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Forex Forum Archive for 10/21/2007

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Melbourne Qindex 23:59 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Mla evan 23:56 GMT - Will post other weekly cycle analyses later in the week.

Mla evan 23:56 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, thanks, is your weekly analysis for Euro and Gbp still current. Also Usd/cad and Aud please.

Melbourne Qindex 23:44 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 23:41 GMT - Good morning!

Alaska Moon 23:43 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Oops.....I mean hand sliped LOL

Alaska Moon 23:41 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:11 GMT October 21, 2007
My 30 minute candle on US/Yen bounced off your weekly cycle pivot @ 114.91 to the exact pip on my platform...Good work !!

Tor Pumpkin 23:36 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
YIPPEE, call me tomorrow.

isr jweb 23:27 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
short eur usd @ 4.33 target 1.41 stop 1.436

Melbourne Qindex 23:16 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Mla evan 23:09 GMT - The weekly cycle analysis is the key reference in my system and a new weekly cycle projection will be generated at the end of each week.

Melbourne Qindex 23:11 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 114.91 - 116.48. The market is going to head for the lower barrier of the weekly cycle projected series at 112.83 // 113.12*. In the mean time the market will vibrate around 113.72 with an expected magnitude of 113.42 - 114.01.

Mla evan 23:09 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, how abt your previous post?

Melbourne Qindex 03:18 GMT October 19, 2007
USD/JPY : As long as the market is trading above 113.78, it can rebound easily.

NYC YIPPEE 22:54 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Selling AUDJPY 100.97 Stop 101.27 Target 97.20.

NYC YIPPEE 22:52 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
FWIW - Scooping EURUSD @ 1.4330. Stop 1.4313 Target 1.4420.

Melbourne Qindex 22:51 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY :The market is heading towards the range 112.80 - 113.12.

Lahore FM 22:36 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
in the battle of the titans,jpy will lose out again though it is putting up a nice fight.

Alaska Moon 21:22 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
jkt rick 20:32 GMT October 21, 2007
If the Yen drops that far and you are short....If your return is only 15%....You should switch over to my dealer... !! LOL

jkt rick 20:32 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   

if the yen goes to 100, from the current 115 level, thats a 15% return compared to 4.25% from "interest"

Geneva 18:30 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
On U.S. strong dollar policy

"I was very clear -- and it didn't surprise anyone because I've always been clear on this with my colleagues -- that I believe a strong dollar is in our nation's interest and believe that currency values should be determined based upon underlying economic fundamentals in a competitive marketplace"

So funny!

Geneva 18:13 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
usd/jpy- 114.01 euro/usd 1.4309 right now

Makassar Alimin 18:11 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
jkt rick 17:34 GMT October 21, 2007

and paying huge interest on holding it?

Athens 17:35 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Geneva, Helsinki IW, thank you.
IW, congrats on Kimi Räikkönen winning the F1 championship!

jkt rick 17:34 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
the most important pair to watch is the almighty YEN, the worlds most powerful currency if it wasnt the worlds most manipulated ccy.
it is the next greatest position trade in the world.

jkt rick 17:23 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:37 GMT October 21, 2007

this is very valuable advice and applies to many assets not just currencies.

Helsinki iw 16:21 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Adam, good to see you here and it makes me happy that we seem to be in the same camp.

Very interesting F1 race at Sao Paolo. I hope you are enjoying it.

Geneva 12:41 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Athens 12:31 GMT October 21, 2007

Thanks, Athens good to see some old and stable trader.
Take care and hope to hear from you more offen.


Athens 12:31 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
An excerpt from Trendways weekly analysis this weekend:

"Before describing the current short/medium term conditions, a word about the big picture, The current long term upleg (as part of the full uptrend since 2002) goes back to end 2005 (November low 1.1640, December low 1.1655). That was where the big correction since December 2004 bottomed out, covering 20 big figures and lasting almost a full year. Since then EUR/$ has resumed its uptrend having already covered 27 big figures. As I have mentioned here in the past, FX history shows that large one way sub-trends usually cover on average around 25 and in a few cases around 30 big figures (I am referring to FX history since the mid 70s). Exceptions to the rule have been seen at times of big long term trend reversals accompanied by concerted central bank intervention, which is not the case at present. I will remind you that the previous two major sub-trends confirm the argument:

The first of them covered 34 big figured from 0.8560 to 1.1930 (actually the formal origin was the second major historical bottom 0.8350 but a very long lasting bottoming consolidation followed until February 2002). Its extra large size was typical of the long term trend reversal with some help by "divine forces".

The second major subtend run from 1.0760 (correction bottom from 1.1930) to 1.3665 i.e. it covered 29 big figures. Whether the current 27 big figures since 1.1640 signal the end of this subtend is something we don't know at the moment, but in any event they are well in line with the average 25-30 big figure sub-trends as described above.

To end with the EUR/$ big picture as this is the main focal pair for the market, I an almost sure the market is eyeing 1.45 (plus/minus) as a probable target. Not only as a big round figure but also as a static and potentially dynamic target. As a static target 1.4550-55 corresponds to the old $/DEM historic bottom 1.3440. As a probable dynamic target, on Monday 1.4465 is marking the upper parallel line to the major support line since 2006. That parallel is rising slowly and at some will point will reach 1.45. In any case, static or dynamic, 1.4450-1.4550 obviously attracts market interest although this does not necessarily means that it must definitely be reached. If you ask for my personal feeling, I don't think the ECB has any desire to see that level given that, if reached, the market will be yelling for 1.50. May I also remind you that big round figures usually are not good as a top (or bottom) and that's the reason I wrote here last month that something like 1.42-1.44 might do the job for a probable medium or even long term top."

NOTE: The above comment is not based on Trendways model technical parameters but is only refers to long time historical datra. Therefore it should be treated only as food for thought rather than as a short term trading suggestion.

EU theEUROqueen 11:05 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
the euro will not stop b4 the 1,49**-1,50**

happy trade

LJ BK 09:47 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 08:35 GMT October 21, 2007

I would expect Fed to cut rates next week again (25 or 50) and that might be the last massive USD sell-off for a while.

madrid mm 09:14 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Isn t it what they mean by " what goes around, comes around." ???


Brazil, Argentina Demand More IMF Scrutiny of Richer Nations

By Christopher Swann and Jeb Blount

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil and Argentina chastised the International Monetary Fund for its failure to foresee the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market.

beitar RCB 08:55 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Guys, Does anyone know if the trading system here at censored is down? I can't seem to go in to my account.


Helsinki iw 08:35 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar, trading at an all-time low against its major trading partners, may extend the decline after the Group of Seven failed to address the drop following a meeting of finance officials.

The 1,45/46 target will be reached most likely in short order. Looking for a better sized correction from those levels. Selling dollars now may be like entering the party just as the punch bowl is being taken out. imho.

Lahore FM 07:50 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 05:17 GMT October 21, 2007
That' very much my point too,i don't believe Japanese officials and their word play!

HK [email protected] 07:29 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
I think Euro based on my computations is on the way to what I mentioned B4. More than a month passed since some raised eyebrows once I mentioned this target, but it is likely to be hit. I offered too a computation for 1.51 target and another even higher, but no need to jump too early.
HK [email protected] 05:51 GMT September 13, 2007
Longer view
The possibility of Euro going to 1.48 is a reality. It may even happen within the next month, when all the truth and the extent about the latest scandals will come out.
A refined computations point to 1.4850 for more accuracy.
Now you can get an idea why position traders make more money than day traders. GL/GT

HK [email protected] 05:17 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:59 GMT October 20, 2007
UPDATE 3-Japan tells G7 yen should reflect fundamentals
Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:40am ET
By Yoko Nishikawa and Tamawa Kadoya

You don't believe any Japanese officials of the finance ministry.
They may only try to weather any possible attack on them, because of their hour by hour interventions and manipulations of the yen in currency market.

They are much the ones behind that carry trade, which was always yen-undervalued contrary to their improving mercantilistic economy.

And like all good things in the world it must be forcibly ended(aborted), now in reverse to the carry trade, will come the Miscarriage trade(antonym to carry trade LOL).

It is of the best interest of the US to hold the flow of that yen monopol-money, or they will sink themselves in the money flood and super high commodity prices they created, turning the USD into nothing.

Now it is clear to all that all the ways are leading to the yen. And there may be a need to sacrifice the mercantilistic economy of Japan for some time.

And that guy down is adding fuel to the fire.LOL

IMF's Rato - Dollar Overvalued Despite Orderly Slide
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Published: October 20, 2007
Filed at 7:25 p.m. ET

Skip to next paragraph WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The dollar is overvalued in the medium-term even though it has depreciated in recent years, and markets are betting on the greenback to fall further, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said on Saturday.

"In the medium term, the dollar is overvalued," he said at a news conference, adding "the markets are also betting right now that the dollar is overvalued."

He said the decline of the dollar, which has shed some 8 percent against the euro this year and hit a record low against a basket of major currencies, has been orderly and added that the exchange rate is set by markets.

"And in that respect, he said, "markets can behave differently sometimes than economic analysis."

Sofia Kaprikorn 01:53 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
bc ....

I wish i had adhered to your advice months ago when I was first reading your notes on the Learning section -- however I now see things that i didn't understand back then and the experience I've accumulated thru my losses helped me convince myrself in the necessity to find a way to trade like a fund even with a retail account..

I have identified a few things that help in developing a positive performance:

1. Patience - waiting for the best setup to initiate a trade
2. Proper position size/leverage to SL and Equity size
2. Defy Overtrading and/or cut Oversatying with a trade that is in a loss beyond the pre-defined level or hasn't gone in the expected direction for too much time that invalidates the initial scenario...


shanghai bc 01:41 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 01:15 GMT October 21, 2007

Thanks..I am learning from you too..

shanghai bc 01:37 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 00:57 GMT October 21, 2007

My advice to anyone who wants to make big money in the market is,learn to position-trade even if it is the hardest thing to do in the market..Big money is in big swings,not in daytrading..Daytrading by its nature cuts the profits short when it really matters for big money..Daytrading method may be used to cut losses short instead..Never met a daytrader-bilionaire in any market..In commercial banks,they have no choice but carry out daytrading to provide liquidity and service to the clients or to fleece the clients,to be more precise..As an individual investor,that is not the way to go about business..You will have much better chance of making big money just position-trading two or three trend a year rather than cutting profits short all the time via daytrading..In trading, it is how much one makes that counts even only with a few trades a year,not how many times one wins or loses..For banks and brokers,it is of vital importance that investors must trade day and night all seasons for obvious reasons..An investor should not behave like a broker while a broker should not behave like an investor..Simple as that:)

Alaska Moon 01:15 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
All the traders on this forum should go to the archives....
Shanghai bc for the last year. There is an education there about forex that will benefit us all !!!
You will be amazed how "right on" his post are during the whole year.
I allready was reading everything bc posted, but now I am going to PAY ATTENTION !!
Good luck...

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:57 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
thank you so much for your attention!

I think after a long time of fighting with myself (constantly losing) I reached the point where I can see that no matter one can see potential to make money from 5 min to 1-2 H timeframes... there is smtg different that can provide sustainable results and this is position size and leverage...

so it's better to have 1 position trade with 100 pips profit and 50 pips SL - than spending 12 hours at the monitor to make 10 trades for 10 pips each... the stress and the outcome are not making up for the end result...

these are just remarks and observations on my mistakes in an effort to make a transition to more sustainable trading manner..

tnx again!

shanghai bc 00:18 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:55 GMT October 20, 2007

For position trading in forex market,we have to remember it is almost always another related financial market which starts a move in forex market,forex market just being a vehicle of moving money to re-position the assets in other markets..So it is of vital importance to study other markets which affect the whole trend of forex market,medium-term and long-term..If you are just daytrading or even short-term trading,the above is not the matter of critical importance or relevance ..For daytraders,just concentrating on short-term forex chart may do..I am still looking for consistently winning daytraders in forex market even after three dacades in the market though:)..The position trading is a totally different issue though..I see most newbies confusing this vital importance and difference all the time..

shanghai bc 00:01 GMT October 21, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 18:43 GMT October 20, 2007

It was an Indian writer's view of G-7.. My view of G-7 is that its relevance has past the value date in forex terms..It has turned into a party of self-important bureaucrats who do nothing of relelvance except putting on the air of relevance while lots of chanpagne and caviar are wasted..It would be far better if it were reorganized into an organization of relevance or gracefully disappear into the night:)..


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