Forex Forum Archive for 10/1/2007

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:27 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
2325 GMT [Dow Jones] Increased talk of AUD reaching parity with USD after pair jumped to 18-year high Monday, above 0.8900, vs 0.7900 mid-August from 0.4700 in 2001. Plenty to suggest parity around corner; psychological magnet of level, strong fundamentals all working for AUD/USD; Fed rates headed down, while RBA's going up so AUD becomes stronger yield play. That should be enough for AUD/USD parity in months; "If the Canadian dollar could do it (reach parity), then I don't see why the Aussie can't," says Divyang Shah at Commonwealth Bank; "It's not out of the question, and in fact it's very likely." But skeptics say housing-related weakness in U.S. may spill over to consumption, leading to global downshift; this could cut demand for Australian commodities, also lead to general risk aversion which would hurt high yielding currencies. UBS currency strategist Benedikt Germanier says global slowdown doesn't necessarily mean AUD would boomerang, begin to fall vs USD because global slowdown would likely eventually lead to higher stock markets as interest rates lowered to boost liquidity; "Aussie hasn't done well in recent slowdowns," Germanier says; "But now, in my opinion, it could, because equities would go up and Aussie against the yen and the (U.S.) dollar has had a strong correlation to rising equities." AUD/USD last 0.8940.

Gen dk 23:25 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:10 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
2309 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY likely to get support from strong JPY-crosses, positive cues from U.S. stock market, says trader at major Japan bank. Says risk-appetite strengthening, JPY-carry trade positions getting rebuilt; tips support at 115.50, then 115. Still, USD/JPY failed to hold above 116 yesterday, suggesting "uncertainties over U.S. economic outlook and subprime mortgage woes are still weighing on the pair," making it "still a difficult environment for actively buying the dollar against the yen". Tips resistance at 116.30; USD/JPY last at 115.82 on EBS. EUR/JPY in uptrend but fast rise yesterday may mean some position adjustments coming up as well; tips resistance at 165.50 for now. EUR/JPY last at 164.83 on EBS. EUR/USD still in upward trend, may break record of 1.4283; support at 1.4210, then 1.4180. EUR/USD last at 1.4234 on EBS.

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:58 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
cut short and long GBPJPY at 236.68 & AUD JPY at 103.62

Syd .. 22:46 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Personal debt figures show alarming trends
is estimated that over the next 18 months, nearly two million borrowers will see their fixed rate mortgage deals expire. They will need to budget at least £100 / month more than they are currently spending and may also need to pay re-mortgage and / or large arrangement fees if they want to fix their mortgage for an additional period.

35% of mortgages taken out by home movers in July 2007 were "interest only" mortgages compared with only 12% taken out in July 2003. 27% of these "interest only" mortgages were taken out without a repayment plan specified to repay the capital.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid=NEWS&articlekey=7686&cat=2-0-0

Syd .. 22:40 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Debtmatters' plunges as clouds gather over IVAs
Debtmatters, which arranges repayment agreements for people in debt, has seen its share price plunge 73pc today as hardening attitudes on the part of creditors threaten the company's business model.LINK

Syd .. 22:38 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
British banks gorge on ECB's cheap credit

British lenders are shunning the Bank of England and turning instead to the European Central Bank on a massive scale, taking advantage of much lower interest rates and guaranteed anonymity to weather the credit crunch.LINK

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:25 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
sod 236.30 for 235.68 in 3- hour time frame..

Syd .. 22:23 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
FM if your around any view on the aud today in Asia thanks

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:21 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
2216 GMT [Dow Jones] Westpac says its risk aversion index broke back below the zero line and into net risk seeking territory last week (albeit only just); is first time index has been below zero since June, it says. "The fact the index has only just broken the zero line is particularly relevant when considering the rebound in carry currencies to date. Arguably, if volatility can continue to fall, this carry rebound has a long way to go yet."

Syd .. 22:16 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Companies should come clean on the value of leases on their books
INVESTORS should be very wary of the results reported by companies that rely heavily on leases.

Silly accounting rules can mean that the majority of many companies' assets and liabilities don't show up on their balance sheets. As a result, even terrific companies like Woolworths report grossly inflated returns on investment and provide financial risk measures that bear no relation to reality.

Following a spate of corporate crises such as Enron's collapse, the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated off-balance-sheet arrangements. Its mid-2005 report made sobering reading. It estimated that US-listed companies had committed themselves to lease payments totalling $US1.25 trillion ($1.4 trillion) that did not appear on balance sheets. About 90 per cent of Australian leases are off balance sheet and most companies have some.
australian

Rye, NY et 22:05 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
“All that I conclude is that the process of inventory adjustment has just started (housing) and we have a long way to go before residential housing and mortgage markets stabilize in the U.S…Recent declines in home prices are already eating into home equities and unless stock prices resume their pace of increase of earlier this year, U.S. consumer spending and GDP will be under pressure from declining household wealth."

"There is little relevant American history to guide us in judging the ultimate extent of home price decline or the timing of a new price recovery, or by extension, the economic impact on the rest of our trading partners."

Alan Greenspan, Reuters Conference in London today

Quoted by Mary Ann Hurley of D.A. Davidson
__________________________________________________
Keep your eye on November 23rd!

GVI john 22:02 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in red navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:57 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
2126 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/JPY surge could be held back by large Uridashi maturities scheduled for this month, says ANZ Bank; still expects fairly solid demand as "dangers of any higher Japanese interest rates remains remote." Tips 87.90-89.00 range today; last 88.74, tapped 8-week high of 88.88 offshore.

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:56 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Tnx Syd!

Stockholm za 21:51 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   

Re…..
Trading Rule # 312 :-
“If you do not have an opinion ( Your own ) about the market,, Then stay away from the market…”

Ok Rio Tinio I understand…Then you should visit the
GVI Learning website.
All the best to you..

Syd .. 21:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:38 Hi, all I have is for the month of October unless someone else has more info

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:38 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 21:27 GMT //
hi - you have any particular maturity dates in mind?

if there is redemption I think it will be reinforced by the profit taking in the end of the week - since the carry will be boosted at least till Thursday..

NYC NYC3 21:37 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
makes you wonder how hurt Tice is.

is he short GOOg as well?

Rio Tinto Analistafx 21:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 21:28 GMT October 1, 2007

Thanks za but i want more opinions like FM, Quidex and others! ;) I cant understand those charts (:(
GT & GL

Stockholm za 21:28 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   

Rio Tinto Analistafx 20:43
GVI Chart Points = Free forex daily data analysis by the pros at Global-View.com.
If you are a conscious trader, there is enough info on that page for you to obtain an opinion...
Happy trades…..

Syd .. 21:27 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Large NZD/JPY Uridashi maturities scheduled for this month

saopaulo cg 21:21 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
David Tice Sees S&P 500 Falling 40% Over Next 12 Months: Video October 1 (Bloomberg) -- David Tice, who manages the $800 million Prudent Bear Fund, talks with Bloomberg's Rhonda Schaffler from Dallas about investor confidence, his investment strategy, including evaluation of Starbucks Corp. and Harley Davidson Inc., and the outlook for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. (Source: Bloomberg)

Rio Tinto Analistafx 20:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi all!
Opinions about aud/usd for today and tomorrow.
Thanks!
GT & GL

The Netherlands Purk 19:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Yawn, you dont want to know my stop there NY. I am convinced that the bottom is here nearby, so i have just started to long, and i will add and add and than add some more. I am sure that i will gain otherwise i would not do this.
Now off..

AZUSA 4x-ed 19:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:56 GMT October 1, 2007
Very nice gains in equities... not just in the US but in the EU markets. Not quite ready to put on the party hat as the market still has to digest these new levels.

Been hearing rumors that every Texan is greeted at the border with a 'howdy pardner' and keys to a brand new pickup truck!?

The Netherlands Purk 19:40 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Yes NY agree on that one. Pip accumulation is the word for now. i find 50 pips a very nice gain. I wish you already have it and thank for it....
We will see if we gain, it is about time that the loonie shows us a nasty stophunt of those who dared to short from 1.01-1.00 and even 9988....
eyes more closed than opened now.

London NYAM 19:37 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Purk interested to know your stop, if your amenable and awake of course.

London NYAM 19:35 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Ahh your back and gone again Mr Purk. Going for Parity. Your probably right I usually cut out early. Im out of Eur/gbp short here now at .6965 from .7014. Nice trip and thought i could squeeze more but, as i said i usually get out early, but better to get the 'pips in the pocket', some wise canal-lover once said.

The Netherlands Purk 19:22 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Hmm NYAM, seems weird but have almost the exact entry: 099146....
I am going for the 1.0000000000000000000.
Wish you a nice gain there, and have a nice sleepy sleepy.
The clog is heading for his bed.

London NYAM 18:59 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
long usdcad .9914. stop .9889 target .9965 think we get a delayed usd buy up refecting stunted optimism into todays close. besides looks like an e-wave on this wave 4 is being set up.

USA Zeus 18:56 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Looks like a total collapse of the US markets. (I'm sure someone will concoct a reason as to why the markets are 'wrong'. Stay tuned for the comedians in the coming hours.)

LOL

Syd .. 18:49 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Spain's Vueling Airlines SA (VLG.MC) late Monday issued its second profit warning of the year, citing lower-than-expected ticket sales in August and September on flights scheduled for the fourth quarter.

Gen dk 18:40 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd .. 18:40 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Greenspan:Shanghai Equity Mkt Has All Hallmarks Of A Bubble

USA Zeus 18:05 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Dow up 200!!

USA BAY 18:04 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

No hurry, take your time. tia

USA Zeus 18:04 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:03 GMT September 28, 2007
Oil now at 83.50. Looks like it too will be taking a breather after recent advances.
___________________________________________________

Now at 79.45...Ole' Ole'

Bon Air VA Dennis 17:58 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
perhaps DJ, S&P and NASDAQ secretly began pricing the indices in Euro's.

;-)

Lahore FM 17:56 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
ldn and Bay will respond in a while.

USA Zeus 17:49 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Looks like with the Dow at record levels Santa Claus (and the elves) must be busy in the North Pole...

Quite the counter contra rally for the doom and gloomers- All short positions at a loss.

ldn 17:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:42 so why would the fed cut rates ?

Makassar Alimin 17:42 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
now who says that we have got problem? DJI and S&P500 up making new highs and more towards year end

ldn 17:37 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM
pls

ldn 17:36 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM and aud/usd

USA BAY 17:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

Can I have your view on eur/nzd, gbp/nzd and gbp/aud pls. tia

Vienna GD 17:24 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Thx FM and Zeus ... many good trades to you both!

USA Zeus 17:19 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 17:05 GMT October 1, 2007

GD- I agree with FM here. Think this one will oscillate and ebb and flow (wow and flutter) somewhere close to parity.
cheers

USA Zeus 17:16 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:47 GMT October 1, 2007
Not too fuel efficient but good on emissions. Pay through the nose is true-true...hence trading.
GT! :-)

Lahore FM 17:13 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 17:05 GMT October 1, 2007
GD,sideways is more like it.Nyam is keeping tabs on its moves.

Syd .. 17:10 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Overseas holiday homes to fall in value as properties flood the market
British owners of homes in Spain and Eastern Europe could see the value of their investments fall as a result of the credit crunch. Michael Ball, professor of real estate at Reading University, said that retreats across the Continent could fall in value as a glut of properties come on to the market after years of speculative buying.
Savills, the upmarket estate agents, said that the value of foreign homes owned by Britons has risen from £7bn in 1994 to £52bn today. In Spain, a crackdown on rogue developers and the share price collapse of many property companies has led to stagnation.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3013003.ece

Syd .. 17:06 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Compensation culture targeted in shift to right
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3015282.ece

Vienna GD 17:05 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM and Zeus ... what's next for usdcad ... north or south?

KL MY 17:00 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
any comment on gbp/usd? thanks,

scurti philadelphia 16:59 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lo FW & LONDON...muchas gracias...i can see $ strengthening if exports really zoom...even possible some currently moribund industries may rebuild with inflows due to weak $$..I buy nothing but USA shrimp now... i've seen the rusting shrimp boats along fla's west coast...they're still workin though...been sick too often from Chineese seafood...nuffs enuff...nephew just abondoned his house in michigan to seek work in New Jersey...pays the mortgage though...no living in Michigan...rust belt houses cheap but good only for rentals in college towns..i grew up when Sterling equaled $5...but cannot understand why drastic personal debt and topping real estate market in UK doesn't seem to bother Sterling...the world will regain belief in $ when we regroup as a unified nation. High oil prices and cheap $ may help us...a bitch slap that has us realizing we've traded our economic heritage for flat screens, shirts and trips in the car. No US leader will say the obvious "STOP SPENDING". 2 worthless wars don't help either...watch the Chineese loan us some of our own $$$s from the banks they will be opening here to buy their cars from neighborhood showrooms where dinosaurs GM & Ford used to roam. Brother Rick..a GM retiree..says last weeks strike was theater..UAW made big concessions time will reveal. LOL my Brothers in currencies. Scurti

USA Zeus 16:47 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
ldn 16:45 GMT October 1, 2007

Murcielago and A8L, while all wheel drive- do not tow the big Donzi very well.

London NYAM 16:47 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Dollar's not getting tremendous traction. USDCAD still pointing sideways and I think that says it all. USDJPY is going to have to cross 116.40 to get any where and it just seems to me this isnt going to happen any time soon. Tricky market in this area. Sniping seems to be the best starategy until break out. IMO

Zeus I hope its adequetly fuel efficient cause your gonna pay through the nose. Not to mention stink up the air. (God bless SUVs).

ldn 16:45 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
What happened to the Murcilago? or that is only for recon. missions?...lol

USA Zeus 16:39 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Yes the rust belt is suffering- as it has now for many years.

On another note- just bought a Toyota Tundra Crewmax Ltd 4x4 5.7L..."TRUCK THAT'S CHANGING IT ALL".

Dichotomy here is that these are selling faster than being produced- Made in San Antonio Texas by Texans.

FW CS 16:38 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
scurti philadelphia 16:19 GMT October 1, 2007
Dow gains and S&P gains not always from strong economy either. Dow/gold and Dow/Euro since like 2001 are actually down. So most of these equity gains have been purely inflation driven. Up in nominal terms but in real terms (Inflation adjusted down)

FW CS 16:35 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:12 GMT October 1, 2007
What you say is also true. BUt strong currency is not always a result of a strong economy either. Strong $ can also result form weak economy too.

Makassar Alimin 16:33 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
carry seems to be back again and this will propel everything higher and higher

USA Zeus 16:30 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Seems as though the Dow and S&P 500 want to break new record levels and many here seem puzzled by that as they are still curled up in the fetal position from where they found themselves since July.

London NYAM 16:28 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia. Perhaps the market is looking forward to the possibility that rate cuts will slow the rot and turn things around some.
Nonsense of course, but too much bad news tends to suggest you should fade it.

scurti philadelphia 16:19 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
FW thanks for the reply..weak dollar will help food commodity and machinery exporters...govt insistance that ethanol come from corn insures high food prices here and more campaign contribs from ADM et al..we pay at the checkout! Stopped at popular diner on fri late..5 waitresses and 3 customers..counter girl says business WAY,WAY off. We have invest prop in Pasco cty fla. realator there tells me more foreclosures than sales in cty this qtr. One of my tenants operates constr equip..working only few days a week..rent late...usually reliable payer.."no work" he says. DJI up over 14000...what are they thinking? Forward looking...AT WHAT? Confused and suspicious...cutting back on payments and squirreling away any xtra $$$...buying nada but food...oil tank full since july. thanx for listening!

USA Zeus 16:16 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Dow = 14035 +140

USA Zeus 16:15 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Pitty to those who were too sure that the already baked in the cake earnings scenario from the CDO clash this summer spelled certain doom today from a few small petty losses reported from the banks.

USA Zeus 16:13 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
stron = strong

USA Zeus 16:12 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 15:22 GMT October 1, 2007

Thx for the nice words. Agree that money supply does not tell us all that we need to know for prosperity. Just a few months ago everyone thought the economy and housing etc would rock on forever. Well, Zeus did not buy into that. I thought tings would unwind there. Now they have. However it is also the slow season for housing etc until spring. The builders are burning off inventory regarless of what they have to do with incentives to draw the crowd. New starts and permits have been extremely low for some time. All this looks like we have capitulated and housing will start the spring time rally in sales etc. Looking for next year to be stron in housing sales- but not value increases.

On the USD note- value of a single USD would obviously decline when another is printed, thus holding two instead of a single. However money supply is soley dictated by lending and interest and defaults.
If there is less lending and some defaults then the value would increase as other loan principal values decline as they are paid.

Perhaps as lending decreases + defaults increasing + principal payments = fewer USD's to come and a higher USD value. The USD declined as the printing presses ran overtime. Now they are not...

cheers mate

saopaulo cg 16:09 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
it is the first time in many many days that i feel that the euro is a little bit tired. OK, at least not so vigurous......but i am still affraid....

FW CS 16:01 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
scurti philadelphia 15:37 GMT October 1, 2007
This along with construction in the gutter across the midwest where I live and manufacturing leaving left and right what is left in the US? Makes me concerned longer term on the US economy

Syd .. 15:57 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   


FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and other European Union policymakers are pushing U.S. officials to support a stronger dollar.

Trichet said Monday he is paying "extreme" attention to remarks by U.S. officials that a strong dollar is good for the U.S., while last he was only paying "great attention" to such comments. His adoption of the word "extreme" hints that the speed and the strength of the euro's rise is becoming uncomfortable for policymakers. His comment also comes just after the euro touched an all-time high of 1.4283 in overnight trade in Asia.

"I have listened very carefully with great attention to Hank Paulson, Secretary of the Treasury and Ben Bernanke saying a strong dollar is in the interest of the U.S.," Trichet said in a Dutch television interview Sep. 26, when the euro was trading around 1.4127 against the dollar.

In upping the ante to "extreme" on Monday, Trichet's comments appeared to soothe the market. At 1502 GMT Monday, the euro was quoted at 1.4242 in Frankfurt, easing from 1.4283 against the dollar overnight.

Gen dk 15:46 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

scurti philadelphia 15:37 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Recession? Just in Atlantic city over the weekend...balmy friday night at end of summer...boardwalk and casino empty! Mom in Florida tells me bingos there closing down or cutting back on prize money as too few people coming. First time she has seen that in over 20 years! Brother Rick sells used cars in NJ...business dead...lots of iron to move! Dad's flea market business dead...dealers at local flea markets watching people walking around enjoying the great weather but buyers. I free lance and my cel phone hasn't wrung in several weeks with job offers...also unusual. Went to buy some chicken breasts at the market last week...$8.57 for package of 3! Beef, veal also high..only pork still reasonable. Box of cereal $6.00! Don't go by price of gasoline...market heavily manipulated..people VERY jumpy...the $100 bill is the new $20. Holding euroes and canadian....some swissies. Demos doomed with hillary.

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:36 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 15:16 GMT

You do not understand current popular sentiment or the divide in political attitudes, even within the Rep party these days and you over-estimate the ability of a lame duck President who does NOT have total control of Congress to issue policy edicts. Clinton under those circumstances couldn't do it in 2000, Bush I couldn't do it in 1992 nor could Carter when he was not a lame duck and held a majority on Congress in 1980.

Gen dk 15:29 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

FW CS 15:22 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:43 GMT October 1, 2007
O mighty Zeus. Maybe from your heights at Olympus you are doing well. Certainly respect you as a trader but I also live and see what is going on in the US and I will disagree with your assesment of the US economy. Money supply growth does not equal prosperity. But such things are not really relevant for trading.

Gen dk 15:20 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK YH 15:16 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 14:48 GMT October 1, 2007

Who knows Bush's party can win or not? Usually, those politican try to do something or issue some good policy to boost up the markets during the election period. Just wonder how come the market can ignore all the bad news today...

denver jake 15:11 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 08:13 GMT September 27, 2007
eur.jpy has already broken topside daily wedge
gbp.jpy broke 4 hour wedge topside which had been remarkably accurate previously. 235.5 breaks and watch it fly. maybe friday, maybe next week

if fortunate enough to see any more dips, buy em up.
235.40/50 is major support for now. 238+ should be seen by end of the week.

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:48 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 14:39 GMT

1). Bush's party is NOT likely to win the Presidency, House or Senate in 2008 general election.

2). his name is already "censored" in history.

Your argument is not valid.

USA Zeus 14:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 14:39 GMT October 1, 2007

Housing is housing- meltdown in some markets that were propped up with mortgage products that no longer are offered, stable in others. Dow at 14k is already good. Economy shows no proof of recession. Bush does not control- nor can a president control the economy (God bless America!)

HK YH 14:39 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:27 GMT October 1, 2007

Just my opinion, currently the housing market is already not that good. If the stock market is also not that good. Then the party of Bush cannot survive in the coming election. Bush also doesn't want to let his names censored in the history. Therefore, he must try to do something to make the markets feel healthy and atmosphere is good. Correct me if I am wrong.

Syd .. 14:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
The ISM data included "one potential inconsistency with past data," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. He noted the ISM employment index was marginally up and that "again sends a message that the August manufacturing employment data - when employment fell 46K - significantly overstated the weakness in this sector. The market is already thinking along these lines after the better August sum of states and initial claims numbers recently, and the data will only encourage a view not to get too USD short, before this Friday's employment report." The ISM's tame price data should also "assuage some fears that the Fed has taken chances with inflation," he said.

Hong Kong Ahe 14:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:31 GMT ;)

UK Alex 14:31 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
A bit of rudimentary analysis shows we are well within the 2% std dev band, so there's no need to float the conspiracy theories just yet.

USA Zeus 14:27 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 14:18 GMT October 1, 2007
Did you think those earnings announcements were some sort of shocker? Are future earnings more important than the past known events? Do you really think someone from Bush's gov't is controlling the markets under a curtain? Do you really believe in the aliens of Roswell and Area 51?

nj jf 14:25 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
yh, its how orders get executed. sometimes the client wants to buy alot but they may bid 80 and offer at 95 when they get what they want at 80 they cancel the selling @95 and the market turbo's higher.. theres so many combinations that also include options expiries its what sometimes causes you to lose money even when you are right-due to timing.

Syd .. 14:23 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
The soaring euro is emerging as a major source of concern as euro-zone manufacturers took a dimmer view of their business outlooks and order books in September.

Details of the euro-zone purchasing managers index, released Monday, showed the measure dropping to a 22-month low of 53.2 in September, from 54.3 a month earlier. That was the largest single-month drop since April 2005, according to the survey by NTC Economics.

"New export orders grew at the slowest pace since August 2005, attributed in many cases to the strength of the euro," the research firm said.

The overall score brought the PMI measure closer to what economists call the key 50.0 "boom/bust" line, since a reading below 50.0 would indicate that the sector is contracting.

One of the sharpest PMI declines came in France, where complaints about the euro's record highs have been the loudest.
New orders in France's manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in 28 months. The new orders index for French industry dropped to 48.6 in September, down sharply from the 52.5 level reported in August.

And that weakness was felt across the euro zone, with the data showing new order growth dropping to two-year lows in Germany and Italy and stagnating in Spain.

"The situation in the manufacturing sector in the euro area looks increasingly precarious," said Royal Bank of Scotland economist Jacques Cailloux.

The soaring euro was addressed by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Monday, who said in Malta that the weak dollar deserved "extreme attention." He wasn't clear what the reaction should be in policy terms.

His remarks came after the euro jumped to another new record of $1.4283 in currency trading earlier Monday. Trichet's observation pushed the euro lower, and it was trading at $1.4219 at 1300 GMT.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his government have routinely criticized the European Central Bank for policies that they say have driven interest rates higher and strengthened the euro. Lately, other European policy makers, including German government officials, have joined in.

"Short term, the ECB may still be hanging on to inflation concerns, but longer-term worries about slower growth momentum should eventually predominate the decision to cut rates," said David Brown, an economist at Bear Stearns International.

European finance ministers are debating whether to put the euro/dollar levels on the agenda of the Oct. 19-20 meeting of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations in Washington. The euro-zone ministers are expected to formulate their arguments for action on the dollar at a meeting in Luxembourg next Monday.

For many exporters, a euro pegged at over $1.40 over time could cut deeply into exports to parts of the world that do their trading in dollars.

In Germany, the Federation of German Wholesale and Foreign Trade, a leading trade organization, Monday said it expects German exports to the U.S. to decline by 5% over 2007, dragged down by the weak dollar.

"The question to be determined over the next six weeks is really whether the $1.40 mark is the new support line or not," a spokesman said.

HK YH 14:18 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
do you think it is strange... even Dow Jones up 100 pts, but JPY still only 115.9x, didn't change that much. Besides, tonight there are so many bad news about corporate earnng, like Citigroup, UBS. But the market still up 100 pts. As I said, the market is controlled by someone under the curtain. Before the president election, Bush's govt won't easy to let the market down.

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
favour EUR/USD to 1.4350+ to add to the IMM pile of position beavers and then ideally see some profit-takers drive the pair to 1.4120ish, and possibly to 1.40

New Brighton gvm 13:58 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:54 hey Zeus - any particular divergence/indicator/signal that is driving your US Dollar bull view? Is it a 2-3 day/2 week/2month view or is that evidence yet to be presented? TIA

USA Zeus 13:54 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
London HC 12:42 GMT October 1, 2007
You should have added keep selling gbp/usd on rallies, good for your broker
___________________________________________________

Pardon me. Forgot to add- Just keep selling GBP/USD on rallies. Good for your broker....even better for you!

USA Zeus 13:52 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Seems as if everyone expected stox to drop today on earnings (or lack there of)? Credit crunch is old hat.

Mtl JP 13:40 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
data risk:

14:00GMT - US ISM mrkt: 52.5 vs 52.9 last.

while 52.5 is above the 50 expansion/contraction pivot level, compared to last reading it is expected to decline and unlikely not help with players fears about current negative effects of the credit thingie on the economy.

London NYAM 13:36 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
FWIW closing out my my possies in EUR USD for some profit here at 1.4126 and EURJPY short from 164.90 is out. Things look like their brewing and can't shake the feeling that we wil get another dollar weakness extension. Eyeing usdcad and audusd for clues of breakdown or breakup.

par 13:30 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
thank you FM.

ldn 13:29 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
CATTLE-CRISIS FARMERS ARE FACING RUIN LINK

UK Alex 13:26 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy is going to have a heart attack when it gets to 180.

Lahore FM 13:23 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
par 11:11 GMT October 1, 2007
it is a crazy target for 4 to 6 weeks.180.00 eurjpy!!!let us see.

NS dear opposite and different views most welcome.for me targets are nothing fixed but opposite views makes me revise and review targets.

Gooner,yes agree there friend!

UK Alex 13:11 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 12:40 GMT October 1, 2007
We might get some bidders show up this time.

Syd .. 13:01 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
European Gold Unit Sells 71,000 Tons Of Gold Concentrates

USA Zeus 12:56 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Yes I can absorb their ignorance. They waste space and violate the forum rules with their boning and jabbing but they have not the balls to post their trades.

We'll let their trades speak for themselves. As for their ASSinine comments- I will selectively recall them with total recall later.

Happy (Mon)Day!

Syd .. 12:45 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Citigroup warns of 60% drop in earnings
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d3bef808-700f-11dc-a6d1-0000779fd2ac.html

London HC 12:42 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Zeus,

You should have added keep selling gbp/usd on rallies, good for your broker

USA Zeus 12:41 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:03 GMT September 28, 2007
Oil now at 83.50. Looks like it too will be taking a breather after recent advances.
___________________________________________________

Now at 81.40...Ole' Ole'

Syd .. 12:40 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
The Bank of England will offer GBP10B at its 3-month repo auction Tuesday. The terms will be the same as terms as last week's auction, which failed to attract any bidders, with a minimum bid rate of 6.75%. Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland note that 3-month sterling Libor fixed at 6.2775% Monday, "so it looks likely there will be no takers again

USA Zeus 12:36 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:12 GMT October 1, 2007
Freebie trade- Short GBP/USD on rallies.

Ahh yes- well they will jeer like steer. Best to send them down the street frothing and snotting before the bullfighter puts and end to it- Ole' Ole'

Syd .. 12:35 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
The European Central Bank notes with "extreme attention" a series of statements made by U.S. officials that a strong dollar is in the interest of the U.S., President Jean-Claude Trichet said Monday.

Speaking at a press conference to mark Malta's changeover to the euro Jan. 1, Trichet said "I have said and I repeat: I have noted with extreme attention that the U.S. secretary of the Treasury and my colleague at the Federal Reserve have said that a strong dollar is in the U.S. interest." European Union Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joachin Almunia, who also attended the press conference, supported Trichet's view on exchange rates.

Asked by a reporter whether he would back the Group of Seven leading industrial nations' communiqué on foreign exchanges, Almunia said "yes indeed...and I look forward to the next G7 statement."

The G7 has said excessive moves in exchange rates aren't welcome.

The euro has appreciated strongly vis-à-vis the dollar, causing concern that this may undermine euro-zone exports and slow the region's economic expansion.

ldn 12:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 12:32 GMT October 1, 2007
Zeus...over the years, he has had several nominations and won the "failure of the year "award..he has no competition in that respect..forget him....

USA Zeus 12:32 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 12:28 GMT October 1, 2007

Well you correctly reported the idea- my trade posts correctly followed afterward. Your pathetic rant is obvious. May the truth set you free. Follow the facts not your bigotry and you'll be fine.

Cheers!

Helsinki iw 12:28 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 12:43 GMT September 28, 2007
Shorting EUR/USD here 1.4185-1.42ish and on blips higher could be very interesting.

Not to mention the short several figures lower.

Now I'm definetly out on this subject.

USA Zeus 12:24 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:59 GMT September 28, 2007
Last EUR/USD add-on short 1.4263

USA Zeus 14:38 GMT September 28, 2007
Ok- Added EUR/USD shorts 1.4223

USA Zeus 14:08 GMT September 28, 2007
Ok- Added EUR/USD shorts @ 1.4212

USA Zeus 12:59 GMT September 28, 2007
Had the opportunity to short EUR/USD 1.4205 for an interesting trade

___________________________________________________

Interestingly I don't see any entries ahead of 1.42.
Will dedicate all gains to HELLsinki's memory loss (How to use the archive search) institute.

Happy Day!

Helsinki iw 12:22 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Zeus- a failing memory is better suited for a politician than a trader. Perhaps you should try your luck there?

Enough from me on the issue.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:21 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Quoted from .... [TRICHET] has joined the growing list of speakers with something to say about the Euro, noting with "extreme" attention the strong Dollar policy of the US. He adds that he refers to the words of US Tres Sec Paulson, and not as we would usually anticipate, gauging his outlook from the G7 statement. EU's Almunia notes Trichet words and is looking forward to the next G7 statement. However, whilst Juncker/Almunia have expressed increasing concern over exchanges rates, the problem is the same, i.e the Euro is bearing a larger impact of the global adjustments of deficits because of the exchange rate policies of some sovereigns, but notably China. In this respect there are some who expect the Chinese to offer a pre G7 oil branch. That though, if seen, is likely to be another minor tinkering of policy & simply not enough to alleviate pressure on the single currency.
Unquoted....

It is expected they put the Subprime problems and other collapse of the credit market were due to the exchange rate policies of China. Whoo..Not BOJ and its manipulation of both Rates (Interest Rate and Exchange Rate), not the fault of CARRY TRADE. Oh well, shouldnt it easy to be top world financial officer??? Shrug. The main job of BOJ now is being the printing machine.

USA Zeus 12:19 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 12:13 GMT October 1, 2007


Please explain- What is "well ahead"?

Helsinki iw 12:13 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, that seems a funny statement from you, considering you were shorting well ahead of 1,42.

UK Alex 12:11 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Housing inventory is growing and growing.

USA Zeus 12:10 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the over-zealous mASSes that were cheering and sneering were mistaken Friday afternoon as buying USD prooved the best bet from the nosebleed levels of EUR and GBP.

Gen dk 12:08 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 12:05 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 11:43 GMT October 1, 2007

I heard a rumor that, like Goldman, they were short the CDO meltdown.

London Gooner 12:04 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:09 GMT October 1, 2007
par 11:08 GMT October 1, 2007
120 for the month.
*
With Dow Jones looking to test higer than 14000 - USDJPY has room on the upside for 119.20/90 area.

Gen dk 11:49 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

saopaulo cg 11:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
now, we just have to wait for the big hole of Deustche Bank on October 10th, i think that Deutsche if we compare, it will be the bigger...

saopaulo cg 11:39 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Citigroup Cuts Profit Forecast, Cites `Weak' Credit Markets

By Steve Dickson

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, cut its third-quarter earnings forecast, citing ``weak performance'' in fixed-income credit markets and writedowns on leveraged loan commitments and mortgage-backed securities.

Citigroup expects to report a decline in net income of about 60 percent from the same period a year earlier, the New York- based bank said today in a statement distributed by Business Wire.

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Dickson in New York at [email protected] .

Last Updated: October 1, 2007 07:06 EDT

saopaulo cg 11:38 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Citigroup Cuts Profit Forecast, Cites `Weak' Credit Markets

By Steve Dickson

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, cut its third-quarter earnings forecast, citing ``weak performance'' in fixed-income credit markets and writedowns on leveraged loan commitments and mortgage-backed securities.

Citigroup expects to report a decline in net income of about 60 percent from the same period a year earlier, the New York- based bank said today in a statement distributed by Business Wire.

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Dickson in New York at [email protected] .

Last Updated: October 1, 2007 07:06 EDT

saopaulo cg 11:37 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Citigroup Cuts Profit Forecast, Cites `Weak' Credit Markets

saopaulo cg 11:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM,
enjoy it !!

St. Annaland Bob 11:32 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   

NZD/CHF looks like good long for 3%-4% from here

Gen dk 11:31 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 11:30 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 11:25// Thank you sir!
Out of half at 163.27 stop lowered to entry.

saopaulo cg 11:25 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
very nice timming NYAM !!!

Gen dk 11:24 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai NS 11:21 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
FM with due respect to ur views strongly feel 116.20 if seen shuld to be toppish cheers gud luck just a different view point gl gt

GVI john 11:18 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in red navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI

HK YH 11:14 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
no kidding, USD/JPY will back to 120?

par 11:11 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
thank you. and eurjpy?

Lahore FM 11:09 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
par 11:08 GMT October 1, 2007
120 for the month.

par 11:08 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
FM,

which is your target for usdjpy? thanks

London NYAM 11:03 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Cheers FM.

Lahore FM 10:55 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:52 GMT October 1, 2007
thanx NYAM,165 is morning target.expect a breather there but only a breather.60 pips lower after that might become a long again.

Lahore FM 10:53 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 10:50 GMT October 1, 2007
no Analista,a bit more than normal.lolzz....gtgl!

London NYAM 10:52 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lovely trade FM.
Any views on E/J appreciated.

London NYAM 10:50 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Just sold E/J at 164.90 stops around 166 looking for move to 162.80 first.

Rio Tinto Analistafx 10:50 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:44 GMT October 1, 2007
at 236.34** for +640

FM...normal! :D

Lahore FM 10:44 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
at 236.34** for +640

Lahore FM 10:41 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:15 GMT September 25, 2007
Lahore FM 12:38 GMT September 25, 2007
dded yet another gbpjpy long 229.94 stops at 40.
--
closed half at 231.29 for +135 pips.stops for remainder 1/2 to entry
==
closed remainder half at 236.36 for +640 pips in all.

London NYAM 10:40 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 08:56// Yes 1.3975 if you like whats 25 pips between us? Indeed we could see 1.3919 but since this doesnt look to me like the present wave structure is complete (unless we break1.3845 and 1.3683) then trailing this one closely seems better and looking for a place to long for 1.45-1.48.
I did I am short 1.4210 +1.4260 and unloaded half again at 1.4223. Lowering stops as the market has now given us some defensive lines 1.4260 and of course the high but i prefer to lower to entry.
Unfortunately, USDCAD is not behaving well and should strengthen more decisively.

Gen dk 10:03 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK YH 09:55 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Just read the news that Alan Greenspan claimed the subprime problem is almost finished. So don't need to scare Oct will have another big drop!!! Let's short USD and long other currency, GBP, EUR etc

Gen dk 09:54 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK YH 09:50 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 09:43

really? 1988 has president election? thanks for telling me. but what is p/e is dynamics? other buddy, any comment?

Gen dk 09:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

saopaulo cg 09:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
yh,

according to your view Ronald Reagan let happened the crash in the dow in october 1987 , even if there was a presidential election in 1988.

P/E are dynamics........

Lahore FM 09:31 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 00:16 GMT October 1, 2007
Morristown GG 23:55 GMT September 30, 2007
GG,tankan is up but i still feel usdjpy goes up but u never know.still original analysis looking for selling of jpy against usd and eur,gbp,aud,cad,nzd and the rest.see you all later!
--
usdjpy surely a long but present level of 115.64 is not the best price for it.shud have been done at 114.85 when above was posted.

Lahore FM 09:26 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Jerusalem ML 09:20 GMT October 1, 2007
agree!

Jerusalem ML 09:20 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
my tip of the day-

Long USD/JPY towards 116.30

good luck !

M

Jerusalem ML 09:19 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
BUD

Hi bud, being short is indeed the way to play usd/cad
however i think speculative positions are at record levels on the loonie, so any reversal could be violent and lead us again above parity
g/luck

HK YH 09:09 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 08:57

you are right, the good Tankan should give some support to the yen, but unfortunately no, fall to 115.58. It is weird, right? Seem people only concentrate in carry trade now.

october has been historically a month of big crisis and this year, it can be one of those... I don't think so, because
1. P/E of the global markets are not very expensive.
2. Next year US will have President election, Bush won't let this happen and past data show that usually market will up during this period.
3. Corporate earning still support the shares, most of the earning report also can beat the expection.

BUD PS 09:05 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
I was wondering if anyone could throw in next target for USD/CAD - I am short from 1.0012... thanks.

saopaulo cg 08:57 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
YH,

i was talking about european and US markets. Obviously, with that acceptable Tankan the asian markets closed already up. I think that the good Tankan will give some support to the yen also even if it is fallling right now.

Lets see how the europeans and the Dow do today and this week waiting for earnings. I always remember that october has been historically a month of big crisis and this year, it can be one of those.Thank you.

Lahore FM 08:56 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Jerusalem ML 07:41 GMT October 1, 2007
thanx ML!incidentally i am still bullish on eurusd but i see you have a downward bias.market is the best arbiter i would say!

The Netherlands Purk 08:56 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, correction, 13975... did you do the 142 thing last Friday and yesterday evening?
Cheers

Lahore FM 08:54 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
GG,lahore is the 2nd largest city in pakistan in southeast asia.

Lahore FM 08:53 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 07:58 GMT October 1, 2007
you are right i am flat at the moment on audusd and nzdusd.i have made the chunk which looked good for taking.

if i write small long or short in a post then it is 10k only.if nothing of size is stated then it is anything from 0.1 ml to 1 mil and higher.

still see strength for currencies.will enter when i like the prices again on techs.

eurusd already looking good at 1.4224 now for fresh longs with reasonable stops.

usdjpy as i posted at release of tankan this pre tokyo am that it is a long.higher tankan,higher usdjpy.why!for that's the way techs are poised.

London NYAM 08:48 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
If an in-line PMI estimate gives USD strength what does that say about positions and expectations? Euro may have already started its slide to 1.4000 supports. News focii will start toswitch to problems of Euro-zone and over reaction/fear in US.

HK YH 08:39 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 08:29 all the stock markets will fall today? Indeed all the Asian Markets are up, and current European markets are back to normal (up) too. How can you get this conclusion? Besides, the futures of Dow Jones is slightly up too.

Syd .. 08:38 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan MOF Tsuda: Tankan Shows Japan Econ On Recovery Path

London NYAM 08:36 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
King lowering rates would maul all these GBP longs. looks like there may be room for that possibility.

Syd .. 08:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Aug Mortgage Approvals 109,000 Vs Jul 115,000

saopaulo cg 08:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
sorry i forgot my stop for the short usdjpy at 115.92.

saopaulo cg 08:29 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
small short of usdjpy at 115.48, think that al the stock markets will fall today related to bank earnings and new quarter. More risk aversion.

Syd .. 08:28 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 08:24 nothing impossible in this market :-))

HK YH 08:24 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd, I don't think GBP can drop that much. You can see EUR, always try to set record high. EUR is leading GBP to up due to their correlation. Just like AUD & NZD. I think the only way of GBP goes down is EUR also down too. But this is quite impossible.

Syd .. 08:09 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Sterling may just be storing up trouble.

At the moment, a recovery in risk appetite and a weak performance by the dollar is helping the pound to escape the worst.

But with Northern Rock's (NRK.LN) problems still rumbling away in the background and with more evidence of a gradual deterioration in the U.K. economy rolling in, sterling is still very much at risk.

"We believe the pound's gains will not be sustainable in the near future as weaker than expected economic data along with money markets being far from 'normal' will bring more surprises to the downside," said Alina Anishchanka, a currency strategist at UBS.

Sterling's current resilience has much to do with the continued steady decline in risk aversion and investor interest in high-yielders returning now that the turmoil in global financial markets has subsided.

How long this lasts, however, is questionable. Thomas Harr, senior foreign exchange strategist with Standard Chartered in Singapore, expects risk appetite to fall back again. He argues that it has only improved because of the Federal Reserve's decision to slash rates by a surprise 50 basis points last month.

"Eventually, the downside risk to the U.S. economy and global credit markets will morph back again from just being dollar negative to being negative for risk appetite," Harr said.

As for the dollar, some reckon that its current weakness isn't sustainable. UBS's Anishchanka expects the continued uncertainty in credit markets to still take its toll on global growth. And given that speculative short positions in the dollar are at extreme levels, the U.S. currency could yet snap back.

"We don't recommend selling the dollar at current levels even though the greenback remains weak for now," she said.

For the pound this will hardly be good news and continued credit problems in the U.K. won't help either.

On Friday, it became apparent that Northern Rock, the troubled U.K. mortgage lender, had actually borrowed GBP8 billion from the Bank of England, nearly triple the GBP3 billion it was initially thought to have needed.

Syd .. 08:01 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Sterling has been buoyed in recent weeks by the dollar's slide and resurgent appetite for high-yield currencies, but betting on that to continue is risky. Continuing fears over UK bank Northern Rock and early signs of trouble in the broader mortgage market could build a case for interest rate cuts and hit the pound

Morristown GG 07:58 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore, I notice everyone refers to you that way, not your initials FM. So FM, just wondering where the city of Lahore is, and also roughly what size lots and number of lots you trade - if thats not an improper question - maybe out of order? Just wondering how much you put on the line when you trade and make those kinds of profits. Again forgive me if that is out of line to ask. Also, wanted to make sure that when we read your posts, sometimes they are copies of earlier dates. We should not misunderstand that you might not be long NZD or AUD now. Can you tell us what you see for the week ahead? Thanks,

Jerusalem ML 07:41 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi Lahore

You are doing well , im happy for you...
This week seems like a reversal in place..Dollar to get stronger
Euro to 1.40??

Take care,

M

Lahore FM 07:31 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:19 GMT September 25, 2007
Lahore FM 07:35 GMT September 25, 2007
Lahore FM 07:35 GMT September 25, 2007
long audusd 0.8624,stops at 0.8580*.
-
closed half at 0.8714 for 90 pips.
--
closed remainder half at 0.8903 for +279 pips in all.

--
do i love usdjpy rise despite strong tankan??!!!

Lahore FM 07:28 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:49 GMT September 28, 2007
Lahore FM 17:20 GMT September 25, 2007
Lahore FM 07:41 GMT September 25, 2007
added nzdusd long 0.7360,stops later.
--
closed just 1/3rd of the long at 0.7417 for +57 pips.keeping the rest for 0.7700
--
closed another 1/3rd at 0.7571 for +211 pips so far.keeping last 1/3rd in for 0.7700 with stops at 0.7490.
--
closed last 1/3rd at 0.7658 for +298 pips in all.

The Netherlands Purk 06:58 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
All we need is a few more people with bigger egos saying that loonie and dollar will fall more, so please continue to talk the dollar into the gutter, than i will play the longs in dollar for the 13975 gaps, and a swing in loonie to 1.05.
Everybody can tell you this and this, but dont follow, just carry out your own plan. If i see this RL guy, he better put it on a nice interest account, and he still would be smiling. So carry on please, and the not followers and believers will gain...

Syd .. 06:58 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has warned that a global economic downturn was looming, triggered by the "lunacy" of public debt.

Bloomberg, one of the world's richest people, blamed a crisis of confidence for what he said would be either a brief dip or a nosedive.

Advocating fiscal conservatism, Bloomberg said governments should build up a surplus to fall back on during economic slides
AFP

ldn 06:52 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
UBS AG writes down $3.4 billion in losses
ZURICH, Oct 1 (Reuters) - UBS AG, the world's largest wealth manager, unveiled $3.4 billion in losses, swept out senior managers and slashed jobs in one of the biggest casualties yet worldwide from the credit crunch.

UBS said on Monday it would write down 4 billion Swiss francs ($3.42 billion) in losses in its fixed income portfolio and elsewhere, resulting in a third-quarter loss of 600-800 million Swiss francs, its first quarterly loss in nine years.

saopaulo cg 06:49 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Bloomberg-
JPMorgan predicts the dollar will fall to 112 yen at the end of this year, compared with a previous forecast of 116 yen, the bank said in a report today. Against the euro, the dollar will drop to $1.45, weaker than an earlier forecast of $1.40, it said.

Gen dk 06:43 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Helsinki iw 06:12 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 10:51 GMT September 11, 2007
EUR/USD testing 1,3850/70. It can still hold, but a clear break would target the 1,45/46 level. IMHO

Helsinki iw 19:50 GMT September 18, 2007
EUR/USD has decisively broken higher and is likely to trade to the 1,45/46 level during the next few weeks. imho

---

No change in view. Most likely that the target will be reached this week already. Expecting at least a correction from that level. USD/CAD targets sub 0.96, perhaps even 0.91. imho

madrid mm 06:08 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
* BoJ Q3 Tankan, Big Manufacturing DI 23, vs market exp of +22. and Big Non-manufacturing DI at 20, from 22 in June.

* Capex at +8.7% vs 7.5% exp. USD/JPY averaging 115.20.

* NKS: BoJ Atsushi Mizuno says markets will regain stability after financial markets find out their mark to market value.

* Fmr Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says "The Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ - all are losing their ability to influence longer-term rates". Decline in housing prices is not over. "The demographics over the long run suggest that USD will decline- Reuters.

* ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet says transparency best protection against contagion. Declines comments on USD.

* UBS AG says it writes down positions and predicts an overall Group Q3 pre-tax loss of between CHF600-800m. To reorganise management and to cut 1,500 investment banking jobs by year end.

* Confirming WSJ article: UBS Becomes Major Casualty Of Credit Woes: UBS plans to write down as much as CHF4b in fixed-income assets, incl securities tied to U.S. subprime mortgages

* Telegraph: Chan Alistair Darling has staged an embarrassing climbdown by pledging to guarantee only first GBP35,000 of savings rather than GBP100,000 he originally suggested.

* UK Sunday Times: Ernest Young Item club calls on BoE's MPC to cut 50bps interest rates this week to head off a sharp slowdown in the economy. (BoE and ECB meet this week on rates)

* Oman CB says it is 'firmly" committed to USD peg.

* Germany Economy Ministry sees 2008 GDP closer to 2% than previous 2.4% - Handelsblatt.

* WSJ: Nokia Corp. last night was deep in discussions to purchase navigation- software maker Navteq Corp. $7.61 b (EUR5.34b) mkt cap.

* Relatively quiet start to a new Q4 2007, or H2 FY07/08 for Japan, with Sydney, HK, and China away for holidays. EUR extends to hit fresh all time highs 1.4281 above Friday's 1.4278, pushing USD INDEX down to fresh all time lows of 77.657 as USD remains broadly under pressure.

* AUD hit fresh 18-yr highs 0.8928, clearing the 0.8900 handle in holiday thinned Australian markets, as Gold shines at fresh 28-year highs of $746.30, highest since January 1980.

* The "Firmer" BoJ Tankan big manufacturers DI of +23, triggered USD/JPY sales to 114.72 from 114.95 as market was looking for weaker than expected number around +20-22 range.

EUR/JPY dipped to 163.75 from 163.95 after failure to clear 164 initially, with some focus on the huge EUR27.65b coupons, EUR79.72b redemption for month of Oct (though there are issuances as well) triggering talks of Japanese interest to sell USD/JPY on rallies to 115.10-20, EUR/JPY at 164.10-20. EUR/JPY then broke through 164 handle as French, Europeans bought, to 2-month highs of 164.15.Downside finding good bids from Japanese investors and toushin.

AUD/JPY hit 2-m highs on Cross/JPY buying.CHF weighed by news of UBS write-downs, EUR/CHF hit 2-m highs 1.6625.N

Nikkei +18.61pt or 0.11% at 16,804.30. JGBs a tad higher on BoJ Tankan, 10-yr yield -0.015% at 1.660%.

Crude oil steadies at $81.72 after NY fall.

Gold hit fresh 28-year highs of $746.30, since 1980.

madrid mm 05:59 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
China's economy- How fit is the panda?

China's booming economy is helping to support global growth as America turns sickly. So now it has to keep up the pace

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9861591

Some Kampo news 8-)
Japan Post - Pushing the envelope

Privatising the world's biggest bank will not be easy
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9867489

madrid mm 05:54 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Switzerland's largest bank, UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), is expected to warn on Monday that it has written off billions of dollars on fixed-income assets, making it one of the biggest casualties so far of turmoil in world credit markets, the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal reported.

Washington MRM 05:52 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Montreal RL

I would be very careful hedging against a spike in USD/CAD at these levels. I think that if you could endure another 50 points of pain, you should get 300-400 points of bounce at least. The slowdown in the U.S. economy will surely run over into Canada, despite the high commodity prices. In the recently released GDP report, you see some of this, particularly with a spillover in travel (down 7% from US). Therefore, I would either cut the position here in total and take the medicine or put a stop 50 points below (roughly 0.9870). IMHO.

HK RF@ 05:36 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:56 GMT October 1, 2007
Just short EUR/USD and sing a happy tune.

You may place a S/L at 1.4290 or you may be carried to about 1.4345.
On the other hand if you will see it below 1.4243 you may have a chance for 1.4212 profit at first

madrid mm 05:34 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
and children are more clever than we think 8-)

http://www.time.com/time/cartoonsoftheweek/0,29489,1666689_1454829,00.html

madrid mm 05:26 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Gm FX Jedi

US$ weakness ---- > A cartoon is worth a 1000 words
Time mag

Syd .. 05:21 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Voter support for Australia's ruling Liberal-National coalition has slipped slightly over the past two weeks, a poll has found, signaling the government could still face a significant defeat if an election is to be called now.

According to the Newspoll survey published in The Australian newspaper Monday, the coalition has 44% of the two-party-preferred vote, down one percentage point from the last poll.

The opposition Labor party has secured 56%, 12 points ahead of the government.

USA Zeus 05:20 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 05:15 GMT October 1, 2007

Hello NS. None in specific terms. Will know better when it rolls.
cheers!

out for now.

Syd .. 05:20 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY slips to session low 163.74 on selling by Japanese investors, says trader at major Japan bank; says he doesn't know of any fresh cue that would spur such move. Tips support at 162.70 for now. USD/JPY slips in tandem with EUR/JPY

Mumbai NS 05:15 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Zeus gud day any targets in mind gl gt

USA Zeus 05:12 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Freebie trade- Short GBP/USD on rallies.

Morristown GG 05:04 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
And Warren's opening sentence for that section:
"We’ve come close to eliminating our direct foreign-exchange position, from which we realized
about $186 million in pre-tax profits in 2006"

Morristown GG 05:01 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Jake, Thanks for that link. Quoting Mr. Buffett,
"When we first began making foreign exchange purchases, interest-rate differentials between the
U.S. and most foreign countries favored a direct currency position. But that spread turned negative in
2005. We therefore looked for other ways to gain foreign-currency exposure, such as the ownership of
foreign equities or of U.S. stocks with major earnings abroad."
That is what I was referring to. He was taking advantage of the carry trade, but stopped, favoring instead, equities or stocks with major earnings abroad (not in dollars) I know he still plays the currencies a bit, - I mean I don't read his reports, but I watch his interviews. I enjoyed reading those pages, and will try to read more - he has a way of putting things that helps simplify the complex. I wonder what a recent letter would say regarding the amount invested in AUD or NZD where he had made hundreds of millions in 2006

USA Zeus 04:56 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Just short EUR/USD and sing a happy tune.

new albany mb 04:55 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad still looks negative-however support should come in around .9895/9870--montreal rl--dont let your hedge go negative

denver jake 04:36 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 04:05 GMT October 1, 2007

www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2006ltr.pdf

Note page 16 as it details forex exposure.

Hong Kong Ahe 04:33 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 04:21 GMT - Shouldnt USDCAD rebounce from its low but it keeps at its year low and daylow of 0.9916 and going south after the news to a fresh 31-year low of 0.9913. Frenzy Carry traders.

Syd .. 04:21 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
China has ordered all poultry imports and relative products shipped from Canada after Sept. 23 be returned or destroyed to ward off the H7N3 avian influenza virus, Xinhua news agency reported Monday.

Syd .. 04:14 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Spot gold edges higher in very thin trade, may correct to $730, $720/oz in short-term as speculative longs at historical high, says Tokyo-based trader at major Japan house. Latest CFTC data show funds, or non-commercials, now net long 189,498 lots, up nearly 20% from previous week

Morristown GG 04:05 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
I agree with that. It seems the carry traders are not reading the news and seeing what we see - re banks failing etc. What alarms me is that the same Hedge Fund players that came up with CMO and CDO securities, themselves made up of mixtures of sliced up mortgages, used them as collateral to borrow from banks at high leverage, and then taking that borrowed money, opened up margin accounts and leveraged it again in long carry trade positions. Many are in the money for a long time now, but as the underlying collaterallized debt looses value, the loans are called, requiring liquidation of the positions. This is how the banking crisis spreads everywhere else. I hear there is maybe $400 trillion in these leveraged positions of speculative leveraged positions of all types, which could come unwound if the underlying collateral of say 4 trillion looses value. Someone correct me if I'm wrong please. Our connundrum sp? at this point is that if one believes the dollar is headed down, and the yen is not allowed up for now, What do the dollar sellers buy? They are buying NZD, AUD, Euro, GBP etc., which in turn drives up the same pairs in yen. So the time has to come when the yen cannot hold on any longer and must be allowed to rise, or the dollar sellers, just dump their positions and buy gold, silver and other hard assets, instead. That's why Buffet has stopped trading Forex. He got sick of the stupidity and unpredictablility of central bank and other plunge protection intervention. He now plays the international lack of equilibrium by investing in foreign companies that will benefit as the dollar falls.

Syd .. 03:53 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
If Barclays Deal Fails, Investment Banks Lose Big -Report
The likely collapse of Barclays PLC's (BCS) EUR67.5 billion bid for ABN Amro Holding NV (ABN) this week will cost the British bank GBP80 million in fees paid to advisers, according to The Times in London on Monday.

But the biggest losers, if ABN does reject Barclays, as most analysts expect, will be the six investment banks advising on the deal, according to the newspaper. Banking sources believe that the advisers stand to lose at least GBP400 million and possibly as much as GBP800 million in fees, according to The Times.

Barclay Capital, Citigroup (C), Credit Suisse (CS), JPMorgan Cazenove, Deutsche Bank (DB) and Lazards are understood to have been retained by Barclays on the basis that the majority of their fees will be paid only if the bid were successful, the newspaper said.

http://timesonline.co.uk

Alaska Moon 03:48 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Montreal RL 03:20 GMT October 1, 2007
========
RL... I am sure you will get a lot of advise, but here is my advise....If you want to learn this game, open a "demo" account and learn how trading is done. Next...Open a "mini" account, one dollar per pip, with a balance of $2,000 and trade that a couple of years. If you can make money with a mini account, then you can trade a standard account.
I have traded live for 5 years, and it is a continually learning
process. This year has been a lot different than last year...
I wish you good luck and hope you get out of this mess with your "skin"...
Moon

Morristown GG 03:38 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
RL, So, Wow! You have given a broker $1.6 million of hard earned and borrowed money for a margin acct. - First maybe half that, but now you own a FOREX spot position in USD/CAD avg 1.11 for 16 million long USD/CAD as well as of late, a short USD/CAD of same amount. I finally get it. I guess your broker was talking you into continuing to buy the USD/CAD as it sank for the last couple months, believing it could not go this low. Now that everyone gets the picture, I'll let them advise you, I'm still learning too. My only advise is to have a heart to heart with that broker, and re read your agreement, consider a call to the govt agency in Canada, that oversees these brokers, and the way they qualify potential clients. They are not supposed to be retailing their services to those who put their entire net worth into the account. Did he realize you were doing this, or did you maybe fib a little on the forms when qualifying for the account?

Hong Kong Ahe 03:33 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 03:07 GMT - It verified players (Carry traders) not reading news nor fact and just sell USD and YEN crazily. USDCHF even goes stronger further and at its low of 1.1646 from dayhigh 1.1658 daylow 1.1625.

Syd .. 03:32 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
1-Mo USD Put/JPY Call With 113.50 Strike Bought

Montreal RL 03:20 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 03:10 GMT October 1, 2007
Sorry to waste your time GG but I have 16Million long USD avg 1.11USD/Cad At 165K per 100 pips
and now 16M @.9928 short USD to hedge.
If that is wasting your time I apologize.
I have given 1.6 million on margin to cover everything and have mortgqged everything I have.
I thank JP for all his advice so far. Sorry I am just extremely nervous.

Morristown GG 03:10 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
JP, I think from his post, RL is saying (RL correct me if I'm wrong) that he was long USD/CAD at 1.11, which was quite a while ago. He said that he owned 16M worth, which I think means that his margin at the time of the purchase was $16,000. Assuming his leverage is 1:200, standard 100,000 lots, the margin is $500 per lot Thinking out loud, and possibly wasting our time - sorry, His broker probably was churning his account with smaller long dollar positions, and lost his $16,000. At this time he still owns a losing $16,000 in long USD/CAD positions. Sinc he got a margin call, that would be say 30 lots long USD/CAD right?. So to hedge that he had to draw down the rest of his equity line on an over appraised house, and his broker talked him into "Hedging" his losing position with either the same size short of 30 lots, or perhaps he bought 4-6 put options as his hedge. RL, what did happen?

Syd .. 03:08 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD's upward march "will surely knock the nascent recovery" enjoyed by exporters, says Bank of NZ senior markets economist Craig Ebert; "we'll certainly be looking for any such impact in the upcoming business surveys and anecdote." Notes pair now at levels where RBNZ first intervened June 11 to sell Kiwi, cap topside.

Syd .. 03:07 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
UBS To Report Big Loss Tied To Credit Woes
Swiss banking giant UBS AG, which recently ousted its chief executive in the wake of losses at an in-house hedge fund and defections of top investment bankers, plans to write down as much as 4 billion Swiss francs, or $3.41 billion, in assets, including securities tied to U.S. subprime mortgages.
The big write-down would make UBS, Europe's third-largest bank, one of the most prominent casualties of the recent turmoil in global credit markets. It also raises questions about the management of the bank's securities business, especially the way it has handled its expansion into the U.S.

Another casualty of the turmoil is expected to be Huw Jenkins, chief of UBS's investment-banking division. According to a person familiar with the matter, Marcel Rohner, the bank's new chief executive, will personally oversee the division, replacing Mr. Jenkins.

A UBS spokesman in Zurich, where the bank is based, declined to comment.
WSJ

Syd .. 03:05 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
The U.S. Senate Finance Committee is reviewing whether to change the nation's tax rules to prevent offshore hedge funds from sidestepping withholding taxes on U.S. stock dividends by using derivatives, people familiar with the matter say.

The evaluation is at an early stage and is part of a multipronged examination of taxation of hedge funds by the committee, these people say.

The U.S. Treasury loses more than $1 billion in potential tax revenue each year through this practice, accountants and others in the industry estimate. As reported in The Wall Street Journal last month, securities firms in recent years have seized upon a new money-maker: They pitch to their hedge-fund clients ways to make dividend payouts on U.S. stocks even fatter by avoiding taxes on them.
WSJ(10/1) Hedge Funds Could Lose Offshore Shelter

saopaulo cg 02:53 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Deustche Bank annoounces results on October 10, market will be waiting for that number.

Singapore DT 02:49 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
as we approach 1.4230 euro there would be a lot of relieved noise, but hang on a sec, 1.4315 is on the card

Mtl JP 02:33 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
GG 02:16 / that multi-factor approach and "hedge" trade tactic would not work IF one's account is one dollar away from a margin call.

Morristown GG 02:22 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Sorry that was meant for JP, not JL

Morristown GG 02:16 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
JL? Its especially hectic when dealing with phone calls through an intermediary broker. I suspect he might get called once or twice a day. I'm still learning too. When you use the term, hedge, lets say he was long 100,000 USD/CAD, and was losing last week, got a margin call, and his broker told him to hedge his position for the time being. So he might have been asked to trade 4-6 times as much in the very short term, if that's what you mean. In that case, he would need 4-6 times more in margin cash. We won't really know unless he responds. It will be interesting.

Mtl JP 02:05 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
GG 01:46 / "hedge" fans, of course, would not be allocating same amount. They would allocate a multiple factor (4 or 6x or possibly more) that of the original and now the loser possie and expect to be snipping trades for quick banking of small but multiple rapid-fire profits to counterbalance the running loss. A very hyper kind of trading lifestyle, as I suspect we both vividly appreciate.

Syd .. 01:50 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Chancellor reconsiders savings pledge
The Chancellor has staged an embarrassing climbdown by pledging to guarantee only the first £35,000 of savings held in British banks and building societies rather than the £100,000 he originally suggested
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/01/cnsavings101.xml

Syd .. 01:46 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Tax rise fuels petrol price fears Petrol prices could surge to near record highs from next week after the government's 2p rise in fuel duty came into effect on Monday morning. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7021021.stm

Morristown GG 01:46 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
RL, Correction: I meant Short USD / CAD Sorry for typo.
So your loosing position was betting the USD/CAD would go up, ($ up) and you covered your margin when it went down and your broker told you to invest more money for a "Hedge" position, which was betting the USD/CAD would continue down. This would at best put your account on hold, because as one looses the other will win the same amount - assuming the same amount invested on each side.

Syd .. 01:44 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
High earners hit debt troublehttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/774603c4-6df2-11dc-b8ab-0000779fd2ac.html

Morristown GG 01:29 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
RL, I see now that your friend or broker used the word Hedge, but it was in the context of reversing or "Hedging" your losing trade. They had you short CAD/USD and told you to hedge your bet by buying another position $16M (thousand?) long CAD. This means you are probably not trading the spot FOREX market, but futures or options. I suspect futures as you mentioned a margin account. I feel that your broker doesn't really care about you.
He is probably calling another ten a day trying to get another sucker ready to replace you once he's finished with you. When he signed you up, I'm sure he told you to overreport your income and assets, so you would qualify. - and downplayed the fact that this type of investing is only for "Risk Capital", or play money that you won't miss if it is lost. Its like walking into a casino with $300.00 and saying its my entertainment money - no broken heart if it is lost.
I'm wondering how much you have lost and over how long a period?

Sydney ACC 01:26 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP/AUD on the monthly chart looks very bullish.
Currently 0.4345, having along with all other AUD crosses risen substantially from teh precipitious fall to 0.3878 on 16th August.
Looking at the monthly chart over the last 18 years the high was 0.5326 in April 1996, the low 0.3306 in September 2001. The 50% retracement on these levels is 0.4406, in July 2005 the pair hit 0.4408 only to go lower. Given these moves I see a good chance we tackle this level again. Looking further out the 61.8% retrcaement would take us up to 0.4665.
Prior to the Asian financial crisis AUD/GBP generally traded around the 0.4500 level.
Given the prospects for energy and commodities, particularly soft commodities and interest rate trends the fundamentals support AUD over GBP.

ldn 01:13 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Rising oil prices linked to civil unrest
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/30/news/fuel.php

Syd .. 01:11 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Labor retains its lead
THE Howard Government still faces "annihilation", with a 12-point Labor lead in the polls almost guaranteeing the election will not be held until at least November 17.

After a two-week parliamentary sitting that went well for the Coalition, and a couple of campaigning gaffes from Labor, the Government will be disappointed that today's Newspoll shows Labor has kept the election-winning lead it has held for months.

John Howard is much more likely to accept the advice from his ministers and advisers to hold off calling the election as long as possible if Newspoll continues to show no closing of the gap in Labor's lead. There is also a mounting view that Kevin Rudd will suffer the longer the election campaign runs. A slight fall in satisfaction with the Opposition Leader, from near-record highs, will be seen as some justification from government MPs to delay calling an election.
As of today, the option of a November 3 election is almost ruled out, although technically possible. The likelihood of a poll on November17 becomes a near certainty, with November 10 still possible.

Montreal RL 00:52 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 00:44 GMT October 1, 2007
I have aposition of 16M USD avg to 1.11 USD/CAD
Last friday I covered my margin by borrowing the last amt available and bought 16M CAD or sold USD Is this not hedging? As you stated I do not know all the terminology. A friend of mine told me to do this in order to stop the losses from continuing. And that now what I had to do was try and get the bottom of the USD/CAD and sell the 2nd position and follow back up or lose everything.
Thats about the best I can explain it. This is all through a broker.

Syd .. 00:47 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
PETER Costello has again fumbled when fielding a question about the election - and he may have let the date of polling day out of the bag.

For the second time in less than two weeks, the Treasurer made mention of an election date, this time suggesting Australia could be going to the polls on November 24.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22510729-5001021,00.html

Montreal RL 00:46 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Correction

Lahore FM 00:30 GMT October 1, 2007
Morristown GG 23:55 GMT September 30, 2007
Thank u GG
Lahore FM if I am understanding GG there will be a time that I should sell the hedge at the low. (I am really ignorant about all of this) When do you think this can happen? And cud u advise me when it looks possible

Thank you

Morristown GG 00:44 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
RL, Your question about selling the Hedge at the low indicates that you don't understand a lot of the terms. Tell us a little summary of how you got started, how long, and how you are trading - yourself or through a broker? What have they been tellinig you?

saopaulo cg 00:39 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
thank to you FM. I didnt knew about that archive. Thanks again.

Montreal RL 00:38 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 23:55 GMT September 30, 2007
Thank u GG
Lahore if I am understanding GG there will be a time that I should sell the hedge at the low. (I am really ignorant about all of this) When do you think this can happen? And cud u advise me when it looks possible

Thank you

Syd .. 00:38 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Sentiment on EUR/USD bullish, no doubt pair will continue to rise in mid-term, but pair may dip this week on profit-taking, says senior sales dealer at major European bank. "As the Group of Seven meeting in Washington is approaching, jawboning comments from European high officials are well expected, and players will likely pocket quick gains on these," he says. Says focus will be on ECB Trichet press conference after rate decision meeting Thursday; if central banker doesn't comment on recent high EUR levels, then EUR/USD has chance to spike.

Lahore FM 00:30 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 00:26 GMT October 1, 2007
you missed out on Archive button which is a handy tool.good luck anyway!

out for now.

saopaulo cg 00:26 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 22:18 GMT September 30, 2007
RFs analysis on USDJPY is excellent.

FM,
i didnt read the analysis, i read that post of 22.18 from NYAM that i coppied above. Thats why i asked to repost it.

BUD PS 00:26 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
scurti philadelphia
--------
if things work as expected, I might actually make it to break even since I started trading ;-)

scurti philadelphia 00:18 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
New to this board and new to currency speculation...holding cash positions but not trading yet...very impressed with the posts I have been reading...a good group....may you all be successful...especially our poor friend who is on his knees...we've all been on our asses once in a while....no pain no gain right? Good luck to all.

Lahore FM 00:16 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 23:55 GMT September 30, 2007
GG,tankan is up but i still feel usdjpy goes up but u never know.still original analysis looking for selling of jpy against usd and eur,gbp,aud,cad,nzd and the rest.see you all later!

Syd .. 00:03 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
JPY Net Short Positions Down; Less Carry Trade


2357 GMT [Dow Jones] IMM commitment of traders report shows net JPY short non-commercial positions vs USD fell to 2,449 contracts in week to September 25 vs 21,067 contracts in week earlier; highlights a diminishing preference for carry trade amid uncertainty in global economic outlook; positions may turn net long ahead if upcoming U.S. data weak, increasing chance of a U.S. slowdown

Alaska Moon 00:02 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
Montreal RL 23:44 GMT September 30, 2007
=======
RL...Send an email to [email protected]. Write your message to Mtl JP explaining your situation. Ask Jay to please forward your message to Mtl JP.

I wish you good luck !!!
Moon

Lahore FM 00:01 GMT October 1, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 23:56 GMT September 30, 2007
cg,how do you know his analysis is excellent if you have not read it?

also if you see above the first post there is a button which reads "Archive".click it and find the releveant post.it is unfair to bother posters here who were kind enough to share the views.