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Forex Forum Archive for 10/12/2007

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Norway e.s 22:10 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Wish all a nice weekand!
Oilman : missing your post ,hope you com beck soon! Purk: sending you a mail msn. not work.

Norway e.s 21:55 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za, Can i ask for yor e_mail?Dont see so many fx traders from skandinavia.

Auckland JJ 21:33 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi closed 0.7762 approx, how much more upside before NZCB moves in again to help poor exporters, i think it was around the.7850 mark the last time and it made very little difference. Aussie also flying. Would appreciate any views as where to from here .7762. Thanks.

GENEVA DS 20:58 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
New Dehli

our long term target is 4.00 on USDZAR... so basically SELL every rally... working best are ZARCHF or ZAR JPY... hope that helps.

New Delhi 20:55 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
is there any body tell me abt usd/zar

USA BAY 20:52 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP

Can you please share your view on usd/cad and cad/jpy please. tia

Mtl JP 20:28 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 18:52 / for the modelbuilders concerned with 5 year time spans why not invoke ghosts of all past october crises: 1987, 1998 2004 and 1929 for those model builders using 25th standard deviation calculations for the risk of an event occuring once in 100,000 years ?

dc CB 20:21 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Tell me again how the game isn't rigged. Released 15 mins before the close, the day after a big down day, resulting in a retrace of all losses.

US Banks, Regulators in talks on short-term debt liquidity - WSJ
Treasury officials are meeting with JPM and C on “jump starting” the ABCP market. Structured investment vehicles are a topic of discussion. The plan, which has been in the works for three weeks, is aimed at helping bank-affiliated investment vehicles that issued tens of blns of dollars in short-term debt, including commercial paper.

GENEVA DS 20:19 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
FOR ALL USD BULLS IN THIS FORUM ...

We think the best way to play the USD bullrun is in getting long AUDCHF.... as USDCHF will remain 1.1800 , while AUDUSD is going to 1.25... which means , you can make 30 percent plus carry.... if you go short EURUSD to play the USD bull , then you risk LOOSING 30 percent... your choice...

GENEVA DS 20:15 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GOOD NEWS FOR AMERICAN BULLS...

CADJPY closes at new 18 year high at 120.88.... we bought into the close... Next target 137.00 then 150.00 all happening soon in this cinema... all the best to everybody.

madrid mm 18:52 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Jut a little bit of history fwiw...8-)

Next friday we will celebrate 20 years of Black Monday , the name given to Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped dramatically, and on which similar enormous drops occurred across the world. By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.8%, Australia 41.8%, Spain 31%, the United Kingdom 26.4%, the United States 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

Have a gr8 w/e and hopefully we will get some gr8 semi finals in world cup rugby 8-)

Stockholm za 18:01 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   

pittsburgh pa 16:12 >>
from where are you holding those long trades ?

USA ZEUS 17:46 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Well yes. Great news for USD bulls. GBP/USD 2.000000 is coming Then 1.9777('s)

Smiles.

FW CS 16:46 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:30 GMT October 12, 2007
Long term projections are fine but very few of us can hold on to say a long Euro thru a 3-5 figure correction. Timing is everything. Are you saying buy here now?

Geneva 16:43 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:30 GMT October 12, 2007

You are looking too much at monthly charts.

GL

Van jv 16:39 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:30
GOOD NEWS FOR USD BULLS ? ..
Is EURUSD 2.00 so good news?
and why togo so extreme, 1.50 is not good enough?

GENEVA DS 16:30 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GOOD NEWS FOR USD BULLS...

USDJPY has broken up. Target over 6 Month 125plus, then USDZambiaKwatcha broken up as well... the other USD pairs set to decline a little more... EURUSD 2.00 , GBPUSD 3.00, USDCHF 1.1810, USDINR 15.00, USDRUB 18.00, USDMXN 8.00, USDCAD 70.00, AUDUSD 1.2500, NZDUSD 1.1000 etc... nice cross time ahead... and probably anticarry trader with more difficulties next decade... good weekend to all , continue to smile ...everybody... good forum...

pittsburgh pa 16:12 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
On my charts i see eur/usd bounce off support at 1.4153. Its having trouble breading that level. So im am still holding long trades with the eur/usd. Target 1.4240 then up. Any thoughts?

Como Perrie 16:10 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 16:03 GMT October 12, 2007
;)) yeap strange multi bubbles times are making socio-economic rules heavy distorted... a crab soup every day at GS I guess

Como Perrie 16:06 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
usa zeus 16:02 GMT October 12, 2007

I guess those levels could be seen only with a carry trade counter trend corrrection on lower. When It starts Its difficult to read however.

dc CB 16:03 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:50 GMT October 12, 2007

this was when henry explained to ben how to get the shorts by announcing a rate cut before the market opened, on options expiration day. this is when henry made it clear to ben, why he made $xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx while at GS, and ben, with all his book learnin', managed to only pull down an academic's salary.

USA ZEUS 16:02 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Well yes. Giant teflon brass balls man believes EUR/USD 1.40 then 1.3777('s) is coming.

Happy Day!

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:00 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Earnings season to hit full force next week. Hard to make a bullish case for carries (strictly via correlation) atm. Cable had a perfect ying & yang, double distribution day with half hearted efforts at the high and lows of the NY sessions. Monday is another day... happy trading and good hunting!

London C 15:56 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
I dont think they were exchanging baby photo's for 2 hours ???!!!!

Como Perrie 15:50 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10112007/business/market_sos_to_the_sec.htm

Did Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke give away any secrets to Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson when the two had an hour-long lunch on Aug. 16?

And did Paulson share what he and Bernanke discussed with anyone in the hours immediately after that lunch?

Those are two key questions that the Securities & Exchange Commission needs to address if the integrity of the financial markets is to be protected.

Those points are particularly pertinent because Paulson has confessed that he "talks regularly to market participants," the kind of folks who could profit handsomely from the slightest hint as to what the chairman of the Fed is thinking.

The lunch in question took place between noon and 1 p.m. on Thursday, Aug. 16, according to documents received from Bernanke by Wharton School lecturer Ken Thomas.

see full article at link

Como Perrie 15:46 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
more or less It was pinballing markets while stocks surged into new record highs. a thousand points lower the dow would be helpful as a correction imvho as many sectors of the index being yet trapped into red from previous unusual 0.5 bernanke cut to resotore the dangerously at times illiquid crucial swap market...time will tell so far..

saopaulo cg 15:37 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
upsssss, i forgot another point in favour of usd against euro: the fed won't lower rates in october.

saopaulo cg 15:24 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
does anyone think that the usd is ready for the big correction to 1.38 against euro after yesterday and today events?? ( trichet, retail sales, closed below 1,42 weekly). just a question.

madrid mm 14:51 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
willwe get a last move b4 the w/e ?

AZUSA 4x-ed 14:21 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:14 GMT October 12, 2007
Sorry to hear the NYAM... so far it looks like a decent PB (~50% of the last leg down), but the day is young. Have a good w/e :-)

London NYAM 14:14 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Nice stop hit. Raised my stop for last tranche of GBPUSD short to 2.0351 he, Dick got that too with the help of Michigan I see.
Sorry YH!
Purk// nice .9721 low from your .9723 2p Ill give you that one.
Off for the day see you all later.
Limit order long on USDCAD .9857 AND eurgbp .9872

Hong Kong Ahe 14:09 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 14:06 GMT - Jake, I didnt rely on the help of RBNZ. LOL. The big boys knew the previous intervention zone of RBNZ so they would be very careful if they wanted to lure the CB out. This is a mouse-trapped-cat game. GLGT.

denver jake 14:06 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:42 GMT October 12, 2007

I can't resist asking. Why would you rely on help from the RBNZ when the last time they intervened they were not successful and they have such limited reserves.

Hong Kong Ahe 13:42 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:38 GMT - Good level of entrance. Above 7800 level is the intervention zone of RBNZ. Unless Dick wants to earn RBNZ free money. Last two times Intervention RBNZ played very smart and Win-all. GLGT. Perhaps not just beer, red wine should be Okay, too. ;o)

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:38 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
In case someone asks 'how low can bunds go?' Well, use your imagi(c)nation! And it's only Friday???

HK Kevin 13:38 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:36 GMT, short USD/JPY at 117.70 yesterday and just short NZD/USD at 7745. Any chances for some beer money?

denver jake 13:38 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:21 GMT October 12, 2007

I see the divergences. It will help explain if all my profits go up in smoke. :) I really can't see 7670 breaking for a while now. prob 5-10 days at least. Who know's, maybe it will retrace back today. LOL

Hong Kong Ahe 13:36 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:20 GMT October 12, 2007 LOL, Par, you can publish a book now from all your past posts in GV. Should be Best seller. LOL

HK Kevin 13:34 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Sorry, my previous post should read "100-pip correction".

HK Kevin 13:21 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 13:02 GMT, notice the Kiwi over the past few days. 0.7810 is the mid-term t/p, but look a 10-pip correction may be need. MACD divergance in the 4-hr and 8-hr charts could be the signals.

PAR 13:20 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY 117.00 options succesfully defended by Kampo with some help from Gs and strong $ karaoke singer Paulsen . lol.

Toronto Silverfox 13:15 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
New lows loonnie .9725
.9715-20 big level

melbourne DC 13:15 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
anyone got comments/insight re constantio ?
if trichet said what he had said .. eurusd would be 1.45 now.

Sciacca FD 13:14 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 12:45 GMT October 12, 2007
It's strange!!! how come GBP suddenly rebound so fast. Stop Loss Hit!

Sorry but what's strange ? Have you looked at a daily or weekly chart ? No offence , pardon me if i'm speaking out of turn but anything is possible in FX you should not be surprised by anything. If you are on demo , note and learn from it . If you are live then ask yourself if you should be spending more time on your trading plan and money management , not asking forum members wether to buy or sell and where your stops should be .

pittsburgh pa 13:14 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
So are we going above 1.4240 today in the eur/usd? Tragets Anyone?

GENEVA DS 13:03 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
CADJPY broke up.... next 140.00,,, CADCHF broke up next 1.4500... good luck

denver jake 13:02 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 19:53 GMT October 11, 2007
7670 is massive support zone for kiwi. aside from obvious on daily chart, there is a huge fibo extension on monthlies. picked up some here at 7680 before, what should be, improving retail numbers.

7670 held 3 more times last nite. beautiful. testing yesterday's highs currently. a close above 7750 today and this baby should fly 7840 first 7890 second. cheerio!

melbourne DC 12:51 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 12:25 GMT October 12, 2007
Oil increases usd supply and some cb allows stronger own ccy to offset its inflation pressure.
i dont particularly like to play macro themes anymore ... just follow other prices like oil >80, and note gold didn;t drop (now above 750) after data. theme ... i bet next the mkt will say god us data put us rates on hold , but this wk hawkish ecb means eu rate may hike again.
the complication of course is that there is the stock /equities inpact as well ..
stops driven prob .. so best take some money off table (esp as eurusd still belwo 1.4210.
further ... seems like ecb const say some more hawkish stuff ...


Hong Kong YH 12:45 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
It's strange!!! how come GBP suddenly rebound so fast. Stop Loss Hit!

PAR 12:35 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Headline inflation is what normal people pay . Core inflation has been created to make Wall Street happy and inflate bankers bonusses. Lol.

Hong Kong YH 12:31 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 12:22 GMT October 12, 2007
London NYAM 12:13 GMT October 12, 2007

you got it !!! bingo

London NYAM 12:26 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Thanks DC. off to lunch with order to buy USDCAD at .9757 buy eurgbp .6972.
Good luck everyone hold on to your panties or grab a pillow.

Hong Kong YH 12:25 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 12:22 GMT October 12, 2007

thanks for your teaching. but any issue related to oil is $83? only know about carry trade unwind will hurt GBP

melbourne DC 12:22 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:13 GMT October 12, 2007
hi mate. having problem with london english again :))
but either way all the best for your trade.

melbourne DC 12:21 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 12:15 GMT October 12, 2007
sry mate . no gbpusd posn now .. stops 2.0305 as some advised is gd.
i was refering to mkt chasing price down to 2.0250 AFTER . if hold with 2.305 break , possible trade of short covering. as always need to watch action then ... esp stocks/yen crosses. oil at 83 ... i think need to move down for sustained usd strength. all the best.

Hong Kong YH 12:15 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 12:12 GMT October 12, 2007

may i ask do you short GBP also? please teach me.

Hong Kong YH 12:14 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:09 GMT October 12, 2007

seem testing 2.0305 soon, if retail sales is weak, then GBP must boots up, right?

London NYAM 12:13 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
DC looks like astop loss attempt but this Dick might get buggered.

melbourne DC 12:12 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd back above 2.03 BEFORE the data will cpmplicate data trade :((

London NYAM 12:09 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
You could try YH the critical point is just above at 2.0305 so stop loss shoud be there too.

Hong Kong YH 12:07 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:53 GMT October 12, 2007

Shall we short GBP now? Please

London NYAM 11:59 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Ahh i really should just go to bed. Yes Analista ;)
GLGT to you.

Rio Tinto Analistafx 11:56 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
NYAM "got my order filled at 2.0283 sold USDGBP" you wanted to say gbpusd right?
GT & GL

London NYAM 11:53 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
got my order filled at 2.0283 sold USDGBP. lovely.

Gen dk 11:47 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 11:38 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
I am right? Have to call the missus... she will be surprised.

London NYAM 11:04 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Purk// you are right of course but that crazy loonie wants to fly north this winter and i want to go with hon the first flight. Cant help it.im

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:04 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:36 GMT October 12, 2007
shanghai bc 01:05 GMT October 12, 2007
---------

how true is this you mentioned -- I have myself convinced 100% that even if you are not right on directions you still can money if Money Management is correct...

but certainly - the problem's newbies don't have the proper mindset to apply proper MM!

Rio Tinto Analistafx 11:03 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:02

Dr.Q thanks again! ;)

Melbourne Qindex 11:02 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 10:51 GMT - EUR/GBP will be updated over the weekend.

The Netherlands Purk 11:01 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Buying at itch usually ends up in pain by scratching so hard that your skin drops...

The Netherlands Purk 11:00 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 10:47 GMT October 12, 2007

I am waiting, because it is Friday, and Friday tells me to stay out. However if i see a range of 150 i will short for next week.
So basicly i wait for direction, and if we pass 16690 we will go over 167 again. If we pass 1660000000, we might see 165.50.
Best trades are in cloggy evening.

London NYAM 10:59 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Alimin. Lets see where it goes selling second tranch at 2.0280 and watching for the break of that 2.0250 support.
Purk thanks for the report. I guess you have gone long now and decided to try using real cream instead of that low-fat junk.
Im itching to buy this pair after my idiot cancelation order yesterday.

melbourne DC 10:58 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 10:56 GMT October 12, 2007
my pleasure . stay safe; all the best.

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:56 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 10:44 GMT October 12, 2007
Will do DC, thanks for the feedback!

Rio Tinto Analistafx 10:51 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Dr.Q its possible to share your view about eur/gbp?
Thanks!
And as always...GT & GL

Makassar Alimin 10:50 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:45 GMT October 12, 2007

i think your plan is the best to be applied today, flow has been with usd on this one since failing to stay above 2.04, might as well complete this leg for usd..like your target as well, being S3 region for the day, best of luck mate

The Netherlands Purk 10:50 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:39 GMT October 12, 2007

Well now you mention it, i am following loonie very carefully, and have come to the conclusion that it is the loonie....
Played by the oily boily boys. Remember two years ago when a certain guy called GCM told me all about the loonie been played by these guys.
I might say that those guys have to take profit between here and 9723. Do not know if 9723 has been seen yet, if not i will add, if yes ok with me. See a massive correction (i have said it) coming up, but maybe untradable as it come in a Milkshake...
I see GUPTA is around there. He knows lotsa stuff about loonie as well.

Makassar Alimin 10:47 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Purk, if you are around, any chance of shorting the bugger here with stop above yesterday's high,with target say to at least 20 dema which is currently at 163.80?

London NYAM 10:45 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 10:35//Alimin Hi. Yeah its looking pretty awful for cable. 2.0305 is for me the critical s/t level which should hold for lower towards 2.0180 so Ive decided to sell a little tranche here at 2.0268 add a llittle more if we bounce around and stops above 2.0305.

melbourne DC 10:44 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 10:37 GMT October 12, 2007
have to watch out for the wild card - cb couldn't care 4 anything usd dumping ... esp with $ mjr chart 'potential' for reversal (as mentioned y'day n note fx cm note today) and when usd bulls jumping in $mjr shorts on >e retail data.
If short $ mjr on data, would watch gbpusd 2.0305 for nasty covering.

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:37 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:25 GMT October 12, 2007
Thanks Dr. Q! Doesn't appear that bulls put up much of a fight at yesterday's support (now turned resistance). Flat and looking at those new levels. Happy Friday!

Makassar Alimin 10:35 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, gbpusd is at 2.0260/80 level now, where do you see it go from here? Personally I only read it till 2.0260/80 this morning, now I leave it to the market reaction to the data later on

London NYAM 10:31 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
So quiet here after all the sheep-shots.
Dollar strengthening theme anyone?

Melbourne Qindex 10:25 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Heading Towards 2.0226

Daily Directional Indicator : 2.0226 - 2.0240 - 2.0268* - 2.0273* - (2.0385) - (2.0675)

Daily Cycle Pivot Center : 2.0226 - 2.0240

3-Day Cycle Pivot Center : 2.0268* - 2.0273*

Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (2.0385) - (2.0675)

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is below the 3-day cycle pivot center at 2.0268* and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 2.0226. On the other hand the market momentum is strong when it is above 2.0385 and speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 2.0404.

Upside Targeting Points : 2.0401 and 2.0433

Downside Targeting Points : 2.0045 and 2.0117




Melbourne Qindex 06:59 GMT October 12, 2007
GBP/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is trading within the range of 2.0256 - 2.0594. The market is under pressure when it is below the monthly cycle pivot center at 2.0375. It has a potential to consolidate between 2.0023 - 2.0319. On the other hand the market may vibrate around 2.0375 with an expected magnitude of 2.0274 - 2.0475. If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 2.0256, I would assume that the next targeting level is 2.0174. Speculative selling pressure will increase if 2.0023 fails to hold. The downside targeting levels for my monthly cycle are 1.9772 and 1.9918.

London NYAM 09:58 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Gupta//lol I guess ill have to wait until the penguin has had his breakfast then. :)

Chennai Gupta 09:42 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:39 GMT October 12, 2007
He is busy tryng to make milkshake Nyam...it takes time you know..Purky is a do it yourself kind of guy..lol.

London NYAM 09:39 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Purk//You've been quiet since 6 am I see. Whats the plan for CAD mate? If I may ask? Or rather if you mat tell.Turns out i must have cancelled my buy order at .9735 before leaving for the chopper ride. What a bummer! So im flat everywhere now as I dumped my lot of E/J. Man sometimes i forget what i did 12 hours ago. I guess NYAM2 must have been thinking lets just play it safe while im away from the screen and forget all the hours of analysis.
Todays FT is zer interesant. Mr Authers is actually sounding weary of the market. Unfortunately he is actually too smart to use as a contrarian indicator. (God I said it~). But there is a piece ON PAGE 43 about massive insurance being taken out against a drop/crash in US markets. It claims its mostly large institutions and small retail clients. As I know ive been staking a claim to top (until March 08 I suspect) in US equities but this report made me have adoubt creep in.

AZUSA 4x-ed 08:47 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
No bias PAR, just the news... UK PRESS: Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Group is in talks to take over Northern Rock, the stricken mortgage bank, The Times reports. It is understood that the mobile phones-to-flights giant is in discussions with a group of Middle East and US investors about forming a consortium that will inject cash into the bank in exchange for a controlling stake, the paper says.

PAR 08:43 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
So far Nortern Rock borrowed $ 26 BILLION from the BOE . I wonder how they ever will be able to repay let alone pay interest on this gigantic loan. BOE really acting like a Monopoly bank not willing to admit a player is bancrupt .

AZUSA 4x-ed 08:22 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
As per Dr. Q's levels, it seems we are revisiting some familiar setups... happy hunting!!!

Gen dk 08:21 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Pete Islander 08:13 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:56 GMT October 12, 2007

Did you ever get back from your trip? Thought you elected to stay there perhaps. Hope all is well. gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:56 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
LOL interesting I remember Friday food fights happening a bit later as the day cooked the cooks. Good to hear nothing changes but the actors here. Peace and GT

ldn 07:41 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 07:34 GMT October 12, 2007
Its Friday gvm..and you are true to form..save some for later though...a few more tinnies ought to do it...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:36 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:05 GMT October 12, 2007

The beginners try to be right on directions most of the time, if not all the time, like a cat chasing its tail believng the real money is there while the old timers make real money based on right money management strategies regardless of batting average..It is the right money management strategies that is vital for making real money at all..The real difference between a newbie and an old hand in trading..


Good to hear words of wisdom in the forum. I hope you are well. Peace and GT

madrid mm 07:35 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 07:19 GMT October 12, 2007
Thx

PAR -----> LDP = Let Deflation Persist 4ever

London NYAM 07:32 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:08 GMT October 5, 2007
FM your call on CAD directional is still valid and relaible apparently. Set up for drip below .9800 is on.
I'm willing to set my self up long on this n the .9730 to .9790 zone. And target should be way the heck up there.
Limit reversed on USDCAD at .9735. Coincides with phi extension targets i posted before and while i was asleep seemed to have made out a decent five wave pattern.
So a local serious low is in.
GBPUSD looks set to sweep out that 2.0250 base now so its a sell. Very very not good for cable. Dollar turn seems to be already potentially to have started. Feels to early to me though. With US equities likely to continue down what can that mean safe-haven repatriation and risk aversion? Guess so.

Syd .. 07:32 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP Can't Levitate For Much Longer

With UK growth slowing, the housing market softening and concern over the government deficit rising, GBP can hardly be expected to remain so resilient for long. Even the Bank of England's hawkish talk could prove negative if mortgage costs are seen rising and accelerating a slide in the housing market, See Forex Focus.

chicago 07:26 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:24 GMT October 12, 2007


LOL

PAR 07:24 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Hearing japanese LDP has created special task force called " Keep the yen weak ". So as long as LDP is in power world car manufacturers in Europe and USA will face unfair competition from the Japanese. Fortunately the quality of most of their cars is better than that of the overhyped Japanese hybrids .

Tallinn viies 07:21 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
talking about euro spot here,
1,4155/60 should be good support, read offers good risk reward if one wants to buy intraday. stops should be left under previous day low 1,4115-20 range.

Mumbai Deepak 07:19 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 05:44 / Lovely quote. Thanks

madrid mm 06:02 / Today is (i)a gift. Enjoy it.(/i)

Tallinn viies 07:07 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Shangai bc - as I understand you dont believe 1,6000 during next year. just thought in environment where euro rates are on the move over usd rates it could be easy to continue this path until US trade deficit imporves remarkably...

madrid mm 07:04 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac , and you know why FX was born ? because Christopher Columbus made landfall in the Caribbean, believing he had reached East Asia. So he had to change all these Asian currencies he brought with him against South American and Caribbean currencies.

Also the expression Carry trade comes originaly from Caribean.... 8-)

Melbourne Qindex 06:59 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is trading within the range of 2.0256 - 2.0594. The market is under pressure when it is below the monthly cycle pivot center at 2.0375. It has a potential to consolidate between 2.0023 - 2.0319. On the other hand the market may vibrate around 2.0375 with an expected magnitude of 2.0274 - 2.0475. If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 2.0256, I would assume that the next targeting level is 2.0174. Speculative selling pressure will increase if 2.0023 fails to hold. The downside targeting levels for my monthly cycle are 1.9772 and 1.9918.

PAR 06:57 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY downside being protected by BOJ and Kampo defending big 117.00 and 116.50 options.

Haifa ac 06:43 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Today 515 years ago- Oct 12 1492 Columbus "discovered" Ameirca. And thus Forex was born!

Haifa ac 06:37 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 05:49 GMT October 12, 2007
mm Lovely quote ......u too give very gud tit bits of asian...//

Nothing beats a good tit bit!

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:33 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 06:25 GMT October 12, 2007
LOL - thx for that Purk. I often stand accused of talking to myself (just not on forums), which is okay just as long as I think for myself too. So will not take offense to that. Furthermore, I happen to think highly of Zeus, so I may just take it as a compliment. Cheers and happy trades :-)

Mumbai NS 06:30 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
2.0250 is now the key next is 2.0170 and watch very closely 0.8880 on aussy ....it culd really mean give me a break gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 06:25 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
gimme a break 05:48 GMT October 12, 2007

They can talk for themselves, but they are not the same

Morristown GG 06:19 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Good morning to all.
I'm short AUD/Yen 105.40
Do you think we might be entering a change in direction for the crosses considering end of Asian week, projected soft news from US tomorrow, potential lower equities to end the week, and continued Northern Rock, Countrywide and other financial news? Or is the weak dollar and strong gold going to be a stronger force for a stronger AUD, NZD etc and overwhelm the unwinding of crosses? Appreciate your insight.

The Netherlands Purk 06:15 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Wow, all those Purk things on the forum, have to watch out that i am not going to step outside of my clogs...
Ah GUPTA. Milkshaes are my favourite but i will stick to the mess.

MUMBAI N.S. : just interp the range into your own strategy if it fits ever. I am a typical "want to see profit the minute i enter" trader, so i am hunting down 10-20 pips a trade. I have that goal and it is possible. I am learning every day not to learn because of my head getiing to big, and than i can not see the market... Even Dick runs out of funds per day, so somewhere down the line he says to me: ok Purk take your measily pips than get out. That was yesterday.. Today can be another day. I am sure glad that bugger gives us the possibility to trade it pattern wise.
As for the loonie: great opps to trade long and short. But the 1.02-1.05 is still on the radar, so lock in profits.

madrid mm 06:03 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 05:50 GMT October 12, 2007

I learn everyday...And it is not only the speed that matters, that s the quality 8-)

madrid mm 06:02 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 05:49 GMT October 12, 2007
LOL, actually it was not directed to Shangai BC, although i can see now that it could be interpreted that way, so i apologies 8-)

May the force be with you all.
yesterday is gone
tomorrow is unknown
today is........ ?!?!?!?
8-)

madrid mm 05:58 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
-----“Questions are the creative acts of intelligence”-----

* Pres George Bush, in WSJ interview, says many Americans have lost faith in their ability to compete in the global economy, vowed to revive the country's free-trade agenda, and he chastised corporate America for behavior that is adding to the economic anxiety. Repeats belief free trade and globalization are good for Americans.

* Pres Bush reiterates, as Trsy Henry Paulson has reflected the view of Bush admin that the strong USD policy is the correct policy, adds the value of the currency needs to be set by the market. Relationship with China is complex, must avoid trade war.

* Pres Bush, in CNBC, says solution to housing troubles is not more regulation, but to help people refinance. US housing weakness is regional so far, and not nationwide phenomenon. Fed is independent from the government.

* Canada Finmin Jim Flaherty, in FT, says is not drifting towards protectionism despite a government promise to look into the country’s foreign investment rules.

* Rumours of PBoC CNY rate hikes (again) doing the rounds.

* Focus on HKMA with USD/HKD nearing lower end of the 7.75-7.85, having hit 17-month lows of 7.7520. (China stocks lower today)

* Talks Australian PM John Howard may call election soon.

* Econs Hiroko Ota says she holds similar view with BoJ Toshihiko Fukui on economic condition. Ota says Japan economy remains on track to get out of deflation.

* FT: Northern Rock last week borrowed another GBP2.3bn from the BoE, taking its total to GBP13bn.

* NZ August retail sales +0.2%, exp 0.4%, ex-auto +0.8%, 0.5% expected.

* Rumours filled Asian Friday session again, with usual Friday rumours (again) of PBoC CNY rate hike - some suggesting even 50bps from usual 18/27bps, and some focus on USD/HKD given its near the lower side of its 7.75-7.85 band, eye HKMA as it dips to 17-m lows 7.7520, given the firm Asian currencies in recent sessions -SGD,MYR,TWD.

* Cross/JPY fall to day lows in Afternoon trade, having being sold in late NY as US stocks reversed gains to record highs to close lower.

* Cross/JPY managed to recover in early Asian trading on fresh appetite for more JPY carry trades, with USD/JPY rising steadily to highs of 117.49 on US investments houses buying, and Japanese fixing demand, with fixing set at 117.46.

USD/JPY topside capped ahead of huge 117.50 options, with talks of expiry today at 0600GMT Tokyo cut, and talks of large sales by large Swiss, Europeans - could be options, gamma and Japanese exporters, carmakers selling foward.

EUR/USD dipped from 1.4211 on back of EUR/JPY sales from 166.80, but mkt cautious of more UK clearer, Dutch M+A related demand in EUR, EUR/GBP for the Oct 17 payment to ABN shareholders, after the huge multi-billion buying from 0.6936 to 0.6996 yesterday. Talks of good Asian CBs, M.E. (buy orders as Eid Al Fitr holidays), Russian interest to buy - ACBs EUR bids as they are long USD due to their intervention to cap their local units.

Little impact on Pres Bush strong USD talks.

GBP weighed on the M+A talks.

AUD, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD, Cross/JPY dip from highs on Cross/JPY sales on China stocks fall.

Nikkei -161.74pts or 0.93% at 17,297.24. JGBs firmer, 10-yr yield -0.020%,

Crude oil prices remain firm, $83.06 in Asia.

Gold off its 28-year highs of $756, but remains firm at $746.80, still bid.

Geneva 05:54 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 05:17 GMT October 12, 2007

Yes, time is running. It was like yesterday.
Good to see old trader here.
Take care and GL.

Alaska Moon 05:50 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
All I have to say.......
Some of us are really SLow LEARNERS !!!
Moon

Mumbai NS 05:49 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
mm Lovely quote although it does not require for one of the few gr8 posters on this forum......u too give very gud tit bits of asian session waiting for that tgif gl gt

gimme a break 05:48 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
AND OTHERS GET TO TALK TO THEMSELVES IN A CHAT ROOM. LOL

AZ = ZEUS ???? DUH

madrid mm 05:44 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
GM FX JEDI 8-)

shanghai bc 05:17 GMT October 12, 2007
You are not that old are you ?

Another day in the jungle !!! May the force be with you and remember "“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength; mastering yourself is true power.”

AZUSA 4x-ed 05:32 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:40 GMT October 12, 2007
Happy day indeed Dr.! Bookies get their volatility, traders get their daily fix (signals, adrenaline, etc), and lurkers get a good dose of humor. All in all, just one big happy family. Now, about those stops…

BTW one heck of a good call on that EURUSD.

Mumbai Jay 05:17 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 0455 gmt...That kind of euphoric projections are happening at this moment too. India's main stock index was trading at 13700 on Aug 17..Now we are banging on 19k and punters are calling for 25k by next March. Accelerated fall/rise coupled with euphoric calls are typical of topping/bottoming markets. Good day and good trades.

shanghai bc 05:17 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 04:55 GMT October 12, 2007

I remember you buying from 0.90 :) ..It was a good long-term bet in fact..Also remember Igrok,another good chap,betting against you too:)..I miss the good old days..Folks had good manners regardless of the market..Time flies:)

Mumbai Jay 05:06 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
BC I agree with your assessment ..I guess even CBs are skeptical of fighting the trends, particularly as the markets have and are growing in size. Probably their action will come when they feel it will be effective, and as you say, that time is not near yet. Some sectors of all economies will have to bear the pain till then. Thanks ..good trades.

Geneva 04:55 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 04:35 GMT October 12, 2007

Good point but the other side is when the euro was at the 0.82 in 2000, in this forum people spooked about 0.60 !

Chennai Gupta 04:49 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Yes Purky is an expert at the range thingy as well as dong milkshakes...lol

USA Zeus 04:40 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Ahh yes- Another day in paradise.
Well Purk will teach the so called pros about the range thing today (surely he is still laughing his balls off after yesterday), NYAM will likely siphon a few more pips out of the dealer’s pocket. HK RF will chirp shaky levels and bellow hot air about trades that are against it’s view as “trading one’s country pride…will lose etc”- still laughing my b’s off about that one!

Forget censoring any attacks unprovoked attacks and policing forum rules, Zeus will be accused of having giant brass teflon balls again as he trades against the mASSes- a most severe violation of (unwritten) populist policy, thus making him a "target". They keep telling me it’s not a democracy- hmpf

Can't forget that they'll keep teaching and preaching from that $10 trading guide- trying to point out tidbits here and there hoping to be viewed as experts of the trade.
Trading is trading no less.
Happy Day!

shanghai bc 04:35 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Jay 03:07 GMT October 12, 2007

The forex market momentum is the issue here..Euro in 1.40-1.45 region may be one leg of Euro's long-term top region..Euro may be overshooting to the upside now..But the forex market almost always overshoot by a mile once the momentum sets in..At present,we may have the similar situation like that of breaking the Eur/Usd parity in 2000..Euro went down almost 20 more big figures after breaking the parity despite loud complaints by Euroville officials..It may overshoot to the top side by a mile to the dismay and dislike of all cbs involved again this time eventually forcing their hands..By the time the Euroville folks agree to do something on Euro after months of loud complaints and serious discussions,Euro may well be in 1.45-1.50 region..Forex market momentum syndrome..

There are serious asset bubbles in China ,India and other parts of Asia but bubbles can grow bigger and last very long time too..Nasdaq bubble lasted several years too with some folks calling for " new era" where nobody had to work for a living any more and just buy "new era stocks" :)..Good trades..

Mumbai NS 04:08 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Purk u had a very valid point y'day reload in parts it helps.....i am saying that as bugger danced more than my expectations leaving more pleasure than pain .......hang on watch usdjpy now....gl gt

USA Zeus 03:47 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Tallinn viies 19:22 GMT October 11, 2007
And the point is? TIA

Mumbai Jay 03:07 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Hi Shanghai BC...Nice to see your useful post on the forum.
Do you think some of the economies may be entering the area of pain threshold due to the persistent Dollar weakness? We have yesterday seen the Indian Tech major posting below forecast results resulting from a strong local currency and it is likely to raise lot of concerns in that sector in the coming days. It has also become routine to see someone or the other in Europe speaking about the ill-effects of such a strong EURO. Do you think they can at all do something effective in this regard or is there lot more pain ahead? TIA

AZUSA 4x-ed 02:43 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:05 GMT October 12, 2007
Good advice as usual... found this quote interesting as well "sitting on positions and watching the counter-rallies costing truck load of money is not easy job to do and causes lots of pain all the time. Most traders even among experienced ones cannot bear that pain and give up too early. But there is no other way to make a big money and we have to bite the bullet and "sit and accumulate" as long as the medium-term trend is intact. That is why I always believe psychological aspects of trading is far more important than anything else in successful trading. A mind game like those bluffing game of poker.

Entries and exits can never be "irrelevant" for any trader for any purpose. It is just that psychological aspects of trading are much more important than entries and exits, and decisive for the success or failure of a trader in the long run. Perhaps exits are more important than entries because any perfect or near-perfect entries are possible only in hindsight."

New York JK 02:26 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
sell gbpjpy tp 237.35

Atlanta South 01:52 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Can I get someones views on the USD/CAD. This pair for me
has been a strong short for the last several months with a
few bleeps along the way. There have been times this pair would move up only to offer another short opportunity that @ times exceeded the last. Not trying to brag or talk book, but this pair has been a great pip producer for me this summer. At
this time this pair seems prone to continue down according to my model. If anyone has a view on the future move of this pair, please share it. Tks to all willing to share their views & gt to all.

Alaska Moon 01:42 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:05 GMT October 12, 2007
==========
Yes, I agree totally, BC. It is good to see you posting as we appreciate your insight !!!!
Moon

Makassar Alimin 01:12 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, do you see gbpusd visit 2.0260/80 again today? Got a feeling it would visit that area, where it ends up on friday closing though is anybody's guess..

shanghai bc 01:05 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   

The beginners try to be right on directions most of the time, if not all the time, like a cat chasing its tail believng the real money is there while the old timers make real money based on right money management strategies regardless of batting average..It is the right money management strategies that is vital for making real money at all..The real difference between a newbie and an old hand in trading..

AZUSA 4x-ed 00:12 GMT October 12, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 23:52 GMT October 11, 2007
Thank you for sharing. There is another school of thought out there... EMT. GL

 




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