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Forex Forum Archive for 10/18/2007

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Gen dk 23:55 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

VAIL MC 23:28 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
BTW, stopped out of GBPUSD short at 2.0455, still short GBPJPY.

USA Zeus 23:15 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Vail MC 22:39 GMT October 18, 2007
Thanks MC your opinions are more valuable than many here know. :-)


denver jake 22:02 GMT October 18, 2007
jake- Must be miscommunication here. My point was in reference to trading size NOT leverage. If leverage is an issue to execute trades at more than one price let alone multiple securities or pairs etc then one simply does not have enough capital.

GT!

Philadelphia Caba 22:56 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
LDN 10:24 GMT October 18, 2007
Toronto MRC 10:21 GMT October 18, 2007
Yeap..res. for the [email protected] for the pair 9683...

How're you doing Martin? Still in business?

Vail MC 22:39 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, my thoughts are that you can make all sorts of arguments why the dollar should weaken. A couple of years ago it was a massive current account deficit. All of a sudden you don't hear about it anymore. I think it makes for interesting points for people to speak like they know what they are talking about but at the end of the day there is no place like USA for safety. That being said I only trade a shorter term model where none of that matters. You just have some stronger views than most here and I enjoy your enthusiasm.

denver jake 22:02 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
If one cannot "afford" to enter at multiple points instead of single point of entry "pick and pray" then you simply should not be trading. If a single price "pick and pray" entry level is your method then the results will be just the same. You simply do not have enough capital to trade. Sad but true.

That, Zeus, is just not true. Any "trader" can trade the way you reference. It is simply about leverage. Most platforms offer as little as $5000 positions (that is 1/2 of a mini lot). It is not about capital rather one's mental approach to the foreign exchange market.
I used to build custom decks when I could handle 100 degree days in the Texas heat all day. I view the foreign exchange market as an incredible powerful tool. In the right hands it can build something beautiful. In the wrong hands it can turn someone into a one legged, 7 fingered, one eyed freak. :)

nj jf 21:51 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
luckily theres a daily low and high and all traders have the ability to decipher them in their own way using whatever m/m approach works for them. personally i prefer the stealth bomber approach to a b-52 but i must say often the target ends up the same.

London NYAM 21:33 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:25//I dont do it on high volatilty/spread pairs like g/j. I find there isnt enough time tto work out the trade plan and mm. If i trade G/J thats all i will do down to the minute bars and have my clusters and already on the chart. breaking from a second cluster i my exit unless there is an op for a small pull back.
Good to know there are others trading this way. cheers!

USA Zeus 21:26 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Vail MC 21:15 GMT October 18, 2007
Hi MC. To some degree yes but not completely. I do believe that the USD weakness has been cyclical not structural but that is of course not known until printed in the history books.

What is your valuable thought?

USA BAY 21:25 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

I do the same as well when sometimes bottom picking or top is difficult but based on the ew or chart it seems to be at certain point I also build positions particularly for pairs like gbp/jpy anf eur/nzd.

Vail MC 21:15 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Hi Zeus, are you trading a fundamental view with your USD strength call?

London NYAM 21:12 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 20:58//FWIW// I don’t use a ‘position building’ technique all thetime, but on some occasions I do. Here’s where I’ve found it helps:
If I’ve found that monthly/weekly/daily and 4hr charts are indicating a top or bottom is close at hand (pattern wise and this means EW and momentum checks on the waves), and if sentiment in news and in forum-space seems complacently attached to the inevitable repetition of a trend, and Fibonacci targets are clustered together nearby. If all these things appear, then I will choose fib turn points/extensions as entry levels to contra a major trend. I will build only after deciding when the game plan is wrong in advance and knowing that point where I must call it quits and the next major cluster of fib points lies. So I know my far-out stop loss. Then I calculate how much I’m willing to lose on the trade. From there I set my contra limit orders and scale them up as we approach my stop level. Usually I will have 3 max 4 entry points with weightings of 1x 1x 2x and 3x. If we get to my third entry I will scale back on any pullback lowering my risk usually by 1x or 2x if the pull back is large. if the pattern developing fails to exhibit reversal characteristics i may also exitthe entire trade early limiting my loss.
I will also use this strategy if I believe a trend is incomplete and has another leg by scaling in at fib correction levels. Anyway, it isn’t always a bad idea IMHO.

USA Zeus 21:08 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Well I too feel the sobering reason to add a penny or two here for some odd reason.

There are a million ways to make or lose a million. One of the worst that I know is to see all these guys try and decide a single point of entry for a trade unless it is a scalp.

Otherwise it may be foolish to think that one can pinpoint the exact reversal point to go "all in" at one single price. Of course chasing a losing trade is bad and holding losing trades will kill your account.

Building a position within a limit zone for a potential reversal followed by correctly placing stops once allocated is very different.

If one cannot "afford" to enter at multiple points instead of single point of entry "pick and pray" then you simply should not be trading. If a single price "pick and pray" entry level is your method then the results will be just the same. You simply do not have enough capital to trade. Sad but true.

Morristown GG 20:59 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, I was thinking about you all day after reading your posts last night. I did force myself to hedge my usual unwind play with a dollar positive carry position, but stopped out quickly. I'm now thinking that Trichet and others are wanting to keep the dollar low so they can yell louder tomorrow at the meeting. They don't want to soften the situation. So dollar may not strengthen until after their statements.

Alaska Moon 20:58 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
While the forum is not so busy...I feel obligated to post this info for the benefit of newer traders....Remember, you cannot
control the "gain" of a trade, but you CAN control the loss.
If you can learn how to place your stops, manage your money, you will be a lot closer to sucess !!!
Some traders use a method of "building a position", add to a trade which is moving against them. It will surprise you how long you can do this before a 1000 pip move wipes you out.
I only say this because I have been humbled this way before !
There is a lot of good info on this forum, but you must be careful who you listen to....
Just my HUMBLE opinion....
Moon

USA Zeus 20:52 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 20:42 GMT October 18, 2007

Yeah Prechter still waiting for his grand supercycle selloff in the Dow. I think he has been short for the last 10,000+ Dow points since.
Anyways all techniques work and don't work- all at the same time. Am curious though about your emotionless idea. Are you saying that you "would have been...cautiosly long"? Or that you are objectively long from here with some emotional reservation? TIA

isr jweb 20:42 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
zeus. hi. i still am afraid to work on emotions, i read alot of the big guys writing about the "fifth eliot wave" bla b la bla and they were right. i would wait for another spike before throwing alot of weight onto the eur.

right now i would have been cautiosly long

USA Zeus 20:32 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Can really feel USD strength coming in here soon guys. Got the heavy brass b's on the line here.

Happy Trades!

USA Zeus 20:27 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Sorry to hear such terrible news.
Simply horrible trend on this planet with coward-like acts.

Lahore FM 20:22 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
53 infact,an unfortunate and tragic incident indeed!blame can't be easily fixed anywhere at all.there are too many possible suspects to this one.

Syd .. 20:17 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
KARACHI (AP)--Two explosions went off Thursday night near a truck carrying former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on her celebratory return to Pakistan after eight years in exile. Police and party workers said Bhutto was unhurt, but an official said there were at least 30 people killed and 100 wounded.

According to Pakistan's Geo television, as many as 35 were killed and 75 were injured, Fox News reported.

London NYAM 20:05 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:50 GMT//Glad to hear it was real. I guess the fractal aspect threw me. If there were a way to bring the two toether - a dynamic learning algorithm that could adjust to chaotic behaviour under differing time intervals......hoohoohahaha i could RULE THE Worl...oh sorry.
gl

USA Zeus 20:05 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Short Dec gold 773.20

USA Zeus 19:52 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 19:46 GMT October 18, 2007
Easy rhetorical question is to ask how much cheaper gas at the pump is in Germany and the U.K.

FW CS 19:51 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 19:46 GMT October 18, 2007
$ is down against everything not just the Euro. That is as good reason asreason as any for commodities to be up. Doesn't really matter markets make the news anyway most of the time. If crude had been down big then they would have said it was because of the US/Israeli/Palestinian peace talks or the fact that OPEC commented that this was just pure specs driving up crude.

USA Zeus 19:50 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 19:27 GMT October 18, 2007

Yeah. It is from the early-mid 90's work. Been using it to trade since completion then. It is a deductive reasoning back prop with feed forward design except that after the inputs and normalizers each layer results in polynomials that are then fed forward to the next layer of polynomials etc until the coefficient output.

Livingston nh 19:46 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
The decline of the USD against the EUR is an idiotic basis for a rise in the oil price

madrid mm 19:32 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Oil Rises Above $89 to a Record as Dollar Drops Against Euro

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $89 a barrel in New York for the first time after the U.S. dollar declined to a record low against the euro, enhancing the appeal of commodities as an investment.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0c7s0VQ._98&refer=home

Mtl JP 19:28 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
bay - I don't know. I would expect to see some buyers in 9670/50 zone. But risk management paramount imo.

London NYAM 19:27 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:08// im familiar with neural nets (used one for my masters thesis) and I'm familiar with fractals and chaos theories basic math, but im not familiar with them being used together. Is this for real or did you just make it up?


Limit order sold u/j at 115.82 while on the way home. target is 115.05 werupon i will start going long in the 11480s. stop 116.31

USA BAY 19:23 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP

Do you think the usd/cad will go up from here, or the possibility of returning to 0.96xx area is greater. tia

USA Zeus 19:17 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Will 89.78 be the high for oil today?
Man- If it is will feel like luckiest man alive. Could redefine "peak oil"! PLOL

USA Zeus 19:11 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 19:10 GMT October 18, 2007

If you read closely have limits still working. Will set stops if/when limits are filled.

Charlotte TH 19:10 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:08 GMT October 18, 2007

Do you have any stops?

USA Zeus 19:08 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 17:09 GMT October 18, 2007

No probs TH. Just read the archives. No need to look past today for healthy explanation.


London NYAM 16:31 GMT October 18, 2007
The neural net, partner

GT! :-)

USA Zeus 19:00 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Short Nov Crude oil 89.78

Mtl JP 18:53 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
california 18:44 / IF you want to go long, for risk management I would use 9705 on daily close.

The Netherlands Purk 18:49 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Long loonie here at 97329. 98 target.

LA BV 18:47 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
California. Give your rationale for buying here and ask for feedback.

california 18:44 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
is it a good time for long position in USD/CAD?

madrid mm 17:20 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
fwiw - general news

Interbank FX got fined by the NFA for $100,000 recently. Here is the link:
http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/CaseDocument.aspx?seqnum=1345

And , everyone of you should sign up for the NFA's email list so you
can see when and why brokers get in trouble. To sign up go to:
http://www.nfa.futures.org/news/subscribe.asp

Lahore FM 17:17 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
TH,just one partial long gbpusd from long ago.looking to get into new positions.

Bodrum OEE 17:17 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA 17:02 GMT October 18, 2007
BODRUM.
It is only thursday,...



It is weekend for me anyway DS.

I hope whichever way the market moves it does it in accordance to your stance.

Bye now

Charlotte TH 17:09 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus,

What is making you so bullish USD? Please excuse me if you've already stated your reasoning.

Lahore FM,

Are you holding anything or planning to take any positions?

TIA

GENEVA DS 17:02 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
BODRUM.
It is only thursday,... I will even probably be in the office tomorrow...market is at critical turning points as you see in posts... the technical side in EURUSD says overbought and turning sharp.. and the psycological point says be careful, timing might be wrong completely... so as usual... a 5 figure move is in the making next 10 days.... which way... breaks of 1.4150 or 1.4375 will tell.. good hearing from you.. good weekend

Geneva 17:02 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:56 GMT October 18, 2007

I hope your put will make Millions!

Bodrum OEE 16:57 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA

DS, I hope you are safe and sound.

good weekend

Bodrum OEE 17:07 GMT October 16, 2007

GENEVA DS 16:56 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Geneva.... thanks and for your info , bought this morning PUT 1.3500 and Call 1.5000 for 3 Month EURUSD , paid 46 pips combined for a good amount... now I can play a little better...

Geneva 16:51 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:43 GMT October 18, 2007

No problem!
Take a note-
The euro CLOSING high of 1995 is exatxly double top now!
The swissi is far a way and look as a Wedge to me.
The euro/usd is very heavy with a lot of divergence!
Every body is long Euro.
I think there is some chnce to a top here, and I play it.

Como Perrie 16:50 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
mumbling to net somewhere another third of usdjpy shts due approaching G7

GENEVA DS 16:43 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Sorry Geneva, I do apologize for my sarcastic post this afternoon, I hope you can forgive me and lets be part of the same team... FX trader... Do believe you will get it right being short EUROS up here, think we should correct a little bit ST, personally a tad short in cable... but I think still trend is up in EUR and GBP, and eventually new highs could be seen shortly after G7... lets remain flexible and make some real swiss money... all the best to you.... BTW started trading in 1979... so we have seen it all.... not always the right side unfortunately... GL GT

London NYAM 16:31 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:21 GMT October 18, 2007
Keeping in mind that EUR/USD 1.4277 is a critical quadratic polynomial fractal.
Of what?

Geneva 16:25 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 16:00 GMT October 18, 2007

Thats how I bought euros at .90s', you can check the records.
Trust me I am not new here, well before demo accounts existe.

Good luck to you:

St. Annaland Bob 16:24 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
welcome back Lahore FM, bye for now and see you later!

PAR 16:24 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Carries intact post Philly . Expect USDJPy and stock market to rally .

Lahore FM 16:21 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok FUA 16:16 GMT October 18, 2007
it is lagging after a good rise off 2.0300/20.might keep lateral trend.

USA Zeus 16:21 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Keeping in mind that EUR/USD 1.4277 is a critical quadratic polynomial fractal.

Positively,
-Z-

Bangkok FUA 16:16 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
hello fm,
any view on gbp/usd at this moment?

saopaulo cg 16:11 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
strange, i though that hitting new highs eurusd would trigger al kind of stop loss and would very easy go to 1.4350. Now, i am thinking that maybe we will end the day below 1.4281 that was the euro's high til today.

USA Zeus 16:09 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Long USD/CAD .9736

PAR 16:06 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Really surprised to see Philly weaker after big NY jump . Prices paid 40.3 vs sep 23. If that continues Bernanke has a problem .

Stockholm za 16:06 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   

Re…. Caution to all newbie’s…..
Right now this FF is a very dangerous board to be reading...
Make sure you use a sieve to sift trough the censored .
From the -1001 mistake new traders make –
This is # 741 :- Day Trading.
It is the fuel for the 95% / 5% ratio in FX...
Happy trades….

Lahore FM 16:01 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
philly at 6.8.

St. Annaland Bob 16:00 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 15:53 GMT October 18, 2007

let's check your sense of humor...no s/l or hedge level means you changed single EUR 500/- bill into USD... good luck and bother to post s/l, add or hedge levels in reasonable alert from the market action as long term trade has ready plan, right?...good luck

Geneva 15:53 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 15:43 GMT October 18, 2007

No stop or hedge for the moment!

St. Annaland Bob 15:43 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 15:42 GMT October 18, 2007

any s/l or hedge level to mention with that trade?

Geneva 15:42 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Just for the record short euro/usd @ 1.4287!

As Jay just cut off.

houston st 15:41 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   

DALLAS GEP -- if you are still around please ask Jay/John for my email and drop me a note...gl/gt.

PAR 15:41 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Hearing Philly Fed as New York empire could show dramatic jump .

USA Zeus 15:40 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:31 GMT October 18, 2007
Sorry ehat = "...heat of battle..."

USA Zeus 15:35 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
FF-USA JC 15:20 GMT October 18, 2007

Sorry- Hard to know who's who when so many swap handles every few days/weeks for some unknown reason- although I have my suspicions as to why this happens.

No less- have enjoyed the fun trades.


Well today Zeus is on the hot seat again. Guess we are to soon see some USD strength again.

Happy Day!

USA Zeus 15:31 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
NYC ET 15:11 GMT October 18, 2007
Thx for your nice words. Have they pushed higher at each pause or corrected? You make it sound as if I have not faded at tops and taken profits on corrections. There is a reason to fade now and in last several days without any significant push higher in EUR/USD and GBP/USD- quite possibly the two most overvalued currency combos.

Have been with what is now historically the trend until last bit then correctly switched to fade the tops and thinning bottoms on swings as things have stalled. Of course I started that when one reflects back and recognizes the now formed channel but could not see it at the time.

Caution when looking from right to left on charts- it says nothing about the yet to be printed future- just looks nice to know it all after the fact. It is like reading about war. Nice to study history but what will it tell us for the fate of that soldier currently in the fog of war during the ehat of battle in the trenches?

This is smth the so called trend followers miss out on. They get in after 1/3 trend already established then get out after 1/3 correction typically leaving them with 1/3 of a trend which is typically lost and then some on whiplash false channel breaks.

I think the so called trend is at or near the end. Hence the positions taken to be positioned for a massive reversal, which is where I think the risk is for those who think like they did during the great tech wreck. I know many who bought Enron, Global Crossing, Iomega (remember the Zip and Jazz drives?)
to see their accounts soar into millions from thousands then to zero. Not saying currencies are the same in terms of price but markets are markets, tulip bulbs, Enron or irrational exuberance in currencies. Market behavior of crowds is similar leaving typical views with typical results. Lest we remind that a vast majority lose in a zero sum game. Hence typical actions can only leave one with typical results- ouch!

Otherwise, please tell me now when the trend will end so we can take action.

Cheers!

FF-USA JC 15:20 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:09 GMT October 18, 2007

I dont know if you remember back in Jan-Feb when we were both Bullish the USD.......well that time has come again.........with you all the way just verbalizing it now, but I am always watching from the shadows here at GVI hearing all the great FX banter. Appreciation all around for eveyones comments and opinions. And a thanks to GVI and the people who run this great site. Enjoy the next few days and next week trading everyone it shall be volatile times. Cheers and JGD!

houston nasa 15:17 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   

NYC ET 15:11 GMT October 18, 2007 -- phone home...

The Netherlands Purk 15:16 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Sean Kelly is adding again in e/u shorts.
No bugger for me today

St. Annaland Bob 15:16 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   

dear fellow traders...let's make calls, the next 1K pips from 143000...will it be 13300 or 15300 first?...happy and safe trades!

NYC ET 15:11 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus. Don't take this as an attack but you have been saying that at each pause and they keep pushing higher. Why not just go with the trend?

Lahore FM 15:10 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GMT
16:00 PM USD Philadelphia Fed Index (OCT) expected7.0 previous 10.9

Global-View 15:10 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
We cut out that nonsense.

USA Zeus 15:09 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Not only do the EUR and GBP appear tired, so does oil, gold etc. Cautious and aggressive though. When the bear awakens and comes running out of the cave it is hungry- some things never change (or do they?)

London NYAM 15:08 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//Geneva is secretly Europe's Beirut.

melbourne DC 14:27 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:19 GMT October 18, 2007
Thanks for the post . all the best . david

Como Perrie 14:22 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
mind finger thinking...there are coupla words missing and some errors in the previous print.....if time will get to It again later...am off some..

jkt rick 14:21 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
yen and not manipulated, that will be the day......its not the low rates causing the bubbble its the manipulation of $/yen that protects the carry trades.

Imagine going to macdonalds with $10 to buy a big mac burger. the counter gal tells you, what you cant get a burger with $10, the carry trade has inflated everything....why dont you borrow some yen and come back later, so you go to your investment bank, mortgage your savings and borrow alot of yen at 0.5% and immediately buy some AUD burger, she then recommends you to buy a package meal, "buy a aud/yen burger and get a eur/yen burger free, buy some gold chocolates and an big jug of speculative oil shake,and you get a whole box of sensex at no extra cost. dont worry,its totall safe she tells you, yen can never strengthen against any currency as there are alot of japanese men working hard to make sure of that.

Melbourne Qindex 14:20 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:14 GMT - EUR/USD : The market momentum is strong and buy on dips is the preferred trading startegy.

London NYAM 14:20 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR// agree technical picture looks ripe for a rally. It may not close that way however but it should sweep shorts.

Como Perrie 14:19 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 14:10 GMT October 18, 2007


The inverse of chaos is comprehensibility. Fortunately, the two extremes can and do coexist.

Most of the short term of analysis is the not the foundation for developing a clear, long-term IT strategy so to serve as a guidepost for future decisions and risk managing. It is just longer term approaches that ultimately helping an organization move from a reactive nature to a proactive one.

So the big banks that are holding most of the orders have instructed their desks to work into a shor term netting enviroment of the orders and strike or digitial options levels, so to mantaina a chaotic envirment so to give them more time to manage out their too big and full of risks pfolios.

So in one world what your read here is most of the times just the opposite of what really happens. So most short term suggestions as the complexity is not seen, except if you are not behind such top desks - and even there they do suffer from such at the very top too - but the true mission is a long term one and apparent stability of managing the competition for the global world.

Melbourne Qindex 14:15 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 1.4310.

HK Kevin 14:14 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:31 GMT, EUR now trades above your weekly limit 1.4272 turn bullish, right?

PAR 14:13 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Expectations for the Philly Fed Index are so surealistic low that it is 90% probable that it will be better than expected and 90% certain that it will be much better than expected. This will save the carry trades and sent Us stock markets sharply higher . We will see .

melbourne DC 14:10 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:03 GMT October 18, 2007
can trouble u to elaborate ? couldn't really understand your para . sry . thx.

Melbourne Qindex 14:05 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
The market is going to consolidate around 115.53 and it is likely that the market will tackle 114.92*.

Como Perrie 14:03 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:51 GMT October 18, 2007

Think no one knows It exactly, even the top guys...they just look at the closer intraday stop levels and private options to squeeze out to make out their coupla millions a day

Melbourne Qindex 14:01 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The downward trending momentum is strong and the market is able to penetrate through the lower barrier of the weekly cycle projected series at 115.83 // 116.14*. The market is going to consolidate around 115.53 and it is likely that the market will 114.92*. The next targeting range is 113.71* - 114.32.

Weekly Cycle : 112.50* - 113.11 - 113.71* ... 114.32 - 114.92* - 115.53 - 115.83 // 116.14* - 116.44 - 116.74 - 117.04 - 117.35* - 117.65 - [117.95] - 118.26 - 118.56* - 118.86 - 119.17 - 119.47 - 119.77* // 120.08 - 120.38 - 120.98* - 121.59 ... 122.20* - 122.80 - 123.41*

melbourne DC 13:51 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
stocks bulls n yen bears must hate that BoA .. to be wacked by them twice in 3 hrs...

London Gooner 13:48 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Previous 4H bar on AUDUSD was technically bearish. High was 0.8955 -
Spot 10 pips from it. Risk of drop from here if 0.8955 holds.

USA Zeus 13:44 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:35 GMT October 18, 2007

Thanks for the kind words. Been hammering on these top ranges thinning lower a few times now. Third time could be a charm. Me thinks breaking down the lower end of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD channels is the low risk opportunity. Never know for sure in advance but then Pretty Boy Floyd has his nickname for a reason.

Smiles!

madrid jm 13:42 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
ECB pushing & pushing, now Weber: Inflation risks up since september, may need rate action. So ECB hawkish + usd weakness = eurusd up and up

Melbourne Qindex 13:41 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The center of the weekly cycle projected series is positioning at 163.49. The market was rejected from the upper barrier at 167.12* // 167.73 and it is trying to penetrate through the projected chart point at 164.70*.


Weekly Cycle : ... 156.22 - 157.43* - 158.64 - 159.25 // 159.85* - 160.46 - 161.06 - 161.67 - 162.27* - 162.88 - [163.49] - 164.09 - 164.70* - 165.30 - 165.91 - 166.52 - 167.12* // 167.73 - 168.33 - 169.54* - 170.76 ...

LDN Mahmood 13:40 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:27 GMT // Good post. Keep this up and I'll be quiet :)

USA Zeus 13:16 GMT // Watching you closely here ... above 1.4333 & 2.0555 do not tell us about averaging more... otherwise no one will believe you. Me I'm targeting USD goes down and down.

London NYAM 13:35 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Zues//Posts like these remind me why you are an enjoyable addition to the forum. Very wise neigbor.
Took out short at 115.54 think we test 115.75 50% retrace.

USA Zeus 13:27 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:18 GMT October 18, 2007

Cunning or not- all we can say is that one must accept peril for fame and fortune- smth we learned from our dear neighbor friend Floyd "Money" Mayweather.

cheers!

Melbourne Qindex 13:23 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The lower barrier of the projected series is located at 233.37 // 234.38* and a resistant point is expected at 238.42. The center of the projected series is positioning at 240.44.

 
Weekly Cycle : ... 228.32 - 230.34* - 232.36 - 233.37 // 234.38* - 235.39 - 236.40 - 237.41 - 238.42* - 239.43 - [240.44] - 241.44 - 242.45* - 243.46 - 244.47 - 245.48 - 246.49* // 247.50 - 248.51 - 250.53* - 252.55 ...

Hong Kong YH 13:19 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:15 GMT October 18, 2007

You are right. There is a hand behind the curtain. US stocks cannot drop too much.

London NYAM 13:18 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus// i think theres a good chance you will get those high bids filled before the night is out. Still, it looks like a cunning plan. gl

USA Zeus 13:16 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Was able to get confirms on EUR/USD shorts adding 1.4277, 1.4308 leaving 1.4333

Also GBP/USD 2.0444, 2.0477, 2.0512 leaving 2.0555

Happy Day!

PAR 13:15 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Low openings on the Us stock markets usually mean high closes . Still think US stock markets will have the seventh consecutive up week .

London NYAM 13:14 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
reversed and short U/J at 115.62

London NYAM 13:09 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
limit long hit at 115.38 out again at 115.60 +21p. Not bad for a lunch time net.

Halifax CB 13:09 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:00 GMT October 18, 2007
Why does the attempted intervention of 3 large banks (Morgan,Chase, National City) to attempt to halt the slide of the Dow in Oct 1929 spring to mind? Among the notable losers in that proposition was Billy Durant, who went from being the founder of GM & big Wall Street player to managing a bowling alley. Maybe a certain group of risk managers will need to get used to wearing funny looking shoes...

Jerusalem ML 13:05 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
CAD to 0.99 this month??

Seems OK with me

Hong Kong Ahe 12:53 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:34 GMT - Yes, LOL I agreed. But the news looked to be reported as the amount was a huge one. ;)

MLT PA 12:42 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
MLT PA 15:43 GMT October 17, 2007
long eur/usd 1.4190 Stop/Exit 1.4130
target 1.4255, then 1.4315

Heading in the right direction (nearly complete). Holding above 1.4210 is now key while supply will appear around 1.4330/55 with Stops 1.4380 and if taken out little stands in the way towards 1.4490/1.4505.

longs 1.4190 Stop/Exit 1.4160
partial profits already taken.

Como Perrie 12:38 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
In general 1.4330 or so is being closely watched at current...

might be if stock markets do fall along with gold unprecedented highs...

would we have the unexpeted crash soon to come

I guess so...so will not post anymore for some

g/l all

shanghai bc 12:34 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:29 GMT October 18, 2007

1 yard is less effective than a small-sized toy water gun in forex world these days:)..

Como Perrie 12:32 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
yet the european officials here must be totally deemed...so much talk and talk and nothing.....smells the whole is being crunched ...gold spot back towards key res at 770 again too...

stock market to collapse by tomorrow ====????

I have such a sentiment at least but will not watch much...

tokyo ginko 12:32 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
cad/jpy in play

Melbourne Qindex 12:31 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The upper barrier of the weekly cycle projected series is located at 1.4272* // 1.4291. The center of the projected series is positioning at 1.4157.

 Weekly Cycle : 1.3929 - 1.3967* - 1.4005 - 1.4024 // 1.4043* - 1.4062 - 1.4081 - 1.4100 - 1.4119* - 1.4138 - [1.4157] - 1.4176 - 1.4196* - 1.4215 - 1.4234 - 1.4253 - 1.4272* // 1.4291 - 1.4310 - 1.4348* - 1.4386 ...

Hong Kong Ahe 12:29 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:25 GMT - Today some big talk about 1bln (I think may be USD, 1 bio) to attack HKD of its lowest limit 7.74 of the peg. But rumour said HK govt via a broker to intervene and brought it back above 7.75 level. Govt still have a strong tone not to de-peg. Good observation. ;)

Como Perrie 12:28 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
btw this august in nyc thee was a meeting of the quants manipulators that are in mission to fight market positioning so to avoid sharp moves...guess they have no ammos when PBOC is going to move, but loose big...

tokyo ginko 12:26 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
usd/yen at this level is tricky..good to take 1/2 out

Como Perrie 12:25 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   

Hong Kong Ahe 12:22 GMT October 18, 2007

btw was looking this hkd somehow to follow path to yuan reval. somewhere 7.68 to 7.40 large term talking

St. Annaland Bob 12:25 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   

EUR/USD: 14000[14250]14500 ... so simple it is :-) ... the manner it went above 14300 suggests there is a controlling hand that will burn EUR longs when the time will right for that hand ... safe and happy trades!

Hong Kong Ahe 12:22 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:21 GMT ; )

Como Perrie 12:21 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:11 GMT October 18, 2007

might be ..but am aware of those interventions and chaotic enviroment this yen is genereting...so far still holding some..took off just 1/3 for now

maybe I'll open a pizza bar and trade just twice a month those chaotic stairs and holes looking to neat the orders printed in the electonic systems.

New Brighton gvm 12:18 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
zeus - where's your stop on your euro and stg shorts ?

Melbourne Qindex 12:16 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The following weekly cycle projected series is dominating the market movement for the last several trading days. The center of the projected series is positioning at 2.0306. The upper barrier is located at 2.0477* // 2.0506.

Weekly Cycle Charts : ... 1.9962 - 2.0020* - 2.0077 - 2.0105 // 2.0134* - 2.0163 - 2.0191 - 2.0220 - 2.0248* -- 2.0277 - [2.0306] - 2.0334 - 2.0363 - 2.0392 - 2.0420 - 2.0449 - 2.0477* // 2.0506 - 2.0535 - 2.0592* - 2.0649 ...

Hong Kong Ahe 12:11 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:08 GMT - Why Perrie to take profit so soon? Middle East accounts will push it down to 113/114 level today. GLGT.

Como Perrie 12:08 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
took some multidays usdjpy shorts off the table around here...

flat the rest and off for some..this market I just don't like much

Melbourne Qindex 12:04 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY :  :  As shown in the monthly cycle charts the current expected trading range is 114.13 - 116.09. The distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade 112.17 - 116.09.

PAR 12:00 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
MLEC's clear aim is to avoid having to sell assets held by the SIVs, off-balance sheet contrivances that recall the worst of Enron. But, as Joan McCullough of East Shore Partners acidly observes, that's exactly what the Americans criticized Japanese regulators for doing during the 1990s.

And when U.S. officials pushed the Japanese to take the hit for their bad loans, many of which were real-estate-related, who led the American charge? Then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, now a major mucky-muck at Citi, the biggest SIV sponsor and MLEC beneficiary.

Interesting comments from Barron '

London NYAM 12:00 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Looks like U/J is winding up for its final run for the day.
I might have to fade it 115.38/115.05/114.87 stops under 114.50

Como Perrie 11:59 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Interesting to observe how cadjpy falling in synch with usdjpy is lifting usdcad ....interesting the same has not happened yet onto the eurusd eurjpy pair..

Melbourne Qindex 11:41 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : A projected supporting level is positioning at 1.1637 - 1.1642. The market may retreat from 1.1677 or 1.1698. Projected barriers are expected at 1.1740 and 1.1759.

melbourne DC 11:27 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Don't dismiss bad housing data ..


=DJ MONEY TALKS: ABX Offers Credit Markets A Word Of Warning
By Alen Mattich 18 oct 2007 21:06 ausest

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The ABX indices have been tanking again.

That's a worry, because they dropped dramatically in July as well, anticipating the crunch that caused credit markets to grind to a halt the following month.

Could it be that they will again be the bellwether for the rest of the credit market?

London NYAM 11:22 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Fib extensions show alot of clustering between 115.38 and 115.58 then blow a some clustrs at 114.79-85 then a little at 114.37-62

Como Perrie 11:21 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 11:18 GMT October 18, 2007

:)..... yeap... strange for all last decaded never were seen concerns for US officials about the undervalued yen

Hong Kong Ahe 11:18 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/YEN has come under pressure throughout the European morning session on news that the PBOC's Zhou promised to reform the Yuan which he says will eventually be fully convertible. Hedge fund bids into 116.30/20 were filled as the pair headed lower, with m/e names aggressive sellers of the headline following the China news.

Now, you see why Yenosans are so worried and eager to push the G7 agenda to discuss the China Mega-fund. I am so happy to hear Yenosans can no longer manipulate Yen anymore..... ;o)

PAR 11:07 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Imho 115.50 , 115.00 or if worst comes to worst 114.50 but then I think Japan will be hit either by a tsunami warning or by an eartquake . Lol.

GVI john 11:05 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in red navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
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The Netherlands Purk 11:05 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Closed one contraindicator short in e/j already, thank you dear DS.

The Netherlands Purk 11:01 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 10:34 GMT October 18, 2007

Good if you say so, i will sell it on blips for 157.55. Thank you new indicator.

GENEVA DS 10:48 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Question for PAR... actually question of the day..?? where will KAMPO or BOJ stop the decline today? is it 115.75 or 115.50 ? gl

Como Perrie 10:41 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
hence better avoid short term trading for the time being.

Como Perrie 10:39 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
You can say anything, but the whole appears in search of Itself, the unknown. Good have exited usdcad longs yesterday longon morn already...even if am suspecting this to stay some kind of side yet for some days..a deeper move there might be to from current, but alghoritms running the whole appear to be yet in search for direction here... maybe the more complex at current this usdcad


eurusd was said earlier sizeable options 1.4250 were killed off the market...guess how much do they spend for unnecessary hedging worldwide..heard millions to billions even in complex debt schemes renewed by swaps..

given the whole I just do not know

GENEVA DS 10:37 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Interesting, that finally NZ finance minister is admitting that Kiwi is not that expensive and fairly valued... after having intervened at that level 3 month ago...

GENEVA DS 10:34 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Rumour in the market that G7 will decide to let the market decide where USD will go... ! That would eventually help the oversold EURJPY cross to recover finally to 169.00 , where Japanese can live better...

LDN 10:24 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 10:21 GMT October 18, 2007
Yeap..res. for the [email protected] for the pair 9683...

Toronto MRC 10:21 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
LDN 10:18 GMT October 18, 2007
Usd/[email protected]

Resistance?

LDN 10:18 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Usd/[email protected]

madrid mm 10:11 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
The Short View - Can the Group of Seven’s finance ministers provide a catalyst for the dollar to recover when they meet this weekend? G7 meetings regularly generate speculation ahead of time that fails to affect the market.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0120bc50-7ce5-11dc-aee2-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
8-)

The Netherlands Purk 10:04 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Chennai Gupta 09:48 GMT October 18, 2007

wtf is DYO Gupta my dear humble man?
Also watch loonie here when oily boilies start to sell their possies a bit...

PAR 10:04 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
UK sep government borrowing hitting new highs, maybe because the $ 26 billion they lent to Northern Rock ? Or is that an off balance sheet item ?

Como Perrie 09:56 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Darling this morn added that heavy indebted and ultra loaning might couse severe problems to the UKs economy...so world wide ..

Como Perrie 09:55 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 09:53 GMT October 18, 2007

It's unprecedented so better not to have too much of expectations..the situation from this summer got just much more complex than officials would admit...

btw some rumors about a chinese bank to buy bear stearns were circulating last days...

Como Perrie 09:53 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
UKs Darling said this morn oil to be main agenda for the G7

melbourne DC 09:53 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Sampling the experts' opinions ...
Usd will plunge but not drop dramatically. ..
or .. usd will not drop dramatically rest of yr then plunge next yr.

Hong Kong Ahe 09:52 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:19 GMT LOLROTF, I suspected all G7 knew each other well enough that they were all living on the unlimited printout of Yen so as to get their monthly salaries. Not surprising to hear that G7 only talking about the RMB and the others were all putting under table. One thing I wondered why Yenosans are so worried about the newly created Megafund of the Chinese government and they wanted all other G7 members to put it into discussion agenda. Might they fear the Chinese mega-fund would grab the business domination of Kampo? GLGT.

madrid jm 09:48 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
SENSEX, the Bombay stock index is down 7% due to the romour thar authorities might increase the margins. watch carry trades¡¡

Chennai Gupta 09:48 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
The Netherland Purk 09:02 GMT October 18, 2007
I thought you were a DYO milkshake maker.....stay short euro and pay atention to LDN...lol..

Como Perrie 09:47 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
there are some errors been discovered apparently in central bank models and the black boxes ones...very big ones from a math perspective... so far no ideas for today...all strange ahead of this g7...except the yen maybe

Gen dk 09:38 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

telaviv dor 09:37 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
TU bar & GT Toda

telaviv dor 09:35 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
TU jm .GT.

rag bar 09:34 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
telaviv dor 09:24 GMT October 18, 2007
HI, what is the value of UN PESO (Argentina ) , TIA

ma nishma?

kabel: http://www.mataf.net/en/currency-converter-24.htm

EU theEUROqueen 09:31 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob..

thanks for the (Dalai Lama ) we will keep selling the usd ..

happy trade

madrid jm 09:28 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
3,16ars=1usd

telaviv dor 09:24 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
HI, what is the value of UN PESO (Argentina ) , TIA

PAR 09:19 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Contrary to other asian currencies the Chinese yuan has been appreciating consistently the last year . The G7 focus on the yuan seems a la Dalai Lama visit more politically than economically motivated .

London Gooner 09:03 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Cable bullish hourly bar just closed. Possibility of more highs to come
Have 2.0515/35 as next area. Not overbought on hourlies at this stage.

The Netherland Purk 09:02 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
I am Sean Kelly again today: short e/u 14230, and 14255.
Go fishing on Merlin now, so i Clogland that can take a few minutes...

Hong Kong Ahe 08:44 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:41 GMT - LOL, Par you always look things at its positive way. This world is fortunate to have you within it. ;o)

Gen dk 08:42 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 08:41 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
UK retail sales boosted by Northern Rock problems . People took money out of the bank and said better spent it than loose it in another Uk bank bancruptcy.

madrid jm 08:17 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
with this sell off in usdjpy, eurusd, gpbusd have a cap. crosses against yen are being sold for G7

Mumbai NS 08:13 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Enuf for the icing action time gl gt

Gen dk 08:03 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 07:45 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 07:42 GMT October 18, 2007
thanx NYAM,it is good to be back!

London NYAM 07:42 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Madrid JM 07:38//YEs looks like its about to fly off stops around .6964 break will stall the move.
FM//Welcome back sensei!

Madrid JM 07:38 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
3mliborgbp (5.82)-3meuribor (4.43) is getting less negative so this is favouring long position eur ag gbp. Buy eurgbp.

Lahore FM 07:36 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 07:31 GMT October 18, 2007
yes,exactly that.we can't say how loud euro officials might be so an event risk lingers right ahead.

Morristown GG 07:31 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
FM, by inhibitions are you referring to a general risk aversion?

LDN 07:29 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD [email protected]

London Gooner 07:25 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Previous hour bar bullish on EURUSD - Highs above 1.4253 a possibility.

Lahore FM 07:16 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GG,what Zeus mentions is a possibility.expect the unexpected.audyen has risen some but can't say if it would be lasting in front of G7 inhibitions.

Morristown GG 07:09 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
FM, Sorry I was thinking EST. Make that
Morristown GG 05:53 GMT

Morristown GG 07:06 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
FM, Nice to see you are here with us. Please look at my 14:55 post (I think) Where I went long AUD Yen. Comment and say a bit more about your pre G7 thoughts. Thanks, G

denver jake 07:01 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
obviously it's not to the same degree as the yen but swissy is a funding tool as well No one talks about parity with the $$ but the aussie has been mentioned consistently. hmmm
Wonder where nervous investors will park their assets if war activities and global imbalances keep escalting??

USA Zeus 06:57 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Decided to add EUR/USD 1.4252 along with remaining.

Lahore FM 06:56 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
nothing much changed over one week except half a point higher eurusd and mid range usdjpy.can be an interesting time with g7 ahead.

Lahore FM 06:55 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:31 GMT October 5, 2007
Lahore FM 21:39 GMT October 2, 2007
long gold 731.80,stops later.target 755.
==
closed half at 742.85 for 11.05$*.keeping rest for higher target.

==
closed remainder at 759.80 now for 28$ in all.

Morristown GG 06:41 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, Seriously, I understand you believe in manipulation to keep things in order. As G7 approaches, there is pressure to get the dollar up and E and GBP down.
Its a tough call now, but will be interesting to see what happens tonight and tommorow in NY. If the dollar does rise I think we can all agree that your Manipulation theory is right on - because why else would it?

Mumbai NS 06:25 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q tks a lot

Morristown GG 06:25 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, You seem to have inside knowledge. By any chance Does your last name start with CH and end with ey? If yes, say no. If no say no - that gives us a 50 50 chance that you are "in the know". Contrarian doesn't do you justice. Would your parents characterize you as a rebellious teen?

Melbourne Qindex 06:23 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 06:20 GMT - GBP/USD : I am bias on the downside.

USA Zeus 06:21 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Will be very interesting if that EUR/USD order is the high. Got filled but 2 of my other market makers did not trade up to it...1 pip shy. Wonder if it will become the luckiest trade of the day or just another fill. Time will tell...

GLGT!

Melbourne Qindex 06:21 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is likely to trade between 165.29 - 165.47 - 165.87. A resistant level is located at 166.45. Supporting barriers are expected at 164.97 - 165.11 and 165.29.

Mumbai NS 06:20 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud day sir what is ur bias for sterling from here gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 06:16 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 05:36 GMT - USD/JPY : A projected chart point is located at 116.92.

madrid mm 06:09 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
* Kansas City Fed Thomas Hoenig, a voter, says there have been fairly significant disruptions in the housing market. Weak housing market could hurt growth. Growth currently below its estimated potential. Lower USD has seen demand for exports rise. Inflation has slowed. Signals "wait and see" on outlook for Fed policy, depending on economy.

* NY Fed William Dudley says core of US financial system is healthy and well capitalised.

* ECB/ BBk Axel Weber says inflation risks have increased in eurozone lately. G7, IMF, will discuss FX regimes, FX should reflect fundamentals. Strong Eur hurts exporters, but dampens costs for importers. - Frankfurther Rundschau

* Fmr Fed Greenspan says he does not expect rapid USD fall should nations sell their US Treasury holdings - BBG.

* Ex MoF Eisuke Sakaibara, or Mr Yen, says USD may "plunge'' in 2008, should US growth fall below 1%, triggering some form of co-ordinated intervention from US, EU and Japan to intervene in FX markets. Prof Sakakibara says EUR/USD may rise to 1.4500, and USD/JPY may fall to 100 - BBG interview.

* NZ Finmin Michael Cullen, in CNBC says Kiwi will decline in medium term, reiterates Kiwi still "somewhat overvalued.

* IMF Akira Ariyoshi says conditions are not right for BoJ to hike rates. BoJ should wait until deflation is over, Japan growth may slow due to weaker exports, due to global slowdown- BBG

* Times Wed: UK house mkt is 'heading for crash': IMF said soaring prices have rendered mkt vulnerable to correction.

* HK-listed China shares rally on reports China may allow arbitrage btw shares trade in China, HK, for H-,A- shares.

* Calmer day today as stock markets stabilise, though some Cross/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY sales were noted after NY close on talks large Japanese agricultural, custodian/ securites houses may need to sell good amount again at fixing, for the third day running, helping to depress USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY into fixing.

* When no signs of selloff noted at fixing, market players bought USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD up, and with firmer stock markets, helped pushed all up to day highs. USD/JPY finding resistance at 116.70-80, though some options, stoploss buying in late Asia.

USD/JPY spiking higher to day highs on speculation of options related and stoploss buying from 116.43-45 to at day highs of 116.66, ahead of large 116.65 option expiry Tokyo cut, and also talks of huge 116.70/80 options expiry, NY Cut today tonigh.

EUR/USD firmer, hitting stoploss above 1.4230, to highs of 1.4240, and seen trying to "sneak" a new all time highs of 1.4281 ahead of G7, meeting tomorrow, the 20th Anniversary of 19 Oct 1987 Black Monday crash.

GBP firmer, AUD, NZD up on real money demand.

Nikkei +1.00% at 170.17pts at 17,125,48, while JGBs a tad higher today, 10-yr yield -0.005% at 1.640%.

Crude oil off highs, eye any OPEC hike, at $87.44.

Gold around key $760, at 759.20, remains bid.

USA Zeus 06:05 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:57 GMT October 18, 2007
Clarification- Still have hefty sums above these levels of GBP/USD and EUR/USD shorts- so as not to leave anything ambiguous.

Adding to those shorts in massive quantities at previous levels mentioned would purely be a gift.

Now that's a giant brass teflon balls call!!

Smiles.

Hong Kong YH 06:01 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:55 GMT October 18, 2007

is it really short GBP is better than long GBP?

USA Zeus 05:59 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Now that's a big balls call!
Smiles!

Mumbai NS 05:59 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Agree there on broader picture but if market gives me better lvls why not take the icing too gud luck gl gt

USA Zeus 05:57 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Still have a hefty load of shorts above these levels but will go real heavy as prescribed if such a wonderful opportunity presents. Don't think I'll get those add-ons but any would be a gift.

Happy Day!

denver jake 05:56 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 18:27 GMT October 16, 2007
Swissy is going to present some massive opprotunities soon. Odds on before weeks end.

I just bought a gaggle of swissy here @ 1.1773 :) stops over 1.1850

USA Zeus 05:55 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Well risk for big USD push remains so low risk trades are to sell EUR and GBP in favor of USD.

jkt rick 05:54 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
a break of 1.4242 triggers bullishness, those who short can place stops above that.

USA Zeus 05:53 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
please excuse the double post.

Morristown GG 05:53 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
I'm long AUD/Yen at 104.19 Thinking equities up, dollar under pressure for many reasons - incl possible int rate cut again, other news, IMF report on Aussie prospects for growth, and news about some in Japan wanting to cut rates, not raise.
Also still a long way back up to the pre 10-15 levels
Again Moon, Thanks for the education, It really is fairly simple
We should be able to figure a break point where those longs will have to give in - or where their sell stops are probably located.

USA Zeus 05:52 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Well here's the deal- markets move up and down so time to reload the EUR/USD and GBP/USD shorts. Still have some shorts from higher but time now to stockpile some shorts.
So Short EUR/USD 1.4240. Orders in to add 1.4277, 1.4308, 1.4333

GBP/USD 2.0414 then orders in to add 2.0444, 2.0477, 2.0512, 2.0555

USA Zeus 05:52 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Well here's the deal- markets move up and down so time to reloach the EUR/USD and GBP/USD shorts. Still have some shorts from higher but time now to stockpile some shorts.
So Short EUR/USD 1.4240. Orders in to add 1.4277, 1.4308, 1.4333

GBP/USD 2.0414 then orders in to add 2.0444, 2.0477, 2.0512, 2.0555

jkt rick 05:46 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Jkt Rick 07:40 GMT October 9, 2007
Euro/usd: 1.4045
euro has to "fly" to 1.4327


euro 1.4234
my assesment is premature, it looks now that much higher levels will be seen. perhaps 1.4476 looks likely

Mumbai NS 05:43 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 05:39 GMT October 18, 2007
Mate long term cbl targets very low infact not worth mentioning here and i totally agree sell but sell higher gl gt

AZUSA 4x-ed 05:39 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 04:57 GMT October 18, 2007
Thx NS... retail sales based on historical trend point north, however the cautious side of me would have me say that a significant upside surprise may not bode well for the pound in the long term.

madrid mm 05:37 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi from around the world 8-)

Hong Kong YH 05:36 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:46 GMT October 18, 2007

Hope that too. but 116.80 is not easy to break and current equities markets is still up.

Alaska Moon 05:29 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 05:19 GMT October 18, 2007
=======
Yes, you are welcome..... One thing that keeps the unwind of carry from being so severe.......Some of those carry traders are in at 105 to 108 yen, and the currency level now is a long way away from their panic point. Of course. there are traders who can't stand a 100 pip move against them. So...when say USA/YEN goes down from here....116.40...down to 114.40 the carry problem makes the decent worse....Some traders simply must close their trades...it's that simple. PK..GL
Moon

Morristown GG 05:19 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
By the way Moon, Thanks for that explaination last night on the interest and how it is offset by depreciation. The bottom line on AUD/YEN, is that a drop of 100 pips equals a loss of two months of interest. Working backwards, on Aug 14-17, a roughly 1000 pip drop wiped out 80 months interest. Where most players are in for much shorter periods, one can see why carry trade is less attractive in times of very high volatility. Some of the bigger funds must have been sweating seeing over 6 years interest wiped out in a few days. I suspect they had large sell orders just below the lows on Aug 17, and we can see why they might be defending their possitions with more buying and running stops with their black boxes. Am I seeing it clearly now?

Alaska Moon 05:18 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 05:11 GMT October 18, 2007
========
No, GG....I am not trading AUD/JPY. Here is one hint...
If you have up all three charts - AUD/US, US/yen and your Aud/yen,
you will quickly see how they work together.....
GT..GL
Moon

Melbourne Qindex 05:16 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range is 2.0304 - 2.0435. Barriers are located at 2.0340 - 2.0363 - 2.0370 - 2.0382.

Morristown GG 05:11 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Moon, NYAM, SYD and Others - Good Morning.
I'm looking at the carry charts and seeing a wait and hold pattern, leaning toward a break. I expect the Russians and Eastern Europeans will run some stops shortly. I'm thinking either sell E/D, or buy D/Y. Moon are you trading AUD/Yen tonight? If so what do you think? Aud economy supposed to be expanding, so I expect AUD/USD to move up, which might counter any Aud/Yen unwind. Your thoughts would be appreciated. By the way I checked and my platform is supposed to pay interest eiff on AUD/YEN held overnight, but I generally short, but now I'm interested in playing Carry myself at times.

Alaska Moon 05:04 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
NewYork Trading System 04:55 GMT October 18, 2007
=========
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Mumbai NS 04:57 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
If cbl clears 2.0430 today think has a gud upmove in the offing gl gt

NewYork Trading System 04:55 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
For more information please contact [email protected]

Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 04:46 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : It has potential to trade between 115.50 - 116.53. 116.80 is a significant level.

NYC NYC 3 04:06 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
war and USD. Post the Iraq invasion, money flows to emerging economies has zoomed. A post Saddam world offers a better horizon, mid east mkts are up 4-5 fold.

USd andwar? Yes the US economy has boomed for 6 years, but there are other places to allocate to.

EMF was 7 in macrh 03 its 25$ , not including dividends.

Though flows to the US rise and rise, Capital acct bursting.
sentiment, hasn't kept up.

The FRENCH net sold US stks in March 03, but bot record amts in 2000, when the euro was 83 and the Nasdaq 5k+.why ? would be a good question.

BRUNEI yu yu 03:39 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Hi vail mc how confident are you with your prediction?

Vail MC 02:50 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Also short GBPJPY from 237.77 earlier wed, 238.67 stop , limit 235.00

Vail MC 02:49 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Selling GBPUSD 2.04, stop 2.0455, target 2.0265

USA Zeus 02:33 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Been accumulating some EUR/USD and GBP/USD shorts here.

Philadelphia Caba 01:27 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
NEWS: Some In Japan"s LDP Favor BoJ Interest Rate Cuts Tokyo, October 18. In today"s Nikkei Financial. Some in Japan"s ruling LDP look to be favoring BoJ interest rate cuts rather than adjustments higher, including Kozo Yamamoto, an Upper House representative and member of the ruling party"s interest rate policy committee. Mr Yamamoto, a proponent of interest rate targets sees the current economic environment and price levels requiring not interest rate hikes but easing. With Japan seeing a slowdown in its current economic recovery and with the possibility of a slowdown in the US economy, such calls could gain weight going forward.

Syd .. 00:32 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
NZ Fin Min: NZD Still Somewhat Overvalued Versus USD
New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen said Thursday the New Zealand dollar remains "somewhat overvalued" against the U.S. dollar.

But in an interview with CNBC TV, Cullen added that given the widespread weakness of the U.S. dollar, the positioning of the New Zealand currency wasn't surprising.

The New Zealand dollar was closer to "equilibrium" rates against other key currencies such as the Australian dollar, Cullen said.

Patra alex 00:27 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
It's Thursday. Let's see how the EUR day develops..

FF-USA JC 00:05 GMT October 18, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 22:00 GMT October 17, 2007

I appreciate the comments. I guess since this war (if you can call it that) has been going on the US$ has been declining nicely and that has not served to be the course in the past. So I guess this NEW war wouldnt change the US$ decline because it is based on the same so called reasons for the current war. BUT, in my eyes it could very well appreciate because this isnt just us going into war this includes bigger players such as Russia who is allies with China, and Iran, and the Caspian area. We have the UK and EU and Japan so it is a larger scenario in my mind. Anyway just a thought/question. I am just trying to cognise where the FX markets could go from here. Cheerio!

 




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