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Forex Forum Archive for 10/28/2007

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USA Zeus 23:51 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
New gold contracts short 793.50

AZUSA 4x-ed 23:41 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Not a cut-and-dried plan and certainly not intended to compete with GVI John's little gems, but worth some consideration imvho...

USA Zeus 23:22 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok FUA 23:19 GMT October 28, 2007
FUA- Yes indeed.


pittsburgh pa 23:11 GMT October 28, 2007
Open st target for now. LT is a different story.

Bangkok FUA 23:19 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
zeus:
you still short euro?

pittsburgh pa 23:11 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:53 GMT October 28, 2007

Do you have a target?

Alaska Moon 23:10 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:07 GMT October 28, 2007
======
Thanks BC... My system don't make the most money, but it seems safe !! LOL..
On another note, I enjoyed your post on Tibet... I know very little of the history...
Thanks for your welcome input !!
Moon

USA Zeus 23:09 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
BUD PS 22:58 GMT October 28, 2007

PS- Thx. Well this is just one of many many thousands of trades I've taken over the last 14 yrs trading. It is all in perpective and the outcome of any trade matters none in the overall to me so it is what it is- a gain or loss. The important thing is trading with the odds based on a defined set of rules and discipline, money management and correct position sizing. In entering any given trade I anticipate making a profit otherwise if the odds are not there I don't take the trade. The outcome, while can't always be profitable, has been favorable in the vast overwhelming majority as the equity curve has been astonishingly parabolic over the years.

cheers and welcome to the club.

shanghai bc 23:07 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 20:41 GMT October 28, 2007

Great..Real pro indeed..Hats off..It is ok to leave some money on the table..One cannot win them all:)..

BUD PS 22:58 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:53 GMT October 28, 2007

Zeus, I envy your courage (I don't have the guts to play the ball that hard). I plan to off-load my only 1 long lot at 1.45+...

saopaulo cg 22:54 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
thank you AL

USA Zeus 22:53 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Well here we are. Just shorted EUR/USD 1.4412.
They'll talk "trend" but the only trend that matters is that of your account equity- not price squiggles on any single trade (esp in hindsight)

S/L set 1.4537


Happy Week!

Denver AL 22:50 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 22:19 GMT October 28
ECZ07 Open 1.4428 H 1.4438 L 1.4416 Last 1.4424 add 12 to the left hand side of the spot to know where the futures is for the moment

saopaulo cg 22:39 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
thank you PS

BUD PS 22:34 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 22:19 GMT October 28, 2007

http://www.timeanddate.com/

London C 22:32 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
morning ,evening all!

anyone out there buying dollars yet???

saopaulo cg 22:19 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
thank you mw. Do you have the highest price on globex for dec 07 eurusd? 7.20 CST is what time GMT?

austin mw 22:15 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 21:47 GMT October 28, 2007

on globex dec 07 trading .008799.. floor trading starts 7:20 a.m. CST

saopaulo cg 21:56 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
thank you as always FM. So it is not open yet ? just to know because if it was open i have already been hit in my stop loss in USD/JPY. If it is not open yet, i have a chance in the next hour. TIA

Lahore FM 21:55 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
can be an interesting day today.out for now!

Lahore FM 21:52 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
cg,around tokyo open,and regular imm session at us open.ask Zeus he will detail it for you.

saopaulo cg 21:47 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
hi, can someone help me and tell me at what time the CBOT opens to trade currencies futures? TIA ang good luck to all.

London NYAM 21:38 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
FM//Always a pleasure. But for me the USDJPY chart indicates a set up for sub 112.00 is next and the EURUSD 1.4500+ probably around 1.4700. I feel that this is not really directly about carry (this week/month), but about the dollar. So the place to play is in the majors vs usd except vs Yen which will be about risk.
Good luck all and salut FM.

Lahore FM 21:24 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 21:11 GMT October 28, 2007
ready for both sides RF,of course it is the current price at any given time that can be traded.it is fine with me if market makes an about turn.

isr jweb 21:17 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
hk and all, could be your right, b ut i must say that ive been following fm quite long, hes dead right. (and i havent listened and been shot)

HK [email protected] 21:11 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:04 GMT October 28, 2007

All that make sense, but the only problem is that most of the forecasts I read, see the JPY victimized by the carry trade in the near future, and the triangle on the daily may resolve as a reversal pattern.

Any sudden due correction in this overloaded USD shorts situation may yield the reverse.

Lahore FM 21:04 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Nyam dear,simple daily chart analysis for dow shows continuation.how it will exactly come about is something fundamentalists will have to work.could be actions of the fed or future numbers.let us see!

Toronto MRC 21:00 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Little drop in the dollars on the open.

London NYAM 20:56 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:04//Ooh Lahore. Il take that prediction on. The highs are in for a few YEARS in the US equity market certainly in dollar terms.
Im not sure how you came up with those numbers, but I would be interested.
The carry may not be over, but i think the two phenomena will have different drivers.
in any case always said with all due respect and with the cautionary note that i wont trade on those time frames anyway.

BUD PS 20:55 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 20:41 GMT October 28, 2007

in fact, I am only a beginner who only recently managed to break even - I don't trade large volumes and have fairly tight stop-losses. I hope to develop the guts to go long large volume with wide or no S/L ;)

Lahore FM 20:49 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 20:46 GMT October 28, 2007
lolzzz.....236.20 might be a good hint.

isr jweb 20:46 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
fm. when will i know? 235-236-237? or when its over?...

Alaska Moon 20:41 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
BUD PS 20:34 GMT October 28, 2007
=======
Yes... I agree. Up until a couple of weeks ago, I was long EUR/US for the previous 4 months. Scaling in and out and
allways long. When it reached this level, my model says no trade, so I have been flat on it for nearly 2 weeks and will not trade it until I see a change...
Probably not the best way to go, but it is safe... LOL
Moon

Lahore FM 20:39 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
jweb,240 is a possibility.let us see how jpy reacts over the day.we might have gbpjpy follow eurjy and audjpy soon.

BUD PS 20:34 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 19:59 GMT October 28, 2007

let's wait for his view on 4420. on friday he was mentioning he still had to load one fourth of eur/usd shorts...

he might see behind the corner, I simply dont so I only follow my friend called 'trend'...

isr jweb 20:31 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
lahore gbp/jpy. you are the expert. (i learnt it the hard way), which way are we going, up up up 240 and more?

Berlin MK 20:19 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Lahore : I just think

Lahore FM 20:04 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Us stock market is ready for figures between 14500 and 15000 heading into the year end.this spells jpy weakness and further losses for USD on back of carry trades re-wind.

Alaska Moon 19:59 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
BUD PS 19:42 GMT October 28, 2007
Rio Tinto Analistafx 19:29 GMT October 28, 2007

zeus won't be much excited then he gets to his screen
=======
I have read his post for a long time...I think he has deep pockets and will use this price to Sell EUR/US again....
I don't trade a pair in either direction when it is this high, but he does.....
Moon

Tokyo 19:59 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Zeus certainly won't be excited FX.

BUD PS 19:42 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 19:29 GMT October 28, 2007

zeus won't be much excited then he gets to his screen...

Rio Tinto Analistafx 19:29 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Now eur/usd 1.4420...

BUD PS 19:05 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 18:50 GMT October 28, 2007

never p*ss against the wind... ;-) institutionals are USD bearish..
http://www.pfxglobal.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=616
http://www.pfxglobal.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=636
http://www.pfxglobal.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=640

Alaska Moon 19:01 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 18:50 GMT October 28, 2007
=========
Well.....we have to keep in mind the old and true saying....
"When everybody gets on one side of the boat, the boat turns over" LOL
Moon

isr jweb 18:50 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
from anger all i wanna do is take 10 million and buy any silly soppy currency from euro to some chilian/korean/chinese/russian currency, coz all im seeing is that. one way system.

FF-USA JC 17:28 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 17:10 GMT October 28, 2007

Oh Yes......But they are behind the scenes..I myself am bullish USD.....but the tape never lies.....we will see what it has to tell us this week....

isr jweb 17:10 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
are there any dollar bulls left in the universe?

Perth WR 15:45 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 03:14 GMT October 27, 2007

you are right, with jpy crosses look set for much higher prices next week I also expect DJI to target recent high at least, this should push HSI to what 31800 perhaps?

London NYAM 13:04 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
From fxstreet:
The Week Ahead

It is a huge week for the greenback. Markets are aggressively increasing the odds of a rate 25bps on Oct 31 after terribly bad housing data in the past two weeks, with interest rates implying over 90% chance now. It's believed that Fed won't surprise the markets like what it did in Sep and will opt for 25bps cut instead of 50bps. Focus will indeed be on how much more will Fed need to cut and the accompanying statement will provide some clues. Also, it's believed that effect of the subprime problem and housing market downturn on the overall economy is limited. The Q3 GDP data to be released before FOMC will need to meet market's expectation of 3.1% growth to validate this view. Then, focus will turn to Friday's job report which is expected to show 88k growth in non-farm payrolls and unchanged unemployment rate at 4.7%. Market's expectation for further rate cut could drastically change after these events.

Other than that, ADP employment will be eyed as a preview to NFP. Details of the ISM manufacturing report will be looked into, in particular on price and employment. Sep core PCE deflator is expected to remain tame at 1.8% yoy. Other important data from US include Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, construction spending, , pending home sales and factory orders.

Based on current inflation outlook BoJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% next week. The yen will continue to be driven by risk aversion and another sharp fall could be seen should the yen complete recent short term consolidation. Also, yen's carry trade unwinding will continue to be a main risk of other currencies' rally against dollar. Other data from Japan include retail sales, unemployment rate, household spending, Manufacturing PMI, construction orders and housing starts.

From Eurozone, retail sales and unemployment rate in Germany, Eurozone unemployment rate, economic sentiment and PMI manufacturing will be released. UK nationwide house price, Gfk consumer confidence as well as manufacturing and construction PMI will be featured. From Switzerland, focus will be on KOF leading indicator and CPI.

Commodity currencies will continue to be driven by strength in oil and gold prices. Canadian dollar will also be sensitive to the release of Aug GDP. Australia retail sales and trade balance as well as New Zealand trade balance will be eyed too.

GENEVA DS 12:21 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:00 GMT October 27, 2007
Alaska Moon 19:43 GMT October 26, 2007


Hi guys
was quite surprised to read these comments about talking the book. As far as I know, we are all free to write and do not first to ask somebody else if we are allowed to.... It is wonderful in this forum to have people, WHO HAVE THE GUTS to speak about their positions. We all then have to learn, which information suits our trading style, because VERY OBVIOUSLY not all are speaking from the same time frame and that is SUPER... And if you think , one writer is specifically always completely wrong, then take ADVANTAGE of that one and use it as your barometer... I think , we all had to learn in our careers , what we can use for good and what we can use for contrarian... I think , this is the WHOLE SECRET about this wonderful profession ...SPECULATOR.... continue to have fun reading good and bad comments in this forum... I LIKE IT !!! Thanks to the creators of it... and keep going.. wonderful W/E

BUD PS 09:34 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 19:37 GMT October 26, 2007

interesting... I am using the data slightly pre-chewed
http://www.pfxglobal.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=639

this shows me that institutional guys are still in favour of CAD strength. do I get something wrong?

AZUSA 4x-ed 05:26 GMT October 28, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 13:54 GMT October 27, 2007
Ryan Sweet – “In his first speech on monetary policy and the outlook since taking the helm at the Chicago Fed, Charles Evans struck a hawkish note. His comments focused on inflation more than other recent Fed speeches, acknowledging some positive signs in recent data but stressing that the Fed should respond to any circumstances that “threaten the inflation outlook.” The Fed cannot be lax on inflation, he said, adding he would view any rise in inflation expectations as a “serious concern.”

Evans, a voting member of the FOMC, expects growth to be soft this fall before moving above 2.5% annualized and closer to potential later in 2008. Evans was generally more upbeat on the outlook than some his colleagues have been recently; outside of housing, he believes the economy is “moving forward.” Also, he said incoming data on the real economy since the last FOMC meeting are consistent with the Fed’s baseline forecast, but events could occur that would force the Fed to increase its growth projection. This suggests Evans may not believe additional rate cuts are needed to steer the economy away from a recession.

While markets will focus on his hawkish inflation view and cautiously optimistic growth outlook, another part of Evans' speech caught our attention. He discussed the importance of determining where policy stands compared to the neutral interest rate, and hinted at his idea of what that neutral rate is. Prior to the August turmoil in financial markets, he said, he believed the 5.25% Fed funds rate was “probably a bit” above neutral. This suggests that the 50-basis-point cut in September to 4.75% brought the Fed funds target closer to what he feels is neutral. Another rate cut could bring the rate into accommodative territory, in his view, which may make Evans concerned about fanning inflation.

 




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