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Forex Forum Archive for 10/23/2007

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shanghai bc 23:56 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

The largest US exporters to China are the southern farmers and Boeing while 70% of China's export to US are from US multinationals selling their made-in-China products at home making huge profits..US auto-makers are doing roaring business in China too.. How a rapidly rising Yuan will help US farmers,consumers,multinationals and US economy and help reduce US trade deficits is beyond me..Anyone who knows a thing about economy will know the right answer..Rmb's rise, fast or slow per se, will not correct US trade deficits at all ..It is more of the internal issue of US economy..Rmb has been rising some 5% each year against Dollar on domestic inflation concerns..Then,those who try to socialize financial risk helping all sorts of outright crooks and misfits are not qualified to lecture others on how to do thing on other's turf..

Syd .. 23:52 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Repossessions rise 'set to go on'
House repossessions are their highest level for eight years and the rise is expected to continue, a BBC Wales investigation has found.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/7056951.stm

70,000 buyers could lose their homes in mortgage crisis
As many as 70,000 homes could be repossessed next year as owners struggle to meet mortgage repayments, an expert warned yesterday. The quadrupling in the number repossessed last year would take the figure close to the peak seen during the property market collapse of the early 1990s.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=489142&in_page_id=1770

Gen dk 22:24 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Springdale BDH 22:21 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 19:08 GMT

Well stated, I have observed the same over the years, and learned that from the school of hard knocks.

Philadelphia Caba 22:11 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
long eur/gbp with s/l 6938 and t/p 7000-15

Syd .. 22:08 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD gains overnight, buoyed by recovering U.S. equities, weaker USD ahead of expected strong 3Q Australian inflation, due 0130 GMT. Market expects 3Q core inflation of 0.8%; Suncorp strategist peter Pontikis says 0.9% or below will prompt "substantial dip" in AUD. Expects AUD/USD to end day near 0.8900; pair now 0.8985,

dc CB 22:07 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Stox:
fwiw. The rally in the Nas 100 today was basically on the backs of 5 stocks. Apple, Amazon, Research in Motion, Google, and Intuitive Surgical. Together they accounted for approx 26 index points of the move.

Syd .. 21:39 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

WSJA(10/24) Paulson Calls For China To Strengthen Yuan
WASHINGTON -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said China isn't moving quickly enough in letting its currency appreciate.

Mr. Paulson, answering questions following a speech yesterday on U.S.-China relations, said the yuan is undervalued on a trade-weighted basis, especially when accounting for productivity.

"They're moving it very slowly, and it's not reflecting economic fundamentals," he said.

GVI john 21:13 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
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Rio Tinto Analistafx 20:56 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Thanks! ;)

Lahore FM 20:51 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Analista,carry is back on its feet as posted yesterday.0.8940 and 2.0460 hold the downside and we shud look for fresh highs this week.keep an eye out for stoxx.

Rio Tinto Analistafx 20:43 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Hi FM!
Can you share your views for next 24 hours: gbpusd and audusd? ;)
TIA
GT & GL

Lahore FM 20:39 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

Dow 13,676.23 + 109.26
NASDAQ 2,799.26 + 45.33
S&P 1,519.59 + 13.26

Jeddah Abb 20:11 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP to 2.055 befor starting to go down ?

PAR 20:07 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Surging Japanese trade surplus , lower crude and weaker yen should Nikkei sharply higher . Especially japanese car manufacturers should do well .

St. Annaland Bob 19:47 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

Queeny, it's your dance floor from here ... if drama will not reach the market the next 75 minutes then it's EUR bulls and swan to sing their song ... the song before the dive towards the deep unknown, or not ... happy and good trades!

Hong Kong Ahe 19:35 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
PAR 19:30 GMT - They wait IMM close and buy it aggressively?

PAR 19:30 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Apparently GS together with Kampo have been the biggest buyers of USDJPY . That explains why USDJPY always moves higher during NY trading .

FW CS 19:18 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Mla evan 17:10 GMT October 23, 2007
Evan, if we see 1.47 on this leg then there will probably be a long liquidation massacre this year. I would like to see it stay in that range till say early November so we can see a sustained upleg after that.

FW CS 19:14 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
PAR 19:10 GMT October 23, 2007
Exactly, he is living well (750 M$ net worth) what does he care about the common man?

Stockholm za 19:11 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

Sofia Kaprikorn >> you will have to do it for your self, send me a mail. happy trades....

PAR 19:10 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd / Paulson contrary to the Us car industry is a big fan of a weak yen allowing yen carry trade financing of SIV s and Us treasuries . That thousands of jobs get lost in US car manufacturing is not his problems since he only cares about Wall Street and Wall Street bonusses . That s how he used to make a decent living .

Alaska Moon 19:08 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 18:43 GMT October 23, 2007
=======
Kap..... This is only my opinion.....US/YEN is real hard to trade.. It is influnced by so many forces it does not follow TA
at all. If you look at your daily chart...You will see that it has no direction for the past 30 days...It had moved up and down, but is not much different now than 30 days ago.
If you are going to trade, you MUST use a stpo level greater than the market noise. If you look at your recent trades, you are trying to trade the noise...
If you put up a daily chart of US/YEN and one of EUR/US, looking at then at the same time...You will find EUR/US has a medium term up trend, and is a lot more gentle than US/YEN...
I think you should sit a day or 2 and take a good look at what the market is really doing...
By the way, I am still flat since last Friday.....
Good Luck...
Moon

Vail MC 19:05 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, any interest in short GBPUSD at these levels?

Syd .. 19:01 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Japanese Retail Accounts Holding Back - BoTM
Japanese retail accounts are usually happy to buy USD/JPY on dips, but Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi notes that they have been reluctant to come back in after the recent USD/JPY sell-off. Heightened volatility is pinching risk appetite among these accounts, bank says. Adds that the shrinking yield gap between the US and Japan is changing the game for JPY carry trades. Advises watching US data closely.

madrid mm 18:53 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Take profits order (TPO): The opposite of a stop loss. For a short positions the TPO order will be set below the current exchange rate, and vice versa for long positions.

Syd .. 18:48 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
American automakers Tuesday said they were disappointed G7 finance ministers didn't call out Japan, as well as China, for maintaining an undervalued currency.

U.S. carmakers complained that an undervalued Japanese yen is providing Japanese competitors with an average subsidy of $4000 per automobile exported to the U.S. The subsidy for luxury cars is three times that amount, they said. With about 60% of the roughly $90 billion U.S. trade deficit with Japan resulting from auto trade, the currency distortion is having a significant harmful effect on U.S. growth, the Automotive Trade Policy Council, which represents Chrysler (C.XX), Ford (F), and General Motors (GM), told reporters.
The chief economists from Chrysler, GM, and Ford told reporters Japan's history of currency market intervention continues to influence currency market traders. Ironically, they proposed Japan could draw on their $900 billion war chest of foreign currency reserves to intervene in currency markets to counter that influence.

Traders have come to view the carry trade as "a one-way bet" Mohatarem said. Leaders need to "change the perception that Japan would defend a particular exchange rate level," he said.

The economists also disagreed with what they said was a single-minded focus on China's undervalued currency in the U.S. Congress. Legislation to overhaul U.S. currency policy should address the Japanese yen, as well, they said.

The value of the Chinese yuan doesn't affect the U.S. auto industry, like the the value of the yen. U.S. automakers sell relatively few cars in Japan, but have significant investments in China, where car-ownership is climbing rapidly. Chinese automobile companies aren't competitors in the U.S. market so far, while Toyota (7203.TO) has surpassed Ford to become the second-highest in sales in the U.S. after General Motors.

Giving a large developed economy like Japan a pass for having an undervalued currency, makes it harder to argue that a smaller, developing economy like China, should adapt to a stronger currency, Mohatarem said.
DowJns

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:43 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
za......
sorry - what means TPO?

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:34 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
yeah...

I think I made a couple of mistakes again..

Bodrum OEE 18:12 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm 18:39 GMT October 22, 2007

Za, thank you

Regards


Stockholm za 18:11 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

Sofia Kaprikorn >> why are you doing that to your self ?
You start of talking about transition into position trading..
Stay focus !! its all about TPO @ value..

NYC NYC -3 18:09 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
history of CBs is if BOJ means all that,
they will lose badly.

yen carry is about to give back 5 yrs of gains ImO.

BUD PS 18:04 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 17:57 GMT October 23, 2007

patience?

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:57 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
however I might be overdoing it but I feel USDJPY is very bearish on every timeframe nd I think to better safe in going short here...

I have missed the last spike above 115 and think it will be sold thru the crosses.. at least another test of 114 and if broken 113.60..

sold 114.62

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:38 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
for the record - reversed my short 114.43 USDJPY into long at 114.70... think the major crosses surge was today fuels by the move primary in EUR & GBP.. once the move there is done it will have some retracement that will be offset by Yen depreciation (USDJPY moving above psychlogical level 115 +)

however a decisive break of 114.80/90 then 115 will validate this view..

PAR 17:22 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
BOJ has made it very clear at G7 that it will not tolerate stronger yen and that it will defend Japanese exporters market share with all possible means ( i. e . higher taxes, lower interest rates, verbal intervention, watching markets carefully, buying USD , encouraging the selling of japanese stocks , and even considering Indian style restictions on possible capital inflows into Japan) By the way this sent the Indian stockmarket almost 5 % higher.

Mla evan 17:14 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
should be 1.4365

Mla evan 17:10 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
CS, my target is 143.65 for my new Euro longs from yesterday which is almost in your range but won't rule out higher levels like 1.4750

PAR 16:58 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
New Polish democratily elected government less than enthusiastic about Bush s Polish based missile defence system in Europe next to the the Russian border.

madrid mm 16:48 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
fwiw - You don’t get rewarded for how often you trade online FOREX – You get rewarded for spotting and acting on the best trades and these don’t come around every day !!!

FW CS 16:44 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Guessing we see a 1.4350-1.3850 range for the rest of this month on the Euro and maybe the early part of November as well. Overbought techincals need time to correct. Supsect we see a flat correction here and not much of a price correction.

Halifax CB 16:34 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
PAR 16:30 GMT October 23, 2007
It's probably better news for CDO creators, since that region is prime sub-prime, so to speak. Rather puts me in mind of a scam that got quite popular back when gas started going through the roof, - get someone to steal your SUV and torch it......

PAR 16:30 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Good for new housing starts as those Malibu tycoons are well insured .

Toronto MRC 16:20 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
jkt rick 16:14 GMT October 23, 2007

not exactly median homes. could be inflationairy as insurance cheques come in and lodging price rise.

jkt rick 16:14 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
USA 200.000 excess houses now reduced to 198000 houses, due to fire!!!!

PAR 16:13 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY to try another run for stops above 115.10 . Japanese capital outflows to continue on expectations of sharply declining japanese trade surplus due to deflationary higher crude oil prices .

Hong Kong YH 16:10 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
break 2.05, it is totally no signal to slow down, what happen to GBP?

St. Annaland Bob 16:08 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Queeny, 14283>>>14353 (70pips) ... 14030>>>14100 (70pips) ... but, this time it went violently down and that was only yesterday ... safety will make the trade happy!

London Gooner 16:08 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Gold bearish candle closed at 16:00 UK time. Daily trendline 749
should see retest possible break down this time around

denver jake 16:05 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
stop on all the open kiwi at 7537 BE, closed out long yen ..modest gains good day all

EU theEUROqueen 16:00 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
ah Bob a yards and yards from the usd are just watting to be sold on every rally but thanks for ur advice..i will do my best not 2 let u wine more than 150 pips...)

happy trade

London Gooner 15:59 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Aussie marked bearish hourly one hour ago. May see some unwind
prior to data event.

Como Perrie 15:58 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
crude oil prices continuing to slip... would we see tonite usdcad printing above .98 I guess

St. Annaland Bob 15:27 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 14:15 GMT October 23, 2007

this time, I cannot afford being the nice guy :-) ... better you join the ride in place giving me the pips of being on the wrong side(need close below 14240 today for assurance) ... 14500+++ needs ---13900 first ... anyway, happiest trades!

Hong Kong YH 15:03 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP is relatively strengthen. How come, today the data is not that good

denver jake 14:56 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
strange. DOW up modestly yet carries laboring...
added kiwi short at 7519. we'll see what gives

PAR 14:55 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
As Boj , Brazil Central bank is buying USD in a free market effort to stabilize rates . Currency rates need to be determined by the market ?

toronto Dr Unken Katt 14:40 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
just give him more, time 2-3 hours

PAR 14:30 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Bush giving a " Fidel Castro or Chinese speech " . He is alraedy talking for half an hour and did not say anything new . Lol.

EU theEUROqueen 14:15 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob.

maybe Bob..it dosent matter if i will lose u will be the winner....)for me the euro is still buy.good luck

happy trade

Hong Kong Ahe 14:07 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:47 GMT - LOLROTF, they are holding a bouncing ball.

PAR 14:06 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
I am hearing "Fox Financial News" is even more upbeat on USA economy than CNBC . Is that possible and still credible ?

Toronto MRC 14:03 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:51 GMT October 23, 2007
oh aud$

Tallinn viies 14:01 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 13:58 - in AUD yep.
right now 846,00 as I can see

denver jake 14:01 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
nice doji on kiwi hourlies.

Toronto MRC 13:58 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:51 GMT October 23, 2007

824?

denver jake 13:52 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
meant 7555...typo

Lahore FM 13:51 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt 13:49 GMT October 23, 2007
thanx for the suggestion doc.also no profit is bad.just rolled out of gbpjpy with a chunk.

Tallinn viies 13:51 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
from GS:
"507,000 ounces of gold purchased at an average price of $824 per ounce to close out all Australian dollar denominated gold bullion forward sales contracts during October. "

"The remaining hedgebook consists of a series of USD gold bullion forward sale contracts from FY11 to FY13 totalling 1.15Moz. Newcrest intends to close out these

remaining contracts within the next 12 months."

Helpful clarification given the speculation that more had been done last week given strength in Asian session most nights last week. Clearly, buyback, safe haven and USD

bearish support remains in gold which has steadily climbed from yesterday's 745.65 spot low to highs just now of 759. Challenge now is to top last Friday's 771 high.

denver jake 13:51 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 13:24 GMT October 23, 2007
Kiwi is running into all sorts of resistance between here and 7592..sold at 7545

bought yen as well at 115

took 40% for lunch, stops to BE..need to see if just a small retracement or a daily reversal happening. 7520 now is important for kiwi

Toronto MRC 13:50 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
CNBC blows in what ever direction the market moves. Friday doom and gloom any up move cheer the move.

toronto Dr Unken Katt 13:49 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
la hore , 5 bux only ?!?! not bad , short hyena its more profittable

PAR 13:47 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
CNBC does not understand low of gravity . They think and say that "what goes down must come up" while actual fysical and logical law is that "what goes up must come down" . LTCM made similar mistakes .

Lahore FM 13:40 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:25 GMT October 23, 2007
bought gold 754.60,stops later.
--
closed half at 759.80 for 5.20$.

Lahore FM 13:38 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:49 GMT October 22, 2007
over a day's time it would become clearer that we are on threshold of a new carry environment.present price action is early makings of that.
--
240 and 167 won't hurt over the week.

GENEVA DS 13:27 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Is this the official end of the SUBPRIME Crisis...?? My god , I got it wrong again... GOLD just was bought in big amounts at 761.50..... uffffff
here it is...http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agNUe.4oR6mc&refer=home

Lahore FM 13:26 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
jpy doing exactly as foreseen by Par and by me too,incidentally.more to come.

denver jake 13:24 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi is running into all sorts of resistance between here and 7592..sold at 7545

bought yen as well at 115

PAR 13:18 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Paulson and his friends continue to put on new yen carry trades . This , new super technology earnings , the Bernanke put and better than expected Us housing data will sent Us stocks to new highs this week .

St. Annaland Bob 13:05 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 12:59 GMT October 23, 2007

hi to you ... oops, we may disagree at the current point

Como Perrie 13:01 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
regarding the whole I do not see anything more at least clear enough for today.. so am taking coupla hours off ... cached eurusd bought yesterday too...

Como Perrie 13:00 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 12:51 GMT October 23, 2007

If you refer to monday's moves I do believe there was a clash of interventions and markets there, as markets apparently want G7 to go tougher

EU theEUROqueen 12:59 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
after the last day(erattic move) the Euro is ready to fly

happy trade

Hong Kong Ahe 12:53 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:21 GMT - LOL. They need a quackity-quack translator.

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:51 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:24 GMT

what do "erattic moves" have to do with overought or oversold? I am talking about risks of one way moves from one extreme to another in the course of a day with no real change in background news, data, etc.

Sounds like "Greenspanian" irrational behavior to moi. :)

jkt rick 12:50 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
euro 1.4257 euro on the way to 1.40 but collect it there as its going to 1.4460. has anyone read the book BIG BEN, its about a cute little puppy who does everything the master says. the feds ben is no different, it will do what ever it can for his master. helicopter will be known as puppy ben.

Como Perrie 12:40 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
cad retail sales mixed with good datas but with revision lower the previous...smoggy as they do like :)

just today have been looking at

CCB to issue 20b yuan of subordinated bonds

China Daily, China - 1 hour ago
The China Construction Bank will issue 20 billion yuan (US$2.67 billion) worth of subordinated bonds in November to replenish its capital adequacy, ...

China to float 28b yuan of T-bonds China Daily

Como Perrie 12:35 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
dunno how the market might interpret Paulson ..for what I am reading every day you see huge amount of new securities issued in China, so a growing market for sure..

St. Annaland Bob 12:29 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

as rosier the picture, so better Paulson's job done

Como Perrie 12:27 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
as It goes usdcad now back to .9650... dunno if holds or fishes some into the data release... ..lotsa focusing there I guess, some maybe did not eneter again there as just stopped there...overall I doubt this pair to see this year levels below .94 so am very large looking here

Como Perrie 12:24 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 12:21 GMT October 23, 2007

forex values are far far less overbougth or sold than stocks, except the yen maybe:))

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:21 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
interesting you see the "erratic moves" of the past few days as dangerous for stocks but what about for forex traders? No dangers there?

shanghai bc 12:21 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

A dialogue between a duck and a chicken :)

Como Perrie 12:18 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
at 8.30 today nyc time Paulson remarks on US-China dialogue

Como Perrie 12:12 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
impression like the whole erratic moves seen from last days to present spelling some hidden troubles somewhere maybe..dangerous for stocks again?

Como Perrie 12:07 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
huge huge stops on cad being hit apparenlty..doubt much much more room to go ,, even if the whole is somehow nervous as of yet with the g7 seeminly yet to understand by markets.

Como Perrie 12:04 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
maybe somewhere from here around to a 30 -50 pips lower if seen.. 9635 to .9570-80 or so if seen..very distant stops as It begins with the data release in 25 min

Como Perrie 12:00 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
maybe a good day to think to buy usdcad for larger term as It develops

Como Perrie 11:45 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
am letting the yen alone for today ..this is stop fishy congestion looking like... now cad data in 45 min the main course

GVI john 11:33 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in red navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

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Access accurate and free GVI



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Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
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Makassar Alimin 11:26 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
sold gbpusd intraday 2.0428, stop 2.0463

Como Perrie 10:17 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
114 heavy defended as from yesterdays... but might attempt down there again later or tomorrow as some rumors ciruclating bout a yuan next step in revalorisation to come soon

Gen dk 10:09 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nj jf 10:03 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
kap help forum

Oz fxi 09:38 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore RK 09:15 GMT October 23, 2007
EUR/USD need to break 140.14 pivot and what is coming :
do we have (a) or (1) then either (abc) or (1-2/1-2) or (3) on the way there.........

London Gooner 09:36 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Cable retracing 61% of yday. Again testing daily resistance which broke but was re-enterd yesterday.
Technically it is a good level to short with stop above yday high.

tokyo ginko 09:33 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn

Thank u, u 2!

PAR 09:30 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Sterling spikes on expectation that CBI Industrial trends will beat forecasts .

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:21 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko //
haven't seen you post for a long time! GT!

tokyo ginko 09:15 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
sorry, equivalent

added long usd/cad at 0.9725

Lahore RK 09:15 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Hi froum friend
IMVVho if Euro breaks below 14088* there is a Good chance of 13988 and then lower towards 13822** by early Nov -- but 14088* is very important here and on the top side projected short term swing tops could be 14233 and 14302**

any view on the waves from other friend
TIA

GL/GT

tokyo ginko 09:14 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
short cad futures at 1.0285 for target 1.0110-10120 levels

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:14 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
sold USDJPY 114.43 -- SL 114.90 -- TP 113.40

betting former Support at 114.60 now is a strong Resistance - the Monday Open gap is filled and downtrend should resume as indicated by the 20day MA..

PAR 09:12 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
The best moment to establish carry trades is when CNBC commentators start saying that the carries are unwinding . Yesterday was a perfect example.

St. Annaland Bob 09:06 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
-- YEREVAN (Reuters) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday unexpectedly cut short his visit to Armenia to return home, the Armenian presidential press service said.

-- EU’s Solana meets with Iran’s Larijani in Rome

slv sam 08:56 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
imo euro up to 43 before continuation of trend or may be reverse!GT

Melbourne Qindex 08:39 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 114.91. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the daily cycle pivot center at 113.97. Downside targeting points are located at 112.74 and 113.03.

Melbourne Qindex 08:22 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is below 233.21. The projected chart point at 230.00 will be challenged again. In the mean time the market has potential to vibrate around 233.76 with an expected magnitude of 235.77 - 231.76.

Melbourne Qindex 08:19 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD : The bias is on the downside when the market is below 0.8754. The market is going to tackle 0.8603.

Gen dk 08:09 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd .. 08:03 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
UBS's risk index now stands at 1.38, from 1.36 Monday, indicating the market is still in risk averse territory. Higher volatility in foreign exchange is key, the bank says. High risk aversion is generally bearish for growth currencies like AUD, NZD, and bullish for defensive currencies like CHF, JPY

Melbourne Qindex 07:43 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is below 233.21. The projected chart point at 230.00 will be challenged again.

St. Annaland Bob 07:33 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

good morning! ... I hope the link below helps ... good and safe trades to all! ... peace

GOOGLE news results for "MARGIN DEBT"

Syd .. 07:26 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Personal debt could sink ss Great Britain

It's been plain sailing for the UK economy thanks to a constant reach of low interest rates. But things have got too easy, and we've steered ourselves into some choppy waters, with many on the good ship Great Britain starting to feel queasy and out of their depth. I refer to the swell of debt.

German team censored

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/23/ccom123.xml

Syd .. 07:18 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
The dollar soared as US investors liquidated foreign holdings, ending at $1.4129 against the euro and £2.0276 against the pound, in one of the most dramatic currency moves this year.


Rescue plan: Henry Paulson aimed to stabilise the sub-prime market
Libor spreads in Europe's interbank market jumped to 64 basis points, roughly the level that set off the credit crisis last summer and prompted a liquidity rescue by the European Central Bank. The iTraxx Crossover index that measures spreads on corporate bonds has jumped 100 basis since last week to 364 yesterday.
There are concerns that a $75bn (£37bn) rescue operation put together by US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to stabilise the sub-prime market is intended to mask the scale of the crisis.

"This rescue has back-fired," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas. "The central banks don't want anything to do with it. There is a fear that the big four US banks are trying to hide their debts," he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/23/cncredit123.xml

Syd .. 07:17 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
New credit crunch looms
Fresh turmoil in the global debt markets has set off sharp falls in commodity prices and high-risk assets as investors scrambled for safety.

madrid mm 07:13 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:12 GMT October 23, 2007

LOL A cheap loan in YEN maybe ? 8-) And a lesson in carry trade .....maybe 8-)

PAR 07:12 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Looks like French finance minister Lagarde got brainwashed in Washington . Last week she was complaining about a strong Euro and now she is saying a strong Euro is good , since it offsets the impact of higher oil prices . What has she been promised ?

Syd .. 07:05 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Selling from Tokyo sent the Australian currency to its intraday low, Macquarie Bank strategist Jo Masters said, adding that although many expect the RBA to move rates, "the bar is very high".

Growing expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve Federal Funds rate cut next week, allied with the next RBA meeting falling in the middle of the election, means an Australian rate rise isn't certain.

Either way, Australia's currency is expected to move sharply on the CPI data as the market responds to the numbers.

ANZ currency strategist Cherelle Murphy said there is a risk that if the CPI doesn't justify a rate rise, then "we might see the Australian dollar selling off quite heavily".

London Gooner 06:46 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Both EURUSD and GBPUSD formed bearish technical daily candle yesterday impliying sell rallies.

Melbourne Qindex 06:36 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Other minor barriers are expected at 2.0395 and 2.0419.

Melbourne Qindex 06:32 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Upper resistant barriers are located at 2.0408 and 2.0414.

madrid mm 06:12 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
* Chicago Fed Charles Evans, says Fed cannot afford to be lax on inflation. Lengthy housing downturn still poses risk to consumer spending. Could have argued for less restrictive policy even without August market turmoil.

* Unnamed Fed official says Fed silence on Super SIV is not indication that Fed does not support plan. - Reuters.

* ECB/Bbk Axel Weber, speaking to BZ, says ECB "only interrupted" rate (hike) cycle on crisis. ECB needs to be "ready to act". Still sees medium term inflation risks, expects financial market uncertainty to last till 2008 - BBG

* MoF Fukushiro Nukaga says he believes G7 has sent firm message on measures to tackle subprime woes in US.

* LDP Kaoru Yosano, in BBG, says he places "complete trust" in BoJ's policy. BoJ has not fully normalised policy yet. BoJ should keep making independent decisions.

* BoJ Director Nobuo Inaba says that relying excessively on monetary policy to stabilise FX markets or reduce current account surplus is undesirable. Japan need to grasp risks for overall economy and act pre-emptively on monetary policy.

* USD/HKD hit lower band of 7.75 for first time band started.

* Talks of larger than expected Q3 loss as large US brokerage tom.

* Calmer markets in Asia today, as JPY carry trades recover and rise further after the extended losses post G7 sessoin in Europe/ NY where Cross/JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD were sold to fresh lows after Asian sessions, before recovering, as US stocks pushed high on Apple.

* USD/JPY edging up on Japanese investors, importers demand, but market cautious of huge French Eurozone bonds coupons+ redemption of EUR 26.28b hitting the markets on Oct 25, with total coupons of EUR13.67b, redemption of EUR23.39b for this week of Oct22-26, could see JPY repatriation, though USD/JPY managed to edge up again after fixing of 114.41, and hitting day highs of 114.67, but still hearing good Japanese exporters, mega-city offers at 115.70-80, and good options offers ahead of key 115.00/ 115.10, huge options expiry tonight, NY cut, could see good sellers ahead.

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY edging firmer, though having dipped initially to 162.40 from 162.80 on rumours of large Q3 loss at US brokerage.

Hearing talks of "need to sell" interest from large Japanese custodian, regional, agricultural bank and Japanese securities houses/ brokerage again in AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY today - like last week. Though, overall market players still buying Cross/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY. carry trades on calmer markets.

Focus on HKD, CNY today, as USD/HKD hit 7.75 Lower Band for the first time since the start of the band in May 2005.

EUR/USD firmer, but capped by Swiss, US houses selling from 1.4205-10, stops above.

Nikkei -0.14% or 22.22pts at 16,460.69. JGBs lower, 10-yr yield +0.005% at 1.580%.

Crude oil off highs on hopes of Turkey-Iraq talks, at $85.90.

Gold prices off lows, now at $756.30.

Lahore FM 06:11 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:52 GMT October 22, 2007
Syd .. 21:50 GMT October 22, 2007
0.8940 would wake the forces of carry quite fine.
--
not necessarily a sell at 0.8940 Syd.

Syd .. 05:51 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY Unlikely To Rise Above 114.80 - Trader


0536 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY aided by rise in Asia stocks but unlikely to go above 114.80 in Asia, says trader at major Japan bank; "there are a large amount of sell orders from Japanese exporters above 114.70." Caution on U.S. economic outlook to limit rise, too. Support at 114.20

madrid mm 05:30 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Gosh i need to learn how to trade gbp/yen and GOLD most definitely !!!!! 8-) SYSTEM MADRID mm SYSTEM !!! 8-)

madrid mm 05:28 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Hello and good morning FX world... .I know i know , FX (almost) never sleep 8-)

Syd .. 05:07 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Risk aversion is back. Financial stocks are plumbing depths they first hit in mid-summer, when there were fears that the credit squeeze might spread into a systemic financial crisis.

But if August’s crisis was about “Chicken Little”, markets are now fretting about something different – recession.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5772af50-80c8-11dc-9f14-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Syd .. 04:52 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD Update: Consolidate, risk seen for fresh weakness
FX CHART AUD/USD Update: Scope for return to downside
4cast

Munich Jb 04:34 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Thiought for the coming trade day..."an APPLE a day will not keep risk away".....prepare for more risk unwinding ( esp. in carry, ahead)...g/l

Syd .. 04:28 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne DC 04:25 thanks , yes agree hung parliament could be a prob.

Melbourne DC 04:25 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 04:10 GMT October 23, 2007
audusd has reputation of 'up the stairs down the escalator' still see the escalator , but must say its more like up the stairs running. would bear in mind those bearish calls as long as it fits the risk aversion/equities/gold backdrop. according to a local stock analyst , he is seeing the softness late oct/early nov b4 new high end of yr (asx).
so i guess that's the timeframe to play shanghai bc (and others) aud long on china/commodities demand (proxybhp). on that , iron oretalk going on next 3 wks. 4cst also favour aud long.
wildcard : hung parliament :))

Lahore FM 04:25 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
bought gold 754.60,stops later.

Syd .. 04:10 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne DC 04: me too , think it is cant see it anywhere else - a few seem to have sell orders on it at these levels and a bit higher talk 84 earlier

Melbourne DC 04:07 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 03:09 GMT October 23, 2007
would u be able to check/confirm ... think that's from last week or week b4 .
anyway .. lots of analysts shorting aud now .. ifr citifx tgt around 0.8550.

Syd .. 03:30 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   

German team censored UK economic 'miracle' as a sham

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=M5AO3WEOULPAJQFIQMGCFGGAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/10/22/bcnuksham122.xml

Syd .. 03:09 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
It could be time to short the commodity currencies - historically a very profitable bet if it's placed at the right time, says Merrill Lynch. Says it's selling an equally-weighted basket of AUD, CAD, NOK, NZD vs USD. Commodity currencies as a group are just too crowded, the bank says

was emailed this by trader

Melbourne Qindex 03:01 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is likely that the market will vibrate around 2.0339 with an expected magnitude of 2.0298 - 2.0381 for the time being. After Asian session the magnitude may increase to 2.0256 - 2.0422.

Melbourne Qindex 02:58 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 02:18 GMT - I will post them later in the day.

USA BAY 02:18 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
MELBOURNE QINDEX,

DR Q, Can you please post the analysis for aud/cad and gbp/jpy. tia

Melbourne Qindex 02:10 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the daily cycle pivot center at 2.0303 - 2.0395.

Melbourne Qindex 02:07 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below the 3-day cycle pivot center at 2.0404* - 2.0470*. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the daily cycle pivot center at 2.0303. projected resistant barriers are located at 2.0349 and 2.0360.

california 02:06 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
there is a huge firestorm in San Diego California

Syd .. 01:57 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
Japanese investors are growing increasingly nervous about the possibility of a downturn in the stock market as uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy grows and as the yen gains against the dollar, The Nikkei reported in its Tuesday morning edition.

The reporting season for interim business results goes into full swing in the second half of this week in Japan. Many companies will also likely announce revised full-year projections together with the half-year earnings figures.


Syd .. 01:32 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
US Dollar Posts Largest Rally against Euro Since 2005 - Forex Speculators Fear Turn
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/US_Dollar_Posts_Largest_Rally_1193075015122.html


US Dollar Major Reversal
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/US_Dollar_Major_Reversal_1193058017168.html

Syd .. 00:00 GMT October 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD to consolidate, undermined by downward correction in gold, commodity prices; but downside limited by expectations of further RBA interest rate tightening after data yesterday show Australia 3Q PPI higher than expected

 




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