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Forex Forum Archive for 10/22/2007

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Syd .. 23:47 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Lead Nikkei Futures Open Up 45 Points At 16510 On SGX

Syd .. 23:16 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
US Stock Futures Higher On Apple Cue

Syd .. 23:06 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Nikkei Likely To Open Higher; Target 16500

Gen dk 22:42 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London Gooner 22:40 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
AudUsd. but weekly close lat week (bearish weekly candle) implies rallies short lived and better look for short.
0.9940/50 is 50% of lats week bearish candle, today's the high did 38% might be it since the sell signal in a weekly one.
Also Gold retracement can be deeper.
Would prefer to sell Aussie on rallies to .8940 area if seen.
Last week candle is ugly.

dc CB 22:34 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Nas 100 futures NQZ up 15+pts on Apple.

(briefing.com)
Apple Conf Call Summary (174.36 ) -Update-

Mac products and services made up over 62% of quarterly revs. Ended the qtr with slightly less than three weeks of Mac channel inventory. Saying that research shows that 95% of iPhone owners would recommend the iPhone to others. Total deferred revs from iPhone was $636 mln. Expect a majority of redemptions on the $100 iPhone rebate for customers who paid the original higher price to be completed by the end of the Dec. qtr. 31 mln people visited Apple stores during the qtr. Have 40 stores scheduled to open in the coming year and have plans to open first store in China... in Beijing next summer. Guided Q1 gross margin lower sequentially, to 31%, due to: the full quarter impact of our recent product transitions and reduced pricing, lower sales of iLife and iWork in their second quarter, seasonally higher component costs, and a higher mix of indirect sales. Later basically admitted they were underestimating as they intentionally didn't mention the Leopard OS as a offsetting factor. Saying that they expect component prices to remain low and see that environment improving for hard drives and LCDs. Noting that Europe continued to show excellent growth. Commenting that the holiday season is usually the best for iPods while answering a question about why production is ramping. Being very evasive about what they expect to see throughout the holidays. Japan continues to be their most challenging major market but they were encouraged by Mac results there. Noting that iPod was down y/y in Japan because they sold a large number to a telecom company for promotional purposes a year ago. Saying they were very happy with the elasticity of demand after the price cut in the iPhone. Saying they didn't see any cannibalization of the iPod by the iPhone. Trading at $187.35 after-hours

Syd .. 22:22 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD could climb above 0.8900 today, Asian stocks to provide impetus in absence of local data today, plus ahead of RBA meeting Nov. 6, Australian CPI tomorrow, says NabCapital; adds further expected Fed rate cuts give bearish outlook for USD but uncertainty over extent of cuts means currencies will be mainly driven by equity markets in coming weeks.

Bangkok FUA 22:01 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
hello FM,

good morning .... whats your view on cable ?

Syd .. 22:00 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:52 would be a nice area to sell it too

Lahore FM 21:52 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 21:50 GMT October 22, 2007
0.8940 would wake the forces of carry quite fine.

Syd .. 21:50 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:43 GMT Hello there , whats your target on the AUD in the next 24hrs many thanks

Lahore FM 21:43 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 21:16 GMT October 22, 2007
that's right.

isr jweb 21:16 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:49 GMT October 22, 2007
over a day's time it would become clearer that we are on threshold of a new carry environment.present price action is early makings of that.

can you explain? are you trying to say that there is a reversal underway, and that we are going to see yen falling in the next 24 hrs?

Tallinn viies 20:37 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
seems china wants decide how things roll publicly not only on fx field :)
China Li:Disputes IMF role in FX, urges bigger role for China "Growth in some major developed countries has slowed down since the second quarter, reflecting a significant downside risk in the global economy," said Vice Finance Minister Li Yong in a statement to the IMF annual meeting. "At the same time, there is a widening gap between the north and the south, unbalanced global economic development, (a) resurge in trade protectionism, high oil prices, unstable exchange rates in the world major currencies and increasing pressure of expected high inflation," Li said. We believe that the Fund's exchange rate surveillance should focus on whether a member country's exchange rate regime is consistent with its medium-term macroeconomic policies, rather than the level of the exchange rate," Li said. "We also hope that the Fund will respect the autonomy of its members in choosing their own exchange rate regimes," he said, without making any remarks directly on the yuan. In addition, Li complained about the lack of progress in ceding developing countries more of a say in the IMF and World Bank, despite pledges to make changes that reflect their crucial importance in the world economy. "The increasing share of the developing countries in world GDP (gross domestic product) and their significant contribution to world growth should be duly reflected in the voice and representation in the decision-making of the BWIs (Bretton Woods Institutions)," Li said. “The developing countries can no longer be excluded from major decisions or remain severely underrepresented," he said, noting that the closed-door policy of appointing the heads of both the World Bank and the IMF must change.

GVI john 20:24 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
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Syd .. 20:01 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 13,570.63 4:01pm ET 48.61 (0.36%) +

Lahore FM 19:49 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
over a day's time it would become clearer that we are on threshold of a new carry environment.present price action is early makings of that.

GENEVA DS 19:11 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
CHFJPY has confirmed long term trend reversal at 97.45, Target for next few weeks could be 92.50... SL 98.45... good Risk reversal... gl gt to all...

GENEVA DS 18:48 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Some interesting reversal charts in AUDUSD... think we could be in soon for a nice KANGOROO JUMP ... but this time to the lower end of the range of 84-89.... gl..

Stockholm za 18:39 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   

Bodrum OEE 17:33 GMT >> lol……

You will need to re-define -markets participant-
One should never mix up any forum activities & behaviour with the general global ethics of market place/participants.
Happy trades to you……

saloniko nk 18:35 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Good Evening...

BC

Do u think that this G7 meeting gave short term hopes only, to $ Bulls?

:)
nk

Geneva 18:35 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
The dollar will keep rising, and every body will call for a lower dollar all the way to 1.25. when it will reach they will call for a higher dollar!

GL Good night.

Mtl JP 18:12 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Syd 17:43 / 500 companies reporting this week. cross your fingers they have support on EPS. my line in the sand is 12,500

Bruxelles NYAM 18:01 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Hi Bodrum Zeus etc
Have you taken some profit kapricorn? failure to break 114.87 suggests another leg down to me.
Purk sorry to hear your on a voyage to another Galaxy but i m sure you will return the better for it.

Syd .. 17:43 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Stocks pulled into positive territory Monday afternoon as selling following Friday's steep drop abated, led by strength in technology stocks, with two of the sector's larger players scheduled to report on profits after the closing bell.

Van jv 17:41 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens 12:31 GMT October 21, 2007
thanks for your timely comments
................................ In any case, static or dynamic, 1.4450-1.4550 obviously attracts market interest although this does not necessarily means that it must definitely be reached. If you ask for my personal feeling, I don't think the ECB has any desire to see that level given that, if reached, the market will be yelling for 1.50. May I also remind you that big round figures usually are not good as a top (or bottom) and that's the reason I wrote here last month that something like 1.42-1.44 might do the job for a probable medium or even long term top."

Bodrum OEE 17:33 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Should I post this in help forum?

Anyway, here it is:

There are four characteristics of a markets participant I notice that are deadly if not cured:

1) I have seen a number of heroes of many who fall victim to over-confidence for being unrootedly right (or wrong, rootedly yet unconsciously).

2) one’s changing attitude towards others when same person is right and approved by others (polite reception all the time) and otherwise (rude reaction at any stage).

3) never to admit it the former when against self (1.) and apologize in relation to the latter (2.)

4) support third party views in return of favours of this or that kind

I hope some of it makes sense (I will go through it and let myself know, I hope)

I wish all of you good times ahead

Gen dk 17:27 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GENEVA DS 17:08 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR

eventually soon interest rate reduction in JAPAN as at the moment not enough munition by KAMPO ? And now with Copperfield in trouble, who is gonna do the job for BOJ ?
gl

Lahore FM 17:04 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 16:59 GMT October 22, 2007
totally agree.

PAR 16:59 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Back to normal trading. After weak NY opening NY stocks rally into the afternoon on expectations of better than expected technology earnings and improvement in the Us housing sector .

Lahore FM 16:58 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 16:56 GMT October 22, 2007
DJIA now +

Livingston nh 16:52 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Sovereign Wealth Funds are to markets like drunken sailors in a bad part of town

Lahore FM 16:47 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
mighty Zeusteresting day where jpy held all pairs captive.time to restart the wind.nzdusd the,carry canary,is still chirping and not much perturbed.

Van jv 16:46 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
this am rather slow-
what can we expect from this correction?
EUR 1,405 or lower?
GBP
1.99?

Syd .. 16:24 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Saudi Fin Min: Oil Price Not Justified By Demand
Saudi Min: Sovereign Funds Should Be Dealt With 'Prudently'

Van jv 16:17 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Loonie sinks after Dodge calls its rise 'abnormal'

CBC News
The Canadian dollar retreated sharply in currency trading Monday following comments by Bank of Canada governor David Dodge on its recent rapid appreciation.""
and
notice timing of other currencies--was there a gentle touch by CBs?

Van jv 16:10 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:33Syd 15:21, according to former Fed chair uncle t." Rato would have a different computer and be watching different formulas and inputs""
or just simply realized that declining USD plus loss on investment results in cap. outflow to dumping---last TIC was an indicator minus 69.3 Bil...

ldn 16:08 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Airline shares rallied Monday ahead of a fresh round of earnings, helped by a nearly $2 a barrel drop in oil prices.

Hong Kong YH 15:57 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
for monthly chart NZD got a greater chance go to 0.6 rather than 0.800... what do you think?

Syd .. 15:36 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:33 GMT he is probably a closet trader

van Gecko 15:35 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:29.. help message for you over there..

Mtl JP 15:33 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Syd 15:21, according to former Fed chair uncle Al, "predicting future movements of the US dollar or exchange rates generally is very difficult." Rato would have a different computer and be watching different formulas and inputs.

Syd .. 15:21 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - International Monetary Fund managing director Rodrigo de Rato said there is a risk of an abrupt fall in the dollar's exchange rate and a rapid appreciation of the euro.

London HC 15:09 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Anyone else surprised at the way euro and others are struggling???

Global-View 14:51 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Mahmood, check your email

Morristown GG 14:22 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, I echo Sir Larry. You get a lot of flak sometimes, but your summary of recent posts help us see your thinking. For example in one post you will say, Just short the Euro and sit back and be happy" etc. To some it sounds so confident - over confident because few of us could say such a thing. In your case, it seems your confidence is justified. If you were so say a bit more with your posts, it would add credibility and help us take you seriously as you justly deserve. Another example is your reminder that yen are borrowed for all manor of Carry Trade - "paper" equities, commodities, oil, as well as high yeilders. Unwinding is unwinding, and requires buying back dollars, or will have a deflationary affect on assets that were previously being inflated by a dropping dollar.

Syd .. 14:21 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Iraq Pres Says Turkish Kurd Rebel Grp To Call Ceasefire -TV

Como Perrie 13:59 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
this usdjpy appears ready for another test lower

Syd .. 13:55 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
DOW 26.50 (0.20%)-

HK Kevin 13:33 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:40 GMT, better include a footnote in your post on the source of these totally unground info.

HK Kevin 13:29 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Hi van Gecko! a message for you in the Help Forum.

NYC NYC -3 13:29 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
there are many low grade SXshops that will go under.

Los Angeles BERNIE 13:25 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Zeus --- thought you were lost at sea. welcome home, very pleased you are back.

UK Alex 13:07 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
SAPPORO (Kyodo)--The Ministry of Finance on Monday ordered FXSapporo Co. to suspend and improve its operations after the margin foreign exchange trade brokerage, apparently hit by the subprime mortgage crisis, filed for bankruptcy earlier in the day.

The Sapporo District Court accepted the Sapporo company's request to begin bankruptcy procedures, the Hokkaido Local Finance Bureau said. The company claims to be saddled with a negative net worth and an estimated 2.33 billion yen in debts.

According to officials at the local ministry bureau, FXSapporo has emailed its customers informing them that the company is unilaterally closing their investment positions and that it will not be able to refund their investment money.

Vancouver Sir Larry 13:04 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Thanks, Zeus, for reminding us what a genius you are. I'd forgotten ;-)

madrid mm 13:03 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:59 GMT October 22, 2007

Stranger things ave happened b4...8-)

PAR 12:59 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Imho FED and Kampo could be doing similar deal as BSC and Citic . Fed invests $ 100 billion in Kampo and Kampo invest $ 100 billion ( financed with yen loans) in the FED . Then together they create a $ 200 billion superfund to support free markets .

Hong Kong Ahe 12:53 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 12:52 GMT - Welcome back Zeus. ;)

Hong Kong Ahe 12:52 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:40 GMT - Yes, LOL I wonder what Fed is going to act accordingly to make it a smooth market, going to sell more Yen or sell more USD? Timing seems not right and is now looking to promote Carry Trade again.

USA Zeus 12:52 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Ok- Permission granted. Few minor changes since we last spoke but interesting prognostications...

USA Zeus 06:21 GMT October 19, 2007
If these carries continue to liquidate watch out for the speculative dumps in EUR, GBP, oil and gold.

USA Zeus 16:30 GMT October 17, 2007
Red alert: Beware of falling paper (equities) and hard assets (oil, gold etc)

USA Zeus 02:37 GMT October 16, 2007
Feels like another exodus liquidation process out of investments, carry trades and hard assets and into USD's is coming.

USA Zeus 02:27 GMT October 16, 2007
Well here we go again. Looks like equity markets are ready to rock and roll in coming days. Initial risk is to downside.

PAR 12:40 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Paulson and friends taking on new yen carries at more attractive levels while CNBC keeps screaming about the so called unwinding of the yen carries .

Syd .. 12:38 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed the producer price index (PPI) rose by 1.1 per cent in the September quarter, with an annual rise of 2.4 per cent.

"There were hints the core PPI number would bring the Reserve Bank of Australia back into focus again," Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie said
The PPI does not usually have a strong correlation with the September quarter consumer price index (CPI), due for release on Wednesday.

Mr Rennie said the market was looking forward to strong inflation data, which would be supportive of the Australian dollar.

Syd .. 12:17 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Kroszner: Fed To 'Act As Needed' To Ensure Smooth US Markets

GENEVA DS 12:16 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Geneva

your feeling on EURCHF ?... we think here a big time top could be in around 168ish... so if this is the case, then we could drop like a stone back to 1.6250 ish end year.... and EURJPY... ? looks sick long term , but may be some last attempt to 163ish before 150 again ? any feelings there my friend ? txs

Geneva 12:09 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 11:38 GMT October 22, 2007

Thx

Melbourne Qindex 11:43 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is heading towards the weekly cycle barrier at 0.9808* // 0.9838.

isr jweb 11:42 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
no one congrats me. - for the first time in decades i got it right (because of trendways).

but too early to rejoice yet.

waiting for the american session

LAhore RK 11:40 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   


Any body think top is in or there is room for another upleg

that was my projection

Lahore RK 15:44 GMT October 10, 2007
London NYAM 15:15 GMT Thnx for the wave counts my swing trading shows like this 14170 /14205/14255* and 14347** can be a top out area other wise 14885***- infact on weekly cycles we are the top end of the range and possible of good pull back towards lower area of euro like 13928 area can not be ruled out by end of OCt or Early Nov from some correction sets in and mid dec can be very intersting on time Cycles
and thnx alot for sharing your view on the EW count

GL/GT

Melbourne Qindex 11:38 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is trying to stabilize between 2.0298 - 2.0339.

GENEVA DS 11:38 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Geneva...

you got it ! Congratulations on your openess to tell about your plans at 1.4287... One of the few , who have guts... really super... helped us a lot , not being overly exposed up here... keep going and thanks.

Melbourne Qindex 11:37 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : 2.0322 is going to be challenged.

Melbourne Qindex 11:35 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between 229.75 - 231.76.

Melbourne Qindex 11:31 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is trying to stabilize between 1.4178 - 1.4186.

Melbourne Qindex 11:29 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 1.4128 - 1.4218 for the time being.

Melbourne Qindex 11:26 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The bias is still on the downside when the market is trading below 1.4230.

melbourne DC 11:19 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
*|* that guy who short eurusd 10mil 1.4285 is now 80,000 usd richer ...

Como Perrie 11:16 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
this usdcad looks bit overbought.. plus oil influence so got off longs there

Melbourne Qindex 11:00 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Next target is 0.8709 - 0.8715.

Melbourne Qindex 10:57 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Anything below 231.18 is not good.

Gen dk 10:54 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 10:39 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 10:34 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Heading Towards 2.0339

Como Perrie 10:30 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
It appears this eurjpy wants to drop sub lower figure somehow

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:23 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
at least I was right on the toppish formations on Hourly in eurusd and cable..

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:22 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Ahe ...

tnx.. maybe the problem for retailers is they actually never been in the big game - the one you mentioned...

would like to elaborate in the Help on how actually big boys think in the game - the example you mentioned - the H-Fund would like to regain losses - he has to trick somebody since FX is 0-sum game... so how he will think to trick the opponent?

Melbourne Qindex 10:21 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.8858.

madrid mm 10:09 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
South Africa Bokke 10:03 GMT October 22, 2007

Thx
Same 2 U ! 8-)

Gen dk 10:07 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

South Africa Bokke 10:03 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:51 GMT October 22, 2007

Yes, it was great to see the "minor" teams close the gap to the more known rugby teams. I think the pressure was too much on French team , it was not the team that we know.

GL,GT

Melbourne Qindex 10:01 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 2.0408.

madrid mm 09:51 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
South Africa Bokke 09:36 GMT October 22, 2007

yes i did 8-) and it looked like the SA team was the more complete during the whole competition ! Well done to them and well done to England as well. 8-) I was so disapointed by the french team though, but happily surprised by the Fiji, Japanese, and Argentinian teams !!! 8-)

Hong Kong Ahe 09:44 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:32 GMT - I always post in this forum telling traders that Forex Trading is just like a chess-game. You need to think several steps in your brain before you really take the move. Prepare all the worse prior to prepare taking profit. Thinking about what they (the counter-parts) will act. Should you wait and bait them out before you act. Imagine yourself as Buffet and now your counterpart of the game is the hedge fund manager who lost a big amount previously in Sub-prime. All these are the technique of capital management and trading skill in real battle. All those chart indicators are still the same but one may have gotten a great lost already due to many Stop-lost positions were hit from both sides.

MLT PA 09:42 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
long eur/usd 1.4190 Stop/Exit 1.4190

As previously mentioned supply was found into the 1.4330/55 area. Critcal points for this week are 1.4375 - break above targets 1.4490/1.4535. A break and hold below 1.4185 targets 1.4020.

South Africa Bokke 09:36 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm

Did you watch Rugby world cup final ? Great victory for South Africa !!!!

HK [email protected] 09:35 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
A simple approach to yen possible price target
------------------------------------------------------------
For a simple and reasonable target for yen take 0.618 of the the move from the HI of 124.13 to the LO 111.57 and deduct from the HI of 117.93

117.93+((-(124.13 - 111.57)) * 0.618) = 110.16792

So if the price will go there, some of you may like to take their profits hmmmm.

In case yen value will break below 110.16 we shall have to come up with a new target calcu.
So for the time all may remember this significant level, but things may get distorted too in this highly emotional environment.

madrid mm 09:34 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR, where are you my good old man ? I need to to know the level where KAMPO and friends start to buy so i can start to buy this usd/yen!! 8-)

have a gr8 day gentlemen and ladies !!!

madrid mm 09:33 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens jw 09:27 GMT October 22, 2007
Thank you 8-)
i would not know about Plato and Co but i believe you as you are from Athen 8-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:32 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Ahe //
yeah - I'm Vintage (if this can be used) '76 - so what a discrepancy in age... and in the trading skill also..

btw tnx for the Help... when I read bc and jf and you and AL it seems everything is clear but what happens in actual trading is that I'm lost - I get an idea and trade it.. but then I see all different opinions with different timeframes behind...

so the challenge for me is to put what I learn to work in the actual trading..

Athens jw 09:27 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:59 GMT October 22, 2007
Good saying mm...this explains why Socrates used to always reveal himself to Plato...in reverse..lol

Hong Kong Ahe 09:24 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 08:37 - Wow, 76 years old. Admired and you still have a Cool and clever mind which is better than the young boys. Bow.

London Gooner 09:24 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 09:04 GMT October 22, 2007
-
I think eventually the weakness in eur/jpy will affect eurusd but not yet
need to see a level seriously rejected may be in the 1.44 handle.
Better wait before shorting eurusd - intraday still buy dips take 40/50 pips trades work well still.

Gen dk 09:21 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GENEVA DS 09:04 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
tks Gooner... question remains ,,,where EURUSD will be at that time... tks a lot

madrid mm 08:59 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
The Greek philosopher Epictetus said, "Circumstances do not make the man; they merely reveal him to himself."

London Gooner 08:59 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 08:35 GMT October 22, 2007
restest of 102 will be tempting if market closes below 200 ma on weekly (103.10 area)

Alaska Moon 08:51 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
It is 12.50 here ...midnight... good night you guys and will see you tomorrow..
Moon

Alaska Moon 08:49 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:46 GMT October 22, 2007
========
LOL !!

madrid mm 08:46 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 08:37 GMT October 22, 2007

" To wait is not a waste of time." old Inuit saying 8-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:42 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
moon.......

flat now.. I was chasing to make up for the loss of the trade I had from last night..
this usually ends up in chasing the market and that's the worst thing one can do..
will sit back - read the stuff again ... wait for the right set up.. and enter with lowest possible leverage..
tnx mate!

Alaska Moon 08:37 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:33 GMT October 22, 2007
====
Yes.... I learned a long time ago...It sometimes pays me to not have a trade for a week. When I get in this situation, I simply watch. Trading is more of a hobby for me as I am 76 years old with no pressure !! LOL
GL
Moon

GENEVA DS 08:35 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
LONDON Gooner

Do agree with your equities/USDJPY view... Do you have any elliott Targets on USDJPY on downside medium term ? tks

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:33 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
moon ...

yeah - I don't like it either... it looks like the move down in usdjpy will just accelerate than fill the gap first... the hOURLY LOW AT 113.84 is key I guess...
eurusd & gbpusd also look a bit toppish on Hourly..

the truth is I am lost in the Hourly timeframe and I better square ... read all the valuable posts in the Help and get some better trade when one sets up...
gl & gt!

Alaska Moon 08:21 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:15 GMT October 22, 2007
=======
Well, You and I both know that there has been thousands of sucexxful conter trend trades,,,,I would just keep my eye on it and maybe take a small gain.....
I have been trading long EUR/US for more than 4 months, but I am flat now....I just don't like this world record high number...
Good luck to you ...
Moon

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:18 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
other reason is ST - there is a gap onn 4H from 114.50/60 till 114 - so I bet on fillling the gap before the trend move kicks back in..

however I will be cautious below 113.87

London Gooner 08:15 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Equities confirm weakness cycle has probably started. Sell rallies which means same biais for USDJPY

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:15 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Moon //

definately this long USDJPY is counter trend - I assume a pullback to 114.50 breakdown level - then new selling will resume...

but of course I might be wrong.. much help innthe HELP forum -- tnx everyone!!!

KL KL 08:04 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
HSI33 if there is something near 28100 I may take a long from there....close 2/3 if 100 pips seen and hold the rest......key word THinking.....of this one day 1000 + points drop.....must be overdone like 1000 points rise....ninja must respond in kind

Gen dk 08:01 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Alaska Moon 07:56 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 07:47 GMT October 22, 2007
=====
If you would like to read bc's trading info, click on learning in the top bar and scroll down to Shanghai bc...
Good luck, Moon

Alaska Moon 07:54 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Also....
Jay has asked us to post using pairs and not weak US etc.
He is long US/Yen...
Moon

Alaska Moon 07:52 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 07:47 GMT October 22, 2007
======
Well, according to bc's rule you would not enter against the 8 hour 20 ma. So my guess....best to have no trade here...
Moon

Hong Kong YH 07:47 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 07:42 GMT October 22, 2007

May I ask, what you mean is long JPY is better than short JPY? Sorry, I miss that post

Alaska Moon 07:42 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:27 GMT October 22, 2007
long usdjpy 114.04 -- risk below 113.84
============
You probably don't want to hear this, but here goes ....If you look at the 4 or 8 hour chart the 20 ma is still above and coming down. If we use BC's advise, you had better keep a close look on that trade...
Good luck....
Moon

Hong Kong YH 07:39 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:27 GMT October 22, 2007

You think JPY will weak again? I am planning to long JPY

melbourne DC 07:30 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
17:26
*DJ Kuwait May Drop $ For Oil Under `Right Conditions'- Oil Min

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:27 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy 114.04 -- risk below 113.84

TP - above 115.21 (55MA on Hourly chart)

Spotforex NY 07:12 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Congrats to S. Africa for their victory....Great tosee the team lift the President on their shoulders after the great win!!!!!

on a sad S. African note.... the tragic loss of papa Dube last Thursday shows that the country neds to handle its carjacking crisis.

Melbourne Qindex 07:09 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 06:49 GMT - Cheers!

POLOKWANE CS 06:54 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Congratulations!! to our SPRINGBOK team winning the Rugby World Cup. Well done to England for a great come back and a great final.

denver jake 06:49 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:53 GMT October 22, 2007
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 113.12 - 114.31

Wow Qindex, so far that is an awesome prediction. I went short at 114.25 instead of waiting for the gap to fill all the way because of this post. Looks good so far...Thanks!!

jkt rick 06:22 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
eur: 1.4314, dont short euro till 1.4470

madrid mm 06:11 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
* G7 communique on FX: We welcome China's decision to increase the flexibility of its currency, but in view of its rising c/a surplus and domestic inflation, we stress the need to allow an accelerated appreciation of its effective FX.

* US Treasury Henry Paulson affirms strong USD in US interest, FX should be set by markets. US housing weakness will continue for some time. G7 has unanimity on FX, need for China to spped up appreciation of CNY.

* ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet says higher oil and commodity prices must be taken into account by policy makers. Monetary policy must remain vigilant on maintaining price stability. ECB liquidity injection not a bailout.

* German Finmin Peer Steinbrueck says EUR FX "largely irrelevant" to Germany as most of the trade is with EU countries. - TV

* ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi says Europe must learn to live with strong Eur. G7 message is for revaluation of CNY vs EUR. -paper

* Fed Gov Frederic Mishkin says rising energy prices over last 5 year raise risk of high inflation expectations, but underlying trend of inflation do not appear to be higher.

* St Louis Fed William Poole says Fed Funds rate are appropriately in the right place. If Fed decides to cut, it should be confident that it will not have to quickly reverse. Inflation is basically stable.

* IMF Rodrigo Rato says China CNY is "considerably undervalued"

* Choppy trading post G7, with markets taking G7's silence on strong EUR, weak USD, weak JPY, as tacit approval to push EUR to all time highs of 1.4348, after it gapped at its open of 1.4315-20 from Friday's close of 1.4305.

* Topside saw options related selling and offers b4 1.4350, triggering some short squeeze in USD, to 1.4307, which helped covered some of the gaps from 1.4305 Friday close to 1.4315-20 open today. It edge up again on ECB Smaghi comments on strong Euro.

* USD/JPY opened gapped down at 113.70-80, from Friday's NY close of 114.51, hitting stops to 6-week lows of 113.27, low since Sept 10 112.58, as funds sold JPY carry trades on G7 calls for faster CNY rise, coupled with fears of Asian stock losses after Friday's Black Monday Anniversary losses in US stocks.

AUD/JPY hit 1-mth lows of 100.24 from 101.95, NZD/JPY hit 1-m lows 83.75, pushing AUD, NZD down.

Calmer stock markets, with losses contained, saw short-covering in USD/JPY to 114.17, EUR/JPY up to 163.40 from its 1-m lows 162.50.

USD/JPY edging up back to 114.15, on short-squeeze in Cross/JPY as intra-day players caught short after the earlier bouts of stoploss sales. PBoC fix USD/CNY at 7.5055, from Friday's close of 7.5080, despite G7 calls for faster CNY rise.

GBP hit 3-m highs of 2.0560 on weak USD, but weighed initially on GBP/JPY sales to 1-month lows of 232.30-40, before edging back up to day highs of 234.15.

Cross/JPY could edge up again as Europe may push EUR to fresh highs post G7, past the options at 1.4350, as funds, Londoners come to buy EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD again. AUD/USD back up at 0.8880 from 0.8840.

Nikkei -2.24% or -376.75pts at 16,437.62. JGBs firmer on stock losses, 10-yr yield -0.035% at 1.565%.

Crude oil off all time highs $90.07. now $87.75, eye Nov expiry.

Gold had a choppy session, now $760.30.

madrid mm 06:09 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
good morning FX Jedi from around the world. 8-)

Melbourne Qindex 06:05 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY: The current expected trading range is 231.76 - 235.77. In the mean time the market is going to vibrate around 233.76 with an expected magnitude of 232.76 - 234.76.

Melbourne Qindex 06:03 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading range is 231.76 - 235.77. In the mean time the market is going to vibrate around 237.76 with an expected magnitude of 232.76 - 234.76.

Melbourne Qindex 05:42 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot center at 2.0587 - 2.0619. The current expected trading range is 2.0465 - 2.0587.

Geneva 04:53 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Look like allmost there is NO one left to sell the dollar!

Hong Kong YH 04:50 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 22:54 GMT October 21, 2007

Did you stop loss with your short AUD/JPY? High Yield currencies recover so fast.

Melbourne Qindex 03:53 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 113.12 - 114.31

Alaska Moon 02:42 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 02:39 GMT October 22, 2007
=========
Thank you !! Still watching !!
Moon

van Gecko 02:39 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
//Alaska Moon 00:32 GMT October 22, 2007 //
========
well done Moon.. you may be an honest exception among all those barking in hindsight, or with forsight but lack the counter human mindset to survive & make some money in this biz.. ;)


isr jweb 02:12 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
there is going to be a real war here. the downslide if itll come will be hard. as every curb does

HK [email protected] 01:55 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Gold recieved a blow on the teeth, lets see other commodities, the most important oil.
It is curbing time, to end manipulative values of commodities not fixed by normal demand and supply but by speculative forces.

On the other hand with the present volatility mind you if Tech. analysis will not work too well.

Syd .. 01:52 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Australia's 3Q PPI "a tad higher" than market view, "consistent with the market's fear that there are price pressures in the system, ultimately culminating in higher inflation," says RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong. Thinks data will likely add to view that key 3Q CPI data, due Oct. 24, will print higher than expected; "the fact that you're getting a strong PPI print is going to keep markets a bit wary ahead of CPI on Wednesday". Notes domestic activity continues to rise, "reflecting the strong underlying domestic economy and capacity constraints"

Syd .. 01:43 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Australian 3Q Final PPI +1.1% Vs 2Q, +2.4% On Yr

Syd .. 01:42 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Aussie 3Q PPI Data Beat Expectations

Toronto yv 01:25 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
canmore cyclops 01:07
thank you , still timed out on log in here .

Melbourne Qindex 01:20 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY: The market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot center at 101.72 - 101.85 and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 99.87.

Melbourne Qindex 01:17 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the odds are good that market will tackle 112.17 when it is trading below 113.12.

Melbourne Qindex 01:12 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between 113.12 - 113.83 for the time being.

canmore cyclops 01:07 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Toronto yv

no problem here

Toronto yv 00:49 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
anyone problem with anda ?

Alaska Moon 00:32 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 00:13 GMT October 22, 2007
========
Here is my take.....If the present trend, say for 2 weeks is the same as the trend going back for more than a year....that suits me.
BUT...I have traded EUR/US long for maybe 4 months very sucessfully and now
I am not too comfortable up here at this level....I am flat right now and....THINKING !! LOL
Moon

shanghai dave 00:28 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
Hi bc, I sent Jay an email and he has forwarded you the request. Please check and let me know, thanks very much!

shanghai bc 23:52 GMT October 20, 2007
shanghai dave 02:05 GMT October 20, 2007

Please do so..My pleasure..

van Gecko 00:13 GMT October 22, 2007 Reply   
getting the direction right does not make a better position or day trader if that thing between the ears is not right in this biz.. euro can go up to the moon, but you are only barking up the wrong fx tree if one talk & trade with the same mindset like the majority.. fwiwW..

 




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