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Forex Forum Archive for 10/17/2007

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Sofia Kaprikorn 23:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
btw - at00:55 GMT is the Tokyo fix - so we are entering the 1 hour time to the fix and we should see some USDJPY upside so the Exporters can get better levels to sell..
I think that was the principle..

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:54 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy Daily & Hourly both suggest more upside..

> hourly takes support in the triangle formation - it bounces off the lower diagonal line towards the resistance levels around 116.80..

> daily - low lies on the rising 20 dma.. if you read carefully BC - you'd never feel good shorting against a rising 20ma..

------
downside of coure is relevant on the breach of 116.20 (20 dma) - which puts the 115.50/60 Support - however below 115.59 the downmove will be accelerating..

any comments on this please?

London NYAM 23:08 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Bay//my pleasure. GTGL.

Vail MC 22:01 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, if around, what timeframe would you anticipate for GBPJPY target below 235? Thanks

Mtl JP 22:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
JC 21:27 / re war effect. Recent example: since Gulfwar II (march 19 2003) $100 then bought what $115.89 buys in 2007. means IF you were in retirement on fixed income, you bought less for the same $100 OR your savings kitty got skinnier OR you might have had to go back and labour some more. IF you were on salary, you might have had to take on 1-2 extra jobs to keep up with bills.

Typically, those in line closest to the printing press of a nation waging a war are: 1) military industrial complex and 2) healthcare providers and essentially this time around is no exception.

USA BAY 21:57 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Thanks Nyam, agree with you that aud/cad looks like more downside to come in th 4H charts but the dailies seems mixed, as for usd/cad seems down to me and 0.9550/80 seems very probable. Appreciate the view very much. Thanks again.

London NYAM 21:51 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21://AUDCAD looks to me negative. If you were short i'd say stay short as the critical beak points are closer at .8793 (now .8694) and then .9020 below critical level to break is .8500 so the weight of the pair seems down. Usdcad// purky thinks its done and I’m not so sure and think a probe down to .9670 is still on the cards. If so S/t AUDCAD is a downer. Below .8500 we get .8180. Just my prognostocation but if i traded this i would trade it short. Good luck.

FF-USA JC 21:27 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
I just had a thought.....maybe for Zeus or anyone to answer. I am bullish USD as well as the politically acclaimed and highly controversial Zeus. I had a thought.....If, there was an attack on Iran from either us or France or Israel, wouldnt the globe flock back into the US$ and wouldnt that hypothetically curb a little bit the climb which would ensue in oil? As well as trigger a collapse in the carry trade?

Going out for a bit.......check what answers or opinions I get at a later time. GL GT!!!! To All

Oh yeah and one more thing.....would this WW3 that Bush was talking about this afternoon have a positive affect on the US stock markets? and a negative one abroad?

USA BAY 21:24 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Do you trade aud/cad, if you do can you please share your views. The daily chart seems bullish. tia

GVI john 21:23 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
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USA Zeus 21:17 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 20:59 GMT October 17, 2007

Well yes we know the difference of course. We are positive with an upper case "P"! Humility is very helpful. For this we share and are grateful for all of our bounty- one reason to support causes of humanity as there are starving children all over this globe still.

Surely we know those obvious narcissists who banter poke and prod with attacks of great ire. As such am glad we are here to offer ideas and share in such an unselfish way without any hidden agendas.

Hats off and cheers mate!

Gen dk 21:09 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 20:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus// Can you not see the difference between a positive attitude and arrogance? Or, the difference between humility and narcissism? It may not be your intention but that's how it comes across.

USA Zeus 20:50 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 20:26 GMT October 17, 2007
Well Moon- Thx for the kind words. Please post at will. We are positive because a proper mindset makes more moolah. My post was just a reflection of fact. It is true that when I have made (lucky) calls they have been quite timely and yes when you think about it- it does cause quite a stir. Well since we are positive like the clogs we march forward unimpeded.

Happy Day!

GENEVA DS 20:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
there is actually 2 GENEVA my friend ZEUS... one is bullish USD like you since 1.16 in USDCAD and then is another one... a little crazy... that is me... I am actually as well bullish, but only USDJPY... but I see EUR , GBP, AUD ,NZD and CAD a lot higher againt USD... wait only some days and then there will be a lot of blood in the street from ALL these USD - bulls here and there... good luck and best to you.... CRUDE OIL goes to 140USD before falling back BTW

Alaska Moon 20:26 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 20:13 GMT October 17, 2007
===========
I don't normally like to post too much.....but I think if you will carefully read your post.....from the angle of all the traders, you will discover the source of the resentment.....
If you LIKE clashing on this forum....then you should continue posting the same !!!
Moon

USA Zeus 20:13 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trader psychology is amazing. One day they all shun Zeus as being to loud because he saw an opportunity. They called on him to tone it down since he was going opposite for buying USD's but now they have become mini apprentices...

Interesting to see the USD tidal shift in geneva...guess paris will be next.

Well we are positive in this camp so we'll leave it at that.
Peace out!

PAR 19:52 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Despite all their talk about "free market, free trade and limited government " the US Fed , Treasury and Government are hyperactive interventionists coming up with a new plan almost every day . At least the former Soviet economists had some 5 year plans . Lol.

Toronto tn 19:51 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 19:41 GMT October 17, 2007

Didn't brain dead leftists in France and elsewhere always go on about how great the economy in Soviet union was? Why don't you people ever learn?

Livingston nh 19:43 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR - we shall see in the fullness of time about how superb things are -- try controlling your FX, interest rates and money supply - like your first chemistry set

PAR 19:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Halifax / Agree 100 % . Chinese manage their economy superbly . Maybe the next nobel prize for economics should go to a Chinese instead of Americans who manage to blow up hedge fund like the beautifull minds of LTCM .

Halifax CB 19:15 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:10 GMT October 17, 2007
No, sorry, I never trade the pair.

USA BAY 19:10 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
HALIFAX CB,

Do you have any views on aud/cad please. tia

Stockholm za 19:01 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   

Re .. GBP/USD – The 4h/50pip tracker have S & D at 2,0274
Thus channel brake out at the moment 2,0624 <> 2,0128
Bias is still nort whiles inside the gate..
Happy trades…….

Halifax CB 19:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 17:47 GMT October 17, 2007
I must admit I get a kick out of economists that manage their own economies rather badly telling the Chinese what they need to do to fix theirs :)

Global-View 18:20 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The US economy is slowing down and businesses are becoming increasingly cautious and uncertain, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book said today.

While the economy continued to expand, "the pace of growth decelerated since August," according to the survey of anecdotal reports from the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. They described growth variously as "moderate," "modest" and "mixed." ..COntact us for the full report

PAR 18:03 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Miller directed the Chrysler bailout with government guaranteed loan but could not beat back inflation .

madrid mm 17:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:32 GMT October 17, 2007 I can not remember that far ....
I was only a child then, and i was more preocuppied about my toys and lunches than FED FOMC meetings.... I know i know i had my priorities right then
lol

HK Kevin 17:58 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Another 1/4 short AUD covered at 8848

madrid mm 17:56 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's lowered ratings on $23.4 billion of subprime and Alternative-A mortgage securities that were created as recently as June.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSlzZnAfN3u8&refer=home

Livingston nh 17:53 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
The CNY needs to float - a "faster appreciation" is not a cure for anything because the currency is not available in a market environment

madrid mm 17:52 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Chairmen of the Board of Governors

1. Charles S. Hamlin (August 10, 1914 – August 10, 1916)
2. William P. G. Harding (August 10, 1916 – August 9, 1922)
3. Daniel R. Crissinger (May 1, 1923 – September 15, 1927)
4. Roy A. Young (October 4, 1927 – August 31, 1930)
5. Eugene Meyer (September 16, 1930 – May 10, 1933)
6. Eugene R. Black (May 19, 1933 – August 15, 1934)
7. Marriner S. Eccles¹ (November 15, 1934 – February 3, 1948)
8. Thomas B. McCabe (April 15, 1948 – April 2, 1951)
9. William McChesney Martin, Jr. (April 2, 1951 – February 1, 1970)
10. Arthur F. Burns (February 1, 1970 – January 31, 1978)
11. G. William Miller (March 8, 1978 – August 6, 1979)
12. Paul A. Volcker (August 6, 1979 – August 11, 1987)
13. Alan Greenspan² (August 11, 1987 – January 31, 2006)
14. Ben Bernanke (February 1, 2006 – )

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Federal_Reserve

madrid mm 17:50 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
some interesting facts about FED
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_System

Syd .. 17:47 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy this year to 11.5%, compared with a previous estimate of 11.2%, and said an expected future easing in growth may not materialize unless Beijing tightens decisively and allows a faster yuan appreciation
more flexible exchange rate would give China's monetary policy more scope to focus on domestic objectives, namely slowing credit and investment growth, as faster growth in the near term would come at the cost of increased downside risks related to over-investment "beyond the projection period," the IMF said.

China's yuan is "undervalued relative to medium-term fundamentals," it said.
The IMF has consistently called for China to make its yuan more flexible. Earlier this year it adopted new guidelines on how member countries should conduct their currency policies, a move that trading partners who deem the yuan unfairly undervalued hope will apply more pressure on China to further reform its exchange rate system.


HK Kevin 17:47 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Really can resist cover 1/4 position of short AUD position from 8955 here at 8872

Livingston nh 17:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Par - Miller

PAR 17:32 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Expect beige book to hint at another federal and discount rate cut of at least 50 bp as core inflation seems to be under control and Bernanke is acting like the pre Volcker Fed president who s name I unfortunately can not remember .

Hong Kong YH 17:26 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Squre long [email protected] 116.40 +15pips, go nite all of you

HK Kevin 17:19 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
If AUD close under 8880 today, will lower my stop to b/e 8955.

KL MY 17:17 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
anyone comment? can gbp jpy reach 239.** this week? thanks

Bodrum OEE 17:14 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 17:00 GMT October 17, 2007

“The devil came here yesterday. I can smell the Sulphur still.”

Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, addressing United Nations General Assembly (19 September 2006)

PAR 17:03 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Euro really the currency to buy ? Mega strikes in France and Germany , racial moslim tensions in the Netherlands, political uncertainty in Italy , Belgium on the brink of divorce after 4 months without government etc .

Geneva 17:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
It is very clear that only a war can solve the mess that the actuel US president create! any way that's a good raison to buy some US dollars.

Hong Kong YH 16:47 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:30 GMT October 17, 2007

What is Red Alert? You got any signal/news?

Makassar Alimin 16:43 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
i think lots of squaring of positions ahead of G7

USA Zeus 16:33 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
A nuclear Iran means very crazy days ahead- not someone recognizing it.

Ok- no politicos here. Save it for the trash board (political forum)


tchau bollicao

USA Zeus 16:30 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Red alert: Beware of falling paper (equities) and hard assets (oil, gold etc)

St. Annaland Bob 16:25 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   

GWB set very crazy days ahead by telling world that nuclear Iran means WWIII

USA Zeus 16:24 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Unilateral themes persist. Views remain and acted in accordance.

Happy Day!

London NYAM 15:50 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
sold some EURUSD stop 1.4231 just for good measure. Off home.

pittsburgh pa 15:49 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
MLT PA 15:43 GMT October 17, 2007

Where are you from?

London NYAM 15:47 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
bought some USDCAD .9738 so I would have something to talk about with the shake-maker.

London NYAM 15:43 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
out of g/j long at 237.86 gain of 18p. Considering myself lucky.
Went lonh U/J at 116.58 instead. Cable is teasing me too much.

MLT PA 15:43 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
long eur/usd 1.4190 Stop/Exit 1.4130
target 1.4255, then 1.4315

Gen dk 15:39 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 15:28 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trust Bush to speak on my contra trade. He trully has the Minus touch.

HK Kevin 15:24 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 15:06 GMT, Mr Wong is the Professor of Finance Faculty at a Macau university.

saopaulo cg 15:22 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
i agree jm, the nice days of eurjpy bulls should be over for some days.

madrid jm 15:10 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
first target in eurjpy 164.15

Halifax CB 15:08 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 11:25 GMT October 17, 2007
Sorry for the delay - dailies & weeklies (the H&S beginning to form on GBP/JPY; LS is in Jan (sorry I said RS in my earlier), head in July, RS forming now, maybe. The RS has to stay below the LS to stay technically perfect (~241.7), and the neckline is way, way down from current levels. Right now it's just an untradeable maybe.....

Bodrum OEE 15:06 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
correction

please disregard the word "development" in third paragraph

apologies

Hong Kong YH 15:06 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:00 GMT October 17, 2007

Kevin, do you know who is Wong Kwun Yat @ appledaily? He suggests to long JPY

London NYAM 15:06 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
stopped out of g/j long 237.55 -47 see YH...

Hong Kong YH 15:02 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
I am longing JPY @ 116.67

HK Kevin 15:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 14:53 GMT, lucky is always crucial to fx trading. I am so lucky to cover my previous short USD/JPY and AUD positions near today's low level, and the short Cable got stop at b/e.
The most unpredictable pair now is USD/JPY, stay awat from it.

Bodrum OEE 15:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 14:59 GMT October 17, 2007


source: Bodrum OEE


good week to you all

Bodrum OEE 14:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
The Turkish parliament approves government motion seeking authorization for cross-border operations

This is amid appeals for restraint from NATO and the US. ...

The siginificance of it is the fact that it paves way for Iranian and Turkish campaign against Kurdish terrorists development in the wake of Vladimir Putin's words addressed to the United States during his visit to Iran this week: "do not even think about the possibility of using force"

More than 30 thousand Turkish citizens were killed because of PKK terror over the last 23 years.

PKK who claimed to fight for Kurdish rights increased its violent activity a month after Turkish parliament approved European Union accession related laws that are meant to serve this goal specifically.

HK Kevin 14:57 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 14:06 GMT, if AUD trade below 8910 again, I will lower the stop to today's high.

Hong Kong YH 14:53 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:51 GMT October 17, 2007

you are on the way. Good Luck

HK Kevin 14:51 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 14:06 GMT, sorry for the confusion. I entered short AUD at 8955 and put stop above yesterday's high.

London NYAM 14:45 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
order filled at 237.68 bid so 237.78. long G/J.

madrid jm 14:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
market very nervous with G7 next weekend. try a long jpy ag eur, aud, gbp or nzd

London NYAM 14:28 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH//Really not a master but thanks. Im hoping that this is showing you. Basically carry goes back up with stocks and stalls with stocks to reverse again. I am playing a dangerous game though so my leverage is really low. adding at 237.68 with stop for first under 237.55 and second if seen 236.90.

Hong Kong YH 14:21 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:16 GMT October 17, 2007

You a master here. Please notify us if you find any traing ideas. Thank you so much.

London NYAM 14:18 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
reversed g/j long at 237.89

London NYAM 14:16 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:42 GMT October 17, 2007
sold a small possie g/j again 238.63 slightly better start point.
out of short at 237.97 +66

PAR 14:13 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
President Bush may announce the creation of a new $ 100 billion superconduit to buy us houses ?

Hong Kong YH 14:06 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:24 GMT October 17, 2007

how come you stop out so quick, start 89.50, stop 89.55?

Gen dk 14:04 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 13:58 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 13:57 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
gut tells me that many rosy glasses in WS are just about to get off the bubble makers.

HK Kevin 13:50 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Stop above yesterday's high for my short AUD at 0.8955. Tak a rest.

St. Annaland Bob 13:49 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
closed EUR/JPY shorts for something sweet ... as a mini Zeus, it's also mini money making

Gen dk 13:47 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 13:42 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
sold a small possie g/j again 238.63 slightly better start point.

Gen dk 13:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

TREVISO Fede 13:40 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Bob, my name is Federico. Have you any trade to suggest me?

St. Annaland Bob 13:39 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Fede, I mean that going EUR/USD short with stop other than above 14310 is very risky and an invitation for DICK to take the stop.

London NYAM 13:37 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
I expect the SAP to lose steam before 1555 and 1565 and then fall quite rapidly again. Should be enough here to get the bubble-heads to talk about yet another 'Great opportunity to buy US equities Yahoooooo!'

St. Annaland Bob 13:36 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Fede, why don't you use your real name? ... DICK !!!

madrid mm 13:32 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:21 GMT October 17, 2007

why bother to go to Eurodisney when you can get access to Disney Channel 88-)

MLT PA 13:31 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
TREVISO Fede 13:23 GMT
Ciao. Place the Stop at 1.4230, above 23 the eur/usd turns bullish. If 1.4223 trades wait and prepare to exit.

In bocca al lupo.

St. Annaland Bob 13:30 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Holland's FOKKER went bankrupt when USD/NLG traded to similar rates of EUR/USD currently.

TREVISO Fede 13:29 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hy Bob, my SL is now at 1,4233 ....

Geneva 13:27 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:15 GMT October 17, 2007

The dollar will rise when US will need it to rise! No grave, No good numbers will help.

Europe need to to the same..... MANIPULATE. .

but I think we are very close to the day that a weak dollar hurt US thats why we are at or close to a bottom.

St. Annaland Bob 13:25 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Fede, ""as long as you can identify your stop.""

HK Kevin 13:24 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
OK, AUD 8955 entered short position

TREVISO Fede 13:23 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Bob, I am short on €/$ @ 1,4209. What do you think? thks

NYC 13:22 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Par, are you applying for a job?

PAR 13:21 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Problem is with the traffic mess EuroDisney will be unreachable and there will be not enough personnel to play Mickey .

madrid jm 13:18 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
IMF economist says still need to watch for disorderly dollar fall

St. Annaland Bob 13:17 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:15 GMT October 17, 2007

that's good, everybody will go EuroDisney Paris ... stock markets has a reason to go up, right?

PAR 13:15 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Tomorrow strike in France . No trains, no busses no metro .

Tomorrow strike in Germany . No trains .

ECB members do not care they never take trains, busses or metro s .

Gen dk 13:14 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 13:12 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Plan to sell AUD at 8950 with stop above the 10-day ma.

Gen dk 13:10 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 12:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY:16566 will print before 16666 ... that's a call, too ... but take profit limit @ 16610 when market trades 16601 ... peace!

Singapore fs 12:55 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:33 GMT October 17, 2007
This is real funny... suddenly i'm thinking of mini Oreo :)

London NYAM 12:53 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Exited short G/J with a few pips. Isnt behaving right.

London NYAM 12:38 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
that was usdjpy long. Stop on G/J 239.26

London NYAM 12:36 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
out of USDJPY short at 116.94 +56

London NYAM 12:35 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
sold g/j at 238.35 will add at 238.70-80 if seen.
Feels like the bounce has already shot xxxx.

melbourne DC 12:34 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
opposite of stock (+) data (stable eco with low inflation) .. but earning were good earlier ... another tough session :(
unless someone else can id another theme to trade ..

manila mp 12:34 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
thanks madrid mm

will check the site

St. Annaland Bob 12:33 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
WOW ... I feel like a mini Zeus ... LOL

Gen dk 12:33 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 12:20 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY: 11688 will print before 11744 ... that's a call

madrid mm 12:14 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
manila mp 11:52 GMT October 17, 2007 AUD/NZD

it is anybody's guess , but try the Australian banks and NZ banks.

However this site could help you somehow.

http://www.ozforex.com.au/cgi-bin/forwardRates.asp

Gen dk 12:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manila mp 11:52 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
i am not a trader but more of an investor.....just want to ask what the 6 mo, 1 year and 2 year projections respectively of the AUDNZD pair

Mumbai NS 11:42 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
4x-ed tx but i think monthly is a gud perspective.....daily is slightly not so clear for me. glgt

Gen dk 11:40 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Singapore fs 11:37 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:49 GMT October 17, 2007
Oh really... it has been hanging around this range whole week.

Gen dk 11:30 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

AZUSA 4x-ed 11:29 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 11:14 GMT October 17, 2007
Thx CB! NS, it's one and the same... perhaps better perspective as to 'what if' on the weekly.

Mumbai NS 11:25 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
CB u are seeing it on which time frame please gl gt

Halifax CB 11:20 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 10:53 GMT October 17, 2007
A classic H&S forming up (with the RS back in Jan) as long as the pair stays below ~241.50

Gen dk 11:16 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Halifax CB 11:14 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 10:25 GMT October 17, 2007
One also needs to include countries more or less tied (or banded) to the USD (eg. China, Japan).

Como Perrie 11:08 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
do think the market is just flattening down with overpositioning ahead of the a big data release from US - so did I

Melbourne Qindex 11:02 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is vibrating around the chart point at 103.17* with an expected magnitude of 102.07 - 104.26. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 102.07 which is the center of the projected series and the downside targeting point is 100.97.

London NYAM 10:55 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
that being said 116.60 is a tough zone to break below now.
Add back my long aound 116.60/65

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:53 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Ominous pattern on g/j daily... and how about the weekly?

London NYAM 10:53 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
ML// a couple micro fib targets at 116.96/98 suggest to me that it will be tough to mount on the first attempt.

Jerusalem ML 10:45 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
117 next on Jpy

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:45 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 10:41 GMT October 17, 2007
Bingo... okay, thanks!

London NYAM 10:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
out of half u/j long 116.78 +30

Como Perrie 10:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 10:30 GMT October 17, 2007

In the bunch of the 130 bio exports from january to june 2007 reported from eurostats (E27)..factories dispalced elsewhere selling USD to USD are currency risk free, yet the eurostats booking system does not calculate It, or just holding It hidden

Como Perrie 10:38 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 10:25 GMT October 17, 2007

Seen an economist netting the stats, particularly from those currency risk free for the factories dispalaced abroad as in US. f.ex BMW is producing think around New Jersey so dollar to dollar f.ex. so those are not influenced by currency fluctuations. Yet some accountant styles might be showing It else, but lotsa has changed in latest years from flows risks et all, while national accountant styles are yet too old to cope with It clearly.. more or less as multinationals in US, they can book things with multistandards or just hold separately certain units, yet recapping a global balance for which much more distinguishing is needed in the methods that will be developed next years..

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:30 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
sorry, let's try this again: sould read exports from EU27 to US and the value should be 270.0 billion euro.

London NYAM 10:29 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
probably helped by fantastic weather ROFL

Gen dk 10:26 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:25 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:50 GMT October 17, 2007
Not sure about your stats, but the ones I read state that US exports from EU27 account for ~23%. More importantly, since we're in FX land, the value of those exports is ~700 billion euros. I would think VW is not the only one on the chopping block...

PAR 10:23 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USD somewhat stronger as both CPI and core CPI may be negative , declines in electronics more than ofsetting rises in food and energy. Us housing starts in september expected to show dramatic rebound after weak summer, starts probably helped by fantastic weather .

Gen dk 10:22 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 09:51 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Would love to see Kampo s off balance sheet items . Lol.

Como Perrie 09:50 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
London 09:47 GMT October 17, 2007
Dollar woes hurt Europe - Moneyweek.com


where did they find those stupid newswriters... euro area exports to US less than 8 pct of Its exports...so a dumb view expressed imo

Syd .. 09:49 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Talk Of Cable Stops Below 2.0280 - Trader

London 09:47 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Dollar woes hurt Europe - Moneyweek.com
The dollar has been on the slide since August now, with a recent slight recovery looking like no more than a 'dead cat bounce'. And dollar weakness will have a knock-on effect for European exporters.

Como Perrie 09:46 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
thinking to resell again cable on this minor corrective move

Como Perrie 09:39 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
UsdJpy might yet retest 116.30/40 again imo..but might take longer as crosses work onto squeezing mode for the time being...while supporting the usdjpy somehow... eurjpy might be near done as an upmove...but yet time to unfold here too before clears any decent entry point either ways..down has higher probs

Melbourne Qindex 09:39 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between 102.07 - 104.26.

PAR 09:24 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Kampo aiming for stops in USDJPY above 117.00 .

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:17 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Looks like someone is paying attention to BC's opinion pieces...

UK PRESS: Chinese companies are set to be Asia's most acquisitive in the US or Europe next year, the FT reports citing a survey of the region's dealmakers. The report says nearly 60% of those polled believe mainland Chinese companies will outstrip rivals in countries such as India and
Japan in outbound merger and acquisitions activity in established world markets. Outbound acquisitions by Chinese companies have in recent years focused on investment in the resources sector in Africa and Latin America, while its leading financial services companies have stepped up overseas activity in recent months.

Como Perrie 09:12 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
this w/e G7 statments might change big market enviroment (or even not, but given the crisis there is high likelihood they will have to clear out some officially)

Como Perrie 09:11 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 09:03 GMT October 17, 2007

reason for eurusd 1.40 is that already coupla top officials from euro area and japan have hinted upon overvalued euro....

reason for gbp is some analysis i did..

so far take It as a non 100 pct guidance as most around is..there are factors that change constantly in markets so everything is subject to changes fwiw

Syd .. 09:06 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
A UK bank trader says the main points of the October MPC minutes were that the committee felt the need to show that it did not panic during the financial crisis and instead continued to focus on price stability and inflation. However, the trader suggests that the fact that a rate cut was heavily discussed and that core CPI has now fallen to 1.5% means a November cut is back on the cards

Hong Kong YH 09:03 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:49 GMT October 17, 2007

Can you explain more why you will have this view in GBP and EUR? Sorry, I am just a new to FX. Found that more people are +ve in GBP and EUR, said must test 2.06 again and break 1.43

Como Perrie 09:02 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
current larger term position is mostly flat except some yens...yet seeking confos from deviations quants looking to squeeze

Como Perrie 08:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
ref. prev. below double parity meant there :)

MLT PA 08:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
ECB's Liebscher Says Inflation Risks Are Increasing

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher said the bank remains focused on ``significant'' and rising inflation risks, suggesting it may still raise interest rates.

``The message was and is that risks to price stability are clearly pointing to the upside,'' Liebscher, who also heads Austria's central bank, said in an interview in Vienna yesterday. ``There are significant upside risks'' and ``rising oil prices are also increasing these risks to price stability.''

Source & Link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.LVRJW.BjJU&refer=home

Como Perrie 08:58 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Somewhere early november cable might be seen again below parity between 1.98 and 1.99 more likely imvho

Como Perrie 08:53 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Overall is yet a dancing evniroment for both cable and euro.. so short term approach is better currently.. cable key support I see at 2.0270 or so 2.0330 will continue to be seen several times most probably with deviations both sides

Como Perrie 08:49 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Might well be somewhere into next week eurusd to relax back around 1.4000 or so

Syd .. 08:45 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
$/yen, important top in place (or nearly)...
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/fxa-technical-commentary/2007-10-17.html

The Netherlands Purk 08:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Loonie is trying to find a bottom here, just watch the 9783 and its 20 pips....
On the other side we have 9825.

Alaska Moon 08:38 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 08:30 GMT October 17, 2007
=======
I don't trade AUD/JPY much. I trade USD/JPY more. It pays if I am long that pair. I just trade normal and consider the interest as "free money". I am not a carry trader.
If I short USD/JPY I have to pay interest....
You should have a list somewhere on your platform which tell you how much interest you earn/have to pay on all pairs...
Good luck... It is 12.36 here...midnight... I am shuting down and going to bed..
Good luck to you
Moon

Melbourne Qindex 08:37 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Resistance at 0.9077

Daily Directional Indicator : 0.8645* - 0.8646* - (0.8813) - (0.8864) - 0.8890 - 0.8945

Daily Cycle Pivot Center : 0.8890 - 0.8945

3-Day Cycle Pivot Center : 0.8645* - 0.8646*

Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (0.8813) - (0.8864)

Remarks : The market momentum is strong when it is above the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.8864 and speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 0.8945. Projected resistant points are located at 0.8935 and 0.9077. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.8813 and speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.8793.


Upside Targeting Points : 0.9007 and 0.9048
 
Downside Targeting Points : 0.8773 and 0.8806

Morristown GG 08:30 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Moon, Thanks again - I've never actually spoken with a Carry trader about the mechanics. It sounds like rather than having to open a bank acct in Australia, traders can deposit the yen into like an AUD Money Market that pays interest, and is quickly liquid just like a Forex acct. Most platforms I've seen for us smaller retailers, don't offer the interest.
With your positions in AUD, did the recent unwind or correction cause you to liquidate? or did you just tough it out, and try to support the AUD where possible - Do you think big funds are defending any further drop below say the 4 hr avg at about 102.60?

Alaska Moon 08:19 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 07:26 GMT October 17, 2007
---------
Yes....I don't trade just for carry.....But when I go long
AUD/JPY I earn interest.....
I use 2 different platforms and they pay different interest...
Moon

Melbourne Qindex 08:15 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : After consolidating within the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.8813 - 0.8864, the market is trying to tackle resistant barriers at 0.8887 and 0.8916.

Morristown GG 08:14 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Moon, Thanks - So you are a Carry Trader, you borrow Yen benefiting from leveraged margin acct, and then you invest in high yeild AUD by placing the money into an account or buying AUD notes? Is that right? Thanks again. G

London NYAM 08:11 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
well that was quick g/j hit 237.56 pretty close to the 23.6% min retrace at 236.58. Now it remains to be seen if GU can take the pressure comming out of UJ strength.

HK 08:09 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Indian stock index trims losses to 1.5 pct only.

Mkt needs something bigger to trigger another around of carry trade unwind.

IMHO, this time is different from last Aug because the Fed is willing to cut rate to support the mkt.

Syd .. 08:05 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
MPC Minutes May Point To Easing Bias

Alaska Moon 08:05 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 07:26 GMT October 17, 2007
========
I can only use US$ to talk about carry as that is my platform base currency...
Using AUD/JPY I receive $16.40 per day. Right now AUD/JPY is 103.36. If it moves against me to 102.36 that is 100 pips...
value = $800.00. As you can see....a 100 pip move against you will wipe out 2 months interest...
I hope this helps...
In your example that move you had was 1000 pips.....
Moon

jkt rick 08:05 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PEC andras,

this is not an unwind, just a correction for new highs on aud.

Morristown GG 08:04 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR, Interesting - So they borrow say 50 billion in yen, - tying up only 5 billion in capital, use the money to buy back junky CDOs, short term paper etc. just so they can conceal the lower value and protect the rest of their balance sheet holdings (and reserve capital) from further deflation. That would essentially lock up those worthless securities in the safe. I guess the dollars go into circulation through the bailed out Hedge Funds etc. Can you take it from there? and Correct my understanding? Thanks, G

Syd .. 07:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
UBS's risk aversion index reading has moved to 0.58, from 0.47 Tuesday, indicating higher risk aversion. The bank says the move was mainly reflected in increasing cross-market volatilities, with equities the key driver. "Hence (equities) remain key in evaluating risk sentiment for now," bank adds.

Pecs Andras 07:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD rallying some 60 pips in 30 minutes in the carry unwind environment?
What is going on here?

Syd .. 07:47 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Higher Dollar is the best way to combat the speculators in the Oil market

Syd .. 07:43 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Bob Parker Credit Suisse Euro the most overvalued currency in the world

Gen dk 07:40 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 07:39 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
As long as japanese rates stay at surrealistic low level of 0.50 % with food and energy prices rising to new records no way carry will unwind . Paulson is big fan of carry and I would not be surprised if at least a part of the new $ 100 billion would be financed by yen carries to reduce interest rate costs .

Syd .. 07:35 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Tuesday's risk-reduction theme continued into the night with the funding currencies, especially JPY, coming out on top. Weaker equities and the ongoing worries over Iraq/Turkey tension, coupled with building jitters ahead of this weekend's G7 meeting has seen EUR/JPY drop over 300 sen this week. Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones says the break of the medium-term uptrend at 165.11 exposes the 20 DMA key support of 164.39, below here risk opens toward the 160.94-65 (55 and 200 DMA). Much the same story for USD/JPY, interim support comes in at 116.11 (25 DMA), break here opens risk toward 114.29. USD/JPY trades at 116.37, EUR/JPY at 164.85.

Syd .. 07:33 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Forex Focus: Carry Trades Falling From Favor, Again
Lena Komileva, group G7 economist with international brokers Tullett Prebon in London, noted the fresh flight-to-quality that helped to push the price of gold over $760 an ounce mark.

"We are far from the end of the credit crunch story," she said.

"Profit-taking is sweeping through the markets following the strong trends last month," said Phil Roberts, a technical analyst with Barclays Capital in London.

For the last few weeks, as risk appetite has recovered and global equity markets have pushed ahead, carry trades have returned, with investors selling the yen in favor of higher-yielders.

This suggestion that normality has returned after the turmoil of the summer was certainly being promoted by officials, with Bernanke pointing to the improvement in credit market conditions since the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points last month.

However, in a speech Monday, Bernanke also noted that conditions in the mortgage market remain difficult and hinted at the possible need for another cut in interest rates.

This came just as Citigroup reported a sharp fall in third-quarter earnings and warned that fallout from the credit crunch could well influence fourth-quarter numbers too.

This immediately braced investors for more bad news from other U.S. banks due to release their earnings and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nikkei tumbling as investors shied sway once again from risky assets.

"The release of these and other reports over the near term suggest some downside risks to the running of yen carry trades," warned Lee Hardman, a currency economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London.

The shift in earnings prospects was immediately reflected in global risk appetite measures. UBS reported a distinct rebound in its Risk Aversion Index after weeks of nearly steady improvement that had taken risk appetite back to levels not seen for three months.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, two high-yielding currencies that had been soaring in recent weeks, were battered as investors once again retreated.

A strong rise in crude prices, taking futures over $87 a barrel for the first time, added to market concerns.

As far as the dollar is concerned, higher energy prices not only pose a risk to U.S. consumer activity but they could make it more difficult for the Fed to cut rates again given the impact on inflation.
Dow Jones

Hong Kong Ahe 07:32 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 07:26 GMT - Hi GG, They dont have sophicated Math equations. Otherwise they woundn't sublime one after another. GLGT. ;)

jkt rick 07:30 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
indian fm p chidambaram gets a blasting and now he says no plans to ban PN. in the past weeks he shows nervousness over the stock market bubble, when the market falls he gets nervous and says another thing, what does he really want?

Syd .. 07:29 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 07:26 GMT sorry but a bit too deep for me this time of the day cheers

madrid mm 07:28 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
fwiw it might be time for a change and move to commodities ?!?!? 8-)

Commodity Traders Drive Wall Street Hiring Amid Credit Shakeout
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and BNP Paribas SA say oil, wheat and metals traders are Wall Street's hottest commodities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ausWiwNk8kWY&refer=home

Morristown GG 07:26 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd, and Sydney ACC, Question about the math Carry investors use to decide when to liquidate.
I'm looking into how a drop in currency value offsets the interest differential. So say for a 100,000 position in a Carry currency paying a difference of 7% per year. (assuming no leverage? or is there - borrowing 100,000 yen on margin? ) That would equate to $19.00 or, at 116.Y/D 2,204 Yen per day interest. A drop in value in say AUD/YEN, from 112 to 102 or 9% x 100,000 or 9,000 Yen in value, would equate to to $77.58. loss over those couple of days. Does that sound right? Now assuming so, depending on how much profit is in their account, if they borrowed the yen on margin, that loss could put pressure on the margin acct. At some point the big funds who have been long AUD and NZD for even years now, will want to take profit and avoid further losses.
I would appreciate a bit more comment on this - hope its not off topic too much, but with Carry so critical, ....

London NYAM 07:24 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
KL MY 07:04 GMT October 17, 2007 // i am looking for a bounce going into ny and accelerating into ny trading hours. uj must stay above 115.87 for it to work. g/j should get around to 237.60 area if so.

Syd .. 07:17 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Carry Trades At Risk


0715 GMT [Dow Jones] With global financial markets still far from normal and the upcoming G7 meeting injecting more uncertainty, risk appetite may suffer and the carry trades come under pressure.

Berlin MK 07:15 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
London, sorry, but this is what i see and my Trading is for a longer Term 1-3 Day

Happy Trading

Hong Kong Ahe 07:14 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Cant help myself, LOLROTF. Par, your humour always makes those nervous traders a great time of felicity.

Syd .. 07:14 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD:
bears fighting back, look to be gunning for the 0.8770 support.
The bears are fighting back and are gunning for the 0.8770 support. If it snaps then a full fledged correction lower should follow with 0.8704, 0.8607 and as far as the 0.8487 level looking reachable
fxstreet

Syd .. 07:10 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Spain Fin Min Sees Downside Risk To GDP Forecasts

KL MY 07:04 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, any comment on gbp jpy and eur jpy intraday?, thanks a lot

London NYAM 07:04 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Berlin MK 06:57 GMT October 17, 2007// hey yesterday it was fading my gbp long move, today you counter my u/j long. Did I say something wrong or am I your contrarian indicator?
Just kidding good luck! and good trades!

Morristown GG 07:01 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Geneva, Thanks, Now I see what you are seeing - Non-Commercial is anticipating the turn around, which the Commercial has not yet reflected - as it is still maybe overshooting the pivot. Very interesting tool.
Seems to be reinforced by others looking for the Dollar to strengthen pre G-7.

Frankfurt Hess 07:01 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Berlin MK 06:57 GMT October 17, 2007
Zieg...Heil!...zieg ..heil!

PAR 07:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Why buy EUR with big strikes in France and Germany ( the biggest european economies ) which will disrupt economic life announced for tomorrow . Maybe a tip for the japanese , arrange some strikes to weaken the yen . Lol.

Syd .. 06:59 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
UK retail diesel prices over £1.00 per litre at petrol stations.

Berlin MK 06:57 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Short USD-JPY 116.45 Target 115

Geneva 06:55 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 06:29 GMT October 17, 2007

Those numbers are Non Commercial Long vs short, as you can see the Non Commercial are extrmly long cad right now. In the other hand the commercail are extrimly short Canada, thats what you see before a reversal! It could be a corection, but you should see some rally to come.

--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF CAD 100,000) OPEN INTEREST: 157,628
COMMITMENTS
99,617 16,616 2,047 20,303 119,915

PAR 06:46 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hearing rumors that both core and headline Us inflation figures later today may be dramatically lower than expected mainly due to cheaper electronics , computers and telephones more than ofsetting rising food and energy prices .

London NYAM 06:44 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy again after being stopped out for -55p
116.37 stop 115.86 target again 118+

Syd .. 06:42 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 06:36 merde

Syd 06:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
According to Clifford Bennett Analyst Expect the Yen carry trade to continue to be unwound by major players, the New Zealand dollar the outlook is not good with no further rate hikes in New Zealand

PAR 06:36 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
As of tonigth France will have its biggest strike since 1995 . Countries traffic will almost come to a standstill .

Syd .. 06:34 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Alarm As Credit Crunch Hits Homeowners
New evidence has emerged of Britain's mounting debt crisis - with more than a million households using credit cards to pay their rent or mortgages in the past year.


http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-1288686,00.html

PAR 06:32 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Kampo selling japanese shares and buying japanese bonds in a coordinated effort to weaken the yen . In France as from 8 p.m. general strike of public transportation against Sarkozy s reforms plans . Black thursday for french traffic expected.

Morristown GG 06:29 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Geneva, Those numbers on your post: Geneva 04:37 GMT
were open interest in Futures? Longs and shorts look balanced - please elaborate a bit.
Syd, Zeus, I'm up watching AUD/YEN - been playing the unwind last couple days. Hoping to see a break through the Aug. 17 - Oct 18 4 hr at 102.60 where there may be some large fund sell orders waiting. Have to keep eye on Euro/Yen at the same time, but seems to be a lot of pre G7 pressure on Euro, so lot of factors aligning for a continued unwind.

Syd .. 06:29 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
China's central bank plans to absorb funds in the form of special deposits from city commercial banks and credit cooperatives, bank and credit-cooperative officials said Wednesday, reviving a long-abandoned tool to curb excess liquidity in the financial system. The People's Bank of China has requested selected city commercial banks and credit cooperatives to place money with the central bank as special deposits, said the officials.
An official at the PBOC's news office declined to comment.

Melbourne Qindex 06:28 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards 234.39

Daily Directional Indicator : 232.38* - 233.38* - 236.84 - 237.00 - (238.64) - (240.44)

Daily Cycle Pivot Center : 236.84 - 237.00

3-Day Cycle Pivot Center : 232.38* - 233.38*

Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (238.64) - (240.44)

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is below the daily cycle pivot center at 236.84 and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 235.50.

Upside Targeting Points : 238.42 and 238.64
 
Downside Targeting Points : 231.11 and 233.57


Daily Cycle (237.17) : ... 231.36 - 232.27* - 233.18 - 233.64 // 234.10 - 234.55 - 235.01 - 235.47 - 235.92* - 236.38 - [236.84] - 237.29 - 237.75* - 238.21 - 238.66 - 239.12 - 239.57* // 240.03 - 240.49 - 241.40* - 242.31 ...

Syd .. 06:28 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
DJ CHARTING MARKETS: Nikkei 225 Vulnerable To Lower Move

Sydney ACC 06:28 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 03:46 GMT October 17, 2007
I am strating to feel we may have a significant retracement in AUD/USD. By my calculations I can see it going back to 0.8540, especially if we can get some USD strength against EUR and GBP as well.

madrid mm 06:23 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
* India's Sensex opens down 5.3%, then extends falls to 7.91% pr 1,507.71pts to 17,544.15, before hitting circuit down and will be shut for 1 hour, trimming losses to -6.8% after the 1 hour close.

* Indian Finmin Ralaniappan Chidambaram says SEBI proposals are part of steps taken to moderate capital inflows. SEBI steps are necessary and good in the interest of investors an markets.

* Liberal Leader Stephane Dion says he will evaluate the government policy speech and then react. Says Canadian does not want third elections in 3 years. Canadian opposition parties Quebecois leader says it would vote against the minority Conservative Government policy speech, which the Parliament must back or an early election will be called. New Democratic Party says it would also vote again.

* WSJ : A planned king-size investment pool to acquire mortgage assets and bolster sputtering credit markets is gaining participants, despite hesitation from some banks and securities firms about joining the effort. The three lead banks, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America, are aiming to round up commitments totaling at least $80b to make the plan fly.

* Australian Treasurer Peter Costello says high AUD hurts exporters and cuts their overseas profits.

* LDP Policy Chief (Fmr MoF) Sadakazu Tanigaki says consumption tax may be used to fund pensions. Restates Govt goal to balance budget by FY2011, need to examine revenues to balance budget.

* Japan tertiary sector index for August +1.3%m/m - METI.

* Choppy and nervous session in Asia, as JPY carry trades continued to be unwound on risk aversion on back of global stock losses, and with EUR/JPY nervous ahead of G7 on any FX talks.

* USD/JPY extends losses in late Asia trading, hitting 2 week lows 116.19 from 116.50-55, and below the morning "first round" lows of 116.34, on renewed JPY carry trades unwinding after Nikkei and Asian stock markets come under further waves of selling on the sharp losses in India stocks, triggering fears of more contagion global stock losses.

India's Sensex opened down 5.3%, then 7.91% before circuit down for 1 hour, and erasing some losses after at 6.83%.

For the morning session, large Japanese custodian bank and large securities houses, US banks were huge sellers of USD/JPY at fixing today - could be linked to JPY repatriation, putting pressure on USD/JPY from 116.70-80, after earlier bouts of buying to 117.07 saw good selling from US investment houses and the Japanese houses.

The good Japanese names, with large US investment houses, investment banks, funds, big German have been very good sellers of NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD for today's session on back of JPY carry unwind, pushing AUD toward day lows of 0.8828, and NZD to day lows of 0.7410, though still of yesterday's 2-week lows.

Russians, East Europeans names sold GBP/JPY, pushing it to 2-wk lows of 235.95. Cross/JPY remains nervous for any further stock losses, eye India, Europe, US stocks, Turkey+Iraq+PKK,Oil, Gold prices. CAD could fall on any political uncertainty over govt policy.

Nikkei off 2-week lows of 16,795, -217pts or 1.27% at 16,920. JGBs firmer, 10-yr yield -0.050% at 1.645%.

Crude oil at $87.54 off all time high $88.20, eye Turkey/Iraq.

Gold off 28-yr highs $766.60 now $757.

madrid mm 06:22 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS ...you are right !!
gl/gt

Syd .. 06:17 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Japanese machine tool orders in September rose a revised 16.3% on year to Y142 billion, the Japan Machine Tool Builders Association said Wednesday.

That was better than preliminary data released a week ago showing a 15.9% on-year rise and marks the ninth straight month of increases.

USA Zeus 06:16 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:00 GMT October 17, 2007
Maybe they'll finally figure that out?

Happy Day!

London 06:02 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:57 ok tk you

Melbourne Qindex 06:01 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards 234.38


The market is under pressure when it is below 238.24. The current expected trading ranges are 234.39 - 235.81 - 237.23.

madrid mm 06:00 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Hello hello FX Jedi 8-)

“Once you replace negative thoughts with positive ones, you'll start having positive results.” - Willie Nelson quotes (American country western singer)

Melbourne Qindex 05:57 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
London .. 05:53 GMT - AUD/USD : I will post it after I finish with GBP/JPY. In the mean time you can get a general idea form my monthly cycle chart for AUD/USD at qindex.com/aud.html

Syd .. 05:57 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD hammered along with other high yielders as investors exit risky bets, with liquidation of yen-funded carry trades gaining momentum; Bank of NZ FX strategist Danica Hampton says comments from Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Shinohara, who reportedly said "Europeans have expressed concern about the EUR" appear to have triggered the carry trade liquidation. Weaker U.S. stocks, more bad news on U.S. housing, record high oil prices also heighten risk-aversion.

Syd .. 05:55 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Surging global oil prices present stagflation risks for NZ economy, says Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibb

Syd .. 05:54 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Spot gold may correct short-term on fresh wave of risk reduction pressuring global equity markets, high-yielding currencies, says Westpac Bank chief currency strategist Robert Rennie; "We could see softer price action back down towards the low $740s. I'm kind of surprised we haven't seen it already." Notes weakness in equity markets likely reflection that markets had swung from being overly pessimistic about credit crisis in August, September to nearly excessively optimistic in short period of time, despite mixed economic data. Adds, gold fell around $30 in August credit crisis "meltdown," suggesting it's unlikely to escape latest risk reduction selloff if it continues.

London .. 05:53 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex can you give me your support level or target for the AUD please

Syd .. 05:38 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
The yen rose against the dollar and the euro in Asia Wednesday after a plunge in Indian share prices sparked buying of the Japanese currency amid renewed risk aversion.

Weakness in other Asian markets also supported the yen, which has strengthened recently when risk aversion increases. Tokyo traders said the U.S. currency could fall below Y115.00 from around Y116.30 at 0530 GMT, if Asian shares remain weak.

The euro, meanwhile, may fall to around Y163.00, traders said.
The fall came as investors reacted to a plan by the capital markets regulator - the Securities and Exchange Board of India - to restrict the issue of participatory notes to overseas investors.

The plan spurred worries that a downturn in Indian stocks will weigh on Asian equity markets across the board. That prompted short-term investors to unwind yen carry trades, in which investors borrow funds in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets denominated in other currencies.

"Basically, it's still difficult to predict what will happen in emerging countries like India," said Tsutomu Soma, senior trader at Okasan Securities. "Many players, therefore, can't help but adjust their assets to avoid further risks once something happens in such countries."

Hyderabad Srini 05:33 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Indian markets opened again after 1 hr close...

ldn 05:32 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
talk CNBC watch China

Syd .. 05:25 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   

Nicole Elliott, technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank Limited, takes a look at the charts for the pound verses the yen, the euro verses the Swiss franc and the Norwegian krona verses the yen. CNBC's Guy Johnson reports.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=563148966&play=1

HK [email protected] 05:23 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
No need to be a genius to see that if 115.50 gives way, the short term triangle on the USD/JPY is a goner, and may not serve any more as a reversal pattern. and sell USD/JPY will intensify and may we view some galloping price moves.

Syd .. 05:21 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
DJ India Fin Min:SEBI Steps To Moderate Capital Inflows

USA Zeus 05:20 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Looks like clockwork around the globe.

Melbourne Qindex 05:20 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Heading Towards 2.0188

Daily Directional Indicator : 2.0179 - 2.0298 - (2.0306) - 2.0331* - 2.0530* - (2.0565)

Daily Cycle Pivot Center : 2.0179 - 2.0298

3-Day Cycle Pivot Center : 2.0331* - 2.0530*

Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (2.0306) - (2.0565)

Remarks : The market momentum is under pressure when it is below the 3-day cycle pivot center at 2.0331* and speculative selling interest will increase when the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 2.0306. The odds are good that the market will head for 2.0179 - 2.0188 targeting range.

Upside Targeting Points : 2.0356 and 2.0422

Downside Targeting Points : 2.0134 and 2.0174

Syd .. 05:17 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
: Nikkei Dn 1.3%; May Fall More On India Mkt Halt

Syd .. 05:16 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Was Watching CNBC Squawk Box overnight from the USA and this guy was talking to Joe on the programe - the Title was The Aussie Enron?
found this article which is old but it seems as if its not going away fast - seems as it put it have nothing but credit ratings to back up their huge debt and nobody realizes as they are not being monitered.......


Macquarie Bank model cannot last: Chanos

Jim Chanos was the first big US investor to expose Enron as a fraud.

Tonight, he's told PM why he thinks that Macquarie Bank is a 'house of cards'.

Macquarie's staff have made billions by buying assets around the world and spinning them off into funds and trusts controlled by the bank. The bank collects fees all along the line.

But Mr Chanos says this economic model can't last. His key concern is that the Macquarie Bank funds pay their shareholders not out of income they earn, but from borrowed money.

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1938221.htm

Syd .. 05:14 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY could fall to 163 on continued risk reduction by fund players, domestic investors, leading to weaker JPY crosses, says trader at major Japanese bank. Amid weakness in Asian bourses, concerns India stocks may tumble later on SEBI's proposed measures to restrict issue of participatory notes to overseas investors adding to risk reduction moves

Syd .. 05:13 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY tumble along with other JPY crosses on rumors of large AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY sell orders by fund players, says trader at major Japanese bank; stock market weakness also weighing on sentiment. Adds USD/JPY "fall below 116.50 may initiate stronger downward momentum

Melbourne Qindex 05:12 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY :  : The current expected trading ranges from the monthly cycle projected series are 112.17* - 112.66 - 113.15 - 113.64 - 114.13* - 114.62 - [115.11] - 115.60 - 116.09* - 116.58 - 117.07.

USA Zeus 05:04 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Covered 1/3 Dec gold remaining short from 771.90 @ 761.80 for +10.10

Great Trades!

Geneva 04:37 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
CANADIAN DOLLAR |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL |
LONG | SHORT || --
(CONTRACTS OF CAD 100,000)

99,617 16,616

Almost NO long remain!, It is a one way bet.

GL

Hyderabad Srini 04:35 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Indian stock markets just crashed..down 10% in just 5 minutes after opening..

Geneva 04:30 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
MLT PA 20:19 GMT October 16, 2007

I am aware that the euro the 1995 top is a syntetic one, trust me I was there as a trader, but people still look on it!

It is true that I was calling for a dollar bottom many time, It every time that I called it bottom and rally nicly but couldn't made a mulitmonth bottom yet, not easy to cought a long term bottom.

The dollar is we no dought still on the attack, but I think that against the major it is almost done, maybe done! We can very well see the dollar keep droping against all exotique and the JPY, and rising against the Euro.

You might see 1.50, but before you will have 20 big figures correction.

GL

denver jake 04:26 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 15:08 GMT October 16, 2007
euro showing some resiliancy among the risk aversion theme. 1.4140 and finally 1.4090 are key levels. got a long here @ 1.4154 stop at 1.4139 for observation

out +10, looks down vs $$$. eur.gbp up, eur.chf down.

Syd .. 03:46 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 03:44 I know the feeling , but may nip up above the figure agree best see what Europe get up to :-))

Sydney ACC 03:44 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 02:28 GMT October 17, 2007
A good level was 0.8895 but I would rather wait another couple of hours until Europe starts trading. Nothing done yet.
Too nervous.

toronto Dr Unken Katt 03:41 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose for a third day against the dollar, its longest winning streak in two months, as a decline in Asian stocks prompted investors to sell higher- yielding currencies bought with loans in Japan.

The Japanese yen advanced versus all 16 of the most-active currencies as investors reduced so-called carry trades before the Group of Seven meeting on Oct. 19. European officials have expressed concern about the weakness of the yen against the euro, a Japanese Finance Ministry official, who asked not to be named, said yesterday.

``The yen may extend gains,'' said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd. ``Falling stocks are hurting appetite for carry trades and giving the yen a boost. Traders are reluctant to sell the yen before the G-7.''

Japan's currency rose to 116.44 per dollar

Makassar Alimin 03:28 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
euro looks heavy on daily again, maybe testing 1.40 line is the agenda

toronto Dr Unken Katt 03:23 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
its not that , theres people who scalp and the others who play longer term, from my experience the latter ones have better chance to make consistently monia

Alaska Moon 03:05 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt 02:56 GMT October 17, 2007
------
It just seems that we have a heck of a lot more swings..maybe 10 - 15 pips, and then a quick retrace.
To see it good, a trader must look at a short term chart...
15 minute or shorter.
I think these big funds, Hecge or whatever, are playing real big money for short pips a lot more than a few years ago. This alone makes it hard to have a close stop.....
Moon

toronto Dr Unken Katt 02:56 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Moon i ve no idea what r u talkin about?

Alaska Moon 02:36 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
I think today is a normal Asian session, showing the change that the forex market has changed over the last few years....
I have only been trading live for 4 1/2 years, but it seems a lot harder now than when I started.
Here is my take of the problem...You can look back for 2 or 3 years and you will see that we now have a lot of "black box" trading, big money playing short pips, causing the market to look like today. It seems that some of these big players are trading for as little as 5 pips.
I may be completely wrong on this, but it is my opinion that trading fored is a lot harder than 3 years ago..
As a side note, I have been trading stock for the last 2 years and feel it is a LOT easier to make money consistently in stock.
Just my opinion.....
Moon

Syd .. 02:28 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:18 btw where will you short it ??

Syd .. 02:27 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:18 the selling seems to be coming from the yen side also, and it looks like we may have made that top a little on the early side unless as you say the CPI comes in strong , but it could be a disappointment as the UK and NZ have been giving little reason to hike especially with the Election even though some banks are wishing it Wespac for one , its quite a difficult trade at the moment , ok appreciate that take care...

Sydney ACC 02:18 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 00:58 GMT October 17, 2007
For the last couple of months, even when the AUD went down against USD my stratgey was to buy AUD on the dips and take profits within the day. Overall I thought AUD would break the previous high and get to 93 US cents.
Last night's fall from 90 cents surprised me I thought it would rally up. It didn't of course.
For now I think its a sell the rallies albeit with smaller amounts.
I'm not convinced yet that the upward trend of the last six weeks has finished. Although there's not that much more upside to come on top of the recent highs.
My theory had been we would see a firm AUD/USD for another month then it would turn down after that. Getting the trend right is hard enough at times and often the timing is even more difficult however.
Each of the rallies over the last 15 hours has been shallower which doesn't give much confidence to the longs.
We still have next weeks CPI figure and depending on what is published sentiment could harden for another interest rate increase.
Food prices are still rising and shortages are starting to appear in some staples. I read yesterday butter is in short supply and restaurants are being rationed.
There you have it small possies dealt from the short side.

Morristown GG 02:09 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, Duly noted. Lest you get too worried, I was on the fence, but biased for a continuation downward tonight. I recognize my own predisposition toward the unwinding, but trying to force myself to be more balanced. Thats really what I mean, so I put a very small position on, bought AUD/YEN and then had tight stops, so stopped out. Reevaluating now
for the next move. Seems to want to continue to unwind. Thanks for your warnings. Agree that they are a good reminder for everyone. I do want to follow my own plan and then manage it. - G

isr jweb 01:06 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
zeus - do you see the end of the short eur usd gbpusd - are you going long now?

Syd .. 00:58 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC doyou have a very short term view on Aud a bit whippy here

Stockholm za 00:48 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   

London NYAM >>>
GVI is one of the biggest forex universities that exist today.
And every year there are hundreds of new students that get enrol
But only a minor few about 10 that graduate every year.
Even though each student rearranges the list to their own weakness or strength the achievement takes grate discipline and focus..

Syd .. 00:40 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Australia's leading index of economy grew at annualized 5.6% in August, up from 5.3% in July. Westpac says strong outcome endorses government's GDP forecast upgrade to 4.25% from 3.75% this week, strengthens view rates set to rise, with 2 hikes in pipeline by mid-2008

USA Zeus 00:29 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
We forgot to add fortitude, conviction and giant teflon brass balls to that list. LOL!

Ok- Keep selling EUR/USD and GBP/USD for fantastic trades.

Happy Day!

London NYAM 00:27 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
and to prove my point:
London NYAM 22:41 GMT October 16, 2007
long g/j again 237.63 targeting 238.67 stop 237.17
stopped for -46p
still in with half from 237.32

tokyo ginko 00:26 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
anyone seeing usd/jpy touching 116 this week ?

London NYAM 00:17 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 00:08// wise words. if only it were that easy to stick by those principles...happy trades to you. off to bed limit ad usdjpy long 116.78 stop same.237.32 added long stop for second half at 236.84
gnight.

Stockholm za 00:08 GMT October 17, 2007 Reply   

London NYAM 23:55 >> That has to be the best post of the day !! lol.
At least you are honest..
This is what cbot had to say on the subject
Successful traders . . .
• Are mentally flexible—they see multiple choices in any context.
• Make choices based on their own analysis and research.
• Understand the risk associated with each choice they make.
• Continually reassess the risks inherent in each choice they've made while the market is constantly bombarded with new information.
• Understand markets, their opponents, and themselves.
• Are life-long students of the market and themselves.
• Are open-minded and perpetually inquisitive. …
Happy trades.....

 




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