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Forex Forum Archive for 10/20/2007

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shanghai bc 23:52 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
shanghai dave 02:05 GMT October 20, 2007

Please do so..My pleasure..

isr jweb 21:15 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm - zeus & co.

Pls let me know ok guys. can anyone give any ideas where we are heading next week, eur/usd gbp/usd gbp/jpy. is the euro gonna make a free climb like all analysts say? is gbp going to mark 2.10 i really would appreciate experiance as this is nothinbg new to long time traders.

Lahore FM 21:11 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:17 GMT October 20, 2007
Purk,the forum being global there surely is room for individulaism.i can't post like you even if i tried and i can post only like myself.cad or loonie shud not matter much.i have known both as the same coin.do stay and let us relish the individualism of your your posts.gtgl!

Alaska Moon 20:57 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 20:49 GMT October 20, 2007
----------
Yes..... I hope we can ALL learn a valuable lesson from all this...
Good Luck.
Moon

Stockholm za 20:49 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   

Re…..
It just goes to show that people do not pay attention to details nor have respect for functional qualities in an environment which they do not have authority over..

Global-View 18:39 GMT October 11, 2007
”… we will end this discussion very simply and what we have said to you ad nauseum in the past.
If you act in a professional manner, we nor anyone else will have a problem. If you come across as a teflon king, never losing, always boasting, mixing in alot of gibberish and over posting, it becomes an irritant.
If you act more like ….. , explaining your strategy so your actions do not mislead the newbie type trader, we have no problem. One suggestion and what we have said ….. before - opt for quality over quantity in your posts = don't over post. It will serve us and you alot better.
This ends the discussion so no reply is necessary.”

Yes . we all need to take a brake some times, to re-access & re-evaluate our functions..

Reliability index = [performance – (correlation coefficient + volatility)]

This ends the discussion so no reply is necessary.

Cbj Jake 18:54 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe - My friend, why formalize and crystallize a normal aggravation of an "on edge" profession and deprive the forum of two valued members. We can all take at least a small lesson from that intrepid "front line grunt", Zeus. He absorbs more bullets in a day than the "Green Zone" in Iraq and then, enthusiasticly, awakens us the next day to the heat of battle. Must be an Aries! Sincerely hope you both hang around.

isr jweb 18:49 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
ok guys. can anyone give any ideas where we are heading next week, eur/usd gbp/usd gbp/jpy. is the euro gonna make a free climb like all analysts say? is gbp going to mark 2.10 i really would appreciate experiance as this is nothinbg new to long time traders.

thanks a million.. i really need to know your thoughts.

AZUSA 4x-ed 18:43 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:59 GMT October 19, 2007
BC, do I sense a tone of irony in your post? Those who are quick to jump to conclusions should understand there is no ‘truth about G7’ that can be expressed in the context of contemporary events. Just mere opinions… and we all know the saying about ‘opinions’. Those who are looking for ‘legal truths’ should await a jury’s decision, while those who are interested in the ‘historical truth’… well, it will be up to future generations to make such ‘definitive’ judgments, as they would be viewed in the context of historical events and not those portrayed by Asia Times or GV-FF.

The Netherlands Purk 09:17 GMT October 20, 2007
Purk, I can relate to some of those feelings. Looks like I will have to do some soul searching as well in the next few days. Best wishes amigo!

Livingston nh 18:13 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
PAR - that article borders on a total misunderstanding of current economic conditions, the background of geopolitical concerns that brought us here and is the functional FX equivalent of Global Warming // other than that it was wrong

PAR 18:08 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Shangai 23.59 / Excellent analysis which confirms mho that G7 meetings are irrelevant and just a waste of taxpayers money. Especially Trichet never opens his mouth during G7 meetings except for tasting the wine . Apparently Trichet could be an excellent sommelier , as central banker he has less impact . Lol.

Stockholm za 16:15 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   

Norway e.s 21:55 GMT October 12 >>

You are most welcome....

Hong Kong Ahe 14:59 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:55 GMT - I will post further about position trading for you in Help-learning forum.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:55 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
on Position trading //

also bc said that exits are most important as ideal entry levels are possible only in hindsight so I kinda feel I am close to the idea of positions trading but still haven't got it as inner knowledge...

I feel it is smtg like you analyse the chart to the extent of one's knowledge and experience and decide on direction -- you take on a trade and have your risk defined in regard of your Equity and position size - and from now on you don't bend to take greater loss if losing and don't fall into the trap t get the first 5 pips you saw ...

hope I;m on the right way here..

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:49 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahe //
tnx again - I will transfer further q's to the Help forum where they are best suited...

I have had the same view over the years that Stock market indicators just put on a FX chart don't work outright.. and also like BC had said - one has to dig into the fundamentals.. like |RSI is best for Daily and Weekly /as Wilder said.../

I also saw that posinion size and risk mgmt actually matter far more than being right on direction.... so trying now to trade with lowest possible leverage until I get hold of some basic rules...

will be greatly thankful if you continue a bit more on Positions trading in the Help or whatever way you deem appropriate..

JF -- thank you also very much - it seems trading on price alone and identifying position levels is close to your ideas - I am sorry that right now I don't really understand the basics behind it .. maybe I have to start looking ina new perspective as I always wanted to find something solid to lean upon like Indicator / system / info ... but it proved that in the market the only thing that work for you will be smtg that actually only can develop for yourself...

have a nice weekend all!

Hong Kong Ahe 13:44 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:24 GMT - Hi Kaprikorn, there are many indicators. Some served quite good for a period of time as the traders at that time thought and acted accordingly to those indicators. Later, when they met the blind spots of these indicators and lost the way, they dropped them. For example, in early 90s, Wave theory was very popular and most master traders were looking at the charts and counted the wave. So they acted accordingly. Like when a target level hit trice, it would change the direction. When they thought it was a head, the shoulder would be seen. However, later they found in financial turmoil that wave theory completely didnt work. They got big loss. They droped the wave theory and believed the Japanese Candle/Sticks theory might be helpful. Nowadays, a lot of newbie traders who might be joint the forex market during the years of Yen manupilation, they might follow the pip theory.
Some indicators (developed originally for the stock market) were put as goodies in the forex chart.
The main point is what indicators are now the most fashioned one and which influence the traders behaviour.
DMI and RSI sometimes are working but not so accurate when the forex market has gone into a frenzy state. I mean, no significant correction nor profit-taking activities by the sheeps and the sherpards.
Thus, by my personal experience, position trading is always the best method for traders. Level is served as the best indicator. Too long to post it short. I always like to help you because you have a humble heart to learn and not like other arrogant newbies in this forum. GLGT my friend.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:24 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahe //

hi - I saw the discussion with Kevin - on using dmi + rsi
do you think that kind of set yeilds good results and wht timeframes preferably - Hourly, 2-4H or Daily

would you offer an opinion on which indicators (apart from the popular Slow Stochastics) are best in range/consolidation market?

nj jf 11:43 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Purk, its an internet forum of many different people. what seems to be hard for some people to get, is if there is a post they dont like their the good guy and the other the bad guy. another problem is that some people think every post is directed at them and they have to respond to everything. so while you can share in the smooth running of the exchange of ideas there are times you just have to ignore the things that run contrary to what you prefer.

wish you would re-consider your decision on the weekend and come back next week. gt.

Global-View Research 11:09 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
FACTBOX-What the G7 said about FX in Washington

slv sam 10:16 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 08:59 GMT /
Profit taking on AUDJPY!GT

The Netherlands Purk 09:17 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Well this is one of my last posts here, because i have the feeling i have nothing to contribute anymore. I always believe that human beings are born without any of the things that some of the posters are meaning here.
I have great and deep respect for human beings as FM from Pakistan, NYAM from the UK. May have forgotten one or two, but those people will address people directly instead of crying out for their mother. Many here will continue to post out of frustration rather than anything else. I do not like myself every time i place such words anywhere because i like to have fun in life and a lot of people only have fun when it only suits themselves. Of course i am far from perfect, first one to admit that.
Not quitting for the posts after my posts, but for a while now after reading posts of one guy beating the other for his speech. Whenever one posts an entry or exit, other people jump on it. I trust that those people are making all the money and i wish that they will grow in the direction they wish to grow. Trust that newbies (whatever that means) will follow their own plan, read some stuff from people to learn from and that NOBODY other that the marketmakers. I know that people who speak up are loved and hated, that is not new.
The world is turning into a world that turns people into "only care for themselves" people. That has got nothing to do with ego. Also this world is turning into people who are programmed with their parents or other not namable influences. Those people forgot to think for them selves. They do look at something and they say what they are thought to say, because they dont look, they only judge.

I wish EVERYBODY all the things they need, and that someday everybody wakes up with a smile on their face because they did not judge the world the day before.
My hats of for the peple who do not post here and are learning every day to think for themselves.
Cheerio GVI, was my pleasure, i will follow the forum, and i have said goodbye before, and i will come back but not for a while.
GUPTA: enjoy the waves...

Rio Tinto Analistafx 08:59 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Hello forum!
Hi have one question to all members that is making my head spinning!
After the G7 meeting what to think about eur/usd and aud/usd? I was surprised when i arrived home and saw audusd falling to .8901 (losting some hourly suport) and eurusd up to 1.43. I was astonished questioning why happen this? against usd the two currencies eur and aud had diferent ways: first up and second down.
What do you think will happen next week? Some people said that was a rumour that G7 would not speak about dollar and the summit in Lisbon was celebrate. I think that are two good news to eur but normally we buy in runours and sell in the news. Do you think its time to make some profit taking on eurusd and audusd? Any targets for next days especially for eurusd?
TIA.
GT & GL

St. Annaland Bob 07:59 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:59 GMT October 19, 2007

someone's truth describes better...with that said, from my personal point of view the writer has some very strong points for his case...taking over an empire with stronger and better one needs awareness to the faults of the old one and not only jealousy to satisfy...#1 position soon is a done deal, but how you guys will manage to hold it?...by the way, who says that FX and politics are not sides of the same coin?

Lahore FM 07:59 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
UPDATE 3-Japan tells G7 yen should reflect fundamentals
Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:40am ET
By Yoko Nishikawa and Tamawa Kadoya

WASHINGTON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Japan told Group of Seven financial chiefs that the yen should reflect economic fundamentals and that they agreed to recognize the risks of one-way bets, Japan's finance minister said.

"I just said that the yen should surely reflect Japan's economic fundamentals," the finance minister, Fukushiro Nukaga, said at a press conference in Washington on Friday following a meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs.


He was responding to a question about comments by Germany's finance minister, Peer Steinbrueck, who said that Japan's authorities had told the G7 meeting that the country's good economic development should be reflected in its currency.

An official with Japan's ministry of finance was quick to say that Nukaga's comment did not indicate any change in Japan's currency policy.

European officials have voiced concerns about the strength of the euro, which rose to a record high against the dollar on Friday. France had pointed to the yen, saying it has not been reflecting the strength in the world's second-largest economy.

The yen, which hit a 3-week high against the dollar on Friday, rose sharply in August when a global credit squeeze sparked investors to reverse so-called carry trades in which they had borrowed in low-yielding yen to fund the purchase of higher-yielding investments.
The G7 finance chiefs did not refer to a phrase about one-way bets in their final statement [ID:nN19376954]. Nor did they mention the dollar, euro or yen specifically, although they did put China's yuan in the spotlight calling for a faster appreciation of the currency.

Nukaga refrained from commenting about the yuan beyond comparing Friday's G7 official comments on the yuan with a statement issued at the last meeting in April, saying it would not be "appropriate" to comment further.

Another finance ministry official said a difference between the statements was that the G7 now cited inflation in China in addition to its huge current account surplus. The previous statement had only referred to China's current account surplus.

WARNING ON CARRY TRADE


Nukaga said the G7 group -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States -- was sticking to its views on the need to recognize the risks of one-way bets.

The latest statement dropped a phrase, initiated in the G7 meeting in February and repeated in April, that market participants should incorporate the implications of global economic developments in their assessments of risks.

The phrase has been regarded as a warning to carry trades.

"We (G7) shared the view again that it is desirable to recognize risks of one-way bets in various markets, especially in the currency market," Nukaga said
But investors were more sensitive now to such bets after the currency volatility seen since August, an official with Japan's ministry of finance said.

Asked about a sharp fall in U.S. stock markets on Friday and market volatility this week, Nukaga said:

"It will take some time for markets to stabilize but the fundamentals for the global economy have not changed so we (G7) agreed that the expansion trend is firm and we will overcome this."

A warning by Caterpillar Inc that the housing slump was infecting the wider U.S. economy sent Wall Street shares tumbling by the most in more than two months, a drop made more unnerving because it occurred on the 20th anniversary of the 1987 crash.[ID:nN19360713]


Nukaga said that despite some weakness, Japan's economy was recovering moderately although there was concern about the U.S. economic outlook and high oil prices.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui, who also attended the G7 meeting, said that Japan's expansion continued and would likely continue over the longer term.

Inflation would be near zero in the short term but rise into positive territory over the long term, and the central bank would adjust rates based on the economy and price conditions, he said.

Market participants expect the BOJ to raise its key lending rate, now at 0.5 percent, in December or early next year. (reuters)

jkt rick 07:23 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
the only way the dollar can give a 7000 points rally is if the USA enters a deep deflationary recession ASAP.

HK [email protected] 02:53 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the americans in collaborations with the Japanese are out there to control the currencies and exchanges by strengthening the yen gradually. Lot of money will be annihilated through shrinking of the exchanges especially in those emerging markets(through reduction in the carry trade and a leading decline in the DOW).

One may watch too for commodity prices including oil for a pullback.

The carry trade was used to supply lot of cheap liquidity for the US (and others) financial markets when yen was weakening.

On the other side, on reversal when yen strengthens, it can be used to draw or annihilate lot of money from the same players leaving them with losses or with nothing.

Likely now the first priority of the US is to prevent inflation and moderate the USD decline.

Yen dropping to the range 112.00/50 becomes more probable this time(As I suggested Y.day HK [email protected] 00:43 GMT October 19, 2007

)

HOU 02:45 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Hello folks.

YVR MAXXIM 02:10 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
In the clouds arrived texelent comedy beam fruit shortusabakon

shanghai dave 02:05 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Hi Shanghai BC, could i please have ur email info thru Jay? thanks in advance.

Bris 00:22 GMT October 20, 2007 Reply   
Well - Jay and John
I wish something was done about postings like
Dick double-talks, Amsterdam Bordello, etc.........
which are building up on the Forex Forum of late.
Does not promote well the GV site to a new trader checking out the Forum and does not promote patronage from a lot of us I would think IMVHO

 




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