61 amidst talk of a non-citybank's buying. The mkt is off the high already with offers twds 122.00 being thick especially around 121.70-80.

hk ab 00:42 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
very strange dollar strength.

Syd 00:23 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Australian Govt May Put Conditions On Qantas Bid - PM

Hong Kong Qindex 00:16 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 0.7729 - 0.7751. A projected resistant point is expected at 0.7772. The short term downside targeting point is 0.7686.

N.B. Only selected items will be posted today.

GVI 00:05 GMT January 29, 2007 Reply   
Cincinnati MHF 22:59, If you need some advice, contact [email protected]

 




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