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Forex Forum Archive for 10/25/2007

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shanghai bc 23:59 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 23:37 GMT October 25, 2007

The groups exist in financcial markets in Tokyo,Shanghai,Hongkong,London and Newyork although the names they use are a bit different..Any free market can exist within the framework of a state and any state can never be a free enterprise:)

Syd .. 23:57 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD to consolidate after touching new 23-year high of 0.9087 overnight (according to EBS), underpinned by increased expectations for RBA November interest rate hike to 6.75%, expectations of Fed rate cut next week, strong gold/commodity prices; but gains may be tempered by profit-taking on long AUD/JPY carry trades. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish near overbought, but MACD remains bearish.

FW CS 23:53 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 23:48 GMT October 25, 2007
See my previuos post below for all the links to the Working Group aka Plunge Protection Team. Some beleive they do not exist. They probaby are not in the market every day but one has to wonder with the Dow ever since a GS guy like Paulson took over at the US Treasury the DOw has not even corrected more that 10% off any peak, Very unusual even in the stongest bull markets.

Syd .. 23:51 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Costello says economic reforms in China could create significant global market dislocation in coming years; notes unpegging CNY will trigger market "seismic" shift with global reverberations. "The day they decide to float their currency, you are going to get a huge reversal of financial flows around the world, which will affect all exchange rates." Expects volatility in lead-up to a potential CNY revaluation. Comments come in middle of Australian election campaign

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:48 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 23:37 GMT October 25, 2007
shanghai bc 23:06 GMT October 25, 2007

would you like to elaborate a bit more on that Working Group operations?

FW CS 23:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:06 GMT October 25, 2007
I just mentioned these guys as some here do not believe they exist. As you said earlier there is no such thing as a free market (Save black markets kind of ironic)

Doa Bob 23:28 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 23:06 GMT October 25, 2007

Doa Bob 20:29 GMT >> lol….
nowadays. You are not getting any freebies signal service . That is why you say old posts were truly great.
Contact GV their know some good SSP


No wonder, first you showed people how great your trades were, then let them know you provide signal. Good strategy.

Toronto MRC 23:21 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd

All the best.

Syd .. 23:16 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 23:13 Aussie actually printed a surplus when it was lower but since then been downhill all the way , and as you say very dependent on the good times

Toronto MRC 23:13 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 23:11 GMT October 25, 2007

Canada dependent on trade with U.S. and a booming construction market for employment so both aud and cad face some downside risk.

USA BAY 23:11 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn,

Precisely aud/usd new highs, my point too, still see a bullish tone in near and mid term. Anyway good luck to all those guys shorting it. hope it turns out your way. I am flat till fed. gt/gl

Syd .. 23:11 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 23:05 GMT Australia has a huge deficit 6%GDP as bad as the USA even with all the exports and getting bigger due to the high Aussie , not like Canada none

Stockholm za 23:06 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   

Doa Bob 20:29 GMT >> lol….
nowadays. You are not getting any freebies signal service . That is why you say old posts were truly great.
Contact GV their know some good SSP

Funny how eur/usd is sitting in the middle of the channel from the May-November 2006 expansion….

shanghai bc 23:06 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 20:52 GMT October 25, 2007

I always smile when the Working Group on Financial Markets is mentioned because the name is exactly the same as the one doing the same work here although I am not sure who started it first.. It is a necessary part of the market anywhere to smooth the operation although helping outright crooks using the public money is not..

Toronto tn 23:05 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Selling eur/cad @ 3840/60 for a final thrust to 3700, stop at 85.

re aud/usd: new highs and all anyone can talk about is selling. Kind of reminds me of how it went with usd/cad most of the way down.

Syd .. 23:03 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
The U.K. rate of inflation will remain below the Bank of England's 2.0% target until the second half of 2008, a leading economic research group said Friday.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said it expects that the rate of consumer price index inflation to dip slightly below its current 1.8% level, before picking back up in the second half of 2008 and ending 2009 above the Bank of England's target.

Syd .. 23:00 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 22:55 just makes you wonder if Bush has anything planned for Iran before he gives up his Job , especially they have the New man on the Iranian nukes

Toronto MRC 22:55 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:40 GMT October 25, 2007

Say Iran responded by cutting oil on a short-term basis? I would wait to see how Iran responds to non UN sanctions. imho The shorts could fuel the next leg higher.

hk ab 22:54 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, thanks for all the generous levels.

especially eur.

Syd .. 22:44 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 22:37 view below sorry about the size.

Syd .. 22:43 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Vail MC 22:33 GMT IF the RBA dont put rates up this time and I have just a feeling they will hold off for two reasons , obviously the Election and also the Ausse is doing their work for them - we do have a two track economy fuel isnt helping the situation , my feeling is they will take all this into consideration before waving their wand ,also the figure was smack on their estimate so not high. which gives them plenty of time especially if oil drops back , was listening to Johanthan Barratt , use to Know him back in the 90s he was saying oil well overdone and will drop back to 75 which in turn will cool off everything, also the Fed isnt a done deal so everything can either keep going the way it is or we are in for that Major correction especially the Aud its well over cooked

USA Zeus 22:40 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Ok- Final oil short add-on @ 90.60.
S/L set to 91.77

Rio Tinto Analistafx 22:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:33 GMT October 25, 2007
SYD,

Dont you think if there is 50bp cut by the fed the aud is going to hit the roof


BAY
i think the market is discounting that possibility. Buy the rumour and sell in the news
GT & GL

Vail MC 22:33 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd, read an interesting piece from one of my guys at a bank , they are selling here with a stop above .9125 so it seems to be a popular view.

USA BAY 22:33 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

Dont you think if there is 50bp cut by the fed the aud is going to hit the roof and perhaps heading for parity. tia

Syd .. 22:28 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD break through 0.91 likely to be short-lived in immediate term with pair in consolidation stage at these levels, Suncorp treasury analyst Peter Pontikis says; adds range of 0.9040-0.9110 likely in Asian trading Friday. AUD/USD currently hovering around 23-year high. Notes pair is trying upper end of 0.8700-0.9100 range; AUD/USD is "certainly coy about 'punching through'" 0.9100, any follow through likely to be limited.

Syd .. 22:26 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Vail MC 22:19 GMT got to agree with you on that

Vail MC 22:19 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Funny thing about FXC is that if AUD moves higher they will be right back with a bullish view.

Syd .. 22:15 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
The Australian dollar has been the darling of the carry trade set for some time, and it has just reached a new multi-decade high against the US dollar. However, our cycles claim that the days in the sun are limited for this currency. Our system forecasts a peak in the week of November 5 and not later than the following week.

fxc
interesting view

dc CB 22:10 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
As you watch US stox, keep in mind that Oct is the end of the year for mutual funds.

USA BAY 22:06 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
SYD ACC,

If you are around would greatly appreciate your view on aud/usd and aud/jpy which to me seems like its heading to 107.xx. tia

Syd .. 22:02 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
China's construction boom has benefited the world's producers of raw materials and heavy equipment, but its consumers don't buy many other goods from overseas.

The big emerging economies of China and India "do account for a lot of growth, but the initial impetus to growth still comes very much from domestic demand in the rest of the world and not domestic demand generated independently in Asia," Steven Dunaway, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund's Asia and Pacific department, said on Oct. 19.

That means trends in the global economy are becoming more, not less, important to China. Mr. Li, the statistics-bureau spokesman, said the weakening U.S. real-estate market, the fallout from the subprime-mortgage crisis, and high oil prices are major global risks that could affect China. "Because prospects for world economic development are uncertain, there is also some uncertainty about the impact on our nation," Mr. Li told reporters, adding that his government is ready to take what policies are necessary to ensure "the fast and stable growth" of the Chinese economy.
WSJ

USA BAY 21:51 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba,

If you look at EW, if the low at 8746 is wave i then based on the 5 wave theory 94xx looks very possible as there is no sign of a top, again just my view based ewt. gt/gl

Philadelphia Caba 21:47 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:44 GMT
based on?..

USA BAY 21:44 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
London Geronimo119,

Looks like aud/usd price could very well go to 94xx before any pullback, just imvvho.

USA Zeus 21:40 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Well here we are and nothing really moving so looks like that reversal is coming.
So- Short EUR/USD 1.4329, GBP/USD 2.0514

Happy Day!

FW CS 21:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 21:23 GMT October 25, 2007
I agree they probably are not in on a daily basis but you can be reasonalbly sure they are around on major turning days

Rio Tinto Analistafx 21:31 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 21:28 GMT

Thanks Syd!

Syd .. 21:28 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx hi sorry 24th NOvember

Rio Tinto Analistafx 21:24 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
I ask again to someone from Australia:


Rio Tinto Analistafx 18:21 GMT October 25, 2007
Hi all! ;)
Do you know the date of australian elections?
TIA
GT & GL


Thanks!

Toronto tn 21:23 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 20:52 GMT October 25, 2007

Even if there is a PPT, the idea that they come in and buy on any old weakness of a couple hundred points is patently absurd.

GENEVA DS 21:08 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
www. --- WORLD WIDE WINERS ,,, excellent book....

Syd .. 21:05 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
SOMEONE in the world wide web has dug up the piece of footage that could do more damage to Kevin Rudd's election chances than any policy blitz.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22634136-661,00.html

London Geronimo 21:03 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
0.9130 !

London Geronimo 21:02 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
meant stop at 1.9130

London Geronimo119 21:01 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Golden Call ! Start selling aud/usd from 0.9090, stop 0.9030. for a 100 pips. It's overcooked on all time frame + a psychologic level.

FW CS 20:55 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Few too mnay Euro bulls at the moment. It will be hard to sustain a new high from here. But if it does probably will not be a new power uptrend.

FW CS 20:52 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
I am sure you have heard mention of a Plunge Protection Team in USA:

The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets
Better known as the Plunge Protection Team

Executive Order 12631,signed on March 18, 1988 by United States President Ronald Reagan.
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12631.html

And also acknolwedged by the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/blackm/plunge.htm

And the U.S. Treasury Website
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/financial-markets/fin-market-policy/

New York Post on recent actions of Plunge Protection team
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08162007/business/plunge_protectors_are_all_over_market_meltdown_business_john_crudele.htm

Syd .. 20:40 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:38 similar to overnight range, hope you ignore that type of post everyone here appreciates your view tremendously

Lahore FM 20:39 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Thanx Syd and Moon,it is about preceptions really.gtgl!

Lahore FM 20:38 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd,0.9040/0.9110 might work.

Alaska Moon 20:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:20 GMT October 25, 2007
=========
Thanks, FM, for your post...There are a lot of us out here who are reading and appreciating your post...
Good luck....
Moon

Syd .. 20:33 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20: hi, agree with you a bit rude that was , where do you see the range on the Aud in asia today many thanks

Lahore FM 20:31 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Doa Bob 20:29 GMT October 25, 2007
lolzzzz...kindly overlook the garbage!one doesn't have to read every post.

Doa Bob 20:29 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
fm, Pardon me for saying this,

looks like you posted much garbage nowadays. , but your old posts were truly great.

GVI john 20:28 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
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Lahore FM 20:20 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
indicator expected and previous
GMT
23:30 PM JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) 0.0% -0.2%

GMT
23:30 PM JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (OCT) -0.3% -0.3%

GMT
23:30 PM JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) -0.1% -0.2%

GMT
23:30 PM JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP) -0.1% -0.1%

GMT
23:30 PM JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP) -0.3% -0.2%

GMT
23:50 PM JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT) 0.0% -0.1%

GMT
23:50 PM JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP P) -1.3% 3.5%

GMT
23:50 PM JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP P)

Syd .. 20:13 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
There are worrying signs that Vietnam could be headed for a property meltdown on a scale that would put the US sub-prime crisis to shame.

More worryingly, Vietnamese banks seem happy to inflate this bubble by offering initially low fixed-rate mortgages and fast-tracking new loan applications – just the sort of devices that caused the US property market to over-inflate! These banks are desperate to make up for the shortfall caused by the Government’s clampdown on lending to stock market speculators.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/marketforces/

Lahore FM 20:10 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Index Last Change
Dow 13,671.92 - 3.33
NASDAQ 2,750.86 - 23.90
S&P 1,514.39 - 1.49

GENEVA DS 19:58 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
what will happen to the markets... the day we will not have any bad news anymore... no subprime crisis anymore, no rumours anymore ?? probably we will not live that day, but just think... have a good sleep all ...

Mtl JP 19:26 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:22 / to remove uncertainty and to find out what something is worth: ( try to ) sell some of it.

dc CB 19:22 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
from briefing.com.
Floor Talk: More uncertainty in the financial/mortgage related names -- MTG, MBI, AIG & CFC
There are a few separate items taking place in the finance/mortgage sector today that are bringing a cloud of renewed uncertainty to the group: 1) mortgage insurance co MTG cut its dividend to $0.025 (last qtr's dividend was $0.25); 2) MBI plunged $10 during its conference call on questions regarding the co's mark-to-market losses; 3) there were mkt rumors that AIG would announce a large securities write-down. Additionally, we have concerns over mortgage giant CFC's earnings release tomorrow morning, which has the potential of being a repeat of last qtr's disastrous conference call that brought to light the seriousness of the issues in the mortgage industry. These factors, combined with yesterday's substantially larger write-down out of MER, are raising questions about the continued effects from the subprime mortgage mess, and how long these problems will linger... further color, we note that MTG's dividend cut raised questions about the inability of mortgage insurance names (PMI -11%, RDN -20%) to pay claims. We've seen weakness in mortgage names as well (CFC -12% -- reports tomorrow, TMA -9%, WM -6.6%)... MBI gave up more than $10 throughout its conference call (which began at 11:00), with weakness in the stock centered around questions about the co's mark-to-market loss on its credit derivatives portfolio.

Geneva 19:17 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Those Rumers will just make the pain biger later, as longer its take as harder it will fall!

PAR 19:14 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Most of those CNBC rumors are not thru . Remember Buffet buying Beat Stearns .

dc CB 19:09 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
well well well. Yesterday it was the Discount Rate Cut rumor, just about this time of day, that rescued the SnP cash from spending too much time under 1500 and its 50dma.

Today it's "rumor denial" by the crack CNBC team....woops :)

bear bait followed by a spanking that really smarts. lol.

dc CB 19:04 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
CNBC commentator says people in a position to know say the rumor of a write-down is not true. Says not likely to be any write-off, whatsoever.
AIG American Intl write-off rumors not true - CNBC

Global-View GVI 19:00 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
From GVI:

GVI Jay 18:58 GMT October 25, 2007
Faber on CNBC reporting rumors about AIG are not true

Syd .. 18:49 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Financial guarantor MBIA Inc. (MBI) said Thursday it cut the market value of its credit derivatives portfolio, resulting in a third-quarter loss and raising fears among investors that the market value declines could be reflective of eventual losses.

Rising defaults amid a weakening housing market have inflamed concerns over the performance of mortgages written in the past few years, helping drive MBIA's share price down to its lowest point in more than four years Thursday. Shares were off 13% at $47.81 in mid-afternoon trading, leading a broader selloff among mortgage and bond insurers.

London 18:34 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Iraq Lawmaker To Halt Oil To Turkey If Ankara Imposes Curbs

Syd .. 18:31 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Market drops on fear of more write-downs
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the Nasdaq and S&P both losing more than 1 percent as concern mounted that more financial services companies would report big losses from the credit crisis.

Geneva 18:29 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:28 GMT October 25, 2007

u gonna be fine on those one

USA Zeus 18:28 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Ok last add on for now. Short oil 90.48

Syd .. 18:26 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob :-))

From the front page of the SMH
From a young comely milkmaid to an irresistible juggernaut of Rudderness. This is Rudd - Mao style
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=32685

St. Annaland Bob 18:23 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 18:20 GMT October 25, 2007

SYD, if their name was CIG (Chinese International Group) then they went 15% up for the same rumor...life is a wheel ;)

Rio Tinto Analistafx 18:21 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Hi all! ;)
Do you know the date of australian elections?
TIA
GT & GL

Syd .. 18:20 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
US Stocks Fall On Speculation About AIG Credit Exposure

USA Zeus 18:19 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Added oil short @ 90.03

madrid mm 18:09 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
``There's speculation going around that AIG was going to take a large writedown,'' said Mike Capitani, head of equity trading at Caris & Co. in New York. ``The market had already been drifting lower, but that took us down another leg.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7KwZs6x_Rvg&refer=home

BUD PS 18:01 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:45 GMT October 25, 2007
long EUR/USD from 1.426 for run to 1.44+ in fact, I wouldn't hesitate to load long guns even at this level ;-)

NYC NYC 3 18:00 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
doom gloomers needed to create the idea of a PPT, to blame away their wrogness.
people that own US crop stocks as part of their nature,
buy more over time. Non participants can't fathom that and are sure its the quadralaterial commission buyin'!

I thinkstks are in c of an abcde 4, overall in asignificant bear mkt.

LJ BK 17:59 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:30 GMT October 25, 2007

We all have our reliable indicators. Mine is a local newspaper that predicts dollar crash from time to time. It should pop up anytime now but until it does I'm keeping my usd shorts :)

madrid mm 17:56 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
PPT = Professional Poker Tour ?????

NYC NYC 3 17:56 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
without question, trading desks feed off of insider info from
banking divisions etc etc.

Firm with initials g s ?eps might be halved were it not for ....

USA Zeus 17:52 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Short oil 89.85

USA Zeus 17:45 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Well it does look like EUR/USD @ 1.4320 and GBP/USD @ 2.0513 are setting up for a push lower soon.

dc CB 17:42 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - A senior U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission official said on Thursday insider trading appeared to be "rampant" among Wall Street professionals and the agency has formed a working group to focus on it.
"I believe we're going to see more insider trading cases," Linda Chatman Thomsen, the SEC's enforcement director, told reporters on the sidelines of a securities fraud conference.
"I am disappointed in the number of cases we are seeing by people who make an abundant livelihood in the market that they are sort of abusing by insider trading," Thomsen said, referring to cases already brought against professionals this year.
Insider trading "appears to be rampant" among Wall Street securities professionals, she added.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2558382320071025?rpc=44

London 17:30 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2529492320071025?rpc=44
Market sags on earnings gloom; AIG drops

FW CS 17:25 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR
Usually last hour of the session PPT comes in

PAR 17:17 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
At what time is the discount cut rumor expected .

London 16:54 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
FW CS he was over Help last week
van Gecko 15:31 GMT October 22, 2007
Subject:

Vail MC 16:47 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
I don't know how many of you were trading or on FF in 2001-2002 but there seemed to be a tremendous amount of experts calling for EUR tops for a time and obviously we have taken quite the other direction. Maybe Jay knows better than me but I was new at the time and remember a quite well respected GVI member DJR that I havent heard from in years that seemed quite sure of a EUR top. Bottom line is not many here have the stomach for such long term predictions.

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:35 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:30 GMT

this strikes me as nothing more than talking their books as all three have been USD bears for at least two years now. I do agree that contrarian thinking is needed when all but a very few traders and guru's agree on one thing.

Geneva 16:33 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:30 GMT October 25, 2007

They start selling dollars in 2001/2. Now they have to deliver the goods!
GL

GENEVA DS 16:30 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
The big gurus all did agree today... USD to go down lots... /BUFFET-SOROS and ROGERS... normally when press and Swiss TV is speaking about them, this is the day, you can make some money the other side... lets see this time... Timing could be perfect once again.... good luck to all..

FW CS 16:17 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:51 GMT October 25, 2007
I wonder if Gecko got wiped out? As he kept calling for a Euro top at 1.28, 1.30, 1.36. But especially 1.28. Hope I am wrong as I miss his postings

dc CB 16:04 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET DAILY | Online Exclusive
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
Will the Fed Fulfill Traders' Hopes
DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN?

Stocks rallied late Wednesday on rumors that the Federal Reserve would slash its key short-term rate target by a half percentage point, perhaps immediately or when the policy-makers meet next week.
If that sounds familiar, stocks also did a bungee jump on the afternoon of Thursday, Aug. 16, when there were rampant rumors of an emergency Fed meeting to come to the rescue of the credit and equity markets, which seemed on the verge of meltdown. From a 400-point collapse, the Dow Jones Industrial Average came roaring back to finish virtually unchanged.
The next day, those rumors actually proved to be true as the Fed cut the discount rate 50 basis points (a half percentage point) to come to the rescue of the financial sector. That's clearly apparent looking at those stocks.
The all-purpose Financial Select SPDR exchange-traded fund was down as much as 2% that day, but ended flat. And Countrywide Financial, ground zero for the mortgage maelstrom, was down 20% at its nadir that day, but surged back to end up a few pennies.

Maybe the markets inferred, correctly, that conditions were so dire that the Fed could no longer stand pat, that something had to give. Or maybe a discreet text message was sent from some junior staffer in Washington to a college buddy on a trading desk in Manhattan or Greenwich: "CVR SHRTS, GO LNG."

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119326391885970455.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Cbj Jake 16:01 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus(13:21) - Hello! and nice quote from Seykota: "A trend does not exist." In similar fashion, You/I do not exist, The present moment cannot be grasped by the mind. As soon as the mind objectifies(makes an object of) "the now" it is already past. To objectify is conceptual and,"de essencia", consensual and illusory. Mind is the principle of objectification

We constantly think/do to sustain the continuity of this cultured self. If there is no object there is no subject. This historical mind cannot handle that. Mind has never known death. So how can it talk about life?

Gen dk 15:57 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 15:51 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
CS, I also wonder where GC Martin and Gecko.

Gecko, has the roller coaster on gold front waived?

FW CS 15:47 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
I wonder where EU Zorro went with his calls to buy Euro all the time

Syd .. 15:40 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
With friends like these, Kevin doesn’t need enemies
THEY’RE baaaaaaaaaack. Kevin Rudd tried to play dead on policy yesterday to keep the focus on interest rates, writes Samantha Maiden.
But who would have thought he’d find union heavy Joe McDonald and the Grim Reaper himself, Paul Keating, rolling around in his grave? Or that his appearance at a senior citizens club in Devonport would spark a walkout by an angry Tasmanian accordion player and claims he was a “censored” for bringing politics to the old folks’ party? If anything could signal a campaign lift for the Coalition it was yesterday and all on a day when the focus was meant to be about John Howard’s broken promises. Keating, who delightfully described the Prime Minister as “that little desiccated coconut”, chose yesterday to pop up at the launch of former ACTU union boss Greg Combet’s campaign for Charlton in NSW.
Unions. Unions. Unions.link

madrid mm 15:36 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Climate woes threaten human survival: UN

http://www.thestar.com/sciencetech/Environment/article/270383

will this affect curencies ?

Syd .. 15:21 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will appear on New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's radio show Friday morning. The two men will chat about capital markets, a Treasury spokeswoman said. The show, which begins at 10:00 a.m. EDT, will be webcast live on www.wabcradio.com.

Syd .. 15:19 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   




: BOE Lending To Northern Rock May Total GBP21 Bln
The cost to the U.K. government of supporting distressed lender Northern Rock PLC while it seeks a buyer or alternative sources of funding is mounting rapidly.

Figures released on the Bank of England's Web site Thursday indicate Northern Rock may have borrowed as much as GBP21 billion under a lender-of-last-resort facility announced Sept. 14.

The part of the BOE's balance sheet that would register any loans to Northern Rock grew GBP4.65 billion in the week to Oct. 24. The "other assets" category of the BOE's consolidated balance sheet rose to GBP33.78 billion by Wednesday, from GBP29.13 billion in the week to Oct. 17.

The growth over the week to Wednesday follows a GBP3.05 billion increase in the week to Oct. 17, a GBP2.2 billion increase in the week to Oct. 10, a GBP2.91 billion increase in the week to Oct. 3, a GBP4.87 billion gain in the week to Sept. 26 and a GBP2.88 billion rise in the week to Sept. 19.

Analysts say it is unusual for the value of the "other assets" section to rise sharply, and that the amount had remained in a GBP11 billion to GBP14 billion range over the year to September.

The gains in the other assets section suggest Northern Rock could have borrowed as much as GBP21 billion using its special credit facility with the BOE.

The BOE said Sept. 14 that it had provided Northern Rock with a credit facility to help fund its operations during the global liquidity crisis. It is also allowing the company to borrow against all of its assets, marking a significant loosening in the central bank's normal collateral requirements.

Both the BOE and Northern Rock declined to comment on the figures.

"We don't provide any commentary about our use of the BOE facility, whether drawdowns or repayments," a spokeswoman for Northern Rock said.

Earlier Thursday, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said that it is a "matter of urgency" that Northern Rock's board of directors come up with proposals to end the lenders' reliance on government aid, although he added that they have until early February to present their plan to the government.

Makassar Alimin 15:17 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
could be a precursor of another 200-300 pips drop for gbpusd once day low taken

HK Kevin 15:17 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
It's another stock vs yen carry trade day.

HK [email protected] 15:16 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
I just wonder where are those Japanese housewives selling before yen with such great enthusiasm. Why they dont buy it now with the same spirit. Maybe they dont trust Jim Rogers.

hk ab 15:11 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
thanks very much and congrat. your winning golden boat.

HK [email protected] 15:08 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
The band 114.20-114.30 is the interesting part for the yen.
If those who want to push it above it will not succeed in doing so, they may have to part from some of their money on top of what they have completely lost in other trades.

London Geronimo 15:00 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 14:53 GMT October 25, 2007
'cause I can't sleep with trades on the fire. Thinking it will get to 1.48 just makes me favor a purchase more than a sale.

Geneva 14:56 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Sell euro stop @ 50s'

Philadelphia Caba 14:53 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
London Geronimo 14:50 GMT
so why 'just' 40 pips t/p?

London Geronimo 14:50 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Long eur/usd at 1.43 , stop 1.4285 for 1.4340
Euro is extremely bullish on weekly chart, I won't be surprised to see 1.48 by the end of december

madrid mm 14:43 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
does anyone expect a rate cut from the Fed ?
I don t ...but then again i did not expect one last time so.... LOL

madrid mm 14:31 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
meanwhile aud/usd is closig on its high....8-)
parity b4 the end of the month maybe ....lol

hk ab 14:29 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
they may liquidate to get some Xmas gift money for the kids.

hk ab 14:28 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
culprit maybe all the yen crosses at the same time.

hk ab 14:26 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
mm, my interpretation is after the major big move, now it should be the crosses turn.

madrid mm 14:25 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:19 GMT October 25, 2007

yes indeed something is brewing. David C is up to his tricks again...
fwi
There seems to me a nice 2 ways flow right now on the usd/yen and the euro/usd... and one will have to give way ....8-)

Brisbane Flip 14:24 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR the expectations were for 775K and they came in at 770k so on expectations. They retooled August lower from 795K to 735K so any bounce is just a statistical trick of the light. If you make the previous month more horrendous it's a bounce. Anyone who actually watched these numbers realises that during 2006 the monthly downgrading of previous months data (to flatter the current) was de regeur.

PAR 14:20 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
On Us new home sales turning an actual decline in a perceived increase is something which even David Copperfield would not manage to achieve . Well done .

hk ab 14:20 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
same is now happening between gold, yen and silver.

hk ab 14:19 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
mm, no, this is a divergence of cad with other cousins....something brewing.

madrid mm 14:17 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
usd/yen is holding quite well so far today, isn t it ? 114 does n t want to break...

USA Zeus 14:12 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money"- Ed Seykota

madrid mm 14:10 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:02 GMT October 25, 2007

this is a very good question and i do not know the anwer...However i ask myself this question everyday for the pairs i trade !!! 8-)

PAR 14:07 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
The rise in new home sales is excellent news . Certainly the perception that declines are over .

Philadelphia Caba 14:05 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab:
from thmsn:
After registering 0.9614 its new 33-yr low USD/CAD has rebounded sharply, hitting 0.9672 on the rebound. Perhaps it was just the fact that in May 1974, The Osmonds, David Cassidy, Abba and the Bay City Rollers were topping the charts, and perhaps people just didn't want to spend too long back there - platform shoes, glam rock the whole thing could become distressing.
lol..

HK Kevin 14:04 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
US September New Home Sales 770k, expected 780k units

London Geronimo 14:03 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Short usd/chf at 1.1665 for 1.1620 , stop 20 pips
Long aud/usd at .60 for .90, stop .35, 0.9090 is good to sell for a multi day consolidation.

hk ab 14:02 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
what makes cad drop?

Syd .. 14:02 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
US Aug New Home Sales Revised To 735K From 795K

US Sep New Home Sales +4.8% To 770K; Consensus 775K

USA Zeus 13:56 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Media is fascinated with caught up in the moment headlines about real estate and a few billion here then there in losses but ultimately prices settling much higher than a few years past. They miss the boat. Real estate has been and always will be the most stable market over time.

Biggest problem that no one seems to talk about is that there is a gigantic liability in medicare- NPV exceeds total wealth of the US (Does NOT even include Social Security). What's more is that there is no solution.

shanghai bc 13:53 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
NYC NYC 3 13:41 GMT October 25, 2007

Maybe you are right on that..The main damage is in ruining reputation for rating agencies and corporate bond market..It takes decades to build,but only a few months to ruin it..That cost may be in trillions of Dollars in coming years :)

Mtl JP 13:49 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Data risk

14:00GMT - US Sep New Home Sales
market expects 770K vs last 795K

St. Annaland Bob 13:49 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   

AUD/USD according to Kevin Rudd

Mtl JP 13:46 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Quote (paperback, page 159, 1989 edition)
Schwager: "What is your trading style?"
Seykota: "My style is basically trend following, with some special pattern recognition and money management algorithms."

Makassar Alimin 13:42 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
yen carry and stocks have been travelling the same direction for quite some time, might need a break from the old habit soon even if it is just for a while

NYC NYC 3 13:41 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
RE:$103 billion in housing wealth would disappear ./
I wouldthink the # will be far higher.

US total assets are what about 65trillion.

Someone is worried about a state/local tax loss of 900million?

NYC school budget is 14,000 billions alone or 14 billion.
900 acrsss the country equals about 0.

USA Zeus 13:41 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Peter Borish, former second-in-command for Paul Tudor Jones, lays bare the only concern a trader must have:

"Price makes news, not the other way around. A market is going to go where a market is going to go"

Como Perrie 13:40 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
MS sees US gdp at 3.5 pct

shanghai bc 13:34 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:26 GMT October 25, 2007

800-850 region is a good possibility although we do not have many days to trade before closing books for the year:)..

St. Annaland Bob 13:28 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   

PAR, Iran will be happy to get paid with J-10's ... also good for the Israeli economy

madrid mm 13:27 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 13:23 GMT October 25, 2007
Iam pretty sure te whole world will have to one day 8-)

hk ab 13:26 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
bc, do you see nt's end of year target 850 viable at the moment?

FW CS 13:25 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:21 GMT October 25, 2007
Almighty Zeus
Market Wizards? Good book I have it in my collection too.

shanghai bc 13:23 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:09 GMT October 25, 2007

That will not create any problem for Chinese buyers..Three of the world's top ten largest banks are Chinese banks..Perhapse,Iran should accept Rmb for settlement:)

London Geronimo 13:23 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
[100]

Short usd /cad at .60 , stop on new hourly high for new daily lows.

USA Zeus 13:21 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
trader asked a question:

I have been searching far and wide for a trader who can define a trend. None have lived up to the task...I have read piles of books and none have been able to answer my question either.

Ed Seykota answered:

Part of the problem you may be having in defining a trend is that trends do not exist. Like the past and the future, a trend is merely an idea. There is no such thing in nature. Trend is an idea about the overall average historical direction of prices; trend is a convenient way to view history; trends do not indicate the direction of prices in the moment of now, or even exist in the moment of now. Furthermore, The methods you use to define trend (to view history) are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend. Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.

Syd .. 13:20 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Two million homes backed by subprime mortgages will enter foreclosure by 2009, a key congressional panel predicted Thursday.

The Joint Economic Committee of Congress, chaired by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., also predicted that $103 billion in housing wealth would disappear after combining losses on foreclosed homes and the impact a foreclosure has on neighboring homes
The current tidal wave of foreclosures will soon turn into a tsunami of losses and debt for families and communities," Schumer said in a statement. "The (Bush) administration must act quickly to save financially strapped families from drowning in this flood of subprime foreclosures."The report predicted that states would lose more than $917 million in property tax revenue because of falling house values.

More broadly, the report estimated that a 10% drop in housing prices would create a $2.3 trillion economic loss.

PAR 13:09 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
With Us sanctions against Iranian banks I am wondering how Iran can continue selling crude oil and getting paid ?

Como Perrie 13:04 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
if this eurusd moves yet onto higher where lotsa odas are, I'll close down those usdcad bought today.

Syd .. 12:15 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
The European Union's business cycle has peaked according to recent data, the director general of the European Commission's economic department, Klaus Regling, said Thursday.

Regling, the top civil servant in the commission's economic unit, said that he expects economic growth to slow over the next two years.

In September, the commission lowered its forecast for 2007 economic growth in the European Union to 2.8% from the 2.9% it had forecast in May. The commission is due to publish a new set of forecasts Nov. 9.

Regling's comments at the Center for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank, follow a speech by European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia Thursday morning which predicted that turmoil in global financial markets could continue. While addressing a government bond conference in Brussels, Almunia said the Nov. 9 forecast will show that tighter financing conditions, high prices for oil and other commodities, and weakness in the U.S. household sector are affecting the E.U. economy.

PAR 11:51 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke s first discount rate cut was also precede by surprise and unexpected + 200 point rallies in the Dow. Somebody knows something... dont figth the Fed.

St. Annaland Bob 11:42 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Queeny, it's clear that you use Fibonacci extension on a monthly chart ... AMERO to born at the levels you talk about will mean lots of bleeding noses in Asia, lots of ... but, life are too short to see or to know it all ... happy trades!

St. Annaland Bob 11:38 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 11:37 GMT October 25, 2007

or not

EU theEUROqueen 11:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Bob..

1,49**-1,52**-------1,34**-1,35*--------1,62**-1,67**---------and the AMERO will born..

happy day

melbourne DC 11:11 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:06 GMT October 25, 2007
seems like today mkt happy to play the fed cut theme started y'day for equities, $ mjr n yen crosses.

PAR 11:06 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
With Bernanke put in place and carry trades firing at all cilinder this will turn out to be an extremely positive week for US equities . Still looking for new highs on stocks before the Christmas shopping season .

St. Annaland Bob 10:58 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Queeny, too early to use 1K pips s/l with EUR/USD ... but: 1.4140 (123.6%) - 1.4437 (138.2%) - 1.4675 (150%) - 1.4911 (161.8%) - 1.5207 (176.4%)

HK [email protected] 10:48 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 07:55 GMT October 25, 2007

USD/JPY are well placed to resume their plunge. For USD/JPY, initial target is 111.60,

HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT October 25, 2007
USD/YEN. Simple chart gazing on formation for medium term is calling for 111.70 target, Another of my projectons, which is optional and for reference only points to 111.50

Not a bad fit Let’s see ... too many think the same hmmm good reason to worry.

Melbourne Qindex 10:45 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is trading within the range of 2.0256 - 2.0594. The market is positive when it is above the monthly cycle pivot center at 2.0425. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is consolidating within the weekly cycle pivot center at 2.0306 - 2.0565.

PAR 10:19 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Darling " BOEe Needs to be able to intervene covertly ". Transparancy and English interpretation of " free trade, free markets and limited government " .

Gen dk 10:06 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

EU theEUROqueen 10:04 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob..

do u still short??

happy trade

Como Perrie 10:02 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
stops around some 60 pips lower for now might take yet some maybe if lower

Como Perrie 10:00 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
bought some at 9649

Geneva 10:00 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
The usd/cad need atleast 10% correction, if it is from here or the 0.95, it is not clear, it will come any way the next few weeks.

PAR 09:55 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Looking at censored CPI satistics . One conclusion. Japanese dont buy Italian shoes .

Jerusalem ML 09:48 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
1.435 next once again
next week Fed to slash rates 25bp again

good luck.
tip of the day- usd/yen Buy
target 115

Syd .. 09:48 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
German Econ Min: Too Speedy Euro Rise Could Hurt Econ
German Min: Pain Threshold Of Euro Rate Difficult To State
Risks To Economy Have Increased

Como Perrie 09:43 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
maybe good to buy some usdcad again

Copperfiled David 09:33 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
BoJ + KAMPO CPI 09:14 GMT October 25, 2007

I will find a way to move the usd/yen !!!
Trust me - my reputation is at stake with PAR
Lets get yen to 115.60 for a start today.

BoJ + KAMPO CPI 09:14 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Copperfiled David 08:38 GMT October 25, 2007
PAR 08:31 GMT October 25, 2007
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm


Shhhhhhhhh... it is a secret

Lahore FM 08:58 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 08:57 GMT October 25, 2007
lolzzzzz,yeahh.

Mumbai NS 08:57 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
FM hi hope u r fine .......u know what i entered the office saw aussy lvl thot of blindly saying yours but then opened my charts and hmmmm monthly looks ominous gl gt

Lahore FM 08:54 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
yes NS dear,still more of the same to come.

Mumbai NS 08:50 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Markets are poised these days that u just need the art of sitting in front of your keyboard with hands firmly pressed on the buzzer ----yours usd-----you have made a living for the next generation also gl gt

Maribor 08:46 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Did EUR reached "permanently high plateau" so retailers would have to close their shorts or not yet? Rhetorical question...

Syd .. 08:44 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
WSJA:OPEC Exec:Speculators Taking Advantage Of Geopolitics
OPEC Secy Gen:Would Worry If Oil At $90 For Long Period

Copperfiled David 08:38 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:31 GMT October 25, 2007
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm

PAR 08:31 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone knows the exact constituents of the Japanese cpi ? One must be a nuclear scientist to exclude all products rising in price and include only those items declining in price . Imho a sony walkman is probably still in the index but I have really no idea what else and Copperfield is difficult to contact nowadays .

Gen dk 08:30 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd .. 08:28 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
German business confidence eased in October for the sixth month in a row, due to a slight erosion of business optimism, particularly with regard to exports.

The German Ifo Institute said Thursday that its business climate index fell to 103.9 in October, above economists' forecasts of 103.7, but down from a reading of 104.2 in September.

"The results indicate that the upswing will continue, but at a slower pace," the institute said in a press release.

The softer data come after mixed sentiment for other indicators Preliminary estimates Wednesday showed that the Purchasing Managers Index fell to a 25-month low of 54.5 in October, down from 54.7 in September. The manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 from 53.2 in September, while the PMI for the services sector rebounded slightly to 55.6 in October from a 22-month low of 54.2 recorded in September, NTC Economics said.

The Ifo data also come after the release of a stabilizing ZEW index last week, after four consecutive months of weaker figures. The think tank's economic expectations index was unchanged in October at -18.1 points, prompting the ZEW to say that the most pressing financial market corrections have come to an end.

The 7,000 firms surveyed by Ifo assessed current conditions as slightly less positive than in September, but the institute noted the value is still far above the long-term average.

"There was almost no change in the cautious assessments of the six-month business outlook," the Ifo institute said.

Syd .. 08:25 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Watch Out For CAD, NOK Positioning - RBS
CAD and NOK are vulnerable to a position squeeze, says RBS. Sell both against CHF and JPY, the bank advises. Notes equities will continue to be key for currencies. "Fade any initial move higher in risk-positive trades in response to stronger US equities into last night's close," the bank says. USD/CAD now at 0.9683.

London 08:23 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Investors warned of slide in sharesThe credit crisis is far from over and British shareholders are at serious risk of becoming its next victims, the Bank of England has warned.

Lahore FM 08:17 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
mopstly better than expected IFO fugures released.

Melbourne Qindex 08:12 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD : Heading Towards 1.9590

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 2.0108. The monthly cycle projected series indicate that the market is heading towards the lower barrier at 1.9460 // 1.9590*. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is going to challenge the supporting level at 1.9738 - 1.9753.

PAR 08:06 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Contrary to what the japanese are saying the amount of carry trades outstanding has been increasing steadily lately .As Us investment banks are using more and more yen loans now that they can no longer finance their SIV s with commercial paper . That s why Paulson is such a huge fan of the carry trade and a weak yen even if a weak is hurting GM, Ford , Chrysler , killing industrial america and costing thousands of skilled us jobs.

Syd .. 08:06 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
UBS Index Shows Greater Risk Aversion
UBS's daily risk index now stands at 1.27, from 0.82 Wednesday, indicating higher risk aversion. Wider emerging market and high yielders' spreads are the key cause, the bank says. Higher risk aversion is generally bearish for growth currencies (eg AUD, NZD) and bullish for JPY, CHF

Syd .. 07:55 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY could trade heavily Thursday after Japanese corporate services prices rose for the 10th straight month, says RBC. Speculation of a PBOC hike has also weighed on the pair, bank says. On a technical basis, Karen Jones at Commerzbank also says EUR/JPY and USD/JPY are well placed to resume their plunge. For USD/JPY, initial target is 111.60, the August low, followed by 108.95. Now at 114.16. Jones sees EUR/JPY cap at 163.70 area. Below 160.45 opens the way to 159.60. Now at 162.81.

Syd .. 07:47 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan's currency point man said Thursday that speculative carry-trade positions have "virtually disappeared" since the credit market upheaval in August.

"The value of the yen reflects more on the views of the market on (Japan's) macroeconomic situation than the interest rate differential," Naoyuki Shinohara, vice finance minister for international affairs, told reporters at a press conference in Singapore.

He also said that there has been a correction of the one-sided currency bet of market players against the yen. "...When the market is volatile, there is no room for carry trade."

PAR 07:44 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Hearing from Tokyo Motor Show that japanese car manufacturers will not tolerate USDJPY below 114.00 . Toyota using budget rate range of 115.00 to 120.00 . German IFO expected to show solid improvement to above 100.00 on improving domestic economy .

London Nicolas 07:40 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
new brighton gvm 07:25 GMT October 25, 2007
If 0.9009 breaks then my next entry point is 0.8975

Alaska Moon 07:40 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
new brighton gvm 07:36 GMT October 25, 2007
========
Yes... I only posted that to keep us all "HUMBLE"...
Well, don't worry about the gain you did not win...Don't worry about the risk that you did not lose... LOL
Just IMHO
Moon

new brighton gvm 07:36 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 07:32 agreed - I remember buying a boatload a few years back at 0.48 - thought I was Gordon Gekko when I sold em at 0.58. Hmmm - wish I had held them a while longer

Alaska Moon 07:32 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
I allways have to laugh......If we KNEW which way AUD/US is going, we would have 100% of our account bet on it and soon would be all be rich !! LOL
Moon

new brighton gvm 07:25 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
London Nicolas - mate just kidding - I to am bullsih aussie but we aint quite at 1.9020 yet [check the big figure !]

London Nicolas 07:21 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
new brighton gvm 07:14 GMT October 25, 2007
My system rocks! I strongly advise you to keep your aussies;)
The trend is extremely bullish. Better buy with tight stop.

new brighton gvm 07:14 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
London Geronimo 07:08 GMT October 25, 2007
...
Long aud/usd , 1.9020

I'll sell you some aussie at 1.9019 if you want - how much do you need? ;-)

London Geronimo 07:08 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Long eur/usd , 1.4250 for 1.4310 stop 1.4235
Long aud/usd , 1.9020 for 1.9070, stop 1.9009

jkt rick 07:07 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
euro 1.4252 is is going to 1.40

madrid mm 06:55 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 06:51 GMT October 25, 2007
thx and peace and gt 2 u

Mumbai NS 06:51 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
mm gud day interesting question which is possibly the first confirmation of a cyclical high....but the way dollar is getting thrashed u never know..........that is the disclaimer but technically to me looks overbot.....peace and gt

madrid mm 06:51 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
just b4 PAR tells us about BoJ and KAMPO lol

Honda net jumps on Accord, CR-V sales
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUST25CW8PAN20071025

8-)

Melbourne Qindex 06:39 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 237.35. The pattern of the monthly cycle charts suggest that the market is going to trade between 229.75 - 237.35. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is positive when it is above the weekly cycle pivot center at 229.75 - 231.18. Projected resistant points are expected at 235.77 and 237.13.

madrid mm 06:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 06:36 GMT October 25, 2007

i tend to think like you , but....If....could...keep creeping up in my mind 8-)

madrid mm 06:36 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 06:34 GMT October 25, 2007

lol that too but i was to shy to ask on this one... true , stranger things happened b4 8-(O

Alaska Moon 06:36 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:23 GMT October 25, 2007
Does anyone see AUD/USD @ 1.000 b4 the end of the year ??
+++++++++
MM, I thought of a "clever" answer.....
I am best if I don't guess... LOL.
960 more pips ????? I doubt it...
Moon

madrid mm 06:35 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   

Does anyone see AUD/USD @ 1.000 b4 the end of the year ??

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:34 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:23 GMT October 25, 2007
gm mm! Anything can happen... personally, I have my sights on a bigger target. USDYEN parity ;)

madrid mm 06:33 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
News Highlights

* Fed declines to comment on Discount rate cut talk in NY session.

* RBNZ keeps OCR unchanged at 8.25%. Gov Alan Bollard says inflationary pressures persist.

* Rumours of talks of a write-down or "restate earnings" in the order of +/- $10b for a large US investment house.

* Warren Buffett expects USD to get weaker.

* Focus on comments from George Soros as well, given Jim Rogers, Warren Buffett talks.

* Jim Rogers declares US economy "in recession" as he said he would take flight from USD and switch his investments into currencies including the CNY. - Daily Telegraph

* US Treasury Henry Paulson reiterates strong USD in US interest, mkts to set FX. Capital controls "blunt" instrument, but will not lecture India on it.

* WSJ Fed Watcher Greg Ip: Fed officials are nearing consensus on several steps to make their deliberations more transparent to the public, but are likely to defer one of Chairman Ben Bernanke's longstanding goals: an explicit inflation target.

* BoE warns financial markets trouble is not over. Stocks, property, credit markets vulnerable to further adjustment.

* France' European Affairs Minister Jean-Pierre Jouyet says Euro strength will contribute to price stability. Regrets that international FX coordination is still insufficient to allow more ordered FX rates. Rise in credit costs helps to contain inflation. - La Tribune- Reuters

* PBoC sets USD/CNY at new lows 7.4867, hit 7.4834 lows.

* China Q3 GDP +11.5%y/y, CPI +6.2%y/y, IP +18.9%y/y.

* China Stats Bureau Li: economy still too fast, price rises excessive. China has prevented economy from becoming over heated.

* Nervous markets in Asia despite recovery post Merrill losses on Fed Discount rate cut talks, as more rumors more US houses may suffer more losses. USD/JPY traded tight range of 114.89 to 115.25, on back of 2-way interest in Cross/JPY, with focus on stocks and rumours.

* USD/JPY, EUR/JPY weighed by speculation large Japanese custodians, houses may need to sell to repatriation JPY for French EUR26.28b coupons + redemption hitting markets today, though good Japan bids at 113.80. Large expiry 113.90/114.00 today, said to be >$1-2bln, could see good 2-way options interest at 113.90-114.00, and offers coming in at 114.30-50 from Japanese mega-city banks.

USD/JPY dipped to day lows of 113.89, as Cross/JPY weighed a tad by losses in China stocks after robust GDP triggers fears of more PBoC rate hikes.

USD/CNY hit new lows of 7.4834, with focus now on USD/HKD, where HKMA intervened on Tuesday at 7.7500 to keep the lower band.

GBP weighed by BoE warnings on risks, dipping to 2.0458-60 from 2.05 handle,EUR capped by Asian offers 1.4280, while AUD/NZD hit 6-wk highs 1.1980 as RBNZ no change, RBA seen hiking, stops above key 1.2000 handle.

AUD eye 23-year highs 0.9079 again on back of firmer gold, oil. AUD/JPY off highs 102.80, key 105.

Nikkei reverses gains, -83.55pts or 0.51% at 16,274 from 16,438 high, JGBs lower post 20-yr auction, yield +0.015% 1.580%.

Gold firm at $764. NYMEX crude rally to $88, Brent Crude hit new high $85.13.

Melbourne Qindex 06:31 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : Heading Towards 2.4061.

As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is consolidating within the monthly cycle pivot center at 2.3824 - 2.4081. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is positive when it is above the weekly cycle pivot center at 2.3870 - 2.3962. Projected barriers are located at 2.4030 and 2.4061.

madrid mm 06:23 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone see AUD/USD @ 1.000 b4 the end of the year ??

madrid mm 06:16 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   

mumbai Navin 06:12 GMT October 25, 2007
pleasure. I don t know about foreing banks not able to borrow in Tokyo. But post your questionin the help forum, someone could help you there ..
gl

mumbai Navin 06:12 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Thanks MM

i read this page from google search - but could not glean much. as someone told me that non japanese banks are not able to borrow in tokyo interbank market. thanks anyways

Melbourne Qindex 06:11 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the lower barrier is located at 0.6934 // 0.6956*. Basically the market is vibrating around 0.6956* with an expected magnitude of 0.6934 - 0.6978. The weekly cycle projected series indicates that the market is consolidating within the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.6932 - 0.6987.

madrid mm 06:09 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi fromplanet "Blue"( so far.....) Earth !!!

madrid mm 06:05 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
mumbai navin ---- A Yen is Not a Yen: TIBOR/LIBOR and the Determinants of the Japan Premium
Vicentiu Covrig, Buen Sin Low, and Michael Melvin

Pricing in the euroyen market is based on LIBOR, the London Interbank Offered Rate, set at 11:00am London time or TIBOR, the Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate, set at 11:00am Tokyo time. The changing TIBOR-LIBOR spread reflects the credit risk associated with Japanese banks or the "Japan premium." The spread is modeled as a function of determinants of bank default and firm value. Systematic variation in the spread can be explained by interest rate and stock price effects along with public information flows of good and bad news regarding Japanese banking, with a separate role for bank credit downgrades and upgrades.

http://depts.washington.edu/jfqa/abstr/abs0403.html

mumbai Navin 05:50 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
can someone pls explain why TIBOR is higher than LIBOR. Also talk that foreign banks are not able to borrow in tokyo market. is that true? thanks

Geneva 05:49 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
we can sdd Turkey for the long list of the Bush wrong and fail policy.

Melbourne Qindex 05:26 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/AUD : Heading Towards 2.2570

As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is under pressure when it is below the center of the monthly cycle projected series at 2.2774. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the monthly cycle pivot center at 2.2530. The weekly cycle projected series indicates that the market is heading towards 2.2570 and the market is negative when it is trading below 2.2400.

Syd .. 04:50 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
to knock the oil on the head

Syd .. 04:49 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:37 thats how I see it once Bush has gone, and lets Say Madam Clinton gets in Power can see a whole new ball game with the Dollar , everytime its been on its knees they say end of the reserve currency but its not that easy , the deficit has been the killer - higher dollar lower commodities etc etc its just a vicious circle , we need a good bout of Dollar strength to know the oil on the head

Sydney ACC 04:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 04:26 GMT October 25, 2007
What we ned is a cicuit breaker- maybe a major drop in US equities of the magnitude of 20% or more in Novermber. November is historically the worst month for US equities. China could surprise and revalue, but that is unlikely before the Olympics nest year.
Come June we will know the nominees for the US presidential election and that could turn the dollar around as the candidates outline their plans to rejuvenate the economy.

Ltn th 04:33 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd ACC. If not the treasurer then, as I have suspected for some years, Treasury must have some very smart modellers. RBA's analysis IMVHO is seriously flawed in fundamentals and very limited in tech application to overall economy. Unless RBA has a deliberate intention of causing inflation by increased interest rates. They seem ignorant of psych effect of compulsory savings so that punters were happier to leverage this for immediate borrowings. Now at stage where they feel need for immediate real wage increase.
How much did real value of wages deteriorate during the last labor interrugnum? Do some sums and you may be surprised.

Syd .. 04:26 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:21 Although I dont like labour Blair was the exception , I think his dad was Tory also the kiwi hit the low so did the pound , but here we will have to see , he is already talking the talk .

Sydney ACC 04:21 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 03:07 GMT October 25, 2007
Syd .. 02:37 GMT October 25, 2007
We are less than 10 weeks away from the end of the year. The market is factoring in a cut in US rates and an increase in Australian rates before then this will push the differential in short-term rates ouyt to 2%.
The US economy is standing at the edge of a precipice and looking down. The dollar looks like a dog.
There has to be a major adjustment to underlying trends to warrant a move of 6 big figures in that time. Since its recovery from the late July/early August sell-off the AUD has shrugged off each piece of negative news and each dip has generally been shallower.
From my perspective the only aspect that may prompt a sell-off is a hung-parliament where neither Labor or Coalition has the numbers to form a government in their own right. Even then we tend to overestimate the impact governments can have on the exchnage rate these days.
This year we've had 20+ year highs in cable and Kiwi yet they have Labour governments. In Australia in 2001 we hit record lows on the exchange rate yet we had a conservative government.

Syd .. 04:20 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 04:11 well as long as your aware you will be ok.

KL KL I think my views come across quite clear , I came here 17 yrs ago which at the time was considered secondary to the States but now its considered number one destination from the UK to live , dont like what Labour in Australia stands for (Unions) and Rudd comes across very weak reminds me of a Vicar can imagine his wife tells him what to do.

Hong Kong YH 04:11 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 03:38 GMT October 25, 2007

we all know that. That's why local people and foreign investors are crazy to buy A/H shares even the P/E is high. We will quit the market before Olympic games.

Syd .. 04:09 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Ltn th 03:58 GMT There seems to be a subtle change in the US even Greenspan is toning down his calls, Jim Rogers has nothing left in the US to sell , was watching an interview and was asked how much are you talking , his reply was well my house and contents it looks like he has already done the move and probably suffering because he put money into yen sometime ago and to say he was a fx trader hasnt picked the timing very well with the Dollar on the floor at all time lows . Feel Buffett view the most reliable and you are probably correct a Democrate

KL KL 04:06 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd

.....so are you a Lib or Lab supporter.


Not sure why things are going for Labour when States under Labour are having Health, Crime, Councils,ousing and Water problems.

Very sneeky of Labor to slot in all these problems as Federal issues,

Perhaps Australia needs some Pain again......no matter to ninja....looking to buy cheaper property when depression sets in...

Perhaps China will lead the way lower for all who held back and buy cheaply.......BUT....its always a different this time story.....All Bubbles have to pop....its not if but WHEN.

my HSI33 trade nicely going...in futures forum

Ltn th 03:58 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
SYD. Is it correct that Buffet is essentially a democrat? If so it seems very likely he could be advising or part of a team tasked with repairing recent damage to US economy.

In recent months, something strange in Oz with retailers margins very firm and little interest in chasing customers. Wholesale prices are little changed though. Possibly the retail demand is saturated. Need more tax or super breaks or serious wage rise for punters.

Syd .. 03:38 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 03:30 They are determined to slow the economy and eventually they will , and once the Olympics are over a greater slow down ,why do you think Buffett is out

Hong Kong YH 03:30 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 03:10 GMT October 25, 2007

hope you are right. If yes, then can buy on dip for AUD, besides, another interest hike by year end for China is not a new thing, already expected. Citi is just say something all people know. Rubbish Bank

Syd .. 03:27 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 03:07 slow down in China is one of the major factors to look at .

Syd .. 03:18 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Another PBOC Hike By Yr End Looks Certain - Citi

Syd .. 03:10 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 03:07 nothing is impossible dont count your chickens before they hatch

HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/YEN. Simple chart gazing on formation for medium term is calling for 111.70 target, Another of my projectons, which is optional and for reference only points to 111.50

USD/Yen looks all too bearish!!!

Hong Kong YH 03:07 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 02:37 GMT October 25, 2007

0.84 by the end of 2007, 0.8 by 2008? AUD will have another rate hike on the next meeting. Impossible.

Syd .. 02:41 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
China 3Q GDP +11.5% On Year On Construction Boom
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA
China's economy slowed to a still-fast growth rate of 11.5% in the latest quarter, in a possible signal that economic growth has already reached its peak this year and could slow further. The third-quarter increase, announced Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics, follows the faster-than-expected expansion of 11.9% in the second quarter and 11.1% in the first quarter. The nation's gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic output, has now risen by 11.5% this year through the end of September. A major driver of that growth has been a construction boom along with heavy investment by companies in new factory capacity. Such fixed-asset investment is up by 25.7% so far this year. But exports, another major driver of growth, have slowed slightly in recent months from near-30% growth rates earlier this year.


Syd .. 02:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
/USD Could Slip Below 0.8000 In 2008 -St George


0151 GMT [Dow Jones] AUD/USD likely to slip from recent 23-year highs, moderating at 0.8400 by year end, and could fall below 0.8000 in 2008, say strategists at St George Bank; recovering USD, greater financial market risk, lower commodity prices and trade foreign debt concerns will all weigh AUD/USD. Pair now at 0.9023, below Asian session high of 0.9043.

Syd .. 01:40 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Coalition Government May Retain Control Of Senate Poll
That could bring long-term uncertainty for businesses and markets, with investors likely to demand a premium when buying Australian assets, including the local currency and equities.


http://news.morningstar.com/news/ViewNews.asp?article=/DJ/200710242004DOWJONESDJONLINE001091_univ.xml&Cat=ForMkts

philly JS 01:33 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Thankyou Alaska Moon and Jay for responding to me questions. Successful trading to you. Philly, JS

Syd .. 01:18 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD's bull trend may weaken a bit if German October Ifo business sentiment data later indicate deteriorating mood among Europe manufacturers, says Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ chief FX analyst Osamu Takashima. Near-term range would then shift down to 1.4100-1.4300 from 1.4200-1.4400; last at 1.4254 on EBS. "So far, ECB policymakers have probably considered their currency's strength useful, as it helps curb inflation pressures. But they would have second thoughts if the Ifo suggests (a strong euro) is taking a toll on manufacturers' sentiment

Sydney ACC 01:14 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Jim Rogers, the veteran US investor, told The Daily Telegraph he was pulling his money out of all dollar assets to buy yuan, yen and Swiss francs. The latter two have been hit by "carry trade" speculation, which must reverse at some point.

"The US economy is undoubtedly in recession. Many parts of industry are actually in a state worse than recession. If it were not for [Fed governor] Bernanke injecting huge amounts of money, the stock market would probably be down much more than it is," he said.

Japan said yesterday its exports to the US plummeted 9.2pc in August, a sign that contagion from the US downturn may be spreading.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=ZZY3FYYG4NGUHQFIQMGCFFOAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/10/25/cnchina125.xml

Syd .. 01:11 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
CBS News has learned a task force of agencies, including the FBI, ATF, the Orange County Fire Authority and the California Department of Forestry will announce shortly that the massive Santiago Canyon Fire - which has caused an estimated $10 million in damage - is being officially declared an arson, and a $50,000 reward is being offered to find the arsonist. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/24/national/main3401265.shtml

Sydney ACC 01:03 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Investors warned of slide in shares

The credit crisis is far from over and British shareholders are at serious risk of becoming its next victims, the Bank of England warns.

In an unexpectedly downbeat report on the state of the British financial system, the bank warns that the UK stock market is "particularly vulnerable" to a downturn.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=ZZY3FYYG4NGUHQFIQMGCFFOAVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2007/10/25/nshares125.xml

Global-View 00:56 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Philly, EMAIL us and we will help you out. It is very straightforward

Alaska Moon 00:56 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
philly JS 00:52 GMT October 25, 2007
======
You can access the archives by clicking on it in the top bar. You can only use dates [no location or name] and read everything posted. A couple of days is a lot of info. If you type in the registered location such as Alaska....and the name Moon...you can read a years posting...
Good luck..
Moon

philly JS 00:52 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Hate to sound stupid but can anyone give me advice about accessing archives? Efforts have failed and I know much wisdom, insiights and guidance can be found therin..Thanks!

Syd .. 00:37 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Sydney GE 00:30 actually didnt think of that, they will replace USA as best mates probably bit scary as Joe said rudderless

Sydney GE 00:30 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 00:26 GMT October 25, 2007

hahah yeh the new gang, China , Russia and Australia!!!

Syd .. 00:26 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Sydney GE 00:22 Doesnt look like anything particular just the same old story thats hitting the Yen cross's and would imagine the Election nerves setting in especially if Rudd has a red in his bed :-))

Sydney GE 00:22 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 00:18 GMT October 25, 2007

hi mate any ideas whats behind this AUD drop this morning???

Syd .. 00:20 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Rudd warms to union connection
KEVIN Rudd is set to launch a strong defence of Labor's relationship with unions as he counters Coalition claims that 70 per cent of his front bench would be former union officials with unrepresentative influence and beholden to their past connections.

The change of tack by the Opposition Leader, who has appeared reluctant to boast about Labor's union affiliations, comes amid claims the Coalition has exaggerated the union pasts of MPs. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22644220-5013871,00.html

Syd .. 00:18 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Costello warns recession if Labor wins
PETER Costello has warned voters that the election of a Labor government would trigger a wages breakout and plunge the nation into a recession.

"If we were to go back to union control of workplaces and go back to pattern bargaining and moving wages by awards from profitable to unprofitable sectors of the workplace, you would unleash such inflationary pressures in this economy as would end in recession," he said.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22644485-5013871,00.html
"And a political party which wants to reverse those changes is a political party that would unleash inflation and ultimately, as a consequence of that, economic downturn on the economy."

Syd .. 00:02 GMT October 25, 2007 Reply   
Australia's ruling Liberal-National coalition may retain control of Senate even if main opposition Labor party wins right to govern in Nov. 24 election, latest Galaxy poll shows; coalition's Senate support rises to 38% from 35% a month ago, Labor's declines to 33% from 39%. That's despite successive voter surveys suggesting Labor will easily win majority in lower house, or House of Representatives, where governments are formed. Senate role in approving legislation means if coalition retains control it could be disaster for first-term Labor government if key labor market, telecom reforms are stalled in upper house. Analysts say that may mean Labor triggers double dissolution - simultaneous election of both house of Parliament - within a year, causing further uncertainty for markets, ramping up premium for local assets like AUD, equities

 




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