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Forex Forum Archive for 10/04/2007

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Syd .. 23:47 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
)--U.K. wage growth eased further into the autumn, as salary increases in manufacturing and production declined, against a backdrop of modest gains in the public sector, data released Friday showed.

Incomes Data Services - an employment information provider - said median pay growth was 3.2% in the three months to the end of September, down from 3.3% in the period to late August. Prior to that month, salary inflation stayed at 3.5% for eight rolling three-month periods.

The figures should help reassure policysetters at the Bank of England that recently elevated inflation is not impacting wages.

"Pay settlement levels have not kept pace with the general trend of high inflation this year, and our latest analysis of settlement figures for the three-month periods to August and September show the median levels dipping slightly, although a significant number of deals in the private sector are at 4% or more," said Ken Mulkearn, spokesman for IDS.

Gen dk 23:29 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 23:13 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Alaska Moon 23:08 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
NY FM 22:55 GMT October 4, 2007
==========
Take your SPAM to some place else !!!!!

UK Alex 23:03 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Credit squeeze ‘will hit UK economy’

Lahore FM 23:02 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
NY FM 22:55 GMT October 4, 2007
NY,you cannot use this handle'FM'.it is already in use on this forum by me.also spam elsewhere!

Helsinki JJ 23:01 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:55 GMT October 4, 2007

if it turns and goes north i will follow it.
i dont marry my trades i just go with the flow

UK Alex 23:00 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 15:52 GMT October 4, 2007
Halifax sees house prices slowing
This was the survey I was referring to earlier. HBOS is the UK's biggest mortgage lender as you'll be aware. The third quarter was significantly less than Q1 & Q2. Also, prices fell by 0.6% last month.

"Overall, prices in the third quarter were 0.9% higher than in the previous quarter," said the Halifax's chief economist, Martin Ellis.

"This compares with increases of 2.3% in 2007 Q2 and 3.0% in 2007 Q1, marking a continuing steady downward trend in the rate of house price growth since the end of 2006."

USA BAY 22:55 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HELSINKI JJ,

Sorry but have a contradictory view on gbp/jpy, I think we will have a run to 61.8% 238.95 soon, the chart looks bullish, anyway good luck on that trade.

FW CS 22:53 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The only way the US can add jobs is to make them up. Straight from the BLS government website. They project new jobs from births of "new businesses" no basis in fact just a computer model. If you take out these phantom jobs added from this computer model last month the actual number would have been -120K

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

USA BAY 22:52 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Agree with you on USD/JPY, EW, it does look bullish to 118.xx and I think we will see a reversal at 118.xx.

And yes, all of us have been there at one point in time and being practical and positive thought that I will survive no matter what happens is what RL needs now. Got to love pursuit of happyness.

Lahore FM 22:36 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 22:30 GMT October 4, 2007
agree dear!

London NYAM 22:30 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Sorry to break the silence, but before bed; the strange thing is that USDJPY looks bullish to 118.xx while EURUSD and GBPUSD look bullish as well on a tchnical basis (all be it EW I admit) makes for very confusing maths. I guess the implication is that the usual active yen cross trades are potentially knocking against the USD weakness trades causing a smudge. the main thing is that dollar weakness theme doest seem over just yet so i agree with DS (Oh god forbid).

PS RL many here have been there, but you have the glory of taking this to an extreme. Pehaps this is your moment. Summon up your strength. You must visualize all your futures and accept all of them, or you will perish worthless in soul never mind your account. so don't go down blind and you will survive somehow. there are others always who have less than you, and you have more in experience now. gl and stay strong whatever the result. i know everyone here wants you to luck-out but that is not enough, its up to you.

Helsinki JJ 22:16 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Selling GBPJPY here at 237.35 stop 238.35 limit open
selling USDJPY here at 116.44 stop 117.44 limit open
selling EURJPY here at 164.58 stop 165.58 limit open

Helsinki JJ 21:41 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
i doubt that his case could stand in court against his broker since brokers state in their agreement that this is a risk business and the client might loss his investment. But if the if RL can prove that he was solicited into investing then he might come out a winner. a few years ago a client from UK sued the Then refco and was rewarded about $5m after losing $250k. his case was that an introducing broker from refco solicited the investor into believing that he could make millions with trading. RL in your position i would request you seek help from a lawyer.

nj jf 21:39 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
i know of a case where an investor lost 250 mio trading currencies i believe it was. he followed the advice of a large firm and sued them. he won in the end about half the amount arguing the firm employed a former fed official to advise him. so if you didnt get into this on your own and were following in house advice thats the avenue to go down. the trading side doesnt appear so attractive to try for you at this point.

Gold Coast 21:37 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
RL -- did you make the effort of looking at the suggestion I posted yesterday here below TO BEGIN INFORMING YOURSELF MEANINGFULLY ?

Gold Coast 09:29 GMT October 4, 2007
MTL RL 09:03 GMT October 4, 2007

There is a Technical view on USD/CAD on this page
(towards bottom of page) :

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/USDJPY_Tests_Top_of_Range__1191411941850.html

The ongoing view is updated daily early AM New York on the following page under Daily Reports - Daily - "Daily Technical" :

http://www.dailyfx.com/

Take care of yourself, G/L.

Lahore FM 21:35 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
totally agree with JJ and NYAM!

nj jf 21:32 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
rl.. noone here can help you at this point, your position is so distressed and so large given your available cash that any decision is likely to wipe whatever cash you have left. your better to reduce your position so you have some staying power to trade with. its also obvious from the way you ask questions you are way over your head in the currency market thats the only legal avenue to pursue with your broker.

Helsinki JJ 21:32 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

I couldnt put it beter my self.
we are all on some sort of educated guess work.
no one really knows what will happen untill it does.
so its always best to cut your losses and start all over or risk losing everything.

USA BAY 21:29 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

HEY Nyam, looks like your trade eur/usd is doing quite alright. Cheers.

Mtl RL 21:28 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 21:25 GMT October 4, 2007

Thanks

London NYAM 21:25 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
RL//The truth the absolute truth is no one knows! People only have educated and experienced guesses. You put your life on the line for a guess, now you must face it. Now be a man place your bet and face the consequences. Choose, you want to break even vs lose everything you want to go to jail or wait for your dreams. Whatever your choice is, calculate it in advance rather than ask random strangers with marginal (that is premeditated properly managed accounts) what to so. Do yourself a favour, and stop watching the price. It wont make a difference because you dont know what you are seeing. YOu have been duped. Call a laywer and hope he can save you or decide on your levels and what you are prepared to lose. If its already gone then you have nothing to lose and stop worrying. its over already. watch the opening 15 minutes of Gladiator. Its life there are winners and losers. know in advance the two resuts becuase you are there now and no one can save you.

Lahore FM 21:23 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Mtl RL 21:19 GMT October 4, 2007
RL,i am sorry to notice that you are still talking in terms of cadusd.there is a simple formula to convert futures prices into spot.guess mm or Zeus might help you with it on help forum.after you have the formula you can relate to spot prices of usdcad mentioned in the forum to your futures cadusd price.then you will not be confused nor the members here.hope you see what i mean.

Mtl RL 21:19 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
What do you mean .9600 is there a trend upward coming

Lahore FM 21:16 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Mtl RL 21:13 GMT October 4, 2007
RL.it is at a critical juncture.as said earlier 0.9960 holds the key.

Helsinki JJ 21:16 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Mtl RL 21:13 GMT October 4, 2007
It depends on what happens tomorrow.
it might print new lows so just be carefully with it

Mtl RL 21:13 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Where is USD/CAD going????????????????????????

Lahore FM 20:24 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
was looking at gold charts and improving bullish picture.

Lahore FM 20:23 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 20:22 GMT October 4, 2007
yes,keeping longs for 755/60.

FW CS 20:22 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:20 GMT October 4, 2007
You mentioned being long gold in the 720's nice call. You still long?

GVI john 20:20 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
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Lahore FM 20:20 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
the CB cloud has cleared but still nfp tomm.the technical picture again poised for gbp and contis to rise against usd.some nice levels were offered on eur and gbp 24 hours back.might be again some time before we see them again.

USA BAY 20:00 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
sorry guys for the long article

USA BAY 19:59 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
What Should Traders Watch For

Last month, seven indicators correctly forecasted a weak payrolls number. This month, four out of those seven including the ADP survey and the Challenger layoffs report signal that there will be a sharp improvement in payrolls. Despite the retracement in the US dollar today after the ECB and BoE interest rate decisions, the dollar is still stronger on the week because economic data does support positive payroll growth. The only question is will payroll growth be strong enough to meet the market’s lofty expectations. The current forecast is for companies to add 100k jobs. Of the 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the most optimistic forecast is by Bear Stearns who expects 175k jobs while the most pessimistic is National Bank Financial, who expects only 15k job growth. As you can see, no one expects two consecutive months of job losses. Given the strength of the NFP leading indicators, we also do not think that job growth was negative in September. If job growth is less 70k the US dollar will probably fall, but anything in excess of that should be dollar positive. The revision to the August number will also be extremely important and we would be surprised if there are no revisions. As usual, the revised number could easily exacerbate or negate the changes to the current month’s headline number.

Let’s take a look at what the market is expecting tomorrow:

What is the market expecting for September?

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls: 100k Forecast, -4k Previous
Unemployment Rate: 4.7% Forecast, 4.6% Previous
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -10k Forecast, -46k Previous
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% Forecast, 3.9% Previous
Average Weekly Hours: 33.8 Forecast, 33.8 Previous

The odds are tilted in favor of a stronger NFP number, but there are solid arguments supporting both stronger and weaker job growth:

Examining the Leading Indicators for Non-Farm Payrolls

Arguments for Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls Growth

• ADP Employment Indicates Increase of 58K in Private Payrolls
• Challenger Reports a 28.5% Decrease in Layoffs
• Employment Component of ISM Non-Manufacturing Rose to 3-Month High
• 4 Week Average of Jobless Claims Drop from 324k to 311k

There are many reasons why non-farm payrolls could be strong tomorrow. After dipping into contractionary territory for the first time since September 2003, the employment component of the ISM report jumped back into expansionary territory, signaling that the service sector added more jobs than it lost last month. The ADP employment survey also rebounded after hitting a 4 year low in August. The private sector is expected to contribute at least 58k jobs to payrolls. Even though jobless claims were weaker for the week ending September 29, the latest release is not a survey week which means that it does not impact on tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. The four week moving average of claims has dropped from 324k in August to 311k in September. Challenger Gray and Christmas also reported a 28.5 percent decrease in layoffs, negating last month’s 21.7 percent rise. All four of these reports accurately predicted a weak payrolls report last month. If the labor market does stabilize, we could see a wave of optimism sweep across the financial markets.

Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls Growth

• Hudson Employment Index Drops by 2.1 Points
• Monster.com Employment Index of Job Advertisements Did Not Change
• Help Wanted Ads Hit All-Time Low
• Consumer Confidence Hovers Near 2-Year Lows

Just as there are four reasons supporting strong payroll growth, there are also four reasons supporting weaker growth. The Hudson Employment Index recorded its largest one month slide in the month of August and instead of stabilizing, it has declined further in September. The percentage of workers expecting their employer to increase hiring fell to 28 percent, the lowest since the first survey in December 2003. Further confirmation of the slowdown in hiring came as the Conference Board’s gauge of help-wanted ads plunged to a fresh all-time low of 23. Uncertainty over employment prospects took a toll on consumer confidence, and the index for sentiment through the week of September 18 deteriorated beyond expectations to the weakest level in nearly two years. The percentage of respondents who considered jobs to be "plentiful" declined to 25.7 percent from 27.5 percent while individuals who found jobs "hard to get" rose to 22.1 percent from 19.7 percent. After rising 3 points last month, the Monster.com Employment index remained unchanged. According to the press release, opportunities for white-collar occupations in general and the financial sector in particular have eased. Not a day has gone that we have not heard a fresh lay off announcement in the financial sector over the past few weeks. This has driven consumer confidence to a 2 year low. If the labor market is really recovering, confidence would not be this weak.

Conclusion

As you can see, there are strong arguments in favor of both strong and weak payroll growth. Overall we do not expect another month of job losses, but at the same time there is a strong chance that payrolls could fall short of expectations. The currency market is banking on a strong release and the recent correction in the stock market indicates that equity traders expect one as well. Even the recent movement in bonds suggests that the same sentiment is shared by fixed income traders. Compared to the moves that we have seen since the beginning of September, the latest retracements or corrections are comparably mild, indicating that many traders are only cautiously optimistic. Therefore we expect a big reaction to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls number regardless of whether it is strong or weak because traders will be looking to the headline number and the revision for clarity on what the Federal Reserve will do at the end of the month.

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

FW CS 19:57 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Jon
Thank you.

GVI john 19:51 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
FW- from GVI

FW CS 19:46 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
What are expectations out of NFP tommorow? I am hearing 100K. Some accounting tricks due to Students going back to school and rehiring. Of course that was also right in the middle of the subprime layoffs so probably going to offest those gains. I think it will be less than expectations less that 50K.

dc CB 19:23 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Merrill Lynch: Would not be firing people and closing divisions if they believed businesses had hit a short-term blip in their performance - Punk Ziegel.

Punk Ziegel notes that MER has apparently severed its relationship with Dow Kim, the past cohead of its institutional securities business. It has also dismissed Osman Semerci, global head of fixed income and Dale Lattanzio, co-head of fixed income for the Americas. They say these dismissals reflect mgmts' views as to the outlook of these businesses. They would not be firing people and closing divisions if they believed that the businesses had hit a short-term blip in their performance, says the firm. Additionally, the firm says they would not be taking these actions if they thought that the Fedcould revive these businesses by printing money and cutting interest rates. They say these actions of these firms should raise cautionary flags in front of investors who think that the problems in the financial industry are now over and it is time to buy these stocks.

briefing.com

Mtl JP 18:13 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
BAY 18:09, hold bias to sell dlrcad blips to and above 1.00.

USA BAY 18:09 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP,

Could you kindly share your view on usd/cad please? I will not be trading on Nfp day, so more for the week ahead. Tia

Mtl JP 17:57 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Perrie 17:51 / free market, when sick, is self-healing. Healing is taking long because some elements refuse, spit, scratch and resist.

madrid mm 17:57 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 17:36 GMT October 4, 2007
No worries ....
The post was intended to tell people to always try to keep it simple, don t marry your trades, take profits when you can etc.

I have no clue where are the pairs going.All i know really is my balance a/c at the end of the day. 8-)

CU Tom

Como Perrie 17:51 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
FED's Fisher says credit market is ill. Healing to take long time. Admits also consequence of market healing manipulation to distorts equity markets and economies in general.

Stockholm za 17:36 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   

OK i Understand... Given..
EUR/USD is at 1,4129 … all the post under as to where it will go next is/are only assumptions…
Happy trades to you….

madrid mm 17:22 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 17:18 GMT October 4, 2007
never assume. As Bill Clinton said once ,if "you assume" you make an censored of you and me !!!! 8-)

GENEVA DS 17:22 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
funny feeling tonight... it looks to us that the long USD positions... (especially against EUR and GBP) are way too overcrowded tonight... A lot of wishful thinking of a top in place all over... and with Prechter, Mahendra and COMPANY all lined up for a turn in EUR and GBP... watch an eventual break of 1.4250 and 2.0500 very quickly and then another 10 percent up.... gl

madrid mm 17:21 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 17:18 GMT October 4, 2007

My good cyber FX trader, you are free to take it the way you like it
8-) But there is some truth in it,isn t it ?

Bagehot Had Credit-Crunch Answers 130 Years Ago: Mark Gilbert

By Mark Gilbert

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Walter Bagehot, an economist and author writing in the 19th century, had the answers to the current credit crunch.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aK7I0w1FQa_M&refer=home

Stockholm za 17:18 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   

madrid mm 17:07 >>
Am I to assume that, that was a joke??

madrid mm 17:07 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
To be a successful trader you need to do three 3 things :
1. Make pips
2. Keep pips
3. Repeat
If you can repeatedly do these three things, then you're on your way! But it's no cakewalk. 8)

Lahore FM 16:12 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 16:09 GMT October 4, 2007

TH,they look set for continuation into and beyond nfp.

London Gooner 16:11 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 15:58 GMT October 4, 2007
-
Well there is a fibo approaching at the 239 area. Also daily potential
shoulder at same area. It's an important level as we either fly to 247 or return to neckline 219.
I am not in a position in the pair yet. But given that stocks seem to
confirm they want to be bullish we can expect higher yen crosses under that scenario. My biais is bullish but would like 239 cleared.
Don't mind buying higher.

Charlotte TH 16:09 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, your thoughts on eurusd and gbpusd please. I feel they are probably done with their correction and ready to continue the rally.

madrid mm 16:06 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Jobs data may give more questions than answers

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN0425990220071004?pageNumber=1

USA BAY 15:58 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
LONDON GOONER,

Could you please share your view on gbp/jpy please. Really appreciate it. thanks a lot

Lahore FM 15:56 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
eur and gbp come out unfazed by ecb and boe decision/statements.

London Gooner 15:52 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex.
Just bought the Evening Standard. Front page 'Average London Home is more than £300,000 for first time and still on way up'
Prices jumped 3.4% between June and last month. Nationawide YoY is 16.5%, Halifax 18.3%.......

The beast is still flying.

Como Perrie 15:38 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
might be dennis might be...

so far am looking bit differently than printed around, yet the global economies are suffering but are less indebted and most of US Gdp was related to armaments supplies more than else, plus housing etc... so I do wonder what if an Iraq repat more than else... I guess growth falls in US to 1 pct or lower ..then maybe the buck will regain again some strenght......

second option is carry trade goes home base into loan liquidations and after a turmoil again the buck might gain...

eur and gdp are held up by the yen so as the usd which is much more held up for the same reason,,, hence market not respecting fundamentals at current...but this we know is temporary even with the most powerful weapons around the globe as reality at one point shows out somehow..

me guess a bad decade for most people around is on cards...

NYC NYC 15:37 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
housing mkt down on higher rates? garbage,
it is a huge bubble, now deflating,

intrinsic values depend on income, production,
Spain was priced about 3Xs intrinsic .
bidding uo each other's houses, doesn't create wealth,

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:32 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:29 GMT

even stranger how the mkt can ignore weakening EZ or UK numbers and then react to US data

Como Perrie 15:29 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
toronto 15:20 GMT October 4, 2007

If true subprime might explode again sharply.

Strange the whole those negative US factory orders have changed mood again onto undecided territories for the buck.

toronto 15:20 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
rumours going around Goldman being investigated by the SEC, re irregularities in their credit book

London NYAM 15:00 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP On the mend? Bought small pos at .6925 ready to add on dips if seen .6880 and .6851// Longer term trade playing for .7100+

Syd .. 14:56 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
FOCUS : European House Mkts Slow In The Face Of Higher Rates
House prices in the U.K., Ireland, Spain and France have fallen in recent months as borrowing costs rise.
And economists warn the weaker tone is set to spread to other European countries as bank loans become more expensive following the recent turmoil in global credit markets.
U.K. lender Halifax Thursday reported that house prices fell 0.6% on the month in September, the first decline reported so far this year. The annual rate of increase slowed to 10.7% from an 11.4% rise in August. Also Thursday, the Economic & Social Research Institute and mortgage lender Permanent TSB said Irish house prices fell 1.9% in August from a year earlier, and by 0.3% from July of this year. The most recent data from online estate agent facilisimo.com shows the average price of a Spanish home fell 0.3% in September from August, while data released by France's National Federation of Real Estate Agents Wednesday showed that house prices fell 1.0% in the third quarter of 2007 from the second quarter - the first time prices have fallen since 1998. "Housing markets are likely to be negatively affected by the change in the financial environment," the European Commission said Thursday.
The Bank of England raised interest rates five times between August 2006 and July, to 5.75% from 4.5%. With the difficulties experienced by mortgage lender Northern Rock PLC adding to the tightening in loan availability underway across Europe, economists expect the housing market to continue to slow. "Evidence is mounting that the housing market is now cooling markedly in the face of the financial market turmoil and the increasing affordability pressure on house buyers coming from higher interest rates, elevated house prices and modest real disposable income growth," said Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight. At 60% of gross domestic product, Ireland's household debt is high relative to many other European economies. Much of it is also in the form of variable rate mortgages, which means borrowers have seen their repayments rise as the European Central Bank hiked rates eight times between December 2005 and June 2007, to 4.0% from 2.0%. "During the past six months the housing climate in the euro area has become palpably more negative," said Julian Callow, chief European economist for Barclays Capital. "The main reason is the ongoing process of interest rate normalization by the ECB." Other euro-zone housing markets that are cooling in the face of reduced affordability are Spain and France. "The deterioration in affordability has finally taken its toll," said Gilles Moec, an economist at Bank of America. "According to our estimates, interest-rate adjusted affordability in France in early 2007 was only marginally above the trough observed in late 1991, just before the last housing market correction." While it is clear that European housing markets are beginning to weaken, economists don't expect a hard landing of the sort that has occurred in the U.S.. The process of getting a mortgage in Europe is generally tougher, with subprime loans accounting for a much lower percentage of the market. "We do not expect a hard landing of the French housing market - a protracted period of significant falls - because we do not expect a massive increase in defaults," Moec said.
Equally, in the U.K. a continued lack of available property for sale and a high level of employment is expected to underpin the U.K. housing market, according to Halifax chief economist Martin Ellis.
dowjones

The Netherlands Purk 14:56 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
hmmm Dick located in Basel? Been there, but no humour so i had to leave urgently when i led those chickens into the trousers of the daughter of whoever was in charge where i was...
Ok watch it now because Dick is angry and e/u ticking to the high thing now. On the other hand, why not go back to 14100 again?
Just watch yesterdays high.
I am flat on e/u ,almost flat in Bugger, and keeping my 1/2 possie in loonie.
Thank you ZEUS.

Gen dk 14:48 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK YH 14:21 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 14:19 GMT October 4, 2007

so you have confidence GBP will drop again? may i know the target level? please inform me if you have any idea, but now is 2.04

London NYAM 14:20 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Hey all the bad news is priced in the Dollar sell the Euro dollars oversold. Hey wait a minute its REALLY BAD in the US! What were we thinking sell the Dollar! Its like psychological Pong now. Wave 4s are nasty (or maybe this is wave 2 trend down akk). Looks like we swing north now.

St. Annaland Bob 14:19 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 14:11 GMT October 4, 2007

my avg now is 20359 ... I promise you to post that trade when I will close the total position ... I am playing for cable to go lower.

UK Alex 14:17 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The world’s second largest actively run bond fund, Japan’s Kokusai Global Sovereign is staying away from US Treasuries. According to Masataka Horii, who oversees $47.6bn.

HK YH 14:11 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Kaunas DP 13:39 GMT October 4, 2007
St. Annaland Bob 12:54 GMT October 4, 2007

GBP is testing record high again, short GBP is killing yourself

Makassar Alimin 14:09 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 13:37 GMT October 4, 2007

dont worry, i can be wrong just like everybody else, feel free to do the opposite if you have conviction, we have a market :)

HK YH 14:08 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
C9? have this index? Just treat this as joke is better

Como Perrie 14:07 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
http://blogs.reuters.com/blog/2007/08/13/goldman-turns-quant-lemons-into-lemonade/

Hong Kong Ahe 14:06 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:02 GMT - I forgot perhaps 1 or 2 week ago, China Govt has approved to set up 2 investment funds to manage part of the China Great reserve surplus. The amount is now making them to be the world largest funds. Their track record.. they are making it... LOL.

Hong Kong Ahe 14:03 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 14:01 GMT, C9 = Cantonese saying housewives.

UK Alex 14:02 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:49 GMT October 4, 2007
Do the Chinese have a good track record on this sort of thing?

HK YH 14:01 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:49 GMT October 4, 2007
Market sentiment C9 Index? What is that? Please tell me more.

GVI john 13:50 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Survey Analysis Courtesy Cumino...

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Hong Kong Ahe 13:49 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 13:37 GMT - Have you heard Market sentiment C9 Index? I would like to remind the largest investment fund of the world now (China) has bought alot of USD Call Options silently as a member yesterday posted here. So... you need to get it and run fast. GLGT.

GVI john 13:47 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
In the October monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has deteriorated. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.4148 from 1.3880 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point (October 2 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.4155.



The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was about neutral in the EUR/USD at 48 from 56 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.


The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast improved to 115.24 from 112.56 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 115.85. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was about neutral. It was 49 after 45.



Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $77.88 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $75.18 estimate.



In a special question, participants were asked when they felt Libor spreads would return to “normal” levels. Only 15% expected such a change before the end of the year. The bulk (70%) expect normalcy by the close of 1Q08, while the remaining 15% expect such a development after the close of 1Q08.


For complete detailed survey results including history see:

Click Here

Kaunas DP 13:39 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
cable is going down to test 2.02

HK YH 13:37 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 13:32 GMT October 4, 2007

you believe EUR will test below 1.40? But current USD is very week and most people planning buy on dip...

UK Alex 13:34 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
* Trichet: Fincl Turmoil Hasn't Modified Baseline Econ Scenario

Makassar Alimin 13:32 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
still believe euro is heading 1.3980/90

London Gooner 13:31 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Cable resistance is at 2.0415. Daily close above 2.0440 and it's back to buy mode.
If doll/yen will go and test 118 then g/y will support Cable.
Watch out for squeezes, best wait for breakout either side now for
better moves.

HK YH 13:30 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:54 GMT October 4, 2007

should stop loss... that other buddy, what do you think GBP? will test 2.0625 again? Technical is bullish, right?

USA Zeus 13:28 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 13:04 GMT October 4, 2007

Yes and yes. Dick is always lurking- even when dealing in (rubber) chickens. Keep on with the range thingy good soldier.
Must be the Toyota.

Out before the MIB catch up.
Happy Day!

St. Annaland Bob 13:26 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 13:24 GMT October 4, 2007

no problem, target remains the same while entry will be another...gave 35pips and with entry 50pips above the initial entry it makes it 15pips better entry

Toronto tn 13:25 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 12:58 GMT October 4, 2007
St. Annaland Bob 12:54 GMT October 4, 2007

Don't worry about all that, just trade the opposite way as him and you'll be ok.

UK Alex 13:24 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:19 GMT October 4, 2007
It's a long-standing relationship. Haven't a clue what you're talking about.

HK Kevin 13:24 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:17 GMT, thanks. Loud and clear. I have a short AUD/USD position from 8910 yesterday, with stop now at 8899.

HK YH 13:24 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:54 GMT October 4, 2007

see? GBP is testing 2.04 again

London NYAM 13:23 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
lol!
No i swiped out of long averaged down from 1.4130. As I said, Always too early. Well I at least know who Dick is now. gl

Hong Kong Ahe 13:17 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:02 GMT - Typical error, I mean USDCAD. :) Sorry for confusion.

Basel Dick 13:14 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
yes Purk, how I may help you?

The Netherlands Purk 13:09 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, ask ZEUS who Dick is!

The Netherlands Purk 13:05 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 12:57 GMT October 4, 2007

Most people are dead...

The Netherlands Purk 13:04 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Well Dick did not add pips to the 14131 thing, so we are now 50 pips in profit arent we NYAM? At least i am...
Ik think ZEUS is in profit for 200 pips still....
This is the second Thursday that the e/u gives us plenty to think about.
I like loonie because it is like stampertje....

St. Annaland Bob 13:03 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 12:57 GMT October 4, 2007

just posted a trade with s/l ... you will see for yourself if I was wrong or right ... happy trades!

HK Kevin 13:02 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 07:37 GMT, CAD/USD at 1.03 is equivalent to USD/CAD at 0.97, right?

USA Zeus 13:01 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:56 GMT October 1, 2007
Just short EUR/USD and sing a happy tune.


Happy Tunes!

HK YH 12:58 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:54 GMT October 4, 2007

i want to know what 19999 print? don't understand. sorry

HK YH 12:57 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:54 GMT October 4, 2007

you think GBP currently is too high? but most people is very positive in GBP, saying must test record high 2.0625 again... and technical analysis also bullish in GBP... please teach me.

St. Annaland Bob 12:55 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
realy=relay

madrid mm 12:55 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 12:51 GMT October 4, 2007

Try the ECB website. They normally broadcast it there.

St. Annaland Bob 12:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK YH 12:51 GMT October 4, 2007

should I be afraid from making money? ... let the realy make it's work and also GBP will pay the price for being too high against the USD at the moment, any reason to believe new high will take place before 19999 prints?

madrid mm 12:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The ECB prez will say imHO " Ladies and getlemen,because i am a bit fed up of all the criticism i receive from some people in EU ,my colleagues at the ECB and I have decided to
1- employ our American friend David Copperfield to make inflation looks better if not disappear
and
2- use the Japanes way of calculating inflation.That way ,
soon we will be able to have an interested rate acceptable to most of the population

8-)

HK YH 12:52 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 12:51 GMT October 4, 2007

is it say something not good, if not, why EUR drop that so fast?

USA Zeus 12:52 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:32 GMT September 28, 2007
Now that they seem so confident chirping and cheering after the fact the mASSES will get hammered no doubt. USD strong policy early next week



Okie Dokie

HK YH 12:51 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:49 GMT October 4, 2007

short GBP? most people think GBP will up again due to interest rate no change... no afraid?

Rio Tinto Analistafx 12:51 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
I think Trichet is speaking now! Unfortunatelly i dont know where to see the live conference!
:(

St. Annaland Bob 12:49 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   

sold cable @ 20344 with 35pips s/l ... target open

Como Perrie 12:45 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Eurusd am currently both bought and sold. Will wait Trichet speech but guess the short will switch ont trailed from now on.

madrid mm 12:38 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
TODAY's mm wishes
-Trichet will say "the ECB is not vigilant"
-Inflation is real and Japan will raise Interest rate to 4 % tonight
If only....
8-)

Como Perrie 12:37 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
More or less as Greenspan said some years ago, inflation is hidden into assets. So hence no distribution and bigger gap between poor and rich, not countries only but at all levels.

Think in Japan,( but so as in Italy, USA and many places Ive seen) there is already some 10 mio people living with some 12K euros a year and the trend is growing anywhere.

madrid mm 12:36 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
i only hope this market today gives us some lovin' because it is a bit sleepy.....8-O

Como Perrie 12:27 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL Jp.. with a inflationary basket of the late 80s the whole of the world would have some 5 to 15 pct higher rates. So I presume to be correct we are progressively loosing purchasing power more than looking simply at inflationary baskets alone.

Primary food, energy sources have risen some 30 pct this year only and will most probably so again into next year or two.

Mtl JP 12:21 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Perrie 12:14 / Technicaly, Japan has "inflation", but alas, it does not seem to be translating into price-inflation. Japanese politicians have been trying to unlock the japanese saver mindset for last 15 yrs.

Como Perrie 12:19 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:16 GMT October 4, 2007

Oh well if you have seen the neo-con plan there are 60 other nations as Japan. But economically is different thing. If yours was militar high likely if any wide conflicts explode new armaments will be used from chemical, high tech, modern nukes and lotsa other. Bio chemical more likely if explodes. A 3 billion less will be not good for multinaionals consumer base I guess

UK Alex 12:16 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:14 GMT October 4, 2007
Japan is a military ally of the U.S. and depends on it for its own security.

Como Perrie 12:14 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:11 GMT October 4, 2007

Japan technically needs inflation and the next government will have to change deflationary policies adopted from the 1989. Long way to go so far seemingly.

London NYAM 12:13 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:00
Yes. You probably are familiar with dampening processes. Think after the massive swings we get this super tight on some of the pairs.

04-Oct-2007 12:12
FX: USDCAD extended recovery rally, from Wed's lows of 0.9935, to 1.0010 in earlier Asian mkts, but rate again met decent supply in this area. Offers found ahd of 1.0020 are linked to M&A interest concerning US Marathon Oil's purchase of Canadian Western Oil Sands for apprx. 5 bln USD. Above here more supply found at 1.0050 lvl. Bids found currently at 0.9950/60 area, then at 0.9935.

UK Alex 12:11 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
From the Telegraph article:
Japan also has colossal reserves, now near $914bn, but it is does not face the same inflationary threat as the rest of Asia, and is in any case an intimate military ally of the United States.

Como Perrie 12:10 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
but will reduce It soon somewhere behind today's high.

melbourne DC 12:09 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Mishkin: Need to pay attention to exchanges rates, says Euro Highly Appreciated < > 04/09/2007 22:06:10'

hmmm ... english not very good .

Como Perrie 12:08 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
ref cable am still holding stops in the 2.0420 area

UK Alex 12:07 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar

Como Perrie 12:00 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   

London NYAM 11:54 GMT October 4, 2007

For what Ive seen forex is loosing profit appeal even for the big guys and black boxes traders. Guess now the cleaned up most participants (even some big banks are said in deep water and continuously firing staff) are suffering heavy, this while the retail sector does not eat so much paper anymore. So guess will be less and less opportunities for the months ahead.

Some pips here and some there maybe at best, while the larger p-folio managers are looking over next year already.

London NYAM 11:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Out of EUR/USD short limit hit at 1.4125 managed to squeeze 14 p out of triple possie DCA'd. Frankly got lucky and .
You were right Mr Purk it managed 1.4130. Keep the 5 pips for me. WHO IS DICK?!
Trend change scenario is beginning to grow. Ill sit this one out no confirmation for me yet but the if we cant break the 23.6% retrace and break below, watch out Eur a gonna slide Alot. The less it goes up the more it breaks down shaking out longs running for cover.
Re CAD still range bound but it may expand its sides to snatch out the stops. Fun for some.

Como Perrie 11:52 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
There are ssome rather fundamentally bullish the cad data to be released of note today. The rest might stay under some uncertainty more likely.

Como Perrie 11:43 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
fundamentally speaking the ECB under normal market conditions would have been rising 1/4 this time

Como Perrie 11:40 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
FED's Mishkin reaffirms previous sept 21 speech about systemic risks to be still a worry.

Guess we all know It too well. Time will tell so far, even the mood is good for the US dollar at current levels, but concerns mounting onto overinteventioning and some liquidity sand holes for some currencies appearing to be a not resolvable risk with current technological and technical development achieved.

Como Perrie 11:30 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
ECB as well is awaited for a no move, but later in the speech there might be some signaling of further hikes in need.

London Gooner 11:28 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 11:13 GMT October 4, 2007
-
£1 Million + properties may take the first hit I reckon. Demand for suburbian houses/flats still strong especially if you live close to
religious sites and good schools. Buy-to-Let will hurt because of the poor returns this segement yields compare to savings rates now with ownwers trying to cash in and flood the market with properties for sale
they'll be under price pressure there.
Overall UK property market is a very tough one to call because even some problems are obvious the shortage is still very large and immigrants do start buying creating demand.
I believe we're heading for a market that will stop pricing by number of bedrooms but SqFt of living space and massive re-adjustements will be made in valuations.

UK Alex 11:13 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 11:06 GMT October 4, 2007
Yes, getting ahead of myself there. I should have said topping out, but I'm expecting them to begin falling soon. RICS had a target of y/y growth of 7%, so we need to see some m/m falls for that to hold true.

London Gooner 11:06 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:56 GMT October 4, 2007
Agree. House prices though not falling yet. More stagnante to smaller rises YoY basis.

UK Alex 11:01 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
* BOE: No Statement, Refers To Minutes

UK Alex 11:01 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
* Bank Of England Leaves Bank Rate Unchanged At 5.75%

Lahore FM 11:00 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
no change boe.

UK Alex 10:56 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
House prices are falling, but this has probably more to do with the credit crunch. Underlying economy is still buoyant.

London Gooner 10:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY probably heading to 239 area.
Interesting area as daily needs watching at that area as we have a fibo
If that 61.8 fibo does not hold as resistance 245 will be aimed at.

Off course BOE could cut rates a spoil carry trade sentimement for a litlle while. Don't see why BOE should cut yet though.
we'll find out soon

UK Alex 10:42 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:17 GMT October 4, 2007
You got anything on UK banks getting a helping hand from the ECB?

PAR 10:30 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
US stock market supported by yen carry trade . Better to borrow yen and buy Us shares than to pay $ broker loan rate . Every Us hedge fund and investment bank is borrowing in yen instead of in dollars imho .

Mumbai NS 10:24 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 09:06 GMT October 4, 2007
Deepak saw ur post now i think there is a lot more to make cheers!gl gt

melbourne DC 10:17 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
eY 165 fail 3x worth watching ...

The Netherlands Purk 10:17 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Ah yes, platty showed 14131. Now we have to wait how much pips Dick will add to it.
Dick is the leader of the gang, and he would love to get some stops.

London Neil 09:48 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London Neil 04:49 GMT October 4, 2007
eur/$ SELL AT 1.4135 FOR 1.4042 OBJECTIVE, STOP (1.4175)

In @ 1.4125.

Rio Tinto Analistafx 09:37 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Thanks! ;)

PAR 09:36 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Forex rates are set by the markets after having been steered by interest rate manipulation by so called free market oriented central bankers .

Hong Kong Ahe 09:33 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 07:55 GMT October 4, 2007 - I HAVE A POSITION USD/CAD @ 1.11 LONG AND HEDGE USD/CAD @ .9928 SHORT. If your contracts are future and not spot, I am not familiar to convert their risk ratio.
Hi RL, have you estimated your capital can sit on how many + or - pips. You need to calculate it before hand so that you can monitor your positions. Eitherwise, you will be scared to death by any movement of the price which can either +ve or -ve from your entry trading position. It is because you dont know the underlying risk. I started trading marginal forex since 90s. I developed my calculation by Spreadsheet and using it to monitor my positions both Limit Profit and Cut Loss. In volatile market, I may/might prepare to sit for the vibration of the price for sometimes 500 to 700 pips.

So you may need to start calculate your current capital and how much it will go if CADUSD both see 0.9700 to 1.03 (1.0 as privot point of vibration of the price). If you cant sit on both end, you may need to consider cutting some to preserve capitals. GLGT.

Rio Tinto Analistafx 09:32 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:21 GMT October 4, 2007
While Kampo and BOJ are constantly intervening

PAR sorry to ask this but im really an censored hole: what is the Kampo?
GT & GL

Gold Coast 09:29 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 09:03 GMT October 4, 2007

There is a Technical view on USD/CAD on this page
(towards bottom of page) :

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/USDJPY_Tests_Top_of_Range__1191411941850.html

The ongoing view is updated daily early AM New York on the following page under "Daily Technical" :

http://www.dailyfx.com/

Take care of yourself, G/L.

Lahore FM 09:22 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 09:18 GMT October 4, 2007
RL,in learning mode,you would read the forum more and participate less.your focus would be also on "help" forum where questions are asked by new traders and more experienced traders are kind enough to reply to them.

PAR 09:21 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
While Kampo and BOJ are constantly intervening in the forex markets an humoristic japanese mof Tsuda claims that forex rates should be set by the markets . Maybe interest rates should also be set by markets ?

MTL RL 09:18 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:14 GMT October 4, 2007
FM
sorry don't know what you mean
you guys have a language all on its own for a green horn like me
but if somehow i survive i will learn it

Lahore FM 09:15 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 09:13 GMT October 4, 2007
now at 0.9965.

Lahore FM 09:14 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 09:03 GMT October 4, 2007
having courage to cut means the trader has what it needs to succeed.market can make one wrong any day at all.

MTL RL 09:13 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:06 GMT October 4, 2007

no more CAPS haha just a joke

but it is already above @ .9983

Lahore FM 09:06 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 09:03 GMT October 4, 2007
RL,as posted for you earlier.usdcad can go up.0.9960 area is strong support.

no Caps plz!

Mumbai Deepak 09:06 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
NS / Look at INR....A direct play on Conviction! I made a good bite. Did you make?

MTL RL 09:05 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
My apologies to everyone. I did not know this
I am not shouting
I am so depressed I could not shout if I tried

Sorry everyone

MTL RL 09:03 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 08:50 GMT October 4, 2007

STILL WOULD LIKE TO HEAR MORE ABOUT USD/CAD
SINCE I SAW THE RATES MOVE I AM JUST LOOKING FOR OPINIONS RE: USD/CAD

Lahore FM 09:01 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 08:50 GMT October 4, 2007
8 hour chart is not supportive of any more diving for gbpusd.trail or close is better.

RL dear,you better remove capitals.it is the norm not to use the capitals in posts.capitals mean you are SHOUTING.

Syd .. 09:00 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Scotland says the BoE's August quarterly inflation report suggests a further 25bp rate hike is required if the MPC's central economic projections prove correct, to keep inflation on target. So, by not raising rates at 1100 GMT today, the MPC has effectively already eased, Bank of Scotland says

Syd .. 08:57 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Don't Rule Out A BoE Rate Cut - Trader

Don't rule out a BoE rate cut today, says a UK bank trader. The market seems to be forgetting that the MPC delivered a statement after it held rates in September, that happened only twice since the BoE was granted independence in 1997, and both times it cut rates the following month. Inflation and housing data of late has been tame and liquidity is still an issue. The trader adds that the market expects the MPC to wait until next month to cut so it can use it's prior knowledge of the November inflation report as an excuse, but it didn't need such an excuse when it unexpectedly hiked rates in January.

MTL RL 08:51 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 08:31 GMT October 4, 2007

THANKS NYAM MAYBE EVN BE ABLE TO SALVAGE MORE IF THIS SO
DO YOU HAVE TIME FRAME ABOUT THE UP NOW THEN DOWN THEN BACK UP

Mumbai NS 08:50 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
FM i am holding so asked even i am in 2 minds but thinking of putting trailing stop now what do u think shuld be ok gl gt

Lahore FM 08:50 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 08:43 GMT October 4, 2007
RL,people here can at the most can give view.JP,i have heard is helping you more actively.it is best that you follow his guidance.

Lahore FM 08:46 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 08:39 GMT October 4, 2007
no guess,just crossed fingers.will see from price action.gbpusd did your thing quite fine NS.good trades!

MTL RL 08:43 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
I'M BACK THEY TALK ABOUT STOCKS
LAHORE
CAN YOU GUIDE ME ON WHAT TO DO FROM HERE
MOON THANK YOU FOR YOUR HELP

Mumbai NS 08:39 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
FM hi gud day mate what is ur view post boe gl gt

Alaska Moon 08:38 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 08:29 GMT October 4, 2007
Alaska Moon 08:21 GMT October 4, 2007
=========
Yes, RL....If you are getting this page thru your dealer, you may not have those links...
Lahore FM says to stay here as the futures forum do mostly stocks.....
Anyway go to that link I give you, and then you can click on the Forex forum, place yourself a favorite and have all the links...
Moon

Lahore FM 08:33 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
support at 0.9960 must keep good post boe and ecb.

Lahore FM 08:33 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 08:21 GMT October 4, 2007
Moon,the futures rate and the spot is only a matter of conversion.on forex forum we originally talk of direction of currencies.futures forum leans more towards stock indexes,metals and individual stocks with some talk on forex.it would be best for RL that he follows both the forums.just my opinion.

RL,there is some reluctance on usdcad but overall the bias is higher.can make to 2.0100 area.

Alaska Moon 08:31 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Mtl RL....
If you can't find the link, here it is for the futures forum...
http://www.global-view.com/forums/forum.html?f=2
Moon

London NYAM 08:31 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 07:37//
You do perk me up in the morning Purk! Unless of cours you are Dick. Or a chicken.
“If i am not mistaken e/u has to go to 14130. 14030 will spoil that.” Exactly although I would put it at 1.4125 as we like to pip-pat.
“Loonie has an appointment with 10045 and 10087.” I like the lower target and some double backs to .9960. Looking for more ranging to shake out new loonie traders like me.

Ahe// Great advice regarding CAD. Tip my hat to you!
London Kevin// Some great posts. Keep up the good work!
I think this quality quantity story about FF is a little harsh.
RL// I worry you will get your hedge kicked in just when CAD reverses to 1.09 or above and be absolutely no where. The supports are just .9800 level but their visibility could knock the hole thing down to .9750. Order of events is Up first (now) then down.
Back later.

MTL RL 08:29 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 08:21 GMT October 4, 2007

I MUST BE COMLETELY STUPID OR BLIND

I DON'T SEE IT

Gen dk 08:27 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Alaska Moon 08:21 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Over along the left border of this page...click "Futures Forum"... Good luck to you...
Moon

MTL RL 08:18 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   


Alaska Moon 08:09 GMT October 4, 2007

THANKS MOON WHICH ONE IS THE FUTURES

HK YH 08:18 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Hi guys, can we short GBP and long JPY at this moment? Please comment.

PAR 08:17 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
German banks not only got help from ECB but are also getting help from the fiscal authorities . By taking € billions of losses they greatly reduce their tax liabilities and oblige the government to look for other revenues by other less well protected taxpayers . Not very ethical , but who cares .

Alaska Moon 08:09 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 07:57 GMT October 4, 2007
=========
RL, I think most of us thought you were trading Forex spot, as this is our forex forum. Over on the left of this page you will find the futures Forum link....
Good luck to you.....
Moon

PAR 08:03 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Japanese central bankers only big speciality is talking down the japanese yen to help japanese exporters in order to built gigantic current account surplusses which can than be invested in subprime mortgages .

MTL RL 07:57 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 07:55 GMT October 4, 2007

tHANKS APPRECIATED

MTL RL 07:55 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 07:37 GMT October 4, 2007

MY PPOSITION IS FUTURES SO TIMING IS VERY IMPORTANT
I HAVE A POSITION USD/CAD @ 1.11 LONG
AND HEDGE USD/CAD @ .9928 SHORT
TIMING SO VERY CRITICAL TO REMOVE THE SHORT ONLY WANT TO MAKE AT MIN. .03 AND WILL TAKE LOSS ON THE REST
SO USD/CAD COULD GO TO 1.0300

Maribor 07:55 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 07:22 GMT October 4, 2007

In most cases, forecasts are there to be wrong...but regardless of forecast being right or wrong, you must be able to survive!
Statistics shows that small speculators are mostly positioning wrong and now small speculators are long USDCAD, while large speculators(being mostly right) on CME are 40% net short USDCAD. Which way it will go in next day or two is impossible to tell reliably.

NYC nyc 3 07:55 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
is lending in yen and borrowing in sterling free money?

Gen dk 07:53 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dubai ML 07:50 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata said financial-market turmoil and a slowdown in the U.S. or Europe could hurt the world's second-largest economy. "If the stock slump and the yen's gain continue, that would have a negative effect on Japan's economic growth".

Hong Kong Ahe 07:50 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 07:48 GMT October 4, 2007 - Yes, very soon, CADJPY is leading.

melbourne DC 07:49 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Success in Trading : Find a good broker . 3 chances next 30 hours ... surely one will hit .

BoE the best cut of all .
ECB the million dollar word 'brutal'
NFP 50k<>250k

good luck 2 all ...

MTL RL 07:48 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 07:37 GMT October 4, 2007
tHANK YOU. dO YOU SEE THIS MOVE SOON TO 1.0300?

dubai ML 07:47 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Resistance & support
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.4285 2.0655 117.80 1.1920
1.4150 2.0495 117.15 1.1840
1.4100 2.0300 116.55 1.1790
1.4045 2.0195 115.20 1.1625
1.3935 2.0120 114.00 1.1550
source: extocapital.com

PAR 07:46 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Instead of always talking about wage moderation Trichet should do better to pay some attention to bank supervision ( remember Credit Lyonnais ) where German bankers being paid millions of Euro s manage to loose billions of Euro s and Trichet is all too happy to come to their rescue by pumping massive amounts of Euro s in the banking system without any political supervision. Europe seems only a financial project that is vigilantly chasing industry and jobs away out of the Eurozone . Hypocrisy is all over the ECB .

London Neil 07:40 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 07:35: I think most of us have been burned by brokers at some point :P

Hong Kong Ahe 07:37 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 07:22 GMT - The volatility of CADUSD is increasing and has tendency to go North to 1.0300 from Range 0.9909 to 1.0308. It is influenced by CADJPY. So you'd better open the charts of both CADJPY, USDJPY and CADUSD to monitor the movement of CADUSD. Now, it is rather stagnant due to some big boys (Japanese traders) still hold firm by manipulating its level from strengthening below 116.50. GLGT.

Alaska Moon 07:37 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 07:32 GMT October 4, 2007
========
I don't understand the .0009 per month. Is that a percentage of the trade amount ??
On my best platform i would have to pay about $20.00 USD per day...
Moon

The Netherlands Purk 07:37 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 06:00 GMT October 4, 2007

And there is more to come! Well NY, as you know it Thursday so read about my Thursdays in the archieve.
Oh yes, i sold cars as well, i sell anything that my nature wants to sell, even euro's.
If i am not mistaken e/u has to go to 14130. 14030 will spoil that.
Loonie has an appointment with 10045 and 10087.

Expelled? Who is expelled? Shall it be the man with the hat? The Toyota man perhaps? Only few will recognize the good spirit in that man, the rest only sees the words, and for me words only are there for reading, the rest is up to me.
Or is it me? Or Dick? I like a goor riddle.

MTL RL 07:35 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London Neil 07:27 GMT October 4, 2007

I don't understand what that means I unfamiliar with the terminologies that is how I got into my mess By trusting a broker Now I have to get out

MTL RL 07:32 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 07:26 GMT October 4, 2007
.0009 a month

London Neil 07:27 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD extended the latest bear cycle from mid Aug's 1.0869 recovery high to trade through parity, reaching a fresh 30 year low at .9936 on 21 Sep. Subsequent bounce failed at 1.0097 ahead of renewed weakness. The breach back below .9936 now warns of an extension towards the 1.0869-1.0340 breakdown equality target at .9811. .9910 seen so far. 1.0012-1.0044 should cap.

SHORT AT 1.0000 FOR A .9811 OBJECTIVE, STOP AT (1.0050)

Alaska Moon 07:26 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL RL 07:22 GMT October 4, 2007
===========
RL...It seems to be on a slow move north..... By the way, if you still have it "hedged", how much is the interest differential daily ??? Thansk and good luck...
Moon

Syd .. 07:23 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep UK interest rates unchanged at 5.75% Thursday, many analysts say. "The case for a rate cut is not really apparent in the data, as UK survey numbers have remained above trend, and it is not clear that inflation expectations have moderated," says Harvinder Sian, market strategist at ABN Amro. "We think the chances of a cut are around 20%-30%, with the market currently pricing at the lower end of that range," says John Wraith, a strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland

Alaska Moon 07:22 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
I don't know how anyone would know....except the person who got expelled.... LOL....Anyway, IF someone has got in trouble here, I wish him/her good luck !!
Moon

MTL RL 07:22 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have forecast to whre CAD could go today and tomorrow??????????????????????

London Neil 07:13 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Who got expelled?

MTL RL 07:06 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore
Any idea where CAD will go to against $
or anyone else

London NYAM 07:05 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 06:30//How very interesting! Always up for some 'market' gossip. So who was the naughty lad?

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:30 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Sad day when GVI has to expel someone on account that their membership is dwindling because of that person’s market and/or personal views… I do not dispute the fact that in recent times the FF member participation and perhaps membership has experienced a certain lack of quantity and quality, but if the only explanation for this shift is attributable to certain active posters, then by all accounts El(ite)Trader would be long out of business. Perhaps the departing members of this forum, are getting better value someplace else… quite conceivable considering the number of blogs, forums and chat communities out there. Or perhaps this whole notion of forum censorship is repulsive to those who believe in democracy and freedom of speech; especially when those posting good ideas on a consistent basis are being vilified and harassed if for no other reason than simply for sharing freely on the same turf where others are trying to make a sales pitch?

Way to go GVI!!! Keep this up and we’ll know soon enough where your value area is in this market!

London NYAM 06:00 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:45// Gurus? Dicks? Chickens? Anonymous posters from the USA?
CAD starting to look like it wants to form a triangle and drive everyone mad before it breaks out. And that move in Eur, though done or just about for now (i really dont think your target will get hit before a bounce today and/or friday)> Still it would be hard to argue that that move was not impulsive so another deeper leg seems a set up some time next week. if it unfolds into THE reversal is hard to say. until 1.3864 rising t-l support gets challenged, if at all.

The Netherlands Purk 05:55 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
USA 05:51 GMT October 4, 2007

Nope sharky, it was done in Austria of all places.. Nice country!

madrid mm 05:55 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Big players add liquidity and risks to global market

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0325365120071004

madrid mm 05:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
We might expect some fireworks today @ 11h00 and 11h45 GMT

Expect the unexpected.

madrid mm 05:52 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
GM FX jedi 8-) Another day, another opportunity or 2

* UK Telegraph: High noon for BoE over rate cut: The BoE has come under increased pressure to perform an emergency interest rate cut at its meeting today.

* WSJ: Strong Euro Stirs Fresh Jitters: European politicians and businessmen are expressing concern about the euro's strength.

* BoJ Dep Governor Kazumasa Iwata says there is need to guide monetary policy by looking closely at the risks. Risk of US economic slowdown is heightening. Stock price falls and JPY rise, if sustained could be negative for Japan economic outlook.

* BoC Dep Gov David Longworth says BoC needs to assess the effects of the soaring CAD, and tighter credit on the economy is it decides on its next monetary policy decision on Oct 16.

* Fitch Ratings has cut credit ratings of $18.4B of bonds backed by subprime mortgages issued in 2006, citing an increased risk of default after an "unprecedented'' slump in home prices. - BBG

* UK Telegraph: Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar: Vietnam is planning to cut its purchases of US Treasuries and other dollar bonds, raising fears that Asian central banks with control over two thirds of the world's foreign reserves may soon join the flight from US assets.

* UK Independent: The RBS-led consortium of banks yesterday overcame the final major regulatory hurdle in its battle to buy ABN Amro for EUR71bln largely cash offer, when its Belgian member won EU approval after making concessions to combat competition concerns. Barclays' bid ends today, with the consortium's following tomorrow.

* French INSEE sees 2007 GDP at +1.8%m/m from +2.1%.

* Markets on Central banks watch for any surprises with focus on BoE and ECB today, with GBP weighed by risks that BoE May spring a surprise 25bps cut to 5.50%, while rumours of ECB rate cuts still doing the rounds in late NY, and possibility that ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet may "invoke" the term "brutal FX" again.

* GBP hit day lows of 2.0293 from 2.0325-30 as market players seen reacting to the UK Telegraph article on "High Noon" over BoE rate decision, with GBP/JPY falling to 236.40-50 from above 237 handle, and helping to trigger USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, Cross/JPY sales as the selling gained momentum and triggered stoploss hunting.

EUR dragged lower on fears that ECB Pres Trichet may signal "vigilant" over "brutal FX" on the high Euro, with EUR dipping back below 1.41 handle to 1.4085-90, after having risen to 1.4107-10 on Telegraph reports that Vietnam is cutting UST purchases.

EUR/GBP at 0.6940-43, could rise as battle for ABN seems drawing a close today for Barclays, tom for RBS-led consortium seen as the frontrunner on its large cash EUR71b bid.

EUR stops below 1.4050/ 1.40 though, GBP stops building blw 2.02/ 2.01.

AUD stops hit blw 0.88 from 0.8830 to 0.8790. NZD sold again, large German good sellers. USD/JPY rose to 116.77 at fixing, on Japan mega-city banks, US invs houses buying, but unable to take out 116.80 barriers -rumored China , Asian (Despite the holiday), b4 hitting day lows 116.45 on talks N Asian CBs selling USD after their local intervention.

Nikkei -117.36pts or 0.68% at 17,082.53. JGBs lower, 10-yr yield +0.025% at 1.715%.

Crude Oil remains below $80 at $79.80, -0.14.

Gold corrects to 1-wk lows, hitting $723.70, now at $724.50.

hong kong nt 05:52 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Gold 850 in the lips of many traders. Not surprise to see a dips towards 700 line first..FWIW..

USA 05:51 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:45 GMT October 4, 2007
Purky....was your chicken deal done with Bob , because i heard he is INTO chickens....lol...

The Netherlands Purk 05:45 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Loonie is nice and steady (10045-10087), campe. Swissy still indicator, watch the 11845.
Shall we see the 13975 today? It is Thursday today no doubt, normally euro strength day, but weakening just started last Thursday. The bugger looks nice there for all the entries of the guru's...
Happy day!

Lahore FM 04:57 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 23:27 GMT October 3, 2007
Analista,JJ's reply to your question was just fine.1.4060/and again at 80 support is pretty good for next rise.

London Neil 04:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
;>P

USA Zeus 04:53 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London Neil 04:50 GMT October 4, 2007
Indeed. Have a good one mate- cheers!

London Neil 04:50 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:39 : first sign of madness, you know...

London Neil 04:49 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
eur/$ SELL AT 1.4135 FOR 1.4042 OBJECTIVE, STOP (1.4175)

$/yen LONG AT 115.95 FOR A 117.15 OBJECTIVE, STOP (115.89)

$/chf BUY AT 1.1755 FOR 1.1845 OBJECTIVE, STOP (1.1712)

$/cad SHORT AT 1.0000 FOR A .9811 OBJECTIVE, STOP AT (1.0050)

£/$ SELL AT 2.0335 FOR AN INITIAL 2.0241 OBJECTIVE, STOP AT (2.0375

Enjoy...

USA Zeus 04:39 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:32 GMT September 28, 2007
Now that they seem so confident chirping and cheering after the fact the mASSES will get hammered no doubt. USD strong policy early next week.



LOL

Syd .. 04:38 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
High noon for BoE over rate cut
But while it is widely expected to leave rates on hold at 5.75pc, experts said there remains a significant possibility that it opts for an cut to keep the economy from stumbling.

The British Retail Consortium said the MPC needed to take immediate action. "It is clear the time has now come for the MPC to reassess its priorities," said its director general Kevin Hawkins.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/04/cnrates104.xml

Bangkok FUA 04:34 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
nobody posts trade position? quiet day!

Mumbai NS 03:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
As expected the stop at these lvls comes frm a dollar short vs yen digest with respect to the market and wait for upticks but other dollar longs doing very well and clasping on to them for the moment although still short term only .Gud one FM on usd jpy u read it rite and won't rule out a touch 117.5 fn but me eagerly waiting for it cheers gl gt

London Neil 03:28 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Rumours are circulating that a THINK TANK out of NY has expressed concerns over the strength of the Eur, with the news coinciding with some fairly sharp EUR/USD losses to session lows. Talk is that the report is entitled "Extreme Currency Diplomacy". A semi official bid at 1.4160 has also been pulled, freeing up the downside, with the talk likely giving traders a reason now to go a stop loss chase to the downside given some badly positioned longs in the market. Note that chatter this week has centred on concerns over the Euro's strength, with Juncker especially voicing an opinion, and Prodi earlier today stating that he is "worried" about Euro's strength, adding that Germany and Italy share common currency concerns.

Springdale BDH 03:12 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:55 GMT October 3, 2007

Thanks for your explanation of a possible 1.47 on the EUR/USD!

London Neil 03:09 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
BOJ IWATA said there is need to guide monetary policy by looking closely at risks for econ outlook. Iwata says CB need to watch closely capex, consumption and said price moves such as Yen, stock prices and land prices are key factors for monetary policy. Iwata says that Japan's corp sector is firm but there is delay in household sector recovery, Japan"s current econ recovery highly dependent on exports and could be hurt if US and European econ slows. Added that the US econ slowdown is heightening, that it will take more time for US housing sector adjustment to end and the timing for end of financial mkt turmoil is still uncertain.

London Neil 02:50 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok FUA 02:44: Education is the key, my friend, read as many books as you can get hold of and soon you will be making calls of 2,3,4 hundred pips of your own.

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by Murphy, John J. Is a great one to get you started.

London Neil 02:45 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd! w0ot!

Bangkok FUA 02:44 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
London Neil 01:54 GMT October 4, 2007

Thank you...
reviewed some posts in the forum, saw some ppl like Lahore Fm, alimin, etc.. are great ..
especially lahore fm, i dont even believe what i saw, couple hundred pips everytime.
nice call

Syd .. 02:16 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
The Bank of Canada will take the recent appreciation of the Canadian dollar and its effects on the economy into account in its decision making on interest rates, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor David Longworth said Wednesday.

"The dollar is an important price and we take it into account," Longworth said in response to an audience question after a speech to the Investment Industry Association of Canada Wednesday night.

Asked if curbing the rallying Canadian dollar could become a more important priority for the bank's interest rate policy than keeping inflation on target, Longworth said that would not be the case.

"There is not a point at which it's going to take priority. That is not to say however, that we don't take into account what's happening to the value of the dollar in deciding what the appropriate interest rate is to set to hit our inflation target," he said.

One of the key potential impacts of the currency's value is on the balance between aggregate demand and supply in the domestic economy, he said.

London Neil 01:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok FUA 01:31

http://www.global-view.com/forex-education/forex-learning/shanghai_bc.html

Rio Tinto Analistafx 01:54 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
They are many gurus here but they are sleeping lolol
Tomorrow we will know about BOE statement
GT & GL

London Neil 01:53 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok FUA 01:31..There are many that would profess as much. You are your own guru. There is a help forum if you have any questions.

Bangkok FUA 01:31 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
may i know if there is any guru in this forum?

Bangkok FUA 00:00 GMT October 4, 2007 Reply   
new to forex...
someone has a good view on gbp/usd?

Thx

 




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