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Forex Forum Archive for 01/31/2007

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Gen dk 23:54 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 23:45 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
HOUSTON SG,

Thank you so much. GT/GL

Houston SG 23:39 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
sell GBP/JPY @236.68 stop: open Target: 233.70 margin5%
Also if price pulls up to 237.00 sell again with another 5% margin but have a stop on the second position at 238.90. Do not put a stop on the first position and keep the same target for both. The only time you add to a losing trade is if you plan it ahead of time and have a stop, which is what I am doing this time.

Syd 23:37 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The rate at which hedge funds shut down last year declined as compared with 2005 as the industry became more institutionalized and there were more barriers to entry, consultant Hennessee Group said Wednesday.

The firm reported that 5.1% of funds it tracked were liquidated in 2006 because of dwindling trading opportunities, poor performance, career moves or other reasons. That's down from a 5.4% attrition rate in 2005 and a 6.2% rate in 2004, Hennessee added.

The hedge fund industry has grown rapidly in the past decade. There are now roughly 8,000 funds overseeing more than $1.4 trillion in assets. That quick expansion sparked concerns that more new entrants in the business would struggle and eventually shut down or suffer big losses.

The collapse of $9 billion hedge fund firm Amaranth Advisors LLC last year heightened those concerns.

USA BAY 23:33 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
HOUSTON SG,

Could you elaborate please. Thanks

Houston SG 23:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The signal posted from a provider affirms your observation. Target 233.70

Syd 23:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Australia's manufacturing sector struggles in January against headwinds of increasing global competition, higher interest rates and relative AUD strength, says UBS economist George Tharenou. Construction and consumer sectors hit hardest as Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index falls 1.1 points in January from December to 51.3. Though moderating inflation, falling fuel prices provide some relief, Heather Ridout, Ai Group Chief Executive says raw material supply shortages and softness in South East states are key hurdles in 2007.

Staten Island AJC 23:27 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The comments were clearly taken out of context with the US Treasury line started by Adams more fully explained by Paulson. The US concern remains with China, not Japan. For Japan, the US watches deflation and anemic growth and gives the JPY a pass. For China with above trend growth, higher inflation and a serious trade imbalance there is less comfort and more protectionist pressure from Congress. But for Europe this may be the opposite story as Germany exports to China in the high-end capex competing mostly with Japan over that market. So EUR/JPY doesn’t really have USD in it?

Philadelphia Caba 22:59 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Treasury Secretary Paulson's testimony overnight helped push JPY higher though some in market argue his comments were in fact negative for yen: He did say he was watching JPY "very carefully" but added Japan FX policy very different from China; "the things that concern me are exchange rates - excuse me - currencies where the value isn't determined in a competitive marketplace. And the yen has a broad, deep competitive marketplace." Says HSBC's Robert Lynch, "the market is going to continue to debate" what Paulson meant. Comments do suggest Paulson and White House remain reluctant to be drawn into weak-yen debate now going on in Europe, are unlikely to support more formal remarks or pressure at February G7; Japan has argued JPY reflects economic fundamentals with low rates justified by current growth picture. DJ

Philadelphia Caba 22:58 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY: Sources In Tokyo Feel Market Over-Reacted To Paulson

USA BAY 22:55 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Looking at the gbp/jpy charts, the stochs and macd seems to point to upside, and 237.65 as resistance, but if this resistance is not breached than 235 .79 is in place. Any comments please.

albertson 22:46 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
ABHA
BEEE U TI FUL !!!!

Syd 22:34 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Australia Jan Performance Of Mfg Index Dn 1.1 Pts At 51.3
Australia's manufacturing sector recorded slower growth in January, a performance gauge produced by an industry group published Thursday shows.

The Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index fell 1.1 points in the month from the previous month to 51.3.

Philadelphia Caba 22:34 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
USA bay,
okay, but itsn't better to study pattern of, let say, eur/chf, eur/gbp from start ... these pairs are more predictable, more 'stable' and less 'dangerous' ... check GEP's advice in archive...

Syd 22:31 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:26 Can't see it

Atlanta South 22:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Ref 22:14/ Very good advice, as I know from dancing
with that pair a few times. Its a killer if you don't know
what your doing. For the new trader its a good way to clean
your balnce sheet. Just my thoughts. GT

ABHA FXS 22:28 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
albertson 22:08
eurusd
Wave hypothesis: We are attempting to trade a larger Fifth Wave down, after having possibly completed an upwards Fourth corrective wave since January 12 with a duration of about 16 trading days. Alternately, we are trading a smaller Second Wave down of a new larger Fifth Wave up that started January 26. In the latter case the target will be closer - at about 1.2880 to 1.2925.
I agree that "I think the 1.3033 is only a first 3 or C target of a larger wave" but it could also be the top of a Wave 1. According to any of these scenarios, is will correct downwards now. Since its recent low at 1.2875 it has risen twice and fallen twice, which could be 1-2-3-4-5, or 1-2-3 or A-B-C, so it is due for a downwards correction whatever is the case. If we can get in at what is clearly the top of a minor wave, then when it falls we can adjust our stop to Break Even and thus attain a risk free attempt to make a high return trade. The wave count is very uncertain, but strategic analysis indicates that this is nevertheless a low risk / high return trade opportunity.


Philadelphia Caba 22:26 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd, ACC, GCM or Peat ... any chance of RBA's hike on next meeting? tia.

ABHA FXS 22:24 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:07
gbpjpy rang
238.59
235.76

USA bay 22:24 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
PHILLY CABA.

THANKS. What I do is I buy mini lots 1 pip = 8 cents. test direction then only I do proper trading . Like today, I feel it is down so I will sell a mini at the highest point before asian session starts. Opinion about this gbp/jpy from more experience traders is helpful. I am studying the patterns of this pair and only play one lot 80 cents per pip the most.

ldn pw 22:23 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 21:05 GMT January 31, 2007
Cris could I have your views on gbp/usd and usd/jpy for next asian and Euro sessions...thanks

LKWD JJ 22:18 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY was leaning on gbpusd last week as one went down so did the other. is the same true for eurusd with eurjpy?

Philadelphia Caba 22:14 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:07 GMT
I'm not competent enough to give you any advice, but..if are you beginner in FX, leave that pair alone...if you exactly don't know what to do ... it's gonna kill your acc ...now or later..gt/gl!

albertson 22:08 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
ABHA
why the eur/usd trade, I love it, BUT, why?

USA BAY 22:07 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Your view on gbp/jpy pls. thanks

ABHA FXS 22:03 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trade Sell EUR/USD at 1.3033
Stop is 1.3071
Target is 1.2825 - 1.2860
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is min. 170 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is min. 4.1
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair
======
Trade Buy USD/CHF at 1.2420
Stop is 1.2379
Target is 1.2600
Risk is 45 pips
Reward is min. 176 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is min. 3.9
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair
======

Como Perrie 21:55 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
the following might affect the UsdJpy decently

NEW YORK (AFX) - The New York Stock Exchange and Tokyo Stock Exchange announced an alliance Wednesday that extends the NYSE's global reach and could lead to an eventual combination of the world's two largest financial markets.

Como Perrie 21:49 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
albertson 21:41 GMT January 31, 2007

usually better not to hold bad possies too long, place stops wherever suitable to your monies risk tolerance and stay safe. at current levels the short term picture (except scalpings) is highly unpredictable. we must see how asia and tomorrow london are going to set to have a clue for further moves. there were central bank interventions last week as well and the g7 is of big concern to fx if anything official about currencies is talked. so me taking It very conservative and cutting into flat most of times. there are both the usd and the yen at risk of explosion and dunno frankly which one first and dunno if acceptable for markets a crash at current levels, but this will be the outcome if after the G7 will go heavy on currencies imo

Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:42 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd: long taken for PIP RAIDING and stops will be moved to entry point now that the 3040-50 area is being tested. A break of that next resistance level must happen soon for the bulls to get momentum going again. In the mean time we are still in a range mode that is the reason for moving the stops to entry point at this stage. Normal system is still sell on failed rallies until the main resistance (3090-3100) is taken out. That is the next important resistance awaiting the bulls IMHO. Peace and GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:20 GMT January 29, 2007
Short term view eur/usd pair: The range continues as the pair bounces off the 2880 support and shorts taken are stopped out on the entry point. Now the pair has a resistance to over come around the 2960-70 and 2980-90 area. A buy signal around the 2980-90 area awaits for the pip raiders but with the tight range there is very little movement until the 3040-50 top is removed IMHO. Peace and GT

albertson 21:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
thanks Como, with all the "analyst" , and that I say tongue & cheek, screaming 1.30-1.32 eur/usd you would think that support would be somewhere right where it is? just shows us , fundementals are for suckers, I really fell that overnight we see 1.2980-75. The FOMC number was already priced and Europe is just going to bed. I will hold my short position until tomorrow.
Thanks for the chit chat

SINGAPORE GFX 21:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
COMO PERRIE,

Yes you are right. more yen yen trades will unwind imvho b4 the g7 meeting as there is always a risk of yen intervention. the unwinding of carry trades can have a snowball effect on other crosses. usd/jpy 119.10 may be seen this week.

Como Perrie 21:38 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Also very important next days and ahead of the G7 will be the european official verbal intervention seen recently considering the eurjpy overvalution to be a concern. this might depress some the eur in genral particularly in case It goes official into the G7

Como Perrie 21:35 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
eurusd at current levels mantains a strong tone on upwards after very tight ranges seen last days.

It had a decent short term resistance broken earlier 1.2980 which is no minor support.

1.3050/1.31 to 1.2920/70 could be the wider range where It has to set.
yen flows and carry trades eventual unwinding must be also considered upon the recent complex mix of flows seen trough crosses and the usdjpy as well as upon commodity currencies and the like.

albertson 21:29 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
a little help, any thoughts on eur/usd tonight !!! thanks guys

Como Perrie 21:26 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
gfx not active yen related at current. but for reference 120,00 121,20 usdjpy is what am looking at. imo Its already enough difficult to trade coupla pairs in such market conditions, plus the carry trades are more like trading bonds with the second the yen by some central banks called a non currency.

SINGAPORE GFX 21:22 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
COMO PERRIE,

AGREE. 236.34 IS JUST 70 PIPS AWAY. GBP/JPY has to break this to test 234 levels. The question is will it or 240 again. any comment. ty

Como Perrie 21:17 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 20:50 GMT January 31, 2007

agree that one but a scalping approach only..

me took out cable from earlier mid Us at 19652... now flat and gonna see what next, need to rest too

bi

CT Cris 21:15 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 21:10 GMT January 31, 2007
CT CRIS,

Thanks, it will go down in the assian session. The target is 236.34 or do you think is lower. thanks again

=====
70-80 pips to down.

Cannes Oil man 21:14 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
oooo watch my little puppy nzd, make a sneak attack at .69(yummy)...

Though admitedly i give it a few more days till the "big shuffle"..

Cannes Oil man 21:12 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 20:47 GMT January 31, 2007

No i don't...Super inflation ahead , goes well with com's shortage, dev's of under dev countries and so forth.

SINGAPORE GFX 21:11 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

YEP, I miss your post too

SINGAPORE GFX 21:10 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Thanks, it will go down in the assian session. The target is 236.34 or do you think is lower. thanks again

Charlotte TH 21:08 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 21:05 GMT January 31, 2007
**********************

Good to see you back here. This forum really messed up by upsetting you into not posting anymore. You are one of the best forecasters I know.

Como Perrie 21:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
CT Maribor and dunno who else..that was meant to this super call of the week. You know am not listening to calls around and the reference to listening around was meant to the glory cow technical seldom sellers here.

Spurs Traders LDN JR/MR 10:05 GMT January 31, 2007
Looking to sell cable rallies, tech goes short today..19300 in a week or two. Same idea on AUS and NZ

CT Cris 21:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 20:57 GMT January 31, 2007
CT CRIS,
gbp.jpy into narrow sideways, then will go down.

SINGAPORE GFX 20:57 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Your view on gbp/jpy pls. TY

CT Cris 20:54 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte
dont listen to rabbish traders.

Gen dk 20:50 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

CT Cris 20:50 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 19:42 GMT January 31, 2007
Como Perrie 19:31 GMT January 31, 2007

Sell all upwards spikes of cable. We're headed south.

=======
Charlotte..you are right I made more than 20 pips selling around 19650 and exit below 40

RIC fxq 20:47 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:31 GMT

surely you jest!

Cannes Oil man 20:31 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
For me there is little doubt that US rates will be around 8% within 2 or 4 years..Then stagnate there till the next cycle.

Rivonia PipPirate 20:19 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:31 GMT U shud spend more time looking for hidden treasure in Her Majesty's charts. LOL

Syd 20:16 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Judging from this snippet the US economy is in good shape

BIG PICTURE: US Economy Moved Back To Trend Growth In 4Q
After slumping in the middle of last year, the economy returned to its trend rate of growth in the final quarter of 2006.

The government's advance estimate of gross domestic product growth in the final three months of the year was 3.5%, up from just a 2.0% annual rate in the third quarter. That's actually a bit faster than the average annual 3.3% rate over the 50 years from the end of 1955 through the end of 2005, as good a proxy for the trend rate as any.

The return to trend growth occurred despite a notable drag from home building and the hurting auto industry.
Consumer spending grew very strongly at a 4.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, accounting for more than three percentage points of total GDP growth and accounting for 71% of total GDP.

Good employment gains and solid income growth powered consumer spending, which also received an assist from the decline in gasoline prices which left consumers with even more discretionary spending power.

Indeed, nearly all components of consumer spending grew last quarter, and even spending on new cars and trucks only declined at a 4.1% annual rate. Surprisingly, spending on nondurable goods grew at a robust 6.9% annual rate.

Capital spending, however, declined at a 0.4% rate in the quarter due to a falloff in spending on software and equipment, which had been signaled by shipments of nondefense capital in the monthly durable goods reports. Still, with the evident strength of consumer spending, it appears that the slip in capital spending is just a pause. The expansion in business signified by the surge in consumer spending justifies further increases in capital spending.

A big and welcome surprise in the fourth quarter data was the pronounced narrowing in the real trade deficit. The deficit declined to $581.4 billion from $628.8 billion in the third quarter and the record $636.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006.
Overall GDP inflation decelerated in the quarter, with the GDP chain-weighted price index up at a 1.5% annual rate after a 2.0% rate in the third quarter. That slowdown owed a lot to a fall in energy prices: the GDP price index excluding food and energy prices actually accelerated a bit to a 2.3% rate from 2.2%.

However, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure - the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, the so-called PCE core, slowed to a 2.1% pace from 2.2% in the third quarter and 2.7% in the second quarter. Still, the rate remains above the Fed's understood target rate range of 1% to 2%.

Until the rate is comfortably within that range, the Fed still has work to do.

USA BAY 20:07 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Anyone care to comment on gbp/jpy. thanks

Cannes Oil man 20:04 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
It is noted though frankly your bet is unfair for me , as the distance is higher to you than to me(i thus have an advantage).

I usually do not bet beers , but n positions , i will however take your beer.
gl

Syd 20:04 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept the federal funds rate unchanged for a fifth-straight meeting and continued to lean toward higher rates should inflation perk up again.

An accompanying statement was more upbeat on both growth and inflation, though officials reiterated that "some inflation risks remain," further highlighting that a reduction in interest rates - once considered likely by financial markets - isn't at all on the Fed's radar screen.

The FOMC voted unanimously to keep the Fed funds rate at 5.25%. The decision was universally expected by Wall Street.

"The Fed sounds pretty happy with things," said Stuart Schweitzer, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Asset and Wealth Management. "Growth and inflation both look good."

It was the first unanimous decision to hold rates steady since the current pause began in August. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who dissented in favor of higher rates at each of the past four meetings, isn't a voting FOMC member this year. Regional bank presidents, with the exception of New York, vote on a rotating basis.

"Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth," the FOMC said, citing "some tentative" evidence of stabilization in housing. It also said the economy should expand "at a moderate pace" in coming quarters.

That's a more upbeat assessment than at the Fed's last meeting on Dec. 12, when officials said growth had "slowed" due to a "substantial cooling" in housing, and that despite "mixed" indicators the economy should expand moderately.

wyborg grey wolf 20:02 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
I mean tomorrow

Sofia mik 20:01 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   

beer from me.
mistake , no name

Sofia 19:59 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 19:53 GMT
I bet a beer 1.20 before 1.37

wyborg grey wolf 19:58 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
forecast EUR/USD will it hike ??????

Bahrain Bahrain1 19:56 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Buying euro$ put...strike 1.3000 2days. let see what will happened. Good night.

Cannes Oil man 19:53 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Word of caution :

Model break will soon go long E$...(1.31 will be a detonator).
gl gt

Sofia mik 19:51 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
sell euro3034

LKWD JJ 19:44 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:31 GMT January 31, 2007
where is now that super forecaster telling to keep selling all upward cable spikes from this late london mid day.
===================================
there are posters who trade demo accts and have no risk at all but want to look like heros. you cant follow anybody here totally, it only helps you to get an idea of what others are thinking . you need to do your own work and then go wih it.

shanghai beyond_destiny 19:43 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
hold euro short one 1.3015, two 1.303

any suggestion for t/p....I see major R @ 1.296-297, follow by 1.29, a break may see 150+ pip downside.

Charlotte TH 19:42 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:31 GMT January 31, 2007

Sell all upwards spikes of cable. We're headed south.

Bahrain Bahrain1 19:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Bloomberg headline, via Sky, has four suspicious devices found on Boston bridges

Cannes Oil man 19:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The real move will only come once e$ breaks 1.31..

Bahrain Bahrain1 19:40 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
if not 2nite.!!!

Bahrain Bahrain1 19:39 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Think we sell the rally on euro now....Friday we might see 1.2950 again. Have a great night...Good luck to you all.

Syd 19:38 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Fed Statement Won't Change Mkt Views - RBS
The Fed is more comfortable with a stable rate outlook, but they haven't abandoned a bias toward higher rates longer term if inflation "remains above desired levels," writes Alan Ruskin at RBS Greenwich in a research note." I don't think this honest Fed assessment of where things now stand on growth and inflation will change many longer-term market views on Fed policy," Ruskin writes.

RIC fxq 19:37 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 19:30 GMT

guess we are not reading enough between the lines, I read it the same.

Syd 19:36 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 19:30 GMT as usual traders seeing something thats not there for now

Maribor 19:34 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Como: if you don't want to lose money, don't play forex at all...

Gen dk 19:33 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 19:31 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
where is now that super forecaster telling to keep selling all upward cable spikes from this late london mid day. dumb the world of forecasters is ..if you want to not loose money listen nobody

Sydney ACC 19:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Well I fail to see anything dovish in this statement.
They see:
1. The housing market has stabilised.
2. Inflation remains a concern.
3. Any future increase is data dependent - this ought to mean range trading.
4. No mentiomn of easing - only increase in interest rates.

Bahrain Bahrain1 19:24 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Headline on Nikkei English site has BoJ keeping a close eye on yen fluctuation.

LKWD JJ 19:23 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
mr moskow?

RIC fxq 19:21 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   

LKWD JJ 19:19 GMT

not a change of opinion, a change in staff - Lacker is off the board

LKWD JJ 19:20 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
10 ma gbp 19673 . im short @ 60.

LKWD JJ 19:19 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
no dissenters on this one. hawks had wings clipped.

Sydney ACC 19:14 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth, and some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market. Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time. However, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures.

The Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E. Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.

2007 Monetary policy

Vienna Kiro 19:12 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
BYE BYE BYE USD

PAR 18:57 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
After the IMF demonetised gold and sold part of its reserves in the 1970 s to RNB gold rallied to over $ 800. So let them sell .

NY RP 18:54 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 18:45 GMT January 31, 2007
You would think the IMF might have learned from the BOE dumping Gold at its lows. Not sure dumping an appreciating asset in a long term secular bull market is the approapriate thing to do. Addtionally when the US Dollar has a cloud over its head and the anti-dollar(Euro) is admired as the anti-dollar not the almighty Euro. I certainly think cash gold buyers would love some good size sell orders. New kids on the block are big time gold buyers and have different philosophies then the west. After all India,China,Russia and others believe in gold as a store of wealth not a paper product with liabilities. GL

Syd 18:47 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
IMF warns on threat to public finances
Public finances have deteriorated so much in recent years that Britain could not withstand another global downturn, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday night.

Syd 18:45 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
IMF advised to sell $6.6bn of gold
The International Monetary Fund should sell $6.6bn worth of gold and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets as part of a strategy to put its finances on a sound, long-term footing, an expert panel has recommended. -
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9cbae8f4-b155-11db-b901-0000779e2340.html

BEIRUT MK 18:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
stopped out short eurusd from 1.2974 at 1.3005

Livingston nh 18:35 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
mik - what happened? did he pass out?

Sofia mik 18:33 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Bush on floor of NYSE....?
On cnbc

Halifax CB 18:14 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
NY RP - agreed, though my bias isn't downward. I just like lots of volatility, so any balancing (or unbalancing) of the equation I find interesting. GL/GT...

Bahrain Bahrain1 18:13 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Seems Central Banks enjoying buying the dips.

PAR 18:00 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Normally Fed and US car manufacturers should also start to worry about yen weakness after the contraction in midwest manufacturing .

manchester 17:57 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
does anyone think $/yen will fall further? 12090 seems good support

RIC fxq 17:53 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
effectively 0.

jkt-aye 17:48 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Qindex...great call as always. after 120.7x been hit, how is the chance of usd bulls to show their muscles ? tia

NY 17:42 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Hi friends,
what are the chances fed hiking today.....

NY RP 17:31 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:13 GMT January 31, 2007
The market can go up or down as we all know. Valid research can only provide reality. Reality is the Gold market is tiny and indeed any real interest in the metal from large liquidity sources can have a major impact on the price. I wish you luck with your downward bias. But I firmly believe Gold hs one way to go from here and it certainly isnot down, not including corrections. Good luck

LKWD JJ 17:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
GVI-JAY --->
see emm see fx says if fed takes out "substantial " from description of housing slump usd can rally otherwise flat.

Halifax CB 17:13 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 16:39 GMT January 31, 2007
That pie might actually be much larger than anyone previously suspected, and if current research pans out, don't be surprised to see the price of gold tumble (New scientist Article, Jan. 19th )

It's a subscriber's only article, but you should be able to find it at your local library....

Gen dk 17:08 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 17:00 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI john 17:00 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
"Hedi"--

If you would like to advertize please contact [email protected]

Thanks

semiji n 16:53 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
anyone know eurusd range for tonite.. tq

LKWD JJ 16:46 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
anything special today to push cable all over the place?

LKWD JJ 16:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
fomc holds key for today. stops were run but not major chart damage.

dc CB 16:40 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
CAD and oil joined at the hip.

NY RP 16:39 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
680's on the metal (currency). An important aspect to understand is the Gold market is tiny compared to all other markets. Also the amount of liquidity out there is ENORMOUS. If a portion of this money finds a liking to gold for whatever reasons, there is only so many pieces of the pie for a limited amount of mouths to feed. One day is not what this about and corrections are nothing more than buying opportunities. GL

london av 16:35 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
jj, where do you see $/yen moving from here? 12090 needs to hold i guess

LKWD JJ 16:32 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
20 ma @ 120.93 $y. daily

Cannes Oil man 16:26 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Thinning up my gbp's , stop to entry (1.9510).

Break time.

gl

Gen dk 16:16 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

shanghai beyond_destiny 16:15 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
out euo long @ 1.3015 , short 1.3015/1.303 S/L 1.308 t/p 1.29

HK Kevin 16:07 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 15:59 GMT, my god. I covered my short USD/JPY position at 121.28, 1-2 minute before this 50-pips move in a min.

manchester 16:07 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
RP, thanks. would you suggest to buy more at these levels? what are your short term targets? First one I guess is taking out the highs from last year 725-730 area.

Cannes Oil man 16:07 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 16:05 GMT January 31, 2007

Right on , com's shortage is the event 2007-2015.

NY RP 16:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
manchester 15:38
We have been buyer since the New Year all over the place.
Gold will lead teh dollar down has been our philosophy. Gold has potential to take out the highs very soon. It is the bigger picture that is most exciting. Most laugh but 1500 by the end of 2008 will not leave many laughing anymore. Daily fights and longer term parties. GL

london av 16:02 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
any comments on $/yen. its this carry trade unwinding or yen strength. seems like a good buy at these levels.

Cannes Oil man 16:00 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Once the dust settles in , model fund will be driven to cover...Bigger move to come from here (With e$ breaking 1.31).

GL.

Philadelphia Caba 15:59 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
NEWS: US Paulson Says Watching JPY Very Very Carefully

beirut jb 15:52 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
hi traders

Gep what do u think about short eur/gbp here?

Cali mmm 15:50 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, Any target for EUR/USD today? TKS

lugano fc 15:47 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
short eur and gbp stop above high of today
dont think we brake before fomc so looking just for a countermoove....

Cannes Oil man 15:42 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Kevin , hold for .74..

EU theEUROqueen 15:40 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
the 1,28**-1,31** within few hours will be free to break..we prefer the up side..

manchester 15:38 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
RP, Ive been holding gold for the last few days at 644.50. been waiting for it too break 650 which it has done now, just hoping it can hold that. looking for 675 and then 700. you got any views?

NY RP 15:35 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Stagflation anyone? Got Gold?

HK Kevin 15:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
EUR resistance at 1.3010. Personally, don't like this spike up before the FOMC announcement.

HK Kevin 15:28 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Closed my long NZD at 6854.

Gen dk 15:27 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 15:22 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
HK Revdax, no. I have a full time job at day time. Currently holding a lot of China banking and insurance stocks since their IPO. Loading some HSBC this month.

Athens MK 15:17 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Still a buy for first target at 1.9725... buy orders reside at 1.9480 -1.9512 looking for above target..... These are good levels to buy at.

As long as 1.9385 level stays untouch the above target remains viable.....

Cannes Oil man 15:16 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Euro breaks 1.30 and we see a massive move...Domino..More if 1.31 breaks...

hk revdax 15:12 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin //Do you do short term trades of HK stocks?

Cannes Oil man 15:11 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
If we project ourselves in the future , the real problem ahead of us , is the shortage of commodities..
China is gobbling up everything, and it's far from being done (as in a country like USA , where the average couple has 12 credit cards, housing ,2 cars, and proper access to energy).
Then we have India, Russia, South Americas, Africa..
30% of iron has already been gobbled up by china, more to come of course..All the others(listed above, though a few of those posted are producers, but currently their production goes to US (the develloped countries), are going to devellop sooner or later..
And this is combined with the very high % of dollar concentration , will push US$ down , years after years..As countries "emerge" and their ccy , seen as good investment, distribution of currency risk..

All this of course doesn't mean the Euro can't go to 1.22 tomorrow, just means from now to 5 years and on , it will be higher, same for the RAND , and whatever you pick out there (India ruppia, Russian rubble, Chinese yuan, etc)..

PAR 15:06 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Very weak Chicago PMI mostly due to declining US car manufacturing caused by cheap Japanese car imports .

HK Kevin 14:53 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:41 GMT, thanks master. my daily support for NZD 6810 still hold, next weekly support around 6775. Too uncertainly in this thin market and ahead of the FOMC announcement, will cover this position before going to bed.

san miniato ab 14:44 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
chicago pmi 48,8

Philadelphia Caba 14:44 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Ch PMI 48.8

Cannes Oil man 14:43 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 14:41 GMT January 31, 2007

% of both , that's discretionnal and systematic.

Gen dk 14:43 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-View GVI 14:43 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
From GVI:

GVI 14:41 GMT January 31, 2007
Jan Chi PMI is out already => 48.8, weak employment

London HC 14:42 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
News?

Cannes Oil man 14:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Kevin:
Everyone gets exited , shorting NZD$ at 6820/50..
If you look at the chart , last time a VERY similar dip happened(Look on chart posted on GVI), (which i talked about last night) , followed by a new high..Now let us imagine , NZD$ manages to pop back above 6915..What do you think happens?...Domino falls..
Fund going in the direction (54% of trading is automated, model driven) , little accounts going short (still going on the 2 days idea that NZD is crashing) , and NZD burst to .74.

That's what i think, now take it with a grain of salt, chart wise it's a short..Chart reflect past though.

Mumbai NS 14:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Oilman u trade on technicals or fundamentals ty

Cannes Oil man 14:36 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The US$ does not move on good news (we've seen it for quite some time now)...However there has not been 1 bad news for WEEKS...
First bad one , will be a good move for US$ bears..sooner or later , bound to be one.
gl gt

Cannes Oil man 14:32 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Nothing has changed, SELL US$ , that's my view..Little stop hunting don't change much in the fundamentals.

Cannes Oil man 14:31 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 14:04 GMT January 31, 2007

They for sure aren't europeans LOL.

Philadelphia Caba 14:28 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
aussie 7690-7700 holds again...

HK Kevin 14:25 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, you coments on NZD please. It seemswe have seen otday's low. Entered a tiny long at 6823 earlier with stop below today's low, t/p 6860

GVI john 14:14 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
At 14:45 GMT (09:45 EST), the January Chicago PMI is seen at 52.0 vs 51.6 in December. The Milwaukee PMI is slated as well. At 15:00 GMT (10:00 EST), December Construction Spending is seen unchanged vs -0.2% in January.

Bahrain BAH1 14:10 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds....any view on cable pls?

Gen dk 14:06 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lugano fc 14:04 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
data little bit strange....very strange....
gdp up cost down......amis are sooooooooo productive

these are not real nbrs.....

hk ab 13:47 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
eur shifting its bearishness to gbp finally. not far away from the m/t bottom.

hk ab 13:35 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
time to digest fine details of the data.

hk ab 13:31 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
seems that we can have more than 1 good news......

HK Li 13:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Data pls?

Philadelphia Caba 13:29 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
GDP 3.5%

Global-View GVI 13:27 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
GVI 13:25 GMT January 31, 2007
Consensus is GDP +3.0%, spending 4.4%, deflator 1.5%

GVI john 12:56 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Earlier today: Euroland preliminary January CPI figures saw a rise of +1.9% yr/yr vs +1.9% in December. An advance of +2.1% yr/yr was expected....

Cannes Oil man 12:38 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Hedge fund have more money than the ECB...But hedge fund can't raise/lower ECB's rates.

PAR 12:03 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
As more european finance ministers complain about a weak yen the weaker the yen will get. Hedge funds are more powerfull than european finance ministers and Swiss and Japan governments love devaluing their currencies. Boj and Kampo have a target of 125.00 on USDJPY .

Syd 11:32 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
German Econ Min: More Concerned About Yen Than Dollar
BERLIN (Dow Jones)--The weakening of the yen is of more concern than that of the dollar, German Economics Minister Michael Glos said Wednesday. "I have already said in the past that I'm less concerned about the development of the dollar than the yen's foreign exchange rate, particularly regarding the automotive sector," Glos said at a press conference on the government's 2007 annual economic outlook report. "We don't know where we are heading but of course we have to note that there have been changes." He said Japanese cars aren't just produced Japan, but also elsewhere "so that the yen rate isn't the only benchmark for the automotive sector's competitiveness." The yen's weakness against the euro has caused concern among European finance ministers at their meeting in Brussels this week, as a cheap yen makes European goods more expensive. In recent weeks, the euro has hit an all-time high of Y158.20. Japanese interest rates are still low, while rates in the euro zone have risen in recent months.

Auckland trotter 11:23 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
In regards to the EUR/USD, I have:

1wk 3yr chart has an up trend with present levels at a resistance of a 23.6% fib around 1.2964.

The 1day 6mo chart has a resistance from the SMA(100) around 1.2876. Which appears to be a major support level from this chart.

There could be a target of around 1.2968 from the 4hr 20day and 1hr 30 day charts for this session.

RSI(14) and (5), on the 1hr 5day chart need some correction.


Looking to take profit at 1.2945, and possible minor at 1.2960. Given the state of the market.


The Gooner 11:13 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Spurs Traders LDN JR/MR 10:05 GMT January 31, 2007

U r still living in the past. bit like your trading idea.
U r going out of the only cup tonight, u have a chance in, to our second team...

Sad Spurs- going nowhere...

Gen dk 10:58 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland trotter 10:40 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
mal semiji 10:01 GMT January 31, 2007
anyone know about eurusd range for tonite,,tq

If you are looking at trading ranges for the EUR/USD at present, then I suggest you look at levels on the 1hr 30day and 4hr 20 day charts.

Personally I don’t see the range applicable in this session of trading - the market is going one way or another from certain S&R. The market is not moving quick enough to bounce a range.

Sydney ACC 10:27 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:12 GMT January 31, 2007
My post :Sydney ACC 21:47 GMT January 14, 2007
Has Trichet and the ECB backed themselves into a corner regarding the euro interest rate increase?
At last week’s press conference he hedged away from using his normal coded language of “vigilant” to indicate an increase was likely at the next meeting and this is more than likely in March.
In the meantime there is a growing view that over the next couple of months of financial data will undermine the need for an increase.
BHF indicated:
“Although the ECB president hinted at being in agreement with market expectations of an interest rate hike in March, this is not a foregone conclusion, as he himself has stressed repeatedly. We think there is a good chance that the reasons for a further interest rate rise in the EMU may no longer apply.”
And RBS
“At the March meeting, the ECB will have its new macro economic projections and thus plenty of material to discuss the rate outlook and make a fully informed decision. Expect the inflation projection for this year to be revised lower to below 2% and the growth projections to be kept unchanged. Put together this does not make a very strong case for raising rates at that meeting. Also, the first weak economic reports post VAT from Germany will become available. With the rest of the euro area having already slowed to a more moderate pace of growth, it is thus difficult to find a strong argument in favour of a rate rise that particular month.”
The French presidential and assembly elections may also preclude an increase later:
9th April – Official campaign starts
22nd April – First round elections
6th May – Second round elections
10th June – First round assembly elections
17th June – Second round assembly elections
Given both Sakorzy and Royal have spoken out already about ECB’s independence and its interest rate settings any increase in April and thereafter would be too politically explosive to contemplate.
Last week also the Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi spoke against the need for further interest rate increases.
If then interest rates are to increase given Trichet’s backing hedging of a Febraury increase the only window of opportunity is March, however, if the BHF and RBS view of benign inflationary data occurs the window could slam shut in March.
That US interest rates are more than likely to remain on hold, with only the possibility of one reduction later in the year remaining the yield foundations for the euro will be seriously undermined. The rhetoric emanating from ECB officials over the next month then becomes more important than ever adding probably greater volatility to the markets.

Hong Kong Ahe 10:20 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
manchester 10:12 GMT - NZDYEN is still in unwinding mood. NZDUSD has broken the bottom of last dip. It tends to move to 100 day Moving average of 0.6768. GL and GT.

Gen dk 10:17 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 10:12 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The continued erosion of confidence in the euro zone hasn't yet reached the point where the ECB will abandon a signaled hike in March, but may start raising questions about the need for further action later in the year. Consumer confidence fell to -7 from -6, while industrial confidence dipped to +5 from +6, both in line with expectations. Overall economic sentiment fell to 109.2 from 109.8, the third straight monthly decline. The business climate indicator also dropped, to +1.4 from record high of +1.6.

manchester 10:12 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD - any opinions on this pair at 6840 level?

Como Perrie 10:10 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
bibi

we all see tech levels here.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:06 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The consolidation range is 0.7671 - 0.7690 - 0.7699 - 0.7708 - 0.7728 - 0.7745.

Spurs Traders LDN JR/MR 10:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Looking to sell cable rallies, tech goes short today..19300 in a week or two. Same idea on AUS and NZ

Como Perrie 10:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Yeap very though battle of sharks and common global interests of perceived stability. Not for small players imo.

Me today flatty relaxed and observing, maybe into next days if see anything small will try to catch and looking to start very conservatively into next week. (for conservatively do consider a range of not more than a tens of trades per week)

Syd 10:01 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:54 GMT i agree with what your saying , they have left it too long and will end in tears for many if not careful - as it did in 1998

mal semiji 10:01 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
anyone know about eurusd range for tonite,,tq

Como Perrie 09:57 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Also do think trading will become ever more diffuclt in such a scenario for next weeks and months ahead. So looking to small profits here and there and avoid running behind any printed story or technical levels for the pigeon stops would be very healthy. Obviously you 'll not make a living if you had not already too. Mini players to get rid in mass imo

Hong Kong Qindex 09:55 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The consolidation range is 1.1774 - 1.1814 - 1.1854.

Como Perrie 09:54 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:42 GMT January 31, 2007
Personally do think they try to erode time and trend.

LTCM in 1998 has a second drop just around 125/128 and if It goes up there the Japanese super deflationary politics might end into a collpase. They have been too late imo to rise int. rates. And so mayb many others.

Auckland trotter 09:52 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Will see what the EUR/USD does around the 1.2945 level from the 5min 5day chart.

Hong Kong Ahe 09:52 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
FLorida Crom 09:12 GMT January 31, 2007
So I figured that out long ago (And I know they hate me) .. Cool, LOLROTF. Applaused.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:52 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The consolidation range is 1.1774 - 1.1854.

Auckland trotter 09:45 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Just taken profit on yesterdays EUR/USD sell.
Now look at a correction with over sold indications on the shorter charts.

Syd 09:42 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:28 GMT Looks like the BOJ have a problem growing which may be nipped in the bud this week seems to be a lot of chatter going on. problem is can get wiped out very quickly

Como Perrie 09:31 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Me going to take a look at US opening. This mix of asean and london closings and openings has clearly too many opinions and positions in contrast.

Como Perrie 09:28 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:24 GMT January 31, 2007

that looks very much an verbal intervention like, since carry trades (or yen shorts) are far from intraday. Maybe they had difficult times again to manage It out as central banks just changed the exchequer from one extreme on some to another on others, with the problem to persists. We talk billions of yen shorts very very nervous, but apparently holding yet most.

madrid mm 09:28 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
+ last day of the month, ie squarring books etc
+ FED meeting, ie uncertainty
+ ministers not happy with some lvls in exchange rates
+ the unexpected news

= we may get some ¨funny¨moves

fwiw 8-)

Como Perrie 09:25 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
cable intraday to stay sold as holds below previous big stop support around 1.9660. There are many divergences coused by carry trade flows, but those have been into the market last days already.

Syd 09:24 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Avoid JPY Shorts While Paulson Speaks

Keep an eye on US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's visit to the Senate Banking Committee later in the day. Most of the talk will probably involve China bashing but the market will also be looking at what Paulson says about the JPY, following European criticism about the Japanese currency's decline. "We don't think that Paulson has much sympathy for Europe's point of view but clearly if there is any kind of hint at all from Paulson that the JPY is an issue, it could make the JPY soar and, for this reason alone, short JPY positions might be worth avoiding while he is speaking," Bear Stearns warns.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:23 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
FLorida Crom 09:12 GMT //
mate you must be right as every time it happened was just because I used too much leverage and the acc was margined out.... just to see the move I was waiting to happen after that... also last year maybe 4 or 5 times I started with some and made like 300% return just to lose it after that in 1 or 2 big trades... which to me means that greed kills the acc..

Syd 09:18 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
High-Yield Jitters Jolt Currency Markets; Sterling Dips

Sterling dipped early Wednesday amid nerves about high-yielding currencies.

The pound fell from around $1.9625 to $1.9530 and the euro climbed from GBP66.03 to GBP66.23 as key supporting levels were broken.

"The break in sterling below $1.96 was key," said Ian Stannard, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London.

Stannard said that the announcement Tuesday by German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck that the euro-yen rate would be discussed at the forthcoming Group of Seven meeting of leading industrial nations has contributed to the market's jitters.

Any major reversal in the soaring euro-yen rate, which has recently reached highs not seen since 1998 at around Y158, could prompt buying in low-yielding currencies like the yen and selling in high-yielders like sterling, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.

"The high-yielders like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have also broken through some key levels, so that nervousness is starting to have an impact," Stannard added.

Around 0900 GMT, the Australian dollar was down about 15 points from the overnight high against the U.S. dollar at A$77.06, while the New Zealand dollar was sharply down at NZ$68.55 from NZ$68.86.

But it's likely too soon to predict a full-scale dump of high-yielding currencies.

Daragh Maher, a currency strategist at Calyon in London, said some modest overnight strengthening in the yen has dented the pound, but he added that for now, the break in key sterling levels is more significant.

"We have seen some reaction in the Kiwi and Australian dollars around trading early in London, but I think it's more about the fact that we have gone through some key levels," he said.

Some traders also said that reports that a terror plot had been foiled in Birmingham were also contributing to jitters over the pound.

FLorida Crom 09:12 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:53 GMT January 31, 2007
FLorida Crom 08:43 GMT January 31, 2007
Demo is to execute

Yes it is. - "Demo is to execute" The settings in demo are very different from the real one. s/l, margin etc. Those dudes have very good education and they know how to get you right. Means your money out of your pockets.
You need to understand that they are against you. And as many acc you burn and as many wires you make as happy they are. So I figured that out long ago (And I know they hate me) Keep at least 30 K in the acc. play just 20% of what you have. Year end will show the profit of 30 to 70%. With the KEY - NOOOO GREED

Como Perrie 09:12 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
For today will still watch and consider next moves upon todays closings. This intraday is really foggy and complex.

Como Perrie 09:09 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Yeap cable has cought many of those technical levels printed around pants washed.

At current is eyeing an area by thumb 1.94 next days, this particularly if not capable to regain solidly levels above 1.96.

In between now there might be some side so to digest the many orders catched and the minor 10 pips trades to be netted either ways.

Athens MK 09:06 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Morning.....That spike down on cable sure has sweeten the pot... Look now to buy for a target of 1.9725...Remember if it goes below 1.9385 then look for it to go down to at least 1.9285.

If it stays above 1.95 then you start to have a good R/R to play towards the first above target....

Como Perrie 09:04 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Also looking at too many pairs if trading short term usually proves very negative. Except the modelers with lotsa experience, which is not short term.

Como Perrie 09:03 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Lesser trades, to me at least, equals to lesser profits and lesser losses, overal It shows to be more profits.

Como Perrie 09:01 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
To be the last month's day the amplitude is really surprising. Good am flat the caneage.

Auckland peat 08:59 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
lol at Eur/Chf
good thing about forex is theres always another day.....

Auckland peat 08:57 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
okay out on that Eur/Chf too much retracement , tho it may well still be there for taking. Played the same trade on demo with 30 pip take profit that got hit. WAH!
That Ninja Beast certainly went the full quid tho.
g/l g/t and goodnite.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:54 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
0850 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD looks ripe for a technical sell, says Standard Chartered. The bank notes that both daily and weekly momentum indicators are pointing down with the pair breaking down through a 55-day moving average and failing at a 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. "Technically clients should sell NZD/USD, targeting the 0.6510-82 support level," the bank says. The pair is now at 0.6860.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:53 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
tnx Ahe and all - I'm learning it live for 4 years with mini and now strd acc... it is a long way but I keep my interest in learning it

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:53 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
FLorida Crom 08:43 GMT January 31, 2007
Demo is to execute your technical skills and make them better. It will also help you with your confidence. I know it is different when you have the real account but it is better to crawl before you run IMHO. Hope you have a great week. Peace and GT

Baltimore Zoltan 08:53 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Caba!

Singapore fs 08:47 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
FLorida Crom 08:43 GMT January 31, 2007
Yup, yup, very true... once u are good in demo, go for real account.... demo don't fix your psychological, but, real account do... :D

Philadelphia Caba 08:45 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan, 5:30 am EST

Baltimore Zoltan 08:43 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone know what time Swiss KoF index comes out? Thanks!

FLorida Crom 08:43 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:33 GMT January 31, 2007
ICT ML 08:04 GMT January 31

Yes you right mate. Watch you for abt 5 years allready. But using demo to learn worth nothing. The key is the gread. Having an acc of 5 K and playing 1:400 one can make 20K a night or burn it in a matter of 2-4 hours.
Patience is the name of the game. And noooo greed. Like curiocity kills the cat, greed kills the trader.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:33 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
ICT ML 08:04 GMT January 31, 2007
Good to hear from you buddy hope you are well.

Hong Kong Ahe 08:23 GMT January 31, 2007
You are right those are good people to listen to they have the experience we all seek. I just wish they would post more often but then again I believe understand why they won't.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:05 GMT January 31, 2007
Yes there is a way to make a living in this market but few have found the way so far. No stops on the GBP/JPY is suicide as you have witnessed. If you are not learning the lessons quickly then I hope you have plenty of money for the extra classes. Try the demos first. Oh well I have talked about this many, many times before. Use the archives and you will find many helpful things if you know were to look for them. This is not a 100 yard dash it is definitely a marathon and the ones that are not ready for it better stay out of the race or you will get hurt IMHO. Peace and GT

PAR 08:32 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Japan and Switzerland seems to benefit from being the funding currencies to the world. It is bad for their consumers but excellent for their banks and industries. But the capital outflows out of these countries will ultimately have a severe negatif effect on their economies .

Syd 08:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
German Jan Unadj Jobless Rate 10.2% Vs 9.6% In Dec - Source
German Jan Unadj Jobless 4.25M Vs 4.01M In Dec - Source
German Jan Adj Jobless Rate 9.5% Vs 9.8% In Dec - Source
German Jan Seas Adj Jobless -106K Vs -130K In Dec - Source

Hong Kong Qindex 08:30 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 08:11 GMT January 31, 2007
Hong Kong Qindex//Any longer term forecast of oil prices? TIA

==========================

The longest period for my clients is one year.

Philadelphia Caba 08:27 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD: German Unemployment Leak (-106K)

Hong Kong Ahe 08:23 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:50 GMT - It can earn a basic living, if not hoping too much. But you need to pay some learning fees after you lost several lots in the market. Capital Preserve and management is very vital. Before entering any trade, one needs to calculate how many pips one will be gained or suffered. If lost, if you have enough capital to run for another trade. If not, try to select other pair with lower leverage or less volatile. Or wait till the moment where risk % is lower. Stop lost setting is good but sometimes cutting too much of your capital will influence your next trade. Also you need to set a Stop profit so to accumulate bigger capital for your next trade. Many old and experienced traders in this forum, like Athens, Shanghai bc. You can find their posts in archive and learn their views and also their trading practices. I did see Athens in a very quiet market where nobody could earn 10 pips but he could earn more than 100 pips. Shanghai bc is a long-term investor and by his experience he seldom places stop lost to cut out his capital. He is smart to manage both capital and also the entering price level, where he could suffer the frustration of daily price movement. Both of these gurus are trading forex since 70s.

A long time not for me to post for newbies in the forum. Hope it does help you once. GL and GT.

Syd 08:23 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Aussie 77 option taken out

Syd 08:20 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Forex Focus: Turnaround Time May Be Coming For Swiss Franc
Wednesday could prove to be a turning point for the Swiss franc.
After months of decline, which has taken it down to a record of CHF1.6257 against the euro, the currency could start to find support.
The reason?
The latest KOF economic barometer, due out Wednesday, could start to show an upturn and provide some fundamental justification for the recent hawkishness from the Swiss National Bank.
On top of the KOF, there is the latest purchasing managers' index as well as another opportunity for SNB President Jean-Pierre Roth to talk the currency higher Thursday.

"It is a relatively key week for the Swiss market," said Henrik Gullberg, a currency strategist with Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank in London.

There is certainly nothing new in the SNB President 's hawkish tone. Only last week Roth described the franc's weakness as going against sound fundamentals and blamed the currency's decline on "market exuberance."

However, there was little reason for the franc selling to stop. With Swiss rates down 2.0%, the franc has remained a popular funding currency for carry trades, in which investors sell low-yielders in favor of high-yielders, such as the Australian dollar or the pound.

Roth did warn that the SNB is prepared to raise interest rates if needed. But with Swiss inflation currently below 1% and both external and internal demand remaining healthy, there is little reason why the central bank should need to adjust policy.

In his speech last week, Roth even pointed to the recent decline in crude oil prices but admitted that this would have little impact on policy.

"Overall, his comments do not suggest the SNB's scenario has changed," said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist with UBS in Zurich.

The KOF survey, however, could do just that.
A strong number could finally convince the market that interest rates are on their way up - a suggestion that could make the currency less popular for carry trades.
Last month, the pace of decline of KOF already showed signs of slowing down, with the December index falling to 1.60 from 1.75 in December.
Calyon's Gullberg now expects a rebound in January.
"Crucial for the markets will be if the decline in the KOF has come to a halt," he said.
He suggests that recent robust economic developments, as well as the weakness of the franc itself, will also "trigger a more forceful reaction from the SNB."
Gullberg admits that Roth's hawkishness in the past has been reflected in the interest rate market, with euro Swiss futures pricing in a 25 basis point hike in rates March 15 as well "a reasonable probability" of another rate hike beyond that.
"In the foreign exchange market, however, the impact has been limited to say the least," Gullberg said.
As a result, there is scope for some reversal.
"If the KOF turns around, then look to initiate euro/Swiss franc short positions, ahead of Roth's speech on Thursday when he could make a serious attempt to verbally support the franc," Gullberg said.
How fast and how far the franc may go is hard to tell.
At Goldman Sachs in New York, senior currency strategist Jens Nordvig, argues that carry trades could remain popular for some time.
"It appears that we could remain in a low-volatility environment for some time still, which is supportive for carry trade strategies," he said.
Equally, others are preparing for a reversal. At HBOS, senior currency strategist Steve Pearson recommends clients to start preparing for a rebound. "In terms of practical risk management," he said his bank has "bought longer dated euro puts and Swiss franc calls."

wellington am 08:14 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Grettings NZD dip buyers. Could be wrong here, but suggest you take a look at some longer timeframe charts. The action I see is the begining of a downward trend, not a dip in the up trend. It took about three months for the NZD/CAD to retrace to 61.8 of its massice 2006 move down. Imho, it's now been rejected, and is heading back down again. Holding AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD short until proven otherwise.

HK REVDAX 08:11 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex//Any longer term forecast of oil prices? TIA

Syd 08:10 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
BOJ: Yen Was Weak In 2H 2006 Vs Others On Interest Rate Gap
The Japanese yen was weak in the second half of 2006 because of an interest-rate gap between Japanese interest rates and rates in other countries, the Bank of Japan said in a semiannual review of financial markets.

In foreign exchange markets, market participants focused on the interest-rate gap amid continued low volatility in exchange rates. Thus the yen fell against many currencies, the central bank said.

Auckland peat 08:09 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
no stop loss with Ninja Beast!! you wont make that mistake again huh Kaprikorn. perhaps play demo some more for a while? thats what I did when I blew my a/c.

Eur/Chf bounced off its too quickly made gains, tho giving 30 pips for the quick. But I will hold for now stop loss at b/e of 1.6234


Sofia Kaprikorn 08:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
FLorida Crom 07:51 GMT //
yes I had this feeling - I had a trednline support coming into around 238.50 and it was breached and the fall was steady after that...
yes - many times happened this zeroing... mostly due to overleverage and no stops at all.. just can't set them ..

ICT ML 08:04 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
"Sofia Kaprikorn 07:24 GMT January 31, 2007
stupid thing - once again I zeroed my account leaving the GBPJPY trade without a stop.."

Well that one while tempting to trade as it may appear at times, is often better left alone. Especially if you do not use hard stops. I find that a good trade set-up in it for me, with acceptable R/R, comes maybe twice a year. Either hit it square at the right levels or don't swing at all is what I learned the hard way the past several years from that little *censor here*.

Nothing can wreck a good YTD return faster than a GBP-JPY position gone bad with no stops in place.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:58 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF (Daily Cycle): The consolidation range is 2.4543 - 2.4631. Downside targeting points are 2.4455 and 2.4478. Upside targeting points are 2.4719 and 2.4793.

FLorida Crom 07:51 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:24 GMT January 31, 2007
stupid thing - once again I zeroed my account

Practice makes perfect. I dont think it was your 1st zeroed acc. And only you know how many more ahead. It depends on the depth of your pockets and on your devotion to this crazy thing called FX.

But if serious the fall was obvious. 236.37 is a target now, and I dont think it will respect that level long. 231 is the base, from which we start counting again.

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:50 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Ahe - not at all - it happens every time so I start to think if it is possible to trade for living ..

Syd 07:46 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
BIRMINGHAM, England (AP)--Police arrested eight people Wednesday in Birmingham on suspicion of committing, preparing or instigating terrorism, West Midlands Police said.
Police gave no details of the allegations against the suspects.
Police raided several addresses beginning at 0400 GMT, police said. The operation was led by the Midlands Counterterrorism unit, supported by West Midlands Police and London's Metropolitan Police.

Bahrain BAH1 07:41 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Hi frnds....
stopped on long NZD$ -32 pips.......
will buy the dips again now......
1st support at 40 and then 10/15. take care and GOOD luck to u all.

Hong Kong Ahe 07:37 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:24 GMT Oh dear, sorry to hear that. Hope that it wont hurt much.

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:24 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
stupid thing - once again I zeroed my account leaving the GBPJPY trade without a stop..

hk ab 07:16 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
oilman, shall we have some more kiwi long here?
I would like to wait the ripple settled down first.

Bahrain BAH1 07:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
German December retail sales strong, up 2.4% m/m following November's -0.7% m/m and against forecasts for +1.2% m/m.

USA BAY 06:59 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Guys look at GBP/CHF, seems flying.

Auckland peat 06:43 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
what do you think it will do Bay?
I said already didnt I?
I reckon that is probably my play of the day (30 possible pips in 1 minute) so I wont push my luck too far , that pattern was short term and by falling to its base it has played out now.

USA BAY 06:32 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
AUCKLAND PEAT,

Any idea where GBP/JPY heading to?? Thanks

Auckland peat 06:09 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
I guess no one had time to play that Ninja tip, but it was posted before the 25 pip drop. :+)

sorry if I'm too talkative... but its been pretty quiet in here today.

Auckland peat 05:59 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
15 min time frame that is....

Auckland peat 05:59 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
and I thought I spotted a head and shoulders on the GBP/JPY with price falling through the right shoulder.

Auckland peat 05:52 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
The European morning brings Eur/Chf pushing out of its pennant.

Syd 05:12 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Japan's housing starts rose 10.2% on year in December to 107,906 units, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said Wednesday.

The result was better than forecasts for a 7.8% climb by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and Nikkei News.

The rise marked the fifth straight month of increases. Housing starts rose 4.0% in November, 2.2% in October and 4.0% in September.

Annualized housing starts were at 1.300 million units.

Private housing starts for individual homes in December rose 0.3% on year to 26,770 units, while rental housing was up 8.5% at 46,637 units.

Multi-unit dwellings increased 20.3% to 33,474 units. Multi-unit starts include condominiums.
http://www.mlit.go.jp/toukeijouhou/chojou/index.html

Syd 05:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Japan December Housing Starts Tipped +7.8% On-Yr
Japan December housing starts likely to up 7.8% on-year (vs +4.0% in November), predicts Dow Jones/Nikkei poll; would be 5th straight month of increase, suggest advance in wages led by robust corporate performance may have boosted demand for housing. Market awaiting data for more clues on odds of BOJ hike next month. Data due 0500 GMT, along with December construction orders.

Syd 04:05 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
JPMorgan raises USD/JPY forecasts, calling peak of 126 in June, 125 end-2007, on expectations 1) carry and resident investor outflows to keep pressuring JPY (says FX investment trust launches already picking up in February); 2) direct investment outflows increasingly a JPY drag; 3) expectations of BOJ tightening receding, perceptions rising that BOJ will fall behind the curve. "We have long held an out-of-consensus stance that carry and resident investor outflows should drive trend JPY weakness, but recent market moves have overshot our previously aggressive forecasts." Maintains view JPY and EM Asia FX to continue to decouple.

USA BAY 03:38 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Your analysis on GBP/CHF heading towards 2.4774 is it still valid and could you give the expected level for today if you are free. Thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 03:33 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 121.55. The following is still valid :-


Hong Kong Qindex 09:56 GMT January 29, 2007
USD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between 121.48 - 122.17. The downside targeting point is 120.79. The trading reference is as follow :- ... // 120.79* - 121.25 - 121.48 - 121.71 - [122.17]* ...

HK REVDAX 02:09 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:24 //There is no bubble burst anywhere in the world until the US election is over in 2008.

Syd 01:46 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP, thanks for that cheers

Aussie Credit Points To Rates On Hold - JPM
Modest downside surprise on RBA credit aggregates in December (+0.9% vs November, lowest result since July 2005) further strengthens case against another rate hike, says JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters. Expects cash rate to be unchanged at 6.25% for an extended period with a rate cut starting to look likely mid-2008

RIC fxq 01:35 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 01:00 GMT

as if many of the self-same prof's don't have other conflicts of interest of their own.

Mtl JP 01:00 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd, earlier, Bloomber had this piece about Bartimoro and her journalistic credibility: CNBC's Bartiromo Irks Professors Over Citigroup Ties

some say ANY publicity is good publicity...

Syd 00:53 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Why Fed's inflation fight may not be over
Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman, evidently needs to get himself a private jet.
You will recall how last year Mr Bernanke was the victim of a piece of drive-by punditry by the most famous face in financial news, Maria Bartiromo, of the CNBC business channel.



http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13129-2572874,00.html

Gen dk 00:35 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 00:26 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD to test support, initial target 0.7702. Pair remains weighed down by previous USD gains, diminished interest rate differentials and some caution regarding carry trades. Overall outlook bearish while pair below previous uptrend support drawn from Nov. 13 low (now at 0.7818). Daily chart indicators negative, Dow Jones technical analysis shows. Pair may trade short-term between 0.7702 and 0.7741 (yesterday's range); any breach of support would target 0.7682 (Nov. 21 low), resistance 0.7818. AUD/USD last at 0.7716.

albertson 00:08 GMT January 31, 2007 Reply   
Guys, any feeling on 58/54 eur/usd tonie ??

 




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