Forex Forum Archive for 01/30/2007

Cannes Oil man 23:59 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
ozi good too , lest it breaks sub .7650..(well protected)
Few days ago, it was the euro , no one wanted any of it..now euro is leading the pack...This market just isn't sure what to do , so no real move till more enthusiasm is out there...But again all the levels we re out now are nothing exiting..Neither for bulls or for bears...e.g E.G NZD 69 area..Too close to recent high near .70xx , too far from lows for buyers..Same for Euro..So price range around, people looking for clues here and there..Fundamentally nothing has changed, what made the prices move where they are now , is still out there...If OZI rose from .50 to .80 in a few years , the detonator to trend change hasn't happened..Same goes for euro, gbp, gold, and so forth..

GN.

Auckland peat 23:55 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man , are you confusing the location of your marsupials? :+)

Not everything I read is negative on the Antipodean currencies. increasingly looks like AUD has found support at 77. Kiwi might yet test further huh 68 ish?

Auckland peat 23:50 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
thanks for your queries guys , tho I am trying only to trade very selectively these days so dont always have a view , and dont trade GPB/CHF.
Re Eur/Chf it has formed a pennant during the last 24 hours following the last advance (bullish continuation pattern) http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp.
But breakout has not occurred and so increasingly risks testing support at 1.6220 and 1.6190. so in general still bullish - cant deny that trend.

Philadelphia Caba 23:44 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Oily, kiwi with aussie on the same boat ... (?) everything I read last few days is sell, sell, sell aussie..maybe they're right, maybe not ...

Cannes Oil man 23:39 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
The situation was a "peak" at 6700 area , and 6650, no hike , went to test 6540...From there everyone started screaming for .6000..Situation is very similar, though my target this time isn't .70...But .74..

Hop hop kangoroo.

GN.

Cannes Oil man 23:36 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Last time the NZD didn't hike...Prices were at 6620..

It declined 1.2% in 1 session...It stayed there for 2 or 3 days, with bleak , very bleak outlook from all the advisory around...I was very bullish, but prices didn't move, the NZD was left out..It ended up 2 weeks later at 7080...I see the same situation here..Bleak outlook , no hike..Advisory saying short short..though we are 300+ pips higher...As i have to have risk $ limit i'll stay around 6840 , or lower by thinning up..Though for me the little kangoroo is just testing the patience.
gl gt

Syd 23:31 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD May Remain Under Pressure Post-FOMC OzForex Dealers.
AUD/USD holding within recent 0.7700-0.7750 range, at current 0.7722 sitting above crucial support at 0.7700 Trend of strong USD weighing on AUD may continue for up to a week if FOMC issues hawkish statement following conclusion tonight of 2-day meeting; next support at 0.7600 to come into focus if Fed indicates any persistent inflationary pressures

Syd 23:27 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
The New Zealand dollar fell by roughly 1% on Tuesday as it is falling out of favor prior to the G-7. This weakness is also based upon a deterioration of the New Zealand balance of payments and a static monetary policy. Inflation has been moderating and at the last meeting the RBNZ left interest rates unchanged, although the tough talk on inflation remains. The current account deficit is widening and still stands above 9% of GDP, which is worse than the US and among the highest in the world. If this deterioration of the terms of trade isn't going to lead to an interest rate increase to slow the economy, then the Kiwi becomes vulnerable to a sharp downmove

Syd 23:24 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Chinese Legislator Warns Of Stock Market 'Bubble' - FT


The Chinese stock market is developing into a "bubble," and investors are in danger of behaving irrationally, a leading Chinese legislator said on Tuesday in the strongest public expression of concern to come from a senior state figure, the Financial Times reported on its Web site.

Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress and an influential figure in Beijing financial circles, warned the mainland stock market could be overheating after a rise of 130% last year, according to the newspaper.

"There is a bubble going on. Investors should be concerned about the risks," Cheng said in an interview with the FT.

"But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice," he was quoted as saying

"You can't take administrative measures to change people's behavior. The market is based on people's behavior. Investors will have to learn their own lessons," he said, according to the FT.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/5415cad8-b0a1-11db-8a62-0000779e2340.html

USA BAY 23:11 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Auckland Peat,

Do you have any thoughts on EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF. Apprreciate it. Thank YOU

SINGAPORE GFX 23:09 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
AUCKLAND PEAT,

What is your view on KIWI, further decline?? Thanks

Auckland peat 23:08 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
OTTAWA mjw 22:08 GMT January 30, 2007
does anyone recall what was the driving force for nzd/$ to fall from 6870 level to 06000 level backin feb o6

ballooning trade deficit and o'seas debt was (and still is) a factor with kiwi, creating fear of creditor disenchantment etc.

USA BAY 22:26 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Can I have your view on GBP/JPY please. Thanks

OTTAWA mjw 22:23 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
cannesoil man thx. for the input . yours and others input help so much thx.

Cannes Oil man 22:18 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
The real problem with NZD is that it can take so much before the flows are too much...Unlike Euro or even GBP (though GBP is also a pretty thin one compared to EUR or $Y) , NZD$ is a very lightweight one...So when the big guns start thinning positions the thing goes without retracing for 200-500 pips..(something you barely see in more efficient ccy's).

OTTAWA mjw 22:08 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
does anyone recall what was the driving force for nzd/$ to fall from 6870 level to 06000 level backin feb o6

Syd 21:59 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
NZ's December trade deficit narrows, as expected, with exports of meat and dairy products continuing to rise; still, domestic demand drivers appear to remain intact with consumption goods imports and factory machinery purchases staying up. Statistics NZ says Dec deficit was NZ$433 million vs Nov deficit NZ$806 million (expected NZ$440 million); exports +9.3% on-year, led by 16% rise in meat and edible offal sales. Imports +12.4% on-year though it fell by 8.2% on month. Strong exports of dairy and meat are comforting factors, help rotation of growth toward external sector from domestically-focussed drivers. Downside is the continued uptick in consumption goods imports, which underscores a domestic economy that continues to tick nicely, keeping inflation high

Cannes Oil man 21:58 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
NZD$ seems to behave the exact same when it was at 6550 , back on my recom to buy it..

Few advice to sell it...It seems to be "out of control"..and finally goes to a new high..

Still see NZD , AUD , has wonderful buys in the weeks ahead..CAD too...

The People's Republic has already gobbled up 30% of the world's steel... 31% of the world's coal... 40% of the world's cement..Next will be gold and oil...though they have increased 40% of oil consumption , still above 30% of people in china are without proper electric , car etc...

BUY COM's!

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:56 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
I look at EURJPY as leading the GBPJPY - someone watching the crosses?

USA 21:53 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
NZ Data does not seems bad but kiwi seems to decline further. Any views anyone. Thanks

usa bay 21:45 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

Do you have NZ DATA PLEASE. THANKS

Philadelphia Caba 21:45 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
kiwi Trade Balance -0.433B vs. -0.500B exp.

ABHA FXS 21:45 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Long nzdusd 6879 Stop 6830 T 6980 for 100 pips

Syd 21:19 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
The honeymoon is over. Iran's controversial president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has finally come unstuck. His popularity with the Iranian electorate - the subject of much incredulous analysis in 2005 - seems to be falling back at last, and the country's latest exercise in populism seems to be reaping the rewards of unfulfilled promises bestowed with little attention to economic realities.http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2001703,00.html

USA BAY 20:55 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
JKT-Aye,

Thanks a lot for taking the trouble and doing the analysis. Appreciate it.

jkt-aye 20:53 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY ... re euraud, i saw divergence on 4H chart with my level 1.6745 (30M), 1.6710 (1H) and 1.6645 (4H). hope it help. gtgl

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:50 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
I try now and watch some very ST charts GBPUSD and USDJPY 15 min with 25 / 50 MAs - they seems to be both turning up..

USA BAY 20:14 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
should read " always buy "

USA BAY 20:13 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN,

I don't know whether you experience this, GBP/JPY almost never seem to follow technical analysis. It's like it has it own brain and that brain almost seems to go up than down. In the last month I always but GBP/JPY when it closes and out of 15 times doing that it went up 13 times. So I may sound foolish but that was what i came up with. I feel GBP/JPY will continue to 250 which will be exhautive.

As Par always says and I think it does make a lot of sense, NOBODY WANTS A STRONGER YEN.

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:31 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
anyone long GBPJPY?
I tried long at 238.84 and averaged again at 67
Jan 11 and 27 lows are my trendline support where the current lows at 238.30 came - so anyone think this Support will hold?

- - there is current confusion as I read controversal opinions on carry trades - 1 side says G7 will bring unwinding and 2 side says carry is at its highs and also some M&A activity...
any comments are appreciated!

Syd 19:02 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD opens sharply lower, last 0.6893 vs yesterday's 0.6959 local close, after being hit by wave of heavy selling from offshore banks, funds, leverage accounts, says Bank of NZ currency strategist Danica Hampton. Notes it's difficult to pinpoint catalyst for sharp fall, with suggestions global investment banks issued "sell NZD/USD" recommendation, along with lingering carry trade concerns before next week's G7. Adds NZD/USD continues to look vulnerable, though should be supported by demand from bargain hunters, local corporates around 0.6840/50; resistance 0.6920.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:39 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
The only real action I see right now today is the POTENTIAL for AU to long across the board and that's only if as someone posted below we see a sustained $650 OR ABOVE vs USD. Otherwise FX to me is ho hum for Feb given no radical geopoliticals or natural events occur and we can't predict that anyway. Outahere...rain stopped.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:31 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Rafe, I agree and said I'm fine with world stability at this time and dollar tanking is improbable right now. If USD tanks so to speak it would be either by a terrorist attack that would cripple the country ("event" per se eventually methinks likely but crippling..not likely) or some very severe event(s) natural or geopolitical which would affect adversely US interests abroad. A slowish USD tank tho could in my eyes occur over a space of say a couple years..and that's not "tanking" that's cycling. Looking at long term 10 year USD vs CHF in fact USD is on the upswing path in my eyes anywho.

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:26 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:24 GMT January 30, 2007

yes... i am looking for the fountain of youth...

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:24 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:17 GMT January 30, 2007

The only way I think we look for a ccny crisis valdez is if dollar tanks 600-800 pips in a few minutes, or maybe in a session.... that is the only way... right now smart money is just positioning itself properly to obtain above market gains by valentines day.... remember we have February coming up and NFP then valentines...

LOL..myspace subscribers need lots of foreign exchange to purchase flowers, gifts, for each of their mates in different countries... sailors, soldiers need to do some online commerce for their loved ones... whether it is a girlfriend wife their kids mothers grandmothers etc...

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:24 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Holy Moses Rafe, are you in Kathmandu?

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:17 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Ecuador BTW for those who don't know, uses USD as real official c'ncy like Panama does. The former Ec Sucre c'ncy of several years ago is defunct, shreaded, byebye, used as page markers for books de jour. Argentina uses USDs as a partial c'ncy. So if USD tanks it's significant to at least 3 Latin countries. Ec would be happy in the export sector, crying in the import sector. Since we now import more than we export (trade deficit) then USD shorting would show up as inflation net overall...getting into the scenario I posted about a disaster copy/paste post below abt a coming c'ncy disaster scenario theory.

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:16 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
it's almost 12 pm here now where i am now. almost my bedtime...

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:10 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Rafe, si, agree. I keep close tabs on local econ..ingress of sales taxes from an amigo in local IRS (sri) & questions of local smallshops "how's business?" etc. & agree banks are sharks. I hate: governments, banks, utility co's & airlines in that order. LOL It would behouve the banks to have some EUR accounts however if USD tanks, that way their capital "value" on the books appears (and would be) higher than if it were all in USD upon tanking. You and I are tossing theory around here mixed with practical common sence and fact..munchies for a rather dull trading day. Normally I post on FF at night after NY "close" when trading is nil.

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:01 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:50 GMT January 30, 2007

yes i agree with remittances.. but just giving more of an option, do you want us to rob you the american way or the european way...? lol

banks don't care less if you make or lose money... they are just interested in making a profit and keeping their jobs.

simple...

what you need to look at is how active the commercial businesss are meaning the small businesses, the man with the mini market selling stuff to the locals, the lunchman how many lunches he sells per day, how many heads the barber get's per day, the tailor that makes children's uniforms or stitches clothing for men and women things like that.... look at their emotional sentiment how much money do they themselves earn in doing their work, and go spend it with the same people mentioned in thissame paragraph... fundamentals are always fudged because politico's always want to remain in power... however shrewd business acumen is what helps to make economies boom hence better fundamentals and better trading ranges..

agree?

USA BAY 17:56 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

As always Jkt to the rescue. Just one more thing could you please give me the magnetic price for EUR/AUD please. Really Appreciate it very much. Thank a lot

jkt-aye 17:52 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:34 ... only one magnetic level i have 1.1323 (1H) and consider the divergence on daily basis. although still possible to bounce back toward 1.1151 before that. glgt

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:50 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Rafe, you are correct but don't think the banks here in Ec lose money on trading. They don't. As U said they do make money on spreads when conversions are necessary for business. Some banks are literal ripoffs, some only make what platforms make and a few pips on the top...it depends on the bank. Pichincha's trading room for example makes 1 to 2 pips above my platform and sometimes beats my platy! Another reason for the EUR accounts here is that 500k Ec's are working in Spain sending money to families here...money change houses in Spain are thieves so to compete, Ec banks are offering a straight EUR account so they can make the conversion and at less cost than money changers in Spain. So I agree with you in part.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:45 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Political Forum: quito_ecuador_valdez 17:43 GMT January 30, 2007

About what I see as possible "fear" scenarios that could affect FX & prec. metals.

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:39 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
valdez// they make more money like this... it makes no sense they buy euros or euro denominated instruments from the internaonal market and have to just keep for their own use.... what they do is make money with swaps...

peso for usd
euro for pesos
euros for usd...

and then there is also the hedging, the euro denominated instruments etc... banks lose money in trading... better to make money from the spreads and pass on their losses to their confused customers who are just scared into frenzy by the dollars tailspin and loss of value... the south american bankers go to bed so happy they have no time or thought to try kama sutra with their secretaries during the sanchocho break...


quito_ecuador_valdez 16:07 GMT January 30, 2007
Here in Ecuador for example we see the writing on the walls in the form of last year banks decided to offer EUR accounts as well as USD accounts. I theorize to protect the public, at least to OFFER to protect the public...no one can say the banks didn't offer.

USA BAY 17:34 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone comment on AUD/NZD please. THANKS

JHB Steve 17:30 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez

Couldn't agree more, well said. GT

USA BAY 17:28 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
[MORE ON KIWI SELLOFF] Macro accounts and models joined the earlier twin US in...
[MORE ON KIWI SELLOFF] Macro accounts and models joined the earlier twin US investment house sales on the break below 0.6930. These accounts have been broad sellers, with negative flows seen versus Aud and Jpy in particular also. The moves coincide with a number of recommendations from institutions to short Nzd, with one UK name a Cad buyer against. With a RBNZ hike still well factored despite earlier negative local housing data, we suspect bull frustration at numerous 0.70 topside failures is the most likely catalyst. One US house suggests that Nzd/Usd is now looking very bearish on the weekly charts, while a clear break below the 55-day moving average at 0.6890 would be another bearish signal. If so, we could see a run to the 2007 low of 0.6842 over coming sessions.

USA BAY 17:28 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
[NZD/USD] has finally tripped the key 0.6927/22 support area after the US inv...
[NZD/USD] has finally tripped the key 0.6927/22 support area after the US investment bank sales finally aided renewed weakness. Large stop losses tripped through this area has helped exacerbate the weakness, along with more selling through the 0.6913 50 dma and thus technically unlocking an assault on 0.6887. Talk of hefty hedge fund sales ahead of tonight's key local trade data has been noted on the way down, although chatter of some downside option protection activity is also doing the rounds. Renewed Nzd/Yen selling has added to recent weakness along with UK clearer sales noted.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:25 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Steve, I see that too. I think a sustained $650 AU would reflect buyins by hedgers such as myself vs world economic shakeup caused by various feared events including massive side taking if trigger(s) start major powers involvements in military ops. I'm light on AU because as you said, iffyness in that commodity. If peace pervales in coming months and it seems stable, then AU will short, USD will long, CHF will short (given SNB doesn't hike). But U.S. Fed has a bumpy road ahead in the way it interprets inflation vs stagnation. It's not how we the trader interprets it, it's how el Fed does.

manchester 17:22 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
thanks Steve, its broken down again at around 647.

USA BAY 17:21 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN BAHRAIN 1,

wHAT is your view on EUR?AUD please. thanks

JHB Steve 17:15 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
manchester 16:17 GMT January 30, 2007
any views on gold? i think it wants to go long but keeps stalling before 650

If gold makes it to 650, it will be aiming at 700, if not be cautious.It's been a little psycopathic lately !

Como Perrie 17:13 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
okidoki..end of day...

Now for an average idea of further days/weeks developments considering all recent talks from a month ago to present from all the insitutional and press reports that abound of the potentially destabilizing nature of the monstrously large carry trade deficits.

What currency would you hold, stay neutral or get rid off.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:01 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:55 // ..goes to show you the bravado was bs. It's getting like when EZ fatcats said, "Oh, we're not worried about USD. let it do what it wants" when USD was 1.34 EUR. Like hades. They seem to publicize a laid back view just before getting their panties in a bunch.

RIC fxq 16:55 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Syd 16:48 GMT

Most impartial observers feel JPY does reflect Japan's feeble economy. What happened to all the EU bravado about a "strong Euro" not being a problem? :)

Syd 16:48 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
ECOFIN: France's Breton: Yen Must Reflect Japanese Strength-
French Finance Minister Thierry Breton claimed victory Tuesday in his battle to force European Union finance ministers to up pressure on Japan to support the value of the yen.
"The yen must reflect the true value of the Japanese economy," Breton said at press conference during a meeting of the 27 European Union finance ministers. "intensive discussion" had been held on exchange rates, acknowledging that the focus this time was yen, not dollar, weakness. The European single currency has strengthened against the yen in recent weeks, with the euro hitting an all-time high of Y158.20.

"We looked at all of the aspects of exchange-rate issues, in particular the one that you mentioned, the euro/yen," Juncker said. "We will be talking about that at the G7 meeting."


Full Article on Futures Forum ..

ABHA FXS 16:33 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
usdchf target
1/1.2445
2/1.2413
3/1.2390

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:30 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Review what was "said" in the last fat cat meeting in Singapore last fall regarding yen and you'll have a near verbatim repeat this time. All that will be done in that meeting will be to drink $5/bottle Perrier water and enjoy fancy suppers and night shows girlie on someone else's tab.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:25 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Good point JP. Remember I was just quoting another post elsewhere... I wanted feedback on that which you so kindly gave..thanks amigo.

Syd 16:23 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
ECOFIN: Steinbrueck:G7 Mtg To Discuss Euro, Yen Exchange Rate
German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said Tuesday worries over the weak Japanese yen would be one of the subjects under discussion at the upcoming meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized nations in Essen
Germany FinMin:EU Mins "Very Concerned" About Currencies
German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said Tuesday worries over the weak Japanese yen would be one of the subjects under discussion at the upcoming meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized nations in Essen

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:23 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Au seems to act differently at times vs USD as compared to USD vs majors. I'd say increasing fear of a 3rd world war is supporting AU somewhat but profit taking might be the resistance force...or simply that "fear" has a price of $650USD in terms of today's "fear" factor. Also, Democrats and some dove Republicans in US's congress are seeing the huge accumulation of debt sold to Asia and eyeing with some panic what COULD happen if the house of cards suddenly dumps. I'd say there is some exiting planned for holders of USD and at least "part" of those exits, and exits from yen will show up in gold demand. Just offering a few trading ideas here fellas while today's mkt bops around in hohum ranges...

Mtl JP 16:21 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
valdez 15:50 / hmm.. "As is so often forgotten, interest rates are merely the price of money, which like any price is determined by supply and demand." according to Peter Schiff.

That, my trading brother, also raises the issue of definition of "inflation" or, as the FED and - I dare accuse - the media are all too ready to substitute for price-inflation, when infact price-inflation is BUT a manifestation of inflation (increase in money supply)


To see what I mean: Fed Has Yet to Set Target on Inflation (NYT)

---

The FED's published M3 values for dec 1990 say that M3 (money supply) stood at 4154.7 (or 4166.1 seasonaly un-adjusted). Congressman Ron Paul, on jan 29th 2007, said "money supply has nearly tripled just since 1990.". US dept of labour's BLS has an "Inflation calculator" that calculates that $100 in 1990 has the same buying power as $154.25 in 2006.

Care to reconcile the discrepancy ?

manchester 16:17 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
any views on gold? i think it wants to go long but keeps stalling before 650

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:07 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Rafe: agreed. Reposting exerpts from a message board, can't give names/sources here of who due to GV rules...
"A substantial decline in real estate prices will either produce a severe recession on its own or cause one arising from other factors. In either case, result will likely be Fed "rescueing" w/ inflationary monetary policy. Inflation will push long-term rates yet higher, causing more loans to default. Look at Michigan & Louisana. With credit destroyed & home equity & jobs lost, foreign creditors will rush for the exits sending USD into a tailspin. The Fed will be forced to buy all of the paper foreign lenders no longer want, which savings-short Americans cannot afford. Domestic money supply will explode sending consumer prices soaring...more inflation, more Fed raises, more loan defaults in a hyperbolic spiraled panic."

So, increasing the money supply causes inflation, & they'll have to raise rates to stop that. Everyone knows why they do not want inflation, right? The MAIN reason is that MANY Government payments & programs are adjusted yearly, based on inflation. Take Social (In)Security. Imagine inflation reported at 10% (which many say it actually is), and SS payments having to go up 10%!!! Talk about government obligations skyrocketing..

Here in Ecuador for example we see the writing on the walls in the form of last year banks decided to offer EUR accounts as well as USD accounts. I theorize to protect the public, at least to OFFER to protect the public...no one can say the banks didn't offer.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:58 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Am staying with long term CHF postion in CDs and XAU on platform. XAU "seems" to on daily-year chart to have broken north out of a triangle: draw support line from peak mid May 06 to 1st week Jan 07, support line from mid June 06 to around Jan6 07. Approximately it broke around $642 peaking at $654.80 briefly but maintaining steeply angled support from Jan 8th. I look at AU to get ideas about USD in general and as a hedge...today so far a $5 range heading north. I don't day trade so any posts from me would be longer term freight train observations rather than individual railroad tie bumps.

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:56 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
then they can always drop or raise their rates or leave them neutral...

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:55 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:50 GMT January 30, 2007

...lol...all they need to do is give a hint... god will do the rest...

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:54 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Euro trapped within a range until Valentines week... hopefully we'll try to shake free first week of February... the rest of it is a Valentine's kiss and dinner at Red Lobsters...

gl,gt.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:50 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Adding to the USD bears, suggest reading this. Basically the article gives a realestate loan default scenario which has two options..fall of US econ or fall of USD. Take your choice the article says. Fed this time according to the article is damed if it raises rates, damed if it doesn't. Intersting read.

Cannes Oil man 15:40 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Further losses on NZD against US$ are now dependant on major's and yen..

Tough there has been a good amount of liquidation.I4m myslef looking at 6840 for a real break out..
Ranging markets , with lots of people entering now at the end of the food chain short.
I prefer entering long here, going against the "break out" (we were here 2 weeks ago, so for me it's range) , with stop were the break out is (broken lows of 2 weeks or so)..
gl gt

HK Kevin 15:30 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
For Kiwi, my intraday key support is 6870, now testing.

HK Kevin 15:28 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 15:04 GMT, NZD trades below last week's low 6908 is not a good sign. I have a short from 6972 opened last Fri, but closed today too early at 6918. Not patience enough.

Hong Kong Ahe 15:22 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
stokholm se 15:15 - Please dont post every of your trading record without cutting spaces by copy and paste. Your posts do push other posts down to the end of bottom of the forum and disappear.

stokholm se 15:15 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Tuesday
TIME: 16.20


EURJPY


SELL

AT: 157.74

TP: 50

STOP: 70

OR

TRAILLING: After taking 60 profit, 28 step

hk ab 15:11 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
thanks.

Cali mmm 15:11 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
ab, if you are looking for US confidence, it was 110.3 vs. 110 exp.

Global-View GVI 15:10 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
From GVI:

GVI 14:59 GMT January 30, 2007
CB cons conf 110.3 vs. revised 110.0 in Dec

Bahrain BAH1 15:09 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
US Jan consumer confidence 110.3 from Dec's revised 110.0 (prelim 109.0) and against forecasts for 110.0.

Bahrain BAH1 15:09 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
ok buying NZD here at 88 with stop at .6857 GL

Bahrain BAH1 15:09 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
ok buying NZD here at 88 with stop at .6857 GL

hk ab 15:07 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
anyone has US data?

stockholm se 15:07 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Tuesday
TIME: 16.09 pm CET


GBPUSD

SELL


AT: 1.9625

From entering position in pips!
TP: 30

STOP: 70

OR

TRAILLING: After taking 55 profit, 30 step

Como Perrie 15:05 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
btw UsdJpy to touch 123 to 126 before anything or just counter trend moves. hence some bullishenes on the US rates front yet to come, but would not play so into the FOMC, maybe the minutes.

Cannes Oil man 15:04 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Meaning the lows for E$ , GBP$ should be in place..Can't be certain for NZD and OZI as those guys are controolled by yen at present..Should be ok though.

gl gt

Cannes Oil man 15:02 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Market always expecting better than expected this days for the US...So an expected number is actually a mild negative.

Como Perrie 15:01 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Global-View GVI 14:57 GMT January 30, 2007

I've seen that news early London already, guess an excuse for some different reasoned flows. Maybe the big guys setting anew far many things we yet do not see from charts or news services.

good luck anyway
bibi

Como Perrie 14:59 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:53 GMT January 30, 2007

Yeap interesting pair, but did streched a bit as of late the pairs watched (this after the early year minor carry trading companies collapsing).

For now am watching just those 1.2945 and 1.9600 levels of interest am just curious what happens there ahead of the FOMC - in case some more serious players decide to move.

Global-View GVI 14:57 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
This was the news that sent eur/yen lower;

GVI 14:54 GMT January 30, 2007
EU's Steinbrueck said forex will be discussed at the G7 meeting and that includes eur/yen.

LDN Jez 14:57 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Looks like someone has a heads up on this fig

HK Kevin 14:54 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Another round of carry trades unwinding?

Cbj Jake 14:53 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Mtl jp - "147 to 132 in sec first" - That precise bit of wisdom is "The Big Kahuna". I had a quiet laugh at the inanity of larger numbers when one is already "flash frozen".
Thank you for that.

Cannes Oil man 14:53 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:41 GMT January 30, 2007

Though for ECB , bankruptcy isn't much of a problem , just like US...Print more, more bonds , run the deficit model.
As long as u can run deficits , bankruptcy isn't much of a problem..Just look at US deficits..Russian central bank was forced into bankruptcy by western governments to weed out old ideas , force them into capitalism...they defaulted on what is probably a few days of US deficits..
---

Anyways , this NZD better start jumping up soon, as a break under 6850 could prove a fatal and place a major dent in the bullish move...(65--70 upmove).

Bahrain BAH1 14:53 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
flat now...waiting for US data.. GL

Gen dk 14:47 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 14:47 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Closed gbp/jpy shorts from 240.00

Hong Kong Qindex 14:46 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Downside targeting point 1.1783.

Como Perrie 14:43 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Yeap that Cad at times offers good opportunities, but do stay almost flat ahead fo those FOMCs and the like, as the crowd perceptions down in Wall street are too schizofrenic for my taste - regarding the rate outcome. As far as I remember from last week It was bullish with the 10 year bond squeeze over 5.85 years long resistance yet virging

Como Perrie 14:41 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
For strategic am considering to curb the bond curve from exploding the US one particularly. All in all this is a thousads billions market that if flops the only outcome I do see is the IIIWW far behind the imaginations of those who are studieng previous crises.

Yesterday very interesting on the WSJ was an detailed article about the Amaranth fund and the natural gas implications..amazing those guys at times held 30 pct of the traded contract on that market..As usul they pissed themselves out and methinks in some years we might assist to Central banks bankrupticies, since they changed into active from passive...yang from ying or whatever.

Bahrain BAH1 14:39 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
think time to buy Kiwi with tights stops

NYC 14:39 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
ab, zero chance

Cannes Oil man 14:39 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
$CAD finally approaching the range low..

Bahrain BAH1 14:38 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Los Angeles Mojave 14:27 GMT January 30, 2007
Bahrain --- what time screen --- hourly, weekly, 4 hour etc...is your Aud/USD 200 day MA? thanks

Hi Mojave....
DAily chart 100day MA at 0.7706 GL

Como Perrie 14:37 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Most probably some a hundred billions are sort of strategic and the other 20-40 that remains of the hundreds additional from beginning are used to cut markets key levels before the trends expand.

hk ab 14:37 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
anyone see a surprising hike tomorrow?

Como Perrie 14:35 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:31 GMT January 30, 2007

not so sure about that
regarding China is 70 pct of Its assets in Usds..

regarding the losses of the ECB think they are terribly in a messy constant intervention and trying to curb markets very badly as for Its proficiency..Last week the euro lost some and the ECB lost less then the previous weeks..Hence they are full of Usds and Treasury bonds particularly ..take a look at TICs

Cannes Oil man 14:31 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:26 GMT January 30, 2007

True though , there is also the other way of looking at things..

China holding 1 TRILLION US$..Now ECB holding nothing...Who's holding risk?

Los Angeles Mojave 14:27 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain --- what time screen --- hourly, weekly, 4 hour etc...is your Aud/USD 200 day MA? thanks

Como Perrie 14:26 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:09 GMT January 30, 2007

Regarding the direction of the nEuro, except those coupla tens pips up or down which is not a direction, took a detailed look last days and am yet puzzled. A very strange mixture of levels do appear and things are far from certain to be called either ways (hence the ECB is doing a fantastic job but loosing tonnes of taxpayers money after has centralised most desks and contols in the late 90s the ECB lost more than 22 pct of It's reserves for holding the market unbiased, thise while other more smarter CBs are making tonnes of money and with growing reserves the ECB is already close to have lower reserves than the growing ones of the Russian Central Bank - lower already than the Korean ones and many others following) hence the politics of europe are a disaster from many aspects. Not to forget the constiution missing due contrary referendums in some countries that allowed citizens to decide--- in copla words sort of ol feudal/monarchic/religous regime)

Bahrain BAH1 14:20 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Consumer Confidense at 15GMT.....Get ready guys. GL

Cannes Oil man 14:19 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Quite strange all this, ECB is trying to make FED's printing press a kid house...And still reserves are next to nothing...

No wonder other CB's still see $ as overvalued.

Como Perrie 14:16 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:09 GMT January 30, 2007

:))

would you imagine in coupla years globalisation censored disappear and so the nEuro. would be nice to throw coupla shots onto the ol dmark and the classic lira devaluations coupla years then.

good for ol timers as we are lol

Cannes Oil man 14:14 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Yes Caba, they stop hunted the shorts first.

Philadelphia Caba 14:10 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
KIWI: Has fallen over 1% from the European open, traders reporting large sell interest from two US investment houses and a US bank going through all day. Rate has broken support at $0.6920 in NY trade, models now being forced to sell as a result. Traders report good buying of euro-kiwi, and kiwi-yen selling, with carry trades being unwound ahead of the upcoming G7 meeting. (mni report)

Cannes Oil man 14:09 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:07 GMT January 30, 2007

This is actually good..At least for what concerns the direction of the Euro.

Como Perrie 14:08 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Rome Hedi..good for you..so far the aformentioned levels 1.9620/80 and wider ones are wide published around in the world forecasting. take a look.

Como Perrie 14:07 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Holding this path the ECB is risking bankrupticy in coupla years.
CP

ECB reserves have declined EUR700 mln in the week ending January
26th with reserves now at EUR145.3 bln. Reserves have now declined EUR3.4 bln in the last three weeks. Gold reserves declined EUR36 mln due to sales from one central bank. Gold reserves have declined 114 out of the last 120 weeks.

Cannes Oil man 14:01 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD from last week are up both one 250 the other 300..Time to T/P has the counter move is approaching.(See thursday//friday posts).

GL GT.

Rome Hedi 13:56 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
My GBPUSD sell signal closed with +60 pipe profit.
i found this forecast group with best daily signals.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/

Cali mmm 13:56 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
OK tks Oilman

Cannes Oil man 13:56 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD 7688---7756.

Cannes Oil man 13:55 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 13:47 GMT January 30, 2007

Not playing CAD atm , only GBP , AUD, NZD.
Which are all under pressure from their yen cross.

Mtl JP 13:49 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:28 / admittedly, every coin has two sides:
Big risks to global economy 'receding' (FT)

"Mr Lipsky (former vice- chairman of JP Morgan investment bank and a long-standing optimist on financial markets, is now the most senior US official at the IMF) was not concerned about the weakness of the Japanese yen, which could be caused by the "carry trade", heavy borrowing in Japan to buy higher yielding assets elsewhere.

"This is a subject, like asset bubbles, that is easy to talk about, but there is something structural in the net outflow of Japanese saving," he said.

Cali mmm 13:47 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
So your range on the low side is giving you 1.1792 today but you are anticipating a break with a 1.1740 target? is that correct? TIA.

Bahrain BAH1 13:47 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
NZD$: 0.6913 (50days MA).......
Short-term tech levels:0.6890, Jan. 16 low
0.6861, Jan. 10 low
0.6844, Jan. 8 low and key support
GOOD LUCK.

Cannes Oil man 13:46 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
NZDUSD 6910---7001 Today's range..

Cannes Oil man 13:42 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
But once 1.1792 breaks , we go in 3rd-5th day pattern located at 1.1762..unless Eur/cad supports it making it break 1.1856.

Cali mmm 13:42 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
TKS

Bahrain BAH1 13:42 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Hi Oil man...did not see u for few days...we miss your comments. GL

Cannes Oil man 13:40 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
1.1792---1.1856 exact high/low predicted.

Cannes Oil man 13:37 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
1.1740 for today.

Gen dk 13:35 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cali mmm 13:33 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, Any target for USD/CAD today? What do you think of current level?

Cannes Oil man 13:29 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Stops were run to the upside , hurddle was at 6970..from there profit taking from the sharks..

Good buy around here.
gl gt

Philadelphia Caba 13:29 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
small aussie long with stop below .7700

shanghai beyond_destiny 13:28 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
buy euro 1.2965/1.297, S/L 1.2945 T/P OPEN

Hong Kong Ahe 13:28 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:02 GMT - Oh friend, you scared the lovely sheeps. NZDYEN is leading now to retreat.

Philadelphia Caba 13:28 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
any news out on kiwi?

Cannes Oil man 13:26 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Catching some NZD$ at 6920 might prove beneficial for one's balance.

Risk 40.
gl gt

BEIRUT MK 13:04 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
short eurusd at 1.2974 target 1.28+

Gen dk 13:04 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mtl JP 13:02 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:54 / Falling yen sparks carry trade alert (Financial Times

..."According to Barclays Capital, speculative carry trades have reached their highest level since the Russian crisis in 1998. ... .. ...It estimates that these amount to $34bn in net terms, calculated in constant 1998 prices for the yen, Swiss franc, sterling and Australian dollar. ... .. ...Such a shift occurred during the 1998 Russian crisis, when the yen suddenly rose from Y147 to Y112 in a matter of days,"...

friend added: hmm... wrong stat to quote, it went from 147 to 132 in seconds first. fwiw.

Como Perrie 13:02 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Both the EuroGroup"s Juncker and the German Chancellor, Merkel, have claimed that the ECB"s independence must not be called into question. The comments come on the back of the French discussions over the independence of the European Central Bank.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:00 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:54 GMT //
tnx! I like to trade the Yen crosses but it really is very weird as the JPY has some very strange ways to move and I am easily persuaded that the pair is controlled...

Hong Kong Ahe 12:54 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:31 - USDYEN is well manipulated by Japanese. If USDYEN goes to range 122-125, US trade deficit will increase. US Bush government would not like to see any increase in this figure, especially 2007 is close to the election year of 2008. The japanese will keep a close eye to keep it in a narrow range like 2006.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:44 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
basically the idea was that once sucha "name" presents its view to the public - it creates some impact - if they are in position and right on their analysis then the info impact just reinforces the move in their direction and thus creates liquidity so they can exit...
and then one could try counter trade.. however the timing part of this idea is not defined and I really don;t have an idea how to anayse this assumption..

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:31 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:23 GMT //
very interesing!
I actually am very interested in how the info influences the market - and had this idea that once an info like this is circulating around there is a good chance that after some short period of time when those who produced this info unwind their positions due to the info impact - then you could try and counter trade it... however it's just speculation and no analysis to support it..

Hong Kong Qindex 12:28 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : A projected resistant level has been established at 1.6287 - 1.6294 and it is good until the end of this month.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:26 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
ADK - I'm not knowledgeable to comment and it is also a LT forecast I guess...
however I posted it for info and also because there was an interesting post on GVI by lg..
GLGT!

Hong Kong Ahe 12:23 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:02 GMT - Last year also in Jan, these big boys reviewed to say the same thing. In the forum achive, you can find it out. But market players treated them as prey and went against the opposite direction. Within the whole year of 2006, USDYEN was under the line of 120. This is "?" world. We are in the dog house now.

London ADK 12:22 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn - That is intereresting. so they see eur/usd at 1.36.

Athens MK 12:21 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:10 GMT January 30, 2007

Cool.... I glad to see we are on the same wavelength :)

Hong Kong Qindex 12:10 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 12:03 GMT - Hi! It was a general comment which I copid from my clients' page for GBP/USD.

Athens MK 12:03 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:46 GMT January 30, 2007
GBP/USD : I would assume that the market is trying to test this point 1.9384.
======================

Hi Qindex, if you were addressing me with the above comment the answer is a definite yes... If the currency is going to retrace it has a tendency to snap back and yesterday night snap at 1.9550 is the usual sign... Now once it hit 1.9725 anything can happen including the resumption of the downward momentum shown on the weekly chart... But 1.9385 area is a important support level.

Your absolutely right when you call 1.969+ needs price action to close above to alleviate downward momentum in the swing cycle...

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:02 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
1202 GMT [Dow Jones] JP Morgan has reviewed its 2007 forecasts for the yen to show further weakness. It now sees EUR/JPY at Y170 from Y158 area currently. It also expects USD/JPY to fall to Y125 from Y121.90 area currently. "Beyond extremely low levels of rates, strong FDI outflows due to robust Japanese and global growth, and pension-related outflows due to an ageing population will also push the yen lower in 2007," bank says.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:54 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
1146 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/CHF looked like it was in the process of topping out around 1.62, notes JP Morgan. However, the bank says Tuesday's push to fresh highs of 1.6257 proves this was not the case, and with little sign of a top the cross could easily extend towards 1.63. EUR/CHF now at 1.6236.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:21 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GEP & Ahe - thank you very much for your advice!!

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:17 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
as I dig a bit into the cross I have a trendline support on 2hours chart that comes around 238.80 / 239 this coincides with this report I got:
[GBP/JPY] continues to be the big driver in broader Sterling trade. There has been an about turn of sorts after the earlier 240.00 region test failure. The move coincides with softer than forecast UK data, i.e. Dec mortgage approvals fall to 113k versus 129k the month previous, and talk that the UK clearer has finished their good size buy interest in the cross. Stops were tripped on the return through 239.40. We now expect decent buying interest to re-emerge into the 238.95/00 European open zone, although more stops are tipped below there also. The major focus on Gbp/Jpy today coincides with a US investment house report, which says that market attention on the "carry trade" is at/around historic highs. //IGM

Dallas GEP 11:16 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
kap, breaks of the 200MA are more significant IF they are followed up by 4, 8 and daily chart print of same average. AT market price of 240.00, GBP/JPY was very streached out especially since gbp/jpy longs seemed to be more of an indication of YEN weakness that of GBP strength. Since YEN is basically OVERSOLD across most pairs currently, all yen pairs are due for correction and gbp.jpy is generally the leading racehorse. MArket IMO will print 239,00 at least and you notice now how usd/jpy is starting to short a bit also

Hong Kong Ahe 11:14 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:00 GMT - As you know Yenophobes are playing carrying trade in the current forex market, the best indicator is to watch all charts of cross. Open the chart of EURYEN, overlap it with EURUSD. Open another chart of GBPYEN, overlap it with GBPUSD. Other charts, like CHFYEN with USDCHF, AUDYEN with AUDUSD, NZDYEN with NZDUSD. See if all cross move simultaneously or one is leading another. It may help you to trade GBPYEN, if you are interested to this pair.

Single chart indicator, like MA of a pair is not much valid in this cross driven market, till people not interest to play cross and back to major and primary move. GL and GT.

Como Perrie 11:12 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
tomorrow's FOMC keeping me sleepy

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:11 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
by the way - is there someone to tell - when using MAs like 50, 100 or 200 DMA - they are to be used as S or R but when watching the Daily charts??
is that right? I mean they mean smtg only on bigger timeframes?

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:00 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
anyone watchignthe Hourly chart on GBPJPY - it is sitting just above the 200MA.. I know hourly chart is not that good compared to Daily - however - could we assume the break of 200MA on Hourly as a bullish signal?

Dallas GEP 10:59 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
240.00 gbp/jpy short order got executed while away. Eur/gbp shorts still in. BAY, the reason I closed usd/jpy shorts at 121.61 is because i believed there would be some large orders that were pending around this area LONG. I still beleive tho that usd/jpy is still a good short from 121.80-122.10

madrid mm 10:58 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:50 GMT January 30, 2007
would this be politically correct 8)?

When your adsl connection is down and you are trying to deal with a 56k modem, it is not fun i can assure you !!! it all seems in slow motion.........

Portugal camisa 10:53 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
watch 27th december on cable, very similar intraday pattern; another run to 1.969 would be the place to short b4 the free fall to 1.96

Hong Kong Qindex 10:17 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : A projected barrier is expected at 121.83 - 121.89. Downside targeting points are 120.54 and 121.37.

Rome Hedi 10:10 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
stokholm se 10:05 GMT January 30, 2007

see this page
www.dailyfx.com

stokholm se 10:05 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
does sumone know a link from where i can find news about USA Consumer Confidence ?
thanks

Rome Hedi 09:59 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD is in correction support is 1.9550 and resistance is 1.9730. with 1.9695 touch it is heading around 1.9600 and preparing to return higher around 1.9700/1.9750

stokholm se 09:53 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
The signal BUY GBPUSD, Monday 01/29-07 successed with 45 pips!

PAR 09:50 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Since BOJ is less politically independent than other central banks it is maybe worth trying to put some political pressure on the japanese . No ?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:46 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : I would assume that the market is trying to test this point 1.9384.

Athens MK 09:46 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$:
Intraday bias -
Buy: 1.9648
Take profit: 1.9718

This is a potential intraday call for example...

Hong Kong Qindex 09:45 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The projected chart point of the "Trading Reference" at 1.9697 should be used as a reference. I am bias on the downside when the market is trading below this point, 1.9697.

HK RF@ 09:45 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO, Jan 30 (Reuters) - European governments plan to warn the Bank of Japan at next week's Group of Seven meeting that its reluctance to raise interest rates is distorting the value of an already weak yen, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday.

What do they mean by: "Plan to warn the BOJ".

Are they foolish or what?
What was the effect on the markets (up to now) by that warning intention? Nothing!!!


This is what they they wannabe: "Deus ex machina" (LOL)


{WIKIPEDIA: is a Latin phrase that is used to describe an unexpected, artificial, or improbable character, device, or event introduced suddenly in a work of fiction or drama to resolve a situation or untangle a plot(an angel suddenly appearing to solve problems)}
-------------------------------------------------------------

Pustolate one: A heated boiler being watched will not explode.

Lemma:If the worst scenario may happen bet it will

Postulate Two: A heated boiler being watched by many, will definetly explode at all faces.

Deus ex machina? Maybe a 1995 earthquake Kobe size hmmmm

In other words something which will capture all by sudden surprise, otherwise it will just roll on the same way.

Bahrain BAH1 09:42 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 09:38 GMT January 30, 2007

Thanks....GL

Athens MK 09:38 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain BAH1 09:34 GMT January 30, 2007

No.... SL: 1.9385 is a level that if broken signifies a new trend for the pound... When the market is trading below that it has significant pressure to go down to 1.90

Hong Kong Qindex 09:34 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : A projected supporting point is expected at 1.2505. Upside targeting points are 1.2594 and 1.2614.

Athens MK 09:34 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 09:26 GMT January 30, 2007

That is not how we play our R/R.... We do quite a bit of trading that is not shown here. This is just to show market direction in a swing trade, not to actual use for trades. You must use your own trading styles and R/R......

Bahrain BAH1 09:34 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 09:25 GMT January 30, 2007
GBP/$:
Buy: 1.9655
SL: 1.9385

Hi there...You mean 1.9585 S/L ? Thanx.

PAR 09:33 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Like with past G7 finance meetings european officials have a big mouth before the meeting , have a nice diner at the G7 and results are NIHIL . To reduce CO emmissions and taxes eliminating G7 finance meetings would be a brilliant idea .

Gen dk 09:32 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai NS 09:26 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
That's strange risk reward ratio

Hong Kong Qindex 09:26 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : A projected supporting level is expected at 1.1818 - 1.1822. Upside targeting points are 1.1854 and 1.1898.

Athens MK 09:25 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$:

Buy: 1.9655
SL: 1.9385
Target 1: 19725
Target 2: 19775
Target 3: trailing stop or reevaluate market

Further buys should occur on the low side of the daily range unless SL is hit... Use R/R when doing further buys -

This is a swing trade... not intraday but you can use it to give yourself the intraday bias....

The above is just some targets based on my analysis of the market... It does not mean that it will occurred but more for potential direction of the market.... :)

Hong Kong Qindex 09:23 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : A projected resistant level is expected at 0.7735 - 0.7739. Downside targeting points are 0.7670 and 0.7692.

PAR 09:08 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
German Brandenburg Jan CPI - 0.2 % . Germany unexpectedly entering deflationary spiral ? LOL .

Hong Kong Qindex 09:08 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market is consolidating between 1.2947 - 1.2975. Downside targeting points are 1.2812 and 1.2918.

Auckland trotter 09:04 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
There appears some up pressure for the EUR/USD. But I see for the price to continue any further up movement it has to break the level around 1.2971 from the 5min 12hr chart.

The price is hitting the 23.8% fib around 1.2967 on the 4hr 20day chart which makes an interesting level on this chart. This level also appears to be a resistance level on the 5min 5day chart.

Looks like some ups and downs for now until the UK market settles down.

Rome Hedi 09:02 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD short at 1.9680 with 1.9620 TP target and 1.9710 SL. 1.9600 target may seen too.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are in ABC sequence for more info see
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/files/Outlook/

Mumbai NS 09:01 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud day euro also looks soft here any posts there Doc ty

Hong Kong Qindex 08:51 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : the market is still under pressure when it is trading below 1.9697.

ldn jp 08:50 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 08:34 GMT January 30, 2007

Yes good analysis yesterday Athens MK - I am not in a trade at the moment but would be interested to know what your next targets are after 19725 for gbp/usd

Hong Kong Qindex 08:48 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY : A projected resistant level is expected at 97.37 - 97.41. Downside targeting points are 96.56 and 96.77.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:45 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : A projected resistant level is expected at 103.37 - 103.38. Downside targeting points are 102.69 and 102.84.

Syd 08:38 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD's interday outlook is negative within its 1.2880-1.3040 inter-week range extremes, says Royal Bank of Scotland. Now at 1.2966, the bank pegs resistance at 1.2980 and 1.3005 and favors selling strength to 1.2990, with a stop at 1.3070, targeting 1.2720.

Gen dk 08:36 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Athens MK 08:34 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Good morning....

GBP/$: Looking for that first target 1.9725 to be touched sometime today... It was a good bounce off of the 1.9550 line and fibo support at 1.9512 was even a stronger support...

Hong Kong Qindex 08:29 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : A projected barrier is expected at 93.85 - 93.98. Downside targeting points are 93.13 and 93.54.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:24 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : The market is trying to tackle 2.4744. Upside targeting points are 2.4695 and 2.4726.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:19 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market is trying to tackle 240.76. Upside taregting points are 240.01 and 240.88.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:15 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : A projectd supporting level is expected at 1.6754 - 1.6759. Upside targeting points are 1.6820 and 1.6869.

Mla Evan 08:15 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, thanks, how abt Gbp/Yen?

Hong Kong Qindex 08:10 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is trying to overcome a projected barrier at 158.22 // 158.65. Upside targeting points are 158.20 and 158.57.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:09 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is trying to overcome a projected abrrier at 158.22 // 158.65. Upside targeting points are 158.20 and 158.57.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:03 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : A projected supporting level is expected at 1.5290 - 1.5293. Upside targeting points are 1.5387 and 1.5396.

Mla Evan 08:02 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, your view on Yen crosses appreciated. TIA

Hong Kong Qindex 07:59 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the market is under pressure when it is trading below below 0.6592. Downside targeting points are 0.6570 and 0.6581.

Auckland peat 07:53 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Ninja Beast breakout was there for the taking if you were quick. I got 30 but got out too soon coz that cross scares the bejeezus out of me heheh.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:48 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : A projected supporting level is expected at 1.6208 - 1.6212. The market is trying to overcome a projected barrier at 1.6252// 1.6268. The upside targeting points are 1.6297 and 1.6340.

ldn pw 07:09 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:50 GMT January 30, 2007

Any levels for gbp/usd today please?.......thanks

Geneva 06:04 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B 08:26 GMT January 26, 2007
Food for thought. Euro was at 1.30 this time yesterday and looking to break higher. Now at 1.2900 and looking to break lower... What has changed??? Bond yields perhaps...

Watch those CB'S they will be hovering...

I hope J.B. does not mind me posting.intersting reminder.

HK REVDAX 06:00 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
So Euro made a higher Hi and higher Lo yesterday than last Friday's.

CT Cris 05:50 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Rome Hedi 04:54 GMT January 30, 2007
EURUSD Short at 1.2960 with 1.2920 TP and 1.2980 SL.
========
Hedi..take care it is in uptrend.

Rome Hedi 04:54 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD Short at 1.2960 with 1.2920 TP and 1.2980 SL.

USA BAY 04:04 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

What is your view on USD/JPY. THANKS

Syd 03:42 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
After the flood: how central banks fret once liquidity dries up
By John Plender

Published: January 29 2007 21:31 | Last updated: January 29 2007 21:31

In September 1998 Bill McDonough, the then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, corralled representatives of 14 leading banks into the Fed’s offices at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s financial district and urged them to bail out the ailing Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund. It was a classic central banker’s response to a potential systemic crisis.

“Gentle pressure” is the euphemism often employed to describe such central bank bullying to persuade competing banks to collaborate in the common interest. The interesting question, in the light of huge structural upheavals in financial markets since 1998, is whether the nature of systemic risk has changed and whether a central bank could pull off the same trick today.

FT.com

Falling Yen sparks carry trade alert
Carry trades are deals in which investors borrow in currencies with low interest rates, such as the yen and the Swiss franc, to invest in those that pay higher rates, such as the Australian dollar.

According to Barclays Capital, speculative carry trades have reached their highest level since the Russian crisis in 1998.

It estimates that these amount to $34bn in net terms, calculated in constant 1998 prices for the yen, Swiss franc, sterling and Australian dollar.

The scale of the carry trade – and its concentration in the yen – is raising fears among policymakers that a rapid unwinding of these trades could shake financial markets.
LINK

Bahrain Bahrain1 03:34 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 02:46 GMT January 30, 2007
BAHRAIN BAHRAIN1,
EUR/AUD looks set to drop more. Could you share your views please. Thanks

Hi BAY//// I trade intraday... seems euro is moving down from here...maybe we can see 1.6730 and then 1.6710. GL

Syd 03:31 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Volatilities implied by dollar/yen currency options were unchanged at the short end of the curve in Asia Tuesday, but more players were showing interest in buying options to hedge against a rise in the yen.

As more and more European authorities are calling for a stronger yen to reflect the recovering Japanese economy, options players are wary of a surge in the yen ahead of the next financial heads' meeting of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations next week.

"European authorities who have tolerated the yen's weakness are finally agreeing with France - the yen may be a bit weak," said one options dealer at a European bank. "Risks on the yen's upside are increasing, although (the yen's gains) may end up short-lived."

Overnight, Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's prime minister and chairman of the Eurogroup, made remarks suggesting worries about the yen's recent weakness are now shared among the European finance ministers.

"We are increasingly worried" about the yen, he said.

Spain's finance minister, Pedro Solbes, also said "the yen's excessive volatility is not welcome."

FW CS 03:10 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 02:59 GMT January 30, 2007

I think the conditions are very ripe for one so be long $/Yen at ur peril (if I may speak my own book). Risk is to the downside.

Dallas GEP 03:05 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
BAY, I think it will test 1.6245 again. If it were me I might try a short at 1.6240 IF SEEN with a stop at 1.6267

dc CB 02:59 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 01:48 GMT January 30, 2007
any $/Yen bears out there? Seem hard to find, yen bear a little one sided. THough I think 2007 will be a strong $ year the $ bears need to gain some revenge here.


Yes it's been many moon since we've witnessed a head-snapping yen bear killer move. Prime season though...I hear that global warming has been the cause of many bears Not hibernating this year. Maybe they just get too tired and fall asleep anyway.

USA BAY 02:49 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

I also feel eur/chf wont be able to overcome 1.6245. Think of going short at 1.6225. What do you feel. Thanks

Bahrain Bahrain1 02:49 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Los Angeles Mojave 23:09 GMT January 29, 2007
BAHRAIN --- did i misunderstand your earlier post --- thought you were selling.

Hi there...yes I'm seller..... buying EURAUD put with strike at 1.6770 was costing around 1,500/- euro. but i sold the spot. GL

USA BAY 02:46 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN BAHRAIN1,

EUR/AUD looks set to drop more. Could you share your views please. Thanks

Bahrain Bahrain1 02:46 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:00 GMT January 29, 2007
BAHRAIN BAHRAIN1,
Whats your TP for EUR/AUD please. Good Call. Thanks


Hi there...mine done at 60.....maybe we can see 1.6710 now. Think u can keep stop at cost and let it run if u can.
GOOD LUCK.

FW CS 02:41 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 02:29 GMT January 30, 2007
No, the metals I think are also going to have a good year along with the $ - just like 2005. All fiat money is just paper with different color ink on it.

Bahrain Bahrain1 02:41 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 19:11 GMT January 29, 2007
Hi Frnds ..Sell EURAUD here with 30pips stop for 100pips move. 1.6792 (200day M/A) Good luck.

Hi frnds....p/t done at 60 + 30 pips gL.

Dallas GEP 02:40 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
BAY , eur/chf has been bullish for 2-3 weeks now but I do not think it can sustain a break of 6245 at this time. So the range for the next 2-3 days IMO will be 1.6180 to 1.6245. It will be a VERY slow mover when at it's current level.

USA BAY 02:33 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Can you comment on Eur/Chf short please. Thanks

hk ab 02:29 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
CS//does your bullish stanace on $$ including versus gold and silver as well?

Dallas GEP 02:27 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Closed usd/jpy shorts

Philadelphia Caba 01:50 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Jay, I know, I know ... got it! Thanks.

Global-View GVI 01:48 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
From GVI:

GVI Jay 01:43 GMT January 30, 2007
This is why eur/yen and $/yen dipped a short while ago:

TOKYO, Jan 30 (Reuters) - European governments plan to warn the Bank of Japan at next week's Group of Seven meeting that its reluctance to raise interest rates is distorting the value of an already weak yen, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday.

Citing a draft document drawn up for Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, the European delegation will say that the low Japanese rates threaten "possible distortive effects on the currency and increased risk of disorderly adjustment of the global imbalances", Bloomberg said.... LINK

FW CS 01:48 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
any $/Yen bears out there? Seem hard to find, yen bear a little one sided. THough I think 2007 will be a strong $ year the $ bears need to gain some revenge here.

GVI Jay 01:45 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Caba. You (and others) should use our database. We maintain it for our own use so it is quite accurate.

albertson 01:40 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
I liek usd/jpy becasue I plot momentum & rsi they both point higher, 20 bar ema is teasing the high.. any thoughts on my logic

Mla Evan 01:40 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:27 GMT January 29, 2007
Qindex, any change in views?

albertson 01:39 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
I like usdjpy, overnite I think 70/74 is done

kingston ost 01:37 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
what you think about usd/jpy

kingston ost 01:37 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
what you think about usd/jpy

Philadelphia Caba 01:21 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 00:55 GMT
Thanks Jay, I've had '99 high at 1.6235 ..

Syd 01:21 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD to consolidate, may initially target support at 0.6938. Overall positive outlook remains intact but threatened by USD gains, while AUD weakness also weighs. Medium-term expectation of further RBNZ tightening providing support through yield demand; key level is base of uptrend channel intact since June 28 low of 0.5928 (now at 0.6916); break and consecutive closes below that level would be bearish. Daily chart indicators mixed, MACD neutral, slow stochastic negative, shows Dow Jones technical analysis. Pair may trade short term between 0.6938 and 0.6986 (yesterday's range); any breach of support would target 0.6916, resistance 0.7008 (Jan. 22 high).

Syd 01:19 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Australian business conditions worsened in December as retailers' profits were hit by three rate rises in 2006 though conditions remain buoyant overall, according to a business survey published Tuesday.

National Australia Bank, which compiles the data, said its business conditions index fell 3 points to +11 points in the fourth quarter from the third, down from October's peak of +18.

albertson 01:18 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
any feeling on USDJPY tonite

Gen dk 00:56 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Jay 00:55 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
Caba, eur/chf 1.6245 is the major level. Note the high trade today was 1.6245

GVI Jay 11:59 GMT January 24, 2007
Southport, it is beyond a stretch (IMHO) to look at eur/chf as a retracementm especially using synthetic euro data. The record eur/chf high was set on Jan 7, 1999 at 1.6245 so the major resistance level.

Philadelphia Caba 00:40 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
aussie NAB 4thQ Business Conf. out at 4 vs 6 prev.

Philadelphia Caba 00:39 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
OTTAWA mjw 19:01 GMT January 29, 2007
eur/chf went through strong R at 1.6235 early today...although we're back now, expecting print 1.6300 before 1.6000...(more probability s/t trade is long than short)..
will try place short trade around 1.6310-20, if seen with stops above 1.6350...but again, we have plenty of economic data due this week...gt/gl!

stokholm se 00:13 GMT January 30, 2007 Reply   
pips sorry