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Forex Forum Archive for 10/26/2007

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quito_ecuador_valdez 23:55 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Wall St. & FX has assumed ("priced in" this week) a Fed cut = .25bp or .50bp at coming announcement. So logically we shouldn't see much movement for .25 at announcement (other than the general long term trend of USD shorting) but .50bp cut may get us some USD shorts. I wouldn't expect > 100 pip move vs EUR in any case like last Fed announcement, because that frankly was a surprise..a .50bp cut happened instead of the expected .25bp. This time .50 is halfway expected...and halfway not, much more expected at any rate than last announcement. A .50bp cut should get us a 35-75 pip long on XXX/USD. Since investors will begin to sell off USD then, a continuing trend to short USD will probably prevail in the near future (3 months)

Bottom line, it's safe IMHO to short USD even now before the announcement but you should keep it for a month at least rather than day trade it...don't get worried & lose $ by pulling out too soon. Over the long term (next 3-6 months) USD will almost HAVE to continue to short. Remember, the longer term you trade, the less risk you have, & the less leverage ratio you use, the less your account will be put to risk in FX especially if you are a newer trader.

Now, in case of a halfway surprise and Fed cuts .50BP, you'd best have an order in to sell USD because at that point the platforms may be congested and a reflex action won't get executed. Orders take priority over reflexes...that's just how it works. All this post was for the benefit of newer traders only...for oldsters it's all acedemic.

Maribor 22:15 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 19:37 GMT October 26, 2007

How can you conclude anything from that COT report? Well, large speculators long CAD positions(short USDCAD) are lower more than short CAD(long USDCAD) positions, but in my analysis some relevance has percent of large speculators net open position(without spreads)...and that is about the same last 3 weeks.

COT tells me nothing about "No more long dollar!!!!" Can you describe what in COT report tells you so?

Maribor 22:03 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 19:37 GMT October 26, 2007

Stockholm za 21:16 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

Re...GBP/USD…it looks like we lost the jul/aug value at 2,029x
With closing parameters given as 2,0910<:>2,0145
Despite a noisy, no progress week, the close above 2,0479 still bias the topside.
Unless fundamentals say otherwise.
Happy WE.
Re… Value at risk is psychologically not the same when you move from mini lots >>> to billions of $

bris 20:56 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Funny day
ALL Markets super bullish
Optimism at an all-time extreme ???

USA Zeus 20:55 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 18:26 GMT October 26, 2007

See how time value of money works? One could have shorted for that 60% gain in 9 months or longed and made 33% in 1 session.

Guess it goes to show that trading (and performance) is all relative. In the end it is the "trend" of one's equity that is more important than the excitement of the masses blindly jumping up and down near price reversal corners.

GT :-)

Gen dk 20:37 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 20:15 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:51 GMT October 26, 2007

Indeed in fact even more so as they may have oil but no refining capacity which makes it hard to fuel their army troop hauling pickup trucks and little pirate ship gun boats.

Cheers!

Geneva 19:43 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
i LIKE IT!

gw

Alaska Moon 19:43 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
It might take a while...reading this forum....for the new traders......But you will finally be able to see who is "Talking
their book"...It turns out that that info is not worth much !!! LOL
Moon

NYC jr 19:43 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
I think it was more to do with the evil republicans down at the nymex deciding to change the grade of deliverable gasoline and launch a new replacement rbob contract.

GENEVA DS 19:41 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Geneva.... SELL CAD .... and BUY MXN.... we mentioned that this week... Mexico just highered interest reates today... good game...

Geneva 19:37 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
No more Long dollar!!!!

CANADIAN DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-090741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 10/23/07 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF CAD 100,000) OPEN INTEREST: 140,205
COMMITMENTS
82,625 11,302 2,525 20,742 103,728 105,892 117,555 34,313 22,650

CHANGES FROM 10/16/07 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -7,223)
-8,315 -2,689 410 2,705 -5,634 -5,200 -7,913 -2,023 690

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
58.9 8.1 1.8 14.8 74.0 75.5 83.8 24.5 16.2

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 93)
39 19 10 18 21 62 46

dc CB 18:52 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
No conspiracy, no PPT. Just one hand washing the other. lol

In 2006 the Republicans faced a serious midterm election. If the Dems got control of Congress, people would get hauled up in front of commitees and embarassing questions would be asked. One of the thorny issues during that summer was the high price of gasoline...over $3 a gal.
So...for some reason (?) that summer, Goldman Sachs changed the component weightings of their very own Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. They dramatically lowered the weighting of Unlead Gasoline. Come the end of the third Quarter, fund managers who allocated funds using the GS Commod. Index had to sell off alot of Unleaded gas to get back in balance. You may remember that gas at the pump dropped something like a $1/gal in about 2 weeks.

Unfortunately, the Repubs were so hated that the Dems won anyway. Goldman, however, got to open a new branch in Washington...at the US Treasury. Go Hank go. :)

Mtl JP 18:51 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 18:37 / do u think Iranians are as dependantly reliant on carbo-fuels as NAmericans ?

Mtl JP 18:43 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
In the meantime... getting safer: seems this slide was stopped from entering the NA market based on chinese violation of human rice. very degrating.

USA Zeus 18:37 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:26 GMT October 26, 2007

Thx I agree. Will stay healthy and flush for the best medical care on the planet. Mitt Romney has good proposals to fix the cost issue via reforms i.e. removing middlemen and not adding layers in political and administrative cost. as for anyone on medicare- lord help 'em as we know how lousy socialistic medical practices (emphasis on practice).

The politicos doom and gloomers are coming. Guess the USD is due for a rally. I remember when those USD's were found in hoards by Saddam and his now head-less horsemen. Guess the USD is still the choice when in flight to safety.

PS- Anything in Iran blockading will be very short lived and will only hurt Iran. Their military might is that of mini mouse capacity- esp given the fact that they do not produce their own refined product.

Ok- Happy Day!

Halifax CB 18:26 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:07 GMT October 26, 2007
Cool, that means they are only down a bit over 60% from their 45$+ value in Feb :)

USA Zeus 18:26 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Well from that link in theory the PPT is just that, a theory- conspiracy theory perhaps. Still plenty of activity in area 51 etc too.
LOL

Mtl JP 18:26 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 13:56 Oct 25 / re Biggest problem ... medicare: is actualy no problem at all. Trust the Politicians (who want you to ignore it) that THEY will provide the fix for their socialized health service. I trust them too: to raise taxes, add on all sorts of user fees and cut benefits. stay healthy (if you can)

Halifax CB 18:21 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Van jv 17:54 GMT October 26, 2007
No fan of pure capitalism here (hey, I'm Canadian) - though it is funny that the greatest adherents to such an idea also are the ones who really need to get their butts bailed out by big gov't more often than not :)

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:13 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
I don't like to use the trading forum for political posts but I think this one does pertain strongly to trading ideas. I invite critique pls. Besides it's Fri, close to mkt close.

Geopoliticals-war IMVHO could stir up mkt jitter albeit hard core direction. Overall trend of shorting USD - to short much more: geopolitical/economic reasons. Very solid spt for USD/CHF now testing for 2nd time since Sept 22-29 as tensions rise w/ the 3 triggers: #1(USA-RUSSIA/IRAN), #2(IRAN-IRAQI KURDS) and #3(TURKEY-IRAQ KURDS/USA) rise to "trip pressure" where the trigger is pulled to beyond the stress limit & a pivot results. Oil sits in the crossfire, will soar w/ more M.E. war, USD will short further...XAU soars vs USD (naturallY). Bush & Co. add to triggers' sensitivity adding sanctions to Iran echo'd by UN. China edging toward more spt to Iran, Moscow ditto (it's Russia's nuke reactor project in Iran, remember). Russia vs Bush in missle shield standoff...someone must compromise yet none are. It all adds up to me as an approaching & serious pivot point: I expect to see USD/CHF (& all USD/XXX) continuing to short, XAU, oil, metals, grains (partly due to degrading climate) to long. Frankly EUR can also be caught in crossfire: dependant on commod/energy prices to make it's exports competitive. Commodity cncy's such as CAD will win (barring CB hikes). Commod user c'ncys will suffer in proportion to their dependance on said commods. Am maintaining my long term short USD/CHF yet not touching anything with EUR. I may be making a huge mistake but WTH. Frankly I wish I owned a gold mine & a wheat field. My coffee is up :^>

Another trigger: Bush vs Moscow insofaras Moscow is building Iran's nuke reactor. If Bush hits it, it will anger Moscow obviously when they see years of work go up in smoke..will have to maintain "tough guy" posture so I'm betting either Bush won't hit the reactor if he's smart. If he does...can be a pivot point for world war...depends on egos of leaders, power plays, parliaments/congresses. Nothing about this looks good. USD can tank of it's mainland is attacked/nuked because a contry's cncy is valued in the amount the military can protect shorlines & borders vs attack.

USA military honchos may soon have a pathetic situation in relatively peaceful n. Iraq if Turkey invades. Kurds expect USA to be on their side, so does the potential invader Turkey. USA can't do both meaning someone leaves USA's friend list. Iran elbowing Turkey it's already blown up it's share of Kurd rebels near it's border saying, "umm..USA, can't you clean up the mess in your venue?" trying to get Turkey to de-ally w/ USA. USA needs Turkey as staging area for n. Iraq ops. ooops. I see a possible Iraq meltdown as U.S. troops are being called up out of reserve, spreading thin, eh Bush? Next: the draft? This is a lose-lose situation for USA troops in Iraq & USA relations in M.E.. No matter what it does, it's "bad" to someone. If it does nothing then the Kurds & Turkey & Iraq's fledgling gov'mt will all 3 be playing tug of war (pun intended) with Bush as the rope.

~~~~Valdez~~~~

USA Zeus 18:07 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Make that 30%.
LOL

USA Zeus 18:03 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
So here we are and Countrywide is up 26% atm. Not sure what trend that is but not shabby.
LOL

Van jv 17:54 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:08
Plunge Protection Team--in the spirit of pure capitalism?
how about taxes and regulations--

madrid mm 17:53 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
for the week end 8-)

Men age faster 'because of Stone Age sex'

A study of the longevity of a range of creatures sheds light on prehistoric lifestyles, reports Roger Highfield
The reason that women outlive men by an average of around five years is due to sex, harems and violence in the Stone Age, according to a study published today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/10/17/scisex117.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

madrid mm 17:34 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
ref previous post
-
http://webexhibits.org/daylightsaving/b.html

madrid mm 17:33 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
When we change our clocks

Beginning in 2007, most of the United States begins Daylight Saving Time at 2:00 a.m. on the second Sunday in March and reverts to standard time on the first Sunday in November. In the U.S., each time zone switches at a different time.

In the European Union, Summer Time begins and ends at 1:00 a.m. Universal Time (Greenwich Mean Time). It begins the last Sunday in March and ends the last Sunday in October. In the EU, all time zones change at the same moment.

madrid mm 17:27 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:10 GMT October 26, 2007
Halifax CB 17:08 GMT October 26, 2007
thx

Geneva 17:20 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

this will kill the euro

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Putin denounces US missile shield By MIKE ECKEL, Associated Press Writer
27 minutes ago



MAFRA, Portugal - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday compared the U.S. proposal to build a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe to the Cuban missile crisis of the 1960s.

ADVERTISEMENT


"Analogous actions by the Soviet Union, when it deployed missiles in Cuba, prompted the 'Caribbean crisis,'" Putin said at a news conference at the end of a European Union-Russian summit in Portugal, using the Russian term for the Cuban missile crisis.

"Such a threat is being set up on our borders," he said.

At the same time, Putin suggested the tension was much lower that during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis because Russian-U.S. relations have moved on since the Cold War. He also said he believes the United States is listening to Moscow's concerns about its missile plans.

Putin said his relationship with President Bush helps solve problems in relations with the U.S., calling him a friend.

The U.S. plan would install a radar base in the Czech Republic and 10 interceptor missiles in Poland — both former Soviet satellites that are now NATO members. It is part of a wider missile shield involving defenses in California and Alaska which the United States says are to defend against any long-range missile attack from countries such as North Korea or Iran.

Russia strongly opposes the idea, saying Iran is decades away from developing missile technology that could threaten Europe or North America, and it says the U.S. bases will undermine Russia's own missile deterrent force.

Turning to his future, Putin said he would not assume presidential powers if he became prime minister after finishing his term in the spring.

"If someone thinks that I intend to move, let's say, into the government of the Russian Federation and transfer the fundamental powers there, that's not the case," he said at a news conference. "There will be no infringement on the powers of the president of the Russian Federation, at least while it depends on me."

The popular Putin is barred from seeking a third consecutive term in the March 2008 presidential election. But he suggested earlier this month that he could become prime minister after his term ends in May, leading some to speculate that the substantial powers now invested in the presidency might be transferred to the prime minister.

After repeating his insistence that he does not intend to change the constitution in order to run for a third term, Putin said he had not yet decided where and in what capacity he would work as former president. He is expected to remain an influential figure in Russia.

Putin will lead the ticket of the dominant United Russia party in December parliamentary elections. An overwhelming victory for the party could turn the legislature into a new power base for Putin and give him a claim to continued authority based on his popularity.

Putin and EU leaders put a positive spin on Friday's Portugal summit. Many observers had approached the meeting with low expectations, given deepening disputes between Moscow and the 27-nation union over issues such as energy, human rights and the Balkans.

Putin, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and other EU officials repeatedly characterized the talks as "open, frank and productive."

However, the two sides failed to sign a new cooperation agreement to replace an expiring one, and two minor deals — on drug trafficking and steel exports — were the only concrete results announced.

Topping the list of concerns for a growing number of European nations is Russian energy policy — the reliability of supplies and the intentions of state-run oil and gas companies. Russia already provides 30 percent of EU energy imports, including 44 percent of natural gas imports.

The state-controlled gas giant OAO Gazprom has recently moved to acquire assets in Europe and strike bilateral deals with some EU countries.

That has led the EU to consider new restrictions on non-EU companies owning majority stakes in gas pipelines or electricity power grids without additional agreements — much to the Russians' consternation.

Earlier, Putin tried to assure European leaders that Russian investment was not to be feared.

"When we hear in some countries phrases like, 'The Russians are coming with their scary money,' it sounds a bit funny," he said.

He said money flowing into Russian government coffers — largely from oil and gas exports — was being used to resolve domestic problems. And he noted that private foreign investors hold large amounts of shares in Gazprom.

Putin held talks Friday with Barroso and Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency, at an 18th-century baroque palace in Mafra, a small town about 30 miles north of Lisbon.

___

Halifax CB 17:10 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Here's a link for your edification :)
Wikipedia on the PPT

Halifax CB 17:08 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 17:04 GMT October 26, 2007
Plunge Protection Team

madrid mm 17:04 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
PPT ????????

dc CB 16:52 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Wees gonna go aftr them liars, dadgummit. Put em in the hoosegow.

Connecticut A.G. Blumenthal says subpoenas Moody's, S&P, Fitch - Reuters
Connecticut AG says issues subpoenas to three major debt rating agencies in antitrust probe - Reuters
Connecticut A.G. Blumenthal says probing anticompetitive activity among three major rating agencies - Reuters

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:49 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 16:26 GMT

lol, no point trying to convince conspiracists every downtick is being monitored and countered by the "PPT". They will believe what they want to.

dc CB 16:26 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
PPT. as mentioned earlier, Oct is the end of year for mutual funds. There's a whole lot of rebalancing going on here. As long as you see selling in the AM and buying in the late PM all is good. The PPT is not needed.

saloniko nk 16:14 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:07 GMT October 26, 2007

ab, if u see Gold close to 900$ next months, 88%$ will be a long term Buy..


nk

London Geronimo79 16:13 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Exit long usd/jpy, the pair trading below 114.07 and might target 114.78

Makassar Alimin 16:13 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
PPT might be lurking again, buying any dips into stock market closing to send stocks higher, there is no reason why they should not operate today just like past days, amazing how this game is played out really

hk ab 16:07 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
People exit the carry-profit and dump it into gold for the weekend.
They really start to "hate" USD now.

Hong Kong YH 16:01 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 15:33 GMT October 26, 2007

yep, it is strange, why DJI up, but JPY didn't weak? JPY is 114

Geneva 15:58 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 15:55 GMT October 26, 2007

For the noise you are making, The eur advance less then 100 pips, if we close here! I saw much biger move. And for the all month about the same. I think we are in a disterbution period.

saloniko nk 15:57 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Good Evening...

Welcome 1.4388 ,welcome 780$ /oz


:)
nk

LDN Mahmood 15:55 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 15:51 GMT // keep on hoping.

London Geronimo85 15:53 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Long usd/jpy at 114.07 for 114.35 stop 113.90

Geneva 15:51 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Next week will be the week of the dollar! I will be suprise to see anther week of losses, probably will stat weak and finish much higher.

hk ab 15:51 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
euro seems want closing above 1.44 like gold above 780....

USA Zeus 15:50 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
NYC ET 15:47 GMT October 26, 2007

Yes I will let the strategy do the talking. But I am amazed that you ask me not to respond when you somehow feel obligated to make your own.
Freight train cometh or not we will play it out as we have for years and years.

Good TimeZ!

NYC ET 15:48 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, you are apparently a counter puncher. Suggest let the strategy do the talking and others stop wasting time looking for holes in his logic. Both trend followers and counter punchers can make money in the same market. So do not feel the need to defend your approach, time will tell even though at this time you look like standing in front of a freight train.

jkt rick 15:45 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
even if puppy ben decreases rates next week, it will be with a very heavy heart. Oil is over $90. this is not just high, its scary high...the effect of oil staying over $80 for a long time has disastrous effects, much worse then dwindling home prices.

Philadelphia Caba 15:43 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
short eur/gbp, s/l above 7030, t/p 6990

dc CB 15:33 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Interesting that Us/Jy not really playing the "stoxs up carry back on" today. With all the positives had expected it to be above 114.50 by now.

Also this stat from my broker's page: 17.9 mln homes were empty at the end of Q3. This is up 7.8% from a year ago.

BUD PS 15:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:22 GMT October 26, 2007

trend and trust ;-) I opened my long on oct-15 @ 1.4180 ;-) no doubt I got worried on 22nd, but managed to restrain myself from closing the position...

hk ab 15:28 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
strangely I heard no complaints from EU nation at all when this euro keeps kicking the censored on the upside.... too quiet.

NYC NYC 3 15:27 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Bush, Paulsen and Bernake are fine people.

Crazed sentiment runs forex.

why does some frenchman want to buy US stks in jan 2000 at 83 cent euros and today he sells USD? gots me.

emotional reward>/

Philadelphia Caba 15:26 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:22 GMT
lol..that's often very truth...gt/gl!

Roja Rosa 15:25 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Bob has left a clue 2004 and archives of some familiar names is interesting lolzzzz

USA Zeus 15:22 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Right. The "trend" is your friend. Everyone seems to see it after the fact. When the market pulls back 2-3 figures depending on the pairs like it did a few days ago no one talks with such confidence. Only at the corners of extreme price is everyone on this forum right- usually at the exact wrong time.

Cheers!

Hong Kong YH 15:18 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USD is no hope. But DJI will higher and higher. The US Government deliberately devalues the USD in order to boost their economy and help their deficits. What they don't know is the devaluation of the USD will inevitabley increase inflation. Moreover, all money will get away from the US. (That is why theHong Kong stock market rises so much recently)

But all this things will happen after President Bush finish their current terms. So Bush, Paulsen and Bernake are all selfish people. They just handover the bomb to the people following them.

London Geronimo85 15:17 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Short eur/jpy at 164.25 for 163.89 stop 163.40
Since the pair come from overbought territories, a decrease to 163.50 is likely to happen

pittsburgh pa 15:17 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:02 GMT October 26, 2007

Im a conservative trader. I never go against the trend.

St. Annaland Bob 15:15 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 14:52 GMT October 26, 2007

happy day to you too & have great and happy weekend ... FX: I play the toll road game, what ever the direction the market takes, that makes them to pay me small fee for using the road I own ... is it so bad in the states?! MAYBE !!! ... but, Europe does not have it better.

BUD PS 15:11 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:02 GMT October 26, 2007

I like to keep things simple - trend is your friend... long, 4450 first target.

USA Zeus 15:02 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
pittsburgh pa 14:56 GMT October 26, 2007

Don't take this the wrong way but that seems like an interesting logic. Would it then be best to wait for new lows to reverse short?

Not saying that it won't go to 3.0 before 0.60 using DS-style logic but then again anything is possible.

Cheers!

pittsburgh pa 14:56 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 14:52 GMT October 26, 2007

Im with you. The eur/usd still making new highs. No reason to go short at all!

Mumbai NS 14:56 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Looking at aussy and trying to predict long term directions in other pairs is a dangerous proposition ......honestly we are now in a range trading mode as highs are not as of now creating new highs and sterling is subdued in its rally remember at 2.0650 we had euro at 1.38 and range trading from now on can create some strange crossovers ofcourse all this is imaginary as of now so trend is ur friend till it is abt to end take care nice w/e and remember some of the gurus and their followers are born with one sided view take care peace and gt

EU theEUROqueen 14:52 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 14:22 GMT October 26, 2007

happy day Bob..

07 must be the worset year in the usd history.. so we still have long way to the year end..dont be surprise if u u will see a 300 pips move on 1 day..stay long and relax..MAYBE Im wrong BUT keep long


happy trade

USA Zeus 14:50 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
U of M is one of the funniest of funnymentals imo.

Sciacca FD 14:43 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Typo;
All predictions including your own are eventually "correct"

Global-View GVI 14:40 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Van jv

GVI 14:00 GMT October 26, 2007
80.9 vs.82.0 expected

Sciacca FD 14:40 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Just a few observations to reflect on for the weekend from a lurker.
Strategy without action is a daydream / Action without strategy is a nightmare.
Recognise timing as the CRITICAL factor.Trade what you see,not what you think you see.The biggest enemy of any trader is his or her opinions about where the market is going,the next biggest is the opinion of friends or what you read in a forum or a report from a broker.
A couple of rules NOT to include in your trading plan;
If at first you don't succeed try and try again,
All predictions including your own are eventually.

Have a great weekend

L8

GENEVA DS 14:37 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Zeus

tks. I do myself some Elliottwaves and have the same than you, but a different interpretation gives another V wave to 1.7475 in EURUSD medium term.... somebody will have it right anyway... hopefully you and me.... (have myself some EURUSD puts.... but of course some EURUSD calls as well...).... tks... good weekend

Van jv 14:37 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
U of M?

HK Kevin 14:35 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:12 GMT, thank you for your insghts. However, my question is still not yet answer. Correct me if I am wrong, bullish/bearish outisde bar is seldom found in a continuation pattern of a weekly chart.

USA Zeus 14:30 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
One of my charts for EUR/USD is at the projection point of a wave 5 of 5 of 5 of 5.
Let's see if EW works...

Smiles!

GENEVA DS 14:27 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland

Yes , I do agree with this .... 1.5000 etc... BUT !!!! the talks about our Prechter crew of a top here, reminds me as well as his talks at 4500 DOW for a top .... we are still rising.... uupppss...

St. Annaland Bob 14:22 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:10 GMT October 26, 2007

the talks about 14600/15000 this year reminds me the talk about 13800 during 2004

GENEVA DS 14:12 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin...

take it for what it is worth to you. We had the AUDUSD breakout nearly 6 month ago in the long term when it broke above 80.00, this cup/handle monthly breakout should give in the next 6 month about a target of 1.1200 to 1.1800 .... so eventually that helps... but beware this aussie , any correction right now could go as far down as 89.50... good luck

GENEVA DS 14:10 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
St.Annaland...

where do think EURGBP might go to ? direction 69.80 next week yet again ? As it seems to me , that nearly everybody is in the Short EURUSD boat already... and eventually this boat is gonna sink early next week... i.e. EURUSD break of 1.4600 and then quick move to 1.5000 and beyond.... tks.

Rio Tinto Analistafx 14:09 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Its profit taking time?
;)

HK Kevin 14:08 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Looking at the weekly canderstick chart of AUD/USD , it is likely to form a bullish outside bar this week. Could any chart expert enlighten me what does it mean?

St. Annaland Bob 14:07 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

St. Annaland Bob 06:35 GMT October 26, 2007
traders at the high end of risk appetite, may go EUR/USD short when EUR/GBP will trade at 0.7015 area

USA Zeus 13:38 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:15 GMT October 26, 2007

Thx for that DC. Indeed it does look like 3Q was the capitulation for the lenders-smth I posted in the heat of the liquidity meltdown.

Happy Day!

USA Zeus 13:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD in 3 of 4 allocations ave 1.4357
GBP/USD in 2 of 4 allocations ave 2.0536

melbourne DC 13:15 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

DJ UPDATE: BEFORE THE BELL: Countrywide Up Sharply On 4Q Outlook
26 oct 2007 23:09 ausest
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC) rose 22% to $15.90 before the opening bell Friday after the mortgage lender forecast fourth-quarter earnings ahead of Wall Street expectations.

Countrywide swung to a third-quarter loss of $1.2 billion, or $2.85 a share, hurt by a $1.31 billion loss in its mortgage banking unit.

The company said it views the third quarter as an "earnings trough" and expects it will be profitable in the fourth quarter and in 2008.


p/s countrywide release was at 12gmt ... causing stock bounce.

NYC ET 13:14 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, at what point do you have "full allocation" for the eur/usd and where is the stop for the full position?

dc CB 13:13 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Truely remarkable in their prescience. The bottom must be in. lol.

Bear Stearns cuts Financial Sector to Market Underweight from Market Weight - Bloomberg

Melbourne Qindex 13:12 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USD(DX, NYBOT) : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is testing the supporting strength of the monthly cycle pivot center at 77.02. The weekly cycle charts suggest that speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 76.85 - 77.35. A projected supporting level is expected at 76.59 - 76.62.

FW CS 13:10 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Montana Tony 13:03 GMT October 26, 2007
Easy there, the Zeuster is at least posting his trades in real time for all to see. He has made many good calls in the past and maybe a few that didn't work but not every trader is always right.

Montana Tony 13:03 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, please let me who is your broker. I also want to have the same type of demo a/c like you have.

USA Zeus 12:54 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Added EUR/USD shorts 1.4382

FW CS 12:50 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:43 GMT October 26, 2007
I myself don't agree with Ed Soykota's statment on trends. THough in the end a trend is no good if you can't profit from it. And a long term trend is also no good if you are early.

hk ab 12:39 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
nt, if my memory serves me right, you mentioned a .92 aud target few weeks ago. Thank you.

Plovdiv Gotin 12:35 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
BUD PS 12:31 GMT October 26, 2007
Agreed

BUD PS 12:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 12:22 GMT October 26, 2007

there were guys shorting at around 1.4360. I think the 4400 is only a theoretical level. if not broken today, next week will. (I am long from 1.4260, but will most likely close before FED's decission - to risky to walk in w/ guns loaded...)

Plovdiv Gotin 12:22 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
E/$: if 1.4392/4402 not hold the road to 1.4552 is open.

dc CB 12:20 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
If CFC is really ok, remember its feared failure was one of the main reasons for all this Fed cutting, and stox rally now into next week......sort of puts the rate cut on hold (?). Cutting rates by another 50bps would be a bit of a "moral hazzard" - say what.

Lahore FM 12:18 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Andras i have got them live from cbot.

Hong Kong YH 12:17 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
From DailyFX: In typical Cable fashion, the pair broke through the top of the recent range this morning (2.0550) and traded to 2.0573 before reversing lower. The entire rally from 2.0426 looks corrective, indicating that the rally could be a diagonal. In fact, the entire rally from 1.9651 looks corrective as the waves overlap. Again, this reinforces what we have held for weeks, which is that everything from 2.0654 is a big correction. The 3rd wave (wave c) of the correction is about to begin and should be an impulse (fast decline), soa bearish bias is warranted against 2.0654

Pecs Andras 12:15 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
FM
Where do you see that?
I see Dow futures -20

dc CB 12:13 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
stox are really loving CFC earning report (Countrywide Financial).
Shorts OUCH!

Lahore FM 12:11 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
+45 now.

Lahore FM 12:10 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
dow futures.plus 25.

Melbourne Qindex 12:09 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Heading Towards 1.4418.

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is pulling towards 1.4461. The weekly cycle charts indicate the market is heading towards 1.4418.

melbourne DC 11:55 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
and anyway .. my us30 cfd has clear line 13,720.

melbourne DC 11:54 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Would be an idiot to create unneccesary stress ahead of the weekend by calling a turn ... but note audusd did not match earlier high, so may be a better setup for negative drivers than previous days..

Plovdiv Gotin 11:54 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
My R/S system says:if 470/80 hold and +503/20-->587/602. This scenario is possible if break 496, then 516/543...553. If not 440/25...408/394.GTay.

HK [email protected] 11:51 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
With this environment Eur/USD may reach tonight ~1.4470/90

Stockholm za 11:44 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

re...FWIW..
Always bear in mind and be conscious always, that support & resistance can never be a straight line or a given number x,xxxx but a band or zone of tolerance….

Mtl JP 11:43 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 11:36 / do you mean that the "has been" non-existent - according to Zeus' neighbour Ed Seykota - trend has come to end ?

FW CS 11:36 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Van Gecko
Great to see you again and still battling in the fx world. This has been an exceptional $ trend. Of course I have only been trading forex futures for 10 years so I am maybe just an intermediate and certainly not an expert.

Stockholm za 11:27 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

Tech… GBP/USD....4hr/50pip tracker…
Supported above 371.
Had a Channel top rejection at the high.
May have to revisit the 413 for expansion high.
In a basic neutral development phase... thus no progress this week as yet.
Happy trades...

Melbourne Qindex 11:23 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY: As shown in the distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart the market is pulling towards 105.36. This is in agreement with the weekly cycle charts which suggest that the market is going to tackle the range at 104.94 - 105.27.

Plovdiv Gotin 10:58 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Za/how do U see GBP/USD?TIA

Stockholm za 10:47 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

Philadelphia Caba 10:20 GMT >> EUR/GBP !

Gen dk 10:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Philadelphia Caba 10:20 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
any news on gbp?

Mtl JP 10:19 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:53 & UK Eddie 09:39 / v e r y E A S Y ...
1) right -click Tools on red bar above.
2) scroll down to Technical Forex Trading Tools and right-click Chart Points

It just might pay to to explore global-view pages.

Alternately, u may want to have a look at Trading Signals from Gen dk 07:29 for example.

London Geronimo85 10:11 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Long gbp/usd 2.530 , stop on new low, target .580

madrid mm 09:53 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Eddie 09:39 GMT October 26, 2007
here i believe they provide it somewhere but i do not remember where 8-D

London Geronimo100 09:45 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Long gbp/usd at 2.530 bid for 2.580 , stop 2.515

UK Eddie 09:45 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
I'm tired of sitting close to the pc

UK Eddie 09:41 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
London Geronimo100 09:39 GMT October 26, 2007

U mean Moving averages?
or........

UK Eddie 09:39 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:37 GMT October 26, 2007

where can i get good site for good
daily forecast

London Geronimo100 09:39 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Eddie 09:29 GMT October 26, 2007
It's a particular set of averages that I set together.It detects when a pair is overbought or oversold. I use a large and small time frames, when both are saturated, I take position in the opposite side, with an average stop loss at 20 pips.

madrid mm 09:37 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 09:31 GMT October 26, 2007

8-)

GENEVA DS 09:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Madrid...

I love this question... I would say between 1 Minute and 1 Month..... hahah...... have fun...

UK Eddie 09:29 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
London Geronimo100 08:57 GMT October 26, 2007

Where did yu got the forecast from?
I'll like to share wif yu

madrid mm 09:28 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 09:25 GMT October 26, 2007
define short term please 8-D

1 minute ?
1 hour ?
1 day ?
1 week ?...etc... 8-)

GENEVA DS 09:25 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
PRECHTER, CROOKS, KAPLAN, Rick Akermann..... and and and.... all calling for EURO Top... so may be this can stop the move short term.... but I prefer MAX mcKegg outlook for 1.75 EURUSD.... good luck

Toronto tn 09:21 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 23:05 GMT October 25, 2007
Selling eur/cad @ 3840/60 for a final thrust to 3700, stop at 85.

Bought back half @ 3790. Stop rest at cost.

London Geronimo100 08:57 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Eddie 08:51 GMT October 26, 2007
No, I'm not selling anything, I just want to share the forecasts of what I believe to be a good system. This market is huge, there is money for everyone and sharing good tips is good for my karma lol! This said, I won't feel responsible if you get ruined following those calls. So try on demo first.

London Geronimo159 08:54 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Long eur/jpy at 164.25, stop 164.05 for a break of 164.57
if 164.57 resists, then the stop is at break even. Prime target 164.97

UK Eddie 08:51 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
London Geronimo100 08:31 GMT October 26, 2007

Are yu selling the forecast to the room? lol

melbourne DC 08:48 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
During Asia , various Asian Cb intervene ... expect recylce to eurusd buying .

BUD PS 08:39 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
jkt rick 08:36 GMT October 26, 2007
add more short positions at 1.4370
-----
only after 1.44 holds would I consider shorting...

Alaska Moon 08:36 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
London Geronimo100 08:31 GMT October 26, 2007
No....It was a bank call that I was refering to.....
I have been trading live for 4 1/2 years, and have been stopped out plenty.... LOL
GT-GL
Moon

jkt rick 08:36 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
add more short positions at 1.4370

London Geronimo100 08:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 08:05 GMT October 26, 2007
That was me. so, it's a 45 pips loss on this since I shorted at 0.9090.
I'm testing my system in direct live.
since yesterday:
buy eur/usd at 1.4250 for 1.4310 done +60
buy aud/usd at 0.9020 for 0.9070 done +50
sell usd/chf at 1.1665 , busted -20
sell usd/cad at 0.9660 -15
buy aud/usd at 0.9060 for 0.9090 done 30
buy eur/usd at 1.43 for 1.4340 done 40
short aud at 0.9135 , -45
total 100 in 2 days
I'm confident enough to make calls with that system so, just open a demo account and have a go! the figure next to Geronimo are the pips done with those calls.
Have fun!

BUD PS 08:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 08:28 GMT October 26, 2007
Rumors of an emergency Fed rate cut remained in place, USD is no hope.
-------
everyone out there expects 25bps, 50bps would play a much nicer tune ;-)

Hong Kong YH 08:28 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Rumors of an emergency Fed rate cut remained in place, USD is no hope.

Melbourne Qindex 08:27 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD :  Resistance at 0.8811

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 0.8731. The current expected trading range is 0.8731 - 0.8917. The weekly cycle charts indicate that a projected supporting level is expected at 0.8601 - 0.8603 and a projected resistant level is located at 0.8798 - 0.8811.

Melbourne Qindex 08:22 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD: As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is going to tackle the upper barrier at 0.9134* // 0.9212. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 0.9219 and speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 0.9257.

madrid mm 08:16 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
It certainly does look like an interesting day ahead ....8-)

remember, HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY NOR A TACTIC.

madrid mm 08:14 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
OK i guess if euro/usd carry on like this, what is another billion or two US$ to Merrill Lynch and friends then ? 8-)

Alaska Moon 08:13 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 08:09 GMT October 26, 2007
Yes....LOL....I have plenty of stop loss experience ...
Moon

BUD PS 08:10 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Eddie 08:03 GMT October 26, 2007

I am noone, playing the chart & fundamentals fortune on my own ;-)

GENEVA DS 08:09 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Alaska... we all have stop losses in the market... this is a sign of stregth not of weakness in my view... I was stopped out in my whole life hundreds or thousands of times, but still trading... just bought some GBPCHF here SL 23850 for a run to 24200..... gl

UK Eddie 08:08 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

Alaska Moon 08:05 GMT October 26, 2007

Trading long @ the highest and short @ the lowest low is dangerous
man, but lets just see what he has for us

Melbourne Qindex 08:07 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/AUD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 2.2400.


Melbourne Qindex 05:26 GMT October 25, 2007
GBP/AUD : Heading Towards 2.2570

As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is under pressure when it is below the center of the monthly cycle projected series at 2.2774. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the monthly cycle pivot center at 2.2530. The weekly cycle projected series indicates that the market is heading towards 2.2570 and the market is negative when it is trading below 2.2400.

Alaska Moon 08:05 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Someone had a stop loss on AUD/US @ .9135....I just don't remember who.....
Moon

UK Eddie 08:03 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

BUD PS 07:58 GMT October 26, 2007
where did yu got yur forecast from? subscribed? Lets see how good yu are.

BUD PS 07:58 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Eddie 07:54 GMT October 26, 2007
---
sorry for typo:
short USD/CAD @ 9630 for 100pips, S/L 9670

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:56 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Eddie 07:19 GMT October 26, 2007
You may be right on that one, but so far the locals are not complaining. Even sub 4 GDP is acceptable as long as stability is preserved. Personally, I don't see the attraction in these 'flash in the pan' GDPs that go from -20 to 20 and then back to -20 in the course of a decade.

UK Eddie 07:54 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
BUD PS: are sure of what yu typed? check properly

UK Eddie 07:50 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH, do yu have any view on JPY?

BUD PS 07:50 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
shot USD/CAD @ 9630 for 100pips, S/L 9670

Melbourne Qindex 07:46 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
CHF/AUD :  As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 0.9466*. The market has potential to tackle the lower barrier at 0.9204 // 0.9256*. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is consolidating within the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.9334 - 0.9548 and it is likely that the market is going to tackle the supporting level at 0.9315.

Hong Kong YH 07:33 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Eddie 07:25 GMT October 26, 2007

JPY? don't think so, if stock markets no problem, then will carry trade again.

Gen dk 07:29 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sir Larry Vancouver 07:26 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Close correlation between Euro and Oil as they seem to be making their all time highs at the same time.

Saudi's buying EUR because the Fed has given up on the dollar?

UK Eddie 07:25 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
YH are you seeing that forecast on yen so soon?

Hong Kong YH 07:21 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:15 GMT October 26, 2007

no problem, China market is one way bet. only up & up & up.

UK Eddie 07:19 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading high on EU.? I think the US economy is not impressive this year.

madrid mm 07:15 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
China Will Probably Raise Rates After 11.5% Expansion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_rdOFgzFnLk&refer=home

madrid mm 07:12 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
IMHO we are living some intereting times....
new high oil, gold, euro/usd etc....

is it a case of
"To infinity, and beyond! " by Buzz in Toy Story (1995)
???
8-)

jkt rick 07:05 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
profit target is 1.4120

madrid mm 07:05 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
jkt rick 07:01 GMT October 26, 2007

...only 10 ? Amateur ....... 8-D

jkt rick 07:01 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
come let us all sell euro together at 1.4360 for a bumper profit to be made. sell 10 million euros at $1.4360.gl and gt

USA Zeus 06:47 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 06:42 GMT October 26, 2007
You bet! Those oil stocks and refiners are making it hand over fist!! Interestingly that man in Dallas T. Boone Pickens has been calling this 100 level all year. I scooped up a bunch when it dipped into the 50's but hedged against it here- ouch.

GT!

Lahore FM 06:47 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:40 GMT October 23, 2007
Lahore FM 04:25 GMT October 23, 2007
bought gold 754.60,stops later.
--
closed half at 759.80 for 5.20$.

==
closed all at 777.70 for 23.10$ in all.

St. Annaland Bob 06:42 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   

""...One more thing which might have some importance, tonight is full moon...""

Alaska Moon 06:42 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:35 GMT October 26, 2007
=======
Well, to me...$100.00 oil was just a pipe dream a couple of months ago, but now....It's not that far... It sure has helped our Marathon Oil stock !!!
Moon

GENEVA DS 06:39 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Parabolic rise in EURUSD, GBPUSD , GOLD and OIL to continue ? Very dangerous game to go against I guess... most probable outcome first to 1.80-2.00 in EURUSD before 1.00 again in next 9 month... in GOLD first 1500 before 3000 USD and OIL first 150 USD before 250.00 and CABLE first 3.00 before 1.00.... have some calls and puts on all these.... market will get wipped out completely on spot side , I guess... good luck to all...

USA Zeus 06:35 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Ok added shorts to EUR/USD @ 1.4361 and GBP/USD 2.0558
Oil is at 92.02!

St. Annaland Bob 06:35 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
traders at the high end of risk appetite, may go EUR/USD short when EUR/GBP will trade at 0.7015 area

madrid mm 06:33 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Blore RKG 06:28 GMT October 26, 2007
Alaska Moon 06:30 GMT October 26, 2007

I guess this is what he / she had in mind when he/she said " records are menat to be broken !"

8-O

madrid mm 06:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Blore RKG 06:28 GMT October 26, 2007
Thank you 8-)

Not anymore !!!! lol

Alaska Moon 06:30 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
It is a little higher now...LOL

USA Zeus 06:30 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Oil on a ripper! 91.94 now

Blore RKG 06:28 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:17 GMT October 26, 2007
is this correct ? All time high EURO/USD is 1.4348 ???

Yes mm - the single currency's high is indeed 1.4348

madrid mm 06:27 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Nothing...well almost nothing beats a friday for trading 8-)

London Geronimo159 06:23 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Short aud/usd at 0.9110 , stop 0.9135, large stop for excellent risk/reward ratio, target 100 pips.

madrid mm 06:17 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
is this correct ? All time high EURO/USD is 1.4348 ???

USA Zeus 06:15 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Crude oil is out to slaughter me today.
LOL

USA Zeus 06:15 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 03:28 GMT October 26, 2007

Yes- I think give or take a few figures. Never know for sure of course.
GT!

madrid mm 06:10 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
News Highlights

* Japan core CPI for Sept -0.1%y/y from -0.2%. Tokyo core CPI for October flat, 0.0% - in line with market.

* Overall nationwide CPI -0.2%y/y for September, Overall Tokyo October CPI +0.1%y/y

* Japan Govt says it will not incorporate new cheaper mobile phone fees into the new CPI.

* Japan IP for Sept -1.4%m/m, vs exp -1.3%m/m, from 3.5% in August.

* Econs Min Prof Hiroko Ota said earlier that end of deflation has been delayed, although it is in sight, as the situation for prices has not changed much from last month, after release CPI data.

* HKMA confirms intervention at 7.7500, reiterates commitment to HKD peg, though some rumuors that HKMA may lower HKD peg.

* NYMEX crude oil hit new highs $91.46, Brent Crude hit new highs $88.58 on rising tensions between US-Iran and supplies concerns.

* Gold prices hit new 28-year highs of $776.10 on oil, weaker USD.

* MoF Fukushiro Nukaga says Japan has not fully beaten deflation but is in process of moving out. Regrets arrest of 2 MoF officials today on charges of raping a woman in her apartment in February.

* Microsoft lifts profit outlook after reporting a stronger than expected 27% revenue rise, fastest since Q1 1999 to $13.36bln, post Q1 earning of $4.29b. Microsoft shares up >10% afterhours.

* US Defense Secretary Robert Gates characterised US military planning for a strike on Iran as "routine", when asked if US is planning for military action against Iran. - Reuters.

* Seems to be a new day of new record highs - with EUR seen on "target" to hit new highs above 1.4348, as NYMEX crude oil hit new highs of $91.46, Brent $88.58, Gold hit 28-year highs of $776.10, and AUD broke key 0.9100 handle to fresh 23-year highs of 0.9119.

* Could see fresh bouts of Cross/JPY, JPY carry trades as market seen switching to risk taking mode from risk aversion, with Microsoft (>10% after hours) seen leading US stocks - Dow, Nasdaq higher today- though markets will be cautious of any "Merrill-like" write-downs and any "AIG-like" write down rumours that hit the markets yesterday,and any rising tensions in Middle East between US and Iran.

Cross/JPY back in demand after soft Japan CPI, IP seen "delaying" BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY rose on back of strong Japanese mega-city banks, US investment houses buying, pushing it to day highs after early morning pre-CPI dip. USD/JPY supported by talks of Kampo at 113.80-90, hit 114.40 on JPY carry trades buying.

AUD/USD big mover- hitting fresh 23-yr highs 0.9119, powered by record high oil, 28-yr highs Gold, and AUD/JPY, JPY carry trades buying through 104, on expectation of RBA hike, while BOJ will stay.

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY higher, though Kiwi seen capped on back of AUD/NZD demand at 1.19, with funds looking for 1.24/1.25.

EUR edging to all time highs of 1.4349 again, but hearing offers from Russian, East Europeans, but talks of S Asians, India, Asian, China/ HK, M.E., sovereign amongst buyers on dips - given their USD buying intervention agst their local units. GBP, CAD, CHF, CNY looking bid.

Nikkei firmer today, +1.26% or 204.81pts at 16,488.98. JGBs lower, +0.030% at 1.610%.

madrid mm 06:09 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Singapore fs, thx the same 2 u 8-)

USA Zeus 06:05 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Decided the trade is worth the risk. Added oil shorts at 91.50 and moved stops to 92.77.

Happy Day

Ltn th 06:01 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:08
EURAUD Such loverly memories. Shades of 09/98?

BUD PS 05:43 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 04:07 GMT October 26, 2007

apparently a re-print of article from reuters from last week ;-)

I don't think it'll do any harm to quid. long 2.063 ;)

BUD PS 05:41 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
can anyone throw in 2 cents on aussie - where is it heading in the coming days? (long from 9090). cheers.

St. Annaland Bob 05:37 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 04:07 GMT October 26, 2007

long live the Queen, short GBP :-)

Singapore fs 05:04 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Hello madrid mm... Hope u enjoy riding the trend today. :D

madrid mm 04:55 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Hello FX Jedi 8-)

madrid mm 04:54 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
inflation in Japna ? Dream on 8-)
../.. "Recent food price increases have failed to boost inflation because they carry a low weight in the index and discounts of durable goods such as flat-panel televisions, personal computers and digital cameras more than offset the effect."../..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afc7qxBg5lqo&refer=home

van Gecko 04:10 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
hello FW CS.. hope you're fine.. thanks for sharing your views & your care.. I am fine, just not posting as much after 96 moons in GV & 180 moons in the market.. there's nothing wrong with good risk adjusted contra bets at/near major market levels as long as risk & exposures are managed properly.. fortune favors the disciplined brave..
On the other hand, cheering in hinsight, or getting the direction right with foresight does not make a better position or day trader if that thing between the ears is not right for this business.. euro can go up to the moon, but you are only barking up the wrong fx tree if one talk & trade with the same mindset like the transient majority..
gl





Melbourne Qindex 04:08 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD: Heading Towards 1.5517.

The monthly cycle projected series indicates that the market is going to challenge the the lower barrier at 1.5606 // 1.5711*. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.5884 - 1.5911. It is likely that the market will head for 1.5497 - 1.5517 if 1.5711 fails to hold.

Geneva 04:07 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
British Households Using Credit Cards to Pay Mortgages
October 25, 2007 | From theTrumpet.com
More and more Britons are spiraling into financial disaster, paying debts by using more debt.

In the past year, more than 1 million Britons have used their credit cards to pay for their housing costs, according to a report by the Daily Mail.

Shelter, a housing charity, found that 6 percent of respondents to its survey used credit cards to keep up with their rent or mortgage payments. The percentage was higher among 18-to-24-year-olds.

The high-risk trend could have financially dangerous repercussions. One housing advice service quoted by the Daily Mail warned that those who used credit card debt to pay housing expenses were falling into a “spiraling maze of debt” where their credit would eventually run out.

“For many people trying to keep a roof over their head, desperation is driving them to short-term, high-cost borrowing,” said Adam Sampson, Shelter’s chief executive. “Ordinary people are being forced to seek more risky and expensive ways to stave off the threat of eviction and repossession.”

“There is such pressure on people’s budgets that paying your mortgage or rent by credit card, then paying that card with another card, is becoming the norm for many people,” Stuart Freeman, of the Community Housing Advice Service, said.

Credit cards typically charge interest between 15 and 18 percent, and up to 40 percent for those with bad credit histories, according to Shelter. The most expensive mortgages for buyers with bad credit typically range from 11 to 12 percent.

Britain is suffering from symptoms similar to those in the U.S. housing meltdown. Lax lending practices are catching up with the UK housing market, and repossessions will mount as buyers begin to run out of options. One third of mortgage applications in the past six months have been turned down.

hk ab 03:28 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Is oilman still on the GVI side?

Zeus, is it the moment your so called l/t reversal yet?

USA BAY 03:23 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC,

Thanks a lot for the post. Learned something new. Appreciate it. gt/gl

austin mw 03:20 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
I was using that as an example.. I might add that I don't see the US falling into a recession.. It may have a few quarters of sub 2% growth but not a recession.

Brisbane Flip 03:16 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
MW it isn't even a halving of growth (Yet).
The US hasn't grown at 4% since the ninties. Official US GDP for the housing/consumption boom has been periodically retooled lower and lower. 2005 was +3.1%, 2006 +2.9% and White House last estimated 2007 to be 2.3% but that was before the sub-prime debacle.

Sydney ACC 03:11 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 02:02 GMT October 26, 2007
Sorry Mate missed your earlier post.
My intial target on AUD/USD remains at 0.9300, which with the momentum this pair has behind it should be seen next week. If we achieve that and say USD/JPY reaches 115.00+ then we will see the AUD/JPY reach thne 107.00 target area.
We are approaching post-float highs on the AUD/USD which ought to act to slow down the momentum. The post-float high is around 0.9650 which occurred over three trading days in mid March 1984. The float by the way took place in December 1983.
With interest differentials of 2 per cent at the short end, negotiations over the price of iron ore shipments to China expect to produce sizeable increases, firm soft commodity prices, continuing growth in China and the ever growing pesimistic outlook for the US and the USD all supporting the fundamental aspects for Aussie I expect we should see Aussie have a go at the post-float high before the end of year. If that is the case then we could see AUD/JPY tackle 110.00.
As always though remain alert.

Brisbane Flip 03:11 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
What world recession?? The US might go into recession but that doesn't mean the world has to follow suit. 10 years ago the US was 1/3 of Global GDP now it is 1/10. Globalization is more than a catchphrase. Asia and Europe are in a much better position and will undoubtably be shouldering more and more of the demand (consumption) responsibilties. Surely the Oil and commodity price appreciation (despite the US's ills) have been evidence that there is a new order to take into account.

austin mw 03:07 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 02:46 GMT October 26, 2007

Global recession? where do you see that? a recession by definition is 2 negative qtrs of gdp and i don't see that happening anywhere in the world.. a country that is growing at 4 % and slows to 2 % may feel like a recession but it is not..

Rio Tinto Analistafx 02:46 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 02:24 GMT October 26, 2007
Analysts in Australia are now talking about the possibility of two or even three RBA rate hikes in the months ahead

With a world recession its possible to rate hikes? I dont think so!
GT & GL

austin mw 02:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Americans Turn Negative on Economy, Expect Recession, Poll Says

By Matthew Benjamin
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Almost two-thirds of Americans say a recession is likely in the next year and a majority believes the economy is already faltering, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey.

Could make for a dismal shopping season in the next two months.

Philadelphia Caba 02:24 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
..Sentiment towards the AUD/USD is very bullish and buyers are expected to emerge on any dip while the market maintains the current mood. Analysts in Australia are now talking about the possibility of two or even three RBA rate hikes in the months ahead while the US market is looking for between 50 to 100 bps worth of easing from the Fed in the months ahead.
..(thomson)

FW CS 02:13 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 00:45 GMT October 26, 2007
I mentioned equities in particular but now that you mention it I suppose it has been awhile since the Euro has corrected 10%+ like 2005 I think from 1.36-1.16. But I remember back before 2004 the corrections were deeper in the Euro too then they are now not the 5 figure corrections we were getting but like 10 figures nice countertrends. I am just presenting info on this PPT that people talk about from credible sources. You decide - not trying to stir the pot. Food for thought.

Syd .. 02:07 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Forex investors will be watching for any suggestion from Gulf countries' policy makers that USD pegs could be axed when they meet this weekend to discuss Gulf monetary union, which continues to get postponed, says JPMorgan Chase Bank currency strategist Holly Huffman in investor note; Notes Saudi Arabia has repeatedly emphasized it has no plans near-term to change its FX regime. "Any change announced over the weekend would be a shock, and likely lead to at least knee-jerk USD selling, on fears that these reserve-rich countries would have more room to diversify holdings."

USA BAY 02:02 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC,

Hi, just posted a question earlier to you on aud/usd and aud/jpy, if you have the time and could you comment on it pls. tia

Syd .. 01:58 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
the world is actually going crackers $110 for oil remember when it was $10

Syd .. 01:57 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
thats true too

Sydney ACC 01:48 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 01:40 GMT October 26, 2007
They won't do anything until after the Olympics.

HK [email protected] 01:44 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 01:14 GMT October 26, 2007

If your Gov. wants they can bring down the price of oil and gold right now.

Ask Paulson what to do.
Everyone knows that recession demands less fuel and less gold, so this Gold and oil prices are just B.S of speculators market.
That what will continue happen when a speculator; a CEO of Goldman-Sachs is chosen to the position.

austin mw 01:44 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
with all the talk about the sanctions on Iran the most interesting thing to watch is will the Iranian govt. attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz.. if this happens then war is a certain and forget about 100 USD per barrel but look for 110 and up

Syd .. 01:40 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC good thinking - not sure if they will though may be just more talk from the market

Sydney ACC 01:37 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 23:51 GMT October 25, 2007
When it looks likely that the Chinese will move on the yuan probably the best trade would be to sell calls in every retail stock you can think of. Almost the entire range of product sold in the discount stores (Target, K-Mart, Big W) is made in China.

Syd .. 01:27 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Norway e.s 01:23 we should see it come back say from around 20 before another shot higher geting a bit toppy dont panick if your in under the figure its ranging around 88-91 area at the moment. good luck

Norway e.s 01:23 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd:01,06 gmt
Thank you wery much for the anser!I reali apresiat it! Gess I hawe to wait a litle whit my shorts.
Think its time for som sleep. Cheers!
GL/GT

USA Zeus 01:14 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 00:19 GMT October 26, 2007
If oil reaches a hundred/gold eight hundred what do you think the greenback will be worth?


Wouldn't it then be worth 1/100 and 1/800
respectively?

Syd .. 01:06 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Norway e.s 00:38 GMT that reads no dont short it

Rye, NY et 00:57 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
All the major markets; twenty-four hours a day...

Syd .. 00:57 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Japan Nukaga: Haven't Completely Overcome Deflation

Syd .. 00:55 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Japan Nukaga: Prices Continue To Be Flat Around 0%

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:49 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
FW CS //

tnx - really interesting - I've seen posts on PPT but thought it was more like MIB here..

gl & gt!

hk ab 00:48 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
this censored deflation looks really joking.....

With oil doubled a year, why not buying oil in censored to experience their so called "dropping CPI"......

Syd .. 00:46 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Look out for the tsunami, says Costello
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/look-out-for-the-tsunami-says-costello/2007/10/25/1192941243214.html

Bon Air VA Dennis 00:45 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 00:11 GMT

has EURUSD corrected 10% recently?

I rest my case.

FW CS 00:42 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
austin mw
I said more than 10% I think that Subprime drop was almost exactly 11% so I stand corrected but it sure did not close even close to that level.

Syd .. 00:40 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Norway e.s 00:38 now wouldnt short it here would buy on dips for now for higher, before the rate hike decision and take it from there up to the election think it will come off before that whatever is done on rates , cheers

Norway e.s 00:38 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd,
Hi are you shorting aud/usd at this lewels? Feels temting to mee but hawe been hustage in this pair befor so whod aprisiate your weuv,gl/gt

austin m 00:31 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 23:53 GMT October 25, 2007

not true CS... the Dow dropped 10 % in the august/september swoon from the hi

Syd .. 00:28 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON -- By imposing a broad set of financial restrictions on Iran, the Bush administration has set out to break down Tehran's elite military units and isolate its merchant class, all with an eye toward inducing change in the country.

The administration also appears to hope that, by striking such a tough stance, it will prod or even alarm allies into following suit in isolating Tehran.

Toronto MRC 00:19 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
If oil reaches a hundred/gold eight hundred what do you think the greenback will be worth?

Syd .. 00:14 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
JPMorgan still thinks there's near term risk of another China rate hike of at least 27 bps; "Risks are tilted towards a more aggressive move, as the authorities aim to correct negative real interest rates, especially in the face of the liquidity-driven surge in asset prices." Notes PBOC governor Zhou last week saying it did not rule out steeper or more frequent tightening moves. JPMorgan reiterates view that stronger CNY remains essential policy tool to address surge in liquidity inflows; "The pressure continues to build and the prevailing rhetoric onshore suggests this argument is gaining momentum within the Chinese government." Expects policy follow through to allow faster pace of CNY gains; says abrupt, drastic one-off revaluations remain very unlikely

FW CS 00:11 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:59 GMT October 25, 2007
Many thanks. Well not too much farther for your 800+ target in gold that sure didn't take long. The battle between paper assets and solid assets continues.

Syd .. 00:10 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
If oil reaches $100 dont think the Fed will cut rates any view

Syd .. 00:03 GMT October 26, 2007 Reply   
JPY may gain some support next week, says Nikko Citigroup currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. Impact of subprime mortgage market problems on financial institutions once again in focus; European financial institutions posting earnings next week. "Should earnings be bad and lead to a downturn in stock markets, the yen is likely to be bought against major currencies." Adds if U.S. payrolls data show a slowdown, this could again provide upward pressure to JPY through stock markets

 




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