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Forex Forum Archive for 10/03/2007

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Rio Tinto Analistafx 23:44 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki JJ 23:41 GMT
Thanks!

Helsinki JJ 23:41 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
The movement of Euro from here will be dictated by tomorrow's rate decision. at the moment support at just bellow 1.4060 and resistance at 1.4150.

Rio Tinto Analistafx 23:27 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Fm its possible to share you view for eur/usd this week?
Thanks!
GT & GL

Gen dk 23:20 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 22:52 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN,

I just saw the post in the HELP FORUM by Gooner on gbp/jpy ma, I do see his point on 210 and 191 but was a bit confused on the lines below, could you please explain them. thanks


"But the upside of this monthly golden cross is just enormous, so it needs to be patient and wait for a big pullback to the 50 MA to start getting ready to act."

nj jf 22:09 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
fire away

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:59 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
nj jf //

hello sir - may I ask you some trading related things on the Help forum?

GVI john 21:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in red navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Van jv 21:32 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Davao City Vinzriel 16:47 GMT October 3, 2007

Never heard about globalamerika.us ---sounds like some internet outfit ////promise that nvestment will earn 6% daily up to 90 days sounds as a nonsense---would get all $ out to a solid bank ,imo
there are experts here to give advice

Lahore FM 21:16 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
BUD PS 21:13 GMT October 3, 2007
nothing really.keeping it a while.the perspective is medium term.might take a week or two.

BUD PS 21:13 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
FM (Lahore), any comments on your long gold position?

Lahore FM 20:51 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 08:33 GMT October 2, 2007
Lahore FM 07:01 GMT October 2, 2007
long nzdusd 0.7560,stops rigid at 10.
--
closed half at 0.7610 for 50 pips.
stops moved higher to 0.7540 for 1/2 remiander.
==
stopped at 07540 for remainder for +30 pips in all.

London NYAM 20:34 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Thanks BAY me too! Still feels/look okay to me.

USA BAY 20:27 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Thanks, but there are a lot of news saying ECB will cut rates. If it continues to slide maybe a big maybe, we could see 1.4050 and 1.4020. Good luck on your trade, I really hope it works out for you. Cheers

Alaska Moon 20:27 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Montreal RL 03:20 GMT October 1, 2007
Morristown GG 03:10 GMT October 1, 2007
Sorry to waste your time GG but I have 16Million long USD avg 1.11USD/Cad At 165K per 100 pips
and now 16M @.9928 short USD to hedge.
If that is wasting your time I apologize.
I have given 1.6 million on margin to cover everything and have mortgqged everything I have.
I thank JP for all his advice so far. Sorry I am just extremely nervous.
============
I hope RL will let us know how his mess comes out...
Good Luck, RL !!
Moon

St. Annaland Bob 20:24 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Scarborough TG 20:11 GMT October 3, 2007

2007:
1.2xx 1.3xx 1.4xx (close @ 1.3xx or 1.4xx)

2008:
[1] 1.1xx 1.2xx 1.3xx
[2] 1.2xx 1.3xx 1.4xx
[3] 1.3xx 1.4xx 1.5xx
[4] 1.4xx 1.5xx 1.6xx

London NYAM 20:23 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Bay// nice call on the 1.4080 support so far.
Think we will dip below before going back up. I added some at 1.4089. stop for most just under 1.4060.
Purk, who is Dick?

Scarborough TG 20:11 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the the Chinese are buying a bunch US dollar call options, with that new government fund they started this week. The US dollar is the most undervalued asset around.

Hong Kong Ahe 20:06 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:45 GMT - I think AUDJPY is seeing top around 103.60 (103.82 today, nearly 3rd attempt to test this level as Yenophobies trying to break it through but failed due to AUDUSD and Gold was not following the same pace). Twin indicators has shown in Daily chart the turning signal while the first attempt to hit 103.60 on Monday. Thus, a coming quick correction will be seen (as said on Monday, this weekend is important and G7 meeting is closer and closer). Today Yenophobies tried to test Central banks tolerance limit and looking for their intervention. No intervention and it was the excuse to push it to higher level but once close to 103.60 (103.80 false break), they are scared too by other movements of the other big boys too in squaring profit. Then they were become victims, like Purk said. GLGT.

Makassar Alimin 19:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
euro looks heavy, could be heading to 1.3980/90

denver jake 19:53 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
BUD PS 19:25 GMT October 3, 2007

Sure I'll comment my 2 pence.

Good r/r fading this weakness (I hate myself for doing this. lol)
I went long at 7528. there are a couple of technical levels I've got my eye on between here and the big fig. stops below it.

USA BAY 19:45 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe,
Hi Ahe
I am flat right now. Seem like there is no clear sign for most pairs so will wait till a clear signal emerges. Having said that this is what I see for nzd/jpy and aud/jpy.

The next level of resistance is the 7/31 high at 92.34 and then the 78.6% extension at 92.71

The rally for aud/jpy from 85.95 seems will exceed 107.70 and test resistance near 109.00 before reversal.


Could you share your view on these pairs. Thanks a lot.

The Netherlands Purk 19:43 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
oops i see the clog talk too much here, space for using space. I am off. I sold my first chicken project last week. Of course it was noit me who sold it, it was the us thing...

The Netherlands Purk 19:39 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
You are welcome Ahe and WT, i try to give what i can. Double U T, dont forget to take profit on the way. Cut portions into half or 1/4 or whatever. Take profit and be happy.
Aha, i see that Dick has found victims for his e/u thing.

Hong Kong WT 19:35 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Purk
you always give us some enlightenments.

Thank you!

I am on the same line with you on loonie.

Hong Kong Ahe 19:35 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:32 GMT - LOL, you are lovely. ;)

The Netherlands Purk 19:32 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Err thanks Ahe i guess, but i dont do charts, i am just pakying ranges and see to it that nothing is skipped. Saw the gaps in cable a few weeks back, saw them in bugger, and now saw them in e/u. I wait and wait for new highs, and than whammo.
Only 125 pips to go.

BUD PS 19:25 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
anybody willing to comment on kiwi's short? thx

Hong Kong Ahe 19:23 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Mtl RL 19:01 GMT - He said he saw a trading gap in EURUSD around 1.3975 (date around 19Sep - 20Sep 2007) in chart and has not yet filled. It was caused by up-surge of EURUSD broken the resistance. It implies EURUSD will have tendency to correct back to that level. So he was glad to put his arrow on the bow at higher level of EURUSD (1.42) or lower level of USDCAD (under 1.0000) to gain the greatest pips of profit. Purk is talking to those MIB boys as they are watching here. LOL

The Netherlands Purk 19:15 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Mtl RL 19:01 GMT October 3, 2007

Are you the same RL that gave his money to someone else to trade or listen to somebody else for that matter?
You have to start listening to your self from now on, you will be surprised how much YOU know...

The Netherlands Purk 19:13 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Mtl RL 19:01 GMT October 3, 2007

well rl, it is not trade language, it is clog language. I am saying that we are at the end of the day, and the MIB are looking for victims...

Makassar Alimin 19:02 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
going long eurjpy 164.60, stop 163.96

Mtl RL 19:01 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 18:50 GMT October 3, 2007
Hi Purk,

I don't understand the trade language weel enough could you tell me what you mean.
I would really appreciate it.
Thank you

The Netherlands Purk 18:53 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay: i really dont know, as we are near the end of the day. I just said that i expect an upmove, but if Dick is reading this he will spread joy with a 20 pip downtick.
13975 is my first target because i think there is a gap there.

The Netherlands Purk 18:50 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 06:58 GMT October 1, 2007
All we need is a few more people with bigger egos saying that loonie and dollar will fall more, so please continue to talk the dollar into the gutter, than i will play the longs in dollar for the 13975 gaps, and a swing in loonie to 1.05.
Everybody can tell you this and this, but dont follow, just carry out your own plan. If i see this RL guy, he better put it on a nice interest account, and he still would be smiling. So carry on please, and the not followers and believers will gain...


I thank all those people who longed and longed again after my post, it was 183 pips ago.
Also thank ZEUS for his rally thing. I took notice of that and oh well can nit post what i did not post can i.
But thanks ZEUS, you must be driving that bl. Toyota now, of all cars and he buys a Toyota.
LOONIE is on its way to VIOLENT upticks...

USA BAY 18:48 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk,

Hi Purk, any target for your eur/usd downtick, thanks

The Netherlands Purk 18:42 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Well NY, those who feel spoken to, I hail always.
If you look at the signs of the market the e/u is ticking to the low now, normally that means going under 141 for now. But (t) upticks always have been more violent the last three years than the downticks, so expect one soon. Just keep an eye on the swissy, it smells the 118...

London NYAM 18:37 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
fm well its triggered now (added long from 1.4132)
Purk// i thought you were talking to me! yeah think euro here or under fig with stop under 1.4060 is good. just me though.

The Netherlands Purk 18:14 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Oh, btw i am always talking to myself for those who think who the f. is that clog talking to.
Today was a perfect day of rangetrading without any nice news. e/u and bugger where perfect examples at 1420000000 and 1650000000. I doubted the e/u, but not the bugger. Wont post what i took because had to do it earlier for that matter.
lows and high times keep on moving. Maybe it is time for a long in e/u, or maybe not.
enough babbling, action man.

The Netherlands Purk 18:01 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Oh well, it was a dollar day after all. Glad that the swissy was the indicator of it all.
Or was it a euro weakness day?
The only thing what matter is NOW. The 13975 still not reached in e/u, but that can be arranged.
Loonie will go to 1.01 sometimes...

madrid mm 17:51 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
It might help a few of the members .
FWIW
- Focus on the Process, Not on the Profit.

Many new traders always wonder how they can make more profit from their trading (assuming they're already making money). They attempt to set goals like trying to grab a specific numbers of pips per day or month.......

Click here

remember - Think outside the box 8-) CU tom.

USA BAY 17:36 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Thanks a lot for the input. You are right, GBPJPY likely to tests the 61.8% of (251.10-219.30) at 238.95, the other 78.6% at 244.29 is quite unlikely but in case the beast overshoots.

Lahore FM 17:34 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
ohh Nyam,it was t/p!yes i noticed you selling eurusd.i think i did not give enough import to a usdchf long signal.rising usdjpy and usdchf together did a good job of a slide for eurusd.

Lahore FM 17:32 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 17:29 GMT October 3, 2007
good for you Nyam,it does matter who one has money with.

London NYAM 17:29 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:15.// Yeah but my buy order at 1.4110 didnt get filled go figure. Great G/J trade.

Bay//Yes I think its quite possible U/J will test 118.00 before coming down as long as it can break 117.20 and Fib a 117.80
I dont favour this scenario. I think we stall and dollar weakness will spread into U/J just less so.

No I dont believe G/J will get that far. I think it won't get over 239 becasue of the Yen portion.

Lahore FM 17:20 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 17:19 GMT October 3, 2007
lolzzz..yeah and the patient shall survive.gtgl!

USA BAY 17:19 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Do you see usd/jpy testing the 118.xx area before reversal and the gbp/jpy testing 244.xx before a decline below 219.xx. tia

St. Annaland Bob 17:19 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM

you remind me the doctor who says "I have bad news and good news for you, which one you want first?" ... top trades to you

Lahore FM 17:17 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:21 GMT September 25, 2007
Lahore FM 00:56 GMT September 25, 2007
added gbpjpy long 230.92,stops later.
--
closed half at 231.27 for 36 pips.stops at 230.40 for the rest,rigid.
==
closed remainder at 237.20 now for +628 pips.

Lahore FM 17:15 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
interesting day,long eurusd stopped at 1.4110 for minus 37.

London NYAM 16:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Bottom end of that wave 4 range is 1.3370. At least thats my wave 4. Also we will have to wait to see how high we go. Plenty of time for that perhaps into December.
GLGT

USA BAY 16:48 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
with should be will

Davao City Vinzriel 16:47 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Good Day!

Im Marvin Avelino from Davao,Philippines and I am investor of www.globalamerika.us here in the philippines.I joined this forum because I would like to know if the globalamerika.us here in the philippines are thesame with global america in the U.S.Because I would like to share my problems regarding this compnay that I've join.I dont know if CEO Geoff Whittaker is also the CEO of GAF in the U.S. reagarding my problem in globalamerika,I invest almost $20,000usd because the person and his downlines started globalamerika here in the philippines promise me that my investment will earn 6% daily up to 90 days but what happen is that my investment earned an interest in my account in the website but when i tried to widraw using the interest widrawal It was being rejected by the local bank here in the philippines so inshort Ididnt get any single cents in my investment in globalamerika. I feel very disappointed on what happen because the money that I used in globalamerika is a hard earned money and a part of it only barrowed to my friends. Please I have help me to recorvermy money and give me some advise.The person who started globalamerika here in the philippines is Jerry Estrella please let me know if this guy is realy connected with global america in the U.S.If Mr. Jeoff Whitttaker is realy a person started this company all over the world through online,please return back my money I need it very badly.Actually I have almost $40,000usd in my account in globalamerika and I'm very if even half of it canbe widrawn or retun to me..Thanks and God Bless!

USA BAY 16:46 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Yes, agree with you there, eur/usd is a wave 3 correction, doubt the decline with continue to 5 waves, so we can see a new high in euro but I think that after this new high we may see 1.38 area previous 4th wave and the 61.8% retracement level at 1.37 area. Thanks. gt/gl

London NYAM 16:45 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:05 GMT October 3, 2007
FWIW. Bought dollar against Eur and CAD 1.4183 and .9953
TOook the Cad out at .9973

tor Pumpkin 16:42 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
0.9852
0.9576
0.9450
the first is an RSI reversal target and they've been working brilliantly the 2 years. the second is psyhchological, the last is channel bottom.

London NYAM 16:30 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 16:17// Agree with your figs on Euro although i suspect 1.4190 will hold if we havent hit bottom here at the 23.6 retrace already.
CAD
.9815-35
0.9757
0.9396
0.9150

NYC NYC 3 16:20 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
gspan is a great guy and did good work,
but his forecasting record ? isa disaster going back to 1974 at keast.
1974 Whip Inflation Now- when the economy was already in a the worst deflation since the 30s.

or Irrational exub? nasdaq in 96? it went up 7 FOLD teh next 3 years!
etc

USA BAY 16:17 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Thanks for the reply.

EURUSD: With low at 1.4120, next downside target is around 1.4080; from there we can see return to 1.4150/1.4200 as correction so 1.4080-1.4180 is short term hedge area.

Do you have any targets for the usd/cad lower levels before we see it moving up. Thanks a lot

London NYAM 16:09 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 15:50// Hi
I could count it that Aussie has already topped I could also count it that Eur has topped but that would be tougher. Finding the Aussie tough right now so not trading it. CAD looks like it needs to try lower and I agree it is in a wave 4 like Euro of a multi-period wave five of several degrees higher (i count 3 degrees) but may already be ready for a final run. I would have thought the Fridays numbers or Mondays tendancy for revering Fridays moves would have been the day for the start of the last leg of Dollar weakness.
Currently seems as though we are in a sharp wave 4 on Eur in the final phases of the wave c.

London NYAM 15:59 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
small long Eurusd at 1.4132. Still a chance of extending but we will see. 1.4090 (just under is my stop) adding if we extnd to 1.4110 should be the final leg or at least the lower end of the range. IMO

USA BAY 15:50 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Looks like usdcad is close to end of it’s down move, This scenario is in audusd too , in weekly view audusd is playing wave 4 and most probably will return to 0.7800 level but upside 0.9250 target is not unlikely. Pls comment. tia

melbourne DC 15:38 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
MNI analysis ..
BoE comments data suggests Nov rate cut possible; Oct cut too early, will wait for Nov f/c.

.. tomorrow should be nice data play . maybe get early christmas present from BoE :))

GVI Forex Blog 15:33 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/YEN Chart Points

London NYAM 15:33 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:05 GMT October 3, 2007
FWIW. Bought dollar against Eur and CAD 1.4183 and .9953
took profit at 1.4143 nice 5 wave completetion. Now if wait to see if we get an extension or a reversal sign.
Expecting more from CAD though.

melbourne DC 15:25 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
.. Having $y 4hr upchannel ceilling at 116.75 (fxtrek) ..

melbourne DC 15:15 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
03 Oct 2007 23:58 AUSEST
*DJ Greenspan: The Worst Is Over In U.S. Subprime Crisis
*DJ Greenspan: U.S. Econ Growth Likely To "Bottom Out" In 08
*DJ Greenspan: Euro Is Increasingly An International Currency

DJ Greenspan: The Worst Of the US Subprime Crisis Is Over04 oct 2007 00:45 ausest
LISBON (Dow Jones)--The meltdown of the U.S. subprime lending market that has triggered a global credit squeeze is largely over, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday. The worst is over," he said at a meeting with local businessmen.

noting also a few recent deals done .



Bdg Betrand 15:13 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
hi...all...

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:04 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
it is time for everyone to get over the "Greenspan said" mania and come to the final understanding: the man is now out there "talking his book", literally! An opportunity for him to make a statement to the media makes his current (extremely boring) book that much more visible and potentially saleable.

I've read it and aside for some interesting glimpses into his early personal life, the remainder is a gloss over of his years as Fed Chmn and his opinion on the future as he projects it in 2030.

denver jake 15:00 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
The previously weakest currency ($$$) finally has broken out vs the yen and the yen is back to being "the punching bag" (Thx Mr. Zeus for such an accurate term) it was before this unwind.

Selling the yen vs everything on rallies is my simple yet effective strategy for now.

BTW unloaded half my gpb/jpy at 237.70, no need for greed

melbourne DC 14:55 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
greenspan words as reported by DJ
"The euro is increasingly an international currency...these days we effectively have two currencies to store value in the world," Greenspan said, in reference to the euro and the dollar.

melbourne DC 14:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
EURO-DOLLAR: The euro being weighed by New York think tank report expressing concern on euro strength. Overnight lows penetrated, but Tuesday's lows near $1.4135-40 still intact.
(from MNI)

London NYAM 14:50 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
we have dropped through the 2-4 trend line support mentioned yesterday (or was it the day before). So this (what i believe to be a wave 3 (from september (ths low of 1.3552) should be complete and the wave four as suspected is in progress. So min target is 1.4100 the 23.6% retrace. But heres room for stop hunts underneath the figure.

London HC 14:42 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Looks like ISM PMI has given the usd a reprieve.

St. Pete Islander 14:22 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:39 GMT October 3, 2007
I might take the paradoxical view but that is not in violation of the forum rules. Why delete my views?

Zeus, I'm getting old (well over 60 and here since 2001). I'm told that with advanced years, I will find myself to be less patient with those who seem to lack the humility and grace that is commonly reflected by such as those posting on this fine board. But rather than indulging myself, I offer this quote from Wikipedia.org regarding your sometimes "paradoxical" views: "Common themes in paradoxes include direct or indirect self-reference, infinity, circular definitions, and confusion of levels of reasoning. Other paradoxes involve false statements or half-truths and the resulting biased assumptions." Cheers & gt

Stockholm za 14:21 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   

The similitude of this F forum is that fund & tech, option, pip raiders, swing, mid, long-term & position traders...paper & real, hobby & for a living... all keep rambeling together .with out talking to each other...
Views will always be in conflict with out identity.
Key... know who is talking to who...
Happy trading….

saopaulo cg 14:13 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
i did the same mistake that i usually do: i got "married" with my usdjpy short at 115.30 and defended that trade with many differents arguments. Finally, two minutes ago, we "divorced" at 116.40. Another lesson for me.

London NYAM 14:05 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
FWIW. Bought dollar against Eur and CAD 1.4183 and .9953
Partly a boredem play partly due to the fact i expect another leg down/up in this correction of dollar weakness prior to the numbers.

melbourne DC 14:04 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
we are still playing by the meastro's playbook n code words .. recession odds 1/3-1/2. .. when he tells us the odds is back to 1/3 , we can buy the usd.

Lahore FM 14:04 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:08 GMT October 3, 2007
nice job on gbpjpy dip.we can now proceed smoothly i guess.
--
market working on it smoothly.more of the same can be expected.

HK [email protected] 13:55 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Why Euro may go to 1.47 and more. Except the computations I offered in 2004 lets look on the following (and if you saw it done before by someone else forgive me):

Between the end of Feb 2006 up to 28Sep 2007 the euro has formed a bearish wedge on the chart which was proven on that unlucky day(28Sep) not to meet
the bearish expectations.

If you will compute the target of this violated bearish wedge turning bullish based on that breakout day I get a target of 1.5117.

Well it will not happen overnight, but this explains at least why 1.47 is still on the menu.

Let us see if all the Cb's can push back the price action into the wedge (price currently below 1.4000 to turn my computation null and void).

But when Bernake will see that kind of Estimation he will say WOW Let's print more money so likely it will come to be true. LOL

Maybe others would like to draw that wedge on other limits so some different targets may result.


London Gooner 13:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Obviously the Oz think they'll win the Rugby WCUP again.
Quite bullish :)

UK Alex 13:51 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
It is a cycle of diminishing returns though, because of the ongoing structural issues.

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 13:02 / I think Zimbabwean economy is counted in the trillions now as well...

Global-View 13:45 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, we told you it was inadvertent.

FW CS 13:44 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
O mighty Zeus
Maybe your words are too much for our mere mortal ears. I just saw them too.

short term $ bottom possibly but I don't think cyclical reversal. We might see a move to flush out the weak $ shorts though. Maybe another liquidation type move or flight to quality (like from another Mideast war)

USA Zeus 13:39 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
I might take the paradoxical view but that is not in violation of the forum rules. Why delete my views?

Melbourne DC 13:35 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:30 GMT October 3, 2007
hey ..your supercycle reversal just vanished??

Melbourne DC 13:34 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:30 GMT October 3, 2007
You mean your eurusd shorts are l/t not s/t ?

USA Zeus 13:24 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Ever notice how the crowd reacts to price? If the market has moved up the crowd here seems to look towards the sky. After price moves down they expect it to continue south. Few take contrarian opinions and seem to be correct more often for some strange reason.

Smiles everyone- smiles!

Global-View 13:24 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
anmart fx - please use a location rather than a name when you post. TIA

anmart fx Sf 13:20 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF - resistance at 1.1740 for 1.1680

Lahore FM 13:12 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:09 GMT October 3, 2007
magic!!!

Gen dk 13:11 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 13:09 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
While Sarkozy, Prodi , Junckers and co are complaining about a too strong Euro our japanese friends bougth USDJPY up from 111.70 to 116.50 . Lol. Deeds are more important than words .

Lahore FM 13:09 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 11:13 GMT October 3, 2007
the same falir can't possibly come from me thanx to the wonder of individulaity!hope Par joins us soon.

USA Zeus 13:02 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
These are my opinions-
I do believe that we are now approaching the USD cycle points of reversal. The USD weakness has not been structural but cyclical. Housing is bottoming out economic forces are strong.

These are the facts-
The doom and gloom propaganda is at full strength.
US economy is Trillions stronger than the any other.
Regardless of de-pegging and diversification etc the USD is still the 2/3 majority of reserves and the most sought after currency.

Summary-
Building long term USD's is the way to go against Yen, GBP and EUR among others.

And oh yeah- EUR/USD 1.2777('s) is coming.

Happy Day!


Global-View 11:41 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Our programmers are working on the server issue causing the error message you are intermittently seeing. It should be cleared up shortly.

London Gooner 11:30 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Zurich PP 11:23 GMT October 3, 2007
-
Gold to $1000. Thanks.

UK Alex 11:27 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Dennis// Yes, where is the old raconteur? I do miss his joie de vivre.

Zurich PP 11:23 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
The Khorramshar News Agency, which is published by the ethnic Arab underground of Iran oil-rich Khuzestan, has reported that the entire
staff of Russian nuclear engineers and experts employed in building at a nuclear reactor at Bushehr had abruptly left and flown back to Russia..DEBKA file have obtained no corroboration of its report from any other source..... basically all suggesting that the Russians are running or been ''told'' to evacuate because it has learned that a US or Israeli attack is imminent on the Bushehr plant and or Moscow has learned that an Iranian pre-emptive attack is imminent against American targets in Iraq and the Persian Gulf and/or Israel


Bon Air VA Dennis 11:13 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:00 GMT

it just doesn't have the same "flair" coming fm you FM, no offense meant tho' :)

Lahore FM 11:00 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 10:57 GMT October 3, 2007
par did not assign his job to me but i am doing it with the same spirit as far as usdjpy is concerned.i myself though missing his satire re european and us economies and officials everywhere.

Bon Air VA Dennis 10:57 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Has anyone heard from PAR lately? Did the MIB or Kampo Police abducted him? Has he returned to the mothership?

Doesn't seem the same here without him.

The Netherlands Purk 10:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Well the 16455 is passe now but bugger wants to continue his journey. I happen to know that a lot of signalproviders shorted the thing already between 157 and 163 so i guess their stops are not hit yet...
loonie 9911, keep an eye on that one.

London Gooner 10:50 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:41 GMT October 3, 2007
-
Welcome. Monthly MAs take time to cross. Now they have all crossed very clearly. Sudden large drop should be to find long term buyers. Targets back in the 1980s

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:41 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Gooner //
hi there - was looking for the answer for some months now.. tnx for the note - will post some additional q's if you don't mind! GL & GT!!

London Gooner 10:39 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn
-
Left a not in Help Forum for you.

Syd .. 10:22 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Dlr Struggling For Direction In Nervous Trade

Unilateral ECB intervention is generally seen as unlikely, but it can't be ruled out, particularly as the euro is overvalued now to the same degree as it was undervalued the last time the ECB intervened unilaterally, back in November 2000.

"Does this mean there is a risk of imminent ECB intervention to weaken the currency?" asked Mitul Kotecha, chief currency strategist at Calyon in London.

"We doubt it is imminent, but it may not be that far off," he added.

Sterling slipped after the session's data highlight, which was a weaker than expected reading in the services Purchasing Managers Index.

The index dropped to 56.7 in September from 57.6 in August, against a forecast of 57.0. That was "not a dramatic plunge," noted Chiara Corsa, an economist at UniCredit in Milan. But, it was enough to push euro/sterling up to GBP0.6958 from around GBP0.6845 before the data. Sterling/dollar also dropped from around $2.0410 to a low of $2.0342.



Lahore FM 10:21 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Jerusalem ML 10:09 GMT October 3, 2007
ML dear,agree with usdjpy view for that's my original idea too.gold to stay bid i feel but you never know.good trades!

Jerusalem ML 10:09 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Hi Lahore & All

My bet on usd/jpy seems to convince me more and more that we are going to see a relatively stronger NFP # on friday.
My bet is to see USD/JPY above 117 by friday

Good luck ,

M
p.s. Gold to test 720 soon in my opinion

Gen dk 09:51 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 09:51 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
I dunno what comes next months, but this article tries to explain some very nicely. Interesting quotes from Roach mentioned, for what he was bit wrong in reading the whole, even if correct in the general view

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2316.html

Gen dk 09:48 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd .. 09:34 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Borrowers and banks hit as credit crisis takes toll of homeownersLast night, Josef Ackermann, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank, was under increasing pressure to reveal the scale of the writedowns at Germany’s biggest bank.

The bank is expected to take a hit of about €1.5 billion (£1 billion)
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2578147.ece

Gen dk 09:31 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 09:31 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
GMT
12:15 PM USD ADP Employment Change (SEP) previous 53K forecast 38K

GMT
14:00 PM USD ISM Non-Manufacturing (SEP) previous 54.6 forecast 55.8

GMT
21:00 PM USD ABC Consumer Confidence (OCT 1) previous -11

Syd .. 09:26 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Aleading pan-European business lobby said Wednesday that the euro had reached the "pain threshold for European companies" and urged the continent's politicians to press the U.S., Japan and China to reevaluate their currencies at the upcoming meeting of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations.

"Having crossed 1.40 against the U.S. dollar and appreciating against the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen, the euro exchange rate has attained a pain threshold for European companies," BusinessEurope President Ernest-Antoine Seilliere said in a letter dated Oct. 2 to Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of the Eurogroup.

The next G7 meeting in Washington Oct. 20-21 "will be a unique opportunity to raise these issues forcefully and proclaim that the euro cannot be the variable of adjustment to reduce the U.S. external deficit," Seilliere added.

The business lobby decried what it called "political interference" in the European Central Bank's monetary policy. But it said it expects the bank "to remain pragmatic as regards its interest rate policy." The risk of "further appreciation of the euro should naturally rank high on the ECB's list of concerns," the letter continued

GVI Jay 09:21 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
For thsoe seeing error messages today, we are working on correcting it and will be corrected asap.

Lahore FM 09:08 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
nice job on gbpjpy dip.we can now proceed smoothly i guess.

Mumbai NS 09:01 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd even FT has talked at length on this and for those who have not seen intervention before are advised to put stops as in nov 2000 euro had moved up 7-8 biggies in 5 minutes and no prices were available for those caught short ....time to exercise care from now on gl gt

Gen dk 09:01 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd .. 08:58 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD is off 20 ticks to around 1.4160 and the dollar rises' elsewhere following wire comments from Italian prime minister Prodi that he is worried about the euro's exchange rate and has spoken at length with Germany's Merkel about it. Prodi has now joined a growing list of European policy makers and politicians who are complaining about euro's strength and usually there is no smkoe without fire. The news should make Thursday's post-rate conference from Trichet interesting. EUR/USD now at 1.416

Syd .. 08:58 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Talk Of Large EUR/USD Stop Below 1.4130

Bon Air VA Dennis 08:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 08:45 GMT

if ECB waits on Tsy Sec Paulson they have a long wait coming

no gain for US from cheaper EUR -- remember JPN had to go it alone as well

melbourne DC 08:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
e$ s/t hr uptrend ~1.4160

melbourne DC 08:49 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
0827 GMT [Dow Jones] Latest talk doing the rounds of London forex desks is an ADP reading of +30K which is below the 80K market consensus. EUR/USD is a couple of ticks higher on the talk at 1.4183. (GST)

0842 GMT [Dow Jones] BNP Paribas says Australian banks use the money markets to fund 70% of their assets, making them very sensitive to fluctuations in liquidity conditions. So while retail sales data have pushed AUD higher, and AUD/USD may test 0.8960, BNPP advises anyone trading the currency on the long side to watch the money markets very carefully. AUD/USD at 0.8879. (KJM)

Gen dk 08:47 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd .. 08:45 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Don't rule out EUR intervention by the ECB, says Mitul Kotecha at Calyon. It would be risky and unlikely to find support from the US or Japan, which would probably make it ineffective, but EUR is now as overvalued as it was undervalued when the ECB last intervened unilaterally in Nov 2000. "We doubt it is imminent, but it may not be that far off," Kotecha says.

Como Perrie 08:44 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
fwiw my larger term usdjpy have been cutted to flat for the time being... even if see flows building up contrary there, from a technical standpoint I'll see next days how the market develops before anything.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a1jCGl37FEBQ&refer=asia

Syd .. 08:42 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
G7 USD Talk Could Affect AUD


0754 GMT [Dow Jones] The rates outlook is supporting AUD for now, but Calyon warns that if the G7 succeeds in talking up the USD, AUD will suffer. That's partly because it would ensure that "currency valuations would become more central to market thinking," the bank says. The toppy AUD would be vulnerable on that front. Also, it would be a reminder from policymakers that moves "cannot be without limit," says Calyon.

Lahore FM 08:40 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 08:30 GMT October 3, 2007
wholeheartedly agree!no issues really.

Syd .. 08:38 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
UniCredit has cut its UK GDP growth forecast for next year (to 1.9% from 2.5%) and cut its inflation forecast to 1.8% from 2%. In light of continuing problems in the financial markets, the bank says it doesn't rule out the chance of a UK rate cut this week. The bank expects a 25bp cut by the end of the year, possibly in November, and another cut early next year.

Mumbai NS 08:31 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
ok

Mumbai NS 08:30 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:16 GMT October 3, 2007

FM frd my sys was down while u posted this ......no frd infact u are quite gud when compared to many babblers here and who knows u culd be rite on this occassion also.....market is the best arbiter ......i have a diff view than yours but i have a stop in mind so why shuld i have the fear in posting it just because it is against the majority .....i don't subscribe to this school of thot......and no hard feelings mate either i stop out or u whichever way my best wishes with u gl gt

Gen dk 08:21 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 08:15 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD: The market is basically vibrating around 0.8868 with an expected magnitude of 0.8725 - 0.9010 for the time being.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:14 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
0812 GMT [Dow Jones] Concerns over the market's heavy short-dollar positioning are building. JP Morgan says its flows analysis indicates USD shorts are 3.6 times the one-year average. If payrolls rebound on Friday, the jump away from these positions could be swift. This is "creating investor unease," the bank says. EUR/USD at 1.4180.

-------------------
0812 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD Daily RSI studies have started to break down and risk has increased that the accelerated uptrend line which lies at 1.4145 will be eroded, opening risk toward 1.40-1.3925, says Commerzbank's Karen Jones. However, this is not the favored scenario and she favors longs on dips to 1.4145 with tight stops, covering on rallies to 1.4405. Now trading at 1.4181, any break above 1.4210 will signal a return to the recent 1.4280 high is underway.

ankara kontpo 08:11 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd sell

Jkt Rick 08:10 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Euro market rate 1.4176

Move 1: The Euro will move to 1.4329 but its current consolidation might take it as low as 1.4109/1.4075

Move 2: After movement to 1.4329, It will fall to the low 1.40

Move 3: Euro will once again head over 1.4329

Move 4: will be forecasted after moves 1 to 3 materialize.


St. Annaland Bob 08:10 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   

Belgium has no government almost for four months, talks about dividing the country getting into serious phase...so, why one would pay attention to what Belgian official says?

Maribor 07:59 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
NZD last days in sell on blips mode...similar to GBPJPY at 251...

Gen dk 07:58 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

TEHRAN 07:54 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore please help me

Lahore FM 07:53 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
TEHRAN 07:47 GMT October 3, 2007
guess you never noticed.you can simply write to

[email protected]

gtgl!

Gen dk 07:50 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

TEHRAN 07:47 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:28 GMT October 3, 2007
send an e-mail to Jay using contact us button . HOW?

Lahore FM 07:36 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 07:33 GMT October 3, 2007
yes,incidentally right!market is the real arbiter for direction though.

saopaulo cg 07:33 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
FM,
you were right again about usdjpy breaking. Congratulations !!

Lahore FM 07:28 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
TEHRAN 07:25 GMT October 3, 2007
Tehran,no one is allowed to post e-mails on the forum.if you need my contact,send an e-mail to Jay using contact us button.Jay is the moderator and properitor for the forum.only he can forward your contact to me.gtgl!

Lahore FM 07:26 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:19 GMT October 3, 2007
agree chf to suffer some like jpy.eurchf and gbpchf spiral higher.been doing so last two days.

TEHRAN 07:25 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
hello Lahore
whats your mail?

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:19 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
FM - usdchf like usdjpy see no reason to be sold as the stox just keep going - so it is a matter of timing - and given the market performance it is more relevant to think 120 and 1.19/20 first then 110 and 1.1...
but at the end who am I to tell all this ..lol..

Lahore FM 07:16 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 07:10 GMT October 3, 2007
NS dear,am quite prone to misconceptions.can be wrong as well.no issues with it.good trades as ever!

Mumbai NS 07:10 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
All the best mate gud luck but i have my eyes on 110.25 thereafter 108.5 gl gt

Lahore FM 07:07 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
116.50 and 80 are in sight.from there to 120.

Mumbai NS 07:02 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
FM indeed gud upticks to utilize gl gt

Lahore FM 06:58 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
nice uptick on usdjpy and jpy crosses to start it rolling.

Mumbai NS 06:47 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Kapri/

I am not touching the yen cross today because of some superstitious reasons hehehhehe but i feel if u see 164.6 areas it is a gud sell gl gt

Japan AK 06:42 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys, Is it true that some Kiwi banks are in squeeze and RBNZ might be forced to cut the rate in future which might push AUD/NZD beyond 1.25?

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:39 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
NS //
actually - yesterday was an ugly rangy day... waiting for breakouts that don't materialize..
so I guess now it's choppy range play - a Search and Destroy campaign for the big players around..

Mumbai NS 06:36 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 06:26 GMT October 3, 2007
Strange mam .....but the downward slope points to low 163's than high 164ish gud luck gl gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:26 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
tick tick to high 164...

The Netherlands Purk 06:04 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
hmmm swissy can be the leading indicator again, not sure there. I see the appetite there on the loonie to march at new high, only below 9911 can spoil that. when we pass 10045 we can go to err 10087. Reminds me of someone.
See the Toyota man going to his record high of posting....
Bugger: some rangeexpansion expected... 16360-16455. Watch the tick tick to the low of high thing, thats the indicator...

madrid mm 06:01 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
* RBA keeps Cash Rate unchanged at 6.50% as widely expected.

* Aust August Retail sales rise of +0.7% in line with 4CAST expectation. August trade deficit widens to AUD1.614b.

* Aust Treasurer Peter Costello says there is a lot of confidence in the economy, continuing to grow and it is pleasing that inflation is still contained. Australian banks are in good condition - BBG.

* FT: Europe urges tough line on dollar: Eurozone policymakers will urge the US and other countries at the next G7 meeting to take a strong stance against exchange rate volatility in an effort to halt the dollar's decline against the euro, EU officials said on Tuesday. Finance ministers of the 13-member eurozone plan to forge a common position in Luxembourg next Monday.

* UK Telegraph: The credit squeeze in Europe tightened further as the interest rate at which banks are prepared to lend to each other for a 3-month period hit a six-year high of 4.79% yest, its highest level since May 2001 and a big premium to the ECB's base rate of 4%. Demand for loans in Europe has soared as cash-strapped UK banks with European operations have chosen to tap the cheaper, and more anonymous, European market for short-term funds.

* BoE FT: Multinationals drive US rally on weak dollar: Multinationals have emerged as the main drivers of the current US stock market rally as investors move to capitalise on the weak dollar by buying into companies with large overseas earnings.

* FT: Hopes that Northern Rock could be rescued rose when it emerged that JC Flowers, the private equity group, had secured about GBP15bn of funding which could be used for a takeover.

* Wednesday "belongs" to the "jumping" Aussie even as RBA left rates unchanged as widely expected at 6.50% today.

* AUD hopped to day highs of 0.8916 from 0.8855-60 on the strong Aust retail sales of +0.7%m/m, right on dot as Burchell, our Sydney colleague has 4CASTed, despite the wider trade gap of AUD1.61bln.

Focus on the 18-year highs of 0.8950 again, on US hedge funds, real money, big Aust banks buying. The huge funds/ Swiss, US persistent sellers from 0.8950 through 0.8850 yest (further weighed by the >$20 dive in Solid Gold from $747 to $724) in both AUD/USD, AUD/JPY could be looking to scoop back some AUD, again.

AUD/JPY rallied to 103.15 from 102.30, just off yest's 2-m highs 103.60., AUD/NZD to 1.1690-00 fm 1.1645.

NZD recovered after coming under huge sales in NZD/JPY from 88.20 to 87.30 in late NY on talks of Japanese USD/JPY, NZD/JPY sales - said to be linked to Uridashi redemption, tho there are fresh Uridashi today, EBRD's NZD522m.

EUR rose to 1.4180 highs on US funds, Swiss buying from 1.4150, helped by AUD rally, but EUR cautious of ECB FX action.

Some focus on Qatar PM interview in CNBC saying Qatar has cut its USD exposure in its sovereign funds of $50bln by >50% to 40%. EUR offers 1.42 still, talks East Euroepans, Russians bids 1.4130-40, stops blw 1.41.

GBP at 2.0425-30, nervous over any BoE surprises or pressure on BoE to cut rates and UK clearers selling GBP, buying EUR/GBP to repay ECB loans. USD/JPY Japanese exporters offers 116, but Cross/JPY remains in demand, bids 115.20, still buying on dips.

Nikkei +119.90pts or 0.70% at 17,166.68. JGBs steady, with 10-yr JGB yield +0.005% at 1.690%

Crude Oil back above $80 after NY falls, now $80.30.

madrid mm 05:39 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
GM FX jedi !!!!
8-)

bbsapul 05:23 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
hi fm,
may i have your view on gbp/jpy? thanks.

Lahore FM 04:51 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:11 GMT September 25, 2007
Lahore FM 12:42 GMT September 21, 2007
long audcad 0.8667,stops at 10.target 0.8850.
--
closed 1/3rd at 0.8748 for 81 pips.rest later.stops to 0.8640 rigid now for 2/3rd remainder.
==
closed remainder at 0.8854,just above target, for +187 pips in all.

par 04:25 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
thank you Lahore

Lahore FM 03:49 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
par 00:43 GMT October 3, 2007
par,it was just to make usdjpy as reference.within 40/50 pips meant that with spot 115.61 at the time of post it was plus minus 40 to 50 pips and next jpy sell cycle likely to start.even as i write rewind of carry is going on.gtgl!

bbsapul,no change in view there.

saopaulo cg 03:27 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Zeus,
ok my friend.

USA Zeus 03:21 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 03:05 GMT October 3, 2007

Cuidado with those jovems at that amateur site.

MISSISSAUGA AQ 03:18 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
houston.

wonderful idea. i am just coming and hoping to learn more from you guys.

saopaulo cg 03:05 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Yen Crosses Ready to Fall off of a Cliff. All the article is in dailyfx.com

London Neil 02:48 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 02:45 .. Are ya tellin me I have to buy a paper tomorrow! lol Dont work too hard ;>)

Syd .. 02:45 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
London Neil 02:13 GMT hi, no probs not online much today got stuff have to do

saopaulo cg 02:44 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
you are right RF !!! but many times we read personal agresions and it takes someone out of trading. Cheers !!

USA Zeus 02:42 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 01:30 GMT October 3, 2007
No overly macro view of the yen other than it is the punching bag.

USA Zeus 02:38 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
In public statements, homebuilders don't see tops nor bottoms. Their views are worthless- let alone loaded as mis-information.

USA Zeus 02:35 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 02:02 GMT October 3, 2007
We would like to believe that trading is an emotionless business but the truth is that trading is nothing but emotion.

God bless.

saopaulo cg 02:30 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
RF,
i just post the new and the article of Bank of America. I dont have any position in euros, please do not take it personal. I am the one who agreed with your post of the yen last weekend.

It is not in this case, but i see that after many posts you see personal agressions and it should not be the case. Just diferent point of views, nothing personal.

Springdale BDH 02:19 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 02:13
Just curious, what is your basis for your EUR/USD 1.4700 call? (btw, I am not saying I disagree)
Thanks,
BDH

London Neil 02:13 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Dont mean to step on your toes, Syd, just while im privvy to it I thought I would share it :)

JOBBING THE DOLLAR The September jobs report will play an important role in the Fed"s next rate decision in terms of signs of downside growth risks. A rebound in local public education hiring could see the headline payrolls rise over 100K after Aug's shock -4K drop. Outside of govt and perhaps factory hiring, job growth may not amount to much. Over the past six months, private employment has averaged about 100K but the broader household gauge is down -210K. Temp hiring keeps declining and tends to lead overall employment. Financial sector layoffs have been quite high in recent weeks, and that was not picked up in the August data. More layoff reports are seen given large bank loss write downs. We look for a fairly soft service sector gain ex-govt, as those job losses show up. Retail, up nicely in August, is apt retreat some. Construction should see another drop for the 3rd straight month as homebuilder keep warning of no bottom in sight yet. Factory hiring could gain after a sizeable (-46k) drop in Aug but not enough to offset much. Surprise job weakness again would underpin speculation for more Fed cuts.

HK [email protected] 02:13 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 00:38 GMT October 3, 2007

NOTHING WILL STOP THE EURO TO 1.4700, dollar low is not yet on the menu, just wait a little.

London Neil 02:05 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
QATAR INVESTMENT AUTHORITY's estimated $50bln fund has cut its dollar exposure from 99% to around 40% of its portfolio over the past two years, said PM Sheik Hamad. He said the QIA's portfolio now has about 40% invested in Euros, 20% in currencies including sterling. When asked whether the QIA would reduce its exposure to the US dollar further, PM Sheik Hamad replied not at the moment. However Sheik Hamad said the QIA wanted 40% of its assets in Asia. Such a large increase in allocation to Asian assets would have to come at the expense of something else.

HK [email protected] 02:02 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 01:02 GMT October 3, 2007

Trading currencies in an emotionless business, no place for elements which may bias your mind; Love, nationalism, greed, racism, religion or whatever involves feelings.

And God bless America for the time being!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Syd .. 01:52 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
London Neil 01:43 afternoon to you :-))

London Neil 01:43 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Theres my favourite news-hound! Morning Syd, or should I say good avo.

Syd .. 01:37 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Australian Aug Retail Sales +0.7% Vs +0.4% Consensus

denver jake 01:30 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
So Zeus,

Since you are going on the record. What about yen crosses?

USA Zeus 01:02 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
These are my opinions-
I do believe that we are now approaching the USD cycle points of reversal. The USD weakness has not been structural but cyclical. US economy is Trillions stronger than the others. Housing is bottoming out economic forces are strong.

These are the facts-
The doom and gloom propaganda is at full strength. Regardless of de-pegging and diversification etc the USD is still the 2/3 majority of reserves and the most sought after currency.

Summary-
Building long term USD's is the way to go against Yen, GBP and EUR among others.

And oh yeah- EUR/USD 1.2777('s) is coming.

Happy Day!

par 00:43 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 00:22 GMT October 3, 2007
it is likely that a fresh medium term jpy bear cycle starts from within 40/50 pips on usdjpy.

FM,

what do you mean by " within 40/50 bips" on usdjpy? thank you for your help.

saopaulo cg 00:38 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
Sell the Euro Versus the U.S. Dollar, Bank of America Advises

By Lydia Thew

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell the euro against the dollar on expectations job growth rebounded last month from the first drop in four years, allaying concern that a housing slump has weakened the labor market, Bank of America Corp. said.

The euro may fall to $1.3850 in the next few weeks, from $1.4157 per dollar at 2:49 p.m. in New York today, according to the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank. The 13-nation currency reached $1.4283 yesterday, the strongest since its inception in 1999.

Signs of U.S. economic strength may damp expectations for further interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, analysts at Bank of America wrote in a report today. The recommendation is meant for the next few weeks and the bank said the euro may retrace the declines later this month.

``The soft characterization of the labor market in the August report wasn't fully reflective of the real situation,'' said John Rothfield, a senior currency strategist in San Francisco at Bank of America. The call ``reflects momentum market positioning and a bet that expectations for aggressive Fed cuts will be partly unwound in the week ahead.''

The euro has climbed 7 percent against the dollar this year. The Fed cut its benchmark overnight rate a half-percentage point to 4.75 percent on Sept. 18 to support the economy amid a slump in housing. The rate reduction makes dollar-denominated deposits less attractive to international investors.

September Labor Report

U.S. employers probably added 98,000 non-farm workers in September following a drop of 4,000 in August, according to the median forecast of 88 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department is scheduled to release the data on Oct. 5.

The euro has fallen from its record high this week as European officials expressed concern over the pace of its advance, which can hurt the region's exports.

Euro-region officials are looking for ``a tough message'' on dollar weakness at the meeting in Washington of the Group of Seven nations starting Oct. 19, which may extend the euro's retreat, according to Bank of America. G-7 nations include the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy and Canada.

Traders ``should get less long going into that meeting,'' said Rothfield. A long position is a bet a currency will gain.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lydia Thew in New York at [email protected] .

Last Updated: October 2, 2007 15:08 EDT

bbsapul 00:35 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
hi FM,
is there any changes for your view on gbp/usd?
Thank you.

Lahore FM 00:22 GMT October 3, 2007 Reply   
it is likely that a fresh medium term jpy bear cycle starts from within 40/50 pips on usdjpy.

 




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